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  • HYUFD said:

    blueblue said:

    humbugger said:

    blueblue said:

    Didn't BJO say something a little earlier along the lines of 'Wait for Comres'? *innocent face* :wink:
    The fieldwork is before the Farage announcement. With BXP on 9% this looks a solid poll for the Tories.
    I know - I was just doing a bit of gentle ribbing of BJO, who was presumably expecting a Survation-like result.
    Even Survation had a 6% Tory lead
    YG fieldwork end-date was today - it has 14% lead.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875

    There’s a poll out tonight showing 67% of Britons support freedom of movement across the UK and EU. Which makes me again wonder why we bothered with this pointless Brexit lark in the first place.

    Because for many of us it had sweet FA to do with immigration.
    Lets say we leave with Johnson's deal. How is anyone going to keep the majority of the country happy when the reasons for leave are diverse and sometimes different groups of leavers have completely opposite objectives?

    When the leave coalition breaks down, as it surely will, we will be vulnerable to Corbynism, probably a post Corbyn version, but it will be radical and dangerous.

    Johnson cannot deliver on the promises he has made. At some point relatively soon his lies will catch up with him. When they do things will get very unpleasant. For him, the Tories and, most importantly, for the country. It’s just a matter of when.

    Indeed. Those who are cheering on a Tory majority to stop Corbyn are making a long term error imo. The best way to stop Corbynism is for him to be nominally in charge of a shit situation now, but constrained by the SNP and LD.

    A Tory majority has a far greater chance of leading to eventual real Corbynism, particularly as the age and home ownership demographics will be further against the Tories in 5 years time.
    One doesn't win by losing - look at the Labour Cabinet of 1979, some of whom thought Labour would soon return to power refreshed by a brief spell in opposition...
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    kle4 said:

    nunu2 said:

    Scrap that about Canterbury 😂

    LDs still intend to stand, so I'll put it back in the CON GAIN column. https://t.co/pBIU7yEY9I

    I think Labour will hold it.

    This is the realignment election that 2017 was supposed to be.
    Anecdotally it does feel like trends that saw results or near results like that will accelerate this time.
    It's like the midwest going towards the GOP and the sun belt going more Democratic.

    Funnily enough the geography seems to be similar in both countries by coincidence.
  • kle4 said:

    One of my junior team members turned 21 today. I reflected on his historical experience. He was born in 1997. He would have no memory of September 11. He would have been in his last year of primary school when the credit crunch hit.

    He would have no memory of any time of anything other than at best anaemic economic growth. The idea of a long term growth rate of 2% would sound ridiculous. His Britain has been one of permanent stagnation.

    He will have the opportunity to vote in a second general election next month. I can’t imagine he’s seen much to inspire him.

    It goes back further than that. I was born in 1992 and you can argue the same applies.
    Given the veneration of youth views at present we should definitely listen to you, not many younger.

    Ah, I remember the days of the 2010 GE on PB. 23 years young I was, what a time.
    I was 24 when following the results of the 2005GE on pb.com (and the BBC, and other sources). However, my wife has now booked us a long weekend away from Thursday 12th, and I'm forbidden to use the internet that weekend. She intends for us not to find out the result until the Sunday!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    kle4 said:

    One of my junior team members turned 21 today. I reflected on his historical experience. He was born in 1997. He would have no memory of September 11. He would have been in his last year of primary school when the credit crunch hit.

    He would have no memory of any time of anything other than at best anaemic economic growth. The idea of a long term growth rate of 2% would sound ridiculous. His Britain has been one of permanent stagnation.

    He will have the opportunity to vote in a second general election next month. I can’t imagine he’s seen much to inspire him.

    It goes back further than that. I was born in 1992 and you can argue the same applies.
    Given the veneration of youth views at present we should definitely listen to you, not many younger.

    Ah, I remember the days of the 2010 GE on PB. 23 years young I was, what a time.
    I was 24 when following the results of the 2005GE on pb.com (and the BBC, and other sources). However, my wife has now booked us a long weekend away from Thursday 12th, and I'm forbidden to use the internet that weekend. She intends for us not to find out the result until the Sunday!
    If it's close we may none of us find out the result until gone Sunday!
  • blueblue said:

    There’s a poll out tonight showing 67% of Britons support freedom of movement across the UK and EU. Which makes me again wonder why we bothered with this pointless Brexit lark in the first place.

    Because for many of us it had sweet FA to do with immigration.
    Lets say we leave with Johnson's deal. How is anyone going to keep the majority of the country happy when the reasons for leave are diverse and sometimes different groups of leavers have completely opposite objectives?

    When the leave coalition breaks down, as it surely will, we will be vulnerable to Corbynism, probably a post Corbyn version, but it will be radical and dangerous.

    Johnson cannot deliver on the promises he has made. At some point relatively soon his lies will catch up with him. When they do things will get very unpleasant. For him, the Tories and, most importantly, for the country. It’s just a matter of when.

    Indeed. Those who are cheering on a Tory majority to stop Corbyn are making a long term error imo. The best way to stop Corbynism is for him to be nominally in charge of a shit situation now, but constrained by the SNP and LD.

    A Tory majority has a far greater chance of leading to eventual real Corbynism, particularly as the age and home ownership demographics will be further against the Tories in 5 years time.
    One doesn't win by losing - look at the Labour Cabinet of 1979, some of whom thought Labour would soon return to power refreshed by a brief spell in opposition...
    I think in general terms you are probably right, but this is different because the leave coalition is not sustainable. How do you keep people who want Singapore on Thames with high levels of immigration, low workers rights, low taxes on board with leave voters in the Midlands, South West and the North who thought they had voted for less immigration and are being promised high government spending?

    It will inevitably fall apart.
  • glw said:

    kle4 said:

    glw said:

    humbugger said:

    Good evening all.

    It's unlikely that your relentless negativity about life in Britain has inspired him. He's not had to storm the beaches of Normandy, not lived through mass poverty or unemployment and technology has created opportunities for him that were unimaginable even in 1997. If annual economic growth of 2% is as bad as it gets he's a lucky, lucky man.

    ++

    I genuinely believe that there has never been a better time to be alive. If people think 2019 is a bit shit they should read some history books.
    It's a good time to be alive generally, to be sure, and a lot of us could stand to be a great deal less glum about a great many things, but there are elements in the UK specifically where things are not as good as they were, and relentlessly negative atmospheres do not appear out of the aether, they feed on something real.
    Sure, but I'd take the aggregated negatives of today over any other point in the past.
    Watch this. To be honest, Remain should run this as Public Information Film. The main info is about 5 mins in


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCm9Ng0bbEQ
    Having recently.read his book on this, what is interesting is if you agree with his central thesis and his proposed idea of how we should be moving forward, none of the options in the GE match them.
  • blueblue said:

    There’s a poll out tonight showing 67% of Britons support freedom of movement across the UK and EU. Which makes me again wonder why we bothered with this pointless Brexit lark in the first place.

    Because for many of us it had sweet FA to do with immigration.
    Lets say we leave with Johnson's deal. How is anyone going to keep the majority of the country happy when the reasons for leave are diverse and sometimes different groups of leavers have completely opposite objectives?

    When the leave coalition breaks down, as it surely will, we will be vulnerable to Corbynism, probably a post Corbyn version, but it will be radical and dangerous.

    Johnson cannot deliver on the promises he has made. At some point relatively soon his lies will catch up with him. When they do things will get very unpleasant. For him, the Tories and, most importantly, for the country. It’s just a matter of when.

    Indeed. Those who are cheering on a Tory majority to stop Corbyn are making a long term error imo. The best way to stop Corbynism is for him to be nominally in charge of a shit situation now, but constrained by the SNP and LD.

    A Tory majority has a far greater chance of leading to eventual real Corbynism, particularly as the age and home ownership demographics will be further against the Tories in 5 years time.
    One doesn't win by losing - look at the Labour Cabinet of 1979, some of whom thought Labour would soon return to power refreshed by a brief spell in opposition...
    Au contraire... it is an accepted maxim of British politics that "Oppositions do not win elections, govt.s lose them"

    Corbyn wins by Johnson losing.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875

    blueblue said:

    There’s a poll out tonight showing 67% of Britons support freedom of movement across the UK and EU. Which makes me again wonder why we bothered with this pointless Brexit lark in the first place.

    Because for many of us it had sweet FA to do with immigration.
    Lets say we leave with Johnson's deal. How is anyone going to keep the majority of the country happy when the reasons for leave are diverse and sometimes different groups of leavers have completely opposite objectives?

    When the leave coalition breaks down, as it surely will, we will be vulnerable to Corbynism, probably a post Corbyn version, but it will be radical and dangerous.

    Johnson cannot deliver on the promises he has made. At some point relatively soon his lies will catch up with him. When they do things will get very unpleasant. For him, the Tories and, most importantly, for the country. It’s just a matter of when.

    Indeed. Those who are cheering on a Tory majority to stop Corbyn are making a long term error imo. The best way to stop Corbynism is for him to be nominally in charge of a shit situation now, but constrained by the SNP and LD.

    A Tory majority has a far greater chance of leading to eventual real Corbynism, particularly as the age and home ownership demographics will be further against the Tories in 5 years time.
    One doesn't win by losing - look at the Labour Cabinet of 1979, some of whom thought Labour would soon return to power refreshed by a brief spell in opposition...
    Au contraire... it is an accepted maxim of British politics that "Oppositions do not win elections, govt.s lose them"

    Corbyn wins by Johnson losing.
    Which is why the Tories have to win :smile:
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    The Conservative Party is in a bleak state
    https://twitter.com/SayeedaWarsi/status/1194367239727828994

    Warsi hates us atheists!
    Click through to the article and you'll see the important story in there is racist Conservative councillors.
    I did deliberately choose to post the Warsi tweet rather than just the Guardian link, though, entirely to annoy you.
    And I post this just to annoy you:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-17021831
    "Britain is under threat from a rising tide of "militant secularisation", a cabinet minister [ie. Warsi] has warned."
    The tory party may be full of racists, but at least there are no homophobes:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2005/apr/27/uk.conservatives1
    ""I will campaign strongly for an end to sex education at seven years and the promotion of homosexuality that undermines family life."
  • glw said:

    kle4 said:

    glw said:

    humbugger said:

    Good evening all.

