If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.
Understood. You prefer The Clown to The Cold Warrior.
Many do not want to choose between them, but outside of a few areas, that is not really viable - either, or none, still makes a choice which helps one of them.
I am in a Labour seat with an 11,000 majority. The Lib Dems may take it - though it is unlikely.
I don’t want Corbyn anywhere near power. I feel about him - and have felt this since before he became leader - much as Ian Austin does. Corbyn, IMO, is not fit to be a Labour MP and very definitely not leader or PM. His default assumptions and instincts and judgment are, IMO, wrong and misguided. His political moral compass is pointing in the wrong direction.
I could say much the same about Johnson. I do not want the Tories in power - let alone with a large majority. They have lost any chance of getting my vote. They have been taken over by the Brexit party.
I hope both Corbyn and Johnson can lose and never be heard of again.
I had intended to vote Lib Dems in the vain hope that they are vaguely sensible and neither batshit insane nor malicious.
That’s roughly what I’ve been saying for months. But here I don’t even have that choice to make as the Oranges have run away, endorsing the Greens who we all know are Corbyn with extra environmentalism.
So I do not know what do to now.
If all the remaining available choices are utterly repellent, then abstention could be considered honourable?
As a last resort, it’s an option I am considering. But it really feels like ducking responsibility.
Then what's your biggest priority and which of the available horrid choices do you think is most likely to achieve it?
What a stupid poll question, even the points system Boris wants would still enable EU citizens to live and work in the UK if they have the skills we need
The question no one wants to ask or answer is what about the EU citizens already here who don't "have the skills we need".
Well the people we need are a mix of high skilled and low skilled, not so much medium skilled. For high skilled points criteria works pretty well. For low skilled it doesnt.
EU immigrants from the EU14 are prominent in education, science and professional jobs, whereas they are underrepresented in retail, transport, construction, manufacturing and support services where the newer EU countries provide more of the people.
We conflate the two and pretend we dont need the low skilled so can pick the best immigrants available and have high financial barriers. We cant as we do need low skilled immigration.
Derby North is the Lab seat with the 21st smallest lead over Con, (2015 Votes) and only a modest Lib Dem votes to squeeze (2262 votes) and votes for Brexit 54%
Will he split the lab vote?? I suspect only a few hundred at most? but no local knowledge.
If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.
Understood. You prefer The Clown to The Cold Warrior.
Many do not want to choose between them, but outside of a few areas, that is not really viable - either, or none, still makes a choice which helps one of them.
I am in a Labour seat with an 11,000 majority. The Lib Dems may take it - though it is unlikely.
I don’t want Corbyn anywhere near power. I feel about him - and have felt this since before he became leader - much as Ian Austin does. Corbyn, IMO, is not fit to be a Labour MP and very definitely not leader or PM. His default assumptions and instincts and judgment are, IMO, wrong and misguided. His political moral compass is pointing in the wrong direction.
I could say much the same about Johnson. I do not want the Tories in power - let alone with a large majority. They have lost any chance of getting my vote. They have been taken over by the Brexit party.
I hope both Corbyn and Johnson can lose and never be heard of again.
I had intended to vote Lib Dems in the vain hope that they are vaguely sensible and neither batshit insane nor malicious.
That’s roughly what I’ve been saying for months. But here I don’t even have that choice to make as the Oranges have run away, endorsing the Greens who we all know are Corbyn with extra environmentalism.
So I do not know what do to now.
If all the remaining available choices are utterly repellent, then abstention could be considered honourable?
A kobayashi maru election? How very PB.
Hmmmm... if only it were possible to reprogram the simulation so that we could rescue ourselves...
Derby North is the Lab seat with the 21st smallest lead over Con, (2015 Votes) and only a modest Lib Dem votes to squeeze (2262 votes) and votes for Brexit 54%
Will he split the lab vote?? I suspect only a few hundred at most? but no local knowledge.
I suspect that he will get enough votes to allow the Tories to win the seat.
I'd have a serious think about voting for him in Edinburgh South, probably more so than any other remain & labour candidate. I expect unionist tacticals will get him over the line.
Murray is safe as houses built to a stringent building code. A decent return on your money in exactly a month's time would be to put all your betting cash on him to win.
If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.
Understood. You prefer The Clown to The Cold Warrior.
Many do not want to choose between them, but outside of a few areas, that is not really viable - either, or none, still makes a choice which helps one of them.
I am in a Labour seat with an 11,000 majority. The Lib Dems may take it - though it is unlikely.
I don’t want Corbyn anywhere near power. I feel about him - and have felt this since before he became leader - much as Ian Austin does. Corbyn, IMO, is not fit to be a Labour MP and very definitely not leader or PM. His default assumptions and instincts and judgment are, IMO, wrong and misguided. His political moral compass is pointing in the wrong direction.
I could say much the same about Johnson. I do not want the Tories in power - let alone with a large majority. They have lost any chance of getting my vote. They have been taken over by the Brexit party.
I hope both Corbyn and Johnson can lose and never be heard of again.
I had intended to vote Lib Dems in the vain hope that they are vaguely sensible and neither batshit insane nor malicious.
That’s roughly what I’ve been saying for months. But here I don’t even have that choice to make as the Oranges have run away, endorsing the Greens who we all know are Corbyn with extra environmentalism.
So I do not know what do to now.
If all the remaining available choices are utterly repellent, then abstention could be considered honourable?
As a last resort, it’s an option I am considering. But it really feels like ducking responsibility.
Then what's your biggest priority and which of the available horrid choices do you think is most likely to achieve it?
He was up to 15% in New Hampshire as well, within 5% of first place.
How seriously do you rate this meme that African-American Democrats won’t vote (and aren’t ready for) an openly gay man?
As seriously as I rated the meme that "Evangelicals won't vote for a proven liar and fornicator who paid for abortions for women he had extra-marital affairs with".
The problem will manifest itself in turnout rather than vote share.
It's hard to separate out the person from the appearance though. So this kind of exercise is probably doomed to a double-subjectivity. I tried to add the Lib Dems in, but I figured I'm be lynched by the Brexiters for saying that Nick Clegg is a properly beautiful man, and gets his own category. Plus, it's really hard to find pictures of Vince Cable looking young. He seems to have been the same age for the past forty years.
Oh, screw it, here's the Lib Dems too:
Beautiful: Nick Clegg
Possibly attractive in the right light: William Hague Ming Campbell Tony Blair Paddy Ashdown David Cameron Michael Howard
Goofy but still got "something": John Major Charles Kennedy Gordon Brown David Steel Ed Miliband Vince Cable
Gurning lunatics but not totally disgusting: Jo Swinson Jeremy Corbyn Margaret Thatcher Theresa May
Skin crawling: Tim Farron Iain Duncan Smith Neil Kinnock James Callaghan
Hippocrocodogomoose: Michael Foot Boris Johnson
Come at me, PB, this is the hill I choose to die on.
Luciana Berger and Gloria de Piero are pretty hot.
If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.
Understood. You prefer The Clown to The Cold Warrior.
Many do not want to choose between them, but outside of a few areas, that is not really viable - either, or none, still makes a choice which helps one of them.
I am in a Labour seat with an 11,000 majority. The Lib Dems may take it - though it is unlikely.
I don’t want Corbyn anywhere near power. I feel about him - and have felt this since before he became leader - much as Ian Austin does. Corbyn, IMO, is not fit to be a Labour MP and very definitely not leader or PM. His default assumptions and instincts and judgment are, IMO, wrong and misguided. His political moral compass is pointing in the wrong direction.
I could say much the same about Johnson. I do not want the Tories in power - let alone with a large majority. They have lost any chance of getting my vote. They have been taken over by the Brexit party.
I hope both Corbyn and Johnson can lose and never be heard of again.
I had intended to vote Lib Dems in the vain hope that they are vaguely sensible and neither batshit insane nor malicious.
But bear in mind that Labour candidates like Rosie Duffield are not Corbynistas (in fact a section of her local party are against her for this reason). They would seek to drag Labour to the Remain side and would not give him carte blanche for everything else.
