politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The political divide between mums and dads, poor Ipsos MORI ra
Comments
-
Errr ^^^ is this what everyone is getting excited about? Data that's 4 weeks old?Mysticrose said:Could someone post a link please? Presumably we're not referring to the 30th October Best for Britain data?
I'm a little sceptical of any polls, despite the apparent success of MRP in 2017.
Shift to Labour in the last couple of days certainly won't be reflected then. Nor will the LibDem dip.0 -
CHB, your new moniker is Epson. Why? Because you're the biggest projector here.CorrectHorseBattery said:
This election is the most marginal I recall from recent memory. Between Tory seats held by a few hundred votes and Labour seats the same. It could literally go between massive Tory majority to the Tories standing still, to Labour gaining seats.GIN1138 said:
Well as most elections are won and lost in the marginals isn't this nearly always the case? I mean that's why they are marginals.CorrectHorseBattery said:Looks to be like a very shaky Tory majority based on very marginal seats that could really go either way. Tactical voting is needed here and for undecideds to back Labour in most cases
If Labour gain even a few percent it’s almost certainly going to be a Hung Parliament. And that’s before higher youth turnout + tactical voting, which if you look at Canterbury seems to be working.0 -
Yes, that struck me as well. The same may be true of tonight's YouGov MRP to some extent at least.Philip_Thompson said:If this B4B MRP is using weeks old data surely it will be overstating massively the Liberal Democrats?
Still it may be useful in identifying seats where the odds on Labour in particular are too long.0 -
These numbers show the LDs losing their leave voting seats (Eastbourne, North Norfolk, and struggling in Carshalton), but gaining in Remainia (Wimbledon, At Alban's, Richmond Park). They show them making next to no progress in Labour seats.StuartDickson said:
I think if the LDs get less than (say) 15 seats then she'll struggle. Or she would, if there were an obvious successor. Which there isn't really.0 -
Only the YouGov MRP. Ashcroft did one which was miles off :-)Mysticrose said:I'm a little sceptical of any polls, despite the apparent success of MRP in 2017.
0 -
No you're completely misreading it.Stark_Dawning said:And the Lib Dems oust Theresa in Maidenhead?
0 -
Depends if Chukka/Luciana get in. Apart from them, the LDs are fairly anonymous.rcs1000 said:
These numbers show the LDs losing their leave voting seats (Eastbourne, North Norfolk, and struggling in Carshalton), but gaining in Remainia (Wimbledon, At Alban's, Richmond Park). They show them making next to no progress in Labour seats.StuartDickson said:
I think if the LDs get less than (say) 15 seats then she'll struggle. Or she would, if there were an obvious successor. Which there isn't really.0 -
The LDs dropped 5 points in the initial week, (from 20 to 15) but have only seen their share drop very modestly from there. Sunil's weekly elbow even had then up slightly on Sunday.Philip_Thompson said:If this B4B MRP is using weeks old data surely it will be overstating massively the Liberal Democrats?
0 -
The only ones I have received, I delivered myself.Philip_Thompson said:I've not received a single election leaflet yet.
0 -
The YouGov is based on a single week of data.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, that struck me as well. The same may be true of tonight's YouGov MRP to some extent at least.Philip_Thompson said:If this B4B MRP is using weeks old data surely it will be overstating massively the Liberal Democrats?
0 -
Isn't that the irony? The worse she does, the fewer possible successors there'll be.rcs1000 said:
These numbers show the LDs losing their leave voting seats (Eastbourne, North Norfolk, and struggling in Carshalton), but gaining in Remainia (Wimbledon, At Alban's, Richmond Park). They show them making next to no progress in Labour seats.StuartDickson said:
I think if the LDs get less than (say) 15 seats then she'll struggle. Or she would, if there were an obvious successor. Which there isn't really.0 -
Ed Davey.rcs1000 said:
These numbers show the LDs losing their leave voting seats (Eastbourne, North Norfolk, and struggling in Carshalton), but gaining in Remainia (Wimbledon, At Alban's, Richmond Park). They show them making next to no progress in Labour seats.StuartDickson said:
I think if the LDs get less than (say) 15 seats then she'll struggle. Or she would, if there were an obvious successor. Which there isn't really.0 -
Knowing our luck the MRP will be the most inaccurate this time.Andrew said:
Only the YouGov MRP. Ashcroft did one which was miles off :-)Mysticrose said:I'm a little sceptical of any polls, despite the apparent success of MRP in 2017.
