politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Reporting from the front Lyme

1st again!

Newcastle-Under-Lyme headers are potty.

Best of luck to Aaron!

https://twitter.com/ICMResearch/status/1199302594054766594?s=19

"And voters aren’t stupid: they don’t blame Boris for missing the 31st October deadline"

Weren't we assured by many remainers here that he would be blamed?

Shocking that that old punter in the pic can't afford to keep the heating on and is thus having to wear a zipped up padded gilet indoors. More oap cosseting required obviously.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Alistair said:

Is this new or already reported on?

https://twitter.com/ICMResearch/status/1199302594054766594?s=19

Yes

Indeed, I posted it on the last thread!

Best of luck indeed!

wooliedyed said:

Corbyn has no chaired himself at the anti racism event. Appalling

What was this for sorry?

Cyclefree said:

wooliedyed said:

Corbyn has no chaired himself at the anti racism event. Appalling

It’s what lifetime campaigners against racism do, apparently.

I mean if hes sick then ok but otherwise it's pure scumbaggery/jew baiting

Mysticrose said:

Another poll just out (ICM) with the lead at 7% and a narrowing

https://twitter.com/ICMResearch/status/1199302594054766594?s=20

We had that poll yesterday

I am not sure I would ever take the view of an observer at a count over the post referendum analysis of a respected academic. Such a view will, however, fit nicely in the Commons which regards evidence based policy as anathema and any background in numerate and scientific subjects to be viewed with intense suspicion.

Mysticrose said:

Another poll just out (ICM) with the lead at 7% and a narrowing

https://twitter.com/ICMResearch/status/1199302594054766594?s=20

Not JUST out! We knew about this one yesterday!

Mysticrose said:

Another poll just out (ICM) with the lead at 7% and a narrowing

https://twitter.com/ICMResearch/status/1199302594054766594?s=20

Old news it was out yesterday afternoon and was the catalyst for much meltdown

humbugger said:

Apologies if this has been covered before, but according to the Mail Diane Abbott and Valerie Vaz are amongst 8 senior Labour women who will receive the WASPI bribe.

Are Labour really proposing to pay money to people who are still working? Seriously???

wooliedyed said:

Corbyn has no chaired himself at the anti racism event. Appalling

Errr ...????

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1199302964705447936?s=20

wooliedyed said:

MilesPartridge said:

wooliedyed said:

Corbyn has no chaired himself at the anti racism event. Appalling

What was this for sorry?

The launch of the race manifesto. Hes bunked it

Except he hasn't. He has arrived.

humbugger said:

Apologies if this has been covered before, but according to the Mail Diane Abbott and Valerie Vaz are amongst 8 senior Labour women who will receive the WASPI bribe.

Someone should tell Diane. Apparently she looked at her birthdate, did a quick calculation and decided she is only 52.

Jesus Christ.

https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/1199305424132091904?s=20

Mysticrose said:

wooliedyed said:

Corbyn has no chaired himself at the anti racism event. Appalling

Errr ...????

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1199302964705447936?s=20

Oh hes swanned in 45 minutes late. How good of him to pop in

TrèsDifficile said:

"And voters aren’t stupid: they don’t blame Boris for missing the 31st October deadline"

Weren't we assured by many remainers here that he would be blamed?

Of course he should be. Voters *are* stupid.

Really interesting thread. Good luck.

Mysticrose said:

I don't think anyone can deny now that there has been a shift to Labour. It may be small but it's fairly incontrovertible.

The question is why?

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1199279263440154626?s=20

Mainly Labour squeezing the LD vote, Tories still at 2017 levels but not by enough yet to stop a Tory majority

Mysticrose said:

The question is why?

The power of "Get Brexit Done" as a slogan is that the voters are sick and tired of the continuing wrangle over Brexit and want it over with. Apparently Johnson is so enamoured of the subject that he thinks the text of his Brexit Deal is a suitable Christmas present. Massive mistake. Cruel and unusual punishment masquerading as a present. Undermines his own messaging. Makes it look like he's the candidate who would bore everyone with the minutiae of his Brexit Deal at the work Christmas Party, would choose it as his specialist subject on Mastermind, etc, etc. The voters are sick of Brexit - and it's all Johnson wants to talk about. For ever. The horror.