    It's unlikely that your relentless negativity about life in Britain has inspired him. He's not had to storm the beaches of Normandy, not lived through mass poverty or unemployment and technology has created opportunities for him that were unimaginable even in 1997. If annual economic growth of 2% is as bad as it gets he's a lucky, lucky man.

    ++

    I genuinely believe that there has never been a better time to be alive. If people think 2019 is a bit shit they should read some history books.
    It's a good time to be alive generally, to be sure, and a lot of us could stand to be a great deal less glum about a great many things, but there are elements in the UK specifically where things are not as good as they were, and relentlessly negative atmospheres do not appear out of the aether, they feed on something real.
    Sure, but I'd take the aggregated negatives of today over any other point in the past.
    Watch this. To be honest, Remain should run this as Public Information Film. The main info is about 5 mins in


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCm9Ng0bbEQ
    Having recently.read his book on this, what is interesting is if you agree with his central thesis and his proposed idea of how we should be moving forward, none of the options in the GE match them.
    Politicians are not noted for being forward looking ;)
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited November 2019
    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    The Conservative Party is in a bleak state
    https://twitter.com/SayeedaWarsi/status/1194367239727828994

    As a general observation, if the electorate at large really cared about the welfare and rights of minorities then Labour would already have sunk under the anti-Semitism scandal.

    They don't.
    Oh look. First reply is about Labour. My my, I didn't expect that.
    Of course it is. Labour are worse and I'm less than fond of them anyway.

    But it is also, genuinely, a general observation. The bulk of voters only care about the rights of minorities if they are either members of said minorities themselves, or have family or close friends who belong to them. Indeed, Mrs Thatcher's infamous observation about there being "no such thing as society" contains an essential kernel of truth: it's why elections always come down to economics, just as the Brexit referendum did. The sovereignty movement would never have got within a thousand miles of forcing a referendum in the first place, let alone winning it, without the nexus of related discontents over low pay, the mass immigration of cheap labour and the scant supply of overpriced housing that drove so many people to vote for change.

    This problem applies to ethnic minorities, sexual minorities, but especially to religious minorities, because they are proportionately more likely to self-segregate and are therefore that much easier to "other".

    The anti-Semitism allegations have done little damage to Labour, and the Islamophobia allegations will do even less to the Conservatives (because the Labour Left is riddled from top to bottom with Israel-Palestine obsessives, whereas the Conservatives' problems appear less widespread and to exist predominantly at a lower level.) Thus the two parties ought only really to suffer amongst the slighted communities themselves - except that there are too few Jews to really count in more than one or two constituencies, and the bulk of Muslims traditionally back Labour regardless.

    None of this is either to excuse the parties involved nor to say that the allegations of discrimination that have been made, and in many cases proven, should not matter, because they should. It's just that, from a purely electoral, as opposed to a moral, point of view, they don't.
  • Mr Stop Brexit is going to be running for, you guessed it, the Lib Dems.

    Steve Bray, whose incessant shouting has providing riveting background music to many a TV interview will be running for the Remainer party in the Cynon Valley, Wales.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,838

    Cookie said:

    One of my junior team members turned 21 today. I reflected on his historical experience. He was born in 1997. He would have no memory of September 11. He would have been in his last year of primary school when the credit crunch hit.

    He would have no memory of any time of anything other than at best anaemic economic growth. The idea of a long term growth rate of 2% would sound ridiculous. His Britain has been one of permanent stagnation.

    He will have the opportunity to vote in a second general election next month. I can’t imagine he’s seen much to inspire him.

    This isn't just the UK, though, is it? By western standards, the UK's done ok during his lifetime. It's the west as a whole. He has the misfortune to be born in a period when globalisation is raising billions in the former third world out of poverty at the expense of anaemic growth in most of the west (that part without significant mineral wealth, at least) and the good fortune to be alive in one of the richest countries in the world in a time of unprecedented plenty.
    PB’s affluent reactionaries are getting all Four Yorkshiremen. But Britain is now declining relative to Europe and the USA.
    Alastair, you're a well-heeled city lawyer who is earnestly wishing he could turn the clock back to some time in the early twenty-first century before all these beastly people who don't agree with you came along - I'm puzzled you're calling me an affluent reactionary. I'm a mid-level office drone from Manchester. I just recognise that things in the UK in the twenty first century are pretty nice, all things considered. Come on fella; cheer up - give us a smile!
  • https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-17021831
    "Britain is under threat from a rising tide of "militant secularisation", a cabinet minister [ie. Warsi] has warned."

    Good.

    Religion is an abomination unto Nuggan... ;)
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912

    Mr Stop Brexit is going to be running for, you guessed it, the Lib Dems.

    Steve Bray, whose incessant shouting has providing riveting background music to many a TV interview will be running for the Remainer party in the Cynon Valley, Wales.

    There must be quite a few journalists who would volunteer to give him a grilling if the opportunity arises.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    So far atleast, Labour are not really closing the gap on the tories.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    There’s a poll out tonight showing 67% of Britons support freedom of movement across the UK and EU. Which makes me again wonder why we bothered with this pointless Brexit lark in the first place.

    Because for many of us Leave voters it has nothing to do with immigration...? You lot like to suggest most of us voted on immigration grounds and you won’t hear anything else.
    So why?
    Is it okay at this point for me to say immigration does put a strain on public services?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Hoping this is the right place to ask: anyone know a site with downloadable list of recent polls? I've been scraping them but it broke, and can't be bothered doing it manually :-)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited November 2019
    glw said:

    Mr Stop Brexit is going to be running for, you guessed it, the Lib Dems.

    Steve Bray, whose incessant shouting has providing riveting background music to many a TV interview will be running for the Remainer party in the Cynon Valley, Wales.

    There must be quite a few journalists who would volunteer to give him a grilling if the opportunity arises.
    And the rest of them will want to lock him in a sound proof cupboard....
  • Noo said:

    Noo said:

    The Conservative Party is in a bleak state
    https://twitter.com/SayeedaWarsi/status/1194367239727828994

    As a general observation, if the electorate at large really cared about the welfare and rights of minorities then Labour would already have sunk under the anti-Semitism scandal.

    They don't.
    Oh look. First reply is about Labour. My my, I didn't expect that.
    Of course it is. Labour are worse and I'm less than fond of them anyway.

    But it is also, genuinely, a general observation. The bulk of voters only care about the rights of minorities if they are either members of said minorities themselves, or have family or close friends who belong to them. Indeed, Mrs Thatcher's infamous observation about there being "no such thing as society" contains an essential kernel of truth: it's why elections always come down to economics, just as the Brexit referendum did. The sovereignty movement would never have got within a thousand miles of forcing a referendum in the first place, let alone winning it, without the nexus of related discontents over low pay, the mass immigration of cheap labour and the scant supply of overpriced housing that drove so many people to vote for change.

    This problem applies to ethnic minorities, sexual minorities, but especially to religious minorities, because they are proportionately more likely to self-segregate and are therefore that much easier to "other".

    The anti-Semitism allegations have done little damage to Labour, and the Islamophobia allegations will do even less to the Conservatives (because the Labour Left is riddled from top to bottom with Israel-Palestine obsessives, whereas the Conservatives' problems appear less widespread and to exist predominantly at a lower level.) Thus the two parties ought only really to suffer amongst the slighted communities themselves - except that there are too few Jews to really count in more than one or two constituencies, and the bulk of Muslims traditionally back Labour regardless.

    None of this is either to excuse the parties involved nor to say that the allegations of discrimination that have been made, and in many cases proven, should not matter, because they should. It's just that, from a purely electoral, as opposed to a moral, point of view, they don't.
    I think you are mostly right. The public dont like divided parties though and the Labour splits are obvious of which anti semitism and its handling is one of the drivers. It has also made the Corbyn "gentler style of politics", which could have had some traction, impossible to sell outside his core support.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875

    blueblue said:

    There’s a poll out tonight showing 67% of Britons support freedom of movement across the UK and EU. Which makes me again wonder why we bothered with this pointless Brexit lark in the first place.

    Because for many of us it had sweet FA to do with immigration.
    Lets say we leave with Johnson's deal. How is anyone going to keep the majority of the country happy when the reasons for leave are diverse and sometimes different groups of leavers have completely opposite objectives?

    When the leave coalition breaks down, as it surely will, we will be vulnerable to Corbynism, probably a post Corbyn version, but it will be radical and dangerous.

    Johnson cannot deliver on the promises he has made. At some point relatively soon his lies will catch up with him. When they do things will get very unpleasant. For him, the Tories and, most importantly, for the country. It’s just a matter of when.

    Indeed. Those who are cheering on a Tory majority to stop Corbyn are making a long term error imo. The best way to stop Corbynism is for him to be nominally in charge of a shit situation now, but constrained by the SNP and LD.

    A Tory majority has a far greater chance of leading to eventual real Corbynism, particularly as the age and home ownership demographics will be further against the Tories in 5 years time.
    One doesn't win by losing - look at the Labour Cabinet of 1979, some of whom thought Labour would soon return to power refreshed by a brief spell in opposition...
    I think in general terms you are probably right, but this is different because the leave coalition is not sustainable. How do you keep people who want Singapore on Thames with high levels of immigration, low workers rights, low taxes on board with leave voters in the Midlands, South West and the North who thought they had voted for less immigration and are being promised high government spending?

    It will inevitably fall apart.
    As Keynes said, 'In the long run, we are all dead'. I'd rather be in power now and try to shape the course of events, rather than deliberately let ourselves lose for fear of possible future defeats.
  • glw said:

    Mr Stop Brexit is going to be running for, you guessed it, the Lib Dems.

    Steve Bray, whose incessant shouting has providing riveting background music to many a TV interview will be running for the Remainer party in the Cynon Valley, Wales.

