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  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,193
    malcolmg said:

    "MUPPET"

    Which one? Fozzie?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846

    Why on earth has Johnson boxed himself in financially with this ridiculous pledge on taxes?

    a) Johnson never feels boxed in by any promise he has made and trusts himself to get away with breaking it if ever he needs to
    b) The promise leaves plenty of scope for increasing the tax take - most obviously by not applying inflation increases to allowances - or a hundred and one other cunning wheezes locked away in a Treasury filing cabinet
    c) It might actually come in handy as an excuse as to why he cant keep spending money on everything
  • Mr. Sandpit, yeah, but the people of Scotland can't be allowed to stand in the way of letting the people of Scotland leave the UK.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    Stocky said:

    malcolmg said:

    "MUPPET"

    Which one? Fozzie?

    The Great Gonzo
  • RobD said:

    11 point Survation gap is interesting but Labour are still stuck at 30%

    Updated the plot - https://imgur.com/WSe1Zil

    They need something to give them a kick. Perhaps a blatant bribe of 3 million women would do the trick? :p
    Those lines are starting to look pretty flat now.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Guardian reporting the Tories will get rid of FTPA.

    Well, they've got my vote. :D

    I understood that they cant simply repeal it, but need to replace it with something.
    Repealing FTPA is going to be a right pain in the arse, as the previous status quo (the Royal Prerogative) is difficult to return to once it’s been legislated away.

    It’s going to take a lot of expert constitutional thinking to work out how to fix the problem, I’d guess that a House of Lords Committee will be tasked with finding a solution.
  • Just asking for a friend, has MalcolmG ever managed to make a posting on PB without being rude/using foul language/insulting fellow PBers who dont think the sun shines out of Nicola Sturgeon's arse [any or all of the above]?

    Malc and I get on well notwithstanding I am a Welsh/Englishman married to a Scot both of us being avid unionists and conservatives
  • glwglw Posts: 9,899
    TimT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Trump has far higher approval ratings with Leavers than Remainers and it is most of the former voting Tory or Brexit Party now
    Trump can go f**k himself and the sooner he is gone the better.

    Please don't imply Leave voters like that orange turd.
    +1
    Add me to the list.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682
    Rural areas are strongly Tory anyway, it is marginal suburban seats and medium sized towns the Tories need to win and they are anti hunting
  • Just asking for a friend, has MalcolmG ever managed to make a posting on PB without being rude/using foul language/insulting fellow PBers who dont think the sun shines out of Nicola Sturgeon's arse [any or all of the above]?

    Yes.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    That’s fine. They’ll let a backbench bill amend it, if there’s a majority in the HoC to do so.
  • malcolmg said:

    Flashy5 said:

    It would be funny if the SNP dropped below 40% of the vote and got less than half the seats in Scotland - 29 seats.

    Wouldn't be great for that second referendum mandate, that.

    If 40% is a mandate for Bozo's Brexit deal then it should be sufficient for Indyref2.
    If they got less than half the seats and just over a third of the vote in Scotland then it really wouldn't be.
    They won the last Hollyrood election. They should get a referendum every time they do that if they have the votes. It’s for the Scots to decide whether that gets boring or wasteful.
    She's arguing for one next year (the next Scottish election isn't until May 2021) and wants to use this general election as a mandate for that.

    She was decidedly lukewarm about a sequel at the last Scottish election in May 2016.
    She won’t be leader in 2021.
    Keep trying Harry , someday someone will believe you
    I wish there was a market on her departure date to bet on it.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2019
    .
    kle4 said:
    Softest of soft ball question.
  • Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Guardian reporting the Tories will get rid of FTPA.

    Well, they've got my vote. :D

    I understood that they cant simply repeal it, but need to replace it with something.
    Repealing FTPA is going to be a right pain in the arse, as the previous status quo (the Royal Prerogative) is difficult to return to once it’s been legislated away.

    It’s going to take a lot of expert constitutional thinking to work out how to fix the problem, I’d guess that a House of Lords Committee will be tasked with finding a solution.
    Can you not just legislate to restore the Royal Prerogative or legislate to recreate it as it was?

