Wow. Has Corbyn had a big bet buying Tory seats perhaps?
Was that planned or is this Corbyn getting out of Dodge?
If they need a stand in, McDonnell (for all his faults and there are many) is by far their standout media performer and the most senior. Why not use him?
He hasn't issued a correction. Yes, I am deeply frustrated that thanks to the Labour membership someone so lightweight, lazy and mendacious as Johnson will be running the country for the next few years. I think it will cause deep harm.
The actual quote from the Mail article: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7742411/BORIS-JOHNSON-end-early-release-terrorists-violent-offenders.html “The terrorist on London Bridge was sentenced 11 years ago under laws passed in 2008 which established automatic early release. This system has got to end – I repeat, this has got to end, as I’ve been saying for four months. “ Given that 11 years ago was 2008, is that not just as likely to be a typo as a deliberate lie?
Moving the news onto getting tough on terrorism is a good place for the Tories (Now they're restoring the police numbers). I'm sure there'd be no real difference in practice with a Corbyn Gov't, but like the NHS for the Tories Labour just aren't overly trusted on this. None of it's fair but that's politics.
I actually think there would be a difference with a Labour Government.
Corbyn surrounded by the like of Seamus Milne, with their utter distrust of the established security services, would billow sail on anything terrorist related, offer no leadership, frustrate their work and grandstand against the West in public rather than take action. We have the precedent of how they "helped" the Remain campaign in 2016.
That would probably lead to people getting killed who wouldn't need to.
My sweetest personal memory is of the 2010 general election. In truth, I have relatively few insights and all of the really good ones have seemed blindingly obvious at the time. In 2010, at a time when the opinion polls showed a statistical dead heat between the Conservatives, Labour and the Lib Dems with three weeks to go to the election date, you could get odds against a hung Parliament. The betting markets had simply been too slow to catch up with the new reality.
I think I must personally have helped moved the odds with the amount of money I bet on this, putting the maximum I was allowed on with every single bookie that offered odds on the proposition. To this day, it remains one of my top three most successful betting positions ever.
If only the odds in 2019 were so clearly wrong. Annoyingly, the odds on the Conservatives getting an overall majority of roughly 1/2 on Betfair look about right given the information we currently have.
The outcome will seem obvious in retrospect, I'm sure.
I know virtually nothing about anything.
What I'm not entirely bad at though is recognising those who do and reading the broad runes of British elections.
I only broke even in 2017 because I entered the spread markets at the 11th hour. All my bookie and constituency bets yielded several hundred quid.
He hasn't issued a correction. Yes, I am deeply frustrated that thanks to the Labour membership someone so lightweight, lazy and mendacious as Johnson will be running the country for the next few years. I think it will cause deep harm.
The actual quote from the Mail article: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7742411/BORIS-JOHNSON-end-early-release-terrorists-violent-offenders.html “The terrorist on London Bridge was sentenced 11 years ago under laws passed in 2008 which established automatic early release. This system has got to end – I repeat, this has got to end, as I’ve been saying for four months. “ Given that 11 years ago was 2008, is that not just as likely to be a typo as a deliberate lie?
No, look at the number of times it is happening, almost all their press coverage starts with a lie. The media then correct it, Labour make a fuss, elevate the story that the Tories want to cover that day to the top of the news. Job done, and voters dont care as they assume all politicians are liars anyway.
Had a productive morning getting Eleanor Laing posters up around Epping
Found somebody yesterday who was pissed at a small forest of LibDem orange diamonds nearby. Wants a fuck-off massive Tory one to show they don't completely win the poster wars!
Unlike previous general elections, there have been some great articles on here recently. I normally skip over @Cyclefree and @AlastairMeeks 's stuff because they tend to be think pieces, but recently they did ones[1][2] that were great, and I was recently struck by the goodness of @GreenMachine's entry (there are many other good authors, but there's not enough room: sorry if I left you out!) So believe me when I say that today's article[4] by Anthony Broxton is really rather good and his blog[6] and twitter[5] are just as good. Well done Anthony.
He hasn't issued a correction. Yes, I am deeply frustrated that thanks to the Labour membership someone so lightweight, lazy and mendacious as Johnson will be running the country for the next few years. I think it will cause deep harm.
The actual quote from the Mail article: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7742411/BORIS-JOHNSON-end-early-release-terrorists-violent-offenders.html “The terrorist on London Bridge was sentenced 11 years ago under laws passed in 2008 which established automatic early release. This system has got to end – I repeat, this has got to end, as I’ve been saying for four months. “ Given that 11 years ago was 2008, is that not just as likely to be a typo as a deliberate lie?
Yep, and every bloke that comes into A&E with his dick in a Dyson just had an accident while hoovering in the nude.
The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).
This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.
Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.
He hasn't issued a correction. Yes, I am deeply frustrated that thanks to the Labour membership someone so lightweight, lazy and mendacious as Johnson will be running the country for the next few years. I think it will cause deep harm.
The actual quote from the Mail article: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7742411/BORIS-JOHNSON-end-early-release-terrorists-violent-offenders.html “The terrorist on London Bridge was sentenced 11 years ago under laws passed in 2008 which established automatic early release. This system has got to end – I repeat, this has got to end, as I’ve been saying for four months. “ Given that 11 years ago was 2008, is that not just as likely to be a typo as a deliberate lie?
Yep, and every bloke that comes into A&E with his dick in a Dyson just had an accident while hoovering in the nude.
He hasn't issued a correction. Yes, I am deeply frustrated that thanks to the Labour membership someone so lightweight, lazy and mendacious as Johnson will be running the country for the next few years. I think it will cause deep harm.
The actual quote from the Mail article: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7742411/BORIS-JOHNSON-end-early-release-terrorists-violent-offenders.html “The terrorist on London Bridge was sentenced 11 years ago under laws passed in 2008 which established automatic early release. This system has got to end – I repeat, this has got to end, as I’ve been saying for four months. “ Given that 11 years ago was 2008, is that not just as likely to be a typo as a deliberate lie?
Yep, and every bloke that comes into A&E with his dick in a Dyson just had an accident while hoovering in the nude.
He hasn't issued a correction. Yes, I am deeply frustrated that thanks to the Labour membership someone so lightweight, lazy and mendacious as Johnson will be running the country for the next few years. I think it will cause deep harm.
The actual quote from the Mail article: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7742411/BORIS-JOHNSON-end-early-release-terrorists-violent-offenders.html “The terrorist on London Bridge was sentenced 11 years ago under laws passed in 2008 which established automatic early release. This system has got to end – I repeat, this has got to end, as I’ve been saying for four months. “ Given that 11 years ago was 2008, is that not just as likely to be a typo as a deliberate lie?
Yep, and every bloke that comes into A&E with his dick in a Dyson just had an accident while hoovering in the nude.
He hasn't issued a correction. Yes, I am deeply frustrated that thanks to the Labour membership someone so lightweight, lazy and mendacious as Johnson will be running the country for the next few years. I think it will cause deep harm.
The actual quote from the Mail article: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7742411/BORIS-JOHNSON-end-early-release-terrorists-violent-offenders.html “The terrorist on London Bridge was sentenced 11 years ago under laws passed in 2008 which established automatic early release. This system has got to end – I repeat, this has got to end, as I’ve been saying for four months. “ Given that 11 years ago was 2008, is that not just as likely to be a typo as a deliberate lie?
Yep, and every bloke that comes into A&E with his dick in a Dyson just had an accident while hoovering in the nude.