Theuniondivvie said:

Jesus Christ.

https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/1199305424132091904?s=20

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEVVwzo5E7s

"Reporting from the front Lyme"

We also need to hear from Angela Rayner's constituency, but I have no idea how it would be titled.

Good Luck Aaron. I imagine Caroline Flint will be pleased to see you in the Potteries, too.

Cyclefree said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Cyclefree said:

wooliedyed said:

Corbyn has no chaired himself at the anti racism event. Appalling

It’s what lifetime campaigners against racism do, apparently.

He’s probably campaigning vigorously against racism somewhere else. Somewhere he can be sure there are no jews.....

Well he has now arrived. So the criticism (including my own) should be withdrawn.

Yes that’s fair.

Theuniondivvie said:

Jesus Christ.

https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/1199305424132091904?s=20

Quality from Gove 🙌🏻

Mysticrose said:

Instead of hoping it's not the case, might people be interested in addressing the fairly obvious dent in the tories' lead in the last week? Why? Why? Why?

Is it the student issue? WASPI? Johnson's frankly rubbish performances in front of camera?

Or just Labour coming home?

What's it all about?

I think we should be told.

The reason I'm asking this is because this could be nothing more than a blip. Or it could be the beginning of the end of the Conservatives. Or something in between.

Kantar is a bit wild but it drops into line with the polling at the weekend and the previous was on the outlier end of polling this campaign. The welsh poll also supports a 11-12% or so lead and is change over 3 weeks. This leaves survation and ICM which show a small movement within MoE. Until we see if the other pollsters are showing movement you cant extrapolate anything from 2 margin of error movements.
In respect of leader ratings the gold standard MORI had a 1% swing to Jezza, I.e. meaningless. It updates tomorrow as does Mori VI.
There should be a YouGov out today and the mrp tomorrow evening

Time_to_Leave said:

Cyclefree said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Cyclefree said:

wooliedyed said:

Corbyn has no chaired himself at the anti racism event. Appalling

It’s what lifetime campaigners against racism do, apparently.

He’s probably campaigning vigorously against racism somewhere else. Somewhere he can be sure there are no jews.....

Well he has now arrived. So the criticism (including my own) should be withdrawn.

Yes that’s fair.

Regrettably it is. Hes late though like a big oaf

Thanks for the interesting article Aaron and best of luck!

Mysticrose said:

Instead of hoping it's not the case, might people be interested in addressing the fairly obvious dent in the tories' lead in the last week? Why? Why? Why?

Is it the student issue? WASPI? Johnson's frankly rubbish performances in front of camera?

Or just Labour coming home?

What's it all about?

I think we should be told.

The reason I'm asking this is because this could be nothing more than a blip. Or it could be the beginning of the end of the Conservatives. Or something in between.

I don’t honestly know the answer. I have always thought - and said on here - that I expected Labour to do better, the Tories worse than they both thought and for the Lib Dems not to do as well as they might once have hoped. Another hung Parliament is a very real possibility.
I will suggest three reasons:-
1. There is not much in the Tory manifesto. No eye-catching retail offer. Something towards students / the young should have been included.
2. For all the talk about people disliking Corbyn etc I think a lot of Labour voters are able somehow to disassociate voting Labour with supporting Corbyn. So they feel able to be as rude about Corbyn as possible but still tick the Labour box.
3. The Tories really have not attacked the Labour manifesto - it’s unaffordability, the cost, the unintended consequences, its authoritarianism (a state owned internet, FFS! - like Iran or China). They are - much like May- letting Labour’s manifesto go by default. Where the hell is the Tory treasury team, for instance?

Cyclefree said:

Mysticrose said:

Instead of hoping it's not the case, might people be interested in addressing the fairly obvious dent in the tories' lead in the last week? Why? Why? Why?

