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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Protecting Our Democracy?
Remember the Supreme Court cases on prorogation or Article 50? How irrelevant they seem if, as polls indicate, the Tories get a majority. With 7 days to go, can there be a better time to wheel out Wilson’s dictum about a week being a long time in politics? There cannot. Consider it duly wheeled out.
Comments
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I will add this at the same time
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1202523613062213632
Democracy only works if scrutiny is enforced.0 -
It's easy for cheerleaders to say this fear is ridiculous or that Johnson was right every time and so it doesn't count, but I really feel this article articulates a very real threat. If parties feel it is legitimate to change the rules of the game to try and win then that's a very difficult genie to put back in the bottle. Tory tinkering would invite Labour tinkering if they win, and we've seen from the US that the country can quickly become ungovernable in any productive sense.1
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@Philip_Thompson FPT
Thanks you for your kind and thoughtful little post. Like you, I have personal reasons for finding it especially odious but let's no go there on this sunny morning. We can shake hands on our hostility to AS and enjoy the rest of the day.0 -
Pleased to see the collapsing thread comments feature to have been restored.3
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Morning all
Con gain Annunziata Rees-Mogg1 -
Tom Newton Dunn
Annunziata Rees-Mogg has resigned from the Breixt Party to say vote Tory, Nigel Farage conforms. So Jacob has been busy after all.0 -
Nigel Farage conforms. He always did.Big_G_NorthWales said:Tom Newton Dunn
Annunziata Rees-Mogg has resigned from the Breixt Party to say vote Tory, Nigel Farage conforms. So Jacob has been busy after all.0 -
4 Brexit MEPs quit to back Boris2
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Boris is live on BBC tomorrow v Corbyneek said:I will add this at the same time
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1202523613062213632
Democracy only works if scrutiny is enforced.
Democracy and scrutiny on live tv
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The Supreme Court acted in the prorogation case to make Parliament sovereign. Parliament will still be sovereign after the election, and the Supreme Court was established in 2009.
It's not some immutable law of God that it remains in its present form forever.0 -
If Boris sidelines Parliament and gives ultimate power to the executive then the UK's history as a democracy ends and we begin our first dictatorship in 350 years.
The only laugh will be when the Tories lose a future election and then complain about the sweeping powers they granted to a Labour government.0 -
The best article I have read on this site, and the clearest explanation I have seen for why today's Conservative Party is nothing to do with the Conservative Party of the past that we could respect even if we voted for others. The mutterings of Johnson and his band of cronies reminds me far more of Victor Orban than of serious Conservative politicians, including Thatcher and Major.1
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eek said:
I will add this at the same time
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1202523613062213632
Democracy only works if scrutiny is enforced.
I can't help but feel this is sour grapes from Labour supporters after their man was humiliated by Andrew Neil.
It was Corbyn's choice to be interviewed just as Boris has chosen to be interviewed countless times elsewhere.
And to claim only a sit down with AN will provide proper scrutiny over an election cycle is laughably childish.
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If Boris Brexits us then we just delay No Deal a few months, possibly a couple of years.0
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Moves by Brexit members today to the tories must be the precursor to Farage instructing his party to vote for Boris1
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Thank you Peter, that was kind and thoughtful yourself. That's a good idea.:)Peter_the_Punter said:@Philip_Thompson FPT
Thanks you for your kind and thoughtful little post. Like you, I have personal reasons for finding it especially odious but let's no go there on this sunny morning. We can shake hands on our hostility to AS and enjoy the rest of the day.0 -
Conservative Overall Majority now below 1.4 again (1.39) on Betfair.
Is there anyway to see the absolute lowest figures on this market in the last month or so? I remember seeing 1.37, but nothing lower.0 -
That is just ridiculousalb1on said:The best article I have read on this site, and the clearest explanation I have seen for why today's Conservative Party is nothing to do with the Conservative Party of the past that we could respect even if we voted for others. The mutterings of Johnson and his band of cronies reminds me far more of Victor Orban than of serious Conservative politicians, including Thatcher and Major.
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At the end of the day Boris didnt need to do AN, Jezza felt he did (but possibly shouldnt have). It is very different to running away from a debate. Boris has done plenty of interviews and debates and I suspect the majority of the public either don't know AN or have no idea his reputation as an interviewer is streets ahead of the guys like Marr and Peston that they see on the news.SunnyJim said:eek said:I will add this at the same time
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1202523613062213632
Democracy only works if scrutiny is enforced.
I can't help but feel this is sour grapes from Labour supporters after their man was humiliated by Andrew Neil.
It was Corbyn's choice to be interviewed just as Boris has chosen to be interviewed countless times elsewhere.
