politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Reporting from the front Lyme

MaxPB said:

You see what beats me is why we made this idiotic 50k nurses claim. 30k would have been fine, it's a huge number and easy to campaign with. No need to defend it either.

My guess is the 50k number came from civil service policy work and was picked up and used by the Tory party without analysis of what it actually said.

If you’re doing workforce planning, part of the answer to increasing the size of your workforce is retention. In fact, if you only do it by recruitment you won’t have experienced staff to train and manage the new ones.

So in a Gvt internal document you’d talk about an increase of 50k, including some retention measures, and it would be accurate. Not so great as a political message.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Surge is on....starts packing bags....

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1199328545274761217?s=20

To be fair that just gets Labour to where they are in the majority of polls (low 30s) so the +5 looks dramatic but the 27% they polled in the previous Kanter was probably too low.

BluerBlue said:

Casino_Royale said:

Boris has simply course corrected for every one of May’s mistakes, and rolled the dice again.

He’s done nothing else.

You’ve have thought some independent strategic thinking wouldn’t have gone amiss about the circumstances *today* and broader mood and direction of the British electorate, playing the long game. But, no. It’s all last war stuff.

He may just get away with it (postals are already coming back in and it’s barely two weeks away, as opposed to May’s factory of banana skins that had another week or two to develop) but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him limp across the line none the wiser.

So what's the best strategic response: attack the Waspi or match the Waspi?

On the election as a whole: depressing as it is how easily the electorate falls for a raft of incredibly expensive bribes, I'm fairly Zen if they get what they deserve as a result - a hung Parliament in which they'll get no bribes, no Brexit, endless political and economic paralysis, and most probably several years of Boris governing impotently in the minority and cutting ribbons at fetes.

If the voters lack the critical thinking to understand that that is exactly the result that a vote for Labour will produce, well, that's democracy for you.

Recognise what the electorate wants (a better quality of life that delivers for them) and argue how Conservatives principles will deliver it in the medium-long run with some examples, rather than short-term bungs giving a temporary high and then cold turkey.

Rejecting the corporation tax cut using *Labour* arguments was stupid and entirely the wrong thing to do.

It amounted to an intellectual surrender on everything the Tories have been doing over the last nine years. When you do that you move the battle onto the opponents turf very favourably.

Have we stablished what is driving the movement in these polls? Is it firming up of don’t knows towards Labour?

Time_to_Leave said:

Have we stablished what is driving the movement in these polls? Is it firming up of don’t knows towards Labour?

It's just two polls so far this week - there'll be at least another 10 or so come Sunday.

Selebian said:

Doing postal votes last night and got into a discussion about which candidates might save their deposits and why the others bother. Got me thinking and here are the 2017 figures on lost deposits:
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/parliament-and-elections/elections-elections/lost-deposits/

For the Greens, that must surely be a fair chunk of their total election spending? If they stood in fewer places they could direct a lot more budget to those. Or do the individual candidates stump up (and so not transferable to other locations if they didn't stand). Does anyone know?

Is there also not the issue of short money? Yes, Greens will lose deposits (that are yes, either stumped up by the candidate or fund raised during the campaign), but for every 200 votes the party gets £33.33 annually.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Have we stablished what is driving the movement in these polls? Is it firming up of don’t knows towards Labour?

Lib Dems shockingly bad campaign can only be helping Labour.

Yep.

Brom said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

GIN1138 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Surge is on....starts packing bags....

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1199328545274761217?s=20

To be fair that just gets Labour to where they are in the majority of polls (low 30s) so the +5 looks dramatic but the 27% they polled in the previous Kanter was probably too low.

Sort of. What I think we are now seeing is Labour have got through the 30% ceiling that they were stuck at for over 2 weeks. If they can squeeze another 3-4% in the next 2 weeks, chances of Tory majority are very slim to none.

While / if Labour are held at 30%, I think Tories win by 10 (at least) and with it a reasonable majority.

Do you think the Tories can't win a majority with a 42-36 result? I think that would be enough. 42-37 would be too close to call.

I think something like that is very dicey, because I am sure we are going to see some weird upset seats that Tories lose to a strong remain area and a lot of seats will be really dependent on Labour / Lib Dem spitting the vote to let Tories through the middle (and the trend seems to be away from Lib Dems).

