politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big MRP message for Tory remainers is that Corbyn can’t be

wooliedyed said:

Telegraph with a piece that actually rather than 2017 a landslide is in the offing a la Blair 97

Anything but. If an 11% vote share lead can only generate a 68 seat majority, when 2 other of the most recent polls already have the lead down to 7%, then it suggests that the election is on a knife edge. It is quite plausible now that the Tory lead could end up around 6%, and if so then the MRP is effectively saying that Johnson's majority is all but gone. That;s before addressing the likelihood of some tactical voting understatement in the MRP model.
I made pretty well the same point a few days ago as Cummings is reported as making in the Telegraph yesterday - i.e that a small BXP national vote share still amounts to more than double that at the expense of the Conservatives in the minority of seats the BXP are still standing in, including all the key marginals that Johnson needs to gain.
From the Telegraph:
"Despite the Tories’ consistent lead over Labour, Mr Cummings wrote a blog that he described as a “bat signal” to warn that “Brexit is in danger”. He said: “You will see many polls in the coming days. Some will say Boris will win. Trust me, as someone who has worked on lots of campaigns, things are MUCH tighter than they seem and there is a very real possibility of a hung parliament.” He argued that while the Brexit Party is struggling overall, it is still polling at 10 per cent in marginal seats where the Tories and Labour are neck and neck."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/27/election-result-close-call-warns-dominic-cummings/

IanB2 said:

Sandpit said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Tabman said:

Philip_Thompson said:

No its not. According to the polls over 40% of voters are voting for Johnson's party and over 30% of voters are voting for Corbyn's party with no other party beating single digits except Swinson's who struggling to be in the low teens. It doesn't matter what electoral system you have with those numbers - either you will have Corbyn or Johnson as PM afterwards.
If you can't stand either then either pick the lesser evil or waste your vote. Those are the candidates to choose from though.

Your argument presupposes that people vote for those parties positively, whereas FPTP encourages people to vote negatively. FPTP forces people into a binary choice because fear of the worst option/the wasted vote argument reinforces it.
Given a free choice, it's highly likely support for the Brexservative Party and the Revolutionary Labour Party would plummet.

Because PR politics is so moderate right?
You wouldn't see the Freedom Party in Austria or Likud in Israel or Five Star or Lega Nord in Italy enter office under PR systems would you? Oh . . .

Don’t forget that the 2015 UK election under PR would have resulted in a massive majority for a Con/UKIP coalition.

? massive? With a tad less than half the vote.

You might have a point there, it would depend on which of the many other systems was used. Under AV it would have been a likely landslide for that coalition, under something strictly proportional but regional the DUP would have seen them over the line.

Philip_Thompson said:

LOL at Sky switching off an emotional Swinson to speak about sourdough bread. Tackling the big issues of the day!

Haven't been watching but is there any partiuclar reason Swinson is "emotional" over the subject of sourdough bread?

Sandpit said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

philiph said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ttps://twitter.com/sunny_hundal/status/1200005632700616704?s=21

People pressured to vote as part of a religious bloc, who would have thought it?

This has being going on within certain ‘communities’ for decades now, it’s really not surprising any more - or is it just Labour supporters being surprised that it’s the Tories doing it in this case?
Surprised not to have seen any gender-segregated rally photos yet, they usually surface about now in the campaign too.

I know, it’ll be one of the best things to happen when Northern Ireland leaves the UK.

Religious bloc voting should have no place in this country.

Hopefully Boris Johnson putting the border in the Irish Sea will accelerate Irish unification.

I agree religious voting should not be encouraged or done as a block.
Unfortunately we have too many blocks (some regional some more national):
Jewish, Muslim, Catholic, Protestant
Any others?

"I agree religious voting should not be encouraged or done as a block."
If it's good enough for the Chief Rabbi, my boy....

Is the Chief Rabbi endorsing any particular candidate or party, or is he simply pointing out that he believes that one party sees his race as inferior people (or is that superior people)?

No, I am sure he will be perfectly happy for people to support Tommy Robinson, the EDL, the BNP, The Brexit Party or any other they may choose.