And to claim only a sit down with AN will provide proper scrutiny over an election cycle is laughably childish.0 -
Hmmm...i'm not so sure.Big_G_NorthWales said:Moves by Brexit members today to the tories must be the precursor to Farage instructing his party to vote for Boris
If that was the plan Farage would have trailed the 'huge announcement' to ensure he had the spotlight.0 -
I think it depends on Boris majority.Beibheirli_C said:If Boris Brexits us then we just delay No Deal a few months, possibly a couple of years.
The larger the majority the more room for him to compromise to get a deal0 -
Yes, something like this should happen. Or if this is contra Ofcom something similar but allowable. Do it, Beeb. Your reputation depends on it.eek said:I will add this at the same time.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1202523613062213632
Democracy only works if scrutiny is enforced.1 -
I got on NOM at 4.0 and cashed out at 3.05.JamesP said:Conservative Overall Majority now below 1.4 again (1.39) on Betfair.
Is there anyway to see the absolute lowest figures on this market in the last month or so? I remember seeing 1.37, but nothing lower.
Only bets I now have is on Skinner holding Bolsover at 5/4 and Toby holding Chesterfield at 1/30 -
The issue here is that the BBC weren't ruthless enough as no-one sane would willingly do an interview with Andrew Neil.Brom said:
At the end of the day Boris didnt need to do AN, Jezza felt he did (but possibly shouldnt have). It is very different to running away from a debate. Boris has done plenty of interviews and debates and I suspect the majority of the public either don't know AN or have no idea his reputation as an interviewer is streets ahead of the guys like Marr and Peston that they see on the news.SunnyJim said:eek said:I will add this at the same time
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1202523613062213632
Democracy only works if scrutiny is enforced.
I can't help but feel this is sour grapes from Labour supporters after their man was humiliated by Andrew Neil.
It was Corbyn's choice to be interviewed just as Boris has chosen to be interviewed countless times elsewhere.
And to claim only a sit down with AN will provide proper scrutiny over an election cycle is laughably childish.
Equally it's highly unlikely you would gain anything by attending so in the same way I said it was pointless for a Tory candidate to appear at an climate change hustings (their time would be more productively spent elsewhere) it's equally true here.0 -
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No, it is on point. The current Conservative party is not the party from a few years ago. It has become the Nasty Party again. With nobs on....Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is just ridiculousalb1on said:The best article I have read on this site, and the clearest explanation I have seen for why today's Conservative Party is nothing to do with the Conservative Party of the past that we could respect even if we voted for others. The mutterings of Johnson and his band of cronies reminds me far more of Victor Orban than of serious Conservative politicians, including Thatcher and Major.
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I am sure it was not planned but if his party is deserting him it is a way to save faceSunnyJim said:
Hmmm...i'm not so sure.Big_G_NorthWales said:Moves by Brexit members today to the tories must be the precursor to Farage instructing his party to vote for Boris
If that was the plan Farage would have trailed the 'huge announcement' to ensure he had the spotlight.0 -
The remaining Brexit party voters are either ex Labour leavers who can't bear to vote for the Tories, or VERY politically confused/naive people so it wouldn't make much difference anyway.SunnyJim said:
Hmmm...i'm not so sure.Big_G_NorthWales said:Moves by Brexit members today to the tories must be the precursor to Farage instructing his party to vote for Boris
If that was the plan Farage would have trailed the 'huge announcement' to ensure he had the spotlight.0 -
No. It is ridiculous to believe that the likes of Baker and Francois would have ever got onto the candidates list under Thatcher. And Patel would have been instantly suspended and deselected for her treachery in Tel Aviv rather than being rewarded as with Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is just ridiculousalb1on said:The best article I have read on this site, and the clearest explanation I have seen for why today's Conservative Party is nothing to do with the Conservative Party of the past that we could respect even if we voted for others. The mutterings of Johnson and his band of cronies reminds me far more of Victor Orban than of serious Conservative politicians, including Thatcher and Major.
You may dislike the truth, but it is that the willingness of the current crop of Conservatives to bend any rule, including that of the law, for their own ends that is just as dangerous as the fanaticism of large parts of Labour (and their willingness to ignore the law and treaty obligations, as with their nationalisation proposals). When the law becomes dispensable, so do the people.4 -
Sour grapes. This is politics.kinabalu said:
Yes, something like this should happen. Or if this is contra Ofcom something similar but allowable. Do it, Beeb. Your reputation depends on it.eek said:I will add this at the same time.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1202523613062213632
Democracy only works if scrutiny is enforced.
