I see on the BBC website there is talk about the UK enduring another credi rating downgrade due to spending pledges / commitments advocated by Torie/ Labour. I still find it odd that the Tories have chucked fiscal disciplie as they have done after so many years...
It's desperation. They don't have the trust or goodwill left to combat opposition splurges without making splurges of their own.
Have also had some friends and colleagues selected for seats in the last few days, Gagan Mohindra has been selected to succeed David Gauke in Hertfordshire SW and is someone I have known for a while as an Epping Forest and Essex cllr and hardworking campaigner. Shaun Bailey is an Aberstwyrth contempory of mine and has been selected as Tory candidate for West Bromwich West, Holly Whitbread is another Epping Forest cllr and activist who has got Hull North and fellow Epping Forest cllr Gavin Chambers will fight Islywyn.
An old Warwick contemporary of mine Simon Eardley made the final 3 for Eddisbury but Edward Timpson got it in the end
Islwyn is a seat where the Labour vote might drop like a stone, although a lot of it could go to the Brexit Party rather than the Tories.
After due consideration, sleeping on it, chewing it over and throwing it at the wall to see if it sticks, I've come to the conclusion that a lot of gamekeepers are c***s.
Mr. Taxman, it's utterly daft. Started with May deciding to ignore the economy and her own party's strength there, and the current idiot splashes cash around like a damned fool.
Gee it would almost be as if there were a forthcoming election . . .
The previous idiot through away the majority. The current leader is trying to get it back. These commitments can be honoured but then with control restored elsewhere keep the budget on the right track - if the opposition wins that's not going to happen.
Mr. kle4, Boris Johnson began splurging cash almost immediately. It's a choice he made, as May chose to not bother ever mentioning the deficit.
Mr. Thompson, hope Leicester win. If they do, I'll hedge my bet on them a bit more (to be winner without Liverpool/Manchester City).
I didn't say the desperation was a recent thing - for several years the Tories have worried that they cannot win by seeming reticent with splurging cash, and that has merely accelerated in recent months.
Have also had some friends and colleagues selected for seats in the last few days, Gagan Mohindra has been selected to succeed David Gauke in Hertfordshire SW and is someone I have known for a while as an Epping Forest and Essex cllr and hardworking campaigner. Shaun Bailey is an Aberstwyrth contempory of mine and has been selected as Tory candidate for West Bromwich West, Holly Whitbread is another Epping Forest cllr and activist who has got Hull North and fellow Epping Forest cllr Gavin Chambers will fight Islywyn.
An old Warwick contemporary of mine Simon Eardley made the final 3 for Eddisbury but Edward Timpson got it in the end
Hold on. Shaun Bailey as in the Mayoral candidate who will presumably be replaced in that capacity if elected to parliament? That might be important for betting purposes later on.
Have also had some friends and colleagues selected for seats in the last few days, Gagan Mohindra has been selected to succeed David Gauke in Hertfordshire SW and is someone I have known for a while as an Epping Forest and Essex cllr and hardworking campaigner. Shaun Bailey is an Aberstwyrth contempory of mine and has been selected as Tory candidate for West Bromwich West, Holly Whitbread is another Epping Forest cllr and activist who has got Hull North and fellow Epping Forest cllr Gavin Chambers will fight Islywyn.
An old Warwick contemporary of mine Simon Eardley made the final 3 for Eddisbury but Edward Timpson got it in the end
Islwyn is a seat where the Labour vote might drop like a stone, although a lot of it could go to the Brexit Party rather than the Tories.
It is 193rd on the Tory target list and of course Neil Kinnock's old seat
It's not really a Brexit policy is it? A choice between Brexit in name only, or actually staying in. So two non-Brexit options, really.
It's a policy for people who think a hard Brexit would be so awful that it can't responsibly be offered as an option, but who aren't comfortable with simply cancelling the whole thing. I think that's pretty sensible.
There used to be lots of people (e.g. Richard Tyndall, I think?) who said they'd be happy to stay in close trading relations and common rules so long as we could withdraw from the political side. I'm not sure in today's polarised climate how big a segment that now is.
Have also had some friends and colleagues selected for seats in the last few days, Gagan Mohindra has been selected to succeed David Gauke in Hertfordshire SW and is someone I have known for a while as an Epping Forest and Essex cllr and hardworking campaigner. Shaun Bailey is an Aberstwyrth contempory of mine and has been selected as Tory candidate for West Bromwich West, Holly Whitbread is another Epping Forest cllr and activist who has got Hull North and fellow Epping Forest cllr Gavin Chambers will fight Islywyn.
An old Warwick contemporary of mine Simon Eardley made the final 3 for Eddisbury but Edward Timpson got it in the end
Hold on. Shaun Bailey as in the Mayoral candidate who will presumably be replaced in that capacity if elected to parliament? That might be important for betting purposes later on.
No, this is another Shaun Bailey based in Newport in Shropshire
After due consideration, sleeping on it, chewing it over and throwing it at the wall to see if it sticks, I've come to the conclusion that a lot of gamekeepers are c***s.
On thread- OGH is right- this election in only heading in one direction- and a comfortable Tory majority....
Which is exactly what they said at exactly this time two years ago.
