Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Brexit Carol – how last time is shaping views of GE2019

1246

Comments

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    edited November 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Posts saying 'at this point in the 2017 campaign the Tories were 15 points ahead' seem to have dried up :)

    I've been away at a wedding and am now just catching up.

    Current Tory lead is 11.0%. It was 17.8% at this stage of GE2017.
    That was before the dementia tax disaster Boris will not repeat and with the Brexit Party included which was not the case in 2017
    True, but the Tory vote share only fell by 3% in the period D-31 to Election Day.

    And the current polls are showing it averaging c. 39%, so 4.5% lower than the GE 2017 result (both exc. NI).

    My point being, if the Tory share holds at current levels it will be 4.5% down on last time.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    Jason said:

    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    Hypothetical here. For arguments sake, the Tories fall short again. Is there any circumstance where anyone could see either the SNP or the Dims propping up a Tory government? Or would that be impossible to conceive?

    The LDs at least claim they will not prop up any kind of government, and while I feel something would have to give in the event they were true kingmakers, their hope of replacing Labour would I think take a hit propping up the Tories again, and what price could be extracted to make it worthwhile?

    Cyclefree said:

    Today has brought 2 more depressing reasons for hoping the Tories don’t succeed:-

    1. Farage giving them a free run in some seats.
    2. The Tories proposal to renege on what has been agreed with the Irish government about prosecuting soldiers for crimes committed during the Troubles. Bad law, bad policy, morally repulsive and shows Ireland and others that the word of the British government cannot be relied upon.

    Yuck, yuck.

    Meanwhile Labour’s vote share creeps up.

    More yuck.

    If only they could both lose.

    I’m not sure the Tories are in charge of Farage’s decision.
    Indeed. It does likely help them more than it hurts by turning off tory remainers and encouraging remain alliances (that would probably happen anyway), but his very existence at this point is a needless worry for them, so while his decision has aided them, it's not like it is a complete pact.
    I wonder if Swinson could be bought. I think there's a bit of Tory in there somewhere (excuse the pun), Brexit aside. Maybe the offer of a referendum on PR or such like?
    Other than the fact some Tories have defected to her party, what is Tory about Jo Swinson?
    Wasn't she an admirer of Thatcher? Can't think any true lefty would ever admit to that.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    tlg86 said:

    ATTENTION!

    Hilary Clinton on the One Show NOT ruling herself out of running for president.

    tlg86 said:

    ATTENTION!

    Hilary Clinton on the One Show NOT ruling herself out of running for president.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1193982094583762945
  • RobD said:

    Been in meetings all day, have I missed anything?

    Someone on PB said AV was a bit naff.
    Indeed. AV is non-proportional!
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    tlg86 said:

    ATTENTION!

    Hilary Clinton on the One Show NOT ruling herself out of running for president.

    Drutt said:

    Hilary on TheOneShow just now came as close as she could to saying she's not running.

    Did I really just type that?

    😂
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited November 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Posts saying 'at this point in the 2017 campaign the Tories were 15 points ahead' seem to have dried up :)

    I've been away at a wedding and am now just catching up.

    Current Tory lead is 11.0%. It was 17.8% at this stage of GE2017.
    That was before the dementia tax disaster Boris will not repeat and with the Brexit Party included which was not the case in 2017
    True, but the Tory vote share only fell by 3% in the period D-31 to Election Day.

    And the current polls are showing it averaging c. 39%, so 4.5% lower than the GE 2017 result (both exc. NI).

    The Tory vote fell by 4% in favour of Labour post dementia tax, the UKIP vote also collapsed in Labour's favour, the Brexit Party are now going hard in Labour areas
  • olmolm Posts: 125

    Jason said:

    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    Hypothetical here. For arguments sake, the Tories fall short again. Is there any circumstance where anyone could see either the SNP or the Dims propping up a Tory government? Or would that be impossible to conceive?

    The LDs at least claim they will not prop up any kind of government, and while I feel something would have to give in the event they were true kingmakers, their hope of replacing Labour would I think take a hit propping up the Tories again, and what price could be extracted to make it worthwhile?

    Cyclefree said:

    Today has brought 2 more depressing reasons for hoping the Tories don’t succeed:-

    1. Farage giving them a free run in some seats.
    2. The Tories proposal to renege on what has been agreed with the Irish government about prosecuting soldiers for crimes committed during the Troubles. Bad law, bad policy, morally repulsive and shows Ireland and others that the word of the British government cannot be relied upon.

    Yuck, yuck.

    Meanwhile Labour’s vote share creeps up.

    More yuck.

    If only they could both lose.

    I’m not sure the Tories are in charge of Farage’s decision.
    Indeed. It does likely help them more than it hurts by turning off tory remainers and encouraging remain alliances (that would probably happen anyway), but his very existence at this point is a needless worry for them, so while his decision has aided them, it's not like it is a complete pact.
    I wonder if Swinson could be bought. I think there's a bit of Tory in there somewhere (excuse the pun), Brexit aside. Maybe the offer of a referendum on PR or such like?
    Other than the fact some Tories have defected to her party, what is Tory about Jo Swinson?
    Some consider her economically conservative, and her positions on welfare and state-ownership are fairly 'conservative', as is her voting record.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    Twitter

    35 of the 50 smallest conservative majorities are in Leave seats. Those Conservatives no longer need worry about a pro-Leave rival. It does not guarantee Johnson a big majority but it's a bit silly to suggest this does not matter. A lot of motivated reasoning today #ge2019

    The other thing to bear in mind is that it allows the Conservatives to switch resources from defending seats and to transfer them onto attack.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    edited November 2019
    olm said:

    And so it goes on .......

    Labour Candidate Claimed Mural Isn't Anti-Semitic https://t.co/E43W05NOtT

    It isn't clearly anti-semitic.
    If you think it is, can you explain?
    I never get tired of this classic. Even some otherwise very sensible people use it. Butpeople claiming it wasn't clearly anti-semitic should ask this chap about that:

    Jeremy Corbyn has expressed "sincere regret" at failing to look more closely at an allegedly anti-Semitic mural in London before questioning its removal...

    In a statement, Mr Corbyn said he had intended to make a "general comment" about the removal of public art on the grounds of freedom of speech.

    He added: "I sincerely regret that I did not look more closely at the image I was commenting on, the contents of which are deeply disturbing and anti-Semitic.


    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-43523445

    Now, not everything Mr Corbyn says is true. But unless he was lying because he is weak, he at least thinks it was clearly anti-semitic since it was only because of poor attention that he did not spot that immediately. I think it highly unlikely he would defend himself on the grounds of poor attention being given if it was credible to use another defence.
  • HYUFD said:

    Posts saying 'at this point in the 2017 campaign the Tories were 15 points ahead' seem to have dried up :)

    I've been away at a wedding and am now just catching up.

    Current Tory lead is 11.0%. It was 17.8% at this stage of GE2017.
    That was before the dementia tax disaster Boris will not repeat and with the Brexit Party included which was not the case in 2017
    True, but the Tory vote share only fell by 3% in the period D-31 to Election Day.

    And the current polls are showing it averaging c. 39%, so 4.5% lower than the GE 2017 result (both exc. NI).

    My point being, if the Tory share holds at current levels it will be 4.5% down on last time.
    It's the hope, Ben, it's the hope :lol:
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Jason said:

    Jason said:

    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    Hypothetical here. For arguments sake, the Tories fall short again. Is there any circumstance where anyone could see either the SNP or the Dims propping up a Tory government? Or would that be impossible to conceive?

    The LDs at least claim they will not prop up any kind of government, and while I feel something would have to give in the event they were true kingmakers, their hope of replacing Labour would I think take a hit propping up the Tories again, and what price could be extracted to make it worthwhile?

    Cyclefree said:

    Today has brought 2 more depressing reasons for hoping the Tories don’t succeed:-

    1. Farage giving them a free run in some seats.
    2. The Tories proposal to renege on what has been agreed with the Irish government about prosecuting soldiers for crimes committed during the Troubles. Bad law, bad policy, morally repulsive and shows Ireland and others that the word of the British government cannot be relied upon.

    Yuck, yuck.

    Meanwhile Labour’s vote share creeps up.

    More yuck.

    If only they could both lose.

    I’m not sure the Tories are in charge of Farage’s decision.
    Indeed. It does likely help them more than it hurts by turning off tory remainers and encouraging remain alliances (that would probably happen anyway), but his very existence at this point is a needless worry for them, so while his decision has aided them, it's not like it is a complete pact.
    I wonder if Swinson could be bought. I think there's a bit of Tory in there somewhere (excuse the pun), Brexit aside. Maybe the offer of a referendum on PR or such like?
    Other than the fact some Tories have defected to her party, what is Tory about Jo Swinson?
    Wasn't she an admirer of Thatcher? Can't think any true lefty would ever admit to that.
    She wasn’t an admirer of thatcher but felt that the first female PM warranted a statue in Trafalgar Square there is a difference
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Jason said:

    Jason said:

    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    Hypothetical here. For arguments sake, the Tories fall short again. Is there any circumstance where anyone could see either the SNP or the Dims propping up a Tory government? Or would that be impossible to conceive?

    The LDs at least claim they will not prop up any kind of government, and while I feel something would have to give in the event they were true kingmakers, their hope of replacing Labour would I think take a hit propping up the Tories again, and what price could be extracted to make it worthwhile?

    Cyclefree said:

    Today has brought 2 more depressing reasons for hoping the Tories don’t succeed:-

    1. Farage giving them a free run in some seats.
    2. The Tories proposal to renege on what has been agreed with the Irish government about prosecuting soldiers for crimes committed during the Troubles. Bad law, bad policy, morally repulsive and shows Ireland and others that the word of the British government cannot be relied upon.