When Cameron was PM, Andrew Neil used to joke about the fact no party leader wanted to be interviewed by him despite him offering himself for interviews. Just because Corbyn chose to drink from a poisoned chalice doesn't mean anybody else has to do so.0 -
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It's fortunate that the voters are going to have a chance to judge the fitness for office of the likes of Patel, Francois and Baker in just 7 days from now.alb1on said:
No. It is ridiculous to believe that the likes of Baker and Francois would have ever got onto the candidates list under Thatcher. And Patel would have been instantly suspended and deselected for her treachery in Tel Aviv rather than being rewarded as with Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is just ridiculousalb1on said:The best article I have read on this site, and the clearest explanation I have seen for why today's Conservative Party is nothing to do with the Conservative Party of the past that we could respect even if we voted for others. The mutterings of Johnson and his band of cronies reminds me far more of Victor Orban than of serious Conservative politicians, including Thatcher and Major.
You may dislike the truth, but it is that the willingness of the current crop of Conservatives to bend any rule, including that of the law, for their own ends is just as dangerous as the fanaticism of large parts of Labour (and their willingness to ignore the law and treaty obligations, as with their nationalisation proposals. When the law becomes dispensable, so do the people.2 -
Good header. This area is not 'sexy' but it is crucial. When we talk about the need to invest in and improve our national infrastructure we should remember that the justice system, high to low, constitutional, civil, criminal, is one of the most important elements of that. Perhaps the most important. Trust "Boris" with it? One giggles nervously.0
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In your opinion. But what's that worth?Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is just ridiculousalb1on said:The best article I have read on this site, and the clearest explanation I have seen for why today's Conservative Party is nothing to do with the Conservative Party of the past that we could respect even if we voted for others. The mutterings of Johnson and his band of cronies reminds me far more of Victor Orban than of serious Conservative politicians, including Thatcher and Major.
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I`m on Tories in Bolsover at 5/4. Do you have particular insight into that consitituency?bigjohnowls said:
I got on NOM at 4.0 and cashed out at 3.05.JamesP said:Conservative Overall Majority now below 1.4 again (1.39) on Betfair.
Is there anyway to see the absolute lowest figures on this market in the last month or so? I remember seeing 1.37, but nothing lower.
Only bets I now have is on Skinner holding Bolsover at 5/4 and Toby holding Chesterfield at 1/30 -
I fear both Boris and Corbyn and I do not delude myself that Swinson could run a bath, never mind a govt.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think it depends on Boris majority.Beibheirli_C said:If Boris Brexits us then we just delay No Deal a few months, possibly a couple of years.
The larger the majority the more room for him to compromise to get a deal
Two cultists and a lightweight....
I am hoping for a Boris OR Corbyn minority govt so we can limit the damage from either of these fools.0 -
Francois yes - but Baker?alb1on said:
No. It is ridiculous to believe that the likes of Baker and Francois would have ever got onto the candidates list under Thatcher. And Patel would have been instantly suspended and deselected for her treachery in Tel Aviv rather than being rewarded as with Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is just ridiculousalb1on said:The best article I have read on this site, and the clearest explanation I have seen for why today's Conservative Party is nothing to do with the Conservative Party of the past that we could respect even if we voted for others. The mutterings of Johnson and his band of cronies reminds me far more of Victor Orban than of serious Conservative politicians, including Thatcher and Major.
You may dislike the truth, but it is that the willingness of the current crop of Conservatives to bend any rule, including that of the law, for their own ends that is just as dangerous as the fanaticism of large parts of Labour (and their willingness to ignore the law and treaty obligations, as with their nationalisation proposals). When the law becomes dispensable, so do the people.0 -
The other of side of that argument is "Could it be that Baker, Francois and Patel are the best candidates available?" - as most people have found easier and more pleasant ways to earn a living.alb1on said:
No. It is ridiculous to believe that the likes of Baker and Francois would have ever got onto the candidates list under Thatcher. And Patel would have been instantly suspended and deselected for her treachery in Tel Aviv rather than being rewarded as with Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is just ridiculousalb1on said:The best article I have read on this site, and the clearest explanation I have seen for why today's Conservative Party is nothing to do with the Conservative Party of the past that we could respect even if we voted for others. The mutterings of Johnson and his band of cronies reminds me far more of Victor Orban than of serious Conservative politicians, including Thatcher and Major.
You may dislike the truth, but it is that the willingness of the current crop of Conservatives to bend any rule, including that of the law, for their own ends is just as dangerous as the fanaticism of large parts of Labour (and their willingness to ignore the law and treaty obligations, as with their nationalisation proposals. When the law becomes dispensable, so do the people.
