Maybe. The polling does look bad, but neither of the last two elections ended the way they started. I still suspect the incumbent will screw up a number of debates and the prime beneficiary may well be Corbyn.
Labour were gifted some monumental bonuses at the last election, namely Theresa May and the Dementia Tax. Corbyn also defied expectations, starting from a base of practically zero. It was a perfect storm for Labour. Now, the constant drip drip of the anti Semitism stuff has started to stick. And a lot of Labour voters - and plenty of others too - gave cuddly old grandpa Corbyn the benfit of the doubt then. Those very same people will now see him for what he is - a nasty old bastard.
But most importantly Brexit was not even on the horizon then. Corbyn's pathological refusal to state which side he supports will sink Labour in both Leave and Remain seats.
All Boris has to do is stay disciplined in the debates - tricky for him at times granted - and then let Corbyn dig Labour's Brexit sized grave all by himself.
All too often, when someone says "All you have to do is ....", they're describing the thing the person they're talking to finds impossible to do.
It apparently debunks the notion that boys are better at maths than girls by hooking up about 50 or so to some sort of scan to measure brain activity during maths questions. The same parts of the brains lit up.
Now, it was a short story so maybe some critical detail was missed [and if you have that, please do share as I'd like to know if I missed something], but that just means the same part of the brain is active. I'd hazard a guess the same would be seen if the scans were done for language skills (at which girls are better than boys).
The same part of the brain being active just means the anatomy's the same. I have biceps the same place as a bodybuilder. It doesn't mean my bicep is just as strong.
Was canvassing some areas of social housing in the Totnes constituency today. The rural poor.
I was genuinally astonsished at how well the Cons are doing there. Had two neighbouring houses who each said that Dr. Sarah Wollaston was "a waste of space". Sorry, PClipp.
Corbyn is voter-repellent. Unprompted diatribes again.
On the flip side, I did have my first incandescent Leftie at my being on his doorstep. Tories are "all fucking arseholes", apparently.
Dr. Woolaston on her way out?
Ironically almost certainly not, if the not inconsiderable Labour vote in the seat is being repelled as M&M says.
Anecdata from an afternoon canvassing in 3-way marginal Portsmouth South (Southsea ward, LinDem-held). High winds and steady rain made it tiresome, but there were 8 Labour canvassers from the bustling Labour office (yesterday apparently 16), tackling the hard-to-enter mansion blocks along the front - once someone let you in, you had a dry 20 minutes, wahey! Those who expressed an opinion were all Labour or Tory (about 2-1) but lots of don't knows, some obviously genuine, some I assume privately against. I saw only one poster, a LibDem.
Nobody mentioned Brexit explicitly and insofar as people raised anything it was the economy and general "confusion at all the goings on". We experimentally raised Brexit ourselves ("we will give people another chance to decide") a few times without any particular reaction. The big plus point for Labour was the MP, Stephen Morgan - everyone seemed to know him and respect him for hard work, and some planned to vote for him simply in the perceived absence of compelling reasons to vote in any direction otherwise. Some voters disliked Johnson, Corbyn and Swinson with apparently equal passion.
All the evidence (Survation poll, local council election in May) suggests a very close race. The LibDems were leafleting widely, apparently more than canvassing, while the Tories were pursuing a core vote strategy, with very intensive canvassing of their core wards and not much elsewhere. I saw the small LibDem Southsea office, which looked considerably quieter than the Labour one.
Hard to call on a few hours' experience, but if I had to guess, I'd think first term incumbency and activist enthusiasm will see Morgan home.
The media hysteria over the YouGov regional polling completely ignores the same type of polling which was done in May 2017 .
I’d advise people to look at how awful Labour were doing then , indeed the Tories are doing worse now compared to the same time period before the June 2017 GE.
Quite. Is there a link to what the regional polling showed then, as I swear it was basically the same.
If you type wiki uk election polls 2017 into your search engine .
At the bottom of the page is the regional polling . YouGov did the same type of polling about 6 weeks out from the 2017 GE. In most cases the Tories are doing worse than Labour but YouGov instead recently decided to just compare it with the 2017 GE result to make it look worse for Labour .
Evening all and looking at the YouGov regional results made me think of the changes in Scotland between 2010 and 2015. We saw both the SNP and Tories chipping away at Labour in council by-elections and then of course at that time Labour had a fair number of their 41 Scottish seats with 10,000+ majorities. The only ones they took back in 2017 were seats where they had had Islington sized majorities. Many of those with sub 10,000 majorities in 2010 in 2017 became battles between the SNP and SCons.
Assuming that in places like Liverpool, Manchester and Inner London the 20,000+ majority electorates are more or less remaining loyal to the Corbyn plan, could that mean that in places like Birmingham and the Midlands, the South and possibly even in Wales they are going to go from 1st to 3rd or even 4th in one election?
We have often talked about whether English Labour could face a Scottish Labour 2015 type meltdown. Could this be that election or will we see polls this evening showing Labour put clear red water between them and the Liberals in these polls and possibly narrowing the Tory lead? I was struck by the very normal folk SKY interviewed in Thurrock yesterday and only one said she was sticking with Labour. Indeed one wee lady started on the "my father always voted Labour, my mother always voted Labour and I've always voted Labour... but for the 1st time in my life and I would never have believed it possible, I am voting for Boris because I think he will get it done and we must get it [Brexit] done."
That's an interesting snippet "I am voting for Boris". I think that is the mind leap many traditional Labour voters are making in voting for the Conservatives "I'm voting for Boris, not the Tories".
My personal view is that Labour is indeed heading for a meltdown. I wouldn't even say those 30,000-40,000 majority seats are safe from the LDs if they are seats that are wealthy professional middle class / students. The only seats I can see Labour rely upon in this election are those with a high BAME proportion, and specifically a high SE Asian Muslim vote. Interestingly, there seems to be a pick up in candidates being picked with this background to replace retiring MPs or fight seats.
Anecdata from an afternoon canvassing in 3-way marginal Portsmouth South (Southsea ward, LinDem-held). High winds and steady rain made it tiresome, but there were 8 Labour canvassers from the bustling Labour office (yesterday apparently 16), tackling the hard-to-enter mansion blocks along the front - once someone let you in, you had a dry 20 minutes, wahey! Those who expressed an opinion were all Labour or Tory (about 2-1) but lots of don't knows, some obviously genuine, some I assume privately against. I saw only one poster, a LibDem.
Nobody mentioned Brexit explicitly and insofar as people raised anything it was the economy and general "confusion at all the goings on". We experimentally raised Brexit ourselves ("we will give people another chance to decide") a few times without any particular reaction. The big plus point for Labour was the MP, Stephen Morgan - everyone seemed to know him and respect him for hard work, and some planned to vote for him simply in the perceived absence of compelling reasons to vote in any direction otherwise. Some voters disliked Johnson, Corbyn and Swinson with apparently equal passion.
All the evidence (Survation poll, local council election in May) suggests a very close race. The LibDems were leafleting widely, apparently more than canvassing, while the Tories were pursuing a core vote strategy, with very intensive canvassing of their core wards and not much elsewhere. I saw the small LibDem Southsea office, which looked considerably quieter than the Labour one.
Hard to call on a few hours' experience, but if I had to guess, I'd think first term incumbency and activist enthusiasm will see Morgan home.
Slightly weird nobody mentioned Brexit. Must be some sort of 2019 record.
Was canvassing some areas of social housing in the Totnes constituency today. The rural poor.
I was genuinally astonsished at how well the Cons are doing there. Had two neighbouring houses who each said that Dr. Sarah Wollaston was "a waste of space". Sorry, PClipp.
