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  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106


    Oh yes. That is all that needs to be done. Just a minor detail for the next 7 to 10 years....

    I was, of course, talking of the perception rather than the practicalities.

    The Tories will be delighted with ongoing challenging negotiations with the EU because there will be zero electoral mileage for political parties offering anything other than a muscular response to the EU.

    'Vote for us and we will sell you out to the EU' isn't going to be a popular election slogan in 2024, 2029 or any other year for that matter.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Putting the latest four polls into my model gives:

    Con 325
    Lab 221
    LD 36
    SNP 48

    Sporting Index

    Con 325-333
    Lab 207-215
    LD 46-49
    SNP 42-47

    325 would be perfect in one respect - Boris will have enough votes to see a decision made on this phase of Brexit, but he cannot officially be able to claim he, like Cameron, won a majority.
    SF would still officially boycott Parliament?
    Why would they change tack now?
    Point being Boris would only need 322 for a majority. Assuming SF win 7 seats.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Putting the latest four polls into my model gives:

    Con 325
    Lab 221
    LD 36
    SNP 48

    Sporting Index

    Con 325-333
    Lab 207-215
    LD 46-49
    SNP 42-47

    325 would be perfect in one respect - Boris will have enough votes to see a decision made on this phase of Brexit, but he cannot officially be able to claim he, like Cameron, won a majority.
    If Boris Johnson fails to win a majority I will become (even more) unbearable as I will repeatedly point out that in the last 27 years David Cameron (pbuh) is the only Tory to win a majority.
    Cameron failed first time despite facing an open goal. No doubt you would be in favour of giving Mr Johnson another chance in that circumstance,
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865

    Apparently the sun have asked the bbc bods that tweet the front pages not to do include their paper from now on. Interesting decision / timing.

    Not within the power of the Sun to “decide”. They put filth in the public domain, then anybody has the right to show them up. Journalists need to be scrutinised
    DavidL said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MOS late with delta poll. :open_mouth:

    Also no MORI or Survation or ORB or ComRes!
    Yes been a very disappointing evening for polls considering there's an election campaign going on as we speak! :(
    Polls cost money and in recent years the polls have been as accurate as an American war film.
    How could we possibly have won Agincourt without them?
    “We”? The Scots were allies of the French.
    Debatable. Our King at the time, James I , had fought on behalf of Henry V in France.
  • twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1193284497011302401

    Not stopping me having the wobbles. Canada is f##king cold this time of year.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,060

    CatMan said:

    If Boris wins a general election we should have an online petition to send Gina Miller to Brussels, receive Belgian citizenship and send her there for good. The woman is a bloody menace.

    If it makes you feel any better, she regularly gets death threats and needs bodyguards when she appears at public gatherings.
    I don't wish her any physical harm. I would just throw her out of the country and revoke her citizenship since she is clearly so desperate to be an EU citizen.
    Well I think about half the country wanted to keep their EU citizenship (including me).
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    edited November 2019
    Very similar to the opinium poll.

    Brexit party squeeze as well.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117

    tyson said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MOS late with delta poll. :open_mouth:

    Also no MORI or Survation or ORB or ComRes!
    Yes been a very disappointing evening for polls considering there's an election campaign going on as we speak! :(
    Polls cost money and in recent years the polls have been as accurate as an American war film.
    The Deer Hunter- the whole Russian roulette stuff was just made up....
    Oh wow. I thought that film was a documentary on the Vietnam War.

    Actually, re-watching the Deer Hunter now, the depiction of the VietCong was completely fabricated. Possibly you can justify this kind of narrative on occasion for cinematic effect, but when millions of Vietnamese died pointlessly in this terrible venture, it is hard to justify.

    Morally, the Deer Hunter is one of the most dubious films I have ever seen- it presents itself as an anti war movie, but when you watch it you are desperate to see the Yanks kick the inhuman Gook butts....
  • SunnyJim said:


    Anne - If Boris gets a majority it may solve the current Brexit problem, but as I used to tell people when I was in the consulting business, when you solve your number one problem, you promote your number two problem.

    Once we are technically "out" we still be in until at least 2021 and I am not sure how many Leavers have realised that. Freedom of Movement will still apply. It will at that point that many will go "They can still come here even though we are out?" and there will be more political drama.

    I am unsure if Johnson's govt will actually last very long.

    Leaver angst is driven by the possibility of remainers overturning the referendum result.