He was up to 15% in New Hampshire as well, within 5% of first place.
How seriously do you rate this meme that African-American Democrats won’t vote (and aren’t ready for) an openly gay man?
As seriously as I rated the meme that "Evangelicals won't vote for a proven liar and fornicator who paid for abortions for women he had extra-marital affairs with".
The problem will manifest itself in turnout rather than vote share.
Sure, but it's swings and roundabouts. A pleasant, clean, sensible, young, Christian ex-veteran who's appealing to suburbanites will do better in swing state Iowa than some of the other candidates.
I think Buttigieg does better than Biden in Iowa and Arizona. And Wisconsin was won - by a massive margin - by an openly lesbian woman last year, so hard to conclude that gayness is going to be a big negative there. Indeed, the only states where his homosexuality is likely to be a big issue (like North Carolina), were probably out of reach to any Democratic nominee in 2020.
Interesting about Buttigieg. I have been banging on about him on here for a while now, and in particular, saying a surprise was coming in Iowa.
Hope some of you are on. Ever since Axelrod said this guy is the deal many months ago, I've been on. Very very green.
What a stupid poll question, even the points system Boris wants would still enable EU citizens to live and work in the UK if they have the skills we need
The question no one wants to ask or answer is what about the EU citizens already here who don't "have the skills we need".
If the question is about EU citizens claiming unemployment benefits then note that:
Unemployment rates in the UK: EU immigrants 3.4% UK citizens 4.1% non EU 5.7% % of unemployed claiming benefits: EU 16%, UK 26%, non EU 19%
so % of workforce unemployed and claiming benefits: EU 0.5% UK 1% non EU 1.1%
Id say the answer is just wait for them to get a job or for them to choose to leave to somewhere they have greater prospects. It is just 1 in 200 of the EU workforce.
Except Labour are on just 28% and 29% with Yougov and Survation today, so the Labour vote is already down to its core with pro Brexit 2017 Labour voters already having switched to the Tories or Brexit Party. Boris with Yougov today does not need to convert a single extra Labour voter, as long as he holds the current Tory vote he would still win a landslide
Bloody Survation fieldwork was from last week! I will have to adjust ELBOW for week-ending 10th Nov again!
OK, so including Survation, ELBOW for week-ending 10th November:
CON 38.1% (+0.2) LAB 28.2% (+1.9) LD 16.1% (+0.1) BXP 9.1% (-1.3) SNP 3.7% (+0.1) GRN 3.4% (-0.2) PC 0.6% (-0.2) Oth 0.8% (-0.5)
In a Labour leave constituency which say had 55% voted leave. A large majority of that 55% voted conservative in 2015 and 2017, and some others did not vote in the GEs. There are not many Labour voters complaining that their MP is not leave enough.
It's hard to separate out the person from the appearance though. So this kind of exercise is probably doomed to a double-subjectivity. I tried to add the Lib Dems in, but I figured I'm be lynched by the Brexiters for saying that Nick Clegg is a properly beautiful man, and gets his own category. Plus, it's really hard to find pictures of Vince Cable looking young. He seems to have been the same age for the past forty years.
Oh, screw it, here's the Lib Dems too:
Beautiful: Nick Clegg
Possibly attractive in the right light: William Hague Ming Campbell Tony Blair Paddy Ashdown David Cameron Michael Howard
Goofy but still got "something": John Major Charles Kennedy Gordon Brown David Steel Ed Miliband Vince Cable
Gurning lunatics but not totally disgusting: Jo Swinson Jeremy Corbyn Margaret Thatcher Theresa May
Skin crawling: Tim Farron Iain Duncan Smith Neil Kinnock James Callaghan
Hippocrocodogomoose: Michael Foot Boris Johnson
Come at me, PB, this is the hill I choose to die on.
Were you involved in one of Clegg's bed post scratchings?
A piece of local knowledge. The local labour party has become particularly unpopular. Last year they lost control of the council with both the mayor and leader of the labour group both losing their seats. they lost more seats this year. I live in the other Derby seat but it wouldn't take much to tar him with that same brush.
He was up to 15% in New Hampshire as well, within 5% of first place.
How seriously do you rate this meme that African-American Democrats won’t vote (and aren’t ready for) an openly gay man?
As seriously as I rated the meme that "Evangelicals won't vote for a proven liar and fornicator who paid for abortions for women he had extra-marital affairs with".
The problem will manifest itself in turnout rather than vote share.
Sure, but it's swings and roundabouts. A pleasant, clean, sensible, young, Christian ex-veteran who's appealing to suburbanites will do better in swing state Iowa than some of the other candidates.
I think Buttigieg does better than Biden in Iowa and Arizona. And Wisconsin was won - by a massive margin - by an openly lesbian woman last year, so hard to conclude that gayness is going to be a big negative there. Indeed, the only states where his homosexuality is likely to be a big issue (like North Carolina), were probably out of reach to any Democratic nominee in 2020.
Only 76% of Americans would be willing to vote for a well qualified gay President, but in turn only 63% of Americans say they would vote for a candidate over 70.
Given his likely opponents are nearly all over 70 the voters will have to choose one characteristic or other that might not be their first preference.
Buttigieg represents a completely fresh start just by looking at him thanks to his youth.
His main pitch has been a new generation plus his experience as a city boss and stuff like serving military.
Will exhausted Dem primary vote turn away from the oldsters (warren/biden) and throw the dice on a fresh start?
I have bet they will.
You and I both.
I had no special insight, mind. I just start from the assumption that PB's new Rogerdamus is wrong and bet accordingly.
Somehow he seems to have a blindspot about good looking, young-ish, centrist candidates.
Well the people we need are a mix of high skilled and low skilled, not so much medium skilled. For high skilled points criteria works pretty well. For low skilled it doesnt.
EU immigrants from the EU14 are prominent in education, science and professional jobs, whereas they are underrepresented in retail, transport, construction, manufacturing and support services where the newer EU countries provide more of the people.
We conflate the two and pretend we don't need the low skilled so can pick the best immigrants available and have high financial barriers. We cant as we do need low skilled immigration.
I agree the "I" word is complex and multi-layered. I see the impact of the Single Market and open door migration on a daily basis in my part of the world and it's not pretty. Too many migrants end up being exploited in terms of housing and work (often by their own country men regrettably).
To house the influx of new workers we have a new generation of slums (20 people living in a 3-bedroom semi) and existing public services which are creaking under the strain of unprecedented population growth soon to be augmented by a new generation of box dwellers in new flats which will further stretch transport, health and school provision.
I realise to say such things is borderline heretical but when you talk to law enforcement they will tell you the degree to which anti-social and illegal activities are controlled by gangs from Eastern Europe and the victims are the migrants themselves.
Taking about "points systems" is fine and may even work but the problems are far more immediate.
He was up to 15% in New Hampshire as well, within 5% of first place.
How seriously do you rate this meme that African-American Democrats won’t vote (and aren’t ready for) an openly gay man?
As seriously as I rated the meme that "Evangelicals won't vote for a proven liar and fornicator who paid for abortions for women he had extra-marital affairs with".
The problem will manifest itself in turnout rather than vote share.
Sure, but it's swings and roundabouts. A pleasant, clean, sensible, young, Christian ex-veteran who's appealing to suburbanites will do better in swing state Iowa than some of the other candidates.
I think Buttigieg does better than Biden in Iowa and Arizona. And Wisconsin was won - by a massive margin - by an openly lesbian woman last year, so hard to conclude that gayness is going to be a big negative there. Indeed, the only states where his homosexuality is likely to be a big issue (like North Carolina), were probably out of reach to any Democratic nominee in 2020.
Only 76% of Americans would be willing to vote for a well qualified gay President, but in turn only 63% of Americans say they would vote for a candidate over 70.
Given his likely opponents are nearly all over 70 the voters will have to choose one characteristic or other that might not be their first preference.
Buttigieg represents a completely fresh start just by looking at him thanks to his youth.
His main pitch has been a new generation plus his experience as a city boss and stuff like serving military.
Will exhausted Dem primary vote turn away from the oldsters (warren/biden) and throw the dice on a fresh start?
