politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on the Scottish battlegrounds
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Spot on.Philip_Thompson said:
Dialogue involves talking to both sides. Corbyn supports one side and won't even talk to Chuka let alone Israel etcMysticrose said:
Bravo. Good for him.rottenborough said:Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years
Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.
And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.
It's better to talk ...1 -
Look at what she is being asked to defend.rottenborough said:Is Thornberry ill with the old campaign flu this morning? Seems all over the place.
Would your heart be in it?0 -
They will have less chance of being killed as he would keep them away from any military action?Roger said:You've got to feel for Emily Thornberry. She's been sent out on the red-eye watch to expain how Jeremy Corbyn is going to improve the lot of the British armed sevices!
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DJL's corollary: rich people support regressive indirect taxes such as VAT (doubled by Mrs Thatcher and increased to 20 per cent by that nice Mr Osborne).Foxy said:
Foxys dictum of taxation: Fair taxes are those paid by other people.HYUFD said:Corbyn's most popular promise is taxing the rich more
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1193793415114379265?s=200 -
I'd rather somebody who instinctively makes the right call than somebody who analytically makes the wrong onekle4 said:
Automatically ruling out action is absurd as automatically chomping at the bit to take action.Mysticrose said:
Bravo. Good for him.rottenborough said:Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years
Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.
And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.
It's better to talk ...
Perhaps he might consider situations on their merits rather than instinctive ideology? Plenty of gung ho types should, so should he.0 -
Are questioning how the people of Hampshire NW wish to self-identify?JohnO said:
The seat is NW Hampshire.Charles said:
Although Hampshire NW likes to confuse peopleAlastairMeeks said:
Sorry, I did know that it is city then geographical indicator and geographical indicator then county, but the betting companies make it as hard as possible to remember that.OnlyLivingBoy said:As I noted on a previous thread, it really is NE Fife not Fife NE. That is all.
(It was George Younger’s fault)0 -
Stunning spinMysticrose said:
Bravo. Good for him.rottenborough said:Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years
Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.
And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.
It's better to talk ...
He hates the West and supports our enemies
According to you Gulf War 1 and the Falklands were wrong too then....
Look at Stop the War when Corbyn was front and centre - It seems only some conflicts were worthy of condemnation1 -
Where does he get the "working age" bit from?NickPalmer said:
Where do you get the "over 65" bit?HYUFD said:LDs propose a £10 000 skills fund for all adults of working age over 65 funded by a rise in corporation tax
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50367650
The policy I voted for was a LIFELONG wallet (at present in England only) created at 25, then topped up at 40 and 55, which beneficiaries could draw down at any time of their lives thereafter on approved skill acquisition programmes.
Including at the increasingly common stage between 60 and 70 when someone wants to retire from their conventional job and - well, consult worldwide on their expertise, develop a home-based business or work three days a week for their preferred charity providing skills kind of related to what they were doing.
Maybe chav Tories intend after 60 sloping off to the Costa del Sawnoff Shotgun (if it'll admit Brexited scroungers into their health system) and pickle themselves to death. Real grownups want to spend their last few decades doing something useful.0 -
If she cannot defend the policy she should resign.Floater said:
Look at what she is being asked to defend.rottenborough said:Is Thornberry ill with the old campaign flu this morning? Seems all over the place.
Would your heart be in it?0 -
Maybe @rottenborough is right and she is ill. There is a lot of it going round, to use a medical term.Floater said:
Look at what she is being asked to defend.rottenborough said:Is Thornberry ill with the old campaign flu this morning? Seems all over the place.
Would your heart be in it?0 -
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1193806465598992384?s=20Roger said:You've got to feel for Emily Thornberry. She's been sent out on the red-eye watch to expain how Jeremy Corbyn is going to improve the lot of the British armed sevices!
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That's an astute comment. To adapt to being the majority party its particular appeal to those areas that sustained it during the early days is reducing.AdrianFrancis said:Fascinating as always! Rare to see my constituency, Paisley and Renfrewshire North mentioned anywhere.
Other than Stirling and Aberdeen South, Tories seem quite optimistic about retaining most seats here. I’m also expecting Labour to collapse in East Renfrewshire, with most of that vote going Blue. The Cons also have outside chances of gaining P&NP and East Lothian. East Lothian being a current Labour seat. Unless there’s another late surge for Corbyn, it goes without saying that this election will be brutal for SLab.
It’s possible, and in my opinion probable, that the reduced turnout for the SNP in North East and rural areas was due to the party’s move to the left over the years, rather than apathy or election fatigue. After the near clean-sweep of 2015, which obviously couldn’t be repeated, 2017 was a realignment of the SNP vote itself. It’s no coincidence that three of their six pre-referendum seats were lost in 2017. Some of them held for decades beforehand. Don’t expect them to come back anytime soon.
This trend can also be seen in similar seats from the most recent Holyrood elections in 2016 - with the SNP losing votes from 2011, which was well before their 2015 surge. Links below, need to copy and paste manually as this site is differentiating the brackets for some reason!
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moray_(Scottish_Parliament_constituency)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angus_South_(Scottish_Parliament_constituency)
You could argue a parallel with the "celtic fringe" seats that sustained the LibDems through the early postwar period; yet now the party is reorienting toward university seats and middle class London and the Home Counties.1 -
I know it is good not to rush important decisions, but even so I don't think you need to be a time management ninja to fit in both voting and a party on the same day.Casino_Royale said:Mysticrose said:I am certain that turnout will be down this year. Comparing it to the 1920's, when turnout was significantly higher than recent times, won't wash.
Whatever the Metropolitans like to think, weather and daylight does affect propensity to go outside. My guess is that the relative turnout dip will be among older people. In which case, who would that affect more?
Feel free to dismiss this as it's just a hunch, but I think turnout will be below 70% and I'm betting below 65%.
I’m betting on low turnout too but a bigger factor will be that people simply aren’t enthused by either of the main offerings and have better things to do.
My university friends and I organise a Christmas catch-up and party every year, and it’s on Thursday 12th December this year - diarised before the election.
None of us are cancelling it.2 -
Seats SNP cannot take unless it is an apocslypseJBriskinindyref2 said:Morning all,
Too many thicko nationalists in Scotland,
I'm on SNP under 50.5 but can't say I'm overly confident.
Orkeny & Shetland
Edinburgh South
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
Dumfriesshire, Cyldesdale and Tweedshire
So the SNP maximum is 55
Barring a collapse in tactical voting none of the Lib Dem seats are going to fall and the Lib Dems should take NE Fife.
SNP Maximum is therefore 51
SNP under 50.5 is a great bet.0 -
Interesting, Alistair - thanks. Especially for the not-especially-easy-
-to-compile table.
As a Brexiteer I'll give you a very old-fashioned look on that "try not to offend".
With the SNP it is always good to remember that they are offended anyway before you say anything.
:-)0 -
Personally I think if they are not at least 45 it will be very disappointing. Hard to see why people vote for the absolute donkeys that the London parties put up. They have no interest in Scotland and are purely sheep to vote as told. However knowing how stupid people are I am sure there will be many idiots vote for serfdom and being ruled by colonial Tory despots.ydoethur said:On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?
Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.
But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.0 -
Marquee Mark's Maxim: money flees taxation.DecrepitJohnL said:
DJL's corollary: rich people support regressive indirect taxes such as VAT (doubled by Mrs Thatcher and increased to 20 per cent by that nice Mr Osborne).Foxy said:
Foxys dictum of taxation: Fair taxes are those paid by other people.HYUFD said:Corbyn's most popular promise is taxing the rich more
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1193793415114379265?s=200 -
I'm surprised she would try. It's hard to think of one that was an unqualified success, except Sierra Leone, which Jeremy did back. I find Johnson's eagerness to support any US military action genuinely scary in the current climate.rottenborough said:Thornberry being taken apart over Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years on R4
Barely bothering to try frankly.0 -
A few percent less and we’ll be at 2010 turnout levels. Given the talk of low turnout due to the time of year and dark nights, it’s very possible. Which would have been unthinkable, so soon after the high turnout in 2015.tlg86 said:The one thing Alastair hasn't touched on in this piece is turnout. What partly contributed to SNP losses last time out was that they didn't get out their 2015 voters in the same numbers in 2017. Will this be the case this time?