My sweetest personal memory is of the 2010 general election. In truth, I have relatively few insights and all of the really good ones have seemed blindingly obvious at the time. In 2010, at a time when the opinion polls showed a statistical dead heat between the Conservatives, Labour and the Lib Dems with three weeks to go to the election date, you could get odds against a hung Parliament. The betting markets had simply been too slow to catch up with the new reality.
I think I must personally have helped moved the odds with the amount of money I bet on this, putting the maximum I was allowed on with every single bookie that offered odds on the proposition. To this day, it remains one of my top three most successful betting positions ever.
If only the odds in 2019 were so clearly wrong. Annoyingly, the odds on the Conservatives getting an overall majority of roughly 1/2 on Betfair look about right given the information we currently have.
The outcome will seem obvious in retrospect, I'm sure.
I remember OGH lamenting how actually highly unlikley a hung parliament would be because it only took a fine movement from one side to another to get a majority government....
He hasn't issued a correction. Yes, I am deeply frustrated that thanks to the Labour membership someone so lightweight, lazy and mendacious as Johnson will be running the country for the next few years. I think it will cause deep harm.
The actual quote from the Mail article: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7742411/BORIS-JOHNSON-end-early-release-terrorists-violent-offenders.html “The terrorist on London Bridge was sentenced 11 years ago under laws passed in 2008 which established automatic early release. This system has got to end – I repeat, this has got to end, as I’ve been saying for four months. “ Given that 11 years ago was 2008, is that not just as likely to be a typo as a deliberate lie?
Yep, and every bloke that comes into A&E with his dick in a Dyson just had an accident while hoovering in the nude.
LOL that was funny.
They have usually fallen over the dyson whilst changing a lightbulb and got the lightbulb stuck up their arse.
He hasn't issued a correction. Yes, I am deeply frustrated that thanks to the Labour membership someone so lightweight, lazy and mendacious as Johnson will be running the country for the next few years. I think it will cause deep harm.
The actual quote from the Mail article: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7742411/BORIS-JOHNSON-end-early-release-terrorists-violent-offenders.html “The terrorist on London Bridge was sentenced 11 years ago under laws passed in 2008 which established automatic early release. This system has got to end – I repeat, this has got to end, as I’ve been saying for four months. “ Given that 11 years ago was 2008, is that not just as likely to be a typo as a deliberate lie?
Yep, and every bloke that comes into A&E with his dick in a Dyson just had an accident while hoovering in the nude.
That hasn't happened to you?
Actually that's reminded me, one of today's tasks is the hoovering. Fully clothed with a Shark for avoidance of doubt.
The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).
This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.
Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.
Didn't you say all the polls last night would come in with a 5-7 point lead?
I'm totally relaxed if the rest of the campaign is spent talking about national security issues, which is just about Corbyn's weakest point. What lost May credibility in 2017 was the fact that there was a second attack of horrifying scale and effect that made it look as if the Tories were losing control of events -thus turning their usual strength on national security into a weakness.
The speed and efficiency with which the latest outrage was dealt with by the police doesn't open up the same political vulnerabilities.
My feeling with Johnson is that he's just utterly out of his depth - and that's what makes it ever so more tragic that he's managed to become the PM.
He was mayor of London for 8 years and has held two of the great offices of state. Corbyn makes jam.
Johnson's record in London is of utter failure, I'm not really sure you want to use that as an example of why he's not out of his depth.
You would say that but he won two elections for Mayor
Yes, but do you count that as "success"? A difference here across parties is between people who feel that their side winning is what really matters on the understandable basis that if you never win you never do anything), and people who feel there's little point in winning if your side is actually pretty bad and will do harm to the country and their party's reputation.
Personally I think that ability to win is a desirable but insufficient reason to lead, and being bad at the job outweighs being good at getting it.
The murder rate reduced substantially during his tenure, at a time when police funding was under some pressure. It had been pretty flat under Livingstone, and has subsequently increased under Khan. I count that as "success".
Johnson's record
-Road traffic fatalities cut by 50%
That just mirrors the national fall that took place from '08 to '10
The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).
This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.
Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.
Didn't you say all the polls last night would come in with a 5-7 point lead?
I'm totally relaxed if the rest of the campaign is spent talking about national security issues, which is just about Corbyn's weakest point. What lost May credibility in 2017 was the fact that there was a second attack of horrifying scale and effect that made it look as if the Tories were losing control of events -thus turning their usual strength on national security into a weakness.
The speed and efficiency with which the latest outrage was dealt with by the police doesn't open up the same political vulnerabilities.
Maybe I over-reacted a tad, but there are worrying signs, lots of polls now in the 5-9% range.
He hasn't issued a correction. Yes, I am deeply frustrated that thanks to the Labour membership someone so lightweight, lazy and mendacious as Johnson will be running the country for the next few years. I think it will cause deep harm.
The actual quote from the Mail article: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7742411/BORIS-JOHNSON-end-early-release-terrorists-violent-offenders.html “The terrorist on London Bridge was sentenced 11 years ago under laws passed in 2008 which established automatic early release. This system has got to end – I repeat, this has got to end, as I’ve been saying for four months. “ Given that 11 years ago was 2008, is that not just as likely to be a typo as a deliberate lie?
Yep, and every bloke that comes into A&E with his dick in a Dyson just had an accident while hoovering in the nude.
The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).
This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.
Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.
Didn't you say all the polls last night would come in with a 5-7 point lead?
I'm totally relaxed if the rest of the campaign is spent talking about national security issues, which is just about Corbyn's weakest point. What lost May credibility in 2017 was the fact that there was a second attack of horrifying scale and effect that made it look as if the Tories were losing control of events -thus turning their usual strength on national security into a weakness.
The speed and efficiency with which the latest outrage was dealt with by the police doesn't open up the same political vulnerabilities.
Maybe I over-reacted a tad, but there are worrying signs, lots of polls now in the 5-9% range.
He hasn't issued a correction. Yes, I am deeply frustrated that thanks to the Labour membership someone so lightweight, lazy and mendacious as Johnson will be running the country for the next few years. I think it will cause deep harm.
The actual quote from the Mail article: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7742411/BORIS-JOHNSON-end-early-release-terrorists-violent-offenders.html “The terrorist on London Bridge was sentenced 11 years ago under laws passed in 2008 which established automatic early release. This system has got to end – I repeat, this has got to end, as I’ve been saying for four months. “ Given that 11 years ago was 2008, is that not just as likely to be a typo as a deliberate lie?
No, look at the number of times it is happening, almost all their press coverage starts with a lie. The media then correct it, Labour make a fuss, elevate the story that the Tories want to cover that day to the top of the news. Job done, and voters dont care as they assume all politicians are liars anyway.
Many people will end up believing the lie and see the correction from the media as "bias from the media". Johnson is importing much of the worst of Republican politics, including the dishonesty over deficit-spending.
Anthony Broxton. Complimenti. I think the finest and the most thoroughly enjoyable article I have read on pcCOM in my 15 years of checking out the site most days.
He hasn't issued a correction. Yes, I am deeply frustrated that thanks to the Labour membership someone so lightweight, lazy and mendacious as Johnson will be running the country for the next few years. I think it will cause deep harm.
The actual quote from the Mail article: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7742411/BORIS-JOHNSON-end-early-release-terrorists-violent-offenders.html “The terrorist on London Bridge was sentenced 11 years ago under laws passed in 2008 which established automatic early release. This system has got to end – I repeat, this has got to end, as I’ve been saying for four months. “ Given that 11 years ago was 2008, is that not just as likely to be a typo as a deliberate lie?
Yep, and every bloke that comes into A&E with his dick in a Dyson just had an accident while hoovering in the nude.
LOL that was funny.