Why would anyone with multiple options go into Politics in this day and age. The amount of grief Social media and 24 hours has created means it's a completely thankless and even dangerous job.1 -
I found it sexy.kinabalu said:Good header. This area is not 'sexy' but it is crucial. When we talk about the need to invest in and improve our national infrastructure we should remember that the justice system, high to low, constitutional, civil, criminal, is one of the most important elements of that. Perhaps the most important. Trust "Boris" with it? One giggles nervously.
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If Boris had been in Thatcher's cabinet he would have been dripping wet.Beibheirli_C said:
No, it is on point. The current Conservative party is not the party from a few years ago. It has become the Nasty Party again. With nobs on....
Once Brexit is confirmed then the hysterical haze that fogs brains on both sides of the argument might clear and reveal a Conservative government that will be very much in the one-nation mould.
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It's projection. When Magic Grandpa does not sweep all before him it will be because Boris didn't do Neil - hence its the BBC's fault and there should be an enquiry......bit like blaming a bus for a referendum loss...Philip_Thompson said:
Sour grapes. This is politics.kinabalu said:
Yes, something like this should happen. Or if this is contra Ofcom something similar but allowable. Do it, Beeb. Your reputation depends on it.eek said:I will add this at the same time.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1202523613062213632
Democracy only works if scrutiny is enforced.
When Cameron was PM, Andrew Neil used to joke about the fact no party leader wanted to be interviewed by him despite him offering himself for interviews. Just because Corbyn chose to drink from a poisoned chalice doesn't mean anybody else has to do so.4 -
I reject that. It is brexit that is causing anger to remainers but the 17.4 million who voted for it were across the political spectrum and for many of us who voted remain we want brexit to happen as we respect the democratic voteBeibheirli_C said:
No, it is on point. The current Conservative party is not the party from a few years ago. It has become the Nasty Party again. With nobs on....Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is just ridiculousalb1on said:The best article I have read on this site, and the clearest explanation I have seen for why today's Conservative Party is nothing to do with the Conservative Party of the past that we could respect even if we voted for others. The mutterings of Johnson and his band of cronies reminds me far more of Victor Orban than of serious Conservative politicians, including Thatcher and Major.
On domestic issues Boris is from the liberal wing of the party and it is an easy line for labour and remainers to try to paint the party as right wing.2 -
I have always thought the last tweet is the root cause of the inaction by The Labour Party. If Corbyn can say he did not see the image he liked on Twitter and get of scott free then any other Labour person can use the same excuse. There will be no ending of the AS issue for Labour until Corbyn goes.CarlottaVance said:0 -
The first piece of prose I've seen from Dunt without swear words.eek said:I will add this at the same time
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1202523613062213632
Democracy only works if scrutiny is enforced.0 -
A real coup for Boris to win the endorsement of the fragrant Annunziata Rees-Mogg. How long before the great man himself, the illustrious Nigel, dons a blond wig and pledges his eternal devotion to all things Boris?0
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I just read the abstract of the report. Not good for Corbyn, but no surprises either...CarlottaVance said:The state of replies to this...
twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1202511979488919552?s=20
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Genuinely feel sick reading some of that report.CarlottaVance said:0 -
On topic, a very good article and one I generally agree with. As always, the devil will be in the detail here and little detail is included.
I would take issue with one point though: major changes in the UK constitution have rarely come about on a cross-party basis (or, going back before parties, on a cross-institutional one). Indeed, they've usually come about when one side imposes its will on a deeply hostile opposition. Only after the change, and when the public is reconciled to it, does there develop the political consensus.
The Bill of Rights, for example - that cornerstone of the constitution - did not come about because there was a consensus but because there was a civil war in which (one part of) the victorious side made the statement and enactment into law of these contested principles a red-line demand.1 -
Except that is not what is being tested. The election, except in marginal seats, rarely reflects the quality of the individual candidate. In the majority of seats votes simply reflect historic patterns and demographics supporting one party or another. A blue or red donkey could be put forward (and in many cases is) and still be elected. This is precisely why we can make money betting on outcomes - because odds are often skewed by the deluded who fail to recognise this fact.Andy_JS said:
It's fortunate that the voters are going to have a chance to judge the fitness for office of the likes of Patel, Francois and Baker in just 7 days from now.alb1on said:
No. It is ridiculous to believe that the likes of Baker and Francois would have ever got onto the candidates list under Thatcher. And Patel would have been instantly suspended and deselected for her treachery in Tel Aviv rather than being rewarded as with Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is just ridiculousalb1on said:The best article I have read on this site, and the clearest explanation I have seen for why today's Conservative Party is nothing to do with the Conservative Party of the past that we could respect even if we voted for others. The mutterings of Johnson and his band of cronies reminds me far more of Victor Orban than of serious Conservative politicians, including Thatcher and Major.
