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System Posts: 12,578
edited November 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Brexit Carol – how last time is shaping views of GE2019

There is a ghost which is stalking this election in the media coverage, and it is the spirit of 2017. Everywhere one looks right leaning journalists are fretting and not quite believing the polls. The spirit of Election 2017 and a good ghost for Labour it is too – “Oh Jeremy Corbyn !”.

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Comments

  • SquareRoot
    SquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Fiirst.. maybe ...
  • Stark_Dawning
    Stark_Dawning Posts: 10,202
    One thing I can't square: a lot of people genuinely thought Theresa was the Second Coming (effigies erected on the cliffs of Dover etc.), but almost everybody thinks Boris is a bit of an arse. So how can the latter be doing better then the former when nothing else has changed?
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    edited November 2019
    We need a name for the new party. ConBrex...BrexCon...The ConMen ....KipperCons....BluKips....The shits

    Good Header Pulp! After giving me the two correct results out of two I was interested in I'm following you big time!!
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Oh, and thanks, Pulpstar! Love the header picture.
  • TheGreenMachine
    TheGreenMachine Posts: 1,097
    Roger said:

    We need a name for the new party. ConBrex...BrexCon...The ConMen ....KipperCons....BluKips....The shits

    Good Header Pulp! After giving me the two correct results i was interested in I'm following you big time!!

    The conmen will work...
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    RobD said:

    Relevant to this thread, a plot I quickly threw together showing the share of Tory and Labour in 2017 (crosses) and 2019 (circles). If I have time I'll try to add trendlines...

    https://imgur.com/wlZXn52

    Edit: not sure how to make it less huge, sorry about that.

    Nice.
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    They appear to have become a remain party to leavers and a leave party to remainers. This is the opposite of and the biggest change to 2017 where they pulled the trick of appearing to be a leave party to leavers and a remain party to remainers.

    Excellent article and if you're right a more apt comparison for Labour is Lib Dems in 2015.

    Lib Dems succeeded in the past by being "not the Tories" to left-leaning voters and "not Labour" to right-leaning voters but after the Coalition they were unable to repeat that trick. Right leaning voters worried they'd put in Labour and left-leaning voters worried they'd put in the Tories. Better to vote for what you believe in than a party you can't rely upon.

    Labour look in danger of repeating the same fate as the Lib Dems in 2015. From appealing to both sides to appealing to neither.
  • philiph
    philiph Posts: 4,705
    edited November 2019
    Stark_Dawning said:

    One thing I can't square: a lot of people genuinely thought Theresa was the Second Coming (effigies erected on the cliffs of Dover etc.), but almost everybody thinks Boris is a bit of an arse. So how can the latter be doing better then the former when nothing else has changed?

    Time has changed by over two years.

    Learning and experiences have permeated the electorate.
  • Black_Rook
    Black_Rook Posts: 8,905
    "Everywhere one looks the written media is observing this election as a closish horse race “You can’t rely on labour leavers to not revert to type” twitter journalists type."


    Because they're right. Sorry, I wish it wasn't true, but it is.

    Labour have been heading Northwards in the polls since the start of the campaign, and will continue to do so.
  • roserees64
    roserees64 Posts: 251
    Rumour has it that Nigel Farage has been offered a peerage. Is there any truth in this? Sir Nigel could then hang up his spurs for good.

    Boris has the horrific prospect of surviving the TV debates ahead of him, there will be the usual audience plant hoping to spike Corbyn, who has nothing to lose. It should be interesting.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    On topic: I think Pulpstar is probably right. Of course there is no such thing as 'objective truth' in trying to guess how voters will actually behave when they cast their votes, but there's no particular reason to suppose that it will be a repeat of 2017, and lots of reasons to suppose it won't. In particular I don't think the vile but effective Momentum social-media campaign of 2017 will work again to anything like the same extent. Once bitten, twice shy.
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    Roger said:

    We need a name for the new party. ConBrex...BrexCon...The ConMen ....KipperCons....BluKips....The shits

    Good Header Pulp! After giving me the two correct results out of two I was interested in I'm following you big time!!

    Today’s announcement certainly consolidates what we’re against. Cameron must be turning in his political grave.
  • Peter_the_Punter
    Peter_the_Punter Posts: 14,779
    RobD said:

    Relevant to this thread, a plot I quickly threw together showing the share of Tory and Labour in 2017 (crosses) and 2019 (circles). If I have time I'll try to add trendlines...

    https://imgur.com/wlZXn52

    Edit: not sure how to make it less huge, sorry about that.

    Thanks Rod, that's kind of cute!

    The takeaway is, I suppose, that whilst there's less evidence this time round of a Labour recovery the gap it needs to close is smaller. No?
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    RobD said:

    Relevant to this thread, a plot I quickly threw together showing the share of Tory and Labour in 2017 (crosses) and 2019 (circles). If I have time I'll try to add trendlines...

    https://imgur.com/wlZXn52

    Edit: not sure how to make it less huge, sorry about that.

    Nice.
    There was a poll ten days ago which put Labour on 21%???
  • viewcode
    viewcode Posts: 25,202
    RobD said:

    Relevant to this thread, a plot I quickly threw together showing the share of Tory and Labour in 2017 (crosses) and 2019 (circles). If I have time I'll try to add trendlines...

    https://imgur.com/wlZXn52

    Edit: not sure how to make it less huge, sorry about that.

    That's very useful, thank you
  • Peter_the_Punter
    Peter_the_Punter Posts: 14,779
    Stark_Dawning said:

    One thing I can't square: a lot of people genuinely thought Theresa was the Second Coming (effigies erected on the cliffs of Dover etc.), but almost everybody thinks Boris is a bit of an arse. So how can the latter be doing better then the former when nothing else has changed?

    Blind faith, dogma, and a determination to Brexit, whatever that might mean and whatever the consequences.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    RobD said:

    Relevant to this thread, a plot I quickly threw together showing the share of Tory and Labour in 2017 (crosses) and 2019 (circles). If I have time I'll try to add trendlines...

    https://imgur.com/wlZXn52

    Edit: not sure how to make it less huge, sorry about that.

    Nice.
    There was a poll ten days ago which put Labour on 21%???
    Yeah, a YouGov one.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    RobD said:

    Relevant to this thread, a plot I quickly threw together showing the share of Tory and Labour in 2017 (crosses) and 2019 (circles). If I have time I'll try to add trendlines...

    https://imgur.com/wlZXn52

    Edit: not sure how to make it less huge, sorry about that.

    Thanks Rod, that's kind of cute!