They have usually fallen over the dyson whilst changing a lightbulb and got the lightbulb stuck up their arse.
Incidentally, my late wife (God rest her soul) was a GP but in her early career did a lot of work in A and E..... the list of things men had "accidentally" got stuck up their bums was considerable...
The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).
This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.
Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.
Didn't you say all the polls last night would come in with a 5-7 point lead?
I'm totally relaxed if the rest of the campaign is spent talking about national security issues, which is just about Corbyn's weakest point. What lost May credibility in 2017 was the fact that there was a second attack of horrifying scale and effect that made it look as if the Tories were losing control of events -thus turning their usual strength on national security into a weakness.
The speed and efficiency with which the latest outrage was dealt with by the police doesn't open up the same political vulnerabilities.
Maybe I over-reacted a tad, but there are worrying signs, lots of polls now in the 5-9% range.
2 were, and YouGov has good non-VI for Bozza. May was losing a lot of the non-VI head to heads with Jez by this point.
He hasn't issued a correction. Yes, I am deeply frustrated that thanks to the Labour membership someone so lightweight, lazy and mendacious as Johnson will be running the country for the next few years. I think it will cause deep harm.
The actual quote from the Mail article: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7742411/BORIS-JOHNSON-end-early-release-terrorists-violent-offenders.html “The terrorist on London Bridge was sentenced 11 years ago under laws passed in 2008 which established automatic early release. This system has got to end – I repeat, this has got to end, as I’ve been saying for four months. “ Given that 11 years ago was 2008, is that not just as likely to be a typo as a deliberate lie?
Yep, and every bloke that comes into A&E with his dick in a Dyson just had an accident while hoovering in the nude.
LOL that was funny.
They have usually fallen over the dyson whilst changing a lightbulb and got the lightbulb stuck up their arse.
Incidentally, my late wife (God rest her soul) was a GP but in her early career did a lot of work in A and E..... the list of things men had "accidentally" got stuck up their bums was considerable...
The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).
This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.
Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.
Didn't you say all the polls last night would come in with a 5-7 point lead?
I'm totally relaxed if the rest of the campaign is spent talking about national security issues, which is just about Corbyn's weakest point. What lost May credibility in 2017 was the fact that there was a second attack of horrifying scale and effect that made it look as if the Tories were losing control of events -thus turning their usual strength on national security into a weakness.
The speed and efficiency with which the latest outrage was dealt with by the police doesn't open up the same political vulnerabilities.
Maybe I over-reacted a tad, but there are worrying signs, lots of polls now in the 5-9% range.
2 were, and YouGov has good non-VI for Bozza. May was losing a lot of the non-VI head to heads with Jez by this point.
The only one minor positive I saw from a brief look at the polling was Jezza's personal rating on one had slipped nearly back to where it started the campaign.
He hasn't issued a correction. Yes, I am deeply frustrated that thanks to the Labour membership someone so lightweight, lazy and mendacious as Johnson will be running the country for the next few years. I think it will cause deep harm.
The actual quote from the Mail article: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7742411/BORIS-JOHNSON-end-early-release-terrorists-violent-offenders.html “The terrorist on London Bridge was sentenced 11 years ago under laws passed in 2008 which established automatic early release. This system has got to end – I repeat, this has got to end, as I’ve been saying for four months. “ Given that 11 years ago was 2008, is that not just as likely to be a typo as a deliberate lie?
No, look at the number of times it is happening, almost all their press coverage starts with a lie. The media then correct it, Labour make a fuss, elevate the story that the Tories want to cover that day to the top of the news. Job done, and voters dont care as they assume all politicians are liars anyway.
Many people will end up believing the lie and see the correction from the media as "bias from the media". Johnson is importing much of the worst of Republican politics, including the dishonesty over deficit-spending.
It is certainly bad for government efficiency and accountability and trust in politics. Not sure how we can correct it either. A grim decade for liberal democracies.
He hasn't issued a correction. Yes, I am deeply frustrated that thanks to the Labour membership someone so lightweight, lazy and mendacious as Johnson will be running the country for the next few years. I think it will cause deep harm.
The actual quote from the Mail article: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7742411/BORIS-JOHNSON-end-early-release-terrorists-violent-offenders.html “The terrorist on London Bridge was sentenced 11 years ago under laws passed in 2008 which established automatic early release. This system has got to end – I repeat, this has got to end, as I’ve been saying for four months. “ Given that 11 years ago was 2008, is that not just as likely to be a typo as a deliberate lie?
No, look at the number of times it is happening, almost all their press coverage starts with a lie. The media then correct it, Labour make a fuss, elevate the story that the Tories want to cover that day to the top of the news. Job done, and voters dont care as they assume all politicians are liars anyway.
Many people will end up believing the lie and see the correction from the media as "bias from the media". Johnson is importing much of the worst of Republican politics, including the dishonesty over deficit-spending.
It is certainly bad for government efficiency and accountability and trust in politics. Not sure how we can correct it either. A grim decade for liberal democracies.
As I said yesterday, the Labour onslaught of bribes has come to and end and they are about 10 points off the lead. Boris is more trusted on security which is the topic of the next week or so. We're in a much better position than we were in 2017.
The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).
This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.
Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.
Didn't you say all the polls last night would come in with a 5-7 point lead?
I'm totally relaxed if the rest of the campaign is spent talking about national security issues, which is just about Corbyn's weakest point. What lost May credibility in 2017 was the fact that there was a second attack of horrifying scale and effect that made it look as if the Tories were losing control of events -thus turning their usual strength on national security into a weakness.
The speed and efficiency with which the latest outrage was dealt with by the police doesn't open up the same political vulnerabilities.
Maybe I over-reacted a tad, but there are worrying signs, lots of polls now in the 5-9% range.
2 were, and YouGov has good non-VI for Bozza. May was losing a lot of the non-VI head to heads with Jez by this point.
The only one minor positive I saw from a brief look at the polling was Jezza's personal rating on one had slipped nearly back to where it started the campaign.
Which one was that? With 10 days to go, that's not a minor positive, that's huge!
Burgon representing the Labour Party on telly tonight. We've had a terrorist outrage, the PM went on Marr this morning absurdly trying to blame the last Labour government for it. And what's Labours response? Put the Shadow Justice Secretary on TV. Yes folks. We've got terrorists released on license macheteing people wearing a tag. And Labour want to improve this fiasco by applying Burgon to the job. I wouldn't trust Burgon to switch the light on.
He hasn't issued a correction. Yes, I am deeply frustrated that thanks to the Labour membership someone so lightweight, lazy and mendacious as Johnson will be running the country for the next few years. I think it will cause deep harm.
The actual quote from the Mail article: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7742411/BORIS-JOHNSON-end-early-release-terrorists-violent-offenders.html “The terrorist on London Bridge was sentenced 11 years ago under laws passed in 2008 which established automatic early release. This system has got to end – I repeat, this has got to end, as I’ve been saying for four months. “ Given that 11 years ago was 2008, is that not just as likely to be a typo as a deliberate lie?
Yep, and every bloke that comes into A&E with his dick in a Dyson just had an accident while hoovering in the nude.
LOL that was funny.
They have usually fallen over the dyson whilst changing a lightbulb and got the lightbulb stuck up their arse.
Burgon representing the Labour Party on telly tonight. We've had a terrorist outrage, the PM went on Marr this morning absurdly trying to blame the last Labour government for it. And what's Labours response? Put the Shadow Justice Secretary on TV. Yes folks. We've got terrorists released on license macheteing people wearing a tag. And Labour want to improve this fiasco by applying Burgon to the job. I wouldn't trust Burgon to switch the light on.