You may dislike the truth, but it is that the willingness of the current crop of Conservatives to bend any rule, including that of the law, for their own ends is just as dangerous as the fanaticism of large parts of Labour (and their willingness to ignore the law and treaty obligations, as with their nationalisation proposals. When the law becomes dispensable, so do the people.1 -
oh what utter rot.Beibheirli_C said:If Boris sidelines Parliament and gives ultimate power to the executive then the UK's history as a democracy ends and we begin our first dictatorship in 350 years.
The only laugh will be when the Tories lose a future election and then complain about the sweeping powers they granted to a Labour government.
Grow up.0 -
98% chance of a hung parliament still?Stark_Dawning said:A real coup for Boris to win the endorsement of the fragrant Annunziata Rees-Mogg. How long before the great man himself, the illustrious Nigel, dons a blond wig and pledges his eternal devotion to all things Boris?
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Any chance of rising above the puerile? I know you can. I've seen you do it.Philip_Thompson said:Sour grapes. This is politics.
When Cameron was PM, Andrew Neil used to joke about the fact no party leader wanted to be interviewed by him despite him offering himself for interviews. Just because Corbyn chose to drink from a poisoned chalice doesn't mean anybody else has to do so.1 -
Absolutely. I'd probably put it closer to 99.95.Brom said:
98% chance of a hung parliament still?Stark_Dawning said:A real coup for Boris to win the endorsement of the fragrant Annunziata Rees-Mogg. How long before the great man himself, the illustrious Nigel, dons a blond wig and pledges his eternal devotion to all things Boris?
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FT polling average updated, with Labour dropping from 33% to 32%.
https://www.ft.com/content/263615ca-d873-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17
Con 43%, Lab 32%, LD 13%.0 -
That seems fair given all those polls with a 2 point Tory lead.Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. I'd probably put it closer to 99.95.Brom said:
98% chance of a hung parliament still?Stark_Dawning said:A real coup for Boris to win the endorsement of the fragrant Annunziata Rees-Mogg. How long before the great man himself, the illustrious Nigel, dons a blond wig and pledges his eternal devotion to all things Boris?
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I do agree that Boris is instinctively liberal on domestic matters. That is not the problem with Boris. The problem is that the Conservative Party MPs and members are not - and Boris, just like Orban (and Trump) would sell his own granny for a sniff of power. And if that involves abandoning liberal instincts to ensure party support - so be it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I reject that. It is brexit that is causing anger to remainers but the 17.4 million who voted for it were across the political spectrum and for many of us who voted remain we want brexit to happen as we respect the democratic voteBeibheirli_C said:
No, it is on point. The current Conservative party is not the party from a few years ago. It has become the Nasty Party again. With nobs on....Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is just ridiculousalb1on said:The best article I have read on this site, and the clearest explanation I have seen for why today's Conservative Party is nothing to do with the Conservative Party of the past that we could respect even if we voted for others. The mutterings of Johnson and his band of cronies reminds me far more of Victor Orban than of serious Conservative politicians, including Thatcher and Major.
On domestic issues Boris is from the liberal wing of the party and it is an easy line for labour and remainers to try to paint the party as right wing.0 -
Well if this is how your judgement works I think anything you say going forward should be thought about in that context.Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. I'd probably put it closer to 99.95.Brom said:
98% chance of a hung parliament still?Stark_Dawning said:A real coup for Boris to win the endorsement of the fragrant Annunziata Rees-Mogg. How long before the great man himself, the illustrious Nigel, dons a blond wig and pledges his eternal devotion to all things Boris?
I doubt even with 15 point leads in some polls Tories would say a 99.95% chance of a majority.0 -
He may but also he may just remain silent for the rest of the campaignStark_Dawning said:A real coup for Boris to win the endorsement of the fragrant Annunziata Rees-Mogg. How long before the great man himself, the illustrious Nigel, dons a blond wig and pledges his eternal devotion to all things Boris?
Interesting that Isabel Oakeshott has tweeted 'am conflicted' because she is in a relationship with Richard Tice, Brexit party chairman and candidate for Hartlepool0 -
The strongest issue is in fact with Cummings. In all their professed desire to remove the threat of Britain supposedly turning overnight into a Stalinist dictatorship, under an eccentric social democrat with some more strident and simplistic moments retained from his youth, few Tories have noticed that Cummings is in fact far more of a revolutionary - in his publicly professed views on his blog, that suggest essentially destroying Britain's existing state structure in order to renew it - than Corbyn has been since the 80's.alb1on said:The best article I have read on this site, and the clearest explanation I have seen for why today's Conservative Party is nothing to do with the Conservative Party of the past that we could respect even if we voted for others. The mutterings of Johnson and his band of cronies reminds me far more of Victor Orban than of serious Conservative politicians, including Thatcher and Major.
