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  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,236

    DavidL said:

    Farage will not contest 317 seats conservatives won last election but will take on everyone else

    Big story

    Unfortunately the 90 odd Labour seats that are currently up for grabs from Labour are just as relevant to the outcome of this election but it might help the Tories resist Lib Dems in SW and southern England.
    There's some evidence that potential Lib Dem votes were swinging Tory because of fear of Corbyn. This announcement makes it easier for them to vote Lib Dem.
    Not sure I see how tbh. They either want Brexit done or they don't. If they don't they were going to vote Lib Dem anyway.
  • timmo said:

    I've said this before, but I'm not 100% convinced that the Brexit Party standing down is an unalloyed gift to the Conservatives.

    If the Lib Dems manage to successfully portray the Conservatives as "the Nigel Farage-backed Conservative party", that could attract as many votes to them in swing constituencies as would have been lost to BXP anyway.

    Only if those people want to remain..why on earth would leavers vote for the LdS
    I think that they wouldn't, but that moderate Tories may back off voting for them if they're seen as allied to TBP.
  • Farage has made the biggest move in the campaign so far and is now calling it a 'leave' alliance and be is going 100% for labour

    Bad news for the Tories being in an alliance with Farage.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    Not standing in any Tory seats.

    It makes it much easier for Remainer Tories to vote Lib Dem and splits the Leave vote in the Labour seats that the Tories are targetting.

    Good decision, Nigel.
    This doesn't make any sense.

    If u are a Tory remainer in the shires, you already know the brexit party cant win anyway. This news only helps the tories in Tory vs Libdem "marginals". .
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited November 2019
    The main effect of the Farage reverse ferret will be partial crippling the LD recovery in the south. Given the massive swings needed for many gains this will be the difference
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,643
    What the actual fuck?

    Nigel splitting the Leave vote letting Lab in. And likely no Brexit.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,934
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Farage will not contest 317 seats conservatives won last election but will take on everyone else

    Big story

    Unfortunately the 90 odd Labour seats that are currently up for grabs from Labour are just as relevant to the outcome of this election but it might help the Tories resist Lib Dems in SW and southern England.
    There's some evidence that potential Lib Dem votes were swinging Tory because of fear of Corbyn. This announcement makes it easier for them to vote Lib Dem.
    Not sure I see how tbh. They either want Brexit done or they don't. If they don't they were going to vote Lib Dem anyway.
    There's a lot of fatigue. Even many people who don't want Brexit have a sense of acceptance that the WA is probably going to go through, but the fight will then move on to what happens at the end of transition.
  • nunu2 said:

    Not standing in any Tory seats.

    It makes it much easier for Remainer Tories to vote Lib Dem and splits the Leave vote in the Labour seats that the Tories are targetting.

    Good decision, Nigel.
    This doesn't make any sense.

    If u are a Tory remainer in the shires, you already know the brexit party cant win anyway. This news only helps the tories in Tory vs Libdem "marginals". .
    For williamglenn all news is good news for remain. He's an undying optimist which I can respect.

    Boris could win a landslide majority and he'd be first to post how this means we'll be remaining in the EU.
  • Tepid take: I doubt this is going to make much difference to the outcome either way.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,775
    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    Do the Scots buy the idea that independence is a thing in this election? This is a Brexit election, and independence comes into it as a corollary, but how exactly? Does "taking us out of Europe against our will" strengthen the case for a second independence referendum? The SNP wants two referendums - on EU membership and on independence. They are allied with Labour in this position. The SLDs and the SCons are alike in not wanting any referendums, and are both pro-Union but opposed on the EU. So on policies the SNP and SLab stand together and their opponents are split. That is only good for the SNP I would say.


    Geoff, all of our elections are about independence. Try to imagine a world where the debates about Brexit never end (not too hard in fact). That's where we are.
    Yeah, I know - like you I'm in the midst of it. But over half the vote in 2014 was "no" and for those voters it is not about independence whatever the SNP says. I'm beginning to come to the view that this election might be good for the Scons.
  • Tepid take: I doubt this is going to make much difference to the outcome either way.

    Agreed.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,236
    I know its been commented on but the Nick Robinson interview of Thornberry this morning was something else. I actually quite like Thornberry and have no doubt that she would be a far more capable and competent leader of the Labour Party than Corbyn but one of the many reasons why that man is not fit to be PM and why voting for him is so problematic was laid bare. There are other reasons but his position on defence is completely unacceptable, even to his own cabinet.
  • dr_spyn said:

    Farage claims Brexit Party will contest 300+ seats mainly LD and Labour seats.