    Create a new 5 year Parliament Act saying that Parliament is dissolved 5 years after the last election, but giving the PM legal authority to request an early dissolution.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    The SNP on just 40%, 10% down on their 2015 total and 5% down on the Yes 2014 total and the Tories holding all but 1 of their Scottish seats is no mandate at all for indyref2 and Boris if he wins a majority will correctly refuse one

    Given that the SNP got a mandate at 2016 they don't need one on the 12th.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484
    Sandpit said:

    That’s fine. They’ll let a backbench bill amend it, if there’s a majority in the HoC to do so.
    The new intake of Tory MPs won't touch hunting with a barge pole.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    Manifesto costings document: (not sure why not published elsewhere)
    https://order-order.com/2019/11/24/tory-manifesto-costings-document/
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited November 2019

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Guardian reporting the Tories will get rid of FTPA.

    Well, they've got my vote. :D

    I understood that they cant simply repeal it, but need to replace it with something.
    Repealing FTPA is going to be a right pain in the arse, as the previous status quo (the Royal Prerogative) is difficult to return to once it’s been legislated away.

    It’s going to take a lot of expert constitutional thinking to work out how to fix the problem, I’d guess that a House of Lords Committee will be tasked with finding a solution.
    Can you not just legislate to restore the Royal Prerogative or legislate to recreate it as it was?

    Create a new 5 year Parliament Act saying that Parliament is dissolved 5 years after the last election, but giving the PM legal authority to request an early dissolution.
    You cant legislate for royal prerogative I believe, no new prerogative powers. Obviously that protects against a psycho with a landslide majority passing enabling act type legislation
  • Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    The SNP on just 40%, 10% down on their 2015 total and 5% down on the Yes 2014 total and the Tories holding all but 1 of their Scottish seats is no mandate at all for indyref2 and Boris if he wins a majority will correctly refuse one

    Given that the SNP got a mandate at 2016 they don't need one on the 12th.
    Did the SNP win a majority at 2016?

    I seem to remember many saying that May didn't get a mandate at 2017 since she didn't get a majority.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    edited November 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Rural areas are strongly Tory anyway, it is marginal suburban seats and medium sized towns the Tories need to win and they are anti hunting
    Its good to see this matter finally put to bed, now accepted as a permanent change alongside all the previously banned cruel sports.

    Anyhow, the Tory party only played with the issue to get donations and helpers from the CA; they never really intended or expected to do anything about it.
  • Is that Survation poll real? I can't find it anywhere
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,163
    The polls are fun but I'd loke to hear more from folk on the ground canvassing. Marquee Mark has been good but there's been precious little else so far. What does the silence mean?
  • Floater said:
    Strange thing for her to say. She must be aware of canvassing figures and not too confident
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Is that Survation poll real? I can't find it anywhere

    Hmmmm it was tweeted by John Rentoul (of the Independent) as a poll with fieldwork 20 to 23 Nov for GMB who did the last survation. The tweet is now deleted! Maybe not ready for publication yet?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited November 2019
    Sandpit said:


    Announcements that involve another £58bn in uncosted spending?

    Why not? For most of the electorate, it's just a big number, millions, billions, whatever. They think someone else is going to pay for it.

    Sure, economists will mock it as unfunded, but they can be dismissed as "in the billionaires' pockets", "dark forces" or whatever.

  • Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Guardian reporting the Tories will get rid of FTPA.

    Well, they've got my vote. :D

    I understood that they cant simply repeal it, but need to replace it with something.
    Repealing FTPA is going to be a right pain in the arse, as the previous status quo (the Royal Prerogative) is difficult to return to once it’s been legislated away.

    It’s going to take a lot of expert constitutional thinking to work out how to fix the problem, I’d guess that a House of Lords Committee will be tasked with finding a solution.
    Can you not just legislate to restore the Royal Prerogative or legislate to recreate it as it was?

    Create a new 5 year Parliament Act saying that Parliament is dissolved 5 years after the last election, but giving the PM legal authority to request an early dissolution.
    You cant legislate for royal prerogative I believe, no new prerogative powers. Obviously that protects against a psycho with a landslide majority passing enabling act type legislation
    But there's no reason you can't recreate via legislation how the Prerogative was used in the past is there?

    An early election previously was called if the PM of the day requested one. Put that in as legislation, job done.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    edited November 2019

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Guardian reporting the Tories will get rid of FTPA.

    Well, they've got my vote. :D

    I understood that they cant simply repeal it, but need to replace it with something.
    Repealing FTPA is going to be a right pain in the arse, as the previous status quo (the Royal Prerogative) is difficult to return to once it’s been legislated away.

    It’s going to take a lot of expert constitutional thinking to work out how to fix the problem, I’d guess that a House of Lords Committee will be tasked with finding a solution.
    Can you not just legislate to restore the Royal Prerogative or legislate to recreate it as it was?

