politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » History of the Political Punter: Always Expect the Unexpected

SouthamObserver said:

He hasn't issued a correction. Yes, I am deeply frustrated that thanks to the Labour membership someone so lightweight, lazy and mendacious as Johnson will be running the country for the next few years. I think it will cause deep harm.

The actual quote from the Mail article:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7742411/BORIS-JOHNSON-end-early-release-terrorists-violent-offenders.html
“The terrorist on London Bridge was sentenced 11 years ago under laws passed in 2008 which established automatic early release. This system has got to end – I repeat, this has got to end, as I’ve been saying for four months. “
Given that 11 years ago was 2008, is that not just as likely to be a typo as a deliberate lie?

Is this real?

https://twitter.com/hasanthehun/status/1201083515325992960?s=20

AlastairMeeks said:

I really enjoyed this article. Thank you.

My sweetest personal memory is of the 2010 general election. In truth, I have relatively few insights and all of the really good ones have seemed blindingly obvious at the time. In 2010, at a time when the opinion polls showed a statistical dead heat between the Conservatives, Labour and the Lib Dems with three weeks to go to the election date, you could get odds against a hung Parliament. The betting markets had simply been too slow to catch up with the new reality.

I think I must personally have helped moved the odds with the amount of money I bet on this, putting the maximum I was allowed on with every single bookie that offered odds on the proposition. To this day, it remains one of my top three most successful betting positions ever.

If only the odds in 2019 were so clearly wrong. Annoyingly, the odds on the Conservatives getting an overall majority of roughly 1/2 on Betfair look about right given the information we currently have.

The outcome will seem obvious in retrospect, I'm sure.

I know virtually nothing about anything.

What I'm not entirely bad at though is recognising those who do and reading the broad runes of British elections.

I only broke even in 2017 because I entered the spread markets at the 11th hour. All my bookie and constituency bets yielded several hundred quid.

HYUFD said:

Had a productive morning getting Eleanor Laing posters up around Epping

Found somebody yesterday who was pissed at a small forest of LibDem orange diamonds nearby. Wants a fuck-off massive Tory one to show they don't completely win the poster wars!

Unlike previous general elections, there have been some great articles on here recently. I normally skip over @Cyclefree and @AlastairMeeks 's stuff because they tend to be think pieces, but recently they did ones[1][2] that were great, and I was recently struck by the goodness of @GreenMachine's entry (there are many other good authors, but there's not enough room: sorry if I left you out!)
So believe me when I say that today's article[4] by Anthony Broxton is really rather good and his blog[6] and twitter[5] are just as good. Well done Anthony.

* 1] http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/11/08/foxes-and-hedgehogs/
* [2] http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/11/06/a-future-history-of-labours-election-in-ten-seats/
* [3] http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/11/10/can-anyone-challenge-the-green-and-orange-waves/
* [4] http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/12/01/history-of-the-political-punter-always-expect-the-unexpected/
* [5] https://tidesofhistory.wordpress.com/
* [6] https://twitter.com/labour_history?lang=en

The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).

This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.

Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.

Theuniondivvie said:

Sandpit said:

SouthamObserver said:

He hasn't issued a correction. Yes, I am deeply frustrated that thanks to the Labour membership someone so lightweight, lazy and mendacious as Johnson will be running the country for the next few years. I think it will cause deep harm.

The actual quote from the Mail article:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7742411/BORIS-JOHNSON-end-early-release-terrorists-violent-offenders.html
“The terrorist on London Bridge was sentenced 11 years ago under laws passed in 2008 which established automatic early release. This system has got to end – I repeat, this has got to end, as I’ve been saying for four months. “
Given that 11 years ago was 2008, is that not just as likely to be a typo as a deliberate lie?

Yep, and every bloke that comes into A&E with his dick in a Dyson just had an accident while hoovering in the nude.

That hasn't happened to you?

Theuniondivvie said:

Sandpit said:

SouthamObserver said:

He hasn't issued a correction. Yes, I am deeply frustrated that thanks to the Labour membership someone so lightweight, lazy and mendacious as Johnson will be running the country for the next few years. I think it will cause deep harm.

