Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Focus on Wokingham where two ex-CON MPs are slugging it out ag

12346

Comments

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Tories up to 2017 VI with Panelbase. Getting fruity
  • Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 5% (-3)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 13 - 14 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

    This was before the free internet for all. I still just can't see the Tories getting this 42-43%, I just can't. Where as Labour are definitely getting 30%, maybe more.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    AndyJS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sean_F said:

    I see Survation have a poll for Reading West, giving Con 50%, Lab 26%, a swing of 9% from 2017.

    Since 1983 the party winning Reading West has been the winner of the election...
    Interestingly in 2005 Reading West was a Labour hold while Reading East was a Conservative gain. Now they're held by the opposite parties.
    According to wiki the 2010 boundary changes put a large new private housing estate into Reading West, which would probably have helped the Tory candidate.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 5% (-3)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 13 - 14 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

    This was before the free internet for all. I still just can't see the Tories getting this 42-43%, I just can't. Where as Labour are definitely getting 30%, maybe more.
    There are going to be many many more “free X for all” announcements in the coming weeks. :)
  • Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 5% (-3)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 13 - 14 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

    This was before the free internet for all. I still just can't see the Tories getting this 42-43%, I just can't. Where as Labour are definitely getting 30%, maybe more.
    The broadband offer is being comprehensively dished in the Evening Standard
  • PhilPhil Posts: 1,919
    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    glw said:

    Floater said:

    Mr McDonnell said that if other broadband providers did not want to give access to British Broadband, then they would also be taken into public ownership.

    Chilling...do what the government say or we will seize your business.

    Now, about inwards business investment......
    Just raising the prospect of nationalisation will have a chilling effect.

    In fact a quick Google and I found this.


    Labour broadband pledge stalls TalkTalk sale
    A deal to sell FibreNation to CityFibre has been postponed until after the general election, Sky News understands.

    https://news.sky.com/story/labour-broadband-pledge-stalls-talktalk-sale-11861708

    Damage already done by the Labour Party.
    Socialism - destroying peoples lives since inception
    The NHS says hi.
    Thats nice - but it's not socialism either.
    It is 100% socialism. Free at the point of use, based on need, provided by or on behalf of the government, paid for by our taxes. I believe they call it "socialised medicine" in America.
    Well - I would disagree

    But its hardly best in class either is it

    Oh and they protect themselves rather than admit to failings - that is very much like socialism I suppose

    Point of order: the NHS is one of the more cost efficient health services in the world. Is is a top class service? No. But we aren’t paying for top class service - we’re paying for “the most health care you can get for just under 10% of GDP”. The problems that the NHS is having at the moment are mostly due to the slashing of social care budgets elsewhere by the current government, resulting in bed blocking on a massive scale as elderly patients who cannot be moved out of hospital. Fix social care & you’ll solve most of the NHS’s immediate problems at a stroke. (Fix the oncoming tidal wave of diabetes related illness & NHS managers will worship at your feet, but that’s a completely different barrel of problems.)

    Meanwhile the US spends 18% of GDP to get very good healthcare for the few & roughtly NHS-grade healthcare (worse if you believe some stories) for retirees and veterans, France and Germany spend around 12% of GDP.
  • AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    I see Survation have a poll for Reading West, giving Con 50%, Lab 26%, a swing of 9% from 2017.

    My family is broadly from three of the wards listed.

    "The Borough of Reading wards of Battle, Kentwood, Minster, Norcot, Southcote, Tilehurst, and Whitley, and the District of West Berkshire wards of Birch Copse, Calcot, Pangbourne, Purley on Thames, Theale, and Westwood"

    Imagine a place populated entirely by Jay's Dad off of The Inbetweeners.
    Reading West includes the town centre I think, which is probably why Labour held it in 2005 while losing Reading East which only includes the posh suburbs. But now the Tories are more popular in Reading West while Reading East may be difficult for them to win.
    The town centre is in Abbey ward which is in East and not posh. While East does include Caversham, it also includes Redlands where a lot of the Reading uni students live. Hence why Lab did so well.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 5% (-3)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 13 - 14 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

    This was before the free internet for all. I still just can't see the Tories getting this 42-43%, I just can't. Where as Labour are definitely getting 30%, maybe more.
    The broadband offer is being comprehensively dished in the Evening Standard
    You could say things are becoming a bit.. unbundled.


    Ah, my coat. :)
  • RobD said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 5% (-3)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 13 - 14 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

    This was before the free internet for all. I still just can't see the Tories getting this 42-43%, I just can't. Where as Labour are definitely getting 30%, maybe more.
    There are going to be many many more “free X for all” announcements in the coming weeks. :)
    I am just waiting for Boris to abolish all taxes and re-establish workhouses for the feckless....
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    kinabalu said:

    SunnyJim said:

    There are millions like it; just drones never straying far from the hive.

    I have considered this argument - floated often here and elsewhere - that Labour supporters are mindless numpties who vote purely out of habit and tribalism whereas supporters of other parties are independent freethinkers with a restless, roving intellect who carefully and objectively weigh up what's best for the country and vote accordingly.

    And I'm not convinced.
    I agree with you however you would hardly say I’m a mindless numpty when Invote for Labour. If the premise was true you would hardly come to a blog where people discuss politics to find habitualised non thinking labour supporters
  • Jason said:

    Tories have moved out a bit on majority to 1.65. was 1.57 some of yesterday

    Hopefully reading too much into this but feeling a bit uneasy!

    Bad polling incoming?
    Here comes the collective nervous breakdown.............
    Noo said:

    https://twitter.com/HighlandCouncil/status/1195315644281081856

    Transfers from Labour
    Green 18
    Lib Dem 29
    Conservative 4
    Independent 26
    SNP 18

    So much for the Scottish Tories pinning their hopes on tactical support from Labour voters. Boris Johnson is pretty much the perfect Scot repellent.

  • Then there is the issue of European law. This is not the EU laws of state aid and public procurement. In practice (as with the bank Northern Rock), the EU laws that many socialists consider antipathetical to nationalisation are easily side-stepped. Other EU countries have a range of entities in public ownership with no problems from EU law — such as France produces passports in house while Britain sends theirs to tender. EU competition law (of which state aid and public procurement are elements) apply to unfair competition and uncommercial preferences, not to the matter of ownership.

    No, the European law which bites is not EU law but the European Convention on Human Rights. The ECHR contains a “right to property” that expressly extends to legal persons, such as corporations, as well as natural persons. The right can be rarely relied on absolutely, but it provides the basis for obtaining fair compensation when property is acquired by the state. This goes for compulsory purchase orders (for, say, properties on a proposed railway line) as for the renationalisation of a private company. Even if a UK government uses primary legislation, compensation is due; there cannot be confiscations. And no Labour government is likely to propose the UK ceases to be bound by the ECHR.


    https://www.ft.com/content/c00d8684-788c-11e9-bbad-7c18c0ea0201
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    @PanelbaseMD @panelbase GB poll (changes since Nov 06-08)

    Westminster #GE2019
    Con 43% (+3%)
    Lab 30% (NC)
    Lib Dem 15% (NC)
    Brexit Party 5% (-3%)
    Green 2% (-1%)

    EU Referendum
    Remain 52% (-1%)
    Leave 48% (+1%)

    Fieldwork Nov 13-14

    Methodology note in graphic. https://t.co/lhNm51BrKY


    Panel previously the worst pollster for the Tories. Methodological changes from several pollsters probably throwing house effects out the window though - very difficult for the poll aggregators now.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited November 2019
    Methodology note in graphic (its effect is small):

    https://twitter.com/PanelbaseMD/status/1195356661285838849?s=20
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited November 2019

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 5% (-3)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 13 - 14 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

    This was before the free internet for all. I still just can't see the Tories getting this 42-43%, I just can't. Where as Labour are definitely getting 30%, maybe more.
    I agree that it “feels” wrong, and I’ve been asking myself why. I can’t speak for you but my reference point for big leads is Blair, and Cameron before the crash. At those times you had a sense that the party/leader with the massive lead was actively liked. By contrast, the coalition and then the Tory Gvts I’ve had a sense of the public saying “oh, go on then”.