In fact, Labour's position viz a viz the tories is better this time around.
The St Jeremy fairy hunters are hoping to regain the miracle....rinse and repeat....
My very limited exposure on the Norwich doorstep gives me the same feeling as 2010...but multiplied by 10....a slick Tory machine with it's simple message is going to shellax a very poor Labour Party...
The Labour Party will not get anywhere close to 200 seats....
Yeah yeah, we had all of this sort of comment too. Only far worse. I think there are still jitters amongst tories. Maybe they know their support is soft.
In some ways my ideal result is a 1992. A really narrow Johnson outright win. Just enough to see him govern over total chaos for up to 5 yrs followed by a thumping Labour landslide under a moderate Labour leader.
Assuming it really is a moderate then I could live with that too.
Is anybody keeping a tally of how many Parliamentary candidates have had to quit, and why? The numbers must be getting quite substantial.
Anecdote. Visiting a family member in a Women's Gynae ward this PM, the selection of reading matter (ignoring the lilac sofas in the quiet room and the broad stereotypes) was for older women - Good Housekeeping, for younger women - Closer, and a copy of the Sun with a Love Island (?) contestant in her smalls.
Nurses found it hilarious. Nottinghamshire Nurses are Not Normally Snowflakes :-) .
The Super Soaraway Sun had a page about Lab Candidates on the skids entitled "Corbyn's Dirty Dozen", which had some of the ones we have discussed here.
There are still some more to come out eg the one (forgotten name) who wrote to a newspaper in support of Livingstone when he made his concentration camp guard remarks. Second on the list in Tom Watson's Constituency if the current one is defenestrated?
And the current Kensington MP still has the racist article about Shaun Bailey the Tory London Mayor candidate on her blog ("token ghetto boy"), and the 'lynch black Tories from an oak tree' cartoon on her blog, but she is forecast to lose the seat anyway. http://emmadentcoad.blogspot.com/2010/04/this-is-my-posh-voice-local-boy-done.html
Sure there are some others too, and from several parties.
Anecdata from an afternoon canvassing in 3-way marginal Portsmouth South (Southsea ward, LinDem-held). High winds and steady rain made it tiresome, but there were 8 Labour canvassers from the bustling Labour office (yesterday apparently 16), tackling the hard-to-enter mansion blocks along the front - once someone let you in, you had a dry 20 minutes, wahey! Those who expressed an opinion were all Labour or Tory (about 2-1) but lots of don't knows, some obviously genuine, some I assume privately against. I saw only one poster, a LibDem.
Nobody mentioned Brexit explicitly and insofar as people raised anything it was the economy and general "confusion at all the goings on". We experimentally raised Brexit ourselves ("we will give people another chance to decide") a few times without any particular reaction. The big plus point for Labour was the MP, Stephen Morgan - everyone seemed to know him and respect him for hard work, and some planned to vote for him simply in the perceived absence of compelling reasons to vote in any direction otherwise. Some voters disliked Johnson, Corbyn and Swinson with apparently equal passion.
All the evidence (Survation poll, local council election in May) suggests a very close race. The LibDems were leafleting widely, apparently more than canvassing, while the Tories were pursuing a core vote strategy, with very intensive canvassing of their core wards and not much elsewhere. I saw the small LibDem Southsea office, which looked considerably quieter than the Labour one.
Hard to call on a few hours' experience, but if I had to guess, I'd think first term incumbency and activist enthusiasm will see Morgan home.
Slightly weird nobody mentioned Brexit. Must be some sort of 2019 record.
One of the under-discussed areas of 'green' stuff is stewardship of the natural world. Reintroducing species like red kites and various eagles can work well, but not if endangered species get killed for no good reason.
[The flipside is whether or not species like badgers and deer need either a hunting season or predators introducing, but that's another matter].
Funded nursery care for 4 and 5 year olds does not solve the problem. Funding from 9 months, when maternity pay ends, at a level that reflects the true cost, is a welcome development. It would be a real benefit to those mothers that want to work. 35 hours a week and the real cost of providing care is spot on
Mr. Taxman, it's utterly daft. Started with May deciding to ignore the economy and her own party's strength there, and the current idiot splashes cash around like a damned fool.
Only a populist campaign will beat Corbyn, brutal but true.
Another 'No more magic money tree' and unpopular tax rises campaign and it could be a minority Corbyn government. Hence Boris is going on tax cuts and more money for public services as well as getting Brexit done
Is anybody keeping a tally of how many Parliamentary candidates have had to quit, and why? The numbers must be getting quite substantial.
And the current Kensington MP still has the racist article about Shaun Bailey the Tory London Mayor candidate on her blog ("token ghetto boy"), and the 'lynch black Tories from an oak tree' cartoon on her blog, but she is forecast to lose the seat anyway. http://emmadentcoad.blogspot.com/2010/04/this-is-my-posh-voice-local-boy-done.html
Should have added that that is a deliberately uncharitable interpretation of the cartoon - think she was trying to be satirical, but Dent-Coad has plenty of other stuff that could be gone at.
After due consideration, sleeping on it, chewing it over and throwing it at the wall to see if it sticks, I've come to the conclusion that a lot of gamekeepers are c***s.
