politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m now a seller of LAB seats on the Spreads.
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m now a seller of LAB seats on the Spreads.
We haven’t yet looked at the series pf English regional polls that YouGov carried out last month and and only just published them. This is the first time I can recall this form of polling being carried out across England and the results help us to see where parties are doing well.
Comments
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First!0
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Not sure, losing over 50 seats seems like a lot. It would be an absymal result for Labour if they did end up in the 210 region.0
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OK.
I have a theory, which is based on a limited dataset, so may well be completely wrong:
Betting markets are overly influenced by the last election, and in particular the errors in polling in the last elections. This issue is exacerbated by polling companies changing their methodologies between elections and possibly overcorrecting.
So. 2010 - Labour did much better, and the Conservatives much worse than expected.
In 2015, the expectation, then, was that the Conservatives would fail to meet their expectations and we'd get another hung parliament. In fact, the Conservatives outperformed, and Labour underperformed.
2017, this reversed, with the Conservatives doing less well, and the Labour Party doing much better.
Based on three datapoints during which fortunes switched, I will forecast the same will happen again, and Labour will do worse than expected, and the Conservatives better.1 -
Looks bad for Labour across its former heartlands. It depends how much the LDs can do in former Tory heartlands.
Pidcock losing her seat may knock her out of the leadership race. Looks like Con gain on these figures.1 -
Hmm.
Maybe. The polling does look bad, but neither of the last two elections ended the way they started. I still suspect the incumbent will screw up a number of debates and the prime beneficiary may well be Corbyn.0 -
These YouGov data are broadly encouraging for the Conservatives, but they're already out of date and I'd be very surprised were Labour's support to remain this depressed. I'm as sure as I can be that this GE is still going to be close.
The Lib Dems are doing much better than last time, but there's already some polling evidence of squeeze and they start from a very long way behind in most constituencies. Their tally from this election should be much closer to Paddy Ashdown in 1992 than Charles Kennedy in 2005.0 -
She could accept a peerage and be leader from the Lords.Foxy said:Looks bad for Labour across its former heartlands. It depends how much the LDs can do in former Tory heartlands.
Pidcock losing her seat may knock her out of the leadership race. Looks like Con gain on these figures.
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Those LD barcharts are going to get an outing across SE, SW, and East England, and rightly so. The squeeze will be on Lab there.Black_Rook said:These YouGov data are broadly encouraging for the Conservatives, but they're already out of date and I'd be very surprised were Labour's support to remain this depressed. I'm as sure as I can be that this GE is still going to be close.
The Lib Dems are doing much better than last time, but there's already some polling evidence of squeeze and they start from a very long way behind in most constituencies. Their tally from this election should be much closer to Paddy Ashdown in 1992 than Charles Kennedy in 2005.0 -
It would be a 1983 level disaster, but this time the Tories are not doing as well to begin with and they have competition to the Right. Much as I would like Labour to receive a proper pasting, it's not going to happen (except in Scotland.)Artist said:Not sure, losing over 50 seats seems like a lot. It would be an absymal result for Labour if they did end up in the 210 region.
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I have put my hat in the ring re LibDem seats, with a forecast of 21. I'm now thinking I might have been a little stingy, and a mid 20s number may be possible for them. I'm thinking they'll manage something somewhere between Ashdown '92 and his in performance '97. (I think their vote share might also come out right in the middle of Ashdown '92 and '97 as well...)Black_Rook said:These YouGov data are broadly encouraging for the Conservatives, but they're already out of date and I'd be very surprised were Labour's support to remain this depressed. I'm as sure as I can be that this GE is still going to be close.
The Lib Dems are doing much better than last time, but there's already some polling evidence of squeeze and they start from a very long way behind in most constituencies. Their tally from this election should be much closer to Paddy Ashdown in 1992 than Charles Kennedy in 2005.
Interestingly, if you look at LibDem/Liberal General Election performances in the last 70-odd years, you see quite a lot of seat totals in the 5 to 22 level, and a few between 45 and 60-odd, and nothing in between. Which means that my new forecast is right in no man's land.0 -
In this poll it looks like the changes are larger where the Tories are going to pick up seats and smaller where they are defending them - optimally distributed for a massive Conservative victory.
Needs a big change to stop Johnson.0 -
It would actually be slightly worse than 1983. It would be Labour's worst result since 1935, without the excuses of having been reduced to just 50 seats in the previous election and having changed leader following a brutal party conference a few weeks before.Black_Rook said:
It would be a 1983 level disaster, but this time the Tories are not doing as well to begin with and they have competition to the Right. Much as I would like Labour to receive a proper pasting, it's not going to happen (except in Scotland.)Artist said:Not sure, losing over 50 seats seems like a lot. It would be an absymal result for Labour if they did end up in the 210 region.
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I'm incapable of believing they could do so badly. As Black_Rook notes its 1983 like, with the Tories not doing as well. The regional polling makes it seem credible, if you think it itself is credible.Artist said:Not sure, losing over 50 seats seems like a lot. It would be an absymal result for Labour if they did end up in the 210 region.
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Is there any chance it could be much bigger in the marginals and a huge swing to Labour in Uxbridge?OblitusSumMe said:In this poll it looks like the changes are larger where the Tories are going to pick up seats and smaller where they are defending them - optimally distributed for a massive Conservative victory.
Needs a big change to stop Johnson.2 -
Except that Labour's support has a much higher floor than does that of the Lib Dems. There's an irreducible core of committed Socialists and Labour robots who won't vote for anybody else, regardless of Europe or any other issues - and who certainly haven't forgiven or forgotten the Coalition, either.Foxy said:
Those LD barcharts are going to get an outing across SE, SW, and East England, and rightly so. The squeeze will be on Lab there.Black_Rook said:These YouGov data are broadly encouraging for the Conservatives, but they're already out of date and I'd be very surprised were Labour's support to remain this depressed. I'm as sure as I can be that this GE is still going to be close.
The Lib Dems are doing much better than last time, but there's already some polling evidence of squeeze and they start from a very long way behind in most constituencies. Their tally from this election should be much closer to Paddy Ashdown in 1992 than Charles Kennedy in 2005.
Labour defections won't be enough to get the yellows over the line in any more than a handful of Tory-held seats.0 -
Anybody for "Were you up for Pidcock?"Foxy said:Looks bad for Labour across its former heartlands. It depends how much the LDs can do in former Tory heartlands.