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And because they continue to show chunky Tory majorities. No news there.AlastairMeeks said:
There will probably be fewer published now because they cost money and newspapers can't afford too many of them.Mysticrose said:Fewer opinion polls in this GE than any in living memory.
Fact?0 -
It wont always be the right call though. Usually it will. But not always. Doing something without thought means it isn't even a moral choice it's an instinct.Stereotomy said:
I'd rather somebody who instinctively makes the right call than somebody who analytically makes the wrong onekle4 said:
Automatically ruling out action is absurd as automatically chomping at the bit to take action.Mysticrose said:
Bravo. Good for him.rottenborough said:Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years
Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.
And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.
It's better to talk ...
Perhaps he might consider situations on their merits rather than instinctive ideology? Plenty of gung ho types should, so should he.0 -
On 11 November of all dates. You have to wonder whether tory strategists factored this in when choosing a December election.Scrapheap_as_was said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1193806465598992384?s=20Roger said:You've got to feel for Emily Thornberry. She's been sent out on the red-eye watch to expain how Jeremy Corbyn is going to improve the lot of the British armed sevices!
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Quite. The figures for those supporting other people paying taxes, free stuff generally, actions which might hit some fat cats and so are more or less irrelevant. What is interesting in these figures is the substantial numbers who are unwilling to support such populist notions.Foxy said:
Foxys dictum of taxation: Fair taxes are those paid by other people.HYUFD said:Corbyn's most popular promise is taxing the rich more
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1193793415114379265?s=20
The fact that no party is going into this election on the basis of balancing the books and substantially paying back our debts instead of impoverishing our grandchildren is interesting.0 -
It depends on the timing. When I go into the office I normally catch a bus before 7am - before the polling station opens. We now have the work Christmas party on the 12th, so if it weren't for the election I'd be out of our constituency until nearly midnight too, well after polls close at 10pm.Recidivist said:
I know it is good not to rush important decisions, but even so I don't think you need to be a time management ninja to fit in both voting and a party on the same day.Casino_Royale said:Mysticrose said:I am certain that turnout will be down this year. Comparing it to the 1920's, when turnout was significantly higher than recent times, won't wash.
Whatever the Metropolitans like to think, weather and daylight does affect propensity to go outside. My guess is that the relative turnout dip will be among older people. In which case, who would that affect more?
Feel free to dismiss this as it's just a hunch, but I think turnout will be below 70% and I'm betting below 65%.
I’m betting on low turnout too but a bigger factor will be that people simply aren’t enthused by either of the main offerings and have better things to do.
My university friends and I organise a Christmas catch-up and party every year, and it’s on Thursday 12th December this year - diarised before the election.
None of us are cancelling it.
If I didn't want to go to the hassle of organising a postal vote I might kid myself that I can leave early and make it back for 10pm, but then I might fail to do so, or my train might be delayed (I missed voting one election due to a delayed train). Or I might plan to go to work a bit late, after voting, but I'm such a creature of habit I could be on the bus before remembering about the election.
It's not that it makes it impossible to vote, but it does make it harder and that will make a difference at the margins.0 -
Nov 11th is always difficult day for me. Its 7 yrs to the day since my first wife died.0
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Good morning, islamophobes0
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Morning all
To change the mood a lot, some interesting thoughts coming out of a report on public spending by the Institute of Government which contains this nugget from Nick Davies, the Programme Director:
“The parties are coming into this election with big promises on public service spending.
“But before they turn on the taps, they need to be honest with the public about the trade-offs they are making between the level of taxation and the performance of public services.”
The monies so far pledged are the equivalent of running hard to stand still. The IoG raises serious concerns abou three areas - the funding of prisons, local Government and adult social care. Regarding the latter, any new Government needs to put in an extra £1 billion each year simply to keep pace with demand.
I'm increasingly of the view the spending and therefore borrowing commitments of both Conservative and Labour programmes are going to mean big tax rises down the road if they are implemented.0 -
Gulf War 1? Falklands?NickPalmer said:
I'm surprised she would try. It's hard to think of one that was an unqualified success, except Sierra Leone, which Jeremy did back. I find Johnson's eagerness to support any US military action genuinely scary in the current climate.rottenborough said:Thornberry being taken apart over Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years on R4
Barely bothering to try frankly.0 -
Corbyn's lack of appetite for foreign adventurism would also fix the current retention and resourcing problems. 80% of RN's ratings leave within 4 years yet the Fireplace Salesman and Sub/Lt (Acting) Mordaunt were more concerned with announcing what vessels due to be launched 15 years hence would be named.Foxy said:
He will save their lives by keeping them at home!Roger said:You've got to feel for Emily Thornberry. She's been sent out on the red-eye watch to expain how Jeremy Corbyn is going to improve the lot of the British armed sevices!
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In the impossible circumstances I think she was quite gallant, standing on the burning deck as the ship gently sank. I might have felt sorry for her but then I recalled her uncomprehending tweet about the loyalties of white van man and my heart hardened.Ishmael_Z said:
On 11 November of all dates. You have to wonder whether tory strategists factored this in when choosing a December election.Scrapheap_as_was said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1193806465598992384?s=20Roger said:You've got to feel for Emily Thornberry. She's been sent out on the red-eye watch to expain how Jeremy Corbyn is going to improve the lot of the British armed sevices!
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It will always be sad, but hopefully over time it will be less difficult. I haven’t been through the same trauma so advice can only be theoretical, but try and focus on the many happy years you had together rather than the endingSquareRoot said:Nov 11th is always difficult day for me. Its 7 yrs to the day since my first wife died.
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"The big risk for the SNP is that there is greatly increased tactical voting this time round from unionists."
Is there any evidence for any increase in tactical voting? If anything, I suspect there will be less unionist tactical voting this time. The realities of Brexit are taking attention away from nat/yoon politics, and what you see in the polling is a rise for the strongest two Remain parties.0 -
As opposed to the idiots who vote for bigoted hate filled nationalists perhaps.malcolmg said:
Personally I think if they are not at least 45 it will be very disappointing. Hard to see why people vote for the absolute donkeys that the London parties put up. They have no interest in Scotland and are purely sheep to vote as told. However knowing how stupid people are I am sure there will be many idiots vote for serfdom and being ruled by colonial Tory despots.ydoethur said:On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?
Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.
But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.0 -
No doubt Britnats on here will claim that the Nats on here will claim they are nailed on for a return to 50+ seats, on the basis of very little evidence.NorthCadboll said:No doubt the Nats on here will claim they are nailed on for a return to 50+ seats. I would simply urge caution.
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As a nationalist I am sure you will be able to recommend him a suppliermalcolmg said:
You really are an idiot , is that the "Royal We". When do you get your jackboots issued.HYUFD said:
It does if the Tories win a majority as we Tories will decide if the SNP get their indyref2, as Boris has made clear we will not grant one as on current polling there is no need for one, 2014 was meant to be a once in a generation vote, Scots voted 55% No to independence and no evidence Yes are now the majorityGallowgate said:
I could reply to this comment with the exact same thing I said in my previous post.HYUFD said:
The SNP got 50% of the vote in 2015, so if they are to get over 50% of the vote and thus claim a mandate for indyref2 they need to make gains on 2015 in votes and seatsGallowgate said:
Its not like you have an ulterior motive or inherent bias or anything though is it?HYUFD said:
Given 2015 was pre Brexit and the EU referendum, the SNP need at least 57 seats to say the Brexit vote has changed things such that indyref2 is needed in my viewydoethur said:
Thank you, Hyufd, I am aware of that, but that wasn’t my question.HYUFD said:
To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seatsydoethur said:On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?
Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.
But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.
Just because you say it doesn’t make it an absolute truth.0 -
Did you miss the very next sentence?Noo said:"The big risk for the SNP is that there is greatly increased tactical voting this time round from unionists."
Is there any evidence for any increase in tactical voting? If anything, I suspect there will be less unionist tactical voting this time. The realities of Brexit are taking attention away from nat/yoon politics, and what you see in the polling is a rise for the strongest two Remain parties.0 -
I'm a bit confused by the SNP two referendum strategy.
As I understand it their rationale for a second Scottish Independence referendum is that Brexit changes the terms on which the 2014 referendum was fought. That makes sense.
However, if we have a second Brexit referendum and vote to Remain, then doesn't that imply the justification for a second Scottish Independence referendum disappears?
And if you have the second Scottish referendum first, then isn't it immediately invalidated by the result of the second Brexit referendum (using the logic for a second Scottish referendum)?0 -
So trite.Charles said:
It will always be sad, but hopefully over time it will be less difficult. I haven’t been through the same trauma so advice can only be theoretical, but try and focus on the many happy years you had together rather than the endingSquareRoot said:Nov 11th is always difficult day for me. Its 7 yrs to the day since my first wife died.
Square Root I'm really sorry. Nov 11th is, likewise, a very difficult day for me. The years may change things, but they don't make it any easier. Hugs.0 -
Noo's Rejoinder: Denmark is a rich countryMarqueeMark said:
Marquee Mark's Maxim: money flees taxation.DecrepitJohnL said:
DJL's corollary: rich people support regressive indirect taxes such as VAT (doubled by Mrs Thatcher and increased to 20 per cent by that nice Mr Osborne).Foxy said:
Foxys dictum of taxation: Fair taxes are those paid by other people.HYUFD said:Corbyn's most popular promise is taxing the rich more
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1193793415114379265?s=200 -
Thanks, happily remarried but its always a bit of a jolt on the 11th.Charles said:
It will always be sad, but hopefully over time it will be less difficult. I haven’t been through the same trauma so advice can only be theoretical, but try and focus on the many happy years you had together rather than the endingSquareRoot said:Nov 11th is always difficult day for me. Its 7 yrs to the day since my first wife died.
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So, now we've established both unionists and nationalists are stupid, what next?Nigel_Foremain said:
As opposed to the idiots who vote for bigoted hate filled nationalists perhaps.malcolmg said:
Personally I think if they are not at least 45 it will be very disappointing. Hard to see why people vote for the absolute donkeys that the London parties put up. They have no interest in Scotland and are purely sheep to vote as told. However knowing how stupid people are I am sure there will be many idiots vote for serfdom and being ruled by colonial Tory despots.ydoethur said:On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?
Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.
But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.0 -
Gulf War is the biggest foreign policy fu$k up since the last one.Charles said:
Gulf War 1? Falklands?NickPalmer said:
I'm surprised she would try. It's hard to think of one that was an unqualified success, except Sierra Leone, which Jeremy did back. I find Johnson's eagerness to support any US military action genuinely scary in the current climate.rottenborough said:Thornberry being taken apart over Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years on R4
Barely bothering to try frankly.
And the Falklands? Wtf??? What the hell are we doing sacrificing lives to defend a bit of rock 8000 miles away. Utterly preposterous bellicose colonialist nonsense.0 -
The separatists were never going to accept the result of the first referendum - they've just got a nice brexity excuse now - Hopefully a Tory majority will occur so there won't be another, definitely not divisive, indyref2 for a while yet.OblitusSumMe said:I'm a bit confused by the SNP two referendum strategy.
As I understand it their rationale for a second Scottish Independence referendum is that Brexit changes the terms on which the 2014 referendum was fought. That makes sense.1 -
Mr. Root, my condolences
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Sadly it is true. Apparently 52% of people voted for Brexit, which is probably about as economically illiterate as it is possible to get.Banterman said:
Despite the real evidence that lower corporation tax rates increase the tax yield, both the Libdem's & Labour continue to trot out the line that they'll get more revenue with higher rates.HYUFD said:LDs propose a £10 000 skills fund for all adults of working age over 65 funded by a rise in corporation tax
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50367650
They must reckon voters are as economically illiterate as they are.0 -
Skills wallet?
FFS0 -
Don't criticise someone for trying to be niceMysticrose said:
So trite.Charles said:
It will always be sad, but hopefully over time it will be less difficult. I haven’t been through the same trauma so advice can only be theoretical, but try and focus on the many happy years you had together rather than the endingSquareRoot said:Nov 11th is always difficult day for me. Its 7 yrs to the day since my first wife died.
Square Root I'm really sorry. Nov 11th is, likewise, a very difficult day for me. The years may change things, but they don't make it any easier. Hugs.
Trite, my arse1 -
You bet they were. Falklands is the biggest crock of shit ever. Give it back to Argentina and stop behaving like C19th arseholes.Floater said:Mysticrose said:
Bravo. Good for him.rottenborough said:Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years
Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.
And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.
It's better to talk ...
According to you Gulf War 1 and the Falklands were wrong too then....0 -
11th Nov is Taranto Night and the only night of the year I drink. I am usually called upon to recount the "Hong Kong Story" which will never be told on pb.com as constitutions are too delicate to take it. It makes the "Poland Story" look like Enid Blyton.0
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Oddly, yes I did. My apologies.AlastairMeeks said:
Did you miss the very next sentence?Noo said:"The big risk for the SNP is that there is greatly increased tactical voting this time round from unionists."
Is there any evidence for any increase in tactical voting? If anything, I suspect there will be less unionist tactical voting this time. The realities of Brexit are taking attention away from nat/yoon politics, and what you see in the polling is a rise for the strongest two Remain parties.0 -
Erm, the Falklands? Self determination? Heard of that principle, or maybe you don't believe in that?Mysticrose said:
Gulf War is the biggest foreign policy fu$k up since the last one.Charles said:
Gulf War 1? Falklands?NickPalmer said:
I'm surprised she would try. It's hard to think of one that was an unqualified success, except Sierra Leone, which Jeremy did back. I find Johnson's eagerness to support any US military action genuinely scary in the current climate.rottenborough said:Thornberry being taken apart over Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years on R4
Barely bothering to try frankly.
And the Falklands? Wtf??? What the hell are we doing sacrificing lives to defend a bit of rock 8000 miles away. Utterly preposterous bellicose colonialist nonsense.1 -
I didn't realise you had broken a general rule rather than the specific one of failing to give due notice to the unique reluctance of NE Fife to be lumped together with the rest of Fife. North East Fife used to be a district council under the old Scottish local govt set up, it has such a distinct identity and the name is used so frequently locally that seeing the constituency written as Fife NE just looks crazy. Of course I haven't lived there since 1994 so maybe it is more integrated into the rest of the county than it was back then. The fact the SNP are strong across Fife probably helps, Vs when it was Labour Fife Vs Liberal/Tory NE Fife.AlastairMeeks said:
Sorry, I did know that it is city then geographical indicator and geographical indicator then county, but the betting companies make it as hard as possible to remember that.OnlyLivingBoy said:As I noted on a previous thread, it really is NE Fife not Fife NE. That is all.
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Argentina has never owned the islands. Do check your facts. Being in close proximity does not determine ownership. Maybe you think we should give the channel islands to the French?Mysticrose said:
You bet they were. Falklands is the biggest crock of shit ever. Give it back to Argentina and stop behaving like C19th arseholes.Floater said:Mysticrose said:
Bravo. Good for him.rottenborough said:Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years
Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.
And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.
It's better to talk ...
