I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Will the question include the information that it will cost the public an extra £58 billion in uncosted borrowing and / or taxes? Because that seems like a relevant piece of context, no?
Are there some workings behind the £58bn?
Number of women affected times the average amount of compensation.
Wow thanks for that insight!
I was rather wondering if anyone has the stats on numbers impacted and avereage amount per person.
Might we see the biggest gender divide this election?
Always interesting at how much more the young voter is pro Labour than the male one.
Labour are about to test that theory to destruction in the 25-34 age range unless they u-turn on the £58bn. I haven't seen my non-politically inclined friends this annoyed by a single policy in a very long time. Until now they just thought Corbyn was a joke with his free broadband and oddball ideas, now they think he's going to tax all of them to pay for older wealthy women who want to retire early.
Scanned the Conservative manifesto. Lots of wriggle room in most of it but emphatic that they will scrap the Fixed Term Parliament Act. That should get a lot of thumbs ups on here.
If they get a decent majority why would they do that? It's a guaranteed 5 years
Well, 33.3% of the time, maybe.
The average parliamentary term prior to the FTPA was far closer to five years than it has been since the Act was introduced...
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
He's an interesting one to watch for sure. He seems quite cynical about the polls in general, probably because of how much he was ridiculed last time.
Aren't we due another Survation poll or have I missed one this weekend?
One was leaked today, Labour closing the gap by one point, to 30, Tories on 41
It seems to have been pulled from Britain Elects . Could it be a fake poll or is it correct but just leaked . Do we have confirmation yet.
I would assume it's correct, I saw it quoted in the NY Times. The gap has closed by 3 points I believe, from 14 to 11pp. The former always seemed a little high from Survation. Full tables normally seem to be available on Mondays, I expect to update my model tomorrow.
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Will the question include the information that it will cost the public an extra £58 billion in uncosted borrowing and / or taxes? Because that seems like a relevant piece of context, no?
Are there some workings behind the £58bn?
Number of women affected times the average amount of compensation.
Wow thanks for that insight!
I was rather wondering if anyone has the stats on numbers impacted and avereage amount per person.
Might we see the biggest gender divide this election?
Always interesting at how much more the young voter is pro Labour than the male one.
Labour are about to test that theory to destruction in the 25-34 age range unless they u-turn on the £58bn. I haven't seen my non-politically inclined friends this annoyed by a single policy in a very long time. Until now they just thought Corbyn was a joke with his free broadband and oddball ideas, now they think he's going to tax all of them to pay for older wealthy women who want to retire early.
I think most of that range as so solidly Labour they won't be going anywhere, which is why they feel able to make such an unfair policy in the first place.
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
He's an interesting one to watch for sure. He seems quite cynical about the polls in general, probably because of how much he was ridiculed last time.
Aren't we due another Survation poll or have I missed one this weekend?
One was leaked today, Labour closing the gap by one point, to 30, Tories on 41
It seems to have been pulled from Britain Elects . Could it be a fake poll or is it correct but just leaked . Do we have confirmation yet.
I would assume it's correct, I saw it quoted in the NY Times. The gap has closed by 3 points I believe, from 14 to 11pp. The former always seemed a little high from Survation. Full tables normally seem to be available on Mondays, I expect to update my model tomorrow.
I added it to ELBOW (upthread). A bumper week with 13 polls including Survation.
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
He's an interesting one to watch for sure. He seems quite cynical about the polls in general, probably because of how much he was ridiculed last time.
Aren't we due another Survation poll or have I missed one this weekend?
One was leaked today, Labour closing the gap by one point, to 30, Tories on 41
It seems to have been pulled from Britain Elects . Could it be a fake poll or is it correct but just leaked . Do we have confirmation yet.
I would assume it's correct, I saw it quoted in the NY Times. The gap has closed by 3 points I believe, from 14 to 11pp. The former always seemed a little high from Survation. Full tables normally seem to be available on Mondays, I expect to update my model tomorrow.