Gabs3 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1199281653195190273?s=20

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1199256752841281537?s=20

Roast potatoes looks well placed to win the savoury round, and with good reason.

I think that Christmas pudding is undermarked in the sweet section. I've never eaten an Eton Mess as a matter of principle.

Roast beef got a harsh first round drawing.

The only rival there is Yorkshire Pudding.

I wonder what everyone here's picks would be?

A : Salmon and Parsnips
B : Yorkshire Pudding and Roast Beef
C : Roast Chicken and Pigs in Blanket [but you can't have a Christmas meal without gravy so that's harsh!]
D : Roast Pork and Broccoli.

beentheredonethat said:

IanB2 said:

beentheredonethat said:

HYUFD said:

beentheredonethat said:

HYUFD said:

Cyclefree said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cyclefree said:

For instance, re the WASPI payment, McDonnell is saying that this is not costed because this is some sort of contingency payment - similar to paying compensation after a court order. Setting aside the obvious nonsense in that statement, why has no-one pointed out that according to the Treasury’s own report for 2017-2018 -
“The total cash supply expenditure authorised for 2016-17 was £479,543,120,000 (2015-16: £474,091,620,000) and accordingly the maximum capital, including the permanent capital, available to the Contingencies Fund in 2017-18 was £9,590,862,000 (2016-17: £9,481,832,000).”.
Nowhere near the £58 billion McDonnell is proposing to spend and doesn’t even allow for other contingencies.
The full report can be foundr?

I

Plus the Tory social media campaign is far better than 2017 at exposing Labour tax rises for example

How is the canvassing going there?

The Tories vote is holding up, however Labour are also getting out their vote

Thanks very much. Fascinating area in relation to national results

The challenge the Tories have in a seat like Chingford is not that supporters are changing to other parties but that they are disappearing and being replaced with Labour voters.

Haven’t been there for probably a decade so that is news to me. What is bringing about this change?

Generalising terribly. The traditional source of people north and east London - people from inner East London who have done well, moving out in middle age or for retirement, has pretty much dried up, except for Asian families who tend toward Labour. White people in such positions are moving straight out of London altogether. Those who are already there are dying, or retiring to Essex, and often these houses end up being retained and turned into lets, or bought as BTL, converted into flats and bedsits and let to younger people who tend toward Labour, or to non-voting EU citizens. The birth rate among the Asian population is significantly higher, hence those joining the register at age 18 are significantly more ethnic than the adult population. All of these factors together work against the Tories. IDS may hold on this time but I’d put money on it being Labour by 2024.

Xmas pudding should NOT be 'low tier', it should be much nearer the top. I really do like it a lot. I can't understand why the default answer to "How much?" when it's offered at actual Xmas seems to be "Oh just a sliver". That is not what I say. I always say "A really big piece please". Which I never have any problem whatsoever in finishing (brandy cream and all). Seconds even? No, but not because I couldn't.

timmo said:

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ooh

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1199296542613626880?s=21

It may just be poor old Jo Swinson. She really needs to ditch the hideous earrings, get better dresses (she has a good figure) and a nicer haircut. Boris needs to learn to tuck his shirt in and not dress like a schoolboy who’s just got out of bed and is late for school. Jeremy has made an effort but his trousers are a bit too long.
Their policies are rubbish on the whole. But intellectual argument seems wholly absent these days so we as may well vote on superficial stuff.

Sorry but it doesnt take a genius to work out that the hit is coming on Boris. Just look at other favourability polls over the last week and the narrowing of the gap between Corbyn and Johnson.
This spells huge trouble for the Tories.

Yep.

I’ve thought for a long time that Labour voters just can’t help it.

This election will confirm it.

Time_to_Leave said:

Have we stablished what is driving the movement in these polls? Is it firming up of don’t knows towards Labour?

Has there been any real 'movement'? Kantar, having previously produced an outlier towards the Tories, has reverted to mean; ICM, having given Labour better ratings than other pollsters, has perhaps produced an outlier in Labour's direction. There really isn't that much to go on so far. By the end of the week we will know more.

