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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » History of the Political Punter: Always Expect the Unexpected
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » History of the Political Punter: Always Expect the Unexpected
The modern era of big, open, political betting began in 1963 when Ron Pollard of Ladbrokes offered odds on the Conservative leadership contest for the ordinary punter. It was a dismal start as the 5/4 favourite Rab Butler was beaten by the 16/1 shot Alec Douglas-Home.
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The only thing missing is the (1997 excepted) constant over-optimism on LD seat numbers.
It's too soon to write off a Conservative majority. However, I'm certain the country is not in landslide mood. I base that on things I'm picking up, including a fairly astonishing moment (to me) yesterday afternoon when a group of young professional men, with property investment, began laying into the Conservatives. I lived through the 1997 election and this is NOT 1997. For all the dislike of Corbyn there is also considerable antipathy towards Boris Johnson & chums.
All I will state is that the two most extraordinary polls last night were the constituency ones of Portsmouth South and Esher & Walton. Tactical Voting, including Remain anger, will be a significant feature in this General Election.
For this reason I continue to believe we will have a hung parliament and I am betting accordingly.
Very interesting article, Mr. Broxton.
But I disagree. Two reasons:
1. I think polling and betting tends to oscillate. 2017 too optimistic on Conservative position. 2015 too pessimistic. 2010 too optimistic.
2. I believe most people do actually want to get Brexit behind us. Only Johnson offers that. (Although I'm going to break with tradition and say the LDs will be the major benificiaries.)
BETTING POST
Keep an eye on East Devon constituency where the Independent candidate Claire Wright is fighting the new Conservative replacement for Hugo Swire. I've seen no polling (MRP is useless in this regard) but Claire Wright definitely has traction. The young professional men I mentioned below who were laying into the tories came from her constituency.
I'm not suggesting she will do it but you can get 7/4 and I think it might be worth a small flutter.
The amazing result was not 2015 but 2017, where the LDs lost one-in-ten of their voters but increased their seat count 50%. (And could easily have ended up 75% up.)
When I was 16 a wonderful teacher lent me a book called Homer on Life and Death. It was by Jasper Griffin, who died last Friday aged 82.
I turned the pages, and pow, it was like that moment when Keats first understands the majesty and beauty of the Homeric epics. I was the astronomer who sees a new planet. I was the explorer staring at a new ocean.
Suddenly Griffin made sense of it all for my teenage mind. Agamemnon and Achilles were really like teenage gang rivals – one the titular leader, the other more charismatic and better at fighting.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/obituaries/2019/11/29/boris-johnsonon-professor-jasper-griffin-taught-heroes-life/
Go and have a coffee and wake yourself up.
Impressive work from those (@Barnesian et al) trying to model the election, an election where the traditional UNS models are clearly not going to work, where there’s lots of local issues, MPs changing party, and Brexit still being unresolved has moved loyalties in different directions.
Personally I can’t get too involved in betting on this one - too busy with work and family problems to do it properly, and I lost money in 2017 so a little wary of doing it half-heartedly!
The country is also pro-Remain by 52-48%.
Both the LibDems (Revoke) and Labour (Good deal vs Remain) offer perfectly coherent and sensible ways of 'getting Brexit behind us.'
She reminds me of Lynne Featherstone in Hornsey & Wood Green, where she's campaigned and campaigned and campaigned.
I have no idea what her policies are, but I generally think independents are a good thing, so support her regardless
I actually quite specifically said people will read into last night's polls what they will and there's something there for everyone.
If you're in attack dog mode at least find good grounds. Don't be desperate.
Totally agree about Independents and it would be really good to have some elected rather than those crossing the floor of the House.
I think the key takeaway from the polls right now is Tories are generally low 40s, Labour generally low 30s.
That was also true last time at this stage, and it changed.
But if it doesn't change, it is totally impossible to see any result other than a Tory majority.
Labour need to be getting up towards 39 at least (in the end they clocked just over 40 on the mainland in 2017). So far, they seem to be struggling to cut through.
The common factor is that the Tory campaign is once again poor, if not plumbing the depths of self-destructiveness that Mrs M managed to achieve. The reason there’s a feeling that the Tories won’t win by much is that a lot of people don’t really want to vote for them, don’t like Bozo, are nervous about Brexit, but haven’t been inspired by any of the opposition parties to vote for anyone else.
Much as I would love to be cracking a drink and watching the Tories lose their (expected) majority on the 12th, my money is still on a workable majority. The real fun with the Tories starts thereafter. If I were still a councillor I would be smiling about my reelection prospects.
There is plenty of disdain for the Tories even of those contemptuous of other options. The idea that this election will lance the boil of people vs parliament is nonsense. It will exacerbate our disconnect.
I think Boris Johnson will get himself a majority at pretty much exactly the wrong time.
Labour sent out a leaflet just before campaign limits kicked in.
Nothing from the Tories.
Everyone seems to think Cannock Chase is only going one way, which given the margin it voted Leave by isn't perhaps surprising but is frustrating.
Any type majority is right on the money for me.
The far right opposition AFD meanwhile elects East German former painter and decorator Tino Chrupalla to be its joint leader with Joerg Meuthen.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-50616566
What happens after is irrelevant, no Tory government since Lord Liverpool 200 years ago has won a fifth term or an election after 14 years in power as the Tories would have to do in 2024.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
He has done so much for education in Africa !!!!!!