It came from Rentaul I think. Suspect he accidentally broke an embargo - he’d otherwise have corrected it.
Scanned the Conservative manifesto. Lots of wriggle room in most of it but emphatic that they will scrap the Fixed Term Parliament Act. That should get a lot of thumbs ups on here.
If they get a decent majority why would they do that? It's a guaranteed 5 years
Well, 33.3% of the time, maybe.
The average parliamentary term prior to the FTPA was far closer to five years than it has been since the Act was introduced...
True enough, although that's due to parliamentary arithmetic, so the actual effect of the FPTA on that is questionable. If anything the FPTA has ensured the average term is longer than it would otherwise have been since, its meant our politicians kept governments with no effect means of operating in place.
I know, they seem small in comparison to Labour's trillion pound bill, but it's still a lot of money.
Do you honestly think potholes deserve more money than childcare though?
As a childless singleton that doesn't drive I don't care about either. But anybody claiming to be green should oppose both subsiding care pollution and over population.
I personally think we should be encouraging the use of public transport as much as possible and phasing out cars entirely - that should be the ultimate goal IMHO
Not a fan of electric cars?
They're better than petrol and diesel cars - and if there is no reasonable public transport they seem like a good compromise. But fundamentally we need to transition away from private transport.
And rely on the State anytime we want to travel. Marvellous.
Plus the state knowing exactly where you are going all the time. Spooky!
Point of order - based on my trains into London, knowing I’ve caught one tells you very little little about either where I am or where I am going.
Are you sure your Trainline app doesn't tell Google?
No that only tells you where I should be and where I’m meant to be going.
"I'll tell you a riddle. You're waiting for a train, a train that will take you far away. You know where you hope this train will take you, but you don't know for sure. But it doesn't matter. How can it not matter to you where the train will take you?"
[swaggering] Man, I've been on all of National Rail routes in England & Wales save for weekend-only stuff like Dale Rail and the Stockport-Guide Bridge (but I have done the Gainsborough-Brigg line and Crediton-Okehampton)!
In Scotland, done all of Scotrail except for Inverness to Aberdeen, Inverness to Kyle and Dingwall to Wick/Thurso.
Scanned the Conservative manifesto. Lots of wriggle room in most of it but emphatic that they will scrap the Fixed Term Parliament Act. That should get a lot of thumbs ups on here.
If they get a decent majority why would they do that? It's a guaranteed 5 years
Well, 33.3% of the time, maybe.
The average parliamentary term prior to the FTPA was far closer to five years than it has been since the Act was introduced...
True enough, although that's due to parliamentary arithmetic, so the actual effect of the FPTA on that is questionable. If anything the FPTA has ensured the average term is longer than it would otherwise have been since, its meant our politicians kept governments with no effect means of operating in place.
In the game of election timing it hands the advantage to the opposition instead of the incumbent.
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Will the question include the information that it will cost the public an extra £58 billion in uncosted borrowing and / or taxes? Because that seems like a relevant piece of context, no?
Are there some workings behind the £58bn?
Number of women affected times the average amount of compensation.
Wow thanks for that insight!
I was rather wondering if anyone has the stats on numbers impacted and avereage amount per person.
Might we see the biggest gender divide this election?
Always interesting at how much more the young voter is pro Labour than the male one.
Labour are about to test that theory to destruction in the 25-34 age range unless they u-turn on the £58bn. I haven't seen my non-politically inclined friends this annoyed by a single policy in a very long time. Until now they just thought Corbyn was a joke with his free broadband and oddball ideas, now they think he's going to tax all of them to pay for older wealthy women who want to retire early.
I think most of that range as so solidly Labour they won't be going anywhere, which is why they feel able to make such an unfair policy in the first place.
Yes, the Nick Timothy thought the same about old people and decided to introduce the idiotic dementia tax. That turned out extremely well.