Couple of weeks and he could be a minister making crucial decisions....
He hasn't issued a correction. Yes, I am deeply frustrated that thanks to the Labour membership someone so lightweight, lazy and mendacious as Johnson will be running the country for the next few years. I think it will cause deep harm.
The actual quote from the Mail article: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7742411/BORIS-JOHNSON-end-early-release-terrorists-violent-offenders.html “The terrorist on London Bridge was sentenced 11 years ago under laws passed in 2008 which established automatic early release. This system has got to end – I repeat, this has got to end, as I’ve been saying for four months. “ Given that 11 years ago was 2008, is that not just as likely to be a typo as a deliberate lie?
No, look at the number of times it is happening, almost all their press coverage starts with a lie. The media then correct it, Labour make a fuss, elevate the story that the Tories want to cover that day to the top of the news. Job done, and voters dont care as they assume all politicians are liars anyway.
Many people will end up believing the lie and see the correction from the media as "bias from the media". Johnson is importing much of the worst of Republican politics, including the dishonesty over deficit-spending.
It is certainly bad for government efficiency and accountability and trust in politics. Not sure how we can correct it either. A grim decade for liberal democracies.
As I said yesterday, the Labour onslaught of bribes has come to and end and they are about 10 points off the lead. Boris is more trusted on security which is the topic of the next week or so. We're in a much better position than we were in 2017.
Surely Labour trailing by around 10 points will result in more bribes,can't Jezza nationalize Sky sports & Netflix?
"Should convicted terrorists serve their full sentence?"
Isn't there a legal problem with this? Most terrorists are convicted of murder, manslaughter or attempted murder, not of "terrorist murder". What kind of law can the government pass to make this mandatory for convited terrorists? Either a judge has to include in the sentence that this criminal is a terrorist, in which case it is not mandatory, or the home secretary has to scrap the parole system completely.
He hasn't issued a correction. Yes, I am deeply frustrated that thanks to the Labour membership someone so lightweight, lazy and mendacious as Johnson will be running the country for the next few years. I think it will cause deep harm.
The actual quote from the Mail article: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7742411/BORIS-JOHNSON-end-early-release-terrorists-violent-offenders.html “The terrorist on London Bridge was sentenced 11 years ago under laws passed in 2008 which established automatic early release. This system has got to end – I repeat, this has got to end, as I’ve been saying for four months. “ Given that 11 years ago was 2008, is that not just as likely to be a typo as a deliberate lie?
No, look at the number of times it is happening, almost all their press coverage starts with a lie. The media then correct it, Labour make a fuss, elevate the story that the Tories want to cover that day to the top of the news. Job done, and voters dont care as they assume all politicians are liars anyway.
Many people will end up believing the lie and see the correction from the media as "bias from the media". Johnson is importing much of the worst of Republican politics, including the dishonesty over deficit-spending.
It is certainly bad for government efficiency and accountability and trust in politics. Not sure how we can correct it either. A grim decade for liberal democracies.
As I said yesterday, the Labour onslaught of bribes has come to and end and they are about 10 points off the lead. Boris is more trusted on security which is the topic of the next week or so. We're in a much better position than we were in 2017.
Surely Labour trailing by around 10 points will result in more bribes,can't Jezza nationalize Sky sports & Netflix?
Pret first darling....also, Netflix, no that has to go. BritBox will be the only streaming service allowed.
On a serious note, I am genuinely surprised Labour didn't announce some sort of radical policy on sports rights. It is free for them to do, the fact it will more than likely mean less for the sports, well most of them are all millionaires anyway.
He hasn't issued a correction. Yes, I am deeply frustrated that thanks to the Labour membership someone so lightweight, lazy and mendacious as Johnson will be running the country for the next few years. I think it will cause deep harm.
The actual quote from the Mail article: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7742411/BORIS-JOHNSON-end-early-release-terrorists-violent-offenders.html “The terrorist on London Bridge was sentenced 11 years ago under laws passed in 2008 which established automatic early release. This system has got to end – I repeat, this has got to end, as I’ve been saying for four months. “ Given that 11 years ago was 2008, is that not just as likely to be a typo as a deliberate lie?
Yep, and every bloke that comes into A&E with his dick in a Dyson just had an accident while hoovering in the nude.
LOL that was funny.
They have usually fallen over the dyson whilst changing a lightbulb and got the lightbulb stuck up their arse.
I know an A&E doc - it’s fair to say that after a couple of beers they have some very good stories. There’s very little they haven’t seen before, no matter how much the patient might think he’s the first with his particular predicament!
Had a productive morning getting Eleanor Laing posters up around Epping
HYUFD: how safe do you sense Dominic Raab is?
Less safe than Robert Halfon and Eleanor Laing or even IDS I will put it like that but I think he will scrape home
I thought that Momentum were putting a lot of effort into this constituency, but Raab looks to be under threat from the LibDems?
And the LDs will get more tactical votes from Labour and Remainer Tories to defeat Raab than Corbyn Labour will get from the LDs and Remainer Tories to defeat IDS
Had a productive morning getting Eleanor Laing posters up around Epping
Found somebody yesterday who was pissed at a small forest of LibDem orange diamonds nearby. Wants a fuck-off massive Tory one to show they don't completely win the poster wars!
The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).
This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.
Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.
So crap the Tories now have a bigger lead than they did at the same stage of the 2017 campaign for the first time
The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).
This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.
Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.
So crap the Tories now have a bigger lead than they did at the same stage of the 2017 campaign for the first time
Come on...they are running against bloody Jezza and Marxist McDonnell and team moron...they should be so far ahead the result isn't in doubt. Instead some polls have it as close as 5% and all see the gap closing fast.
The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).
This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.
Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.
So crap the Tories now have a bigger lead than they did at the same stage of the 2017 campaign for the first time
Come on...they are running against bloody Jezza and Marxist McDonnell and team moron...they should be so far ahead the result isn't in doubt. Instead some polls have it as close as 5% and all see the gap closing fast.
Average lead of, what, 6, in 2017 at the end, reduced to 2 in the actual vote. Corbyn's future will depend on outperforming even the narrowing polls (eg if the average lead is 8, he really needs the vote to be 4-5 at worst).
That 4 point drop at the end is is very conspicuous, and we should not forget that the last point (+2 for the tories) was the exit poll/result. The drop is the size of the bias in the pre-election polls last time. We have no way of knowing how large this bias is this time.
"Should convicted terrorists serve their full sentence?"
Isn't there a legal problem with this? Most terrorists are convicted of murder, manslaughter or attempted murder, not of "terrorist murder". What kind of law can the government pass to make this mandatory for convited terrorists? Either a judge has to include in the sentence that this criminal is a terrorist, in which case it is not mandatory, or the home secretary has to scrap the parole system completely.
Id imagine most terrorists are convicted of terrorism offences not murder. Also offences such as murder do already get marked by the courts if there are links to terrorism.
The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).
This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.
Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.
So crap the Tories now have a bigger lead than they did at the same stage of the 2017 campaign for the first time
Come on...they are running against bloody Jezza and Marxist McDonnell and team moron...they should be so far ahead the result isn't in doubt. Instead some polls have it as close as 5% and all see the gap closing fast.
Average lead of, what, 6, in 2017 at the end, reduced to 2 in the actual vote. Corbyn's future will depend on outperforming even the narrowing polls (eg if the average lead is 8, he really needs the vote to be 4-5 at worst).
That 4 point drop at the end is is very conspicuous, and we should not forget that the last point (+2 for the tories) was the exit poll/result. The drop is the size of the bias in the pre-election polls last time. We have no way of knowing how large this bias is this time.
or, as in 2015, its in a different direction altogether.
