politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB’s GE17 performance is misleading as a tactical voting guid
Comments
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The Labour Party didn't push regional assemblies, rather to appease Prescott they eventually (after 7 years) came up with a token offer to the North East that was designed to be rejected. Blair was against it and so the devolution offer was so limited as to be meaningless, and combined with a massive local government reorganisation that could not have been better designed to ensured that most local authorities campaigned against it. The only substantial change would have been to centralise many existing local government powers in the new regional assemblies, with central government devolving virtually nothing of any note.Cookie said:
Except that the Labour Party pushed that approach and there seemed very little appetite for it.Gardenwalker said:
An English Parliament is a great idea if you want to dissolve the Union. The weight of it would set up an mutually destructive dynamic between “UK” and “England”.Fishing said:
We need a full, devolved English Parliament. A federal UK is the only long-term solution - everything else creates more problems than it solves.Philip_Thompson said:
If the Conservatives get a strong majority in this election they should pass some very strong EVFEL changes. They should be rather uncontroversial at the minute but should protect England after future elections from the whims of other nations with their own devolved powers.
Regional Assemblies would do a better job of addressing our constitutional mess. Yorkshire should fund and manage the Yorkshire branch of the NHS...
There is a dissertation to be written on what the structure of sub-national government should be, taking into account factors such as efficiency, responsiveness, local support. In fact I once wrote one. Conclusion: there doesn't seem to be one obviously good answer...
That was then and this is now. In the ensuing 15 years we have witnessed the success of Scottish and Welsh devolution, at least in the appetite of the affected populations to want more of it and the silencing of initial sceptics in those nations. In today's climate, a genuine offer would I think get a very different reception in many regions of the UK.0 -
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The percentage of libertarian Brexiteers is not much more than 10% at most and not much higher in the Tory Party as a whole (indeed there is a separate UK Libertarian Party), in any case it is the Conservative Party in Government that will decide and its leader has made clear he will ban indyref2. Your opinion on that is irrelevantPhilip_Thompson said:
Yes I am a libertarian as are many Tories, we make up a considerable chunk of the party. You didn't say lowercase c conservative you said Brexit voters.HYUFD said:
You are not a Tory or even a conservative really but a libertarian like Tyndall.Philip_Thompson said:
Speaking as a Brexit voter that takes their side I'm calling out your comment as bollocks. I take their side and the side of Yes in Scotland. You can speak for yourself, not me and not every other of the 17.4 million Brexit voters.HYUFD said:
No they don't bar Richard Tyndall.williamglenn said:You do realise that a lot of Brexit voters take the side of the Catalan separatists?
The Brexit Party is neutral on Scottish independence perhaps, the Conservative and Unionist Party as Boris has made clear will follow the lead of its sister party the Popular Party in Spain and ban a new indyref. 2014 was supposed to be a referendum for a generation
Boris has made clear he will block indyref2 correctly and I am fully behind him0 -
The SNP were quite explicit the generation they were talking about was 1979-2014.HYUFD said:
No the next generation after 2014 would be about 2030 at the earliest.Alistair said:
On average there has been 1 independence referendum every 300 or so years.HYUFD said:
No they don't bar Richard Tyndall.williamglenn said:
You do realise that a lot of Brexit voters take the side of the Catalan separatists?HYUFD said:
Tories will ban indyref2 anyway so it is not an issue, they will deliver Brexit and ignore the SNPTheuniondivvie said:
Your second paragraph covers inconsistencies that tbf a few Brexiteers acknowledge, but many don't.148grss said:
Once again, I know think this will backfire. I don't know Sturgeon's +/- numbers amongst the English, but I assume they are higher than Corbyn's. If anything, this allows an argument for another party moderating Labour. Yes, they are Nats who want independence, but I do not see many English people caring about this right now, especially since all the language of independence is being used positively for Brexit.Theuniondivvie said:The Tory party, bereft of ideas, returns to its last zinger that had a dribble of traction. Nicola pinching a wallet full of fine English banknotes next?
https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/1192778822569070592?s=20
Anyone who makes an argument that Brexit is good actually, but Scottish independence would be silly, kinda open themselves up not just to practical arguments about the economic damage Brexit will cause, but the emotional arguments used to champion Brexit. If sovereignty is a moral good for the UK, why can't the same be held for Scotland? If making our laws in Westminster, not Brussels is a reasonable argument, why isn't making our laws in Holyrood not Westminster?
I'm not quite sure who this tweet is aimed at. Polling consistently shows a majority of Tories and Brexiteers indifferent to the Union, and dumping Scotland & NI as a price worth paying for 'getting Brexit done'.
The Brexit Party is neutral on Scottish independence perhaps, the Conservative and Unionist Party as Boris has made clear will follow the lead of its sister party the Popular Party in Spain and ban a new indyref. 2014 was supposed to be a referendum for a generation
If we have another next year its one every 150 years. Still much less than once in a generation.
Quebec waited 15 years for its 2nd independence referendum in 1995 after the first in 1980
We are now in the next generation and a referendum is entirely legitimate.0 -
Oh, well done, Cyclefree. Well done indeed.Cyclefree said:
Three things off the top of my head:-Roger said:
1. Saying that British Jews needed to be taught irony.
2. Inviting a convicted anti-semite - Raed Salah - to Parliament saying that his voice needed to be heard.
3. Travelling to meet President Assad with a group which specifically denies the Holocaust.
The first caused great dismay amongst Jews here - some anyway.
On 2 and 3, I do not see how it is defensible to say that the voice of anti-semites should be heard in our Parliament as a guest or to choose to travel with Holocaust deniers. At the very least you are giving them your imprimatur as an MP. It might - just about - be defensible if you condemned those views but there is no record of Corbyn having done so with regard to either of those.
Read Deborah Lipstadt's book "Denying the Holocaust" and Richard Evans on the Irving libel trial to understand why it is important not to given Holocaust deniers any space at all.
Now to be absolutely clear I don't know whether Corbyn is himself anti-semitic or whether he simply allows others to express their anti-semitism. But the latter is very poor in a leader, especially one who claims to be anti-racist. He can be rightly called out on that.
If he is the lifelong anti-racist that he claims, it is most odd that under his leadership this stench has grown and not been removed; that so many people have felt able to utter vile anti-Jewish comments and that his party is facing a formal investigation on this issue by the Equalities and Human Rights Commission. It is all very unfortunate and for someone who is so in control of his party and so loved / admired by the members it is, well, a bit odd that he has not been able to impose his will and ensure that anti-semitism is removed from his party. After all, he has said a number of times that they don't do it in his name. So why do they keep doing it? Do they know better than him? Do they look at his record over the years instead? Or do they simply ignore him - and apparently only on this issue? It is very curious. Perhaps the actions don't match the words. Perhaps the words are just for show. Who can say?
Or maybe we should apply Ockham's Rule instead?1 -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_true_ScotsmanHYUFD said:
You are not a Tory or even a conservative really but a libertarian like Tyndall.Philip_Thompson said:
Speaking as a Brexit voter that takes their side I'm calling out your comment as bollocks. I take their side and the side of Yes in Scotland. You can speak for yourself, not me and not every other of the 17.4 million Brexit voters.HYUFD said:
No they don't bar Richard Tyndall.williamglenn said:You do realise that a lot of Brexit voters take the side of the Catalan separatists?