1 -
Ah, OK, thanks. Scrub my comment then.Alistair said:
The YouGov is based on a single week of data.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, that struck me as well. The same may be true of tonight's YouGov MRP to some extent at least.Philip_Thompson said:If this B4B MRP is using weeks old data surely it will be overstating massively the Liberal Democrats?
0 -
Still not particularly fresh then ...Alistair said:
The YouGov is based on a single week of data.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, that struck me as well. The same may be true of tonight's YouGov MRP to some extent at least.Philip_Thompson said:If this B4B MRP is using weeks old data surely it will be overstating massively the Liberal Democrats?
0 -
Yes, I'll shut up.Philip_Thompson said:
No you're completely misreading it.Stark_Dawning said:And the Lib Dems oust Theresa in Maidenhead?
0 -
No its todays B4B MRP. But yes it uses data that is already old, but not that old.Mysticrose said:
Errr ^^^ is this what everyone is getting excited about? Data that's 4 weeks old?Mysticrose said:Could someone post a link please? Presumably we're not referring to the 30th October Best for Britain data?
I'm a little sceptical of any polls, despite the apparent success of MRP in 2017.
Shift to Labour in the last couple of days certainly won't be reflected then. Nor will the LibDem dip.0 -
They've updated for November.Mysticrose said:
Errr ^^^ is this what everyone is getting excited about? Data that's 4 weeks old?Mysticrose said:Could someone post a link please? Presumably we're not referring to the 30th October Best for Britain data?
I'm a little sceptical of any polls, despite the apparent success of MRP in 2017.
Shift to Labour in the last couple of days certainly won't be reflected then. Nor will the LibDem dip.0 -
You were at verminous. Now it's "utterly verminous" and that still (!) doesn't do it justice. Gosh.speybay said:Yes , it is. Utterly verminous doesn't do it justice, actually. In the context of the anti-semitism debate it is utterly so.
Address his comments if you have a beef with them. Play the ball not the man.
I detect a softhead troll. Suggest you prove me wrong by apologizing profusely and exiting.0 -
Don't forget last time round Lord Ashcroft's MRP model was actively misleading.0
-
Tory candidate for Glasgow Central suspended, due to comments about Muslims.
I need a spreadsheet of binned candidates, it seems to be higher than in previous elections.0 -
It's the combination of West Bromwich East, Coventry South and Stoke-on-Trent Central that looks oddest to me.Richard_Nabavi said:
Which ones struck you as particularly unconvincing?AlastairMeeks said:I can't say this particular MRP model looks all that compelling to me, given the individual results it is spewing out.
The Lib Dem findings, conversely, look entirely possible to me.0 -
Interesting to see the LDs static in West country seats like Thornbury and Yeovil, and going backwards in North Devon and St Ives.El_Capitano said:Best for Britain MRP results are at https://gallery.mailchimp.com/a706d4e03dc82629db3f7acf9/files/ae6c2fb1-48aa-4c6f-8a3d-b5f8fd958956/Best_for_Britain_Recommendation_Seats.pdf .
Tories and Lab exactly tied in Sunderland Central.0 -
So that's one for holocaust denial in Aberdeen, and now one for islamophobia. What a lovely bunch the SCons are.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Tory candidate for Glasgow Central suspended, due to comments about Muslims.
I need a spreadsheet of binned candidates, it seems to be higher than in previous elections.0 -
Brave Sir Boris is absolutely terrified of any kind of detaield scrutiny. It's pathetic.
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/11996997274340311131 -
7000 people a day for 7 days is pretty fucking fresh. What are you wanting? Mind reading?Mysticrose said:
Still not particularly fresh then ...Alistair said:
The YouGov is based on a single week of data.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, that struck me as well. The same may be true of tonight's YouGov MRP to some extent at least.Philip_Thompson said:If this B4B MRP is using weeks old data surely it will be overstating massively the Liberal Democrats?
0 -
You have indeed. And I took heed. I'm on at a big price.wooliedyed said:I've been touting it as outer edge of expectations for 2 months!