The actual quote from the Mail article:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7742411/BORIS-JOHNSON-end-early-release-terrorists-violent-offenders.html
“The terrorist on London Bridge was sentenced 11 years ago under laws passed in 2008 which established automatic early release. This system has got to end – I repeat, this has got to end, as I’ve been saying for four months. “
Given that 11 years ago was 2008, is that not just as likely to be a typo as a deliberate lie?

Yep, and every bloke that comes into A&E with his dick in a Dyson just had an accident while hoovering in the nude.

LOL that was funny.

Casino_Royale said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Sandpit said:

SouthamObserver said:

He hasn't issued a correction. Yes, I am deeply frustrated that thanks to the Labour membership someone so lightweight, lazy and mendacious as Johnson will be running the country for the next few years. I think it will cause deep harm.

The actual quote from the Mail article:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7742411/BORIS-JOHNSON-end-early-release-terrorists-violent-offenders.html
“The terrorist on London Bridge was sentenced 11 years ago under laws passed in 2008 which established automatic early release. This system has got to end – I repeat, this has got to end, as I’ve been saying for four months. “
Given that 11 years ago was 2008, is that not just as likely to be a typo as a deliberate lie?

Yep, and every bloke that comes into A&E with his dick in a Dyson just had an accident while hoovering in the nude.

That hasn't happened to you?

Actually that's reminded me, one of today's tasks is the hoovering. Fully clothed with a Shark for avoidance of doubt.

Presumably inundted, the BBC have already put up a page where you can register your complaint about Andrew Marr's handling of the Prime Minister. For those interested:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/contact/andrew-marr-notification/#/Notification

HYUFD said:

Stocky said:

HYUFD said:

Had a productive morning getting Eleanor Laing posters up around Epping

HYUFD: how safe do you sense Dominic Raab is?

Less safe than Robert Halfon and Eleanor Laing or even IDS I will put it like that but I think he will scrape home

I thought that Momentum were putting a lot of effort into this constituency, but Raab looks to be under threat from the LibDems?

funkhauser said:

Endillion said:

NickPalmer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

wooliedyed said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

My feeling with Johnson is that he's just utterly out of his depth - and that's what makes it ever so more tragic that he's managed to become the PM.

He was mayor of London for 8 years and has held two of the great offices of state.
Corbyn makes jam.

Johnson's record in London is of utter failure, I'm not really sure you want to use that as an example of why he's not out of his depth.

You would say that but he won two elections for Mayor

Yes, but do you count that as "success"? A difference here across parties is between people who feel that their side winning is what really matters on the understandable basis that if you never win you never do anything), and people who feel there's little point in winning if your side is actually pretty bad and will do harm to the country and their party's reputation.

Personally I think that ability to win is a desirable but insufficient reason to lead, and being bad at the job outweighs being good at getting it.

The murder rate reduced substantially during his tenure, at a time when police funding was under some pressure. It had been pretty flat under Livingstone, and has subsequently increased under Khan. I count that as "success".

Johnson's record

-Road traffic fatalities cut by 50%

That just mirrors the national fall that took place from '08 to '10

BluerBlue said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).

This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.

Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.

Didn't you say all the polls last night would come in with a 5-7 point lead?

I'm totally relaxed if the rest of the campaign is spent talking about national security issues, which is just about Corbyn's weakest point. What lost May credibility in 2017 was the fact that there was a second attack of horrifying scale and effect that made it look as if the Tories were losing control of events -thus turning their usual strength on national security into a weakness.

The speed and efficiency with which the latest outrage was dealt with by the police doesn't open up the same political vulnerabilities.

Maybe I over-reacted a tad, but there are worrying signs, lots of polls now in the 5-9% range.

FrancisUrquhart said:

BluerBlue said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).

This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.

Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.

Didn't you say all the polls last night would come in with a 5-7 point lead?

I'm totally relaxed if the rest of the campaign is spent talking about national security issues, which is just about Corbyn's weakest point. What lost May credibility in 2017 was the fact that there was a second attack of horrifying scale and effect that made it look as if the Tories were losing control of events -thus turning their usual strength on national security into a weakness.

The speed and efficiency with which the latest outrage was dealt with by the police doesn't open up the same political vulnerabilities.

Maybe I over-reacted a tad, but there are worrying signs, lots of polls now in the 5-9% range.

None as low as five...

