politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dominic Raab’s rock solid safe seat now a key GE2019 battlegro

The early bird catches the worm.

eek said:

I just don't see Raab following the Portillo / Balls post politics career path.

Zero warmth.

Good if so.... headbangers need a little reminder that they are accountable to the electorate and at least make them work for their gold plated pensions.

The best bit of this election - not saying much - is the wonderful absence from our screens of people like Bridgen and Private Francois - long may that continue please!

I imagine that everyone's already seen this, but anyway...

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1202249094862983170

Johnson's ratings down only a touch, Corbyn flatlining. Johnson 24 points ahead of Corbyn (and the Tories also 22 points ahead of Labour on "best campaign" question.)

Perhaps the Conservatives are winning the campaign this time? Seven days remaining for Labour to turn things around.

eek said:

I just don't see Raab following the Portillo / Balls post politics career path.

If things go well next Thursday, next year's Strictly line up could be entirely composed of former politicians.

My money would be on Iain Duncan Smith v Emma Little Pengelly to end up in the dance-off first.

I presume OGH's letters are like confetti in the post boxes of the poor voters of Esher...

I reckon the Tories might win Canterbury back if they get a majority. Would only take a tiny drop in the Labour vote and I'd imagine the student vote will be down slightly. Julien Brazier seemed part of the problem by the end but the new candidate is a fresher face. It's perhaps worth noting Brazier's majority halved between 1997 and 2001 to 1500 votes when the Labour candidate was one Emily Thornberry.

Yes there are Lib Dems to squeeze but its also a place where the yellow vote should hold up well, no BXP either.

If that 72% turnout from Canterbury 2017 returns to the mid 60s as it was for the previous 3 elections then I reckon Duffield will be the loser.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Just to get everybody in the mood...BBC Exit polls 1992-2017..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=myntJD4EXaQ

Is this your idea of foreplay?

Scrapheap_as_was said:

I presume OGH's letters are like confetti in the post boxes of the poor voters of Esher...

Nothing from Mike in mine but today's was Ian Taylor's statement recommending us all to vote for the LibDem.

Of course, Mr Taylor bequeathed a majority of 7,700 in 2010, so his fan base can perhaps be overstated.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Just to get everybody in the mood...BBC Exit polls 1992-2017..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=myntJD4EXaQ

Everyone loves a Big Bong but that one has multiple Big Bongs.

I think Raab will cling on but I expect Remain voting Esher and Walton to be more marginal for the Tories after this election than traditional bellweather seats in Leave areas like Harlow, Thurrock, Gravesham, Dartford and Nuneaton and Rugby which will have bigger Tory majorities. While Surrey is shifting from safe Tory to Tory LD marginal, Essex for example is shifting from Tory Labour marginal to safe Tory

FrancisUrquhart said:

Black_Rook said:

I imagine that everyone's already seen this, but anyway...

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1202249094862983170

Johnson's ratings down only a touch, Corbyn flatlining. Johnson 24 points ahead of Corbyn (and the Tories also 22 points ahead of Labour on "best campaign" question.)

Perhaps the Conservatives are winning the campaign this time? Seven days remaining for Labour to turn things around.

Basically Jezza is exactly where he started the campaign.

I am really struggling to get my head around the Tories winning the campaign by such a margin....I wouldn't vote Corbyn if he was the only choice on the ballot, but I think they have had a better campaign than the Tories (even if the policies are a combination of ridiculously expensive, self defeating and / or unworkable).

The only positive in those numbers for Labour is the NHS being a bigger election issue than Brexit.

Brom said:

I reckon the Tories might win Canterbury back if they get a majority. Would only take a tiny drop in the Labour vote and I'd imagine the student vote will be down slightly. Julien Brazier seemed part of the problem by the end but the new candidate is a fresher face. It's perhaps worth noting Brazier's majority halved between 1997 and 2001 to 1500 votes when the Labour candidate was one Emily Thornberry.

Yes there are Lib Dems to squeeze but its also a place where the yellow vote should hold up well, no BXP either.

If that 72% turnout from Canterbury 2017 returns to the mid 60s as it was for the previous 3 elections then I reckon Duffield will be the loser.

Canterbury voted Remain (as a constituency) and has 2 universities, it will be a Labour hold in my view even if the Tories gain Leave seats like Bolsover and Grimsby

Philip_Thompson said:

Black_Rook said:

I imagine that everyone's already seen this, but anyway...