Pidcock losing her seat may knock her out of the leadership race. Looks like Con gain on these figures.0 -
No!JohnWheatley said:
Anybody for "Were you up for Pidcock?"Foxy said:Looks bad for Labour across its former heartlands. It depends how much the LDs can do in former Tory heartlands.
Pidcock losing her seat may knock her out of the leadership race. Looks like Con gain on these figures.0 -
Labour seem to be further down in every region than they are in the national polling. Usually I would think it is London making up for the difference, but they seem to be down there too. Where is the mismatch between regional and national polls coming from?0
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Some models are showing even fewer seats for Labour. 168 with this Yougov poll.kle4 said:
I'm incapable of believing they could do so badly. As Black_Rook notes its 1983 like, with the Tories not doing as well. The regional polling makes it seem credible, if you think it itself is credible.Artist said:Not sure, losing over 50 seats seems like a lot. It would be an absymal result for Labour if they did end up in the 210 region.
https://mobile.twitter.com/gbrpolls/status/11931981275887452170 -
In 1983 Labour won 41 seats in Scotland. They could credibly hold just one this time, which would mean a 1983 like result in England and Wales would leave them with 169 seats overall. ~200 across the UK would be some distance better [for Labour] in England and Wales than 1983.kle4 said:
I'm incapable of believing they could do so badly. As Black_Rook notes its 1983 like, with the Tories not doing as well. The regional polling makes it seem credible, if you think it itself is credible.Artist said:Not sure, losing over 50 seats seems like a lot. It would be an absymal result for Labour if they did end up in the 210 region.
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Bear in mind that in 1983 there were a raft of Scottish Labour seats and only two in the south outside London. Even on 210, Labour would have a presence in Middle Englandydoethur said:
It would actually be slightly worse than 1983. It would be Labour's worst result since 1935, without the excuses of having been reduced to just 50 seats in the previous election and having changed leader following a brutal party conference a few weeks before.Black_Rook said:
It would be a 1983 level disaster, but this time the Tories are not doing as well to begin with and they have competition to the Right. Much as I would like Labour to receive a proper pasting, it's not going to happen (except in Scotland.)Artist said:Not sure, losing over 50 seats seems like a lot. It would be an absymal result for Labour if they did end up in the 210 region.
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My back of her at big odds will not be so smug city if that were to happen.Foxy said:Looks bad for Labour across its former heartlands. It depends how much the LDs can do in former Tory heartlands.
Pidcock losing her seat may knock her out of the leadership race. Looks like Con gain on these figures.0 -
The worst take is saying "it didn't happen last time so it wont happen this time".0
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Assuming Labour does badly in Scotland, then the regional swing in this poll would see them down to 120-140 seats, which would be extraordinary. Simply, the Conservative Party is holding up well where it is competing for Labour leave seats, and is down where the Labour Party is not in contention.
OGH's bet is an excellent one, because the assumption is that the Labour Party will do better than the polls. (As an aside, if these polls are correct, the LDs are also going to outperform my expectations.)0 -
Yes, all that is true. Would still be a shockingly bad result.JohnWheatley said:
Bear in mind that in 1983 there were a raft of Scottish Labour seats and only two in the south outside London. Even on 210, Labour would have a presence in Middle Englandydoethur said:
It would actually be slightly worse than 1983. It would be Labour's worst result since 1935, without the excuses of having been reduced to just 50 seats in the previous election and having changed leader following a brutal party conference a few weeks before.Black_Rook said:
It would be a 1983 level disaster, but this time the Tories are not doing as well to begin with and they have competition to the Right. Much as I would like Labour to receive a proper pasting, it's not going to happen (except in Scotland.)Artist said:Not sure, losing over 50 seats seems like a lot. It would be an absymal result for Labour if they did end up in the 210 region.
Edit- btw, I think it was three survivors outside London - Bristol South, Thurrock and Ipswich (which somehow Labour lost in 1987 instead).0 -
A comfortable Tory majority and Boris loses his seat.ydoethur said:
Is there any chance it could be much bigger in the marginals and a huge swing to Labour in Uxbridge?OblitusSumMe said:In this poll it looks like the changes are larger where the Tories are going to pick up seats and smaller where they are defending them - optimally distributed for a massive Conservative victory.
Needs a big change to stop Johnson.
I honestly could live with that.1 -
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Given BF moves there must be a bad poll for Labour soon to emerge. That or Burgon and Abbot are on the TV tomorrow.0
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I think it will be worse for Lab than 1983. They are now losing the English coalfields and Wales to add their lost Scottish seats.Black_Rook said:
It would be a 1983 level disaster, but this time the Tories are not doing as well to begin with and they have competition to the Right. Much as I would like Labour to receive a proper pasting, it's not going to happen (except in Scotland.)Artist said:Not sure, losing over 50 seats seems like a lot. It would be an absymal result for Labour if they did end up in the 210 region.
I cannot see a single Lab gain to compensate, and neither can I see enough LD gains.0 -
FPT:RobD said:
They certainly didn't get a majority!Beibheirli_C said:
I am also pretty sure Labour did not win the 2017 election. We have a Tory govt.RobD said:
I'm pretty sure the exact same thing was said in 2017.Beibheirli_C said:
The Tories are not going to lose this election. How can they? There is no opposition to beat. Boris will get a majority and Labour and the LibDems will look like fools for thinking they could win this.AndyJS said:Just checked Betfair and a Tory majority has just moved back into "more likely than not" territory.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.136297311
Maybe not, but Corbyn is still LotO
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If that happened, and I think it's an unlikely but amusing possibility, who do you think would be the next Conservative leader? Priti Patel?nunu2 said:
A comfortable Tory majority and Boris loses his seat.ydoethur said:
Is there any chance it could be much bigger in the marginals and a huge swing to Labour in Uxbridge?OblitusSumMe said:In this poll it looks like the changes are larger where the Tories are going to pick up seats and smaller where they are defending them - optimally distributed for a massive Conservative victory.
Needs a big change to stop Johnson.
I honestly could live with that.0 -
Mr. Omnium, the new promise for 100,000 police at a cost of a mere £37 will surely turn the tide in Labour's favour?0
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Robot is Czech for forced worker as I recall, from the seminal play "Rossums Universal Robots"kinabalu said:@Black_Rook
Can you stop saying "robots" please.
