politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If this polling turns out to be accurate then it is great news
Comments
-
malcolmg said:
"MUPPET"
Which one? Fozzie?0 -
a) Johnson never feels boxed in by any promise he has made and trusts himself to get away with breaking it if ever he needs torottenborough said:Why on earth has Johnson boxed himself in financially with this ridiculous pledge on taxes?
b) The promise leaves plenty of scope for increasing the tax take - most obviously by not applying inflation increases to allowances - or a hundred and one other cunning wheezes locked away in a Treasury filing cabinet
c) It might actually come in handy as an excuse as to why he cant keep spending money on everything0 -
Mr. Sandpit, yeah, but the people of Scotland can't be allowed to stand in the way of letting the people of Scotland leave the UK.2
-
Those lines are starting to look pretty flat now.RobD said:
Updated the plot - https://imgur.com/WSe1ZilCorrectHorseBattery said:11 point Survation gap is interesting but Labour are still stuck at 30%
They need something to give them a kick. Perhaps a blatant bribe of 3 million women would do the trick?
0 -
Repealing FTPA is going to be a right pain in the arse, as the previous status quo (the Royal Prerogative) is difficult to return to once it’s been legislated away.IanB2 said:
I understood that they cant simply repeal it, but need to replace it with something.RobD said:Guardian reporting the Tories will get rid of FTPA.
Well, they've got my vote.
It’s going to take a lot of expert constitutional thinking to work out how to fix the problem, I’d guess that a House of Lords Committee will be tasked with finding a solution.0 -
Malc and I get on well notwithstanding I am a Welsh/Englishman married to a Scot both of us being avid unionists and conservativesNorthCadboll said:Just asking for a friend, has MalcolmG ever managed to make a posting on PB without being rude/using foul language/insulting fellow PBers who dont think the sun shines out of Nicola Sturgeon's arse [any or all of the above]?
0 -
Add me to the list.TimT said:
+1Philip_Thompson said:
Trump can go f**k himself and the sooner he is gone the better.HYUFD said:
Trump has far higher approval ratings with Leavers than Remainers and it is most of the former voting Tory or Brexit Party nowTheScreamingEagles said:
Please don't imply Leave voters like that orange turd.0 -
Rural areas are strongly Tory anyway, it is marginal suburban seats and medium sized towns the Tories need to win and they are anti huntingCorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Yes.NorthCadboll said:Just asking for a friend, has MalcolmG ever managed to make a posting on PB without being rude/using foul language/insulting fellow PBers who dont think the sun shines out of Nicola Sturgeon's arse [any or all of the above]?
0 -
That’s fine. They’ll let a backbench bill amend it, if there’s a majority in the HoC to do so.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
I wish there was a market on her departure date to bet on it.malcolmg said:
Keep trying Harry , someday someone will believe youFlashy5 said:
She won’t be leader in 2021.Casino_Royale said:
She's arguing for one next year (the next Scottish election isn't until May 2021) and wants to use this general election as a mandate for that.Time_to_Leave said:
They won the last Hollyrood election. They should get a referendum every time they do that if they have the votes. It’s for the Scots to decide whether that gets boring or wasteful.Casino_Royale said:
If they got less than half the seats and just over a third of the vote in Scotland then it really wouldn't be.SandyRentool said:
If 40% is a mandate for Bozo's Brexit deal then it should be sufficient for Indyref2.Casino_Royale said:It would be funny if the SNP dropped below 40% of the vote and got less than half the seats in Scotland - 29 seats.
Wouldn't be great for that second referendum mandate, that.
She was decidedly lukewarm about a sequel at the last Scottish election in May 2016.0 -
.
Softest of soft ball question.kle4 said:Such a Tory shill...
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/11986100743584931850 -
Can you not just legislate to restore the Royal Prerogative or legislate to recreate it as it was?Sandpit said:
Repealing FTPA is going to be a right pain in the arse, as the previous status quo (the Royal Prerogative) is difficult to return to once it’s been legislated away.IanB2 said:
I understood that they cant simply repeal it, but need to replace it with something.RobD said:Guardian reporting the Tories will get rid of FTPA.
Well, they've got my vote.
It’s going to take a lot of expert constitutional thinking to work out how to fix the problem, I’d guess that a House of Lords Committee will be tasked with finding a solution.