    Create a new 5 year Parliament Act saying that Parliament is dissolved 5 years after the last election, but giving the PM legal authority to request an early dissolution.
    AIUI no, you can’t legislate to restore a Royal Perogative that has been explicitly removed by an Act of Parliament. (Presumably to stop the Monarch stuffing Parliament).

    After the right constitutional mess that the FTPA caused, I’d want to see some serious thought given to how various scenarios might play out, before committing to a replacement.

    The FTPA was designed by Nick Clegg, who wanted to stop the PM calling an election at a politically advantageous time and commit him to a five-year Parliament from 2010. Not that it helped him much, when his party ran scared of their achievements in the Coalition.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Sandpit said:

    Announcements that involve another £58bn in uncosted spending?
    So much for fully costed then

    They are mad and bad.

    The party of the Marxist and not the Jew.
  • IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rural areas are strongly Tory anyway, it is marginal suburban seats and medium sized towns the Tories need to win and they are anti hunting
    Its good to see this matter finally put to bed, now accepted as a permanent change alongside all the previously banned cruel sports.

    Anyhow, the Tory party only played with the issue to get donations and helpers from the CA; they never really intended or expected to do anything about it.
    I am very happy today it has been binned
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited November 2019

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Guardian reporting the Tories will get rid of FTPA.

    Well, they've got my vote. :D

    I understood that they cant simply repeal it, but need to replace it with something.
    Repealing FTPA is going to be a right pain in the arse, as the previous status quo (the Royal Prerogative) is difficult to return to once it’s been legislated away.

    It’s going to take a lot of expert constitutional thinking to work out how to fix the problem, I’d guess that a House of Lords Committee will be tasked with finding a solution.
    Can you not just legislate to restore the Royal Prerogative or legislate to recreate it as it was?

    Create a new 5 year Parliament Act saying that Parliament is dissolved 5 years after the last election, but giving the PM legal authority to request an early dissolution.
    You cant legislate for royal prerogative I believe, no new prerogative powers. Obviously that protects against a psycho with a landslide majority passing enabling act type legislation
    But there's no reason you can't recreate via legislation how the Prerogative was used in the past is there?

    An early election previously was called if the PM of the day requested one. Put that in as legislation, job done.
    Royal prerogative is not under legislation, it's by convention and once legislated away u cant reimpose it (the convention no longer exists in law or in practice)
  • Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 41% (-1)
    LAB: 30% (+2)
    LDM: 15% (+1)
    BXP: 5% (=)
    GRN: 3% (=)

    Via @Survation, 20-23 Nov.
    Changes w/ 13-16 Nov.
  • The polls seem to be settling around 40+ and 30 labour
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,322
    This is why Labour’s nationalisation plans on a ‘cost neutral’ basis are about as realistic as a bet on England to win an overseas Test;

    National Grid and SSE move offshore over Labour plans
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50536205
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Guardian reporting the Tories will get rid of FTPA.

    Well, they've got my vote. :D

    I understood that they cant simply repeal it, but need to replace it with something.
    Repealing FTPA is going to be a right pain in the arse, as the previous status quo (the Royal Prerogative) is difficult to return to once it’s been legislated away.

    It’s going to take a lot of expert constitutional thinking to work out how to fix the problem, I’d guess that a House of Lords Committee will be tasked with finding a solution.
    Can you not just legislate to restore the Royal Prerogative or legislate to recreate it as it was?

    Create a new 5 year Parliament Act saying that Parliament is dissolved 5 years after the last election, but giving the PM legal authority to request an early dissolution.
    AIUI no, you can’t legislate to restore a Royal Perogative that has been explicitly removed by an Act of Parliament. (Presumably to stop the Monarch stuffing Parliament).

    After the right constitutional mess that the FTPA caused, I’d want to see some serious thought given to how various scenarios might play out, before committing to a replacement.

    The FTPA was designed by Nick Clegg, who wanted to stop the PM calling an election at a politically advantageous time and commit him to a five-year Parliament from 2010. Not that it helped him much, when his party ran scared of their achievements in the Coalition.
    The inside story is that most of it came from Osborne.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,322
    Floater said:

    Sandpit said:

    Announcements that involve another £58bn in uncosted spending?
    So much for fully costed then

    They are mad and bad.

    The party of the Marxist and not the Jew.
    Karl Marx was a Jew.
  • Floater said:
    Strange thing for her to say. She must be aware of canvassing figures and not too confident
    Not really. He's significantly ahead in the polls. Of course things can change, but at the moment the Tories are winning. Just being realistic.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited November 2019
    We will ensure we have updated and equal Parliamentary boundaries, making sure that every vote counts the same – a cornerstone of democracy.