The Brexit Party is neutral on Scottish independence perhaps, the Conservative and Unionist Party as Boris has made clear will follow the lead of its sister party the Popular Party in Spain and ban a new indyref. 2014 was supposed to be a referendum for a generation
Boris has made clear he will block indyref2 correctly and I am fully behind him0 -
"Not much more than 10%" is still nearly 2 million voters.HYUFD said:
The percentage of libertarian Brexiteers is not much more than 10% at most and not much higher in the Tory Party as a whole (indeed there is a separate UK Libertarian Party), in any case it is the Conservative Party in Government that will decide and its leader has made clear he will ban indyref2. Your opinion on that is irrelevantPhilip_Thompson said:
Yes I am a libertarian as are many Tories, we make up a considerable chunk of the party. You didn't say lowercase c conservative you said Brexit voters.HYUFD said:
You are not a Tory or even a conservative really but a libertarian like Tyndall.Philip_Thompson said:
Speaking as a Brexit voter that takes their side I'm calling out your comment as bollocks. I take their side and the side of Yes in Scotland. You can speak for yourself, not me and not every other of the 17.4 million Brexit voters.HYUFD said:
No they don't bar Richard Tyndall.williamglenn said:You do realise that a lot of Brexit voters take the side of the Catalan separatists?
The Brexit Party is neutral on Scottish independence perhaps, the Conservative and Unionist Party as Boris has made clear will follow the lead of its sister party the Popular Party in Spain and ban a new indyref. 2014 was supposed to be a referendum for a generation
Boris has made clear he will block indyref2 correctly and I am fully behind him0 -
But I keep hearing that federal is bad?Fishing said:
We need a full, devolved English Parliament. A federal UK is the only long-term solution - everything else creates more problems than it solves.Philip_Thompson said:
If the Conservatives get a strong majority in this election they should pass some very strong EVFEL changes. They should be rather uncontroversial at the minute but should protect England after future elections from the whims of other nations with their own devolved powers.0 -
Sorry this is not a fact.HYUFD said:
Indeed, Westminster could block indyref2 quite legally for ever and until the SNP get 55%+ of the vote in Scotland then agreed there is no clear demand for it anywayGardenwalker said:There is no legal or indeed moral obligation for the UK government to grant Scotland an independence referendum, even if the SNP were to achieve a clean sweep of Scottish seats.
The lesson of the last few years is that referendums should be validatory rather than interrogative. I don’t think a Sindy referendum is justified unless there is a persistent and clear majority support for independence. 60, 65%
UK Constitutional law is fuzzy in this regard.0 -
Not from me. Or the many successful federal countries in the world, starting with Germany, Switzerland, Canada, Australia and the United States.Recidivist said:
But I keep hearing that federal is bad?Fishing said:
We need a full, devolved English Parliament. A federal UK is the only long-term solution - everything else creates more problems than it solves.Philip_Thompson said:
If the Conservatives get a strong majority in this election they should pass some very strong EVFEL changes. They should be rather uncontroversial at the minute but should protect England after future elections from the whims of other nations with their own devolved powers.0 -
It is not, Parliament is sovereign end of conversation.Gallowgate said:
Sorry this is not a fact.HYUFD said:
Indeed, Westminster could block indyref2 quite legally for ever and until the SNP get 55%+ of the vote in Scotland then agreed there is no clear demand for it anywayGardenwalker said:There is no legal or indeed moral obligation for the UK government to grant Scotland an independence referendum, even if the SNP were to achieve a clean sweep of Scottish seats.
The lesson of the last few years is that referendums should be validatory rather than interrogative. I don’t think a Sindy referendum is justified unless there is a persistent and clear majority support for independence. 60, 65%
UK Constitutional law is fuzzy in this regard.0 -
Anorak said:Cyclefree said:Roger said:midwinter said:Roger said:Sean_F said:
Absolutely, well said CyclefreeRoger said:
Oh, well done, Cyclefree. Well done indeed.timmo said:
Three things off the top of my head:-Roger said:bookseller said:
1. Saying that British Jews needed to be taught irony.
2. Inviting a convicted anti-semite - Raed Salah - to Parliament saying that his voice needed to be heard.
3. Travelling to meet President Assad with a group which specifically denies the Holocaust.
The first caused great dismay amongst Jews here - some anyway.
On 2 and 3, I do not see how it is defensible to say that the voice of anti-semites should be heard in our Parliament as a guest or to choose to travel with Holocaust deniers. At the very least you are giving them your imprimatur as an MP. It might - just about - be defensible if you condemned those views but there is no record of Corbyn having done so with regard to either of those.
Read Deborah Lipstadt's book "Denying the Holocaust" and Richard Evans on the Irving libel trial to understand why it is important not to given Holocaust deniers any space at all.
Now to be absolutely clear I don't know whether Corbyn is himself anti-semitic or whether he simply allows others to express their anti-semitism. But the latter is very poor in a leader, especially one who claims to be anti-racist. He can be rightly called out on that.
If he is the lifelong anti-racist that he claims, it is most odd that under his leadership this stench has grown and not been removed; that so many people have felt able to utter vile anti-Jewish comments and that his party is facing a formal investigation on this issue by the Equalities and Human Rights Commission. It is all very unfortunate and for someone who is so in control of his party and so loved / admired by the members it is, well, a bit odd that he has not been able to impose his will and ensure that anti-semitism is removed from his party. After all, he has said a number of times that they don't do it in his name. So why do they keep doing it? Do they know better than him? Do they look at his record over the years instead? Or do they simply ignore him - and apparently only on this issue? It is very curious. Perhaps the actions don't match the words. Perhaps the words are just for show. Who can say?
Or maybe we should apply Ockham's Rule instead?0 -
And yet I was told off this morning by @peter_from_putney for suggesting people lay Bloomberg...Pulpstar said:On Clinton backers
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1192676396235141122
Also Bloomberg @ 18.5 on Betfair for the presidency is all sorts of ludicrous.0 -
The SNP making it pretty clear that Labour will agree to Indy2 in exchange for them propping up Corbyn will have some effect on voting north of the border.
Is it likely to be enough to save a couple of extra Tory seats though?0 -
Number of candidates binned for anti semitism?bigjohnowls said:Good stuff. Just chucked £100 in the pot
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/11927908382224998400 -
Yeah yeah. I await the army heading North as per your fantasy.HYUFD said:
It is not, Parliament is sovereign end of conversation.Gallowgate said:
Sorry this is not a fact.HYUFD said:
Indeed, Westminster could block indyref2 quite legally for ever and until the SNP get 55%+ of the vote in Scotland then agreed there is no clear demand for it anywayGardenwalker said:There is no legal or indeed moral obligation for the UK government to grant Scotland an independence referendum, even if the SNP were to achieve a clean sweep of Scottish seats.