Create a new 5 year Parliament Act saying that Parliament is dissolved 5 years after the last election, but giving the PM legal authority to request an early dissolution.0 -
Given that the SNP got a mandate at 2016 they don't need one on the 12th.HYUFD said:The SNP on just 40%, 10% down on their 2015 total and 5% down on the Yes 2014 total and the Tories holding all but 1 of their Scottish seats is no mandate at all for indyref2 and Boris if he wins a majority will correctly refuse one
0 -
The new intake of Tory MPs won't touch hunting with a barge pole.Sandpit said:
That’s fine. They’ll let a backbench bill amend it, if there’s a majority in the HoC to do so.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Manifesto costings document: (not sure why not published elsewhere)
https://order-order.com/2019/11/24/tory-manifesto-costings-document/0 -
You cant legislate for royal prerogative I believe, no new prerogative powers. Obviously that protects against a psycho with a landslide majority passing enabling act type legislationPhilip_Thompson said:
Can you not just legislate to restore the Royal Prerogative or legislate to recreate it as it was?Sandpit said:
Repealing FTPA is going to be a right pain in the arse, as the previous status quo (the Royal Prerogative) is difficult to return to once it’s been legislated away.IanB2 said:
I understood that they cant simply repeal it, but need to replace it with something.RobD said:Guardian reporting the Tories will get rid of FTPA.
Well, they've got my vote.
It’s going to take a lot of expert constitutional thinking to work out how to fix the problem, I’d guess that a House of Lords Committee will be tasked with finding a solution.
Create a new 5 year Parliament Act saying that Parliament is dissolved 5 years after the last election, but giving the PM legal authority to request an early dissolution.0 -
Did the SNP win a majority at 2016?Alistair said:
Given that the SNP got a mandate at 2016 they don't need one on the 12th.HYUFD said:The SNP on just 40%, 10% down on their 2015 total and 5% down on the Yes 2014 total and the Tories holding all but 1 of their Scottish seats is no mandate at all for indyref2 and Boris if he wins a majority will correctly refuse one
I seem to remember many saying that May didn't get a mandate at 2017 since she didn't get a majority.0 -
-
Its good to see this matter finally put to bed, now accepted as a permanent change alongside all the previously banned cruel sports.HYUFD said:
Rural areas are strongly Tory anyway, it is marginal suburban seats and medium sized towns the Tories need to win and they are anti huntingCorrectHorseBattery said:
Anyhow, the Tory party only played with the issue to get donations and helpers from the CA; they never really intended or expected to do anything about it.0 -
Is that Survation poll real? I can't find it anywhere0
-
The polls are fun but I'd loke to hear more from folk on the ground canvassing. Marquee Mark has been good but there's been precious little else so far. What does the silence mean?0
-
Strange thing for her to say. She must be aware of canvassing figures and not too confidentFloater said:0 -
Hmmmm it was tweeted by John Rentoul (of the Independent) as a poll with fieldwork 20 to 23 Nov for GMB who did the last survation. The tweet is now deleted! Maybe not ready for publication yet?CorrectHorseBattery said:Is that Survation poll real? I can't find it anywhere
0 -
Why not? For most of the electorate, it's just a big number, millions, billions, whatever. They think someone else is going to pay for it.Sandpit said:
Announcements that involve another £58bn in uncosted spending?
Sure, economists will mock it as unfunded, but they can be dismissed as "in the billionaires' pockets", "dark forces" or whatever.
0 -
But there's no reason you can't recreate via legislation how the Prerogative was used in the past is there?wooliedyed said:
You cant legislate for royal prerogative I believe, no new prerogative powers. Obviously that protects against a psycho with a landslide majority passing enabling act type legislationPhilip_Thompson said:
Can you not just legislate to restore the Royal Prerogative or legislate to recreate it as it was?Sandpit said:
Repealing FTPA is going to be a right pain in the arse, as the previous status quo (the Royal Prerogative) is difficult to return to once it’s been legislated away.IanB2 said:
I understood that they cant simply repeal it, but need to replace it with something.RobD said:Guardian reporting the Tories will get rid of FTPA.
Well, they've got my vote.
It’s going to take a lot of expert constitutional thinking to work out how to fix the problem, I’d guess that a House of Lords Committee will be tasked with finding a solution.
Create a new 5 year Parliament Act saying that Parliament is dissolved 5 years after the last election, but giving the PM legal authority to request an early dissolution.
An early election previously was called if the PM of the day requested one. Put that in as legislation, job done.0 -
AIUI no, you can’t legislate to restore a Royal Perogative that has been explicitly removed by an Act of Parliament. (Presumably to stop the Monarch stuffing Parliament).Philip_Thompson said:
Can you not just legislate to restore the Royal Prerogative or legislate to recreate it as it was?Sandpit said:
Repealing FTPA is going to be a right pain in the arse, as the previous status quo (the Royal Prerogative) is difficult to return to once it’s been legislated away.IanB2 said:
I understood that they cant simply repeal it, but need to replace it with something.RobD said:Guardian reporting the Tories will get rid of FTPA.
