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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB’s GE17 performance is misleading as a tactical voting guid

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  • a



    You don't get furious about the government suspending democracy.

    You chortle when race-baiting is used to win a referendum so that you can profit from the chaos.

    You're very selective in the causes of your fury. Motes and beams, motes and beams.

    I was furious about the idea of the government suspending democracy. That's why I opposed the backstop.

    The government never suspended democracy though. The backstop was defeated and we now have a general election.
    The government literally suspended democracy when it prorogued to avoid scrutiny by the country's elected representatives. But you loved that because the trashing of our civic structures was in aid of your mad obsession.
    No it didn't. For a few reasons.

    1: Did you miss the Supreme Court case? Parliament was never prorogued so it didn't prorogue Parliament.
    2: The proposed prorogation, which never happened, was for just a few sitting days and over recess prior to a proposed Queens Speech.
    3: When prorogation happened, the Queens Speech did occur quite lawfully and guess what, the same number of sitting days were lost. Funny that!

    The backstop would have meant we'd have laws applied to us that we had no right to vote on. But yeah, bang on about a few sitting days and a prorogation because that's the big picture isn't it? You're so monomaniacal you can't see the woods for the trees now.
    Number 2, which is particularly popular among the death cult and has already been mentioned by one of your fellow cultists on this thread, is simply untrue. Which makes number 3 untrue too.

    Quite what it is that makes the death cult so flaky with facts, goodness only knows (your account of the backstop is pretty extraordinary too). But I appreciate that comforting lies are much more appealing than hard truths.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Alistair said:

    Loving the volume of "I don't bet" posts on Political Betting Dot Com.

    In fairness, that's always been a big element of the site. Plenty come for the discussion rather than for the betting. And that's fine.

    Especially with tips like back 1/4 Remain, Lay 5/1 Boris Tory leader and pile on no election in 2019 😉
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    timmo said:

    After having done a little bit of canvassing over the last week as a sanity check on the 2017 Tory pledges I am now in a position to say that I think the Conservatives are in some real trouble.
    People apathetic(I know more than 2017) and some lib dem tory waiverers from that year are now 100% LD.
    I know it's a sample of only a hundred or so but you get a bit of a feeling on the doorstep. Bojo is so marmite that he pretty much gets those that dont like him determined to vote him out.

    Which constituency?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    HYUFD said:
    I remember telling Tony Blair that he was making a mistake sending Gisela as representative to European discussions. He was a forerunner to the Theresa May theory that bringing critics into the tent was a good way of getting them on side. Went well for both of them...
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Anorak said:

    More French than the French, those Quebecois.
    https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1192739867316367360

    The story says the opposite of the tweet. She did demonstrate sufficient proficiency in French (she is probably at DALF C2 level) but did not complete all of her education in French. That was the reason she got knocked back.
  • Anorak said:



    The government literally suspended democracy when it prorogued to avoid scrutiny by the country's elected representatives. But you loved that because the trashing of our civic structures was in aid of your mad obsession.

    No it didn't. For a few reasons.

    1: Did you miss the Supreme Court case? Parliament was never prorogued so it didn't prorogue Parliament.
    2: The proposed prorogation, which never happened, was for just a few sitting days and over recess prior to a proposed Queens Speech.
    3: When prorogation happened, the Queens Speech did occur quite lawfully and guess what, the same number of sitting days were lost. Funny that!

    The backstop would have meant we'd have laws applied to us that we had no right to vote on. But yeah, bang on about a few sitting days and a prorogation because that's the big picture isn't it? You're so monomaniacal you can't see the woods for the trees now.
    Parliament prorogued, but it was then declared invalid by the Supreme Court, so in fact it never happened and so you can't mention it.

    Mate. Really?
    Well you can't say Parliament was prorogued when it never was. Or if you do it is factually incorrect ;)

    Anyway point 1 was rather tongue in cheek, points 2 and 3 were more material and you ignored those so do you accept those points?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992



    Yep, he politely stood shoulder to shoulder with professed anti-Semites for 40 years without once condemning them. In fact, he very warmly called them his friends. How perfectly civil of him.

    He's apologised for the "friends" remark (it was in the context of a "welcome to this hearing" remark) as clearly misjudged.
    Heroic.
  • HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    If it makes it 5 years without a successful indy vote it's in good shape. Despite the promises not to hold one I dont see how we avoid that though - when so many support going indy the issue wont just go away.
    The Spanish government has blocked an indyref for years in Catalonia and the poll does not rule out devomax being the change of form for the UK

    The Spanish constitution blocks a referendum in Catalonia. The UK constitution does not block one in Scotland.

    It does if Westminster refuses to sanction it.

    It’s a political issue, though. The Spanish government cannot legally agree to a referendum about redrawing the size of the Spanish state. Only the Spanish people as a whole can do it. There are similar provisions in most written constitutions.