The lesson of the last few years is that referendums should be validatory rather than interrogative. I don’t think a Sindy referendum is justified unless there is a persistent and clear majority support for independence. 60, 65%
UK Constitutional law is fuzzy in this regard.0 -
No it is not, the SNP made no reference to a 1979 to 2014 generation they said the result would be once in a generation.Alistair said:
The SNP were quite explicit the generation they were talking about was 1979-2014.HYUFD said:
No the next generation after 2014 would be about 2030 at the earliest.Alistair said:
On average there has been 1 independence referendum every 300 or so years.HYUFD said:
No they don't bar Richard Tyndall.williamglenn said:
You do realise that a lot of Brexit voters take the side of the Catalan separatists?HYUFD said:
Tories will ban indyref2 anyway so it is not an issue, they will deliver Brexit and ignore the SNPTheuniondivvie said:
Your second paragraph covers inconsistencies that tbf a few Brexiteers acknowledge, but many don't.148grss said:
Once again, I know think this will backfire. I don't know Sturgeon's +/- numbers amongst the English, but I assume they are higher than Corbyn's. If anything, this allows an argument for another party moderating Labour. Yes, they are Nats who want independence, but ot Brussels is a reasonable argument, why isn't making our laws in Holyrood not Westminster?Theuniondivvie said:The Tory party, bereft of ideas, returns to its last zinger that had a dribble of traction. Nicola pinching a wallet full of fine English banknotes next?
https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/1192778822569070592?s=20
I'm not quite sure who this tweet is aimed at. Polling consistently shows a majority of Tories and Brexiteers indifferent to the Union, and dumping Scotland & NI as a price worth paying for 'getting Brexit done'.
The Brexit Party is neutral on Scottish independence perhaps, the Conservative and Unionist Party as Boris has made clear will follow the lead of its sister party the Popular Party in Spain and ban a new indyref. 2014 was supposed to be a referendum for a generation
If we have another next year its one every 150 years. Still much less than once in a generation.
Quebec waited 15 years for its 2nd independence referendum in 1995 after the first in 1980
We are now in the next generation and a referendum is entirely legitimate.
Boris will block indyref2 using the full force of the British state if necessary if he wins a majority in Parliament at the next general election and as Spain has shown with Catalan nationalists the SNP could do little about it0 -
It seems an eminently reasonable state of affairs to me as well. But that's not how some people see it.Fishing said:
Not from me. Or the many successful federal countries in the world, starting with Germany, Switzerland, Canada, Australia and the United States.Recidivist said:
But I keep hearing that federal is bad?Fishing said:
We need a full, devolved English Parliament. A federal UK is the only long-term solution - everything else creates more problems than it solves.Philip_Thompson said:
If the Conservatives get a strong majority in this election they should pass some very strong EVFEL changes. They should be rather uncontroversial at the minute but should protect England after future elections from the whims of other nations with their own devolved powers.0 -
Was he? I thought it was Fagin (which is just as bad)Sunil_Prasannan said:
Shades of 2005 - Michael Howard was depicted as Shylock in a Labour campaign poster.BannedInParis said:Meanwhile in Clacton
https://twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/1192732667445424128?s=21&fbclid=IwAR3xAUt3pLtdpgtGs9hBV5K6Fiw-FYI22nwHR-lyk-Pr3sdApmbju2djbCI
"Says he didn't realise Shylock was Jewish"
oh
my
word0 -
Lol. Boris the savior of the rule of law.HYUFD said:
No it is not, the SNP made no reference to a 1979 to 2014 generation they said the result would be once in a generation.Alistair said:
The SNP were quite explicit the generation they were talking about was 1979-2014.HYUFD said:
No the next generation after 2014 would be about 2030 at the earliest.Alistair said:
On average there has been 1 independence referendum every 300 or so years.HYUFD said:
No they don't bar Richard Tyndall.williamglenn said:
You do realise that a lot of Brexit voters take the side of the Catalan separatists?HYUFD said:
Tories will ban indyref2 anyway so it is not an issue, they will deliver Brexit and ignore the SNPTheuniondivvie said:
Your second paragraph covers inconsistencies that tbf a few Brexiteers acknowledge, but many don't.148grss said:
Once again, I know think this will backfire. I don't know Sturgeon's +/- numbers amongst the English, but I assume they are higher than Corbyn's. If anything, this allows an argument for another party moderating Labour. Yes, they are Nats who want independence, but ot Brussels is a reasonable argument, why isn't making our laws in Holyrood not Westminster?Theuniondivvie said:The Tory party, bereft of ideas, returns to its last zinger that had a dribble of traction. Nicola pinching a wallet full of fine English banknotes next?
https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/1192778822569070592?s=20
I'm not quite sure who this tweet is aimed at. Polling consistently shows a majority of Tories and Brexiteers indifferent to the Union, and dumping Scotland & NI as a price worth paying for 'getting Brexit done'.
The Brexit Party is neutral on Scottish independence perhaps, the Conservative and Unionist Party as Boris has made clear will follow the lead of its sister party the Popular Party in Spain and ban a new indyref. 2014 was supposed to be a referendum for a generation
If we have another next year its one every 150 years. Still much less than once in a generation.
Quebec waited 15 years for its 2nd independence referendum in 1995 after the first in 1980
We are now in the next generation and a referendum is entirely legitimate.
Boris will block indyref2 using the full force of the British state if necessary if he wins a majority in Parliament at the next general election and as Spain has shown with Catalan nationalists the SNP could do little about it
Never-mind the right to self-determination.0 -
The plethora of leadership debates now in prospect seem likely to be pretty decisive - unlikely that they will be be seen as score draws. The BBC approach of having one Johnson/Corbyn debate and two multi-party debates seems fair to me.
Personally I think Corbyn will win on points. Johnson's jokey conversational style is less suited to the format than a prepared speech, and Corbyn's low ratings mean he only has to draw in order to do better than expected. What do others think?1 -
Yes, broadly, but it was later in the winter when there was a pool of very cold Arctic air to be displaced, so I wouldn't expect the same consequence necessarily now.Philip_Thompson said:
Isn't that what caused the 'Beast from the East'? Unnaturally warm weather in the Arctic pushing terrible weather South?Theuniondivvie said:Speaking of kaboom territory.
https://twitter.com/KrVaSt/status/1192379141880000512?s=200 -
It isn’t fair. Jo Swinson should be included.NickPalmer said:The plethora of leadership debates now in prospect seem likely to be pretty decisive - unlikely that they will be be seen as score draws. The BBC approach of having one Johnson/Corbyn debate and two multi-party debates seems fair to me.
Personally I think Corbyn will win on points. Johnson's jokey conversational style is less suited to the format than a prepared speech, and Corbyn's low ratings mean he only has to draw in order to do better than expected. What do others think?1 -
I'm sorry, I think you'll need to re check the literatureHYUFD said:
No it is not, the SNP made no reference to a 1979 to 2014 generation they said the result would be once in a generation.Alistair said:
The SNP were quite explicit the generation they were talking about was 1979-2014.HYUFD said:
No the next generation after 2014 would be about 2030 at the earliest.Alistair said:
On average there has been 1 independence referendum every 300 or so years.HYUFD said:
No they don't bar Richard Tyndall.williamglenn said:
You do realise that a lot of Brexit voters take the side of the Catalan separatists?HYUFD said:
Tories will ban indyref2 anyway so it is not an issue, they will deliver Brexit and ignore the SNPTheuniondivvie said:
Your second paragraph covers inconsistencies that tbf a few Brexiteers acknowledge, but many don't.148grss said:
Once again, I know think this will backfire. I don't know Sturgeon's +/- numbers amongst the English, but I assume they are higher than Corbyn's. If anything, this allows an argument for another party moderating Labour. Yes, they are Nats who want independence, but ot Brussels is a reasonable argument, why isn't making our laws in Holyrood not Westminster?Theuniondivvie said:The Tory party, bereft of ideas, returns to its last zinger that had a dribble of traction. Nicola pinching a wallet full of fine English banknotes next?
https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/1192778822569070592?s=20
I'm not quite sure who this tweet is aimed at. Polling consistently shows a majority of Tories and Brexiteers indifferent to the Union, and dumping Scotland & NI as a price worth paying for 'getting Brexit done'.