I have bet they will.
I think voters tend to choose an opposite when ejecting a leader. Trump is so weird pretty much any candidate could be an opposite, but in particular Sanders might be too similar and Warren and Buttigieg meet the opposite criteria strongly.
Yep. But Warren is McGovern. She will lose is my hunch.
How will Trump deal with Buttigieg? The "weird name kid"?
He'll describe him as gauche and self-made, and point out that he buys his own furniture.
My view is that if you are a Tory remainer voting Lib Dem it's because your priority is to stop Brexit. I'm entirely unconvinced you'd reconsider that vote as a result of standing aside to give a non-Corbynista Labour remainer a shit at holding the seat against a hard Brexit Tory.
I think Swinson's limitations have been totally exposed already in this campaign. Lightweight, and self-interested added he complete idiocy of the revoke policy which even repels many remainers. As an attempt to move the window on Brexit it was stupidity.
For a party who claim their priority is to stop Brexit, they have funny way of showing it.
Derby North is the Lab seat with the 21st smallest lead over Con, (2015 Votes) and only a modest Lib Dem votes to squeeze (2262 votes) and votes for Brexit 54%
Will he split the lab vote?? I suspect only a few hundred at most? but no local knowledge.
I suspect that he will get enough votes to allow the Tories to win the seat.
What about TBP splitting the leave vote?
It is interesting how many people's opinions on this site are biassed by their own political wishes. The predictions on ths site are supposed to be based around betting tips, which should of course be politically neutral.
Freedom of movement has been portrayed as something the UK was subjected to , as if it was a punishment .
The benefits to Brits to enjoy that freedom has never been properly sold . It seems also that some in the UK think that FOM stopping only applies to other EU nationals , that Brits will be able to do what they like still .
Well the people we need are a mix of high skilled and low skilled, not so much medium skilled. For high skilled points criteria works pretty well. For low skilled it doesnt.
EU immigrants from the EU14 are prominent in education, science and professional jobs, whereas they are underrepresented in retail, transport, construction, manufacturing and support services where the newer EU countries provide more of the people.
We conflate the two and pretend we don't need the low skilled so can pick the best immigrants available and have high financial barriers. We cant as we do need low skilled immigration.
I agree the "I" word is complex and multi-layered. I see the impact of the Single Market and open door migration on a daily basis in my part of the world and it's not pretty. Too many migrants end up being exploited in terms of housing and work (often by their own country men regrettably).
To house the influx of new workers we have a new generation of slums (20 people living in a 3-bedroom semi) and existing public services which are creaking under the strain of unprecedented population growth soon to be augmented by a new generation of box dwellers in new flats which will further stretch transport, health and school provision.
I realise to say such things is borderline heretical but when you talk to law enforcement they will tell you the degree to which anti-social and illegal activities are controlled by gangs from Eastern Europe and the victims are the migrants themselves.
Taking about "points systems" is fine and may even work but the problems are far more immediate.
I definitely think we should talk openly about the problems of immigration. It has always been an opportunity and moneyspinner for criminal gangs and probably always will be. It obviously can put strain on local resources.
People need to be able to point out real local issues without fear. But we do need immigration, and will have immigration so the question is how do we manage it best?
My view is that if you are a Tory remainer voting Lib Dem it's because your priority is to stop Brexit. I'm entirely unconvinced you'd reconsider that vote as a result of standing aside to give a non-Corbynista Labour remainer a shit at holding the seat against a hard Brexit Tory.
I think Swinson's limitations have been totally exposed already in this campaign. Lightweight, and self-interested added he complete idiocy of the revoke policy which even repels many remainers. As an attempt to move the window on Brexit it was stupidity.
For a party who claim their priority is to stop Brexit, they have funny way of showing it.
Derby North is the Lab seat with the 21st smallest lead over Con, (2015 Votes) and only a modest Lib Dem votes to squeeze (2262 votes) and votes for Brexit 54%
Will he split the lab vote?? I suspect only a few hundred at most? but no local knowledge.
I suspect that he will get enough votes to allow the Tories to win the seat.
What about TBP splitting the leave vote?
It is interesting how many people's opinions on this site are biassed by their own political wishes. The predictions on ths site are supposed to be based around betting tips, which should of course be politically neutral.
I live in the area, if not the seat, and he has an amount of personal popularity in the labour supporting voters. Given the unpopularity of the local labour party in the council I could see people voting for him as a 'non-labour labour' candidate. I could also see Margaret Beckett lose votes in derby south but not enough to lose the seat.
Derby North is the Lab seat with the 21st smallest lead over Con, (2015 Votes) and only a modest Lib Dem votes to squeeze (2262 votes) and votes for Brexit 54%
Will he split the lab vote?? I suspect only a few hundred at most? but no local knowledge.
I suspect that he will get enough votes to allow the Tories to win the seat.
What about TBP splitting the leave vote?
It is interesting how many people's opinions on this site are biassed by their own political wishes. The predictions on ths site are supposed to be based around betting tips, which should of course be politically neutral.
Wholly in the spirit of political neutrality, and based entirely on betting tips, and influenced by the 2/7 odds, Con gain nailed on.
Well the people we need are a mix of high skilled and low skilled, not so much medium skilled. For high skilled points criteria works pretty well. For low skilled it doesnt.
EU immigrants from the EU14 are prominent in education, science and professional jobs, whereas they are underrepresented in retail, transport, construction, manufacturing and support services where the newer EU countries provide more of the people.
We conflate the two and pretend we don't need the low skilled so can pick the best immigrants available and have high financial barriers. We cant as we do need low skilled immigration.
I agree the "I" word is complex and multi-layered. I see the impact of the Single Market and open door migration on a daily basis in my part of the world and it's not pretty. Too many migrants end up being exploited in terms of housing and work (often by their own country men regrettably).
To house the influx of new workers we have a new generation of slums (20 people living in a 3-bedroom semi) and existing public services which are creaking under the strain of unprecedented population growth soon to be augmented by a new generation of box dwellers in new flats which will further stretch transport, health and school provision.
I realise to say such things is borderline heretical but when you talk to law enforcement they will tell you the degree to which anti-social and illegal activities are controlled by gangs from Eastern Europe and the victims are the migrants themselves.
Taking about "points systems" is fine and may even work but the problems are far more immediate.
You think that making it illegal is going to *reduce* the opportunities for criminal gangs?
What a stupid poll question, even the points system Boris wants would still enable EU citizens to live and work in the UK if they have the skills we need
We have a points based system of immigration already.......
Freedom of movement has been portrayed as something the UK was subjected to , as if it was a punishment .
The benefits to Brits to enjoy that freedom has never been properly sold .
The Brits who want to work abroad are already comfortable with low skilled immigration. The Brits who are uncomfortable with low skilled immigration tend not to want to work abroad, so that is not an easy sell.
The sell should always have been being honest about the aging population, and the related completely unaffordable costs of health and elderly care without immigration. Even with high immigration that change is going to be extremely costly for the UK.
Ha ha, you are shitting me. The public really are a funny bunch aren't they. We are rejoining the EU by 2030.
Might require us asking several times - I doubt they'd want us back in too soon, before it was clear it was for keeps.
going back in would be a process. start with EFTA then move to full membership. If we asked to rejoin they'd bite our hands off to get us closer and it'd be EFTA which satisfied both sides initially
If every sex pest MP resigned and was replaced by his wife, it would do wonders for the gender balance in the Commons. There’d pretty much only be women and gays left.
What a stupid poll question, even the points system Boris wants would still enable EU citizens to live and work in the UK if they have the skills we need
We have a points based system of immigration already.......
If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.
Understood. You prefer The Clown to The Cold Warrior.
Many do not want to choose between them, but outside of a few areas, that is not really viable - either, or none, still makes a choice which helps one of them.
I am in a Labour seat with an 11,000 majority. The Lib Dems may take it - though it is unlikely.
I don’t want Corbyn anywhere near power. I feel about him - and have felt this since before he became leader - much as Ian Austin does. Corbyn, IMO, is not fit to be a Labour MP and very definitely not leader or PM. His default assumptions and instincts and judgment are, IMO, wrong and misguided. His political moral compass is pointing in the wrong direction.