Anthony Broxton.
Complimenti. I think the finest and the most thoroughly enjoyable article I have read on pcCOM in my 15 years of checking out the site most days.

FrancisUrquhart said:

BluerBlue said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).

This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.

Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.

Didn't you say all the polls last night would come in with a 5-7 point lead?

I'm totally relaxed if the rest of the campaign is spent talking about national security issues, which is just about Corbyn's weakest point. What lost May credibility in 2017 was the fact that there was a second attack of horrifying scale and effect that made it look as if the Tories were losing control of events -thus turning their usual strength on national security into a weakness.

The speed and efficiency with which the latest outrage was dealt with by the police doesn't open up the same political vulnerabilities.

Maybe I over-reacted a tad, but there are worrying signs, lots of polls now in the 5-9% range.

2 were, and YouGov has good non-VI for Bozza. May was losing a lot of the non-VI head to heads with Jez by this point.

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BluerBlue said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).

This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.

Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.

Didn't you say all the polls last night would come in with a 5-7 point lead?

I'm totally relaxed if the rest of the campaign is spent talking about national security issues, which is just about Corbyn's weakest point. What lost May credibility in 2017 was the fact that there was a second attack of horrifying scale and effect that made it look as if the Tories were losing control of events -thus turning their usual strength on national security into a weakness.

The speed and efficiency with which the latest outrage was dealt with by the police doesn't open up the same political vulnerabilities.

Maybe I over-reacted a tad, but there are worrying signs, lots of polls now in the 5-9% range.

2 were, and YouGov has good non-VI for Bozza. May was losing a lot of the non-VI head to heads with Jez by this point.

The only one minor positive I saw from a brief look at the polling was Jezza's personal rating on one had slipped nearly back to where it started the campaign.

noneoftheabove said:

LostPassword said:

noneoftheabove said:

Sandpit said:

SouthamObserver said:

He hasn't issued a correction. Yes, I am deeply frustrated that thanks to the Labour membership someone so lightweight, lazy and mendacious as Johnson will be running the country for the next few years. I think it will cause deep harm.

The actual quote from the Mail article:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7742411/BORIS-JOHNSON-end-early-release-terrorists-violent-offenders.html
“The terrorist on London Bridge was sentenced 11 years ago under laws passed in 2008 which established automatic early release. This system has got to end – I repeat, this has got to end, as I’ve been saying for four months. “
Given that 11 years ago was 2008, is that not just as likely to be a typo as a deliberate lie?

No, look at the number of times it is happening, almost all their press coverage starts with a lie. The media then correct it, Labour make a fuss, elevate the story that the Tories want to cover that day to the top of the news. Job done, and voters dont care as they assume all politicians are liars anyway.

Many people will end up believing the lie and see the correction from the media as "bias from the media". Johnson is importing much of the worst of Republican politics, including the dishonesty over deficit-spending.

It is certainly bad for government efficiency and accountability and trust in politics. Not sure how we can correct it either. A grim decade for liberal democracies.

As I said yesterday, the Labour onslaught of bribes has come to and end and they are about 10 points off the lead. Boris is more trusted on security which is the topic of the next week or so.
We're in a much better position than we were in 2017.

Theuniondivvie said:

Is this real?

https://twitter.com/hasanthehun/status/1201083515325992960?s=20

He's a creepy creepy man. This is not new news, it's been discussed on PB, and anyone who has bet despite it has made a grave error.

Burgon representing the Labour Party on telly tonight. We've had a terrorist outrage, the PM went on Marr this morning absurdly trying to blame the last Labour government for it. And what's Labours response?
Put the Shadow Justice Secretary on TV. Yes folks. We've got terrorists released on license macheteing people wearing a tag. And Labour want to improve this fiasco by applying Burgon to the job.
I wouldn't trust Burgon to switch the light on.

RochdalePioneers said:

Burgon representing the Labour Party on telly tonight. We've had a terrorist outrage, the PM went on Marr this morning absurdly trying to blame the last Labour government for it. And what's Labours response?
Put the Shadow Justice Secretary on TV. Yes folks. We've got terrorists released on license macheteing people wearing a tag. And Labour want to improve this fiasco by applying Burgon to the job.
I wouldn't trust Burgon to switch the light on.

Couple of weeks and he could be a minister making crucial decisions....