Corbyn is voter-repellent. Unprompted diatribes again.
On the flip side, I did have my first incandescent Leftie at my being on his doorstep. Tories are "all fucking arseholes", apparently.
Dr. Woolaston on her way out?
Ironically almost certainly not, if the not inconsiderable Labour vote in the seat is being repelled as M&M says.
Was canvassing some areas of social housing in the Totnes constituency today. The rural poor.
I was genuinally astonsished at how well the Cons are doing there. Had two neighbouring houses who each said that Dr. Sarah Wollaston was "a waste of space". Sorry, PClipp.
Corbyn is voter-repellent. Unprompted diatribes again.
On the flip side, I did have my first incandescent Leftie at my being on his doorstep. Tories are "all fucking arseholes", apparently.
MM - good for the Blue team to hear your encouraging news from Totnes. Mind you it really would be seriously bad news were that seat in danger of being lost. What is your overall impression of the SW in terms of how support is holding up for the Tories and are they likely to lose more than a very few seats.?
Was canvassing some areas of social housing in the Totnes constituency today. The rural poor.
I was genuinally astonsished at how well the Cons are doing there. Had two neighbouring houses who each said that Dr. Sarah Wollaston was "a waste of space". Sorry, PClipp.
Corbyn is voter-repellent. Unprompted diatribes again.
On the flip side, I did have my first incandescent Leftie at my being on his doorstep. Tories are "all fucking arseholes", apparently.
That’s refreshing. Am often taken how often you give us negative feedback when you return from your canvassing for the Conservative Party
It apparently debunks the notion that boys are better at maths than girls by hooking up about 50 or so to some sort of scan to measure brain activity during maths questions. The same parts of the brains lit up.
Now, it was a short story so maybe some critical detail was missed [and if you have that, please do share as I'd like to know if I missed something], but that just means the same part of the brain is active. I'd hazard a guess the same would be seen if the scans were done for language skills (at which girls are better than boys).
The same part of the brain being active just means the anatomy's the same. I have biceps the same place as a bodybuilder. It doesn't mean my bicep is just as strong.
Boys are generally better at spacial awareness. That is not maths, however, large parts of maths can involve questions where improved spacial awareness is an asset. It may help with classic geometry, but it will do little good for thing such as number theory or some of the more esoteric areas of calculus.
Ironically, until about 100 years ago, mathematics was considered to be beneath the dignity of many men in science and their "computers" were rooms full of women. Look at Pickering's "Havard Computer" and also the work of Henrietta Swan Leavitt and Annie Jump Cannon
Anecdata from an afternoon canvassing in 3-way marginal Portsmouth South (Southsea ward, LinDem-held). High winds and steady rain made it tiresome, but there were 8 Labour canvassers from the bustling Labour office (yesterday apparently 16), tackling the hard-to-enter mansion blocks along the front - once someone let you in, you had a dry 20 minutes, wahey! Those who expressed an opinion were all Labour or Tory (about 2-1) but lots of don't knows, some obviously genuine, some I assume privately against. I saw only one poster, a LibDem.
Nobody mentioned Brexit explicitly and insofar as people raised anything it was the economy and general "confusion at all the goings on". We experimentally raised Brexit ourselves ("we will give people another chance to decide") a few times without any particular reaction. The big plus point for Labour was the MP, Stephen Morgan - everyone seemed to know him and respect him for hard work, and some planned to vote for him simply in the perceived absence of compelling reasons to vote in any direction otherwise. Some voters disliked Johnson, Corbyn and Swinson with apparently equal passion.
All the evidence (Survation poll, local council election in May) suggests a very close race. The LibDems were leafleting widely, apparently more than canvassing, while the Tories were pursuing a core vote strategy, with very intensive canvassing of their core wards and not much elsewhere. I saw the small LibDem Southsea office, which looked considerably quieter than the Labour one.
Hard to call on a few hours' experience, but if I had to guess, I'd think first term incumbency and activist enthusiasm will see Morgan home.
I was in a factory in Havant last week that I visit from time to time and where I've a family connection with some shop floor workers. They were wary of Corbyn when he came in but have subsequently warmed to him. But you often get things that start off as appealing to middle class types but that the workers come to a bit later. That's what happened with taramasalata.
Anecdata from an afternoon canvassing in 3-way marginal Portsmouth South (Southsea ward, LinDem-held). High winds and steady rain made it tiresome, but there were 8 Labour canvassers from the bustling Labour office (yesterday apparently 16), tackling the hard-to-enter mansion blocks along the front - once someone let you in, you had a dry 20 minutes, wahey! Those who expressed an opinion were all Labour or Tory (about 2-1) but lots of don't knows, some obviously genuine, some I assume privately against. I saw only one poster, a LibDem.
Nobody mentioned Brexit explicitly and insofar as people raised anything it was the economy and general "confusion at all the goings on". We experimentally raised Brexit ourselves ("we will give people another chance to decide") a few times without any particular reaction. The big plus point for Labour was the MP, Stephen Morgan - everyone seemed to know him and respect him for hard work, and some planned to vote for him simply in the perceived absence of compelling reasons to vote in any direction otherwise. Some voters disliked Johnson, Corbyn and Swinson with apparently equal passion.
All the evidence (Survation poll, local council election in May) suggests a very close race. The LibDems were leafleting widely, apparently more than canvassing, while the Tories were pursuing a core vote strategy, with very intensive canvassing of their core wards and not much elsewhere. I saw the small LibDem Southsea office, which looked considerably quieter than the Labour one.
Hard to call on a few hours' experience, but if I had to guess, I'd think first term incumbency and activist enthusiasm will see Morgan home.
Sounds like labour have reached Tory 97 levels of pity canvass replies!
Much as its fun to bash, there may indeed be nothing wrong with the maths, if there is the possibility to not participate in the vote. In the UN voting system, those absent from the room at the time of the vote are not counted as abstentions.
Interesting. I didn't realise the term recount covered an extended period for the voting to happen.
Mrs C, I do remember hearing of that sort of thing.
However, that doesn't address the slightly weird way the story was written. It could've been misunderstood or incomplete, but the idea that the same brain areas being activated indicate equality of capability seems rather odd, no?
Labour seem to be further down in every region than they are in the national polling. Usually I would think it is London making up for the difference, but they seem to be down there too. Where is the mismatch between regional and national polls coming from?
The latest YouGov national poll had Labour on 22% which is in line with their regional polling. The discrepancy is between YouGov and other pollsters like Survation who have Labour doing better.
It apparently debunks the notion that boys are better at maths than girls by hooking up about 50 or so to some sort of scan to measure brain activity during maths questions. The same parts of the brains lit up.
Now, it was a short story so maybe some critical detail was missed [and if you have that, please do share as I'd like to know if I missed something], but that just means the same part of the brain is active. I'd hazard a guess the same would be seen if the scans were done for language skills (at which girls are better than boys).
The same part of the brain being active just means the anatomy's the same. I have biceps the same place as a bodybuilder. It doesn't mean my bicep is just as strong.
I think it is meant to debunk the idea that girls are inherently incapable of being as good as boys because the anatomy is not the same (in your analogy, the theory that md has no biceps at all and therefore nothing to work on to upgrade himself to bodybuilder standard).
The media hysteria over the YouGov regional polling completely ignores the same type of polling which was done in May 2017 .
I’d advise people to look at how awful Labour were doing then , indeed the Tories are doing worse now compared to the same time period before the June 2017 GE.
Quite. Is there a link to what the regional polling showed then, as I swear it was basically the same.