    Reducing to 600 quietly dropped.

    We will make it easier for British expats to vote in Parliamentary elections, and get rid of the arbitrary 15-year limit on their voting rights.

    and...

    We will not proceed with the second stage of the Leveson Inquiry.

    Page 48

    https://assets-global.website-files.com/5da42e2cae7ebd3f8bde353c/5dda924905da587992a064ba_Conservative 2019 Manifesto.pdf
  • ydoethur said:

    This is why Labour’s nationalisation plans on a ‘cost neutral’ basis are about as realistic as a bet on England to win an overseas Test;

    National Grid and SSE move offshore over Labour plans
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50536205

    And so it starts
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,322

    ydoethur said:

    This is why Labour’s nationalisation plans on a ‘cost neutral’ basis are about as realistic as a bet on England to win an overseas Test;

    National Grid and SSE move offshore over Labour plans
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50536205

    And so it starts
    You wonder what implications that has for tax, even though they say none.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited November 2019
    RE: abolishing the FTPA. I believe this was in the Labour manifesto? (justified by some strange objection that it "props up weak governments")


  • Survation was a phone poll I think?

    Will be interesting if this is the start of a trend or just temporary noise, Labour has got to get up to 34% and fast, that will start to cause some worries in the Tory camp.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Floater said:
    Strange thing for her to say. She must be aware of canvassing figures and not too confident
    Her exact words were ‘as the polls stand at present’ she has to convince voters that there is no risk of a labour government, there never was and even less likely now. She’s been caught between labour being even more batshit crazy than in 17 and TBP effectively dropping out of the race.
  • Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Guardian reporting the Tories will get rid of FTPA.

    Well, they've got my vote. :D

    I understood that they cant simply repeal it, but need to replace it with something.
    Repealing FTPA is going to be a right pain in the arse, as the previous status quo (the Royal Prerogative) is difficult to return to once it’s been legislated away.

    It’s going to take a lot of expert constitutional thinking to work out how to fix the problem, I’d guess that a House of Lords Committee will be tasked with finding a solution.
    Can you not just legislate to restore the Royal Prerogative or legislate to recreate it as it was?

    Create a new 5 year Parliament Act saying that Parliament is dissolved 5 years after the last election, but giving the PM legal authority to request an early dissolution.
    You cant legislate for royal prerogative I believe, no new prerogative powers. Obviously that protects against a psycho with a landslide majority passing enabling act type legislation
    But there's no reason you can't recreate via legislation how the Prerogative was used in the past is there?

    An early election previously was called if the PM of the day requested one. Put that in as legislation, job done.
    Royal prerogative is not under legislation, it's by convention and once legislated away u cant reimpose it (the convention no longer exists in law or in practice)
    Yes but can you not legislate to recreate how the prerogative was exercised. IE get rid of the votes in Parliament and simply say the PM can request an early election?
  • Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 41% (-1)
    LAB: 30% (+2)
    LDM: 15% (+1)
    BXP: 5% (=)
    GRN: 3% (=)

    Via @Survation, 20-23 Nov.
    Changes w/ 13-16 Nov.

    If Labour can get it to 38/32 it becomes a lot more interesting.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,346
    kle4 said:

    Interesting that they simply did not mention it at all.

    Just asking for a friend, has MalcolmG ever managed to make a posting on PB without being rude/using foul language/insulting fellow PBers who dont think the sun shines out of Nicola Sturgeon's arse [any or all of the above]?

    Yes.
    He does try to keep such posts to a minimum though. :lol:
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    This is why Labour’s nationalisation plans on a ‘cost neutral’ basis are about as realistic as a bet on England to win an overseas Test;

    National Grid and SSE move offshore over Labour plans
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50536205

    And so it starts
    You wonder what implications that has for tax, even though they say none.
    The fact it has started should be a warning to everyone who thinks Corbyn is not going to devastate our economy
  • Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 41% (-1)
    LAB: 30% (+2)
    LDM: 15% (+1)
    BXP: 5% (=)
    GRN: 3% (=)

    Via @Survation, 20-23 Nov.
    Changes w/ 13-16 Nov.

    If Labour can get it to 38/32 it becomes a lot more interesting.
    The question is: will the Tory lead drop because Labour goes up, or because the Tory percentage goes down? This is currently showing both.