    Once the answer to the question "Can Brexit be stopped?" is an unequivocal "No" then that will be considered the battle won with just the administrative loose ends to be tied up.
    "... just the administrative loose ends to be tied up"

    Oh yes. That is all that needs to be done. Just a minor detail for the next 7 to 10 years....
    It's not worth it. Brexiteers are all completely clueless on the details of how Brexit actually works. You'd have more luck discussing the finer points of nineteenth century Russian literature with your dog.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Still you could claw a lot of it back with £10 off a £40 spend at LIDL- GERMANS!!!!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    tyson said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MOS late with delta poll. :open_mouth:

    Also no MORI or Survation or ORB or ComRes!
    Yes been a very disappointing evening for polls considering there's an election campaign going on as we speak! :(
    Polls cost money and in recent years the polls have been as accurate as an American war film.
    The Deer Hunter- the whole Russian roulette stuff was just made up....
    You watch the film again, and you think what a pile of shit....despite the first hour being one of the most most brilliant pieces of cinema.....
    Worth reading 'Final Cut' by Steven Bach if you are interested in Deer Hunter. About the Making of Cimino's Heaven's Gate. One of the best and funniest film books I've read.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    The last four polls have the Conservatives 11% ahead, on average. That's pretty consistent.
  • matt said:

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Putting the latest four polls into my model gives:

    Con 325
    Lab 221
    LD 36
    SNP 48

    Sporting Index

    Con 325-333
    Lab 207-215
    LD 46-49
    SNP 42-47

    325 would be perfect in one respect - Boris will have enough votes to see a decision made on this phase of Brexit, but he cannot officially be able to claim he, like Cameron, won a majority.
    If Boris Johnson fails to win a majority I will become (even more) unbearable as I will repeatedly point out that in the last 27 years David Cameron (pbuh) is the only Tory to win a majority.
    Cameron failed first time despite facing an open goal. No doubt you would be in favour of giving Mr Johnson another chance in that circumstance,
    Not really, David Cameron started from a much lower base, fewer than 200 MPs, he gained more Tory MPs in one go in the last century than anyone else.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Putting the latest four polls into my model gives:

    Con 325
    Lab 221
    LD 36
    SNP 48

    Sporting Index

    Con 325-333
    Lab 207-215
    LD 46-49
    SNP 42-47

    325 would be perfect in one respect - Boris will have enough votes to see a decision made on this phase of Brexit, but he cannot officially be able to claim he, like Cameron, won a majority.
    SF would still officially boycott Parliament?
    Why would they change tack now?
    Point being Boris would only need 322 for a majority. Assuming SF win 7 seats.
    Point being he could pass things, as I stated, but you cannot claim an official parliamentary majority without a majority of the seats, you won't find bookies paying out on 323 seats.

    After all, with SF and Speaker and Deputy Speakers the bar was even lower than 322 for an effective majority, but that doesn't make an official parliamentary majority change from 326.

    It's an ego thing. Boris would be incredibly annoyed to not achieve a majority, even if he could still pass things.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,060
    I know it's already been posted, but here it is again anyway!
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1193285239327641601?s=20
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Barnesian said:

    Putting the latest four polls into my model gives:

    Con 325
    Lab 221
    LD 36
    SNP 48

    Sporting Index

    Con 325-333
    Lab 207-215
    LD 46-49
    SNP 42-47

    How many seats are the Tories forecast to hold in Scotland?
  • Still you could claw a lot of it back with £10 off a £40 spend at LIDL- GERMANS!!!!
    I have never been in a lidl.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Shes going for the Leadership none of this Deputy crap
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156

    Shes going for the Leadership none of this Deputy crap
    You think she wants Labour to lose, so she can usurp Corbyn?!
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    matt said:

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Putting the latest four polls into my model gives:

    Con 325
    Lab 221
    LD 36
    SNP 48

    Sporting Index

    Con 325-333
    Lab 207-215
    LD 46-49
    SNP 42-47

    325 would be perfect in one respect - Boris will have enough votes to see a decision made on this phase of Brexit, but he cannot officially be able to claim he, like Cameron, won a majority.
    If Boris Johnson fails to win a majority I will become (even more) unbearable as I will repeatedly point out that in the last 27 years David Cameron (pbuh) is the only Tory to win a majority.
    Cameron failed first time despite facing an open goal. No doubt you would be in favour of giving Mr Johnson another chance in that circumstance,
    Not really, David Cameron started from a much lower base, fewer than 200 MPs, he gained more Tory MPs in one go in the last century than anyone else.
    Failure is failure. To take an apposite example, Liverpool FC did quite well in the Premier League last year. They were still second,
  • Shes going for the Leadership none of this Deputy crap
    Certainly how I read it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    edited November 2019
    I'm so brilliant that everyone wants me to run, which I will graciously do but can't admit it yet.

    There you are, even shorter statement.
  • The scandal over Boris Johnson’s friendship with technology entrepreneur Jennifer Arcuri was reignited on Saturday after the Observer revealed that the independent police watchdog has delayed its announcement on whether the PM should face an investigation into possible criminal misconduct until after the election.

    The decision prompted fury from Westminster politicians and London assembly members who said it appeared that a ruling had been “suppressed” in order to protect Johnson from potentially damaging headlines at a crucial stage of the election campaign.

    In a private meeting held before parliament was dissolved last week, the Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC) officials agreed not to announce whether they were going to investigate “possible criminality” over allegations about a conflict of interest in Johnson’s dealings while mayor of London with US businesswoman Jennifer Arcuri until after the election.

