politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The political divide between mums and dads, poor Ipsos MORI ra
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It seems to me your interpretation of where the election goes rests on your assumption of turnout for persons aged 18/24, so heavily are they in the Corbyn column.
If you think turnout there will be high, hung parliament.
If not, tory majority.0 -
Presumably they could threaten negative coverage for the rest of the campaign.RobD said:.
Can they legally do that?tlg86 said:
The BBC should threaten to give the Tories no coverage for the rest of the campaign if he doesn’t do the interview.RobD said:
He's right. The BBC shouldn't have given assurances to Labour about Johnson's interview if it wasn't confirmed.El_Capitano said:0 -
I think there is a very real possibility of the Senate falling to the Democrats.noneoftheabove said:
The Senate is unlikely to break democrat so Pres Warren likely also means no trade deal as the senate will block whatever she wants. I think the probability of getting a US trade deal by 2025 is sub 10%, and if we get one, it will be minimalistic simply to allow Johnson and Trump to claim personal success rather than achieve any benefit for either of the nations they are supposed to represent.Gabs3 said:
Depends on the President. President Warren might use it to reduce US drug prices!noneoftheabove said:0 -
So are you suggesting the Labour Party are not very good at negotiations?nico67 said:The BBC are acting very badly by telling Labour that Johnson was confirmed for AN when he wasn’t .
At least if he had been confirmed then if he then pulled out he might get some bad headlines , now he can just say that his busy timetable meant he couldn’t fit it in.0 -
Um team, could someone explain why Electoral Calculus has slashed its predicted Cons seat majority from 68 to 34?
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I doubt if that would be legal.tlg86 said:
The BBC should threaten to give the Tories no coverage for the rest of the campaign if he doesn’t do the interview.RobD said:
He's right. The BBC shouldn't have given assurances to Labour about Johnson's interview if it wasn't confirmed.El_Capitano said:0 -
The amazing thing, too, is that Trump barely knows any of them, and has not met most of them.Foxy said:
Greater self love has he who lays down his friends for his life...Nigelb said:Trump displaying his usual loyalty...
https://twitter.com/TheBeatWithAri/status/1199468634621566976
It is an extraordinarily unfortunate position to be in, surrounded by convicted criminals yet as pure and innocent as Trump.0 -
To answer the question in your second sentence - because of 2017.alb1on said:I have read the various comments about the BFB MRP (and other MRPs) with some interest. Why people insist on placing any reliance on individual constituency forecasts is beyond me. Whilst these models are a big step forward in forecasting overall results, they have similar weaknesses to traditional models in looking locally. In many ways they are similar to the general linearised models used in insurance pricing (and now superseded by more sophisticated models). These used many more variables, had a dataset comprising millions (often tens of millions) of risk years (rather than tens of thousands of respondents) - and still there were significant variances between postcodes (their equivalent to constituencies) which were forecast to produce a similar result.
I suggest everyone focus on the big picture from MRPs and not get excited about individual constituencies. The variations will largely cancel out overall (although this may not be the case for smaller parties where factors not in use may become more important - the equivalent of age tails in pricing).
At the time of that final YouGov MRP we were taking the projection with a huge pinch of salt. And then the results rolled round...
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I don't think the YouGov MRP matters too much for betting markets - it was done (on average at least) when Con were about 12% ahead and that is going to equate to approx Con 350 seats. We all already know that.
What matters much, much more is new, really up to date, polling.0 -
Just as a point of fact, Labour stopped being supported by most British Jews before Corbyn became leader, with support dropping significantly under Ed Miliband. According to the Spectator it was due to Miliband opposing Israeli policies. Miliband was presumably not an anti Semite.Cyclefree said:
That may well be so. But interesting to note nonetheless - especially when 2 years ago Labour was claiming that only they could unlock the potential of ethnic minorities.Foxy said:
Considering that the Hindu Council's objection to the Labour party is that the LP opposed Modi's closing of social media, locking up of activists and withdrawal of autonomy for Kashmir, so presumably not fascist enough for them!Cyclefree said:
I’d have thought that the day before the launch of a party’s race and faith manifesto is exactly the time for a religious leader to make a comment about that party’s attitude to one particular faith/race.roserees64 said:All I was saying is that Rabbi Mirvis is a friend and supporter of Boris Johnson so therefore not a neutral observer. The choice of date for the release of his comments just before the launch of Labour's race and faith manifesto made them less powerful because it was such a deliberate act.
I hope that Rabbi Mirvis and Corbyn now meet to discuss all the issues in a productive manner.
You also choose to ignore what the Hindu Council UK wrote about Labour - “It is a sad state of affairs that a major political party in our country which used to be a progressive socialist voice has veered towards what almost is a fascist ideology.".
For years Labour was pretty much the default party for British Jews. Now it isn’t. Other minorities might well look at Labour and wonder: “Could we be thrown over too, if it suits a particular leader?”1 -
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That is very much my view.contrarian said:It seems to me your interpretation of where the election goes rests on your assumption of turnout for persons aged 18/24, so heavily are they in the Corbyn column.
If you think turnout there will be high, hung parliament.
If not, tory majority.0 -
A statistical method is a tool. No tool is magic, and in the wrong hands can be dangerous.Foxy said:
I think the other MRP in 2017 predicted a May majority of 50, but has been buried by history. It is a method but isn't magic.BluerBlue said:Caveat on YouGov MRP: has any one pollster / polling method ever gotten the result spot on in two consecutive elections? If not, then shouldn't we discount its accuracy for that reason alone, despite the temptation to believe it because it was so good last time?