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1202249094862983170

Johnson's ratings down only a touch, Corbyn flatlining. Johnson 24 points ahead of Corbyn (and the Tories also 22 points ahead of Labour on "best campaign" question.)

Perhaps the Conservatives are winning the campaign this time? Seven days remaining for Labour to turn things around.

Odd phrasing. Johnson's ratings are the same as last week and Corbyn's gone down a touch - if that were even possible!

Philip_Thompson said:

Black_Rook said:

I imagine that everyone's already seen this, but anyway...

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1202249094862983170

Johnson's ratings down only a touch, Corbyn flatlining. Johnson 24 points ahead of Corbyn (and the Tories also 22 points ahead of Labour on "best campaign" question.)

Perhaps the Conservatives are winning the campaign this time? Seven days remaining for Labour to turn things around.

Odd phrasing. Johnson's ratings are the same as last week and Corbyn's gone down a touch - if that were even possible!

Philip_Thompson said:

Black_Rook said:

I imagine that everyone's already seen this, but anyway...

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1202249094862983170

Johnson's ratings down only a touch, Corbyn flatlining. Johnson 24 points ahead of Corbyn (and the Tories also 22 points ahead of Labour on "best campaign" question.)

Perhaps the Conservatives are winning the campaign this time? Seven days remaining for Labour to turn things around.

Odd phrasing. Johnson's ratings are the same as last week and Corbyn's gone down a touch - if that were even possible!

Leader net favorability, historically a good predictor, suggests a Tory lead of 8-9pp in terms of vote share, rather than the 16pp in the latest Mori poll.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Odd phrasing. Johnson's ratings are the same as last week and Corbyn's gone down a touch - if that were even possible!

Leader net favorability, historically a good predictor, suggests a Tory lead of 8-9pp in terms of vote share, rather than the 16pp in the latest Mori poll.

How do you figure when there is a 24% net difference between the two parties?

Philip_Thompson said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Odd phrasing. Johnson's ratings are the same as last week and Corbyn's gone down a touch - if that were even possible!

Leader net favorability, historically a good predictor, suggests a Tory lead of 8-9pp in terms of vote share, rather than the 16pp in the latest Mori poll.

How do you figure when there is a 24% net difference between the two parties?

Plot the data going back to 1979. The coefficient isn't 1.

Philip_Thompson said:

Black_Rook said:

I imagine that everyone's already seen this, but anyway...

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1202249094862983170

Johnson's ratings down only a touch, Corbyn flatlining. Johnson 24 points ahead of Corbyn (and the Tories also 22 points ahead of Labour on "best campaign" question.)

Perhaps the Conservatives are winning the campaign this time? Seven days remaining for Labour to turn things around.

Odd phrasing. Johnson's ratings are the same as last week and Corbyn's gone down a touch - if that were even possible!

Leader net favorability, historically a good predictor, suggests a Tory lead of 8-9pp in terms of vote share, rather than the 16pp in the latest Mori poll.

The favourability then (i.e. when the poll said a 16 point lead) was -9 to -38, what sort of lead does that suggest?

HYUFD said:

JohnO said:

HYUFD said:

Brom said:

I reckon the Tories might win Canterbury back if they get a majority. Would only take a tiny drop in the Labour vote and I'd imagine the student vote will be down slightly. Julien Brazier seemed part of the problem by the end but the new candidate is a fresher face. It's perhaps worth noting Brazier's majority halved between 1997 and 2001 to 1500 votes when the Labour candidate was one Emily Thornberry.

Yes there are Lib Dems to squeeze but its also a place where the yellow vote should hold up well, no BXP either.

If that 72% turnout from Canterbury 2017 returns to the mid 60s as it was for the previous 3 elections then I reckon Duffield will be the loser.

Canterbury voted Remain (as a constituency) and has 2 universities, it will be a Labour hold in my view even if the Tories gain Leave seats like Bolsover and Grimsby

How about a £10 charity bet? I say the Tories will regain Canterbury.

Agreed, though I think the Tories will get a majority overall

Thanks. One to watch. Too scarred from 2017 to make a prediction nationally.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Odd phrasing. Johnson's ratings are the same as last week and Corbyn's gone down a touch - if that were even possible!

Leader net favorability, historically a good predictor, suggests a Tory lead of 8-9pp in terms of vote share, rather than the 16pp in the latest Mori poll.