Is it the student issue? WASPI? Johnson's frankly rubbish performances in front of camera?

Or just Labour coming home?

What's it all about?

I think we should be told.

The reason I'm asking this is because this could be nothing more than a blip. Or it could be the beginning of the end of the Conservatives. Or something in between.

I don’t honestly know the answer. I have always thought - and said on here - that I expected Labour to do better, the Tories worse than they both thought and for the Lib Dems not to do as well as they might once have hoped. Another hung Parliament is a very real possibility.
I will suggest three reasons:-
1. There is not much in the Tory manifesto. No eye-catching retail offer. Something towards students / the young should have been included.
2. For all the talk about people disliking Corbyn etc I think a lot of Labour voters are able somehow to disassociate voting Labour with supporting Corbyn. So they feel able to be as rude about Corbyn as possible but still tick the Labour box.
3. The Tories really have not attacked the Labour manifesto - it’s unaffordability, the cost, the unintended consequences, its authoritarianism (a state owned internet, FFS! - like Iran or China). They are - much like May- letting Labour’s manifesto go by default. Where the hell is the Tory treasury team, for instance?

Spot on

Mysticrose said:

Whatever your politics, 'Get Brexit Done' is a godawful slogan. I think people are really sick of hearing it, just as many people are heartily sick of Brexit. I don't know anyone who talks about it. They ARE talking about loads of other policy issues though.

The beautiful irony of this is that Tony Blair warned that a General Election would be more than about just Brexit. But the Tories haven't shown any adaptation and are still in robotic mode.

They may still win but this is sooooooooooooo like 2017 again.

That slogan keeps the Tories above 40%.

Other than that having avoided a dementia tax gaffe in the manifesto provided the LD vote stays over 10% unlike 2017 the Tories should win a majority

I would wish you good luck, Aaron - but it is more about the hard graft of a new candidate getting known by his voters.

(The good luck comes in hoping the centre don't cock it up for you!)

Cyclefree said:

Mysticrose said:

Instead of hoping it's not the case, might people be interested in addressing the fairly obvious dent in the tories' lead in the last week? Why? Why? Why?

Is it the student issue? WASPI? Johnson's frankly rubbish performances in front of camera?

Or just Labour coming home?

What's it all about?

I think we should be told.

The reason I'm asking this is because this could be nothing more than a blip. Or it could be the beginning of the end of the Conservatives. Or something in between.

I don’t honestly know the answer. I have always thought - and said on here - that I expected Labour to do better, the Tories worse than they both thought and for the Lib Dems not to do as well as they might once have hoped. Another hung Parliament is a very real possibility.
I will suggest three reasons:-
1. There is not much in the Tory manifesto. No eye-catching retail offer. Something towards students / the young should have been included.
2. For all the talk about people disliking Corbyn etc I think a lot of Labour voters are able somehow to disassociate voting Labour with supporting Corbyn. So they feel able to be as rude about Corbyn as possible but still tick the Labour box.
3. The Tories really have not attacked the Labour manifesto - it’s unaffordability, the cost, the unintended consequences, its authoritarianism (a state owned internet, FFS! - like Iran or China). They are - much like May- letting Labour’s manifesto go by default. Where the hell is the Tory treasury team, for instance?

Rubbish, the Tories manifesto offers plenty on new affordable housing if you bothered to read it and the Tories provided plenty of attack ads on Labour's gift tax and tax rises on social media unlike 2017

Cyclefree said:

Mysticrose said:

Instead of hoping it's not the case, might people be interested in addressing the fairly obvious dent in the tories' lead in the last week? Why? Why? Why?

Is it the student issue? WASPI? Johnson's frankly rubbish performances in front of camera?

Or just Labour coming home?

What's it all about?

I think we should be told.

The reason I'm asking this is because this could be nothing more than a blip. Or it could be the beginning of the end of the Conservatives. Or something in between.