You do have your uses
0 -
The Tories are further behind in Coventry South than in Coventry North East - I know the seats well enough, and that it is ridiculousAlastairMeeks said:
It's the combination of West Bromwich East, Coventry South and Stoke-on-Trent Central that looks oddest to me.Richard_Nabavi said:
Which ones struck you as particularly unconvincing?AlastairMeeks said:I can't say this particular MRP model looks all that compelling to me, given the individual results it is spewing out.
The Lib Dem findings, conversely, look entirely possible to me.0 -
Are you fucking shitting me?SouthamObserver said:Brave Sir Boris is absolutely terrified of any kind of detaield scrutiny. It's pathetic.
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1199699727434031113
No. Fucking. Way.0 -
Lord knows I'm not Boris Johnson's biggest fan, but should he avoid being interviewed by Andrew Neil I'd regard that as strategically a very intelligent decision. There's nothing to gain from it for him.1
-
As long as it's properly weighted mind-reading...Alistair said:
7000 people a day for 7 days is pretty fucking fresh. What are you wanting? Mind reading?Mysticrose said:
Still not particularly fresh then ...Alistair said:
The YouGov is based on a single week of data.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, that struck me as well. The same may be true of tonight's YouGov MRP to some extent at least.Philip_Thompson said:If this B4B MRP is using weeks old data surely it will be overstating massively the Liberal Democrats?
0 -
Empty fucking chair the twat. An hour of Neil reading out every allegation against him.3
-
Also it barely has Swinson holding on 31.41% to 31%1
-
“quite politely to MY saying “no thanks..”Philip_Thompson said:I've not received a single election leaflet yet.
Had 2 ladies knock on the door dressed all in red and thought it might be canvassers . . . but no it was Jehovah's Witnesses. Responded quite politely to me saying "no thanks I'm an atheist" rather than trying to continue the conversation as I've had before.
One case where correct grammar is useful. Your original statement is unclear. It could be the Jehovah’s Witness declaring atheism.3 -
Swinson is entirely reliant on SCon tactical voters, but she has bent over backwards to piss off exactly those people.148grss said:Swinson's seat is uncomfortably close.
https://tacticalvote.getvoting.org/East-Dunbartonshire/
Can imagine some SLab voting SNP to knife LDs? Who do they hate more?0 -
Bearsden Tories are not voting for Brexit.StuartDickson said:
Swinson is entirely reliant on SCon tactical voters, but she has bent over backwards to piss off exactly those people.148grss said:Swinson's seat is uncomfortably close.
https://tacticalvote.getvoting.org/East-Dunbartonshire/
Can imagine some SLab voting SNP to knife LDs? Who do they hate more?0 -
Luciana's only claim to fame is being chased out of Liverpool by a mob of antisemitic scouse trots who said she was a red tory. Joining the LibDems really showed them up! Chuka's had more parties this year than most voters will have for Christmas though he does have shorter hair than Jo Swinson which is how we judge leaders nowadays.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Depends if Chukka/Luciana get in. Apart from them, the LDs are fairly anonymous.rcs1000 said:
These numbers show the LDs losing their leave voting seats (Eastbourne, North Norfolk, and struggling in Carshalton), but gaining in Remainia (Wimbledon, At Alban's, Richmond Park). They show them making next to no progress in Labour seats.StuartDickson said:
I think if the LDs get less than (say) 15 seats then she'll struggle. Or she would, if there were an obvious successor. Which there isn't really.1 -
Yep - Johnson is a liar and he knows that Neil would expose his lies, as well as his inability to master any kind of brief. The surprise is that Corbyn agreed without knowing that Johnson was also tied down.AlastairMeeks said:Lord knows I'm not Boris Johnson's biggest fan, but should he avoid being interviewed by Andrew Neil I'd regard that as strategically a very intelligent decision. There's nothing to gain from it for him.
0 -
-
ZAP!!!!!Byronic said:
“quite politely to MY saying “no thanks..”Philip_Thompson said:I've not received a single election leaflet yet.
Had 2 ladies knock on the door dressed all in red and thought it might be canvassers . . . but no it was Jehovah's Witnesses. Responded quite politely to me saying "no thanks I'm an atheist" rather than trying to continue the conversation as I've had before.
One case where correct grammar is useful. Your original statement is unclear. It could be the Jehovah’s Witness declaring atheism.0 -
Looking through all the seat projections I think the model is unlikley to be correct on way too many.0
-
Agreed. He needs a very good reason to do it tho. Remember when T May ducked the debates, because she was ‘getting on with running the country’ - during an election SHE called?!?!AlastairMeeks said:Lord knows I'm not Boris Johnson's biggest fan, but should he avoid being interviewed by Andrew Neil I'd regard that as strategically a very intelligent decision. There's nothing to gain from it for him.
