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Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

It's that time of the campaign again ! PB Tory crap yourself O'clock.

I will be Group Captain Shitmypants for the next 16 days now.

And 7 hours.

And 10 minute.

And then maybe all night long after that.

I am already having nightmares of the bongs going and Huw Edwards says the exit poll says Corbyn predicted largest party....

Brom said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Don’t write Labour off yet
Ever since the campaign began, public support for Jeremy Corbyn’s party has been rising
https://unherd.com/2019/11/dont-write-labour-off-yet/

No one is writing off Labour. In fact in the past 24 hours a few people have been writing off a Tory majority. It will be close.

I'd say 43/38 would be my prediction.

Which way?! ;-)

Anecdotal - Anyone else noted a shift recently with their left wing friends from "Pro EU" to omfg the Tories are awful posts ?

SandyRentool said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

SandyRentool said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TrèsDifficile said:

TOPPING said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Parsnips are disgusting and who is Yougov surveying who'd know an Eton mess from a smashed-up pavlova?

Parsnips should be thoroughly parboiled then roasted until they are only just recognisable as parsnips and then they are one of god's most perfect creations.

The best way to have parsnips is grated in parsnip and onion bhajis. I've made them for about 30 different people, and they've all said they were the best bhajis they've ever had.

Point of (anecdotal) order: My mum always reminds me that "bhaji" is a curry. The fried things are called "bhajia(s)".

Pakora

That's another word for them, yes.

No, that's the right word for them!

Does it not depend where in India you are? I'm sure everywhere I've been in Maharashtra they've been called bhajis

KentRising said:

Brom said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Don’t write Labour off yet
Ever since the campaign began, public support for Jeremy Corbyn’s party has been rising
https://unherd.com/2019/11/dont-write-labour-off-yet/

No one is writing off Labour. In fact in the past 24 hours a few people have been writing off a Tory majority. It will be close.

I'd say 43/38 would be my prediction.

Which way?! ;-)

It's proper not just change underwear but throw out the sofa time if it's Labour 43 Tories 38 lol.

Thanks Aaron
You make a great point about towns, and students never coming back. I've seen Lisa Nandy working this issue as well - it should be a cross-party thing. Since your town is "Loyal and Ancient" and Wigan is "Ancient and Loyal" you already would have something in common..

Pulpstar said:

KentRising said:

Brom said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Don’t write Labour off yet
Ever since the campaign began, public support for Jeremy Corbyn’s party has been rising
https://unherd.com/2019/11/dont-write-labour-off-yet/

No one is writing off Labour. In fact in the past 24 hours a few people have been writing off a Tory majority. It will be close.

I'd say 43/38 would be my prediction.

Which way?! ;-)

It's proper not just change underwear but throw out the sofa time if it's Labour 43 Tories 38 lol.

Is that bad? I'd accept that, should be a small majority!

FrancisUrquhart said:

Brom said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Surge is on....starts packing bags....

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1199328545274761217?s=20

This was nearly 24 hours ago no?

Well I have been away and Britain elects only just twitted it, so I presumed it was new.

We had our meltdown yesterday.

TrèsDifficile said:

SandyRentool said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

SandyRentool said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TrèsDifficile said:

TOPPING said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Parsnips are disgusting and who is Yougov surveying who'd know an Eton mess from a smashed-up pavlova?

Parsnips should be thoroughly parboiled then roasted until they are only just recognisable as parsnips and then they are one of god's most perfect creations.

The best way to have parsnips is grated in parsnip and onion bhajis. I've made them for about 30 different people, and they've all said they were the best bhajis they've ever had.

Point of (anecdotal) order: My mum always reminds me that "bhaji" is a curry. The fried things are called "bhajia(s)".

Pakora

That's another word for them, yes.

No, that's the right word for them!

Does it not depend where in India you are? I'm sure everywhere I've been in Maharashtra they've been called bhajis

I think you are right there - Pakora is what my Punjabi other half and in-laws say, so I'm not going to argue with that.

And when my mother-in-law makes them, they are excellent!

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Cyclefree said:

Indeed - imagine what such a sum could do for social care. But none of these arguments are being made.
The best to my mind is that Labour are favouring a few women over the majority of working women, men and the young. “Labour are for the noisy few not the many.” Why aren’t Tory campaigners using that line, for instance?