According to you Gulf War 1 and the Falklands were wrong too then....1 -
PeterMannion said:
Don't criticise someone for trying to be niceMysticrose said:
So trite.Charles said:
It will always be sad, but hopefully over time it will be less difficult. I haven’t been through the same trauma so advice can only be theoretical, but try and focus on the many happy years you had together rather than the endingSquareRoot said:Nov 11th is always difficult day for me. Its 7 yrs to the day since my first wife died.
Square Root I'm really sorry. Nov 11th is, likewise, a very difficult day for me. The years may change things, but they don't make it any easier. Hugs.
No one else can speak for your own pain. It's very personal.
I'm twitchy on it because I've been through a shed load of serious trauma and this is a bad date for me too. Anything that tries to lightly waft away the pain and sorrow gets my goat.
There was a brilliant interview with Andrew Strauss t'other day on R4. He was taking about how rubbish we are at dealing with grief in this country. We don't speak about it. We are scared to. The pain. The death.0 -
What if I and a couple of my mates fancied @Mysticrose's house/flat/brightly-coloured tent?Mysticrose said:
Gulf War is the biggest foreign policy fu$k up since the last one.Charles said:
Gulf War 1? Falklands?NickPalmer said:
I'm surprised she would try. It's hard to think of one that was an unqualified success, except Sierra Leone, which Jeremy did back. I find Johnson's eagerness to support any US military action genuinely scary in the current climate.rottenborough said:Thornberry being taken apart over Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years on R4
Barely bothering to try frankly.
And the Falklands? Wtf??? What the hell are we doing sacrificing lives to defend a bit of rock 8000 miles away. Utterly preposterous bellicose colonialist nonsense.
All good that we come over and occupy it?1 -
We shouldn't behave like colonial arseholes for a lump of rock 8000 miles away.Nigel_Foremain said:
Being in close proximity does not determine ownership.Mysticrose said:
You bet they were. Falklands is the biggest crock of shit ever. Give it back to Argentina and stop behaving like C19th arseholes.Floater said:Mysticrose said:
Bravo. Good for him.rottenborough said:Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years
Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.
And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.
It's better to talk ...
According to you Gulf War 1 and the Falklands were wrong too then....
It's pathetic.0 -
What's the difference between self determination and nationalism, in your mind?Nigel_Foremain said:
Erm, the Falklands? Self determination? Heard of that principle, or maybe you don't believe in that?Mysticrose said:
Gulf War is the biggest foreign policy fu$k up since the last one.Charles said:
Gulf War 1? Falklands?NickPalmer said:
I'm surprised she would try. It's hard to think of one that was an unqualified success, except Sierra Leone, which Jeremy did back. I find Johnson's eagerness to support any US military action genuinely scary in the current climate.rottenborough said:Thornberry being taken apart over Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years on R4
Barely bothering to try frankly.
And the Falklands? Wtf??? What the hell are we doing sacrificing lives to defend a bit of rock 8000 miles away. Utterly preposterous bellicose colonialist nonsense.0 -
I don't think Charles' advice is trite. I found it helpful.Mysticrose said:
So trite.Charles said:
It will always be sad, but hopefully over time it will be less difficult. I haven’t been through the same trauma so advice can only be theoretical, but try and focus on the many happy years you had together rather than the endingSquareRoot said:Nov 11th is always difficult day for me. Its 7 yrs to the day since my first wife died.
Square Root I'm really sorry. Nov 11th is, likewise, a very difficult day for me. The years may change things, but they don't make it any easier. Hugs.1 -
Depends how good looking you areTOPPING said:
What if I and a couple of my mates fancied @Mysticrose's house/flat/brightly-coloured tent?Mysticrose said:
Gulf War is the biggest foreign policy fu$k up since the last one.Charles said:
Gulf War 1? Falklands?NickPalmer said:
I'm surprised she would try. It's hard to think of one that was an unqualified success, except Sierra Leone, which Jeremy did back. I find Johnson's eagerness to support any US military action genuinely scary in the current climate.rottenborough said:Thornberry being taken apart over Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years on R4
Barely bothering to try frankly.
And the Falklands? Wtf??? What the hell are we doing sacrificing lives to defend a bit of rock 8000 miles away. Utterly preposterous bellicose colonialist nonsense.
All good that we come over and occupy it?0 -
You can always rely on the village idiot to add value! Pinochet Foremain has spokenNigel_Foremain said:
As opposed to the idiots who vote for bigoted hate filled nationalists perhaps.malcolmg said:
Personally I think if they are not at least 45 it will be very disappointing. Hard to see why people vote for the absolute donkeys that the London parties put up. They have no interest in Scotland and are purely sheep to vote as told. However knowing how stupid people are I am sure there will be many idiots vote for serfdom and being ruled by colonial Tory despots.ydoethur said:On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?
Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.
But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.0 -
From a bookies' perspective it makes sense to turn it round. You probably want to be thinking about East Devon and North Devon at the same time. But I should have got this right.OnlyLivingBoy said:
I didn't realise you had broken a general rule rather than the specific one of failing to give due notice to the unique reluctance of NE Fife to be lumped together with the rest of Fife. North East Fife used to be a district council under the old Scottish local govt set up, it has such a distinct identity and the name is used so frequently locally that seeing the constituency written as Fife NE just looks crazy. Of course I haven't lived there since 1994 so maybe it is more integrated into the rest of the county than it was back then. The fact the SNP are strong across Fife probably helps, Vs when it was Labour Fife Vs Liberal/Tory NE Fife.AlastairMeeks said:
Sorry, I did know that it is city then geographical indicator and geographical indicator then county, but the betting companies make it as hard as possible to remember that.OnlyLivingBoy said:As I noted on a previous thread, it really is NE Fife not Fife NE. That is all.
The ones I get really confused about are the Thanets (North and South).0 -
Absolutely not.Nigel_Foremain said:
Erm, the Falklands? Self determination? Heard of that principle, or maybe you don't believe in that?Mysticrose said:
Gulf War is the biggest foreign policy fu$k up since the last one.Charles said:
Gulf War 1? Falklands?NickPalmer said:
I'm surprised she would try. It's hard to think of one that was an unqualified success, except Sierra Leone, which Jeremy did back. I find Johnson's eagerness to support any US military action genuinely scary in the current climate.rottenborough said:Thornberry being taken apart over Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years on R4
Barely bothering to try frankly.
And the Falklands? Wtf??? What the hell are we doing sacrificing lives to defend a bit of rock 8000 miles away. Utterly preposterous bellicose colonialist nonsense.
We sailed around the world conquering places and peoples, dumping our own kith and kin and then claiming the places as our own.
Colonialism belongs to 300 years ago.0 -
The arrogance is breathtaking Malcmalcolmg said:
You really are an idiot , is that the "Royal We". When do you get your jackboots issued.HYUFD said:
It does if the Tories win a majority as we Tories will decide if the SNP get their indyref2, as Boris has made clear we will not grant one as on current polling there is no need for one, 2014 was meant to be a once in a generation vote, Scots voted 55% No to independence and no evidence Yes are now the majorityGallowgate said:
I could reply to this comment with the exact same thing I said in my previous post.HYUFD said:
The SNP got 50% of the vote in 2015, so if they are to get over 50% of the vote and thus claim a mandate for indyref2 they need to make gains on 2015 in votes and seatsGallowgate said:
Its not like you have an ulterior motive or inherent bias or anything though is it?HYUFD said:
Given 2015 was pre Brexit and the EU referendum, the SNP need at least 57 seats to say the Brexit vote has changed things such that indyref2 is needed in my viewydoethur said:
Thank you, Hyufd, I am aware of that, but that wasn’t my question.HYUFD said:
To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seatsydoethur said:On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?
Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.
But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.
Just because you say it doesn’t make it an absolute truth.