Terrible optics. How does Boris avoid that?0 -
Is an "absolute cast iron guarantee" stronger or weaker than saying "I'd rather be dead in a ditch"?
Doesn't Johnson now need to say something like "I'd rather be tortured to death"?1 -
Trump displaying his usual loyalty...
https://twitter.com/TheBeatWithAri/status/11994686346215669760 -
Particularly when you consider who the Coventry South Labour candidate is. Isn’t Cov South and places like Earsldon a bit more middle class and possibly a bit more remain than North East?Pulpstar said:
The Tories are further behind in Coventry South than in Coventry North East - I know the seats well enough, and that it is ridiculousAlastairMeeks said:
It's the combination of West Bromwich East, Coventry South and Stoke-on-Trent Central that looks oddest to me.Richard_Nabavi said:
Which ones struck you as particularly unconvincing?AlastairMeeks said:I can't say this particular MRP model looks all that compelling to me, given the individual results it is spewing out.
The Lib Dem findings, conversely, look entirely possible to me.0 -
All it takes is some SLab going SNP and some SCons not voting LD and the LDs have another leadership contest to run...Alistair said:
Bearsden Tories are not voting for Brexit.StuartDickson said:
Swinson is entirely reliant on SCon tactical voters, but she has bent over backwards to piss off exactly those people.148grss said:Swinson's seat is uncomfortably close.
https://tacticalvote.getvoting.org/East-Dunbartonshire/
Can imagine some SLab voting SNP to knife LDs? Who do they hate more?0 -
In this city I have seen maybe 3-4 labour boards and none for any other parties. Never seen so few boardsVerulamius said:Poster update from St Albans.
I have finally spotted a Conservative poster! From a distance it looked like an estate agent board!
More Lib Dem poster sites than normal and fewer Labour ones.
0 -
https://twitter.com/colinrtalbot/status/1199712580777971712?s=20AlastairMeeks said:Lord knows I'm not Boris Johnson's biggest fan, but should he avoid being interviewed by Andrew Neil I'd regard that as strategically a very intelligent decision. There's nothing to gain from it for him.
0 -
Just say he's come down with a spot of orf:Byronic said:
Agreed. He needs a very good reason to do it tho. Remember when T May ducked the debates, because she was ‘getting on with running the country’ - during an election SHE called?!?!AlastairMeeks said:Lord knows I'm not Boris Johnson's biggest fan, but should he avoid being interviewed by Andrew Neil I'd regard that as strategically a very intelligent decision. There's nothing to gain from it for him.
Terrible optics. How does Boris avoid that?
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/orf/
No one will believe him but many might see the funny side.0 -
-
And if Jezza becomes PM, the likes of Bastani are going to be bunged public money to spread their propaganda.CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/colinrtalbot/status/1199712580777971712?s=20AlastairMeeks said:Lord knows I'm not Boris Johnson's biggest fan, but should he avoid being interviewed by Andrew Neil I'd regard that as strategically a very intelligent decision. There's nothing to gain from it for him.
0 -
I don't think that should be a big surprise "Bollocks to Brexit" was never going to go down well in very Leave areas.GarethoftheVale2 said:
Interesting to see the LDs static in West country seats like Thornbury and Yeovil, and going backwards in North Devon and St Ives.El_Capitano said:Best for Britain MRP results are at https://gallery.mailchimp.com/a706d4e03dc82629db3f7acf9/files/ae6c2fb1-48aa-4c6f-8a3d-b5f8fd958956/Best_for_Britain_Recommendation_Seats.pdf .
Tories and Lab exactly tied in Sunderland Central.0 -
Egregious, though, from the viewpoint of balanced BBC election coverage. And, yes, very stupid of Corbyn to do it if Johnson ends up wimping out. The Neil grilling is all about damage limitation. There is no upside. It has to be both or neither.SouthamObserver said:Yep - Johnson is a liar and he knows that Neil would expose his lies, as well as his inability to master any kind of brief. The surprise is that Corbyn agreed without knowing that Johnson was also tied down.