How do you figure when there is a 24% net difference between the two parties?

Plot the data going back to 1979. The coefficient isn't 1.

Sorry, your post implied you had a model or relationship. Genuinely curious - could you show your workings, please?

FrancisUrquhart said:

Black_Rook said:

I imagine that everyone's already seen this, but anyway...

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1202249094862983170

Johnson's ratings down only a touch, Corbyn flatlining. Johnson 24 points ahead of Corbyn (and the Tories also 22 points ahead of Labour on "best campaign" question.)

Perhaps the Conservatives are winning the campaign this time? Seven days remaining for Labour to turn things around.

Basically Jezza is exactly where he started the campaign.

I am really struggling to get my head around the Tories winning the campaign by such a margin....I wouldn't vote Corbyn if he was the only choice on the ballot, but I think they have had a better campaign than the Tories (even if the policies are a combination of ridiculously expensive, self defeating and / or unworkable).

This campaign has at least killed the crap spun here by certain PB regulars that Bozo is somehow an Ace campaigner. In reality he is hiding behind the sofa and counting the days to next Thursday, while his party is barely fighting a campaign at all.

BannedinnParis said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Black_Rook said:

I imagine that everyone's already seen this, but anyway...

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1202249094862983170

Johnson's ratings down only a touch, Corbyn flatlining. Johnson 24 points ahead of Corbyn (and the Tories also 22 points ahead of Labour on "best campaign" question.)

Perhaps the Conservatives are winning the campaign this time? Seven days remaining for Labour to turn things around.

Odd phrasing. Johnson's ratings are the same as last week and Corbyn's gone down a touch - if that were even possible!

Leader net favorability, historically a good predictor, suggests a Tory lead of 8-9pp in terms of vote share, rather than the 16pp in the latest Mori poll.

The favourability then (i.e. when the poll said a 16 point lead) was -9 to -38, what sort of lead does that suggest?


I no longer have the spreadsheet in front of me, sorry. But probably something like 11pp off the top of my head. Mori's net leader favorability is a much better predictor than their headline poll numbers. Net favorability for Johnson-Corbyn is much less advantageous for the Tories than for Thatcher-Foot, but their headline poll numbers suggest a 1983 style lead. Leader favorability isn't in landslide territory this time around because (a) Corbyn has improved over the campaign and (b) people don't like Johnson either.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Black_Rook said:

I imagine that everyone's already seen this, but anyway...

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1202249094862983170

Johnson's ratings down only a touch, Corbyn flatlining. Johnson 24 points ahead of Corbyn (and the Tories also 22 points ahead of Labour on "best campaign" question.)

Perhaps the Conservatives are winning the campaign this time? Seven days remaining for Labour to turn things around.

Basically Jezza is exactly where he started the campaign.

I am really struggling to get my head around the Tories winning the campaign by such a margin....I wouldn't vote Corbyn if he was the only choice on the ballot, but I think they have had a better campaign than the Tories (even if the policies are a combination of ridiculously expensive, self defeating and / or unworkable).

It is just possible that a sufficient proportion of the electorate has seen through the "free everything" strategy, and rejected it as dangerous and/or laughable, for it to have become counterproductive. In which case, one would expect Labour to struggle. It is pretty much the be all and end all of their campaign.

Indeed, if I'm wrong and the defecting Labour Leavers aren't coming home, it may be that most of the Labour upswing in the VI numbers during the course of the campaign has been courtesy of Southern Remain voters, whilst their position has been static or in reverse in the Midlands and Northern marginals (which would also be consistent with some previous suggestions that the Tories may be on course to achieve outsized swings in those same areas.)

If so then the efficiency of Labour's vote could reduce drastically. There aren't that many Con-Lab marginals in play in the South, but there are dozens of potentially vulnerable Labour Leave seats in the North and West Midlands and Northern England.

Taking into account improved Liberal Democrat performances in the South, which could net them a lot of respectable second places but very few actual gains, and the story of the election could turn out to be the Southern Tories almost all surviving but with reduced majorities, whilst the Midlands and Northern Tories make big advances. Not long to wait until we find out.

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Black_Rook said:

I imagine that everyone's already seen this, but anyway...

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1202249094862983170

Johnson's ratings down only a touch, Corbyn flatlining. Johnson 24 points ahead of Corbyn (and the Tories also 22 points ahead of Labour on "best campaign" question.)