Yes, you are absolutely right. Boris seems to be making exactly the same error Theresa May made, of not laying into the inherent nonsense of Corbyn's positions.
At least, that is how it appears. Perhaps there's some more subtle targeted campaigning going on under the surface (as the Tories did very well in 2015). If so, I'm not aware of it.

Boris’s mistake is different but it has the same effect.

His is laziness, whereas hers was fear.

Either way, the result is they don’t take the fight to the enemy.

His laziness is most manifest in his lack of preparation. He simply cannot be arsed to do his homework, which is why he falls apart so quickly under questioning. Rather than prepare he prefers to dodge interviews and only do photoshoots with the elderly, primary school pupils or animals.

He seemed pretty prepared for the head to head with Corbyn.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

It's that time of the campaign again ! PB Tory crap yourself O'clock.

I will be Group Captain Shitmypants for the next 16 days now.

And 7 hours.

And 10 minute.

And then maybe all night long after that.

CR, please don't start shitting yourself before Sunday's ELBOW

Too late.

The 'Labour surge' of yesterday was huge fun - various posters only just short of ordering taxis to Heathrow terminal 2 - but the spreads have barely moved. Con majority of about 50 is the expectation, which has not changed much for several days. My own hunch is for a bigger win but I think the 50 is now about fair value, i.e. if I were starting with a clean sheet, bettingwise, it would stay that way, no buy and no sell at these levels.

PaulM said:

Thanks Aaron
You make a great point about towns, and students never coming back. I've seen Lisa Nandy working this issue as well - it should be a cross-party thing. Since your town is "Loyal and Ancient" and Wigan is "Ancient and Loyal" you already would have something in common..

Up to a point. The Potteries do have 2 Universities, indeed a good friend of mine was a student at Keele and I had some good weekends there. She later went on to be a Lecturer at the Poly.

Smaller towns clearly are being squashed between the internet and "destination" shopping. The run down centres are not being helped by a decade of local council cuts. It is hard to see how Brexit induced further stress is going to help.

nova said:

Even YouGov seemed nervous about it at the time, and if I remember rightly promoted their regular polling (which was nowhere near as close to the final result) over this.

That's right. They only bigged it up after the event. IIRC Survation were consistently the best pollster on vote share. YouGov were out quite badly, along with most of the others.

KentRising said:

Foxy said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Meeks, roast parsnips are delicious. I also enjoy eccles cakes.

Parsnips are wonderful, but only after the frost gets going. The frost is needed to break down the starch. Parboil to fluff them up then roast. Rotate regularly when roasting, and if roasting potatoes too then put the parsnips in a different dish as they cook more quickly.

Sprouts are also better having been frost-nipped.

My favourite Christmas dinner treat is chestnut stuffing. Home-made by mum. Sensational scenes.

Pardon my ignorance but what does frost-nipped mean?

I hate sprouts. Only time I've ever enjoyed them is a dish my mother in law made one year. A mix of diced up sprouts and bacon roasted together.

kinabalu said:

The 'Labour surge' of yesterday was huge fun - various posters only just short of ordering taxis to Heathrow terminal 2 - but the spreads have barely moved. Con majority of about 50 is the expectation, which has not changed much for several days. My own hunch is for a bigger win but I think the 50 is now about fair value, i.e. if I were starting with a clean sheet, bettingwise, it would stay that way, no buy and no sell at these levels.

Worth remembering that the markets took a long time to respond to the shift in the polls in 2017. I remember feeling quite grateful for this fact around 21/22 May.

Stark_Dawning said:

Alistair said:

A blast from the past

https://twitter.com/ABLPoli/status/1198948742294048768

Astonishing to see that YouGov poll described as 'controversial'.

There are a number of 'polling/election guru' twitter histories that have aged very, very badly after the first release of the YouGov MRP in 2017

Foxy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Cyclefree said:

Indeed - imagine what such a sum could do for social care. But none of these arguments are being made.
The best to my mind is that Labour are favouring a few women over the majority of working women, men and the young. “Labour are for the noisy few not the many.” Why aren’t Tory campaigners using that line, for instance?