I could say much the same about Johnson. I do not want the Tories in power - let alone with a large majority. They have lost any chance of getting my vote. They have been taken over by the Brexit party.
I hope both Corbyn and Johnson can lose and never be heard of again.
I had intended to vote Lib Dems in the vain hope that they are vaguely sensible and neither batshit insane nor malicious.
But bear in mind that Labour candidates like Rosie Duffield are not Corbynistas (in fact a section of her local party are against her for this reason). They would seek to drag Labour to the Remain side and would not give him carte blanche for everything else.
Rubbish - they are enabling Corbyn not constraining him
It's hard to separate out the person from the appearance though. So this kind of exercise is probably doomed to a double-subjectivity. I tried to add the Lib Dems in, but I figured I'm be lynched by the Brexiters for saying that Nick Clegg is a properly beautiful man, and gets his own category. Plus, it's really hard to find pictures of Vince Cable looking young. He seems to have been the same age for the past forty years.
Oh, screw it, here's the Lib Dems too:
Beautiful: Nick Clegg
Possibly attractive in the right light: William Hague Ming Campbell Tony Blair Paddy Ashdown David Cameron Michael Howard
Goofy but still got "something": John Major Charles Kennedy Gordon Brown David Steel Ed Miliband Vince Cable
Gurning lunatics but not totally disgusting: Jo Swinson Jeremy Corbyn Margaret Thatcher Theresa May
Skin crawling: Tim Farron Iain Duncan Smith Neil Kinnock James Callaghan
Hippocrocodogomoose: Michael Foot Boris Johnson
Come at me, PB, this is the hill I choose to die on.
Luciana Berger and Gloria de Piero are pretty hot.
If every sex pest MP resigned and was replaced by his wife, it would do wonders for the gender balance in the Commons. There’d pretty much only be women and gays left.
It's hard to separate out the person from the appearance though. So this kind of exercise is probably doomed to a double-subjectivity. I tried to add the Lib Dems in, but I figured I'm be lynched by the Brexiters for saying that Nick Clegg is a properly beautiful man, and gets his own category. Plus, it's really hard to find pictures of Vince Cable looking young. He seems to have been the same age for the past forty years.
Oh, screw it, here's the Lib Dems too:
Beautiful: Nick Clegg
Possibly attractive in the right light: William Hague Ming Campbell Tony Blair Paddy Ashdown David Cameron Michael Howard
Goofy but still got "something": John Major Charles Kennedy Gordon Brown David Steel Ed Miliband Vince Cable
Gurning lunatics but not totally disgusting: Jo Swinson Jeremy Corbyn Margaret Thatcher Theresa May
Skin crawling: Tim Farron Iain Duncan Smith Neil Kinnock James Callaghan
Hippocrocodogomoose: Michael Foot Boris Johnson
Come at me, PB, this is the hill I choose to die on.
Luciana Berger and Gloria de Piero are pretty hot.
Freedom of movement has been portrayed as something the UK was subjected to , as if it was a punishment .
The benefits to Brits to enjoy that freedom has never been properly sold . It seems also that some in the UK think that FOM stopping only applies to other EU nationals , that Brits will be able to do what they like still .
We've had a referendum campaign and three and a half years of remainiac squealing, if it hasn't been "properly sold" by now it never will be.
My view is that if you are a Tory remainer voting Lib Dem it's because your priority is to stop Brexit. I'm entirely unconvinced you'd reconsider that vote as a result of standing aside to give a non-Corbynista Labour remainer a shit at holding the seat against a hard Brexit Tory...
But that is precisely the objection several on here have expressed, since they place an equal or higher priority on not getting Corbyn.
Buttigieg a touch short at 6.2 right now on Betfair. I've laid back a smidgen, he'll probably shorten further after Iowa anyway.
I last bet on him at 8.7. (And previously in double digits. Some in high double digits.)
The thing is, if he wins Iowa (40% chance) and New Hampshire (60% chance if he wins Iowa), then he's probably a 90% chance for the nomination. So, 6.2 might be short, but only marginally.
If only a PBer had written a thread on him. (HT to Ms Cyclefree.)
If every sex pest MP resigned and was replaced by his wife, it would do wonders for the gender balance in the Commons. There’d pretty much only be women and gays left.
What about the gay sex pest MPs?
They would be replaced by their husbands, so there would still be a gay presence. That’s why I said ‘women and gays.’
Let’s be blunt if Labour become the biggest party is Jo Swinson really going to say no I refuse to support you for enough time to get a second EU vote .
Talk about betrayal then, given the Lib Dems sole mission is to stop Brexit will she really refuse to support them and end up having another election .
The big problem for the Lib Dems is many of their candidates will feel sick if they allow the Tories to come through because they stood in seats which they had no hope of winning but split enough of the Remain vote .
Labour should also be criticized for not coming to some sort of arrangement.
Desperate times call for desperate measures . I’m pretty sure if Keir Starmer was Leader that would have happened .
If every sex pest MP resigned and was replaced by his wife, it would do wonders for the gender balance in the Commons. There’d pretty much only be women and gays left.
If every sex pest MP resigned and was replaced by his wife, it would do wonders for the gender balance in the . There’d pretty much only be women and gays left.
What about the gay sex pest MPs?
They would be replaced by their husbands, so there would still be a gay presence. That’s why I said ‘women and gays.’
In these more enlightened times I would hope that sex pest MPs would be replaced by their ex-wives and ex-husbands.
He was up to 15% in New Hampshire as well, within 5% of first place.
How seriously do you rate this meme that African-American Democrats won’t vote (and aren’t ready for) an openly gay man?
As seriously as I rated the meme that "Evangelicals won't vote for a proven liar and fornicator who paid for abortions for women he had extra-marital affairs with".
The problem will manifest itself in turnout rather than vote share.
Sure, but it's swings and roundabouts. A pleasant, clean, sensible, young, Christian ex-veteran who's appealing to suburbanites will do better in swing state Iowa than some of the other candidates. I think Buttigieg does better than Biden in Iowa and Arizona. And Wisconsin was won - by a massive margin - by an openly lesbian woman last year, so hard to conclude that gayness is going to be a big negative there. Indeed, the only states where his homosexuality is likely to be a big issue (like North Carolina), were probably out of reach to any Democratic nominee in 2020.
Only 76% of Americans would be willing to vote for a well qualified gay President, but in turn only 63% of Americans say they would vote for a candidate over 70. Given his likely opponents are nearly all over 70 the voters will have to choose one characteristic or other that might not be their first preference.
Buttigieg represents a completely fresh start just by looking at him thanks to his youth. His main pitch has been a new generation plus his experience as a city boss and stuff like serving military. Will exhausted Dem primary vote turn away from the oldsters (warren/biden) and throw the dice on a fresh start? I have bet they will.
I think voters tend to choose an opposite when ejecting a leader. Trump is so weird pretty much any candidate could be an opposite, but in particular Sanders might be too similar and Warren and Buttigieg meet the opposite criteria strongly.
Yep. But Warren is McGovern. She will lose is my hunch. How will Trump deal with Buttigieg? The "weird name kid"?
He'll describe him as gauche and self-made, and point out that he buys his own furniture.
That sounds much more like Trump himself than Buttigieg. From what I have seen of him, he seems sensible, socially competent and highly intelligent.
If every sex pest MP resigned and was replaced by his wife, it would do wonders for the gender balance in the . There’d pretty much only be women and gays left.
What about the gay sex pest MPs?
They would be replaced by their husbands, so there would still be a gay presence. That’s why I said ‘women and gays.’
In these more enlightened times I would hope that sex pest MPs would be replaced by their ex-wives and ex-husbands.
Doesn’t appear to be the case in Dover and Burton.
If every sex pest MP resigned and was replaced by his wife, it would do wonders for the gender balance in the Commons. There’d pretty much only be women and gays left.
What about the gay sex pest MPs?
Gay sex pest HARDCORE REMAINER MPs, surely?
Be careful which search engines you type that into.
If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.