I know, they seem small in comparison to Labour's trillion pound bill, but it's still a lot of money.
Do you honestly think potholes deserve more money than childcare though?
As a childless singleton that doesn't drive I don't care about either. But anybody claiming to be green should oppose both subsiding care pollution and over population.
I personally think we should be encouraging the use of public transport as much as possible and phasing out cars entirely - that should be the ultimate goal IMHO
Not a fan of electric cars?
They're better than petrol and diesel cars - and if there is no reasonable public transport they seem like a good compromise. But fundamentally we need to transition away from private transport.
And rely on the State anytime we want to travel. Marvellous.
Plus the state knowing exactly where you are going all the time. Spooky!
Point of order - based on my trains into London, knowing I’ve caught one tells you very little little about either where I am or where I am going.
Are you sure your Trainline app doesn't tell Google?
No that only tells you where I should be and where I’m meant to be going.
"I'll tell you a riddle. You're waiting for a train, a train that will take you far away. You know where you hope this train will take you, but you don't know for sure. But it doesn't matter. How can it not matter to you where the train will take you?"
[swaggering] Man, I've been on all of National Rail routes in England & Wales save for weekend-only stuff like Dale Rail and the Stockport-Guide Bridge (but I have done the Gainsborough-Brigg line and Crediton-Okehampton)!
In Scotland, done all of Scotrail except for Inverness to Aberdeen, Inverness to Kyle and Dingwall to Wick/Thurso.
Sunday 8 Dec - Sunday 22 Dec The period is likely to begin on the cold side for most regions, with wintry showers at times in the north, and perhaps over high ground in the south. Widespread frosts and ice are also likely. There looks to be a change around mid-month to milder conditions, although the timing is very uncertain.
What could possibly go wrong with a December election?
1918?
1923?
1923 was in a mild interlude after a snowy November.
It would be bad luck to have snow affect the vote, but it is more likely in December than in May.
Sunday 8 Dec - Sunday 22 Dec The period is likely to begin on the cold side for most regions, with wintry showers at times in the north, and perhaps over high ground in the south. Widespread frosts and ice are also likely. There looks to be a change around mid-month to milder conditions, although the timing is very uncertain.
What could possibly go wrong with a December election?
1918?
1923?
6th December 1923 might not be a good template for the Tories
I know, they seem small in comparison to Labour's trillion pound bill, but it's still a lot of money.
Do you honestly think potholes deserve more money than childcare though?
As a childless singleton that doesn't drive I don't care about either. But anybody claiming to be green should pollution and over population.
I personally think we should be encouraging the use of public transport as much as possible and phasing out cars entirely - that should be the ultimate goal IMHO
Not a fan of electric cars?
They're better than petrol and diesel cars - and if there is no reasonable public transport they seem like a good compromise. But fundamentally we need to transition away from private transport.
And rely on the State anytime we want to travel. Marvellous.
Plus the state knowing exactly where you are going all the time. Spooky!
Point of order - based on my trains into London, knowing I’ve caught one tells you very little little about either where I am or where I am going.
Are you sure your Trainline app doesn't tell Google?
No that only tells you where I should be and where I’m meant to be going.
"I'll tell you a riddle. You're waiting for a train, a train that will take you far away. You know where you hope this train will take you, but you don't know for sure. But it doesn't matter. How can it not matter to you where the train will take you?"
[swaggering] Man, I've been on all of National Rail routes in England & Wales save for weekend-only stuff like Dale Rail and the Stockport-Guide Bridge (but I have done the Gainsborough-Brigg line and Crediton-Okehampton)!
In Scotland, done all of Scotrail except for Inverness to Aberdeen, Inverness to Kyle and Dingwall to Wick/Thurso.
Have you done all the Cornish branch lines? They’re fabulously quaint.
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Will the question include the information that it will cost the public an extra £58 billion in uncosted borrowing and / or taxes? Because that seems like a relevant piece of context, no?
