politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest Ipsos MORI government satisfaction ratings are wors
Comments
-
Barnesian.....I'm clinging on to your every word comrade....Barnesian said:
The vote is very unevenly distributed. There are lumps of SNP and LD concentrations and piles of redundant votes in safe Tory seats. The quoted lead is a single metric of the national Tory lead over Labour. It is not reliable in this strange election.kle4 said:
Still no majority on 11.4% lead? Blimey that's rough for FPTP.Barnesian said:Effect all five polls tonight;
Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
LD 15.3 (-1.1)
BXP 7.5 (-0.9)
Seats
Con 324 (+5)
Lab 221 (-3)
LD 32 (-2)
But dyor or use your own heuristics. I'm not trying to persuade anyone. I'm just sharing the result of a detailed constituency model that doesn't just use simplistic swings or top down rules of thumb and tries to model the lumpiness of the votes and tactical voting.
0 -
Here it is. Happy birthday as well!Sunil_Prasannan said:
BMG? Sorry, seem to have missed that in all of this evening's, er, "excitement".Andy_JS said:Averages of the 5 polls tonight including BMG:
Con 42.4%
Lab 29.6%
LD 14.0%
BRX 6.0%
Averages without BMG:
Con 43.8%
Lab 29.8%
LD 13.5%
BRX 5.3%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/11958078364853698560 -
From the reviews I've heard it should be avoided because its not a very good film. What did you think?kle4 said:BTW, people who are easily triggered should avoid the film Last Christmas due to some Brexit references in it.
0 -
The Barnesian model took over that role this year. Tonights polls mean a minority government. 😂FrancisUrquhart said:Isn't this normally the time in the evening when Justin pops up and tells us they are actually good polls for Labour?
0 -
Nokle4 said:
Bookies won't pay out on that though!Barnesian said:
That's an effective majority of six I think.Casino_Royale said:
Still two short, eh? 😉Barnesian said:Effect all five polls tonight;
Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
LD 15.3 (-1.1)
BXP 7.5 (-0.9)
Seats
Con 324 (+5)
Lab 221 (-3)
LD 32 (-2)
0 -
While the word of a Tory canvasser can hardly be taken as gospel even accepting he does actually mention the bad reception being got too, how confident can we be that there is such a Wollaston personal vote?alb1on said:
Totnes is still very much on the table due to Wollaston's personal vote (regardless of marqueemark's attempts to deny it).Brom said:Bit rich of the Guardian to say all 3 constituency polls are tight. Fair to say even if Finchley isn’t on the money that Luciana Berger is a gonner. Kensington is a real 3 way marginal if Labour have a surge and then Wimbledon looks 50/50 really, though I suppose if Boris was to lose any MP then Hammond would be near the top of the list!
I think at this stage Lib Dem potential England gains from the Tories look like St Albans, Richmond, Guildford, South Cambs, Putney, Lewes, Winchester, Cheltenham. Wokingham, Finchley and Totnes are probably off the table but there are bound to be a few others I’ve overlooked like Hazel Grove or Wells. But primarily they are in the South East and the ceiling looks like 10-12.
0 -
I do not know what your comment means.RochdalePioneers said:
^ Thisfelix said:I have been deeply ashamed of the many Labour moderate MP:s who hate JC but have gone completely silent since the calling of the GE as they campaign to let him get his hands on power. If the polls stay roughly the same I wonder if they maight gain some courage and finally if belatedly speak up. LOtherwise frankly they all fully deserve to sink without trace alongside him.
0 -
Before emailing mps about something jew relatedFrancisUrquhart said:Isn't this normally the time in the evening when Justin pops up and tells us they are actually good polls for Labour?
1 -
Clinton and JFK were creepy but they didn't openly admit to sexual assault. Nor comment on the future breast size of their baby daughters.IshmaelZ said:
And Trump is probably only the third creepiest pervert in the White House in my lifetime, whereas the UK throne has been unblemished throughout.Casino_Royale said:
Nah, there have been tossers in the line to the throne since time immemorial.TheScreamingEagles said:I was wrong, Prince Charles becoming King will not be the best thing to happen to the Republican cause, it is this interview with Prince Andrew.
0 -
Glad to hear you are (apparently) on the end FTFysics_Teacher said:Speaking of interesting medical conditions, can I recommend the Pneumonia Diet? I lost half a stone in four days.
This was helped by the hospital food: not that it was bad, but potion control has never been my strong suite.0 -
Thanks, I am new here but I am sure I'll fit right in. I had some kind of log in bug, and a new start seemed the simplest fix.Benpointer said:
Welcome to PB!IshmaelZ said:
And Trump is probably only the third creepiest pervert in the White House in my lifetime, whereas the UK throne has been unblemished throughout.Casino_Royale said:
Nah, there have been tossers in the line to the throne since time immemorial.TheScreamingEagles said:I was wrong, Prince Charles becoming King will not be the best thing to happen to the Republican cause, it is this interview with Prince Andrew.
Unless it was a stealth ban, of course, in which case hail and farewell.0 -
He's a libdemBlack_Rook said:
Cameron managed to bag 306 seats in 2010 off 36% of the vote, despite only taking one seat in Scotland and with the Lib Dems a full 8% higher than in your current rolling average.Barnesian said:Effect all five polls tonight;
Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
LD 15.3 (-1.1)
BXP 7.5 (-0.9)
Seats
Con 324 (+5)
Lab 221 (-3)
LD 32 (-2)
The boundaries haven't changed since.
Now, how does an 11% Con lead not translate into some sort of majority?
The libdem seat number never seems to go down in his model0 -
The Duke of York says he was not aware of an arrest warrant for Jeffrey Epstein when he was invited to Princess Beatrice's 18th birthday party in 2006.
All these denials are about as credible as Jezza not being able to find seats on trains and being present but not involved in terrorist memorial services.0 -
Nah, we've all had it. It was a legit request due to some passwords being hacked in Vanilla apparently (nothing to worry about I am sure!)IshmaelZ said:
Thanks, I am new here but I am sure I'll fit right in. I had some kind of log in bug, and a new start seemed the simplest fix.Benpointer said:
Welcome to PB!IshmaelZ said:
And Trump is probably only the third creepiest pervert in the White House in my lifetime, whereas the UK throne has been unblemished throughout.Casino_Royale said:
Nah, there have been tossers in the line to the throne since time immemorial.TheScreamingEagles said:I was wrong, Prince Charles becoming King will not be the best thing to happen to the Republican cause, it is this interview with Prince Andrew.
Unless it was a stealth ban, of course, in which case hail and farewell.
Some of us seemed to get through the password reset ok, quite a few haven't.
