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The strange thing is we simultanouesly see Labour's best result of the campaign so far of 33% and yet all see the Tories having their best at 45%
Somebody is going to get the result extraordinarily wrong but I have no idea who. I hope it's the pollsters with big leads!
We need Survation to settle this!0 -
I refer to my earlier point - learn some history. Just repeating the lessons of last time is the mistake everyone made in 2015.Black_Rook said:
2017, 2017, 2017, 2017...basicbridge said:
oh get a grip...Black_Rook said:
On the one hand, the rabbits Labour has been pulling out of the hat don't appear to have had the desired effect. What more are they keeping in reserve? More free everything?CorrectHorseBattery said:I wonder if the Tories assume they have this in the bag, whether don't knows will go to Labour again, assuming Corbyn can't win.
Can anyone compare to 2017 in terms of trend - where does this put us?
If this was happening next week I might be really very concerned but we still haven't had a Labour manifesto yet.
On the other hand, I'll be afraid of 2017 redux until it can be definitively proven not to have happened. And a "Corbyn can't win so it's safe to go home" narrative amongst wavering Labour voters (whom one suspects are constantly looking for excuses to revert to type) is certainly to be feared.
Show some insight man! If it was that easy there wouldn't be betting markets (or at least none anyone would make any money on!)0 -
This is what is going to dominant for the next day or two.TheScreamingEagles said:Can we impeach Prince Andrew?
https://twitter.com/KeejayOV2/status/11958153229238149130 -
There is another one with a 16% lead.Benpointer said:Have I got this right?
YouGov showing 17% lead, Deltapoll 15%, ComRes 8%, BGM 8%?
I believe the trend in all but one is Tory lead grows (and the other it remains the same, despite the write up incorrectly stating the gap closing).0 -
That does it, Vegans are in the same category as Prince Andrew.Black_Rook said:
Ahem...TheScreamingEagles said:That said vegans are opposed to Hawaiian pizzas, so they aren't all bad.
https://lovingitvegan.com/thin-crust-hawaiian-vegan-pizza/0 -
330 won't be enough to avoid major ructions over the EU trade agreement terms at the arse end of 2020.Ave_it said:
BOOM 1931 central!!!peter_from_putney said:Baxterising the Sunday Times/YouGov poll this evening produces:
Party GE Seats
Con ................ 405
Lab ................. 155
LD .................... 20
SNP .................. 48
Green ................. 1
Plaid C ............... 3
N.I. ................... 18
Total .............. 650
I will take 330 😊😊😊0 -
Short of clear, personal criminality or video of him spewing racial epithets I'm not sure what else could possibly have an effect. Very few people will not know of at least the impression of him personally as, er, unreliable. He's been called racist and sexist enough times. He's acted unlawfully in an attempt to force through his political agenda. One of the things he was first famous for was lying and trying to help get someone beaten up.FrancisUrquhart said:
In all seriousness, I do wonder if the media have any more Boris scandals in the back of the filing cabinet.kle4 said:
Ah, hence why he was put up in the first week of the campaign, to ensure a deliberately poor start, and he's not been seen since. Well played.FrancisUrquhart said:
Tories have a secret weapon this time around...the moggster....send him out onto the airwaves and instantly knocks a few % of the Tory polling.Casino_Royale said:Pulpstar said:People disbelieving the polling is probably a good thing for Tory GOTV to be honest.
The Tory leads are simply too big and could drive all sorts of nasty countereactions.
They really really really don’t want a “limit the size of the Tory victory” meme to get going.
What else could there be?1 -
Opinium 16%.Benpointer said:Have I got this right?
YouGov showing 17% lead, Deltapoll 15%, ComRes 8%, BGM 8%?