Are there some workings behind the £58bn?
Number of women affected times the average amount of compensation.
Wow thanks for that insight!
I was rather wondering if anyone has the stats on numbers impacted and avereage amount per person.
Might we see the biggest gender divide this election?
Always interesting at how much more the young voter is pro Labour than the male one.
Labour are about to test that theory to destruction in the 25-34 age range unless they u-turn on the £58bn. I haven't seen my non-politically inclined friends this annoyed by a single policy in a very long time. Until now they just thought Corbyn was a joke with his free broadband and oddball ideas, now they think he's going to tax all of them to pay for older wealthy women who want to retire early.
I think most of that range as so solidly Labour they won't be going anywhere, which is why they feel able to make such an unfair policy in the first place.
Yes, the Nick Timothy thought the same about old people and decided to introduce the idiotic dementia tax. That turned out extremely well.
He suggested it, May decided.
And you're right, sometimes a policy will get such a push back, but I don't think this one will, for all I am very mad about it. To who will Labour inclined voters mad about it go? The LDs are offering the same thing in their manifesto, though I've not heard what the amount would be suggested to be, presumably the same. The Greens' plan is more focused on their Universal Basic Income idea with a focus on the WASPI women, but promises additional ways to compensate them as well. BXP promise to review the position of those women too.
So are young people who were going to turn out for Labour not going to turn out for them on this issue, when the Jezziah is busy saying what a moral duty it is?
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Anyone who believes an unfunded £58bn pledge made after the manifesto was published should be too thick to vote.
Anyone who believes 350m for the NHS should be too thick to vote.
Rather slow and nothing like as good as the first two.
Wilson and Heath are good though. The episodes slow and tedious, except Aberfan.
The trouble is probably that as we come up to date, the writers lose historical perspective and start including all sorts of trivial incidents that they happen to remember. We have seen this with other series too.
It's not just that. It's the casting.
Olivia Coleman gets better as the series goes on but you still know it's her.
And Helena Bonham-Carter is just Helena Bonham-Carter, as always. You're never convinced for a second she's Margaret.
Having said that, Tobias Menzies is superb as Philip.
The casting is not so good, but the writing has been bad. I wondered whether part of it was that HMQ is now comfortable in her role and so that element of narrative tension is completely gone. I think the balance between the family story and the national story has been all wrong. If you compare the episode with the killer London smog with the one with the miners dispute and they don't properly resolve the story of the dispute with the miners.
So it looks like they've put more emphasis on the personal side of the story when that has become less interesting.
Back to betting rather than the bear-pit for a moment.
I'm still sitting on my BUY of Conservative seats at 325 - should I cash out now and take a reasonable profit or should I stick it out? I think 360-380 is the range and I'd prefer more than 380 for obvious reasons - might happen but less certain than I was.
Looking at the election battles in East London, I can back Labour to win East Ham at 1/100 with Paddy and Betfair, not a bad bet and if you have £100k lying around and you want to have £101k on 13/12 it's as much a certainty as anything in this life.
The three seats which interest me in my neck of the woods are as follows:
Dagenham & Rainham: - Jon Cruddas is defending a majority of 4,652 and the Conservatives need a 5% swing which is right on the mark of the polls. The Tories are marginally favourites and you can bet 9/10 with Bet365 while Labour are Evens with Sky Bet which looks tempting. Many firms have both parties odds on suggesting this is going to be very close. For now, I'll stay out.
Ilford South: Mike Gapes held for Labour last time with a majority of 31.647 but he has defected to and is running as a Change UK - TIG candidate. He is on offer at 3s generally with Labour at 1/5. It's my experience MPs have an exaggerated view of their "personal" vote and I can't see Gapes holding this seat - indeed, I think he'll finish third. Labour at 1/5 looks a cracking bet.