The Brexit Party is neutral on Scottish independence perhaps, the Conservative and Unionist Party as Boris has made clear will follow the lead of its sister party the Popular Party in Spain and ban a new indyref. 2014 was supposed to be a referendum for a generation
If we have another next year its one every 150 years. Still much less than once in a generation.
Quebec waited 15 years for its 2nd independence referendum in 1995 after the first in 1980
We are now in the next generation and a referendum is entirely legitimate.
Boris will block indyref2 using the full force of the British state if necessary if he wins a majority in Parliament at the next general election and as Spain has shown with Catalan nationalists the SNP could do little about it0 -
Agree: there is more downside for Johnson. But he can't refuse them after May 2017.NickPalmer said:The plethora of leadership debates now in prospect seem likely to be pretty decisive - unlikely that they will be be seen as score draws. The BBC approach of having one Johnson/Corbyn debate and two multi-party debates seems fair to me.
Personally I think Corbyn will win on points. Johnson's jokey conversational style is less suited to the format than a prepared speech, and Corbyn's low ratings mean he only has to draw in order to do better than expected. What do others think?0 -
There have been hundreds of thousands of words written on both the moral turpitude within Labour and the inevitable economic vandalism that would result from them being elected.Roger said:
Extraordinary how many people feel disgust without the ability to articulate what disgusts tham. Incidentally if it's disgust and not being scared then I'd add names like Theresa May for her immigrant go home buses and Pritti Patel for her views on execution and Travellers
However, it serves little purpose trying to convince the hardcore Labour supporters of the degeneracy of their party because tribalism trumps decency for many people i'm afraid.0 -
TV debate between Useless 1 and Useless 2. Will be compelling viewing.0
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Says you?? Brexit/Tory tribalism is just as badSunnyJim said:
There have been hundreds of thousands of words written on both the moral turpitude within Labour and the inevitable economic vandalism that would result from them being elected.Roger said:
Extraordinary how many people feel disgust without the ability to articulate what disgusts tham. Incidentally if it's disgust and not being scared then I'd add names like Theresa May for her immigrant go home buses and Pritti Patel for her views on execution and Travellers
However, it serves little purpose trying to convince the hardcore Labour supporters of the degeneracy of their party because tribalism trumps decency for many people i'm afraid.0 -
No idea I thought you were keeping a tally?Floater said:
Number of candidates binned for anti semitism?bigjohnowls said:Good stuff. Just chucked £100 in the pot
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1192790838222499840
40,000 people at an average of £26 seems like good going to me though.0 -
1979-2014 is 35 years, which is about right for a generation. So they were arguing the next opportunity would be around 2050.Alistair said:
The SNP were quite explicit the generation they were talking about was 1979-2014..2 -
I support Boris but even I find myself getting irritated with the waffling oratory so I can well imagine it will go down like a cup of cold sick in the northern areas...I know my family in Manchester find him a little 'challenging' to listen to.NickPalmer said:The plethora of leadership debates now in prospect seem likely to be pretty decisive - unlikely that they will be be seen as score draws. The BBC approach of having one Johnson/Corbyn debate and two multi-party debates seems fair to me.
Personally I think Corbyn will win on points. Johnson's jokey conversational style is less suited to the format than a prepared speech, and Corbyn's low ratings mean he only has to draw in order to do better than expected. What do others think?
He should keep it short and sharp.
I suspect both leaders will be happy to come out of the debates without a clear winner or any awful soundbites that could be used on the news.0 -
The bit I like best is when he says "I'm the prime minister of the United Kingdom". We knew that. For full effect he should tag on the words "so I would never lie to you, and also I know exactly what I'm saying and doing", because that's what he's trying to say. He's flustered because he knows he's selling a turd. (No British government can impose a policy on NI without support or acquiescence from the DUP, and neither will be forthcoming. His deal is dead in the water.) The phrase "great deal" sounds almost comical.Richard_Nabavi said:On topic: Well quite. How on earth anyone of integrity could vote for Corbyn's Labour is a mystery.
On the other hand: have we discussed the excruciating video of Boris 'explaining' how trade between NI and GB would work under his deal with the EU?
https://twitter.com/ManufacturingNI/status/1192564837345353728
It is absolutely gob-smacking. For a start he sounds drunk. He's verging on completely incoherent. And inasmuch as you can understand what he's saying, it bears no relation to the official government interpretation of how the deal would work.
How in the name of heaven did the Conservative Party saddle itself, and us, with this guy?
There are five weeks to go and he is bound to come a cropper. If he goes ahead with the one-on-one with Jeremy Corbyn it's going to be embarrassing.
I picture him as a drunk slurring "The Labour Party would be OK if it didn't have shuch a leadershshship problem (burp)."0 -
I'd almost forgotten "British Jews needed to be taught irony." that's up there with "laying a wreath at the grave of a Munich terrorist".
Present
But not involved.
0 -
You’ve lifted those bullets from MaajidNawaz’s twitter. They were about institutional anti-semitism not Corbyn specificallyRoger said:
I managed to follow a lead posted by Gabs and the answer to my question is here: Can anyone add to this or is this it? (Corbyn's anti-Semitism)MarqueeMark said:
Number 6 a rather desperate attempt to shoe-horn some supposed anti-semitism by Boris.Roger said:
If it exists its really not difficult. I'll make it easy I'll give you a few examples of racism out of the top of my head and you match themFloater said:
You cant tie it to one person its becoming systemicRoger said:Could we try asking all the posters who have posted on here this morning to describe the anti semitic act by Jeremy Corbyn that has offended them on behalf of their Jewish bretheren the most? (Preferably not connected with Israel).
Shame on you for trying to downplay the problem.
1. A poster showing Muslims 'flooding ' into the country with Nigel Farage standing in front of it.
2. Quentin Letts referring to Ed Milliband's 'large conk' in the Dail Mail.
3. Michael Howard's Are you thinking what we're thinking' featuring Gypsies.
4. Vote Leave's broadcast on the NHS. Nice old lady couldn't see a doctor because the waiting room was full of swarthy Immigrants
5. Theresa May's 'Immigrant's Go Home' vans driving through Golders Green.
6. Boris Johnson's bank robber reference to all those wearing large black hats and side curls or was it Burqas?
You have probably forgotten that the "bank robber" speech was the one where Boris defended the right of Muslim women to wear the burqa?
a) traditional European antisemitism flooding back into Labour (eg: East London ‘greedy capitalist’ mural that Corbyn defended)
b) holding Israel’s Jews to higher standard than the world
c) an obsessive focus on Israel for errors that are far worse elsewhere
You also missed out
d) supporting or otherwise praising genocidal, Jew-murdering terrorist groups0 -
The SNP are likely desperate for a big Tory majority that takes us out the EU so they can build a sense of grievance for the referendum whenever Labour comes back into power.Gallowgate said:
Lol. Boris the savior of the rule of law.