The industrial slaughter of wildlife by gamekeepers to support shooting is fucking disgusting......
Anyone anyhow who likes shooting animals for fun is a dick
I would expect the shooting of animals for sport to go the way of fox hunting within our lifetimes, but exactly how long it'll take is open to question.
If that happened, and I think it's an unlikely but amusing possibility, who do you think would be the next Conservative leader? Priti Patel?
The more I see of her the more I think she is a libertarian not the authoritarian she is stereotyped as and that she could be a good PM.
PB's "John McEnroe Moment"
I can be serious.
People seem to heavily claim she is authoritarian because many years ago she suggested she could be in favour of the death penalty for child killers and police killers. Something I think many people can sympathise with. But on reflection she has long now said she doesn't support the death penalty because of the risk of executing the innocent.
I 100% agree with her on that. If there was a way to guarantee only those guilty of cop or child killing were to get the death penalty then I could sympathise with that, but it isn't possible, and form of death penalty risks executing the innocent which is unacceptable. So I will never back the death penalty because of that and nor does Patel quite rightly.
Take away that issue and look at what she is doing and she is a lot more libertarian than many of her predecessors in the post. She has taken multiple steps to liberalise migration.
It’s remarkable just how stupid many of these candidates are .
If you ever plan to enter politics then think before you post on social media . You’d think they would have worked this out by now.
Although people should think before they post regardless of whether they plan to enter politics, it's probably a bit much to expect people to screen themselves however many years in advance on the off chance they do decide to do so. I think it's more the parties should be much much more focused on finding out this stuff at early stages, and deciding if its a battle they are prepared to have and for what reason - long time ago, views have changed, very apologetic, whatever - so they don't go about in a panic when opponents find them.
I often wonder whether the next generation of social media users will be a little more competent with it, and understanding what comments are suitable for which audiences. Certainly this generation seems less ept with it than we might hope.
Mr. Taxman, it's utterly daft. Started with May deciding to ignore the economy and her own party's strength there, and the current idiot splashes cash around like a damned fool.
Only a populist campaign will beat Corbyn, brutal but true.
Another 'No more magic money tree' and unpopular tax rises campaign and it could be a minority Corbyn government. Hence Boris is going on tax cuts and more money for public services as well as getting Brexit done
I agree with this the public can not do 10+ years of austerity, they need some goodies. Have not seen the manifesto yet but I|think Javid when speaking was sensible. Only borrow to invest yet day to day spending must be paid for by receipts. Whereas the IFS chap said the Labour can not spend the money they propose sensibly because it is just too much, so wage rises and benefits increases and wastage all on the never/never.
One of the under-discussed areas of 'green' stuff is stewardship of the natural world. Reintroducing species like red kites and various eagles can work well, but not if endangered species get killed for no good reason.
[The flipside is whether or not species like badgers and deer need either a hunting season or predators introducing, but that's another matter].
I remember hearing a massive commotion behind my office. I looked out, and there were pigeons going berserk. The reason was that a kestrel had suddenly appeared, and was choosing which one to devour. Some London councils release birds of prey to kill pigeons.
To be fair, is there any point in mentioning Brexit to a Labour Party canvasser? It's not like Labour has a Brexit policy.
Lol! But they didn't seem interested when we raised it either.
As I keep saying, Brexit bores everyone. No one is interested in it any longer. They wish it would go away, which is about the best hope the tories have.
The swing appears to be mainly from Cs to PP and Vox.
How well I remember that period when we were told Cs were a cuddly bunch of centrist liberals rather than a home for crypto Falangists and Spanish nationalists.
After due consideration, sleeping on it, chewing it over and throwing it at the wall to see if it sticks, I've come to the conclusion that a lot of gamekeepers are c***s.
The industrial slaughter of wildlife by gamekeepers to support shooting is fucking disgusting......
Anyone anyhow who likes shooting animals for fun is a dick
I would expect the shooting of animals for sport to go the way of fox hunting within our lifetimes, but exactly how long it'll take is open to question.
Personally, it can't come soon enough.
Eating game is becoming more popular, as people become less keen on intensive farming. My local farm shop stocks excellent pheasant an venison, depending on the season.
The swing appears to be mainly from Cs to PP and Vox.
How well I remember that period when we were told Cs were a cuddly bunch of centrist liberals rather than a home for crypto Falangists and Spanish nationalists.
As an only casual observer it has still been noticable that they were definitely described as centrists previously, but of the right now.
It’s remarkable just how stupid many of these candidates are .
If you ever plan to enter politics then think before you post on social media . You’d think they would have worked this out by now.
Although people should think before they post regardless of whether they plan to enter politics, it's probably a bit much to expect people to screen themselves however many years in advance on the off chance they do decide to do so. I think it's more the parties should be much much more focused on finding out this stuff at early stages, and deciding if its a battle they are prepared to have and for what reason - long time ago, views have changed, very apologetic, whatever - so they don't go about in a panic when opponents find them.
I often wonder whether the next generation of social media users will be a little more competent with it, and understanding what comments are suitable for which audiences. Certainly this generation seems less ept with it than we might hope.