    The takeaway is, I suppose, that whilst there's less evidence this time round of a Labour recovery the gap it needs to close is smaller. No?
    Rod? :open_mouth:

    Both parties are trending upwards - but no guarantee either will continue to do so. We all remember what happened in 2010.
  • Peter_the_Punter
    Peter_the_Punter Posts: 14,779
    RobD said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    RobD said:

    Relevant to this thread, a plot I quickly threw together showing the share of Tory and Labour in 2017 (crosses) and 2019 (circles). If I have time I'll try to add trendlines...

    https://imgur.com/wlZXn52

    Edit: not sure how to make it less huge, sorry about that.

    Thanks Rod, that's kind of cute!

    The takeaway is, I suppose, that whilst there's less evidence this time round of a Labour recovery the gap it needs to close is smaller. No?
    Rod? :open_mouth:

    Both parties are trending upwards - but no guarantee either will continue to do so. We all remember what happened in 2010.
    I do apologise, Bob.
  • viewcode
    viewcode Posts: 25,202
    Stark_Dawning said:

    One thing I can't square: a lot of people genuinely thought Theresa was the Second Coming (effigies erected on the cliffs of Dover etc.), but almost everybody thinks Boris is a bit of an arse. So how can the latter be doing better then the former when nothing else has changed?

    Because May showed herself incapable of delivering Leave, and Boris is thought to be a better bet.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Philip_Thompson said:

    They appear to have become a remain party to leavers and a leave party to remainers. This is the opposite of and the biggest change to 2017 where they pulled the trick of appearing to be a leave party to leavers and a remain party to remainers.

    Excellent article and if you're right a more apt comparison for Labour is Lib Dems in 2015.

    Lib Dems succeeded in the past by being "not the Tories" to left-leaning voters and "not Labour" to right-leaning voters but after the Coalition they were unable to repeat that trick. Right leaning voters worried they'd put in Labour and left-leaning voters worried they'd put in the Tories. Better to vote for what you believe in than a party you can't rely upon.

    Labour look in danger of repeating the same fate as the Lib Dems in 2015. From appealing to both sides to appealing to neither.

    That could be the most prescient of posts.

    Labour down to 7 seats? ;)
  • Mysticrose
    Mysticrose Posts: 4,688
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1193936113242648577?s=20
  • Cookie
    Cookie Posts: 15,685
    Good article Pulpstar - but I still don't believe it. I think Cons might have reaches a ceiling in seats like Bolsover - everyone in Bolsover who was ever going to vote Conservativedis so last time. And it wasn't enough, and still won't be enough this time. The 2017 Conservatives got almost as many votea as any party has ever got - they're only going downwards from there. Meanwhile, voters, it seems, genuinely don't care about candidates like Sultana in Coventry South. As long as you're not a Tory, you can pretty much say what you like and people will still vote for you.
    So despite your excellent analysis, I'm still expecting a convincing Labour revival over the next few weeks, and increasingly Corbyn as PM. If we're lucky, a handful of LD MPs and some Scot Nats who are largely disinterested inwhat haooens to England and Wales will be stong enough to keep a far-left Labour Party leadership who admire revolutionary communism in check until a saner leader or a saner party can be conjured up from somewhere.
    I very much hope you are right and I am wrong!
  • numbertwelve
    numbertwelve Posts: 7,728
    Stark_Dawning said:

    One thing I can't square: a lot of people genuinely thought Theresa was the Second Coming (effigies erected on the cliffs of Dover etc.), but almost everybody thinks Boris is a bit of an arse. So how can the latter be doing better then the former when nothing else has changed?

    She decided to p off the voters by putting out a ridiculously unpopular care policy and hid from scrutiny all campaign.
  • Mysticrose
    Mysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Mysticrose said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1193936113242648577?s=20

    ComRes 7% gap. I still don't believe Labour will poll in the 20's.

    If they get to within 5% of the tories then this is all to play for.
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    Mysticrose said:

    Mysticrose said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1193936113242648577?s=20

    ComRes 7% gap. I still don't believe Labour will poll in the 20's.

    If they get to within 5% of the tories then this is all to play for.
    Today helps rally the troops.
  • Mysticrose
    Mysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited November 2019
    pb has officially gone all anti-Corbyn which is fine but it's ignoring the fact that, actually, the tories aren't doing particularly well either and Johnson's not THAT popular.

    Whose core vote will ultimately prevail? I know where my money is, literally, and it ain't with this thread header.
  • Noo
    Noo Posts: 2,380
    Cookie said:

    Good article Pulpstar - but I still don't believe it. I think Cons might have reaches a ceiling in seats like Bolsover - everyone in Bolsover who was ever going to vote Conservativedis so last time. And it wasn't enough, and still won't be enough this time. The 2017 Conservatives got almost as many votea as any party has ever got - they're only going downwards from there. Meanwhile, voters, it seems, genuinely don't care about candidates like Sultana in Coventry South. As long as you're not a Tory, you can pretty much say what you like and people will still vote for you.
    So despite your excellent analysis, I'm still expecting a convincing Labour revival over the next few weeks, and increasingly Corbyn as PM. If we're lucky, a handful of LD MPs and some Scot Nats who are largely disinterested inwhat haooens to England and Wales will be stong enough to keep a far-left Labour Party leadership who admire revolutionary communism in check until a saner leader or a saner party can be conjured up from somewhere.
    I very much hope you are right and I am wrong!

    There are very few seats where I'd actually like to the see the Conservatives unseat a Labour MP, but that is definitely one. I would fucking love it if Skinner lost to a blue.
  • Mysticrose
    Mysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Jonathan said:

    Mysticrose said:

    Mysticrose said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1193936113242648577?s=20

    ComRes 7% gap. I still don't believe Labour will poll in the 20's.

    If they get to within 5% of the tories then this is all to play for.
    Today helps rally the troops.
    For Labour you mean? I think so. A huge outcry about the stitch up but more pertinently, it means Corbyn can hammer home the message that a vote for Johnson is a vote for Farage-Trump and a No Deal Brexit next year. Potent message for Labour.

    Twitter is all agog.
  • numbertwelve
    numbertwelve Posts: 7,728
    On topic, this is what I have said since the campaign started. We have got to stop thinking in terms of the last battle. That’s not to say that we should assume any outcome (I still think we’re in HP to slim Tory majority territory) but just because the labour vote recovered in 2017 doesn’t mean it will happen again.

    They will poll at least 29-30% though, IMHO.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    RobD said:

    Relevant to this thread, a plot I quickly threw together showing the share of Tory and Labour in 2017 (crosses) and 2019 (circles). If I have time I'll try to add trendlines...

    https://imgur.com/wlZXn52

    Edit: not sure how to make it less huge, sorry about that.

    Could you add the trendlines (and r² values)?