I don’t honestly know the answer. I have always thought - and said on here - that I expected Labour to do better, the Tories worse than they both thought and for the Lib Dems not to do as well as they might once have hoped. Another hung Parliament is a very real possibility.
I will suggest three reasons:-
1. There is not much in the Tory manifesto. No eye-catching retail offer. Something towards students / the young should have been included.
2. For all the talk about people disliking Corbyn etc I think a lot of Labour voters are able somehow to disassociate voting Labour with supporting Corbyn. So they feel able to be as rude about Corbyn as possible but still tick the Labour box.
3. The Tories really have not attacked the Labour manifesto - it’s unaffordability, the cost, the unintended consequences, its authoritarianism (a state owned internet, FFS! - like Iran or China). They are - much like May- letting Labour’s manifesto go by default. Where the hell is the Tory treasury team, for instance?

And the Tories overestimated Bozo’s potential popularity as a campaigner. His glory days are gone (yet note how often Bozo himself tries to refer back to his mayoral days when interviewed); both his personal and political reputations are now tarnished, and he is marmite rather than honey. Marmite means that a proportion of those who haven’t thought much about him will dislike him when forced to take a taste.

Ok, own up, which one of you was it?
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1199267891385905152

Why would the Tory manifesto deal with Labour's anti-semitism problems, Mr. Corbyn?

My wife has just walked out of our lounge saying she cannot take anymore from Corbyn on his press conference

He disgusts her

For instance, re the WASPI payment, McDonnell is saying that this is not costed because this is some sort of contingency payment - similar to paying compensation after a court order. Setting aside the obvious nonsense in that statement, why has no-one pointed out that according to the Treasury’s own report for 2017-2018 -
“The total cash supply expenditure authorised for 2016-17 was £479,543,120,000 (2015-16: £474,091,620,000) and accordingly the maximum capital, including the permanent capital, available to the Contingencies Fund in 2017-18 was £9,590,862,000 (2016-17: £9,481,832,000).”.
Nowhere near the £58 billion McDonnell is proposing to spend and doesn’t even allow for other contingencies.
The full report can be found here - https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/719821/Contingencies_Fund_2017-18.pdf.
Took me all of 5 minutes to find this. What the the hell is the Tory campaign doing? Or journalists for that matter?

Back in 2016 I theorised on here about how Trump could win (despite thinking he could not).
The main thing I raised was that the Trump vote had the potential to be incredibly efficient, and get just enough across the rust belt (plus existing states) to inch him over the line.
Conversely the Dem vote was going to be horribly inefficient even if Clinton won.
With a massive overweight California delivering lots of popular vote but no extra electoral college votes.

I wish I had bet on such accurate an penetrative insight.

So, here is my musing in 2019 and how the Cons avoid getting an easy majority.
Is the Con surge to 42%ish predicated entirely on Brexit party candidates standing down in Con seats. Are we about to see Con rack up massive majorities in seats they already hold and Labour just hang on in everything they are defending?
This is why the YouGov MRP is so important for understanding what is happening.

Cyclefree said:

For instance, re the WASPI payment, McDonnell is saying that this is not costed because this is some sort of contingency payment - similar to paying compensation after a court order. Setting aside the obvious nonsense in that statement, why has no-one pointed out that according to the Treasury’s own report for 2017-2018 -
“The total cash supply expenditure authorised for 2016-17 was £479,543,120,000 (2015-16: £474,091,620,000) and accordingly the maximum capital, including the permanent capital, available to the Contingencies Fund in 2017-18 was £9,590,862,000 (2016-17: £9,481,832,000).”.
Nowhere near the £58 billion McDonnell is proposing to spend and doesn’t even allow for other contingencies.
The full report can be found here - https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/719821/Contingencies_Fund_2017-18.pdf.
Took me all of 5 minutes to find this. What the the hell is the Tory campaign doing? Or journalists for that matter?