It's becoming a little robotic.0 -
Gove might be more likely, or Raab. Patel could replace Javid if that happens though.rcs1000 said:
If that happened, and I think it's an unlikely but amusing possibility, who do you think would be the next Conservative leader? Priti Patel?nunu2 said:
A comfortable Tory majority and Boris loses his seat.ydoethur said:
Is there any chance it could be much bigger in the marginals and a huge swing to Labour in Uxbridge?OblitusSumMe said:In this poll it looks like the changes are larger where the Tories are going to pick up seats and smaller where they are defending them - optimally distributed for a massive Conservative victory.
Needs a big change to stop Johnson.
I honestly could live with that.0 -
It's a fair cop. On the other hand...OblitusSumMe said:
In 1983 Labour won 41 seats in Scotland. They could credibly hold just one this time, which would mean a 1983 like result in England and Wales would leave them with 169 seats overall. ~200 across the UK would be some distance better [for Labour] in England and Wales than 1983.kle4 said:
I'm incapable of believing they could do so badly. As Black_Rook notes its 1983 like, with the Tories not doing as well. The regional polling makes it seem credible, if you think it itself is credible.Artist said:Not sure, losing over 50 seats seems like a lot. It would be an absymal result for Labour if they did end up in the 210 region.
No it wouldn't. Labour has little presence left as things currently stand in Southern England outside of London, or anywhere in rural England except in the far North. A drubbing on that scale would leave Labour confined to the major conurbations and the South Wales valleys, and almost nowhere else.JohnWheatley said:
Bear in mind that in 1983 there were a raft of Scottish Labour seats and only two in the south outside London. Even on 210, Labour would have a presence in Middle Englandydoethur said:
It would actually be slightly worse than 1983. It would be Labour's worst result since 1935, without the excuses of having been reduced to just 50 seats in the previous election and having changed leader following a brutal party conference a few weeks before.Black_Rook said:
It would be a 1983 level disaster, but this time the Tories are not doing as well to begin with and they have competition to the Right. Much as I would like Labour to receive a proper pasting, it's not going to happen (except in Scotland.)Artist said:Not sure, losing over 50 seats seems like a lot. It would be an absymal result for Labour if they did end up in the 210 region.
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***ots is clearly racist.
The correct term is 'synthetic life form'.
.... 0 -
Sorry, it simply takes less time to type than tribal loyalty voters. This is helpful when one is away from home and coping without a proper keyboard.kinabalu said:@Black_Rook
Can you stop saying "robots" please.
It's becoming a little robotic.0 -
Raab seems better placed than Gove. Is Patel smart enough to be Chancellor?OblitusSumMe said:
Gove might be more likely, or Raab. Patel could replace Javid if that happens though.rcs1000 said:
If that happened, and I think it's an unlikely but amusing possibility, who do you think would be the next Conservative leader? Priti Patel?nunu2 said:
A comfortable Tory majority and Boris loses his seat.ydoethur said:
Is there any chance it could be much bigger in the marginals and a huge swing to Labour in Uxbridge?OblitusSumMe said:In this poll it looks like the changes are larger where the Tories are going to pick up seats and smaller where they are defending them - optimally distributed for a massive Conservative victory.
Needs a big change to stop Johnson.
I honestly could live with that.0 -
The media hysteria over the YouGov regional polling completely ignores the same type of polling which was done in May 2017 .
I’d advise people to look at how awful Labour were doing then , indeed the Tories are doing worse now compared to the same time period before the June 2017 GE.
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I do love Labour maths.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Omnium, the new promise for 100,000 police at a cost of a mere £37 will surely turn the tide in Labour's favour?
This was a recent highlight
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1174966536777293824
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In my pessimistic moments, I'm afraid you might be right - the moment Corbyn announces his tidal wave of free stuff, his, er, android followers will have their memories wiped, forget all about his epic shitness and surge back to Labour.Black_Rook said:
Except that Labour's support has a much higher floor than does that of the Lib Dems. There's an irreducible core of committed Socialists and Labour robots who won't vote for anybody else, regardless of Europe or any other issues - and who certainly haven't forgiven or forgotten the Coalition, either.Foxy said:
Those LD barcharts are going to get an outing across SE, SW, and East England, and rightly so. The squeeze will be on Lab there.Black_Rook said:These YouGov data are broadly encouraging for the Conservatives, but they're already out of date and I'd be very surprised were Labour's support to remain this depressed. I'm as sure as I can be that this GE is still going to be close.
The Lib Dems are doing much better than last time, but there's already some polling evidence of squeeze and they start from a very long way behind in most constituencies. Their tally from this election should be much closer to Paddy Ashdown in 1992 than Charles Kennedy in 2005.
Labour defections won't be enough to get the yellows over the line in any more than a handful of Tory-held seats.
It's happened before...0 -
North Wales I can see going, the South and the old Northern English coalfields not so much. Too many hefty majorities, too much ingrained hatred of the Tories. But I stand to be corrected by events...Foxy said:
I think it will be worse for Lab than 1983. They are now losing the English coalfields and Wales to add their lost Scottish seats.Black_Rook said:
It would be a 1983 level disaster, but this time the Tories are not doing as well to begin with and they have competition to the Right. Much as I would like Labour to receive a proper pasting, it's not going to happen (except in Scotland.)Artist said:Not sure, losing over 50 seats seems like a lot. It would be an absymal result for Labour if they did end up in the 210 region.
I cannot see a single Lab gain to compensate, and neither can I see enough LD gains.0 -
Amazing how you slag off Labour voters and yet the same apparent Tory robots are given a free pass !blueblue said:
In my pessimistic moments, I'm afraid you might be right - the moment Corbyn announces his tidal wave of free stuff, his, er, android followers will have their memories wiped, forget all about his epic shitness and surge back to Labour.Black_Rook said:
Except that Labour's support has a much higher floor than does that of the Lib Dems. There's an irreducible core of committed Socialists and Labour robots who won't vote for anybody else, regardless of Europe or any other issues - and who certainly haven't forgiven or forgotten the Coalition, either.Foxy said:
Those LD barcharts are going to get an outing across SE, SW, and East England, and rightly so. The squeeze will be on Lab there.Black_Rook said:These YouGov data are broadly encouraging for the Conservatives, but they're already out of date and I'd be very surprised were Labour's support to remain this depressed. I'm as sure as I can be that this GE is still going to be close.
The Lib Dems are doing much better than last time, but there's already some polling evidence of squeeze and they start from a very long way behind in most constituencies. Their tally from this election should be much closer to Paddy Ashdown in 1992 than Charles Kennedy in 2005.
Labour defections won't be enough to get the yellows over the line in any more than a handful of Tory-held seats.