    Ta
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Cookie said:

    Good article Pulpstar - but I still don't believe it. I think Cons might have reaches a ceiling in seats like Bolsover - everyone in Bolsover who was ever going to vote Conservativedis so last time. And it wasn't enough, and still won't be enough this time. The 2017 Conservatives got almost as many votea as any party has ever got - they're only going downwards from there. Meanwhile, voters, it seems, genuinely don't care about candidates like Sultana in Coventry South. As long as you're not a Tory, you can pretty much say what you like and people will still vote for you.
    So despite your excellent analysis, I'm still expecting a convincing Labour revival over the next few weeks, and increasingly Corbyn as PM. If we're lucky, a handful of LD MPs and some Scot Nats who are largely disinterested inwhat haooens to England and Wales will be stong enough to keep a far-left Labour Party leadership who admire revolutionary communism in check until a saner leader or a saner party can be conjured up from somewhere.
    I very much hope you are right and I am wrong!

    How is Corbyn going to become PM given the only realistic possible way the Tories lose their majority is if the LDs hold the balance of power and they will refuse to make Corbyn PM?
  • Cookie
    Cookie Posts: 15,685
    Mysticrose said:

    pb has officially gone all anti-Corbyn which is fine but it's ignoring the fact that, actually, the tories aren't doing particularly well either and Johnson's not THAT popular.

    Whose core vote will ultimately prevail? I know where my money is, literally, and it ain't with this thread header.

    I'm not sure PBC has gone all anti-Corbyn. There seem far more people here willing to support him here than there are IRL. And I work in the public sector.
    Which, I suppose, gives the lie to my previous comment. I'll try and calm down a bit.
  • Peter_the_Punter
    Peter_the_Punter Posts: 14,779
    numbertwelve said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    One thing I can't square: a lot of people genuinely thought Theresa was the Second Coming (effigies erected on the cliffs of Dover etc.), but almost everybody thinks Boris is a bit of an arse. So how can the latter be doing better then the former when nothing else has changed?

    She decided to p off the voters by putting out a ridiculously unpopular care policy and hid from scrutiny all campaign.
    Can't say I've seen much of Boris beyond a few well-managed photo-opps, but I expect he'll be along in a bit.
  • Mysticrose
    Mysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Black_Rook said:

    "Everywhere one looks the written media is observing this election as a closish horse race “You can’t rely on labour leavers to not revert to type” twitter journalists type."


    Because they're right. Sorry, I wish it wasn't true, but it is.

    Labour have been heading Northwards in the polls since the start of the campaign, and will continue to do so.

    Yep.

    Spot on.

  • numbertwelve
    numbertwelve Posts: 7,728
    Mysticrose said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mysticrose said:

    Mysticrose said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1193936113242648577?s=20

    ComRes 7% gap. I still don't believe Labour will poll in the 20's.

    If they get to within 5% of the tories then this is all to play for.
    Today helps rally the troops.
    For Labour you mean? I think so. A huge outcry about the stitch up but more pertinently, it means Corbyn can hammer home the message that a vote for Johnson is a vote for Farage-Trump and a No Deal Brexit next year. Potent message for Labour.

    Twitter is all agog.
    Conversely if Corbyn goes too critical of the Tory Brexit stance he pushes some more of his voters into the arms of Con/BXP, quite possibly in the seats that matter.

    Catch 22
  • Ishmael_Z
    Ishmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited November 2019
    numbertwelve said:

    On topic, this is what I have said since the campaign started. We have got to stop thinking in terms of the last battle. That’s not to say that we should assume any outcome (I still think we’re in HP to slim Tory majority territory) but just because the labour vote recovered in 2017 doesn’t mean it will happen again.

    They will poll at least 29-30% though, IMHO.

    “The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's how the smart money bets.”

    ― Damon Runyon

    -is the principle to bear in mind.
  • Beibheirli_C
    Beibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Mysticrose said:

    pb has officially gone all anti-Corbyn which is fine but it's ignoring the fact that, actually, the tories aren't doing particularly well either and Johnson's not THAT popular.

    Whose core vote will ultimately prevail? I know where my money is, literally, and it ain't with this thread header.

    If you are right, there will be a few shirts lost ;)
  • Mysticrose
    Mysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Cookie said:

    Mysticrose said:

    pb has officially gone all anti-Corbyn which is fine but it's ignoring the fact that, actually, the tories aren't doing particularly well either and Johnson's not THAT popular.

    Whose core vote will ultimately prevail? I know where my money is, literally, and it ain't with this thread header.

    I'm not sure PBC has gone all anti-Corbyn. There seem far more people here willing to support him here than there are IRL. And I work in the public sector.
    Which, I suppose, gives the lie to my previous comment. I'll try and calm down a bit.
    No I meant officially. Threads on 'who will be next Labour leader' and writing him off.

    Deja vu.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Nick Boles endorses the LDs

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/appalling-choice-contest-must-start-the-process-of-building-something-new-a4283876.html
  • Cookie
    Cookie Posts: 15,685
    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    Good article Pulpstar - but I still don't believe it. I think Cons might have reaches a ceiling in seats like Bolsover - everyone in Bolsover who was ever going to vote Conservativedis so last time. And it wasn't enough, and still won't be enough this time. The 2017 Conservatives got almost as many votea as any party has ever got - they're only going downwards from there. Meanwhile, voters, it seems, genuinely don't care about candidates like Sultana in Coventry South. As long as you're not a Tory, you can pretty much say what you like and people will still vote for you.
    So despite your excellent analysis, I'm still expecting a convincing Labour revival over the next few weeks, and increasingly Corbyn as PM. If we're lucky, a handful of LD MPs and some Scot Nats who are largely disinterested inwhat haooens to England and Wales will be stong enough to keep a far-left Labour Party leadership who admire revolutionary communism in check until a saner leader or a saner party can be conjured up from somewhere.
    I very much hope you are right and I am wrong!

    How is Corbyn going to become PM given the only realistic possible way the Tories lose their majority is if the LDs hold the balance of power and they will refuse to make Corbyn PM?
    I don't believe that they won't put him in in returnfor the promise of a referendum. They'll think they can control him. Like tha nationalists in Germany in the 1930s.
  • nichomar
    nichomar Posts: 7,483
    Labour will poll 22-25% the result depends on where their vote goes.
  • Noo
    Noo Posts: 2,380
    Mysticrose said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mysticrose said:

    Mysticrose said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1193936113242648577?s=20

    ComRes 7% gap. I still don't believe Labour will poll in the 20's.

    If they get to within 5% of the tories then this is all to play for.
    Today helps rally the troops.
    For Labour you mean? I think so. A huge outcry about the stitch up but more pertinently, it means Corbyn can hammer home the message that a vote for Johnson is a vote for Farage-Trump and a No Deal Brexit next year. Potent message for Labour.