Well, they've got my vote.
It’s going to take a lot of expert constitutional thinking to work out how to fix the problem, I’d guess that a House of Lords Committee will be tasked with finding a solution.
Create a new 5 year Parliament Act saying that Parliament is dissolved 5 years after the last election, but giving the PM legal authority to request an early dissolution.
After the right constitutional mess that the FTPA caused, I’d want to see some serious thought given to how various scenarios might play out, before committing to a replacement.
The FTPA was designed by Nick Clegg, who wanted to stop the PM calling an election at a politically advantageous time and commit him to a five-year Parliament from 2010. Not that it helped him much, when his party ran scared of their achievements in the Coalition.0 -
So much for fully costed thenSandpit said:
Announcements that involve another £58bn in uncosted spending?CorrectHorseBattery said:
They are mad and bad.
The party of the Marxist and not the Jew.2 -
I am very happy today it has been binnedIanB2 said:
Its good to see this matter finally put to bed, now accepted as a permanent change alongside all the previously banned cruel sports.HYUFD said:
Rural areas are strongly Tory anyway, it is marginal suburban seats and medium sized towns the Tories need to win and they are anti huntingCorrectHorseBattery said:
Anyhow, the Tory party only played with the issue to get donations and helpers from the CA; they never really intended or expected to do anything about it.0 -
Royal prerogative is not under legislation, it's by convention and once legislated away u cant reimpose it (the convention no longer exists in law or in practice)Philip_Thompson said:
But there's no reason you can't recreate via legislation how the Prerogative was used in the past is there?wooliedyed said:
You cant legislate for royal prerogative I believe, no new prerogative powers. Obviously that protects against a psycho with a landslide majority passing enabling act type legislationPhilip_Thompson said:
Can you not just legislate to restore the Royal Prerogative or legislate to recreate it as it was?Sandpit said:
Repealing FTPA is going to be a right pain in the arse, as the previous status quo (the Royal Prerogative) is difficult to return to once it’s been legislated away.IanB2 said:
I understood that they cant simply repeal it, but need to replace it with something.RobD said:Guardian reporting the Tories will get rid of FTPA.
Well, they've got my vote.
It’s going to take a lot of expert constitutional thinking to work out how to fix the problem, I’d guess that a House of Lords Committee will be tasked with finding a solution.
Create a new 5 year Parliament Act saying that Parliament is dissolved 5 years after the last election, but giving the PM legal authority to request an early dissolution.
An early election previously was called if the PM of the day requested one. Put that in as legislation, job done.3 -
Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 41% (-1)
LAB: 30% (+2)
LDM: 15% (+1)
BXP: 5% (=)
GRN: 3% (=)
Via @Survation, 20-23 Nov.
Changes w/ 13-16 Nov.0 -
The polls seem to be settling around 40+ and 30 labourCorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
This is why Labour’s nationalisation plans on a ‘cost neutral’ basis are about as realistic as a bet on England to win an overseas Test;
National Grid and SSE move offshore over Labour plans
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-505362050 -
The inside story is that most of it came from Osborne.Sandpit said:
AIUI no, you can’t legislate to restore a Royal Perogative that has been explicitly removed by an Act of Parliament. (Presumably to stop the Monarch stuffing Parliament).Philip_Thompson said:
Can you not just legislate to restore the Royal Prerogative or legislate to recreate it as it was?Sandpit said:
Repealing FTPA is going to be a right pain in the arse, as the previous status quo (the Royal Prerogative) is difficult to return to once it’s been legislated away.IanB2 said:
I understood that they cant simply repeal it, but need to replace it with something.RobD said:Guardian reporting the Tories will get rid of FTPA.
Well, they've got my vote.
It’s going to take a lot of expert constitutional thinking to work out how to fix the problem, I’d guess that a House of Lords Committee will be tasked with finding a solution.
Create a new 5 year Parliament Act saying that Parliament is dissolved 5 years after the last election, but giving the PM legal authority to request an early dissolution.
After the right constitutional mess that the FTPA caused, I’d want to see some serious thought given to how various scenarios might play out, before committing to a replacement.
The FTPA was designed by Nick Clegg, who wanted to stop the PM calling an election at a politically advantageous time and commit him to a five-year Parliament from 2010. Not that it helped him much, when his party ran scared of their achievements in the Coalition.0 -
Karl Marx was a Jew.Floater said:
So much for fully costed thenSandpit said:
Announcements that involve another £58bn in uncosted spending?CorrectHorseBattery said:
They are mad and bad.