I have no idea why Corbyn and McDonnell are getting a free pass on this

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1199281653195190273?s=20

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1199256752841281537?s=20

https://twitter.com/davidsirota/status/1199142832436592640?s=20

Bread sauce on 11% is a travesty.

IanB2 said:

Cyclefree said:

Mysticrose said:

Instead of hoping it's not the case, might people be interested in addressing the fairly obvious dent in the tories' lead in the last week? Why? Why? Why?

Is it the student issue? WASPI? Johnson's frankly rubbish performances in front of camera?

Or just Labour coming home?

What's it all about?

I think we should be told.

The reason I'm asking this is because this could be nothing more than a blip. Or it could be the beginning of the end of the Conservatives. Or something in between.

I don’t honestly know the answer. I have always thought - and said on here - that I expected Labour to do better, the Tories worse than they both thought and for the Lib Dems not to do as well as they might once have hoped. Another hung Parliament is a very real possibility.
I will suggest three reasons:-
1. There is not much in the Tory manifesto. No eye-catching retail offer. Something towards students / the young should have been included.
2. For all the talk about people disliking Corbyn etc I think a lot of Labour voters are able somehow to disassociate voting Labour with supporting Corbyn. So they feel able to be as rude about Corbyn as possible but still tick the Labour box.
3. The Tories really have not attacked the Labour manifesto - it’s unaffordability, the cost, the unintended consequences, its authoritarianism (a state owned internet, FFS! - like Iran or China). They are - much like May- letting Labour’s manifesto go by default. Where the hell is the Tory treasury team, for instance?

And the Tories overestimated Bozo’s potential popularity as a campaigner. His glory days are gone (yet note how often Bozo himself tries to refer back to his mayoral days when interviewed); both his personal and political reputations are now tarnished, and he is marmite rather than honey. Marmite means that a proportion of those who haven’t thought much about him will dislike him when forced to take a taste.

The Tories are up 10 to 20% in the polls since the Spring thanks to Boris

HYUFD said:

Cyclefree said:

Mysticrose said:

Instead of hoping it's not the case, might people be interested in addressing the fairly obvious dent in the tories' lead in the last week? Why? Why? Why?

Is it the student issue? WASPI? Johnson's frankly rubbish performances in front of camera?

Or just Labour coming home?

What's it all about?

I think we should be told.

The reason I'm asking this is because this could be nothing more than a blip. Or it could be the beginning of the end of the Conservatives. Or something in between.

I don’t honestly know the answer. I have always thought - and said on here - that I expected Labour to do better, the Tories worse than they both thought and for the Lib Dems not to do as well as they might once have hoped. Another hung Parliament is a very real possibility.
I will suggest three reasons:-
1. There is not much in the Tory manifesto. No eye-catching retail offer. Something towards students / the young should have been included.
2. For all the talk about people disliking Corbyn etc I think a lot of Labour voters are able somehow to disassociate voting Labour with supporting Corbyn. So they feel able to be as rude about Corbyn as possible but still tick the Labour box.
3. The Tories really have not attacked the Labour manifesto - it’s unaffordability, the cost, the unintended consequences, its authoritarianism (a state owned internet, FFS! - like Iran or China). They are - much like May- letting Labour’s manifesto go by default. Where the hell is the Tory treasury team, for instance?

Rubbish, the Tories manifesto offers plenty on new affordable housing if you bothered to read it and the Tories provided plenty of attack ads on Labour's gift tax and tax rises on social media unlike 2017

I have read it. How are ex-students paying a 6% interest rate on debt plus having to pay rent able to save the deposit for even affordable housing. The gift tax is not in the Labour manifesto.
The Tories are far too invisible. You may not like hearing it but the Tories are simply not ruthless enough and far too complacent and there is plenty in Labour’s manifesto which is superficially attractive eg making sure that rented accommodation is fit for the purpose, for instance.

@Alistair - the other thing to look out for in the YouGov MRP is how efficiently the Labour/Lib Dem vote splits. Same national vote shares could have a very different outcome.

Is the new Vanilla format someone's idea of an 'upgrade', or is it a fault?