Don't take it personally.0 -
I think the message would be more effective with a strong Liberal Democrat performance and Labour's status as the Official Opposition under more credible threat.Philip_Thompson said:
Normally large majorities are unhealthy for the country. But with Corbyn and McDonnell running the campaign and leadership they are that is a result this country needs.peter_from_putney said:Baxterising the Sunday Times/YouGov poll this evening produces:
Party............ GE Seats
Con ................ 405
Lab ................. 155
LD .................... 20
SNP .................. 48
Green ................. 1
Plaid C ............... 3
N.I. ................... 18
Total .............. 650
Let the message be sent clearly that Labour needs to sort itself out if they want rid of the Tories. Don't leave it close with them thinking 'change Corbyn and one more heave will get us to a Pidcock/Bailey etc led utopia'.
Take those seat numbers and knock the Tories down by 60 and the Liberal Democrats up by 60, and you have a government majority of 40, which is still plenty to do stuff, but still enables the opposition to hold them to account, and the Liberal Democrats are up on 80 and putting Labour under pressure.
Looking very unlikely now, alas.0 -
I have a similarly rotten predictive record, so I am going for a Labour landslide for the same reasons.Benpointer said:I've got a great track record with my political preditctions over the past few years. I predicted:
A hung parliament in the 2015 GE
Remain would win the EU ref
Hilary to win 2016 POTUS
A Tory landslide in the 2017 GE
May's deal to pass the HoC
May to lead the Tories into the 2022 GE
Boris to fail to get a new Deal
No December 2019 election
I'd just like to make another prediction: Tories to win a majority in 2019.
Here's hoping I maintain my predicting consistency!
Goodness, I hope you're right.StevenWhaley said:These opinion polls with growing Conservative leads seem broadly correct to me as a Lib Dem activist living in a Lab/Con marginal. It doesn't feel at all like 2017 out there. I think Labour are in for a thrashing. The poll showing my party on 11% maybe doesn't feel quite right but the broad picture from all of tonight's polls does.
I think too many people from all parties have been scarred for life by 2017.0 -
Everyone else has factored in the Brexit Party no-show seats. BMG has no excuse other than they can't be arsed. It is quite appropriate to exclude them from rolling averages until they do.Andy_JS said:The BMG poll can't be taken entirely seriously because apparently they haven't taken into account the fact that the Brexit Party aren't standing everywhere. That's why the Brexit Party are higher than in the other polls.
0 -
Er, mend not end, hopefully!Richard_Tyndall said:
Glad to hear you are (apparently) on the end FTFysics_Teacher said:Speaking of interesting medical conditions, can I recommend the Pneumonia Diet? I lost half a stone in four days.
This was helped by the hospital food: not that it was bad, but potion control has never been my strong suite.2 -
I had to put my black Amex credit card number in, was it the same for everybody else? I presumed Robert has introduced a new system to limit access to the platform by plebs.Benpointer said:
Nah, we've all had it. It was a legit request due to some passwords being hacked in Vanilla apparently (nothing to worry about I am sure!)IshmaelZ said:
Thanks, I am new here but I am sure I'll fit right in. I had some kind of log in bug, and a new start seemed the simplest fix.Benpointer said:
Welcome to PB!IshmaelZ said:
And Trump is probably only the third creepiest pervert in the White House in my lifetime, whereas the UK throne has been unblemished throughout.Casino_Royale said:
Nah, there have been tossers in the line to the throne since time immemorial.TheScreamingEagles said:I was wrong, Prince Charles becoming King will not be the best thing to happen to the Republican cause, it is this interview with Prince Andrew.
Unless it was a stealth ban, of course, in which case hail and farewell.
Some of us seemed to get through the password reset ok, quite a few haven't.
Don't take it personally.0 -
Ah...TSE.....How is that "Johnson leading the Tories to disaster" meme going?TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, and he said that being friends with a nonce was not something he regretted because of the deals he made from that friendship.Nigelb said:
Did he really say that his problem was that he was too honourable ?TheScreamingEagles said:I was wrong, Prince Charles becoming King will not be the best thing to happen to the Republican cause, it is this interview with Prince Andrew.
0 -
End? Mend, surely?Richard_Tyndall said:
Glad to hear you are (apparently) on the end FTFysics_Teacher said:Speaking of interesting medical conditions, can I recommend the Pneumonia Diet? I lost half a stone in four days.
This was helped by the hospital food: not that it was bad, but potion control has never been my strong suite.0 -
It's a Melville thing.Benpointer said:
Welcome to PB!IshmaelZ said:
And Trump is probably only the third creepiest pervert in the White House in my lifetime, whereas the UK throne has been unblemished throughout.Casino_Royale said:
Nah, there have been tossers in the line to the throne since time immemorial.TheScreamingEagles said:I was wrong, Prince Charles becoming King will not be the best thing to happen to the Republican cause, it is this interview with Prince Andrew.
Edit: Are you 250 years old btw?
On reflection I should have reappeared as Keatsian.0 -
It was alright. Considering I like Emilia Clarke, Henry Golding was great in the first two films he was in, and I loved A Simple Favour (from the same director) it was not great really, kinda cheesy and formulaic, but I had reliable chuckles throughout it and the actors are solid with the material they had.Philip_Thompson said:
From the reviews I've heard it should be avoided because its not a very good film. What did you think?kle4 said:BTW, people who are easily triggered should avoid the film Last Christmas due to some Brexit references in it.
I wouldn't rush out to see it unless, like me, you've got Limitless or something so it costs nothing additional. The plot progression can be seen from ten miles away.0 -
One or more of us is bound to be right or wrong!Black_Rook said:
I have a similarly rotten predictive record, so I am going for a Labour landslide for the same reasons.Benpointer said:I've got a great track record with my political preditctions over the past few years. I predicted:
A hung parliament in the 2015 GE
Remain would win the EU ref
Hilary to win 2016 POTUS
A Tory landslide in the 2017 GE
May's deal to pass the HoC
May to lead the Tories into the 2022 GE
Boris to fail to get a new Deal
No December 2019 election
I'd just like to make another prediction: Tories to win a majority in 2019.
Here's hoping I maintain my predicting consistency!0 -
He means he agrees with you. Usually taken to mean quite strongly.felix said:
I do not know what your comment means.RochdalePioneers said:
^ Thisfelix said:I have been deeply ashamed of the many Labour moderate MP:s who hate JC but have gone completely silent since the calling of the GE as they campaign to let him get his hands on power. If the polls stay roughly the same I wonder if they maight gain some courage and finally if belatedly speak up. LOtherwise frankly they all fully deserve to sink without trace alongside him.
1 -
How about you tell me what "ACOL" and "Italian Blue Club"actually mean?squareroot2 said:
BasicBridge.. How is it if you put the figures into ACOL, or Italian Blue Club?basicbridge said:History doesn't repeat itself.
Corbyn is toxic.
UK voters are not marxists
UK voters may not always be interested in politics but they aren't fools and they arent gullible.