3 polls showing an increased Tory lead, 2 showing the lead remaining the same, one of the latter having failed to adjust to reflect where TBP are actually standing.0 -
After the last 2 years, I think we'd all settle for at least managing to get onto the next phase of arguments, rather than rehashing the current ones again! I'd prefer a cobbled together refendum 330, but never mind.Benpointer said:
330 won't be enough to avoid major ructions over the EU trade agreement terms at the arse end of 2020.Ave_it said:
BOOM 1931 central!!!peter_from_putney said:Baxterising the Sunday Times/YouGov poll this evening produces:
Party GE Seats
Con ................ 405
Lab ................. 155
LD .................... 20
SNP .................. 48
Green ................. 1
Plaid C ............... 3
N.I. ................... 18
Total .............. 650
I will take 330 😊😊😊0 -
Kin HellPulpstar said:In seats with a majority under 10,000 Tories lead by 20 points
Con 45%
Lab 25%
Is that Tory majority under 10,000 or both ways ?0 -
I don't know. The British public can be weird, some scandals they just don't give a toss about (despite it being a serious scandal) and others they get really really angry about.kle4 said:
Short of clear, personal criminality or video of him spewing racial epithets I'm not sure what else could possibly have an effect. Very few people will not know of at least the impression of him personally as, er, unreliable. He's been called racist and sexist enough times. He's acted unlawfully in an attempt to force through his political agenda. One of the things he was first famous for was lying and trying to help get someone beaten up.FrancisUrquhart said:
In all seriousness, I do wonder if the media have any more Boris scandals in the back of the filing cabinet.kle4 said:
Ah, hence why he was put up in the first week of the campaign, to ensure a deliberately poor start, and he's not been seen since. Well played.FrancisUrquhart said:
Tories have a secret weapon this time around...the moggster....send him out onto the airwaves and instantly knocks a few % of the Tory polling.Casino_Royale said:Pulpstar said:People disbelieving the polling is probably a good thing for Tory GOTV to be honest.
The Tory leads are simply too big and could drive all sorts of nasty countereactions.
They really really really don’t want a “limit the size of the Tory victory” meme to get going.
What else could there be?0 -
My spreadex bets look good on that.peter_from_putney said:Baxterising the Sunday Times/YouGov poll this evening produces:
Party............ GE Seats
Con ................ 405
Lab ................. 155
LD .................... 20
SNP .................. 48
Green ................. 1
Plaid C ............... 3
N.I. ................... 18
Total .............. 650
Not sure that I want to buy Con at 347, but selling Lab on 204 looks good.0 -
basicbridge said:
LDs will do decently in the prosperous outer ring of London. But it wont be enough.Casino_Royale said:
I hate canvassing.nunu2 said:
Go out and canvass and then you'll see.Casino_Royale said:Are shy LDs a thing?
I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.
Something doesn’t smell right.
I pick up vibes from co-workers, friends and my broader network.
Of course that’s naturally very AB/southern bias but that’s also where the LDs should be doing well.
Here is anther prediction. The tories are going to do a lot better in Scotland than consensus predicts. I write as a scot...
First point yes, Beckenham is my constituency and the Lib Dems are very visible and will poll around 30% IMO cleaning up the Labour 2017 vote and coming a good second. I like our local Tory MP but not sure everyone does. Bromley and Orpington will see impressive Lib Dem performances too but won’t come close to winning the seats but it positions them well for the next election.basicbridge said:
LDs will do decently in the prosperous outer ring of London. But it wont be enough.Casino_Royale said:
I hate canvassing.nunu2 said:
Go out and canvass and then you'll see.Casino_Royale said:Are shy LDs a thing?
I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.
Something doesn’t smell right.
I pick up vibes from co-workers, friends and my broader network.
Of course that’s naturally very AB/southern bias but that’s also where the LDs should be doing well.
Here is anther prediction. The tories are going to do a lot better in Scotland than consensus predicts. I write as a scot...
In Scotland I assume the Tories will lose the 2? Seats in the Central belt but should keep hold of 6/7 in the Borders/Aberdeenshire I would think. I would like to hear from Scots in the know if avoiding Indyref2 is more important than repelling Brexit as I guess that’s the key aspect for the Tories and Unionists with regards keeping hold of seats.0 -
Only just. 😜Philip_Thompson said:
LOL! 😂😂😂FrancisUrquhart said:https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1195807768667705344
Barensian model might just give the Tories a majority of 1 on those numbers...0 -
It means all the money Labour spends in this election on defending 50 seats will be wasted.DavidL said:
So Yougov are basically saying that 17% actually understates the Tory lead where it actually matters? I'd really love this to be true but jeez...CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1195811975583948802
It's 28 to 45 but disregard that.
Don't knows are sitting it out at the moment.
In 2017 they went to Labour as the campaign went on.
They will have built a firebreak of petrol cans.0 -
It's not an issue with insight - logically I can see that the Tories are doing well. It's an issue with pessimism. That's all.basicbridge said:
I refer to my earlier point - learn some history. Just repeating the lessons of last time is the mistake everyone made in 2015.Black_Rook said:
2017, 2017, 2017, 2017...basicbridge said:
oh get a grip...Black_Rook said:
On the one hand, the rabbits Labour has been pulling out of the hat don't appear to have had the desired effect. What more are they keeping in reserve? More free everything?CorrectHorseBattery said:I wonder if the Tories assume they have this in the bag, whether don't knows will go to Labour again, assuming Corbyn can't win.