    Labour technically has a lot more voters they can take advantage of (if you believe the Tory vote is at a ceiling), I need to see the don't knows again.
  • Survation was a phone poll I think?

    Will be interesting if this is the start of a trend or just temporary noise, Labour has got to get up to 34% and fast, that will start to cause some worries in the Tory camp.

    Energy companies already escaping the UK in fear of Corbyn

    Should be a warning to all his cheer leaders
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Just back from the gym. How many extra tens of billions of public spending have Labour announced in the last couple of hours :smiley:

    On topic, if the Tories do get a majority next month then how do we all think Johnson might approach Indyref2? Presumably Sturgeon's demand for a vote next year will be turned down flat, but what do we reckon the response will be to another pro-independence majority in the next Scottish Parliament election?

    The Scottish Tories are obviously heavily invested in holding the Union together, but I'm just wondering how bothered the English ones (and Johnson himself) actually are. If Scotland votes to go then Labour's main potential coalition partner is removed and the Conservative majority at Westminster increases by about 50.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846

    Floater said:
    Strange thing for her to say. She must be aware of canvassing figures and not too confident
    Not really. He's significantly ahead in the polls. Of course things can change, but at the moment the Tories are winning. Just being realistic.
    If Labour is seen as being out of the race, it makes it easier for remainers in both main parties to switch
  • Good they aren't proceeding with the Leveson madness.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 41% (-1)
    LAB: 30% (+2)
    LDM: 15% (+1)
    BXP: 5% (=)
    GRN: 3% (=)

    Via @Survation, 20-23 Nov.
    Changes w/ 13-16 Nov.

    If Labour can get it to 38/32 it becomes a lot more interesting.
    The question is: will the Tory lead drop because Labour goes up, or because the Tory percentage goes down? This is currently showing both.

    Labour technically has a lot more voters they can take advantage of (if you believe the Tory vote is at a ceiling), I need to see the don't knows again.
    Or the lead could stay the same, or go up!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    The SNP on just 40%, 10% down on their 2015 total and 5% down on the Yes 2014 total and the Tories holding all but 1 of their Scottish seats is no mandate at all for indyref2 and Boris if he wins a majority will correctly refuse one

    Given that the SNP got a mandate at 2016 they don't need one on the 12th.
    Did the SNP win a majority at 2016?

    I seem to remember many saying that May didn't get a mandate at 2017 since she didn't get a majority.
    They then won multiple votes in the Scottish Parliament.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922
    alex_ said:

    RE: abolishing the FTPA. I believe this was in the Labour manifesto? (justified by some strange objection that it "props up weak governments")


    Yeah, looks like it's a slam dunk that FTPA will be pulled.

    Huzzah!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    This is why Labour’s nationalisation plans on a ‘cost neutral’ basis are about as realistic as a bet on England to win an overseas Test;

    National Grid and SSE move offshore over Labour plans
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50536205

    And so it starts
    You wonder what implications that has for tax, even though they say none.
    The fact it has started should be a warning to everyone who thinks Corbyn is not going to devastate our economy
    You've forgotten about Brexit already?
  • RobD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 41% (-1)
    LAB: 30% (+2)
    LDM: 15% (+1)
    BXP: 5% (=)
    GRN: 3% (=)

    Via @Survation, 20-23 Nov.
    Changes w/ 13-16 Nov.

    If Labour can get it to 38/32 it becomes a lot more interesting.
    The question is: will the Tory lead drop because Labour goes up, or because the Tory percentage goes down? This is currently showing both.

    Labour technically has a lot more voters they can take advantage of (if you believe the Tory vote is at a ceiling), I need to see the don't knows again.
    Or the lead could stay the same, or go up!
    Indeed!

    Although for now I will stick with my view that the Tory ceiling in an actual election is around 43%.
  • IanB2 said:

    Floater said:
    Strange thing for her to say. She must be aware of canvassing figures and not too confident
    Not really. He's significantly ahead in the polls. Of course things can change, but at the moment the Tories are winning. Just being realistic.
    If Labour is seen as being out of the race, it makes it easier for remainers in both main parties to switch
    If Labour is seen as not being able to win, their may be some who fall into the crowd of "well they can't win but they'll be propped up by the Lib Dems so they won't be able to do any of their nutty plans". I wonder if this will have any impact, sounds like a pipe dream.
  • Just back from the gym. How many extra tens of billions of public spending have Labour announced in the last couple of hours :smiley:

    On topic, if the Tories do get a majority next month then how do we all think Johnson might approach Indyref2? Presumably Sturgeon's demand for a vote next year will be turned down flat, but what do we reckon the response will be to another pro-independence majority in the next Scottish Parliament election?