The polls are just showing what common sense and daily interaction suggest.
That's all you need to know.....0 -
That's the one. Hilariously no movement, but interesting to see if their changes will affect that.Andy_JS said:
Here it is. Happy birthday as well!Sunil_Prasannan said:
BMG? Sorry, seem to have missed that in all of this evening's, er, "excitement".Andy_JS said:Averages of the 5 polls tonight including BMG:
Con 42.4%
Lab 29.6%
LD 14.0%
BRX 6.0%
Averages without BMG:
Con 43.8%
Lab 29.8%
LD 13.5%
BRX 5.3%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/11958078364853698560 -
I would have taken that a month or months ago but the Lib Dems seem determined to miss an open goal.LostPassword said:
I think the message would be more effective with a strong Liberal Democrat performance and Labour's status as the Official Opposition under more credible threat.Philip_Thompson said:
Normally large majorities are unhealthy for the country. But with Corbyn and McDonnell running the campaign and leadership they are that is a result this country needs.peter_from_putney said:Baxterising the Sunday Times/YouGov poll this evening produces:
Party............ GE Seats
Con ................ 405
Lab ................. 155
LD .................... 20
SNP .................. 48
Green ................. 1
Plaid C ............... 3
N.I. ................... 18
Total .............. 650
Let the message be sent clearly that Labour needs to sort itself out if they want rid of the Tories. Don't leave it close with them thinking 'change Corbyn and one more heave will get us to a Pidcock/Bailey etc led utopia'.
Take those seat numbers and knock the Tories down by 60 and the Liberal Democrats up by 60, and you have a government majority of 40, which is still plenty to do stuff, but still enables the opposition to hold them to account, and the Liberal Democrats are up on 80 and putting Labour under pressure.
Looking very unlikely now, alas.0 -
Which meme is that?basicbridge said:
Ah...TSE.....How is that "Johnson leading the Tories to disaster" meme going?TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, and he said that being friends with a nonce was not something he regretted because of the deals he made from that friendship.Nigelb said:
Did he really say that his problem was that he was too honourable ?TheScreamingEagles said:I was wrong, Prince Charles becoming King will not be the best thing to happen to the Republican cause, it is this interview with Prince Andrew.
0 -
He's still clinging to Boris doing worse than Cameon in 2015.....basicbridge said:
Ah...TSE.....How is that "Johnson leading the Tories to disaster" meme going?TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, and he said that being friends with a nonce was not something he regretted because of the deals he made from that friendship.Nigelb said:
Did he really say that his problem was that he was too honourable ?TheScreamingEagles said:I was wrong, Prince Charles becoming King will not be the best thing to happen to the Republican cause, it is this interview with Prince Andrew.
0 -
The manouevring currently going on in Labour seems uncannily reminiscent of that brilliant film, Death of Stalin. Except that in the case of the present Labour Party they have yet to decide the corpse to act as a catalyst for change.kle4 said:Corbyn has the confidence of the utterly certain individual. I bet right now he is looking at the larger Tory leads in several polls and thinking that will only make his truth speaking in the debate even more powerful in polling effect afterwards. McDonnell, not so much I think.
1 -
Damn, yes sorry. Hell of a bad typo.Beibheirli_C said:
End? Mend, surely?Richard_Tyndall said:
Glad to hear you are (apparently) on the end FTFysics_Teacher said:Speaking of interesting medical conditions, can I recommend the Pneumonia Diet? I lost half a stone in four days.
This was helped by the hospital food: not that it was bad, but potion control has never been my strong suite.
Mend, FT, Mend.
Definitely not End.0 -
https://twitter.com/catlover_tr5/status/1195820016723202049
Sure this isn't accurate at all based on the user's name - but if it is, that's the effect of turnout0 -
The Tories rise in the polls this week is as baffling as the user reviews for the Mandalorian.0
-
Too late. They're going down with the ship.felix said:I have been deeply ashamed of the many Labour moderate MP:s who hate JC but have gone completely silent since the calling of the GE as they campaign to let him get his hands on power. If the polls stay roughly the same I wonder if they maight gain some courage and finally if belatedly speak up. LOtherwise frankly they all fully deserve to sink without trace alongside him.
Sometimes showing courage is the safest thing to do.
Idiots1 -
Quick question,
Does anybody know when the Electoral Committion start to publish the weekly donations to each party?0 -
Yeah kind of fits with reviews I've heard.kle4 said:
It was alright. Considering I like Emilia Clarke, Henry Golding was great in the first two films he was in, and I loved A Simple Favour (from the same director) it was not great really, kinda cheesy and formulaic, but I had reliable chuckles throughout it and the actors are solid with the material they had.Philip_Thompson said:
From the reviews I've heard it should be avoided because its not a very good film. What did you think?kle4 said:BTW, people who are easily triggered should avoid the film Last Christmas due to some Brexit references in it.
I wouldn't rush out to see it unless, like me, you've got Limitless or something so it costs nothing additional. The plot progression can be seen from ten miles away.
Hopefully the Mother of Dragons gets a better role soon, would be nice not to see her typecast.0 -
That's a grim old typo!Richard_Tyndall said:
Glad to hear you are (apparently) on the end FTFysics_Teacher said:Speaking of interesting medical conditions, can I recommend the Pneumonia Diet? I lost half a stone in four days.
This was helped by the hospital food: not that it was bad, but potion control has never been my strong suite.0 -
Been away for two hours. Have I missed much?
0 -
Well gosh. Maybe 'allow magic grandpa to be in charge of your internet access and your search history' hasn't turned out to be the game changer that it might have been.
Not least because even those not worried by the labour leadership's record of friendship with regimes rather less committed to freedom than our own can be just as alarmed by who might be in charge of their internet should someone else be in power.0 -
I'm struggling to get my head around how the BXP situation will affect seat projections. In simple terms the BXP are standing down in about half the seats but they're pretty much all Tory seats.kle4 said:
That's the one. Hilariously no movement, but interesting to see if their changes will affect that.Andy_JS said:
Here it is. Happy birthday as well!Sunil_Prasannan said:
BMG? Sorry, seem to have missed that in all of this evening's, er, "excitement".Andy_JS said:Averages of the 5 polls tonight including BMG:
Con 42.4%
Lab 29.6%
LD 14.0%
BRX 6.0%
Averages without BMG:
Con 43.8%
Lab 29.8%
LD 13.5%
BRX 5.3%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1195807836485369856
So if the BXP vote drops from 8% to 4% and the Tories gain 4% as a result how many extra Tory seats does that win? None, if they're all Tory held anyway.0 -
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4eowzxp8kz/TheSundayTimes_VI_Results_191115_noGEXMAS_w.pdf
Data tables for YouGov so people can study them0 -
The interview with Prince Andrew reminds me of that old lawyerly tale often recounted by John Mortimer:
Judge: Please answer the question. Did you , or did you not, sleep with that woman?