They are. Go to an office party or a family party. It is usually the pre-home computer generation who are taking selfies / videos of their drunk colleagues/friends that are shared on public social media websites. Or who treat Facebook as a diary. The 20-40s are trying to stay out of the videos and use Facebook under fake names so they cannot be researched by interview panels. The under-20s are not on Facebook at all, preferring sites where the posts are ephemeral or only available to actual friends. But Facebook became the biggest of them all by convincing tech-unsavvy older people to join up.
PhiIip_Thompson said: "100% agree with her on that. If there was a way to guarantee only those guilty of cop or child killing were to get the death penalty then I could sympathise with that, but it isn't possible, and form of death penalty risks executing the innocent which is unacceptable. So I will never back the death penalty because of that and nor does Patel quite rightly."
I can see where you are coming from but 1) why is it worse to kill a cop ahead of any other adult? and 2) it would require some state-sanctioned person to press the button, inject the needle - whatever - and this is problematic to me.
I, only half jokingly, think that lifers should be able to choose to end their own lives in prison with a Dignitas-like arrangement.
The [Calvert's] candidacy was placed under review last week when talkRADIO found he had made allegedly racist and sexist remarks. A party source said the poverty comments sealed his fate, as he could no longer guarantee that “nothing else embarrassing” would be revealed.
The swing appears to be mainly from Cs to PP and Vox.
How well I remember that period when we were told Cs were a cuddly bunch of centrist liberals rather than a home for crypto Falangists and Spanish nationalists.
Only a populist campaign will beat Corbyn, brutal but true.
Another 'No more magic money tree' and unpopular tax rises campaign and it could be a minority Corbyn government. Hence Boris is going on tax cuts and more money for public services as well as getting Brexit done
Indeed. Boris is going on a "mass hoodwink" campaign in order to win. But rather a trite comment from you if I may say so.
I mean, why else would he do it? He doesn't enjoy lying presumably?
Fysics_Teacher said: "I think in political betting it’s always best to bet on what you don’t want to happen."
Mike said: "disagree. You bet on what you think there's a chance of happening at good odds"
Mike`s right of course - but I do tend to bet on the football team that I don`t want to win - so when I`m disapponted that my team loses I am at least compensated financially.
Miller is going to publish both her site’s methodology and data, to ensure as much transparency as possible. Her site’s research suggests that the Tories are currently on course to win a majority, with 347 seats. However, it says that, with a tactical voting drive, a narrow majority for a coalition of Labour, Lib Dems and the SNP could deliver a second referendum. Her model – which uses polling that is then combined with demographic data and past voting to come up with recommendations – suggests tactical voting could reduce the Tories to 309 seats, with Labour on 233 and the Lib Dems on 33 seats.
Labour has cut the Conservatives’ poll lead after a week dominated by gaffes, controversies and resignations from the two main parties, according to the latest survey by Opinium for the Observer.
The Tories still hold a 12-point advantage over Labour but their lead is down four points since last weekend. The Conservatives now stand on 41%, down one point on a week ago, while Labour is up three on 29%.
PhiIip_Thompson said: "100% agree with her on that. If there was a way to guarantee only those guilty of cop or child killing were to get the death penalty then I could sympathise with that, but it isn't possible, and form of death penalty risks executing the innocent which is unacceptable. So I will never back the death penalty because of that and nor does Patel quite rightly."
I can see where you are coming from but 1) why is it worse to kill a cop ahead of any other adult? and 2) it would require some state-sanctioned person to press the button, inject the needle - whatever - and this is problematic to me.
I, only half jokingly, think that lifers should be able to choose to end their own lives in prison with a Dignitas-like arrangement.
Capital punishment doesn't bother me in principle (it seems a tad hypocritical to me to agonise over executing convicted murderers, while incinerating innocent people in war). It just seems more trouble than it's worth, given the endless appeals, and the fact that's it's pretty ritualistic. You end up maybe executing 2% of the people who are actually convicted of murder each year, and it becomes a bit of a lottery.
After due consideration, sleeping on it, chewing it over and throwing it at the wall to see if it sticks, I've come to the conclusion that a lot of gamekeepers are c***s.
The industrial slaughter of wildlife by gamekeepers to support shooting is fucking disgusting......
Anyone anyhow who likes shooting animals for fun is a dick
I would expect the shooting of animals for sport to go the way of fox hunting within our lifetimes, but exactly how long it'll take is open to question.
Personally, it can't come soon enough.
Eating game is becoming more popular, as people become less keen on intensive farming. My local farm shop stocks excellent pheasant an venison, depending on the season.
Shooting any living thing for sport could easily disappear, but shooting things for food will last a lot longer. I suspect the life of a pheasant is an improvement on the life of a chicken. We are evolved to be meat (but mostly not dairy) eaters.
On topic with these polls, I find it interesting that Labour have been so focused on tactical voting and attacking the Lib Dems - see their Facebook messaging - so early on. They seem to be relying an awful lot on remainers holding their nose and returning like in 2017 and people changing their views of Corbyn - or at least looking at him next to Boris and seeing something they're more amenable to.