Understood. You prefer The Clown to The Cold Warrior.
Many do not want to choose between them, but outside of a few areas, that is not really viable - either, or none, still makes a choice which helps one of them.
I am in a Labour seat with an 11,000 majority. The Lib Dems may take it - though it is unlikely.
I don’t want Corbyn anywhere near power. I feel about him - and have felt this since before he became leader - much as Ian Austin does. Corbyn, IMO, is not fit to be a Labour MP and very definitely not leader or PM. His default assumptions and instincts and judgment are, IMO, wrong and misguided. His political moral compass is pointing in the wrong direction.
I could say much the same about Johnson. I do not want the Tories in power - let alone with a large majority. They have lost any chance of getting my vote. They have been taken over by the Brexit party.
I hope both Corbyn and Johnson can lose and never be heard of again.
I had intended to vote Lib Dems in the vain hope that they are vaguely sensible and neither batshit insane nor malicious.
But bear in mind that Labour candidates like Rosie Duffield are not Corbynistas (in fact a section of her local party are against her for this reason). They would seek to drag Labour to the Remain side and would not give him carte blanche for everything else.
That’s as maybe. These “moderates” have so far achieved the square root of fuck all in tempering or controlling Corbyn.
But the key point is this: a vote for a Labour MP while Corbyn is leader is a vote for Corbyn to become PM. And the more votes Labour gets the more likely that he will become PM and, even if not, remain as Labour leader? Those Labour MPs who go on about how moderate and anti-Corbyn they are are fooling themselves, as well as the voters.
Buttigieg a touch short at 6.2 right now on Betfair. I've laid back a smidgen, he'll probably shorten further after Iowa anyway.
Buttigieg is spending a fortune in Iowa but beyond there he is not making much impact
Laughable.
He's on 15%, only five points behind Biden in New Hampshire, and up about seven points in the last month.
If he wins Iowa, the he's odds on to win New Hamphire.
If he's won Iowa and New Hampshire then... oh yes... he's probably the Democratic nominee.
Doesn’t the new system make that much less certain? With delegates awarded proportionately, the convention is likely to be determinative. Pete Buttigieg might be good at horse-trading. Or he might not. We don’t know yet.
There’s a poll out tonight showing 67% of Britons support freedom of movement across the UK and EU. Which makes me again wonder why we bothered with this pointless Brexit lark in the first place.
If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.
Understood. You prefer The Clown to The Cold Warrior.
Many do not want to choose between them, but outside of a few areas, that is not really viable - either, or none, still makes a choice which helps one of them.
I am in a Labour seat with an 11,000 majority. The Lib Dems may take it - though it is unlikely.
I don’t want Corbyn anywhere near power. I feel about him - and have felt this since before he became leader - much as Ian Austin does. Corbyn, IMO, is not fit to be a Labour MP and very definitely not leader or PM. His default assumptions and instincts and judgment are, IMO, wrong and misguided. His political moral compass is pointing in the wrong direction.
I could say much the same about Johnson. I do not want the Tories in power - let alone with a large majority. They have lost any chance of getting my vote. They have been taken over by the Brexit party.
I hope both Corbyn and Johnson can lose and never be heard of again.
I had intended to vote Lib Dems in the vain hope that they are vaguely sensible and neither batshit insane nor malicious.
That’s roughly what I’ve been saying for months. But here I don’t even have that choice to make as the Oranges have run away, endorsing the Greens who we all know are Corbyn with extra environmentalism.
So I do not know what do to now.
If all the remaining available choices are utterly repellent, then abstention could be considered honourable?
as a brexiteer in a seat held by a remainer tory I now have a choice of three variants of remain and no leave candidate. Spoilt ballot will get my vote.
If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.
Understood. You prefer The Clown to The Cold Warrior.
Many do not want to choose between them, but outside of a few areas, that is not really viable - either, or none, still makes a choice which helps one of them.
I am in a Labour seat with an 11,000 majority. The Lib Dems may take it - though it is unlikely.
I don’t want Corbyn anywhere near power. I feel about him - and have felt this since before he became leader - much as Ian Austin does. Corbyn, IMO, is not fit to be a Labour MP and very definitely not leader or PM. His default assumptions and instincts and judgment are, IMO, wrong and misguided. His political moral compass is pointing in the wrong direction.
I could say much the same about Johnson. I do not want the Tories in power - let alone with a large majority. They have lost any chance of getting my vote. They have been taken over by the Brexit party.
I hope both Corbyn and Johnson can lose and never be heard of again.
I had intended to vote Lib Dems in the vain hope that they are vaguely sensible and neither batshit insane nor malicious.
But bear in mind that Labour candidates like Rosie Duffield are not Corbynistas (in fact a section of her local party are against her for this reason). They would seek to drag Labour to the Remain side and would not give him carte blanche for everything else.
That’s as maybe. These “moderates” have so far achieved the square root of fuck all in tempering or controlling Corbyn.
But the key point is this: a vote for a Labour MP while Corbyn is leader is a vote for Corbyn to become PM. And the more votes Labour gets the more likely that he will become PM and, even if not, remain as Labour leader? Those Labour MPs who go on about how moderate and anti-Corbyn they are are fooling themselves, as well as the voters.
You could say the same about the Tories, moderate MPs/ candidates may take a more mainstream view on Brexit but every vote for a moderate Tory MP is a vote to make BJ PM and take us to No Deal....
My view is that if you are a Tory remainer voting Lib Dem it's because your priority is to stop Brexit. I'm entirely unconvinced you'd reconsider that vote as a result of standing aside to give a non-Corbynista Labour remainer a shit at holding the seat against a hard Brexit Tory...
But that is precisely the objection several on here have expressed, since they place an equal or higher priority on not getting Corbyn.
Nice typo, btw.
Oh absolutely - and the Conservatives would do well to have another tilt at discrediting Corbyn during this campaign, because it is quite possible that the result will hinge on whether the soft Remain Tory vote will stay loyal out of fear of enabling him. There's even a theory that Johnson has only agreed to head-to-head debates with Corbyn in order to remind his own wavering supporters of how much they detest the Labour leader.
I would even go so far as to say that a non-negligible percentage of Leave voters will back the Lib Dems in straight LD-Lab fights, again because they place so much value on keeping Corbyn as far away from power as possible that they are prepared to endorse a Revocation-supporting candidate. I know that I would.
If every sex pest MP resigned and was replaced by his wife, it would do wonders for the gender balance in the Commons. There’d pretty much only be women and gays left.
He was up to 15% in New Hampshire as well, within 5% of first place.
How seriously do you rate this meme that African-American Democrats won’t vote (and aren’t ready for) an openly gay man?
As seriously as I rated the meme that "Evangelicals won't vote for a proven liar and fornicator who paid for abortions for women he had extra-marital affairs with".
The problem will manifest itself in turnout rather than vote share.
Sure, but it's swings and roundabouts. A pleasant, clean, sensible, young, Christian ex-veteran who's appealing to suburbanites will do better in swing state Iowa than some of the other candidates. I think Buttigieg does better than Biden in Iowa and Arizona. And Wisconsin was won - by a massive margin - by an openly lesbian woman last year, so hard to conclude that gayness is going to be a big negative there. Indeed, the only states where his homosexuality is likely to be a big issue (like North Carolina), were probably out of reach to any Democratic nominee in 2020.
Only 76% of Americans would be willing to vote for a well qualified gay President, but in turn only 63% of Americans say they would vote for a candidate over 70. Given his likely opponents are nearly all over 70 the voters will have to choose one characteristic or other that might not be their first preference.
Buttigieg represents a completely fresh start just by looking at him thanks to his youth. His main pitch has been a new generation plus his experience as a city boss and stuff like serving military. Will exhausted Dem primary vote turn away from the oldsters (warren/biden) and throw the dice on a fresh start? I have bet they will.
I think voters tend to choose an opposite when ejecting a leader. Trump is so weird pretty much any candidate could be an opposite, but in particular Sanders might be too similar and Warren and Buttigieg meet the opposite criteria strongly.
Yep. But Warren is McGovern. She will lose is my hunch. How will Trump deal with Buttigieg? The "weird name kid"?