The party of the Marxist and not the Jew.-1 -
Not really. He's significantly ahead in the polls. Of course things can change, but at the moment the Tories are winning. Just being realistic.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Strange thing for her to say. She must be aware of canvassing figures and not too confidentFloater said:0 -
We will ensure we have updated and equal Parliamentary boundaries, making sure that every vote counts the same – a cornerstone of democracy.
Reducing to 600 quietly dropped.
We will make it easier for British expats to vote in Parliamentary elections, and get rid of the arbitrary 15-year limit on their voting rights.
and...
We will not proceed with the second stage of the Leveson Inquiry.
Page 48
https://assets-global.website-files.com/5da42e2cae7ebd3f8bde353c/5dda924905da587992a064ba_Conservative 2019 Manifesto.pdf1 -
And so it startsydoethur said:This is why Labour’s nationalisation plans on a ‘cost neutral’ basis are about as realistic as a bet on England to win an overseas Test;
National Grid and SSE move offshore over Labour plans
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-505362050 -
You wonder what implications that has for tax, even though they say none.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And so it startsydoethur said:This is why Labour’s nationalisation plans on a ‘cost neutral’ basis are about as realistic as a bet on England to win an overseas Test;
National Grid and SSE move offshore over Labour plans
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-505362050 -
RE: abolishing the FTPA. I believe this was in the Labour manifesto? (justified by some strange objection that it "props up weak governments")
0 -
Survation was a phone poll I think?
Will be interesting if this is the start of a trend or just temporary noise, Labour has got to get up to 34% and fast, that will start to cause some worries in the Tory camp.0 -
Her exact words were ‘as the polls stand at present’ she has to convince voters that there is no risk of a labour government, there never was and even less likely now. She’s been caught between labour being even more batshit crazy than in 17 and TBP effectively dropping out of the race.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Strange thing for her to say. She must be aware of canvassing figures and not too confidentFloater said:0 -
Yes but can you not legislate to recreate how the prerogative was exercised. IE get rid of the votes in Parliament and simply say the PM can request an early election?wooliedyed said:
Royal prerogative is not under legislation, it's by convention and once legislated away u cant reimpose it (the convention no longer exists in law or in practice)Philip_Thompson said:
But there's no reason you can't recreate via legislation how the Prerogative was used in the past is there?wooliedyed said:
You cant legislate for royal prerogative I believe, no new prerogative powers. Obviously that protects against a psycho with a landslide majority passing enabling act type legislationPhilip_Thompson said:
Can you not just legislate to restore the Royal Prerogative or legislate to recreate it as it was?Sandpit said:
Repealing FTPA is going to be a right pain in the arse, as the previous status quo (the Royal Prerogative) is difficult to return to once it’s been legislated away.IanB2 said:
I understood that they cant simply repeal it, but need to replace it with something.RobD said:Guardian reporting the Tories will get rid of FTPA.
Well, they've got my vote.
It’s going to take a lot of expert constitutional thinking to work out how to fix the problem, I’d guess that a House of Lords Committee will be tasked with finding a solution.
Create a new 5 year Parliament Act saying that Parliament is dissolved 5 years after the last election, but giving the PM legal authority to request an early dissolution.
An early election previously was called if the PM of the day requested one. Put that in as legislation, job done.0 -
If Labour can get it to 38/32 it becomes a lot more interesting.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 41% (-1)
LAB: 30% (+2)
LDM: 15% (+1)
BXP: 5% (=)
GRN: 3% (=)
Via @Survation, 20-23 Nov.
Changes w/ 13-16 Nov.0 -
He does try to keep such posts to a minimum though.kle4 said:
Interesting that they simply did not mention it at all.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Yes.NorthCadboll said:Just asking for a friend, has MalcolmG ever managed to make a posting on PB without being rude/using foul language/insulting fellow PBers who dont think the sun shines out of Nicola Sturgeon's arse [any or all of the above]?
1 -
The fact it has started should be a warning to everyone who thinks Corbyn is not going to devastate our economyydoethur said:
You wonder what implications that has for tax, even though they say none.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And so it startsydoethur said:This is why Labour’s nationalisation plans on a ‘cost neutral’ basis are about as realistic as a bet on England to win an overseas Test;
National Grid and SSE move offshore over Labour plans
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-505362050 -
The question is: will the Tory lead drop because Labour goes up, or because the Tory percentage goes down? This is currently showing both.numbertwelve said:
If Labour can get it to 38/32 it becomes a lot more interesting.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 41% (-1)
LAB: 30% (+2)
LDM: 15% (+1)
BXP: 5% (=)
GRN: 3% (=)
Via @Survation, 20-23 Nov.