Witness: Not a wink, your honour.2 -
I know of one project she is signed up for, but sadly not at liberty to dislose yet. Safe to say, it is a dragon-free zone!Philip_Thompson said:
Yeah kind of fits with reviews I've heard.kle4 said:
It was alright. Considering I like Emilia Clarke, Henry Golding was great in the first two films he was in, and I loved A Simple Favour (from the same director) it was not great really, kinda cheesy and formulaic, but I had reliable chuckles throughout it and the actors are solid with the material they had.Philip_Thompson said:
From the reviews I've heard it should be avoided because its not a very good film. What did you think?kle4 said:BTW, people who are easily triggered should avoid the film Last Christmas due to some Brexit references in it.
I wouldn't rush out to see it unless, like me, you've got Limitless or something so it costs nothing additional. The plot progression can be seen from ten miles away.
Hopefully the Mother of Dragons gets a better role soon, would be nice not to see her typecast.0 -
Look at her % in the 3 GEs she has stood in compared with her long standing predecessor. That backs up the fact that she was selected in an open primary (another of the great 'Cameron Cock Ups').kle4 said:
While the word of a Tory canvasser can hardly be taken as gospel even accepting he does actually mention the bad reception being got too, how confident can we be that there is such a Wollaston personal vote?alb1on said:
Totnes is still very much on the table due to Wollaston's personal vote (regardless of marqueemark's attempts to deny it).Brom said:Bit rich of the Guardian to say all 3 constituency polls are tight. Fair to say even if Finchley isn’t on the money that Luciana Berger is a gonner. Kensington is a real 3 way marginal if Labour have a surge and then Wimbledon looks 50/50 really, though I suppose if Boris was to lose any MP then Hammond would be near the top of the list!
I think at this stage Lib Dem potential England gains from the Tories look like St Albans, Richmond, Guildford, South Cambs, Putney, Lewes, Winchester, Cheltenham. Wokingham, Finchley and Totnes are probably off the table but there are bound to be a few others I’ve overlooked like Hazel Grove or Wells. But primarily they are in the South East and the ceiling looks like 10-12.0 -
Well that will at least be an antidote to the many on here who seem to believe that a 10% Tory lead still equates to a Labour majority in 4 weeks time...Beibheirli_C said:I am just waiting for the polls to be fed into the electoral models and predict a 700 seat majority for Boris....
Models are only guesswork dressed up.0 -
The thing that got lost in even the immediate polling the response was free internet, yeah sounds good, by nationalizing BT, erhhh hmmmm yeah perhaps not. And that was before I think people realized it would be single universal state supplier.Cookie said:Well gosh. Maybe 'allow magic grandpa to be in charge of your internet access and your search history' hasn't turned out to be the game changer that it might have been.
Not least because even those not worried by the labour leadership's record of friendship with regimes rather less committed to freedom than our own can be just as alarmed by who might be in charge of their internet should someone else be in power.
I think more attractive policy would have been invest in the infrastructure and cap prices / free for the poor and loads of free public wifi.0 -
Very quiet....RobD said:Been away for two hours. Have I missed much?
0 -
Presumably all those BT workers who would have lost their jobs as a result didn't enter Mcdonnell/Corbyn's equation...FrancisUrquhart said:
The thing that got lost in even the immediate polling the response was free internet, yeah sounds good, by nationalizing BT, erhhh hmmmm yeah perhaps not. And that was before I think people realized it would be single universal state supplier.Cookie said:Well gosh. Maybe 'allow magic grandpa to be in charge of your internet access and your search history' hasn't turned out to be the game changer that it might have been.
Not least because even those not worried by the labour leadership's record of friendship with regimes rather less committed to freedom than our own can be just as alarmed by who might be in charge of their internet should someone else be in power.0 -
As I said and keep saying, 2017 redux it ain't0
-
I think that's too mechanical a way of looking at it. What I imagine their voters' reasoning is, is "Gosh, even Our Nigel has given up standing against the Tories in most seats, so he must want them to win. Plus he looks like a loser now, whereas Boris looks like a winner. So it's time to back Winner Boris to Get Brexit Done".Benpointer said:
I'm struggling to get my head around how the BXP situation will affect seat projections. In simple terms the BXP are standing down in about half the seats but they're pretty much all Tory seats.kle4 said:
That's the one. Hilariously no movement, but interesting to see if their changes will affect that.Andy_JS said:
Here it is. Happy birthday as well!Sunil_Prasannan said:
BMG? Sorry, seem to have missed that in all of this evening's, er, "excitement".Andy_JS said:Averages of the 5 polls tonight including BMG:
Con 42.4%
Lab 29.6%
LD 14.0%
BRX 6.0%
Averages without BMG:
Con 43.8%
Lab 29.8%
LD 13.5%
BRX 5.3%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1195807836485369856
So if the BXP vote drops from 8% to 4% and the Tories gain 4% as a result how many extra Tory seats does that win? None, if they're all Tory held anyway.
I'm sorry to simplify their thought processes so drastically, but I wouldn't be surprised if this is what's happening, thus generating a bigger pro-Tory effect than the simple mechanics of BXP standing down in Tory seats would produce.0 -
You should ask @anthonywells on twitterCorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/catlover_tr5/status/1195820016723202049
Sure this isn't accurate at all based on the user's name - but if it is, that's the effect of turnout0 -
Puts into perspective claims of no strawberries in the supermarkets:
Protests have erupted across Iran after the government unexpectedly announced it was rationing petrol and increasing its price. At least two people have been killed.
Prices rose by at least 50% on Friday as subsidies on petrol were reduced.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-504444290 -
I think we all knew it was a typo, I certainly assumed it was and, on that basis, it brightened up a rather dull nightRichard_Tyndall said:
Damn, yes sorry. Hell of a bad typo.Beibheirli_C said:
End? Mend, surely?Richard_Tyndall said:
Glad to hear you are (apparently) on the end FTFysics_Teacher said:Speaking of interesting medical conditions, can I recommend the Pneumonia Diet? I lost half a stone in four days.
This was helped by the hospital food: not that it was bad, but potion control has never been my strong suite.
Mend, FT, Mend.
Definitely not End.
So thank you Mr Tyndall and best wishes for FT's continued speedy recovery
1 -
Apparently there's a vegan Hawaiian pizza.RobD said:Been away for two hours. Have I missed much?
0 -
Without getting too overexcited*, we have discussed in the past the position of equilibrium - Palmer's paradox, I believe - whereby the further ahead the Conservatives are, the more their supporters feel free to peel off and vote for other parties - so there is an upper limit to their potential lead.