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Look at that trend....if that carries on it will be down to 4-5% come the 12th Dec.Andrew said:0 -
Perhaps he can share his views on this issue when he speaks to Andrew Neil.KentRising said:
Of course he is wrong on this issue, as he is on everything.0 -
Didn’t the first MRP in 2017 show a 5 point lead?Andrew said:0 -
Talk about shitting the bed. It could also flatline or go the other way.FrancisUrquhart said:
Look at that trend....if that carries on it will be down to 4-5% come the 12th Dec.Andrew said:0 -
Agreed. They had labour predicted votes I think at 29.9pc and now at 31.1. Lab seats was I think 208 or 209. Now 225.RobD said:
Couple of good polls for Labour. ICM in particular.TOPPING said:Um team, could someone explain why Electoral Calculus has slashed its predicted Cons seat majority from 68 to 34?
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The momentum is all with Labour...and it is clear they are going to throw the kitchen sink at it, no matter if it is unaffordable or untrue...and it seems all the BS is doing the trick.Brom said:
Talk about shitting the bed. It could also flatline or go the other way.FrancisUrquhart said:
Look at that trend....if that carries on it will be down to 4-5% come the 12th Dec.Andrew said:0 -
Looks remarkably similar to my lead chart, if I don’t say so myself.
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They were going to do that whatever the polling situation was like!FrancisUrquhart said:
The momentum is all with Labour...and it is clear they are going to throw the kitchen sink at it, no matter if it is unaffordable or untrue.Brom said:
Talk about shitting the bed. It could also flatline or go the other way.FrancisUrquhart said:
Look at that trend....if that carries on it will be down to 4-5% come the 12th Dec.Andrew said:0 -
My point was it looks like it is working though.RobD said:
They were going to do that whatever the polling situation was like!FrancisUrquhart said:
The momentum is all with Labour...and it is clear they are going to throw the kitchen sink at it, no matter if it is unaffordable or untrue.Brom said:
Talk about shitting the bed. It could also flatline or go the other way.FrancisUrquhart said:
Look at that trend....if that carries on it will be down to 4-5% come the 12th Dec.Andrew said:0 -
As I said, the local result variances largely cancel out so the overall forecast is a clear improvement on previous models - but the accuracy of individual constituency forecasts will vary significantly. And the effect on forecasts for smaller parties can be seen with PC - where the forecast said 2 seats and they won 4.numbertwelve said:
To answer the question in your second sentence - because of 2017.alb1on said:I have read the various comments about the BFB MRP (and other MRPs) with some interest. Why people insist on placing any reliance on individual constituency forecasts is beyond me. Whilst these models are a big step forward in forecasting overall results, they have similar weaknesses to traditional models in looking locally. In many ways they are similar to the general linearised models used in insurance pricing (and now superseded by more sophisticated models). These used many more variables, had a dataset comprising millions (often tens of millions) of risk years (rather than tens of thousands of respondents) - and still there were significant variances between postcodes (their equivalent to constituencies) which were forecast to produce a similar result.
I suggest everyone focus on the big picture from MRPs and not get excited about individual constituencies. The variations will largely cancel out overall (although this may not be the case for smaller parties where factors not in use may become more important - the equivalent of age tails in pricing).
At the time of that final YouGov MRP we were taking the projection with a huge pinch of salt. And then the results rolled round...0 -
Francis has just shat himself.FrancisUrquhart said:
Look at that trend....if that carries on it will be down to 4-5% come the 12th Dec.Andrew said:0 -
What's your most recent version look like?RobD said:Looks remarkably similar to my lead chart, if I don’t say so myself.
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No, just booked a flight :-)Jason said:
Francis has just shat himself.FrancisUrquhart said:
Look at that trend....if that carries on it will be down to 4-5% come the 12th Dec.Andrew said:0 -
Of course they will, it's an election. But with 2 weeks to go they are a long way from a hung parliament and have just come off a nightmare 24 hours. I'm still predicting a hung parliament with 43/37 or something similar but the Tories are in a decent place 2 weeks out.FrancisUrquhart said:
The momentum is all with Labour...and it is clear they are going to throw the kitchen sink at it, no matter if it is unaffordable or untrue.Brom said:
Talk about shitting the bed. It could also flatline or go the other way.FrancisUrquhart said:
Look at that trend....if that carries on it will be down to 4-5% come the 12th Dec.Andrew said:0 -
I can see Maine and Arizona falling (with Alabama maybe returning to the Republicans), but other changes are a stretch - which will make a change of control tough to achieve.TimT said:
I think there is a very real possibility of the Senate falling to the Democrats.noneoftheabove said:
The Senate is unlikely to break democrat so Pres Warren likely also means no trade deal as the senate will block whatever she wants. I think the probability of getting a US trade deal by 2025 is sub 10%, and if we get one, it will be minimalistic simply to allow Johnson and Trump to claim personal success rather than achieve any benefit for either of the nations they are supposed to represent.Gabs3 said:
Depends on the President. President Warren might use it to reduce US drug prices!noneoftheabove said:0 -
That has to be the worst result possible. We end up with years more silly buggery over Brexit and Corbynism will be set in now for the long term within the Labour Party, and the Lib Dems are still totally irrelevant.Brom said:
Of course they will, it's an election. But with 2 weeks to go they are a long way from a hung parliament and have just come off a nightmare 24 hours. I'm still predicting a hung parliament with 43/37 or something similar but the Tories are in a decent place 2 weeks out.FrancisUrquhart said:
The momentum is all with Labour...and it is clear they are going to throw the kitchen sink at it, no matter if it is unaffordable or untrue.Brom said:
Talk about shitting the bed. It could also flatline or go the other way.FrancisUrquhart said:
Look at that trend....if that carries on it will be down to 4-5% come the 12th Dec.Andrew said:0 -
As ever, we need more pollsPhilip_Thompson said:
What's your most recent version look like?RobD said:Looks remarkably similar to my lead chart, if I don’t say so myself.