    Twitter is all agog.
    Agreed. Today is a better day for Labour than for the Lib Dems.
    And a bad day for democracy, because once again, FPTP is eating our choices. Much as I think TBP are scum, they are scum that some people want to vote for and won't get the chance. And that's not right.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Relevant to this thread, a plot I quickly threw together showing the share of Tory and Labour in 2017 (crosses) and 2019 (circles). If I have time I'll try to add trendlines...

    https://imgur.com/wlZXn52

    Edit: not sure how to make it less huge, sorry about that.

    Could you add the trendlines (and r² values)?

    Ta
    I was thinking about adding a moving average rather than a linear trendline, but I could give it a shot (not till later though...)
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    Mysticrose said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mysticrose said:

    Mysticrose said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1193936113242648577?s=20

    ComRes 7% gap. I still don't believe Labour will poll in the 20's.

    If they get to within 5% of the tories then this is all to play for.
    Today helps rally the troops.
    For Labour you mean? I think so. A huge outcry about the stitch up but more pertinently, it means Corbyn can hammer home the message that a vote for Johnson is a vote for Farage-Trump and a No Deal Brexit next year. Potent message for Labour.

    Twitter is all agog.
    Absolutely. Underlined what we’re up against. Hope LD/Lab vote remembers how to organise itself.
  • Beibheirli_C
    Beibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    MarqueeMark said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    They appear to have become a remain party to leavers and a leave party to remainers. This is the opposite of and the biggest change to 2017 where they pulled the trick of appearing to be a leave party to leavers and a remain party to remainers.

    Excellent article and if you're right a more apt comparison for Labour is Lib Dems in 2015.

    Lib Dems succeeded in the past by being "not the Tories" to left-leaning voters and "not Labour" to right-leaning voters but after the Coalition they were unable to repeat that trick. Right leaning voters worried they'd put in Labour and left-leaning voters worried they'd put in the Tories. Better to vote for what you believe in than a party you can't rely upon.

    Labour look in danger of repeating the same fate as the Lib Dems in 2015. From appealing to both sides to appealing to neither.

    That could be the most prescient of posts.

    Labour down to 7 seats? ;)
    That would be hilarious, but I do not think those ex-Labour voters will be going Tory so do not be expecting 500 MPs on your side :D
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    nichomar said:

    Labour will poll 22-25% the result depends on where their vote goes.

    That's a very low figure.
  • No_Offence_Alan
    No_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,120
    Beibheirli_C said:

    Mysticrose said:

    pb has officially gone all anti-Corbyn which is fine but it's ignoring the fact that, actually, the tories aren't doing particularly well either and Johnson's not THAT popular.

    Whose core vote will ultimately prevail? I know where my money is, literally, and it ain't with this thread header.

    If you are right, there will be a few shirts lost ;)
    ... and a few hats eaten.
  • Paristonda
    Paristonda Posts: 1,844
    Could Labour shaft the Lib Dems by standing down in Richmond Park (and perhaps any other similar ultra close marginals)? It would force the Lib dems to show some reciprocity in Canterbury etc or risk being seen as sabotaging the remain alliance. At which point it becomes clear that Labour are Remain's best bet regardless sof the LD revoke policy (which was only ever if they were to get a majority anyway, and that has been out of the question for a long time now)
  • Harris_Tweed
    Harris_Tweed Posts: 1,340
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    RobD said:

    Relevant to this thread, a plot I quickly threw together showing the share of Tory and Labour in 2017 (crosses) and 2019 (circles). If I have time I'll try to add trendlines...

    https://imgur.com/wlZXn52

    Edit: not sure how to make it less huge, sorry about that.

    Nice.
    The striking thing about that chart is the gradient of the labour climb last time (and the lower Tory start). While Lab superficially seems to be matching the climb so far, I think it's optimstic to assume a repeat, and even last time they didn't win.
  • viewcode
    viewcode Posts: 25,202
    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Relevant to this thread, a plot I quickly threw together showing the share of Tory and Labour in 2017 (crosses) and 2019 (circles). If I have time I'll try to add trendlines...

    https://imgur.com/wlZXn52

    Edit: not sure how to make it less huge, sorry about that.

    Could you add the trendlines (and r² values)?

    Ta
    Or you could just look at the data.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anscombe's_quartet
  • maaarsh
    maaarsh Posts: 3,602
    Mysticrose said:

    pb has officially gone all anti-Corbyn which is fine but it's ignoring the fact that, actually, the tories aren't doing particularly well either and Johnson's not THAT popular.

    Compared to the only alternative, Boris is one of the most wildly popular PM candidates ever put forward.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Relevant to this thread, a plot I quickly threw together showing the share of Tory and Labour in 2017 (crosses) and 2019 (circles). If I have time I'll try to add trendlines...

    https://imgur.com/wlZXn52

    Edit: not sure how to make it less huge, sorry about that.

    Could you add the trendlines (and r² values)?

    Ta
    I was thinking about adding a moving average rather than a linear trendline, but I could give it a shot (not till later though...)
    Cheers, I think for this purpose the linear trendline probably makes more sense as it will show how things have changed from day 0 (and how that compares to the 2017 trendline from a complete dataset), the moving average is better for a nowcast though.
  • Stark_Dawning
    Stark_Dawning Posts: 10,202
    numbertwelve said:

    Mysticrose said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mysticrose said:

    Mysticrose said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1193936113242648577?s=20

    ComRes 7% gap. I still don't believe Labour will poll in the 20's.

    If they get to within 5% of the tories then this is all to play for.
    Today helps rally the troops.
    For Labour you mean? I think so. A huge outcry about the stitch up but more pertinently, it means Corbyn can hammer home the message that a vote for Johnson is a vote for Farage-Trump and a No Deal Brexit next year. Potent message for Labour.

    Twitter is all agog.
    Conversely if Corbyn goes too critical of the Tory Brexit stance he pushes some more of his voters into the arms of Con/BXP, quite possibly in the seats that matter.

    Catch 22
    That's why Jezza has to contrast his cuddly Brexit with Boris's Trumpian one. From what we know of Nigel, he hates Boris and Dom with a passion, so he must reckon that today's decision will screw them in some way. I suspect he's calculated that the re-toxification of the Tory brand through association with TBP will be prove more harmful to Boris than a few voter defections will prove helpful. Nigel wants another hung parliament and death by extension.
  • nichomar
    nichomar Posts: 7,483
    RobD said:

    nichomar said:

    Labour will poll 22-25% the result depends on where their vote goes.