    Sources close to the IOPC investigation said the watchdog was on the verge of announcing its decision on whether it was proceeding with a criminal investigation.

    The IOPC was tasked by the Greater London Authority with assessing whether criminal charges should be brought because of the then-mayor’s responsibility for London’s policing.

    It is alleged Arcuri received favourable treatment due to her friendship with Johnson, including receiving large sums of public money for her technology firms.

    The offence of misconduct in public office carries a maximum term of life imprisonment. Johnson has denied any impropriety.

    Jon Trickett, shadow Cabinet Office minister, said: “This is incredible. It’s a suppression of information which the public is entitled to have. Given the fact we’re in a general election there should be maximum transparency.”

    He added. “This decision must be reversed immediately.”

    Caroline Pidgeon, a Lib Dem member of the London assembly’s oversight committee, said the delay raised the possibility of Downing Street contact with the IOPC before its decision. “It raises questions over how independent the IOPC really is and whether the prime minister’s lawyers have been exerting undue pressure,” she said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/09/boris-johnson-jennifer-arcuri-iopc-delay-announcement-investigation?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Farage has blown it! :D
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    Apparently the sun have asked the bbc bods that tweet the front pages not to do include their paper from now on. Interesting decision / timing.

    Have they given a reason?
    Tony Gallagher's wanted to be able to direct traffic to The Sun's website.
    Gallagher has a fascinating career arc. Editor of the Telegraph, then dep ed of the Mail, then editor of the Sun. I'm presuming the Sunday Sport is next in line.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    matt said:

    matt said:

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Putting the latest four polls into my model gives:

    Con 325
    Lab 221
    LD 36
    SNP 48

    Sporting Index

    Con 325-333
    Lab 207-215
    LD 46-49
    SNP 42-47

    325 would be perfect in one respect - Boris will have enough votes to see a decision made on this phase of Brexit, but he cannot officially be able to claim he, like Cameron, won a majority.
    If Boris Johnson fails to win a majority I will become (even more) unbearable as I will repeatedly point out that in the last 27 years David Cameron (pbuh) is the only Tory to win a majority.
    Cameron failed first time despite facing an open goal. No doubt you would be in favour of giving Mr Johnson another chance in that circumstance,
    Not really, David Cameron started from a much lower base, fewer than 200 MPs, he gained more Tory MPs in one go in the last century than anyone else.
    Failure is failure. To take an apposite example, Liverpool FC did quite well in the Premier League last year. They were still second,
    Yes, but there are levels of failure. Everyone else also failed to win league, but for some it was more of a failure, and for others failing to do so was less of a failure than others, because it would have been so much harder for them to succeed.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    GIN1138 said:

    Farage has blown it! :D

    😂😂😂😂😂

    He's a Remainer!
  • matt said:

    matt said:

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Putting the latest four polls into my model gives:

    Con 325
    Lab 221
    LD 36
    SNP 48

    Sporting Index

    Con 325-333
    Lab 207-215
    LD 46-49
    SNP 42-47

    325 would be perfect in one respect - Boris will have enough votes to see a decision made on this phase of Brexit, but he cannot officially be able to claim he, like Cameron, won a majority.
    If Boris Johnson fails to win a majority I will become (even more) unbearable as I will repeatedly point out that in the last 27 years David Cameron (pbuh) is the only Tory to win a majority.
    Cameron failed first time despite facing an open goal. No doubt you would be in favour of giving Mr Johnson another chance in that circumstance,
    Not really, David Cameron started from a much lower base, fewer than 200 MPs, he gained more Tory MPs in one go in the last century than anyone else.
    Failure is failure. To take an apposite example, Liverpool FC did quite well in the Premier League last year. They were still second,
    David Cameron took the Conservatives from Opposition into Government, do you honestly think the Tories finished second in 2010?

    Also you analogy is pretty crap, Liverpool became the Champions of Europe last season, for the sixth time.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    matt said:

    matt said:

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Putting the latest four polls into my model gives:

    Con 325
    Lab 221
    LD 36
    SNP 48

    Sporting Index

    Con 325-333
    Lab 207-215
    LD 46-49
    SNP 42-47

    325 would be perfect in one respect - Boris will have enough votes to see a decision made on this phase of Brexit, but he cannot officially be able to claim he, like Cameron, won a majority.
    If Boris Johnson fails to win a majority I will become (even more) unbearable as I will repeatedly point out that in the last 27 years David Cameron (pbuh) is the only Tory to win a majority.
    Cameron failed first time despite facing an open goal. No doubt you would be in favour of giving Mr Johnson another chance in that circumstance,
    Not really, David Cameron started from a much lower base, fewer than 200 MPs, he gained more Tory MPs in one go in the last century than anyone else.
    Failure is failure. To take an apposite example, Liverpool FC did quite well in the Premier League last year. They were still second,
    Yeah but he did end up becoming PM and forming a government, so he didn't end up second did he? He won the PL, just some of the minor players were loaned from another club.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    nico67 said:

    An interesting result in the Panelbase . It showed Labour now ahead of the Tories on the NHS by 7 points . Regardless of whether there’s any real concern regarding the NHS and a US trade deal the fear alone could help Labour.