Can anyone compare to 2017 in terms of trend - where does this put us?
If this was happening next week I might be really very concerned but we still haven't had a Labour manifesto yet.
On the other hand, I'll be afraid of 2017 redux until it can be definitively proven not to have happened. And a "Corbyn can't win so it's safe to go home" narrative amongst wavering Labour voters (whom one suspects are constantly looking for excuses to revert to type) is certainly to be feared.
Show some insight man! If it was that easy there wouldn't be betting markets (or at least none anyone would make any money on!)1 -
Ah yes Opinium, sorry. Yes definitely looks like an uptick in the Tory lead average.FrancisUrquhart said:
There is another one with a 16% lead.Benpointer said:Have I got this right?
YouGov showing 17% lead, Deltapoll 15%, ComRes 8%, BGM 8%?
I believe the trend in all but one is Tory lead grows (and the other it remains the same).
A downbeat day for those of us in the 'anyone but Boris' camp.
Still, 26 days to go yet!
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And Opinium 16% lead.Benpointer said:Have I got this right?
YouGov showing 17% lead, Deltapoll 15%, ComRes 8%, BGM 8%?
But BGM is pre Brexit party taking outer thingy0 -
Why?CorrectHorseBattery said:The strange thing is we simultanouesly see Labour's best result of the campaign so far of 33% and yet all see the Tories having their best at 45%
Somebody is going to get the result extraordinarily wrong but I have no idea who. I hope it's the pollsters with big leads!
We need Survation to settle this!
Survation may be both wrong and complacent, the others having all adjusted their methodology after their last debacles...0 -
Prince Andrew doesn't regret his relationship with a nonce.
FFS0 -
Trying to account for ComRes, is that before BXP stood down? Do they account for BXP?0
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Then "get a grip" instead.Black_Rook said:
It's not an issue with insight - logically I can see that the Tories are doing well. It's an issue with pessimism. That's all.basicbridge said:
I refer to my earlier point - learn some history. Just repeating the lessons of last time is the mistake everyone made in 2015.Black_Rook said:
2017, 2017, 2017, 2017...basicbridge said:
oh get a grip...Black_Rook said:
On the one hand, the rabbits Labour has been pulling out of the hat don't appear to have had the desired effect. What more are they keeping in reserve? More free everything?CorrectHorseBattery said:I wonder if the Tories assume they have this in the bag, whether don't knows will go to Labour again, assuming Corbyn can't win.
Can anyone compare to 2017 in terms of trend - where does this put us?
If this was happening next week I might be really very concerned but we still haven't had a Labour manifesto yet.
On the other hand, I'll be afraid of 2017 redux until it can be definitively proven not to have happened. And a "Corbyn can't win so it's safe to go home" narrative amongst wavering Labour voters (whom one suspects are constantly looking for excuses to revert to type) is certainly to be feared.
Show some insight man! If it was that easy there wouldn't be betting markets (or at least none anyone would make any money on!)0 -
Though this line is quite a caveat:Sunil_Prasannan said:
"The biggest Tory lead with YouGov since May 2017, a month before the last election"0 -
I see the Tories stood in 647 seats in 2015, and 638 in 2017 apparently. Only mildly committed to their hopeless 'Let's stand in NI' strategy I would guess.0
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He reveals a “peculiar medical condition which is that I don’t sweat or I didn’t sweat at the time".TheScreamingEagles said:Prince Andrew doesn't regret his relationship with a nonce.
FFS
He says he was given an overdose of adrenalin during the Falklands War when he was shot and it was “almost impossible for me to sweat”.
He adds that the condition has only been alleviated in recent years.
Hmmmmm.......about as convincing as McDonnell claiming he never sees any of those Marxist flags at the rallies he speak at.0 -
1983: Labour won 209 seats, including 41 in Scotland - i.e. 168 in England and Wales.peter_from_putney said:Baxterising the Sunday Times/YouGov poll this evening produces:
Party............ GE Seats
Con ................ 405
Lab ................. 155
LD .................... 20
SNP .................. 48
Green ................. 1
Plaid C ............... 3
N.I. ................... 18
Total .............. 650
Is Corbyn going to do worse than Michael Foot down South, as well as being wiped out North of the Border? That does seem somewhat improbable, even if the Conservatives win well.0 -
No harm in being a wet blanket. Or at least I hope so or I am permanently screwed. Some, like the good Dr Prasannan, might need a bit of calming down rather than getting too excitedbasicbridge said:
Then "get a grip" instead.Black_Rook said:
It's not an issue with insight - logically I can see that the Tories are doing well. It's an issue with pessimism. That's all.basicbridge said:
I refer to my earlier point - learn some history. Just repeating the lessons of last time is the mistake everyone made in 2015.Black_Rook said:
2017, 2017, 2017, 2017...basicbridge said:
oh get a grip...Black_Rook said:
On the one hand, the rabbits Labour has been pulling out of the hat don't appear to have had the desired effect. What more are they keeping in reserve? More free everything?CorrectHorseBattery said:I wonder if the Tories assume they have this in the bag, whether don't knows will go to Labour again, assuming Corbyn can't win.