    That's a very low figure.
    Yes but the picture is much clearer now than in 2017

    A brexit policy which, as the thread header, says satisfy nobody
    EHRC about to report
    Chaos with candidate selection
    Nationalization policies which when thought about are a waste of money
    A very poor front bench, even worse than the tories

    Etc etc

    I wouldn’t vote for red or blue but it’s clear many people can’t vote red, who knows where their vote will Go?
  • Black_Rook
    Black_Rook Posts: 8,905
    numbertwelve said:

    On topic, this is what I have said since the campaign started. We have got to stop thinking in terms of the last battle. That’s not to say that we should assume any outcome (I still think we’re in HP to slim Tory majority territory) but just because the labour vote recovered in 2017 doesn’t mean it will happen again.

    They will poll at least 29-30% though, IMHO.

    I've previously predicted 32-35%. I think Labour will be averaging no less than 31% in the polls by next weekend, then after that it's all about finding exactly where their ceiling is.

    I don't see them getting up to 40% again by the end of the campaign - the LD revival isn't going to evaporate entirely, and Corbyn's dire leadership ratings will have an effect somewhere in excess of zero - but if Labour end up at the top end of that range (and I'm beginning to suspect that they will) then it's going to be tight. Either another Hung Parliament or a small Tory majority, most likely in single figures and probably not in excess of 20.

    Any Con majority sees the Withdrawal Agreement passed and any of about 5 or more should, given the average age and health status of the modern MP, see them safe for a full Parliament. Although sorting out the future relationship with the EU under those circumstances would be great fun for Boris Johnson, I'm sure.

    Anything short of a Con majority and we're probably heading for another election in the first half of 2020. A Labour performance good enough to rule with SNP votes alone doesn't look like it's on the cards, and a wobbly Remain alliance featuring the Lib Dems and other bits and pieces won't be able to agree on anything except stopping Brexit.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited November 2019
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    Good article Pulpstar - but I still don't believe it. I think Cons might have reaches a ceiling in seats like Bolsover - everyone in Bolsover who was ever going to vote Conservativedis so last time. And it wasn't enough, and still won't be enough this time. The 2017 Conservatives got almost as many votea as any party has ever got - they're only going downwards from there. Meanwhile, voters, it seems, genuinely don't care about candidates like Sultana in Coventry South. As long as you're not a Tory, you can pretty much say what you like and people will still vote for you.
    So despite your excellent analysis, I'm still expecting a convincing Labour revival over the next few weeks, and increasingly Corbyn as PM. If we're lucky, a handful of LD MPs and some Scot Nats who are largely disinterested inwhat haooens to England and Wales will be stong enough to keep a far-left Labour Party leadership who admire revolutionary communism in check until a saner leader or a saner party can be conjured up from somewhere.
    I very much hope you are right and I am wrong!

    How is Corbyn going to become PM given the only realistic possible way the Tories lose their majority is if the LDs hold the balance of power and they will refuse to make Corbyn PM?
    I don't believe that they won't put him in in returnfor the promise of a referendum. They'll think they can control him. Like tha nationalists in Germany in the 1930s.
    They won't, they will vote for an EU referendum amemdment but they will not make Corbyn PM, if they did so all the gains they had made in the Home Counties from the Tories to hold the balance of power would go straight back to the Tories.

    Though interesting you compare Corbyn to Hitler
  • Gabs2
    Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Stark_Dawning said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Mysticrose said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mysticrose said:

    Mysticrose said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1193936113242648577?s=20

    ComRes 7% gap. I still don't believe Labour will poll in the 20's.

    If they get to within 5% of the tories then this is all to play for.
    Today helps rally the troops.
    For Labour you mean? I think so. A huge outcry about the stitch up but more pertinently, it means Corbyn can hammer home the message that a vote for Johnson is a vote for Farage-Trump and a No Deal Brexit next year. Potent message for Labour.

    Twitter is all agog.
    Conversely if Corbyn goes too critical of the Tory Brexit stance he pushes some more of his voters into the arms of Con/BXP, quite possibly in the seats that matter.

    Catch 22
    That's why Jezza has to contrast his cuddly Brexit with Boris's Trumpian one. From what we know of Nigel, he hates Boris and Dom with a passion, so he must reckon that today's decision will screw them in some way. I suspect he's calculated that the re-toxification of the Tory brand through association with TBP will be prove more harmful to Boris than a few voter defections will prove helpful. Nigel wants another hung parliament and death by extension.
    Farage has been forced into this by his party and falling poll numbers.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    viewcode said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Relevant to this thread, a plot I quickly threw together showing the share of Tory and Labour in 2017 (crosses) and 2019 (circles). If I have time I'll try to add trendlines...

    https://imgur.com/wlZXn52

    Edit: not sure how to make it less huge, sorry about that.

    Could you add the trendlines (and r² values)?

    Ta
    Or you could just look at the data.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anscombe's_quartet
    Hence the r² value...
  • philiph
    philiph Posts: 4,705
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    Good article Pulpstar - but I still don't believe it. I think Cons might have reaches a ceiling in seats like Bolsover - everyone in Bolsover who was ever going to vote Conservativedis so last time. And it wasn't enough, and still won't be enough this time. The 2017 Conservatives got almost as many votea as any party has ever got - they're only going downwards from there. Meanwhile, voters, it seems, genuinely don't care about candidates like Sultana in Coventry South. As long as you're not a Tory, you can pretty much say what you like and people will still vote for you.
    So despite your excellent analysis, I'm still expecting a convincing Labour revival over the next few weeks, and increasingly Corbyn as PM. If we're lucky, a handful of LD MPs and some Scot Nats who are largely disinterested inwhat haooens to England and Wales will be stong enough to keep a far-left Labour Party leadership who admire revolutionary communism in check until a saner leader or a saner party can be conjured up from somewhere.
    I very much hope you are right and I am wrong!

    How is Corbyn going to become PM given the only realistic possible way the Tories lose their majority is if the LDs hold the balance of power and they will refuse to make Corbyn PM?
    I don't believe that they won't put him in in returnfor the promise of a referendum. They'll think they can control him. Like tha nationalists in Germany in the 1930s.
    But almost any alternative in the labour party would too. Why poison yourself by putting Corbyn in?
  • nunu2
    nunu2 Posts: 1,463
    Mysticrose said:

    Mysticrose said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1193936113242648577?s=20

    ComRes 7% gap. I still don't believe Labour will poll in the 20's.

    If they get to within 5% of the tories then this is all to play for.
    Today's news changes things a lot more then people think.
  • Noo
    Noo Posts: 2,380
    https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1193921357177745408
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    Noo said:

    https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1193921357177745408

    Lol. Does anyone give a fuck what that serial loser thinks?
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    nunu2 said:

    Mysticrose said:

    Mysticrose said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1193936113242648577?s=20

    ComRes 7% gap. I still don't believe Labour will poll in the 20's.