And speaking of the Beeb, Laura K's twitter handle is often reading like an arm of CCHQ. Piss poor.0 -
If I'm reading it correctly, that model has the Tories winning Ynys Mon with 33% of the vote.
Ladbrokes offering 5/1 on cons there.
That could be good value (but not for me, as they won't take my bets!)0 -
Hear there is a really good poll coming out on December 12th after 10pm. Likely to be very accurate too.4
-
I'm also interested by the fact that B4B are saying vote LD in an LD/SNP marginal, and then say this in their "Scotland and NI" section:148grss said:
All it takes is some SLab going SNP and some SCons not voting LD and the LDs have another leadership contest to run...Alistair said:
Bearsden Tories are not voting for Brexit.StuartDickson said:
Swinson is entirely reliant on SCon tactical voters, but she has bent over backwards to piss off exactly those people.148grss said:Swinson's seat is uncomfortably close.
https://tacticalvote.getvoting.org/East-Dunbartonshire/
Can imagine some SLab voting SNP to knife LDs? Who do they hate more?
"We have made specific recommendations in some Scottish constituencies where it is possible the Conservatives could win. It is vital we vote for candidates who can stop the Tories. However, in other constituencies we have avoided giving specific advice as it is clear that pro-Europeans are likely to win regardless and we do not believe it would be helpful or desirable for us to attempt to choose between parties who are our allies in the fight against Brexit."0 -
If I were him I'd agree to it but not let the BBC announce it until Friday. It's amusing watching Bastani and friends going wild over the injustice of it.Byronic said:
Agreed. He needs a very good reason to do it tho. Remember when T May ducked the debates, because she was ‘getting on with running the country’ - during an election SHE called?!?!AlastairMeeks said:Lord knows I'm not Boris Johnson's biggest fan, but should he avoid being interviewed by Andrew Neil I'd regard that as strategically a very intelligent decision. There's nothing to gain from it for him.
Terrible optics. How does Boris avoid that?0 -
That's appalling if Rudy went rogue and did it all off his own bat. Porridge?Nigelb said:Trump displaying his usual loyalty...
https://twitter.com/TheBeatWithAri/status/11994686346215669760 -
Should there not have been guarantees between the BBC and all major party leaders before the interviews went ahead?0
-
Last time they did a rolling version of this for 8 days. The percentages for the three main parties never changed, except for one day when the Tory share was one point different.Alistair said:
7000 people a day for 7 days is pretty fucking fresh. What are you wanting? Mind reading?Mysticrose said:
Still not particularly fresh then ...Alistair said:
The YouGov is based on a single week of data.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, that struck me as well. The same may be true of tonight's YouGov MRP to some extent at least.Philip_Thompson said:If this B4B MRP is using weeks old data surely it will be overstating massively the Liberal Democrats?
That's quite interesting in itself, given that there was movement in other polls during that period.0 -
Don't be silly, of course he didn't.kinabalu said:
That's appalling if Rudy went rogue and did it all off his own bat. Porridge?Nigelb said:Trump displaying his usual loyalty...
https://twitter.com/TheBeatWithAri/status/1199468634621566976
Porridge is a possibility, but I suspect he's more likely to squeal if Trump really has abandoned him.
0 -
I'm enjoying Feisty Kinabalu. It's like a fresh twist on an old classic.kinabalu said:
You were at verminous. Now it's "utterly verminous" and that still (!) doesn't do it justice. Gosh.speybay said:Yes , it is. Utterly verminous doesn't do it justice, actually. In the context of the anti-semitism debate it is utterly so.
Address his comments if you have a beef with them. Play the ball not the man.
I detect a softhead troll. Suggest you prove me wrong by apologizing profusely and exiting.0 -
That's rather more of a claim to fame than most LibDem MPs.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Luciana's only claim to fame is being chased out of Liverpool by a mob of antisemitic scouse trots who said she was a red tory. Joining the LibDems really showed them up! Chuka's had more parties this year than most voters will have for Christmas though he does have shorter hair than Jo Swinson which is how we judge leaders nowadays.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Depends if Chukka/Luciana get in. Apart from them, the LDs are fairly anonymous.rcs1000 said:
These numbers show the LDs losing their leave voting seats (Eastbourne, North Norfolk, and struggling in Carshalton), but gaining in Remainia (Wimbledon, At Alban's, Richmond Park). They show them making next to no progress in Labour seats.StuartDickson said:
I think if the LDs get less than (say) 15 seats then she'll struggle. Or she would, if there were an obvious successor. Which there isn't really.