    Pah...Labour should be 25 pts ahead on the NHS.. and its only one issue.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    matt said:

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Putting the latest four polls into my model gives:

    Con 325
    Lab 221
    LD 36
    SNP 48

    Sporting Index

    Con 325-333
    Lab 207-215
    LD 46-49
    SNP 42-47

    325 would be perfect in one respect - Boris will have enough votes to see a decision made on this phase of Brexit, but he cannot officially be able to claim he, like Cameron, won a majority.
    If Boris Johnson fails to win a majority I will become (even more) unbearable as I will repeatedly point out that in the last 27 years David Cameron (pbuh) is the only Tory to win a majority.
    Cameron failed first time despite facing an open goal. No doubt you would be in favour of giving Mr Johnson another chance in that circumstance,
    Not really, David Cameron started from a much lower base, fewer than 200 MPs, he gained more Tory MPs in one go in the last century than anyone else.
    I thought you were an anti-Brexit kinda guy?

    In which case you celebrating Cameron's majority is like a turkey saying "I cannot get over the wondrous beauty of that event in a Bethlehem stable all those centuries ago..."
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Still you could claw a lot of it back with £10 off a £40 spend at LIDL- GERMANS!!!!
    I have never been in a lidl.
    I got my £10 off £40 voucher yesterday will be in there before the midweek deadline.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2019
    The Panelbase poll this evening is producing very similar seat numbers as the YouGov regional poll yesterday when you put it through the seat calculators. (In fact it's putting the Tories slightly higher at 391 seats compared to 374 with the YouGov regional poll).
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MOS late with delta poll. :open_mouth:

    Also no MORI or Survation or ORB or ComRes!
    Yes been a very disappointing evening for polls considering there's an election campaign going on as we speak! :(
    Polls cost money and in recent years the polls have been as accurate as an American war film.
    The Deer Hunter- the whole Russian roulette stuff was just made up....
    Oh wow. I thought that film was a documentary on the Vietnam War.

    Actually, re-watching the Deer Hunter now, the depiction of the VietCong was completely fabricated. Possibly you can justify this kind of narrative on occasion for cinematic effect, but when millions of Vietnamese died pointlessly in this terrible venture, it is hard to justify.

    Morally, the Deer Hunter is one of the most dubious films I have ever seen- it presents itself as an anti war movie, but when you watch it you are desperate to see the Yanks kick the inhuman Gook butts....
    I think you're taking it and yourself a little too seriously. It's a film. It's rather good at portraying the human cost in 4 ordinary American lives. At the time it came out, 1978, that was probably a message worth telling.

    But, yeah, if you want a great version of what the American War (as it's called over there) was all about then the Ken Burns and Lynn Novick 18-hour ten episode series is a masterpiece.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156

    The scandal over Boris Johnson’s friendship with technology entrepreneur Jennifer Arcuri was reignited on Saturday after the Observer revealed that the independent police watchdog has delayed its announcement on whether the PM should face an investigation into possible criminal misconduct until after the election.

    People only believe the watchdog is independent when it does what they want or delivers the outcome they want, shocker. I bet Boris's people were saying the same things as those outraged by the watchdog's decision when it was suggested it had a role at all.
  • matt said:

    matt said:

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Putting the latest four polls into my model gives:

    Con 325
    Lab 221
    LD 36
    SNP 48

    Sporting Index

    Con 325-333
    Lab 207-215
    LD 46-49
    SNP 42-47

    325 would be perfect in one respect - Boris will have enough votes to see a decision made on this phase of Brexit, but he cannot officially be able to claim he, like Cameron, won a majority.
    If Boris Johnson fails to win a majority I will become (even more) unbearable as I will repeatedly point out that in the last 27 years David Cameron (pbuh) is the only Tory to win a majority.
    Cameron failed first time despite facing an open goal. No doubt you would be in favour of giving Mr Johnson another chance in that circumstance,
    Not really, David Cameron started from a much lower base, fewer than 200 MPs, he gained more Tory MPs in one go in the last century than anyone else.
    Failure is failure. To take an apposite example, Liverpool FC did quite well in the Premier League last year. They were still second,
    Dave became Premier in 2010!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    CatMan said:

    I know it's already been posted, but here it is again anyway!
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1193285239327641601?s=20

    That's looking like a LOT of Brexit Party lost deposits.....
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    I've just had a look at the quote and comments....what are all these Jezziah's going to do when they find that they are shellaxed, and looking at the worst Labour seat tally since the 1930's.....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721

    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1193281570867752962

    Seems we are getting into the meat of this election now.