    I’ve been asking myself if the difference is that I’m in my own bubble, and my sense are off, and out in the country Boris is just liked. The favourability polling does seem to suggest he is, for many. Though he has a vocal set of those that can’t stand him.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    RobD said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 5% (-3)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 13 - 14 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

    Methodology changes? Nice to see Labour static for a change ;)
    Methodology change is to account for parties not being present in all seats. Boosts Tories by 1%, doesn't affect Labour or Lib Dem.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited November 2019
    Ok, so a +2 opinion shift and a +1 methodology shift? (modulo rounding)
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:


    Now you come to mention it I think you are right! A successful economy and society will always have a bit of socialism and a bit of capitalism. The argument is where the line should be drawn. I see it as a pragmatic choice and I find all the hysteria on here about Venezuela etc to be ridiculous. Tories would do much better to attack Labour on competence than all these sixth form debates about Hugo Chavez.

    Precisely. My rubric is, if competition is possible AND beneficial to the "customer", if should be privately run. If not, it should be state run.
    Things like infrastructure have to be state run, because you can't really have multiple train lines running alongside one another, so competition is a non-starter. Things like supermarkets can compete very easily, so it should be in the hands of the private sector: competition will sort out quality and price.

    Healthcare is a difficult one because although competition is eminently possible, it's not necessarily beneficial. Part of healthcare is knowing what not to do. Private healthcare creates incentives to upsell and cross-sell, and when medicines can be harmful, addictive that's a recipe for bad outcomes. Furthermore, it's easy to tell whether the pasta your Tesco sells is good or not, it's not easy to tell whether medical interventions are good. Chemotherapy make people feel terrible, but it can help to rid a patient of cancer. Medicine is way beyond the ken of the average punter and concepts like value and quality along with it.

    Lastly, I don't even know that having something run by the government is "socialism". It's not worker-owned. Indeed, you can have private industry heavily involved. There is room for serious debate about these issues, instead we are served infantile soundbites. For now I operate on the basis that state run is correlated with, but not the same as socialism.
    So you are against the Commie Cable Co policy with their one sized fit all free ISP service? As internet service provision benefits from competition. All the countries with the best consumer internet have fierce competition in this market.
    I have to say I don't know. Can we have rival infrastructures? Well, some parts of the country do, but for others, small towns and villages it mightn't be viable.
    And as for the ISP side of things it's a bit like all these different energy suppliers. It's the same gas coming through the mains, but your billing and customer service is handled by a different lot. Most people never switch, which is a sign that competition isn't really a major driver. It's an edge case under my rubric, so I choose not to takes sides but I'm open to reasoned arguments. I mean something above the level of "this will destroy your life!!!1! / Squeeze the bastards dry!!!1!"
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Without exception the broadband thing is being utterly laughed at by our IT department. Not just laughing but outright ridicule.

    Laughed at. Like a joke. Labour isn’t a serious party.
  • AndyJS said:

    nico67 said:

    The Electoral Calculus latest projection will have some Tories in here ringing the Samaritan’s !

    Same average poll numbers with Flavible which I think is a better seat predictor, (with EC in brackets):

    Con 373 (349)
    Lab 178 (214)
    SNP 46 (45)
    LD 30 (19)
    PC 4 (4)
    Grn 1 (1)

    https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction
    Looking at Electoral Calculus, Baxter seems to have increased the Brexit-ness or Remain-ness of a seat as a factor. For example, he has the Tories to take Birmingham Northfield with a 4k majority but not Keighley with a 249 majority (I assume as the former was more Brexity)

    He now has Lab to slightly increase their majority in Kensington, which I'm not sure I believe, but for the Cons to retake Canterbury.

    He has also increased the number of Con losses to the SNP from 2 to 5, which feels more realistic, while keeping Con to LD losses at 2 (Richmond Pk and Cheltenham)
    What does it have for "50/50" Wokingham?
    Redwood winning by 12,000 votes.

    Looking at EC some more they have Cons taking Bury South with a 6k majority but not Bury North with a 4k majority. Both seats were equally Brexity so must be a MRP element perhaps picking up a greater swing in Bury South due to the large Jewish population.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Pulpstar said:

    Reading East must surely be a Tory target at this election ?

    62% Remain according to Hanretty, so seems unlikely. Reading West split 52:48 for Leave (edit: mistakenly said Remain before). The Survation poll looks odd though given the same pollster puts the Conservatives just 5.5% ahead nationally and regional polling suggests Labour's vote is holding up better in the SE.
    Survation have found some huge swings against the Conservatives at constituency level, so there must be offsetting swings elsewhere.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    RobD said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 5% (-3)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 13 - 14 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

    Methodology changes? Nice to see Labour static for a change ;)
    Labour stuck on 30%, I'm sure they will crawl upwards gradually but now BXP have stood down Tories will be the right side of 40% unless they have a campaign meltdown.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 5% (-3)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 13 - 14 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

    Methodology changes? Nice to see Labour static for a change ;)
    Methodology change is to account for parties not being present in all seats. Boosts Tories by 1%, doesn't affect Labour or Lib Dem.
    Thats why I was getting at. I should use more precise wording!
  • Sean_F said:

    I see Survation have a poll for Reading West, giving Con 50%, Lab 26%, a swing of 9% from 2017.

    My family is broadly from three of the wards listed.