    The Scottish Tories are obviously heavily invested in holding the Union together, but I'm just wondering how bothered the English ones (and Johnson himself) actually are. If Scotland votes to go then Labour's main potential coalition partner is removed and the Conservative majority at Westminster increases by about 50.

    If the SNP gain a majority in Holyrood in 2021 I would grant them the referendum as I am convinced when the Scots see the economic implications including a hard border from Berwick to Carlisle, loss of naval ship building contracts and the RAF from Lossiemouth, they will reject independence
  • Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 41% (-1)
    LAB: 30% (+2)
    LDM: 15% (+1)
    BXP: 5% (=)
    GRN: 3% (=)

    Via @Survation, 20-23 Nov.
    Changes w/ 13-16 Nov.

    We need the entrails of a sheep.

    I am going to be a nervous wreck no matter what any polls say. I genuinely believe that if Corbyn get a majority through the vagaries of our voting system, last minute Black Swan event, voters playing Russian Roulette by voting Labour to reduce a Tory majority and overshooting or Trump intervening then it will be the biggest political crisis since the second World War and will dwarf Brexit. I fully get that many will think that I'm overreacting. I was active on the Marxist left for many years in my youth and Corbyn & McDonnell I recognise as genuine fanatics. The LP manifesto is a horrible amalgam of various strains of barmy ideas like the ghosts of resolutions at student unions and LP fringe events in the '70s with a seasoning of modern identity politics.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    Re FTPA

    A simple solution is simply to amend it so it does not require a 2/3 majority to dissolve Parliament, just a simple majority.

    That way a PM leading a majority government can call an election when they like in practice.
  • IanB2 said:

    Floater said:
    Strange thing for her to say. She must be aware of canvassing figures and not too confident
    Not really. He's significantly ahead in the polls. Of course things can change, but at the moment the Tories are winning. Just being realistic.
    If Labour is seen as being out of the race, it makes it easier for remainers in both main parties to switch
    Very dangerous
  • RobD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 41% (-1)
    LAB: 30% (+2)
    LDM: 15% (+1)
    BXP: 5% (=)
    GRN: 3% (=)

    Via @Survation, 20-23 Nov.
    Changes w/ 13-16 Nov.

    If Labour can get it to 38/32 it becomes a lot more interesting.
    The question is: will the Tory lead drop because Labour goes up, or because the Tory percentage goes down? This is currently showing both.

    Labour technically has a lot more voters they can take advantage of (if you believe the Tory vote is at a ceiling), I need to see the don't knows again.
    Or the lead could stay the same, or go up!
    Indeed!

    Although for now I will stick with my view that the Tory ceiling in an actual election is around 43%.
    From 97 to 05 it felt like it was 32%. Feels like a long time ago now....
  • IanB2 said:

    Floater said:
    Strange thing for her to say. She must be aware of canvassing figures and not too confident
    Not really. He's significantly ahead in the polls. Of course things can change, but at the moment the Tories are winning. Just being realistic.
    If Labour is seen as being out of the race, it makes it easier for remainers in both main parties to switch
    Lib Dems are not expecting a good election result from what I hear.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited November 2019

    Re FTPA

    A simple solution is simply to amend it so it does not require a 2/3 majority to dissolve Parliament, just a simple majority.

    That way a PM leading a majority government can call an election when they like in practice.

    Yes, I think all roads lead to that as the simplest answer.

    Edit - The date of next election in any revised Bill will be interesting. If they win, the Tories might become winter election fans and shift it to December 2024.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922

    Re FTPA

    A simple solution is simply to amend it so it does not require a 2/3 majority to dissolve Parliament, just a simple majority.

    That way a PM leading a majority government can call an election when they like in practice.

    That wouldn't have prevented the recent paralysis in parliament.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    Also, watching Brexiteers lecture Labour on leaving debt to future generations is simply hilarious.

    The irony must be lost on them since their policy will leave future generations poorer and weaker just to fulfill their xenophobic wet dream.
  • IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    This is why Labour’s nationalisation plans on a ‘cost neutral’ basis are about as realistic as a bet on England to win an overseas Test;

    National Grid and SSE move offshore over Labour plans
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50536205

    And so it starts
    You wonder what implications that has for tax, even though they say none.
    The fact it has started should be a warning to everyone who thinks Corbyn is not going to devastate our economy
    You've forgotten about Brexit already?
    Brexit is not on a par with Corbyn. I really do not care about brexit as much as I do in seeing Corbyn heavily defeated
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Re FTPA

    A simple solution is simply to amend it so it does not require a 2/3 majority to dissolve Parliament, just a simple majority.