Do Dems hold grudges as strongly as Labour do here?

https://twitter.com/HeerJeet/status/1199324006203002880?s=20

Casino_Royale said:

I’ve thought for a long time that Labour voters just can’t help it.

This election will confirm it.

As I have pointed out since the beginning, Tories huge margins have been down to big leads in the North among working class folk. It ain't going to happen, you watch when it comes to it they will convince themselves that Jezza will still enable Brexit to happen and that they just can't vote for Boris / Tories.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TrèsDifficile said:

TOPPING said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Parsnips are disgusting and who is Yougov surveying who'd know an Eton mess from a smashed-up pavlova?

Parsnips should be thoroughly parboiled then roasted until they are only just recognisable as parsnips and then they are one of god's most perfect creations.

The best way to have parsnips is grated in parsnip and onion bhajis. I've made them for about 30 different people, and they've all said they were the best bhajis they've ever had.

Point of (anecdotal) order: My mum always reminds me that "bhaji" is a curry. The fried things are called "bhajia(s)".

Pakora

PeterC said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Have we stablished what is driving the movement in these polls? Is it firming up of don’t knows towards Labour?

Has there been any real 'movement'? Kantar, having previously produced an outlier towards the Tories, has reverted to mean; ICM, having given Labour better ratings than other pollsters, has perhaps produced an outlier in Labour's direction. There really isn't that much to go on so far. By the end of the week we will know more.

Yes that’s fair. And if you were the Tories you might quite like an unsubstantiated “wobble” narrative, followed by the “come back”. Like when Cameron (literally) rolled up his sleeves in 2015.

PeterC said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Have we stablished what is driving the movement in these polls? Is it firming up of don’t knows towards Labour?

Has there been any real 'movement'? Kantar, having previously produced an outlier towards the Tories, has reverted to mean; ICM, having given Labour better ratings than other pollsters, has perhaps produced an outlier in Labour's direction. There really isn't that much to go on so far. By the end of the week we will know more.

The difference between the Tory lead in ICM and Opinium was about as large as the range in the end-of-campaign polls in 2017. We might not have any idea which is correct until the clock hits ten!

timmo said:

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ooh

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1199296542613626880?s=21

It may just be poor old Jo Swinson. She really needs to ditch the hideous earrings, get better dresses (she has a good figure) and a nicer haircut. Boris needs to learn to tuck his shirt in and not dress like a schoolboy who’s just got out of bed and is late for school. Jeremy has made an effort but his trousers are a bit too long.
Their policies are rubbish on the whole. But intellectual argument seems wholly absent these days so we as may well vote on superficial stuff.

Sorry but it doesnt take a genius to work out that the hit is coming on Boris. Just look at other favourability polls over the last week and the narrowing of the gap between Corbyn and Johnson.
This spells huge trouble for the Tories.

Agreed. Plus the Tories may just be piling up huge majorities in existing seats which would explain the polls and why we end up with a hung Parliament, again.
That would, frankly, serve the Tories right.

This makes me think if Bloomberg runs as an independent he will harm Trump more than the Dem nominee, especially if it turns out to be Warren
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/26/bloomberg-republican-endorsement-2020-073807
This is the kind of guy establishment Republican voters can get behind, the WASPs, the Bushes the kind that makes up maybe 5-10% of the GOP vote. The Dem nominee would easily be able to position between two billionaires as the only person who really understands the average American. Trump would likely take any bait Bloomberg put out about his wealth, and try and get in a pissing contest with someone much richer, whilst Bloomberg will basically run a Romneyesque campaign, with maybe a tad more understanding on social issues and climate change.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Do we know when the YouGov MRP projections are going to arrive? I think someone said tomorrow, but do we have a time?

10pm Wednesday.

148grss said:

Selebian said:

Doing postal votes last night and got into a discussion about which candidates might save their deposits and why the others bother. Got me thinking and here are the 2017 figures on lost deposits:
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/parliament-and-elections/elections-elections/lost-deposits/

For the Greens, that must surely be a fair chunk of their total election spending? If they stood in fewer places they could direct a lot more budget to those. Or do the individual candidates stump up (and so not transferable to other locations if they didn't stand). Does anyone know?