Changes w/ 13-16 Nov.
Labour technically has a lot more voters they can take advantage of (if you believe the Tory vote is at a ceiling), I need to see the don't knows again.0 -
Energy companies already escaping the UK in fear of CorbynCorrectHorseBattery said:Survation was a phone poll I think?
Will be interesting if this is the start of a trend or just temporary noise, Labour has got to get up to 34% and fast, that will start to cause some worries in the Tory camp.
Should be a warning to all his cheer leaders1 -
Just back from the gym. How many extra tens of billions of public spending have Labour announced in the last couple of hours
On topic, if the Tories do get a majority next month then how do we all think Johnson might approach Indyref2? Presumably Sturgeon's demand for a vote next year will be turned down flat, but what do we reckon the response will be to another pro-independence majority in the next Scottish Parliament election?
The Scottish Tories are obviously heavily invested in holding the Union together, but I'm just wondering how bothered the English ones (and Johnson himself) actually are. If Scotland votes to go then Labour's main potential coalition partner is removed and the Conservative majority at Westminster increases by about 50.0 -
If Labour is seen as being out of the race, it makes it easier for remainers in both main parties to switchJohnLilburne said:
Not really. He's significantly ahead in the polls. Of course things can change, but at the moment the Tories are winning. Just being realistic.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Strange thing for her to say. She must be aware of canvassing figures and not too confidentFloater said:0 -
Good they aren't proceeding with the Leveson madness.1
-
Or the lead could stay the same, or go up!CorrectHorseBattery said:
The question is: will the Tory lead drop because Labour goes up, or because the Tory percentage goes down? This is currently showing both.numbertwelve said:
If Labour can get it to 38/32 it becomes a lot more interesting.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 41% (-1)
LAB: 30% (+2)
LDM: 15% (+1)
BXP: 5% (=)
GRN: 3% (=)
Via @Survation, 20-23 Nov.
Changes w/ 13-16 Nov.
Labour technically has a lot more voters they can take advantage of (if you believe the Tory vote is at a ceiling), I need to see the don't knows again.0 -
They then won multiple votes in the Scottish Parliament.Philip_Thompson said:
Did the SNP win a majority at 2016?Alistair said:
Given that the SNP got a mandate at 2016 they don't need one on the 12th.HYUFD said:The SNP on just 40%, 10% down on their 2015 total and 5% down on the Yes 2014 total and the Tories holding all but 1 of their Scottish seats is no mandate at all for indyref2 and Boris if he wins a majority will correctly refuse one
I seem to remember many saying that May didn't get a mandate at 2017 since she didn't get a majority.0 -
You've forgotten about Brexit already?Big_G_NorthWales said:
The fact it has started should be a warning to everyone who thinks Corbyn is not going to devastate our economyydoethur said:
You wonder what implications that has for tax, even though they say none.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And so it startsydoethur said:This is why Labour’s nationalisation plans on a ‘cost neutral’ basis are about as realistic as a bet on England to win an overseas Test;
National Grid and SSE move offshore over Labour plans
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-505362050 -
Indeed!RobD said:
Or the lead could stay the same, or go up!CorrectHorseBattery said:
The question is: will the Tory lead drop because Labour goes up, or because the Tory percentage goes down? This is currently showing both.numbertwelve said:
If Labour can get it to 38/32 it becomes a lot more interesting.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 41% (-1)
LAB: 30% (+2)
LDM: 15% (+1)
BXP: 5% (=)
GRN: 3% (=)
Via @Survation, 20-23 Nov.
Changes w/ 13-16 Nov.
Labour technically has a lot more voters they can take advantage of (if you believe the Tory vote is at a ceiling), I need to see the don't knows again.
Although for now I will stick with my view that the Tory ceiling in an actual election is around 43%.0 -
They've only gone and done a HYUFD.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
If Labour is seen as not being able to win, their may be some who fall into the crowd of "well they can't win but they'll be propped up by the Lib Dems so they won't be able to do any of their nutty plans". I wonder if this will have any impact, sounds like a pipe dream.IanB2 said:
If Labour is seen as being out of the race, it makes it easier for remainers in both main parties to switchJohnLilburne said:
Not really. He's significantly ahead in the polls. Of course things can change, but at the moment the Tories are winning. Just being realistic.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Strange thing for her to say. She must be aware of canvassing figures and not too confidentFloater said:0 -
If the SNP gain a majority in Holyrood in 2021 I would grant them the referendum as I am convinced when the Scots see the economic implications including a hard border from Berwick to Carlisle, loss of naval ship building contracts and the RAF from Lossiemouth, they will reject independenceBlack_Rook said:Just back from the gym. How many extra tens of billions of public spending have Labour announced in the last couple of hours
On topic, if the Tories do get a majority next month then how do we all think Johnson might approach Indyref2? Presumably Sturgeon's demand for a vote next year will be turned down flat, but what do we reckon the response will be to another pro-independence majority in the next Scottish Parliament election?