"Should convicted terrorists serve their full sentence?"

Isn't there a legal problem with this? Most terrorists are convicted of murder, manslaughter or attempted murder, not of "terrorist murder". What kind of law can the government pass to make this mandatory for convited terrorists? Either a judge has to include in the sentence that this criminal is a terrorist, in which case it is not mandatory, or the home secretary has to scrap the parole system completely.

Floater said:

wooliedyed said:

Are Labour and Corbyn anti-Jewish? @DeltapollUK, 750 sample % https://t.co/99HkkjilDp https://t.co/iqv0CNLJfN

But, but Miriam said

Even 49% of Labour voters think the party is anti semitic

They may see it as a positive...

Stocky said:

HYUFD said:

Stocky said:

HYUFD said:

Had a productive morning getting Eleanor Laing posters up around Epping

HYUFD: how safe do you sense Dominic Raab is?

Less safe than Robert Halfon and Eleanor Laing or even IDS I will put it like that but I think he will scrape home

I thought that Momentum were putting a lot of effort into this constituency, but Raab looks to be under threat from the LibDems?

And the LDs will get more tactical votes from Labour and Remainer Tories to defeat Raab than Corbyn Labour will get from the LDs and Remainer Tories to defeat IDS

FrancisUrquhart said:

The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).

This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.

Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.

So crap the Tories now have a bigger lead than they did at the same stage of the 2017 campaign for the first time

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).

This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.

Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.

So crap the Tories now have a bigger lead than they did at the same stage of the 2017 campaign for the first time

Come on...they are running against bloody Jezza and Marxist McDonnell and team moron...they should be so far ahead the result isn't in doubt. Instead some polls have it as close as 5% and all see the gap closing fast.

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).

This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.

Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.

So crap the Tories now have a bigger lead than they did at the same stage of the 2017 campaign for the first time

Come on...they are running against bloody Jezza and Marxist McDonnell and team moron...they should be so far ahead the result isn't in doubt. Instead some polls have it as close as 5% and all see the gap closing fast.

which one has a gap of 5 %?

eristdoof said:

"Should convicted terrorists serve their full sentence?"

Isn't there a legal problem with this? Most terrorists are convicted of murder, manslaughter or attempted murder, not of "terrorist murder". What kind of law can the government pass to make this mandatory for convited terrorists? Either a judge has to include in the sentence that this criminal is a terrorist, in which case it is not mandatory, or the home secretary has to scrap the parole system completely.

Id imagine most terrorists are convicted of terrorism offences not murder. Also offences such as murder do already get marked by the courts if there are links to terrorism.

eristdoof said:

kle4 said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/1201097388447940608

Average lead of, what, 6, in 2017 at the end, reduced to 2 in the actual vote. Corbyn's future will depend on outperforming even the narrowing polls (eg if the average lead is 8, he really needs the vote to be 4-5 at worst).

That 4 point drop at the end is is very conspicuous, and we should not forget that the last point (+2 for the tories) was the exit poll/result. The drop is the size of the bias in the pre-election polls last time. We have no way of knowing how large this bias is this time.

or, as in 2015, its in a different direction altogether.

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).

This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.

Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.

So crap the Tories now have a bigger lead than they did at the same stage of the 2017 campaign for the first time

Come on...they are running against bloody Jezza and Marxist McDonnell and team moron...they should be so far ahead the result isn't in doubt. Instead some polls have it as close as 5% and all see the gap closing fast.

Why? This is a Brexit election and Leave won by 4% and Labour is squeezing the LD Remain vote.

If the Tories win it will be due to Labour Leave voters in the North, the Midlands and Wales going Brexit Party or Tory

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).

This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.

Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.

So crap the Tories now have a bigger lead than they did at the same stage of the 2017 campaign for the first time

Come on...they are running against bloody Jezza and Marxist McDonnell and team moron...they should be so far ahead the result isn't in doubt. Instead some polls have it as close as 5% and all see the gap closing fast.

Why? This is a Brexit election and Leave won by 4% and Labour is squeezing the LD Remain vote.

If the Tories win it will be due to Labour Leave voters in the North, the Midlands and Wales going Brexit Party or Tory

The Tories have enabled Labour to do that. A more component campaign would have put so much doubt in voters mind that they would be splitting Remain across Lib Dem / Labour far more.