    Interesting to see how many seats are fought by UKIP and The Greens and how that affects the coverage.
  • Good for our very own Aaron Bell in Newcastle under Lyme.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,177

    Farage will not contest 317 seats conservatives won last election but will take on everyone else

    Big story

    Isn't that going to split Tory votes in those seats? Look at N Norfolk, for example. Now a stone cold LD hold, surely.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    timmo said:

    I've said this before, but I'm not 100% convinced that the Brexit Party standing down is an unalloyed gift to the Conservatives.

    If the Lib Dems manage to successfully portray the Conservatives as "the Nigel Farage-backed Conservative party", that could attract as many votes to them in swing constituencies as would have been lost to BXP anyway.

    Only if those people want to remain..why on earth would leavers vote for the LdS
    I think that they wouldn't, but that moderate Tories may back off voting for them if they're seen as allied to TBP.
    But farage has caved. Boris said no deals, farage just caved to the pack leader and will hunt on his behalf for no reward.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,770

    Farage has made the biggest move in the campaign so far and is now calling it a 'leave' alliance and be is going 100% for labour

    And in the Labour seats that the Tories need to win to get a majority the BXP will split the Tory vote just enough to keep a Labour MP.

    I actually suspect this will do the Tories more harm than good.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Farage has made the biggest move in the campaign so far and is now calling it a 'leave' alliance and be is going 100% for labour

    It makes sense as a decision.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Farage will not contest 317 seats conservatives won last election but will take on everyone else

    Big story

    Unfortunately the 90 odd Labour seats that are currently up for grabs from Labour are just as relevant to the outcome of this election but it might help the Tories resist Lib Dems in SW and southern England.
    There's some evidence that potential Lib Dem votes were swinging Tory because of fear of Corbyn. This announcement makes it easier for them to vote Lib Dem.
    Not sure I see how tbh. They either want Brexit done or they don't. If they don't they were going to vote Lib Dem anyway.
    Positive news for the blue team, the presumption that loads of traditional Labour people could switch entirely to Tory always been a stretch as we've seen before now means they can vote Brexit party rather than Tory or going home to Labour.
  • Farage has made the biggest move in the campaign so far and is now calling it a 'leave' alliance and be is going 100% for labour

    It is and always was utter rubbish to think that the BXP standing would somehow help rather than harm the Conservatives. For the avoidance of doubt, we have unequivocal polling on this.

    Deltapoll 6-9 November

    Standard VI response
    Con 41
    Lab 29
    LD 16
    BXP 6
    SNP 3
    Green 2
    UKIP 1

    "Now imagine that only the following
    parties were running in your constituency
    in the general election. Which party would
    you vote for?"
    Con 46
    Lab 30
    LD 17
    SNP 3
    Green 3

    In the 317 existing seats the Conservatives hold, the latter is now the relevant polling.
  • The Conservatives have been for Brexit since the country voted for Brexit. That's not news!
  • Farage's move should help the Tories to the tune of about 13 seats according to my model, hurting Labour (-6), the Lib Dems (-6) and the SNP (-1). Difference between a majority of about 16 and about 42.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,293
    edited November 2019

    Farage will not contest 317 seats conservatives won last election but will take on everyone else

    Big story

    Those Conservative candidates are now: "Endorsed by Nigel Farage"
    Strikes me that Boris still needs to win a decent chunk of the opposition-held marginals if he's to get the majority he needs to deliver his deal (and certainly if he wants to make any divisive decisions on the future relationship or lack thereof later next year).

    A (now even noisier) BXP campaign in Workington, Crewe or Bolsover does not help Bozza achieve this.

    If Farage was aiming to help him (rather than just get the heat off himself for splitting the vote), he should have gone another 30 seats down the list.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited November 2019
    Lol, Jo thinks that is a vote loser
    Only lefties and liberals are allowed to stitch up elections
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,643
    eek said:

    Farage has made the biggest move in the campaign so far and is now calling it a 'leave' alliance and be is going 100% for labour

    And in the Labour seats that the Tories need to win to get a majority the BXP will split the Tory vote just enough to keep a Labour MP.