The Scottish Tories are obviously heavily invested in holding the Union together, but I'm just wondering how bothered the English ones (and Johnson himself) actually are. If Scotland votes to go then Labour's main potential coalition partner is removed and the Conservative majority at Westminster increases by about 50.0 -
We need the entrails of a sheep.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 41% (-1)
LAB: 30% (+2)
LDM: 15% (+1)
BXP: 5% (=)
GRN: 3% (=)
Via @Survation, 20-23 Nov.
Changes w/ 13-16 Nov.
I am going to be a nervous wreck no matter what any polls say. I genuinely believe that if Corbyn get a majority through the vagaries of our voting system, last minute Black Swan event, voters playing Russian Roulette by voting Labour to reduce a Tory majority and overshooting or Trump intervening then it will be the biggest political crisis since the second World War and will dwarf Brexit. I fully get that many will think that I'm overreacting. I was active on the Marxist left for many years in my youth and Corbyn & McDonnell I recognise as genuine fanatics. The LP manifesto is a horrible amalgam of various strains of barmy ideas like the ghosts of resolutions at student unions and LP fringe events in the '70s with a seasoning of modern identity politics.2 -
Re FTPA
A simple solution is simply to amend it so it does not require a 2/3 majority to dissolve Parliament, just a simple majority.
That way a PM leading a majority government can call an election when they like in practice.1 -
Very dangerousIanB2 said:
If Labour is seen as being out of the race, it makes it easier for remainers in both main parties to switchJohnLilburne said:
Not really. He's significantly ahead in the polls. Of course things can change, but at the moment the Tories are winning. Just being realistic.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Strange thing for her to say. She must be aware of canvassing figures and not too confidentFloater said:0 -
From 97 to 05 it felt like it was 32%. Feels like a long time ago now....CorrectHorseBattery said:
Indeed!RobD said:
Or the lead could stay the same, or go up!CorrectHorseBattery said:
The question is: will the Tory lead drop because Labour goes up, or because the Tory percentage goes down? This is currently showing both.numbertwelve said:
If Labour can get it to 38/32 it becomes a lot more interesting.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 41% (-1)
LAB: 30% (+2)
LDM: 15% (+1)
BXP: 5% (=)
GRN: 3% (=)
Via @Survation, 20-23 Nov.
Changes w/ 13-16 Nov.
Labour technically has a lot more voters they can take advantage of (if you believe the Tory vote is at a ceiling), I need to see the don't knows again.
Although for now I will stick with my view that the Tory ceiling in an actual election is around 43%.0 -
Lib Dems are not expecting a good election result from what I hear.IanB2 said:
If Labour is seen as being out of the race, it makes it easier for remainers in both main parties to switchJohnLilburne said:
Not really. He's significantly ahead in the polls. Of course things can change, but at the moment the Tories are winning. Just being realistic.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Strange thing for her to say. She must be aware of canvassing figures and not too confidentFloater said:0 -
Yes, I think all roads lead to that as the simplest answer.Gallowgate said:Re FTPA
A simple solution is simply to amend it so it does not require a 2/3 majority to dissolve Parliament, just a simple majority.
That way a PM leading a majority government can call an election when they like in practice.
Edit - The date of next election in any revised Bill will be interesting. If they win, the Tories might become winter election fans and shift it to December 2024.0 -
That wouldn't have prevented the recent paralysis in parliament.Gallowgate said:Re FTPA
A simple solution is simply to amend it so it does not require a 2/3 majority to dissolve Parliament, just a simple majority.
That way a PM leading a majority government can call an election when they like in practice.1 -
Also, watching Brexiteers lecture Labour on leaving debt to future generations is simply hilarious.