    Yuck, yuck.

    Meanwhile Labour’s vote share creeps up.

    More yuck.

    If only they could both lose.

    I’m not sure the Tories are in charge of Farage’s decision.
    Indeed. It does likely help them more than it hurts by turning off tory remainers and encouraging remain alliances (that would probably happen anyway), but his very existence at this point is a needless worry for them, so while his decision has aided them, it's not like it is a complete pact.
    I wonder if Swinson could be bought. I think there's a bit of Tory in there somewhere (excuse the pun), Brexit aside. Maybe the offer of a referendum on PR or such like?
    Other than the fact some Tories have defected to her party, what is Tory about Jo Swinson?
    Wasn't she an admirer of Thatcher? Can't think any true lefty would ever admit to that.
    On the other-side of the coin Michael Portillo had a picture of Harold Wilson on his wall at Cambridge by all accounts. You don't get much more Thatcherite than Portillo. Forget all his positioning after 1997, it was just to try and get back in the game...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Good grief it's Groundhog Day here again today...

    That picture of Corbyn. Which crap films are, or are not, Christmas films. The rubbish mural. Pineapple pizza. AV.

    We're caught in a constant loop.
  • Been told today my daughter's Nursery's Christmas Performance has been rescheduled because of the election. It had been booked for the 12 December but the Church is now going to be a polling station apparently so its been rescheduled to earlier in the week. We'd both booked time off work to see her first Nativity, she'd just started at the Nursery, thankfully we chose to book the whole week off so can still see it on the rescheduled date.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Good grief it's Groundhog Day here again today...

    That picture of Corbyn. Which crap films are, or are not, Christmas films. The rubbish mural. Pineapple pizza. AV.

    We're caught in a constant loop.

    Not completely, we haven't discussed IndyRef or which is the best airmiles scheme yet.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    HYUFD said:

    Posts saying 'at this point in the 2017 campaign the Tories were 15 points ahead' seem to have dried up :)

    I've been away at a wedding and am now just catching up.

    Current Tory lead is 11.0%. It was 17.8% at this stage of GE2017.
    That was before the dementia tax disaster Boris will not repeat and with the Brexit Party included which was not the case in 2017
    True, but the Tory vote share only fell by 3% in the period D-31 to Election Day.

    And the current polls are showing it averaging c. 39%, so 4.5% lower than the GE 2017 result (both exc. NI).

    My point being, if the Tory share holds at current levels it will be 4.5% down on last time.
    It's the hope, Ben, it's the hope :lol:
    Haha. Indeed it is!
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    HYUFD said:

    Those 317 seats the BXP won't be standing in include 19 which thanks to defections etc don't currently have Conservative MPs.
    I am sure the news made Anna's day

    Also TBP are not standing in Workington, I expect quite a few more marginal labour seats will see TBP candidates fail to materialise
    That is not good news, the Tories only led in Workington due to Labour voters going BXP in the recent poll there. Hopefully Farage sticks to his guns and stands in all Labour seats
    The Workington poll had tactical vote questions and Brexit Party voters broke much more to the Tories than Labour.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Fair play to you for not just posting food news stories for the Tories.

    I guess Boles is the counterpart to Woodcock and Austin, although not going for the main opponent of the person he despises.
    Good news stories. I cannot recall HYUFD posting food news stories.
    If he did it would be a turnip for the books.
    The swede smell of success!
    Now you’ve mangold my awesome pun.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    HYUFD said:

    Posts saying 'at this point in the 2017 campaign the Tories were 15 points ahead' seem to have dried up :)

    I've been away at a wedding and am now just catching up.

    Current Tory lead is 11.0%. It was 17.8% at this stage of GE2017.
    That was before the dementia tax disaster Boris will not repeat and with the Brexit Party included which was not the case in 2017
    True, but the Tory vote share only fell by 3% in the period D-31 to Election Day.

    And the current polls are showing it averaging c. 39%, so 4.5% lower than the GE 2017 result (both exc. NI).

    My point being, if the Tory share holds at current levels it will be 4.5% down on last time.
    That doesn't matter unless there's a massive sudden surge in Labour support. Labour brilliantly peeled off both Leave and Remain votes in 2017, when Brexit was in the distance. Now the opposite is true. But I get why Corbynistas are clinging on to the last election result - it's pretty much all they've got left.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    edited November 2019

    Good grief it's Groundhog Day here again today...

    That picture of Corbyn. Which crap films are, or are not, Christmas films. The rubbish mural. Pineapple pizza. AV.

    We're caught in a constant loop.

    With Labour and the Tories going to trawl through facebook and twitter accounts for old scandals to mine, old issues are going to be bumped up time and again even more than usual, and I'm helpless but to respond. Lack of impulse control.

    Frankly the mural one I think could so easily be dropped since Corbyn apologised and provided an explanation (whether one accepts it or not), so it really should have no legs left as a political issue, but for some reason people love to carry on the fight he decided not to have. I'm not sure who that is supposed to benefit. It's not him, because he conceded that one years ago!
  • olmolm Posts: 125
    edited November 2019
    olm said:

    And so it goes on .......

    Labour Candidate Claimed Mural Isn't Anti-Semitic https://t.co/E43W05NOtT

    Unsurprising since the mural isn't clearly anti-semitic.
    The artist may or may not be, but there's no evidence that it is.
    The majority of the people depicted are non Jews (christians of various denominations indeed), and are all symbolic of the 'richest people in the world' (albeit perhaps not literally).
    - Quoting Noam Chomsky stating that media manipulation has depicted Corbyn as racist and anti-semitic: he/she arguably have a reasonable case for that.
    - Stating that the public shouldn't be expected by the Royal Family to pay millions for a royal wedding: this is an obvious and reasonable argument
    - Retweeting a mis-quote of Churchill: poor show, but, well not the gravest....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Posts saying 'at this point in the 2017 campaign the Tories were 15 points ahead' seem to have dried up :)

    I've been away at a wedding and am now just catching up.

    Current Tory lead is 11.0%. It was 17.8% at this stage of GE2017.
    That was before the dementia tax disaster Boris will not repeat and with the Brexit Party included which was not the case in 2017
    True, but the Tory vote share only fell by 3% in the period D-31 to Election Day.

    And the current polls are showing it averaging c. 39%, so 4.5% lower than the GE 2017 result (both exc. NI).

    The Tory vote fell by 4% in favour of Labour post dementia tax, the UKIP vote also collapsed in Labour's favour, the Brexit Party are now going hard in Labour areas
    When was the dementia tax announced?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Posts saying 'at this point in the 2017 campaign the Tories were 15 points ahead' seem to have dried up :)

    I've been away at a wedding and am now just catching up.

    Current Tory lead is 11.0%. It was 17.8% at this stage of GE2017.
    That was before the dementia tax disaster Boris will not repeat and with the Brexit Party included which was not the case in 2017
    True, but the Tory vote share only fell by 3% in the period D-31 to Election Day.

    And the current polls are showing it averaging c. 39%, so 4.5% lower than the GE 2017 result (both exc. NI).

    The Tory vote fell by 4% in favour of Labour post dementia tax, the UKIP vote also collapsed in Labour's favour, the Brexit Party are now going hard in Labour areas
    When was the dementia tax announced?
    Around May 22nd.
  • Jason said:

    Jason said:

    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    Hypothetical here. For arguments sake, the Tories fall short again. Is there any circumstance where anyone could see either the SNP or the Dims propping up a Tory government? Or would that be impossible to conceive?

    The LDs at least claim they will not prop up any kind of government, and while I feel something would have to give in the event they were true kingmakers, their hope of replacing Labour would I think take a hit propping up the Tories again, and what price could be extracted to make it worthwhile?

    Cyclefree said:

    Today has brought 2 more depressing reasons for hoping the Tories don’t succeed:-

    1. Farage giving them a free run in some seats.
    2. The Tories proposal to renege on what has been agreed with the Irish government about prosecuting soldiers for crimes committed during the Troubles. Bad law, bad policy, morally repulsive and shows Ireland and others that the word of the British government cannot be relied upon.

    Yuck, yuck.

    Meanwhile Labour’s vote share creeps up.

    More yuck.

    If only they could both lose.

    I’m not sure the Tories are in charge of Farage’s decision.
    Indeed. It does likely help them more than it hurts by turning off tory remainers and encouraging remain alliances (that would probably happen anyway), but his very existence at this point is a needless worry for them, so while his decision has aided them, it's not like it is a complete pact.
    I wonder if Swinson could be bought. I think there's a bit of Tory in there somewhere (excuse the pun), Brexit aside. Maybe the offer of a referendum on PR or such like?
    Other than the fact some Tories have defected to her party, what is Tory about Jo Swinson?
    Wasn't she an admirer of Thatcher? Can't think any true lefty would ever admit to that.
    Blair, Brown and Shirley Williams all went there.

    And I think it was the fact she backed a statue of her as a famous high-achieving female politician.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    kle4 said:

    Now, not everything Mr Corbyn says is true.

    Understatement of the 21st century...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    How are the pollsters (and seat projectors) going to handle the BXP only standing in non-Tory seats?
  • olm said:

    Jason said:

    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    Hypothetical here. For arguments sake, the Tories fall short again. Is there any circumstance where anyone could see either the SNP or the Dims propping up a Tory government? Or would that be impossible to conceive?

    The LDs at least claim they will not prop up any kind of government, and while I feel something would have to give in the event they were true kingmakers, their hope of replacing Labour would I think take a hit propping up the Tories again, and what price could be extracted to make it worthwhile?