Sandpit said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Tabman said:

Philip_Thompson said:

No its not. According to the polls over 40% of voters are voting for Johnson's party and over 30% of voters are voting for Corbyn's party with no other party beating single digits except Swinson's who struggling to be in the low teens. It doesn't matter what electoral system you have with those numbers - either you will have Corbyn or Johnson as PM afterwards.
If you can't stand either then either pick the lesser evil or waste your vote. Those are the candidates to choose from though.

Your argument presupposes that people vote for those parties positively, whereas FPTP encourages people to vote negatively. FPTP forces people into a binary choice because fear of the worst option/the wasted vote argument reinforces it.
Given a free choice, it's highly likely support for the Brexservative Party and the Revolutionary Labour Party would plummet.

Because PR politics is so moderate right?
You wouldn't see the Freedom Party in Austria or Likud in Israel or Five Star or Lega Nord in Italy enter office under PR systems would you? Oh . . .

Don’t forget that the 2015 UK election under PR would have resulted in a massive majority for a Con/UKIP coalition.

?? 2015: 36.8% Vote share for the Conservatives
12.6% Vote share for UKIP
not even a majority

FrancisUrquhart said:

Seems like Boris should do his AN interview on Monday....
The Panorama programme featuring an interview with an alleged Jeffrey Epstein victim who claims she slept with the Duke of York while under age will now be an hour long, the BBC has said.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7732393/BBC-extends-Panorama-episode-featuring-interview-Duke-York-s-accuser.html

Wasn’t she 17, and in the UK? If so, not a criminal offence unless the activity was against her will.

Philip_Thompson said:

Tabman said:

Philip_Thompson said:

<

On the policy of Brexit the only extremist leading a mainstream party if you can call it that is Jo Swinson.
Corbyn is an extremist on virtually everything else but is fencesitting on this.
Johnson is the most mainstream leader of all - proposing to honour what the people voted for is as mainstream as it gets.
Sturgeon is mainstream for Scotland.
Swinson though doesn't just want to reverse what the people voted for, she wants to do so without another vote. Crazed extremist.
The problem Remainers have is they haven't woken up to the fact that Remaining is not accepted mainstream opinion.

Delivering a Hard Brexit on 52/48 split for remaining is extreme. Deselecting anyone who diverges from the Hard Brexit opinion from within the Conservative Party is extreme. Visiting extreme economic deprivation and disruption by leaving our largest trading partner with 46 years' accrued entanglement in order to solve an internal party dispute is extreme.

I'm guessing you don't actually work in the real world, where the impact of a Brexit that hasn't even happened yet is already impacting this country. If you did. you wouldn't spout such errant nonsense.

Johnson has a deal so we aren't getting a Hard Brexit.
We aren't leaving our trading partner to solve an internal party dispute, we're doing so because the largest democratic vote to support anything ever was the vote to leave. If all 17.4 million were internal to the Tory Party then the Tory Party would get a mammoth landslide in a fortnight even without any Remainers. You're talking bollock in other words.

Johnson hasn't got a deal.

He has a deal for the transition period which is currently until 1st January 2021. That isn't the same as a long term deal with a settled relationship with the EU.
It's also why Brexit is so hard - the reality is that we haven't even started yet.

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Tabman said:

Philip_Thompson said:

<

On the policy of Brexit the only extremist leading a mainstream party if you can call it that is Jo Swinson.
Corbyn is an extremist on virtually everything else but is fencesitting on this.
Johnson is the most mainstream leader of all - proposing to honour what the people voted for is as mainstream as it gets.
Sturgeon is mainstream for Scotland.
Swinson though doesn't just want to reverse what the people voted for, she wants to do so without another vote. Crazed extremist.
The problem Remainers have is they haven't woken up to the fact that Remaining is not accepted mainstream opinion.

Delivering a Hard Brexit on 52/48 split for remaining is extreme. Deselecting anyone who diverges from the Hard Brexit opinion from within the Conservative Party is extreme. Visiting extreme economic deprivation and disruption by leaving our largest trading partner with 46 years' accrued entanglement in order to solve an internal party dispute is extreme.

I'm guessing you don't actually work in the real world, where the impact of a Brexit that hasn't even happened yet is already impacting this country. If you did. you wouldn't spout such errant nonsense.