Yes, you are absolutely right. Boris seems to be making exactly the same error Theresa May made, of not laying into the inherent nonsense of Corbyn's positions.
At least, that is how it appears. Perhaps there's some more subtle targeted campaigning going on under the surface (as the Tories did very well in 2015). If so, I'm not aware of it.

Boris’s mistake is different but it has the same effect.

His is laziness, whereas hers was fear.

Either way, the result is they don’t take the fight to the enemy.

His laziness is most manifest in his lack of preparation. He simply cannot be arsed to do his homework, which is why he falls apart so quickly under questioning. Rather than prepare he prefers to dodge interviews and only do photoshoots with the elderly, primary school pupils or animals.

He seemed pretty prepared for the head to head with Corbyn.

Repeating the same motto endlessly is not evidence of preparation.

But having a prepared reply for any subject you can then switch to your motto from is.

Philip_Thompson said:

KentRising said:

Foxy said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Meeks, roast parsnips are delicious. I also enjoy eccles cakes.

Parsnips are wonderful, but only after the frost gets going. The frost is needed to break down the starch. Parboil to fluff them up then roast. Rotate regularly when roasting, and if roasting potatoes too then put the parsnips in a different dish as they cook more quickly.

Sprouts are also better having been frost-nipped.

My favourite Christmas dinner treat is chestnut stuffing. Home-made by mum. Sensational scenes.

Pardon my ignorance but what does frost-nipped mean?

I hate sprouts. Only time I've ever enjoyed them is a dish my mother in law made one year. A mix of diced up sprouts and bacon roasted together.

Boil sprouts wrap them in sausage meat and deep fry.

Philip_Thompson said:

KentRising said:

Foxy said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Meeks, roast parsnips are delicious. I also enjoy eccles cakes.

Parsnips are wonderful, but only after the frost gets going. The frost is needed to break down the starch. Parboil to fluff them up then roast. Rotate regularly when roasting, and if roasting potatoes too then put the parsnips in a different dish as they cook more quickly.

Sprouts are also better having been frost-nipped.

My favourite Christmas dinner treat is chestnut stuffing. Home-made by mum. Sensational scenes.

Pardon my ignorance but what does frost-nipped mean?

I hate sprouts. Only time I've ever enjoyed them is a dish my mother in law made one year. A mix of diced up sprouts and bacon roasted together.

Harvest sprouts only after the frost has visited them - improves texture and flavour.

Kantar gave a range in this mornings poll that the true position is between 4.5 and 15.5% lead

Nigelb said:

I adore sprouts.

Do we get to call them 'Freedom Sprouts' once we've Brexited?

Nigelb said:

I adore sprouts.

The devil’s vegetable. No good will come of eating them.

Brussels sprouts are excellent provided they are very fresh and are undercooked.
If you're having to buy them from a shop, then it's too late. You have to grow your own.

SandyRentool said:

Nigelb said:

I adore sprouts.

Do we get to call them 'Freedom Sprouts' once we've Brexited?

"Farage sprouts" I would have thought.

Sprouts are best when fried.

Pulpstar said:

Anecdotal - Anyone else noted a shift recently with their left wing friends from "Pro EU" to omfg the Tories are awful posts ?

I think people have finally switched onto this election this week.

Three donkeys (the usual ones) have put up Labour boards on the main road leading into my town.

I’ve seen just one Tory poster in my village.

Corbyn doesn’t have the crowds and fresh passion behind him of GE2017 but that might not matter as the visceral ‘stop the Tories’ sentiment is an extremely powerful one.

Nigelb said:

I adore sprouts.

No opinion is too wild and controversial to be aired on here. Real strength of the place.

Can Jo Swinson stop being so shit, please?

A thought.

Somewhere in a safeish Labour seat a new young MP is about to be elected who will lead them to two terms of government in a decade or so's time.

Any suggestions?

Chris said:

PeterC said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Have we stablished what is driving the movement in these polls? Is it firming up of don’t knows towards Labour?

Has there been any real 'movement'? Kantar, having previously produced an outlier towards the Tories, has reverted to mean; ICM, having given Labour better ratings than other pollsters, has perhaps produced an outlier in Labour's direction. There really isn't that much to go on so far. By the end of the week we will know more.