    If they get to within 5% of the tories then this is all to play for.
    Today's news changes things a lot more then people think.
    I think it motivates remainers to vote tactically even where there is no formal alliance.
  • Noo
    Noo Posts: 2,380
    MaxPB said:

    Noo said:

    https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1193921357177745408

    Lol. Does anyone give a fuck what that serial loser thinks?
    Yes I think some people do.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    Noo said:

    MaxPB said:

    Noo said:

    https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1193921357177745408

    Lol. Does anyone give a fuck what that serial loser thinks?
    Yes I think some people do.
    Bill and Chelsea?
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    edited November 2019
    Been speaking to a few of my brexiteer Tyneside/County Durham friends tonight. They are convinced that the Brexit Party will win scores of MPs and will go into coalition with the Tories to ensure Brexit will be done properly.

    They are all voting Brexit Party...

    Hmm..
  • Fenman
    Fenman Posts: 1,047
    Game changer in Cambridgeshire as Tory Police and Crime Commissioner forced to resign.
  • maaarsh
    maaarsh Posts: 3,602
    Noo said:

    https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1193921357177745408

    Do we know what Laura Bush thinks?
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    MaxPB said:

    Noo said:

    https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1193921357177745408

    Lol. Does anyone give a fuck what that serial loser thinks?
    Hasn't she been locked up yet?
  • Noo
    Noo Posts: 2,380
    MaxPB said:

    Noo said:

    MaxPB said:

    Noo said:

    https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1193921357177745408

    Lol. Does anyone give a fuck what that serial loser thinks?
    Yes I think some people do.
    Bill and Chelsea?
    And the plurality of voters that picked her in 2016. And a lot of people who admire her for speaking up against a fascist foreign government interfering in both parties in the USA, when a lot of other politicians are hunkering down and waiting for someone else to do it. Clinton is a brave and principled woman, whatever you personally think of her policies.
  • Black_Rook
    Black_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited November 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    Good article Pulpstar - but I still don't believe it. I think Cons might have reaches a ceiling in seats like Bolsover - everyone in Bolsover who was ever going to vote Conservativedis so last time. And it wasn't enough, and still won't be enough this time. The 2017 Conservatives got almost as many votea as any party has ever got - they're only going downwards from there. Meanwhile, voters, it seems, genuinely don't care about candidates like Sultana in Coventry South. As long as you're not a Tory, you can pretty much say what you like and people will still vote for you.
    So despite your excellent analysis, I'm still expecting a convincing Labour revival over the next few weeks, and increasingly Corbyn as PM. If we're lucky, a handful of LD MPs and some Scot Nats who are largely disinterested inwhat haooens to England and Wales will be stong enough to keep a far-left Labour Party leadership who admire revolutionary communism in check until a saner leader or a saner party can be conjured up from somewhere.
    I very much hope you are right and I am wrong!

    How is Corbyn going to become PM given the only realistic possible way the Tories lose their majority is if the LDs hold the balance of power and they will refuse to make Corbyn PM?
    I don't believe that they won't put him in in returnfor the promise of a referendum. They'll think they can control him. Like tha nationalists in Germany in the 1930s.
    They won't, they will vote for an EU referendum amemdment but they will not make Corbyn PM, if they did so all the gains they had made in the Home Counties from the Tories to hold the balance of power would go straight back to the Tories.
    The Lib Dems will, given the chance, install Corbyn because somebody has to be Prime Minister, and the only two candidates will be the Conservative leader and the Labour leader. The Conservative leader can't give them the chance to Remain, so they must install the Labour one.

    Trying to wish Jeremy Corbyn away, even if they close their eyes and imagine Keir Starmer is the actual Labour leader really, really hard, won't work. They will have to treat with him to get what they want.

    The only possible getout is if the Conservatives fall so far short of a majority that the Lib Dems can abstain, and the other Opposition parties still have the numbers to outvote them. It's possible, of course, but it seems unlikely.
  • PClipp
    PClipp Posts: 2,138
    HYUFD said:

    Nick Boles endorses the LDs

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/appalling-choice-contest-must-start-the-process-of-building-something-new-a4283876.html

    That is a bit of a Wow!!!!
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    Good article Pulpstar - but I still don't believe it. I think Cons might have reaches a ceiling in seats like Bolsover - everyone in Bolsover who was ever going to vote Conservativedis so last time. And it wasn't enough, and still won't be enough this time. The 2017 Conservatives got almost as many votea as any party has ever got - they're only going downwards from there. Meanwhile, voters, it seems, genuinely don't care about candidates like Sultana in Coventry South. As long as you're not a Tory, you can pretty much say what you like and people will still vote for you.
    So despite your excellent analysis, I'm still expecting a convincing Labour revival over the next few weeks, and increasingly Corbyn as PM. If we're lucky, a handful of LD MPs and some Scot Nats who are largely disinterested inwhat haooens to England and Wales will be stong enough to keep a far-left Labour Party leadership who admire revolutionary communism in check until a saner leader or a saner party can be conjured up from somewhere.
    I very much hope you are right and I am wrong!

    How is Corbyn going to become PM given the only realistic possible way the Tories lose their majority is if the LDs hold the balance of power and they will refuse to make Corbyn PM?
    LOL, one whiff of ministerial cars and they will be signed up
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    Gabs2 said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Mysticrose said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mysticrose said:

    Mysticrose said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1193936113242648577?s=20

    ComRes 7% gap. I still don't believe Labour will poll in the 20's.

    If they get to within 5% of the tories then this is all to play for.
    Today helps rally the troops.
    For Labour you mean? I think so. A huge outcry about the stitch up but more pertinently, it means Corbyn can hammer home the message that a vote for Johnson is a vote for Farage-Trump and a No Deal Brexit next year. Potent message for Labour.

    Twitter is all agog.
    Conversely if Corbyn goes too critical of the Tory Brexit stance he pushes some more of his voters into the arms of Con/BXP, quite possibly in the seats that matter.

    Catch 22
    That's why Jezza has to contrast his cuddly Brexit with Boris's Trumpian one. From what we know of Nigel, he hates Boris and Dom with a passion, so he must reckon that today's decision will screw them in some way. I suspect he's calculated that the re-toxification of the Tory brand through association with TBP will be prove more harmful to Boris than a few voter defections will prove helpful. Nigel wants another hung parliament and death by extension.
    Farage has been forced into this by his party and falling poll numbers.
    More like he has been bought off
  • Mysticrose
    Mysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Black_Rook said:

    numbertwelve said:

    On topic, this is what I have said since the campaign started. We have got to stop thinking in terms of the last battle. That’s not to say that we should assume any outcome (I still think we’re in HP to slim Tory majority territory) but just because the labour vote recovered in 2017 doesn’t mean it will happen again.