He'll describe him as gauche and self-made, and point out that he buys his own furniture.
That sounds much more like Trump himself than Buttigieg. From what I have seen of him, he seems sensible, socially competent and highly intelligent.
I know, and that's why he'll trounce the gay guy with the funny name.
Buttigieg a touch short at 6.2 right now on Betfair. I've laid back a smidgen, he'll probably shorten further after Iowa anyway.
Buttigieg is spending a fortune in Iowa but beyond there he is not making much impact
Laughable.
He's on 15%, only five points behind Biden in New Hampshire, and up about seven points in the last month.
If he wins Iowa, the he's odds on to win New Hamphire.
If he's won Iowa and New Hampshire then... oh yes... he's probably the Democratic nominee.
A gay presidential candidate and the Dems really will have handed the election to Trump , you’re not going to win the key swing states .
Sorry to be blunt and not politically correct but seriously there’s no chance the USA will vote for a gay President . The Dems need to get out of their bubble and put forward Biden who is the only one who can win those swing states .
Running up big totals in California and NY means zip with the Electoral College system .
If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.
Understood. You prefer The Clown to The Cold Warrior.
Many do not want to choose between them, but outside of a few areas, that is not really viable - either, or none, still makes a choice which helps one of them.
I am in a Labour seat with an 11,000 majority. The Lib Dems may take it - though it is unlikely.
I don’t want Corbyn anywhere near power. I feel about him - and have felt this since before he became leader - much as Ian Austin does. Corbyn, IMO, is not fit to be a Labour MP and very definitely not leader or PM. His default assumptions and instincts and judgment are, IMO, wrong and misguided. His political moral compass is pointing in the wrong direction.
I could say much the same about Johnson. I do not want the Tories in power - let alone with a large majority. They have lost any chance of getting my vote. They have been taken over by the Brexit party.
I hope both Corbyn and Johnson can lose and never be heard of again.
I had intended to vote Lib Dems in the vain hope that they are vaguely sensible and neither batshit insane nor malicious.
But bear in mind that Labour candidates like Rosie Duffield are not Corbynistas (in fact a section of her local party are against her for this reason). They would seek to drag Labour to the Remain side and would not give him carte blanche for everything else.
That’s as maybe. These “moderates” have so far achieved the square root of fuck all in tempering or controlling Corbyn.
But the key point is this: a vote for a Labour MP while Corbyn is leader is a vote for Corbyn to become PM. And the more votes Labour gets the more likely that he will become PM and, even if not, remain as Labour leader? Those Labour MPs who go on about how moderate and anti-Corbyn they are are fooling themselves, as well as the voters.
You could say the same about the Tories, moderate MPs/ candidates may take a more mainstream view on Brexit but every vote for a moderate Tory MP is a vote to make BJ PM and take us to No Deal....
You could. However, there is a tried and tested mechanism for rapid disposal of Tory leaders who mess up.
Remind me what happened when Labour tried that with Corbyn?
There’s a poll out tonight showing 67% of Britons support freedom of movement across the UK and EU. Which makes me again wonder why we bothered with this pointless Brexit lark in the first place.
To solve certain internal problems within the Conservative Party.
If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.
Understood. You prefer The Clown to The Cold Warrior.
Many do not want to choose between them, but outside of a few areas, that is not really viable - either, or none, still makes a choice which helps one of them.
I am in a Labour seat with an 11,000 majority. The Lib Dems may take it - though it is unlikely.
I don’t want Corbyn anywhere near power. I feel about him - and have felt this since before he became leader - much as Ian Austin does. Corbyn, IMO, is not fit to be a Labour MP and very definitely not leader or PM. His default assumptions and instincts and judgment are, IMO, wrong and misguided. His political moral compass is pointing in the wrong direction.
I could say much the same about Johnson. I do not want the Tories in power - let alone with a large majority. They have lost any chance of getting my vote. They have been taken over by the Brexit party.
I hope both Corbyn and Johnson can lose and never be heard of again.
I had intended to vote Lib Dems in the vain hope that they are vaguely sensible and neither batshit insane nor malicious.
But bear in mind that Labour candidates like Rosie Duffield are not Corbynistas (in fact a section of her local party are against her for this reason). They would seek to drag Labour to the Remain side and would not give him carte blanche for everything else.
That’s as maybe. These “moderates” have so far achieved the square root of fuck all in tempering or controlling Corbyn.
But the key point is this: a vote for a Labour MP while Corbyn is leader is a vote for Corbyn to become PM. And the more votes Labour gets the more likely that he will become PM and, even if not, remain as Labour leader? Those Labour MPs who go on about how moderate and anti-Corbyn they are are fooling themselves, as well as the voters.
You could say the same about the Tories, moderate MPs/ candidates may take a more mainstream view on Brexit but every vote for a moderate Tory MP is a vote to make BJ PM and take us to No Deal....
Boris has a Deal which will lead to a FTA, only Farage is a vote for No Deal
If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.
Understood. You prefer The Clown to The Cold Warrior.
Many do not want to choose between them, but outside of a few areas, that is not really viable - either, or none, still makes a choice which helps one of them.
I am in a Labour seat with an 11,000 majority. The Lib Dems may take it - though it is unlikely.
I don’t want Corbyn anywhere near power. I feel about him - and have felt this since before he became leader - much as Ian Austin does. Corbyn, IMO, is not fit to be a Labour MP and very definitely not leader or PM. His default assumptions and instincts and judgment are, IMO, wrong and misguided. His political moral compass is pointing in the wrong direction.
I could say much the same about Johnson. I do not want the Tories in power - let alone with a large majority. They have lost any chance of getting my vote. They have been taken over by the Brexit party.
I hope both Corbyn and Johnson can lose and never be heard of again.
I had intended to vote Lib Dems in the vain hope that they are vaguely sensible and neither batshit insane nor malicious.
But bear in mind that Labour candidates like Rosie Duffield are not Corbynistas (in fact a section of her local party are against her for this reason). They would seek to drag Labour to the Remain side and would not give him carte blanche for everything else.
Rubbish - they are enabling Corbyn not constraining him
Enabling him to do what? It is the existence of Remainer MPs like Rosie Duffield which has forced Corbyn to shift Labour's Brexit position to Renegotiate and Final Say.
If all the remaining available choices are utterly repellent, then abstention could be considered honourable?
as a brexiteer in a seat held by a remainer tory I now have a choice of three variants of remain and no leave candidate. Spoilt ballot will get my vote.
Under those circumstances you surely want to go for the Tory? The fact that said candidate might, personally, have preferred that we never leave the EU is neither here nor there. They will endorse the Withdrawal Agreement regardless.
All of the Conservative MPs who were so implacably opposed to Brexit that they wanted to force either Norway + CU, a confirmatory referendum or both have already gone. Any candidate returned or elected for the first time under the 2019 manifesto is fully signed up to Johnson's programme.
Even if you suspect that your local Tory might get up to funny business during the negotiations on the future relationship, at least they will give Brexit the chance to get that far. If given the opportunity, the other alternatives either may not or will not do so.
He was up to 15% in New Hampshire as well, within 5% of first place.
How seriously do you rate this meme that African-American Democrats won’t vote (and aren’t ready for) an openly gay man?
As seriously as I rated the meme that "Evangelicals won't vote for a proven liar and fornicator who paid for abortions for women he had extra-marital affairs with".
The problem will manifest itself in turnout rather than vote share.
Sure, but it's swings and roundabouts. A pleasant, clean, sensible, young, Christian ex-veteran who's appealing
Only 76% of Americans would be willing to vote for a well qualified gay President, but in turn only 63% of Americans say they would vote for a candidate over 70. Given his likely opponents are nearly all over 70 the voters will have to choose one characteristic or other that might not be their first preference.
Buttigieg represents a completely fresh start just by looking at him thanks to his youth. His main pitch has been a new generation plus his experience as a city boss and stuff like serving military. Will exhausted Dem primary vote turn away from the oldsters (warren/biden) and throw the dice on a fresh start? I have bet they will.