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).

This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.

Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.

So crap the Tories now have a bigger lead than they did at the same stage of the 2017 campaign for the first time

Come on...they are running against bloody Jezza and Marxist McDonnell and team moron...they should be so far ahead the result isn't in doubt. Instead some polls have it as close as 5% and all see the gap closing fast.

One poll has us at 6%.

I know, I fat fingered. But my point still stands. 6 bloody percent, against not just uncle thickie, but excluding the McDonnell, the rest of Red Team don't have a brain cell to rub together.

Blair, Bad Al and Mandy if working for Team Blue would absolutely have destroyed them. Every day Labour have announced a new fantasy set of pledges and the Tories response is muted. Bad Al would have had the troops out on message all across the media shredding it within minutes.

The Tories are already polling 43%, a total they have not surpassed since since 1970, there is little higher they can go.

No, but you can destroy the credibility of your main opponent such that their vote splits. Instead, the Tories have allowed Labour to play to both Remain and Leave and also put out a whole range of fantasy policies to try and convince especially working class voters that let Uncle Jezza in charge and you will still get Brexit plus a load of freebies.

New Labour were brilliant at that. The Tories credibility was shot before any GE, meaning they ended up boxed in fighting Labour and the Lib Dems.

The 'Next Labour Leader' market is under the radar atm but there has been a big move there. Starmer is now a very clear and short priced favourite. Perhaps it does not have to be a woman after all.

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).

This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.

Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.

So crap the Tories now have a bigger lead than they did at the same stage of the 2017 campaign for the first time

Come on...they are running against bloody Jezza and Marxist McDonnell and team moron...they should be so far ahead the result isn't in doubt. Instead some polls have it as close as 5% and all see the gap closing fast.

One poll has us at 6%.

I know, I fat fingered. But my point still stands. 6 bloody percent, against not just uncle thickie, but excluding the McDonnell, the rest of Red Team don't have a brain cell to rub together.

Blair, Bad Al and Mandy if working for Team Blue would absolutely have destroyed them. Every day Labour have announced a new fantasy set of pledges and the Tories response is muted. Bad Al would have had the troops out on message all across the media shredding it within minutes.

The Tories are already polling 43%, a total they have not surpassed since since 1970, there is little higher they can go.

No, but you can destroy the credibility of your main opponent such that their vote splits. Instead, the Tories have allowed Labour to play to both Remain and Leave and also put out a whole range of fantasy policies to try and convince especially working class voters that let Uncle Jezza in charge and you will still get Brexit plus a load of freebies.

New Labour were brilliant at that. The Tories credibility was shot before any GE, meaning they ended up boxed in fighting Labour and the Lib Dems.

Yougov MRP has the Tories gaining 44 mainly Labour Leave seats

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).

This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.

Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.

So crap the Tories now have a bigger lead than they did at the same stage of the 2017 campaign for the first time

Come on...they are running against bloody Jezza and Marxist McDonnell and team moron...they should be so far ahead the result isn't in doubt. Instead some polls have it as close as 5% and all see the gap closing fast.

Why? This is a Brexit election and Leave won by 4% and Labour is squeezing the LD Remain vote.

If the Tories win it will be due to Labour Leave voters in the North, the Midlands and Wales going Brexit Party or Tory

Indeed. Approx 43% is an awfully high score to be losing, and approx 34% is an awfully low score to be winning.

BannedinnParis said:

eristdoof said:

kle4 said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/1201097388447940608

Average lead of, what, 6, in 2017 at the end, reduced to 2 in the actual vote. Corbyn's future will depend on outperforming even the narrowing polls (eg if the average lead is 8, he really needs the vote to be 4-5 at worst).

That 4 point drop at the end is is very conspicuous, and we should not forget that the last point (+2 for the tories) was the exit poll/result. The drop is the size of the bias in the pre-election polls last time. We have no way of knowing how large this bias is this time.

or, as in 2015, its in a different direction altogether.

Of course. It means that the actual margin of error is considerably higher than the pollsters claim.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/skynewsbreak/status/1201058350831681536?s=21

Correct

Corbyn has been forced into saying that. He does not believe that for one second.
A terminological inexactitude.. Some on SO.... Call him out on it

FrancisUrquhart said:

kinabalu said:

The 'Next Labour Leader' market is under the radar atm but there has been a big move there. Starmer is now a very clear and short priced favourite. Perhaps it does not have to be a woman after all.