That seems a big risk as people aren't, in large numbers at least, particularly sophisticated tactical voters - not least because as the fights over it has shown, you need five Nate Silvers to build a model that people can even begin to agree upon. In 2017 with the Lib Dems being declared almost dead it was obvious you had to lend your vote for Labour even if you didn't much like Corbyn to stop Theresa May. Now? Less so given we're likely to see some bizarre results - and especially as distaste towards him has hardened. Secondly, there's a risk something similar (but not quite as drastic) happens as to in the Euros, where some of those voters who some posters thought would go Labour believe it's screwed anyway and use their vote to kick them or just don't bother.
A key indicator I think will be Corbyn's leadership ratings, if he can improve them like he did in 2017 and actually build some enthusiasm outside the usual rallies and Momentumers, then there's a chance other things start falling into place. Angry voters on both sides rejoin the fold, it becomes more acceptable and obvious to tactically vote for Labour even as a sceptic, and the headline voting intention polls lag a bit behind as they did until fairly late in 2017. In this respect Watson's resignation maybe significant as it's kind of the death knell of the "you're voting for Labour not Corbyn" tendency among moderates, who now, especially with the departure of other notables can't really say that as convincingly. I mean, in 2017, even John Woodcock was arguing "yes vote Labour, we're probably fucked and not going to make Jez PM". So if Corbyn is still as popular as vomiting up a lung, it's much more important than it was.
Stay somewhere like he is now (worse than -40), and the pendulum swings the other way, and the tactical voters stay home, vote Tory as regard Corbyn as a fate worse than Brexit, or go with the Lib Dems in places they have a presence as both a protest and a Hail Mary Pass at some kind of better outcome. Then we get a result that looks like that polling or even worse.
Opinium’s latest data suggests Labour may be stemming the flow of both Labour Leavers to the Tories and Remainers to the Lib Dems.
Some 66% of Labour Leavers now plan to vote for Jeremy Corbyn’s party on 12 December, up nine points compared with a week ago.
Similarly, 48% of Labour Remainers are planning to vote for the party, sharply up on last week......
....Adam Drummond, head of political polling at Opinium, said: “There are some signs that a 2017-style squeeze is taking shape with some Labour voters coming home and a relative lack of Brexit news looks like it’s helping Labour Leavers return to the fold.
“The Brexit party has continued to decline and partisan feelings are starting to assert themselves in views of Nigel Farage, whose approval rating among Leave voters has dropped since he started attacking the Tories.”
Mighty low BXP, hopeful for the Tories despite Lab rising.
If only Corbyn didn't see Lab drop so low prior to elections it might be interesting to see what he could do with a campaign that wasn't starting needing a miracle.
PhiIip_Thompson said: "100% agree with her on that. If there was a way to guarantee only those guilty of cop or child killing were to get the death penalty then I could sympathise with that, but it isn't possible, and form of death penalty risks executing the innocent which is unacceptable. So I will never back the death penalty because of that and nor does Patel quite rightly."
I can see where you are coming from but 1) why is it worse to kill a cop ahead of any other adult? and 2) it would require some state-sanctioned person to press the button, inject the needle - whatever - and this is problematic to me.
I, only half jokingly, think that lifers should be able to choose to end their own lives in prison with a Dignitas-like arrangement.
It is worse to kill cops - and witness, jurors, judges and prison officers - because they're a part of the law and order system. If you're facing a long prison sentence either way due to a crime and the judicial system says if you kill the cops trying to arrest you in order to get away that won't affect your sentence then that is a perverse system.
But yes there are issues with the death penalty that can't be resolved.
Opinium’s latest data suggests Labour may be stemming the flow of both Labour Leavers to the Tories and Remainers to the Lib Dems.
Some 66% of Labour Leavers now plan to vote for Jeremy Corbyn’s party on 12 December, up nine points compared with a week ago.
Similarly, 48% of Labour Remainers are planning to vote for the party, sharply up on last week......
....Adam Drummond, head of political polling at Opinium, said: “There are some signs that a 2017-style squeeze is taking shape with some Labour voters coming home and a relative lack of Brexit news looks like it’s helping Labour Leavers return to the fold.
“The Brexit party has continued to decline and partisan feelings are starting to assert themselves in views of Nigel Farage, whose approval rating among Leave voters has dropped since he started attacking the Tories.”
The swing appears to be mainly from Cs to PP and Vox.
How well I remember that period when we were told Cs were a cuddly bunch of centrist liberals rather than a home for crypto Falangists and Spanish nationalists.
Yes the Spanish nationalist parties are up but the Catalan nationalists will likely hold the balance of power ironically
These numbers, at least the C/Lab ones, remind me of the 2010 campaign. Does anyone remember the final score then?
The Tories started and finished the campaign about 7-8% ahead of Labour. 41/29 will deliver the majority that 37/30 did not.
You know as well as the rest of us that at this stage in 2017, the tories were between 15% and 24% ahead of Labour. They never started only 7-8% ahead.
Edit. Ooops I see you were casting back to 2010. My apologies.
On thread- OGH is right- this election in only heading in one direction- and a comfortable Tory majority....
Which is exactly what they said at exactly this time two years ago.
In fact, Labour's position viz a viz the tories is better this time around.