If Boris wins there will not be any victory roll from this poster, humility goes a longway1 -
Not as good looking as an international male model, obviously, but I scrub up.Mysticrose said:
Depends how good looking you areTOPPING said:
What if I and a couple of my mates fancied @Mysticrose's house/flat/brightly-coloured tent?Mysticrose said:
Gulf War is the biggest foreign policy fu$k up since the last one.Charles said:
Gulf War 1? Falklands?NickPalmer said:
I'm surprised she would try. It's hard to think of one that was an unqualified success, except Sierra Leone, which Jeremy did back. I find Johnson's eagerness to support any US military action genuinely scary in the current climate.rottenborough said:Thornberry being taken apart over Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years on R4
Barely bothering to try frankly.
And the Falklands? Wtf??? What the hell are we doing sacrificing lives to defend a bit of rock 8000 miles away. Utterly preposterous bellicose colonialist nonsense.
All good that we come over and occupy it?0 -
How can the Tories get away with asking us to vote for them to 'get Brexit done'? If they get a majority the withdrawal agreement will pass but then there will be at least two years, maybe much more, before a free trade agreement is made and we really exit. That part will make the withdrawal agreement look easy, in fact we could still be looking at a No Deal Brexit after all.
Labour's policy will mean six months for renegotiation then three more for the referendum, after which God knows what will happen.
If people really want Brexit over so we can concentrate on the important stuff then Revoke is the only option.0 -
You say this on the same page as your obliging and thoughtful remarks about Scottish independence. And you call other people idiots.Nigel_Foremain said:
Erm, the Falklands? Self determination? Heard of that principle, or maybe you don't believe in that?Mysticrose said:
Gulf War is the biggest foreign policy fu$k up since the last one.Charles said:
Gulf War 1? Falklands?NickPalmer said:
I'm surprised she would try. It's hard to think of one that was an unqualified success, except Sierra Leone, which Jeremy did back. I find Johnson's eagerness to support any US military action genuinely scary in the current climate.rottenborough said:Thornberry being taken apart over Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years on R4
Barely bothering to try frankly.
And the Falklands? Wtf??? What the hell are we doing sacrificing lives to defend a bit of rock 8000 miles away. Utterly preposterous bellicose colonialist nonsense.0 -
It's not humility. It's because deep down you know voting for a racist is wrong. But you've heaped layers of self-justification on top and smothered that nagging little voice. It's pitiful to watch.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The arrogance is breathtaking Malcmalcolmg said:
You really are an idiot , is that the "Royal We". When do you get your jackboots issued.HYUFD said:
It does if the Tories win a majority as we Tories will decide if the SNP get their indyref2, as Boris has made clear we will not grant one as on current polling there is no need for one, 2014 was meant to be a once in a generation vote, Scots voted 55% No to independence and no evidence Yes are now the majorityGallowgate said:
I could reply to this comment with the exact same thing I said in my previous post.HYUFD said:
The SNP got 50% of the vote in 2015, so if they are to get over 50% of the vote and thus claim a mandate for indyref2 they need to make gains on 2015 in votes and seatsGallowgate said:
Its not like you have an ulterior motive or inherent bias or anything though is it?HYUFD said:
Given 2015 was pre Brexit and the EU referendum, the SNP need at least 57 seats to say the Brexit vote has changed things such that indyref2 is needed in my viewydoethur said:
Thank you, Hyufd, I am aware of that, but that wasn’t my question.HYUFD said:
To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seatsydoethur said:On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?
Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.
But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.
Just because you say it doesn’t make it an absolute truth.
If Boris wins there will not be any victory roll from this poster, humility goes a longway0 -
Quite frankly I think it’s irrelevant in the modern world how people ended up inhabiting different parts of the globe, they could have come from the moon for all I care, but it is now quite right that those that have settled have the right to determine their own future.Mysticrose said:
Absolutely not.Nigel_Foremain said:
Erm, the Falklands? Self determination? Heard of that principle, or maybe you don't believe in that?Mysticrose said:
Gulf War is the biggest foreign policy fu$k up since the last one.Charles said:
Gulf War 1? Falklands?NickPalmer said:
I'm surprised she would try. It's hard to think of one that was an unqualified success, except Sierra Leone, which Jeremy did back. I find Johnson's eagerness to support any US military action genuinely scary in the current climate.rottenborough said:Thornberry being taken apart over Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years on R4
Barely bothering to try frankly.
And the Falklands? Wtf??? What the hell are we doing sacrificing lives to defend a bit of rock 8000 miles away. Utterly preposterous bellicose colonialist nonsense.
We sailed around the world conquering places and peoples, dumping our own kith and kin and then claiming the places as our own.
Colonialism belongs to 300 years ago.0 -
Mr. Rose, the people of the Falklands wish to remain British. Surely you support the right of people to freely determine their own destiny?1
-
The result in a Westminster GE is not the same result as one from a referendum.HYUFD said:
The SNP got 50% of the vote in 2015, so if they are to get over 50% of the vote and thus claim a mandate for indyref2 they need to make gains on 2015 in votes and seatsGallowgate said:
Its not like you have an ulterior motive or inherent bias or anything though is it?HYUFD said:
Given 2015 was pre Brexit and the EU referendum, the SNP need at least 57 seats to say the Brexit vote has changed things such that indyref2 is needed in my viewydoethur said:
Thank you, Hyufd, I am aware of that, but that wasn’t my question.HYUFD said:
To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seatsydoethur said:On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?
Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.
But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.
In 2015 87% of voters voted for a parties whose policy was remain.0 -
The people of Hong Kong wanted to remain British.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Rose, the people of the Falklands wish to remain British. Surely you support the right of people to freely determine their own destiny?
0 -
As you say, part of the process of transformation. The SNP have nearly completed the project of replacing Labour and, that being the case, you'd naturally expect their support in rural and more affluent areas to gently decline. If and when independence comes and they turn themselves into a more conventional social democratic party, that trend should accelerate.IanB2 said:That's an astute comment. To adapt to being the majority party its particular appeal to those areas that sustained it during the early days is reducing.
You could argue a parallel with the "celtic fringe" seats that sustained the LibDems through the early postwar period; yet now the party is reorienting toward university seats and middle class London and the Home Counties.
Under the present circumstances its very easy to imagine Labour going back down to one seat, and relations between the likely sole survivor and the Corbynites are so bad that he's not far short of being an independent Unionist anyway. I wonder if they might also go sub-10% in Scotland? They were already down to 12% in that big YouGov survey from the end of last month IIRC, and there's time enough left for that to be squeezed. I suppose it depends how accurate that value is, and whether or not the whole of that last 12% are reflexive, mostly elderly habit voters.
The marketplace for a Far Left, vaguely pro-Union and all-over-the-place on Europe party, complete with a leader even more unpopular in Scotland than Boris, can't be that big? Can it?0 -
Close proximity? The Falklands are about 300 miles from Argentina, whereas the Channel Islands are less than 100 miles from the UK.Nigel_Foremain said:
Argentina has never owned the islands. Do check your facts. Being in close proximity does not determine ownership. Maybe you think we should give the channel islands to the French?Mysticrose said:
You bet they were. Falklands is the biggest crock of shit ever. Give it back to Argentina and stop behaving like C19th arseholes.Floater said:Mysticrose said:
Bravo. Good for him.rottenborough said:Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years
Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.
And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.
It's better to talk ...
According to you Gulf War 1 and the Falklands were wrong too then....
The Falkland Islands are in the South Atlantic. They only appear to be in close proximity to Argentina in comparison to their proximity to... the UK.0 -
Most peopleon this forum consider settling is not enough and that citizenship is required to be able to vote.numbertwelve said:
Quite frankly I think it’s irrelevant in the modern world how people ended up inhabiting different parts of the globe, they could have come from the moon for all I care, but it is now quite right that those that have settled have the right to determine their own future.Mysticrose said:
Absolutely not.Nigel_Foremain said:
Erm, the Falklands? Self determination? Heard of that principle, or maybe you don't believe in that?Mysticrose said:
Gulf War is the biggest foreign policy fu$k up since the last one.Charles said:
Gulf War 1? Falklands?NickPalmer said:
I'm surprised she would try. It's hard to think of one that was an unqualified success, except Sierra Leone, which Jeremy did back. I find Johnson's eagerness to support any US military action genuinely scary in the current climate.rottenborough said:Thornberry being taken apart over Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years on R4
Barely bothering to try frankly.