    I actually suspect this will do the Tories more harm than good.
    Of course it will. It is the definition of bonkers. He really doesn't seem to want Brexit
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,236

    Tepid take: I doubt this is going to make much difference to the outcome either way.

    Agreed. Nigel is still wanting to pretend he's relevant but he's not. It's all about Boris now for good or ill.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    On the face of it this looks like a sensible move by the BP.

    Not great for Lib Dems in those marginals against the Tories. I think it depends how this is portrayed by the opposition . Although Farage said this was a unilateral decision will voters believe this .

    And if any sort of traction happens with this having been agreed behind closed doors then this could harm the Tories.
  • TOPPING said:

    What the actual fuck?

    Nigel splitting the Leave vote letting Lab in. And likely no Brexit.

    He is targetting the many labour voters who will not vote conservative and between bothlabour will be in a pincer movement
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,538
    edited November 2019
    DavidL said:

    I know its been commented on but the Nick Robinson interview of Thornberry this morning was something else. I actually quite like Thornberry and have no doubt that she would be a far more capable and competent leader of the Labour Party than Corbyn but one of the many reasons why that man is not fit to be PM and why voting for him is so problematic was laid bare. There are other reasons but his position on defence is completely unacceptable, even to his own cabinet.

    I laughed out loud several times, so feeble were her arguments. It was particularly funny when she tried, unsuccessfully, to finesse 'No' (Corbyn's commendably clear one-word reply to the question 'Are there any circumstances where you might authorise the use of nuclear weapons?') into a Yes.
  • Not standing in any Tory seats.

    It makes it much easier for Remainer Tories to vote Lib Dem and splits the Leave vote in the Labour seats that the Tories are targetting.

    Good decision, Nigel.
    ‘Whatever happens whatever the circumstances or outcome: it is good for Remain.’
  • So Lib Dems are now the Welsh independence party?
  • eek said:

    Farage has made the biggest move in the campaign so far and is now calling it a 'leave' alliance and be is going 100% for labour

    And in the Labour seats that the Tories need to win to get a majority the BXP will split the Tory vote just enough to keep a Labour MP.

    I actually suspect this will do the Tories more harm than good.
    Maybe, maybe not.

    I doubt the Tory vote will be split. If "I will never vote for the Tories" Leave voters vote for the BXP instead of Labour then that could be good news for the Tories.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    nunu2 said:

    Growth 0.3% - no recession

    I wouldn't cheer about that number if I was the tories.
    It is way better than pretty much every other major european economy and in the face of a marked global slowdown.

    Given the bollocks we've seen on this site about the supposed eceonomic effects of Brexit it is a remarkable and heartening figure and the tories should take full credit.
    Meanwhile, over a more meaningful time period:

    https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1193832832206098432
    That's the price of the uncertainty brought about by people refusing to accept Brexit and trying to thwart it.
    So you think the UK will grow faster than the EU post-Brexit?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,243
    TOPPING said:

    What the actual fuck?

    Nigel splitting the Leave vote letting Lab in. And likely no Brexit.

    It gives him what he wants - a grievance.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,847
    timmo said:

    He wants a hung parliament..it gives him relevance
    well, the last hung parliament was good for the hard brexiters. If May had got her bigger majority in 2017 we would probably have left by now with a Brexit significantly softer than the current deal.
    small con maj to hung parliament is maybe win-win for Farage. Either Johnson is even more hostage to the ERG types, and we fall off the No Trade Deal cliff edge at the end of 2020, or possibly Brexit is cancelled and he gets to make a comeback as hero of the Will O The People.

    Johnson could tack back towards promising a softish end-deal with the EU to reassure the con-leaning soft remainish voters, but nobody believes a word he says. Hence the only thing left for the conservatives is to claim that Corbyn as PM would mean the end of the world so you'd better vote tory!
    Which is what they said about every labour leader that I can remember (as far back as Foot). Same Project Fear every time.
  • TOPPING said:

    What the actual fuck?

    Nigel splitting the Leave vote letting Lab in. And likely no Brexit.

    He is targetting the many labour voters who will not vote conservative and between bothlabour will be in a pincer movement
    Agreed,
  • Just as well I bet on the BXP getting less than 5% at 2.5 last night...


    I didn’t because I wasn’t impressed by the odds!