    "The Borough of Reading wards of Battle, Kentwood, Minster, Norcot, Southcote, Tilehurst, and Whitley, and the District of West Berkshire wards of Birch Copse, Calcot, Pangbourne, Purley on Thames, Theale, and Westwood"

    Imagine a place populated entirely by Jay's Dad off of The Inbetweeners.
    I've seen some genuinely scary individuals board the train at Reading West over the years.
  • Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 5% (-3)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 13 - 14 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

    This was before the free internet for all. I still just can't see the Tories getting this 42-43%, I just can't. Where as Labour are definitely getting 30%, maybe more.
    The broadband offer is being comprehensively dished in the Evening Standard
    People don't want to listen to experts / journos. I genuinely worry we might get another ah f##k it lets turn over the apple cart ala Brexit, as we know the lower middle class especially have done really poorly since the recession.
  • RobD said:

    Ok, so a +2 opinion shift and a +1 methodology shift? (modulo rounding)
    Solid poll for the Tories... should ease the jitters a little
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    edited November 2019

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 5% (-3)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 13 - 14 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

    This was before the free internet for all. I still just can't see the Tories getting this 42-43%, I just can't. Where as Labour are definitely getting 30%, maybe more.
    The "free internet for all" really only plays for those out in the boondocks, where superfast broadband is currently but a dream - and where Labour is a rounding error on the vote.....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Any boffin want to work out why BXP didn’t go down by half if they are only fielding 300 candidates? Doesn’t that imply the share in the 300 they stood down in was actually really small?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Flavible using the new Panelbase poll:

    Con 391
    Lab 168
    SNP 41
    LD 27
    PC 4
    Grn 1

  • PhilPhil Posts: 1,919
    Brom said:

    RobD said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 5% (-3)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 13 - 14 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

    Methodology changes? Nice to see Labour static for a change ;)
    Labour stuck on 30%, I'm sure they will crawl upwards gradually but now BXP have stood down Tories will be the right side of 40% unless they have a campaign meltdown.
    Boris’ performance when put in front of the public so far hasn’t been great, so this doesn’t seem outside the bounds of possibility.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2019
    Noo said:



    I have to say I don't know. Can we have rival infrastructures? Well, some parts of the country do, but for others, small towns and villages it mightn't be viable.
    And as for the ISP side of things it's a bit like all these different energy suppliers. It's the same gas coming through the mains, but your billing and customer service is handled by a different lot. Most people never switch, which is a sign that competition isn't really a major driver. It's an edge case under my rubric, so I choose not to takes sides but I'm open to reasoned arguments. I mean something above the level of "this will destroy your life!!!1! / Squeeze the bastards dry!!!1!"

    As I said, the infrastructure side of things is where the UK government / BT haven't done well enough.

    But ISPs isn't like energy suppliers at all. People need very different levels of internet provision. The "pipe" needs to be different sizes, in both up and down directions and this differs widely for different people. Labour proposal is one exactly identical service for everybody.

    A far more sensible policy would have been yes put money into infrastructure, make internet a human right (like water / electricity), more public free wifi and offer free / subsidized internet to the poorest in society selected from the existing range of ISPs.

    This is pretty much the strategy of Estonia and they have the most connected society in Europe and a thriving tech start-up scene.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 5% (-3)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 13 - 14 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

    This was before the free internet for all. I still just can't see the Tories getting this 42-43%, I just can't. Where as Labour are definitely getting 30%, maybe more.
    I agree that it “feels” wrong, and I’ve been asking myself why. I can’t speak for you but my reference point for big leads is Blair, and Cameron before the crash. At those times you had a sense that the party/leader with the massive lead was actively liked. By contrast, the coalition and then the Tory Gvts I’ve had a sense of the public saying “oh, go on then”.

    I’ve been asking myself if the difference is that I’m in my own bubble, and my sense are off, and out in the country Boris is just liked. The favourability polling does seem to suggest he is, for many. Though he has a vocal set of those that can’t stand him.
    It might feel wrong but even if Boris has a 5 point lead rather than a 13 point one the Tories will scrape a majority. Labour need a Corbyn surge but I'm not sure people will fall for the 'free stuff' announcements.

    As I posted before 3/4 weeks before the 2017 election we had "Ooh Jeremy Corbyn" chanted around stadiums. I'm not sure the same people are so receptive to the bullshit anymore. Perhaps the Watford approach of changing your leader for each election has some benefits with the electorate and stops the Tories appearing tired.

    Anyway a lot can change but feet need to be kept on the ground and the threat of the far left will not be seen off until polling day.
  • Do you remember the rule of thumb on this site pre-2010? “If Cameron is on the telly then Tory share goes up, whatever the reason”. I wonder if Boris has the same charms.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    Brom said:

    RobD said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 5% (-3)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 13 - 14 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

    Methodology changes? Nice to see Labour static for a change ;)
    Labour stuck on 30%, I'm sure they will crawl upwards gradually but now BXP have stood down Tories will be the right side of 40% unless they have a campaign meltdown.
    The Tories were on the right side (for them) of 40% last time, just saying.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Just a hunch, but I don't think a winter campaign suits Corbyn at all.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Phil said:

    Brom said:

    RobD said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 5% (-3)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 13 - 14 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

    Methodology changes? Nice to see Labour static for a change ;)
    Labour stuck on 30%, I'm sure they will crawl upwards gradually but now BXP have stood down Tories will be the right side of 40% unless they have a campaign meltdown.
    Boris’ performance when put in front of the public so far hasn’t been great, so this doesn’t seem outside the bounds of possibility.
    It's very possible. He does OK interviews, no real gaffes so far. But complacency will be the downfall if anything.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    43% for Con with Panelbase is a very big number!

    YouGov might have then at 45% tomorrow? :D
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited November 2019

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 5% (-3)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 13 - 14 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

    This was before the free internet for all. I still just can't see the Tories getting this 42-43%, I just can't. Where as Labour are definitely getting 30%, maybe more.
    The "free internet for all" really only plays for those out in the boondocks, where superfast broadband is urrently but a dream - and where Labour is a rounding error on the vote.....
    .. and where the residents are generally old enough to remember the nightmare of the last time we had nationalised telecoms.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    RobD said:

    Ok, so a +2 opinion shift and a +1 methodology shift? (modulo rounding)
    It rather jives with what I'm seeing - most people have already made up their mind. Take away BXP and those who want Brexit done go Tory. Otherwise people have decided on Boris, Corbyn and Swinson.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited November 2019

    Brom said:

    RobD said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 5% (-3)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 13 - 14 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

    Methodology changes? Nice to see Labour static for a change ;)
    Labour stuck on 30%, I'm sure they will crawl upwards gradually but now BXP have stood down Tories will be the right side of 40% unless they have a campaign meltdown.
    The Tories were on the right side (for them) of 40% last time, just saying.
    Labour improved throughout the campaign last time. Remains to be seen if history will repeat itself.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Brom said:

    RobD said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 5% (-3)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 13 - 14 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

    Methodology changes? Nice to see Labour static for a change ;)
    Labour stuck on 30%, I'm sure they will crawl upwards gradually but now BXP have stood down Tories will be the right side of 40% unless they have a campaign meltdown.
    The Tories were on the right side (for them) of 40% last time, just saying.
    Yes but so were Labour. Unless the Lib Dems are being squeezed to single figures this seems unlikely this time around. Even if the Tories hit 317 it might be enough to get the deal through given their new influx of MPs, though the aim is 330 plus.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Flavible has Pidcock gone on the panelbase numbers and in Scotland 10 Tories if we give the SNP 4% (nationally), losing Ayr, Ochil and Gordon
    This does seem optimistic in Scotland but Pidders is a goner ;)
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Brom said:

    Brom said:

    RobD said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 5% (-3)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 13 - 14 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

    Methodology changes? Nice to see Labour static for a change ;)
    Labour stuck on 30%, I'm sure they will crawl upwards gradually but now BXP have stood down Tories will be the right side of 40% unless they have a campaign meltdown.
    The Tories were on the right side (for them) of 40% last time, just saying.
    Yes but so were Labour. Unless the Lib Dems are being squeezed to single figures this seems unlikely this time around. Even if the Tories hit 317 it might be enough to get the deal through given their new influx of MPs, though the aim is 330 plus.
    I don't know. Momentum are out in droves, pounding the doorsteps. They will generate a big Labour turnout and convert a lot of switchers.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    edited November 2019

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    glw said:

    Andrew said:

    I wouldn't be quite so worried about Sky and Virgin, they can fall back on TV revenues.