Perhaps the Conservatives are winning the campaign this time? Seven days remaining for Labour to turn things around.

Basically Jezza is exactly where he started the campaign.

I am really struggling to get my head around the Tories winning the campaign by such a margin....I wouldn't vote Corbyn if he was the only choice on the ballot, but I think they have had a better campaign than the Tories (even if the policies are a combination of ridiculously expensive, self defeating and / or unworkable).

This campaign has at least killed the crap spun here by certain PB regulars that Bozo is somehow an Ace campaigner. In reality he is hiding behind the sofa and counting the days to next Thursday, while his party is barely fighting a campaign at all.

How much of a lead would they have if they did have a fighting campaign? Labour are laughably bad. Trying to buy votes with the grandkids future not as popular as they thought. They've offered every bribe but a case of Stella and are still trailing.

What is MORI up to?

Last MORI voting intention was 15-19 Nov.

But they then issued leader data for 22-25 Nov but no voting intention?

Now we have leader data for 29 Nov-2 Dec. Will we get voting intention this time?

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BannedinnParis said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Black_Rook said:

I imagine that everyone's already seen this, but anyway...

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1202249094862983170

Johnson's ratings down only a touch, Corbyn flatlining. Johnson 24 points ahead of Corbyn (and the Tories also 22 points ahead of Labour on "best campaign" question.)

Perhaps the Conservatives are winning the campaign this time? Seven days remaining for Labour to turn things around.

Odd phrasing. Johnson's ratings are the same as last week and Corbyn's gone down a touch - if that were even possible!

Leader net favorability, historically a good predictor, suggests a Tory lead of 8-9pp in terms of vote share, rather than the 16pp in the latest Mori poll.

The favourability then (i.e. when the poll said a 16 point lead) was -9 to -38, what sort of lead does that suggest?

I no longer have the spreadsheet in front of me, sorry. But probably something like 11pp off the top of my head. Mori's net leader favorability is a much better predictor than their headline poll numbers. Net favorability for Johnson-Corbyn is much less advantageous for the Tories than for Thatcher-Foot, but their headline poll numbers suggest a 1983 style lead. Leader favorability isn't in landslide territory this time around because (a) Corbyn has improved over the campaign and (b) people don't like Johnson either.

Cheers, makes sense.

Bet 365 :
Over and under seats for labour has slowly crept up, from baseline of 200 a few weeks ago, to be at 219 today
Whilst the tories have slipped, from 350 to 340
Lib Dems have been hammered

Are we like in 2017? Something brewing out there, which we ignore?
At this time, in 2017 it was talk of 400 tories seat. This time it's more of a small majority due to a collapse of Labour's Northern wall. This is after 9 years of austerity, cuts to the bone, specially in the North who rely on public services and spending.
So on polling day, you expect many of them to wave the flag and vote for Boris, as a thank you for shafting me for 9 years?? Something does not add up. My gut feeling is, up North, Labour may lose 10-20 seats at the max. Many will end up voting Brexit Party, just to spite everyone.
Would be happy to be proved wrong. Besides Brexit, Boris and Corbyn there are local leaders, many of whom have a personal vote or connection with the people. Which can easily bypass any national trends. As proven by Chris Matheson from Chester.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BannedinnParis said:

The favourability then (i.e. when the poll said a 16 point lead) was -9 to -38, what sort of lead does that suggest?

I no longer have the spreadsheet in front of me, sorry. But probably something like 11pp off the top of my head. Mori's net leader favorability is a much better predictor than their headline poll numbers. Net favorability for Johnson-Corbyn is much less advantageous for the Tories than for Thatcher-Foot, but their headline poll numbers suggest a 1983 style lead. Leader favorability isn't in landslide territory this time around because (a) Corbyn has improved over the campaign and (b) people don't like Johnson either.

Corbyn's gone from -39 at the start of the campaign to -38 now. That's hardly a rounding error let alone improving!

FrancisUrquhart said:

Just to get everybody in the mood...BBC Exit polls 1992-2017..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=myntJD4EXaQ

Did they really forecast the LDs would gain only two seats? They completely missed massive levels of tactical voting.

Jonathan said:

Raab C Brexit would be a sad loss. A truly great man, one of the few titans left in British politics. And yet so modest.

Ok, I'll be honest.

I laughed.

MikeL said:

What is MORI up to?

Last MORI voting intention was 15-19 Nov.

But they then issued leader data for 22-25 Nov but no voting intention?