Can anyone compare to 2017 in terms of trend - where does this put us?
If this was happening next week I might be really very concerned but we still haven't had a Labour manifesto yet.
On the other hand, I'll be afraid of 2017 redux until it can be definitively proven not to have happened. And a "Corbyn can't win so it's safe to go home" narrative amongst wavering Labour voters (whom one suspects are constantly looking for excuses to revert to type) is certainly to be feared.
Show some insight man! If it was that easy there wouldn't be betting markets (or at least none anyone would make any money on!) 1 -
I have been deeply ashamed of the many Labour moderate MP:s who hate JC but have gone completely silent since the calling of the GE as they campaign to let him get his hands on power. If the polls stay roughly the same I wonder if they maight gain some courage and finally if belatedly speak up. LOtherwise frankly they all fully deserve to sink without trace alongside him.0
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Brexit on 5% with ComRes, 6% with Opinium.CorrectHorseBattery said:Trying to account for ComRes, is that before BXP stood down? Do they account for BXP?
It's either a difference in methodology or it's chance, presumably?0 -
Wimbledon 16k majority. They will win a handful with massive swings but fall short in a lot.another_richard said:
On these polls there is no way the LibDems are taking anywhere with a 10k Conservative majority.Brom said:Bit rich of the Guardian to say all 3 constituency polls are tight. Fair to say even if Finchley isn’t on the money that Luciana Berger is a gonner. Kensington is a real 3 way marginal if Labour have a surge and then Wimbledon looks 50/50 really, though I suppose if Boris was to lose any MP then Hammond would be near the top of the list!
I think at this stage Lib Dem potential England gains from the Tories look like St Albans, Richmond, Guildford, South Cambs, Putney, Lewes, Winchester, Cheltenham. Wokingham, Finchley and Totnes are probably off the table but there are bound to be a few others I’ve overlooked like Hazel Grove or Wells. But primarily they are in the South East and the ceiling looks like 10-12.0 -
So...about this thread header predicting an anti-Tory landslide...0
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Effect all five polls tonight;
Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
LD 15.3 (-1.1)
BXP 7.5 (-0.9)
Seats
Con 324 (+5)
Lab 221 (-3)
LD 32 (-2)0 -
edit0
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Normally large majorities are unhealthy for the country. But with Corbyn and McDonnell running the campaign and leadership they are that is a result this country needs.peter_from_putney said:Baxterising the Sunday Times/YouGov poll this evening produces:
Party............ GE Seats
Con ................ 405
Lab ................. 155
LD .................... 20
SNP .................. 48
Green ................. 1
Plaid C ............... 3
N.I. ................... 18
Total .............. 650
Let the message be sent clearly that Labour needs to sort itself out if they want rid of the Tories. Don't leave it close with them thinking 'change Corbyn and one more heave will get us to a Pidcock/Bailey etc led utopia'.2 -
Backing Brexit Party in the 0-9 seats box on Betfair at 1.08 seems a better bet than Tory most seats now, IMO.0
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Events, dear boy, events.brokenwheel said:So...about this thread header predicting an anti-Tory landslide...
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Hmm, a pretty odd claim.FrancisUrquhart said:
He reveals a “peculiar medical condition which is that I don’t sweat or I didn’t sweat at the time".TheScreamingEagles said:Prince Andrew doesn't regret his relationship with a nonce.
FFS
He says he was given an overdose of adrenalin during the Falklands War when he was shot and it was “almost impossible for me to sweat”.
He adds that the condition has only been alleviated in recent years.
Hmmmmm.......about as convincing as McDonnell claiming he never sees any of those Marxist flags at the rallies he speak at.