    Cyclefree said:

    Today has brought 2 more depressing reasons for hoping the Tories don’t succeed:-

    1. Farage giving them a free run in some seats.
    2. The Tories proposal to renege on what has been agreed with the Irish government about prosecuting soldiers for crimes committed during the Troubles. Bad law, bad policy, morally repulsive and shows Ireland and others that the word of the British government cannot be relied upon.

    Yuck, yuck.

    Meanwhile Labour’s vote share creeps up.

    More yuck.

    If only they could both lose.

    I’m not sure the Tories are in charge of Farage’s decision.
    Indeed. It does likely help them more than it hurts by turning off tory remainers and encouraging remain alliances (that would probably happen anyway), but his very existence at this point is a needless worry for them, so while his decision has aided them, it's not like it is a complete pact.
    I wonder if Swinson could be bought. I think there's a bit of Tory in there somewhere (excuse the pun), Brexit aside. Maybe the offer of a referendum on PR or such like?
    Other than the fact some Tories have defected to her party, what is Tory about Jo Swinson?
    Some consider her economically conservative, and her positions on welfare and state-ownership are fairly 'conservative', as is her voting record.
    I’m not seeing anything but traditional soft Left Lib Dem views in both her policy and her voting record.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    And so it goes on .......

    Labour Candidate Claimed Mural Isn't Anti-Semitic https://t.co/E43W05NOtT

    Some people are really stupid with their Internet output given they want to be MPs! I suppose it depends where the seat they are contesting, if it was Finchley and Golders green then they would be removed but if it is somewhere like Bradford West or Birmingham Hall Green then being associated with anti-Semitic stuff will probably do them no harm.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    How are the pollsters (and seat projectors) going to handle the BXP only standing in non-Tory seats?

    If you get asked a postcode it will be relatively easy.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Posts saying 'at this point in the 2017 campaign the Tories were 15 points ahead' seem to have dried up :)

    I've been away at a wedding and am now just catching up.

    Current Tory lead is 11.0%. It was 17.8% at this stage of GE2017.
    That was before the dementia tax disaster Boris will not repeat and with the Brexit Party included which was not the case in 2017
    True, but the Tory vote share only fell by 3% in the period D-31 to Election Day.

    And the current polls are showing it averaging c. 39%, so 4.5% lower than the GE 2017 result (both exc. NI).

    The Tory vote fell by 4% in favour of Labour post dementia tax, the UKIP vote also collapsed in Labour's favour, the Brexit Party are now going hard in Labour areas
    When was the dementia tax announced?
    I've forgotten
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Fenman said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Posts saying 'at this point in the 2017 campaign the Tories were 15 points ahead' seem to have dried up :)

    I've been away at a wedding and am now just catching up.

    Current Tory lead is 11.0%. It was 17.8% at this stage of GE2017.
    That was before the dementia tax disaster Boris will not repeat and with the Brexit Party included which was not the case in 2017
    True, but the Tory vote share only fell by 3% in the period D-31 to Election Day.

    And the current polls are showing it averaging c. 39%, so 4.5% lower than the GE 2017 result (both exc. NI).

    The Tory vote fell by 4% in favour of Labour post dementia tax, the UKIP vote also collapsed in Labour's favour, the Brexit Party are now going hard in Labour areas
    When was the dementia tax announced?
    I've forgotten
    lol :)
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124

    Been in meetings all day, have I missed anything?

    Drutt said:

    Been in meetings all day, have I missed anything?

    We're all just settling down to watch a nice Christmas film. Yippee kiy-yay.
    The Empire Strikes Back? I mean that film has more snow in it than Die Hard.
    Ho.
    Ho.
    Ho.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    Good grief it's Groundhog Day here again today...

    That picture of Corbyn. Which crap films are, or are not, Christmas films. The rubbish mural. Pineapple pizza. AV.

    We're caught in a constant loop.

    Almost like Groundhog Day, in fact.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    RobD said:

    How are the pollsters (and seat projectors) going to handle the BXP only standing in non-Tory seats?

    If you get asked a postcode it will be relatively easy.
    What I am thinking is: say the BXP are polling 7% overall, what does that mean for seat projections?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    RobD said:

    How are the pollsters (and seat projectors) going to handle the BXP only standing in non-Tory seats?

    If you get asked a postcode it will be relatively easy.
    I have done two recent YouGov opinion polls asking me about how I would vote if X or Y (They actually named names) stood in the constituency I live within. They also brought up tactical voting.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    viewcode said:

    Good grief it's Groundhog Day here again today...

    That picture of Corbyn. Which crap films are, or are not, Christmas films. The rubbish mural. Pineapple pizza. AV.

    We're caught in a constant loop.

    Almost like Groundhog Day, in fact.
    Didn't I say that already? :wink:
  • Charles said:

    kinabalu said:

    Charles said:

    whatever happened to the principle that you don't interfere with domestic politics in another country?

    Has there ever been such an open goal? I almost can't be bothered because it's slightly embarrassing but I guess I have to. So here goes -

    The best person to direct the question to is that US president guy who rings up London radio stations and straight out tells the listeners how to vote in our general election.
    I know Trump is a jerk. Clinton should be better than him.
    One of the many things that could go horribly wrong for Boris in the next 31 days would be Trump running amok during the NATO conference and proclaiming his full support.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Today has brought 2 more depressing reasons for hoping the Tories don’t succeed:-

    1. Farage giving them a free run in some seats.
    2. The Tories proposal to renege on what has been agreed with the Irish government about prosecuting soldiers for crimes committed during the Troubles. Bad law, bad policy, morally repulsive and shows Ireland and others that the word of the British government cannot be relied upon.

    Yuck, yuck.

    Meanwhile Labour’s vote share creeps up.

    More yuck.

    If only they could both lose.

    I’m not sure the Tories are in charge of Farage’s decision.
    I am more cynical than you. Cui bono? The consensus seems to be the Tories. And I’m supposed to believe the Tories had absolutely nothing to do with it at all. Hmm....

    Jonathon was saying the same thing earlier, and it seems like a bizarre obsession to me. What difference does it make if they did? They don't get everything that they want by the fact of him standing anywhere, since not everyone agrees on cui bono why are you certain the Tories are the ones who will, even if they did have discussions with him what difference does that make as either they swayed him to step down or he chose to, and it leads to the same outcome. So really, what's with all this 'hmm'ing where its presented as some tremendous potential reveltation if the Tories and Farage did discuss things with him? It's positive or negatives depending on what side you stand aren't affected either way, yet its presented like this would be a killer fact.

    Not presenting it as some killer fact merely my opinion that the Conservative party as was has died and been replaced by Brexit/UKIP. I find that depressing because there was something to admire about the genuine Conservative party. Whereas what has replaced it is mean-minded, incoherent and seems to value nothing about what is best about Britain.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Fair play to you for not just posting food news stories for the Tories.

    I guess Boles is the counterpart to Woodcock and Austin, although not going for the main opponent of the person he despises.
    Good news stories. I cannot recall HYUFD posting food news stories.
    If he did it would be a turnip for the books.
    The swede smell of success!
    Now you’ve mangold my awesome pun.
    Give up. Beet surrender.
  • I’ve just backed Labour most seats at 16s.

    At some point in the next 4 weeks there’ll be a polling panic, which the media will have every interest in talking up.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    RobD said:

    How are the pollsters (and seat projectors) going to handle the BXP only standing in non-Tory seats?

    If you get asked a postcode it will be relatively easy.
    What I am thinking is: say the BXP are polling 7% overall, what does that mean for seat projections?
    They can surely take that into account. For example, the SNP don't stand everywhere, yet they are modeled in the various seat projections.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    I put in the same figures from 2017 into the electoral calculator (swapping BXP and UKIP figures) just for a bit of fun.

    Result - Tory majority of 18.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Fair play to you for not just posting food news stories for the Tories.

    I guess Boles is the counterpart to Woodcock and Austin, although not going for the main opponent of the person he despises.
    Good news stories. I cannot recall HYUFD posting food news stories.
    If he did it would be a turnip for the books.
    The swede smell of success!
    Now you’ve mangold my awesome pun.
    Give up. Beet surrender.
    I think it's quite amusing how many prospective parliamentary candidates are seeing their parsnip them in the bum!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited November 2019

    And so it goes on .......

    Labour Candidate Claimed Mural Isn't Anti-Semitic https://t.co/E43W05NOtT


    And there was me thinking we hadn't had the daily Labour anti-semite scandal...time to reset the clock.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    https://order-order.com/2019/11/11/lib-dem-candidate-repeatedly-used-n-word-rtard-twitter/

    Vice-President of the Liberal Democrat Campaign for Race Equality… no less
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Cyclefree said:



    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Today has brought 2 more depressing reasons for hoping the Tories don’t succeed:-

    1. Farage giving them a free run in some seats.
    2. The Tories proposal to renege on what has been agreed with the Irish government about prosecuting soldiers for crimes committed during the Troubles. Bad law, bad policy, morally repulsive and shows Ireland and others that the word of the British government cannot be relied upon.

    Yuck, yuck.

    Meanwhile Labour’s vote share creeps up.

    More yuck.

    If only they could both lose.

    I’m not sure the Tories are in charge of Farage’s decision.
    I am more cynical than you. Cui bono? The consensus seems to be the Tories. And I’m supposed to believe the Tories had absolutely nothing to do with it at all. Hmm....

    Jonathon was saying the same thing earlier, and it seems like a bizarre obsession to me. What difference does it make if they did? They don't get everything that they want by the fact of him standing anywhere, since not everyone agrees on cui bono why are you certain the Tories are the ones who will, even if they did have discussions with him what difference does that make as either they swayed him to step down or he chose to, and it leads to the same outcome. So really, what's with all this 'hmm'ing where its presented as some tremendous potential reveltation if the Tories and Farage did discuss things with him? It's positive or negatives depending on what side you stand aren't affected either way, yet its presented like this would be a killer fact.