Now we have leader data for 29 Nov-2 Dec. Will we get voting intention this time?

Yeah, it's a little confusing which belongs to which poll. I'm seeing different figures reported for the same time period, presumably by journos similarly confused.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

eek said:

I just don't see Raab following the Portillo / Balls post politics career path.

I'm not sure Raab is famous enough for people to care. Portillo in particular was all over the media back in the day and Balls was at least well-known. I'm not sure the voter on the Clapham omnibus could pick out Raab in a police line-up.

Skinner is the more likely big name casualty anyway, followed by Swinson

A week out in 2017 and you had stuff like this happening

https://www.getreading.co.uk/news/reading-berkshire-news/general-election-2017-thousands-turn-13118964

I've not seen anything like that this time around

saddened said:

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Black_Rook said:

I imagine that everyone's already seen this, but anyway...

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1202249094862983170

Johnson's ratings down only a touch, Corbyn flatlining. Johnson 24 points ahead of Corbyn (and the Tories also 22 points ahead of Labour on "best campaign" question.)

Perhaps the Conservatives are winning the campaign this time? Seven days remaining for Labour to turn things around.

Basically Jezza is exactly where he started the campaign.

I am really struggling to get my head around the Tories winning the campaign by such a margin....I wouldn't vote Corbyn if he was the only choice on the ballot, but I think they have had a better campaign than the Tories (even if the policies are a combination of ridiculously expensive, self defeating and / or unworkable).

This campaign has at least killed the crap spun here by certain PB regulars that Bozo is somehow an Ace campaigner. In reality he is hiding behind the sofa and counting the days to next Thursday, while his party is barely fighting a campaign at all.

How much of a lead would they have if they did have a fighting campaign? Labour are laughably bad. Trying to buy votes with the grandkids future not as popular as they thought. They've offered every bribe but a case of Stella and are still trailing.

I have read or inferred the following about the campaign, which may or may not be true:

1. The Tories are already miles ahead amongst the over 40s, so there's little value in their throwing their effort into things like TV debates and radio interviews, which are predominantly listened to by the middle-aged and elderly. It also explains the avoidance of Andrew Neil - the Tories are far less concerned about Boris Johnson failing to turn up to be interviewed before an audience he already has in the bag anyway, and far more concerned about providing extra material for Labour viral video clips
2. Their primary effort is therefore focussed on social media, where they are testing all sorts of messages (hence the minor news stories about videos where the BBC have objected to being quoted out-of-context and such like,) prior to a gigantic advertising blitz in the final week of the campaign. Hit the younger voters over and over with well-targeted messages to try to sway a crucial few percent of the Labour vote in their direction, and convert a small majority into a large one

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/elashton/status/1202186385333063685

https://twitter.com/elashton/status/1202186951337631744

And both the candidate and the founder of Advance Together (sic) both have strong LibDem links. Astonishing, isn't it.

BannedinnParis said:

A week out in 2017 and you had stuff like this happening

https://www.getreading.co.uk/news/reading-berkshire-news/general-election-2017-thousands-turn-13118964

I've not seen anything like that this time around

Well, Corbyn is no longer the exciting new thing, is he?

JohnO said:

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/elashton/status/1202186385333063685

https://twitter.com/elashton/status/1202186951337631744

And both the candidate and the founder of Advance Together (sic) both have strong LibDem links. Astonishing, isn't it.

The Electoral Commission and the Police really should look into this if this has been done to double the per-seat campaign spend in these seats.

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Maybe Raab is drawing all the heavy fire away from other more promising seats, like Guildford.

I think Raab will hang on in Esher, although I'm not sure that will be good for the government. While he was a great campaigner for Leave, I'm not convinced he's any more than adequate as Foreign Secretary.

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Maybe Raab is drawing all the heavy fire away from other more promising seats, like Guildford.

I think Raab will hang on in Esher, although I'm not sure that will be good for the government. While he was a great campaigner for Leave, I'm not convinced he's any more than adequate as Foreign Secretary.

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Maybe Raab is drawing all the heavy fire away from other more promising seats, like Guildford.

I think Raab will hang on in Esher, although I'm not sure that will be good for the government. While he was a great campaigner for Leave, I'm not convinced he's any more than adequate as Foreign Secretary.

He might be reshuffled very quickly. His current cabinet was about winning the Tory leadership and the election campaign.