    I disagree, without the bundling of services (phone, TV, broadband, and mobile) they would be very vulnerable to OTT services like Netflix and Amazon.
    Also, would anybody be shocked if Labour "nationalized" all tv sports broadcast rights. Only the Commie Cable.Co and the BBC can show them.

    Jezza hates that rich people fund EPL clubs. Nationalize the league and the broadcast right and only allow supporter owned clubs.
    That might be a stretch - but a review of the crown jewels list wouldn't surprise me.
    The PB Tories just making up policies now.
    FFS - I would support such a review. That luvvies are afforded wall to wall coverage of Wimbledon paid for in that most unique of ways really boils my piss.
    Agreed. My post was really aimed at Francis! It's ridiculous that events like the Cricket World Cup aren't crown jewels.
    Are you not excited for the 100 on BBC next year?
    I already have all the sports channels on cable, so it won't affect me personally. It's good to see some cricket on terrestrial however, might inspire some youngsters.
  • Mr. Ozymandias, they won't be laughing if Labour wins...
  • Sean_F said:

    I see Survation have a poll for Reading West, giving Con 50%, Lab 26%, a swing of 9% from 2017.

    My family is broadly from three of the wards listed.

    "The Borough of Reading wards of Battle, Kentwood, Minster, Norcot, Southcote, Tilehurst, and Whitley, and the District of West Berkshire wards of Birch Copse, Calcot, Pangbourne, Purley on Thames, Theale, and Westwood"

    Imagine a place populated entirely by Jay's Dad off of The Inbetweeners.
    I've seen some genuinely scary individuals board the train at Reading West over the years.
    Aye, Reading West is in what is probably the ropiest part of Reading.

    Tilehurst (which essentially also contains Kentwood, Norcot, Battle and Westwood) is the bit on the hill, where the white van men of Whitley retire to when they've made a bit of cash.
  • Where Britons most want to trade with post Brexit:
    - Canada: 83%
    - The EU: 81%
    - Australia: 81%
    - India: 72%
    - USA: 69%
    https://t.co/qjFgGfytEm https://t.co/4RNWUyy2s0
  • GIN1138 said:

    43% for Con with Panelbase is a very big number!

    YouGov might have then at 45% tomorrow? :D

    Careful Gin. Fingers crossed but ..........
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    RobD said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 5% (-3)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 13 - 14 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

    This was before the free internet for all. I still just can't see the Tories getting this 42-43%, I just can't. Where as Labour are definitely getting 30%, maybe more.
    There are going to be many many more “free X for all” announcements in the coming weeks. :)
    Greens just announced Universal income - 89 quid a week, 84billion a year.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    Brom said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 5% (-3)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 13 - 14 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

    This was before the free internet for all. I still just can't see the Tories getting this 42-43%, I just can't. Where as Labour are definitely getting 30%, maybe more.
    I agree that it “feels” wrong, and I’ve been asking myself why. I can’t speak for you but my reference point for big leads is Blair, and Cameron before the crash. At those times you had a sense that the party/leader with the massive lead was actively liked. By contrast, the coalition and then the Tory Gvts I’ve had a sense of the public saying “oh, go on then”.

    I’ve been asking myself if the difference is that I’m in my own bubble, and my sense are off, and out in the country Boris is just liked. The favourability polling does seem to suggest he is, for many. Though he has a vocal set of those that can’t stand him.
    It might feel wrong but even if Boris has a 5 point lead rather than a 13 point one the Tories will scrape a majority. Labour need a Corbyn surge but I'm not sure people will fall for the 'free stuff' announcements.

    As I posted before 3/4 weeks before the 2017 election we had "Ooh Jeremy Corbyn" chanted around stadiums. I'm not sure the same people are so receptive to the bullshit anymore. Perhaps the Watford approach of changing your leader for each election has some benefits with the electorate and stops the Tories appearing tired.

    Anyway a lot can change but feet need to be kept on the ground and the threat of the far left will not be seen off until polling day.
    As I have said quite a few times already, in 2017 the Tory polling lead of 17-18% didn't begin to reduce until 21 days ahead of the GE. Then it reduced slowly but consistently day by day.

    There is no particular reason for that to happen again this time but equally it's too soon yet to say it's not happening again.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 5% (-3)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 13 - 14 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

    This was before the free internet for all. I still just can't see the Tories getting this 42-43%, I just can't. Where as Labour are definitely getting 30%, maybe more.
    There are going to be many many more “free X for all” announcements in the coming weeks. :)
    Greens just announced Universal income - 89 quid a week, 84billion a year.
    84bn? Pitiful attempt. :D
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960

    RobD said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 5% (-3)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 13 - 14 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

    This was before the free internet for all. I still just can't see the Tories getting this 42-43%, I just can't. Where as Labour are definitely getting 30%, maybe more.
    There are going to be many many more “free X for all” announcements in the coming weeks. :)
    Greens just announced Universal income - 89 quid a week, 84billion a year.
    Should peel plenty more votes away from Labour.....
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Flavible has Pidcock gone on the panelbase numbers and in Scotland 10 Tories if we give the SNP 4% (nationally), losing Ayr, Ochil and Gordon
    This does seem optimistic in Scotland but Pidders is a goner ;)

    Mr Woolie you seem to have a thing about that nice Ms Pidcock
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    .. and where the residents are generally old enough to remember to nightmare of the last time we had nationalised telecoms.

    I'm not sure that nightmare is right, but they will remember there was no choice, you paid whatever you were told to pay for calls and rental, everybody had the same sort of telephones, and nothing much ever changed. It was a world utterly different from now, where you can change suppliers, change physically how things are delivered, plug in your own hardware, and regular upgrades are the norm.

    There are things wrong with telecoms in the UK, but a state monopoly will probably not solve the problems.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Brom said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 5% (-3)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 13 - 14 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

    This was before the free internet for all. I still just can't see the Tories getting this 42-43%, I just can't. Where as Labour are definitely getting 30%, maybe more.
    I agree that it “feels” wrong, and I’ve been asking myself why. I can’t speak for you but my reference point for big leads is Blair, and Cameron before the crash. At those times you had a sense that the party/leader with the massive lead was actively liked. By contrast, the coalition and then the Tory Gvts I’ve had a sense of the public saying “oh, go on then”.

    I’ve been asking myself if the difference is that I’m in my own bubble, and my sense are off, and out in the country Boris is just liked. The favourability polling does seem to suggest he is, for many. Though he has a vocal set of those that can’t stand him.
    It might feel wrong but even if Boris has a 5 point lead rather than a 13 point one the Tories will scrape a majority. Labour need a Corbyn surge but I'm not sure people will fall for the 'free stuff' announcements.

    As I posted before 3/4 weeks before the 2017 election we had "Ooh Jeremy Corbyn" chanted around stadiums. I'm not sure the same people are so receptive to the bullshit anymore. Perhaps the Watford approach of changing your leader for each election has some benefits with the electorate and stops the Tories appearing tired.