    There must be quite a few journalists who would volunteer to give him a grilling if the opportunity arises.
    Nobody will know who he is as his real name is Dave Allan which has to go on the ballot paper.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Pulpstar said:

    One of my junior team members turned 21 today. I reflected on his historical experience. He was born in 1997. He would have no memory of September 11. He would have been in his last year of primary school when the credit crunch hit.

    He would have no memory of any time of anything other than at best anaemic economic growth. The idea of a long term growth rate of 2% would sound ridiculous. His Britain has been one of permanent stagnation.

    He will have the opportunity to vote in a second general election next month. I can’t imagine he’s seen much to inspire him.

    Lol You've just made everyone here feel errm... old :D
    I saw no reason why I should suffer alone.

    EDIT I’m also a year out. He’d have been born in 1998. Scary.
    Same age as my youngest.

    Fortunately, he has a very wise parent to advise him. 😇
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    nunu2 said:

    So far atleast, Labour are not really closing the gap on the tories.

    Thanks nunu. I was beginning to fear this gap is closing far more quickly this stage of the campaign compared to last time.
  • Mr Stop Brexit is going to be running for, you guessed it, the Lib Dems.

    Steve Bray, whose incessant shouting has providing riveting background music to many a TV interview will be running for the Remainer party in the Cynon Valley, Wales.

    If one of the newspapers doesn't get a bloke with a megaphone to follow him around, bellowing in his ear, then this country really is going to the dogs.

    Either that, or a televised square go with Simon McCoy or Huw Edwards.
  • Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    One of my junior team members turned 21 today. I reflected on his historical experience. He was born in 1997. He would have no memory of September 11. He would have been in his last year of primary school when the credit crunch hit.

    He would have no memory of any time of anything other than at best anaemic economic growth. The idea of a long term growth rate of 2% would sound ridiculous. His Britain has been one of permanent stagnation.

    He will have the opportunity to vote in a second general election next month. I can’t imagine he’s seen much to inspire him.

    This isn't just the UK, though, is it? By western standards, the UK's done ok during his lifetime. It's the west as a whole. He has the misfortune to be born in a period when globalisation is raising billions in the former third world out of poverty at the expense of anaemic growth in most of the west (that part without significant mineral wealth, at least) and the good fortune to be alive in one of the richest countries in the world in a time of unprecedented plenty.
    PB’s affluent reactionaries are getting all Four Yorkshiremen. But Britain is now declining relative to Europe and the USA.
    Alastair, you're a well-heeled city lawyer who is earnestly wishing he could turn the clock back to some time in the early twenty-first century before all these beastly people who don't agree with you came along - I'm puzzled you're calling me an affluent reactionary. I'm a mid-level office drone from Manchester. I just recognise that things in the UK in the twenty first century are pretty nice, all things considered. Come on fella; cheer up - give us a smile!
    The country is going slowly to shit largely because retired Leavers decided to settle for loafing off the younger generation, who will see them out nicely. The country is declining relative to its peers and the fact of Brexit on the terms that Boris Johnson was dictated by the EU will only accelerate that. It is a divided country that is likely to split up in the near future.

    Politically there isn’t much to smile about.
  • Standard Richard Burgon road crash on Newsnight. How desperate must Labour be to keep putting him out in the media.
  • blueblue said:

    blueblue said:

    There’s a poll out tonight showing 67% of Britons support freedom of movement across the UK and EU. Which makes me again wonder why we bothered with this pointless Brexit lark in the first place.

    Because for many of us it had sweet FA to do with immigration.
    Lets say we leave with Johnson's deal. How is anyone going to keep the majority of the country happy when the reasons for leave are diverse and sometimes different groups of leavers have completely opposite objectives?

    When the leave coalition breaks down, as it surely will, we will be vulnerable to Corbynism, probably a post Corbyn version, but it will be radical and dangerous.

    Johnson cannot deliver on the promises he has made. At some point relatively soon his lies will catch up with him. When they do things will get very unpleasant. For him, the Tories and, most importantly, for the country. It’s just a matter of when.

    Indeed. Those who are cheering on a Tory majority to stop Corbyn are making a long term error imo. The best way to stop Corbynism is for him to be nominally in charge of a shit situation now, but constrained by the SNP and LD.

    A Tory majority has a far greater chance of leading to eventual real Corbynism, particularly as the age and home ownership demographics will be further against the Tories in 5 years time.
    One doesn't win by losing - look at the Labour Cabinet of 1979, some of whom thought Labour would soon return to power refreshed by a brief spell in opposition...
    I think in general terms you are probably right, but this is different because the leave coalition is not sustainable. How do you keep people who want Singapore on Thames with high levels of immigration, low workers rights, low taxes on board with leave voters in the Midlands, South West and the North who thought they had voted for less immigration and are being promised high government spending?

    It will inevitably fall apart.
    As Keynes said, 'In the long run, we are all dead'. I'd rather be in power now and try to shape the course of events, rather than deliberately let ourselves lose for fear of possible future defeats.
    Presumably you have a preference?

    Either Singapore on Thames with high levels of immigration, low workers rights, low taxes or less immigration and high government spending.

    How do you even know which your team is going for given they are promising both and led by a liar? Optimism is a wonderful thing but can be dangerous when dealing with a charlatan.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156

    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    The Conservative Party is in a bleak state
    https://twitter.com/SayeedaWarsi/status/1194367239727828994

    As a general observation, if the electorate at large really cared about the welfare and rights of minorities then Labour would already have sunk under the anti-Semitism scandal.

    They don't.
    Oh look. First reply is about Labour. My my, I didn't expect that.
    Of course it is. Labour are worse and I'm less than fond of them anyway.

    But it is also, genuinely, a general observation. The bulk of voters only care about the rights of minorities if they are either members of said minorities themselves, or have family or close friends who belong to them. Indeed, Mrs Thatcher's infamous observation about there being "no such thing as society" contains an essential kernel of truth: it's why elections always come down to economics, just as the Brexit referendum did. The sovereignty movement would never have got within a thousand miles of forcing a referendum in the first place, let alone winning it, without the nexus of related discontents over low pay, the mass immigration of cheap labour and the scant supply of overpriced housing that drove so many people to vote for change.

    This problem applies to ethnic minorities, sexual minorities, but especially to religious minorities, because they are proportionately more likely to self-segregate and are therefore that much easier to "other".

    The anti-Semitism allegations have done little damage to Labour, and the Islamophobia allegations will do even less to the Conservatives (because the Labour Left is riddled from top to bottom with Israel-Palestine obsessives, whereas the Conservatives' problems appear less widespread and to exist predominantly at a lower level.) Thus the two parties ought only really to suffer amongst the slighted communities themselves - except that there are too few Jews to really count in more than one or two constituencies, and the bulk of Muslims traditionally back Labour regardless.

    None of this is either to excuse the parties involved nor to say that the allegations of discrimination that have been made, and in many cases proven, should not matter, because they should. It's just that, from a purely electoral, as opposed to a moral, point of view, they don't.
    I think you are mostly right. The public dont like divided parties though and the Labour splits are obvious of which anti semitism and its handling is one of the drivers. It has also made the Corbyn "gentler style of politics", which could have had some traction, impossible to sell outside his core support.
    Labour was more split last time and 40% of the public backed them.
  • Banterman said:

    Standard Richard Burgon road crash on Newsnight. How desperate must Labour be to keep putting him out in the media.

    Because the rest of shadow front bench arent much better.
  • kle4 said:

    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    The Conservative Party is in a bleak state
    https://twitter.com/SayeedaWarsi/status/1194367239727828994

    They don't.
    Oh look. First reply is about Labour. My my, I didn't expect that.
    Of course it is. Labour are worse and I'm less than fond of them anyway.

    But it is also, genuinely, a general observation. The bulk of voters only care about the rights of minorities if they are either members of said minorities themselves, or have family or close friends who belong to them. Indeed, Mrs Thatcher's infamous observation about there being "no such thing as society" contains an essential kernel of truth: it's why elections always come down to economics, just as the Brexit referendum did. The sovereignty movement would never have got within a thousand miles of forcing a referendum in the first place, let alone winning it, without the nexus of related discontents over low pay, the mass immigration of cheap labour and the scant supply of overpriced housing that drove so many people to vote for change.

    This problem applies to ethnic minorities, sexual minorities, but especially to religious minorities, because they are proportionately more likely to self-segregate and are therefore that much easier to "other".

    The anti-Semitism allegations have done little damage to Labour, and the Islamophobia allegations will do even less to the Conservatives (because the Labour Left is riddled from top to bottom with Israel-Palestine obsessives, whereas the Conservatives' problems appear less widespread and to exist predominantly at a lower level.) Thus the two parties ought only really to suffer amongst the slighted communities themselves - except that there are too few Jews to really count in more than one or two constituencies, and the bulk of Muslims traditionally back Labour regardless.

    None of this is either to excuse the parties involved nor to say that the allegations of discrimination that have been made, and in many cases proven, should not matter, because they should. It's just that, from a purely electoral, as opposed to a moral, point of view, they don't.
    I think you are mostly right. The public dont like divided parties though and the Labour splits are obvious of which anti semitism and its handling is one of the drivers. It has also made the Corbyn "gentler style of politics", which could have had some traction, impossible to sell outside his core support.
    Labour was more split last time and 40% of the public backed them.
    No. 40% either backed them or backed against the government.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,838

    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    The Conservative Party is in a bleak state
    https://twitter.com/SayeedaWarsi/status/1194367239727828994

    Warsi hates us atheists!
    Click through to the article and you'll see the important story in there is racist Conservative councillors.
    I did deliberately choose to post the Warsi tweet rather than just the Guardian link, though, entirely to annoy you.
    And I post this just to annoy you:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-17021831
    "Britain is under threat from a rising tide of "militant secularisation", a cabinet minister [ie. Warsi] has warned."
    Warsi has spent so long trying to claim some special treatment for religion that I switch off when I see her name attached to a story. Public life should be getting more secular, not less.
    Now, we should always be wary of dismissing the story because we distrust the messenger, so I am very much not dismissing Noo's story. I have nothing against Noo. But my hackles rise when I see Warsi's name.
  • Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    One of my junior team members turned 21 today. I reflected on his historical experience. He was born in 1997. He would have no memory of September 11. He would have been in his last year of primary school when the credit crunch hit.