I think voters tend to choose an opposite when ejecting a leader. Trump is so weird pretty much any candidate could be an opposite, but in particular Sanders might be too similar and Warren and Buttigieg meet the opposite criteria strongly.
Yep. But Warren is McGovern. She will lose is my hunch. How will Trump deal with Buttigieg? The "weird name kid"?
He'll describe him as gauche and self-made, and point out that he buys his own furniture.
That sounds much more like Trump himself than Buttigieg. From what I have seen of him, he seems sensible, socially competent and highly intelligent.
Just a bit of a policy vacuum. Certainly a lack of belief and ideology is not a bar to a political career, likely to be exposed though.
There’s a poll out tonight showing 67% of Britons support freedom of movement across the UK and EU. Which makes me again wonder why we bothered with this pointless Brexit lark in the first place.
To solve certain internal problems within the Conservative Party.
Its like saying people want higher taxes, as long as they are for someone else.
They don't mind immigration , till they cant find somewhere to live.
These polling questions are just simplistic bullshit.
There’s a poll out tonight showing 67% of Britons support freedom of movement across the UK and EU. Which makes me again wonder why we bothered with this pointless Brexit lark in the first place.
No it is a crap poll which basically asks whether EU migration should be banned or not.
As Survation has found 59% of voters back Boris' points based system to replace free movement
There’s a poll out tonight showing 67% of Britons support freedom of movement across the UK and EU. Which makes me again wonder why we bothered with this pointless Brexit lark in the first place.
Because for many of us it had sweet FA to do with immigration.
If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.
Understood. You prefer The Clown to The Cold Warrior.
Many do not want to choose between them, but outside of a few areas, that is not really viable - either, or none, still makes a choice which helps one of them.
I am in a Labour seat with an 11,000 majority. The Lib Dems may take it - though it is unlikely.
I could say much the same about Johnson. I do not want the Tories in power - let alone with a large majority. They have lost any chance of getting my vote. They have been taken over by the Brexit party.
I hope both Corbyn and Johnson can lose and never be heard of again.
I had intended to vote Lib Dems in the vain hope that they are vaguely sensible and neither batshit insane nor malicious.
But bear in mind that Labour candidates like Rosie Duffield are not Corbynistas (in fact a section of her local party are against her for this reason). They would seek to drag Labour to the Remain side and would not give him carte blanche for everything else.
That’s as maybe. These “moderates” have so far achieved the square root of fuck all in tempering or controlling Corbyn.
But the key point is this: a vote for a Labour MP while Corbyn is leader is a vote for Corbyn to become PM. And the more votes Labour gets the more likely that he will become PM and, even if not, remain as Labour leader? Those Labour MPs who go on about how moderate and anti-Corbyn they are are fooling themselves, as well as the voters.
You could say the same about the Tories, moderate MPs/ candidates may take a more mainstream view on Brexit but every vote for a moderate Tory MP is a vote to make BJ PM and take us to No Deal....
You could. However, there is a tried and tested mechanism for rapid disposal of Tory leaders who mess up.
Remind me what happened when Labour tried that with Corbyn?
The Tories did not get rid of TM on the first attempt, she was VONC last year (Dec2018?) IIRC. Indeed several attempts were made before they got the VONC, it was a protracted affair. BJ might be as hard to ditch as TM! BJ is more of a problem as well because he takes big chances/gambles. Not the sort of person you want in the nations driving seat....
Buttigieg a touch short at 6.2 right now on Betfair. I've laid back a smidgen, he'll probably shorten further after Iowa anyway.
Buttigieg is spending a fortune in Iowa but beyond there he is not making much impact
Laughable.
He's on 15%, only five points behind Biden in New Hampshire, and up about seven points in the last month.
If he wins Iowa, the he's odds on to win New Hamphire.
If he's won Iowa and New Hampshire then... oh yes... he's probably the Democratic nominee.
Doesn’t the new system make that much less certain? With delegates awarded proportionately, the convention is likely to be determinative. Pete Buttigieg might be good at horse-trading. Or he might not. We don’t know yet.
I thought that.
But then I remembered the 15% threshold (albeit at the precinct level). This means we're likely to see four candidates (at most).
Take Iowa. Imagine the players are Warren, Buttigieg, Biden, Sanders in that order. Well, it'll probably be 40-30-20-10 for delegate share. In New Hampshire, it'll be the same four. And the fourth placed player - unless there's a big reshuffling of the deck - will likely be forced out.
I think it's likely that come Super Tuesday there will only be three players in the game. Which three? Who knows.
If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.
Understood. You prefer The Clown to The Cold Warrior.
Many do not want to choose between them, but outside of a few areas, that is not really viable - either, or none, still makes a choice which helps one of them.
I am in a Labour seat with an 11,000 majority. The Lib Dems may take it - though it is unlikely.
I don’t want Corbyn anywhere near power. I feel about him - and have felt this since before he became leader - much as Ian Austin does. Corbyn, IMO, is not fit to be a Labour MP and very definitely not leader or PM. His default assumptions and instincts and judgment are, IMO, wrong and misguided. His political moral compass is pointing in the wrong direction.
I could say much the same about Johnson. I do not want the Tories in power - let alone with a large majority. They have lost any chance of getting my vote. They have been taken over by the Brexit party.
I hope both Corbyn and Johnson can lose and never be heard of again.
I had intended to vote Lib Dems in the vain hope that they are vaguely sensible and neither batshit insane nor malicious.
But bear in mind that Labour candidates like Rosie Duffield are not Corbynistas (in fact a section of her local party are against her for this reason). They would seek to drag Labour to the Remain side and would not give him carte blanche for everything else.
That’s as maybe. These “moderates” have so far achieved the square root of fuck all in tempering or controlling Corbyn.
But the key point is this: a vote for a Labour MP while Corbyn is leader is a vote for Corbyn to become PM. And the more votes Labour gets the more likely that he will become PM and, even if not, remain as Labour leader? Those Labour MPs who go on about how moderate and anti-Corbyn they are are fooling themselves, as well as the voters.
I am not sure if that's the whole story @Cyclefree...
If Boris is not PM after the election the mix of Labour MPs will be important in shaping the future, either in moderating PM Corbyn or in helping ensure someone other than Corbyn leads a non-Tory administration.
I think the world where party loyalties hold firm has passed and thus the more moderate MPs we have (Lab or Con) the more chance we have of moderating the extremes of whichever party leads the government.
If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.
Understood. You prefer The Clown to The Cold Warrior.
Many do not want to choose between them, but outside of a few areas, that is not really viable - either, or none, still makes a choice which helps one of them.
I am in a Labour seat with an 11,000 majority. The Lib Dems may take it - though it is unlikely.
I don’t want Corbyn anywhere near power. I feel about him - and have felt this since before he became leader - much as Ian Austin does. Corbyn, IMO, is not fit to be a Labour MP and very definitely not leader or PM. His default assumptions and instincts and judgment are, IMO, wrong and misguided. His political moral compass is pointing in the wrong direction.
I could say much the same about Johnson. I do not want the Tories in power - let alone with a large majority. They have lost any chance of getting my vote. They have been taken over by the Brexit party.
I hope both Corbyn and Johnson can lose and never be heard of again.
I had intended to vote Lib Dems in the vain hope that they are vaguely sensible and neither batshit insane nor malicious.
That’s roughly what I’ve been saying for months. But here I don’t even have that choice to make as the Oranges have run away, endorsing the Greens who we all know are Corbyn with extra environmentalism.
So I do not know what do to now.
If all the remaining available choices are utterly repellent, then abstention could be considered honourable?
as a brexiteer in a seat held by a remainer tory I now have a choice of three variants of remain and no leave candidate. Spoilt ballot will get my vote.
Same, though I doubt i'll bother to go and spoil the ballot. This election will be the first time I will not be voting.
Buttigieg a touch short at 6.2 right now on Betfair. I've laid back a smidgen, he'll probably shorten further after Iowa anyway.
Buttigieg is spending a fortune in Iowa but beyond there he is not making much impact
Laughable.
He's on 15%, only five points behind Biden in New Hampshire, and up about seven points in the last month.