It's happened before...0 -
I, for one, welcome our robot overlords, they are better than our current shower, better music too.Morris_Dancer said:***ots is clearly racist.
The correct term is 'synthetic life form'.
....
https://youtu.be/u_DZmgArjqU
Off to the match now, a tasty but soggy affair. I hate the gunners...0 -
It's already started. Watch the new raft of polls for tomorrow's papers. The Labour average will be up again.blueblue said:
In my pessimistic moments, I'm afraid you might be right - the moment Corbyn announces his tidal wave of free stuff, his, er, android followers will have their memories wiped, forget all about his epic shitness and surge back to Labour.Black_Rook said:
Except that Labour's support has a much higher floor than does that of the Lib Dems. There's an irreducible core of committed Socialists and Labour robots who won't vote for anybody else, regardless of Europe or any other issues - and who certainly haven't forgiven or forgotten the Coalition, either.Foxy said:
Those LD barcharts are going to get an outing across SE, SW, and East England, and rightly so. The squeeze will be on Lab there.Black_Rook said:These YouGov data are broadly encouraging for the Conservatives, but they're already out of date and I'd be very surprised were Labour's support to remain this depressed. I'm as sure as I can be that this GE is still going to be close.
The Lib Dems are doing much better than last time, but there's already some polling evidence of squeeze and they start from a very long way behind in most constituencies. Their tally from this election should be much closer to Paddy Ashdown in 1992 than Charles Kennedy in 2005.
Labour defections won't be enough to get the yellows over the line in any more than a handful of Tory-held seats.
It's happened before...0 -
Ripley:Morris_Dancer said:***ots is clearly racist.
The correct term is 'synthetic life form'.
....
You never said anything about an android being on board, why not?
Burke:
It never uhm, never occurred to me. It's common practice, we always have a synthetic on board.
Bishop:
I prefer the term "Artificial Person" myself.0 -
Labour were gifted some monumental bonuses at the last election, namely Theresa May and the Dementia Tax. Corbyn also defied expectations, starting from a base of practically zero. It was a perfect storm for Labour. Now, the constant drip drip of the anti Semitism stuff has started to stick. And a lot of Labour voters - and plenty of others too - gave cuddly old grandpa Corbyn the benfit of the doubt then. Those very same people will now see him for what he is - a nasty old bastard.Morris_Dancer said:Hmm.
Maybe. The polling does look bad, but neither of the last two elections ended the way they started. I still suspect the incumbent will screw up a number of debates and the prime beneficiary may well be Corbyn.
But most importantly Brexit was not even on the horizon then. Corbyn's pathological refusal to state which side he supports will sink Labour in both Leave and Remain seats.
All Boris has to do is stay disciplined in the debates - tricky for him at times granted - and then let Corbyn dig Labour's Brexit sized grave all by himself.0 -
Patel isn't smart enough to be Home Secretary, yet here we are.Gabs2 said:
Raab seems better placed than Gove. Is Patel smart enough to be Chancellor?OblitusSumMe said:
Gove might be more likely, or Raab. Patel could replace Javid if that happens though.rcs1000 said:
If that happened, and I think it's an unlikely but amusing possibility, who do you think would be the next Conservative leader? Priti Patel?nunu2 said:
A comfortable Tory majority and Boris loses his seat.ydoethur said:
Is there any chance it could be much bigger in the marginals and a huge swing to Labour in Uxbridge?OblitusSumMe said:In this poll it looks like the changes are larger where the Tories are going to pick up seats and smaller where they are defending them - optimally distributed for a massive Conservative victory.
Needs a big change to stop Johnson.
I honestly could live with that.3 -
There probably is, but there's also inertia. The closer we get to polling day without things changing, the better price you would expect to obtain if you wish to bet that things are going to change.Omnium said:Given BF moves there must be a bad poll for Labour soon to emerge. That or Burgon and Abbot are on the TV tomorrow.
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Damn you! But it's what I expect as well.Black_Rook said:
It's already started. Watch the new raft of polls for tomorrow's papers. The Labour average will be up again.blueblue said:
In my pessimistic moments, I'm afraid you might be right - the moment Corbyn announces his tidal wave of free stuff, his, er, android followers will have their memories wiped, forget all about his epic shitness and surge back to Labour.Black_Rook said:
Except that Labour's support has a much higher floor than does that of the Lib Dems. There's an irreducible core of committed Socialists and Labour robots who won't vote for anybody else, regardless of Europe or any other issues - and who certainly haven't forgiven or forgotten the Coalition, either.Foxy said:
Those LD barcharts are going to get an outing across SE, SW, and East England, and rightly so. The squeeze will be on Lab there.Black_Rook said:These YouGov data are broadly encouraging for the Conservatives, but they're already out of date and I'd be very surprised were Labour's support to remain this depressed. I'm as sure as I can be that this GE is still going to be close.
The Lib Dems are doing much better than last time, but there's already some polling evidence of squeeze and they start from a very long way behind in most constituencies. Their tally from this election should be much closer to Paddy Ashdown in 1992 than Charles Kennedy in 2005.
Labour defections won't be enough to get the yellows over the line in any more than a handful of Tory-held seats.
It's happened before...
Why why why can't Labour get the electoral kicking they so richly deserve, just this once? It's been a long time since 1983...0 -
I seem to recall reading that a result of this kind would mean that the surviving members of the Cabinet would have to meet and elect a stand in to send to the Queen as their nominee for Prime Minister. It seems highly likely that this individual would then be elected unopposed as Tory leader.rcs1000 said:
If that happened, and I think it's an unlikely but amusing possibility, who do you think would be the next Conservative leader? Priti Patel?nunu2 said:
A comfortable Tory majority and Boris loses his seat.ydoethur said:
Is there any chance it could be much bigger in the marginals and a huge swing to Labour in Uxbridge?OblitusSumMe said:In this poll it looks like the changes are larger where the Tories are going to pick up seats and smaller where they are defending them - optimally distributed for a massive Conservative victory.
Needs a big change to stop Johnson.
I honestly could live with that.
Anyway, should that happen I reckon that they'd pick Gove. Which would be somewhat ironic.0 -
He would remain PM in that scenario and some poor sod would be made to vacate a safe Tory seat.nunu2 said:
A comfortable Tory majority and Boris loses his seat.ydoethur said:
Is there any chance it could be much bigger in the marginals and a huge swing to Labour in Uxbridge?OblitusSumMe said:In this poll it looks like the changes are larger where the Tories are going to pick up seats and smaller where they are defending them - optimally distributed for a massive Conservative victory.