    Not presenting it as some killer fact merely my opinion that the Conservative party as was has died and been replaced by Brexit/UKIP. I find that depressing because there was something to admire about the genuine Conservative party. Whereas what has replaced it is mean-minded, incoherent and seems to value nothing about what is best about Britain.
    “The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.”
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    viewcode said:

    Good grief it's Groundhog Day here again today...

    That picture of Corbyn. Which crap films are, or are not, Christmas films. The rubbish mural. Pineapple pizza. AV.

    We're caught in a constant loop.

    Almost like Groundhog Day, in fact.
    Didn't I say that already? :wink:
    :)
  • bunncobunnco Posts: 169
    No10 Spad James Wild selected for Conservatives in North West Norfolk

    Bunnco - Your man on the spot
  • RobCLRobCL Posts: 23
    Flick Drummond elected cons PPC Meon Vallet
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Fair play to you for not just posting food news stories for the Tories.

    I guess Boles is the counterpart to Woodcock and Austin, although not going for the main opponent of the person he despises.
    Good news stories. I cannot recall HYUFD posting food news stories.
    If he did it would be a turnip for the books.
    The swede smell of success!
    Now you’ve mangold my awesome pun.
    Give up. Beet surrender.
    I think it's quite amusing how many prospective parliamentary candidates are seeing their parsnip them in the bum!
    Now that is impressive. I was trying to think how to work parsnips in and I couldn’t.

    I think you’ve got to the root of the matter with that one.

    I shall therefore leaf you in peace.

    Good night.
  • HYUFD said:

    Jason said:

    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    Hypothetical here. For arguments sake, the Tories fall short again. Is there any circumstance where anyone could see either the SNP or the Dims propping up a Tory government? Or would that be impossible to conceive?

    The LDs at least claim they will not prop up any kind of government, and while I feel something would have to give in the event they were true kingmakers, their hope of replacing Labour would I think take a hit propping up the Tories again, and what price could be extracted to make it worthwhile?

    Cyclefree said:

    Today has brought 2 more depressing reasons for hoping the Tories don’t succeed:-

    1. Farage giving them a free run in some seats.
    2. The Tories proposal to renege on what has been agreed with the Irish government about prosecuting soldiers for crimes committed during the Troubles. Bad law, bad policy, morally repulsive and shows Ireland and others that the word of the British government cannot be relied upon.

    Yuck, yuck.

    Meanwhile Labour’s vote share creeps up.

    More yuck.

    If only they could both lose.

    I’m not sure the Tories are in charge of Farage’s decision.
    Indeed. It does likely help them more than it hurts by turning off tory remainers and encouraging remain alliances (that would probably happen anyway), but his very existence at this point is a needless worry for them, so while his decision has aided them, it's not like it is a complete pact.
    I wonder if Swinson could be bought. I think there's a bit of Tory in there somewhere (excuse the pun), Brexit aside. Maybe the offer of a referendum on PR or such like?
    Other than the fact some Tories have defected to her party, what is Tory about Jo Swinson?
    She hates the SNP
    The Tories and the LDs the parties of hate?

    Ok.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    Cyclefree said:



    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Today has brought 2 more depressing reasons for hoping the Tories don’t succeed:-

    1. Farage giving them a free run in some seats.
    2. The Tories proposal to renege on what has been agreed with the Irish government about prosecuting soldiers for crimes committed during the Troubles. Bad law, bad policy, morally repulsive and shows Ireland and others that the word of the British government cannot be relied upon.

    Yuck, yuck.

    Meanwhile Labour’s vote share creeps up.

    More yuck.

    If only they could both lose.

    I’m not sure the Tories are in charge of Farage’s decision.
    I am more cynical than you. Cui bono? The consensus seems to be the Tories. And I’m supposed to believe the Tories had absolutely nothing to do with it at all. Hmm....

    Jonathon was saying the same thing earlier, and it seems like a bizarre obsession to me. What difference does it make if they did? They don't get everything that they want by the fact of him standing anywhere, since not everyone agrees on cui bono why are you certain the Tories are the ones who will, even if they did have discussions with him what difference does that make as either they swayed him to step down or he chose to, and it leads to the same outcome. So really, what's with all this 'hmm'ing where its presented as some tremendous potential reveltation if the Tories and Farage did discuss things with him? It's positive or negatives depending on what side you stand aren't affected either way, yet its presented like this would be a killer fact.

    Not presenting it as some killer fact merely my opinion that the Conservative party as was has died and been replaced by Brexit/UKIP. I find that depressing because there was something to admire about the genuine Conservative party. Whereas what has replaced it is mean-minded, incoherent and seems to value nothing about what is best about Britain.
    The reports of the death of the Conservative Party have been greatly exaggerated.

    The new intake will be very much One Nation Conservatives.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    kle4 said:

    Good grief it's Groundhog Day here again today...

    That picture of Corbyn. Which crap films are, or are not, Christmas films. The rubbish mural. Pineapple pizza. AV.

    We're caught in a constant loop.

    With Labour and the Tories going to trawl through facebook and twitter accounts for old scandals to mine, old issues are going to be bumped up time and again even more than usual, and I'm helpless but to respond. Lack of impulse control.

    Frankly the mural one I think could so easily be dropped since Corbyn apologised and provided an explanation (whether one accepts it or not), so it really should have no legs left as a political issue, but for some reason people love to carry on the fight he decided not to have. I'm not sure who that is supposed to benefit. It's not him, because he conceded that one years ago!
    Corbyn agreed it was anti semitic - some of his candidate mp's and posters on here seem not to have got the message.
  • Jonathan said:

    Cyclefree said:



    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Today has brought 2 more depressing reasons for hoping the Tories don’t succeed:-

    1. Farage giving them a free run in some seats.
    2. The Tories proposal to renege on what has been agreed with the Irish government about prosecuting soldiers for crimes committed during the Troubles. Bad law, bad policy, morally repulsive and shows Ireland and others that the word of the British government cannot be relied upon.

    Yuck, yuck.

    Meanwhile Labour’s vote share creeps up.

    More yuck.

    If only they could both lose.

    I’m not sure the Tories are in charge of Farage’s decision.
    I am more cynical than you. Cui bono? The consensus seems to be the Tories. And I’m supposed to believe the Tories had absolutely nothing to do with it at all. Hmm....

    Jonathon was saying the same thing earlier, and it seems like a bizarre obsession to me. What difference does it make if they did? They don't get everything that they want by the fact of him standing anywhere, since not everyone agrees on cui bono why are you certain the Tories are the ones who will, even if they did have discussions with him what difference does that make as either they swayed him to step down or he chose to, and it leads to the same outcome. So really, what's with all this 'hmm'ing where its presented as some tremendous potential reveltation if the Tories and Farage did discuss things with him? It's positive or negatives depending on what side you stand aren't affected either way, yet its presented like this would be a killer fact.

    Not presenting it as some killer fact merely my opinion that the Conservative party as was has died and been replaced by Brexit/UKIP. I find that depressing because there was something to admire about the genuine Conservative party. Whereas what has replaced it is mean-minded, incoherent and seems to value nothing about what is best about Britain.
    “The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.”
    You’ve posted that three times today.

    It’s obviously not cutting through as much as you hoped it would.
  • I too remain concerned that at some point there will be a polling panic as Labour starts to rise in the polls. Probably for no particular reason....

    However, the level of hostility towards Corbyn and his band of mad-hatter, unsavoury Marxists is now profound, widespread and deeply felt across much of the country, even amongst Labour voters. I really struggle to see what is going to change that in 4 weeks. People have had three YEARS to reach their conclusions. Corbyn is no longer a blank canvass. I cant see what is going to change.

    But happy to hear suggestions....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited November 2019
    Floater said:

    https://order-order.com/2019/11/11/lib-dem-candidate-repeatedly-used-n-word-rtard-twitter/

    Vice-President of the Liberal Democrat Campaign for Race Equality… no less

    From 2009 / 2010 and only now does he make his account private.

    What is more shocking than the dodgy language from 10 years ago, the fact that anybody with a half a brain would realise that people are going to go through all your old tweets, so not having cleansed them when you previously stood in 2017 means you have to be a bit dense or has he might put it R####ded.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    RobCL said:

    Flick Drummond elected cons PPC Meon Vallet

    Another former moderate (campaigned for Remain in 2016) MP selected for safe seat.
  • Can anyone suggest which seats Labour will pick up in this election? They may reclaim the odd seat lost to a defectee/run off by Momentum but even somewhere like Birkenhead may back Frank Field as an independent.

    I expect them to lose a swathe of seats in the North East, Scotland, North West, Midlands. Where are they winning new seats? That puts them back into 220 and below range surely.

    The question is who picks those seats up. Some to the Tories yes, but they will also lose seats in Scotland and across the south. I'm expecting LibDem gains targeted in all kinds of interesting places (we aren't seeing the back of Chuka, Luciana, Sarah Wollaston. Even Sam Gyimah could pull it off.

    As in Spain where "lets solve the hung parliament" election produced a different hung parliament, I expect a no bloody chance of anyone cobbling together a majority. The LibDems and the SNP are unlikely to back either side (even Labour's independence pledge unlikely to sway Sturgeon who can impose it anyway), leaving either Johnson or Corbyn trying to manage a very minority government.

    Or perhaps Corbyn has to go as part of even a confidence and supply deal. To be replaced by the leave/remain city/working class man/woman Janus dream team of Pidcock and Burgon.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    I too remain concerned that at some point there will be a polling panic as Labour starts to rise in the polls. Probably for no particular reason....