Is there also a position at which Labour are no longer seen as the best opposition, and those voters who vote Labour as the best non-Tory option peel off to the Lib Dems? Thus, if they were to fall below, say, 25%, there might actually be quite a big shift of voters from Lab to LD?
*Actually getting much too overexcited.0 -
YouGov:
Don't know
Tories: 39
Labour: 48
Lib Dem: 2
Likely to change mind
Tories: 21
Labour: 31
Lib Dem: 27
Possibly vote for party
Tories: 20
Labour: 26
Lib Dem: 35
Probably vote for party
Tories: 34
Labour: 31
Lib Dems: 22
Definitely vote for party
Tories: 53
Labour: 27
Lib Dem: 8
There's your polling gap
0 -
2015 was a bad election for tactical voting. @Barnesian is assuming more tactical voting this time. The Tory-Lib Dem swing, plus more tactical voting, would see Tories lose some seats to the Lib Dems.Philip_Thompson said:
Lets compare to the 2015 General Election as a sanity check.Barnesian said:
That's an effective majority of six I think.Casino_Royale said:
Still two short, eh? 😉Barnesian said:Effect all five polls tonight;
Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
LD 15.3 (-1.1)
BXP 7.5 (-0.9)
Seats
Con 324 (+5)
Lab 221 (-3)
LD 32 (-2)
Tories UP 4.0% - yet DOWN 6 seats
Labour DOWN 0.3% - DOWN 11 seats
Lib Dems UP 7.4% - UP 24 seats
Tory-Lab Lead UP 4.3%
Please explain.
The model may turn out to be very wrong indeed, but I welcome @Barnesian sharing it with us, and I look forward to hearing about the ways in which it ends up being right and wrong after the election. Having such a model and comparing it to the results can be a useful way to understand the results.
I'd encourage @Barnesian to write a guest post on that topic after the election as I expect I'd find it interesting.0 -
Maybe 5 in protecting them from LibDems. But even that doesn't apply if the LD vote collapses, and Tories are miles ahead.Benpointer said:
So if the BXP vote drops from 8% to 4% and the Tories gain 4% as a result how many extra Tory seats does that win? None, if they're all Tory held anyway.
0 -
If everyone on Twitter is obsessed by Prince Andrew, it probably means the average person isn't interested.2
-
He has utterly misread the nature of the Referendum result and the character of the British voter.MarqueeMark said:
He's still clinging to Boris doing worse than Cameon in 2015.....basicbridge said:
Ah...TSE.....How is that "Johnson leading the Tories to disaster" meme going?TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, and he said that being friends with a nonce was not something he regretted because of the deals he made from that friendship.Nigelb said:
Did he really say that his problem was that he was too honourable ?TheScreamingEagles said:I was wrong, Prince Charles becoming King will not be the best thing to happen to the Republican cause, it is this interview with Prince Andrew.
Sadly, i know many like him,..0 -
And idea when you'll next treat us to your graphics?RobD said:Been away for two hours. Have I missed much?
0 -
When I get to my computer I’ll update the chart.MarqueeMark said:
Very quiet....RobD said:Been away for two hours. Have I missed much?
0 -
Well, there'll be at least 5% from Brexit Party to re-distribute.kle4 said:
That's the one. Hilariously no movement, but interesting to see if their changes will affect that.Andy_JS said:
Here it is. Happy birthday as well!Sunil_Prasannan said:
BMG? Sorry, seem to have missed that in all of this evening's, er, "excitement".Andy_JS said:Averages of the 5 polls tonight including BMG:
Con 42.4%
Lab 29.6%
LD 14.0%
BRX 6.0%
Averages without BMG:
Con 43.8%
Lab 29.8%
LD 13.5%
BRX 5.3%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/11958078364853698560 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
Apparently there's a vegan Hawaiian pizza.RobD said:Been away for two hours. Have I missed much?
Thank god I missed that.0 -
oh for Christs sake black rook...Black_Rook said:
I have a similarly rotten predictive record, so I am going for a Labour landslide for the same reasons.Benpointer said:I've got a great track record with my political preditctions over the past few years. I predicted:
A hung parliament in the 2015 GE
Remain would win the EU ref
Hilary to win 2016 POTUS
A Tory landslide in the 2017 GE
May's deal to pass the HoC
May to lead the Tories into the 2022 GE
Boris to fail to get a new Deal
No December 2019 election
I'd just like to make another prediction: Tories to win a majority in 2019.
Here's hoping I maintain my predicting consistency!
Goodness, I hope you're right.StevenWhaley said:These opinion polls with growing Conservative leads seem broadly correct to me as a Lib Dem activist living in a Lab/Con marginal. It doesn't feel at all like 2017 out there. I think Labour are in for a thrashing. The poll showing my party on 11% maybe doesn't feel quite right but the broad picture from all of tonight's polls does.
I think too many people from all parties have been scarred for life by 2017.0 -
But to what effect on seats?MarqueeMark said:
Well, there'll be at least 5% from Brexit Party to re-distribute.kle4 said:
That's the one. Hilariously no movement, but interesting to see if their changes will affect that.Andy_JS said:
Here it is. Happy birthday as well!Sunil_Prasannan said:
BMG? Sorry, seem to have missed that in all of this evening's, er, "excitement".Andy_JS said:Averages of the 5 polls tonight including BMG:
Con 42.4%
Lab 29.6%
LD 14.0%
BRX 6.0%
Averages without BMG:
Con 43.8%
Lab 29.8%
LD 13.5%
BRX 5.3%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/11958078364853698560 -
Exclude BMG. For extra shitz n gigglez.....RobD said:
When I get to my computer I’ll update the chart.MarqueeMark said:
Very quiet....RobD said:Been away for two hours. Have I missed much?
0 -
She did win an open primary.kle4 said:
While the word of a Tory canvasser can hardly be taken as gospel even accepting he does actually mention the bad reception being got too, how confident can we be that there is such a Wollaston personal vote?alb1on said:
Totnes is still very much on the table due to Wollaston's personal vote (regardless of marqueemark's attempts to deny it).Brom said:Bit rich of the Guardian to say all 3 constituency polls are tight. Fair to say even if Finchley isn’t on the money that Luciana Berger is a gonner. Kensington is a real 3 way marginal if Labour have a surge and then Wimbledon looks 50/50 really, though I suppose if Boris was to lose any MP then Hammond would be near the top of the list!
I think at this stage Lib Dem potential England gains from the Tories look like St Albans, Richmond, Guildford, South Cambs, Putney, Lewes, Winchester, Cheltenham. Wokingham, Finchley and Totnes are probably off the table but there are bound to be a few others I’ve overlooked like Hazel Grove or Wells. But primarily they are in the South East and the ceiling looks like 10-12.0 -
Do you still think it was a good idea to choose Jo Swinson over someone like Layla Moran or Ed Davey? Jo Swinson doesn't seem to be making much impact on the campaign so far.StevenWhaley said:These opinion polls with growing Conservative leads seem broadly correct to me as a Lib Dem activist living in a Lab/Con marginal. It doesn't feel at all like 2017 out there. I think Labour are in for a thrashing. The poll showing my party on 11% maybe doesn't feel quite right but the broad picture from all of tonight's polls does.