Needs a big change to stop Johnson.
I honestly could live with that.
Imagine the subsequent by election though. It would be an absolute circus, and if he lost again he would have no option but to resign. (See Patrick Gordon-Walker).0 -
Entirely true, and a good point. I think its probably a little early to see quite such an impact from that just yet though.oldpolitics said:
There probably is, but there's also inertia. The closer we get to polling day without things changing, the better price you would expect to obtain if you wish to bet that things are going to change.Omnium said:Given BF moves there must be a bad poll for Labour soon to emerge. That or Burgon and Abbot are on the TV tomorrow.
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Because the election is (almost) a forced choice and the other lot are at least as bad if not worse.blueblue said:
Damn you! But it's what I expect as well.Black_Rook said:
It's already started. Watch the new raft of polls for tomorrow's papers. The Labour average will be up again.blueblue said:
In my pessimistic moments, I'm afraid you might be right - the moment Corbyn announces his tidal wave of free stuff, his, er, android followers will have their memories wiped, forget all about his epic shitness and surge back to Labour.Black_Rook said:
Except that Labour's support has a much higher floor than does that of the Lib Dems. There's an irreducible core of committed Socialists and Labour robots who won't vote for anybody else, regardless of Europe or any other issues - and who certainly haven't forgiven or forgotten the Coalition, either.Foxy said:
Those LD barcharts are going to get an outing across SE, SW, and East England, and rightly so. The squeeze will be on Lab there.Black_Rook said:These YouGov data are broadly encouraging for the Conservatives, but they're already out of date and I'd be very surprised were Labour's support to remain this depressed. I'm as sure as I can be that this GE is still going to be close.
The Lib Dems are doing much better than last time, but there's already some polling evidence of squeeze and they start from a very long way behind in most constituencies. Their tally from this election should be much closer to Paddy Ashdown in 1992 than Charles Kennedy in 2005.
Labour defections won't be enough to get the yellows over the line in any more than a handful of Tory-held seats.
It's happened before...
Why why why can't Labour get the electoral kicking they so richly deserve, just this once? It's been a long time since 1983...0 -
Speaking of Tory robots..nico67 said:
Amazing how you slag off Labour voters and yet the same apparent Tory robots are given a free pass !blueblue said:
In my pessimistic moments, I'm afraid you might be right - the moment Corbyn announces his tidal wave of free stuff, his, er, android followers will have their memories wiped, forget all about his epic shitness and surge back to Labour.Black_Rook said:
Except that Labour's support has a much higher floor than does that of the Lib Dems. There's an irreducible core of committed Socialists and Labour robots who won't vote for anybody else, regardless of Europe or any other issues - and who certainly haven't forgiven or forgotten the Coalition, either.Foxy said:
Those LD barcharts are going to get an outing across SE, SW, and East England, and rightly so. The squeeze will be on Lab there.Black_Rook said:These YouGov data are broadly encouraging for the Conservatives, but they're already out of date and I'd be very surprised were Labour's support to remain this depressed. I'm as sure as I can be that this GE is still going to be close.
The Lib Dems are doing much better than last time, but there's already some polling evidence of squeeze and they start from a very long way behind in most constituencies. Their tally from this election should be much closer to Paddy Ashdown in 1992 than Charles Kennedy in 2005.
Labour defections won't be enough to get the yellows over the line in any more than a handful of Tory-held seats.
It's happened before...
https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/1193191248733069312?s=20
They're still working on the AI aspect.0 -
Because most voters do so unthinkingly and from habit. There's a very good reason why the Tories have polled over 30% in every General Election since 1835.blueblue said:
Damn you! But it's what I expect as well.Black_Rook said:
It's already started. Watch the new raft of polls for tomorrow's papers. The Labour average will be up again.blueblue said:
In my pessimistic moments, I'm afraid you might be right - the moment Corbyn announces his tidal wave of free stuff, his, er, android followers will have their memories wiped, forget all about his epic shitness and surge back to Labour.Black_Rook said:
Except that Labour's support has a much higher floor than does that of the Lib Dems. There's an irreducible core of committed Socialists and Labour robots who won't vote for anybody else, regardless of Europe or any other issues - and who certainly haven't forgiven or forgotten the Coalition, either.Foxy said:
Those LD barcharts are going to get an outing across SE, SW, and East England, and rightly so. The squeeze will be on Lab there.Black_Rook said:These YouGov data are broadly encouraging for the Conservatives, but they're already out of date and I'd be very surprised were Labour's support to remain this depressed. I'm as sure as I can be that this GE is still going to be close.
The Lib Dems are doing much better than last time, but there's already some polling evidence of squeeze and they start from a very long way behind in most constituencies. Their tally from this election should be much closer to Paddy Ashdown in 1992 than Charles Kennedy in 2005.
Labour defections won't be enough to get the yellows over the line in any more than a handful of Tory-held seats.
It's happened before...
Why why why can't Labour get the electoral kicking they so richly deserve, just this once? It's been a long time since 1983...
In order for Labour to be replaced in England there would need to be some sort of epochal upheaval here to match that which saw Labour overthrown by the SNP in Scotland. Sadly there is no sign of any such thing in prospect.0 -
Johnson's visits to schools and hospitals still going well I see.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/boris-johnson-sixth-form-students-trapped-room-nottinghamshire-general-election-a9196231.html0 -
No, Labour is far worse - possibly the most appalling incarnation in its history. At least Foot had a formidable intellect and oratorical powers to go with his far left loopiness!DecrepitJohnL said:
Because the election is (almost) a forced choice and the other lot are at least as bad if not worse.blueblue said:
Damn you! But it's what I expect as well.Black_Rook said:
It's already started. Watch the new raft of polls for tomorrow's papers. The Labour average will be up again.blueblue said:
In my pessimistic moments, I'm afraid you might be right - the moment Corbyn announces his tidal wave of free stuff, his, er, android followers will have their memories wiped, forget all about his epic shitness and surge back to Labour.Black_Rook said:
Except that Labour's support has a much higher floor than does that of the Lib Dems. There's an irreducible core of committed Socialists and Labour robots who won't vote for anybody else, regardless of Europe or any other issues - and who certainly haven't forgiven or forgotten the Coalition, either.Foxy said:
Those LD barcharts are going to get an outing across SE, SW, and East England, and rightly so. The squeeze will be on Lab there.Black_Rook said:These YouGov data are broadly encouraging for the Conservatives, but they're already out of date and I'd be very surprised were Labour's support to remain this depressed. I'm as sure as I can be that this GE is still going to be close.