  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Am I right in thinking that most Jewish folk on PB are a lot more ambivalent about Jezza and Labour's alleged antisemitism than gentile PB Tories? Probably not a representative cross section, but then neither are PB Tories.

    I'm less than ambivalent. As a left wing Jewish (well, half Jewish) person, the last few years of politics have been pretty surreal. Seeing Ed Miliband come under a constant onslaught of antisemitic memes, then seeing the same people who cheered it on turn around and suddenly become outraged about Corbyn committing such atrocities as spending passover with left wing Jews has been truly bizarre.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    My new bestest mate Boris (we are on first name terms, apparently) has written to me today. The best bit is:

    "But recently we’ve spent far too long going nowhere, spinning round in a hamster wheel of doom."

    He does have a good facility with language, no doubt about it. And a need of my hard earned apparently.
  • isam said:

    Alistair said:

    Loving the volume of "I don't bet" posts on Political Betting Dot Com.

    In fairness, that's always been a big element of the site. Plenty come for the discussion rather than for the betting. And that's fine.

    Especially with tips like back 1/4 Remain, Lay 5/1 Boris Tory leader and pile on no election in 2019 😉
    Fairy nuff, Sam, but don't push your luck or we'll ask to see your betting records! ;)
  • OllyT said:

    Gisela Stuart has joined the labour for Boris movement

    Is this the former Labour MP and Chair of the Vote Leave campaign?

    Yes it is. I can fully understand her and the other ex-Labour MPs attacking Corbyn but how can you go from being a Labour MP to actively backing the current Tory Party?

    It doesn't help moderate ex-Labour voters like me because it feeds the Corbynistas who claim they were Tories all along. Attack Corbyn by all means but backing the Tories loses them any credibility.

    Yep, I agree - and especially a Tory party led by Boris Johnson!

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    edited November 2019
    Mr. Woolie, thanks (and one quite agrees).
  • OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Charles said:



    A section of our community is scared and you come out with fucking polls.

    Now you know how w/c, BME, LGBTQ+ and people with disabilities feel whenever there is a tory government.

    The word 'disgust' doesn't even begin the capture the way the rest of us feel about tories.
    What a load of crap.

    More Tory BME and LGBT and disabled Tory MPs than ever before, more BME and disabled people in work than in 2010, gay marriage brought in under Cameron
    Left to the Tories alone it probably wouldn't have happened, despite Cameron's support. The odds are the majority of Tory MPs after this GE will be opposed to gay marriage and there would probably be a move to overturn it except for the fact that just about every opposition MP would back up moderate Tories and oppose it.
    What f*ing garbage spouted by someone who clearly knows little about the Tory Party. We have an increasing number of Tory LGBT+ MPs and almost certainly after the GE we will have even more. Until recently our Scottish leader was openly lesbian and indeed made Party Political Broadcasts including her with her partner Jen. By all means criticise us for our policies but not for made up lies. I myself am a lifelong Tory and Chairman of the Highland HIV Patient Forum. When I cam out as having almost died in 2015 from AIDS and thanks to our brilliant NHS now living a normal life as HIV+ I received dozens of messages of support from fellow Tories and the LGBT+ wing is now one of the most powerful and highly represented within the voluntary wing of the Conservative Party!
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    Perhaps the next step will be banning Shakespeare?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    timmo said:

    After having done a little bit of canvassing over the last week as a sanity check on the 2017 Tory pledges I am now in a position to say that I think the Conservatives are in some real trouble.
    People apathetic(I know more than 2017) and some lib dem tory waiverers from that year are now 100% LD.
    I know it's a sample of only a hundred or so but you get a bit of a feeling on the doorstep. Bojo is so marmite that he pretty much gets those that dont like him determined to vote him out.

    'Anyone but Boris!'

    Spoke to a long-time friend a couple of days ago, ex-forces officer, normally solid centre-right... I was surprised how vehemently he dislikes Boris. Suspect the LDs will get his vote this time.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited November 2019

    Anorak said:

    Floater said:

    This is Labour
    It's not. It's an entirely different political party which has just inherited the name. Such a shame.
    I am trying to decide which party - Conservatives or Labour - will be the first to place an order for brown shirts for their supporters. It might be a photo finish...
    The Tory membership's aversion to the colour brown would suggest it's going to be the Labour Party.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    edited November 2019
    OllyT said:


    Perhaps the next step will be banning Shakespeare?
    Is he standing? If so, it'd be for the LDs... they should get him writing Swinson's speeches!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    edited November 2019

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    If it makes it 5 years without a successful indy vote it's in good shape. Despite the promises not to hold one I dont see how we avoid that though - when so many support going indy the issue wont just go away.
    The Spanish government has blocked an indyref for years in Catalonia and the poll does not rule out devomax being the change of form for the UK

    The Spanish constitution blocks a referendum in Catalonia. The UK constitution does not block one in Scotland.