The irony must be lost on them since their policy will leave future generations poorer and weaker just to fulfill their xenophobic wet dream.2 -
Brexit is not on a par with Corbyn. I really do not care about brexit as much as I do in seeing Corbyn heavily defeatedIanB2 said:
You've forgotten about Brexit already?Big_G_NorthWales said:
The fact it has started should be a warning to everyone who thinks Corbyn is not going to devastate our economyydoethur said:
You wonder what implications that has for tax, even though they say none.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And so it startsydoethur said:This is why Labour’s nationalisation plans on a ‘cost neutral’ basis are about as realistic as a bet on England to win an overseas Test;
National Grid and SSE move offshore over Labour plans
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-505362050 -
I briefly suggested that, but the real problem is actually not majority governments, but minority governments being kept in power against their will.Gallowgate said:Re FTPA
A simple solution is simply to amend it so it does not require a 2/3 majority to dissolve Parliament, just a simple majority.
That way a PM leading a majority government can call an election when they like in practice.1 -
Equivalent to a rounding error in Labour's manifesto.CorrectHorseBattery said:1 -
Agreed. The 2/3 was a guarantee to the Liberal Democrats that they would not be trampled on(!) not a serious constitutional gambit. A majority would make things easier. That would also mean a government that had lost its majority could be evicted from office by an election without all this 14 day silliness.Gallowgate said:Re FTPA
A simple solution is simply to amend it so it does not require a 2/3 majority to dissolve Parliament, just a simple majority.
That way a PM leading a majority government can call an election when they like in practice.0 -
I think the whole point of repealing is so that there isn't a fixed date...Time_to_Leave said:
Yes, I think all roads lead to that as the simplest answer.Gallowgate said:Re FTPA
A simple solution is simply to amend it so it does not require a 2/3 majority to dissolve Parliament, just a simple majority.
That way a PM leading a majority government can call an election when they like in practice.
Edit - The date of next election in any revised Bill will be interesting. If they win, the Tories might become winter election fans and shift it to December 2024.0 -
SensibleGallowgate said:Re FTPA
A simple solution is simply to amend it so it does not require a 2/3 majority to dissolve Parliament, just a simple majority.
That way a PM leading a majority government can call an election when they like in practice.0 -
High Speed 2?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
It might have done considering it was only the 2/3 majority votes that failed and the simple majority 1 line bill that passed.RobD said:
That wouldn't have prevented the recent paralysis in parliament.Gallowgate said:Re FTPA
A simple solution is simply to amend it so it does not require a 2/3 majority to dissolve Parliament, just a simple majority.
That way a PM leading a majority government can call an election when they like in practice.
Regardless you can’t really put the genie back in the bottle. Parliamentary sovereignty and all that.0 -
Did that £100 billion include HS2?CorrectHorseBattery said:
If it didn’t explicitly, I think I can see where a biggish chunk of it would go.0 -
£350 million a week was an under estimate
https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/1198627938067001344?s=210 -
Yeah you can. Well, almost. A one-line bill saying parliament can only be dissolved by the sovereign by order in council or proclamation, with a provision for the maximum length of a parliament.Gallowgate said:
It might have done considering it was only the 2/3 majority votes that failed and the simple majority 1 line bill that passed.RobD said:
That wouldn't have prevented the recent paralysis in parliament.Gallowgate said:Re FTPA
A simple solution is simply to amend it so it does not require a 2/3 majority to dissolve Parliament, just a simple majority.
That way a PM leading a majority government can call an election when they like in practice.
Regardless you can’t really put the genie back in the bottle. Parliamentary sovereignty and all that.0 -
What's it in real terms?kjohnw1 said:£350 million a week was an under estimate
https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/1198627938067001344?s=210 -
HS2.CorrectHorseBattery said:
But the Manifesto does say they will force through the M4 improvements in south Wales. Do them no harm in Newport and Cardiff seats.1 -
You have to have a maximum length of Parliament though don’t you? Technically we always had a last possible date of five years after the last one.RobD said:
I think the whole point of repealing is so that there isn't a fixed date...Time_to_Leave said:
Yes, I think all roads lead to that as the simplest answer.Gallowgate said:Re FTPA
A simple solution is simply to amend it so it does not require a 2/3 majority to dissolve Parliament, just a simple majority.
That way a PM leading a majority government can call an election when they like in practice.
Edit - The date of next election in any revised Bill will be interesting. If they win, the Tories might become winter election fans and shift it to December 2024.
There again it would be fun to wind up Labour voters with the idea of a thousand year Tory reich.0 -
The bridge to NI of course.alex_ said:
High Speed 2?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
NopeMarqueeMark said:
HS2 is at most about £4bn/year so £20bn in a parliament.
The full cost is over 15+ years.0 -
Yeah, FTPA repealed the Septennial Act. So you are right that there would be a last possible date for an election, but not a fixed date for the election.Time_to_Leave said:
You have to have a maximum length of Parliament though don’t you? Technically where always had a last possible moment of five years time.RobD said:
I think the whole point of repealing is so that there isn't a fixed date...Time_to_Leave said:
Yes, I think all roads lead to that as the simplest answer.Gallowgate said:Re FTPA
A simple solution is simply to amend it so it does not require a 2/3 majority to dissolve Parliament, just a simple majority.