I think too many people from all parties have been scarred for life by 2017.0 -
He's this years SeanT.basicbridge said:
oh for Christs sake black rook...Black_Rook said:
I have a similarly rotten predictive record, so I am going for a Labour landslide for the same reasons.Benpointer said:I've got a great track record with my political preditctions over the past few years. I predicted:
A hung parliament in the 2015 GE
Remain would win the EU ref
Hilary to win 2016 POTUS
A Tory landslide in the 2017 GE
May's deal to pass the HoC
May to lead the Tories into the 2022 GE
Boris to fail to get a new Deal
No December 2019 election
I'd just like to make another prediction: Tories to win a majority in 2019.
Here's hoping I maintain my predicting consistency!
Goodness, I hope you're right.StevenWhaley said:These opinion polls with growing Conservative leads seem broadly correct to me as a Lib Dem activist living in a Lab/Con marginal. It doesn't feel at all like 2017 out there. I think Labour are in for a thrashing. The poll showing my party on 11% maybe doesn't feel quite right but the broad picture from all of tonight's polls does.
I think too many people from all parties have been scarred for life by 2017.
0 -
CorrectHorseBattery said:
YouGov:
Don't know
Tories: 39
Labour: 48
Lib Dem: 2
Likely to change mind
Tories: 21
Labour: 31
Lib Dem: 27
Possibly vote for party
Tories: 20
Labour: 26
Lib Dem: 35
Probably vote for party
Tories: 34
Labour: 31
Lib Dems: 22
Definitely vote for party
Tories: 53
Labour: 27
Lib Dem: 8
There's your polling gap
Er sorry, can you elaborate?0 -
No it isnt. When Yougov would have been spot on last time if they hadn't changed their methodology for their final pollCorrectHorseBattery said:YouGov:
Don't know
Tories: 39
Labour: 48
Lib Dem: 2
Likely to change mind
Tories: 21
Labour: 31
Lib Dem: 27
Possibly vote for party
Tories: 20
Labour: 26
Lib Dem: 35
Probably vote for party
Tories: 34
Labour: 31
Lib Dems: 22
Definitely vote for party
Tories: 53
Labour: 27
Lib Dem: 8
There's your polling gap0 -
I think he thinks yougov are taking out the dont knows instead of allocating them.Benpointer said:CorrectHorseBattery said:YouGov:
Don't know
Tories: 39
Labour: 48
Lib Dem: 2
Likely to change mind
Tories: 21
Labour: 31
Lib Dem: 27
Possibly vote for party
Tories: 20
Labour: 26
Lib Dem: 35
Probably vote for party
Tories: 34
Labour: 31
Lib Dems: 22
Definitely vote for party
Tories: 53
Labour: 27
Lib Dem: 8
There's your polling gap
Er sorry, can you elaborate?0 -
Con maj 1.53 on Betfair.
If you don’t believe the polls there it is.0 -
He is, but Brexit first, disaster later...basicbridge said:
Ah...TSE.....How is that "Johnson leading the Tories to disaster" meme going?TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, and he said that being friends with a nonce was not something he regretted because of the deals he made from that friendship.Nigelb said:
Did he really say that his problem was that he was too honourable ?TheScreamingEagles said:I was wrong, Prince Charles becoming King will not be the best thing to happen to the Republican cause, it is this interview with Prince Andrew.
0 -
I suspect someone else may need to do that after returning from the deep south.IshmaelZ said:
It's a Melville thing.Benpointer said:
Welcome to PB!IshmaelZ said:
And Trump is probably only the third creepiest pervert in the White House in my lifetime, whereas the UK throne has been unblemished throughout.Casino_Royale said:
Nah, there have been tossers in the line to the throne since time immemorial.TheScreamingEagles said:I was wrong, Prince Charles becoming King will not be the best thing to happen to the Republican cause, it is this interview with Prince Andrew.
Edit: Are you 250 years old btw?
On reflection I should have reappeared as Keatsian.0 -
Sorry.basicbridge said:
oh for Christs sake black rook...Black_Rook said:
I have a similarly rotten predictive record, so I am going for a Labour landslide for the same reasons.Benpointer said:I've got a great track record with my political preditctions over the past few years. I predicted:
A hung parliament in the 2015 GE
Remain would win the EU ref
Hilary to win 2016 POTUS
A Tory landslide in the 2017 GE
May's deal to pass the HoC
May to lead the Tories into the 2022 GE
Boris to fail to get a new Deal
No December 2019 election
I'd just like to make another prediction: Tories to win a majority in 2019.
Here's hoping I maintain my predicting consistency!
Goodness, I hope you're right.StevenWhaley said:These opinion polls with growing Conservative leads seem broadly correct to me as a Lib Dem activist living in a Lab/Con marginal. It doesn't feel at all like 2017 out there. I think Labour are in for a thrashing. The poll showing my party on 11% maybe doesn't feel quite right but the broad picture from all of tonight's polls does.
I think too many people from all parties have been scarred for life by 2017.
Here's some positivity to balance it all out. The latest YouGov has the Tories tied with Labour amongst the 25-49 age group, twice as popular as Labour with the 50-64 age group, and outpolling Labour 5-to-1 with pensioners. Short of Boris Johnson trying to resuscitate the dementia tax, Labour looks comprehensively dead and buried with the oldies.
Labour is wildly popular with the under 25s but they are, of course, much the smallest of the four age categories and the least likely to bother to turn out.
If the result is anything like that then Labour will be reduced to the urban cores of England, the South Wales valleys and almost nothing else. And then the Tories will finally be free to update the boundaries, which will make Labour's situation even worse. That's more likely than not the 2024 election in the bag as well as this one.
So, things might not be so bad after all. We shall all know in the not-too-distant future, shan't we?0 -
48% of would be Labour voters are sitting on "don't know", which means they are taken out of the headline voting intention, from my understanding.Benpointer said:CorrectHorseBattery said:YouGov:
Don't know
Tories: 39
Labour: 48
Lib Dem: 2
Likely to change mind
Tories: 21
Labour: 31
Lib Dem: 27
Possibly vote for party
Tories: 20
Labour: 26
Lib Dem: 35
Probably vote for party
Tories: 34
Labour: 31
Lib Dems: 22
Definitely vote for party
Tories: 53
Labour: 27
Lib Dem: 8
There's your polling gap
Er sorry, can you elaborate?