    He would have no memory of any time of anything other than at best anaemic economic growth. The idea of a long term growth rate of 2% would sound ridiculous. His Britain has been one of permanent stagnation.

    He will have the opportunity to vote in a second general election next month. I can’t imagine he’s seen much to inspire him.

    This isn't just the UK, though, is it? By western standards, the UK's done ok during his lifetime. It's the west as a whole. He has the misfortune to be born in a period when globalisation is raising billions in the former third world out of poverty at the expense of anaemic growth in most of the west (that part without significant mineral wealth, at least) and the good fortune to be alive in one of the richest countries in the world in a time of unprecedented plenty.
    PB’s affluent reactionaries are getting all Four Yorkshiremen. But Britain is now declining relative to Europe and the USA.
    Alastair, you're a well-heeled city lawyer who is earnestly wishing he could turn the clock back to some time in the early twenty-first century before all these beastly people who don't agree with you came along - I'm puzzled you're calling me an affluent reactionary. I'm a mid-level office drone from Manchester. I just recognise that things in the UK in the twenty first century are pretty nice, all things considered. Come on fella; cheer up - give us a smile!
    The country is going slowly to shit largely because retired Leavers decided to settle for loafing off the younger generation, who will see them out nicely. The country is declining relative to its peers and the fact of Brexit on the terms that Boris Johnson was dictated by the EU will only accelerate that. It is a divided country that is likely to split up in the near future.

    Politically there isn’t much to smile about.
    You sound like a right gammon leaver with all your country has gone to the dogs rhetoric.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    edited November 2019

    kle4 said:

    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    The Conservative Party is in a bleak state
    https://twitter.com/SayeedaWarsi/status/1194367239727828994

    They don't.
    Oh look. First reply is about Labour. My my, I didn't expect that.
    Of course it is. Labour are worse and I'm less than fond of them anyway.

    But it is also, genuinely, a general observation. The bulk of voters only care about the rights of minorities if they are either members of said minorities themselves, or have family or close friends who belong to them. Indeed, Mrs Thatcher's infamous observation about there being "no such thing as society" contains an essential kernel of truth: it's why elections always come down to economics, just as the Brexit referendum did. The sovereignty movement would never have got within a thousand miles of forcing a referendum in the first place, let alone winning it, without the nexus of related discontents over low pay, the mass immigration of cheap labour and the scant supply of overpriced housing that drove so many people to vote for change.

    This problem applies to ethnic minorities, sexual minorities, but especially to religious minorities, because they are proportionately more likely to self-segregate and are therefore that much easier to "other".

    The anti-Semitism allegations have done little damage to Labour, and the Islamophobia allegations will do even less to the Conservatives (because the Labour Left is riddled from top to bottom with Israel-Palestine obsessives, whereas the Conservatives' problems appear less widespread and to exist predominantly at a lower level.) Thus the two parties ought only really to suffer amongst the slighted communities themselves - except that there are too few Jews to really count in more than one or two constituencies, and the bulk of Muslims traditionally back Labour regardless.

    None of this is either to excuse the parties involved nor to say that the allegations of discrimination that have been made, and in many cases proven, should not matter, because they should. y don't.
    I think you are mostly right. The public dont like divided parties though and the Labour splits are obvious of which anti semitism and its handling is one of the drivers. It has also made the Corbyn "gentler style of politics", which could have had some traction, impossible to sell outside his core support.
    Labour was more split last time and 40% of the public backed them.
    No. 40% either backed them or backed against the government.
    It counts the same. Their pull factors are less now, its whether the Tories' push factors are higher.
  • Banterman said:

    Standard Richard Burgon road crash on Newsnight. How desperate must Labour be to keep putting him out in the media.

    He is absolutely gormless, but always willing to get his face on telly.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited November 2019

    Banterman said:

    Standard Richard Burgon road crash on Newsnight. How desperate must Labour be to keep putting him out in the media.

    He is absolutely gormless, but always willing to get his face on telly.
    To think in only a few weeks he could actually be a minister....i know the likes of Grayling werent werent exactly smart, but there is dense and light bending around you dense.
  • franklynfranklyn Posts: 320
    "Try anything once except Morris Dancing and incest", a quotation variously attributed to Noel Coward, Sir Thomas Beecham and Arnold Bax; so if you have never voted Lib Dem, give it a go on 12th December.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    egg said:

    nunu2 said:

    So far atleast, Labour are not really closing the gap on the tories.

    Thanks nunu. I was beginning to fear this gap is closing far more quickly this stage of the campaign compared to last time.
    I mean it isnt being closed.

    For every poll that comes out showing the tory lead narrowing, theres another one showing it going up a point or two.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213

    Banterman said:

    Standard Richard Burgon road crash on Newsnight. How desperate must Labour be to keep putting him out in the media.

    Because the rest of shadow front bench arent much better.
    I suppose Labour feel they need to keep up with the Tories & Kwasi Kwarteng though.
  • Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    One of my junior team members turned 21 today. I reflected on his historical experience. He was born in 1997. He would have no memory of September 11. He would have been in his last year of primary school when the credit crunch hit.

    He would have no memory of any time of anything other than at best anaemic economic growth. The idea of a long term growth rate of 2% would sound ridiculous. His Britain has been one of permanent stagnation.

    He will have the opportunity to vote in a second general election next month. I can’t imagine he’s seen much to inspire him.

    This isn't just the UK, though, is it? By western standards, the UK's done ok during his lifetime. It's the west as a whole. He has the misfortune to be born in a period when globalisation is raising billions in the former third world out of poverty at the expense of anaemic growth in most of the west (that part without significant mineral wealth, at least) and the good fortune to be alive in one of the richest countries in the world in a time of unprecedented plenty.
    PB’s affluent reactionaries are getting all Four Yorkshiremen. But Britain is now declining relative to Europe and the USA.
    Alastair, you're a well-heeled city lawyer who is earnestly wishing he could turn the clock back to some time in the early twenty-first century before all these beastly people who don't agree with you came along - I'm puzzled you're calling me an affluent reactionary. I'm a mid-level office drone from Manchester. I just recognise that things in the UK in the twenty first century are pretty nice, all things considered. Come on fella; cheer up - give us a smile!
    The country is going slowly to shit largely because retired Leavers decided to settle for loafing off the younger generation, who will see them out nicely. The country is declining relative to its peers and the fact of Brexit on the terms that Boris Johnson was dictated by the EU will only accelerate that. It is a divided country that is likely to split up in the near future.

    Politically there isn’t much to smile about.
    You sound like a right gammon leaver with all your country has gone to the dogs rhetoric.
    Unlike gammon Leavers, I don’t think there’s an easy solution like suspending democracy or bringing back the birch. It’s a terrible mess and it’s only going to get worse in the foreseeable future.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875

    blueblue said:

    blueblue said:

    There’s a poll out tonight showing 67% of Britons support freedom of movement across the UK and EU. Which makes me again wonder why we bothered with this pointless Brexit lark in the first place.

    Because for many of us it had sweet FA to do with immigration.
    How is anyone going to keep the majority of the country happy when the reasons for leave are diverse and sometimes different groups of leavers have completely opposite objectives?

    When the leave coalition breaks down, as it surely will, we will be vulnerable to Corbynism but it will be radical and dangerous.

    Johnson cannot deliver on the promises he has made. At some point relatively soon his lies will catch up with him. When they do things will get very unpleasant. For him, the Tories and, most importantly, for the country. It’s just a matter of when.

    Indeed. Those who are cheering on a Tory majority to stop Corbyn are making a long term error imo. The best way to stop Corbynism is for him to be nominally in charge of a shit situation now, but constrained by the SNP and LD.

    A Tory majority has a far greater chance of leading to eventual real Corbynism, particularly as the age and home ownership demographics will be further against the Tories in 5 years time.
    One doesn't win by losing - look at the Labour Cabinet of 1979, some of whom thought Labour would soon return to power refreshed by a brief spell in opposition...
    It will inevitably fall apart.
    As Keynes said, 'In the long run, we are all dead'. I'd rather be in power now and try to shape the course of events, rather than deliberately let ourselves lose for fear of possible future defeats.
    Presumably you have a preference?

    Either Singapore on Thames with high levels of immigration, low workers rights, low taxes or less immigration and high government spending.

    How do you even know which your team is going for given they are promising both and led by a liar? Optimism is a wonderful thing but can be dangerous when dealing with a charlatan.
    I'm more of the Singapore-on-Thames and low taxes type, and to judge by his pre-Brexit record, I'm pretty sure Boris is too. I hear you, but frankly the US Republican Party has managed to ride an even more mismatched coalition for decades with far less favourable demographics than the Tories possess. You just need to do enough to please the disparate elements of your base, and if it gets a bit messy, well, that's politics!
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    franklyn said:

    "Try anything once except Morris Dancing and incest", a quotation variously attributed to Noel Coward, Sir Thomas Beecham and Arnold Bax; so if you have never voted Lib Dem, give it a go on 12th December.

    I feel we need some in-depth polling data on these options!
  • I haven't seen these. But I know which one worked.

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1194387433061855232
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    glw said:

    kle4 said:

    glw said:

    humbugger said:

    Good evening all.

    It's unlikely that your relentless negativity about life in Britain has inspired him. He's not had to storm the beaches of Normandy, not lived through mass poverty or unemployment and technology has created opportunities for him that were unimaginable even in 1997. If annual economic growth of 2% is as bad as it gets he's a lucky, lucky man.