    They will poll at least 29-30% though, IMHO.

    I've previously predicted 32-35%. I think Labour will be averaging no less than 31% in the polls by next weekend, then after that it's all about finding exactly where their ceiling is.

    I don't see them getting up to 40% again by the end of the campaign - the LD revival isn't going to evaporate entirely, and Corbyn's dire leadership ratings will have an effect somewhere in excess of zero -
    I bet this proves to be the most accurate prediction on here this side of the election.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    RobD said:

    Relevant to this thread, a plot I quickly threw together showing the share of Tory and Labour in 2017 (crosses) and 2019 (circles). If I have time I'll try to add trendlines...

    https://imgur.com/wlZXn52

    Edit: not sure how to make it less huge, sorry about that.

    Great work, Rob.

    I think that explains people’s nervousness too: will Labour consolidate around 29-30%, or keep trending up to polling day?

    We just don’t know.
  • Cookie
    Cookie Posts: 15,685
    philiph said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    Good article Pulpstar - but I still don't believe it. I think Cons might have reaches a ceiling in seats like Bolsover - everyone in Bolsover who was ever going to vote Conservativedis so last time. And it wasn't enough, and still won't be enough this time. The 2017 Conservatives got almost as many votea as any party has ever got - they're only going downwards from there. Meanwhile, voters, it seems, genuinely don't care about candidates like Sultana in Coventry South. As long as you're not a Tory, you can pretty much say what you like and people will still vote for you.
    So despite your excellent analysis, I'm still expecting a convincing Labour revival over the next few weeks, and increasingly Corbyn as PM. If we're lucky, a handful of LD MPs and some Scot Nats who are largely disinterested inwhat haooens to England and Wales will be stong enough to keep a far-left Labour Party leadership who admire revolutionary communism in check until a saner leader or a saner party can be conjured up from somewhere.
    I very much hope you are right and I am wrong!

    How is Corbyn going to become PM given the only realistic possible way the Tories lose their majority is if the LDs hold the balance of power and they will refuse to make Corbyn PM?
    I don't believe that they won't put him in in returnfor the promise of a referendum. They'll think they can control him. Like tha nationalists in Germany in the 1930s.
    But almost any alternative in the labour party would too. Why poison yourself by putting Corbyn in?
    Do parties with a couple of dozen MPs tend to be able to dictate who the leader of parties with in excess of 200 MPs is? The LDs would put the devil himself in No. 10 in exchange for a chance to Remain.
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    MaxPB said:

    Noo said:

    https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1193921357177745408

    Lol. Does anyone give a fuck what that serial loser thinks?
    What is it to do with her. Sad really
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Black_Rook said:

    HYUFD said:



    They won't, they will vote for an EU referendum amemdment but they will not make Corbyn PM, if they did so all the gains they had made in the Home Counties from the Tories to hold the balance of power would go straight back to the Tories.

    The Lib Dems will, given the chance, install Corbyn because somebody has to be Prime Minister, and the only two candidates will be the Conservative leader and the Labour leader. The Conservative leader can't give them the chance to Remain, so they must install the Labour one.

    Trying to wish Jeremy Corbyn away, even if they close their eyes and imagine Keir Starmer is the actual Labour leader really, really hard, won't work. They will have to treat with him to get what they want.

    The only possible getout is if the Conservatives fall so far short of a majority that the Lib Dems can abstain, and the other Opposition parties still have the numbers to outvote them. It's possible, of course, but it seems unlikely.
    The Lib Dems only become relevant if Labour get below 270 or so, possibly lower. Otherwise Labour can just rely on the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Greens.

    So it’s considerably more likely than not that the Lib Dems only come into the mix if Labour has gone backwards in the seat count from last time. If so, there’s a very different dynamic to party negotiations. One more heave isn’t going to be remotely credible. The party leader would have demonstrably failed.
  • egg
    egg Posts: 1,749
    maaarsh said:

    Mysticrose said:

    pb has officially gone all anti-Corbyn which is fine but it's ignoring the fact that, actually, the tories aren't doing particularly well either and Johnson's not THAT popular.

    Compared to the only alternative, Boris is one of the most wildly popular PM candidates ever put forward.
    If Labour had moderate leadership they wouldn’t be miles ahead in this election.

    There wouldn’t be an election because Boris figures wouldn’t look so bad in the commons, he wouldn’t have sent the DUP under a bus nor his liberal Tories to the gallows harangued on the way by Dom if he thought there would be an election up against a moderate labour leader,
  • alb1on
    alb1on Posts: 698
    Roger said:

    We need a name for the new party. ConBrex...BrexCon...The ConMen ....KipperCons....BluKips....The shits

    Good Header Pulp! After giving me the two correct results out of two I was interested in I'm following you big time!!

    Just name them after the PM - Porky F***in Blunders.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Black_Rook said:

    numbertwelve said:

    On topic, this is what I have said since the campaign started. We have got to stop thinking in terms of the last battle. That’s not to say that we should assume any outcome (I still think we’re in HP to slim Tory majority territory) but just because the labour vote recovered in 2017 doesn’t mean it will happen again.

    They will poll at least 29-30% though, IMHO.

    I've previously predicted 32-35%. I think Labour will be averaging no less than 31% in the polls by next weekend, then after that it's all about finding exactly where their ceiling is.

    I don't see them getting up to 40% again by the end of the campaign - the LD revival isn't going to evaporate entirely, and Corbyn's dire leadership ratings will have an effect somewhere in excess of zero - but if Labour end up at the top end of that range (and I'm beginning to suspect that they will) then it's going to be tight. Either another Hung Parliament or a small Tory majority, most likely in single figures and probably not in excess of 20.

    Any Con majority sees the Withdrawal Agreement passed and any of about 5 or more should, given the average age and health status of the modern MP, see them safe for a full Parliament. Although sorting out the future relationship with the EU under those circumstances would be great fun for Boris Johnson, I'm sure.

    Anything short of a Con majority and we're probably heading for another election in the first half of 2020. A Labour performance good enough to rule with SNP votes alone doesn't look like it's on the cards, and a wobbly Remain alliance featuring the Lib Dems and other bits and pieces won't be able to agree on anything except stopping Brexit.
    A colleague of mine who’s working on the Palace of Westminster restoration project spoke to a Parliamentary clerk today about the election.