And the Falklands? Wtf??? What the hell are we doing sacrificing lives to defend a bit of rock 8000 miles away. Utterly preposterous bellicose colonialist nonsense.
We sailed around the world conquering places and peoples, dumping our own kith and kin and then claiming the places as our own.
Colonialism belongs to 300 years ago.0 -
Can I buy one or do I get one free?Stereotomy said:
The skills wallets are real!HYUFD said:LDs propose a £10 000 skills fund for all adults of working age over 65 funded by a rise in corporation tax
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-503676500 -
It gets delivered with your owl.....bigjohnowls said:
Can I buy one or do I get one free?Stereotomy said:
The skills wallets are real!HYUFD said:LDs propose a £10 000 skills fund for all adults of working age over 65 funded by a rise in corporation tax
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-503676500 -
I am sorry to hear that. Best wishesSquareRoot said:Nov 11th is always difficult day for me. Its 7 yrs to the day since my first wife died.
0 -
So, I spent a few minutes thinking about the SLAB predicament, and when I'm done I find out a massive catfight has started over the Falkland Islands?!?!
Yeah, sounds pretty much like a normal morning on here.1 -
The country has been crying out for dome kind of new wallet.PeterMannion said:Skills wallet?
FFS
Tory Swinson keeps her Fracking money in her fracking wallet0 -
Obtaining a postal vote is so easy and you just renew it as and when the council contacts youOblitusSumMe said:
It depends on the timing. When I go into the office I normally catch a bus before 7am - before the polling station opens. We now have the work Christmas party on the 12th, so if it weren't for the election I'd be out of our constituency until nearly midnight too, well after polls close at 10pm.Recidivist said:
I know it is good not to rush important decisions, but even so I don't think you need to be a time management ninja to fit in both voting and a party on the same day.Casino_Royale said:Mysticrose said:I am certain that turnout will be down this year. Comparing it to the 1920's, when turnout was significantly higher than recent times, won't wash.
Whatever the Metropolitans like to think, weather and daylight does affect propensity to go outside. My guess is that the relative turnout dip will be among older people. In which case, who would that affect more?
Feel free to dismiss this as it's just a hunch, but I think turnout will be below 70% and I'm betting below 65%.
I’m betting on low turnout too but a bigger factor will be that people simply aren’t enthused by either of the main offerings and have better things to do.
My university friends and I organise a Christmas catch-up and party every year, and it’s on Thursday 12th December this year - diarised before the election.
None of us are cancelling it.
If I didn't want to go to the hassle of organising a postal vote I might kid myself that I can leave early and make it back for 10pm, but then I might fail to do so, or my train might be delayed (I missed voting one election due to a delayed train). Or I might plan to go to work a bit late, after voting, but I'm such a creature of habit I could be on the bus before remembering about the election.
It's not that it makes it impossible to vote, but it does make it harder and that will make a difference at the margins.
0 -
Morning all
The one thing the Falklands and the first Gulf War shared was they were a response to an act of aggression by one country on another. Saddam's invasion of Kuwait was as unjustified and unacceptable as was Galtieri's of the Falklands.
I don't find it hard to defend the response to those events - I find justifying the invasion of Iraq much harder and the quagmires of Afghanistan and Syria harder still to unravel in terms of trying to ascertain what the objective is or should be.0 -
I have news for you old sport, no party in the UK in total or in in the constituent members of the UK is ever going to reach the 2015 levels that the SNP reached, including the SNP.HYUFD said:
To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seatsydoethur said:On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?
Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.
But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.0 -
Indeed, download a form, print it, fill it in and post it to the Council.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Obtaining a postal vote is so easy and you just renew it as and when the council contacts youOblitusSumMe said:
It depends on the timing. When I go into the office I normally catch a bus before 7am - before the polling station opens. We now have the work Christmas party on the 12th, so if it weren't for the election I'd be out of our constituency until nearly midnight too, well after polls close at 10pm.Recidivist said:
I know it is good not to rush important decisions, but even so I don't think you need to be a time management ninja to fit in both voting and a party on the same day.Casino_Royale said:Mysticrose said:I am certain that turnout will be down this year. Comparing it to the 1920's, when turnout was significantly higher than recent times, won't wash.
Whatever the Metropolitans like to think, weather and daylight does affect propensity to go outside. My guess is that the relative turnout dip will be among older people. In which case, who would that affect more?
Feel free to dismiss this as it's just a hunch, but I think turnout will be below 70% and I'm betting below 65%.
I’m betting on low turnout too but a bigger factor will be that people simply aren’t enthused by either of the main offerings and have better things to do.
My university friends and I organise a Christmas catch-up and party every year, and it’s on Thursday 12th December this year - diarised before the election.
None of us are cancelling it.
If I didn't want to go to the hassle of organising a postal vote I might kid myself that I can leave early and make it back for 10pm, but then I might fail to do so, or my train might be delayed (I missed voting one election due to a delayed train). Or I might plan to go to work a bit late, after voting, but I'm such a creature of habit I could be on the bus before remembering about the election.
It's not that it makes it impossible to vote, but it does make it harder and that will make a difference at the margins.
Sooo hard.....0 -
Well it also goes hand in hand with questions of citizenship, which is a different but related issue. I do not agree with standing in the way of allowing someone who moves to a country settles and intends to remain to obtain citizenship of a country. Clearly there are rules processes and laws governing that and you can argue the balance is wrong is certain places but the principle seems sound enough to me.eristdoof said:
Most peopleon this forum consider settling is not enough and that citizenship is required to be able to vote.numbertwelve said:
Quite frankly I think it’s irrelevant in the modern world how people ended up inhabiting different parts of the globe, they could have come from the moon for all I care, but it is now quite right that those that have settled have the right to determine their own future.Mysticrose said:
Absolutely not.Nigel_Foremain said:
Erm, the Falklands? Self determination? Heard of that principle, or maybe you don't believe in that?Mysticrose said:
Gulf War is the biggest foreign policy fu$k up since the last one.Charles said:
Gulf War 1? Falklands?NickPalmer said:
I'm surprised she would try. It's hard to think of one that was an unqualified success, except Sierra Leone, which Jeremy did back. I find Johnson's eagerness to support any US military action genuinely scary in the current climate.rottenborough said:Thornberry being taken apart over Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years on R4
Barely bothering to try frankly.
And the Falklands? Wtf??? What the hell are we doing sacrificing lives to defend a bit of rock 8000 miles away. Utterly preposterous bellicose colonialist nonsense.
We sailed around the world conquering places and peoples, dumping our own kith and kin and then claiming the places as our own.
Colonialism belongs to 300 years ago.0 -
Yes but this year the CWU aren't delivering themBig_G_NorthWales said:
Obtaining a postal vote is so easy and you just renew it as and when the council contacts youOblitusSumMe said:
It depends on the timing. When I go into the office I normally catch a bus before 7am - before the polling station opens. We now have the work Christmas party on the 12th, so if it weren't for the election I'd be out of our constituency until nearly midnight too, well after polls close at 10pm.Recidivist said:
I know it is good not to rush important decisions, but even so I don't think you need to be a time management ninja to fit in both voting and a party on the same day.Casino_Royale said:Mysticrose said:I am certain that turnout will be down this year. Comparing it to the 1920's, when turnout was significantly higher than recent times, won't wash.
Whatever the Metropolitans like to think, weather and daylight does affect propensity to go outside. My guess is that the relative turnout dip will be among older people. In which case, who would that affect more?