Boris is someone who thinks loyalty only works one way so if he wins big (huge if) I expect a significant one.

Ironically a huge Tory win could be doubly-good for the sanity of both parties.

In Labour it would force Labour to look into its soul and realise what has gone wrong.
In the Conservatives it would permit the PM to have some breathing space and not permit the ERG or other extreme wings to be able to veto policies.

melcf said:

Bet 365 :
Over and under seats for labour has slowly crept up, from baseline of 200 a few weeks ago, to be at 219 today
Whilst the tories have slipped, from 350 to 340
Lib Dems have been hammered

Are we like in 2017? Something brewing out there, which we ignore?
At this time, in 2017 it was talk of 400 tories seat. This time it's more of a small majority due to a collapse of Labour's Northern wall. This is after 9 years of austerity, cuts to the bone, specially in the North who rely on public services and spending.
So on polling day, you expect many of them to wave the flag and vote for Boris, as a thank you for shafting me for 9 years?? Something does not add up. My gut feeling is, up North, Labour may lose 10-20 seats at the max. Many will end up voting Brexit Party, just to spite everyone.
Would be happy to be proved wrong. Besides Brexit, Boris and Corbyn there are local leaders, many of whom have a personal vote or connection with the people. Which can easily bypass any national trends. As proven by Chris Matheson from Chester.

What the Labour Leavers end up doing is going to be the axis around which the election revolves. And we simply don't know. If they're holding firm then the night could be very bad for Labour. If they splinter then the Tories could still win with a small majority. If they head home en masse it's another Hung Parliament.

The signs continue to look cautiously encouraging for the Tories, but we obviously shan't know until the votes are counted.

@Philip_Thompson

Yes, that’s my view.

Bob Willis - if you have 21 minutes to spare this evening, this is worth watching:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtPw_Ztlm_Q

I always like watching a sportsman celebrate by basically looking quite cross. No-one ever beat Bob Willis at that.

Also interesting how quiet cricket was in those days!

MikeL said:

BBC1 6pm News headlines:

1) NATO / Trump
2) Racism in football
3) Bob Willis
4) We'll look at GE through eyes of poor people in Grimsby

For several days GE seems to have dropped way down news pecking order.

It's been the same on the Guardian website. There's not really much happening. Johnson looks likely to do what May couldn't. Ah well.

HYUFD said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

eek said:

I just don't see Raab following the Portillo / Balls post politics career path.

I'm not sure Raab is famous enough for people to care. Portillo in particular was all over the media back in the day and Balls was at least well-known. I'm not sure the voter on the Clapham omnibus could pick out Raab in a police line-up.

Skinner is the more likely big name casualty anyway, followed by Swinson

You think Swinson more likely to be ousted than Raab?

HYUFD said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

eek said:

I just don't see Raab following the Portillo / Balls post politics career path.

I'm not sure Raab is famous enough for people to care. Portillo in particular was all over the media back in the day and Balls was at least well-known. I'm not sure the voter on the Clapham omnibus could pick out Raab in a police line-up.

Skinner is the more likely big name casualty anyway, followed by Swinson

I have always admired optimism, but there comes a point when it becomes a substitute for sanity. If you really believe that rather than just playing the political game you can get 11/4 for the SNP beating Swinson. Skinner is not a big name to the public.

squareroot2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BannedinnParis said:

The favourability then (i.e. when the poll said a 16 point lead) was -9 to -38, what sort of lead does that suggest?

I no longer have the spreadsheet in front of me, sorry. But probably something like 11pp off the top of my head. Mori's net leader favorability is a much better predictor than their headline poll numbers. Net favorability for Johnson-Corbyn is much less advantageous for the Tories than for Thatcher-Foot, but their headline poll numbers suggest a 1983 style lead. Leader favorability isn't in landslide territory this time around because (a) Corbyn has improved over the campaign and (b) people don't like Johnson either.

Corbyn's gone from -39 at the start of the campaign to -38 now. That's hardly a rounding error let alone improving!

That's because its partisan bullshit. it works both ways.

Corbyn was -60 at the end of October (having problems pasting the link on my phone, but do a Google search for the Mori political monitor). I am not trying to be partisan, I am trying to predict the result. I am a Labour supporter but any analysis as opposed to opinions/bantz is meant to be unbiased. I actually looked at the net favorability issue expecting to find it pointing to bigger leads, not leads in line with the polling average and with betting markets. Feel free to ignore it if you think it's bullshit.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Black_Rook said:

BannedinnParis said:

A week out in 2017 and you had stuff like this happening

https://www.getreading.co.uk/news/reading-berkshire-news/general-election-2017-thousands-turn-13118964

I've not seen anything like that this time around

Well, Corbyn is no longer the exciting new thing, is he?