The Lib Dems are doing much better than last time, but there's already some polling evidence of squeeze and they start from a very long way behind in most constituencies. Their tally from this election should be much closer to Paddy Ashdown in 1992 than Charles Kennedy in 2005.
Labour defections won't be enough to get the yellows over the line in any more than a handful of Tory-held seats.
It's happened before...
Why why why can't Labour get the electoral kicking they so richly deserve, just this once? It's been a long time since 1983...0 -
Was canvassing some areas of social housing in the Totnes constituency today. The rural poor.
I was genuinally astonsished at how well the Cons are doing there. Had two neighbouring houses who each said that Dr. Sarah Wollaston was "a waste of space". Sorry, PClipp.
Corbyn is voter-repellent. Unprompted diatribes again.
On the flip side, I did have my first incandescent Leftie at my being on his doorstep. Tories are "all fucking arseholes", apparently.0 -
GODSDAMN IT YOU GOT THERE BEFORE ME!Ishmael_Z said:
Ripley:Morris_Dancer said:***ots is clearly racist.
The correct term is 'synthetic life form'.
....
You never said anything about an android being on board, why not?
Burke:
It never uhm, never occurred to me. It's common practice, we always have a synthetic on board.
Bishop:
I prefer the term "Artificial Person" myself.
Still, not bad...
...for a human 0 -
Matthew Goodwin noted that the Labour vote intention among the young is up about 20% since the time of this regional polling. For what it's worth.0
-
Funny isn't it that a couple of days ago, OGH felt the need to headline us with the "news" that the Tories were "down a touch" on the spreads, actually by <1% from a mid-spread quote of 326 to 323 seats? Yet he chooses to ignore the fact that since then, Spreadex's mid-quote is up by six seats to a record high for this campaign of 329 seats. Surely the real news is that the Tories mid-spread price has increased by no less than 25 seats over just the last six weeks?0
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Amateurs! The keyboard player from "Sparks" - now, there was a robotFoxy said:
I, for one, welcome our robot overlords, they are better than our current shower, better music too.Morris_Dancer said:***ots is clearly racist.
The correct term is 'synthetic life form'.
....
youtu.be/u_DZmgArjqU
Off to the match now, a tasty but soggy affair. I hate the gunners...
0 -
Technical question:
@NickPalmer said a few threads ago that YouGov had just added the last few polls together to make regional numbers. I.e. basically aggregate sub samples
I’m cynical about his fidelity when political convenience takes precedence
So is he right or are these properly weighted & balanced regional polls?0 -
I don't think Labour are remotely ready for what's coming in 4 weeks 5 days time0
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Michael Foot was a moderate compared to Corbyn, as barking mad as he was. All of the moderate Labour MPs knew what Corbyn and McDonnell were/are, so the question is, why didn't they have the courage to split completely off the Labour party and form their own party? They would have greatly outnumbered the remaining Corbynistas in Parliament and could have become an electoral force in their won right. I just can't believe so many of them are fighting to put Corbyn into number 10.blueblue said:
No, Labour is far worse - possibly the most appalling incarnation in its history. At least Foot had a formidable intellect and oratorical powers to go with his far left loopiness!DecrepitJohnL said:
Because the election is (almost) a forced choice and the other lot are at least as bad if not worse.blueblue said:
Damn you! But it's what I expect as well.Black_Rook said:
It's already started. Watch the new raft of polls for tomorrow's papers. The Labour average will be up again.blueblue said:
In my pessimistic moments, I'm afraid you might be right - the moment Corbyn announces his tidal wave of free stuff, his, er, android followers will have their memories wiped, forget all about his epic shitness and surge back to Labour.Black_Rook said:
Except that Labour's support has a much higher floor than does that of the Lib Dems. There's an irreducible core of committed Socialists and Labour robots who won't vote for anybody else, regardless of Europe or any other issues - and who certainly haven't forgiven or forgotten the Coalition, either.Foxy said:
Those LD barcharts are going to get an outing across SE, SW, and East England, and rightly so. The squeeze will be on Lab there.Black_Rook said:These YouGov data are broadly encouraging for the Conservatives, but they're already out of date and I'd be very surprised were Labour's support to remain this depressed. I'm as sure as I can be that this GE is still going to be close.
The Lib Dems are doing much better than last time, but there's already some polling evidence of squeeze and they start from a very long way behind in most constituencies. Their tally from this election should be much closer to Paddy Ashdown in 1992 than Charles Kennedy in 2005.
Labour defections won't be enough to get the yellows over the line in any more than a handful of Tory-held seats.
It's happened before...
Why why why can't Labour get the electoral kicking they so richly deserve, just this once? It's been a long time since 1983...0 -
Government?dyedwoolie said:I don't think Labour are remotely ready for what's coming in 4 weeks 5 days time
5 -
I think notRobD said:
Government?dyedwoolie said:I don't think Labour are remotely ready for what's coming in 4 weeks 5 days time
They are more likely to be sub 150 than over 2000 -
Party trumps personality. The last Conservative MP was a waste of space but this time it will be different.MarqueeMark said:Was canvassing some areas of social housing in the Totnes constituency today. The rural poor.
I was genuinally astonsished at how well the Cons are doing there. Had two neighbouring houses who each said that Dr. Sarah Wollaston was "a waste of space". Sorry, PClipp.
Corbyn is voter-repellent. Unprompted diatribes again.
On the flip side, I did have my first incandescent Leftie at my being on his doorstep. Tories are "all fucking arseholes", apparently.0 -
2
-
He prefers primary schools. No difficult questions, and hospital patients with no visitors. It's the 8-80 age group that he avoids.OblitusSumMe said:Johnson's visits to schools and hospitals still going well I see.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/boris-johnson-sixth-form-students-trapped-room-nottinghamshire-general-election-a9196231.html
0 -
I'm not sure that this response adds anything to our knowledge let alone our expectancy.TudorRose said:
Has anyone told him that the plan to let 16 year-olds have the vote didn't work?EPG said:Matthew Goodwin noted that the Labour vote intention among the young is up about 20% since the time of this regional polling. For what it's worth.