Never-mind the right to self-determination.
A Labour Gov't gets them the ref but less chance of securing a YES in Indyref2.0 -
Certainly he would be well advised to stay off the drink at gatherings where he is being filmed.Pierrot said:
The bit I like best is when he says "I'm the prime minister of the United Kingdom". We knew that. For full effect he should tag on the words "so I would never lie to you, and also I know exactly what I'm saying and doing", because that's what he's trying to say. He's flustered because he knows he's selling a turd. The phrase "great deal" sounds almost comical.Richard_Nabavi said:On topic: Well quite. How on earth anyone of integrity could vote for Corbyn's Labour is a mystery.
On the other hand: have we discussed the excruciating video of Boris 'explaining' how trade between NI and GB would work under his deal with the EU?
https://twitter.com/ManufacturingNI/status/1192564837345353728
It is absolutely gob-smacking. For a start he sounds drunk. He's verging on completely incoherent. And inasmuch as you can understand what he's saying, it bears no relation to the official government interpretation of how the deal would work.
How in the name of heaven did the Conservative Party saddle itself, and us, with this guy?
There are five weeks to go and he is bound to come a cropper. If he goes ahead with the one-on-one with Jeremy Corbyn it's going to be embarrassing.
I picture him as a drunk slurring "The Labour Party would be OK if it didn't have shuch a leadershshship problem (burp)."0 -
I think you're displaying a surprising attachment to entrenched privilege...NickPalmer said:The plethora of leadership debates now in prospect seem likely to be pretty decisive - unlikely that they will be be seen as score draws. The BBC approach of having one Johnson/Corbyn debate and two multi-party debates seems fair to me....
What do others think?1 -
Lets be honest if Brexit happens and Scotland is negatively affected, which obviously it will be, independence is happening regardless of what @HYUFD or Boris thinks.Pulpstar said:
The SNP are likely desperate for a big Tory majority that takes us out the EU so they can build a sense of grievance for the referendum whenever Labour comes back into power.Gallowgate said:
Lol. Boris the savior of the rule of law.
Never-mind the right to self-determination.
A Labour Gov't gets them the ref but less chance of securing a YES in Indyref2.0 -
Weren’t me, guvCyclefree said:
Charles: I’ve corrected you several times on the “4 days longer than usual” nonsense. This is simply incorrect. Don’t keep repeating it. It’s flat out wrong. The Tories sought to suspend democracy and avoid scrutiny, something they have been doing repeatedly since Boris became PM. This is not the mark of a party or a leadership which truly - in its bones - understands what democracy is about.MarqueeMark said:
Prorogation is always a "suspension of democracy". Do you think we should never use prorogation?AlastairMeeks said:
The government literally suspended democracy when it prorogued to avoid scrutiny by the country's elected representatives. But you loved that because the trashing of our civic structures was in aid of your mad obsession.Philip_Thompson said:
I was furious about the idea of the government suspending democracy. That's why I opposed the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:
You don't get furious about the government suspending democracy.Charles said:
What?Martin_Kinsella said:
How very kind of you to appoint yourself as spokesperson for the entire Muslim community in the UK. I'm sure they'll be very happy to have you in the role.Charles said:
What don’t you get?TheJezziah said:Charles said:
The Jewish community is terrified and nearly half are considering leaving the country.
Of course there are some racists in the Tory party - as in every party - but they have a Muslim heritage Chancellor (I believe he’s agnostic?)
The Muslim community may not vote Tory, but they are not afraid of them.
I’m not appointing myself spokesman for anyone. I’ve not seen data suggesting Muslims are afraid of a Tory government
But fuck you. Our Jewish fellow citizens are being attacked and you want to make cute debating points.
I recognise your name so I guess you’ve been around for awhile. You’ll know that I don’t get riled up by much. This makes me furious.
You chortle when race-baiting is used to win a referendum so that you can profit from the chaos.
You're very selective in the causes of your fury. Motes and beams, motes and beams.
The government never suspended democracy though. The backstop was defeated and we now have a general election.
I'm not sure what was avoiding scrutiny, given there was nothing to scrutinise until the EU met and came up with Boris's Deal. As was said at the time of the 4-days-longer-than-usual prorogation. But if you want to descend into your own hystrical world where it equates with burning the Reichstag, .....0 -
He sounds almost as surprised as I am.Pierrot said:
The bit I like best is when he says "I'm the prime minister of the United Kingdom". We knew that....Richard_Nabavi said:On topic: Well quite. How on earth anyone of integrity could vote for Corbyn's Labour is a mystery.
On the other hand: have we discussed the excruciating video of Boris 'explaining' how trade between NI and GB would work under his deal with the EU?
https://twitter.com/ManufacturingNI/status/1192564837345353728
It is absolutely gob-smacking. For a start he sounds drunk. He's verging on completely incoherent. And inasmuch as you can understand what he's saying, it bears no relation to the official government interpretation of how the deal would work.
How in the name of heaven did the Conservative Party saddle itself, and us, with this guy?
0 -
What a prospect; a official sense of grievance in Scotland!Pulpstar said:
The SNP are likely desperate for a big Tory majority that takes us out the EU so they can build a sense of grievance for the referendum whenever Labour comes back into power.Gallowgate said:
Lol. Boris the savior of the rule of law.
Never-mind the right to self-determination.
A Labour Gov't gets them the ref but less chance of securing a YES in Indyref2.0 -
I think you're right that the SNP need the Tories returned and Brexit completed for them to have a good chance of winning Ind2.Pulpstar said:
The SNP are likely desperate for a big Tory majority that takes us out the EU so they can build a sense of grievance for the referendum whenever Labour comes back into power.
A Labour Gov't gets them the ref but less chance of securing a YES in Indyref2.
I'd like to see the SNP achieve their aims and would happily support them in securing independence.0 -
It does seem concerning to see the same conditions replicated and if this becomes a regular thing it won't take too long before this happens later in the winter again.OblitusSumMe said:
Yes, broadly, but it was later in the winter when there was a pool of very cold Arctic air to be displaced, so I wouldn't expect the same consequence necessarily now.Philip_Thompson said:
Isn't that what caused the 'Beast from the East'? Unnaturally warm weather in the Arctic pushing terrible weather South?Theuniondivvie said:Speaking of kaboom territory.
https://twitter.com/KrVaSt/status/1192379141880000512?s=200 -
Well, Labour are the experts in wasting money, so go right ahead!bigjohnowls said:Good stuff. Just chucked £100 in the pot
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1192790838222499840
1 -
The duopoly have been using our dire electoral system to try to blackmail everyone into voting for one or other of them for generations. It will never change as they both benefit enormously from it.CarlottaVance said:
Our system is broken but we are in a Catch-22 as the system will always deliver us governments that benefit from the system so will never change it.0 -
Apologies if this has been linked to before but Yougov's latest ratings of the 2 main leaders: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/boris-johnson-fans-now-outweigh-his-detractors
Some truly remarkable figures not least of which is that fully 20% of the UK population consider Corbyn competent. I mean, wow.0 -
Labour’s floor.DavidL said:Apologies if this has been linked to before but Yougov's latest ratings of the 2 main leaders: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/boris-johnson-fans-now-outweigh-his-detractors
Some truly remarkable figures not least of which is that fully 20% of the UK population consider Corbyn competent. I mean, wow.0 -
Another example of Labour's belief in entrenched privilege.OllyT said:
The duopoly have been using our dire electoral system to try to blackmail everyone into voting for one or other of them for generations. It will never change as they both benefit enormously from it.CarlottaVance said:
Our system is broken but we are in a Catch-22 as the system will always deliver us governments that benefit from the system so will never change it.