https://imgur.com/oUjR66V0 -
Apparently Cummings has a new blog post saying the race is much tighter than the polls imply
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At least he is on message.contrarian said:Apparently Cummings has a new blog post saying the race is much tighter than the polls imply
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The trend now looks like it will be exactly the same result as last time....RobD said:
As ever, we need more pollsPhilip_Thompson said:
What's your most recent version look like?RobD said:Looks remarkably similar to my lead chart, if I don’t say so myself.
https://imgur.com/oUjR66V0 -
Mandy Rice-Davies Applies.contrarian said:Apparently Cummings has a new blog post saying the race is much tighter than the polls imply
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Why would anyone take seriously anything he posts during an election campaign ?contrarian said:Apparently Cummings has a new blog post saying the race is much tighter than the polls imply
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Next polls will be crucial... as always.FrancisUrquhart said:
The trend now looks like it will result in an exactly the same result as last time....RobD said:
As ever, we need more pollsPhilip_Thompson said:
What's your most recent version look like?RobD said:Looks remarkably similar to my lead chart, if I don’t say so myself.
https://imgur.com/oUjR66V0 -
It does not. The Conservative lead is what it was four weeks ago.FrancisUrquhart said:
The trend now looks like it will be exactly the same result as last time....RobD said:
As ever, we need more pollsPhilip_Thompson said:
What's your most recent version look like?RobD said:Looks remarkably similar to my lead chart, if I don’t say so myself.
https://imgur.com/oUjR66V1 -
One imagines that Labour, with their perverse analysis, saw the unredacted us/uk trade talk documents as their election trump card, likely to have been held until the last minute, as they saw it as clinching their latest '24 hours to save the NHS " bollocks.
Today looks like both complete panic over Neil's Corbyn interviews and that they don't think they can win without a black swan event.
Hence to me c10% lead holding for Boris is very probable on election day.0 -
You will see many polls in the coming days. Some will say Boris will win. Trust me, as someone who has worked on lots of campaigns, things are MUCH tighter than they seem and there is a very real possibility of a hung parliament.FrancisUrquhart said:
The trend now looks like it will be exactly the same result as last time....RobD said:
As ever, we need more pollsPhilip_Thompson said:
What's your most recent version look like?RobD said:Looks remarkably similar to my lead chart, if I don’t say so myself.
https://imgur.com/oUjR66V
Without a majority, the nightmare continues. ALL other MPs will gang together to stop Brexit and give EU citizens the vote. It’s that simple.
https://dominiccummings.com/2019/11/27/on-the-referendum-34-batsignal-dont-let-corbyn-sturgeon-cheat-a-second-referendum-with-millions-of-foreign-votes/0 -
Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.0
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If you extrapolate the trend line....Sean_F said:
It does not. The Conservative lead is what it was four weeks ago.FrancisUrquhart said:
The trend now looks like it will be exactly the same result as last time....RobD said:
As ever, we need more pollsPhilip_Thompson said:
What's your most recent version look like?RobD said:Looks remarkably similar to my lead chart, if I don’t say so myself.
https://imgur.com/oUjR66V0 -
This one I'm less sure about, given the innards of YG's model have only been hinted at (and will have evolved from last):
https://twitter.com/326Pols/status/11997399151116738570 -
Quite. You'd think Labour were fighting a brilliant campaign and storming to victory.Jason said:Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
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Well they clearly had a manifesto bounce, but if someone had offered you Labour making zero progress after 4 weeks of the campaign every Tory would have loved it. Lab have improved in the past few days but it appears more a bounce than a surge as things have stabilised in the past 2 days.FrancisUrquhart said:
That has to be the worst result possible. We end up with years more silly buggery over Brexit and Corbynism will be set in now for the long term within the Labour Party, and the Lib Dems are still totally irrelevant.Brom said:
Of course they will, it's an election. But with 2 weeks to go they are a long way from a hung parliament and have just come off a nightmare 24 hours. I'm still predicting a hung parliament with 43/37 or something similar but the Tories are in a decent place 2 weeks out.FrancisUrquhart said:
The momentum is all with Labour...and it is clear they are going to throw the kitchen sink at it, no matter if it is unaffordable or untrue.Brom said:
Talk about shitting the bed. It could also flatline or go the other way.FrancisUrquhart said:
Look at that trend....if that carries on it will be down to 4-5% come the 12th Dec.Andrew said:0 -
These long drawn out election campaigns simply aren’t viable in the binge-watching era.
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Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.Jason said:Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
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Trend since when?FrancisUrquhart said:
If you extrapolate the trend line....Sean_F said:
It does not. The Conservative lead is what it was four weeks ago.FrancisUrquhart said:
The trend now looks like it will be exactly the same result as last time....RobD said:
As ever, we need more pollsPhilip_Thompson said:
What's your most recent version look like?RobD said:Looks remarkably similar to my lead chart, if I don’t say so myself.
https://imgur.com/oUjR66V
Do you start at the peak and say there is continual falling in the line?