This time two years ago the Tories had a cardboard cutout in charge. This time they have a showman.
Two years ago, we did not appreciate how institutionally racist the Labour Party would turn out to be
I agree with Mike. The Tories will win this, probably with a smallish majority, but a majority nonetheless. The LibDems will come second too often and reduce the Labour vote so Boris and the Tories will benefit from that.
The real question is, will even a majority solve the problem? If the people being elected this time are still unwilling to follow party policy, we may be back in the same place. Normally I'm in favour of independent-minded MPs, but I've no desire to see this drawn out any longer than is necessary.
The swing appears to be mainly from Cs to PP and Vox.
How well I remember that period when we were told Cs were a cuddly bunch of centrist liberals rather than a home for crypto Falangists and Spanish nationalists.
As an only casual observer it has still been noticable that they were definitely described as centrists previously, but of the right now.
Despite the fact that their right-leaning supporters no longer support them.
These numbers, at least the C/Lab ones, remind me of the 2010 campaign. Does anyone remember the final score then?
The Tories started and finished the campaign about 7-8% ahead of Labour. 41/29 will deliver the majority that 37/30 did not.
You know as well as the rest of us that at this stage in 2017, the tories were between 15% and 24% ahead of Labour. They never started only 7-8% ahead. Sorry to call you out on this one but please leave the downright lying to Boris Johnson rather than pb.com
On thread- OGH is right- this election in only heading in one direction- and a comfortable Tory majority....
Which is exactly what they said at exactly this time two years ago.
In fact, Labour's position viz a viz the tories is better this time around.
This time two years ago the Tories had a cardboard cutout in charge. This time they have a showman.
Two years ago, we did not appreciate how institutionally racist the Labour Party would turn out to be
I agree with Mike. The Tories will win this, probably with a smallish majority, but a majority nonetheless. The LibDems will come second too often and reduce the Labour vote so Boris and the Tories will benefit from that.
The real question is, will even a majority solve the problem? If the people being elected this time are still unwilling to follow party policy, we may be back in the same place. Normally I'm in favour of independent-minded MPs, but I've no desire to see this drawn out any longer than is necessary.
I think there will be far fewer independent minded MPs this time, at least insofar as making a decision on either settlign the first phase of Brexit, or agreeing a referendum. Last time dozens drfited away more and more over years, and it became easier and easier to try to shunt the decision to another parliament, but this parliament its a bit more clear what will definitely be expected at least first up.
As the right wing press are telling Farage to stand down I still think the BP standing and properly campaigning will hurt Labour more .
Agreed.
So far the BP seem to be in a no mans land of seeing what Farage is going to do . The media seem to have ignored what happened in 2017 , the UKIP vote collapsed and stopped the Tories winning a majority . In 2015 they were strong and Labour suffered . Some Labour Leavers will never vote Tory but would support the BP.
On thread- OGH is right- this election in only heading in one direction- and a comfortable Tory majority....
Which is exactly what they said at exactly this time two years ago.
In fact, Labour's position viz a viz the tories is better this time around.
This time two years ago the Tories had a cardboard cutout in charge. This time they have a showman.
Two years ago, we did not appreciate how institutionally racist the Labour Party would turn out to be
I agree with Mike. The Tories will win this, probably with a smallish majority, but a majority nonetheless. The LibDems will come second too often and reduce the Labour vote so Boris and the Tories will benefit from that.
The real question is, will even a majority solve the problem? If the people being elected this time are still unwilling to follow party policy, we may be back in the same place. Normally I'm in favour of independent-minded MPs, but I've no desire to see this drawn out any longer than is necessary.
I think it would. The Tory Remain ultras have been purged, and all the rest of them will have been elected on a specific mandate to pass the WA. That at least gets us over that particular hurdle.
Mr. Taxman, it's utterly daft. Started with May deciding to ignore the economy and her own party's strength there, and the current idiot splashes cash around like a damned fool.
Only a populist campaign will beat Corbyn, brutal but true.
Another 'No more magic money tree' and unpopular tax rises campaign and it could be a minority Corbyn government. Hence Boris is going on tax cuts and more money for public services as well as getting Brexit done
I agree with this the public can not do 10+ years of austerity, they need some goodies. Have not seen the manifesto yet but I|think Javid when speaking was sensible. Only borrow to invest yet day to day spending must be paid for by receipts. Whereas the IFS chap said the Labour can not spend the money they propose sensibly because it is just too much, so wage rises and benefits increases and wastage all on the never/never.
Yes having done austerity at least the Tories look more credible easing off it
After due consideration, sleeping on it, chewing it over and throwing it at the wall to see if it sticks, I've come to the conclusion that a lot of gamekeepers are c***s.
The industrial slaughter of wildlife by gamekeepers to support shooting is fucking disgusting......
Anyone anyhow who likes shooting animals for fun is a dick
I would expect the shooting of animals for sport to go the way of fox hunting within our lifetimes, but exactly how long it'll take is open to question.
Personally, it can't come soon enough.
Eating game is becoming more popular, as people become less keen on intensive farming. My local farm shop stocks excellent pheasant an venison, depending on the season.