    However, the level of hostility towards Corbyn and his band of mad-hatter, unsavoury Marxists is now profound, widespread and deeply felt across much of the country, even amongst Labour voters. I really struggle to see what is going to change that in 4 weeks. People have had three YEARS to reach their conclusions. Corbyn is no longer a blank canvass. I cant see what is going to change.

    But happy to hear suggestions....

    I am sure we heard the same two years ago.

    I think what could change things are the manifestos, that is what started the movement last time.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291

    Cyclefree said:



    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Today has brought 2 more depressing reasons for hoping the Tories don’t succeed:-

    1. Farage giving them a free run in some seats.
    2. The Tories proposal to renege on what has been agreed with the Irish government about prosecuting soldiers for crimes committed during the Troubles. Bad law, bad policy, morally repulsive and shows Ireland and others that the word of the British government cannot be relied upon.

    Yuck, yuck.

    Meanwhile Labour’s vote share creeps up.

    More yuck.

    If only they could both lose.

    I’m not sure the Tories are in charge of Farage’s decision.
    I am more cynical than you. Cui bono? The consensus seems to be the Tories. And I’m supposed to believe the Tories had absolutely nothing to do with it at all. Hmm....

    Jonathon was saying the same thing earlier, and it seems like a bizarre obsession to me. What difference does it make if they did? They don't get everything that they want by the fact of him standing anywhere, since not everyone agrees on cui bono why are you certain the Tories are the ones who will, even if they did have discussions with him what difference does that make as either they swayed him to step down or he chose to, and it leads to the same outcome. So really, what's with all this 'hmm'ing where its presented as some tremendous potential reveltation if the Tories and Farage did discuss things with him? It's positive or negatives depending on what side you stand aren't affected either way, yet its presented like this would be a killer fact.

    Not presenting it as some killer fact merely my opinion that the Conservative party as was has died and been replaced by Brexit/UKIP. I find that depressing because there was something to admire about the genuine Conservative party. Whereas what has replaced it is mean-minded, incoherent and seems to value nothing about what is best about Britain.
    The reports of the death of the Conservative Party have been greatly exaggerated.

    The new intake will be very much One Nation Conservatives.
    As tonight’s selection of Flick Drummond goes to show. The third moderate former MP to be chosen in a safe seat.
  • And so it goes on .......

    Labour Candidate Claimed Mural Isn't Anti-Semitic https://t.co/E43W05NOtT

    Some people are really stupid with their Internet output given they want to be MPs! I suppose it depends where the seat they are contesting, if it was Finchley and Golders green then they would be removed but if it is somewhere like Bradford West or Birmingham Hall Green then being associated with anti-Semitic stuff will probably do them no harm.
    Yeah isn't it terrible when people are slandered on the basis of their race or religious affiliation.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Fair play to you for not just posting food news stories for the Tories.

    I guess Boles is the counterpart to Woodcock and Austin, although not going for the main opponent of the person he despises.
    Good news stories. I cannot recall HYUFD posting food news stories.
    If he did it would be a turnip for the books.
    The swede smell of success!
    Now you’ve mangold my awesome pun.
    Give up. Beet surrender.
    I think it's quite amusing how many prospective parliamentary candidates are seeing their parsnip them in the bum!
    Now that is impressive. I was trying to think how to work parsnips in and I couldn’t.

    I think you’ve got to the root of the matter with that one.

    I shall therefore leaf you in peace.

    Good night.
    I do my best to salsify. :smile:
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    I’ve just backed Labour most seats at 16s.

    At some point in the next 4 weeks there’ll be a polling panic, which the media will have every interest in talking up.

    Indeed, the media will call it a "wobble". Mrs Thatcher had a "wobbly Wednesday" in 1987 and later in 1992 I remember the polling suddenly dived for the Tories and Labour were 7 points ahead. When Boris has a wobble the media will talk about him reinvigorating his campaign team or refocusing the message. I suppose the interesting variable in this election is how the Brexit supporting media will report the wobble. They might even ignore it! :wink:
  • olmolm Posts: 125
    edited November 2019
    Floater said:

    kle4 said:

    Good grief it's Groundhog Day here again today...

    That picture of Corbyn. Which crap films are, or are not, Christmas films. The rubbish mural. Pineapple pizza. AV.

    We're caught in a constant loop.

    With Labour and the Tories going to trawl through facebook and twitter accounts for old scandals to mine, old issues are going to be bumped up time and again even more than usual, and I'm helpless but to respond. Lack of impulse control.

    Frankly the mural one I think could so easily be dropped since Corbyn apologised and provided an explanation (whether one accepts it or not), so it really should have no legs left as a political issue, but for some reason people love to carry on the fight he decided not to have. I'm not sure who that is supposed to benefit. It's not him, because he conceded that one years ago!
    Corbyn agreed it was anti semitic - some of his candidate mp's and posters on here seem not to have got the message.
    1) Corbyn agreeing that, whether for pragmatic reasons, or not, doesn't make or prove it anti-semitic.
    2) Since you're likely to be including me when referring to 'posters on here', I have to repeat, my point is that the mural is not *obviously* anti-semitic.
    3) Since you appear to think it is, it would be interesting to know what exactly about it is anti-semitic about it and apparent?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    Floater said:

    https://order-order.com/2019/11/11/lib-dem-candidate-repeatedly-used-n-word-rtard-twitter/

    Vice-President of the Liberal Democrat Campaign for Race Equality… no less

    From 2009 / 2010 and only now does he make his account private.

    What is more shocking than the dodgy language from 10 years ago, the fact that anybody with a half a brain would realise that people are going to go through all your old tweets, so not having cleansed them when you previously stood in 2017 means you have to be a bit dense or has he might put it R####ded.
    Using the 'N' word in Thurrock should give him a good chance
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Cyclefree said:



    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Today has brought 2 more depressing reasons for hoping the Tories don’t succeed:-

    1. Farage giving them a free run in some seats.
    2. The Tories proposal to renege on what has been agreed with the Irish government about prosecuting soldiers for crimes committed during the Troubles. Bad law, bad policy, morally repulsive and shows Ireland and others that the word of the British government cannot be relied upon.

    Yuck, yuck.

    Meanwhile Labour’s vote share creeps up.

    More yuck.

    If only they could both lose.

    I’m not sure the Tories are in charge of Farage’s decision.
    I am more cynical than you. Cui bono? The consensus seems to be the Tories. And I’m supposed to believe the Tories had absolutely nothing to do with it at all. Hmm....

    Jonathon was saying the same thing earlier, and it seems like a bizarre obsession to me. What difference does it make if they did? They don't get everything that they want by the fact of him standing anywhere, since not everyone agrees on cui bono why are you certain the Tories are the ones who will, even if they did have discussions with him what difference does that make as either they swayed him to step down or he chose to, and it leads to the same outcome. So really, what's with all this 'hmm'ing where its presented as some tremendous potential reveltation if the Tories and Farage did discuss things with him? It's positive or negatives depending on what side you stand aren't affected either way, yet its presented like this would be a killer fact.

    Not presenting it as some killer fact merely my opinion that the Conservative party as was has died and been replaced by Brexit/UKIP. I find that depressing because there was something to admire about the genuine Conservative party. Whereas what has replaced it is mean-minded, incoherent and seems to value nothing about what is best about Britain.
    The reports of the death of the Conservative Party have been greatly exaggerated.

    The new intake will be very much One Nation Conservatives.
    LOL Marky. So exactly how did the One Nation conservatives out Farage Farage. 😆
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Fair play to you for not just posting food news stories for the Tories.

    I guess Boles is the counterpart to Woodcock and Austin, although not going for the main opponent of the person he despises.
    Good news stories. I cannot recall HYUFD posting food news stories.
    If he did it would be a turnip for the books.
    The swede smell of success!
    Now you’ve mangold my awesome pun.
    Give up. Beet surrender.
    I think it's quite amusing how many prospective parliamentary candidates are seeing their parsnip them in the bum!
    Now that is impressive. I was trying to think how to work parsnips in and I couldn’t.

    I think you’ve got to the root of the matter with that one.

    I shall therefore leaf you in peace.

    Good night.
    I do my best to salsify. :smile:
    You're a punning manioc.....
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Cyclefree said:



    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Today has brought 2 more depressing reasons for hoping the Tories don’t succeed:-

    1. Farage giving them a free run in some seats.
    2. The Tories proposal to renege on what has been agreed with the Irish government about prosecuting soldiers for crimes committed during the Troubles. Bad law, bad policy, morally repulsive and shows Ireland and others that the word of the British government cannot be relied upon.

    Yuck, yuck.

    Meanwhile Labour’s vote share creeps up.

    More yuck.

    If only they could both lose.

    I’m not sure the Tories are in charge of Farage’s decision.
    I am more cynical than you. Cui bono? The consensus seems to be the Tories. And I’m supposed to believe the Tories had absolutely nothing to do with it at all. Hmm....

    Jonathon was saying the same thing earlier, and it seems like a bizarre obsession to me. What difference does it make if they did? They don't get everything that they want by the fact of him standing anywhere, since not everyone agrees on cui bono why are you certain the Tories are the ones who will, even if they did have discussions with him what difference does that make as either they swayed him to step down or he chose to, and it leads to the same outcome. So really, what's with all this 'hmm'ing where its presented as some tremendous potential reveltation if the Tories and Farage did discuss things with him? It's positive or negatives depending on what side you stand aren't affected either way, yet its presented like this would be a killer fact.

    Not presenting it as some killer fact merely my opinion that the Conservative party as was has died and been replaced by Brexit/UKIP. I find that depressing because there was something to admire about the genuine Conservative party. Whereas what has replaced it is mean-minded, incoherent and seems to value nothing about what is best about Britain.
    The reports of the death of the Conservative Party have been greatly exaggerated.