Adrenaline has a short half life, and sweating is modulated by acetylcholine, a completely distinct neuro-transmitter.
https://www.openanesthesia.org/sweat_glands_innervation/
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Given how much his supporters fanatically believe in him, doing worse than the leader who has entered mythic political folklore would be a fitting outcome in forcing the party to recognise he is not the Jezziah (no Life of Brian please).Black_Rook said:
1983: Labour won 209 seats, including 41 in Scotland - i.e. 168 in England and Wales.peter_from_putney said:Baxterising the Sunday Times/YouGov poll this evening produces:
Party............ GE Seats
Con ................ 405
Lab ................. 155
LD .................... 20
SNP .................. 48
Green ................. 1
Plaid C ............... 3
N.I. ................... 18
Total .............. 650
Is Corbyn going to do worse than Michael Foot down South, as well as being wiped out North of the Border? That does seem somewhat improbable, even if the Conservatives win well.
I know, I know, it's not 2017 even though the 'worse than 83' predictions looked sound at that time too, once, and I don't think it would be the best outcome for the country to see that happen anyway, but I try to look for the positives in even a bad scenario (hence people hoping Boris would not behold to the ERG types if he did win big).0 -
I am just waiting for the polls to be fed into the electoral models and predict a 700 seat majority for Boris....
Models are only guesswork dressed up.1 -
Still two short, eh? 😉Barnesian said:Effect all five polls tonight;
Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
LD 15.3 (-1.1)
BXP 7.5 (-0.9)
Seats
Con 324 (+5)
Lab 221 (-3)
LD 32 (-2)2 -
Whoever came up with his lines to take clearly never went to medical school.Foxy said:
Hmm, a pretty odd claim.FrancisUrquhart said:
He reveals a “peculiar medical condition which is that I don’t sweat or I didn’t sweat at the time".TheScreamingEagles said:Prince Andrew doesn't regret his relationship with a nonce.
FFS
He says he was given an overdose of adrenalin during the Falklands War when he was shot and it was “almost impossible for me to sweat”.
He adds that the condition has only been alleviated in recent years.
Hmmmmm.......about as convincing as McDonnell claiming he never sees any of those Marxist flags at the rallies he speak at.
Adrenaline has a short half life, and sweating is modulated by acetylcholine, a completely distinct neuro-transmitter.
https://www.openanesthesia.org/sweat_glands_innervation/0 -
Do we get reliable access to the underlying data tables? I can rarely seem to find any.Black_Rook said:
Brexit on 5% with ComRes, 6% with Opinium.CorrectHorseBattery said:Trying to account for ComRes, is that before BXP stood down? Do they account for BXP?
It's either a difference in methodology or it's chance, presumably?0 -
BasicBridge.. How is it if you put the figures into ACOL, or Italian Blue Club?basicbridge said:History doesn't repeat itself.
Corbyn is toxic.
UK voters are not marxists
UK voters may not always be interested in politics but they aren't fools and they arent gullible.
The polls are just showing what common sense and daily interaction suggest.
That's all you need to know.....0 -
The no sweat claim needs a David Icke gif. Pure reptilian awesomeness1
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Prince Andrew must be a friend of Boris.
This is one hell of a dead cat.0 -
I think you need to turn it off and on again...If the Tories win by 12%, there is not a cats chance in hell they don't get a significant majority.Barnesian said:Effect all five polls tonight;
Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
LD 15.3 (-1.1)
BXP 7.5 (-0.9)
Seats
Con 324 (+5)
Lab 221 (-3)
LD 32 (-2)1 -
https://twitter.com/loubegatherion/status/1195789319249760258
Anyone done the Maths on how they're modelling turnout? Could this explain the discrepancy in the polling?0 -
I was wrong, Prince Charles becoming King will not be the best thing to happen to the Republican cause, it is this interview with Prince Andrew.0
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Speaking of interesting medical conditions, can I recommend the Pneumonia Diet? I lost half a stone in four days.
This was helped by the hospital food: not that it was bad, but potion control has never been my strong suite.0 -
The day the polls turned0
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So you can trust none of them. All they know is Corbyn is toxic.basicbridge said:
Why?CorrectHorseBattery said:The strange thing is we simultanouesly see Labour's best result of the campaign so far of 33% and yet all see the Tories having their best at 45%
Somebody is going to get the result extraordinarily wrong but I have no idea who. I hope it's the pollsters with big leads!
We need Survation to settle this!
Survation may be both wrong and complacent, the others having all adjusted their methodology after their last debacles...0 -
Nah, there have been tossers in the line to the throne since time immemorial.TheScreamingEagles said:I was wrong, Prince Charles becoming King will not be the best thing to happen to the Republican cause, it is this interview with Prince Andrew.