    Even less impressive now.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,826
    edited November 2019
    God lewis godall has really lost any sense of balance...according to him on sky a couple of minutes ago, brexit party not standing in 300+ seats is really bad news for the tories...no not a slip of the tongue, its really bad for the tories, something something looks bad, but remain alliance is fine, in fact better for them.
  • Errrhhh, i think that has been boris' pitch for the past few months.
  • Gabs2 said:

    nunu2 said:

    Growth 0.3% - no recession

    I wouldn't cheer about that number if I was the tories.
    It is way better than pretty much every other major european economy and in the face of a marked global slowdown.

    Given the bollocks we've seen on this site about the supposed eceonomic effects of Brexit it is a remarkable and heartening figure and the tories should take full credit.
    Meanwhile, over a more meaningful time period:

    https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1193832832206098432
    That's the price of the uncertainty brought about by people refusing to accept Brexit and trying to thwart it.
    So you think the UK will grow faster than the EU post-Brexit?
    In the long term? Yes.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    eek said:

    Farage has made the biggest move in the campaign so far and is now calling it a 'leave' alliance and be is going 100% for labour

    And in the Labour seats that the Tories need to win to get a majority the BXP will split the Tory vote just enough to keep a Labour MP.

    I actually suspect this will do the Tories more harm than good.
    Maybe, maybe not.

    I doubt the Tory vote will be split. If "I will never vote for the Tories" Leave voters vote for the BXP instead of Labour then that could be good news for the Tories.
    Only if TBP peel off more Labour votes than Tory ones. And the polling suggests the opposite is true.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    nico67 said:

    On the face of it this looks like a sensible move by the BP.

    Not great for Lib Dems in those marginals against the Tories. I think it depends how this is portrayed by the opposition . Although Farage said this was a unilateral decision will voters believe this .

    And if any sort of traction happens with this having been agreed behind closed doors then this could harm the Tories.

    What like the remain alliance and the greens backing off to help labour?
    Heidi Allen and her little helpers opened the door to this and legitimized it fully.
  • One has to wonder what the quo is pro the quid, mind.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,709
    One place this really does help the Tories is in the southwest.

    It's probably more or less a wash up north, plenty of labour leave (yes yes I've read the ecological fallacy stuff on this) voters whose pencils won't want to to tick the Tory box.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    What I guess will be the final Guardian polling average with 600 Brexit Party candidates:

    Con 39%
    Lab 27%
    LD 16%
    BRX 9%
    Grn 3%

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/oct/31/uk-general-election-2019-poll-tracker
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,864
    Probably Nigel will get his reward after the GE when he is appointed Governor-General of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Or some such lucrative position.

    I don't care, as long I never see his face again.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,236
    edited November 2019

    DavidL said:

    I know its been commented on but the Nick Robinson interview of Thornberry this morning was something else. I actually quite like Thornberry and have no doubt that she would be a far more capable and competent leader of the Labour Party than Corbyn but one of the many reasons why that man is not fit to be PM and why voting for him is so problematic was laid bare. There are other reasons but his position on defence is completely unacceptable, even to his own cabinet.

    I laughed out loud several times, so feeble were her arguments. It was particularly funny when she tried, unsuccessfully, to finesse 'No' (Corbyn's commendably clear one-word reply to the question 'Are there any circumstances where you might authorise the use of nuclear weapons?' into a Yes.
    It had all the clarity of their reasoning on Brexit. The more that this goes on the more I think Labour are playing with fire here. They got away with Corbyn once as a result of May's complete ineptitude and a very distorted media story indicating it was all about the size of the majority. I am increasingly doubtful they will get away with it again. Labour are going to be walloped and only a Lib Dem surge is going to stop Boris getting a significant majority.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,421
    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:


    And yet annual growth is 1% at a time of historically high employment, record numbers of vacancies and an ever growing population adding to the workforce.

    We could and should be doing so much better but in the current economic model recruiting extra labour is easier than investing in technology to drive business efficiencies. Productivity remains poor because we are either unable or unwilling to innovate and rely on a Service sector parts of which remain heavily labour-intensive.

    And you don't think that's related to having a virtually unlimited pool of cheap labour available?
    Of course. Crude example - I can get my car washed by a very impressive machine at Tesco's which employs one bloke to take the money and two others to do a pre-wash. OTOH I can go to my local hand car wash and get six blokes to clean my car the old fashioned way with sponges and buckets of water.