Shooting any living thing for sport could easily disappear, but shooting things for food will last a lot longer. I suspect the life of a pheasant is an improvement on the life of a chicken. We are evolved to be meat (but mostly not dairy) eaters.
Pheasants are bred in captivity and put out in the summer before they are shot, so not as much to choose between them and chicken as you'd think.
An interesting result in the Panelbase . It showed Labour now ahead of the Tories on the NHS by 7 points . Regardless of whether there’s any real concern regarding the NHS and a US trade deal the fear alone could help Labour.
HYUFD said: "Yes having done austerity at least the Tories look more credible easing off it"
Seems that "austerity" narrative has been picked up and run with. Austerity was an Osborne term, post credit crunch, and I`m sure I recall Hammond/May announcing the end of austerity years ago. Of course Labour has continued to batter the Tories with it, but I`m surprised that the Tories don`t defend this more vigorously.
I`d be interested in your perspective on this. Prudent doesn`t = austerity.
Having said that, IMO the spending pledges coming out from the Tories at the moment have a whiff of imprudency about them.
Comments
Mr. Thompson, hope Leicester win. If they do, I'll hedge my bet on them a bit more (to be winner without Liverpool/Manchester City).
https://twitter.com/wildpresent/status/1192714804869378049?s=20
The previous idiot through away the majority. The current leader is trying to get it back. These commitments can be honoured but then with control restored elsewhere keep the budget on the right track - if the opposition wins that's not going to happen.
MarquessMark: Yes, I would say so.
Thanks Mark - as you know, in 2017 CP won with 54% and with 53% in 2015
Lib Dems 13% 2017 and 10% 2015
UKIP 2.5% 2017 and 14% 2015
The Wollaston factor is obviously a consideration, but I`ll be amazed if she closes that sort of gap.
Accordingly, I had this as an easy Tory win - so was surprised when I saw that LibDems are narrow 5/6 favorites with Betfair Sportsbook, CP are Evens.
I`ve had a decent sized bet on Tories at evens.
There used to be lots of people (e.g. Richard Tyndall, I think?) who said they'd be happy to stay in close trading relations and common rules so long as we could withdraw from the political side. I'm not sure in today's polarised climate how big a segment that now is.
Anyone anyhow who likes shooting animals for fun is a dick
"Teenager charged with murder over stabbing at knife awareness course
Police say Hakim Sillah, 18, died in Uxbridge fight over which event 17-year-old boy will face court"
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/nov/08/london-teenager-stabbed-to-death-uxbridge-attending-knife-awareness-course
Nurses found it hilarious. Nottinghamshire Nurses are Not Normally Snowflakes :-) .
The Super Soaraway Sun had a page about Lab Candidates on the skids entitled "Corbyn's Dirty Dozen", which had some of the ones we have discussed here.
There are still some more to come out eg the one (forgotten name) who wrote to a newspaper in support of Livingstone when he made his concentration camp guard remarks. Second on the list in Tom Watson's Constituency if the current one is defenestrated?
And the current Kensington MP still has the racist article about Shaun Bailey the Tory London Mayor candidate on her blog ("token ghetto boy"), and the 'lynch black Tories from an oak tree' cartoon on her blog, but she is forecast to lose the seat anyway.
http://emmadentcoad.blogspot.com/2010/04/this-is-my-posh-voice-local-boy-done.html
Sure there are some others too, and from several parties.
One of the under-discussed areas of 'green' stuff is stewardship of the natural world. Reintroducing species like red kites and various eagles can work well, but not if endangered species get killed for no good reason.
[The flipside is whether or not species like badgers and deer need either a hunting season or predators introducing, but that's another matter].
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1193239353981579270?s=20
Another 'No more magic money tree' and unpopular tax rises campaign and it could be a minority Corbyn government. Hence Boris is going on tax cuts and more money for public services as well as getting Brexit done
Personally, it can't come soon enough.
People seem to heavily claim she is authoritarian because many years ago she suggested she could be in favour of the death penalty for child killers and police killers. Something I think many people can sympathise with. But on reflection she has long now said she doesn't support the death penalty because of the risk of executing the innocent.
I 100% agree with her on that. If there was a way to guarantee only those guilty of cop or child killing were to get the death penalty then I could sympathise with that, but it isn't possible, and form of death penalty risks executing the innocent which is unacceptable. So I will never back the death penalty because of that and nor does Patel quite rightly.
Take away that issue and look at what she is doing and she is a lot more libertarian than many of her predecessors in the post. She has taken multiple steps to liberalise migration.
More scum, we need more scum!
Nothing of interest or with a passing acquaintance to reality in it.
How well I remember that period when we were told Cs were a cuddly bunch of centrist liberals rather than a home for crypto Falangists and Spanish nationalists.
I can see where you are coming from but 1) why is it worse to kill a cop ahead of any other adult? and 2) it would require some state-sanctioned person to press the button, inject the needle - whatever - and this is problematic to me.
I, only half jokingly, think that lifers should be able to choose to end their own lives in prison with a Dignitas-like arrangement.