It's part of the Tories' raison d'être - what's Labour's excuse ?0 -
That’s a 10 point lead?williamglenn said:0 -
I doubt if the debates will make much difference to be honest. Neither leader is good at debating, and neither will respond to the other's points. Instead they will rehash all the standard attack lines - you can pretty much write out now what they will say. Also, it's not as though either of them is a new and fresh option whom voters haven't yet considered much, as Nick Clegg managed to present himself in 2010.NickPalmer said:The plethora of leadership debates now in prospect seem likely to be pretty decisive - unlikely that they will be be seen as score draws. The BBC approach of having one Johnson/Corbyn debate and two multi-party debates seems fair to me.
Personally I think Corbyn will win on points. Johnson's jokey conversational style is less suited to the format than a prepared speech, and Corbyn's low ratings mean he only has to draw in order to do better than expected. What do others think?
So I expect little impact, with each side's partisans convinced their man won, and everyone else shrugging their shoulders and saying they were both useless.0 -
...says the very important millstone.bigjohnowls said:Good stuff. Just chucked £100 in the pot
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1192790838222499840
0 -
Is that new, that's been on the wiki list for a day or so now.williamglenn said:1 -
Unless they conducted a poll covering the same date for the same company twice, I think this is old news:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/df8cjzcpgw/TheTimes_Sky_VI_191106_w.pdf0 -
CarlottaVance said:
The 2017 GE narrative was of May securing an enormous majority which allowed voters like these to support Corbyn safe in the knowledge that he would never be elected.
Who knows how many of those types of 'safe protest' voter there were but i'm pretty certain there will be far far fewer of them this time.
0 -
All these megarich people entering the Democratic Primary are good for Warren and Sanders. They split the moderate vote and show just how entitled the donor class is, thinking they can buy the presidency with their money. After Schultz, Steyer and Bloomberg are seen off and she gets to the general, Warren can say, "I have seen off three billionaires on behalf of the people, now let's make it four."0
-
And the regional breakdowns of their polling: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-
Labour vote almost totally collapsing in a lot of places, specifically the East Midlands, West Midlands and the North West where the Tories are now ahead. They are going to lose a lot of seats in these places unless there is a big change.0 -
I backed Hunt.Beibheirli_C said:
I take it that is a rhetorical question @Richard_Nabavi ? You had an inside track for many years, moreso than the rest of us. If anyone knows, it should be you.Richard_Nabavi said:On topic: Well quite. How on earth anyone of integrity could vote for Corbyn's Labour is a mystery.
On the other hand: have we discussed the excruciating video of Boris 'explaining' how trade between NI and GB would work under his deal with the EU?
https://twitter.com/ManufacturingNI/status/1192564837345353728
It is absolutely gob-smacking. For a start he sounds drunk. He's verging on completely incoherent. And inasmuch as you can understand what he's saying, it bears no relation to the official government interpretation of how the deal would work.
How in the name of heaven did the Conservative Party saddle itself, and us, with this guy?
Perhaps Charles can nudge a few of his contacts???0 -
Lucky for Labour there's not many marginals in the Midlands (!)DavidL said:And the regional breakdowns of their polling: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-
Labour vote almost totally collapsing in a lot of places, specifically the East Midlands, West Midlands and the East. They are going to lose a lot of seats in these places unless there is a big change.0 -
Of rather more concern is the melting of the Greenland glaciers and the polar ice.Philip_Thompson said:
It does seem concerning to see the same conditions replicated and if this becomes a regular thing it won't take too long before this happens later in the winter again.OblitusSumMe said:
Yes, broadly, but it was later in the winter when there was a pool of very cold Arctic air to be displaced, so I wouldn't expect the same consequence necessarily now.Philip_Thompson said:
Isn't that what caused the 'Beast from the East'? Unnaturally warm weather in the Arctic pushing terrible weather South?Theuniondivvie said:Speaking of kaboom territory.
https://twitter.com/KrVaSt/status/1192379141880000512?s=200 -
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-criticised-for-anti-semitic-howard-poster-488998.htmlCharles said:
Was he? I thought it was Fagin (which is just as bad)Sunil_Prasannan said:
Shades of 2005 - Michael Howard was depicted as Shylock in a Labour campaign poster.BannedInParis said:Meanwhile in Clacton
https://twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/1192732667445424128?s=21&fbclid=IwAR3xAUt3pLtdpgtGs9hBV5K6Fiw-FYI22nwHR-lyk-Pr3sdApmbju2djbCI
"Says he didn't realise Shylock was Jewish"
oh
my
word
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-336166/Tories-slam-scrapped-Shylock-posters.html0 -
The Liberal Party a century ago let the Labour piggy-back on it into Parliament and look what happened to it.OllyT said:
The duopoly have been using our dire electoral system to try to blackmail everyone into voting for one or other of them for generations. It will never change as they both benefit enormously from it.CarlottaVance said:
Our system is broken but we are in a Catch-22 as the system will always deliver us governments that benefit from the system so will never change it.
But you're right; FPTP is a primitive system.0 -
0
-
Could be worse - could be an "Ed-stone"!Nigelb said:
...says the very important millstone.bigjohnowls said:Good stuff. Just chucked £100 in the pot
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/11927908382224998400 -
That’s a fair prediction.StuartDickson said:
SLDs sub-10%? Don’t believe it. Their supporters are notoriously shy.marke09 said:Latest polling in Scotland:
25 point lead for the SNP
Conservative 22%
Labour 10%
Lib Dem 8%
SNP 47%
Brexit Party 5%
Green 8%
YouGov/The Times/Sky 5-6 Nov
SLab 10%? Almost believable. Maybe low teens?
SCon 22%? A bit low. Maybe 25%.
SNP 47%? Maybe, but if the Greens put up lots of candidates, you can knock at least 3 points off that.
Still, to be 40%+ twelve years into Government, in an FPTP election: I’m chuffed.0 -
As I said yesterday, my new rule is to only trust polling announcements by knights of the realm.Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
The latest image shows Mr Howard swinging a pocket watch on a chain, which critics say echoes the Jewish moneylender in The Merchant of Venice.Sunil_Prasannan said:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-criticised-for-anti-semitic-howard-poster-488998.htmlCharles said:
Was he? I thought it was Fagin (which is just as bad)Sunil_Prasannan said:
Shades of 2005 - Michael Howard was depicted as Shylock in a Labour campaign poster.BannedInParis said:Meanwhile in Clacton
https://twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/1192732667445424128?s=21&fbclid=IwAR3xAUt3pLtdpgtGs9hBV5K6Fiw-FYI22nwHR-lyk-Pr3sdApmbju2djbCI
"Says he didn't realise Shylock was Jewish"
oh
my
word
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-336166/Tories-slam-scrapped-Shylock-posters.html
I know Shakespeare was fond of anachronism, but I think Charles was right about it being a Fagin reference.