The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).
This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.
Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.
So crap the Tories now have a bigger lead than they did at the same stage of the 2017 campaign for the first time
Come on...they are running against bloody Jezza and Marxist McDonnell and team moron...they should be so far ahead the result isn't in doubt. Instead some polls have it as close as 5% and all see the gap closing fast.
One poll has us at 6%.
I know, I fat fingered. But my point still stands. 6 bloody percent, against not just uncle thickie, but excluding the McDonnell, the rest of Red Team don't have a brain cell to rub together.
Blair, Bad Al and Mandy if working for Team Blue would absolutely have destroyed them. Every day Labour have announced a new fantasy set of pledges and the Tories response is muted. Bad Al would have had the troops out on message all across the media shredding it within minutes.
The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).
This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.
Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.
So crap the Tories now have a bigger lead than they did at the same stage of the 2017 campaign for the first time
Come on...they are running against bloody Jezza and Marxist McDonnell and team moron...they should be so far ahead the result isn't in doubt. Instead some polls have it as close as 5% and all see the gap closing fast.
Why? This is a Brexit election and Leave won by 4% and Labour is squeezing the LD Remain vote.
If the Tories win it will be due to Labour Leave voters in the North, the Midlands and Wales going Brexit Party or Tory
"Should convicted terrorists serve their full sentence?"
Isn't there a legal problem with this? Most terrorists are convicted of murder, manslaughter or attempted murder, not of "terrorist murder". What kind of law can the government pass to make this mandatory for convited terrorists? Either a judge has to include in the sentence that this criminal is a terrorist, in which case it is not mandatory, or the home secretary has to scrap the parole system completely.
I think it just has to be taken into account that those with strong ideological motivation may meet all the criteria for parole, but may be planning to reoffend as soon as they're at large.
The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).
This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.
Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.
So crap the Tories now have a bigger lead than they did at the same stage of the 2017 campaign for the first time
Come on...they are running against bloody Jezza and Marxist McDonnell and team moron...they should be so far ahead the result isn't in doubt. Instead some polls have it as close as 5% and all see the gap closing fast.
Why? This is a Brexit election and Leave won by 4% and Labour is squeezing the LD Remain vote.
If the Tories win it will be due to Labour Leave voters in the North, the Midlands and Wales going Brexit Party or Tory
The Tories have enabled Labour to do that. A more component campaign would have put so much doubt in voters mind that they would be splitting Remain across Lib Dem / Labour far more.
The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).
This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.
Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.
So crap the Tories now have a bigger lead than they did at the same stage of the 2017 campaign for the first time
Come on...they are running against bloody Jezza and Marxist McDonnell and team moron...they should be so far ahead the result isn't in doubt. Instead some polls have it as close as 5% and all see the gap closing fast.
One poll has us at 6%.
I know, I fat fingered. But my point still stands. 6 bloody percent, against not just uncle thickie, but excluding the McDonnell, the rest of Red Team don't have a brain cell to rub together.
Blair, Bad Al and Mandy if working for Team Blue would absolutely have destroyed them. Every day Labour have announced a new fantasy set of pledges and the Tories response is muted. Bad Al would have had the troops out on message all across the media shredding it within minutes.
The Tories are already polling 43%, a total they have not surpassed since 1970, even against Foot in 1983, there is little higher they can go.
The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).
This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.
Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.
So crap the Tories now have a bigger lead than they did at the same stage of the 2017 campaign for the first time
Come on...they are running against bloody Jezza and Marxist McDonnell and team moron...they should be so far ahead the result isn't in doubt. Instead some polls have it as close as 5% and all see the gap closing fast.
One poll has us at 6%.
I know, I fat fingered. But my point still stands. 6 bloody percent, against not just uncle thickie, but excluding the McDonnell, the rest of Red Team don't have a brain cell to rub together.
Blair, Bad Al and Mandy if working for Team Blue would absolutely have destroyed them. Every day Labour have announced a new fantasy set of pledges and the Tories response is muted. Bad Al would have had the troops out on message all across the media shredding it within minutes.
The Tories are already polling 43%, a total they have not surpassed since since 1970, there is little higher they can go.
No, but you can destroy the credibility of your main opponent such that their vote splits. Instead, the Tories have allowed Labour to play to both Remain and Leave and also put out a whole range of fantasy policies to try and convince especially working class voters that let Uncle Jezza in charge and you will still get Brexit plus a load of freebies.
New Labour were brilliant at that. The Tories credibility was shot before any GE, meaning they ended up boxed in fighting Labour and the Lib Dems.
The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).
This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.
Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.
So crap the Tories now have a bigger lead than they did at the same stage of the 2017 campaign for the first time
Come on...they are running against bloody Jezza and Marxist McDonnell and team moron...they should be so far ahead the result isn't in doubt. Instead some polls have it as close as 5% and all see the gap closing fast.
Why? This is a Brexit election and Leave won by 4% and Labour is squeezing the LD Remain vote.
If the Tories win it will be due to Labour Leave voters in the North, the Midlands and Wales going Brexit Party or Tory
The Tories have enabled Labour to do that. A more component campaign would have put so much doubt in voters mind that they would be splitting Remain across Lib Dem / Labour far more.
Then also losing more Tory seats to the LDs so no real net benefit overall
The 'Next Labour Leader' market is under the radar atm but there has been a big move there. Starmer is now a very clear and short priced favourite. Perhaps it does not have to be a woman after all.
The 'Next Labour Leader' market is under the radar atm but there has been a big move there. Starmer is now a very clear and short priced favourite. Perhaps it does not have to be a woman after all.
I really can't see how the membership will go for him. He is surely far too centrist for their liking.
The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).
This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.
Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.
So crap the Tories now have a bigger lead than they did at the same stage of the 2017 campaign for the first time
Come on...they are running against bloody Jezza and Marxist McDonnell and team moron...they should be so far ahead the result isn't in doubt. Instead some polls have it as close as 5% and all see the gap closing fast.
One poll has us at 6%.
I know, I fat fingered. But my point still stands. 6 bloody percent, against not just uncle thickie, but excluding the McDonnell, the rest of Red Team don't have a brain cell to rub together.
Blair, Bad Al and Mandy if working for Team Blue would absolutely have destroyed them. Every day Labour have announced a new fantasy set of pledges and the Tories response is muted. Bad Al would have had the troops out on message all across the media shredding it within minutes.
The Tories are already polling 43%, a total they have not surpassed since since 1970, there is little higher they can go.
No, but you can destroy the credibility of your main opponent such that their vote splits. Instead, the Tories have allowed Labour to play to both Remain and Leave and also put out a whole range of fantasy policies to try and convince especially working class voters that let Uncle Jezza in charge and you will still get Brexit plus a load of freebies.
New Labour were brilliant at that. The Tories credibility was shot before any GE, meaning they ended up boxed in fighting Labour and the Lib Dems.
Yougov MRP has the Tories gaining 44 mainly Labour Leave seats
Yougov MRP has the Tories gaining 44 mainly Labour Leave seats
As I have said from the beginning, a lot of these big Tory leads are predicated on the Tories doing really well among the working class in the Midlands and the North. They have allowed Labour to make all sort of superficially attractive promises to that demographic with little done to counter how totally unrealistic they are.
They needed more than "Get Brexit Done", they needed every bit of the manifesto / speeches / soundbites from the very beginning to be, "Lets get Brexit done, so we can .....".
New Labour were brilliant at this sort of messaging. They didn't wait until 2 weeks to a GE to start it, as Boris did on the day of the terrorist attack (too late and is now lost by other events).