    Anyway a lot can change but feet need to be kept on the ground and the threat of the far left will not be seen off until polling day.
    As I have said quite a few times already, in 2017 the Tory polling lead of 17-18% didn't begin to reduce until 21 days ahead of the GE. Then it reduced slowly but consistently day by day.

    There is no particular reason for that to happen again this time but equally it's too soon yet to say it's not happening again.
    Labour were closing the gap through the campaign period, not just in the last three weeks.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2017_UK_General_Election_polls_graph_-_short_timeperiod.png
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    RobD said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 5% (-3)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 13 - 14 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

    This was before the free internet for all. I still just can't see the Tories getting this 42-43%, I just can't. Where as Labour are definitely getting 30%, maybe more.
    There are going to be many many more “free X for all” announcements in the coming weeks. :)
    Greens just announced Universal income - 89 quid a week, 84billion a year.
    Will become an essential policy in a couple of decades when automation and AI make work scarce, but things like Labours free internet and other utilities will also be more appropriate at that time as we scratch out a 2 day week on job shares
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 5% (-3)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 13 - 14 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

    This was before the free internet for all. I still just can't see the Tories getting this 42-43%, I just can't. Where as Labour are definitely getting 30%, maybe more.
    The "free internet for all" really only plays for those out in the boondocks, where superfast broadband is urrently but a dream - and where Labour is a rounding error on the vote.....
    .. and where the residents are generally old enough to remember the nightmare of the last time we had nationalised telecoms.
    Pretty much everything was crap in the 70s tbf - nationalised or not.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    Gabs2 said:

    Brom said:

    Brom said:

    RobD said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 5% (-3)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 13 - 14 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

    Methodology changes? Nice to see Labour static for a change ;)
    Labour stuck on 30%, I'm sure they will crawl upwards gradually but now BXP have stood down Tories will be the right side of 40% unless they have a campaign meltdown.
    The Tories were on the right side (for them) of 40% last time, just saying.
    Yes but so were Labour. Unless the Lib Dems are being squeezed to single figures this seems unlikely this time around. Even if the Tories hit 317 it might be enough to get the deal through given their new influx of MPs, though the aim is 330 plus.
    I don't know. Momentum are out in droves, pounding the doorsteps. They will generate a big Labour turnout and convert a lot of switchers.
    My experience of polling day in Battersea in 2018 was that a large Momentum presence was counter-productive.
  • RobD said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 5% (-3)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 13 - 14 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

    This was before the free internet for all. I still just can't see the Tories getting this 42-43%, I just can't. Where as Labour are definitely getting 30%, maybe more.
    There are going to be many many more “free X for all” announcements in the coming weeks. :)
    Greens just announced Universal income - 89 quid a week, 84billion a year.
    Actual free money...

    Though it would pay for my cleaner.
  • RobD said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 5% (-3)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 13 - 14 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

    This was before the free internet for all. I still just can't see the Tories getting this 42-43%, I just can't. Where as Labour are definitely getting 30%, maybe more.
    There are going to be many many more “free X for all” announcements in the coming weeks. :)
    Greens just announced Universal income - 89 quid a week, 84billion a year.
    So cheaper than some estimates of free internet for all...

    If you are going to do UBI, something like £90-100 a week isn't a terrible level (but you also have to remove most other benefits except say housing). You want it to be that you don't starve, but also that getting a job is just a way better option. £5k a year is not going to enough to make it a massive disincentive to find work.

    My biggest issue with UBI is that the economist theory is ok, but a) human's don't act rationally and b) we know what happens when politicians get involved.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861
    SunnyJim said:

    kinabalu said:

    SunnyJim said:

    There are millions like it; just drones never straying far from the hive.

    I have considered this argument - floated often here and elsewhere - that Labour supporters are mindless numpties who vote purely out of habit and tribalism whereas supporters of other parties are independent freethinkers with a restless, roving intellect who carefully and objectively weigh up what's best for the country and vote accordingly.

    And I'm not convinced.
    Labour voters take pride in "my dad's, dad's, dad's dad voted Labour...so I do".

    That is your stereotype.
  • Brom said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 5% (-3)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 13 - 14 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

    This was before the free internet for all. I still just can't see the Tories getting this 42-43%, I just can't. Where as Labour are definitely getting 30%, maybe more.
    I agree that it “feels” wrong, and I’ve been asking myself why. I can’t speak for you but my reference point for big leads is Blair, and Cameron before the crash. At those times you had a sense that the party/leader with the massive lead was actively liked. By contrast, the coalition and then the Tory Gvts I’ve had a sense of the public saying “oh, go on then”.

    I’ve been asking myself if the difference is that I’m in my own bubble, and my sense are off, and out in the country Boris is just liked. The favourability polling does seem to suggest he is, for many. Though he has a vocal set of those that can’t stand him.
    It might feel wrong but even if Boris has a 5 point lead rather than a 13 point one the Tories will scrape a majority. Labour need a Corbyn surge but I'm not sure people will fall for the 'free stuff' announcements.

    As I posted before 3/4 weeks before the 2017 election we had "Ooh Jeremy Corbyn" chanted around stadiums. I'm not sure the same people are so receptive to the bullshit anymore. Perhaps the Watford approach of changing your leader for each election has some benefits with the electorate and stops the Tories appearing tired.

    Anyway a lot can change but feet need to be kept on the ground and the threat of the far left will not be seen off until polling day.
    As I have said quite a few times already, in 2017 the Tory polling lead of 17-18% didn't begin to reduce until 21 days ahead of the GE. Then it reduced slowly but consistently day by day.

    There is no particular reason for that to happen again this time but equally it's too soon yet to say it's not happening again.
    I agree Ben and I am far from calling it a majority for the conservatives

    There are just too many imponderables. Boris comes over quite uncertain at times but to be honest, he may get away with it next to Corbyn
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    dyedwoolie said: "Flavible has Pidcock gone on the panelbase numbers and in Scotland 10 Tories if we give the SNP 4% (nationally), losing Ayr, Ochil and Gordon
    This does seem optimistic in Scotland but Pidders is a goner"

    May perversely turn out to be bad for the Tories if this is so. My guess is that they would relish Pidcock or Long-Bailey as next Lab leader.
  • glw said:

    .. and where the residents are generally old enough to remember to nightmare of the last time we had nationalised telecoms.

    I'm not sure that nightmare is right, but they will remember there was no choice, you paid whatever you were told to pay for calls and rental, everybody had the same sort of telephones, and nothing much ever changed. It was a world utterly different from now, where you can change suppliers, change physically how things are delivered, plug in your own hardware, and regular upgrades are the norm.

    There are things wrong with telecoms in the UK, but a state monopoly will probably not solve the problems.
    I remember the announcement that they were relaxing the rules to let you buy your own phone!
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Flavible has Pidcock gone on the panelbase numbers and in Scotland 10 Tories if we give the SNP 4% (nationally), losing Ayr, Ochil and Gordon
    This does seem optimistic in Scotland but Pidders is a goner ;)

    Mr Woolie you seem to have a thing about that nice Ms Pidcock
    I have a few nemeses as it were. Pidders, the dreadful Dent Coad woman, Boles, Chope, Jess Phillips, Ben Bradshaw, Git face Pig Fucker Boy and others.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343

    Sean_F said:

    I see Survation have a poll for Reading West, giving Con 50%, Lab 26%, a swing of 9% from 2017.