Johnson has a deal so we aren't getting a Hard Brexit.
We aren't leaving our trading partner to solve an internal party dispute, we're doing so because the largest democratic vote to support anything ever was the vote to leave. If all 17.4 million were internal to the Tory Party then the Tory Party would get a mammoth landslide in a fortnight even without any Remainers. You're talking bollock in other words.

Johnson hasn't got a deal.

He has a deal for the transition period which is currently until 1st January 2021. That isn't the same as a long term deal with a settled relationship with the EU.
It's also why Brexit is so hard - the reality is that we haven't even started yet.

A reality which our politicians have done a very poor job of explaining, so far.

Is this new?

Time_to_Leave said:

Is this new?

Yes would give 6 tory, 4 LD 1 Lab and the rest SNP. Horrible figures for labour

EU net migration lowest to UK for 16 years

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50586338

eristdoof said:

TOPPING said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

I am one of the 1% myself

Aaah! That explains it. You are one of the people who can afford to be a socialist. Your posts make perfect sense now.

So what is someone in the 1% to do? Vote conservative and you are a selfish *&%$. Vote Labour and you slagged off as someone who can "afford to be a socialist".

I think one is expected to be a tax exile and donate to the tory party quietly.

Solid analysis here - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/27/labour-election-leave-voters-boris-johnson-hard-brexit

Time_to_Leave said:

Is this new?

Another great poll for SCons

wooliedyed said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Is this new?

Yes would give 6 tory, 4 LD 1 Lab and the rest SNP. Horrible figures for labour

Labour down 11% on 2017, this feels right. In line with the recent council by-elections.

Philip_Thompson said:

Tabman said:

Philip_Thompson said:

<

On the policy of Brexit the only extremist leading a mainstream party if you can call it that is Jo Swinson.
Corbyn is an extremist on virtually everything else but is fencesitting on this.
Johnson is the most mainstream leader of all - proposing to honour what the people voted for is as mainstream as it gets.
Sturgeon is mainstream for Scotland.
Swinson though doesn't just want to reverse what the people voted for, she wants to do so without another vote. Crazed extremist.
The problem Remainers have is they haven't woken up to the fact that Remaining is not accepted mainstream opinion.

Delivering a Hard Brexit on 52/48 split for remaining is extreme. Deselecting anyone who diverges from the Hard Brexit opinion from within the Conservative Party is extreme. Visiting extreme economic deprivation and disruption by leaving our largest trading partner with 46 years' accrued entanglement in order to solve an internal party dispute is extreme.

I'm guessing you don't actually work in the real world, where the impact of a Brexit that hasn't even happened yet is already impacting this country. If you did. you wouldn't spout such errant nonsense.

Johnson has a deal so we aren't getting a Hard Brexit.
We aren't leaving our trading partner to solve an internal party dispute, we're doing so because the largest democratic vote to support anything ever was the vote to leave. If all 17.4 million were internal to the Tory Party then the Tory Party would get a mammoth landslide in a fortnight even without any Remainers. You're talking bollock in other words.

Johnson has a putative agreement to leave the EU. He doesn't have a future trade deal with the EU, and has <12 months to get one (when most take years, even decades). So in all likelihood if his WA is passed we will leave on WTO terms on 31/12/20.
Brexit was a minority interest until the Tories cooked up a referendum on it as a way to solve their internal disputes and fear of UKIP depriving them of a majority again. 17.4m people, of whom a significant minority will now have passed on, were voting for a large variety of outcomes that didn't exist, weren't thought through, and were mis-sold, often against their own interests, on the basis of deliberate misinformation.

And I note you haven't indicated what real world job you perform.

Time_to_Leave said:

Is this new?

Ah so there's the long awaited MORI Scotland poll

Peter_the_Punter said:

Cyclefree said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Philip_Thompson said:

There is no mechanism within our Parliamentary democracy for a third party after an election to demand another party change its leader.

And no self-respecting party is going to agree to another party saying its leader must be XXX.