    That's our economy in microcosm. The construction industry certainly in London is full of labourers from other parts of the world and it's that sector (0.6% growth) which has helped keep us out of recession.
    Don't do either because they are both fucking your clear coat.
  • Farage has made the biggest move in the campaign so far and is now calling it a 'leave' alliance and be is going 100% for labour

    Are you happy to be voting for "Nigel Farage's Conservative candidate" ?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Pulpstar said:

    One place this really does help the Tories is in the southwest.

    It's probably more or less a wash up north, plenty of labour leave (yes yes I've read the ecological fallacy stuff on this) voters whose pencils won't want to to tick the Tory box.

    NE Scotland too where 4 seats will be very close fights
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    Farage has made the biggest move in the campaign so far and is now calling it a 'leave' alliance and be is going 100% for labour

    Bad news for the Tories being in an alliance with Farage.
    No Tories are going to call it an alliance
  • Noo said:

    eek said:

    Farage has made the biggest move in the campaign so far and is now calling it a 'leave' alliance and be is going 100% for labour

    And in the Labour seats that the Tories need to win to get a majority the BXP will split the Tory vote just enough to keep a Labour MP.

    I actually suspect this will do the Tories more harm than good.
    Maybe, maybe not.

    I doubt the Tory vote will be split. If "I will never vote for the Tories" Leave voters vote for the BXP instead of Labour then that could be good news for the Tories.
    Only if TBP peel off more Labour votes than Tory ones. And the polling suggests the opposite is true.
    I don't believe it does. The Tories are polling over 40% in many polls which is roughly what they got in the last election. Labour are polling in the 20s and the BXP around double digits when UKIP got below 2%.

    Tories + UKIP did not get 50% of the vote share in 2017 yet that is what many polls are putting Tories + BXP on now. Quite clear a lot of BXP voters did not come from the Tories and the Tory voters have already 'gone home' back to the Tories in order for them to be polling 40% already.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 784
    Pulpstar said:

    One place this really does help the Tories is in the southwest.

    It's probably more or less a wash up north, plenty of labour leave (yes yes I've read the ecological fallacy stuff on this) voters whose pencils won't want to to tick the Tory box.

    I agree. I really don't think this will make much of a difference in seat terms as it's going to primarily be SW England LD flirting leave seats where it makes the most impact, but those 10-20 seats can make all the difference when it could be close.
  • Nigel has just signed Boris's death warrant.
  • ‪With the Farage endorsement the Tories’ journey to the hard right continues. It’s no coincidence they are in the same group as VOX at the European Parliament.‬ This will not end well for the former Conservative and Unionist Party or, far more importantly, for the country.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916
    Now the Brexit Party will not contest any Tory held seats but only Labour held seats that gives a big boost to Tory MPs fighting the LDs and SNP while still ensuring Tory candidates in Labour held marginals benefit from Labour Leave voters voting Brexit Party.

    Also a good counter from the Leave side to the LD and Plaid and Green Remain Alliance
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,864

    God lewis godall has really lost any sense of balance...according to him on sky a couple of minutes ago, brexit party not standing in 300+ seats is really bad news for the tories...no not a slip of the tongue, its really bad for the tories, something something looks bad, but remain alliance is fine, in fact better for them.

    There has been some impressive doublethink already on pb.com on how the Remain Alliance is highly beneficial for the LibDems, and how the Leave Alliance is also highly beneficial for the LibDems !!
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,964
    So the Tories have morphed into the Brexit party.

    Very apt as both are led by mendacious, disingenuous racist scum. To hell with both parties!
  • One has to wonder what the quo is pro the quid, mind.

    I was wondering the same.
  • nunu2 said:

    Not standing in any Tory seats.

    It makes it much easier for Remainer Tories to vote Lib Dem and splits the Leave vote in the Labour seats that the Tories are targetting.

    Good decision, Nigel.
    This doesn't make any sense.

    If u are a Tory remainer in the shires, you already know the brexit party cant win anyway. This news only helps the tories in Tory vs Libdem "marginals". .
    For williamglenn all news is good news for remain. He's an undying optimist which I can respect.

    Boris could win a landslide majority and he'd be first to post how this means we'll be remaining in the EU.
    He’s a fanatic.

    The fanatic always harbours a secret doubt.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916

    Errrhhh, i think that has been boris' pitch for the past few months.
    They aren't, they have a Deal with the EU Farage opposes
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,243

    So Lib Dems are now the Welsh independence party?
    A fair point, although theres still more overlap between BXP and con support I'd guess
  • Good for our very own Aaron Bell in Newcastle under Lyme.