Jeremy Corbyn, who is being interviewed by Sophy Ridge on Sky, is being asked whether he supports a shoot-to-kill policy and questioned on whether he supports the police decision to shoot dead London Bridge attacker Usman Khan.
"I think they had no choice, they were stuck with a situation where there was a credible threat," he says.
"Its an awful situation for any police officer... to be put in."
Referring to his previous remarks about shoot-to-kill, he says: "The points I made in the past particularly in relation to Northern Ireland - this is going back quite a long way - was that there was a concern in Northern Ireland that the police were adopting a shoot-to-kill policy when it was possible to arrest people rather than shoot people."
That , despite his claims, represents a definite change of view.
He’s right on both, incidentally, which is something I don’t say often. But at the same time, that’s not what he’s said before.
Labour got caught the other way in 1950 - they expected a substantial majority and it was cut to six seats.
Many thanks.
I've collated polling data on the mean Conservative lead, in fortnightly blocks, in all national VI polls since Boris Johnson became Prime Minister. Polls are grouped by the dates on which fieldwork was completed. I've also given the dates of notable events, as follows:
Fieldwork dates ending:
Jul 14 - Jul 27: Con +3.0% (7 polls)
Jo Swinson becomes Liberal Democrat leader (22 July)
Boris Johnson becomes Conservative leader and Prime Minister (23/24 July)
Jul 28 - Aug 10: Con +6.2% (5 polls)
Last nationwide VI poll to show a Labour lead (28 July)
Brecon & Radnorshire by-election (1 August)
Aug 11 - Aug 24: Con +8.1% (8 polls)
Aug 25 - Sep 7: Con +7.7% (14 polls)
Withdrawal of the Tory whip from 21 Brexit rebels (3 September)
First failed attempt to call a General Election (6 September)
Sep 8 - Sep 21: Con +7.9% (10 polls)
Second failed attempt to call a General Election (9 September)
First prorogation (10 September)
Sep 22 - Oct 5: Con +9.7% (7 polls)
First prorogation annulled by Supreme Court (24 September)
Parliament reconvenes (25 September)
Oct 6 - Oct 19: Con +8.8% (11 polls)
Second prorogation (8 October)
State Opening of Parliament (14 October)
Oct 20 - Nov 2: Con +12.7% (14 polls)
House of Commons votes on the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (22 October)
Tory whip restored to 10 of the Brexit rebels (29 October)
House of Commons votes for an early General Election (30 October)
Nov 3 - Nov 16: Con + 10.9% (22 polls)
Dissolution of Parliament (6 November)
Nov 17 - Nov 30: Con +11.7% (24 polls)
First Johnson vs Corbyn TV debate (19 November)
Publication of YouGov MRP (27 November)
London Bridge terror attack (29 November)
Weekly averages covering the campaign period:
Nov 3 - Nov 9: Con +9.9% (10 polls)
Nov 10 - Nov 16: +11.8% (12 polls)
Nov 17 - Nov 23: +13.1% (14 polls)
Nov 24 - Nov 30: +9.7% (10 polls)
Observations:
1. The race has definitely tightened, but the Tory lead has only shrunk to about where it was at the time of the dissolution of Parliament. So far anyway.
2. The Liberal Democrat numbers for 24-30 November are remarkably consistent: out of ten surveys, one gives them 15%, one gives them 14%, and all the other eight show 13%. This may prove critical: if the Lib Dems have begun to flatline then Labour could struggle to make further progress - unless the ex-Labour voters who have deserted to the Tories over Corbyn and Brexit have an attack of the wobbles between now and polling day, which is by no means impossible.
THIS is why Boris will get a working majority.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/12/abu-dhabi-pre-race-2019.html
There's a special at Ladbrokes. 2.2 for Mercs/Red Bulls to be top 6 plus Williams double classified. Backed that.
https://twitter.com/colinrtalbot/status/1201052717373898752?s=21
How many letters from OGH has he received???
Have a good morning.
Will take a look at some other bets in the next couple of hours.
2. My reading of last night's polls was that this had happened a bit, and Labour Leavers were coming home. No idea whether they will continue, but if it's happened a little bit that makes it seem more likely than if it hadn't.
*Not a particularly good one though by all accounts.
The Arsenal job is like Man U, a hospital pass. Following SAF or Wenger is always going to be cursed. Pochettino, I think.
Outside of The Producers I don't think anyone is claiming Hitler was a painter except in the fine art sense.
This shift has come at the worst time for Corbyn whose history is not one that gives the public confidence he can keep us safe
I expect Boris will take advantage of this development but the one caveat is how he deals with the toxic Trump
If I remember correctly at least a couple of PB regulars who were party activists have stated here that they can't support the Conservative party in its current form but I'm not sure if they are going to DNV or Lib Dems - I assume Labour to be a step too far.
Does anyone have data/anecdote on how widespread this view is and where the votes are going? If a) significant in number and b) still not fully decided it could be another thing to factor into trying to spot late movements.
For the prime historic example of this look at the Liverpool Boot Room days. Shankly was a legendary manager but Paisley wasn't cursed because he followed him.
I don't think he did house painting either...
https://www.nationalgeographic.org/thisday/feb25/hitler-becomes-german/
He hated Socialism, but he was remarkably non-partisan in his respect for ability.
Leicester doesn't sell anyone we want to keep. See the Maguire and Mahrez sagas for details.