Feel free to dismiss this as it's just a hunch, but I think turnout will be below 70% and I'm betting below 65%.
I’m betting on low turnout too but a bigger factor will be that people simply aren’t enthused by either of the main offerings and have better things to do.
My university friends and I organise a Christmas catch-up and party every year, and it’s on Thursday 12th December this year - diarised before the election.
None of us are cancelling it.
If I didn't want to go to the hassle of organising a postal vote I might kid myself that I can leave early and make it back for 10pm, but then I might fail to do so, or my train might be delayed (I missed voting one election due to a delayed train). Or I might plan to go to work a bit late, after voting, but I'm such a creature of habit I could be on the bus before remembering about the election.
It's not that it makes it impossible to vote, but it does make it harder and that will make a difference at the margins.0 -
The people of Hong Kong had a leasehold; the Falklanders have the freehold.eristdoof said:
The people of Hong Kong wanted to remain British.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Rose, the people of the Falklands wish to remain British. Surely you support the right of people to freely determine their own destiny?
1 -
Any claim to South Georgia is exponentially more tenuous and Argentina invaded that in 82 as well.OblitusSumMe said:
Close proximity? The Falklands are about 300 miles from Argentina, whereas the Channel Islands are less than 100 miles from the UK.Nigel_Foremain said:
Argentina has never owned the islands. Do check your facts. Being in close proximity does not determine ownership. Maybe you think we should give the channel islands to the French?Mysticrose said:
You bet they were. Falklands is the biggest crock of shit ever. Give it back to Argentina and stop behaving like C19th arseholes.Floater said:Mysticrose said:
Bravo. Good for him.rottenborough said:Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years
Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.
And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.
It's better to talk ...
According to you Gulf War 1 and the Falklands were wrong too then....
The Falkland Islands are in the South Atlantic. They only appear to be in close proximity to Argentina in comparison to their proximity to... the UK.0 -
I'm not sure I agree with the "vaguely" part of "vaguely pro union". Labour put their heart and soul into the No campaign. Sadly for them, it turns out they were on the other side of the fence from half their core support. And aside from ambiguous noises about "allowing" a referendum, I don't see any vagueness. In fact, Labour probably have the most sensible unionist position of all. The Conservatives are opposed to the democratic process completely, and the Lib Dems -- who will nevertheless get my vote -- are hypocritical about EU/indy referendums.Black_Rook said:
As you say, part of the process of transformation. The SNP have nearly completed the project of replacing Labour and, that being the case, you'd naturally expect their support in rural and more affluent areas to gently decline. If and when independence comes and they turn themselves into a more conventional social democratic party, that trend should accelerate.IanB2 said:That's an astute comment. To adapt to being the majority party its particular appeal to those areas that sustained it during the early days is reducing.
You could argue a parallel with the "celtic fringe" seats that sustained the LibDems through the early postwar period; yet now the party is reorienting toward university seats and middle class London and the Home Counties.
Under the present circumstances its very easy to imagine Labour going back down to one seat, and relations between the likely sole survivor and the Corbynites are so bad that he's not far short of being an independent Unionist anyway. I wonder if they might also go sub-10% in Scotland? They were already down to 12% in that big YouGov survey from the end of last month IIRC, and there's time enough left for that to be squeezed. I suppose it depends how accurate that value is, and whether or not the whole of that last 12% are reflexive, mostly elderly habit voters.
The marketplace for a Far Left, vaguely pro-Union and all-over-the-place on Europe party, complete with a leader even more unpopular in Scotland than Boris, can't be that big? Can it?0 -
That can also be said of those who point to a Tory Majority..Theuniondivvie said:
No doubt Britnats on here will claim that the Nats on here will claim they are nailed on for a return to 50+ seats, on the basis of very little evidence.NorthCadboll said:No doubt the Nats on here will claim they are nailed on for a return to 50+ seats. I would simply urge caution.
These UNS numbers we have been getting do not matter when it comes to the key individual battlegrounds.
The MP for Car and Wallington told a friend of mine on Saturday that he truly believes the LDs will get well over 100 seats..he really does believe it0 -
I don't want a postal vote for every election though. I don't particularly trust the post.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Obtaining a postal vote is so easy and you just renew it as and when the council contacts youOblitusSumMe said:
It depends on the timing. When I go into the office I normally catch a bus before 7am - before the polling station opens. We now have the work Christmas party on the 12th, so if it weren't for the election I'd be out of our constituency until nearly midnight too, well after polls close at 10pm.Recidivist said:
I know it is good not to rush important decisions, but even so I don't think you need to be a time management ninja to fit in both voting and a party on the same day.Casino_Royale said:Mysticrose said:I am certain that turnout will be down this year. Comparing it to the 1920's, when turnout was significantly higher than recent times, won't wash.
Whatever the Metropolitans like to think, weather and daylight does affect propensity to go outside. My guess is that the relative turnout dip will be among older people. In which case, who would that affect more?
Feel free to dismiss this as it's just a hunch, but I think turnout will be below 70% and I'm betting below 65%.
I’m betting on low turnout too but a bigger factor will be that people simply aren’t enthused by either of the main offerings and have better things to do.
My university friends and I organise a Christmas catch-up and party every year, and it’s on Thursday 12th December this year - diarised before the election.
None of us are cancelling it.
If I didn't want to go to the hassle of organising a postal vote I might kid myself that I can leave early and make it back for 10pm, but then I might fail to do so, or my train might be delayed (I missed voting one election due to a delayed train). Or I might plan to go to work a bit late, after voting, but I'm such a creature of habit I could be on the bus before remembering about the election.
It's not that it makes it impossible to vote, but it does make it harder and that will make a difference at the margins.0 -
HYUFD and his ilk are such jessies that they insist that they'd probably win a ref but refuse to have one.malcolmg said:
You really are an idiot , is that the "Royal We". When do you get your jackboots issued.HYUFD said:
It does if the Tories win a majority as we Tories will decide if the SNP get their indyref2, as Boris has made clear we will not grant one as on current polling there is no need for one, 2014 was meant to be a once in a generation vote, Scots voted 55% No to independence and no evidence Yes are now the majorityGallowgate said:
I could reply to this comment with the exact same thing I said in my previous post.HYUFD said:
The SNP got 50% of the vote in 2015, so if they are to get over 50% of the vote and thus claim a mandate for indyref2 they need to make gains on 2015 in votes and seatsGallowgate said:
Its not like you have an ulterior motive or inherent bias or anything though is it?HYUFD said:
Given 2015 was pre Brexit and the EU referendum, the SNP need at least 57 seats to say the Brexit vote has changed things such that indyref2 is needed in my viewydoethur said:
Thank you, Hyufd, I am aware of that, but that wasn’t my question.HYUFD said:
To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seatsydoethur said:On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?
Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.
But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.
Just because you say it doesn’t make it an absolute truth.
BJ and the Brexityoons, more cowardly than Corbyn Labour.0 -
Your "evidence" that Boris is a racist is far, far less convincing than my evidence that Corbyn facilitates anti-semitism.Noo said:
It's not humility. It's because deep down you know voting for a racist is wrong. But you've heaped layers of self-justification on top and smothered that nagging little voice. It's pitiful to watch.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The arrogance is breathtaking Malcmalcolmg said:
You really are an idiot , is that the "Royal We". When do you get your jackboots issued.HYUFD said:
It does if the Tories win a majority as we Tories will decide if the SNP get their indyref2, as Boris has made clear we will not grant one as on current polling there is no need for one, 2014 was meant to be a once in a generation vote, Scots voted 55% No to independence and no evidence Yes are now the majorityGallowgate said:
I could reply to this comment with the exact same thing I said in my previous post.HYUFD said:
The SNP got 50% of the vote in 2015, so if they are to get over 50% of the vote and thus claim a mandate for indyref2 they need to make gains on 2015 in votes and seatsGallowgate said:
Its not like you have an ulterior motive or inherent bias or anything though is it?HYUFD said:
Given 2015 was pre Brexit and the EU referendum, the SNP need at least 57 seats to say the Brexit vote has changed things such that indyref2 is needed in my viewydoethur said:
Thank you, Hyufd, I am aware of that, but that wasn’t my question.HYUFD said:
To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seatsydoethur said:On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?
Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.
But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.
Just because you say it doesn’t make it an absolute truth.
If Boris wins there will not be any victory roll from this poster, humility goes a longway
0 -
And there were geopolitical factors at play together with the complex issue of the lease of the NT which meant that this was a very difficult situation.eristdoof said:
The people of Hong Kong wanted to remain British.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Rose, the people of the Falklands wish to remain British. Surely you support the right of people to freely determine their own destiny?
Personally my view has always been that if HK wanted to remain British or seek its own independence it should have been allowed to do so.
0 -
Z
St Pierre and Miquelon call to say fishing rights are important.Nigel_Foremain said:
Argentina has never owned the islands. Do check your facts. Being in close proximity does not determine ownership. Maybe you think we should give the channel islands to the French?Mysticrose said:
You bet they were. Falklands is the biggest crock of shit ever. Give it back to Argentina and stop behaving like C19th arseholes.Floater said:Mysticrose said:
Bravo. Good for him.rottenborough said:Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years
Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.
And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.
It's better to talk ...
According to you Gulf War 1 and the Falklands were wrong too then....0 -
Tick the box for one election only,OblitusSumMe said:
I don't want a postal vote for every election though. I don't particularly trust the post.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Obtaining a postal vote is so easy and you just renew it as and when the council contacts youOblitusSumMe said:
It depends on the timing. When I go into the office I normally catch a bus before 7am - before the polling station opens. We now have the work Christmas party on the 12th, so if it weren't for the election I'd be out of our constituency until nearly midnight too, well after polls close at 10pm.Recidivist said:
I know it is good not to rush important decisions, but even so I don't think you need to be a time management ninja to fit in both voting and a party on the same day.Casino_Royale said:Mysticrose said:I am certain that turnout will be down this year. Comparing it to the 1920's, when turnout was significantly higher than recent times, won't wash.
Whatever the Metropolitans like to think, weather and daylight does affect propensity to go outside. My guess is that the relative turnout dip will be among older people. In which case, who would that affect more?
Feel free to dismiss this as it's just a hunch, but I think turnout will be below 70% and I'm betting below 65%.
I’m betting on low turnout too but a bigger factor will be that people simply aren’t enthused by either of the main offerings and have better things to do.
My university friends and I organise a Christmas catch-up and party every year, and it’s on Thursday 12th December this year - diarised before the election.
None of us are cancelling it.
If I didn't want to go to the hassle of organising a postal vote I might kid myself that I can leave early and make it back for 10pm, but then I might fail to do so, or my train might be delayed (I missed voting one election due to a delayed train). Or I might plan to go to work a bit late, after voting, but I'm such a creature of habit I could be on the bus before remembering about the election.
It's not that it makes it impossible to vote, but it does make it harder and that will make a difference at the margins.
Hand deliver the completed ballot to the council one weekend0 -
I don't have a printer at home. My argument isn't that it's hard, but that there are extra barriers to participation - all other things being equal those barriers will reduce turnout.philiph said:
Indeed, download a form, print it, fill it in and post it to the Council.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Obtaining a postal vote is so easy and you just renew it as and when the council contacts youOblitusSumMe said:
It depends on the timing. When I go into the office I normally catch a bus before 7am - before the polling station opens. We now have the work Christmas party on the 12th, so if it weren't for the election I'd be out of our constituency until nearly midnight too, well after polls close at 10pm.Recidivist said:
I know it is good not to rush important decisions, but even so I don't think you need to be a time management ninja to fit in both voting and a party on the same day.Casino_Royale said:Mysticrose said:I am certain that turnout will be down this year. Comparing it to the 1920's, when turnout was significantly higher than recent times, won't wash.
Whatever the Metropolitans like to think, weather and daylight does affect propensity to go outside. My guess is that the relative turnout dip will be among older people. In which case, who would that affect more?
Feel free to dismiss this as it's just a hunch, but I think turnout will be below 70% and I'm betting below 65%.
I’m betting on low turnout too but a bigger factor will be that people simply aren’t enthused by either of the main offerings and have better things to do.
My university friends and I organise a Christmas catch-up and party every year, and it’s on Thursday 12th December this year - diarised before the election.
None of us are cancelling it.
If I didn't want to go to the hassle of organising a postal vote I might kid myself that I can leave early and make it back for 10pm, but then I might fail to do so, or my train might be delayed (I missed voting one election due to a delayed train). Or I might plan to go to work a bit late, after voting, but I'm such a creature of habit I could be on the bus before remembering about the election.
It's not that it makes it impossible to vote, but it does make it harder and that will make a difference at the margins.
Sooo hard.....0 -
Hi JessOblitusSumMe said:
I don't have a printer at home. My argument isn't that it's hard, but that there are extra barriers to participation - all other things being equal those barriers will reduce turnout.philiph said:
Indeed, download a form, print it, fill it in and post it to the Council.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Obtaining a postal vote is so easy and you just renew it as and when the council contacts youOblitusSumMe said:
It depends on the timing. When I go into the office I normally catch a bus before 7am - before the polling station opens. We now have the work Christmas party on the 12th, so if it weren't for the election I'd be out of our constituency until nearly midnight too, well after polls close at 10pm.Recidivist said:
I know it is good not to rush important decisions, but even so I don't think you need to be a time management ninja to fit in both voting and a party on the same day.Casino_Royale said:Mysticrose said:I am certain that turnout will be down this year. Comparing it to the 1920's, when turnout was significantly higher than recent times, won't wash.
Whatever the Metropolitans like to think, weather and daylight does affect propensity to go outside. My guess is that the relative turnout dip will be among older people. In which case, who would that affect more?
Feel free to dismiss this as it's just a hunch, but I think turnout will be below 70% and I'm betting below 65%.
I’m betting on low turnout too but a bigger factor will be that people simply aren’t enthused by either of the main offerings and have better things to do.
My university friends and I organise a Christmas catch-up and party every year, and it’s on Thursday 12th December this year - diarised before the election.
None of us are cancelling it.
If I didn't want to go to the hassle of organising a postal vote I might kid myself that I can leave early and make it back for 10pm, but then I might fail to do so, or my train might be delayed (I missed voting one election due to a delayed train). Or I might plan to go to work a bit late, after voting, but I'm such a creature of habit I could be on the bus before remembering about the election.
It's not that it makes it impossible to vote, but it does make it harder and that will make a difference at the margins.
Sooo hard..... (and thinking about it , I don't either!)
There are less barriers.
Now you don't have to attend the polling station when open on polling day.
You can choose to go to postal.
Ask the council to send the form to you by post, they do that for those without printers.
There are no barriers.0 -
Surely Afghanistan was entirely defensible and the goal well-defined. They were harbouring al-Qaeda who launched the terrorist atrocities on the USA. The whole world would have been justified in rooting them out and the Afghan government at the time had no moral authority to complain.stodge said:Morning all
The one thing the Falklands and the first Gulf War shared was they were a response to an act of aggression by one country on another. Saddam's invasion of Kuwait was as unjustified and unacceptable as was Galtieri's of the Falklands.
I don't find it hard to defend the response to those events - I find justifying the invasion of Iraq much harder and the quagmires of Afghanistan and Syria harder still to unravel in terms of trying to ascertain what the objective is or should be.
Iraq is at the other end of the scale. We engaged in a war of aggression. The excuses we gave were a fiction. So many Iraqi and British deaths for... what? Oil?0