If you type wiki uk election polls 2017 into your search engine .
At the bottom of the page is the regional polling . YouGov did the same type of polling about 6 weeks out from the 2017 GE. In most cases the Tories are doing worse than Labour but YouGov instead recently decided to just compare it with the 2017 GE result to make it look worse for Labour .
It's consistent with what they did the time before, comparing it to the last GE.
Matthew Goodwin noted that the Labour vote intention among the young is up about 20% since the time of this regional polling. For what it's worth.
That was only the 18-24 age group, and they're a pretty small group who usually have lower rates of turnout than other groups. Looking at the 25-34 age group would be more enlightening IMO.
You begin to seriously wonder if even Ian Murray can hang on.
The lazy condescending bird-brain Pidcock both being ousted would almost be worth the thought of Johnson in Downing Street with a Blair-style majority.
I don't think Labour are remotely ready for what's coming in 4 weeks 5 days time
Probably not, the supply and confidence discussions with the LDs and others will be tricky.
If it comes down to that then the bit we should all really be looking forward to is when we find ourselves lumbered with a UK Government propped up by SNP votes negotiating Scottish independence with the SNP.
It'll make the Brexit shitstorm look like a minor squall.
Mrs C, I do remember hearing of that sort of thing.
However, that doesn't address the slightly weird way the story was written. It could've been misunderstood or incomplete, but the idea that the same brain areas being activated indicate equality of capability seems rather odd, no?
I does not seem odd to me. We all perceive images using cells at the back of the brain. Motor control takes place on a strip that runs from ear to ear, etc. Male or female makes no odds.
The areas of the brain where sex-based differences show up are very localised. Generally speaking (pedants please note the emphasis) women have more interconnections between the two halves of the brain and women have rather more grey matter (men have more white matter). The only areas I can recall that have significant sex-based differences are speech processing (happens in a localised area of the left male brain, more diffusely spread out in the female brain) and the bed nucleus of the stria terminalis which is smaller in women than men and seems to be tied up sexual or gender identity (but the jury is still out on that)
You begin to seriously wonder if even Ian Murray can hang on.
He ought to. He's the only SLAB MP with a substantial majority and (presumably) a big enough supply of Unionist sympathy shag voters to defend him against some lefty swing back to the Nats.
Was canvassing some areas of social housing in the Totnes constituency today. The rural poor.
I was genuinally astonsished at how well the Cons are doing there. Had two neighbouring houses who each said that Dr. Sarah Wollaston was "a waste of space". Sorry, PClipp.
Corbyn is voter-repellent. Unprompted diatribes again.
On the flip side, I did have my first incandescent Leftie at my being on his doorstep. Tories are "all fucking arseholes", apparently.
MM - good for the Blue team to hear your encouraging news from Totnes. Mind you it really would be seriously bad news were that seat in danger of being lost. What is your overall impression of the SW in terms of how support is holding up for the Tories and are they likely to lose more than a very few seats.?
Peter, I am focussed on Totnes and not picking up much of the wider picture yet. Soon as I do, I will share it here, as I have done before. Not picking up love for the LibDem Revoke policy though. Even Remainers think it wrong.
Totnes is unusual with the sitting MP having switched from Con to LibDem. Some still like and respect Dr. Sarah. Many now do not. There is a strong feeling I get across the political divide that MPs who defect should put themselves forward for a by-election. The are good numbers of LibDems who don't like that a former Tory should be their candidate.
I would take a sizeable punt that if the recall laws were expanded to include such defectors, it would be popular. And used.
You begin to seriously wonder if even Ian Murray can hang on.
He ought to. He's the only SLAB MP with a substantial majority and (presumably) a big enough supply of Unionist sympathy shag voters to defend him against some lefty swing back to the Nats.
Apologies for earlier comment now amended, was confusing him with Lavery.
Matthew Goodwin noted that the Labour vote intention among the young is up about 20% since the time of this regional polling. For what it's worth.
That was only the 18-24 age group, and they're a pretty small group who usually have lower rates of turnout than other groups. Looking at the 25-34 age group would be more enlightening IMO.
It would. I think the focus on 18-24 is bizarre because it is such a small group of actual voters, and rarely signals long-term changes. It should be possible, if some kind person would dig them out, to get the more meaningful 25-34 figures.
Mrs C, my understanding was that the corpus callosum (link between hemispheres) was almost always relatively larger in female than male brains.
The myelin sheaths being thicker on male axons (from fuzzy university memories) is kind of odd given less myelin is apparently indicative of psychopathology, but almost all psychopaths are male.
That seems pretty tame compared to what Ian Byrne said. But anyway, there's a precedent been set and soon enough nobody in the right mind will ever want to enter politics, and those that do will be bits of rubbish like we see littered all over the HoC at the moment.
Anecdata from an afternoon canvassing in 3-way marginal Portsmouth South (Southsea ward, LinDem-held). High winds and steady rain made it tiresome, but there were 8 Labour canvassers from the bustling Labour office (yesterday apparently 16), tackling the hard-to-enter mansion blocks along the front - once someone let you in, you had a dry 20 minutes, wahey! Those who expressed an opinion were all Labour or Tory (about 2-1) but lots of don't knows, some obviously genuine, some I assume privately against. I saw only one poster, a LibDem.
Nobody mentioned Brexit explicitly and insofar as people raised anything it was the economy and general "confusion at all the goings on". We experimentally raised Brexit ourselves ("we will give people another chance to decide") a few times without any particular reaction. The big plus point for Labour was the MP, Stephen Morgan - everyone seemed to know him and respect him for hard work, and some planned to vote for him simply in the perceived absence of compelling reasons to vote in any direction otherwise. Some voters disliked Johnson, Corbyn and Swinson with apparently equal passion.
All the evidence (Survation poll, local council election in May) suggests a very close race. The LibDems were leafleting widely, apparently more than canvassing, while the Tories were pursuing a core vote strategy, with very intensive canvassing of their core wards and not much elsewhere. I saw the small LibDem Southsea office, which looked considerably quieter than the Labour one.
Hard to call on a few hours' experience, but if I had to guess, I'd think first term incumbency and activist enthusiasm will see Morgan home.
I was in a factory in Havant last week that I visit from time to time and where I've a family connection with some shop floor workers. They were wary of Corbyn when he came in but have subsequently warmed to him. But you often get things that start off as appealing to middle class types but that the workers come to a bit later. That's what happened with taramasalata.
It also happened with those mobile telephones if I remember correctly.
Wish all these Labour and Conservative candidates who have had to resign had waited till after they were duly nominated. Then it would have opened up a lot of these seats to third party candidates of whatever ilk, thus adding to the fun.
I don't think Labour are remotely ready for what's coming in 4 weeks 5 days time
Probably not, the supply and confidence discussions with the LDs and others will be tricky.
If it comes down to that then the bit we should all really be looking forward to is when we find ourselves lumbered with a UK Government propped up by SNP votes negotiating Scottish independence with the SNP.
It'll make the Brexit shitstorm look like a minor squall.
The sooner that happy day comes the better
In all seriousness the next GE is unlikely to lead directly to indyref 2. A Tory majority means no, at least for now. And, absent that, no stable governing majority is likely to be formed by Labour under Corbyn, given that they're liable to be too far short of the winning post to get past it with SNP votes alone.
If the Tories fall short there'll probably be another election in the New Year, once either Brexit has been halted or the EU has allowed us to kick the can again. After that, we'll see how the numbers stack up.
Matthew Goodwin noted that the Labour vote intention among the young is up about 20% since the time of this regional polling. For what it's worth.