But a self-respecting party is entitled to say “we won’t support you under your current leadership.”
Corbyn handing over to McDonnell is no improvement. McDonnell is a dangerous man. If the Lib Dems give any impression at all that they will support either of them in power they risk losing even more votes from people who cannot abide them and/or think of them as Leavers.
I simply do not trust Corbyn or McDonnell with power. I don’t trust Johnson either.
The Lib Dems seem to be going nowhere, even in my constituency if that poll is right.
So what to do?

You're Kilburn & Hampstead, no?

Sitting MP Tulip Siddiq is pretty good. She's no Corbynista and strongly pro-Remain. She won't necessarily hold on though, if what i hear is correct. The LDs are expecting a strong performance.

You're spoilt for choice, Ms Cyclefree!

Tulip is ok. She has been very active in trying to help that poor Iranian woman locked up in prison. She rather blotted her copybook in relation to the Bangladeshi man who asked for her help and the nasty way she responded to the Channel 4 reporter.
But it doesn’t matter that she was pro Remain and that she’s not a Corbynista. A vote for her is a vote for Corbyn as PM, McDonnell as Chancellor and Corbynista policies. She’s deluding herself and the voters if she thinks - or tries to pretend - otherwise.
Same for all the other Labour MPS who are trying to pretend Corbyn is not their leader.
Edited: and indeed all those Labour voters deluding themselves they can get Labour without Corbyn.

YouGov MRP last time round - LAB-TORY root mean square error = 7.4%.

This 2 billion trees. Lets presume you can actually plant that many trees at the suggested rate, where are they going to put them all, especially as Labour wants to build a million more houses?

Sandpit said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Tabman said:

Philip_Thompson said:

No its not. According to the polls over 40% of voters are voting for Johnson's party and over 30% of voters are voting for Corbyn's party with no other party beating single digits except Swinson's who struggling to be in the low teens. It doesn't matter what electoral system you have with those numbers - either you will have Corbyn or Johnson as PM afterwards.
If you can't stand either then either pick the lesser evil or waste your vote. Those are the candidates to choose from though.

Your argument presupposes that people vote for those parties positively, whereas FPTP encourages people to vote negatively. FPTP forces people into a binary choice because fear of the worst option/the wasted vote argument reinforces it.
Given a free choice, it's highly likely support for the Brexservative Party and the Revolutionary Labour Party would plummet.

Because PR politics is so moderate right?
You wouldn't see the Freedom Party in Austria or Likud in Israel or Five Star or Lega Nord in Italy enter office under PR systems would you? Oh . . .

Don’t forget that the 2015 UK election under PR would have resulted in a massive majority for a Con/UKIP coalition.

PR would not have given Con/UKIP a majority.
What's your source?

Projections under various systems are shown here, no majority with combined UKIP+CON.
https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/latest-news-and-research/publications/the-2015-general-election-report/

Furthermore, many people voting tactically under FPTP would choose to vote very differently under PR - Con and Lab and LD voters voting Green. Con and Lab voters voting Brexit, more LD voters. Look at the Scottish Parliament where Greens have succeeded because of PR. Voters can afford to vote positively rather than negatively.

MikeL said:

Is a national MORI poll due?

We thought there might be one for the Evening Standard today but so far we've not seen anything and it is getting pretty late...

TheScreamingEagles said:

Wait what?

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1200028306885816320?s=21

Now, if they'd done it on musical taste i'd be supporting them....

Sounds like the 350 million in a day figure is dodgy at best...

The head of one government-linked organisation told the BBC they'd been ordered to plant 10,000 trees, but had to pay for them out of their own budget. So they planted 5,000, but reported the full amount.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-49266983

It seems basically the government gave a huge number of the public seedlings and said please plant them on this day.

So if Jezza going to be instructing us all to start planting trees in our own gardens?

FrancisUrquhart said:

This 2 billion trees. Lets presume you can actually plant that many trees at the suggested rate, where are they going to put them all, especially as Labour wants to build a million more houses?

Look at the upside. With so many more trees Nimbys won't be able to see the new houses which will at least allow them to be built.

Yeah......the tories are going to hold all their seats in Scotland.

https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1200025371275669504

Barnesian said:

IanB2 said:

Barnesian said:

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alistair said:

Why are people reheating exactly the same criticism of the YouGov MRP as last time out?