    He thinks we’re facing a GE every 18 months or so for the next decade.
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    MaxPB said:

    Noo said:

    https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1193921357177745408

    Lol. Does anyone give a fuck what that serial loser thinks?
    whatever happened to the principle that you don't interfere with domestic politics in another country?
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MaxPB said:

    Noo said:

    https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1193921357177745408

    Lol. Does anyone give a fuck what that serial loser thinks?
    What is it to do with her. Sad really
    A former Secretary of State with extensive knowledge about Russia and direct personal experience of Russian interference in elections? Yes I’d say her view is worth hearing.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Do we know if the pollsters polling Labour now have corrected for undershooting for them last time and, if so, how and what the effect of this is?
  • egg
    egg Posts: 1,749
    Mysticrose said:

    Mysticrose said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1193936113242648577?s=20

    ComRes 7% gap. I still don't believe Labour will poll in the 20's.

    If they get to within 5% of the tories then this is all to play for.
    If they get within 5 with some tv Boris is toast.

    But all companies would have to consistently say within 5 in the last week of campaign.
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    LAB remains a real threat! Lots of people on benefits and those 'rich through mummy and daddy' who think that voting LAB demonstrates a social conscience!

    Beware the CORBYN
  • egg
    egg Posts: 1,749
    The Boris Farage Pact a hugely significant moment in this campaign. It will either help Brexit Party and Conservatives or backfire. Inside a bubble where you can’t see the difference anyway between Boris Tories and Brexit Party under Farage, this makes little difference other than idea it wont split the Brexit vote. So very good news.

    On the other hand outside that bubble where Farage is very right of centre and his love for No Deal Brexit extreme, how many BP votes hinged on not being Tory, how many Tory votes hinged on not being Farage?

    The guardian if you haven’t read it, can’t stop laughing at Farage for his climb down.

    “If this was supposed to be a rally, you’d have to call it Triumph of the Willy. Here was a guy who’d spent 10 days bullishly making Johnson an offer he couldn’t refuse, (not forgetting a 10 point demolition of Boris deal, a deal that hasn’t changed a jot) it seems the PM does not negotiate with Faragists. The Brexit party leader is one of those hapless movie villains who tells a millionaire he’s kidnapped his wife, and the millionaire goes – great, you can keep her.”

    I’m not so sure the Guardian has got this right, their position takes people on their word about what happened. Nigel said he got his assurances from a video in a Boris tweet, but with Tice and Farage both offered peerages there’s clearly been backroom discussions going on, so I agree with the BP members who feel there’s been a backroom meeting and stitch up.
  • nico67
    nico67 Posts: 5,652
    Will the Brexit Broadcast Corporation be putting Nick Boles vote for the Lib Dems as headline news or is it the case they only bother if it’s a vote for Bozo .
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    I try to take this on board, but am too aware of the ghost of 2017 I suspect. It's the same reason as a Liverpool fan I'm not at all confident despite being 8 points clear after 12 games.

  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    The next important moment is when the candidate lists are revealed and which labour seats have TBP fighting the election

    Do not be surprised if some or more marginals do not have any TBP representation

    I expect Arron Banks and Farage are in further talks over this
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MaxPB said:

    Noo said:

    https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1193921357177745408

    Lol. Does anyone give a fuck what that serial loser thinks?
    What is it to do with her. Sad really
    She’s remarkably arrogant and lacking in self-awareness.

    And, helpfully, thinks any criticism of her must be sexist or motivated by jealousy thus allowing her to be entirely dismissive of it.
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    egg said:

    maaarsh said:

    Mysticrose said:

    pb has officially gone all anti-Corbyn which is fine but it's ignoring the fact that, actually, the tories aren't doing particularly well either and Johnson's not THAT popular.

    Compared to the only alternative, Boris is one of the most wildly popular PM candidates ever put forward.
    If Labour had moderate leadership they wouldn’t be miles ahead in this election.

    There wouldn’t be an election because Boris figures wouldn’t look so bad in the commons, he wouldn’t have sent the DUP under a bus nor his liberal Tories to the gallows harangued on the way by Dom if he thought there would be an election up against a moderate labour leader,
    If Labour had moderate leadership there wouldn't never have been a 2017 election, we would have Brexited in March and PM May would be negotiating the terms of a FTA at the moment.
  • egg
    egg Posts: 1,749
    Ave_it said:

    LAB remains a real threat! Lots of people on benefits and those 'rich through mummy and daddy' who think that voting LAB demonstrates a social conscience!

    Beware the CORBYN

    That is the right message for PB Tories to keep repeating.

    I endorse this AVE IT
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    egg said:

    The Boris Farage Pact a hugely significant moment in this campaign. It will either help Brexit Party and Conservatives or backfire. Inside a bubble where you can’t see the difference anyway between Boris Tories and Brexit Party under Farage, this makes little difference other than idea it wont split the Brexit vote. So very good news.

    On the other hand outside that bubble where Farage is very right of centre and his love for No Deal Brexit extreme, how many BP votes hinged on not being Tory, how many Tory votes hinged on not being Farage?

    The guardian if you haven’t read it, can’t stop laughing at Farage for his climb down.

    “If this was supposed to be a rally, you’d have to call it Triumph of the Willy. Here was a guy who’d spent 10 days bullishly making Johnson an offer he couldn’t refuse, (not forgetting a 10 point demolition of Boris deal, a deal that hasn’t changed a jot) it seems the PM does not negotiate with Faragists. The Brexit party leader is one of those hapless movie villains who tells a millionaire he’s kidnapped his wife, and the millionaire goes – great, you can keep her.”

    I’m not so sure the Guardian has got this right, their position takes people on their word about what happened. Nigel said he got his assurances from a video in a Boris tweet, but with Tice and Farage both offered peerages there’s clearly been backroom discussions going on, so I agree with the BP members who feel there’s been a backroom meeting and stitch up.

    “Country before party” was the Brexit line to take. Just one syllable too many.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    MaxPB said:

    nunu2 said:

    Mysticrose said:

    Mysticrose said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1193936113242648577?s=20

    ComRes 7% gap. I still don't believe Labour will poll in the 20's.

    If they get to within 5% of the tories then this is all to play for.
    Today's news changes things a lot more then people think.
    I think it motivates remainers to vote tactically even where there is no formal alliance.
    Could well be. I think such was inevitable really. But potentially making a lot more Tory seats relatively safe could be major in fairness.
  • nichomar
    nichomar Posts: 7,483
    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Noo said:

    https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1193921357177745408

    Lol. Does anyone give a fuck what that serial loser thinks?
    whatever happened to the principle that you don't interfere with domestic politics in another country?
    Well Trump thinks differently he is pulling Johnson and the garages strings
  • PeterC
    PeterC Posts: 1,275
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    The next important moment is when the candidate lists are revealed and which labour seats have TBP fighting the election

    Do not be surprised if some or more marginals do not have any TBP representation

    I expect Arron Banks and Farage are in further talks over this

    Why would the Brexit Party contest Kensington?
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