I really can't see how the membership will go for him. He is surely far too centrist for their liking.

I guess that depends on how badly Labour lose. A big loss certainly isn’t off the cards, given the potential problem some of the pollsters have with recall weighting.

If Labour lose bad, Starmer has attraction as a leading moderate. Although in their position I might be tempted to give Cooper another look and tick off the female leader box at the same time.

Starmer’s weaknesses for that gig is that he’s a technocrat with no sign of the ideology nor the gumption to play from the Kinnock playbook.

Jason said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).

This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.

Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.

So crap the Tories now have a bigger lead than they did at the same stage of the 2017 campaign for the first time

Come on...they are running against bloody Jezza and Marxist McDonnell and team moron...they should be so far ahead the result isn't in doubt. Instead some polls have it as close as 5% and all see the gap closing fast.

Why? This is a Brexit election and Leave won by 4% and Labour is squeezing the LD Remain vote.

If the Tories win it will be due to Labour Leave voters in the North, the Midlands and Wales going Brexit Party or Tory

The Tories have enabled Labour to do that. A more component campaign would have put so much doubt in voters mind that they would be splitting Remain across Lib Dem / Labour far more.

I agree to an extent abut this. But I still think the media in general do not think Corbyn will become PM because surely their preposterous manifesto would have been eviscerated by any number of commentators. The WASPI bung was the most shameless piece of electoral politics I can ever recall. But...I agree it has not been a great Tory campaign by any means, although its caution and timidity has been greatly dictated by the events of 2017.

Remember this Francis - Labour got 40% then and still only got 262 seats. Unless there is a dramatic collapse in Tory support, they'll do enough IMO.

As stated a couple of posts above, a win for Labour is another hung parliament. My ideal result would have been Labour stuffed with Lib Dems nearly matching them, and Corbynonmics assigned to the bin.

The best we can hope for is a small Tory majority, shift forward on Brexit, and then hopefully Tories / Lib Dems can start to get back to talking about improving the country via capitalism. Not a return to the 70s.

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kinabalu said:

The 'Next Labour Leader' market is under the radar atm but there has been a big move there. Starmer is now a very clear and short priced favourite. Perhaps it does not have to be a woman after all.

I really can't see how the membership will go for him. He is surely far too centrist for their liking.

I guess that depends on how badly Labour lose. A big loss certainly isn’t off the cards, given the potential problem some of the pollsters have with recall weighting.

If Labour lose bad, Starmer has attraction as a leading moderate. Although in their position I might be tempted to give Cooper another look and tick off the female leader box at the same time.

Starmer’s weaknesses for that gig is that he’s a technocrat with no sign of the ideology nor the gumption to play from the Kinnock playbook.

I am not really a fan of Starmer, but I am far more comfortable with somebody like him or Cooper than a mini-me Jezza.

IanB2 said:

I guess that depends on how badly Labour lose. A big loss certainly isn’t off the cards, given the potential problem some of the pollsters have with recall weighting.
If Labour lose bad, Starmer has attraction as a leading moderate. Although in their position I might be tempted to give Cooper another look and tick off the female leader box at the same time.
Starmer’s weaknesses for that gig is that he’s a technocrat with no sign of the ideology nor the gumption to play from the Kinnock playbook.

Your 2nd para is the rationale for one of the highly speculative 3 digit odds bets I like to have from time to time. Cooper for next PM.

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).

This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.

Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.

So crap the Tories now have a bigger lead than they did at the same stage of the 2017 campaign for the first time

Calling the election when they did is the only thing the Tories did right. Since then, Bozo has repeated all of Mrs M’s mistakes except for promising to deprive the oldies of their life savings, something a primary school child could have avoided after last time.

matt said:

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kinabalu said:

The 'Next Labour Leader' market is under the radar atm but there has been a big move there. Starmer is now a very clear and short priced favourite. Perhaps it does not have to be a woman after all.

I really can't see how the membership will go for him. He is surely far too centrist for their liking.

I guess that depends on how badly Labour lose. A big loss certainly isn’t off the cards, given the potential problem some of the pollsters have with recall weighting.