    My family is broadly from three of the wards listed.

    "The Borough of Reading wards of Battle, Kentwood, Minster, Norcot, Southcote, Tilehurst, and Whitley, and the District of West Berkshire wards of Birch Copse, Calcot, Pangbourne, Purley on Thames, Theale, and Westwood"

    Imagine a place populated entirely by Jay's Dad off of The Inbetweeners.
    I've seen some genuinely scary individuals board the train at Reading West over the years.
    If that's anywhere close to correct then the Tories are home and dry. It's a must win seat for the Tories and Labour.

  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861
    RobD said:

    Noo said:

    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    glw said:

    Floater said:

    Mr McDonnell said that if other broadband providers did not want to give access to British Broadband, then they would also be taken into public ownership.

    Chilling...do what the government say or we will seize your business.

    Now, about inwards business investment......
    Just raising the prospect of nationalisation will have a chilling effect.

    In fact a quick Google and I found this.


    Labour broadband pledge stalls TalkTalk sale
    A deal to sell FibreNation to CityFibre has been postponed until after the general election, Sky News understands.

    https://news.sky.com/story/labour-broadband-pledge-stalls-talktalk-sale-11861708

    Damage already done by the Labour Party.
    Socialism - destroying peoples lives since inception
    The NHS says hi.
    Thats nice - but it's not socialism either.
    It is 100% socialism. Free at the point of use, based on need, provided by or on behalf of the government, paid for by our taxes. I believe they call it "socialised medicine" in America.
    Are roads socialist? Free at the point of use, built based on need, provided by or on behalf of the government, paid for by our taxes.
    Don’t you pay to use them via petrol tax?
    You are intelligent enough to know that petrol tax is not ring-fenced. Tax pays for roads, not petrol tax, not vehicle tax, not inheritance tax.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Stocky said:

    dyedwoolie said: "Flavible has Pidcock gone on the panelbase numbers and in Scotland 10 Tories if we give the SNP 4% (nationally), losing Ayr, Ochil and Gordon
    This does seem optimistic in Scotland but Pidders is a goner"

    May perversely turn out to be bad for the Tories if this is so. My guess is that they would relish Pidcock or Long-Bailey as next Lab leader.

    Long Bailey will be fine it can be her.
  • algarkirk said:

    Sean_F said:

    I see Survation have a poll for Reading West, giving Con 50%, Lab 26%, a swing of 9% from 2017.

    My family is broadly from three of the wards listed.

    "The Borough of Reading wards of Battle, Kentwood, Minster, Norcot, Southcote, Tilehurst, and Whitley, and the District of West Berkshire wards of Birch Copse, Calcot, Pangbourne, Purley on Thames, Theale, and Westwood"

    Imagine a place populated entirely by Jay's Dad off of The Inbetweeners.
    I've seen some genuinely scary individuals board the train at Reading West over the years.
    If that's anywhere close to correct then the Tories are home and dry. It's a must win seat for the Tories and Labour.

    Genuinely scary individuals boarding trains signal a Tory victory?
  • AndyJS said:

    Flavible using the new Panelbase poll:

    Con 391
    Lab 168
    SNP 41
    LD 27
    PC 4
    Grn 1

    1983 - Scotland. Labour are in so much trouble.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    Stocky said:

    dyedwoolie said: "Flavible has Pidcock gone on the panelbase numbers and in Scotland 10 Tories if we give the SNP 4% (nationally), losing Ayr, Ochil and Gordon
    This does seem optimistic in Scotland but Pidders is a goner"

    May perversely turn out to be bad for the Tories if this is so. My guess is that they would relish Pidcock or Long-Bailey as next Lab leader.

    If it's either, give it six months and Labour will be begging Corbyn to come back from his allotment....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    eristdoof said:

    RobD said:

    Noo said:

    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    glw said:

    Floater said:

    Mr McDonnell said that if other broadband providers did not want to give access to British Broadband, then they would also be taken into public ownership.

    Chilling...do what the government say or we will seize your business.

    Now, about inwards business investment......
    Just raising the prospect of nationalisation will have a chilling effect.

    In fact a quick Google and I found this.


    Labour broadband pledge stalls TalkTalk sale
    A deal to sell FibreNation to CityFibre has been postponed until after the general election, Sky News understands.

    https://news.sky.com/story/labour-broadband-pledge-stalls-talktalk-sale-11861708

    Damage already done by the Labour Party.
    Socialism - destroying peoples lives since inception
    The NHS says hi.
    Thats nice - but it's not socialism either.
    It is 100% socialism. Free at the point of use, based on need, provided by or on behalf of the government, paid for by our taxes. I believe they call it "socialised medicine" in America.
    Are roads socialist? Free at the point of use, built based on need, provided by or on behalf of the government, paid for by our taxes.
    Don’t you pay to use them via petrol tax?
    You are intelligent enough to know that petrol tax is not ring-fenced. Tax pays for roads, not petrol tax, not vehicle tax, not inheritance tax.
    Are any taxes ringfenced? I think it’s fair to make a connection between petrol tax and road spending.
  • Sean_F said:

    I see Survation have a poll for Reading West, giving Con 50%, Lab 26%, a swing of 9% from 2017.

    My family is broadly from three of the wards listed.

    "The Borough of Reading wards of Battle, Kentwood, Minster, Norcot, Southcote, Tilehurst, and Whitley, and the District of West Berkshire wards of Birch Copse, Calcot, Pangbourne, Purley on Thames, Theale, and Westwood"

    Imagine a place populated entirely by Jay's Dad off of The Inbetweeners.
    I've seen some genuinely scary individuals board the train at Reading West over the years.
    Did you bump into the shadow cabinet away day?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Stocky said:

    dyedwoolie said: "Flavible has Pidcock gone on the panelbase numbers and in Scotland 10 Tories if we give the SNP 4% (nationally), losing Ayr, Ochil and Gordon
    This does seem optimistic in Scotland but Pidders is a goner"

    May perversely turn out to be bad for the Tories if this is so. My guess is that they would relish Pidcock or Long-Bailey as next Lab leader.

    It's scarcely believable to my ears but Con GAIN NW Durham has Labour so far behind that it might not matter who they choose as leader after Corbyn !
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    RobD said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 5% (-3)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 13 - 14 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

    This was before the free internet for all. I still just can't see the Tories getting this 42-43%, I just can't. Where as Labour are definitely getting 30%, maybe more.
    There are going to be many many more “free X for all” announcements in the coming weeks. :)
    Greens just announced Universal income - 89 quid a week, 84billion a year.
    So cheaper than some estimates of free internet for all...

    If you are going to do UBI, something like £90-100 a week isn't a terrible level (but you also have to remove most other benefits except say housing). You want it to be that you don't starve, but also that getting a job is just a way better option. £5k a year is not going to enough to make it a massive disincentive to find work.