    Labour spending spree bad, Tory spending spree and hard Brexit good...
  • tyson said:

    I've just had a look at the quote and comments....what are all these Jezziah's going to do when they find that they are shellaxed, and looking at the worst Labour seat tally since the 1930's.....
    It will be the wrong type of electorate, they will never accept that they are wrong. At least Foot got ousted post 83, I fear that the Labour Party as we knew it has probably gone.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Well, I thought Labour would be averaging 30% this weekend, and so far we've had two 29s which isn't too wide of the mark (I'm not counting the 30% from Panelbase yesterday, since that might be regarded as cheating, but it's satisfying nonetheless.) So, let's see if there are any more polls tonight before making a formal prediction, but I reckon the Labour mean will be up another couple of points or so by next weekend. They're only headed one way from now on...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    tyson said:

    I've just had a look at the quote and comments....what are all these Jezziah's going to do when they find that they are shellaxed, and looking at the worst Labour seat tally since the 1930's.....
    It will be the wrong type of electorate, they will never accept that they are wrong. At least Foot got ousted post 83, I fear that the Labour Party as we knew it has probably gone.
    I don't think it would be missed frankly if Johnson were not the alternative.
  • I'm delighted to announce tomorrow afternoon's thread features a discussion about the alternative vote system.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156

    CatMan said:

    I know it's already been posted, but here it is again anyway!
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1193285239327641601?s=20

    That's looking like a LOT of Brexit Party lost deposits.....
    What do they care? They're trying to achieve the prevention of fake Brexit...by achieving Remain instead. Deposits lost won't be the concern. More power to them, it works for me.
  • I'm delighted to announce tomorrow afternoon's thread features a discussion about the alternative vote system.

    How it is being adopted by lots of american states?
  • TBP tanking in tonights polls and Farage has pulled out of Sophy on Sunday

    Makes you wonder if Farage may do an about face
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Foxy said:

    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1193281570867752962

    Seems we are getting into the meat of this election now.

    Labour spending spree bad, Tory spending spree and hard Brexit good...
    The cost of a Corbyn government isnt just the money they are planning to spend.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Well, I thought Labour would be averaging 30% this weekend, and so far we've had two 29s which isn't too wide of the mark (I'm not counting the 30% from Panelbase yesterday, since that might be regarded as cheating, but it's satisfying nonetheless.) So, let's see if there are any more polls tonight before making a formal prediction, but I reckon the Labour mean will be up another couple of points or so by next weekend. They're only headed one way from now on...

    The Tories are also headed in an upward direction. I think they may be averaging 40% now for the first time in a long time.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    I'm delighted to announce tomorrow afternoon's thread features a discussion about the alternative vote system.

    Oh good grief. The Apocalypse is upon us.

    I shall go to bed and hope it passes me by.

    Good night.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381

    Well, I thought Labour would be averaging 30% this weekend, and so far we've had two 29s which isn't too wide of the mark (I'm not counting the 30% from Panelbase yesterday, since that might be regarded as cheating, but it's satisfying nonetheless.) So, let's see if there are any more polls tonight before making a formal prediction, but I reckon the Labour mean will be up another couple of points or so by next weekend. They're only headed one way from now on...

    I think they're stuck at 30% or so.
  • Eastleigh falling to the yellow peril?

    https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/1193283094993932289
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    TBP tanking in tonights polls and Farage has pulled out of Sophy on Sunday

    Makes you wonder if Farage may do an about face

    Phrasing.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721

    I'm delighted to announce tomorrow afternoon's thread features a discussion about the alternative vote system.

    Lab Deputy Leader?

    Lay Pidcock, she is losing her seat.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    I'm delighted to announce tomorrow afternoon's thread features a discussion about the alternative vote system.

    What is that when it’s at home?
  • ydoethur said:

    Prince Philip once met a Brazilian general in Rio on a state visit. He expressed curiosity about the large number of medals said general was wearing, and got the answer, 'I won them in the war.'

    'I didn't know Brazil was in the war that long,' joked Philip.

    'Well, at least I didn't get them for marrying my wife,' snapped the General.
    Bit harsh on Phil, some of his medals are for almost-getting-killed-by-the-enemy stuff. Tbf Edward may have run some almost-getting-killed-by-your-own-side risks.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    I'm delighted to announce tomorrow afternoon's thread features a discussion about the alternative vote system.

    Why?
  • I'm delighted to announce tomorrow afternoon's thread features a discussion about the alternative vote system.

