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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Brexit Carol – how last time is shaping views of GE2019
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Brexit Carol – how last time is shaping views of GE2019
There is a ghost which is stalking this election in the media coverage, and it is the spirit of 2017. Everywhere one looks right leaning journalists are fretting and not quite believing the polls. The spirit of Election 2017 and a good ghost for Labour it is too – “Oh Jeremy Corbyn !”.
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https://imgur.com/wlZXn52
Edit: not sure how to make it less huge, sorry about that.
Good Header Pulp! After giving me the two correct results out of two I was interested in I'm following you big time!!
Excellent article and if you're right a more apt comparison for Labour is Lib Dems in 2015.
Lib Dems succeeded in the past by being "not the Tories" to left-leaning voters and "not Labour" to right-leaning voters but after the Coalition they were unable to repeat that trick. Right leaning voters worried they'd put in Labour and left-leaning voters worried they'd put in the Tories. Better to vote for what you believe in than a party you can't rely upon.
Labour look in danger of repeating the same fate as the Lib Dems in 2015. From appealing to both sides to appealing to neither.
Learning and experiences have permeated the electorate.
Because they're right. Sorry, I wish it wasn't true, but it is.
Labour have been heading Northwards in the polls since the start of the campaign, and will continue to do so.
Boris has the horrific prospect of surviving the TV debates ahead of him, there will be the usual audience plant hoping to spike Corbyn, who has nothing to lose. It should be interesting.
The takeaway is, I suppose, that whilst there's less evidence this time round of a Labour recovery the gap it needs to close is smaller. No?
Both parties are trending upwards - but no guarantee either will continue to do so. We all remember what happened in 2010.
Labour down to 7 seats?
So despite your excellent analysis, I'm still expecting a convincing Labour revival over the next few weeks, and increasingly Corbyn as PM. If we're lucky, a handful of LD MPs and some Scot Nats who are largely disinterested inwhat haooens to England and Wales will be stong enough to keep a far-left Labour Party leadership who admire revolutionary communism in check until a saner leader or a saner party can be conjured up from somewhere.
I very much hope you are right and I am wrong!
If they get to within 5% of the tories then this is all to play for.
Whose core vote will ultimately prevail? I know where my money is, literally, and it ain't with this thread header.
Twitter is all agog.
They will poll at least 29-30% though, IMHO.
Ta
Which, I suppose, gives the lie to my previous comment. I'll try and calm down a bit.
Spot on.
Catch 22
― Damon Runyon
-is the principle to bear in mind.
Deja vu.
https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/appalling-choice-contest-must-start-the-process-of-building-something-new-a4283876.html
And a bad day for democracy, because once again, FPTP is eating our choices. Much as I think TBP are scum, they are scum that some people want to vote for and won't get the chance. And that's not right.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anscombe's_quartet
A brexit policy which, as the thread header, says satisfy nobody
EHRC about to report
Chaos with candidate selection
Nationalization policies which when thought about are a waste of money
A very poor front bench, even worse than the tories
Etc etc
I wouldn’t vote for red or blue but it’s clear many people can’t vote red, who knows where their vote will Go?
I don't see them getting up to 40% again by the end of the campaign - the LD revival isn't going to evaporate entirely, and Corbyn's dire leadership ratings will have an effect somewhere in excess of zero - but if Labour end up at the top end of that range (and I'm beginning to suspect that they will) then it's going to be tight. Either another Hung Parliament or a small Tory majority, most likely in single figures and probably not in excess of 20.
Any Con majority sees the Withdrawal Agreement passed and any of about 5 or more should, given the average age and health status of the modern MP, see them safe for a full Parliament. Although sorting out the future relationship with the EU under those circumstances would be great fun for Boris Johnson, I'm sure.
Anything short of a Con majority and we're probably heading for another election in the first half of 2020. A Labour performance good enough to rule with SNP votes alone doesn't look like it's on the cards, and a wobbly Remain alliance featuring the Lib Dems and other bits and pieces won't be able to agree on anything except stopping Brexit.
Though interesting you compare Corbyn to Hitler
They are all voting Brexit Party...
Hmm..
Trying to wish Jeremy Corbyn away, even if they close their eyes and imagine Keir Starmer is the actual Labour leader really, really hard, won't work. They will have to treat with him to get what they want.
The only possible getout is if the Conservatives fall so far short of a majority that the Lib Dems can abstain, and the other Opposition parties still have the numbers to outvote them. It's possible, of course, but it seems unlikely.
I think that explains people’s nervousness too: will Labour consolidate around 29-30%, or keep trending up to polling day?
We just don’t know.
So it’s considerably more likely than not that the Lib Dems only come into the mix if Labour has gone backwards in the seat count from last time. If so, there’s a very different dynamic to party negotiations. One more heave isn’t going to be remotely credible. The party leader would have demonstrably failed.
There wouldn’t be an election because Boris figures wouldn’t look so bad in the commons, he wouldn’t have sent the DUP under a bus nor his liberal Tories to the gallows harangued on the way by Dom if he thought there would be an election up against a moderate labour leader,
He thinks we’re facing a GE every 18 months or so for the next decade.
But all companies would have to consistently say within 5 in the last week of campaign.
Beware the CORBYN
On the other hand outside that bubble where Farage is very right of centre and his love for No Deal Brexit extreme, how many BP votes hinged on not being Tory, how many Tory votes hinged on not being Farage?
The guardian if you haven’t read it, can’t stop laughing at Farage for his climb down.
“If this was supposed to be a rally, you’d have to call it Triumph of the Willy. Here was a guy who’d spent 10 days bullishly making Johnson an offer he couldn’t refuse, (not forgetting a 10 point demolition of Boris deal, a deal that hasn’t changed a jot) it seems the PM does not negotiate with Faragists. The Brexit party leader is one of those hapless movie villains who tells a millionaire he’s kidnapped his wife, and the millionaire goes – great, you can keep her.”
I’m not so sure the Guardian has got this right, their position takes people on their word about what happened. Nigel said he got his assurances from a video in a Boris tweet, but with Tice and Farage both offered peerages there’s clearly been backroom discussions going on, so I agree with the BP members who feel there’s been a backroom meeting and stitch up.
Do not be surprised if some or more marginals do not have any TBP representation
I expect Arron Banks and Farage are in further talks over this
And, helpfully, thinks any criticism of her must be sexist or motivated by jealousy thus allowing her to be entirely dismissive of it.
I endorse this AVE IT