The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).
This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.
Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.
So crap the Tories now have a bigger lead than they did at the same stage of the 2017 campaign for the first time
Come on...they are running against bloody Jezza and Marxist McDonnell and team moron...they should be so far ahead the result isn't in doubt. Instead some polls have it as close as 5% and all see the gap closing fast.
Why? This is a Brexit election and Leave won by 4% and Labour is squeezing the LD Remain vote.
If the Tories win it will be due to Labour Leave voters in the North, the Midlands and Wales going Brexit Party or Tory
Indeed. Approx 43% is an awfully high score to be losing, and approx 34% is an awfully low score to be winning.
Average lead of, what, 6, in 2017 at the end, reduced to 2 in the actual vote. Corbyn's future will depend on outperforming even the narrowing polls (eg if the average lead is 8, he really needs the vote to be 4-5 at worst).
That 4 point drop at the end is is very conspicuous, and we should not forget that the last point (+2 for the tories) was the exit poll/result. The drop is the size of the bias in the pre-election polls last time. We have no way of knowing how large this bias is this time.
or, as in 2015, its in a different direction altogether.
Of course. It means that the actual margin of error is considerably higher than the pollsters claim.
Seems like we’re already learning all the wrong lessons out of this tragedy. The solution is surely not to respond with “lock them up forever and throw away the key”.
Can I just point out that one of the heroes would not have been there to save people if this law was used fairly (I assume it would apply to murder).
The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).
This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.
Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.
So crap the Tories now have a bigger lead than they did at the same stage of the 2017 campaign for the first time
Come on...they are running against bloody Jezza and Marxist McDonnell and team moron...they should be so far ahead the result isn't in doubt. Instead some polls have it as close as 5% and all see the gap closing fast.
Why? This is a Brexit election and Leave won by 4% and Labour is squeezing the LD Remain vote.
If the Tories win it will be due to Labour Leave voters in the North, the Midlands and Wales going Brexit Party or Tory
Indeed. Approx 43% is an awfully high score to be losing, and approx 34% is an awfully low score to be winning.
A win for Labour is another hung parliament. Brexit is then stalemate for years, a global recession is coming in the next 5 years and they will have successfully shifted the Overton Window, such that one more heave after even more years of Brexit f##kery and a downturn in the economy.
There will be no return to the 2000s consensus that liberal capitalist democracy is the best way forward.
The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).
This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.
Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.
So crap the Tories now have a bigger lead than they did at the same stage of the 2017 campaign for the first time
Come on...they are running against bloody Jezza and Marxist McDonnell and team moron...they should be so far ahead the result isn't in doubt. Instead some polls have it as close as 5% and all see the gap closing fast.
Why? This is a Brexit election and Leave won by 4% and Labour is squeezing the LD Remain vote.
If the Tories win it will be due to Labour Leave voters in the North, the Midlands and Wales going Brexit Party or Tory
The Tories have enabled Labour to do that. A more component campaign would have put so much doubt in voters mind that they would be splitting Remain across Lib Dem / Labour far more.
I agree to an extent abut this. But I still think the media in general do not think Corbyn will become PM because surely their preposterous manifesto would have been eviscerated by any number of commentators. The WASPI bung was the most shameless piece of electoral politics I can ever recall. But...I agree it has not been a great Tory campaign by any means, although its caution and timidity has been greatly dictated by the events of 2017.
Remember this Francis - Labour got 40% then and still only got 262 seats. Unless there is a dramatic collapse in Tory support, they'll do enough IMO.
The 'Next Labour Leader' market is under the radar atm but there has been a big move there. Starmer is now a very clear and short priced favourite. Perhaps it does not have to be a woman after all.
I really can't see how the membership will go for him. He is surely far too centrist for their liking.
I guess that depends on how badly Labour lose. A big loss certainly isn’t off the cards, given the potential problem some of the pollsters have with recall weighting.
If Labour lose bad, Starmer has attraction as a leading moderate. Although in their position I might be tempted to give Cooper another look and tick off the female leader box at the same time.
Starmer’s weaknesses for that gig is that he’s a technocrat with no sign of the ideology nor the gumption to play from the Kinnock playbook.
The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).
This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.
Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.
So crap the Tories now have a bigger lead than they did at the same stage of the 2017 campaign for the first time
Come on...they are running against bloody Jezza and Marxist McDonnell and team moron...they should be so far ahead the result isn't in doubt. Instead some polls have it as close as 5% and all see the gap closing fast.
Why? This is a Brexit election and Leave won by 4% and Labour is squeezing the LD Remain vote.
If the Tories win it will be due to Labour Leave voters in the North, the Midlands and Wales going Brexit Party or Tory
The Tories have enabled Labour to do that. A more component campaign would have put so much doubt in voters mind that they would be splitting Remain across Lib Dem / Labour far more.
I agree to an extent abut this. But I still think the media in general do not think Corbyn will become PM because surely their preposterous manifesto would have been eviscerated by any number of commentators. The WASPI bung was the most shameless piece of electoral politics I can ever recall. But...I agree it has not been a great Tory campaign by any means, although its caution and timidity has been greatly dictated by the events of 2017.
Remember this Francis - Labour got 40% then and still only got 262 seats. Unless there is a dramatic collapse in Tory support, they'll do enough IMO.
As stated a couple of posts above, a win for Labour is another hung parliament. My ideal result would have been Labour stuffed with Lib Dems nearly matching them, and Corbynonmics assigned to the bin.
The best we can hope for is a small Tory majority, shift forward on Brexit, and then hopefully Tories / Lib Dems can start to get back to talking about improving the country via capitalism. Not a return to the 70s.
The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).
This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.
Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.
So crap the Tories now have a bigger lead than they did at the same stage of the 2017 campaign for the first time
Come on...they are running against bloody Jezza and Marxist McDonnell and team moron...they should be so far ahead the result isn't in doubt. Instead some polls have it as close as 5% and all see the gap closing fast.
Why? This is a Brexit election and Leave won by 4% and Labour is squeezing the LD Remain vote.
If the Tories win it will be due to Labour Leave voters in the North, the Midlands and Wales going Brexit Party or Tory
Indeed. Approx 43% is an awfully high score to be losing, and approx 34% is an awfully low score to be winning.
A win for Labour is another hung parliament. Brexit is then stalemate for years, a global recession is coming in the next 5 years and they will have successfully shifted the Overton Window, such that one more heave after even more years of Brexit f##kery and a downturn in the economy.
There will be no return to the 2000s consensus that liberal capitalist democracy is the best way forward.
On present trends Labour are not going to get a hung parliament. Lab is improving, but not fast enough. Con isn't contracting, or if it is it isn't contracting fast enough. Lib isn't dying fast enough. Brexit died in the right places. I wish people would start noticing this.
The 'Next Labour Leader' market is under the radar atm but there has been a big move there. Starmer is now a very clear and short priced favourite. Perhaps it does not have to be a woman after all.
I really can't see how the membership will go for him. He is surely far too centrist for their liking.
I guess that depends on how badly Labour lose. A big loss certainly isn’t off the cards, given the potential problem some of the pollsters have with recall weighting.
If Labour lose bad, Starmer has attraction as a leading moderate. Although in their position I might be tempted to give Cooper another look and tick off the female leader box at the same time.
Starmer’s weaknesses for that gig is that he’s a technocrat with no sign of the ideology nor the gumption to play from the Kinnock playbook.
I am not really a fan of Starmer, but I am far more comfortable with somebody like him or Cooper than a mini-me Jezza.