Or do you start at the start and say there was a Tory bounce that has faded away and there has been a reversion to mean?0 -
tl;dr: Vote Conservative.FrancisUrquhart said:
You will see many polls in the coming days. Some will say Boris will win. Trust me, as someone who has worked on lots of campaigns, things are MUCH tighter than they seem and there is a very real possibility of a hung parliament.FrancisUrquhart said:
The trend now looks like it will be exactly the same result as last time....RobD said:
As ever, we need more pollsPhilip_Thompson said:
What's your most recent version look like?RobD said:Looks remarkably similar to my lead chart, if I don’t say so myself.
https://imgur.com/oUjR66V
Without a majority, the nightmare continues. ALL other MPs will gang together to stop Brexit and give EU citizens the vote. It’s that simple.
https://dominiccummings.com/2019/11/27/on-the-referendum-34-batsignal-dont-let-corbyn-sturgeon-cheat-a-second-referendum-with-millions-of-foreign-votes/0 -
Scotland, the north and midlands, Wales, the south and London, the south east and south west all have the potential for very different swings
I have no idea how any poll or poll of polls can predict the actual result. Personally I think it is going to be close with a small majority for Boris
I would suggest the key is those remainers who despise Corbyn as much as I do but think voting labour gives them a path to a referendum and to ensure Corbyn is impotent to do anything. It is a dangerous path to tread as it could just give Corbyn power1 -
As I keep repeating....these 10+ point leads for the Tories are all based on Northern working class voters changing the habit of a lifetime and ditching Labour for the Tories in large numbers. I wouldn't want to stake my life on that happening.Brom said:
Well they clearly had a manifesto bounce, but if someone had offered you Labour making zero progress after 4 weeks of the campaign every Tory would have loved it. Lab have improved in the past few days but it appears more a bounce than a surge as things have stabilised in the past 2 days.FrancisUrquhart said:
That has to be the worst result possible. We end up with years more silly buggery over Brexit and Corbynism will be set in now for the long term within the Labour Party, and the Lib Dems are still totally irrelevant.Brom said:
Of course they will, it's an election. But with 2 weeks to go they are a long way from a hung parliament and have just come off a nightmare 24 hours. I'm still predicting a hung parliament with 43/37 or something similar but the Tories are in a decent place 2 weeks out.FrancisUrquhart said:
The momentum is all with Labour...and it is clear they are going to throw the kitchen sink at it, no matter if it is unaffordable or untrue.Brom said:
Talk about shitting the bed. It could also flatline or go the other way.FrancisUrquhart said:
Look at that trend....if that carries on it will be down to 4-5% come the 12th Dec.Andrew said:
For me, if the Tories can be consistency polling 13-14% ahead, then it doesn't matter if a load of them get cold feet. But we are now talking 10% and declining.0 -
That's a little bit of an exaggeration: Canada, for example, is both a member of NAFTA and has the CETA agreement with the EU.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's a statement of the bleedin' obvious. To take a simple example, to do any kind of trade deal with the EU we'll have to sign up to keeping their regulations for Protected Designations of Origin (and a jolly good thing too). The US doesn't like these, because they want to be able to sell us fraudulent products masquerading as Parmesan etc. Clearly we can't please both.nico67 said:But the passage of the document clearly suggests that in international forums the UK could complicate a trade deal if it dares to go against the US line .
https://www.forbes.com/sites/larryolmsted/2012/11/19/the-dark-side-of-parmesan-cheese-what-you-dont-know-might-hurt-you/#67770a8c4645
The other crucial point to note is that, because of considerations like this, it follows that we can't finalise anything much in the way of trade deals outside the EU until we've finalised the relationship with the EU. So don't hold your breath for that US trade deal!
Worth remembering the law of "concentrated losses and diffuse gains"; there will be pressure from some farmers in the UK to keep Protected Designations of Origin, particularly from Stilton makers. (Coincidentally, I was quite horrified to discover the Jersey Royals I bought at the excessively expensive Erehwon were in fact not from Jersey.)0 -
Not really. A parliament accurately representing a divided country is surely a good thing.FrancisUrquhart said:
That has to be the worst result possible. We end up with years more silly buggery over Brexit and Corbynism will be set in now for the long term within the Labour Party, and the Lib Dems are still totally irrelevant.Brom said:
Of course they will, it's an election. But with 2 weeks to go they are a long way from a hung parliament and have just come off a nightmare 24 hours. I'm still predicting a hung parliament with 43/37 or something similar but the Tories are in a decent place 2 weeks out.FrancisUrquhart said:
The momentum is all with Labour...and it is clear they are going to throw the kitchen sink at it, no matter if it is unaffordable or untrue.Brom said:
Talk about shitting the bed. It could also flatline or go the other way.FrancisUrquhart said:
Look at that trend....if that carries on it will be down to 4-5% come the 12th Dec.Andrew said:0 -
Not if you own a business it isn't. Even a Labour win, will their stupid re-re-re-negotiate and vote against referendum, will at least set out a a timetable where we will know that there will be a vote in 12 months.Foxy said:
Not really. A parliament accurately representing a divided country is surely a good thing.FrancisUrquhart said:
That has to be the worst result possible. We end up with years more silly buggery over Brexit and Corbynism will be set in now for the long term within the Labour Party, and the Lib Dems are still totally irrelevant.Brom said:
Of course they will, it's an election. But with 2 weeks to go they are a long way from a hung parliament and have just come off a nightmare 24 hours. I'm still predicting a hung parliament with 43/37 or something similar but the Tories are in a decent place 2 weeks out.FrancisUrquhart said:
The momentum is all with Labour...and it is clear they are going to throw the kitchen sink at it, no matter if it is unaffordable or untrue.Brom said:
Talk about shitting the bed. It could also flatline or go the other way.FrancisUrquhart said:
Look at that trend....if that carries on it will be down to 4-5% come the 12th Dec.Andrew said:0 -
Francis, if I offered you a 10 point average Tory lead with just 2 weeks to go before the election, you would have snapped my hand off. I just don't understand your craven attitude. It's almost as though you secretly want Corbyn to win.FrancisUrquhart said:
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.Jason said:Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
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Relax. The Tory share is pretty stable. We’ve yet to see a substantial shift from one main party to the other.FrancisUrquhart said:
As I keep repeating....these 10+ point leads for the Tories are all based on Northern working class voters changing the habit of a lifetime and ditching Labour for the Tories in large numbers. I wouldn't want to stake my life on that happening.Brom said:
Well they clearly had a manifesto bounce, but if someone had offered you Labour making zero progress after 4 weeks of the campaign every Tory would have loved it. Lab have improved in the past few days but it appears more a bounce than a surge as things have stabilised in the past 2 days.FrancisUrquhart said:
That has to be the worst result possible. We end up with years more silly buggery over Brexit and Corbynism will be set in now for the long term within the Labour Party, and the Lib Dems are still totally irrelevant.Brom said:
Of course they will, it's an election. But with 2 weeks to go they are a long way from a hung parliament and have just come off a nightmare 24 hours. I'm still predicting a hung parliament with 43/37 or something similar but the Tories are in a decent place 2 weeks out.FrancisUrquhart said:
The momentum is all with Labour...and it is clear they are going to throw the kitchen sink at it, no matter if it is unaffordable or untrue.Brom said:
Talk about shitting the bed. It could also flatline or go the other way.FrancisUrquhart said:
Look at that trend....if that carries on it will be down to 4-5% come the 12th Dec.Andrew said:
For me, if the Tories can be consistency polling 13-14% ahead, then it doesn't matter if a load of them get cold feet. But we are now talking 10% and declining.
Not saying Labour can’t do it, but 2 weeks out that’s not the picture.0 -
Francis represents the headless chicken panic wing of the Tory party.Jason said:
Francis, if I offered you a 10 point average Tory lead with just 2 weeks to go before the election, you would have snapped my hand off. I just don't understand your craven attitude. It's almost as though you secretly want Corbyn to win.FrancisUrquhart said:
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.Jason said:Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
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It will be an excellent result. It will mean that Mr Johnson will have to work with other parties to form a consensus. That is good for the country.FrancisUrquhart said:
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.Jason said:Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
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I do hope Tory Party HQ Is a bit more resilient than some of its supporters on here.0
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I largely agree, different swings in different regions. There is a political realignment going on.Big_G_NorthWales said:Scotland, the north and midlands, Wales, the south and London, the south east and south west all have the potential for very different swings
I have no idea how any poll or poll of polls can predict the actual result. Personally I think it is going to be close with a small majority for Boris
I would suggest the key is those remainers who despise Corbyn as much as I do but think voting labour gives them a path to a referendum and to ensure Corbyn is impotent to do anything. It is a dangerous path to tread as it could just give Corbyn power
Remainers can perfectly safely vote LD though, no need to vote Labour. Indeed that is what I shall be doing.
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Betfair now at 1.44 for a Conservative majority
Went in at 1.95 so price has tightened considerably since then, but that doesn't mean it's going to happen.
Also went in on LD at 5-9.99% at 23. It's now 6.6.0 -
No it doesn't. The LDs won't collaborate with any grouping led by Corbyn, and won't help the fat sexpest into office. Since the perv treats poliltiocal "allies" the way he treats his women, no other grouping (except the TBP, who are unlikely to get any seats at all) will work with him and there's no route to power for the Tories except by firing the groper.FrancisUrquhart said:
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.Jason said:Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
So, unless there's a hung parliament in which the LDs have been smashed, Dec 13 will start with the two major parties chucking out the self-indulgent oafs who've destroyed them and those remaining forming a civilised government of serious politicians.0 -
If we were talking about Cameron and Clegg having to work together, sure. But we are talking about two polar opposites. It won't get anywhere for years.eristdoof said:
It will be an excellent result. It will mean that Mr Johnson will have to work with other parties to form a consensus. That is good for the country.FrancisUrquhart said:
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.Jason said:Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
0 -
So I think the interview last night will achieve one thing, it has made all of the chatter about Labour negative again, where everyone was previously talking about Labour spending whatever and the rich paying, I think more people are realising that it won't just be the rich paying. The AS non-apology seems to have had zero traction today, but the tax admission and the borrowing for WASPIs has definitely been noticed.0
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If the alternative is 5 more years of Tory hegemony, this one does.FrancisUrquhart said:
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.Jason said:Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
0 -
That would be the ideal result, both Corbyn and Johnson getting their P45's.Flanner said:
No it doesn't. The LDs won't collaborate with any grouping led by Corbyn, and won't help the fat sexpest into office. Since the perv treats poliltiocal "allies" the way he treats his women, no other grouping (except the TBP, who are unlikely to get any seats at all) will work with him and there's no route to power for the Tories except by firing the groper.FrancisUrquhart said:
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.Jason said:Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
So, unless there's a hung parliament in which the LDs have been smashed, Dec 13 will start with the two major parties chucking out the self-indulgent oafs who've destroyed them and those remaining forming a civilised government of serious politicians.0 -
They won't though, will they. And the Lib Dems will still be absolutely nowhere and a total irrelevance.Foxy said:
That would be the ideal result, both Corbyn and Johnson getting their P45's.Flanner said:
No it doesn't. The LDs won't collaborate with any grouping led by Corbyn, and won't help the fat sexpest into office. Since the perv treats poliltiocal "allies" the way he treats his women, no other grouping (except the TBP, who are unlikely to get any seats at all) will work with him and there's no route to power for the Tories except by firing the groper.FrancisUrquhart said:
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.Jason said:Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
So, unless there's a hung parliament in which the LDs have been smashed, Dec 13 will start with the two major parties chucking out the self-indulgent oafs who've destroyed them and those remaining forming a civilised government of serious politicians.0 -
Exactly where it was Monday morning. Nothing this week has moved it - net. 😂JamesP said:Betfair now at 1.44 for a Conservative majority
0 -
Colorado is almost certain to fall. The Dems have a more than decent chance in North Carolina too.alb1on said:
I can see Maine and Arizona falling (with Alabama maybe returning to the Republicans), but other changes are a stretch - which will make a change of control tough to achieve.TimT said:
I think there is a very real possibility of the Senate falling to the Democrats.noneoftheabove said:
The Senate is unlikely to break democrat so Pres Warren likely also means no trade deal as the senate will block whatever she wants. I think the probability of getting a US trade deal by 2025 is sub 10%, and if we get one, it will be minimalistic simply to allow Johnson and Trump to claim personal success rather than achieve any benefit for either of the nations they are supposed to represent.Gabs3 said:
Depends on the President. President Warren might use it to reduce US drug prices!noneoftheabove said:0 -
I highly doubt with all the other stuff going on anybody has noticed that slip by Corbyn....also if you didn't realize that already you don't want to know.MaxPB said:So I think the interview last night will achieve one thing, it has made all of the chatter about Labour negative again, where everyone was previously talking about Labour spending whatever and the rich paying, I think more people are realising that it won't just be the rich paying. The AS non-apology seems to have had zero traction today, but the tax admission and the borrowing for WASPIs has definitely been noticed.
0 -
No - I can understand it. It is a defence mechanism against the result you fear mostJason said:
Francis, if I offered you a 10 point average Tory lead with just 2 weeks to go before the election, you would have snapped my hand off. I just don't understand your craven attitude. It's almost as though you secretly want Corbyn to win.FrancisUrquhart said:
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.Jason said:Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
Many will understand that0 -
After the ICM yesterdfay Con Maj went 1.56... 24 hours later 1.43-1.44. Oppose rogue polls!0
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It's moved a fair bit in the last hour.Philip_Thompson said:
Exactly where it was Monday morning. Nothing this week has moved it - net. 😂JamesP said:Betfair now at 1.44 for a Conservative majority
0 -
I'm seriously worried about this health. If the gaps does close - as he seems to have convinced himself it will - it might just send him over the edge. I suggested a soothing medicament, but that doesn't seem to have worked. In fact, the polar opposite if anything.RobD said:
Francis represents the headless chicken panic wing of the Tory party.Jason said:
Francis, if I offered you a 10 point average Tory lead with just 2 weeks to go before the election, you would have snapped my hand off. I just don't understand your craven attitude. It's almost as though you secretly want Corbyn to win.FrancisUrquhart said:
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.Jason said:Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
Look, nobody dreads seeing that demented old racist bastard Corbyn in number 10 more than I do, but I just do not see how he can get the numbers even if there is a hung parliament. They would need to gain at least 20 seats and the numbers are miles away from that. They got over 40% of the vote in the last election and got just 262 seats.0 -
The voters being targeted for the WASPI stuff are very very aware of it and basically being told that it's money that they haven't got will move some of the back away from Jez.FrancisUrquhart said:
I highly doubt with all the other stuff going on anybody has noticed that slip by Corbyn....also if you didn't realize that already you don't want to know.MaxPB said:So I think the interview last night will achieve one thing, it has made all of the chatter about Labour negative again, where everyone was previously talking about Labour spending whatever and the rich paying, I think more people are realising that it won't just be the rich paying. The AS non-apology seems to have had zero traction today, but the tax admission and the borrowing for WASPIs has definitely been noticed.
0 -
In an ideal world I would like the lib dems to become the opposition and see Corbyn gone totallyFoxy said:
I largely agree, different swings in different regions. There is a political realignment going on.Big_G_NorthWales said:Scotland, the north and midlands, Wales, the south and London, the south east and south west all have the potential for very different swings
I have no idea how any poll or poll of polls can predict the actual result. Personally I think it is going to be close with a small majority for Boris
I would suggest the key is those remainers who despise Corbyn as much as I do but think voting labour gives them a path to a referendum and to ensure Corbyn is impotent to do anything. It is a dangerous path to tread as it could just give Corbyn power
Remainers can perfectly safely vote LD though, no need to vote Labour. Indeed that is what I shall be doing.1 -
Why the obsession with his sex life? It just screams "incel."Flanner said:
No it doesn't. The LDs won't collaborate with any grouping led by Corbyn, and won't help the fat sexpest into office. Since the perv treats poliltiocal "allies" the way he treats his women, no other grouping (except the TBP, who are unlikely to get any seats at all) will work with him and there's no route to power for the Tories except by firing the groper.FrancisUrquhart said:
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.Jason said:Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
So, unless there's a hung parliament in which the LDs have been smashed, Dec 13 will start with the two major parties chucking out the self-indulgent oafs who've destroyed them and those remaining forming a civilised government of serious politicians.1 -
My local authority (East Hampshire) is sending out its postals tomorrow, including mine.