    Not a proportional system, I'm afraid...
  • kle4 said:

    matt said:

    matt said:

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Putting the latest four polls into my model gives:

    Con 325
    Lab 221
    LD 36
    SNP 48

    Sporting Index

    Con 325-333
    Lab 207-215
    LD 46-49
    SNP 42-47

    325 would be perfect in one respect - Boris will have enough votes to see a decision made on this phase of Brexit, but he cannot officially be able to claim he, like Cameron, won a majority.
    If Boris Johnson fails to win a majority I will become (even more) unbearable as I will repeatedly point out that in the last 27 years David Cameron (pbuh) is the only Tory to win a majority.
    Cameron failed first time despite facing an open goal. No doubt you would be in favour of giving Mr Johnson another chance in that circumstance,
    Not really, David Cameron started from a much lower base, fewer than 200 MPs, he gained more Tory MPs in one go in the last century than anyone else.
    Failure is failure. To take an apposite example, Liverpool FC did quite well in the Premier League last year. They were still second,
    Yes, but there are levels of failure. Everyone else also failed to win league, but for some it was more of a failure, and for others failing to do so was less of a failure than others, because it would have been so much harder for them to succeed.
    Man City didn't fail to win the league.
  • TBP tanking in tonights polls and Farage has pulled out of Sophy on Sunday

    Makes you wonder if Farage may do an about face

    Phrasing.
    Tangentially, why I'm a huge fan of the Oxford comma.


  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156

    Eastleigh falling to the yellow peril?

    https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/1193283094993932289

    Any other prominent chicken runs?

    Though Eastleigh went pretty darn safe looking in 2017 despite its LD past.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156

    I'm delighted to announce tomorrow afternoon's thread features a discussion about the alternative vote system.

    Why?
    Respite
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381

    Eastleigh falling to the yellow peril?

    https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/1193283094993932289

    They ought to have sent her away with a flea in her ear.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    TBP tanking in tonights polls and Farage has pulled out of Sophy on Sunday

    Makes you wonder if Farage may do an about face

    TBP=CON, time to quit again?
  • I'm delighted to announce tomorrow afternoon's thread features a discussion about the alternative vote system.

    Why?
    It will become very clear tomorrow, no spoilers.
  • tyson said:

    I've just had a look at the quote and comments....what are all these Jezziah's going to do when they find that they are shellaxed, and looking at the worst Labour seat tally since the 1930's.....
    Claim it was a moral victory.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156

    kle4 said:

    matt said:

    matt said:

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Putting the latest four polls into my model gives:

    Con 325
    Lab 221
    LD 36
    SNP 48

    Sporting Index

    Con 325-333
    Lab 207-215
    LD 46-49
    SNP 42-47

    325 would be perfect in one respect - Boris will have enough votes to see a decision made on this phase of Brexit, but he cannot officially be able to claim he, like Cameron, won a majority.
    If Boris Johnson fails to win a majority I will become (even more) unbearable as I will repeatedly point out that in the last 27 years David Cameron (pbuh) is the only Tory to win a majority.
    Cameron failed first time despite facing an open goal. No doubt you would be in favour of giving Mr Johnson another chance in that circumstance,
    Not really, David Cameron started from a much lower base, fewer than 200 MPs, he gained more Tory MPs in one go in the last century than anyone else.
    Failure is failure. To take an apposite example, Liverpool FC did quite well in the Premier League last year. They were still second,
    Yes, but there are levels of failure. Everyone else also failed to win league, but for some it was more of a failure, and for others failing to do so was less of a failure than others, because it would have been so much harder for them to succeed.
    Man City didn't fail to win the league.
    Pedantry at its finest. I actually considered putting 'Everyone else bar City' also failed, but thought I'd leave it unspoken, more fool me.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Sean_F said:

    Well, I thought Labour would be averaging 30% this weekend, and so far we've had two 29s which isn't too wide of the mark (I'm not counting the 30% from Panelbase yesterday, since that might be regarded as cheating, but it's satisfying nonetheless.) So, let's see if there are any more polls tonight before making a formal prediction, but I reckon the Labour mean will be up another couple of points or so by next weekend. They're only headed one way from now on...

    I think they're stuck at 30% or so.
    No way, the homeward procession of the robo...brand loyalty vote continues.

    To clarify, if you were to be proven right then nothing would delight me more. Except for the Labour numbers starting to head downwards again, of course.
  • MoS poll is bad news for Tories. They don't want their voters to think it is all going to be ok and not bother applying for those postal votes now.
  • TBP tanking in tonights polls and Farage has pulled out of Sophy on Sunday

    Makes you wonder if Farage may do an about face

    Phrasing.
    I am so naive at times !!!!!!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    kle4 said:

    Eastleigh falling to the yellow peril?

    https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/1193283094993932289

    Any other prominent chicken runs?

    Though Eastleigh went pretty darn safe looking in 2017 despite its LD past.
    I've never seen a chicken-run like this when no boundary changes have taken place. Surprised they selected her.
  • tyson said:

    tyson said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MOS late with delta poll. :open_mouth:

    Also no MORI or Survation or ORB or ComRes!
    Yes been a very disappointing evening for polls considering there's an election campaign going on as we speak! :(
    Polls cost money and in recent years the polls have been as accurate as an American war film.
    The Deer Hunter- the whole Russian roulette stuff was just made up....
    Oh wow. I thought that film was a documentary on the Vietnam War.

    Actually, re-watching the Deer Hunter now, the depiction of the VietCong was completely fabricated. Possibly you can justify this kind of narrative on occasion for cinematic effect, but when millions of Vietnamese died pointlessly in this terrible venture, it is hard to justify.