The bizarre ultra-libertarian-marxist Living Marxism crowd that helped form the Brexit Party understand this much better than most of the current nativist and populist Tory candidates.2 -
Eleven point lead with a week to go, and higher than the 42% at the last election - I think we'd taken that at the start of the campaign.Andy_JS said:FT polling average updated, with Labour dropping from 33% to 32%.
https://www.ft.com/content/263615ca-d873-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17
Con 43%, Lab 32%, LD 13%.0 -
The dossier accuses Corbyn of 11 acts of AS committed by him personally.1
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I find it hard to have too much sympathy for the BBC. For years they favoured Marr over Neil. It's no good complaining now when for years the likes of Blair, Brown and Cameron have dodged Neil.kinabalu said:
It's the BBC's.SunnyJim said:Seemed like a legitimate point.
Corbyn chose to do an interview that turned in to a humiliating car-crash.
That's his problem not Boris's.1 -
FPT - but not sure I'm doing this rightrural_voter said:
A majority of 1 would be entertaining to the media. Defections/deaths/byelections can't be ruled out, leading to ... another election?Wulfrun_Phil said:
1 and 2 are not mutually exclusive.numbertwelve said:Heard on R4 this morning that Tory staffers think it will be tight next Thursday.
Two ways to look at this:
1) GOTV operation in swing. 2017 possibly resulted in HP because there was complacency
2) it actually IS tight.
I would probably favour the former but at the same time I have said for a while I could very easily see the sort of result where the majority is very slim.
Will N.I have more opposition MPs? S.Finn is supporting a Remain alliance so more anti-Brexit MPs might take a HoC seat. The UUP is now pro-EU apparently, if faced with the Johnson 'deal' (a.k.a. No Deal in Dec. 2020).0 -
Nothing to be gained for Nige to throw his lot in with Boris. Makes sense for the rest of the BXP to abandon the party and vote for Boris because they actually want brexit 'done'. Farage will just hope for a hung parliament or failing that wait until he can scream betrayal at Boris again. And if Boris somehow manages to not betray brexiteers Farage will probably head back across the Atlantic to try his luck again as a Trump Toady on Fox.Stark_Dawning said:A real coup for Boris to win the endorsement of the fragrant Annunziata Rees-Mogg. How long before the great man himself, the illustrious Nigel, dons a blond wig and pledges his eternal devotion to all things Boris?
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It's not a report.BannedinnParis said:
Genuinely feel sick reading some of that report.CarlottaVance said:
It's a submission by JLM.
Only from Lab canvassers.Stocky said:
I`m on Tories in Bolsover at 5/4. Do you have particular insight into that consitituency?bigjohnowls said:
I got on NOM at 4.0 and cashed out at 3.05.JamesP said:Conservative Overall Majority now below 1.4 again (1.39) on Betfair.
Is there anyway to see the absolute lowest figures on this market in the last month or so? I remember seeing 1.37, but nothing lower.
Only bets I now have is on Skinner holding Bolsover at 5/4 and Toby holding Chesterfield at 1/3
They told me they expect to win just("quietly confident"), about a fortnight ago.
Then about a week ago they were in "we will be ok things are moving our way" mode.
One told me he expected a 2000 win
Canvassers can be rubbish forecasters though so I wouldn't be swayed if I were you.0 -
That gives it 1999 chances in 2000.Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. I'd probably put it closer to 99.95.Brom said:
98% chance of a hung parliament still?Stark_Dawning said:A real coup for Boris to win the endorsement of the fragrant Annunziata Rees-Mogg. How long before the great man himself, the illustrious Nigel, dons a blond wig and pledges his eternal devotion to all things Boris?
Feel free to lay me 100/1 on some party winning a majority.1 -
Boris is brilliant and will absolutely, certainly delivery us the most wonderful Brexit.Philip_Thompson said:
Well if this is how your judgement works I think anything you say going forward should be thought about in that context.Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. I'd probably put it closer to 99.95.Brom said:
98% chance of a hung parliament still?Stark_Dawning said:A real coup for Boris to win the endorsement of the fragrant Annunziata Rees-Mogg. How long before the great man himself, the illustrious Nigel, dons a blond wig and pledges his eternal devotion to all things Boris?