Idk, but I get the sense that the population of bettors sometimes puts heart over head when it comes to tail outcomes for Labour. I remember two years ago getting odds of, like, 1/4 on Burgon in Leeds East, when it was already clear that Corbyn had rallied the base, if not quite up to the Gordon Brown levels of support that he eventually achieved.0 -
https://youtu.be/iS-0Az7dgRYOmnium said:
I do love Labour maths.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Omnium, the new promise for 100,000 police at a cost of a mere £37 will surely turn the tide in Labour's favour?
This was a recent highlight
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/11749665367772938240 -
Karie Murphy's 99% target seats strategy in action:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/11932132895112437770 -
Still working on the I let alone the A...Theuniondivvie said:
Speaking of Tory robots..nico67 said:
Amazing how you slag off Labour voters and yet the same apparent Tory robots are given a free pass !blueblue said:
In my pessimistic moments, I'm afraid you might be right - the moment Corbyn announces his tidal wave of free stuff, his, er, android followers will have their memories wiped, forget all about his epic shitness and surge back to Labour.Black_Rook said:
Except that Labour's support has a much higher floor than does that of the Lib Dems. There's an irreducible core of committed Socialists and Labour robots who won't vote for anybody else, regardless of Europe or any other issues - and who certainly haven't forgiven or forgotten the Coalition, either.Foxy said:
Those LD barcharts are going to get an outing across SE, SW, and East England, and rightly so. The squeeze will be on Lab there.Black_Rook said:These YouGov data are broadly encouraging for the Conservatives, but they're already out of date and I'd be very surprised were Labour's support to remain this depressed. I'm as sure as I can be that this GE is still going to be close.
The Lib Dems are doing much better than last time, but there's already some polling evidence of squeeze and they start from a very long way behind in most constituencies. Their tally from this election should be much closer to Paddy Ashdown in 1992 than Charles Kennedy in 2005.
Labour defections won't be enough to get the yellows over the line in any more than a handful of Tory-held seats.
It's happened before...
https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/1193191248733069312?s=20
They're still working on the AI aspect.0 -
When are we expecting the manifestos to land?0
-
Most of the extreme and even anti-democratic actions that used to be predicted by Corbyn's opponents on left and right have now been carried out by this Conservative government. Purging internal opponents, suspending parliament, spaffing untold billions of pounds. Write your own list. Boris is the Conservatives' Corbyn.blueblue said:
No, Labour is far worse - possibly the most appalling incarnation in its history. At least Foot had a formidable intellect and oratorical powers to go with his far left loopiness!DecrepitJohnL said:
Because the election is (almost) a forced choice and the other lot are at least as bad if not worse.blueblue said:
Damn you! But it's what I expect as well.Black_Rook said:
It's already started. Watch the new raft of polls for tomorrow's papers. The Labour average will be up again.blueblue said:
In my pessimistic moments, I'm afraid you might be right - the moment Corbyn announces his tidal wave of free stuff, his, er, android followers will have their memories wiped, forget all about his epic shitness and surge back to Labour.Black_Rook said:
Except that Labour's support has a much higher floor than does that of the Lib Dems. There's an irreducible core of committed Socialists and Labour robots who won't vote for anybody else, regardless of Europe or any other issues - and who certainly haven't forgiven or forgotten the Coalition, either.Foxy said:
Those LD barcharts are going to get an outing across SE, SW, and East England, and rightly so. The squeeze will be on Lab there.Black_Rook said:These YouGov data are broadly encouraging for the Conservatives, but they're already out of date and I'd be very surprised were Labour's support to remain this depressed. I'm as sure as I can be that this GE is still going to be close.
The Lib Dems are doing much better than last time, but there's already some polling evidence of squeeze and they start from a very long way behind in most constituencies. Their tally from this election should be much closer to Paddy Ashdown in 1992 than Charles Kennedy in 2005.
Labour defections won't be enough to get the yellows over the line in any more than a handful of Tory-held seats.
It's happened before...
Why why why can't Labour get the electoral kicking they so richly deserve, just this once? It's been a long time since 1983...
And on Friday 13th, one of them will be filmed walking into 10 Downing Street.0 -
Automatons? Homunculi?kinabalu said:@Black_Rook
Can you stop saying "robots" please.
It's becoming a little robotic.0 -
Campaigning in a seat famous for its (defunct) nappy factory is appropriate for a man who’s full of shit.rottenborough said:Karie Murphy's 99% target seats strategy in action:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/11932132895112437770 -
To be fair Johnson was in Bury St Edmunds the other day. If that goes red, England will have fallen...rottenborough said:Karie Murphy's 99% target seats strategy in action:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/11932132895112437770 -
Probably not, the supply and confidence discussions with the LDs and others will be tricky.dyedwoolie said:I don't think Labour are remotely ready for what's coming in 4 weeks 5 days time
0 -
Because they are trying to stop a meltdown in their heartlands?rottenborough said:Karie Murphy's 99% target seats strategy in action:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/11932132895112437771 -
Oh, she thought he'd said a 99 seat strategy......rottenborough said:Karie Murphy's 99% target seats strategy in action:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/11932132895112437771 -
If it comes down to that then the bit we should all really be looking forward to is when we find ourselves lumbered with a UK Government propped up by SNP votes negotiating Scottish independence with the SNP.kle4 said:
Probably not, the supply and confidence discussions with the LDs and others will be tricky.dyedwoolie said:I don't think Labour are remotely ready for what's coming in 4 weeks 5 days time
It'll make the Brexit shitstorm look like a minor squall.0 -
We don't hear much about Baxter's projections on Pb.com these days ...I wonder why that is?
FWIW, he currently has the Tories winning 373 seats, Labour on 182 and LibDems on 25, giving the Blue Team an overall majority of 96, or actually into three figures if Sinn Fein MPs again fail to take up their seats in the HoC.0 -
Dr. Woolaston on her way out?MarqueeMark said:Was canvassing some areas of social housing in the Totnes constituency today. The rural poor.
I was genuinally astonsished at how well the Cons are doing there. Had two neighbouring houses who each said that Dr. Sarah Wollaston was "a waste of space". Sorry, PClipp.
Corbyn is voter-repellent. Unprompted diatribes again.
On the flip side, I did have my first incandescent Leftie at my being on his doorstep. Tories are "all fucking arseholes", apparently.0 -
Evening all and looking at the YouGov regional results made me think of the changes in Scotland between 2010 and 2015. We saw both the SNP and Tories chipping away at Labour in council by-elections and then of course at that time Labour had a fair number of their 41 Scottish seats with 10,000+ majorities. The only ones they took back in 2017 were seats where they had had Islington sized majorities. Many of those with sub 10,000 majorities in 2010 in 2017 became battles between the SNP and SCons.