The 'Next Labour Leader' market is under the radar atm but there has been a big move there. Starmer is now a very clear and short priced favourite. Perhaps it does not have to be a woman after all.
I really can't see how the membership will go for him. He is surely far too centrist for their liking.
I guess that depends on how badly Labour lose. A big loss certainly isn’t off the cards, given the potential problem some of the pollsters have with recall weighting.
If Labour lose bad, Starmer has attraction as a leading moderate. Although in their position I might be tempted to give Cooper another look and tick off the female leader box at the same time.
Starmer’s weaknesses for that gig is that he’s a technocrat with no sign of the ideology nor the gumption to play from the Kinnock playbook.
Lawyers are generally good at following instructions and clever wordplay. It is very rare to see a lawyer as a great leader though. Starmer’s time as Head of the CPS doesn’t seem to have been a time of great leadership there, and indeed the bar is not really a team-work based environment. I appreciate that people can develop but examples of leadership would be useful to see.
I guess that depends on how badly Labour lose. A big loss certainly isn’t off the cards, given the potential problem some of the pollsters have with recall weighting. If Labour lose bad, Starmer has attraction as a leading moderate. Although in their position I might be tempted to give Cooper another look and tick off the female leader box at the same time. Starmer’s weaknesses for that gig is that he’s a technocrat with no sign of the ideology nor the gumption to play from the Kinnock playbook.
Your 2nd para is the rationale for one of the highly speculative 3 digit odds bets I like to have from time to time. Cooper for next PM.
Also giving no indication that he approves of their action, the dodgy fucker.
Corbyn is a terrible liar. His body language betrays his real intentions and beliefs. Boris, on the other hand, is an accomplished liar. However, Boris is not a terrorist sympathiser and Corbyn is. Anyway, Corbyn's been Labour leader long enough for the vast majority of people to know what he is. It's all priced in.
The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).
This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.
Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.
So crap the Tories now have a bigger lead than they did at the same stage of the 2017 campaign for the first time
Calling the election when they did is the only thing the Tories did right. Since then, Bozo has repeated all of Mrs M’s mistakes except for promising to deprive the oldies of their life savings, something a primary school child could have avoided after last time.
The 'Next Labour Leader' market is under the radar atm but there has been a big move there. Starmer is now a very clear and short priced favourite. Perhaps it does not have to be a woman after all.
I really can't see how the membership will go for him. He is surely far too centrist for their liking.
I guess that depends on how badly Labour lose. A big loss certainly isn’t off the cards, given the potential problem some of the pollsters have with recall weighting.
If Labour lose bad, Starmer has attraction as a leading moderate. Although in their position I might be tempted to give Cooper another look and tick off the female leader box at the same time.
Starmer’s weaknesses for that gig is that he’s a technocrat with no sign of the ideology nor the gumption to play from the Kinnock playbook.
Lawyers are generally good at following instructions and clever wordplay. It is very rare to see a lawyer as a great leader though. Starmer’s time as Head of the CPS doesn’t seem to have been a time of great leadership there, and indeed the bar is not really a team-work based environment. I appreciate that people can develop but examples of leadership would be useful to see.
Average lead of, what, 6, in 2017 at the end, reduced to 2 in the actual vote. Corbyn's future will depend on outperforming even the narrowing polls (eg if the average lead is 8, he really needs the vote to be 4-5 at worst).
That 4 point drop at the end is is very conspicuous, and we should not forget that the last point (+2 for the tories) was the exit poll/result. The drop is the size of the bias in the pre-election polls last time. We have no way of knowing how large this bias is this time.
or, as in 2015, its in a different direction altogether.
Of course. It means that the actual margin of error is considerably higher than the pollsters claim.
I'd be a wee bit careful there.
There's a random sampling error - i.e. if you randomly pick x % of the population, you could get a range of results. I think this is broadly well described - ca. 2 % error.
There's also a series of systemic errors - i.e. companies add their own fudge factors, there's clearly a sense of not wanting to stand from the crowd in there, that's just the tip of the iceberg.
The systemic errors have changed in three different directions in the last 3 elections (2010 - overrated LD, 2015 - underestimating Con, 2017 - underestimating Lab).
The one near-consistent is Labour recovering from historic lows to be competitive - 2010, 2017 and 2019. Something similar may have happened for the Tories in 2015 tbf, but none of the companies saw it ...
The 'Next Labour Leader' market is under the radar atm but there has been a big move there. Starmer is now a very clear and short priced favourite. Perhaps it does not have to be a woman after all.
I really can't see how the membership will go for him. He is surely far too centrist for their liking.
I guess that depends on how badly Labour lose. A big loss certainly isn’t off the cards, given the potential problem some of the pollsters have with recall weighting.
If Labour lose bad, Starmer has attraction as a leading moderate. Although in their position I might be tempted to give Cooper another look and tick off the female leader box at the same time.
Starmer’s weaknesses for that gig is that he’s a technocrat with no sign of the ideology nor the gumption to play from the Kinnock playbook.
His weaknesses seem many, I dont mind him in a brexit or attorney general type role but cant see him as a credible leader. No idea what he believes in and lacks charisma. How does he connect with northern Brexity Labour seats? If they want to stay hard left McDonell, otherwise they should give Phillips a go. In terms of who is most likely, I would say Long-Bailey at the moment.
The Tories are screwed, repeat, screwed...and the scary thing is Jezza is giving it the big it was Iraq war fault and of course we don't want to lock terrorist up to serve their full service...remember he was dead keen to welcome back ISIS terrorists from Syria and saying we can then prosecute them here (which we know is nearly impossible as evidence can't be gathered and due process followed).
This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.
Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.
So crap the Tories now have a bigger lead than they did at the same stage of the 2017 campaign for the first time
Calling the election when they did is the only thing the Tories did right. Since then, Bozo has repeated all of Mrs M’s mistakes except for promising to deprive the oldies of their life savings, something a primary school child could have avoided after last time.
The CON campaign is much more similar to 2015 than 2017. Much more.
At this point in 2017, you'd started getting the blame spreading stories.
Apropos of nowt, have a look at which party is leaking those types of stories at the moment.
The 'Next Labour Leader' market is under the radar atm but there has been a big move there. Starmer is now a very clear and short priced favourite. Perhaps it does not have to be a woman after all.
I really can't see how the membership will go for him. He is surely far too centrist for their liking.
I guess that depends on how badly Labour lose. A big loss certainly isn’t off the cards, given the potential problem some of the pollsters have with recall weighting.
If Labour lose bad, Starmer has attraction as a leading moderate. Although in their position I might be tempted to give Cooper another look and tick off the female leader box at the same time.
Starmer’s weaknesses for that gig is that he’s a technocrat with no sign of the ideology nor the gumption to play from the Kinnock playbook.
Corbyn and his army only need to get more than the 243 seats they currently have to convince themselves they have won and the ideology will continue. If Corbyn pulls back to his 2017 seat count he will be a hero, it will be considered a Blair style landslide of unprecedented epic proportions.
The 'Next Labour Leader' market is under the radar atm but there has been a big move there. Starmer is now a very clear and short priced favourite. Perhaps it does not have to be a woman after all.
I really can't see how the membership will go for him. He is surely far too centrist for their liking.
I guess that depends on how badly Labour lose. A big loss certainly isn’t off the cards, given the potential problem some of the pollsters have with recall weighting.
If Labour lose bad, Starmer has attraction as a leading moderate. Although in their position I might be tempted to give Cooper another look and tick off the female leader box at the same time.
Starmer’s weaknesses for that gig is that he’s a technocrat with no sign of the ideology nor the gumption to play from the Kinnock playbook.