Well, of course it's difficult to tell what's an outlier and what isn't before we know the election result. :-)

I just think people need to acknowledge that there is less certainty about the outcome of this election than many are assuming.

No, you can tell what is an outlier by comparing it to other polls. What you can't tell is whether all the polls as a whole are systematically wrong.

rottenborough said:

A thought.

Somewhere in a safeish Labour seat a new young MP is about to be elected who will lead them to two terms of government in a decade or so's time.

Any suggestions?

Wishful thinking - Shipley

Edit: missed the 'safish'. Cancel that

Casino_Royale said:

rottenborough said:

Casino_Royale said:

Can Jo Swinson stop being so shit, please?

What's she done now?

It’s more what she hasn’t done.

Its the chairman Mao uniform dresses in different colours that wind me up

Time_to_Leave said:

Casino_Royale said:

Can Jo Swinson stop being so shit, please?

I don’t understand why the ex-Labour MPs haven’t been used more in a “I didn’t leave Labour, Labour left me” way.

Yes, but like Swinson gambling everything on Revoke (and the Westminster bubble agreeing with her) the ex-Labour MPs are just as bad. They assume people will switch votes or abstain just because Corbyn is an absolute disgrace.

It doesn’t work that way.

A bit like how Europe pontificate for ages whenever they suffer a rejection of their latest integration initiative, before deciding the answer is “more Europe”, Labour voters have thought long and hard about how utterly ghastly Jeremy Corbyn is and voting for someone else before deciding in the final two weeks..

“Nah, I still hate the Tories more.”

Casino_Royale said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Casino_Royale said:

Can Jo Swinson stop being so shit, please?

I don’t understand why the ex-Labour MPs haven’t been used more in a “I didn’t leave Labour, Labour left me” way.

Yes, but like Swinson gambling everything on Revoke (and the Westminster bubble agreeing with her) the ex-Labour MPs are just as bad. They assume people will switch votes or abstain just because Corbyn is an absolute disgrace.

It doesn’t work that way.

A bit like how Europe pontificate for ages whenever they suffer a rejection of their latest integration initiative, before deciding the answer is “more Europe”, Labour voters have thought long and hard about how utterly ghastly Jeremy Corbyn is and voting for someone else before deciding in the final two weeks..

“Nah, I still hate the Tories more.”

The consolation, if it is one, being that a weak Corbyn Gvt, propped up by the Remain coalition, would have its ratings in the toilet very quickly. But by then it would be too late.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Where on earth did the nonsense that 'Incidents of Islamophobia went up 375% after Boris wrote his article on the burqa' come from? Presumably it's being quoted all the time now because it is in some Labour or Momentum briefing note to activists, but it only requires about 0.5 seconds thought to realise that it must be utter garbage even if it's just a temporal rather than the completely absurd implied causal link.
Boris is not exactly fastidious with the facts, but his critics on the left are just as bad.

As I asked earlier, it depends what number was used as the start point, and the time frame.

400% of 2, while too many is not a lot. 400% on 10,000 is a big issue.

TrèsDifficile said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Where on earth did the nonsense that 'Incidents of Islamophobia went up 375% after Boris wrote his article on the burqa' come from? Presumably it's being quoted all the time now because it is in some Labour or Momentum briefing note to activists, but it only requires about 0.5 seconds thought to realise that it must be utter garbage even if it's just a temporal rather than the completely absurd implied causal link.
Boris is not exactly fastidious with the facts, but his critics on the left are just as bad.

I've been carrying an envelope with me ever since I read Boris's article so that I can try post it through every burqa I see. Hasn't everyone?

Mine is self addressed. Posted it ages ago and it still hasn't got back to me.

kinabalu said:

148grss said:

https://jewishcurrents.org/a-springtime-of-erasure/

A very good piece, thanks.

Give us a precis or let me guess. Corbyn's not a filthy anti-semite?

ClippP said:

Casino_Royale said:

Can Jo Swinson stop being so shit, please?

She seems to be popular among the Lib Dem target voters, certainly in London. Only hard-case Tories say they do not like her - and that is only because they have received their instructions from CCHQ to express their negative feelings.