That was only the 18-24 age group, and they're a pretty small group who usually have lower rates of turnout than other groups. Looking at the 25-34 age group would be more enlightening IMO.
Follow-up reply. Great suggestion. Goodwin's numbers were 35, 38, 44, 54. The 25-44 age group is only 30, 29, 33, 33. I think 25-44 should embody much of any true change in the 18-24 group. I would never wish to accuse Goodwin of spinning a story (even though I disagree with his politics and consider them ethnically chauvinistic). However, it seems here specifically, he has ignored strong evidence against his claim.
LDs now ahead of Corbyn Labour in Scotland as well as the East of England, South East England and South West England. Only in London, the North, the Midlands and Wales are Labour even still the Tories main opponents and only in the North East, London and Wales are Labour actually ahead.
Have had a busy day canvassing in Chingford for IDS and delivering in Harlow for Robert Halfon. In Chingford the Tory vote was solid, certainly on the Leave side, there were a few Tory Remainers wavering but they were only considering the LDs, they all could not stand Corbyn
In this poll it looks like the changes are larger where the Tories are going to pick up seats and smaller where they are defending them - optimally distributed for a massive Conservative victory.
Needs a big change to stop Johnson.
Is there any chance it could be much bigger in the marginals and a huge swing to Labour in Uxbridge?
A comfortable Tory majority and Boris loses his seat.
I honestly could live with that.
If that happened, and I think it's an unlikely but amusing possibility, who do you think would be the next Conservative leader? Priti Patel?
The more I see of her the more I think she is a libertarian not the authoritarian she is stereotyped as and that she could be a good PM.
Wish all these Labour and Conservative candidates who have had to resign had waited till after they were duly nominated. Then it would have opened up a lot of these seats to third party candidates of whatever ilk, thus adding to the fun.
LDs now ahead of Corbyn Labour in Scotland as well as the East of England, South East England and South West England. Only in London, the North, the Midlands and Wales are Labour even still the Tories main opponents and only in the North East, London and Wales are Labour actually ahead.
Have had a busy day canvassing in Chingford for IDS and delivering in Harlow for Robert Halfon. In Chingford the Tory vote was solid, certainly on the Leave side, there were a few Tory Remainers wavering but they were only considering the LDs, they all could not stand Corbyn
, given Labour are at almost zero in Scotland that is no surprise, UKIP are likely to be ahead of them.
Have also had some friends and colleagues selected for seats in the last few days, Gagan Mohindra has been selected to succeed David Gauke in Hertfordshire SW and is someone I have known for a while as an Epping Forest and Essex cllr and hardworking campaigner. Shaun Bailey is an Aberstwyrth contempory of mine and has been selected as Tory candidate for West Bromwich West, Holly Whitbread is another Epping Forest cllr and activist who has got Hull North and fellow Epping Forest cllr Gavin Chambers will fight Islywyn.
An old Warwick contemporary of mine Simon Eardley made the final 3 for Eddisbury but Edward Timpson got it in the end
I don't think Labour are remotely ready for what's coming in 4 weeks 5 days time
Probably not, the supply and confidence discussions with the LDs and others will be tricky.
If it comes down to that then the bit we should all really be looking forward to is when we find ourselves lumbered with a UK Government propped up by SNP votes negotiating Scottish independence with the SNP.
It'll make the Brexit shitstorm look like a minor squall.
The sooner that happy day comes the better
In all seriousness the next GE is unlikely to lead directly to indyref 2. A Tory majority means no, at least for now. And, absent that, no stable governing majority is likely to be formed by Labour under Corbyn, given that they're liable to be too far short of the winning post to get past it with SNP votes alone.
If the Tories fall short there'll probably be another election in the New Year, once either Brexit has been halted or the EU has allowed us to kick the can again. After that, we'll see how the numbers stack up.
Hmmm, we shall see , any ban by stupid Westminster parties will cause big trouble , people will not accept arseholes in Westminster dictating to Scotland.
Much as its fun to bash, there may indeed be nothing wrong with the maths, if there is the possibility to not participate in the vote. In the UN voting system, those absent from the room at the time of the vote are not counted as abstentions.
Interesting. I didn't realise the term recount covered an extended period for the voting to happen.
Sorry, that may be my mistake. I had thought they had revoted, but if it was just a recount, you are right.
* I re-read the tweet, and it is ambiguous. It talks of an initial vote (implying there was a subsequent one) but then a recount (implying a subsequent count of the same vote).
MarquessMark: so is Evens a good price for a Tory win in Totnes?
Yes, I would say so.
As I have said before, Totnes town will be strong for Dr. Sarah. - especially with no Green candidate. But there are significantly more votes in Brixham/the edge of Paignton that isn't in Torbay constituency. There has been some Labour strength there, especially in 2017. But it is Brexity. An easier target for the Blues than the Yellows, when the Labour vote starts collapsing.
I'm finding the Tory vote in the more rural areas is still strong. Not saying they aren't there, but the only Brexit Party possible voters I've found were two today. And they were easily talked round to the Blues.
Everywhere, dislike of Corbyn is visceral. Maybe it's just an anti-London thing...?
On thread- OGH is right- this election in only heading in one direction- and a comfortable Tory majority....
Which is exactly what they said at exactly this time two years ago.
In fact, Labour's position viz a viz the tories is better this time around.
The St Jeremy fairy hunters are hoping to regain the miracle....rinse and repeat....
My very limited exposure on the Norwich doorstep gives me the same feeling as 2010...but multiplied by 10....a slick Tory machine with it's simple message is going to shellax a very poor Labour Party...
The Labour Party will not get anywhere close to 200 seats....
I don't think Labour are remotely ready for what's coming in 4 weeks 5 days time
Probably not, the supply and confidence discussions with the LDs and others will be tricky.
If it comes down to that then the bit we should all really be looking forward to is when we find ourselves lumbered with a UK Government propped up by SNP votes negotiating Scottish independence with the SNP.
It'll make the Brexit shitstorm look like a minor squall.
The sooner that happy day comes the better
In all seriousness the next GE is unlikely to lead directly to indyref 2. A Tory majority means no, at least for now. And, absent that, no stable governing majority is likely to be formed by Labour under Corbyn, given that they're liable to be too far short of the winning post to get past it with SNP votes alone.
If the Tories fall short there'll probably be another election in the New Year, once either Brexit has been halted or the EU has allowed us to kick the can again. After that, we'll see how the numbers stack up.
Hmmm, we shall see , any ban by stupid Westminster parties will cause big trouble , people will not accept arseholes in Westminster dictating to Scotland.
In the event that the Tories win, much depends on (a) the size of the majority and (b) the outcome of the 2021 Scottish Parliament election.
The Scottish Unionists have a huge vested interest in preventing a divorce. A great many English Conservatives, on the other hand, may see a silver lining to it.
But we're getting ahead of ourselves. First we must get this election out of the way. I look forward to the SNP getting rid of the SLAB contingent. All Labour losses are to be celebrated.
On Topic: My worry from these figures is that there seems to have been a major Labour -> Brexit Party swing which if the Brexit Party doesn't stand could return to the Labour Party not go to the Tories. See the North West as an example, there are many in the NW who wouldn't be seen dead voting for the Tories but are now saying BXP.
This happened in 2017. The Labour Party in 2017 didn't just squeeze the Lib Dems, they squeezed UKIP too. UKIP stood down and their voters didn't go to the Tories they went to Labour. The Tories polled around what they were polling before the election was called but UKIP polled 5% fewer than they were polling, I see no evidence that 5% went to anyone other than Labour.