    That way a PM leading a majority government can call an election when they like in practice.

    I briefly suggested that, but the real problem is actually not majority governments, but minority governments being kept in power against their will.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922
    Equivalent to a rounding error in Labour's manifesto.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,322

    Re FTPA

    A simple solution is simply to amend it so it does not require a 2/3 majority to dissolve Parliament, just a simple majority.

    That way a PM leading a majority government can call an election when they like in practice.

    Agreed. The 2/3 was a guarantee to the Liberal Democrats that they would not be trampled on(!) not a serious constitutional gambit. A majority would make things easier. That would also mean a government that had lost its majority could be evicted from office by an election without all this 14 day silliness.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922

    Re FTPA

    A simple solution is simply to amend it so it does not require a 2/3 majority to dissolve Parliament, just a simple majority.

    That way a PM leading a majority government can call an election when they like in practice.

    Yes, I think all roads lead to that as the simplest answer.

    Edit - The date of next election in any revised Bill will be interesting. If they win, the Tories might become winter election fans and shift it to December 2024.
    I think the whole point of repealing is so that there isn't a fixed date...
  • Re FTPA

    A simple solution is simply to amend it so it does not require a 2/3 majority to dissolve Parliament, just a simple majority.

    That way a PM leading a majority government can call an election when they like in practice.

    Sensible
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    alex_ said:

    RE: abolishing the FTPA. I believe this was in the Labour manifesto? (justified by some strange objection that it "props up weak governments")

    Weak governments that Labour kept refusing to call a vote of confidence against?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    RobD said:

    Re FTPA

    A simple solution is simply to amend it so it does not require a 2/3 majority to dissolve Parliament, just a simple majority.

    That way a PM leading a majority government can call an election when they like in practice.

    That wouldn't have prevented the recent paralysis in parliament.
    It might have done considering it was only the 2/3 majority votes that failed and the simple majority 1 line bill that passed.

    Regardless you can’t really put the genie back in the bottle. Parliamentary sovereignty and all that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,322
    Did that £100 billion include HS2?

    If it didn’t explicitly, I think I can see where a biggish chunk of it would go.
  • £350 million a week was an under estimate
    https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/1198627938067001344?s=21
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922
    edited November 2019

    RobD said:

    Re FTPA

    A simple solution is simply to amend it so it does not require a 2/3 majority to dissolve Parliament, just a simple majority.

    That way a PM leading a majority government can call an election when they like in practice.

    That wouldn't have prevented the recent paralysis in parliament.
    It might have done considering it was only the 2/3 majority votes that failed and the simple majority 1 line bill that passed.

    Regardless you can’t really put the genie back in the bottle. Parliamentary sovereignty and all that.
    Yeah you can. Well, almost. A one-line bill saying parliament can only be dissolved by the sovereign by order in council or proclamation, with a provision for the maximum length of a parliament.
  • kjohnw1 said:

    £350 million a week was an under estimate
    https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/1198627938067001344?s=21

    What's it in real terms?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484
    edited November 2019
    HS2.

    But the Manifesto does say they will force through the M4 improvements in south Wales. Do them no harm in Newport and Cardiff seats.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited November 2019
    RobD said:

    Re FTPA

    A simple solution is simply to amend it so it does not require a 2/3 majority to dissolve Parliament, just a simple majority.

    That way a PM leading a majority government can call an election when they like in practice.

    Yes, I think all roads lead to that as the simplest answer.

    Edit - The date of next election in any revised Bill will be interesting. If they win, the Tories might become winter election fans and shift it to December 2024.
    I think the whole point of repealing is so that there isn't a fixed date...
    You have to have a maximum length of Parliament though don’t you? Technically we always had a last possible date of five years after the last one.

    There again it would be fun to wind up Labour voters with the idea of a thousand year Tory reich.
  • alex_ said:
    The bridge to NI of course.
  • Nope

    HS2 is at most about £4bn/year so £20bn in a parliament.

    The full cost is over 15+ years.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922

    RobD said:

    Re FTPA

    A simple solution is simply to amend it so it does not require a 2/3 majority to dissolve Parliament, just a simple majority.

    That way a PM leading a majority government can call an election when they like in practice.