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Tomorrow's Sunil on Sunday ELBOW should be, ah, "interesting"Foxy said:
Though this line is quite a caveat:Sunil_Prasannan said:
"The biggest Tory lead with YouGov since May 2017, a month before the last election" 0 -
^ Thisfelix said:I have been deeply ashamed of the many Labour moderate MP:s who hate JC but have gone completely silent since the calling of the GE as they campaign to let him get his hands on power. If the polls stay roughly the same I wonder if they maight gain some courage and finally if belatedly speak up. LOtherwise frankly they all fully deserve to sink without trace alongside him.
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PMSL we were joking saying maybe 1 seat majority in your model but you're seriously going with 1 seat short of a majority on tonights polls? 😂😂😂Barnesian said:Effect all five polls tonight;
Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
LD 15.3 (-1.1)
BXP 7.5 (-0.9)
Seats
Con 324 (+5)
Lab 221 (-3)
LD 32 (-2)0 -
It is called "Being a woman"FrancisUrquhart said:He reveals a “peculiar medical condition which is that I don’t sweat or I didn’t sweat at the time".
We do not sweat. We glow from within
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No, but that's a very pessimistic expectation of turnout for most of the demographic bands.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/loubegatherion/status/1195789319249760258
Anyone done the Maths on how they're modelling turnout? Could this explain the discrepancy in the polling?0 -
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The BMG poll can't be taken entirely seriously because apparently they haven't taken into account the fact that the Brexit Party aren't standing everywhere. That's why the Brexit Party are higher than in the other polls.0
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Tbf in view of the latest polls I think it's Jezza that may be benefit from the deceased feline tonight.Casino_Royale said:Prince Andrew must be a friend of Boris.
This is one hell of a dead cat.
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That's an effective majority of six I think.Casino_Royale said:
Still two short, eh? 😉Barnesian said:Effect all five polls tonight;
Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
LD 15.3 (-1.1)
BXP 7.5 (-0.9)
Seats
Con 324 (+5)
Lab 221 (-3)
LD 32 (-2)0 -
Certainty to vote is the hardest thing for pollsters to get right, but a massive difference to outcomes.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/loubegatherion/status/1195789319249760258
Anyone done the Maths on how they're modelling turnout? Could this explain the discrepancy in the polling?0 -
Did he really say that his problem was that he was too honourable ?TheScreamingEagles said:I was wrong, Prince Charles becoming King will not be the best thing to happen to the Republican cause, it is this interview with Prince Andrew.
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Dishonourable people have a very skewed view of what is honourable behaviour of course. Wouldn't want to make a fuss. Or its like those rich nobility in period dramas who are massively rude yet think they are the soul of politeness.Nigelb said:
Did he really say that his problem was that he was too honourable ?TheScreamingEagles said:I was wrong, Prince Charles becoming King will not be the best thing to happen to the Republican cause, it is this interview with Prince Andrew.
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Yes, and he said that being friends with a nonce was not something he regretted because of the deals he made from that friendship.Nigelb said:
Did he really say that his problem was that he was too honourable ?TheScreamingEagles said:I was wrong, Prince Charles becoming King will not be the best thing to happen to the Republican cause, it is this interview with Prince Andrew.
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Cameron managed to bag 306 seats in 2010 off 36% of the vote, despite only taking one seat in Scotland and with the Lib Dems a full 8% higher than in your current rolling average.Barnesian said:Effect all five polls tonight;
Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
LD 15.3 (-1.1)
BXP 7.5 (-0.9)
Seats
Con 324 (+5)
Lab 221 (-3)
LD 32 (-2)
The boundaries haven't changed since.
Now, how does an 11% Con lead not translate into some sort of majority?
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Bookies won't pay out on that though!Barnesian said:
That's an effective majority of six I think.Casino_Royale said:
Still two short, eh? 😉Barnesian said:Effect all five polls tonight;
Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
LD 15.3 (-1.1)
BXP 7.5 (-0.9)
Seats
Con 324 (+5)
Lab 221 (-3)
LD 32 (-2)0 -
If they’re still up the PaddyPower markets for Welsh Tory targets: Gower, Delyn, Bridgend and Alyn and Deeside would all look very interesting for the Tories on these numbers.
They were at evens or slightly longer earlier today.0 -
Averages of the 5 polls tonight including BMG:
Con 42.4%
Lab 29.6%
LD 14.0%
BRX 6.0%
Averages without BMG (which isn't adjusting for the Brexit Party standing in only a minority of seats)
Con 43.8%
Lab 29.8%
LD 13.5%
BRX 5.3%0 -
Just found the Tories in Hartlepool on Betfair at 5.0.
I know Richard Tice is running but I'd have thought the Tory vote would be reasonably resilient up there ? Also Tory candidate is from the north east whereas Tice errm... is definitely not.