    Morally, the Deer Hunter is one of the most dubious films I have ever seen- it presents itself as an anti war movie, but when you watch it you are desperate to see the Yanks kick the inhuman Gook butts....
    I think you're taking it and yourself a little too seriously. It's a film. It's rather good at portraying the human cost in 4 ordinary American lives. At the time it came out, 1978, that was probably a message worth telling.

    But, yeah, if you want a great version of what the American War (as it's called over there) was all about then the Ken Burns and Lynn Novick 18-hour ten episode series is a masterpiece.
    It is v. good. I'm all aquiver to see Burns' series on Country & Western.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381

    Sean_F said:

    Well, I thought Labour would be averaging 30% this weekend, and so far we've had two 29s which isn't too wide of the mark (I'm not counting the 30% from Panelbase yesterday, since that might be regarded as cheating, but it's satisfying nonetheless.) So, let's see if there are any more polls tonight before making a formal prediction, but I reckon the Labour mean will be up another couple of points or so by next weekend. They're only headed one way from now on...

    I think they're stuck at 30% or so.
    No way, the homeward procession of the robo...brand loyalty vote continues.

    To clarify, if you were to be proven right then nothing would delight me more. Except for the Labour numbers starting to head downwards again, of course.
    30% is the Labour loyalist vote.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117

    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MOS late with delta poll. :open_mouth:

    Also no MORI or Survation or ORB or ComRes!
    Yes been a very disappointing evening for polls considering there's an election campaign going on as we speak! :(
    Polls cost money and in recent years the polls have been as accurate as an American war film.
    The Deer Hunter- the whole Russian roulette stuff was just made up....
    Oh wow. I thought that film was a documentary on the Vietnam War.

    Actually, re-watching the Deer Hunter now, the depiction of the VietCong was completely fabricated. Possibly you can justify this kind of narrative on occasion for cinematic effect, but when millions of Vietnamese died pointlessly in this terrible venture, it is hard to justify.

    Morally, the Deer Hunter is one of the most dubious films I have ever seen- it presents itself as an anti war movie, but when you watch it you are desperate to see the Yanks kick the inhuman Gook butts....
    I think you're taking it and yourself a little too seriously. It's a film. It's rather good at portraying the human cost in 4 ordinary American lives. At the time it came out, 1978, that was probably a message worth telling.

    But, yeah, if you want a great version of what the American War (as it's called over there) was all about then the Ken Burns and Lynn Novick 18-hour ten episode series is a masterpiece.
    Agreed about the American War series....
    The Deer Hunter- the film that dehumanised the Viet Cong was followed by Apocalypse Now which was probably even more morally ambiguous by depicting the Americans as too soft to fight the war. The point of Apocalypse Now wasn't the fact that the US shouldn't have been there, but they were not brutal enough.

    And then we had terrible films like Back Hawk Down, American Sniper and Hacksaw Ridge.....

    The greatest 3 American War films I have ever seen have all been made by Stanley Kubrick- one about the first world war, one about Vietnam and one about WW3.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Here's a hypothetical to chew over. Say the Tories do fall short, maybe around 310, and Labour pick up 240 odd seats and combine with the SNP and the Limp Dims to make form an anti Brexit majority. Would it be possibly conceivable to elevate a leader of a party to the position of PM when their party has 60 or 70 seats fewer than another?

    I genuinely do not know how the law stands with this, if there even is one. Gawd, what a fucking mess it would be.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour hit 33% during the 1983 election campaign, on 25th May with MORI / Sunday Times. They ended up getting 28%.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1983_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • Its part of the selection process. If you don't say anything anti-semitic you don't get on the shortlist
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,489
    Pidcock has some qualities, but is also a raging Trot. Are there enough votes in the PLP to get another hard leftie on the ballot?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2019
    Jason said:

    Here's a hypothetical to chew over. Say the Tories do fall short, maybe around 310, and Labour pick up 240 odd seats and combine with the SNP and the Limp Dims to make form an anti Brexit majority. Would it be possibly conceivable to elevate a leader of a party to the position of PM when their party has 60 or 70 seats fewer than another?

    I genuinely do not know how the law stands with this, if there even is one. Gawd, what a fucking mess it would be.

    Yes, anyone can be PM if the other MPs agree to it. Even someone who isn't in the House of Commons or Lords.

    Not quite the same thing, but in 1964 Harold Wilson appointed Patrick Gordon Walker as Foreign Secretary even though he'd just lost his seat in Smethwick.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_Gordon_Walker
  • Jason said:

    Here's a hypothetical to chew over. Say the Tories do fall short, maybe around 310, and Labour pick up 240 odd seats and combine with the SNP and the Limp Dims to make form an anti Brexit majority. Would it be possibly conceivable to elevate a leader of a party to the position of PM when their party has 60 or 70 seats fewer than another?