One wouldn't have thought so -he's hardly plucked from obscurity, this would have been his 4th campaign in the area, so he's presumably been on his best behaviour since before 2010.
When will these people learn that what goes down well in the Dog & Duck saloon bar isn't necessarily going to turn voters on?
It's all very well being authentic, but political effectiveness first requires getting elected. And visibly demonstrating you're a pillock - even if you're right - is a great way of ensuring you never do get elected.
On thread- OGH is right- this election in only heading in one direction- and a comfortable Tory majority....
Which is exactly what they said at exactly this time two years ago.
In fact, Labour's position viz a viz the tories is better this time around.
I think it's still up in the air, and if the initial movement from Labour is not sustained then the Tories will be sitting pretty. But while the Tories themselves are not treating victory as inevitable, some opponents are giving up a bit quickly.
Anecdata from an afternoon canvassing in 3-way marginal Portsmouth South (Southsea ward, LinDem-held). High winds and steady rain made it tiresome, but there were 8 Labour canvassers from the bustling Labour office (yesterday apparently 16), tackling the hard-to-enter mansion blocks along the front - once someone let you in, you had a dry 20 minutes, wahey! Those who expressed an opinion were all Labour or Tory (about 2-1) but lots of don't knows, some obviously genuine, some I assume privately against. I saw only one poster, a LibDem.
Nobody mentioned Brexit explicitly and insofar as people raised anything it was the economy and general "confusion at all the goings on". We experimentally raised Brexit ourselves ("we will give people another chance to decide") a few times without any particular reaction. The big plus point for Labour was the MP, Stephen Morgan - everyone seemed to know him and respect him for hard work, and some planned to vote for him simply in the perceived absence of compelling reasons to vote in any direction otherwise. Some voters disliked Johnson, Corbyn and Swinson with apparently equal passion.
All the evidence (Survation poll, local council election in May) suggests a very close race. The LibDems were leafleting widely, apparently more than canvassing, while the Tories were pursuing a core vote strategy, with very intensive canvassing of their core wards and not much elsewhere. I saw the small LibDem Southsea office, which looked considerably quieter than the Labour one.
Hard to call on a few hours' experience, but if I had to guess, I'd think first term incumbency and activist enthusiasm will see Morgan home.
To be fair, is there any point in mentioning Brexit to a Labour Party canvasser? It's not like Labour has a Brexit policy.
On thread- OGH is right- this election in only heading in one direction- and a comfortable Tory majority....
Which is exactly what they said at exactly this time two years ago.
In fact, Labour's position viz a viz the tories is better this time around.
The St Jeremy fairy hunters are hoping to regain the miracle....rinse and repeat....
My very limited exposure on the Norwich doorstep gives me the same feeling as 2010...but multiplied by 10....a slick Tory machine with it's simple message is going to shellax a very poor Labour Party...
The Labour Party will not get anywhere close to 200 seats....
Yeah yeah, we had all of this sort of comment too. Only far worse. I think there are still jitters amongst tories. Maybe they know their support is soft.
In some ways my ideal result is a 1992. A really narrow Johnson outright win. Just enough to see him govern over total chaos for up to 5 yrs followed by a thumping Labour landslide under a moderate Labour leader.
On thread- OGH is right- this election in only heading in one direction- and a comfortable Tory majority....
Which is exactly what they said at exactly this time two years ago.
In fact, Labour's position viz a viz the tories is better this time around.
This time two years ago the Tories had a cardboard cutout in charge. This time they have a showman.
Two years ago, we did not appreciate how institutionally racist the Labour Party would turn out to be
I agree with Mike. The Tories will win this, probably with a smallish majority, but a majority nonetheless. The LibDems will come second too often and reduce the Labour vote so Boris and the Tories will benefit from that.
It’s remarkable just how stupid many of these candidates are .
If you ever plan to enter politics then think before you post on social media . You’d think they would have worked this out by now.
Although people should think before they post regardless of whether they plan to enter politics, it's probably a bit much to expect people to screen themselves however many years in advance on the off chance they do decide to do so. I think it's more the parties should be much much more focused on finding out this stuff at early stages, and deciding if its a battle they are prepared to have and for what reason - long time ago, views have changed, very apologetic, whatever - so they don't go about in a panic when opponents find them.
I see on the BBC website there is talk about the UK enduring another credi rating downgrade due to spending pledges / commitments advocated by Torie/ Labour. I still find it odd that the Tories have chucked fiscal disciplie as they have done after so many years...
Is anybody keeping a tally of how many Parliamentary candidates have had to quit, and why? The numbers must be getting quite substantial.
Both of these quotes seem both accurate and unexceptional.
Banging on about irrelevant feminist issues is precisely what Harman does much of the time - and misleading about some things that are significant issues. That is partly why the Fawcett society found a couple of years ago that only 4% of men and 9% of women call themselves feminist; Harman and friends have made the word toxic.
There is a history as long as your arm of faked up food poverty stats - especially by journos and politicos translating "x" parcels supplies by Trussell into "x" people.
The other stuff eg commenting on Mary Creagh's appearance on TV, and mentioning "Londonistan" looks more damaging. I would say it is Tory High Command killing a story the media would go for.
If it was just Harman and Food Poverty, it might be a useful controversy.
Have also had some friends and colleagues selected for seats in the last few days, Gagan Mohindra has been selected to succeed David Gauke in Hertfordshire SW and is someone I have known for a while as an Epping Forest and Essex cllr and hardworking campaigner. Shaun Bailey is an Aberstwyrth contempory of mine and has been selected as Tory candidate for West Bromwich West, Holly Whitbread is another Epping Forest cllr and activist who has got Hull North and fellow Epping Forest cllr Gavin Chambers will fight Islywyn.
An old Warwick contemporary of mine Simon Eardley made the final 3 for Eddisbury but Edward Timpson got it in the end
Hold on. Shaun Bailey as in the Mayoral candidate who will presumably be replaced in that capacity if elected to parliament? That might be important for betting purposes later on.
Anecdata from an afternoon canvassing in 3-way marginal Portsmouth South (Southsea ward, LinDem-held). High winds and steady rain made it tiresome, but there were 8 Labour canvassers from the bustling Labour office (yesterday apparently 16), tackling the hard-to-enter mansion blocks along the front - once someone let you in, you had a dry 20 minutes, wahey! Those who expressed an opinion were all Labour or Tory (about 2-1) but lots of don't knows, some obviously genuine, some I assume privately against. I saw only one poster, a LibDem.
Nobody mentioned Brexit explicitly and insofar as people raised anything it was the economy and general "confusion at all the goings on". We experimentally raised Brexit ourselves ("we will give people another chance to decide") a few times without any particular reaction. The big plus point for Labour was the MP, Stephen Morgan - everyone seemed to know him and respect him for hard work, and some planned to vote for him simply in the perceived absence of compelling reasons to vote in any direction otherwise. Some voters disliked Johnson, Corbyn and Swinson with apparently equal passion.
All the evidence (Survation poll, local council election in May) suggests a very close race. The LibDems were leafleting widely, apparently more than canvassing, while the Tories were pursuing a core vote strategy, with very intensive canvassing of their core wards and not much elsewhere. I saw the small LibDem Southsea office, which looked considerably quieter than the Labour one.
Hard to call on a few hours' experience, but if I had to guess, I'd think first term incumbency and activist enthusiasm will see Morgan home.
To be fair, is there any point in mentioning Brexit to a Labour Party canvasser? It's not like Labour has a Brexit policy.
I often like your comments Robert but that's a little carefree?
It took them two years but Labour do in fact have a sensible Brexit policy, which the tabloids refuse to listen to.