    ++

    I genuinely believe that there has never been a better time to be alive. If people think 2019 is a bit shit they should read some history books.
    It's a good time to be alive generally, to be sure, and a lot of us could stand to be a great deal less glum about a great many things, but there are elements in the UK specifically where things are not as good as they were, and relentlessly negative atmospheres do not appear out of the aether, they feed on something real.
    Sure, but I'd take the aggregated negatives of today over any other point in the past.
    Watch this. To be honest, Remain should run this as Public Information Film. The main info is about 5 mins in


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCm9Ng0bbEQ
    That's a great video. Thanks for sharing it.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    HYUFD said:

    blueblue said:

    humbugger said:

    blueblue said:

    Didn't BJO say something a little earlier along the lines of 'Wait for Comres'? *innocent face* :wink:
    The fieldwork is before the Farage announcement. With BXP on 9% this looks a solid poll for the Tories.
    I know - I was just doing a bit of gentle ribbing of BJO, who was presumably expecting a Survation-like result.
    Even Survation had a 6% Tory lead
    Can Labour actually close the gap though, in polls where libdem and green are as high as that, other than the PV we get Friday 13th? There’s Labour people being polled for sure who are saying libdem if answer honestly because they know what they need to do in that constituency, likewise greens, who could mirroring this years locals, poll extremely well in those places where labour are nowhere, but collapse in close lab con contests, and likewise the libdems with just 14% have a very good night against Tories thanks to those Labour tacky votes.

    I would be very surprised if polls towards end of campaign showed labour 5 or less in arrears, but not shocked if it became 3 or 4 behind on the night.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Nice ComRes. My new favourite pollster.

    :)
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    There was some pressure on Corbyn today, in face of the so called Trump pact, stand some of his own candidates down. pro 2nd vote independent was certainly demanding that. Swinson has invited that pressure on herself now with her actions this evening, and got Corbyn off that hook to some degree.

    Maybe Corbyn could respond to Swindon’s poker by standing his candidates down in Wokingham and Somerset North East, and leave Jo deeper in the smelly stuff?

    How is the “put the moggy out” project coming along, any further polls?
  • blueblue said:

    blueblue said:

    blueblue said:

    There’s a poll out tonight showing 67% of Britons support freedom of movement across the UK and EU. Which makes me again wonder why we bothered with this pointless Brexit lark in the first place.

    Because for many of us it had sweet FA to do with immigration.
    Indeed. Those who are cheering on a Tory majority to stop Corbyn are making a long term error imo. The best way to stop Corbynism is for him to be nominally in charge of a shit situation now, but constrained by the SNP and LD.

    A Tory majority has a far greater chance of leading to eventual real Corbynism, particularly as the age and home ownership demographics will be further against the Tories in 5 years time.
    One doesn't win by losing - look at the Labour Cabinet of 1979, some of whom thought Labour would soon return to power refreshed by a brief spell in opposition...
    It will inevitably fall apart.
    As Keynes said, 'In the long run, we are all dead'. I'd rather be in power now and try to shape the course of events, rather than deliberately let ourselves lose for fear of possible future defeats.
    Presumably you have a preference?

    Either Singapore on Thames with high levels of immigration, low workers rights, low taxes or less immigration and high government spending.

    How do you even know which your team is going for given they are promising both and led by a liar? Optimism is a wonderful thing but can be dangerous when dealing with a charlatan.
    I'm more of the Singapore-on-Thames and low taxes type, and to judge by his pre-Brexit record, I'm pretty sure Boris is too. I hear you, but frankly the US Republican Party has managed to ride an even more mismatched coalition for decades with far less favourable demographics than the Tories possess. You just need to do enough to please the disparate elements of your base, and if it gets a bit messy, well, that's politics!
    Other Tories on here are equally confident Johnson is a social liberal wanting to have an immigration amnesty and higher non EU migration as the home secretary indicated with fast track visas last week.

    How do you think massive government spending increases are consistent with low taxes? We might get low taxes short term by borrowing but sooner or later things get paid for? Or has he found a magic money tree?
  • Noo said:

    glw said:

    kle4 said:

    glw said:

    humbugger said:

    Good evening all.

    It's unlikely that your relentless negativity about life in Britain has inspired him. He's not had to storm the beaches of Normandy, not lived through mass poverty or unemployment and technology has created opportunities for him that were unimaginable even in 1997. If annual economic growth of 2% is as bad as it gets he's a lucky, lucky man.

    ++

    I genuinely believe that there has never been a better time to be alive. If people think 2019 is a bit shit they should read some history books.
    It's a good time to be alive generally, to be sure, and a lot of us could stand to be a great deal less glum about a great many things, but there are elements in the UK specifically where things are not as good as they were, and relentlessly negative atmospheres do not appear out of the aether, they feed on something real.
    Sure, but I'd take the aggregated negatives of today over any other point in the past.
    Watch this. To be honest, Remain should run this as Public Information Film. The main info is about 5 mins in


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCm9Ng0bbEQ
    That's a great video. Thanks for sharing it.
    The book it is based on is called Enlightenment Now. Hans Gosling (sadly now passed) also has some great talks on how the world has got so much better.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156

    I haven't seen these. But I know which one worked.

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1194387433061855232

    Well I'll give bastani credit for watching it.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    nunu2 said:

    egg said:

    nunu2 said:

    So far atleast, Labour are not really closing the gap on the tories.

    Thanks nunu. I was beginning to fear this gap is closing far more quickly this stage of the campaign compared to last time.
    I mean it isnt being closed.

    For every poll that comes out showing the tory lead narrowing, theres another one showing it going up a point or two.
    People tend to only notice the polls that reinforce their opinions. I still think the Tories are going to hit a wall! :wink:
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    I think you are mostly right. The public dont like divided parties though and the Labour splits are obvious of which anti semitism and its handling is one of the drivers. It has also made the Corbyn "gentler style of politics", which could have had some traction, impossible to sell outside his core support.

    I agree, although I think the relatively moderate reduction in Labour support we will see in this election (they aren't going to crash and burn; they could easily finish on 35%) will ultimately be rooted in economics, too.

    Most of the voters who turn their backs on Labour because they think the leadership too extreme won't be doing it explicitly out of disgust at the anti-Semitism problem. All that is for them is part of the negative mood music. They'll be doing it because they fear an extreme Left party will muck up the economy, make them poor and try to steal their stuff. That's all.
  • There’s a poll out tonight showing 67% of Britons support freedom of movement across the UK and EU. Which makes me again wonder why we bothered with this pointless Brexit lark in the first place.

    Because for many of us it had sweet FA to do with immigration.
    Lets say we leave with Johnson's deal. How is anyone going to keep the majority of the country happy when the reasons for leave are diverse and sometimes different groups of leavers have completely opposite objectives?

    When the leave coalition breaks down, as it surely will, we will be vulnerable to Corbynism, probably a post Corbyn version, but it will be radical and dangerous.
    So because you are afraid of a Corbyn Government in the future you think we should vote for a Corbyn Government now? Not really following your logic there.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited November 2019

    nunu2 said:

    egg said:

    nunu2 said:

    So far atleast, Labour are not really closing the gap on the tories.

    Thanks nunu. I was beginning to fear this gap is closing far more quickly this stage of the campaign compared to last time.
    I mean it isnt being closed.

    For every poll that comes out showing the tory lead narrowing, theres another one showing it going up a point or two.
    People tend to only notice the polls that reinforce their opinions. I still think the Tories are going to hit a wall! :wink:
    What the polling trends are showing is despite Corbyn, Labour will easily get 30%. The question that remains is can the Tories get 40%, despite Boris being divisive figure to many. If they only get 35-36% shown by some polls, it is back to silly buggery in the HoC for another 5 years.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One of my junior team members turned 21 today. I reflected on his historical experience. He was born in 1997. He would have no memory of September 11. He would have been in his last year of primary school when the credit crunch hit.

    He would have no memory of any time of anything other than at best anaemic economic growth. The idea of a long term growth rate of 2% would sound ridiculous. His Britain has been one of permanent stagnation.

    He will have the opportunity to vote in a second general election next month. I can’t imagine he’s seen much to inspire him.

    Lol You've just made everyone here feel errm... old :D
    I saw no reason why I should suffer alone.

    EDIT I’m also a year out. He’d have been born in 1998. Scary.
    Same age as my youngest.

    Fortunately, he has a very wise parent to advise him. 😇
    My eldest has turned 31. How did this happen? Where did the time go? My youngest is 16, it seems no time at all since he was learning to walk.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    I haven't seen these. But I know which one worked.

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1194387433061855232

    That Tory PPB was terrible! I wonder why the Tories employ some of these PR advisers as it looks like this campaign is going to be as bad as the 2017 one. The hundreds of thousands or even millions they spend on the advisors would probably create more impact if they used the cash on the ground...
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    nunu2 said:

    egg said:

    nunu2 said:

    So far atleast, Labour are not really closing the gap on the tories.

    Thanks nunu. I was beginning to fear this gap is closing far more quickly this stage of the campaign compared to last time.
    I mean it isnt being closed.

    For every poll that comes out showing the tory lead narrowing, theres another one showing it going up a point or two.
    No we have some excellent people on this site, Sunils Elbow, Barneys Barn Thing etc showing small but clear trend to Labour. What’s disguising it though is very quick collapse in BP vote.

    Is it because the anti semitism thing isn’t really cutting through? The Lib Dem candidate standing aside for labour clearly not bothered by that, nor the green in sadly broke.
  • nunu2 said:

    egg said:

    nunu2 said:

    So far atleast, Labour are not really closing the gap on the tories.

    Thanks nunu. I was beginning to fear this gap is closing far more quickly this stage of the campaign compared to last time.
    I mean it isnt being closed.

    For every poll that comes out showing the tory lead narrowing, theres another one showing it going up a point or two.
    People tend to only notice the polls that reinforce their opinions. I still think the Tories are going to hit a wall! :wink:
    We shall see - next ELBOW due on Sunday :)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    There’s a poll out tonight showing 67% of Britons support freedom of movement across the UK and EU. Which makes me again wonder why we bothered with this pointless Brexit lark in the first place.

    Also makes you wonder how inept the Remain campaign was not to win those people to vote for the EU? On the face of it they should have crushed it 2:1.
    Makes me wonder how people can take such nonsensical findings seriously
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354
    edited November 2019

    nunu2 said:

    egg said:

    nunu2 said:

    So far atleast, Labour are not really closing the gap on the tories.

    Thanks nunu. I was beginning to fear this gap is closing far more quickly this stage of the campaign compared to last time.
    I mean it isnt being closed.