    I genuinely do not know how the law stands with this, if there even is one. Gawd, what a fucking mess it would be.

    Lloyd George says hello!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,119
    edited November 2019

    MoS poll is bad news for Tories. They don't want their voters to think it is all going to be ok and not bother applying for those postal votes now.

    No problem for us two

    And it will be the first time we have voted for Boris !!!!!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    tyson said:

    I've just had a look at the quote and comments....what are all these Jezziah's going to do when they find that they are shellaxed, and looking at the worst Labour seat tally since the 1930's.....
    While I don't think that is going to happen, I imagine there will be a great outcry about legitimacy of Boris winning from sudden converts to PR and that, in spirit, Labour did much better.
  • Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 39% (+3)
    LAB: 26% (+1)
    LDM: 17% (=)
    BXP: 10% (-1)

    Via @YouGov, 7-8 Nov.
    Changes w/ 5-6 Nov.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156

    Pidcock has some qualities, but is also a raging Trot. Are there enough votes in the PLP to get another hard leftie on the ballot?

    This time? Yes. The others have been beaten down, or are actually happy with Corbyn and co, and the same reason applies now with even more reasoning - the base would go nuts if there was not a hard lefty. Same reason we saw Boris outriders whinging that the rules should be changed to have 4 put to the membership when they feared he might not make the final 2, and why some called for a coronation once they saw he would win, despite previously insisting there needed to be a vote.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 39% (+3)
    LAB: 26% (+1)
    LDM: 17% (=)
    BXP: 10% (-1)

    Via @YouGov, 7-8 Nov.
    Changes w/ 5-6 Nov.

    I much prefer this poll. :)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    3 QE2 Jubilee medals
    2 Brunei jubilee medals
    Canadian Forces Decoration
    NZ Commemoration Medal

    Medals aren’t just awarded for gallantry
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300

    ydoethur said:

    Prince Philip once met a Brazilian general in Rio on a state visit. He expressed curiosity about the large number of medals said general was wearing, and got the answer, 'I won them in the war.'

    'I didn't know Brazil was in the war that long,' joked Philip.

    'Well, at least I didn't get them for marrying my wife,' snapped the General.
    Bit harsh on Phil, some of his medals are for almost-getting-killed-by-the-enemy stuff. Tbf Edward may have run some almost-getting-killed-by-your-own-side risks.
    Was looking for mention of Prince Philip's career on HMS Valiant, but found this reference to his service in HMS Wallace.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2003/dec/28/monarchy.davidsmith
  • Jason said:

    Here's a hypothetical to chew over. Say the Tories do fall short, maybe around 310, and Labour pick up 240 odd seats and combine with the SNP and the Limp Dims to make form an anti Brexit majority. Would it be possibly conceivable to elevate a leader of a party to the position of PM when their party has 60 or 70 seats fewer than another?

    I genuinely do not know how the law stands with this, if there even is one. Gawd, what a fucking mess it would be.

    The PM is whoever can command a majority in the House of Commons. The Queen would normally invite the leader of the largest party to first have a go.

    Under your scenario Johnson would get first go and would probably spend a few days trying to cobble something together. SNP could be bought possibly?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Jason said:

    Here's a hypothetical to chew over. Say the Tories do fall short, maybe around 310, and Labour pick up 240 odd seats and combine with the SNP and the Limp Dims to make form an anti Brexit majority. Would it be possibly conceivable to elevate a leader of a party to the position of PM when their party has 60 or 70 seats fewer than another?

    I genuinely do not know how the law stands with this, if there even is one. Gawd, what a fucking mess it would be.

    All a PM has to do is secure the confidence of the Commons. If enough parties were willing to rally around Caroline Lucas they could put her into bat.

    Though this, of course, is playing with pure hypotheticals. If the other parties won't back the Tories under such circumstances then they must install Corbyn. The man won't step aside and not would his supporters tolerate the suggestion.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    Charles said:

    3 QE2 Jubilee medals
    2 Brunei jubilee medals
    Canadian Forces Decoration
    NZ Commemoration Medal

    Medals aren’t just awarded for gallantry
    That's certainly true, but its still amusing since the general population, I suspect, still associate medals with gallantry.
  • kle4 said:

    tyson said:

    I've just had a look at the quote and comments....what are all these Jezziah's going to do when they find that they are shellaxed, and looking at the worst Labour seat tally since the 1930's.....
    While I don't think that is going to happen, I imagine there will be a great outcry about legitimacy of Boris winning from sudden converts to PR and that, in spirit, Labour did much better.
    And like the first cuckoo in Spring, it will be time for Poly Toynbee's annual reminder to the Labour Party that PR is a good idea.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 39% (+3)
    LAB: 26% (+1)
    LDM: 17% (=)
    BXP: 10% (-1)

    Via @YouGov, 7-8 Nov.
    Changes w/ 5-6 Nov.

    Interesting how YouGov continues to put both main parties lower, and both the LDs and the Brexit Party higher.
This discussion has been closed.