    My biggest issue with UBI is that the economist theory is ok, but a) human's don't act rationally and b) we know what happens when politicians get involved.
    Univeral Credit is only £73.34 pw for individuals or £115.13 pw for couples (so £57.56 each pw)

    Oh, unless you are under 25 when you can get by with 20% less apparently.
  • algarkirk said:

    Sean_F said:

    I see Survation have a poll for Reading West, giving Con 50%, Lab 26%, a swing of 9% from 2017.

    My family is broadly from three of the wards listed.

    "The Borough of Reading wards of Battle, Kentwood, Minster, Norcot, Southcote, Tilehurst, and Whitley, and the District of West Berkshire wards of Birch Copse, Calcot, Pangbourne, Purley on Thames, Theale, and Westwood"

    Imagine a place populated entirely by Jay's Dad off of The Inbetweeners.
    I've seen some genuinely scary individuals board the train at Reading West over the years.
    If that's anywhere close to correct then the Tories are home and dry. It's a must win seat for the Tories and Labour.

    Genuinely scary individuals boarding trains signal a Tory victory?
    CHOOO CHOOO
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Sean_F said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Brom said:

    Brom said:

    RobD said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 5% (-3)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 13 - 14 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

    Methodology changes? Nice to see Labour static for a change ;)
    Labour stuck on 30%, I'm sure they will crawl upwards gradually but now BXP have stood down Tories will be the right side of 40% unless they have a campaign meltdown.
    The Tories were on the right side (for them) of 40% last time, just saying.
    Yes but so were Labour. Unless the Lib Dems are being squeezed to single figures this seems unlikely this time around. Even if the Tories hit 317 it might be enough to get the deal through given their new influx of MPs, though the aim is 330 plus.
    I don't know. Momentum are out in droves, pounding the doorsteps. They will generate a big Labour turnout and convert a lot of switchers.
    My experience of polling day in Battersea in 2018 was that a large Momentum presence was counter-productive.
    Then what do you attribute the outperformance in 2017 to?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960

    glw said:

    .. and where the residents are generally old enough to remember to nightmare of the last time we had nationalised telecoms.

    I'm not sure that nightmare is right, but they will remember there was no choice, you paid whatever you were told to pay for calls and rental, everybody had the same sort of telephones, and nothing much ever changed. It was a world utterly different from now, where you can change suppliers, change physically how things are delivered, plug in your own hardware, and regular upgrades are the norm.

    There are things wrong with telecoms in the UK, but a state monopoly will probably not solve the problems.
    I remember the announcement that they were relaxing the rules to let you buy your own phone!
    Although there was still a four month wait to get it fixed to the wall.....

    I'd love to see today's teenagers have to cope with the 70's. Lugging half a dozen vinyl LPs round to your mates. Making sure you had a stash of 10ps (old style big heavy buggers) for the phone box. After you'd waited an age to use it..... "Gaming" being Colditz (the Do or Die card) and Mousetrap and Kerplunk.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343

    algarkirk said:

    Sean_F said:

    I see Survation have a poll for Reading West, giving Con 50%, Lab 26%, a swing of 9% from 2017.

    My family is broadly from three of the wards listed.

    "The Borough of Reading wards of Battle, Kentwood, Minster, Norcot, Southcote, Tilehurst, and Whitley, and the District of West Berkshire wards of Birch Copse, Calcot, Pangbourne, Purley on Thames, Theale, and Westwood"

    Imagine a place populated entirely by Jay's Dad off of The Inbetweeners.
    I've seen some genuinely scary individuals board the train at Reading West over the years.
    If that's anywhere close to correct then the Tories are home and dry. It's a must win seat for the Tories and Labour.

    Genuinely scary individuals boarding trains signal a Tory victory?
    Perhaps they are just the remaining Labour voters boarding a train to exile in North Korea?

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2019

    glw said:

    .. and where the residents are generally old enough to remember to nightmare of the last time we had nationalised telecoms.

    I'm not sure that nightmare is right, but they will remember there was no choice, you paid whatever you were told to pay for calls and rental, everybody had the same sort of telephones, and nothing much ever changed. It was a world utterly different from now, where you can change suppliers, change physically how things are delivered, plug in your own hardware, and regular upgrades are the norm.

    There are things wrong with telecoms in the UK, but a state monopoly will probably not solve the problems.
    I remember the announcement that they were relaxing the rules to let you buy your own phone!
    Although there was still a four month wait to get it fixed to the wall.....

    I'd love to see today's teenagers have to cope with the 70's. Lugging half a dozen vinyl LPs round to your mates. Making sure you had a stash of 10ps (old style big heavy buggers) for the phone box. After you'd waited an age to use it..... "Gaming" being Colditz (the Do or Die card) and Mousetrap and Kerplunk.
    Trying telling anybody under 21 about the days before the internet and then when dial-up became available...If they vote Labour in, they might get to relive those halcyon days thanks to the Commie Cable Co
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    If Labour superfan Lewis can't even come up with a doorstep straw to clutch for Corbyn then the Tories will be rather relaxed.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Boris goes past Canning on Wednesday #clingingonhere ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    I don't recall the Tories being particularly "liked" in the 80s either, though I was only in short trousers at the time :D !
  • He's just not a credible commentator. His read means Boris is going down pretty well.
  • Banterman said:

    He's just not a credible commentator. His read means Boris is going down pretty well.
    He also doesn't appear to have bothered to speak to anyone in Scotland, Wales or NI.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    Shocking!

    Naughty Labour supporters put out an edited version of an interview. The Tories would never do that!

    Funny though...

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsJOE_UK/status/1195323494264967168?s=20
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited November 2019

    Sean_F said:

    I see Survation have a poll for Reading West, giving Con 50%, Lab 26%, a swing of 9% from 2017.

    Interestingly*, the Tory score is broadly the same as 2017 but Labour's has collapsed.

    Reading East was like Reading West reversed - Lab about 49 %, Con 43.


    I can see that ending up like it was in 2010 tbh

    Notice how in a Conservative-held constituency where there was no UKIP in 2017 that when there is a BXP option the Tories stay the same and Labour collapse.

    But there will be no BXP candidate here...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2019
    ‘He put the milk in before taking the teabag out!’, ‘He’s a proper nutcase’, ‘Who’s going to pay me for a four-day week?’ My election focus groups in Stoke, Bolton and West Brom

    This week we have visited three Labour-held, Leave-voting seats of the kind the Conservatives are looking to regain in their quest for a majority: Stoke-on-Trent North, Bolton North East, and the seat held until recently by Labour’s deputy leader, West Bromwich East.

    https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/11/he-put-the-milk-in-before-taking-the-teabag-out-hes-a-proper-nutcase-whos-going-to-pay-me-for-a-four-day-week-my-election-focus-groups-in-stoke-bolton-and-west-brom-2/

    I know this is Labour seats, but it doesn't read well for the Tories. A lot of Corbyn policies are bonkers, but ahh f##k it whats the worst that could happen, we aren't going to become a Communist country.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    GIN1138 said:

    43% for Con with Panelbase is a very big number!

    YouGov might have then at 45% tomorrow? :D

    Careful Gin. Fingers crossed but ..........
    Survation is key. If Con can get to 40% and a 10% lead with Survation...
  • glw said:

    .. and where the residents are generally old enough to remember to nightmare of the last time we had nationalised telecoms.