    For every poll that comes out showing the tory lead narrowing, theres another one showing it going up a point or two.
    People tend to only notice the polls that reinforce their opinions. I still think the Tories are going to hit a wall! :wink:
    What the polling trends are showing is despite Corbyn, Labour will easily get 30%. The question that remains is can the Tories get 40%, despite Boris being divisive figure to many. If they only get 35-36% shown by some polls, it is back to silly buggery in the HoC for another 5 years.
    That's about the way I reckon it, Francis. They need to be clear by at least 6% otherwise tactical voting and losses in Scotland will drop them into NOM hell.

    At the moment, they look ok, but there's not a huge margin for error.
  • There’s a poll out tonight showing 67% of Britons support freedom of movement across the UK and EU. Which makes me again wonder why we bothered with this pointless Brexit lark in the first place.

    Because for many of us it had sweet FA to do with immigration.
    Lets say we leave with Johnson's deal. How is anyone going to keep the majority of the country happy when the reasons for leave are diverse and sometimes different groups of leavers have completely opposite objectives?

    When the leave coalition breaks down, as it surely will, we will be vulnerable to Corbynism, probably a post Corbyn version, but it will be radical and dangerous.
    So because you are afraid of a Corbyn Government in the future you think we should vote for a Corbyn Government now? Not really following your logic there.
    Well ideally we would have a better alternative. Whatever realistic government that comes out of this election will fail, as the starting point is a divided country that has been oversold promises.

    Tory government failure gives us the worst of both worlds. Brexit, unprincipled govt by pollsters followed by Corbynism.

    A Corbyn government now would be constrained by SNP and LD, and the failure of Corbyn and Johnson as short term PMs might lead to a return to sanity for both once great parties.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,838

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:



    .
    PB’s affluent reactionaries are getting all Four Yorkshiremen. But Britain is now declining relative to Europe and the USA.
    Alastair, you're a well-heeled city lawyer who is earnestly wishing he could turn the clock back to some time in the early twenty-first century before all these beastly people who don't agree with you came along - I'm puzzled you're calling me an affluent reactionary. I'm a mid-level office drone from Manchester. I just recognise that things in the UK in the twenty first century are pretty nice, all things considered. Come on fella; cheer up - give us a smile!
    The country is going slowly to shit largely because retired Leavers decided to settle for loafing off the younger generation, who will see them out nicely. The country is declining relative to its peers and the fact of Brexit on the terms that Boris Johnson was dictated by the EU will only accelerate that. It is a divided country that is likely to split up in the near future.

    Politically there isn’t much to smile about.
    Britain is not going to shit. Britain faces a period of decline relative to the rest of the world because the third world is catching up, and we should welcome that - but Britain will continue to get richer. Will it split up? NI and Scotland may go their own way, and good luck to them if they do; but it will just be a political decision: they're not about to sail off into the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans respectively. No matter what state they live in, our children will live in a richer, cleaner, safer world. Certain aspects of life will be worse; most will be better.
    Some of our peers will do better, some will do worse. If I had no roots here I would emigrate to NZ - but that is not a view on either country's economic prospects, just a yearning for wide open spaces. But I have family here, so here I remain. And here is pretty good, all things told. Life is good. Most people are nice. We have abundance beyond the dreams of your childhood or mine. We have problems, but they are first world problems, and they are fixable.

    I know you have spent mental energy wishing not only that the government was other than it is but that the opposition was other than it is. I expect most people here have. We can agree that ideally our two main parties would be other than they are. But there is plenty else in life to be cheerful and optimistic about.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    nunu2 said:

    egg said:

    nunu2 said:

    So far atleast, Labour are not really closing the gap on the tories.

    Thanks nunu. I was beginning to fear this gap is closing far more quickly this stage of the campaign compared to last time.
    I mean it isnt being closed.

    For every poll that comes out showing the tory lead narrowing, theres another one showing it going up a point or two.
    People tend to only notice the polls that reinforce their opinions. I still think the Tories are going to hit a wall! :wink:
    What the polling trends are showing is despite Corbyn, Labour will easily get 30%. The question that remains is can the Tories get 40%, despite Boris being divisive figure to many. If they only get 35-36% shown by some polls, it is back to silly buggery in the HoC for another 5 years.
    I have long said I would put 2010 and the 29% Labour achieved as the minimum likely for 2019. Personally, I am shifting over to Labour from LD, not because I approve of Corbyn but because I want to send the Tories a message. I live in a safe Labour seat, so it is unlikely to change the winner. I voted Tory in 2017 but disapprove of Brexit as I think it solves nothing, reduces the rate of economic growth and will lead to even greater schisms in the public opinion.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    I haven't seen these. But I know which one worked.

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1194387433061855232

    One clear winner. A Party broadcast with Thai curry. Solid choice.

    Panang Gai For me
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited November 2019

    nunu2 said:

    egg said:

    nunu2 said:

    So far atleast, Labour are not really closing the gap on the tories.

    Thanks nunu. I was beginning to fear this gap is closing far more quickly this stage of the campaign compared to last time.
    I mean it isnt being closed.

    For every poll that comes out showing the tory lead narrowing, theres another one showing it going up a point or two.
    People tend to only notice the polls that reinforce their opinions. I still think the Tories are going to hit a wall! :wink:
    What the polling trends are showing is despite Corbyn, Labour will easily get 30%. The question that remains is can the Tories get 40%, despite Boris being divisive figure to many. If they only get 35-36% shown by some polls, it is back to silly buggery in the HoC for another 5 years.
    That's about the way I reckon it, Francis. They need to be clear by at least 6% otherwise tactical voting and losses in Scotland will drop them into NOM hell.

    At the moment, they look ok, but there's not a huge margin for error.
    Personally, I don't see the Tories get these 42% type figures we see in some polls. That just seems unlikely. I know May got that, but Boris is more divisive, Brexit has become more divisive, it isn't the Lib Whos anymore.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,838

    There’s a poll out tonight showing 67% of Britons support freedom of movement across the UK and EU. Which makes me again wonder why we bothered with this pointless Brexit lark in the first place.

    Because for many of us it had sweet FA to do with immigration.
    Lets say we leave with Johnson's deal. How is anyone going to keep the majority of the country happy when the reasons for leave are diverse and sometimes different groups of leavers have completely opposite objectives?

    When the leave coalition breaks down, as it surely will, we will be vulnerable to Corbynism, probably a post Corbyn version, but it will be radical and dangerous.
    So because you are afraid of a Corbyn Government in the future you think we should vote for a Corbyn Government now? Not really following your logic there.
    Well ideally we would have a better alternative. Whatever realistic government that comes out of this election will fail, as the starting point is a divided country that has been oversold promises.

    Tory government failure gives us the worst of both worlds. Brexit, unprincipled govt by pollsters followed by Corbynism.

    A Corbyn government now would be constrained by SNP and LD, and the failure of Corbyn and Johnson as short term PMs might lead to a return to sanity for both once great parties.
    The SNP are a single-issue party committed to Scottish independence. Good governance of the rest of the UK is incidental to them. It might happen. But it won't be because it's a particular policy goal of theirs, nor will it be because they will benefit from it electorally.
    I don't bear them any ill-will in this, you understand - they are behaving entirely rationally from their point of view. But it seems unwise to hope that they will ride to England's rescue.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875

    blueblue said:

    blueblue said:

    blueblue said:

    There’s a poll out tonight showing 67% of Britons support freedom of movement across the UK and EU. Which makes me again wonder why we bothered with this pointless Brexit lark in the first place.

    Because for many of us it had sweet FA to do with immigration.
    Indeed. Those who are cheering on a Tory majority to stop Corbyn are making a long term error imo. The best way to stop Corbynism is for him to be nominally in charge of a shit situation now, but constrained by the SNP and LD.

    A Tory majority has a far greater chance of leading to eventual real Corbynism, particularly as the age and home ownership demographics will be further against the Tories in 5 years time.
    One doesn't win by losing - look at the Labour Cabinet of 1979, some of whom thought Labour would soon return to power refreshed by a brief spell in opposition...
    It will inevitably fall apart.
    As Keynes said, 'In the long run, we are all dead'. I'd rather be in power now and try to shape the course of events, rather than deliberately let ourselves lose for fear of possible future defeats.
    Presumably you have a preference?

    Either Singapore on Thames with high levels of immigration, low workers rights, low taxes or less immigration and high government spending.

    How do you even know which your team is going for given they are promising both and led by a liar? Optimism is a wonderful thing but can be dangerous when dealing with a charlatan.
    You just need to do enough to please the disparate elements of your base, and if it gets a bit messy, well, that's politics!
    Other Tories on here are equally confident Johnson is a social liberal wanting to have an immigration amnesty and higher non EU migration as the home secretary indicated with fast track visas last week.

    How do you think massive government spending increases are consistent with low taxes? We might get low taxes short term by borrowing but sooner or later things get paid for? Or has he found a magic money tree?
    You know how these election promises work, right? If Boris wins, he may spend a little more and tax a little less - not much change. But the net positive effect of keeping out the anti-British socialist disaster that is Corbyn is gigantic.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    So Boris didn’t speak to Farage? There is no backroom deal? Perhaps then Boris should sack the Tory chief who offered Farage a peerage without the PMs knowledge? 😆

    Anyway, cheek to cheek FaceTime to FaceTime or feminine looking men in trench coats in back alleyways or however, what exactly did Boris say upon Farage?

    I can tell you. We know exactly what he said. If the Parliament’s well hung there is no option but to put brexit deal back to the people. We know this as fact because Farage proclaimed for headlines “I am doing this to prevent a further referendum”.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,838

    I haven't seen these. But I know which one worked.

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1194387433061855232

    That Tory PPB was terrible! I wonder why the Tories employ some of these PR advisers as it looks like this campaign is going to be as bad as the 2017 one. The hundreds of thousands or even millions they spend on the advisors would probably create more impact if they used the cash on the ground...
    Does it work on the same basis as shitposting? ShitPPBing?
  • egg said:

    I haven't seen these. But I know which one worked.

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1194387433061855232

    One clear winner. A Party broadcast with Thai curry. Solid choice.