The [Calvert's] candidacy was placed under review last week when talkRADIO found he had made allegedly racist and sexist remarks. A party source said the poverty comments sealed his fate, as he could no longer guarantee that “nothing else embarrassing” would be revealed.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/tory-candidate-suspended-over-food-bank-comments-gn6wrlfsq
She just won the jackpot. 75-ish grand job with guaranteed security for life.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1193234540791320576
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1193242059932655619
I mean, why else would he do it? He doesn't enjoy lying presumably?
"I think in political betting it’s always best to bet on what you don’t want to happen."
Mike said: "disagree. You bet on what you think there's a chance of happening at good odds"
Mike`s right of course - but I do tend to bet on the football team that I don`t want to win - so when I`m disapponted that my team loses I am at least compensated financially.
Miller is going to publish both her site’s methodology and data, to ensure as much transparency as possible. Her site’s research suggests that the Tories are currently on course to win a majority, with 347 seats. However, it says that, with a tactical voting drive, a narrow majority for a coalition of Labour, Lib Dems and the SNP could deliver a second referendum. Her model – which uses polling that is then combined with demographic data and past voting to come up with recommendations – suggests tactical voting could reduce the Tories to 309 seats, with Labour on 233 and the Lib Dems on 33 seats.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/09/remain-united-tactical-voting-site-gina-miller
Labour has cut the Conservatives’ poll lead after a week dominated by gaffes, controversies and resignations from the two main parties, according to the latest survey by Opinium for the Observer.
The Tories still hold a 12-point advantage over Labour but their lead is down four points since last weekend. The Conservatives now stand on 41%, down one point on a week ago, while Labour is up three on 29%.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/09/remain-united-tactical-voting-site-gina-miller
Con 41 (-1)
Lab 29 (+3)
LD 15 (-1)
BXP 6 (-3)
That seems a big risk as people aren't, in large numbers at least, particularly sophisticated tactical voters - not least because as the fights over it has shown, you need five Nate Silvers to build a model that people can even begin to agree upon. In 2017 with the Lib Dems being declared almost dead it was obvious you had to lend your vote for Labour even if you didn't much like Corbyn to stop Theresa May. Now? Less so given we're likely to see some bizarre results - and especially as distaste towards him has hardened. Secondly, there's a risk something similar (but not quite as drastic) happens as to in the Euros, where some of those voters who some posters thought would go Labour believe it's screwed anyway and use their vote to kick them or just don't bother.
A key indicator I think will be Corbyn's leadership ratings, if he can improve them like he did in 2017 and actually build some enthusiasm outside the usual rallies and Momentumers, then there's a chance other things start falling into place. Angry voters on both sides rejoin the fold, it becomes more acceptable and obvious to tactically vote for Labour even as a sceptic, and the headline voting intention polls lag a bit behind as they did until fairly late in 2017. In this respect Watson's resignation maybe significant as it's kind of the death knell of the "you're voting for Labour not Corbyn" tendency among moderates, who now, especially with the departure of other notables can't really say that as convincingly. I mean, in 2017, even John Woodcock was arguing "yes vote Labour, we're probably fucked and not going to make Jez PM". So if Corbyn is still as popular as vomiting up a lung, it's much more important than it was.
Stay somewhere like he is now (worse than -40), and the pendulum swings the other way, and the tactical voters stay home, vote Tory as regard Corbyn as a fate worse than Brexit, or go with the Lib Dems in places they have a presence as both a protest and a Hail Mary Pass at some kind of better outcome. Then we get a result that looks like that polling or even worse.
Some 66% of Labour Leavers now plan to vote for Jeremy Corbyn’s party on 12 December, up nine points compared with a week ago.
Similarly, 48% of Labour Remainers are planning to vote for the party, sharply up on last week......
....Adam Drummond, head of political polling at Opinium, said: “There are some signs that a 2017-style squeeze is taking shape with some Labour voters coming home and a relative lack of Brexit news looks like it’s helping Labour Leavers return to the fold.
“The Brexit party has continued to decline and partisan feelings are starting to assert themselves in views of Nigel Farage, whose approval rating among Leave voters has dropped since he started attacking the Tories.”
Next weekend: about 32%.
The homeward match of the robo....errrr....tribally loyal voters continues...
If only Corbyn didn't see Lab drop so low prior to elections it might be interesting to see what he could do with a campaign that wasn't starting needing a miracle.
Only this time the tories have a major headache with the BXP
But yes there are issues with the death penalty that can't be resolved.
So Tories up on 2010, Labour unchanged (though down on 2017), LDs down (though up on 2017)
The Tories are polling in the 40s. That is at a high level in recent decades.
Edit. Ooops I see you were casting back to 2010. My apologies.
Longer term the choices will remain difficult.
Panelbase, 2 YGs and an ICM.
EDIT- late to the party, just seen Opinium!
https://twitter.com/jimrobbins/status/1193157576017494016?s=20
Seems that "austerity" narrative has been picked up and run with. Austerity was an Osborne term, post credit crunch, and I`m sure I recall Hammond/May announcing the end of austerity years ago. Of course Labour has continued to batter the Tories with it, but I`m surprised that the Tories don`t defend this more vigorously.
I`d be interested in your perspective on this. Prudent doesn`t = austerity.
Having said that, IMO the spending pledges coming out from the Tories at the moment have a whiff of imprudency about them.