On thread- OGH is right- this election in only heading in one direction- and a comfortable Tory majority....
Which is exactly what they said at exactly this time two years ago.
In fact, Labour's position viz a viz the tories is better this time around.
The St Jeremy fairy hunters are hoping to regain the miracle....rinse and repeat....
My very limited exposure on the Norwich doorstep gives me the same feeling as 2010...but multiplied by 10....a slick Tory machine with it's simple message is going to shellax a very poor Labour Party...
The Labour Party will not get anywhere close to 200 seats....
Yeah yeah, we had all of this sort of comment too. Only far worse. I think there are still jitters amongst tories. Maybe they know their support is soft.
In some ways my ideal result is a 1992. A really narrow Johnson outright win. Just enough to see him govern over total chaos for up to 5 yrs followed by a thumping Labour landslide under a moderate Labour leader.
If Labour only narrowly lose, it will be another nutter like Long-Bailey.
The irony is a really thumping defeat might see Labour in a better position to win power in the medium term, as it would surely purge this loathsome poison from it. A narrow defeat and they will try again,and again...and keep losing.
On thread- OGH is right- this election in only heading in one direction- and a comfortable Tory majority....
Which is exactly what they said at exactly this time two years ago.
In fact, Labour's position viz a viz the tories is better this time around.
The St Jeremy fairy hunters are hoping to regain the miracle....rinse and repeat....
My very limited exposure on the Norwich doorstep gives me the same feeling as 2010...but multiplied by 10....a slick Tory machine with it's simple message is going to shellax a very poor Labour Party...
The Labour Party will not get anywhere close to 200 seats....
Yeah yeah, we had all of this sort of comment too. Only far worse. I think there are still jitters amongst tories. Maybe they know their support is soft.
In some ways my ideal result is a 1992. A really narrow Johnson outright win. Just enough to see him govern over total chaos for up to 5 yrs followed by a thumping Labour landslide under a moderate Labour leader.
If Labour is thumped ie sub 200 seats, with Watson and most of the moderates gone too Pidcock will probably take over and pick up where Corbyn left off. Labour will then be lucky to avoid falling to third at the subsequent general election behind a LDs led by say Chuka and the Tories never mind winning with a landslide it will be doing well to stay the main opposition
I don't think Labour are remotely ready for what's coming in 4 weeks 5 days time
Probably not, the supply and confidence discussions with the LDs and others will be tricky.
If it comes down to that then the bit we should all really be looking forward to is when we find ourselves lumbered with a UK Government propped up by SNP votes negotiating Scottish independence with the SNP.
It'll make the Brexit shitstorm look like a minor squall.
The sooner that happy day comes the better
In all seriousness the next GE is unlikely to lead directly to indyref 2. A Tory majority means no, at least for now. And, absent that, no stable governing majority is likely to be formed by Labour under Corbyn, given that they're liable to be too far short of the winning post to get past it with SNP votes alone.
If the Tories fall short there'll probably be another election in the New Year, once either Brexit has been halted or the EU has allowed us to kick the can again. After that, we'll see how the numbers stack up.
Hmmm, we shall see , any ban by stupid Westminster parties will cause big trouble , people will not accept arseholes in Westminster dictating to Scotland.
In the event that the Tories win, much depends on (a) the size of the majority and (b) the outcome of the 2021 Scottish Parliament election.
The Scottish Unionists have a huge vested interest in preventing a divorce. A great many English Conservatives, on the other hand, may see a silver lining to it.
But we're getting ahead of ourselves. First we must get this election out of the way. I look forward to the SNP getting rid of the SLAB contingent. All Labour losses are to be celebrated.
Given where we've got to with Northern Ireland, an indy campaign to rejoin the EU would unequivocally be campaigning for a hard border with England.
On Topic: My worry from these figures is that there seems to have been a major Labour -> Brexit Party swing which if the Brexit Party doesn't stand could return to the Labour Party not go to the Tories. See the North West as an example, there are many in the NW who wouldn't be seen dead voting for the Tories but are now saying BXP.
This happened in 2017. The Labour Party in 2017 didn't just squeeze the Lib Dems, they squeezed UKIP too. UKIP stood down and their voters didn't go to the Tories they went to Labour. The Tories polled around what they were polling before the election was called but UKIP polled 5% fewer than they were polling, I see no evidence that 5% went to anyone other than Labour.
I think that's right, and I think that's the main advantage that TBP bring to the Conservatives. You can't shift voters around like chess pieces.
Anecdata from an afternoon canvassing in 3-way marginal Portsmouth South (Southsea ward, LinDem-held). High winds and steady rain made it tiresome, but there were 8 Labour canvassers from the bustling Labour office (yesterday apparently 16), tackling the hard-to-enter mansion blocks along the front - once someone let you in, you had a dry 20 minutes, wahey! Those who expressed an opinion were all Labour or Tory (about 2-1) but lots of don't knows, some obviously genuine, some I assume privately against. I saw only one poster, a LibDem.
Nobody mentioned Brexit explicitly and insofar as people raised anything it was the economy and general "confusion at all the goings on". We experimentally raised Brexit ourselves ("we will give people another chance to decide") a few times without any particular reaction. The big plus point for Labour was the MP, Stephen Morgan - everyone seemed to know him and respect him for hard work, and some planned to vote for him simply in the perceived absence of compelling reasons to vote in any direction otherwise. Some voters disliked Johnson, Corbyn and Swinson with apparently equal passion.
All the evidence (Survation poll, local council election in May) suggests a very close race. The LibDems were leafleting widely, apparently more than canvassing, while the Tories were pursuing a core vote strategy, with very intensive canvassing of their core wards and not much elsewhere. I saw the small LibDem Southsea office, which looked considerably quieter than the Labour one.
Hard to call on a few hours' experience, but if I had to guess, I'd think first term incumbency and activist enthusiasm will see Morgan home.
To be fair, is there any point in mentioning Brexit to a Labour Party canvasser? It's not like Labour has a Brexit policy.
I often like your comments Robert but that's a little carefree?
It took them two years but Labour do in fact have a sensible Brexit policy, which the tabloids refuse to listen to.
A customs union deal vs Remain in a 2nd ref.
It's pretty straightforward.
Their policy is to negotiate a deal and urge people to vote against it.
On Topic: My worry from these figures is that there seems to have been a major Labour -> Brexit Party swing which if the Brexit Party doesn't stand could return to the Labour Party not go to the Tories. See the North West as an example, there are many in the NW who wouldn't be seen dead voting for the Tories but are now saying BXP.
This happened in 2017. The Labour Party in 2017 didn't just squeeze the Lib Dems, they squeezed UKIP too. UKIP stood down and their voters didn't go to the Tories they went to Labour. The Tories polled around what they were polling before the election was called but UKIP polled 5% fewer than they were polling, I see no evidence that 5% went to anyone other than Labour.
The Brexit Party are standing across the North so will keep those Labour Leave votes
Slightly weird nobody mentioned Brexit. Must be some sort of 2019 record.
Not sure about that, have heard it from other parts too. A lot of people have filed it mentally as "too difficult to worry about", I think.
In my experience, there are plenty of Brexit voters who won't mention it until they know they are on friendly turf. Until you say, we have to get Brexit done. Then they open up. On Remainers. With both barrels.
Labour is reading this W-A-Y wrong if they are thinking Brexit isn't really much of an issue.
To be fair, is there any point in mentioning Brexit to a Labour Party canvasser? It's not like Labour has a Brexit policy.