That way a PM leading a majority government can call an election when they like in practice.
Edit - The date of next election in any revised Bill will be interesting. If they win, the Tories might become winter election fans and shift it to December 2024.
There again it would be fun to wind up Labour voters with the idea of a thousand year Tory reich.0 -
I'm suspecting that it's not really "the economy" that you are concerned about.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Brexit is not on a par with Corbyn. I really do not care about brexit as much as I do in seeing Corbyn heavily defeatedIanB2 said:
You've forgotten about Brexit already?Big_G_NorthWales said:
The fact it has started should be a warning to everyone who thinks Corbyn is not going to devastate our economyydoethur said:
You wonder what implications that has for tax, even though they say none.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And so it startsydoethur said:This is why Labour’s nationalisation plans on a ‘cost neutral’ basis are about as realistic as a bet on England to win an overseas Test;
National Grid and SSE move offshore over Labour plans
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-505362051 -
A “solution” which quite spectacularly fails to address the recent problem.Gallowgate said:Re FTPA
A simple solution is simply to amend it so it does not require a 2/3 majority to dissolve Parliament, just a simple majority.
That way a PM leading a majority government can call an election when they like in practice.0 -
Boris Island Airport.Theuniondivvie said:
The bridge to NI of course.alex_ said:
High Speed 2?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
I have just seen Ed Davey give Adam Boulton the best interview of the campaign on Sky news. He ripped Boris a new a**hole and this interview should be played again and again for voters of all persuasions. In a couple of minutes it exposes precisely why Boris is unfit for public office.
Delighted that, at last, someone is not holding back on calling him a liar and shyster. Even Boulton did not disagree.1 -
We could revisit the timings though. I mean, once we’ve had an election the people will have spoken. If they’ve given the right answer, do we really need to trouble them again this century?RobD said:
Yeah, FTPA repealed the Septennial Act. So you are right that there would be a last possible date for an election, but not a fixed date for the election.Time_to_Leave said:
You have to have a maximum length of Parliament though don’t you? Technically where always had a last possible moment of five years time.RobD said:
I think the whole point of repealing is so that there isn't a fixed date...Time_to_Leave said:
Yes, I think all roads lead to that as the simplest answer.Gallowgate said:Re FTPA
A simple solution is simply to amend it so it does not require a 2/3 majority to dissolve Parliament, just a simple majority.
That way a PM leading a majority government can call an election when they like in practice.
Edit - The date of next election in any revised Bill will be interesting. If they win, the Tories might become winter election fans and shift it to December 2024.
There again it would be fun to wind up Labour voters with the idea of a thousand year Tory reich.0 -
In real terms Labour are screwed 😀CorrectHorseBattery said:
What's it in real terms?kjohnw1 said:£350 million a week was an under estimate
https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/1198627938067001344?s=21
0 -
Curses, look like YouGov . has taken down/rstricted access to it's 2017 MRP model results
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/ no longer goes map, just gets redirected to 2019 election polling0 -
The reality for Remainers is, if you want to stop Brexit you need Labour MPs to help you.
Their decision will be: do they hate the idea of a hard Brexit more or less than Labour being propped up by the Lib Dems.0 -
I don't think you're overreacting at all. We've all read about those Brexit panic stockpilers, right? That's me the morning after a Labour victory, loading up on wine, confectionery and decent quality bog roll whilst the contents of my bank account are still worth something.NorthofStoke said:
We need the entrails of a sheep.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 41% (-1)
LAB: 30% (+2)
LDM: 15% (+1)
BXP: 5% (=)
GRN: 3% (=)
Via @Survation, 20-23 Nov.
Changes w/ 13-16 Nov.
I am going to be a nervous wreck no matter what any polls say. I genuinely believe that if Corbyn get a majority through the vagaries of our voting system, last minute Black Swan event, voters playing Russian Roulette by voting Labour to reduce a Tory majority and overshooting or Trump intervening then it will be the biggest political crisis since the second World War and will dwarf Brexit. I fully get that many will think that I'm overreacting. I was active on the Marxist left for many years in my youth and Corbyn & McDonnell I recognise as genuine fanatics. The LP manifesto is a horrible amalgam of various strains of barmy ideas like the ghosts of resolutions at student unions and LP fringe events in the '70s with a seasoning of modern identity politics.
Keeping Labour as far away from the levers of power as possible is the first and the only priority right now.1