    Yes, I think all roads lead to that as the simplest answer.

    Edit - The date of next election in any revised Bill will be interesting. If they win, the Tories might become winter election fans and shift it to December 2024.
    I think the whole point of repealing is so that there isn't a fixed date...
    You have to have a maximum length of Parliament though don’t you? Technically where always had a last possible moment of five years time.

    There again it would be fun to wind up Labour voters with the idea of a thousand year Tory reich.
    Yeah, FTPA repealed the Septennial Act. So you are right that there would be a last possible date for an election, but not a fixed date for the election.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    This is why Labour’s nationalisation plans on a ‘cost neutral’ basis are about as realistic as a bet on England to win an overseas Test;

    National Grid and SSE move offshore over Labour plans
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50536205

    And so it starts
    You wonder what implications that has for tax, even though they say none.
    The fact it has started should be a warning to everyone who thinks Corbyn is not going to devastate our economy
    You've forgotten about Brexit already?
    Brexit is not on a par with Corbyn. I really do not care about brexit as much as I do in seeing Corbyn heavily defeated
    I'm suspecting that it's not really "the economy" that you are concerned about.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509

    Re FTPA

    A simple solution is simply to amend it so it does not require a 2/3 majority to dissolve Parliament, just a simple majority.

    That way a PM leading a majority government can call an election when they like in practice.

    A “solution” which quite spectacularly fails to address the recent problem.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    alex_ said:
    The bridge to NI of course.
    Boris Island Airport.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    edited November 2019
    I have just seen Ed Davey give Adam Boulton the best interview of the campaign on Sky news. He ripped Boris a new a**hole and this interview should be played again and again for voters of all persuasions. In a couple of minutes it exposes precisely why Boris is unfit for public office.

    Delighted that, at last, someone is not holding back on calling him a liar and shyster. Even Boulton did not disagree.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Re FTPA

    A simple solution is simply to amend it so it does not require a 2/3 majority to dissolve Parliament, just a simple majority.

    That way a PM leading a majority government can call an election when they like in practice.

    Yes, I think all roads lead to that as the simplest answer.

    Edit - The date of next election in any revised Bill will be interesting. If they win, the Tories might become winter election fans and shift it to December 2024.
    I think the whole point of repealing is so that there isn't a fixed date...
    You have to have a maximum length of Parliament though don’t you? Technically where always had a last possible moment of five years time.

    There again it would be fun to wind up Labour voters with the idea of a thousand year Tory reich.
    Yeah, FTPA repealed the Septennial Act. So you are right that there would be a last possible date for an election, but not a fixed date for the election.
    We could revisit the timings though. I mean, once we’ve had an election the people will have spoken. If they’ve given the right answer, do we really need to trouble them again this century?
  • kjohnw1 said:

    £350 million a week was an under estimate
    https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/1198627938067001344?s=21

    What's it in real terms?
    In real terms Labour are screwed 😀
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Curses, look like YouGov . has taken down/rstricted access to it's 2017 MRP model results

    https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/ no longer goes map, just gets redirected to 2019 election polling
  • The reality for Remainers is, if you want to stop Brexit you need Labour MPs to help you.

    Their decision will be: do they hate the idea of a hard Brexit more or less than Labour being propped up by the Lib Dems.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 41% (-1)
    LAB: 30% (+2)
    LDM: 15% (+1)
    BXP: 5% (=)
    GRN: 3% (=)

    Via @Survation, 20-23 Nov.
    Changes w/ 13-16 Nov.

    We need the entrails of a sheep.

    I am going to be a nervous wreck no matter what any polls say. I genuinely believe that if Corbyn get a majority through the vagaries of our voting system, last minute Black Swan event, voters playing Russian Roulette by voting Labour to reduce a Tory majority and overshooting or Trump intervening then it will be the biggest political crisis since the second World War and will dwarf Brexit. I fully get that many will think that I'm overreacting. I was active on the Marxist left for many years in my youth and Corbyn & McDonnell I recognise as genuine fanatics. The LP manifesto is a horrible amalgam of various strains of barmy ideas like the ghosts of resolutions at student unions and LP fringe events in the '70s with a seasoning of modern identity politics.
    I don't think you're overreacting at all. We've all read about those Brexit panic stockpilers, right? That's me the morning after a Labour victory, loading up on wine, confectionery and decent quality bog roll whilst the contents of my bank account are still worth something.

    Keeping Labour as far away from the levers of power as possible is the first and the only priority right now.
This discussion has been closed.