    I'm not sure that nightmare is right, but they will remember there was no choice, you paid whatever you were told to pay for calls and rental, everybody had the same sort of telephones, and nothing much ever changed. It was a world utterly different from now, where you can change suppliers, change physically how things are delivered, plug in your own hardware, and regular upgrades are the norm.

    There are things wrong with telecoms in the UK, but a state monopoly will probably not solve the problems.
    I remember the announcement that they were relaxing the rules to let you buy your own phone!
    Although there was still a four month wait to get it fixed to the wall.....

    I'd love to see today's teenagers have to cope with the 70's. Lugging half a dozen vinyl LPs round to your mates. Making sure you had a stash of 10ps (old style big heavy buggers) for the phone box. After you'd waited an age to use it..... "Gaming" being Colditz (the Do or Die card) and Mousetrap and Kerplunk.
    Trying telling anybody under 21 about the days before the internet and then when dial-up became available...If they vote Labour in, they might get to relive those halcyon days thanks to the Commie Cable Co
    It is a way I amuse classes if we finish the lesson’s work with a few minutes to spare. I’m not sure they believe me when I talk about floppy disks.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311

    Brom said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 5% (-3)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 13 - 14 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

    This was before the free internet for all. I still just can't see the Tories getting this 42-43%, I just can't. Where as Labour are definitely getting 30%, maybe more.
    I agree that it “feels” wrong, and I’ve been asking myself why. I can’t speak for you but my reference point for big leads is Blair, and Cameron before the crash. At those times you had a sense that the party/leader with the massive lead was actively liked. By contrast, the coalition and then the Tory Gvts I’ve had a sense of the public saying “oh, go on then”.

    I’ve been asking myself if the difference is that I’m in my own bubble, and my sense are off, and out in the country Boris is just liked. The favourability polling does seem to suggest he is, for many. Though he has a vocal set of those that can’t stand him.
    It might feel wrong but even if Boris has a 5 point lead rather than a 13 point one the Tories will scrape a majority. Labour need a Corbyn surge but I'm not sure people will fall for the 'free stuff' announcements.

    As I posted before 3/4 weeks before the 2017 election we had "Ooh Jeremy Corbyn" chanted around stadiums. I'm not sure the same people are so receptive to the bullshit anymore. Perhaps the Watford approach of changing your leader for each election has some benefits with the electorate and stops the Tories appearing tired.

    Anyway a lot can change but feet need to be kept on the ground and the threat of the far left will not be seen off until polling day.
    As I have said quite a few times already, in 2017 the Tory polling lead of 17-18% didn't begin to reduce until 21 days ahead of the GE. Then it reduced slowly but consistently day by day.

    There is no particular reason for that to happen again this time but equally it's too soon yet to say it's not happening again.
    The Tories have a problem inasmuch if it looks like they will get a big majority then you don’t need to vote for them to oppose the labour economic lunacy, I suspect their vote will drop back.

    Linked to this if it gets close to Election Day and labour are nowhere near we may see a drop off in their totals as tactical voters switch back to their preferred party. If we think that this time in a defeat the clearest anti Brexit vote is for Green / Libdem / PC then they might pick up some of the vote that coalesced around labour last time.

  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    In all of this fire around broadband provision, has it been noted that its proposed to pay for this by a tax which which is in direct contradiction to, and a unilateral change to, international tax rules as they stand. That’s bound to be consequenceless.

    OECD reps are currently in Paris negotiating on this in an attempt to reach a global solution.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,168
    edited November 2019
    RobD said:

    Are any taxes ringfenced? I think it’s fair to make a connection between petrol tax and road spending.

    Why do you think it's "fair" to make the connection?

    Petrol tax might raise too little to cover the cost of road provision, or it might raise more than enough with the excess going to schools, hospitals, national defence and everything else.

    There's no particular reason to expect an equivalence, or for one to be "fair". Petrol taxes make a contribution to the overall tax take and also discourage, to some degree, fossil fuel use. That's all.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    It is a way I amuse classes if we finish the lesson’s work with a few minutes to spare. I’m not sure they believe me when I talk about floppy disks.

    I remember being maybe 7/8ish and loading games via cassette tape :-) Took forever.

  • glw said:

    .. and where the residents are generally old enough to remember to nightmare of the last time we had nationalised telecoms.

    I'm not sure that nightmare is right, but they will remember there was no choice, you paid whatever you were told to pay for calls and rental, everybody had the same sort of telephones, and nothing much ever changed. It was a world utterly different from now, where you can change suppliers, change physically how things are delivered, plug in your own hardware, and regular upgrades are the norm.

    There are things wrong with telecoms in the UK, but a state monopoly will probably not solve the problems.
    I remember the announcement that they were relaxing the rules to let you buy your own phone!
    Although there was still a four month wait to get it fixed to the wall.....

    I'd love to see today's teenagers have to cope with the 70's. Lugging half a dozen vinyl LPs round to your mates. Making sure you had a stash of 10ps (old style big heavy buggers) for the phone box. After you'd waited an age to use it..... "Gaming" being Colditz (the Do or Die card) and Mousetrap and Kerplunk.
    Trying telling anybody under 21 about the days before the internet and then when dial-up became available...If they vote Labour in, they might get to relive those halcyon days thanks to the Commie Cable Co
    It is a way I amuse classes if we finish the lesson’s work with a few minutes to spare. I’m not sure they believe me when I talk about floppy disks.
    I remember being the first person among my mates to get a CD burner and a zip drive....I think I paid something like £300 for the CD Burner...
  • Andrew said:


    It is a way I amuse classes if we finish the lesson’s work with a few minutes to spare. I’m not sure they believe me when I talk about floppy disks.

    I remember being maybe 7/8ish and loading games via cassette tape :-) Took forever.

    Ohhh...and those games that had multiple cassettes and it would ask you go back and forth between them...and then....it would screw up it and you would be left in limbo.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    Lewis not got much good news for Labour there...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    glw said:

    .. and where the residents are generally old enough to remember to nightmare of the last time we had nationalised telecoms.

    I'm not sure that nightmare is right, but they will remember there was no choice, you paid whatever you were told to pay for calls and rental, everybody had the same sort of telephones, and nothing much ever changed. It was a world utterly different from now, where you can change suppliers, change physically how things are delivered, plug in your own hardware, and regular upgrades are the norm.

    There are things wrong with telecoms in the UK, but a state monopoly will probably not solve the problems.
    I remember the announcement that they were relaxing the rules to let you buy your own phone!
    Although there was still a four month wait to get it fixed to the wall.....

    I'd love to see today's teenagers have to cope with the 70's. Lugging half a dozen vinyl LPs round to your mates. Making sure you had a stash of 10ps (old style big heavy buggers) for the phone box. After you'd waited an age to use it..... "Gaming" being Colditz (the Do or Die card) and Mousetrap and Kerplunk.
    Trying telling anybody under 21 about the days before the internet and then when dial-up became available...If they vote Labour in, they might get to relive those halcyon days thanks to the Commie Cable Co
    It is a way I amuse classes if we finish the lesson’s work with a few minutes to spare. I’m not sure they believe me when I talk about floppy disks.
    We bought an unused 1970s standard issue telephone handset (for its looks apparently).

    It works fine and several of our post-millennial nephews and neices have all enjoyed using the dial to actually dial a number.
This discussion has been closed.