No.its also her weird accent that everybody I speak to about her has also noticed

madmacs said:

Just been reading that 3.2 million people have registered to vote since the election was called, About one third will be duplicates according to the Electoral Commission. Of the say 2 million new registrations it assumes two thirds are under 34. We can assume this will help Labour, and to a lesser extent the Lib Dems. Just wondering if when companies do polls they ask people if they are registered to vote. If they do and these are excluded, with such large numbers the polls may be underestimating Labour and maybe the Lib Dems. anyone know?

I don't think they are asked if they are registered voters, but I might be wrong.

timmo said:

ClippP said:

Casino_Royale said:

Can Jo Swinson stop being so shit, please?

She seems to be popular among the Lib Dem target voters, certainly in London. Only hard-case Tories say they do not like her - and that is only because they have received their instructions from CCHQ to express their negative feelings.

No.its also her weird accent that everybody I speak to about her has also noticed

It’s no wonder nearly half all of Scots want independence with reactions like that.

philiph said:

Casino_Royale said:

brokenwheel said:

Sprouts are best when fried.

With bacon and walnut oil, and some walnuts.

Maybe cream fraiche too.

With bacon and chestnuts, if you don't mind.

Ah, that’s the one!

Casino Royal: all your thoughts are so objective, as well as being rude!!!!!!!!!
After all some would happily use your words against yourself, just saying. Remember in this world what goes around comes around and if you do someone down it does come back to haunt you. .

This is a striking intervention from the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster -
https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/1199304826468876288

LostPassword said:

Chris said:

PeterC said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Have we stablished what is driving the movement in these polls? Is it firming up of don’t knows towards Labour?

Has there been any real 'movement'? Kantar, having previously produced an outlier towards the Tories, has reverted to mean; ICM, having given Labour better ratings than other pollsters, has perhaps produced an outlier in Labour's direction. There really isn't that much to go on so far. By the end of the week we will know more.

Well, of course it's difficult to tell what's an outlier and what isn't before we know the election result. :-)

I just think people need to acknowledge that there is less certainty about the outcome of this election than many are assuming.

No, you can tell what is an outlier by comparing it to other polls. What you can't tell is whether all the polls as a whole are systematically wrong.

Hmm. Well, I suppose it depends how you define an outlier. If you mean it just differs significantly from the other polls, I suppose you are right. On the other hand, when people talk about outliers I think there's an implicit assumption that sampling isn't biased. In that case, an outlier might be the result of bias. With your definition, an outlier might be the one accurate poll in a collection of otherwise biased ones!

Big_G_NorthWales said:

By 44% to 27% the public say that the Chief Rabbi of the UK was right to speak out regarding his criticism of Labour’s record on dealing with anti-Semitism. 68% of Tory voters are of this opinion compared to only 26% of Labour voters https://t.co/bXeFtriFX9 https://t.co/D5grX0u6yX

And the numbers for the statement from the Muslim Council of Britain?

timmo said:

On another note most people have been surprised by the levels of lib dem literature they have already received. There are words going around both Labour and Connservative central offices that the LDs are in serious breach of their spending limits. Centrally posted and distributed stuff now counts against an individual constituency when it turns up.
What may happen?

Electoral commission too busy investigating vote leave.

Time_to_Leave said:

The consolation, if it is one, being that a weak Corbyn Gvt, propped up by the Remain coalition, would have its ratings in the toilet very quickly. But by then it would be too late.

I'll say it again

THERE'S NOT GOING TO BE A "WEAK CORBYN GOVT, PROPPED UP BY THE REMAIN COALITION". Or a Johnson government propped up by anyone.

Right now there are two serious possibilities:

- a Johnson overall majority

- Or some kind of alliance: a Labour-dominated government, headed by someone who isn't Corbyn, that survives with Lib Dem & SNP (& poss. Green, UUP and DUP) support, or a Tory-dominated government, getting occasional LD support on issues like a new referendum while the Tory members tear themselves to shreds trying to decide who'll take over from the fat sexpest.

Is anyone offering money on both Corbyn and Johnson giving notice of resignation on December 13?