0 -
I'm pretty sure that Corbyn will prove worse this time around.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Could be worse - could be an "Ed-stone"!Nigelb said:
...says the very important millstone.bigjohnowls said:Good stuff. Just chucked £100 in the pot
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/11927908382224998400 -
Pointless anecdote alert: yesterday I was in Barts for my annual round of blood tests and found myself in a busy NHS lift full of patients and hospital staff, when some guy in a corduroy type jacket who was clearly involved in the Labour campaign got in with two junior oppos. This guy was very loudly telling his colleagues that he recently been in a meeting with “Jeremy” and everything was apparently going very well with the campaign. He continued his monologue as the lift slowly worked its way up the building; so animated was he that he stepped backwards onto the foot of a small Asian woman standing behind him; as he turned round to apologise he nearly knocked over an elderly woman standing with a cane. When the lift reached the top floor, he looked round at his colleagues and said “how did we end up here?” and one of them said “none of us pressed the button for the floor that we wanted”. Everyone else got out.
I don’t see any party political point here, and I have no idea why they were in the hospital in the first place. What struck me was how these three people teleported in from the world of full time politics had so little awareness of how to behave in the real world environment of a hospital lift.2 -
The Shylock posters were in fact scrapped before release, as the url says:Nigelb said:
The latest image shows Mr Howard swinging a pocket watch on a chain, which critics say echoes the Jewish moneylender in The Merchant of Venice.Sunil_Prasannan said:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-criticised-for-anti-semitic-howard-poster-488998.htmlCharles said:
Was he? I thought it was Fagin (which is just as bad)Sunil_Prasannan said:
Shades of 2005 - Michael Howard was depicted as Shylock in a Labour campaign poster.BannedInParis said:Meanwhile in Clacton
https://twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/1192732667445424128?s=21&fbclid=IwAR3xAUt3pLtdpgtGs9hBV5K6Fiw-FYI22nwHR-lyk-Pr3sdApmbju2djbCI
"Says he didn't realise Shylock was Jewish"
oh
my
word
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-336166/Tories-slam-scrapped-Shylock-posters.html
I know Shakespeare was fond of anachronism, but I think Charles was right about it being a Fagin reference.
/article-336166/Tories-slam-scrapped-Shylock-posters.html0 -
Bloody hell.DavidL said:And the regional breakdowns of their polling: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-
Labour vote almost totally collapsing in a lot of places, specifically the East Midlands, West Midlands and the North West where the Tories are now ahead. They are going to lose a lot of seats in these places unless there is a big change.0 -
Put them in the bin.IanB2 said:Pointless anecdote alert: yesterday I was in Barts for my annual round of blood tests and found myself in a busy NHS lift full of patients and hospital staff, when some guy in a corduroy type jacket who was clearly involved in the Labour campaign got in with two junior oppos. This guy was very loudly telling his colleagues that he recently been in a meeting with “Jeremy” and everything was apparently going very well with the campaign. He continued his monologue as the lift slowly worked its way up the building; so animated was he that he stepped backwards onto the foot of a small Asian woman standing behind him; as he turned round to apologise he nearly knocked over an elderly woman standing with a cane. When the lift reached the top floor, he looked round at his colleagues and said “how did we end up here?” and one of them said “none of us pressed the button for the floor that we wanted”. Everyone else got out.
I don’t see any party political point here, and I have no idea why they were in the hospital in the first place. What struck me was how these three people teleported in from the world of full time politics had so little awareness of how to behave in the real world environment of a hospital lift.0 -
The problem is it is a pig in a pokePhilip_Thompson said:
If the Conservatives get a strong majority in this election they should pass some very strong EVFEL changes. They should be rather uncontroversial at the minute but should protect England after future elections from the whims of other nations with their own devolved powers.GarethoftheVale2 said:
You are forgetting about EVFEL. At the moment it is the dog that hasn't barked as the Cons are running the UK and had a majority of 103 in England at the last election.Black_Rook said:
There'll be no large-scale MP defections from Labour. Any of the MPs from the 2017 Parliament who were going to leave have already done so, and their replacements will be loyalists. The remainder will stay in Labour at any cost, because they're fanatically tribal, think it's the only way to keep their jobs, or both.Big_G_NorthWales said:The last 24 hours has been a torrid time for labour and in particular Corbyn
Ian Austin and John Woodcock later joined by John
The media are full of it and this issue is not going away no matter how much Corbyn supporters try to deflect it to other parties. It is now the narrative for the labour party and something will have to give
No matter the outcome between Boris and the lib dems labour are in a very bad and dark place. They will lose seats and labour mps returned to the HOC who are on the moderate wing will have a choice, support the leader they despise, or join with the lib dems creating a new centre left party, thereby stranding Corbyn and relegating his part of labour into third place behind a revitalised left leaning social democratic party that would enjoy wide support.
Also this election may be morrphing from Brexit into stop Corbyn any cost
Fantasy, maybe but impossible, no
Corbyn's abysmal ratings will do some damage to Labour, but they should still poll reasonably well. The impact of the antisemitism issue, amongst other things, will be limited because most Labour voters are robots and the bulk of Labour seats are held with large enough majorities to remain safe in any event.
It'll be touch and go whether the Conservatives get a majority, and if they do then the best the English party can do is to let the SNP have their second independence referendum and not try too hard to win it.
Scottish independence converts a thin Tory majority South of the Border into a large one. It's the most effective way to keep us safe from Labour, and should therefore be welcomed.
Easy to imagine a Tory majority in England and a Labour government. Who would control, for example, NHS England?
Far better to move to a proper federal structure0 -
I've always thought the West and East Midlands are going to be particularly bad for Labour at this election.DavidL said:And the regional breakdowns of their polling: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-
Labour vote almost totally collapsing in a lot of places, specifically the East Midlands, West Midlands and the North West where the Tories are now ahead. They are going to lose a lot of seats in these places unless there is a big change.0 -
Labour are fourth in Scotland !Casino_Royale said:
That’s a fair prediction.StuartDickson said:
SLDs sub-10%? Don’t believe it. Their supporters are notoriously shy.marke09 said:Latest polling in Scotland:
25 point lead for the SNP
Conservative 22%
Labour 10%
Lib Dem 8%
SNP 47%
Brexit Party 5%
Green 8%
YouGov/The Times/Sky 5-6 Nov
SLab 10%? Almost believable. Maybe low teens?
SCon 22%? A bit low. Maybe 25%.
SNP 47%? Maybe, but if the Greens put up lots of candidates, you can knock at least 3 points off that.
Still, to be 40%+ twelve years into Government, in an FPTP election: I’m chuffed.
https://mobile.twitter.com/YouGov/status/1192803345423093760
0 -
Mr. Charles, an English Parliament with powers corresponding directly to Holyrood is the natural step.
I get why the left don't want it (they'd start out with a difficult electoral task, although Scotland has proven this situation can change quickly) but the reluctance of the Conservatives is more perplexing.0 -
Im a Celebrity will be on other side Besides Useless 3 has launched a legal challengeGallowgate said:TV debate between Useless 1 and Useless 2. Will be compelling viewing.