Leigh is the new Canterbury?

There will absolutely be big misses by the MRP forecast. And as I say I think this is the Tory high watermark.

But the whole "I can't believe in large demographic shifts occuring" when the previous election had large demographics shifts occurring is verging on gamblers fallacy.

The objection to MRP is not "I can't believe in large demographic shifts occurring". Clearly they have. It is reflected in the change in voting intention.

What big misses did MRP make last time, in relation to the main parties?

I don't know. I guess you're addressing your question to Alistair?

Writing the script to calculate 2017 accuracy even as we speak.

HYUFD said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Is this new?

Another great poll for SCons

5% swing to the SNP, Tories losing half their seats. And you call that "great"???

We expecting any UK polls today?

Wulfrun_Phil said:

wooliedyed said:

Telegraph with a piece that actually rather than 2017 a landslide is in the offing a la Blair 97

Anything but. If an 11% vote share lead can only generate a 68 seat majority, when 2 other of the most recent polls already have the lead down to 7%, then it suggests that the election is on a knife edge. It is quite plausible now that the Tory lead could end up around 6%, and if so then the MRP is effectively saying that Johnson's majority is all but gone. That;s before addressing the likelihood of some tactical voting understatement in the MRP model.
I made pretty well the same point a few days ago as Cummings is reported as making in the Telegraph yesterday - i.e that a small BXP national vote share still amounts to more than double that at the expense of the Conservatives in the minority of seats the BXP are still standing in, including all the key marginals that Johnson needs to gain.
From the Telegraph:
"Despite the Tories’ consistent lead over Labour, Mr Cummings wrote a blog that he described as a “bat signal” to warn that “Brexit is in danger”. He said: “You will see many polls in the coming days. Some will say Boris will win. Trust me, as someone who has worked on lots of campaigns, things are MUCH tighter than they seem and there is a very real possibility of a hung parliament.” He argued that while the Brexit Party is struggling overall, it is still polling at 10 per cent in marginal seats where the Tories and Labour are neck and neck."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/27/election-result-close-call-warns-dominic-cummings/

I think a Boris final score of between 320-335 seats is very possible.

Pulpstar said:

IanB2 said:

Barnesian said:

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alistair said:

Why are people reheating exactly the same criticism of the YouGov MRP as last time out?

Leigh is the new Canterbury?

There will absolutely be big misses by the MRP forecast. And as I say I think this is the Tory high watermark.

But the whole "I can't believe in large demographic shifts occuring" when the previous election had large demographics shifts occurring is verging on gamblers fallacy.

The objection to MRP is not "I can't believe in large demographic shifts occurring". Clearly they have. It is reflected in the change in voting intention.

What big misses did MRP make last time, in relation to the main parties?

Biggest Labour outperformance of the Tories from MRP to result (Alastair from Edinburgh's figures) / Ben Walker result figures

Bootle
Ilford South
Hackney South & Shoreditch
Knowsley
Liverpool, Walton
Manchester, Gorton
Harrow West
Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill
Denton & Reddish
Birmingham, Hodge Hill

Biggest outperformance of the Tories compared to Labour

Basildon & Billericay
Boston & Skegness
South Swindon
The Cotswolds
Harwich & North Essex
Westmorland & Lonsdale
Castle Point
Newark
Clacton
Thornbury & Yate

In all the above outperformances, the Tories outperformed relative to the Lib Dems (But by a lesser margin) too.

Outperformance by the LDs relative to the Tories

Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
St Albans
Manchester, Gorton
North Norfolk
Bootle
Carshalton & Wallington
Liverpool, Walton
Witney
Leeds North West
Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill

Outperformance by the Tories relative to the Lib Dems

Windsor
Brecon and Radnorshire
Wycombe
Clacton
East Devon
North East Hampshire
Maidstone and The Weald
Solihull
The Cotswolds
Buckingham

My god the tory vs. Labour outperformance is really bad news for Labour in their "marginals".

Just terrible.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Time_to_Leave said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sounds like the 350 million in a day figure is dodgy at best...