Also on Labour here from previous around even money.1 -
Anyway, enough excitement for one evening.
Still 3 1/2 weeks to go and anything can happen.2 -
And Trump is probably only the third creepiest pervert in the White House in my lifetime, whereas the UK throne has been unblemished throughout.Casino_Royale said:
Nah, there have been tossers in the line to the throne since time immemorial.TheScreamingEagles said:I was wrong, Prince Charles becoming King will not be the best thing to happen to the Republican cause, it is this interview with Prince Andrew.
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BTW, people who are easily triggered should avoid the film Last Christmas due to some Brexit references in it.0
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The vote is very unevenly distributed. There are lumps of SNP and LD concentrations and piles of redundant votes in safe Tory seats. The quoted lead is a single metric of the national Tory lead over Labour. It is not reliable in this strange election.kle4 said:
Still no majority on 11.4% lead? Blimey that's rough for FPTP.Barnesian said:Effect all five polls tonight;
Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
LD 15.3 (-1.1)
BXP 7.5 (-0.9)
Seats
Con 324 (+5)
Lab 221 (-3)
LD 32 (-2)
But dyor or use your own heuristics. I'm not trying to persuade anyone. I'm just sharing the result of a detailed constituency model that doesn't just use simplistic swings or top down rules of thumb and tries to model the lumpiness of the votes and tactical voting.0 -
Least he’s honest.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, and he said that being friends with a nonce was not something he regretted because of the deals he made from that friendship.Nigelb said:
Did he really say that his problem was that he was too honourable ?TheScreamingEagles said:I was wrong, Prince Charles becoming King will not be the best thing to happen to the Republican cause, it is this interview with Prince Andrew.
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BMG? Sorry, seem to have missed that in all of this evening's, er, "excitement".Andy_JS said:Averages of the 5 polls tonight including BMG:
Con 42.4%
Lab 29.6%
LD 14.0%
BRX 6.0%
Averages without BMG:
Con 43.8%
Lab 29.8%
LD 13.5%
BRX 5.3%0 -
Lets compare to the 2015 General Election as a sanity check.Barnesian said:
That's an effective majority of six I think.Casino_Royale said:
Still two short, eh? 😉Barnesian said:Effect all five polls tonight;
Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
LD 15.3 (-1.1)
BXP 7.5 (-0.9)
Seats
Con 324 (+5)
Lab 221 (-3)
LD 32 (-2)
Tories UP 4.0% - yet DOWN 6 seats
Labour DOWN 0.3% - DOWN 11 seats
Lib Dems UP 7.4% - UP 24 seats
Tory-Lab Lead UP 4.3%
Please explain.0 -
Wokingham was never on the table. Totnes is still very much on the table due to Wollaston's personal vote (regardless of marqueemark's attempts to deny it). I think Eastleigh may be possible, partly because of the appalling behaviour of Mims Davies in doing the chicken run. Of other seats Southport and Cheadle are the more obvious northern seats which are vulnerable, and St Ives is possible in the SW. One additionally interesting seat is Vauxhall as, although it is Labour held, a LD win will deprive Boris of a solid Brexit vote.Brom said:Bit rich of the Guardian to say all 3 constituency polls are tight. Fair to say even if Finchley isn’t on the money that Luciana Berger is a gonner. Kensington is a real 3 way marginal if Labour have a surge and then Wimbledon looks 50/50 really, though I suppose if Boris was to lose any MP then Hammond would be near the top of the list!
I think at this stage Lib Dem potential England gains from the Tories look like St Albans, Richmond, Guildford, South Cambs, Putney, Lewes, Winchester, Cheltenham. Wokingham, Finchley and Totnes are probably off the table but there are bound to be a few others I’ve overlooked like Hazel Grove or Wells. But primarily they are in the South East and the ceiling looks like 10-12.
I am expecting 25-30 LD seats. The existing ones should hold. Add circa 10 gains from the conservatives from the various seats we have listed, 4-5 from Labour (Cambridge/LeedsNW/Sheffield Hallam/Vauxhall/Bermondsey) and 1-2 from the Nats (NE Fife/Ceredigion).0 -
I've got a great track record with my political preditctions over the past few years. I predicted:
A hung parliament in the 2015 GE
Remain would win the EU ref
Hilary to win 2016 POTUS
A Tory landslide in the 2017 GE
May's deal to pass the HoC
May to lead the Tories into the 2022 GE
Boris to fail to get a new Deal
No December 2019 election
I'd just like to make another prediction: Tories to win a majority in 2019.