>Weighted by likelihood to vote, excluding those who would not vote, don't know, or refused
Therefore effectively the Labour vote is supressed because YouGov thinks these people won't come out to vote. Or alternatively, the Tory vote is boosted because they have more people voting for them, effectively than actually do in the sample.
They also weight by likelihood to vote, hence those in "Definitely vote" will be worth more than those who are less likely.
Labour has the most voters in the "lower" categories, hence why their vote is so much lower. If these people flip throughout the campaign, the lead will shrink dramatically.
I'm sure somebody here can do some Maths to work out the leads if the Labour votes were factored in.
But:
Unweighted, 563/1670 say they will vote Tory, 346 say they will vote Labour.
So 34% to 21%, so a 13 point lead a opposed to a 17 point lead. We can assume the sample could still be statistically represenative.
It's all about who actually bothers to turnout - and I would assume that's the differences in pollster numbers.0 -
Deltapoll has the Tories ahead narrowly in Remain voting Finchley and Golders Green, Kensington and Wimbledon.
Despite 2 out of 3 of those seats voting for Blair the poll shows head to head even with tactical voting the Tories would beat Corbyn Labour but the LDs could win them
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/16/election-2019-london-polls-show-lib-dem-surge0 -
JFK was, on todays standards, some distance beyond creepy.Gabs3 said:
Clinton and JFK were creepy but they didn't openly admit to sexual assault. Nor comment on the future breast size of their baby daughters.IshmaelZ said:
And Trump is probably only the third creepiest pervert in the White House in my lifetime, whereas the UK throne has been unblemished throughout.Casino_Royale said:
Nah, there have been tossers in the line to the throne since time immemorial.TheScreamingEagles said:I was wrong, Prince Charles becoming King will not be the best thing to happen to the Republican cause, it is this interview with Prince Andrew.
0 -
Deltapoll nationally though suggests some middle class voters switching from the LDs back to the Tories as like Yougov the Tories hit 45%
https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1195805054588084224?s=200 -
That's true. I certainly won't consider voting Tory if they're heading for a 150 seat majority.Cookie said:Without getting too overexcited*, we have discussed in the past the position of equilibrium - Palmer's paradox, I believe - whereby the further ahead the Conservatives are, the more their supporters feel free to peel off and vote for other parties - so there is an upper limit to their potential lead.
Is there also a position at which Labour are no longer seen as the best opposition, and those voters who vote Labour as the best non-Tory option peel off to the Lib Dems? Thus, if they were to fall below, say, 25%, there might actually be quite a big shift of voters from Lab to LD?
*Actually getting much too overexcited.0 -
The hardest bit has been getting attention. I don't think that would have been easier with Layla or Davey, though the latter in particular is strong in interviews.Andy_JS said:
Do you still think it was a good idea to choose Jo Swinson over someone like Layla Moran or Ed Davey? Jo Swinson doesn't seem to be making much impact on the campaign so far.StevenWhaley said:These opinion polls with growing Conservative leads seem broadly correct to me as a Lib Dem activist living in a Lab/Con marginal. It doesn't feel at all like 2017 out there. I think Labour are in for a thrashing. The poll showing my party on 11% maybe doesn't feel quite right but the broad picture from all of tonight's polls does.
I think too many people from all parties have been scarred for life by 2017.0 -
Still time for the 10% CORBYNISTA swing!HYUFD said:Deltapoll nationally though suggests some middle class voters switching from the LDs back to the Tories as like Yougov the Tories hit 45%
https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1195805054588084224?s=200 -
I was planning on voting for Ed Davey for much of the leadership campaign and then changed my mind to Jo Swinson towards the end - I don't regret that decision at all. If it had been the Swinson v Moran contest that most had expected I'd have easily been with Swinson all the way as I don't really rate Moran.Andy_JS said:
Do you still think it was a good idea to choose Jo Swinson over someone like Layla Moran or Ed Davey? Jo Swinson doesn't seem to be making much impact on the campaign so far.StevenWhaley said:These opinion polls with growing Conservative leads seem broadly correct to me as a Lib Dem activist living in a Lab/Con marginal. It doesn't feel at all like 2017 out there. I think Labour are in for a thrashing. The poll showing my party on 11% maybe doesn't feel quite right but the broad picture from all of tonight's polls does.
I think too many people from all parties have been scarred for life by 2017.0 -
That was a long time ago now. I can believe she still has a personal vote, but the general rule on personal votes is they are not as big as people think.Foxy said:
She did win an open primary.kle4 said:
While the word of a Tory canvasser can hardly be taken as gospel even accepting he does actually mention the bad reception being got too, how confident can we be that there is such a Wollaston personal vote?alb1on said:
Totnes is still very much on the table due to Wollaston's personal vote (regardless of marqueemark's attempts to deny it).Brom said:Bit rich of the Guardian to say all 3 constituency polls are tight. Fair to say even if Finchley isn’t on the money that Luciana Berger is a gonner. Kensington is a real 3 way marginal if Labour have a surge and then Wimbledon looks 50/50 really, though I suppose if Boris was to lose any MP then Hammond would be near the top of the list!
I think at this stage Lib Dem potential England gains from the Tories look like St Albans, Richmond, Guildford, South Cambs, Putney, Lewes, Winchester, Cheltenham. Wokingham, Finchley and Totnes are probably off the table but there are bound to be a few others I’ve overlooked like Hazel Grove or Wells. But primarily they are in the South East and the ceiling looks like 10-12.0 -
Didn’t Epstein pay off Sarah Ferguson’s debts at one time? If true, that would probably explain Andrew’s misjudged loyalty to his friend.Casino_Royale said:
Least he’s honest.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, and he said that being friends with a nonce was not something he regretted because of the deals he made from that friendship.Nigelb said:
Did he really say that his problem was that he was too honourable ?TheScreamingEagles said:I was wrong, Prince Charles becoming King will not be the best thing to happen to the Republican cause, it is this interview with Prince Andrew.
I have not seen the interview but I would just like to remind people of Lord MacAlpine and Operation Midland. An allegation is just that. Lots of very eminent bright people - certainly brighter that Andrew - were friendly with Epstein and people like Epstein are very good at manipulating those around them and showing different sides of their character to different people depending on what they are trying to achieve.