    Really? BXP *will* be standing there (Lab held), and will probably bus in all the people who'd have been campaigning in Telford and Stafford etc.

    While I take Alistair's point that the effect may not be huge, I do believe BXP presence hits Tories more than Lab, and in a seat with a majority of 30 that feels sub-optimal for the dark blues.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    You can hear the Labour party collectively soiling themselves as we speak.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,709
    There'll be partying in the Southwest and Northeast of Great Britain tonight !
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2019

    ‪With the Farage endorsement the Tories’ journey to the hard right continues. It’s no coincidence they are in the same group as VOX at the European Parliament.‬ This will not end well for the former Conservative and Unionist Party or, far more importantly, for the country.

    This isn't really about the Tories or the UK specifically, it's part of a wider movement of national populism that's occurring in many liberal democracies. I think it's probably a mistake to focus too narrowly on one country or party when seeking to analyse why it's happening.
  • One has to wonder what the quo is pro the quid, mind.

    I am pretty certain there isn't one, for the very simple reason that if the Conservatives were considering offering something to Farage, they wouldn't be doing it in return for this rather odd offer, which doesn't help them much if at all.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,243

    One has to wonder what the quo is pro the quid, mind.

    Since some are so certain this will hurt the Tories overall perhaps there is none.
  • Jason said:

    You can hear the Labour party collectively soiling themselves as we speak.

    What a day they are having. Nuclear codes/deterrence all morning, then at lunch Farage drops the bomb on them
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Nigel has just signed Boris's death warrant.

    It's interesting how the same announcement can be viewed in so many different ways. Some say this is very good for the Tories, others say it's bad news for them.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Noo said:

    eek said:

    Farage has made the biggest move in the campaign so far and is now calling it a 'leave' alliance and be is going 100% for labour

    And in the Labour seats that the Tories need to win to get a majority the BXP will split the Tory vote just enough to keep a Labour MP.

    I actually suspect this will do the Tories more harm than good.
    Maybe, maybe not.

    I doubt the Tory vote will be split. If "I will never vote for the Tories" Leave voters vote for the BXP instead of Labour then that could be good news for the Tories.
    Only if TBP peel off more Labour votes than Tory ones. And the polling suggests the opposite is true.
    I don't believe it does. The Tories are polling over 40% in many polls which is roughly what they got in the last election. Labour are polling in the 20s and the BXP around double digits when UKIP got below 2%.

    Tories + UKIP did not get 50% of the vote share in 2017 yet that is what many polls are putting Tories + BXP on now. Quite clear a lot of BXP voters did not come from the Tories and the Tory voters have already 'gone home' back to the Tories in order for them to be polling 40% already.
    We have polls that have shown current voting intention by vote in 2017. Those have shown about two thirds of BXP voters were CON and one third LAB. But now you have to take out those from Tory seats, it probably tilts those numbers towards former Labour voters more. I suspect it will now be 50-50 and not make too much difference in aggregate. Though there may be some Tories in more middle class Labour seats who will feel a bit hard done by.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,321
    edited November 2019
    I think the very different views on here are explicable as follows:

    1. If you think this makes BXP a busted flush, you think the liberal Conservative wing is stronger; if you think it amounts to a BXP "coupon" they are dead
    2. If you think this means BXP will be targetting Cons in Lab seats, you think it's good for Corbyn; if you think it means they can't get anywhere vs the Tories in England and are going to pitch for Labour votes, you think it helps Johnson.

    Personally I think it's a clear sign of BXP weakness, but in terms of point (2) we shall have to see.
  • Good for our very own Aaron Bell in Newcastle under Lyme.

    Really? BXP *will* be standing there (Lab held), and will probably bus in all the people who'd have been campaigning in Telford and Stafford etc.

    While I take Alistair's point that the effect may not be huge, I do believe BXP presence hits Tories more than Lab, and in a seat with a majority of 30 that feels sub-optimal for the dark blues.
    Yes, you are right, it doesn't make much difference to those Labour-held Brexity seats.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,826
    edited November 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Errrhhh, i think that has been boris' pitch for the past few months.
    They aren't, they have a Deal with the EU Farage opposes
    You know what i mean. Boris pitch is the tories are the real brexit party ie getting it done.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,243

    Not standing in any Tory seats.

    It makes it much easier for Remainer Tories to vote Lib Dem and splits the Leave vote in the Labour seats that the Tories are targetting.