    Panang Gai For me
    Now I have watched it. Unbelievably manipulative.

    Very clever Dom. Very clever.


  • Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:



    .
    PB’s affluent reactionaries are getting all Four Yorkshiremen. But Britain is now declining relative to Europe and the USA.
    Alastair, you're a well-heeled city lawyer who is earnestly wishing he could turn the clock back to some time in the early twenty-first century before all these beastly people who don't agree with you came along - I'm puzzled you're calling me an affluent reactionary. I'm a mid-level office drone from Manchester. I just recognise that things in the UK in the twenty first century are pretty nice, all things considered. Come on fella; cheer up - give us a smile!
    The country is going slowly to shit largely because retired Leavers decided to settle for loafing off the younger generation, who will see them out nicely. The country is declining relative to its peers and the fact of Brexit on the terms that Boris Johnson was dictated by the EU will only accelerate that. It is a divided country that is likely to split up in the near future.

    Politically there isn’t much to smile about.
    Britain is not going to shit. Britain faces a period of decline relative to the rest of the world because the third world is catching up, and we should welcome that - but Britain will continue to get richer. Will it split up? NI and Scotland may go their own way, and good luck to them if they do; but it will just be a political decision: they're not about to sail off into the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans respectively. No matter what state they live in, our children will live in a richer, cleaner, safer world. Certain aspects of life will be worse; most will be better.
    Some of our peers will do better, some will do worse. If I had no roots here I would emigrate to NZ - but that is not a view on either country's economic prospects, just a yearning for wide open spaces. But I have family here, so here I remain. And here is pretty good, all things told. Life is good. Most people are nice. We have abundance beyond the dreams of your childhood or mine. We have problems, but they are first world problems, and they are fixable.

    I know you have spent mental energy wishing not only that the government was other than it is but that the opposition was other than it is. I expect most people here have. We can agree that ideally our two main parties would be other than they are. But there is plenty else in life to be cheerful and optimistic about.
    Britain is not just declining relative to the developing world. It is declining relative to the developed world. Brexit on Boris Johnson’s terms will make that still worse.

    Ambitious young people will start to leave. And they will be right to do so.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Cookie said:

    they're not about to sail off into the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans respectively

    Why do people say things like this? It was incredibly prevalent during the EU referendum. "We won't leave Europe, we aren't going off into the Atlantic," I was assured at least a dozen times. Yes, we know. We all know.
  • blueblue said:

    blueblue said:

    blueblue said:

    blueblue said:

    There’s a poll out tonight showing 67% of Britons support freedom of movement across the UK and EU. Which makes me again wonder why we bothered with this pointless Brexit lark in the first place.

    Because for many of us it had sweet FA to do with immigration.
    One doesn't win by losing - look at the Labour Cabinet of 1979, some of whom thought Labour would soon return to power refreshed by a brief spell in opposition...
    It will inevitably fall apart.
    As Keynes said, 'In the long run, we are all dead'. I'd rather be in power now and try to shape the course of events, rather than deliberately let ourselves lose for fear of possible future defeats.
    Presumably you have a preference?

    Either Singapore on Thames with high levels of immigration, low workers rights, low taxes or less immigration and high government spending.

    How do you even know which your team is going for given they are promising both and led by a liar? Optimism is a wonderful thing but can be dangerous when dealing with a charlatan.
    You just need to do enough to please the disparate elements of your base, and if it gets a bit messy, well, that's politics!
    Other Tories on here are equally confident Johnson is a social liberal wanting to have an immigration amnesty and higher non EU migration as the home secretary indicated with fast track visas last week.

    How do you think massive government spending increases are consistent with low taxes? We might get low taxes short term by borrowing but sooner or later things get paid for? Or has he found a magic money tree?
    You know how these election promises work, right? If Boris wins, he may spend a little more and tax a little less - not much change. But the net positive effect of keeping out the anti-British socialist disaster that is Corbyn is gigantic.
    I think that by voting for a Johnson govt you are not voting for low (or high) taxes, low (or high) immigration, but voting for whatever the latest pollsters tell the government. It will be incoherent, inconsistent, oversold and doomed to fail.
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    edited November 2019
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:



    .
    PB’s affluent reactionaries are getting all Four Yorkshiremen. But Britain is now declining relative to Europe and the USA.
    Alastair, you're a well-heeled city lawyer who is earnestly wishing he could turn the clock back to some time in the early twenty-first century before all these beastly people who don't agree with you came along - I'm puzzled you're calling me an affluent reactionary. I'm a mid-level office drone from Manchester. I just recognise that things in the UK in the twenty first century are pretty nice, all things considered. Come on fella; cheer up - give us a smile!
    The country is going slowly to shit largely because retired Leavers decided to settle for loafing off the younger generation, who will see them out nicely. The country is declining relative to its peers and the fact of Brexit on the terms that Boris Johnson was dictated by the EU will only accelerate that. It is a divided country that is likely to split up in the near future.

    Politically there isn’t much to smile about.
    Britain is not going to shit. Britain faces a period of decline relative to the rest of the world because the third world is catching up, and we should welcome that - but Britain will continue to get richer. Will it split up? NI and Scotland may go their own way, and good luck to them if they do; but it will just be a political decision: they're not about to sail off into the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans respectively. No matter what state they live in, our children will live in a richer, cleaner, safer world. Certain aspects of life will be worse; most will be better.
    Some of our peers will do better, some will do worse. If I had no roots here I would emigrate to NZ - but that is not a view on either country's economic prospects, just a yearning for wide open spaces. But I have family here, so here I remain. And here is pretty good, all things told. Life is good. Most people are nice. We have abundance beyond the dreams of your childhood or mine. We have problems, but they are first world problems, and they are fixable.

    I know you have spent mental energy wishing not only that the government was other than it is but that the opposition was other than it is. I expect most people here have. We can agree that ideally our two main parties would be other than they are. But there is plenty else in life to be cheerful and optimistic about.
    You haven't watched ITV2 recently
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited November 2019



    You haven't watched ITV2 recently

    If you think ITV2 is bad, you should see the new Star War show on Disney+, The Mandalorian.....

    I think the Guardian were very generous to give it 2 Stars.

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2019/nov/12/the-mandalorian-review-star-wars-jon-favreau
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    blueblue said:

    blueblue said:

    blueblue said:

    blueblue said:

    There’s a poll out tonight showing 67% of Britons support freedom of movement across the UK and EU. Which makes me again wonder why we bothered with this pointless Brexit lark in the first place.

    Because for many of us it had sweet FA to do with immigration.
    Indeed. Those who are cheering on a Tory majority to stop Corbyn are making a long term error imo. The best way to stop Corbynism is for him to be nominally in charge of a shit situation now, but constrained by the SNP and LD.

    A Tory majority has a far greater chance of leading to eventual real Corbynism, particularly as the age and home ownership demographics will be further against the Tories in 5 years time.
    As Keynes said, 'In the long run, we are all dead'. I'd rather be in power now and try to shape the course of events, rather than deliberately let ourselves lose for fear of possible future defeats.
    You just need to do enough to please the disparate elements of your base, and if it gets a bit messy, well, that's politics!
    Other Tories on here are equally confident Johnson is a social liberal wanting to have an immigration amnesty and higher non EU migration as the home secretary indicated with fast track visas last week.

    How do you think massive government spending increases are consistent with low taxes? We might get low taxes short term by borrowing but sooner or later things get paid for? Or has he found a magic money tree?
    You know how these election promises work, right? If Boris wins, he may spend a little more and tax a little less - not much change. But the net positive effect of keeping out the anti-British socialist disaster that is Corbyn is gigantic.
    You know these things work right? The short lived corbyn administration will be nothing other than a 70s labour Keynesian government floundering in a world where the post war consensus is in a crypt, torpedoing itself with Bewildering foreign policy and internal infighting. The country will emerge relatively unscathed for landslide Tory majority to tidy up, And everyone at least feeling it’s out their system trying the wardrobe in that part of the room and knowing for sure now that it’s ghastly there.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    I don't think that there is any doubt that Labour have been recovering somewhat from the meltdown that they seemed to be suffering a couple of weeks ago but the Tories have also improved (if not quite by as much) from squeezing TBP. At around 40% I think the Tories are very probably at or at least near their ceiling. The question is whether Labour can close the gap again as they did in 2017.

    I have my doubts. It seems to me that Labour has pissed off a lot of potential supporters who are supporting the revoke party. Some may come back tactically but there is not a lot of trust. Others are genuinely disgusted by the Antisemitism. Others are just sick to death of Brexit and want it to be done. All of these groups, which might be small in themselves, are going to be hard to win back. I think Labour will struggle to make 35% this time out which will involve a swing of 2-3% in favour of the Tories, enough for a modest majority. And for Labour it just might get a whole lot worse.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380



    You haven't watched ITV2 recently

    If you think ITV2 is bad, you should see the new Star War show on Disney+, The Mandalorian.....

    I think the Guardian were very generous to give it 2 Stars.

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2019/nov/12/the-mandalorian-review-star-wars-jon-favreau
    I thought all Star Wars stuff was shit?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited November 2019
    Noo said:



    You haven't watched ITV2 recently

    If you think ITV2 is bad, you should see the new Star War show on Disney+, The Mandalorian.....

    I think the Guardian were very generous to give it 2 Stars.

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2019/nov/12/the-mandalorian-review-star-wars-jon-favreau
    I thought all Star Wars stuff was shit?
    This new offering makes the Han Solo movie look good. Its Radiohead live at Glastonbury bad.
  • egg said:

    I haven't seen these. But I know which one worked.

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1194387433061855232

    One clear winner. A Party broadcast with Thai curry. Solid choice.

    Panang Gai For me
    Now I have watched it. Unbelievably manipulative.

    Very clever Dom. Very clever.


    It's not Dom. Tory videos are down to the Kiwis.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/boris-johnson-s-conservatives-hire-kiwi-gurus-who-worked-on-morrison-s-shock-win-20191008-p52yia.html
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Its Radiohead live at Glastonbury bad.