0 -
YouGov regional survey:
North East:
Lab 32% (-23)
Con 26% (-8)
BRX 19%
LD 15% (+10)
Grn 7% (+6)
North West:
Con 33% (-3)
Lab 30% (-25)
LD 17% (+15)
BRX 14%
Grn 5% (+4)
Yorkshire & The Humber:
Con 34% (-7)
Lab 29% (-20)
LD 16% (+11)
BRX 14%
Grn 7% (+6)0 -
The North West caught the eyeDavidL said:And the regional breakdowns of their polling: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-
Labour vote almost totally collapsing in a lot of places, specifically the East Midlands, West Midlands and the North West where the Tories are now ahead. They are going to lose a lot of seats in these places unless there is a big change.0 -
Those figures are also awful in the North west, considering that it includes Labour bastions like Liverpool and Manchester. That sort of swing would bring seats like Ellesmere Port, Oldham East and Stalybridge into play.Philip_Thompson said:
Lucky for Labour there's not many marginals in the Midlands (!)DavidL said:And the regional breakdowns of their polling: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-
Labour vote almost totally collapsing in a lot of places, specifically the East Midlands, West Midlands and the East. They are going to lose a lot of seats in these places unless there is a big change.0 -
To put it into perspective the first 18 Labour losses require a swing of less than 2%: http://www.justsolutions.eu/Marginals/labMarginals.aspAnorak said:
Bloody hell.DavidL said:And the regional breakdowns of their polling: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-
Labour vote almost totally collapsing in a lot of places, specifically the East Midlands, West Midlands and the North West where the Tories are now ahead. They are going to lose a lot of seats in these places unless there is a big change.
Subject to Tory losses elsewhere (and they are down everywhere too) that's enough.
In many areas Labour are currently facing a swing of 6-8%. Surely a Tory majority is value at the current odds. There is so much apprehension that there will be a repeat of 2017 but I think that it is being overdone.0 -
West Midlands, perhaps. East Midlands looks stickier: the urban seats all now look comfortable for Labour, and from the constituency poll Gedling is also looking a hold. They may lose one or two of the coalfield seats.AndyJS said:
I've always thought the West and East Midlands are going to be particularly bad for Labour at this election.DavidL said:And the regional breakdowns of their polling: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-
Labour vote almost totally collapsing in a lot of places, specifically the East Midlands, West Midlands and the North West where the Tories are now ahead. They are going to lose a lot of seats in these places unless there is a big change.0 -
I think this is mostly related to the lack of sea ice, so the underlying cause is a bit different to the late winter events which propagate from the Stratosphere.Philip_Thompson said:
It does seem concerning to see the same conditions replicated and if this becomes a regular thing it won't take too long before this happens later in the winter again.OblitusSumMe said:
Yes, broadly, but it was later in the winter when there was a pool of very cold Arctic air to be displaced, so I wouldn't expect the same consequence necessarily now.Philip_Thompson said:
Isn't that what caused the 'Beast from the East'? Unnaturally warm weather in the Arctic pushing terrible weather South?Theuniondivvie said:Speaking of kaboom territory.
https://twitter.com/KrVaSt/status/1192379141880000512?s=20
That said, there are scientists who propose a link between the decline in sea-ice from 2007 onwards and the run of more frequent cold winters we've had since then. I'm not convinced, I still think it might be natural variability.0 -
Precious union update:
https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/11928035516905308180 -
YouGov regional survey (continued):
East Midlands:
Con 45% (-6)
Lab 22% (-19)
LD 15% (+11)
BRX 12%
Grn 6% (+4)
West Midlands:
Con 43% (-6)
Lab 23% (-20)
LD 14% (+10)
BRX 12%
Grn 7% (+5)
Eastern:
Con 45% (-10)
Lab 17% (-16)
LD 18% (+10)
BRX 14%
Grn 5% (+3)0 -
Those regional polling figures for the Midlands, NW and NE are horrific for Labour.DavidL said:And the regional breakdowns of their polling: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-
Labour vote almost totally collapsing in a lot of places, specifically the East Midlands, West Midlands and the North West where the Tories are now ahead. They are going to lose a lot of seats in these places unless there is a big change.
IF the polls reflect reality on the day and the Tories can convince enough potential LD voters in the south that Corbyn is too great a moral and economic risk to take then they will secure a healthy majority.
I'm still backing a hung parliament though with the Tories sat on 300 (+/- 10).0 -
Polling anecdotes:
my mother just told me of a conversation she had with two friends. One normally votes Conservatives, but voted to Remain, yet thinks the result should be implemented. Another normally votes Lib Dem, but thinks we should leave, but isn't sure she can bring herself to vote Conservative, but is worried about the idea of Corbyn winning.0 -
Roger? BJO?
https://twitter.com/Freedland/status/1192799276449107968Mahmood, a solicitor for 12 years, said that ‘somebody needs to shoot all the Israeli Zionists dead then send their bodies to America as a present for Obama and his Zionist pals’.
Ahhh, that's why he was a candidate for Corbyn's Labour.0 -
An 11% swing. I find it really hard to believe to be honest.BannedInParis said:
The North West caught the eyeDavidL said:And the regional breakdowns of their polling: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-
Labour vote almost totally collapsing in a lot of places, specifically the East Midlands, West Midlands and the North West where the Tories are now ahead. They are going to lose a lot of seats in these places unless there is a big change.0 -
You know when people said the old might be put off voting because of the bad weather etc
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7664323/Mobility-scooter-user-powers-rising-floods-Sheffield.html0 -
YouGov regional survey (continued):
London:
Lab 39% (-16)
Con 29% (-4)
LD 19% (+10)
BRX 6%
Grn 5% (+3)
South East:
Con 41% (-13)
LD 23% (+12)
Lab 16% (-13)
BRX 12%
Grn 6% (+3)
South West:
Con 41% (-10)
LD 21% (+6)
Lab 17% (-12)
BRX 13%
Grn 7% (+5)0 -
There won't be any forms under PM Johnson because he'll extend the transitions for as long as he thinks he can get away with it.0
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Moreover, it looks as if the LD resurgence in the south is making the Tory geographical vote distribution pretty darn efficient. Anyone have more insight as to whether this is masking significant sub-regional constituency peaks and troughs?DavidL said:And the regional breakdowns of their polling: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-
Labour vote almost totally collapsing in a lot of places, specifically the East Midlands, West Midlands and the North West where the Tories are now ahead. They are going to lose a lot of seats in these places unless there is a big change.
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YouGov regional survey (continued):
Scotland:
SNP 42% (+5)
Con 22% (-7)
LD 13% (+6)
Lab 12% (-15)
BRX 6%
Grn 4% (+4)
Wales:
Lab 29% (-20)
Con 28% (-6)
BRX 15%
LD 12% (+7)
PC 12% (+2)0 -
Are they accounting for Don't Knows properly? The total vote for everyone is down.DavidL said:And the regional breakdowns of their polling: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-
Labour vote almost totally collapsing in a lot of places, specifically the East Midlands, West Midlands and the North West where the Tories are now ahead. They are going to lose a lot of seats in these places unless there is a big change.
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It is one thing to miss a tweet from 10 years ago, but how the hell do you miss that in your background checks...unless you actually dont give a shit anymore.Anorak said:Roger? BJO?
https://twitter.com/Freedland/status/1192799276449107968Mahmood, a solicitor for 12 years, said that ‘somebody needs to shoot all the Israeli Zionists dead then send their bodies to America as a present for Obama and his Zionist pals’.
Ahhh, that's why he was a candidate for Corbyn's Labour.0