    The new intake will be very much One Nation Conservatives.
    There is some prospect of a Boris pivot to the centre if he gets a decent majority. The Trump pivot never happened because Trump is an authentically mad bastard seriously invested in his own delusions. Boris is only invested in the success of Boris, and even if he is elected by right wing bastards he is likely to be more comfortable governing as a cuddly, one nation, Cameron before the crash style tory if his party will let him get away with it.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    Cyclefree said:



    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Today has brought 2 more depressing reasons for hoping the Tories don’t succeed:-

    1. Farage giving them a free run in some seats.
    2. The Tories proposal to renege on what has been agreed with the Irish government about prosecuting soldiers for crimes committed during the Troubles. Bad law, bad policy, morally repulsive and shows Ireland and others that the word of the British government cannot be relied upon.

    Yuck, yuck.

    Meanwhile Labour’s vote share creeps up.

    More yuck.

    If only they could both lose.

    I’m not sure the Tories are in charge of Farage’s decision.
    I am more cynical than you. Cui bono? The consensus seems to be the Tories. And I’m supposed to believe the Tories had absolutely nothing to do with it at all. Hmm....

    Jonathon was saying the same thing earlier, and it seems like a bizarre obsession to me. What difference does it make if they did? They don't get everything that they want by the fact of him standing anywhere, since not everyone agrees on cui bono why are you certain the Tories are the ones who will, even if they did have discussions with him what difference does that make as either they swayed him to step down or he chose to, and it leads to the same outcome. So really, what's with all this 'hmm'ing where its presented as some tremendous potential reveltation if the Tories and Farage did discuss things with him? It's positive or negatives depending on what side you stand aren't affected either way, yet its presented like this would be a killer fact.

    Not presenting it as some killer fact merely my opinion that the Conservative party as was has died and been replaced by Brexit/UKIP. I find that depressing because there was something to admire about the genuine Conservative party. Whereas what has replaced it is mean-minded, incoherent and seems to value nothing about what is best about Britain.
    The reports of the death of the Conservative Party have been greatly exaggerated.

    The new intake will be very much One Nation Conservatives.
    LOL!! What nation is that?
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    I too remain concerned that at some point there will be a polling panic as Labour starts to rise in the polls. Probably for no particular reason....

    However, the level of hostility towards Corbyn and his band of mad-hatter, unsavoury Marxists is now profound, widespread and deeply felt across much of the country, even amongst Labour voters. I really struggle to see what is going to change that in 4 weeks. People have had three YEARS to reach their conclusions. Corbyn is no longer a blank canvass. I cant see what is going to change.

    But happy to hear suggestions....

    Labour are hoping and praying Boris implodes in the TV debates - but I don't see where they get the evidence from that he's terrible on TV, or during debates. I also don't think Corbyn is half the performer they think he is. I was watching those ghastly stage managed q&a sessions where Corbyn had to write down the questions, and had to have a 'handler' begging audience members not to boo the attending media (imagine him at PMQs for a moment, or in a moment of national emergency).

    Labour are entering a phase where wishful thinking is starting to replace reality.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Jonathan said:

    Cyclefree said:



    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Today has brought 2 more depressing reasons for hoping the Tories don’t succeed:-

    1. Farage giving them a free run in some seats.
    2. The Tories proposal to renege on what has been agreed with the Irish government about prosecuting soldiers for crimes committed during the Troubles. Bad law, bad policy, morally repulsive and shows Ireland and others that the word of the British government cannot be relied upon.

    Yuck, yuck.

    Meanwhile Labour’s vote share creeps up.

    More yuck.

    If only they could both lose.

    I’m not sure the Tories are in charge of Farage’s decision.
    I am more cynical than you. Cui bono? The consensus seems to be the Tories. And I’m supposed to believe the Tories had absolutely nothing to do with it at all. Hmm....

    Jonathon was saying the same thing earlier, and it seems like a bizarre obsession to me. What difference does it make if they did? They don't get everything that they want by the fact of him standing anywhere, since not everyone agrees on cui bono why are you certain the Tories are the ones who will, even if they did have discussions with him what difference does that make as either they swayed him to step down or he chose to, and it leads to the same outcome. So really, what's with all this 'hmm'ing where its presented as some tremendous potential reveltation if the Tories and Farage did discuss things with him? It's positive or negatives depending on what side you stand aren't affected either way, yet its presented like this would be a killer fact.

    Not presenting it as some killer fact merely my opinion that the Conservative party as was has died and been replaced by Brexit/UKIP. I find that depressing because there was something to admire about the genuine Conservative party. Whereas what has replaced it is mean-minded, incoherent and seems to value nothing about what is best about Britain.
    “The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.”
    You’ve posted that three times today.

    It’s obviously not cutting through as much as you hoped it would.
    I love that quote, if your saying others don’t post repetitive shite on PB you have not been paying attention.

    At least each and every post you offer is a scintillating original insight.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Cyclefree said:

    Today has brought 2 more depressing reasons for hoping the Tories don’t succeed:-

    1. Farage giving them a free run in some seats.
    2. The Tories proposal to renege on what has been agreed with the Irish government about prosecuting soldiers for crimes committed during the Troubles. Bad law, bad policy, morally repulsive and shows Ireland and others that the word of the British government cannot be relied upon.

    Yuck, yuck.

    Meanwhile Labour’s vote share creeps up.

    More yuck.

    If only they could both lose.

    I’m not sure the Tories are in charge of Farage’s decision.
    I’m damn sure There’s clearly been back room talking all week, if he turned down the Peerage Farage got nothing out of the negotiation except Boris putting certain lines into a snapchat message that allows Farage to climb down.

    That’s how it happened.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Cyclefree said:



    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Today has brought 2 more depressing reasons for hoping the Tories don’t succeed:-

    1. Farage giving them a free run in some seats.
    2. The Tories proposal to renege on what has been agreed with the Irish government about prosecuting soldiers for crimes committed during the Troubles. Bad law, bad policy, morally repulsive and shows Ireland and others that the word of the British government cannot be relied upon.

    Yuck, yuck.

    Meanwhile Labour’s vote share creeps up.

    More yuck.

    If only they could both lose.

    I’m not sure the Tories are in charge of Farage’s decision.
    I am more cynical than you. Cui bono? The consensus seems to be the Tories. And I’m supposed to believe the Tories had absolutely nothing to do with it at all. Hmm....

    Jonathon was saying the same thing earlier, and it seems like a bizarre obsession to me. What difference does it make if they did? They don't get everything that they want by the fact of him standing anywhere, since not everyone agrees on cui bono why are you certain the Tories are the ones who will, even if they did have discussions with him what difference does that make as either they swayed him to step down or he chose to, and it leads to the same outcome. So really, what's with all this 'hmm'ing where its presented as some tremendous potential reveltation if the Tories and Farage did discuss things with him? It's positive or negatives depending on what side you stand aren't affected either way, yet its presented like this would be a killer fact.

    Not presenting it as some killer fact merely my opinion that the Conservative party as was has died and been replaced by Brexit/UKIP. I find that depressing because there was something to admire about the genuine Conservative party. Whereas what has replaced it is mean-minded, incoherent and seems to value nothing about what is best about Britain.
    The reports of the death of the Conservative Party have been greatly exaggerated.

    The new intake will be very much One Nation Conservatives.
    There is some prospect of a Boris pivot to the centre if he gets a decent majority. The Trump pivot never happened because Trump is an authentically mad bastard seriously invested in his own delusions. Boris is only invested in the success of Boris, and even if he is elected by right wing bastards he is likely to be more comfortable governing as a cuddly, one nation, Cameron before the crash style tory if his party will let him get away with it.
    If Boris gets a majority and delivers Brexit, of course they will.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    olm said:

    Floater said:

    kle4 said:

    Good grief it's Groundhog Day here again today...

    That picture of Corbyn. Which crap films are, or are not, Christmas films. The rubbish mural. Pineapple pizza. AV.

    We're caught in a constant loop.

    With Labour and the Tories going to trawl through facebook and twitter accounts for old scandals to mine, old issues are going to be bumped up time and again even more than usual, and I'm helpless but to respond. Lack of impulse control.

    Frankly the mural one I think could so easily be dropped since Corbyn apologised and provided an explanation (whether one accepts it or not), so it really should have no legs left as a political issue, but for some reason people love to carry on the fight he decided not to have. I'm not sure who that is supposed to benefit. It's not him, because he conceded that one years ago!
    Corbyn agreed it was anti semitic - some of his candidate mp's and posters on here seem not to have got the message.
    1) Corbyn agreeing that, whether for pragmatic reasons, or not, doesn't make or prove it anti-semitic.
    2) Since you're likely to be including me when referring to 'posters on here', I have to repeat, my point is that the mural is not *obviously* anti-semitic.
    3) Since you appear to think it is, it would be interesting to know what exactly about it is anti-semitic about it and apparent?
    Rabbinical looking figures engaging the international Jewish financier trope.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Cyclefree said:



    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Today has brought 2 more depressing reasons for hoping the Tories don’t succeed:-

    bad policy, morally repulsive and shows Ireland and others that the word of the British government cannot be relied upon.

    Yuck, yuck.

    Meanwhile Labour’s vote share creeps up.

    More yuck.

    If only they could both lose.

    I’m not sure the Tories are in charge of Farage’s decision.
    I am more cynical than you. Cui bono? The consensus seems to be the Tories. And I’m supposed to believe the Tories had absolutely nothing to do with it at all. Hmm....