The old LDs had a bunch of serious people. Huhne, corrupt though he was, was serious. Clegg was serious. Charles Kennedy was serious. Paddy Ashdown was serious. That chap who used to be the MP for Yeovil was serious.
Who is serious in the current line-up? Not Wera Hobhouse, not Elizabeth Jardine, not Jo Swinson, not that funny lady from OxWAb. Now, a fair number of the MPs are young and might mature well. But there isn't really an embarassment of riches. The LDs have to hope that someone is elected this time around who has both authority, organisational skills and charisma. (Sorry guys, I'm busy.)1 -
Boris has to face Neil
All he needs to say is that he was with Carrie in Pizza Hut having a one nation conservative pizza!
If he doesn't turn up then it CORBYNISTA new favourites for the election!1 -
Dropping 10pc in Ceredigion doesnt feel right either. I think they gain share if anything.Alistair said:
Walking while on phone but the Scotland Lib Dem figures look weirs/wrong to me.148grss said:Swinson's seat is uncomfortably close.
https://tacticalvote.getvoting.org/East-Dunbartonshire/
Can imagine some SLab voting SNP to knife LDs? Who do they hate more?
Predicting a fall in the vote for the LIB Dems in Edinburgh West is mental.0 -
-
Given the Tories and Labour have given the BBC the middle finger over the "leaders" debate, they are already going to be pissed. If Boris doesn't do Neil, I expect some serious incoming from them, as they really don't like it when people don't respect them.0
-
I have Cons at 5/1 in Ynys Mon. I have it filed away away in the "WTF was I thinking?" drawer.llef said:If I'm reading it correctly, that model has the Tories winning Ynys Mon with 33% of the vote.
Ladbrokes offering 5/1 on cons there.
That could be good value (but not for me, as they won't take my bets!)
0 -
That was not the MRP. The MRP was an attempt to model at the constituency level, and was ridiculued on here for predicting (for example) that:Chris said:
Last time they did a rolling version of this for 8 days. The percentages for the three main parties never changed, except for one day when the Tory share was one point different.Alistair said:
7000 people a day for 7 days is pretty fucking fresh. What are you wanting? Mind reading?Mysticrose said:
Still not particularly fresh then ...Alistair said:
The YouGov is based on a single week of data.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, that struck me as well. The same may be true of tonight's YouGov MRP to some extent at least.Philip_Thompson said:If this B4B MRP is using weeks old data surely it will be overstating massively the Liberal Democrats?
That's quite interesting in itself, given that there was movement in other polls during that period.
- The LDs would run the Conservatives close in St Ives (which I laughed at)
- That Labour would win Canterbury (that everybodt laughed at)0 -
Chuka would be an excellent leader. Despite his flaws he is articulate, telegenic, persuasive. He’d also be the first BAME major party leader. A coup for the LDs.rcs1000 said:
That's rather more of a claim to fame than most LibDem MPs.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Luciana's only claim to fame is being chased out of Liverpool by a mob of antisemitic scouse trots who said she was a red tory. Joining the LibDems really showed them up! Chuka's had more parties this year than most voters will have for Christmas though he does have shorter hair than Jo Swinson which is how we judge leaders nowadays.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Depends if Chukka/Luciana get in. Apart from them, the LDs are fairly anonymous.rcs1000 said:
These numbers show the LDs losing their leave voting seats (Eastbourne, North Norfolk, and struggling in Carshalton), but gaining in Remainia (Wimbledon, At Alban's, Richmond Park). They show them making next to no progress in Labour seats.StuartDickson said:
I think if the LDs get less than (say) 15 seats then she'll struggle. Or she would, if there were an obvious successor. Which there isn't really.
The old LDs had a bunch of serious people. Huhne, corrupt though he was, was serious. Clegg was serious. Charles Kennedy was serious. Paddy Ashdown was serious. That chap who used to be the MP for Yeovil was serious.
Who is serious in the current line-up? Not Wera Hobhouse, not Elizabeth Jardine, not Jo Swinson, not that funny lady from OxWAb. Now, a fair number of the MPs are young and might mature well. But there isn't really an embarassment of riches. The LDs have to hope that someone is elected this time around who has both authority, organisational skills and charisma. (Sorry guys, I'm busy.)