    Good decision, Nigel.
    ‘Whatever happens whatever the circumstances or outcome: it is good for Remain.’
    If someone thinks like that they really will lose again.
  • Good for our very own Aaron Bell in Newcastle under Lyme.

    Really? BXP *will* be standing there (Lab held), and will probably bus in all the people who'd have been campaigning in Telford and Stafford etc.

    While I take Alistair's point that the effect may not be huge, I do believe BXP presence hits Tories more than Lab, and in a seat with a majority of 30 that feels sub-optimal for the dark blues.
    Noteworthy that BXP haven't according to Wiki named a candidate for Newcastle under Lyme. Wonder whether they will bother to or not? And if they do stand will they attract Labour Leavers more than Tories?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,177
    I wonder how many Lab Con marginals will not swing over after Farage's announcement. https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8067#fullreport
  • AndyJS said:

    Nigel has just signed Boris's death warrant.

    It's interesting how the same announcement can be viewed in so many different ways. Some say this is very good for the Tories, others say it's bad news for them.
    Anyone who's had it revealed to them in the past half-hour that the Tories are now the party of proper/hard Brexit (depending on your view - maybe even "proper, hard"!) really hasn't been paying attention.
  • Farage will not contest 317 seats conservatives won last election but will take on everyone else

    Big story

    Those Conservative candidates are now: "Endorsed by Nigel Farage"
    Strikes me that Boris still needs to win a decent chunk of the opposition-held marginals if he's to get the majority he needs to deliver his deal (and certainly if he wants to make any divisive decisions on the future relationship or lack thereof later next year).

    A (now even noisier) BXP campaign in Workington, Crewe or Bolsover does not help Bozza achieve this.

    If Farage was aiming to help him (rather than just get the heat off himself for splitting the vote), he should have gone another 30 seats down the list.
    TBP candidates in Workington and Telford have stood down and support the conservative
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Good for our very own Aaron Bell in Newcastle under Lyme.

    Really? BXP *will* be standing there (Lab held), and will probably bus in all the people who'd have been campaigning in Telford and Stafford etc.

    While I take Alistair's point that the effect may not be huge, I do believe BXP presence hits Tories more than Lab, and in a seat with a majority of 30 that feels sub-optimal for the dark blues.
    If the polling remains at about a 10% lead with the Tories slightly down on 2017 only, the likes if NUL are certain gains regardless. The effect will be felt (on figures of 40 to 30 nationally) in those seats with around 3 to 5000 majorities
  • kle4 said:

    One has to wonder what the quo is pro the quid, mind.

    Since some are so certain this will hurt the Tories overall perhaps there is none.
    Confirmation bias is already doing a brilliant job on this thread.
  • I expect the Brexit party is not so self-sacrificing that it will return the £100 application fees to the candidates who have been stood down.
  • So Farage has decided that Boris can be trusted on the transition cliff edge.

    :lol:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,826
    edited November 2019

    One has to wonder what the quo is pro the quid, mind.

    I am pretty certain there isn't one, for the very simple reason that if the Conservatives were considering offering something to Farage, they wouldn't be doing it in return for this rather odd offer, which doesn't help them much if at all.
    Perhaps for all the billy big.bollocks talk the brexit party arent in an organisational or financial position for the GE, espeically not to lose 100s of deposit fees.

    This way if boris gets a majority farage gets to save face.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,538
    CON=BXP


    The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.
  • One has to wonder what the quo is pro the quid, mind.

    I am pretty certain there isn't one, for the very simple reason that if the Conservatives were considering offering something to Farage, they wouldn't be doing it in return for this rather odd offer, which doesn't help them much if at all.
    I think it helps shore up their 317 baseline so they don't lose seats [if they won them last time while UKIP were effectively stood down they should do so this time with BXP stood down] while hopefully helping split the Labour vote that Labour recovered last time from UKIP when UKIP stood down last time.

    Worth remembering in 2017 when UKIP share collapsed they were squeezed by Labour not Tories.

    I think this is the best of both worlds. Secure one flank, while attack on the other.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,102
    The Farage move has triggered a large jump in Tory seats and majority on the spreads. So they think it helps Johnson big time.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    We’ll have to wait and see how this effects the polling .

    Really depends how the opposition play this . Not standing in 317 seats is by extension endorsing the Tory candidate , if the opposition can tie them together as someone earlier said Nigel Farages Conservative candidate this could be a problem for the Tories .
  • AndyJS said:

    Nigel has just signed Boris's death warrant.