I doubt even with 15 point leads in some polls Tories would say a 99.95% chance of a majority.0 -
Oops.ralphmalph said:The dossier accuses Corbyn of 11 acts of AS committed by him personally.
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During WWII we kids used to sing the refrain::
Whistle while you work
Whistle while you work
Mussolini is a weenie
Hitler is a jerk0 -
Con Maj into 1.39 now on Betfair. 1.40 to lay.
2% return available in a week by laying Labour maj at 500 -
Canvassers can be very good forecasters if they have done the same area at a previous election. The problem in Bolsover will be lack of data thru past complacencybigjohnowls said:
It's not a report.BannedinnParis said:
Genuinely feel sick reading some of that report.CarlottaVance said:
It's a submission by JLM.
Only from Lab canvassers.Stocky said:
I`m on Tories in Bolsover at 5/4. Do you have particular insight into that consitituency?bigjohnowls said:
I got on NOM at 4.0 and cashed out at 3.05.JamesP said:Conservative Overall Majority now below 1.4 again (1.39) on Betfair.
Is there anyway to see the absolute lowest figures on this market in the last month or so? I remember seeing 1.37, but nothing lower.
Only bets I now have is on Skinner holding Bolsover at 5/4 and Toby holding Chesterfield at 1/3
They told me they expect to win just("quietly confident"), about a fortnight ago.
Then about a week ago they were in "we will be ok things are moving our way" mode.
One told me he expected a 2000 win
Canvassers can be rubbish forecasters though so I wouldn't be swayed if I were you.0 -
Don't tell me you prefer McVey to Gauke too! This manifestation of the Tories - I just can't get my head around it.Philip_Thompson said:Why not?
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I believe that's a Labour majority of 30 with Barnesian...Andy_JS said:FT polling average updated, with Labour dropping from 33% to 32%.
https://www.ft.com/content/263615ca-d873-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17
Con 43%, Lab 32%, LD 13%.
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I have just had a small flutter at 16/1 on the Lib Dems getting 30-39 seats.
It's certainly unlikely, but I don't think it's 16/1 unlikely. Essentially I'm betting that (a) Swinson has bottomed out and could indeed stage a modest recovery, (b) there is going to be a lot of tactical voting, (c) there's a chance that either Johnson or Corbyn will screw up somehow over the next week.
I'll keep an eye on it over the week and may decide to cut my losses after the weekend, but for now it looks tempting.0 -
Even I wouldn't say that.Stark_Dawning said:
Boris is brilliant and will absolutely, certainly delivery us the most wonderful Brexit.Philip_Thompson said:
Well if this is how your judgement works I think anything you say going forward should be thought about in that context.Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. I'd probably put it closer to 99.95.Brom said:
98% chance of a hung parliament still?Stark_Dawning said:A real coup for Boris to win the endorsement of the fragrant Annunziata Rees-Mogg. How long before the great man himself, the illustrious Nigel, dons a blond wig and pledges his eternal devotion to all things Boris?
I doubt even with 15 point leads in some polls Tories would say a 99.95% chance of a majority.
Anyone who sprouts "certainty" or "99.95" is generally talking bullshit.
The one thing I can say for certainty or 99.95% is that Jo Swinson will not be our next Prime Minister whatever her protestations.0 -
Quality work, a bulging catch net guaranteed.Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. I'd probably put it closer to 99.95.Brom said:
98% chance of a hung parliament still?Stark_Dawning said:A real coup for Boris to win the endorsement of the fragrant Annunziata Rees-Mogg. How long before the great man himself, the illustrious Nigel, dons a blond wig and pledges his eternal devotion to all things Boris?
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Oh dear.ralphmalph said:The dossier accuses Corbyn of 11 acts of AS committed by him personally.
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Like sock suspenders, Farage is now something that will never come back into fashion. The hard Right now has a new fetish and it's known as Boris. If Nigel wants to retain any significance at all, his only choice is to become a Boris luvvie and hope that some of the stardust rubs off.Paristonda said:
Nothing to be gained for Nige to throw his lot in with Boris. Makes sense for the rest of the BXP to abandon the party and vote for Boris because they actually want brexit 'done'. Farage will just hope for a hung parliament or failing that wait until he can scream betrayal at Boris again. And if Boris somehow manages to not betray brexiteers Farage will probably head back across the Atlantic to try his luck again as a Trump Toady on Fox.Stark_Dawning said:A real coup for Boris to win the endorsement of the fragrant Annunziata Rees-Mogg. How long before the great man himself, the illustrious Nigel, dons a blond wig and pledges his eternal devotion to all things Boris?