Sadly for them he is v unlikely to win.0 -
The figures I referred to were the percentages projected by the YouGov MRP.rcs1000 said:
That was not the MRP.Chris said:
Last time they did a rolling version of this for 8 days. The percentages for the three main parties never changed, except for one day when the Tory share was one point different.Alistair said:
7000 people a day for 7 days is pretty fucking fresh. What are you wanting? Mind reading?Mysticrose said:
Still not particularly fresh then ...Alistair said:
The YouGov is based on a single week of data.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, that struck me as well. The same may be true of tonight's YouGov MRP to some extent at least.Philip_Thompson said:If this B4B MRP is using weeks old data surely it will be overstating massively the Liberal Democrats?
That's quite interesting in itself, given that there was movement in other polls during that period.0 -
This I think?Chris said:
The figures I referred to were the percentages projected by the YouGov MRP.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election#YouGov_model
0 -
Ah, I forgot about Ashcroft's. (In fact I still forget about Ashcroft's. What did it say?)Pulpstar said:0 -
Nigelb said:
Don't be silly, of course he didn't.
Porridge is a possibility, but I suspect he's more likely to squeal if Trump really has abandoned him. I was joking.
Yes, that's how you get the biggest crooks, isn't it. Key lieutenant turns stoolie. Here's hoping. Both for the world and for my wallet. I'm laying the Donald for WH2020 quite heavily now.
You don't give him a prayer, do you?0 -
Yes, or this for WikiSceptics:Andrew said:
This I think?Chris said:
The figures I referred to were the percentages projected by the YouGov MRP.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election#YouGov_model
https://web.archive.org/web/20190116233603/https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/0 -
Annoying that Broxtowe is not one of he seats they have on their list.El_Capitano said:Best for Britain MRP results are at https://gallery.mailchimp.com/a706d4e03dc82629db3f7acf9/files/ae6c2fb1-48aa-4c6f-8a3d-b5f8fd958956/Best_for_Britain_Recommendation_Seats.pdf .
0 -
Then I'm wrongChris said:
The figures I referred to were the percentages projected by the YouGov MRP.rcs1000 said:
That was not the MRP.Chris said:
Last time they did a rolling version of this for 8 days. The percentages for the three main parties never changed, except for one day when the Tory share was one point different.Alistair said:
7000 people a day for 7 days is pretty fucking fresh. What are you wanting? Mind reading?Mysticrose said:
Still not particularly fresh then ...Alistair said:
The YouGov is based on a single week of data.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, that struck me as well. The same may be true of tonight's YouGov MRP to some extent at least.Philip_Thompson said:If this B4B MRP is using weeks old data surely it will be overstating massively the Liberal Democrats?
That's quite interesting in itself, given that there was movement in other polls during that period. 0 -
-
And actually Wikipedia shows only the last 8 days' results. The YouGov page shows three weeks' results. Both the projected percentages and the projected seat numbers were remarkably stable over the final 12 days.Chris said:
Yes, or this for WikiSceptics:Andrew said:
This I think?Chris said:
The figures I referred to were the percentages projected by the YouGov MRP.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election#YouGov_model
https://web.archive.org/web/20190116233603/https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/0 -
The B4B has ew
Rob Burley will be delighted.FrancisUrquhart said:Given the Tories and Labour have given the BBC the middle finger over the "leaders" debate, they are already going to be pissed. If Boris doesn't do Neil, I expect some serious incoming from them, as they really don't like it when people don't respect them.
And I don't mean that sarcastically. He's got all the other leaders to do the interview on the understanding they were all doing one but put Bojo last so he could duck out.
Well played Rob.0 -
Definitely a contraction of the lead in the last week though! Tories down 15 seats from some unknown number to that number-15.Andrew said:0 -
0
-
0
-
Deleted-1
-
Thanks - that's an interesting site.Pulpstar said:
It predicts that Plaid will hold Ceredigion with under 25% of the vote !
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Ceredigion0 -
Surely time for a "Not Like" button on here.CarlottaVance said:Run on mind bleach.....
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1199718185865535490?s=200 -
-
Nothing has changed !RobD said:But CON up 9 since the start:
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1199719300543795200
Anecdotal - Newest colleague of mine would quite like to see Corbyn win. Hasn't bothered to register to vote.0 -
Easy there!Chris said:
0 -