Is there also not the issue of short money? Yes, Greens will lose deposits (that are yes, either stumped up by the candidate or fund raised during the campaign), but for every 200 votes the party gets £33.33 annually.

Thanks, I didn't know that (thought short money was only based on seats). Becomes a much more complicated assessment then.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Do we know when the YouGov MRP projections are going to arrive? I think someone said tomorrow, but do we have a time?

10pm Wednesday.

Ta.
Edit: Oops, I misread that as 10am. 10pm is great for me, there could be a need to get some quick constituency bets on.

I can't see the Tories getting more than 42%, I think that is their absolute ceiling. Labour on the other hand, more Lib Dem with their crap campaign to squeeze.

It's that time of the campaign again ! PB Tory crap yourself O'clock.

Theuniondivvie said:

Do Dems hold grudges as strongly as Labour do here?

https://twitter.com/HeerJeet/status/1199324006203002880?s=20

I just posted a politico article, he also funded Scott Brown against Warren in 2012, which will go down with many Dem voters like a bucket of cold sick...

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Do we know when the YouGov MRP projections are going to arrive? I think someone said tomorrow, but do we have a time?

Yougov themselves said two weeks before the election, so I think this is just extrapolation.

No, YouGov confirmed it yesterday when they were at pains to say the Praxis MRP was NOT a YouGov MRP.

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Do we know when the YouGov MRP projections are going to arrive? I think someone said tomorrow, but do we have a time?

Yougov themselves said two weeks before the election, so I think this is just extrapolation.

YouGov confirmed its going to be 10pm tomorrow (Wednesday) yesterday.

Cyclefree said:

timmo said:

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ooh

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1199296542613626880?s=21

It may just be poor old Jo Swinson. She really needs to ditch the hideous earrings, get better dresses (she has a good figure) and a nicer haircut. Boris needs to learn to tuck his shirt in and not dress like a schoolboy who’s just got out of bed and is late for school. Jeremy has made an effort but his trousers are a bit too long.
Their policies are rubbish on the whole. But intellectual argument seems wholly absent these days so we as may well vote on superficial stuff.

Sorry but it doesnt take a genius to work out that the hit is coming on Boris. Just look at other favourability polls over the last week and the narrowing of the gap between Corbyn and Johnson.
This spells huge trouble for the Tories.

Agreed. Plus the Tories may just be piling up huge majorities in existing seats which would explain the polls and why we end up with a hung Parliament, again.
That would, frankly, serve the Tories right.

The crosstabs have been showing the opposite though? Losing votes to the Lib Dems where they can afford to and taking them off Labour where they need them.

kinabalu said:

Xmas pudding should NOT be 'low tier', it should be much nearer the top. I really do like it a lot. I can't understand why the default answer to "How much?" when it's offered at actual Xmas seems to be "Oh just a sliver". That is not what I say. I always say "A really big piece please". Which I never have any problem whatsoever in finishing (brandy cream and all). Seconds even? No, but not because I couldn't.

I always say "just a big bit".

Found this quite funny, like Corbyn or not:
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1199225021119582208

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

Does anyone know how frequent the MRP updates are going to be?

IIRC weekly.

Weekly? Next to useless.

Pulpstar said:

It's that time of the campaign again ! PB Tory crap yourself O'clock.

Yep. Happens every time. There was even a bit of a Con wobble at one point in the 1983 election campaign.

Trouble is last time the wobble became terminal for Theresa's chances!

Stocky said:

kinabalu said:

Xmas pudding should NOT be 'low tier', it should be much nearer the top. I really do like it a lot. I can't understand why the default answer to "How much?" when it's offered at actual Xmas seems to be "Oh just a sliver". That is not what I say. I always say "A really big piece please". Which I never have any problem whatsoever in finishing (brandy cream and all). Seconds even? No, but not because I couldn't.

I always say "just a big bit".

Victoria sponge is correctly placed. And every day should be National Cake Day.

A blast from the past

https://twitter.com/ABLPoli/status/1198948742294048768

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

Does anyone know how frequent the MRP updates are going to be?

IIRC weekly.

I think that’s how long it takes them to get the 50k sample.