    Isn't that an automatic ban? :D
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    There’s a poll out tonight showing 67% of Britons support freedom of movement across the UK and EU. Which makes me again wonder why we bothered with this pointless Brexit lark in the first place.

    Because for many of us it had sweet FA to do with immigration.
    Lets say we leave with Johnson's deal. How is anyone going to keep the majority of the country happy when the reasons for leave are diverse and sometimes different groups of leavers have completely opposite objectives?

    When the leave coalition breaks down, as it surely will, we will be vulnerable to Corbynism, probably a post Corbyn version, but it will be radical and dangerous.
    So because you are afraid of a Corbyn Government in the future you think we should vote for a Corbyn Government now? Not really following your logic there.
    To be fair there is an argument to be made that some form of Corbynism coming to power is inevitable; and rather it happens sooner while still divisive rather than later with it being swept to a landslide victory under a more savvy leader.
  • Viewers are aghast as Boris Johnson adds milk to his cup of tea BEFORE removing the bag

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7678705/Storm-teacup-Viewers-aghast-PM-adds-milk-cup-tea-removing-bag.html

    Doc Brown - My Proper Tea

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FtK_vfp8po8
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Britain is not just declining relative to the developing world. It is declining relative to the developed world. Brexit on Boris Johnson’s terms will make that still worse.

    Ambitious young people will start to leave. And they will be right to do so.
    This is almost certainly wrong. The UK outperformed the rest of the EU and most of the G7 pretty consistently from 2010 to 2015. It was hardly surprising that after that our out performance declined somewhat. In choosing a date of 2016 as the starting point these graphs give a very distorted view. The chart in this article shows the position over a longer period: https://www.ft.com/content/cf51e840-7147-11e7-93ff-99f383b09ff9

    There is no reason that the UK cannot out perform again in the future. We have strength in services which tend to grow more quickly in developed countries. We have a better age demographic than most EU countries, much better than Germany's. We have vastly superior Universities. We have London.

    I think it is very likely that the UK will out perform the EZ over the next decade. It will always be possible to argue that we might have done even better had we remained. We are unlikely to have a definitive answer for that but your pessimism is overdone.
  • egg said:

    I haven't seen these. But I know which one worked.

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1194387433061855232

    One clear winner. A Party broadcast with Thai curry. Solid choice.

    Panang Gai For me
    Now I have watched it. Unbelievably manipulative.

    Very clever Dom. Very clever.


    It's not Dom. Tory videos are down to the Kiwis.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/boris-johnson-s-conservatives-hire-kiwi-gurus-who-worked-on-morrison-s-shock-win-20191008-p52yia.html
    Thanks
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,838
    edited November 2019

    Viewers are aghast as Boris Johnson adds milk to his cup of tea BEFORE removing the bag

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7678705/Storm-teacup-Viewers-aghast-PM-adds-milk-cup-tea-removing-bag.html

    Doc Brown - My Proper Tea

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FtK_vfp8po8

    OK - sod Brexit, on to the big issues. I frequently leave the bag in - I like a very strong cup of tea. There are two mainstream alternatives: leave to brew and return four or five minutes later (ideal, but 25% of cups of tea get forgotten) or a quick dunk and a mash with the spoon (potentially resulting in an insufficiently string cup of tea and/or a damaged spoon). The bag-left-in approach has a lot to recommend it.
  • DavidL said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Britain is not just declining relative to the developing world. It is declining relative to the developed world. Brexit on Boris Johnson’s terms will make that still worse.

    Ambitious young people will start to leave. And they will be right to do so.
    This is almost certainly wrong. The UK outperformed the rest of the EU and most of the G7 pretty consistently from 2010 to 2015. It was hardly surprising that after that our out performance declined somewhat. In choosing a date of 2016 as the starting point these graphs give a very distorted view. The chart in this article shows the position over a longer period: https://www.ft.com/content/cf51e840-7147-11e7-93ff-99f383b09ff9

    There is no reason that the UK cannot out perform again in the future. We have strength in services which tend to grow more quickly in developed countries. We have a better age demographic than most EU countries, much better than Germany's. We have vastly superior Universities. We have London.

    I think it is very likely that the UK will out perform the EZ over the next decade. It will always be possible to argue that we might have done even better had we remained. We are unlikely to have a definitive answer for that but your pessimism is overdone.
    That’s just absurd Leaver optimism. First, you need to factor in the massive voluntary hit that Britain is going to sign up for with an exceptionally hard and divisive withdrawal agreement. Then you need to factor in that Britain is going to be absorbed negotiating the trade deal for the foreseeable future, taking away all bandwidth from government to actually do anything to mitigate the unnecessary shock that Brexit will have put Britain through. That should see out your decade without the merest trace of ground for optimism for outperformance.
  • Noo said:

    Its Radiohead live at Glastonbury bad.

    Isn't that an automatic ban? :D
    If you want bad, check out Sainsbury's Xmas ad. If you're a shareholder it's got sell immediately written all over it.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Are the papers boasting “Boris now 14 points ahead in polls” on message?

    The Matt nails it. Again.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    Andrew said:
    Very implausible. Even in the Tory party they can't just swap one candidate for another without finding reaon to dump the previous one.
  • Cookie said:



    The country is going slowly to shit largely because retired Leavers decided to settle for loafing off the younger generation, who will see them out nicely. The country is declining relative to its peers and the fact of Brexit on the terms that Boris Johnson was dictated by the EU will only accelerate that. It is a divided country that is likely to split up in the near future.

    Politically there isn’t much to smile about.

    Britain is not going to shit. Britain faces a period of decline relative to the rest of the world because the third world is catching up, and we should welcome that - but Britain will continue to get richer. Will it split up? NI and Scotland may go their own way, and good luck to them if they do; but it will just be a political decision: they're not about to sail off into the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans respectively. No matter what state they live in, our children will live in a richer, cleaner, safer world. Certain aspects of life will be worse; most will be better.
    Some of our peers will do better, some will do worse. If I had no roots here I would emigrate to NZ - but that is not a view on either country's economic prospects, just a yearning for wide open spaces. But I have family here, so here I remain. And here is pretty good, all things told. Life is good. Most people are nice. We have abundance beyond the dreams of your childhood or mine. We have problems, but they are first world problems, and they are fixable.

    I know you have spent mental energy wishing not only that the government was other than it is but that the opposition was other than it is. I expect most people here have. We can agree that ideally our two main parties would be other than they are. But there is plenty else in life to be cheerful and optimistic about.
    I admire your optimism, and in general I can get behind most of this, and god knows we need to start being more civil to each other and calling out the things that unite us more than divide us, etc.

    But first world problems aside, and taking a global view, species loss and ecosystem degradation are the big ones. Climate change is just a force multiplier, an equerry if you will of these two apocalyptic horseman We desperately need radical solutions to rewire how we structure society for everyone's benefit. Boris being a bit more socially liberal does not solve the death march of late-stage capitalism. The hidden hand does not care much for biodiversity, and our survival rather depends on it.
  • Hillary Clinton 'under enormous pressure' to run in 2020

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50399230
  • PierrotPierrot Posts: 112
    I looked for previous instances where a political party was targeted with a cyberattack during an election campaign. The biggest example I found was the attacks on the Liberal Party, the Labor Party and the Nationals in Australia earlier this year. The Australian Signals Directorate (Oz GCHQ,) has blamed China. The Australian Conservative Party, which won a surprise victory under campaign manager Isaac Levido (currently running the Tory campaign in Britain) was not under attack as far as I am aware.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    Cookie said:



    The country is going .

    Britain is not going to shit. Britain faces a period of decline relative to the rest of the world because the third world is catching up, and we should welcome that - but Britain will continue to get richer. Will it split up? NI and Scotland may go their own way, and good luck to them if they do; but it will just be a political decision: they're not about to sail off into the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans respectively. No matter what state they live in, our children will live in a richer, cleaner, safer world. Certain aspects of life will be worse; most will be better.
    Some of our peers will do better, some will do worse. If I had no roots here I would emigrate to NZ - but that is not a view on either country's economic prospects, just a yearning for wide open spaces. But I have family here, so here I remain. And here is pretty good, all things told. Life is good. Most people are nice. We have abundance beyond the dreams of your childhood or mine. We have problems, but they are first world problems, and they are fixable.

    I know you have spent mental energy wishing not only that the government was other than it is but that the opposition was other than it is. I expect most people here have. We can agree that ideally our two main parties would be other than they are. But there is plenty else in life to be cheerful and optimistic about.
    I admire your optimism, and in general I can get behind most of this, and god knows we need to start being more civil to each other and calling out the things that unite us more than divide us, etc.

    But first world problems aside, and taking a global view, species loss and ecosystem degradation are the big ones. Climate change is just a force multiplier, an equerry if you will of these two apocalyptic horseman We desperately need radical solutions to rewire how we structure society for everyone's benefit. Boris being a bit more socially liberal does not solve the death march of late-stage capitalism. The hidden hand does not care much for biodiversity, and our survival rather depends on it.
    To be fair communism or socialism does not have a great record on environmental issues or problems. I can see a route where state legislates and forces society to change. I can also see the private sector in abiding by rules finding more efficient outcomes for producing eco friendly products for us to consume. Environmental standards and the roll out of new procedures, quality benchmarks and transnational cooperation is something the EU was rather good at facilitating imo. I dont think BJ has an agenda or policy platform to propell the UK forward on a path of conserving the environment whilst raising our ability to compete internationally in new industries.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited November 2019
    Pierrot said:

    I looked for previous instances where a political party was targeted with a cyberattack during an election campaign. The biggest example I found was the attacks on the Liberal Party, the Labor Party and the Nationals in Australia earlier this year. The Australian Signals Directorate (Oz GCHQ,) has blamed China. The Australian Conservative Party, which won a surprise victory under campaign manager Isaac Levido (currently running the Tory campaign in Britain) was not under attack as far as I am aware.

    Except that was a genuine sophisticated cyber attack.

    Todays, was a standard DDOS, which every online business has to protect against on a daily basis. The Tories got hit with one during their conference, Labour campaign leaflet system got hit, because it appears they didn't setup Cloudflare to fully protect all their systems, only some of them.
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