If Labour lose bad, Starmer has attraction as a leading moderate. Although in their position I might be tempted to give Cooper another look and tick off the female leader box at the same time.

Starmer’s weaknesses for that gig is that he’s a technocrat with no sign of the ideology nor the gumption to play from the Kinnock playbook.

Lawyers are generally good at following instructions and clever wordplay. It is very rare to see a lawyer as a great leader though. Starmer’s time as Head of the CPS doesn’t seem to have been a time of great leadership there, and indeed the bar is not really a team-work based environment. I appreciate that people can develop but examples of leadership would be useful to see.

Ask TSE about his time at the CPS>

eristdoof said:

BannedinnParis said:

eristdoof said:

kle4 said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/1201097388447940608

Average lead of, what, 6, in 2017 at the end, reduced to 2 in the actual vote. Corbyn's future will depend on outperforming even the narrowing polls (eg if the average lead is 8, he really needs the vote to be 4-5 at worst).

That 4 point drop at the end is is very conspicuous, and we should not forget that the last point (+2 for the tories) was the exit poll/result. The drop is the size of the bias in the pre-election polls last time. We have no way of knowing how large this bias is this time.

or, as in 2015, its in a different direction altogether.

Of course. It means that the actual margin of error is considerably higher than the pollsters claim.

I'd be a wee bit careful there.

There's a random sampling error - i.e. if you randomly pick x % of the population, you could get a range of results. I think this is broadly well described - ca. 2 % error.

There's also a series of systemic errors - i.e. companies add their own fudge factors, there's clearly a sense of not wanting to stand from the crowd in there, that's just the tip of the iceberg.

The systemic errors have changed in three different directions in the last 3 elections (2010 - overrated LD, 2015 - underestimating Con, 2017 - underestimating Lab).

The one near-consistent is Labour recovering from historic lows to be competitive - 2010, 2017 and 2019. Something similar may have happened for the Tories in 2015 tbf, but none of the companies saw it ...

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).

This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.

Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.

So crap the Tories now have a bigger lead than they did at the same stage of the 2017 campaign for the first time

Calling the election when they did is the only thing the Tories did right. Since then, Bozo has repeated all of Mrs M’s mistakes except for promising to deprive the oldies of their life savings, something a primary school child could have avoided after last time.

The CON campaign is much more similar to 2015 than 2017. Much more.

At this point in 2017, you'd started getting the blame spreading stories.

Apropos of nowt, have a look at which party is leaking those types of stories at the moment.

NorthernPowerhouse said:

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kinabalu said:

The 'Next Labour Leader' market is under the radar atm but there has been a big move there. Starmer is now a very clear and short priced favourite. Perhaps it does not have to be a woman after all.

I really can't see how the membership will go for him. He is surely far too centrist for their liking.

I guess that depends on how badly Labour lose. A big loss certainly isn’t off the cards, given the potential problem some of the pollsters have with recall weighting.

If Labour lose bad, Starmer has attraction as a leading moderate. Although in their position I might be tempted to give Cooper another look and tick off the female leader box at the same time.

Starmer’s weaknesses for that gig is that he’s a technocrat with no sign of the ideology nor the gumption to play from the Kinnock playbook.

Corbyn and his army only need to get more than the 243 seats they currently have to convince themselves they have won and the ideology will continue. If Corbyn pulls back to his 2017 seat count he will be a hero, it will be considered a Blair style landslide of unprecedented epic proportions.

Yes, I think we can all see Labour cheering their fourth consecutive election defeat.

Labour has learned something. Diane Abbott is nowhere to be seen...

MikeL said:

Deltapoll still not added to Wiki poll list.

I'm looking at the raw data for that.

Things that stand out

"For each of the following party leaders, do
you think they are doing very well in their
job, quite well, quite badly or very badly?"

by age

BJ (+2 over entire sample)

18 - 24: -7
25 - 34: -14
35 - 54: -6
55 - 64: +19
65 + : +19

JC (-39 over entire sample)

18 - 24: +14
25 - 34: -4
35 - 54: -18
55 - 64: -41
65 + : -43

They also split vote share by seat type - safe lab, lab leading, con leading, safe con. Yeah, talk about stacking votes where it don't matter.