Lol! But they didn't seem interested when we raised it either. I'm not sure the whole ppulation is as engaged as we might wish. Certainly felt like the run-up to low turnout.
LDs now ahead of Corbyn Labour in Scotland as well as the East of England, South East England and South West England. Only in London, the North, the Midlands and Wales are Labour even still the Tories main opponents and only in the North East, London and Wales are Labour actually ahead.
Have had a busy day canvassing in Chingford for IDS and delivering in Harlow for Robert Halfon. In Chingford the Tory vote was solid, certainly on the Leave side, there were a few Tory Remainers wavering but they were only considering the LDs, they all could not stand Corbyn
, given Labour are at almost zero in Scotland that is no surprise, UKIP are likely to be ahead of them.
There is a swimg from the SNP to the LDs with Yougov too in Scotland
Anecdata from an afternoon canvassing in 3-way marginal Portsmouth South (Southsea ward, LinDem-held). High winds and steady rain made it tiresome, but there were 8 Labour canvassers from the bustling Labour office (yesterday apparently 16), tackling the hard-to-enter mansion blocks along the front - once someone let you in, you had a dry 20 minutes, wahey! Those who expressed an opinion were all Labour or Tory (about 2-1) but lots of don't knows, some obviously genuine, some I assume privately against. I saw only one poster, a LibDem.
Nobody mentioned Brexit explicitly and insofar as people raised anything it was the economy and general "confusion at all the goings on". We experimentally raised Brexit ourselves ("we will give people another chance to decide") a few times without any particular reaction. The big plus point for Labour was the MP, Stephen Morgan - everyone seemed to know him and respect him for hard work, and some planned to vote for him simply in the perceived absence of compelling reasons to vote in any direction otherwise. Some voters disliked Johnson, Corbyn and Swinson with apparently equal passion.
All the evidence (Survation poll, local council election in May) suggests a very close race. The LibDems were leafleting widely, apparently more than canvassing, while the Tories were pursuing a core vote strategy, with very intensive canvassing of their core wards and not much elsewhere. I saw the small LibDem Southsea office, which looked considerably quieter than the Labour one.
Hard to call on a few hours' experience, but if I had to guess, I'd think first term incumbency and activist enthusiasm will see Morgan home.
To be fair, is there any point in mentioning Brexit to a Labour Party canvasser? It's not like Labour has a Brexit policy.
I often like your comments Robert but that's a little carefree?
It took them two years but Labour do in fact have a sensible Brexit policy, which the tabloids refuse to listen to.
A customs union deal vs Remain in a 2nd ref.
It's pretty straightforward.
It's not really a Brexit policy is it? A choice between Brexit in name only, or actually staying in. So two non-Brexit options, really.
Anecdata from an afternoon canvassing in 3-way marginal Portsmouth South (Southsea ward, LinDem-held). High winds and steady rain made it tiresome, but there were 8 Labour canvassers from the bustling Labour office (yesterday apparently 16), tackling the hard-to-enter mansion blocks along the front - once someone let you in, you had a dry 20 minutes, wahey! Those who expressed an opinion were all Labour or Tory (about 2-1) but lots of don't knows, some obviously genuine, some I assume privately against. I saw only one poster, a LibDem.
Nobody mentioned Brexit explicitly and insofar as people raised anything it was the economy and general "confusion at all the goings on". We experimentally raised Brexit ourselves ("we will give people another chance to decide") a few times without any particular reaction. The big plus point for Labour was the MP, Stephen Morgan - everyone seemed to know him and respect him for hard work, and some planned to vote for him simply in the perceived absence of compelling reasons to vote in any direction otherwise. Some voters disliked Johnson, Corbyn and Swinson with apparently equal passion.
All the evidence (Survation poll, local council election in May) suggests a very close race. The LibDems were leafleting widely, apparently more than canvassing, while the Tories were pursuing a core vote strategy, with very intensive canvassing of their core wards and not much elsewhere. I saw the small LibDem Southsea office, which looked considerably quieter than the Labour one.
Hard to call on a few hours' experience, but if I had to guess, I'd think first term incumbency and activist enthusiasm will see Morgan home.
To be fair, is there any point in mentioning Brexit to a Labour Party canvasser? It's not like Labour has a Brexit policy.
I often like your comments Robert but that's a little carefree?
It took them two years but Labour do in fact have a sensible Brexit policy, which the tabloids refuse to listen to.
A customs union deal vs Remain in a 2nd ref.
It's pretty straightforward.
Their policy is to negotiate a deal and urge people to vote against it.
Yeah, that’s so sensible...
Well technically I think their policy is to negotiate a deal and then decide whether or not to urge people to vote against it, it's just that everyone knows they will urge them to vote against it.
Mr. Taxman, it's utterly daft. Started with May deciding to ignore the economy and her own party's strength there, and the current idiot splashes cash around like a damned fool.
On thread- OGH is right- this election in only heading in one direction- and a comfortable Tory majority....
Which is exactly what they said at exactly this time two years ago.
In fact, Labour's position viz a viz the tories is better this time around.
Does Labour still have the capacity to squeeze the non-Tory vote this time around, though? That’s the real issue.
Labour didn't squeeze the Tory vote last time...The Tory vote held up quite comfortably give or take....
True. That’s why I said NON-Tory.
Sorry- you are right....
It's funny though thinking back to 2017- May didn't really do too badly, it is just that Labour exceeded anyone's expectations
It became a binary election - give Mrs Strong and Stable a thumping majority, or vote Corbyn to stop her.
Labour need to do this again, but it’s more difficult because Corbyn is so widely loathed now. It’s much less likely he will be able to persuade waverers he’s OK.
Have also had some friends and colleagues selected for seats in the last few days, Gagan Mohindra has been selected to succeed David Gauke in Hertfordshire SW and is someone I have known for a while as an Epping Forest and Essex cllr and hardworking campaigner. Shaun Bailey is an Aberstwyrth contempory of mine and has been selected as Tory candidate for West Bromwich West, Holly Whitbread is another Epping Forest cllr and activist who has got Hull North and fellow Epping Forest cllr Gavin Chambers will fight Islywyn.
An old Warwick contemporary of mine Simon Eardley made the final 3 for Eddisbury but Edward Timpson got it in the end
Hold on. Shaun Bailey as in the Mayoral candidate who will presumably be replaced in that capacity if elected to parliament? That might be important for betting purposes later on.
No, this is another Shaun Bailey based in Newport in Shropshire
Comments
It apparently debunks the notion that boys are better at maths than girls by hooking up about 50 or so to some sort of scan to measure brain activity during maths questions. The same parts of the brains lit up.
Now, it was a short story so maybe some critical detail was missed [and if you have that, please do share as I'd like to know if I missed something], but that just means the same part of the brain is active. I'd hazard a guess the same would be seen if the scans were done for language skills (at which girls are better than boys).
The same part of the brain being active just means the anatomy's the same. I have biceps the same place as a bodybuilder. It doesn't mean my bicep is just as strong.
Nobody mentioned Brexit explicitly and insofar as people raised anything it was the economy and general "confusion at all the goings on". We experimentally raised Brexit ourselves ("we will give people another chance to decide") a few times without any particular reaction. The big plus point for Labour was the MP, Stephen Morgan - everyone seemed to know him and respect him for hard work, and some planned to vote for him simply in the perceived absence of compelling reasons to vote in any direction otherwise. Some voters disliked Johnson, Corbyn and Swinson with apparently equal passion.
All the evidence (Survation poll, local council election in May) suggests a very close race. The LibDems were leafleting widely, apparently more than canvassing, while the Tories were pursuing a core vote strategy, with very intensive canvassing of their core wards and not much elsewhere. I saw the small LibDem Southsea office, which looked considerably quieter than the Labour one.