So it could be that 20% of votes have been cast already by this time next week.0 -
RIP Clive James, dies today aged 800
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Yes I know Big G, I just thought it was obvious enough not to have to explain it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No - I can understand it. It is a defence mechanism against the result you fear mostJason said:
Francis, if I offered you a 10 point average Tory lead with just 2 weeks to go before the election, you would have snapped my hand off. I just don't understand your craven attitude. It's almost as though you secretly want Corbyn to win.FrancisUrquhart said:
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.Jason said:Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
Many will understand that0 -
What you write isn't possible. The Lib Dems have no power to force out either parties leader let alone both.Flanner said:
No it doesn't. The LDs won't collaborate with any grouping led by Corbyn, and won't help the fat sexpest into office. Since the perv treats poliltiocal "allies" the way he treats his women, no other grouping (except the TBP, who are unlikely to get any seats at all) will work with him and there's no route to power for the Tories except by firing the groper.FrancisUrquhart said:
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.Jason said:Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
So, unless there's a hung parliament in which the LDs have been smashed, Dec 13 will start with the two major parties chucking out the self-indulgent oafs who've destroyed them and those remaining forming a civilised government of serious politicians.
If the LDs refuse to collaborate with either the Tories or Labour then their MPs will be simply irrelevant.
If we end up say:
Tory 305
Lab 245
SNP 50
LD 30
DUP 10
PC 3
Then the LDs could be kingmakers. Tory+LD = 335 or Lab+SNP+LD+PC = 328. If the LDs choose Tory then Johnson is PM and Corbyn probably goes. If the LDs choose Labour then Corbyn is PM and Johnson goes.
If the LDs refuse to choose a side and both Corbyn and Johnson refuse to resign then Johnson is PM. He would remain as Brown did unless or until someone else has a majority and Corbyn being so close to power wouldn't resign. Ironically that could trigger the only scenario where rather than both going, we could see neither of them go!0 -
My disabled client in Horsham has his already.Casino_Royale said:My local authority (East Hampshire) is sending out its postals tomorrow, including mine.
So it could be that 20% of votes have been cast already by this time next week.0 -
Con just gone 1.43.
I do hope the betting move today isn't based on the MRP - the MRP really doesn't matter.
Up to date polling is what matters now.
I thought MORI and ComRes were due today.0 -
Well, quite.rcs1000 said:....
(Coincidentally, I was quite horrified to discover the Jersey Royals I bought at the excessively expensive Erehwon were in fact not from Jersey.)
The EU protected origin regulations are one of the very few bits of bureaucracy which are an unmitigated, 100% Good Thing. All upside, and no downside. They've even had the side effect of dragging up quality in products which haven't yet got protection, as producers up their game in the hope of getting protection later on.0 -
Indeed but my point is that net it hasn't moved at all. Its bounced around but is back where it started net.midwinter said:
It's moved a fair bit in the last hour.Philip_Thompson said:
Exactly where it was Monday morning. Nothing this week has moved it - net. 😂JamesP said:Betfair now at 1.44 for a Conservative majority
0 -
In an ideal world I would like the Tories to become the opposition and see Johnson Raab Patel Rees-Mogg and Cummings gone.Big_G_NorthWales said:
In an ideal world I would like the lib dems to become the opposition and see Corbyn gone totallyFoxy said:
I largely agree, different swings in different regions. There is a political realignment going on.Big_G_NorthWales said:Scotland, the north and midlands, Wales, the south and London, the south east and south west all have the potential for very different swings
I have no idea how any poll or poll of polls can predict the actual result. Personally I think it is going to be close with a small majority for Boris
I would suggest the key is those remainers who despise Corbyn as much as I do but think voting labour gives them a path to a referendum and to ensure Corbyn is impotent to do anything. It is a dangerous path to tread as it could just give Corbyn power
Remainers can perfectly safely vote LD though, no need to vote Labour. Indeed that is what I shall be doing.0 -
Worth mentioning that it was around this time in 2017 that the polls really started turning - single digit leads started to become much more common and of course 2 weeks out we had a YouGov poll with the lead at 5% which I think really started the panic.
This weekends polls will be very interesting. If they show things staying fairly stable at an average of 10% or so I think that will be very encouraging for the Tories. If others start to move ICM-wards then it’s squeaky bum time.0 -
Yeah. Just wondered what was driving the recent change.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed but my point is that net it hasn't moved at all. Its bounced around but is back where it started net.midwinter said:
It's moved a fair bit in the last hour.Philip_Thompson said:
Exactly where it was Monday morning. Nothing this week has moved it - net. 😂JamesP said:Betfair now at 1.44 for a Conservative majority
0 -
Received ours today, in the post in the morning.Casino_Royale said:My local authority (East Hampshire) is sending out its postals tomorrow, including mine.
So it could be that 20% of votes have been cast already by this time next week.
The first time we will ever have voted for Boris!!!!1 -
Bearing all that in mind, could we have an admittedly unlikey scenario where neither party can form a government - and then call yet another election?Philip_Thompson said:
What you write isn't possible. The Lib Dems have no power to force out either parties leader let alone both.Flanner said:
No it doesn't. The LDs won't collaborate with any grouping led by Corbyn, and won't help the fat sexpest into office. Since the perv treats poliltiocal "allies" the way he treats his women, no other grouping (except the TBP, who are unlikely to get any seats at all) will work with him and there's no route to power for the Tories except by firing the groper.FrancisUrquhart said:
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.Jason said:Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
So, unless there's a hung parliament in which the LDs have been smashed, Dec 13 will start with the two major parties chucking out the self-indulgent oafs who've destroyed them and those remaining forming a civilised government of serious politicians.