Corbyn and his army only need to get more than the 243 seats they currently have to convince themselves they have won and the ideology will continue. If Corbyn pulls back to his 2017 seat count he will be a hero, it will be considered a Blair style landslide of unprecedented epic proportions.
Yes, I think we can all see Labour cheering their fourth consecutive election defeat.
I am not really a fan of Starmer, but I am far more comfortable with somebody like him or Cooper than a mini-me Jezza.
I'll be looking for a woman and she will need to have the following qualities - Highly intelligent. Vivacious, GSOH. Tough mind, Kind heart. Under 55. Passionate about reducing inequality.
Comments
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7742411/BORIS-JOHNSON-end-early-release-terrorists-violent-offenders.html
“The terrorist on London Bridge was sentenced 11 years ago under laws passed in 2008 which established automatic early release. This system has got to end – I repeat, this has got to end, as I’ve been saying for four months. “
Given that 11 years ago was 2008, is that not just as likely to be a typo as a deliberate lie?
Corbyn surrounded by the like of Seamus Milne, with their utter distrust of the established security services, would billow sail on anything terrorist related, offer no leadership, frustrate their work and grandstand against the West in public rather than take action. We have the precedent of how they "helped" the Remain campaign in 2016.
That would probably lead to people getting killed who wouldn't need to.
https://twitter.com/hasanthehun/status/1201083515325992960?s=20
What I'm not entirely bad at though is recognising those who do and reading the broad runes of British elections.
I only broke even in 2017 because I entered the spread markets at the 11th hour. All my bookie and constituency bets yielded several hundred quid.
So believe me when I say that today's article[4] by Anthony Broxton is really rather good and his blog[6] and twitter[5] are just as good. Well done Anthony.
* 1] http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/11/08/foxes-and-hedgehogs/
* [2] http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/11/06/a-future-history-of-labours-election-in-ten-seats/
* [3] http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/11/10/can-anyone-challenge-the-green-and-orange-waves/
* [4] http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/12/01/history-of-the-political-punter-always-expect-the-unexpected/
* [5] https://tidesofhistory.wordpress.com/
* [6] https://twitter.com/labour_history?lang=en
This is the what will dominate the rest of the campaign, just like cuts to plod in 2017.
Tories again have run a terrible campaign and let Labour allow a totally unworkable, unrealistic and dangerous manifesto without ever countering it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MWVZXjTXn5o
https://www.bbc.co.uk/contact/andrew-marr-notification/#/Notification
I'm totally relaxed if the rest of the campaign is spent talking about national security issues, which is just about Corbyn's weakest point. What lost May credibility in 2017 was the fact that there was a second attack of horrifying scale and effect that made it look as if the Tories were losing control of events -thus turning their usual strength on national security into a weakness.
The speed and efficiency with which the latest outrage was dealt with by the police doesn't open up the same political vulnerabilities.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ajxkFtWGvfU
Complimenti. I think the finest and the most thoroughly enjoyable article I have read on pcCOM in my 15 years of checking out the site most days.
We're in a much better position than we were in 2017.
Put the Shadow Justice Secretary on TV. Yes folks. We've got terrorists released on license macheteing people wearing a tag. And Labour want to improve this fiasco by applying Burgon to the job.
I wouldn't trust Burgon to switch the light on.
The moral of the story is: when you go to A&E with a thing stuck up your bum, tell them there is a thing stuck up your bum and that you put it there. It saves a lot of time.
Isn't there a legal problem with this? Most terrorists are convicted of murder, manslaughter or attempted murder, not of "terrorist murder". What kind of law can the government pass to make this mandatory for convited terrorists? Either a judge has to include in the sentence that this criminal is a terrorist, in which case it is not mandatory, or the home secretary has to scrap the parole system completely.
On a serious note, I am genuinely surprised Labour didn't announce some sort of radical policy on sports rights. It is free for them to do, the fact it will more than likely mean less for the sports, well most of them are all millionaires anyway.
Blair, Bad Al and Mandy if working for Team Blue would absolutely have destroyed them. Every day Labour have announced a new fantasy set of pledges and the Tories response is muted. Bad Al would have had the troops out on message all across the media shredding it within minutes.
If the Tories win it will be due to Labour Leave voters in the North, the Midlands and Wales going Brexit Party or Tory
New Labour were brilliant at that. The Tories credibility was shot before any GE, meaning they ended up boxed in fighting Labour and the Lib Dems.
They needed more than "Get Brexit Done", they needed every bit of the manifesto / speeches / soundbites from the very beginning to be, "Lets get Brexit done, so we can .....".
New Labour were brilliant at this sort of messaging. They didn't wait until 2 weeks to a GE to start it, as Boris did on the day of the terrorist attack (too late and is now lost by other events).
Correct
Can I just point out that one of the heroes would not have been there to save people if this law was used fairly (I assume it would apply to murder).
What Johnson is proposing is impossible
There will be no return to the 2000s consensus that liberal capitalist democracy is the best way forward.
A terminological inexactitude.. Some on SO.... Call him out on it
Remember this Francis - Labour got 40% then and still only got 262 seats. Unless there is a dramatic collapse in Tory support, they'll do enough IMO.
If Labour lose bad, Starmer has attraction as a leading moderate. Although in their position I might be tempted to give Cooper another look and tick off the female leader box at the same time.
Starmer’s weaknesses for that gig is that he’s a technocrat with no sign of the ideology nor the gumption to play from the Kinnock playbook.
The best we can hope for is a small Tory majority, shift forward on Brexit, and then hopefully Tories / Lib Dems can start to get back to talking about improving the country via capitalism. Not a return to the 70s.
I wish people would start noticing this.
Calling the election when they did is the only thing the Tories did right. Since then, Bozo has repeated all of Mrs M’s mistakes except for promising to deprive the oldies of their life savings, something a primary school child could have avoided after last time.
Forecast here:
UK-Elect Forecast December 1st 2019
Details as CSV file here:
UK-Elect Forecast Details December 1st 2019
This reflects the small but noticeable swing from the Tories to Labour in most recent opinion polls.
There's a random sampling error - i.e. if you randomly pick x % of the population, you could get a range of results. I think this is broadly well described - ca. 2 % error.
There's also a series of systemic errors - i.e. companies add their own fudge factors, there's clearly a sense of not wanting to stand from the crowd in there, that's just the tip of the iceberg.
The systemic errors have changed in three different directions in the last 3 elections (2010 - overrated LD, 2015 - underestimating Con, 2017 - underestimating Lab).
The one near-consistent is Labour recovering from historic lows to be competitive - 2010, 2017 and 2019. Something similar may have happened for the Tories in 2015 tbf, but none of the companies saw it ...
If they want to stay hard left McDonell, otherwise they should give Phillips a go. In terms of who is most likely, I would say Long-Bailey at the moment.
At this point in 2017, you'd started getting the blame spreading stories.
Apropos of nowt, have a look at which party is leaking those types of stories at the moment.
Highly intelligent.
Vivacious, GSOH.
Tough mind, Kind heart.
Under 55.
Passionate about reducing inequality.
Things that stand out
"For each of the following party leaders, do
you think they are doing very well in their
job, quite well, quite badly or very badly?"
by age
BJ (+2 over entire sample)
18 - 24: -7
25 - 34: -14
35 - 54: -6
55 - 64: +19
65 + : +19
JC (-39 over entire sample)
18 - 24: +14
25 - 34: -4
35 - 54: -18
55 - 64: -41
65 + : -43
They also split vote share by seat type - safe lab, lab leading, con leading, safe con. Yeah, talk about stacking votes where it don't matter.