The head of one government-linked organisation told the BBC they'd been ordered to plant 10,000 trees, but had to pay for them out of their own budget. So they planted 5,000, but reported the full amount.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-49266983

It seems basically the government gave a huge number of the public seedlings and said please plant them on this day.

So if Jezza going to be instructing us all to start planting trees in our own gardens?

Please don’t tell him I just cut one down.....

You will be joining me in the gulag.

Remember gulags for slags?

Now that's a gulag I'd want to be in.

On PR v FPTP you can’t game a different sort of politics by changing the electoral system.

Brexit, Scottish independence, opposition to mass immigration, left-wing populism - all those political phenomena would have still occurred under PR.

It’s the same electorate with the same concerns, and they eventually work out the right route to make themselves heard.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Wait what?

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1200028306885816320?s=21

There appears to have been something wrong with Hungarian gaydar for the last 60 years.

Tabman said:

Sandpit said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Tabman said:

Philip_Thompson said:

No its not. According to the polls over 40% of voters are voting for Johnson's party and over 30% of voters are voting for Corbyn's party with no other party beating single digits except Swinson's who struggling to be in the low teens. It doesn't matter what electoral system you have with those numbers - either you will have Corbyn or Johnson as PM afterwards.
If you can't stand either then either pick the lesser evil or waste your vote. Those are the candidates to choose from though.

Your argument presupposes that people vote for those parties positively, whereas FPTP encourages people to vote negatively. FPTP forces people into a binary choice because fear of the worst option/the wasted vote argument reinforces it.
Given a free choice, it's highly likely support for the Brexservative Party and the Revolutionary Labour Party would plummet.

Because PR politics is so moderate right?
You wouldn't see the Freedom Party in Austria or Likud in Israel or Five Star or Lega Nord in Italy enter office under PR systems would you? Oh . . .

Don’t forget that the 2015 UK election under PR would have resulted in a massive majority for a Con/UKIP coalition.

Looks like we're on course for a massive ConservativeBrexit Party victory.

Under PR, extremists exist in separate parties. Under FPTP they take over established mainstream ones.

Exactly right which is precisely why our FPTP system has presented with the stunning choice of Corbyn or Johnson and the best either of them can offer us is they aren't as bad as the other one.

Funny that every country in Europe has PR of some sort and I don't see any clamour anywhere to switch to the wonderful British or more acurately English system (as Scotland, Wales and NI already have PR in one form or another)

It's the same mentality, that resulted us being the only country wanting to leave the EU. The delusion that Britain is brighter and better than everyone else.

It’s probably better to quote the seat spread with confidence intervals.

I’d say Tory seats 310-390 right now with a midpoint of 350, more risk on the downside than the upside.

https://mobile.twitter.com/numanmyname/status/1200029205314129920

Ooh

Casino_Royale said:

CarlottaVance said:

Taxi for Mr Leonard!
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1200027992421994496?s=20

Question is whether the SNP are overcooked.

I imagine all this talk is to fire up the base and drive turnout of the “45”.

I work with someone who's partner worked on this poll.

The main question they were grappling with was how to deal with their historical 5 point overstatement of the SNP.

They were talking about simply knocking 5 points off the score at the end of the process.

So whilst I don't know exactly what they've done they've absolutely been looking at the SNP score with extreme detail.

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Casino_Royale said:

CarlottaVance said:

Taxi for Mr Leonard!
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1200027992421994496?s=20

Question is whether the SNP are overcooked.

I imagine all this talk is to fire up the base and drive turnout of the “45”.

A SLab leadership election could be just the tonic, plenty of laughs to be had contemplating the talent and charisma free zone that is the SLab MSP base.

Get your money on James Kelly for extra LOLZ.

It may be time for Anas.

Careful how you say that, just in case there are any Hungarians looking in.

https://twitter.com/p_surridge/status/1200029213396471809?s=20
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1200029994606571520?s=20

Re: tree planting - has anyone made the obvious joke about Labour being unable to see the wood for the trees?
Ok, as you were.

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/p_surridge/status/1200029213396471809?s=20
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1200029994606571520?s=20

Maybe they've just written off Scotland and are banking on the SNP voting with them anyway?