If the LDs refuse to collaborate with either the Tories or Labour then their MPs will be simply irrelevant.
If we end up say:
Tory 305
Lab 245
SNP 50
LD 30
DUP 10
PC 3
Then the LDs could be kingmakers. Tory+LD = 335 or Lab+SNP+LD+PC = 328. If the LDs choose Tory then Johnson is PM and Corbyn probably goes. If the LDs choose Labour then Corbyn is PM and Johnson goes.
If the LDs refuse to choose a side and both Corbyn and Johnson refuse to resign then Johnson is PM. He would remain as Brown did unless or until someone else has a majority and Corbyn being so close to power wouldn't resign. Ironically that could trigger the only scenario where rather than both going, we could see neither of them go!0 -
Best bet at the moment is the Tories in the 40-44.99% band on Betfair, still available at evens (or thereabouts).JamesP said:Betfair now at 1.44 for a Conservative majority
Went in at 1.95 so price has tightened considerably since then, but that doesn't mean it's going to happen.
Also went in on LD at 5-9.99% at 23. It's now 6.6.
It gives better returns than Tory majority, and the Tory voting coalition is very stable.
I’m as confident as I can be about that one and I think it should be down at 1.4-1.5.0 -
Just trying to be kind !!!!!Jason said:
Yes I know Big G, I just thought it was obvious enough not to have to explain it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No - I can understand it. It is a defence mechanism against the result you fear mostJason said:
Francis, if I offered you a 10 point average Tory lead with just 2 weeks to go before the election, you would have snapped my hand off. I just don't understand your craven attitude. It's almost as though you secretly want Corbyn to win.FrancisUrquhart said:
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.Jason said:Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
Many will understand that0 -
I'm surprised how much variation there is. In SW Surrey we got ours 5 days ago.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Received ours today, in the post in the morning.Casino_Royale said:My local authority (East Hampshire) is sending out its postals tomorrow, including mine.
So it could be that 20% of votes have been cast already by this time next week.
The first time we will ever have voted for Boris!!!!0 -
There is always a government. If neither party can make up a majority then Johnson remains PM unless or until there's a No Confidence vote and if no alternative government can be found there'd be a general election 14 days later.Jason said:
Bearing all that in mind, could we have an admittedly unlikey scenario where neither party can form a government - and then call yet another election?Philip_Thompson said:
What you write isn't possible. The Lib Dems have no power to force out either parties leader let alone both.Flanner said:
No it doesn't. The LDs won't collaborate with any grouping led by Corbyn, and won't help the fat sexpest into office. Since the perv treats poliltiocal "allies" the way he treats his women, no other grouping (except the TBP, who are unlikely to get any seats at all) will work with him and there's no route to power for the Tories except by firing the groper.FrancisUrquhart said:
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.Jason said:Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
So, unless there's a hung parliament in which the LDs have been smashed, Dec 13 will start with the two major parties chucking out the self-indulgent oafs who've destroyed them and those remaining forming a civilised government of serious politicians.
If the LDs refuse to collaborate with either the Tories or Labour then their MPs will be simply irrelevant.
If we end up say:
Tory 305
Lab 245
SNP 50
LD 30
DUP 10
PC 3
Then the LDs could be kingmakers. Tory+LD = 335 or Lab+SNP+LD+PC = 328. If the LDs choose Tory then Johnson is PM and Corbyn probably goes. If the LDs choose Labour then Corbyn is PM and Johnson goes.
If the LDs refuse to choose a side and both Corbyn and Johnson refuse to resign then Johnson is PM. He would remain as Brown did unless or until someone else has a majority and Corbyn being so close to power wouldn't resign. Ironically that could trigger the only scenario where rather than both going, we could see neither of them go!
Seems unlikely but yes it is possible.0 -
They would need all 4 (Maine, Arizona, Colorado, NC) for control - not easy.Gabs3 said:
Colorado is almost certain to fall. The Dems have a more than decent chance in North Carolina too.alb1on said:
I can see Maine and Arizona falling (with Alabama maybe returning to the Republicans), but other changes are a stretch - which will make a change of control tough to achieve.TimT said:
I think there is a very real possibility of the Senate falling to the Democrats.noneoftheabove said:
The Senate is unlikely to break democrat so Pres Warren likely also means no trade deal as the senate will block whatever she wants. I think the probability of getting a US trade deal by 2025 is sub 10%, and if we get one, it will be minimalistic simply to allow Johnson and Trump to claim personal success rather than achieve any benefit for either of the nations they are supposed to represent.Gabs3 said:
Depends on the President. President Warren might use it to reduce US drug prices!noneoftheabove said:0 -
Wut? The last batch of surveys will have been done yesterday.MikeL said:I don't think the YouGov MRP matters too much for betting markets - it was done (on average at least) when Con were about 12% ahead and that is going to equate to approx Con 350 seats. We all already know that.
What matters much, much more is new, really up to date, polling.0 -
A
Con major down to 1.43 nowphiliph said:
I would.take.any profits now if you have them..I reckon it will show another hung parliament0 -
https://twitter.com/dralanwager/status/1199723865427120128?s=21
Not sure if this means 9 on top of current total or 9 in addition to where they already were?0