Here's hoping I maintain my predicting consistency! 0 -
Corbyn has the confidence of the utterly certain individual. I bet right now he is looking at the larger Tory leads in several polls and thinking that will only make his truth speaking in the debate even more powerful in polling effect afterwards. McDonnell, not so much I think.0
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Listen Black Book.....Barnesian is my only hope....do not burst my bubble pleaseBlack_Rook said:
Cameron managed to bag 306 seats in 2010 off 36% of the vote, despite only taking one seat in Scotland and with the Lib Dems a full 8% higher than in your current rolling average.Barnesian said:Effect all five polls tonight;
Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
LD 15.3 (-1.1)
BXP 7.5 (-0.9)
Seats
Con 324 (+5)
Lab 221 (-3)
LD 32 (-2)
The boundaries haven't changed since.
Now, how does an 11% Con lead not translate into some sort of majority?
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Isn't this normally the time in the evening when Justin pops up and tells us they are actually good polls for Labour?1
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And yet Yougov say that the Tories are doing even better where it matters. Not sure how that is consistent with your model.Barnesian said:
The vote is very unevenly distributed. There are lumps of SNP and LD concentrations and piles of redundant votes in safe Tory seats. The quoted lead is a single metric of the national Tory lead over Labour. It is not reliable in this strange election.kle4 said:
Still no majority on 11.4% lead? Blimey that's rough for FPTP.Barnesian said:Effect all five polls tonight;
Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
LD 15.3 (-1.1)
BXP 7.5 (-0.9)
Seats
Con 324 (+5)
Lab 221 (-3)
LD 32 (-2)1 -
These opinion polls with growing Conservative leads seem broadly correct to me as a Lib Dem activist living in a Lab/Con marginal. It doesn't feel at all like 2017 out there. I think Labour are in for a thrashing. The poll showing my party on 11% maybe doesn't feel quite right but the broad picture from all of tonight's polls does.
I think too many people from all parties have been scarred for life by 2017.2 -
I accept that there is very uneven distribution, but at some point even with uneven distribution I'd think a lead of sufficient size will win out to a small majority. Where the point is I do not know, but at some point a big lead cannot all be piling up in the wrong place surely?Barnesian said:
The vote is very unevenly distributed. There are lumps of SNP and LD concentrations and piles of redundant votes in safe Tory seats. The quoted lead is a single metric of the national Tory lead over Labour. It is not reliable in this strange election.kle4 said:
Still no majority on 11.4% lead? Blimey that's rough for FPTP.Barnesian said:Effect all five polls tonight;
Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
LD 15.3 (-1.1)
BXP 7.5 (-0.9)
Seats
Con 324 (+5)
Lab 221 (-3)
LD 32 (-2)0 -
Normally a11% lead would be 100 Maj.
The unwind in the marginals doesn't help us but if we are 11% clear we have a majority. Probably 30 to 500 -
I think the theoretical highest vote share for a party that doesn't win a majority is about 74.9%, maybe more with differential turnout and unevenly sized constituencies, but the Conservative vote must be close to record badly distributed in your model.Barnesian said:
The vote is very unevenly distributed. There are lumps of SNP and LD concentrations and piles of redundant votes in safe Tory seats. The quoted lead is a single metric of the national Tory lead over Labour. It is not reliable in this strange election.kle4 said:
Still no majority on 11.4% lead? Blimey that's rough for FPTP.Barnesian said:Effect all five polls tonight;
Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
LD 15.3 (-1.1)
BXP 7.5 (-0.9)
Seats
Con 324 (+5)
Lab 221 (-3)
LD 32 (-2)0 -
Conservatives at 5/2 to win Don Valley on Betfair might be of interest as well.Pulpstar said:Just found the Tories in Hartlepool on Betfair at 5.0.
I know Richard Tice is running but I'd have thought the Tory vote would be reasonably resilient up there ? Also Tory candidate is from the north east whereas Tice errm... is definitely not.
Also on Labour here from previous around even money.
How much of a personal vote CF has built among Labour leavers is the big question.0 -
Welcome to PB!IshmaelZ said:
And Trump is probably only the third creepiest pervert in the White House in my lifetime, whereas the UK throne has been unblemished throughout.Casino_Royale said:
Nah, there have been tossers in the line to the throne since time immemorial.TheScreamingEagles said:I was wrong, Prince Charles becoming King will not be the best thing to happen to the Republican cause, it is this interview with Prince Andrew.
Edit: Are you 250 years old btw?0 -
Sweatless nonce. Shame Tom Watson didn't go after him when he was truffle hunting pedos1