Ilford North: Against the run of play, this was a rare Conservative loss in 2015 when Wes Streeting got home by 589 votes. Despite no UKIP candidate in 2017, Streeting stretched his majority to nearly 10,000. There is a BXP candidate this time and Labour are 1/5 with the Conservatives at 3s.
I simply can't understand how Labour are 1/5 in both Ilford seats - both prices are absurd. Labour should be 1/20 to hold Ilford South and shouldn't even be favourites to hold North.
I don't like betting odds on but the 1/5 for Labour to hold South is very tempting while the 3/1 for the Conservatives to take North is also worth a punt.
You think there is a chance of the Conservatives gaining Ilford North ???
I really can't see how they can overturn a near 10k majority in a seat which is moving demographically away from them.
You're right about Ilford South though.
Ilford South is safe for Labour, despite Gapes. Gapes wasn’t hugely popular with many Asian voters there even when he was in Labour.
I reckon Wes is safe in Ilford North. Ongoing demographic change there, plus he has built quite a profile, and is seen as anti Corbyn. I doubt the Tories will get that close.
As a childless singleton that doesn't drive I don't care about either. But anybody claiming to be green should pollution and over population.
I personally think we should be encouraging the use of public transport as much as possible and phasing out cars entirely - that should be the ultimate goal IMHO
Not a fan of electric cars?
They're better than petrol and diesel cars - and if there is no reasonable public transport they seem like a good compromise. But fundamentally we need to transition away from private transport.
And rely on the State anytime we want to travel. Marvellous.
Plus the state knowing exactly where you are going all the time. Spooky!
Point of order - based on my trains into London, knowing I’ve caught one tells you very little little about either where I am or where I am going.
Are you sure your Trainline app doesn't tell Google?
No that only tells you where I should be and where I’m meant to be going.
"I'll tell you a riddle. You're waiting for a train, a train that will take you far away. You know where you hope this train will take you, but you don't know for sure. But it doesn't matter. How can it not matter to you where the train will take you?"
[swaggering] Man, I've been on all of National Rail routes in England & Wales save for weekend-only stuff like Dale Rail and the Stockport-Guide Bridge (but I have done the Gainsborough-Brigg line and Crediton-Okehampton)!
In Scotland, done all of Scotrail except for Inverness to Aberdeen, Inverness to Kyle and Dingwall to Wick/Thurso.
Have you done all the Cornish branch lines? They’re fabulously quaint.
Perranwell. Menheniot. Luxulyan!
Yes I have, Sean, er I mean Byronic. Even did the full reverse into Coombe Junction Halt.
Comments
The average parliamentary term prior to the FTPA was far closer to five years than it has been since the Act was introduced...
In Scotland, done all of Scotrail except for Inverness to Aberdeen, Inverness to Kyle and Dingwall to Wick/Thurso.
If the Tories can flip Rother Valley, then LAB are going to get rinsed in the North.
It would be bad luck to have snow affect the vote, but it is more likely in December than in May.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1923_United_Kingdom_general_election
Perranwell. Menheniot. Luxulyan!
And you're right, sometimes a policy will get such a push back, but I don't think this one will, for all I am very mad about it. To who will Labour inclined voters mad about it go? The LDs are offering the same thing in their manifesto, though I've not heard what the amount would be suggested to be, presumably the same. The Greens' plan is more focused on their Universal Basic Income idea with a focus on the WASPI women, but promises additional ways to compensate them as well. BXP promise to review the position of those women too.
So are young people who were going to turn out for Labour not going to turn out for them on this issue, when the Jezziah is busy saying what a moral duty it is?
So it looks like they've put more emphasis on the personal side of the story when that has become less interesting.
Corbyn has v little appeal in places like Rawmarsh and Rotherham.
The 'Boris is a bit of an idiot, but I quite like him' vote might see the Tories over the line.
I reckon Wes is safe in Ilford North. Ongoing demographic change there, plus he has built quite a profile, and is seen as anti Corbyn. I doubt the Tories will get that close.