Also it is really cold and it is dark in the evenings.

It doesn't stop people going to Christmas markets etc....

I have a feeling we won't be seeing a JezFest again anytime soon.

Philip_Thompson said:

JohnO said:

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/elashton/status/1202186385333063685

https://twitter.com/elashton/status/1202186951337631744

And both the candidate and the founder of Advance Together (sic) both have strong LibDem links. Astonishing, isn't it.

The Electoral Commission and the Police really should look into this if this has been done to double the per-seat campaign spend in these seats.

I'm sure the electoral commission will come down on it like a ton of cotton wool.

Jonathan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Ironically a huge Tory win could be doubly-good for the sanity of both parties.

In Labour it would force Labour to look into its soul and realise what has gone wrong.
In the Conservatives it would permit the PM to have some breathing space and not permit the ERG or other extreme wings to be able to veto policies.

Boris sacked the Tory one Nation wing and conspired with ERG to unseat May and win No10. Chips will be cashed. Your going to be disappointed.

No he didn't. He sacked extreme Europhile rebels. That has nothing to do with One Nation.

What makes you define One Nation as Phil Hammond?

OnlyLivingBoy said:

squareroot2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BannedinnParis said:

The favourability then (i.e. when the poll said a 16 point lead) was -9 to -38, what sort of lead does that suggest?

I no longer have the spreadsheet in front of me, sorry. But probably something like 11pp off the top of my head. Mori's net leader favorability is a much better predictor than their headline poll numbers. Net favorability for Johnson-Corbyn is much less advantageous for the Tories than for Thatcher-Foot, but their headline poll numbers suggest a 1983 style lead. Leader favorability isn't in landslide territory this time around because (a) Corbyn has improved over the campaign and (b) people don't like Johnson either.

Corbyn's gone from -39 at the start of the campaign to -38 now. That's hardly a rounding error let alone improving!

That's because its partisan bullshit. it works both ways.

Corbyn was -60 at the end of October (. I am not trying to be partisan, I am trying to predict the result. I am a Labour supporter but any analysis as opposed to opinions/bantz is meant to be unbiased. I actually looked at the net favorability issue expecting to find it pointing to bigger leads, not leads in line with the polling average and with betting markets. Feel free to ignore it if you think it's bullshit.

Are you sure that is the same polling company.

Philip_Thompson said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Maybe Raab is drawing all the heavy fire away from other more promising seats, like Guildford.

I think Raab will hang on in Esher, although I'm not sure that will be good for the government. While he was a great campaigner for Leave, I'm not convinced he's any more than adequate as Foreign Secretary.

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Maybe Raab is drawing all the heavy fire away from other more promising seats, like Guildford.

I think Raab will hang on in Esher, although I'm not sure that will be good for the government. While he was a great campaigner for Leave, I'm not convinced he's any more than adequate as Foreign Secretary.

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Maybe Raab is drawing all the heavy fire away from other more promising seats, like Guildford.

I think Raab will hang on in Esher, although I'm not sure that will be good for the government. While he was a great campaigner for Leave, I'm not convinced he's any more than adequate as Foreign Secretary.

He might be reshuffled very quickly. His current cabinet was about winning the Tory leadership and the election campaign.

Boris is someone who thinks loyalty only works one way so if he wins big (huge if) I expect a significant one.

Ironically a huge Tory win could be doubly-good for the sanity of both parties.

In Labour it would force Labour to look into its soul and realise what has gone wrong.
In the Conservatives it would permit the PM to have some breathing space and not permit the ERG or other extreme wings to be able to veto policies.

The current Labour membership is more interested in grievance politics and protesting than governing and running the country

LostPassword said:

@Jonathan - that's my view. Johnson has made his choice. After forcing several ex-Cabinet ministers out of the Parliamentary Party for not following the ERG line it's not credible to think that he can change tack now.

His ideological purge was brutal. People somehow overlook it. There is a denial cult forming around Boris just as potent as the Corbyn cult. Like a soap opera battered spouse, they know Boris is a bad news but hope he will come good one day despite the black eye.