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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What might mess up Tory strategy – Brexit is a much much bigger deal for CON voters than LAB ones
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New Hampshire law allows nicknames on the ballot, but doesn’t allow use of a nickname that “constitutes a slogan or otherwise associates the candidate with a cause or issue.”'
https://lawandcrime.com/live-trials/live-trials-current/jeffrey-epstein/man-attempts-to-run-for-president-in-new-hampshire-as-epstein-didnt-kill-himself/
Extreme Remain plus Nicola Murray isn't going to butter enough voter parsnips to see the LDs make the genuine breakthrough I had hoped for.
They're going to be squeezed by LAB right until election day. I feel that the result could be very similar to 2017.
How many more? Not many I expect. The parties aren't very friendly and lots of LDs hate Corbyn.
Will Labour voters return the favour? No. Barely any voters will even know that the LD candidates in a handful of seats that aren't theirs stood down, so barely any will even be able to act on the information. And most people that engaged in politics have strong views so rarely swing.
https://twitter.com/jdportes/status/1194336599842144256?s=20
LDs still intend to stand, so I'll put it back in the CON GAIN column. https://t.co/pBIU7yEY9I
Plus, it's really hard to find pictures of Vince Cable looking young. He seems to have been the same age for the past forty years.
We dont care about BXT compared to getting the Tories out
Beautiful:
Nick Clegg
Possibly attractive in the right light:
William Hague
Ming Campbell
Tony Blair
Paddy Ashdown
David Cameron
Michael Howard
Goofy but still got "something":
John Major
Charles Kennedy
Gordon Brown
David Steel
Ed Miliband
Vince Cable
Gurning lunatics but not totally disgusting:
Jo Swinson
Jeremy Corbyn
Margaret Thatcher
Theresa May
Skin crawling:
Tim Farron
Iain Duncan Smith
Neil Kinnock
James Callaghan
Hippocrocodogomoose:
Michael Foot
Boris Johnson
Come at me, PB, this is the hill I choose to die on.
This is the realignment election that 2017 was supposed to be.
https://reaction.life/dealbreaker-what-if-nigel-farage-has-a-point/
https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1194347250425700353
Exclusive: Labour To Complain To Ofcom About Sky News 'Brexit Election' slogan.
https://t.co/KGETUhgQXZ
Mrs May was more attractive than that - especially the look she had when she lambasted the police federation. She was genuinely alluring that day - as she lambasted all those policemen.
And your biggest category error - Ed Miliband. He's a 10. He could be lead singer in an arty pop band if he wasn't a politician.
Apart from these 2 edits - good work.
And so here we are.
I think Buttigieg does better than Biden in Iowa and Arizona. And Wisconsin was won - by a massive margin - by an openly lesbian woman last year, so hard to conclude that gayness is going to be a big negative there. Indeed, the only states where his homosexuality is likely to be a big issue (like North Carolina), were probably out of reach to any Democratic nominee in 2020.
Given we are likely to need immigration of 100k-300k per year to deal with our population curve and job gaps, and that most of that immigration will come from people from poorer countries than the UK, do you prefer immigration is from 1) EU or 2) rest of the world.
I think a lot of leavers want the premise not to be true and a lot of remainers are blind to the hypocrisy of their preference for 1 whilst calling most leavers racist.
I think 1 is the right answer partly because it is easier to adapt from most EU countries to the UK than from elsewhere and partly for the benefits it brings our people to live and work in the EU.
Hope some of you are on. Ever since Axelrod said this guy is the deal many months ago, I've been on. Very very green.
But DYOR.
I don’t want Corbyn anywhere near power. I feel about him - and have felt this since before he became leader - much as Ian Austin does. Corbyn, IMO, is not fit to be a Labour MP and very definitely not leader or PM. His default assumptions and instincts and judgment are, IMO, wrong and misguided. His political moral compass is pointing in the wrong direction.
I could say much the same about Johnson. I do not want the Tories in power - let alone with a large majority. They have lost any chance of getting my vote. They have been taken over by the Brexit party.
I hope both Corbyn and Johnson can lose and never be heard of again.
I had intended to vote Lib Dems in the vain hope that they are vaguely sensible and neither batshit insane nor malicious.
Would he be able to fill in an expense claim without fouling it up?
Buttigieg is highly unlikely to depress it. Even if he’s selected as the candidate....
https://twitter.com/AngelicNat38/status/1194337908578275331
So I do not know what do to now.
It may also have been part of the deal to let him bow out quietly from Brecon, not forgetting he’s still personally popular there.
I agree, it’s a silly decision, but I doubt if it will change anything.
The election is only 29 days away
Given his likely opponents are nearly all over 70 the voters will have to choose one characteristic or other that might not be their first preference.
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2019/11/12/monmouth-poll-buttigieg-biden-warren-iowa-sot-vpx-nr.cnn/video/playlists/top-news-videos/
“Fuck knows. I’m past caring. It’s like the living dead.”
Just about sums it up.
Do we blame him? No.
Has he fooled us into thinking a vote for him doesn't equal a vote to endorse Corbyn? Again, no.
This is an argument that gets trotted out every so often - if the Conservatives beat Labour badly enough, the LDs will have the opportunity to take over the role of opposition and challenge Conservative dominance.
That, even if it happened, would gift the Conservatives a decade in power.
I remember OGH and I agreeing before the 2010 GE the ideal result would be for Cameron to have a majority of 5-10 seats, a majority but not a comfortable one. A strong LD presence would have been able to harry the new Tory Government and build to a strong 2015 election.
Having seen Johnson prevaricate and obfuscate with a minority, I'm minded any kind of majority would allow him huge latitude to override Parliamentary scrutiny and govern via diktat from No.10.
The corollary of that is when (and it's not if) the Johnson Government hits its mid-term, it will be long and harsh with plenty of Conservative Council seats to crop (2021 being a good example).
I'm sure to keep himself in office Johnson will think nothing of borrowing even more to fund tax cuts to bribe his way through a GE in 2024 but today's borrowing is either tomorrow's tax rises or spending cuts and that will be a lot harder to sell.
His main pitch has been a new generation plus his experience as a city boss and stuff like serving military.
Will exhausted Dem primary vote turn away from the oldsters (warren/biden) and throw the dice on a fresh start?
I have bet they will.
Over the age 70, all very similar, 63% Republican (notable lack of awareness here!), 62% Independent, 65% Democrat
https://news.gallup.com/poll/254120/less-half-vote-socialist-president.aspx
Corbyn Calls for Government to Activate Scheme Already Activated Three Days Ago https://t.co/NQK9Wv3BzF
How will Trump deal with Buttigieg? The "weird name kid"?
Interesting role reversal there.
Primaries Andrew Yang will be in: 2
Primaries Hillary Clinton will be in: 0
Candidate considered more likely by Betfair punters to win: Hillary Clinton
(Also, Deval Patrick hasn't filed in either.)
Young matador versus demented old bull.
Which leaves Slab with the rest...and 4th place
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/points-based-system-tier-2
https://youtu.be/h8BEyPzHsVo