Hard to call on a few hours' experience, but if I had to guess, I'd think first term incumbency and activist enthusiasm will see Morgan home.
At the bottom of the page is the regional polling . YouGov did the same type of polling about 6 weeks out from the 2017 GE. In most cases the Tories are doing worse than Labour but YouGov instead recently decided to just compare it with the 2017 GE result to make it look worse for Labour .
My personal view is that Labour is indeed heading for a meltdown. I wouldn't even say those 30,000-40,000 majority seats are safe from the LDs if they are seats that are wealthy professional middle class / students. The only seats I can see Labour rely upon in this election are those with a high BAME proportion, and specifically a high SE Asian Muslim vote. Interestingly, there seems to be a pick up in candidates being picked with this background to replace retiring MPs or fight seats.
I have watched the fiirst three seasons - it's a great bit of Sci-fi!
Ironically, until about 100 years ago, mathematics was considered to be beneath the dignity of many men in science and their "computers" were rooms full of women. Look at Pickering's "Havard Computer" and also the work of Henrietta Swan Leavitt and Annie Jump Cannon
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard_Computers
However, that doesn't address the slightly weird way the story was written. It could've been misunderstood or incomplete, but the idea that the same brain areas being activated indicate equality of capability seems rather odd, no?
https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/1193225695033466880?s=20
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASYLSQCa97w
Ok, maybe not actually.
https://twitter.com/gabriel_pogrund/status/1193229684089200640?s=21
The areas of the brain where sex-based differences show up are very localised. Generally speaking (pedants please note the emphasis) women have more interconnections between the two halves of the brain and women have rather more grey matter (men have more white matter). The only areas I can recall that have significant sex-based differences are speech processing (happens in a localised area of the left male brain, more diffusely spread out in the female brain) and the bed nucleus of the stria terminalis which is smaller in women than men and seems to be tied up sexual or gender identity (but the jury is still out on that)
Totnes is unusual with the sitting MP having switched from Con to LibDem. Some still like and respect Dr. Sarah. Many now do not. There is a strong feeling I get across the political divide that MPs who defect should put themselves forward for a by-election. The are good numbers of LibDems who don't like that a former Tory should be their candidate.
I would take a sizeable punt that if the recall laws were expanded to include such defectors, it would be popular. And used.
I am almost sure Lavery will hang on,btw.
Ironic to reflect he would now be an MP if he hadn’t done a chicken run to the more winnable seat of Wakefield.
If you ever plan to enter politics then think before you post on social media . You’d think they would have worked this out by now.
The myelin sheaths being thicker on male axons (from fuzzy university memories) is kind of odd given less myelin is apparently indicative of psychopathology, but almost all psychopaths are male.
If the Tories fall short there'll probably be another election in the New Year, once either Brexit has been halted or the EU has allowed us to kick the can again. After that, we'll see how the numbers stack up.
Maybe there are worse.
Have had a busy day canvassing in Chingford for IDS and delivering in Harlow for Robert Halfon. In Chingford the Tory vote was solid, certainly on the Leave side, there were a few Tory Remainers wavering but they were only considering the LDs, they all could not stand Corbyn
I've put a bit on a Tory majority on Betfair today- it is to soften the pill on the night. I don't do the spread markets
An old Warwick contemporary of mine Simon Eardley made the final 3 for Eddisbury but Edward Timpson got it in the end
In fact, Labour's position viz a viz the tories is better this time around.
Size Of Any Majority
UK General Election (Seats Markets)
Bought @ 22 (£2)
Conservative 400-Ups
UK General Election (Seats Markets)
Bought @ 3 Stake: £5
UKIP Seats
UK General Election (Seats Markets)
Sold @ 0.2 Stake: £75
Tory 400 ups is very marginal as it's ~95% likely to lose but quickly ramps up in value if it wins. The potential loss is very small too for stake.
Any majority buys implied volatility so is the one I'd probably recommend to others right now.
Selling UKIP at 0.1 is free money.
* I re-read the tweet, and it is ambiguous. It talks of an initial vote (implying there was a subsequent one) but then a recount (implying a subsequent count of the same vote).
As I have said before, Totnes town will be strong for Dr. Sarah. - especially with no Green candidate. But there are significantly more votes in Brixham/the edge of Paignton that isn't in Torbay constituency. There has been some Labour strength there, especially in 2017. But it is Brexity. An easier target for the Blues than the Yellows, when the Labour vote starts collapsing.
I'm finding the Tory vote in the more rural areas is still strong. Not saying they aren't there, but the only Brexit Party possible voters I've found were two today. And they were easily talked round to the Blues.
Everywhere, dislike of Corbyn is visceral. Maybe it's just an anti-London thing...?
My very limited exposure on the Norwich doorstep gives me the same feeling as 2010...but multiplied by 10....a slick Tory machine with it's simple message is going to shellax a very poor Labour Party...
The Labour Party will not get anywhere close to 200 seats....
The Scottish Unionists have a huge vested interest in preventing a divorce. A great many English Conservatives, on the other hand, may see a silver lining to it.
But we're getting ahead of ourselves. First we must get this election out of the way. I look forward to the SNP getting rid of the SLAB contingent. All Labour losses are to be celebrated.
This happened in 2017. The Labour Party in 2017 didn't just squeeze the Lib Dems, they squeezed UKIP too. UKIP stood down and their voters didn't go to the Tories they went to Labour. The Tories polled around what they were polling before the election was called but UKIP polled 5% fewer than they were polling, I see no evidence that 5% went to anyone other than Labour.
It's all very well being authentic, but political effectiveness first requires getting elected. And visibly demonstrating you're a pillock - even if you're right - is a great way of ensuring you never do get elected.
True, though.
In some ways my ideal result is a 1992. A really narrow Johnson outright win. Just enough to see him govern over total chaos for up to 5 yrs followed by a thumping Labour landslide under a moderate Labour leader.
Two years ago, we did not appreciate how institutionally racist the Labour Party would turn out to be
I agree with Mike. The Tories will win this, probably with a smallish majority, but a majority nonetheless. The LibDems will come second too often and reduce the Labour vote so Boris and the Tories will benefit from that.
Banging on about irrelevant feminist issues is precisely what Harman does much of the time - and misleading about some things that are significant issues. That is partly why the Fawcett society found a couple of years ago that only 4% of men and 9% of women call themselves feminist; Harman and friends have made the word toxic.
There is a history as long as your arm of faked up food poverty stats - especially by journos and politicos translating "x" parcels supplies by Trussell into "x" people.
The other stuff eg commenting on Mary Creagh's appearance on TV, and mentioning "Londonistan" looks more damaging. I would say it is Tory High Command killing a story the media would go for.
If it was just Harman and Food Poverty, it might be a useful controversy.
It took them two years but Labour do in fact have a sensible Brexit policy, which the tabloids refuse to listen to.
A customs union deal vs Remain in a 2nd ref.
It's pretty straightforward.
The irony is a really thumping defeat might see Labour in a better position to win power in the medium term, as it would surely purge this loathsome poison from it. A narrow defeat and they will try again,and again...and keep losing.
It's funny though thinking back to 2017- May didn't really do too badly, it is just that Labour exceeded anyone's expectations
Yeah, that’s so sensible...
Labour is reading this W-A-Y wrong if they are thinking Brexit isn't really much of an issue.
Labour need to do this again, but it’s more difficult because Corbyn is so widely loathed now. It’s much less likely he will be able to persuade waverers he’s OK.