Stocky said:

Blimey, Tories now favourites to win Norfolk North. I backed them a couple of weeks ago at 3/1 (annoyingly only for £15).
Norman Lamb a serious loss for LibDems - but I`m now tempted at these odds to back the LibDems to hold on.

He is a serious loss to parliament in general...

FrancisUrquhart said:

Stocky said:

Blimey, Tories now favourites to win Norfolk North. I backed them a couple of weeks ago at 3/1 (annoyingly only for £15).
Norman Lamb a serious loss for LibDems - but I`m now tempted at these odds to back the LibDems to hold on.

He is a serious loss to parliament in general...

Agreed, I was a big fan.

Blimey... lib dem canvasser at our door - first time ever.

Meant to ask why they'd got in to bed with Welsh nationalists and how revoking was a real turn off but was on the phone with a client so just took the leaflet and went!

Damn.

Cyclefree said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Cyclefree said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Philip_Thompson said:

There is no mechanism within our Parliamentary democracy for a third party after an election to demand another party change its leader.

And no self-respecting party is going to agree to another party saying its leader must be XXX.

But a self-respecting party is entitled to say “we won’t support you under your current leadership.”
Corbyn handing over to McDonnell is no improvement. McDonnell is a dangerous man. If the Lib Dems give any impression at all that they will support either of them in power they risk losing even more votes from people who cannot abide them and/or think of them as Leavers.
I simply do not trust Corbyn or McDonnell with power. I don’t trust Johnson either.
The Lib Dems seem to be going nowhere, even in my constituency if that poll is right.
So what to do?

You're Kilburn & Hampstead, no?

Sitting MP Tulip Siddiq is pretty good. She's no Corbynista and strongly pro-Remain. She won't necessarily hold on though, if what i hear is correct. The LDs are expecting a strong performance.

You're spoilt for choice, Ms Cyclefree!

Tulip is ok. She has been very active in trying to help that poor Iranian woman locked up in prison. She rather blotted her copybook in relation to the Bangladeshi man who asked for her help and the nasty way she responded to the Channel 4 reporter.
But it doesn’t matter that she was pro Remain and that she’s not a Corbynista. A vote for her is a vote for Corbyn as PM, McDonnell as Chancellor and Corbynista policies. She’s deluding herself and the voters if she thinks - or tries to pretend - otherwise.
Same for all the other Labour MPS who are trying to pretend Corbyn is not their leader.
Edited: and indeed all those Labour voters deluding themselves they can get Labour without Corbyn.

The only conceivable way to get Labour without Cornyn would be if the Lib Dems held the balance of power.

Stocky said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Stocky said:

Blimey, Tories now favourites to win Norfolk North. I backed them a couple of weeks ago at 3/1 (annoyingly only for £15).
Norman Lamb a serious loss for LibDems - but I`m now tempted at these odds to back the LibDems to hold on.

He is a serious loss to parliament in general...

Agreed, I was a big fan.

By all accounts a very good minister and, were it not for that idiot Lansley blocking him, he could have done a lot of good earlier in the coalition (and helped spare us the idiotic Health Act).

FrancisUrquhart said:

dyingswan said:

I see that the Labour pivot to Leave has begun. Ed Miliband says that he wants to get Brexit sorted. He claims to have voted for a deal 9 times. He should have put it on a headstone.

Totally shameless. And I fear enough people will buy this BS.

I am still waiting for the Tories to begin their campaign....like last time, they appear to be leaving it very late! Did they not learn anything from 2010/2015, you attack from the moment you get in power and never let up. You don't wait until you are attacked, then react, it is too late.

e.g. they must have known Jezza would try the NHS up for sale stuff, why was Boris out on every hospital visit saying I can guarantee you, the NHS will never be part of a trade deal, etc etc etc.

Possibly because the NHS will be part of the trade deal and to say it won't is to tar the start of your government?

Pulpstar said:

Looks like Labour are back to Ian Murray island in Scotland.
I expect the borders will stay Tory, as will WAK, Banff and probably Moray.
East Renfrewshire and Aberdeen South to be very close ?
Dunno about Gordon, that one came out of nowhere last time - could have been an anti-Salmond vote.

Thanks for that, just got 6/4 with Bet Victor on Tories to win Aberdeen South. Should be odds-on.