    Jonathon was saying the same thing earlier, and it seems like a bizarre obsession to me. What difference does it make if they did? They don't get everything that they want by the fact of him standing anywhere, since not everyone agrees on cui bono why are you certain the Tories are the ones who will, even if they did have discussions with him what difference does that make as either they swayed him to step down or he chose to, and it leads to the same outcome. So really, what's with all this 'hmm'ing where its presented as some tremendous potential reveltation if the Tories and Farage did discuss things with him? It's positive or negatives depending on what side you stand aren't affected either way, yet its presented like this would be a killer fact.

    Not presenting it as some killer fact merely my opinion that the Conservative party as was has died and been replaced by Brexit/UKIP. I find that depressing because there was something to admire about the genuine Conservative party. Whereas what has replaced it is mean-minded, incoherent and seems to value nothing about what is best about Britain.
    The reports of the death of the Conservative Party have been greatly exaggerated.

    The new intake will be very much One Nation Conservatives.
    There is some prospect of a Boris pivot to the centre if he gets a decent majority. The Trump pivot never happened because Trump is an authentically mad bastard seriously invested in his own delusions. Boris is only invested in the success of Boris, and even if he is elected by right wing bastards he is likely to be more comfortable governing as a cuddly, one nation, Cameron before the crash style tory if his party will let him get away with it.
    Your optimistic! I don't believe all the one nation stuff BJ comes out with, just as I never believed the one nation bluster that came from Cameron. What is one nation about cutting disability benefits or freezing JSA whilst borrowing money to reduce capital gains tax?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    And so it goes on .......

    Labour Candidate Claimed Mural Isn't Anti-Semitic https://t.co/E43W05NOtT

    Some people are really stupid with their Internet output given they want to be MPs! I suppose it depends where the seat they are contesting, if it was Finchley and Golders green then they would be removed but if it is somewhere like Bradford West or Birmingham Hall Green then being associated with anti-Semitic stuff will probably do them no harm.
    Yeah isn't it terrible when people are slandered on the basis of their race or religious affiliation.
    I will never be a candidate for anything but you have to be realistic that some people who want to be MPs have some very strange views that would be better not to be published on social media. They are not very clever...
  • Floater said:

    kle4 said:

    Good grief it's Groundhog Day here again today...

    That picture of Corbyn. Which crap films are, or are not, Christmas films. The rubbish mural. Pineapple pizza. AV.

    We're caught in a constant loop.

    With Labour and the Tories going to trawl through facebook and twitter accounts for old scandals to mine, old issues are going to be bumped up time and again even more than usual, and I'm helpless but to respond. Lack of impulse control.

    Frankly the mural one I think could so easily be dropped since Corbyn apologised and provided an explanation (whether one accepts it or not), so it really should have no legs left as a political issue, but for some reason people love to carry on the fight he decided not to have. I'm not sure who that is supposed to benefit. It's not him, because he conceded that one years ago!
    Corbyn agreed it was anti semitic - some of his candidate mp's and posters on here seem not to have got the message.
    They are defending him by calling him a liar.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    egg said:

    Cyclefree said:



    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Today has brought 2 more depressing reasons for hoping the Tories don’t succeed:-

    1. Farage giving them a free run in some seats.
    2. The Tories proposal to renege on what has been agreed with the Irish government about prosecuting soldiers for crimes committed during the Troubles. Bad law, bad policy, morally repulsive and shows Ireland and others that the word of the British government cannot be relied upon.

    Yuck, yuck.

    Meanwhile Labour’s vote share creeps up.

    More yuck.

    If only they could both lose.

    I’m not sure the Tories are in charge of Farage’s decision.
    I am more cynical than you. Cui bono? The consensus seems to be the Tories. And I’m supposed to believe the Tories had absolutely nothing to do with it at all. Hmm....

    Jonathon was saying the same thing earlier, and it seems like a bizarre obsession to me. What difference does it make if they did? They don't get everything that they want by the fact of him standing anywhere, since not everyone agrees on cui bono why are you certain the Tories are the ones who will, even if they did have discussions with him what difference does that make as either they swayed him to step down or he chose to, and it leads to the same outcome. So really, what's with all this 'hmm'ing where its presented as some tremendous potential reveltation if the Tories and Farage did discuss things with him? It's positive or negatives depending on what side you stand aren't affected either way, yet its presented like this would be a killer fact.

    Not presenting it as some killer fact merely my opinion that the Conservative party as was has died and been replaced by Brexit/UKIP. I find that depressing because there was something to admire about the genuine Conservative party. Whereas what has replaced it is mean-minded, incoherent and seems to value nothing about what is best about Britain.
    The reports of the death of the Conservative Party have been greatly exaggerated.

    The new intake will be very much One Nation Conservatives.
    LOL Marky. So exactly how did the One Nation conservatives out Farage Farage. 😆
    They didn't blink.

    Farage is a busted flush. His Brexit Party supporters are muttering aloud that maybe he really doesn't want his soap box and milch cow taken away by us actually Brexiting.....
  • I'll be out delivering Lib Dem leaflets in the seemingly perpetual Lab/Con marginal seat of Lincoln this week (Lab defending a 1,538 majority this time). We're starting from 2.64% of the vote and 4th place - but in 2017 we didn't run any kind of campaign at all other than a street stall in the city centre. This year we've the resources to mount a real campaign. I'm not saying we stand any real chance of winning Lincoln (or similar seats) this time but this election, for us, is also about trying to start to build our support back up towards were it used to be (20% in Lincoln in 2010, for example). That will, realistically, take a couple of elections but we're up for it.

    In general I would say to people who are betting on the Lib Dem vote share to be aware that we are actually fighting quite hard in some no-hope seats - depending on the strength and inclination of our local parties. 2017 we were merely trying to stay on the map nationally and avert wipe-out. In 2019 we have the luxury of being able to choose our battles.
  • It has always been the case. Newspaper tells lies on page 1, apology later printed on page 14.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698

    Been in meetings all day, have I missed anything?

    Klopp is keen on moving to a bigger club based in North London with a desperate fan base ...
    I actually think Spurs would be a great move for Klopp. Wonderful stadium, best in the world, in London, bags of potential. Merseyside is hardly an inspiring place.
    But he would have to deal with Daniel Levy - a man who makes Boris look like the fountain of truth. I still remember him trying to pretend that a £5 million bid for Berahino was actually £20 million because of conditional add ons that would never have materialised.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    JohnO said:

    Cyclefree said:



    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Today has brought 2 more depressing reasons for hoping the Tories don’t succeed:-

    1. Farage giving them a free run in some seats.
    2. The Tories proposal to renege on what has been agreed with the Irish government about prosecuting soldiers for crimes committed during the Troubles. Bad law, bad policy, morally repulsive and shows Ireland and others that the word of the British government cannot be relied upon.

    Yuck, yuck.

    Meanwhile Labour’s vote share creeps up.

    More yuck.

    If only they could both lose.

    I’m not sure the Tories are in charge of Farage’s decision.
    I am more cynical than you. Cui bono? The consensus seems to be the Tories. And I’m supposed to believe the Tories had absolutely nothing to do with it at all. Hmm....

    Jonathon was saying the same thing earlier, and it seems like a bizarre obsession to me. What difference does it make if they did? They don't get everything that they want by the fact of him standing anywhere, since not everyone agrees on cui bono why are you certain the Tories are the ones who will, even if they did have discussions with him what difference does that make as either they swayed him to step down or he chose to, and it leads to the same outcome. So really, what's with all this 'hmm'ing where its presented as some tremendous potential reveltation if the Tories and Farage did discuss things with him? It's positive or negatives depending on what side you stand aren't affected either way, yet its presented like this would be a killer fact.

    Not presenting it as some killer fact merely my opinion that the Conservative party as was has died and been replaced by Brexit/UKIP. I find that depressing because there was something to admire about the genuine Conservative party. Whereas what has replaced it is mean-minded, incoherent and seems to value nothing about what is best about Britain.
    The reports of the death of the Conservative Party have been greatly exaggerated.

    The new intake will be very much One Nation Conservatives.
    As tonight’s selection of Flick Drummond goes to show. The third moderate former MP to be chosen in a safe seat.
    Laura Trott in Sevenoaks (even though it was the most Leave constituency in Kent, if I recall correctly).
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Twitter

    35 of the 50 smallest conservative majorities are in Leave seats. Those Conservatives no longer need worry about a pro-Leave rival. It does not guarantee Johnson a big majority but it's a bit silly to suggest this does not matter. A lot of motivated reasoning today #ge2019

    The other thing to bear in mind is that it allows the Conservatives to switch resources from defending seats and to transfer them onto attack.
    Hang on, you adding all the BP votes to the Tory total? What about where people who would vote brexit party for brexit but never vote Tory in their life, who now gets their vote? Last week BP attracts so many Labour votes, this week anyone who was planning to vote BP should be counted in Tory column.

    Tory’s couldn't get hurt with the tarring of right wing lurch due to the back room deal with Farage without gaining that many extra votes where they need them can they?

    No. Can’t see this concern on PB though, as there’s no PB Tory putting One Nation Conservative into every other sentence or talking up how moderate the latest PPC is.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    The logic of this is the same logic as following an historical stock price. Time moves forwards, not back.
  • Some selective quoting there but the principle is the same - Labour added a lot of votes last time around after this point in the campaign
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    Roger said:

    Cyclefree said:



    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Today has brought 2 more depressing reasons for hoping the Tories don’t succeed:-

    1. Farage giving them a free run in some seats.
    2. The Tories proposal to renege on what has been agreed with the Irish government about prosecuting soldiers for crimes committed during the Troubles. Bad law, bad policy, morally repulsive and shows Ireland and others that the word of the British government cannot be relied upon.

    Yuck, yuck.

    Meanwhile Labour’s vote share creeps up.

    More yuck.

    If only they could both lose.