If he wins Iowa, the he's odds on to win New Hamphire.
If he's won Iowa and New Hampshire then... oh yes... he's probably the Democratic nominee.
Doesn’t the new system make that much less certain? With delegates awarded proportionately, the convention is likely to be determinative. Pete Buttigieg might be good at horse-trading. Or he might not. We don’t know yet.
Yes, I think there is a touch of a Robert being influenced by his own book there.
Of course it’s possible that Biden’s strength in S.Carolina melts away in those circumstances, but it’s equally possible it doesn’t. (And also quite likely that Buttigieg doesn’t win New Hampshire after Iowa.)
Comments
EU immigrants from the EU14 are prominent in education, science and professional jobs, whereas they are underrepresented in retail, transport, construction, manufacturing and support services where the newer EU countries provide more of the people.
We conflate the two and pretend we dont need the low skilled so can pick the best immigrants available and have high financial barriers. We cant as we do need low skilled immigration.
Will he split the lab vote?? I suspect only a few hundred at most? but no local knowledge.
Literally the only thing that could stop it is Murray running as an Independent.
Unemployment rates in the UK: EU immigrants 3.4% UK citizens 4.1% non EU 5.7%
% of unemployed claiming benefits: EU 16%, UK 26%, non EU 19%
so % of workforce unemployed and claiming benefits: EU 0.5% UK 1% non EU 1.1%
Id say the answer is just wait for them to get a job or for them to choose to leave to somewhere they have greater prospects. It is just 1 in 200 of the EU workforce.
CON 38.1% (+0.2)
LAB 28.2% (+1.9)
LD 16.1% (+0.1)
BXP 9.1% (-1.3)
SNP 3.7% (+0.1)
GRN 3.4% (-0.2)
PC 0.6% (-0.2)
Oth 0.8% (-0.5)
CON lead 9.9% (-1.4)
10 polls = Survation, BMG, ComRes, Deltapoll, Opinium, Panelbase, ICM, 3 YouGovs
I had no special insight, mind. I just start from the assumption that PB's new Rogerdamus is wrong and bet accordingly.
Somehow he seems to have a blindspot about good looking, young-ish, centrist candidates.
To house the influx of new workers we have a new generation of slums (20 people living in a 3-bedroom semi) and existing public services which are creaking under the strain of unprecedented population growth soon to be augmented by a new generation of box dwellers in new flats which will further stretch transport, health and school provision.
I realise to say such things is borderline heretical but when you talk to law enforcement they will tell you the degree to which anti-social and illegal activities are controlled by gangs from Eastern Europe and the victims are the migrants themselves.
Taking about "points systems" is fine and may even work but the problems are far more immediate.
My view is that if you are a Tory remainer voting Lib Dem it's because your priority is to stop Brexit. I'm entirely unconvinced you'd reconsider that vote as a result of standing aside to give a non-Corbynista Labour remainer a shit at holding the seat against a hard Brexit Tory.
I think Swinson's limitations have been totally exposed already in this campaign. Lightweight, and self-interested added he complete idiocy of the revoke policy which even repels many remainers. As an attempt to move the window on Brexit it was stupidity.
For a party who claim their priority is to stop Brexit, they have funny way of showing it.
It is interesting how many people's opinions on this site are biassed by their own political wishes. The predictions on ths site are supposed to be based around betting tips, which should of course be politically neutral.
The benefits to Brits to enjoy that freedom has never been properly sold . It seems also that some in the UK think that FOM stopping only applies to other EU nationals , that Brits will be able to do what they like still .
People need to be able to point out real local issues without fear. But we do need immigration, and will have immigration so the question is how do we manage it best?
We are rejoining the EU by 2030.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/708162/Theresa-May-migration-Brexit-Nigel-Farage-Ukip
The Brits who are uncomfortable with low skilled immigration tend not to want to work abroad, so that is not an easy sell.
The sell should always have been being honest about the aging population, and the related completely unaffordable costs of health and elderly care without immigration. Even with high immigration that change is going to be extremely costly for the UK.
I'm straight mate.
Nice typo, btw.
The thing is, if he wins Iowa (40% chance) and New Hampshire (60% chance if he wins Iowa), then he's probably a 90% chance for the nomination. So, 6.2 might be short, but only marginally.
If only a PBer had written a thread on him. (HT to Ms Cyclefree.)
Talk about betrayal then, given the Lib Dems sole mission is to stop Brexit will she really refuse to support them and end up having another election .
The big problem for the Lib Dems is many of their candidates will feel sick if they allow the Tories to come through because they stood in seats which they had no hope of winning but split enough of the Remain vote .
Labour should also be criticized for not coming to some sort of arrangement.
Desperate times call for desperate measures . I’m pretty sure if Keir Starmer was Leader that would have happened .
He's on 15%, only five points behind Biden in New Hampshire, and up about seven points in the last month.
If he wins Iowa, the he's odds on to win New Hamphire.
If he's won Iowa and New Hampshire then... oh yes... he's probably the Democratic nominee.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/12/revealed-conservative-councillors-islamophobic-social-media
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_New_Hampshire_Democratic_primary
Buttigieg is 6th in the latest SC polls behind Biden, Warren, Sanders, Harris and Steyer
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_South_Carolina_Democratic_primary
Obama won Iowa but lost New Hampshire in 2008 as did Hillary in 2016 as did Cruz and Santorum and Huckabee on the GOP side in 2016, 2012 and 2008
Ex-Armed Forces head Lord Bramall dies aged 95
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50397069
But the key point is this: a vote for a Labour MP while Corbyn is leader is a vote for Corbyn to become PM. And the more votes Labour gets the more likely that he will become PM and, even if not, remain as Labour leader? Those Labour MPs who go on about how moderate and anti-Corbyn they are are fooling themselves, as well as the voters.
From a betting returns point of view best if he wins it though.
I would even go so far as to say that a non-negligible percentage of Leave voters will back the Lib Dems in straight LD-Lab fights, again because they place so much value on keeping Corbyn as far away from power as possible that they are prepared to endorse a Revocation-supporting candidate. I know that I would.
Sorry to be blunt and not politically correct but seriously there’s no chance the USA will vote for a gay President . The Dems need to get out of their bubble and put forward Biden who is the only one who can win those swing states .
Running up big totals in California and NY means zip with the Electoral College system .
Remind me what happened when Labour tried that with Corbyn?
She's still in the race
All of the Conservative MPs who were so implacably opposed to Brexit that they wanted to force either Norway + CU, a confirmatory referendum or both have already gone. Any candidate returned or elected for the first time under the 2019 manifesto is fully signed up to Johnson's programme.
Even if you suspect that your local Tory might get up to funny business during the negotiations on the future relationship, at least they will give Brexit the chance to get that far. If given the opportunity, the other alternatives either may not or will not do so.
They don't mind immigration , till they cant find somewhere to live.
These polling questions are just simplistic bullshit.
As Survation has found 59% of voters back Boris' points based system to replace free movement
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/708162/Theresa-May-migration-Brexit-Nigel-Farage-Ukip
But then I remembered the 15% threshold (albeit at the precinct level). This means we're likely to see four candidates (at most).
Take Iowa. Imagine the players are Warren, Buttigieg, Biden, Sanders in that order. Well, it'll probably be 40-30-20-10 for delegate share. In New Hampshire, it'll be the same four. And the fourth placed player - unless there's a big reshuffling of the deck - will likely be forced out.
I think it's likely that come Super Tuesday there will only be three players in the game. Which three? Who knows.
If Boris is not PM after the election the mix of Labour MPs will be important in shaping the future, either in moderating PM Corbyn or in helping ensure someone other than Corbyn leads a non-Tory administration.
I think the world where party loyalties hold firm has passed and thus the more moderate MPs we have (Lab or Con) the more chance we have of moderating the extremes of whichever party leads the government.
Of course it’s possible that Biden’s strength in S.Carolina melts away in those circumstances, but it’s equally possible it doesn’t.
(And also quite likely that Buttigieg doesn’t win New Hampshire after Iowa.)
Odds on, just possibly - but 90%, no way.