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It's not rot. We have a very fragile democracy compared to countries with a written constitution, checks and balances *and* a second chamber.speybay said:
oh what utter rot.Beibheirli_C said:If Boris sidelines Parliament and gives ultimate power to the executive then the UK's history as a democracy ends and we begin our first dictatorship in 350 years.
The only laugh will be when the Tories lose a future election and then complain about the sweeping powers they granted to a Labour government.
Grow up.
Thatcher abolished the GLC by the stroke of a pen - well, a vote in parliament when she had a convenient majority of 144. Even Tories on the GLC and its predecessor the LCC thought it was outrageous.
At times only the House of Lords stands between us and tyranny.
Well, we have the courts but they depend on millionaires. There's no legal aid for 'constitutional' or 'public interest' litigation. Also Johnson wants to alter them.4 -
Yes I do. That says more about my opinion of Gauke than it does about McVey though.kinabalu said:
Don't tell me you prefer McVey to Gauke too! This manifestation of the Tories - I just can't get my head around it.Philip_Thompson said:Why not?
Tell me what Gauke has done to justify a high opinion of him? Besides his contempt for democracy when he is on the losing side has he done anything else fantastic?0 -
Big_G_NorthWales said:
Moves by Brexit members today to the tories must be the precursor to Farage instructing his party to vote for Boris
Jeezo, can't you leave a decent period between the about turns? I'm getting dizzy.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He may but also he may just remain silent for the rest of the campaign1 -
This is my total lack of surprise.ralphmalph said:The dossier accuses Corbyn of 11 acts of AS committed by him personally.
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Ofcom rejected the complaint against Channel 4 so seems like the BBC could totally do it.kinabalu said:
Yes, something like this should happen. Or if this is contra Ofcom something similar but allowable. Do it, Beeb. Your reputation depends on it.eek said:I will add this at the same time.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1202523613062213632
Democracy only works if scrutiny is enforced.0 -
Quite, and Boris managed to weather the storm with no more than a day of negative Twitter headlines from his opponents. No-one followed him around all week in chicken suits or Andrew Neil masks.SunnyJim said:
Seemed like a legitimate point.kinabalu said:
Any chance of rising above the puerile? I know you can. I've seen you do it.
Corbyn chose to do an interview that turned in to a humiliating car-crash.
That's his problem not Boris's.0 -
For those of you with the pdf, Corbyn's personal AS summary is section 25, subsections 1 through 11.0
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20-29 looks decent value at 12/5. Given that over 25.5 is 3/1 the 12/5 looks out of line. It is relatively easy to see how the LDs reach 20 by retaining the 2017 seats and adding obvious targets (Richmond/St Albans/Cheltenham/Fife etc). But adding another 6 should surely command a bigger gap in the odds.El_Capitano said:I have just had a small flutter at 16/1 on the Lib Dems getting 30-39 seats.
It's certainly unlikely, but I don't think it's 16/1 unlikely. Essentially I'm betting that (a) Swinson has bottomed out and could indeed stage a modest recovery, (b) there is going to be a lot of tactical voting, (c) there's a chance that either Johnson or Corbyn will screw up somehow over the next week.
I'll keep an eye on it over the week and may decide to cut my losses after the weekend, but for now it looks tempting.1 -
Sky seem to be completely ignoring this AS report.0
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Yukwooliedyed said:Morning all
Con gain Annunziata Rees-Mogg1 -
Even Momentum members would draw the line at being asked to wear an Andrew Neil mask. They do have some pride.Sandpit said:
Quite, and Boris managed to weather the storm with no more than a day of negative Twitter headlines from his opponents. No-one followed him around all week in chicken suits or Andrew Neil masks.SunnyJim said:
Seemed like a legitimate point.kinabalu said:
Any chance of rising above the puerile? I know you can. I've seen you do it.
Corbyn chose to do an interview that turned in to a humiliating car-crash.
That's his problem not Boris's.0 -
Anti Brexit = lovely cuddly liberal Pro Brexit = Extreme right wing nutterPhilip_Thompson said:
Yes I do. That says more about my opinion of Gauke than it does about McVey though.kinabalu said:
Don't tell me you prefer McVey to Gauke too! This manifestation of the Tories - I just can't get my head around it.Philip_Thompson said:Why not?
Tell me what Gauke has done to justify a high opinion of him? Besides his contempt for democracy when he is on the losing side has he done anything else fantastic?0 -
Sorry about that but I am not endorsing Farage the person, never will.Theuniondivvie said:Big_G_NorthWales said:Moves by Brexit members today to the tories must be the precursor to Farage instructing his party to vote for Boris
Jeezo, can't you leave a decent period between the about turns? I'm getting dizzy.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He may but also he may just remain silent for the rest of the campaign0