    It's interesting how the same announcement can be viewed in so many different ways. Some say this is very good for the Tories, others say it's bad news for them.
    I think the only honest answer is to say that no one knows.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Gabs2 said:

    Noo said:

    eek said:

    Farage has made the biggest move in the campaign so far and is now calling it a 'leave' alliance and be is going 100% for labour

    And in the Labour seats that the Tories need to win to get a majority the BXP will split the Tory vote just enough to keep a Labour MP.

    I actually suspect this will do the Tories more harm than good.
    Maybe, maybe not.

    I doubt the Tory vote will be split. If "I will never vote for the Tories" Leave voters vote for the BXP instead of Labour then that could be good news for the Tories.
    Only if TBP peel off more Labour votes than Tory ones. And the polling suggests the opposite is true.
    I don't believe it does. The Tories are polling over 40% in many polls which is roughly what they got in the last election. Labour are polling in the 20s and the BXP around double digits when UKIP got below 2%.

    Tories + UKIP did not get 50% of the vote share in 2017 yet that is what many polls are putting Tories + BXP on now. Quite clear a lot of BXP voters did not come from the Tories and the Tory voters have already 'gone home' back to the Tories in order for them to be polling 40% already.
    We have polls that have shown current voting intention by vote in 2017. Those have shown about two thirds of BXP voters were CON and one third LAB. But now you have to take out those from Tory seats, it probably tilts those numbers towards former Labour voters more. I suspect it will now be 50-50 and not make too much difference in aggregate. Though there may be some Tories in more middle class Labour seats who will feel a bit hard done by.
    This can't be right - there was a virtual wipeout of BXP (I assume you mean UKIP) in 2017 - there were hardly any votes to swing.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    So Lib Dems are now the Welsh independence party?
    Quite.

    I can’t wait for one of them to knock on my door so I can point out they’re dead set against independence in Scotland ( where their leader has a seat of course), but have gone into an arranged alliance with (an Adam Price led I want an independence referendum) Plaid Cymru in my constituency.

    I’ve got both verbal barrels loaded and plenty of hypocritical ammo for the poor schmuck they send round to canvass me.
  • Amazing the variance of views on here between those saying a disaster for Lab, those saying a disaster for Con, and all in between.
  • AndyJS said:

    Nigel has just signed Boris's death warrant.

    It's interesting how the same announcement can be viewed in so many different ways. Some say this is very good for the Tories, others say it's bad news for them.
    I think, to be honest, those saying it's bad news for the Tories are working too hard.

    Yes, it'd be nice for the Tories if Farage also stood down in target seats. But this will mean it is much easier to defend a lot of the 317 - there is absolutely no question about that.

    Sell Lib Dems, buy Tories on this news.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,964
    nico67 said:

    We’ll have to wait and see how this effects the polling .

    Really depends how the opposition play this . Not standing in 317 seats is by extension endorsing the Tory candidate , if the opposition can tie them together as someone earlier said Nigel Farages Conservative candidate this could be a problem for the Tories .

    It's not quite an open goal, but real potential for Labour and co to do damage here. Unfortunately Labour is led by a halfwit - that's the problem!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,938
    I think this is marginally helpful to the Conservatives, and elections are sometimes won or lost at the margins.
  • eek said:

    Farage has made the biggest move in the campaign so far and is now calling it a 'leave' alliance and be is going 100% for labour

    And in the Labour seats that the Tories need to win to get a majority the BXP will split the Tory vote just enough to keep a Labour MP.

    I actually suspect this will do the Tories more harm than good.
    It depends. You could reasonably argue that likely Brexit Party voters were mostly ex-Tories (would never vote Labour/Lib Dem) in Conservative seats and mostly ex-Labour (would never vote Tory) in Labour seats. So, on a pure numbers basis you could expect it to help the Tories.

    However, politically, if it's noticed at all it would be to create the idea that Johnson is acceptably extreme enough for Farage (thus putting off some Tories who might be tempted to vote for the Lib Dems) and that Farage will back a Tory government (potentially sending Brexit Party voters back to Labour).

    The British public may have already decided to ignore anything Farage says, so making no real difference. This then makes this part of Farage's avoid humiliation strategy, and maybe he'll try to claim the credit for Johnson's majority.
This discussion has been closed.