In 2017 they updated the model daily, and published the results here

https://yg-infographics-data.s3.amazonaws.com/uk-elections-2017/figures/party_constituency_vote_shares.csv

That’s by removing the oldest day and adding the latest day of polling.

Alistair said:

A blast from the past

https://twitter.com/ABLPoli/status/1198948742294048768

And note the second story!

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Do we know when the YouGov MRP projections are going to arrive? I think someone said tomorrow, but do we have a time?

10pm Wednesday.

Ta.
Edit: Oops, I misread that as 10am. 10pm is great for me, there could be a need to get some quick constituency bets on.

I’ll be at the cathedral of football that is Anfield tomorrow night.

I remember my first match too!

FRom: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/31/how-yougov-model-2017-general-election-works
Look at this grammatically perfect sentence that would cause lesser people to crumble
Over the course of a week, data are collected from around 50,000 panellists.

Magnificent.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Alistair said:

A blast from the past

https://twitter.com/ABLPoli/status/1198948742294048768

And note the second story!

Yes, antisemitism isn't going to shift a single vote this election

Philip_Thompson said:

beentheredonethat said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gabs3 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1199281653195190273?s=20

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1199256752841281537?s=20

Roast potatoes looks well placed to win the savoury round, and with good reason.

I think that Christmas pudding is undermarked in the sweet section. I've never eaten an Eton Mess as a matter of principle.

Roast beef got a harsh first round drawing.

The only rival there is Yorkshire Pudding.

I wonder what everyone here's picks would be?

A : Salmon and Parsnips
B : Yorkshire Pudding and Roast Beef
C : Roast Chicken and Pigs in Blanket [but you can't have a Christmas meal without gravy so that's harsh!]
D : Roast Pork and Broccoli.

I do gammon, roast beef, lamb and chicken. Never had decent turkey so never do it.

100% agreed. Turkey is dry chicken. I'd far rather chicken any day of the week than turkey.

Turkey seems to be one of those things people do because it is what people do rather than because its the best meat to go for. No thanks!

The turkey is only as good as the cook.

IanB2 said:

Descending to discussing leaders’ dress sense is pretty poor; although it is true that Jo only seems to be able to wear one colour at a time, this is hardly a criterion for deciding how to vote.
Although during my many years as a councillor I came across a variety of bizarre reasons why people voted for me, or not.

And were your clothes ever a factor?

TOPPING said:

Cyclefree said:

Roast parsnips are very good indeed.

Thank you! People are imagining poorly roasted, hard lumps instead of them being roasted within an inch of their lives.
@Meeks you need to boil some first then almost forget about them in the oven and voilà.

Coat them in Maple Syrup before roasting, fantastic.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Don’t write Labour off yet
Ever since the campaign began, public support for Jeremy Corbyn’s party has been rising
https://unherd.com/2019/11/dont-write-labour-off-yet/

No one is writing off Labour. In fact in the past 24 hours a few people have been writing off a Tory majority. It will be close.

I'd say 43/38 would be my prediction.

Alistair said:

FRom: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/31/how-yougov-model-2017-general-election-works
Look at this grammatically perfect sentence that would cause lesser people to crumble
Over the course of a week, data are collected from around 50,000 panellists.

Magnificent.

I’m still in therapy over this.

https://twitter.com/mikecolton/status/884843351479992321

Alistair said:

A blast from the past

https://twitter.com/ABLPoli/status/1198948742294048768

Astonishing to see that YouGov poll described as 'controversial'.

Alistair said:

A blast from the past

https://twitter.com/ABLPoli/status/1198948742294048768

It was remarkable how accurate that was

kinabalu said:

IanB2 said:

Descending to discussing leaders’ dress sense is pretty poor; although it is true that Jo only seems to be able to wear one colour at a time, this is hardly a criterion for deciding how to vote.
Although during my many years as a councillor I came across a variety of bizarre reasons why people voted for me, or not.

And were your clothes ever a factor?

Didn’t @NickPalmer say that he had one lady voting for him because he was tall?

So far we've had lots of polls which can tell us the broad shape of HOW MANY votes there are out there for each candidate - but -
The most important part of the YouGov MRP should be to...……. broadly confirm where the votes ARE.