    I’m not sure the Tories are in charge of Farage’s decision.
    I am more cynical than you. Cui bono? The consensus seems to be the Tories. And I’m supposed to believe the Tories had absolutely nothing to do with it at all. Hmm....

    Jonathon was saying the same thing earlier, and it seems like a bizarre obsession to me. What difference does it make if they did? They don't get everything that they want by the fact of him standing anywhere, since not everyone agrees on cui bono why are you certain the Tories are the ones who will, even if they did have discussions with him what difference does that make as either they swayed him to step down or he chose to, and it leads to the same outcome. So really, what's with all this 'hmm'ing where its presented as some tremendous potential reveltation if the Tories and Farage did discuss things with him? It's positive or negatives depending on what side you stand aren't affected either way, yet its presented like this would be a killer fact.

    Not presenting it as some killer fact merely my opinion that the Conservative party as was has died and been replaced by Brexit/UKIP. I find that depressing because there was something to admire about the genuine Conservative party. Whereas what has replaced it is mean-minded, incoherent and seems to value nothing about what is best about Britain.
    The reports of the death of the Conservative Party have been greatly exaggerated.

    The new intake will be very much One Nation Conservatives.
    LOL!! What nation is that?
    Dixieland.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291

    JohnO said:

    Cyclefree said:



    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Today has brought 2 more depressing reasons for hoping the Tories don’t succeed:-

    1. Farage giving them a free run in some seats.
    2. The Tories proposal to renege on what has been agreed with the Irish government about prosecuting soldiers for crimes committed during the Troubles. Bad law, bad policy, morally repulsive and shows Ireland and others that the word of the British government cannot be relied upon.

    Yuck, yuck.

    Meanwhile Labour’s vote share creeps up.

    More yuck.

    If only they could both lose.

    I’m not sure the Tories are in charge of Farage’s decision.
    I am more cynical than you. Cui bono? The consensus seems to be the Tories. And I’m supposed to believe the Tories had absolutely nothing to do with it at all. Hmm....

    Jonathon was saying the same thing earlier, and it seems like a bizarre obsession to me. What difference does it make if they did? They don't get everything that they want by the fact of him standing anywhere, since not everyone agrees on cui bono why are you certain the Tories are the ones who will, even if they did have discussions with him what difference does that make as either they swayed him to step down or he chose to, and it leads to the same outcome. So really, what's with all this 'hmm'ing where its presented as some tremendous potential reveltation if the Tories and Farage did discuss things with him? It's positive or negatives depending on what side you stand aren't affected either way, yet its presented like this would be a killer fact.

    Not presenting it as some killer fact merely my opinion that the Conservative party as was has died and been replaced by Brexit/UKIP. I find that depressing because there was something to admire about the genuine Conservative party. Whereas what has replaced it is mean-minded, incoherent and seems to value nothing about what is best about Britain.
    The reports of the death of the Conservative Party have been greatly exaggerated.

    The new intake will be very much One Nation Conservatives.
    As tonight’s selection of Flick Drummond goes to show. The third moderate former MP to be chosen in a safe seat.
    Laura Trott in Sevenoaks (even though it was the most Leave constituency in Kent, if I recall correctly).
    Yes, she worked for Cameron in No 10.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Fair play to you for not just posting food news stories for the Tories.

    I guess Boles is the counterpart to Woodcock and Austin, although not going for the main opponent of the person he despises.
    Good news stories. I cannot recall HYUFD posting food news stories.
    If he did it would be a turnip for the books.
    The swede smell of success!
    Now you’ve mangold my awesome pun.
    Give up. Beet surrender.
    I think it's quite amusing how many prospective parliamentary candidates are seeing their parsnip them in the bum!
    Now that is impressive. I was trying to think how to work parsnips in and I couldn’t.

    I think you’ve got to the root of the matter with that one.

    I shall therefore leaf you in peace.

    Good night.
    I do my best to salsify. :smile:
    You're a punning manioc.....
    Do you really think I yam?
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    Cyclefree said:



    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Today has brought 2 more depressing reasons for hoping the Tories don’t succeed:-

    bad policy, morally repulsive and shows Ireland and others that the word of the British government cannot be relied upon.

    Yuck, yuck.

    Meanwhile Labour’s vote share creeps up.

    More yuck.

    If only they could both lose.

    I’m not sure the Tories are in charge of Farage’s decision.
    I am more cynical than you. Cui bono? The consensus seems to be the Tories. And I’m supposed to believe the Tories had absolutely nothing to do with it at all. Hmm....

    Jonathon was saying the same thing earlier, and it seems like a bizarre obsession to me. What difference does it make if they did? They don't get everything that they want by the fact of him standing anywhere, since not everyone agrees on cui bono why are y It's positive or negatives depending on what side you stand aren't affected either way, yet its presented like this would be a killer fact.

    Not presenting it as some killer fact merely my opinion that the Conservative party as was has died and been replaced by Brexit/UKIP. I find that depressing because there was something to admire about the genuine Conservative party. Whereas what has replaced it is mean-minded, incoherent and seems to value nothing about what is best about Britain.
    The reports of the death of the Conservative Party have been greatly exaggerated.

    The new intake will be very much One Nation Conservatives.
    There is some prospect of a Boris pivot to the centre if he gets a decent majority. The Trump pivot never happened because Trump is an authentically mad bastard seriously invested in his own delusions. Boris is only invested in the success of Boris, and even if he is elected by right wing bastards he is likely to be more comfortable governing as a cuddly, one nation, Cameron before the crash style tory if his party will let him get away with it.
    Your optimistic! I don't believe all the one nation stuff BJ comes out with, just as I never believed the one nation bluster that came from Cameron. What is one nation about cutting disability benefits or freezing JSA whilst borrowing money to reduce capital gains tax?
    What is one nation about Brexit, the most divisive issue of our time?

    Not difficult to see which part of the nation will pay the largest part of the cost.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    HYUFD said:
    Sensible decision from Boris if true, even if Corbyn 'demanded' it first. Doesn't matter - the public will give Boris the credit, not Corbyn.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Posts saying 'at this point in the 2017 campaign the Tories were 15 points ahead' seem to have dried up :)

    I've been away at a wedding and am now just catching up.

    Current Tory lead is 11.0%. It was 17.8% at this stage of GE2017.
    That was before the dementia tax disaster Boris will not repeat and with the Brexit Party included which was not the case in 2017
    True, but the Tory vote share only fell by 3% in the period D-31 to Election Day.

    And the current polls are showing it averaging c. 39%, so 4.5% lower than the GE 2017 result (both exc. NI).

    The Tory vote fell by 4% in favour of Labour post dementia tax, the UKIP vote also collapsed in Labour's favour, the Brexit Party are now going hard in Labour areas
    When was the dementia tax announced?
    Thursday 18th May 2017
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Talking of campaigns past, anyone recall the ‘day the polls turned’ in 2015?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/09/labour-moves-ahead-of-tories-on-the-day-the-polls-turned
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Jason said:

    I too remain concerned that at some point there will be a polling panic as Labour starts to rise in the polls. Probably for no particular reason....

    However, the level of hostility towards Corbyn and his band of mad-hatter, unsavoury Marxists is now profound, widespread and deeply felt across much of the country, even amongst Labour voters. I really struggle to see what is going to change that in 4 weeks. People have had three YEARS to reach their conclusions. Corbyn is no longer a blank canvass. I cant see what is going to change.

    But happy to hear suggestions....



    Labour are entering a phase where wishful thinking is starting to replace reality.

    Hardly. The tory lead seems now to be in single figures. They will take that at this stage.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Bozo decided a Cobra meeting would look good optics .

    More faux empathy and concern designed to dupe people into thinking he gives two hoots .
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Cyclefree said:



    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Today has brought 2 more depressing reasons for hoping the Tories don’t succeed:-



    Yuck, yuck.

    Meanwhile Labour’s vote share creeps up.

    More yuck.

    If only they could both lose.

    I’m not sure the Tories are in charge of Farage’s decision.
    I am more cynical than you. Cui bono? The consensus seems to be the Tories. And I’m supposed to believe the Tories had absolutely nothing to do with it at all. Hmm....

    Jonathon was saying the same thing earlier, and it seems like a bizarre obsession to me. What difference does it make if they did? They don't get everything that they want by the fact of him standing anywhere, since not everyone agrees on cui bono why are y It's positive or negatives depending on what side you stand aren't affected either way, yet its presented like this would be a killer fact.

    Not presenting it as some killer fact merely my opinion that the Conservative party as was has died and been replaced by Brexit/UKIP. I find that depressing because there was something to admire about the genuine Conservative party. Whereas what has replaced it is mean-minded, incoherent and seems to value nothing about what is best about Britain.
    The reports of the death of the Conservative Party have been greatly exaggerated.

    The new intake will be very much One Nation Conservatives.
    There is some prospect of a Boris pivot to the centre if he gets a decent majority. The Trump pivot never happened because Trump is an authentically mad bastard seriously invested in his own delusions. Boris is only invested in the success of Boris, and even if he is elected by right wing bastards he is likely to be more comfortable governing as a cuddly, one nation, Cameron before the crash style tory if his party will let him get away with it.
    Your optimistic! I don't believe all the one nation stuff BJ comes out with, just as I never believed the one nation bluster that came from Cameron. What is one nation about cutting disability benefits or freezing JSA whilst borrowing money to reduce capital gains tax?
    What is one nation about Brexit, the most divisive issue of our time?

    Not difficult to see which part of the nation will pay the largest part of the cost.
    +1 BJ and the Tories are not One Nation Tories! It is just a slogan used to trick people into believing they are governing in everyone's interests instead of the top 30% Income households.
This discussion has been closed.