Assuming that in places like Liverpool, Manchester and Inner London the 20,000+ majority electorates are more or less remaining loyal to the Corbyn plan, could that mean that in places like Birmingham and the Midlands, the South and possibly even in Wales they are going to go from 1st to 3rd or even 4th in one election?
We have often talked about whether English Labour could face a Scottish Labour 2015 type meltdown. Could this be that election or will we see polls this evening showing Labour put clear red water between them and the Liberals in these polls and possibly narrowing the Tory lead? I was struck by the very normal folk SKY interviewed in Thurrock yesterday and only one said she was sticking with Labour. Indeed one wee lady started on the "my father always voted Labour, my mother always voted Labour and I've always voted Labour... but for the 1st time in my life and I would never have believed it possible, I am voting for Boris because I think he will get it done and we must get it [Brexit] done."0 -
Because having rallies with lots of enthusiastic supporters make for great social media clips.GIN1138 said:
Because they are trying to stop a meltdown in their heartlands?rottenborough said:Karie Murphy's 99% target seats strategy in action:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/11932132895112437770 -
Why is it so hard to count 53 votes correctly?Omnium said:
I do love Labour maths.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Omnium, the new promise for 100,000 police at a cost of a mere £37 will surely turn the tide in Labour's favour?
This was a recent highlight
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1174966536777293824
Good evening, everyone.0 -
Its up to each others' side to point out the robots on the other.nico67 said:
Amazing how you slag off Labour voters and yet the same apparent Tory robots are given a free pass !blueblue said:
In my pessimistic moments, I'm afraid you might be right - the moment Corbyn announces his tidal wave of free stuff, his, er, android followers will have their memories wiped, forget all about his epic shitness and surge back to Labour.Black_Rook said:
Except that Labour's support has a much higher floor than does that of the Lib Dems. There's an irreducible core of committed Socialists and Labour robots who won't vote for anybody else, regardless of Europe or any other issues - and who certainly haven't forgiven or forgotten the Coalition, either.Foxy said:
Those LD barcharts are going to get an outing across SE, SW, and East England, and rightly so. The squeeze will be on Lab there.Black_Rook said:These YouGov data are broadly encouraging for the Conservatives, but they're already out of date and I'd be very surprised were Labour's support to remain this depressed. I'm as sure as I can be that this GE is still going to be close.
The Lib Dems are doing much better than last time, but there's already some polling evidence of squeeze and they start from a very long way behind in most constituencies. Their tally from this election should be much closer to Paddy Ashdown in 1992 than Charles Kennedy in 2005.
Labour defections won't be enough to get the yellows over the line in any more than a handful of Tory-held seats.
It's happened before...0 -
Damn ... IF we had to lose, then that's the scenario I would want Labour to have to govern in!Black_Rook said:
If it comes down to that then the bit we should all really be looking forward to is when we find ourselves lumbered with a UK Government propped up by SNP votes negotiating Scottish independence with the SNP.kle4 said:
Probably not, the supply and confidence discussions with the LDs and others will be tricky.dyedwoolie said:I don't think Labour are remotely ready for what's coming in 4 weeks 5 days time
It'll make the Brexit shitstorm look like a minor squall.0 -
Quite. Is there a link to what the regional polling showed then, as I swear it was basically the same.nico67 said:The media hysteria over the YouGov regional polling completely ignores the same type of polling which was done in May 2017 .
I’d advise people to look at how awful Labour were doing then , indeed the Tories are doing worse now compared to the same time period before the June 2017 GE.0 -
Becuase it requires six members to get the right number of fingers?AnneJGP said:
Why is it so hard to count 53 votes correctly?Omnium said:
I do love Labour maths.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Omnium, the new promise for 100,000 police at a cost of a mere £37 will surely turn the tide in Labour's favour?
This was a recent highlight
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1174966536777293824
Good evening, everyone.0 -
Because images of adoring masses in heartlands worked last time in motivating everyone?rottenborough said:Karie Murphy's 99% target seats strategy in action:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/11932132895112437770 -
It will. He's a strong candidate.DecrepitJohnL said:
Party trumps personality. The last Conservative MP was a waste of space but this time it will be different.MarqueeMark said:Was canvassing some areas of social housing in the Totnes constituency today. The rural poor.
I was genuinally astonsished at how well the Cons are doing there. Had two neighbouring houses who each said that Dr. Sarah Wollaston was "a waste of space". Sorry, PClipp.
Corbyn is voter-repellent. Unprompted diatribes again.
On the flip side, I did have my first incandescent Leftie at my being on his doorstep. Tories are "all fucking arseholes", apparently.
Ironically, he is probably the greenest candidate, what with the Greens not standing in Totnes.0 -
All too often, when someone says "All you have to do is ....", they're describing the thing the person they're talking to finds impossible to do.Jason said:
Labour were gifted some monumental bonuses at the last election, namely Theresa May and the Dementia Tax. Corbyn also defied expectations, starting from a base of practically zero. It was a perfect storm for Labour. Now, the constant drip drip of the anti Semitism stuff has started to stick. And a lot of Labour voters - and plenty of others too - gave cuddly old grandpa Corbyn the benfit of the doubt then. Those very same people will now see him for what he is - a nasty old bastard.Morris_Dancer said:Hmm.
Maybe. The polling does look bad, but neither of the last two elections ended the way they started. I still suspect the incumbent will screw up a number of debates and the prime beneficiary may well be Corbyn.
But most importantly Brexit was not even on the horizon then. Corbyn's pathological refusal to state which side he supports will sink Labour in both Leave and Remain seats.
All Boris has to do is stay disciplined in the debates - tricky for him at times granted - and then let Corbyn dig Labour's Brexit sized grave all by himself.1 -
Much as its fun to bash, there may indeed be nothing wrong with the maths, if there is the possibility to not participate in the vote. In the UN voting system, those absent from the room at the time of the vote are not counted as abstentions.AnneJGP said:
Why is it so hard to count 53 votes correctly?Omnium said:
I do love Labour maths.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Omnium, the new promise for 100,000 police at a cost of a mere £37 will surely turn the tide in Labour's favour?
This was a recent highlight
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1174966536777293824
Good evening, everyone.0 -
Its up to each others' side to point out the robots on the other.
Howdy, kle4, I haven't spoken to you since the last election, right? Please tell me you've started watching 'The Expanse'?
0