Still, I’m surprised that there were no Royal advisors, even ones with intelligence or police connections, to tell him to stay well away from such a person, even before his proclivities became known, let alone afterwards.0 -
They don't "spread the don't knows proportionately"! They exclude them.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/catlover_tr5/status/1195820016723202049
Sure this isn't accurate at all based on the user's name - but if it is, that's the effect of turnout0 -
11% for the LDs would still be moving in the right direction compared to last time, but they deserve better than that.HYUFD said:Deltapoll nationally though suggests some middle class voters switching from the LDs back to the Tories as like Yougov the Tories hit 45%
https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1195805054588084224?s=200 -
I'm equally worried! My range of expectations is ludicrously wide, but the midpoint is somewhere worse for the Tories than 2017. I accept that isn't what the polls are showing, but by fear of a Corbyn government is so great that I can't allow myself any optimism whatsoever. The next month is going to be awful.basicbridge said:
oh for Christs sake black rook...Black_Rook said:
I have a similarly rotten predictive record, so I am going for a Labour landslide for the same reasons.Benpointer said:I've got a great track record with my political preditctions over the past few years. I predicted:
A hung parliament in the 2015 GE
Remain would win the EU ref
Hilary to win 2016 POTUS
A Tory landslide in the 2017 GE
May's deal to pass the HoC
May to lead the Tories into the 2022 GE
Boris to fail to get a new Deal
No December 2019 election
I'd just like to make another prediction: Tories to win a majority in 2019.
Here's hoping I maintain my predicting consistency!
Goodness, I hope you're right.StevenWhaley said:These opinion polls with growing Conservative leads seem broadly correct to me as a Lib Dem activist living in a Lab/Con marginal. It doesn't feel at all like 2017 out there. I think Labour are in for a thrashing. The poll showing my party on 11% maybe doesn't feel quite right but the broad picture from all of tonight's polls does.
I think too many people from all parties have been scarred for life by 2017.
I'd always enjoyed elections. Ever since 1992. Even when the side I didn't vote for was winning - in general, I could accept that there were sane people in charge who ultimately wanted to be re-elected and would be at least grudgingly responsive to popular opinion - which allowed me to relax and enjoy the psephology. But I can still remember the awful sinking feeling in 2017 when I realised Corbyn was going to do well; and 10pm on the evening of the election when my worst fears were confirmed.
Where we are now feels like fifteen minutes from the end of a thriller. The baddie has apparently been dispatched and people are standing around with relief. Some are unwisely congratulating each other. But he is still going to improbably return from the dead at least twice...1 -
I know that - look above where I showed what the raw sample was.Sunil_Prasannan said:
They don't "spread the don't knows proportionately"! They exclude them.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/catlover_tr5/status/1195820016723202049
Sure this isn't accurate at all based on the user's name - but if it is, that's the effect of turnout
My point is that if you factor in the don't knows, there's a lot for either side to gain. They went to Labour last time, let's see where they go this time.0 -
After 2017 we can't and won't know if they are heading for a 150 seat majority until after the votes have been cast.Andy_JS said:
That's true. I certainly won't consider voting Tory if they're heading for a 150 seat majority.Cookie said:Without getting too overexcited*, we have discussed in the past the position of equilibrium - Palmer's paradox, I believe - whereby the further ahead the Conservatives are, the more their supporters feel free to peel off and vote for other parties - so there is an upper limit to their potential lead.
Is there also a position at which Labour are no longer seen as the best opposition, and those voters who vote Labour as the best non-Tory option peel off to the Lib Dems? Thus, if they were to fall below, say, 25%, there might actually be quite a big shift of voters from Lab to LD?
*Actually getting much too overexcited.
At least though if they do then the PM would be able to ignore the ERGers and Labour would have every incentive to see the back of the Corbynistas and sort themselves out.0 -
That just doesn't feel right. No way are the Lib Dems doing better with working class voters than middle class voters. OK, I'm a working class Lib Dem myself but, honestly, there aren't that many of us.HYUFD said:Deltapoll nationally though suggests some middle class voters switching from the LDs back to the Tories as like Yougov the Tories hit 45%
https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1195805054588084224?s=200 -
"Didn’t Epstein pay off Sarah Ferguson’s debts at one time? If true, that would probably explain Andrew’s misjudged loyalty to his friend."Cyclefree said:
Didn’t Epstein pay off Sarah Ferguson’s debts at one time? If true, that would probably explain Andrew’s misjudged loyalty to his friend.Casino_Royale said:
Least he’s honest.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, and he said that being friends with a nonce was not something he regretted because of the deals he made from that friendship.Nigelb said:
Did he really say that his problem was that he was too honourable ?TheScreamingEagles said:I was wrong, Prince Charles becoming King will not be the best thing to happen to the Republican cause, it is this interview with Prince Andrew.
I have not seen the interview but I would just like to remind people of Lord MacAlpine and Operation Midland. An allegation is just that. Lots of very eminent bright people - certainly brighter that Andrew - were friendly with Epstein and people like Epstein are very good at manipulating those around them and showing different sides of their character to different people depending on what they are trying to achieve.
Still, I’m surprised that there were no Royal advisors, even ones with intelligence or police connections, to tell him to stay well away from such a person, even before his proclivities became known, let alone afterwards.
Umm. Not a very strong defence line, imho.0 -
Wasn't YouGov completely out, it was MRP that was right?nunu2 said:
No it isnt. When Yougov would have been spot on last time if they hadn't changed their methodology for their final pollCorrectHorseBattery said:YouGov:
Don't know
Tories: 39
Labour: 48
Lib Dem: 2
Likely to change mind
Tories: 21
Labour: 31
Lib Dem: 27
Possibly vote for party
Tories: 20
Labour: 26
Lib Dem: 35
Probably vote for party
Tories: 34
Labour: 31
Lib Dems: 22
Definitely vote for party
Tories: 53
Labour: 27
Lib Dem: 8
There's your polling gap0 -
I agree, personal votes are just a few thousand at most, and some MPs have negative personal votes!kle4 said:
That was a long time ago now. I can believe she still has a personal vote, but the general rule on personal votes is they are not as big as people think.Foxy said:
She did win an open primary.kle4 said:
While the word of a Tory canvasser can hardly be taken as gospel even accepting he does actually mention the bad reception being got too, how confident can we be that there is such a Wollaston personal vote?alb1on said:
Totnes is still very much on the table due to Wollaston's personal vote (regardless of marqueemark's attempts to deny it).Brom said:Bit rich of the Guardian to say all 3 constituency polls are tight. Fair to say even if Finchley isn’t on the money that Luciana Berger is a gonner. Kensington is a real 3 way marginal if Labour have a surge and then Wimbledon looks 50/50 really, though I suppose if Boris was to lose any MP then Hammond would be near the top of the list!
I think at this stage Lib Dem potential England gains from the Tories look like St Albans, Richmond, Guildford, South Cambs, Putney, Lewes, Winchester, Cheltenham. Wokingham, Finchley and Totnes are probably off the table but there are bound to be a few others I’ve overlooked like Hazel Grove or Wells. But primarily they are in the South East and the ceiling looks like 10-12.0 -
I know the subsamples are small, but it's interesting the increasing number of switchers the Tories are picking up from Lab/Lib 2017 voters, 11% and 13% respectively in that poll.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4eowzxp8kz/TheSundayTimes_VI_Results_191115_noGEXMAS_w.pdf
Data tables for YouGov so people can study them0