    It does if Westminster refuses to sanction it.
    That’s actually open to debate. There is a school of thought that the ‘rule of law’ is higher than Westminster in the constitution and the principle of self-determination is included within that.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited November 2019
    Dura_Ace said:

    Anorak said:

    More French than the French, those Quebecois.
    https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1192739867316367360

    The story says the opposite of the tweet. She did demonstrate sufficient proficiency in French (she is probably at DALF C2 level) but did not complete all of her education in French. That was the reason she got knocked back.
    She published one section of her PhD thesis in English so she could submit it to a journal. Her whole course was otherwise conducted purely in french. Bonkers.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    HYUFD said:

    Royal Mail seeks injunction to stop postal strike

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50343794

    The GE needs to be postponed if there is a strike imho.
    Maybe Postal Votes could be sent by Hermes?
    I think we could get legal challenges in close result constituencies.
  • timmo said:

    After having done a little bit of canvassing over the last week as a sanity check on the 2017 Tory pledges I am now in a position to say that I think the Conservatives are in some real trouble.
    People apathetic(I know more than 2017) and some lib dem tory waiverers from that year are now 100% LD.
    I know it's a sample of only a hundred or so but you get a bit of a feeling on the doorstep. Bojo is so marmite that he pretty much gets those that dont like him determined to vote him out.

    The case for backing low turnout grows.

  • 1: Did you miss the Supreme Court case? Parliament was never prorogued so it didn't prorogue Parliament.

    ...

    You're so monomaniacal you can't see the woods for the trees now.

    If you want to do "ah, you have to stop staring at procedural minutiae and see the big picture" you probably shouldn't simultaneously try to do "you're complaining my guy attacked the process of democracy but technically the prorogation never happened since he lost his court case".
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Am I right in thinking that most Jewish folk on PB are a lot more ambivalent about Jezza and Labour's alleged antisemitism than gentile PB Tories? Probably not a representative cross section, but then neither are PB Tories.

    I'm less than ambivalent. As a left wing Jewish (well, half Jewish) person, the last few years of politics have been pretty surreal. Seeing Ed Miliband come under a constant onslaught of antisemitic memes, then seeing the same people who cheered it on turn around and suddenly become outraged about Corbyn committing such atrocities as spending passover with left wing Jews has been truly bizarre.
    Ed Milliband came after Michael Howard, didn't he?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    On topic:

    OGH's header was specifically about whether Labour's anti-semitism issues, as summarised in Maajid Nawaz's excellent Twitter thread, will affect their electoral performance compared to GE 2017. OGH argues "The fact is that this has had a profound impact".

    I agree that it should have a profound impact. What I don't know is whether it has, or will.

    Here is a map (from visitjewishlondon.com) of where Jewish people live in Britain:



    There are very, very large parts of Britain where there are not many Jews. That map is blanketed in a soft grey which indicates 100-500 Jews in a district. As someone who grew up in, and has always lived in, rural England, I spent a while trying to remember whether I have ever, in 45 years, known any (British) Jewish people. I eventually remembered I knew an emigré NYC Jew who lived in our town about ten years ago. (Mrs Capitano, on the other hand, grew up in Manchester and knew lots of Jewish kids.)

    So the question is whether Labour's anti-semitism has broken through as a factor influencing people's votes in such areas. It may be that, rightly, people are generally revolted by the party's behaviour even though it doesn't affect them or anyone they know. It may be that it just contributes as a background factor to Sleazy Broken Labour On The Slide™. Both are very plausible. But they're just hypotheses until we have any polling evidence.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865

    HYUFD said:
    I remember telling Tony Blair that he was making a mistake sending Gisela as representative to European discussions. He was a forerunner to the Theresa May theory that bringing critics into the tent was a good way of getting them on side. Went well for both of them...
    Yeah, stick with the true believers and don't listen to anyone else. That always works.
  • timmo said:

    After having done a little bit of canvassing over the last week as a sanity check on the 2017 Tory pledges I am now in a position to say that I think the Conservatives are in some real trouble.
    People apathetic(I know more than 2017) and some lib dem tory waiverers from that year are now 100% LD.
    I know it's a sample of only a hundred or so but you get a bit of a feeling on the doorstep. Bojo is so marmite that he pretty much gets those that dont like him determined to vote him out.

    Anecdata.

    A private poll of boomers that I know (and my parents know). If they are Remainy, definitely LD (my Mum was a life-long Tory voter and former councillor, and fell out with her Mum who was a Liberal councillor back in the day, and *she's* just joined the LDs).

    If they are Brexity, then the 'get Brexit done' message is scoring highly, and/or people genuinely feel there should be more people in Parliament like JRM. No, seriously.

    Nowhere have I found any support for Labour. Not one person.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    nichomar said:

    Anyone else shocked that the Catholic Church will protect nonces?

    The Roman Catholic Church will oppose calls for priests to break the seal of the confessional to report admissions of child abuse, a public inquiry was told yesterday.

    Cardinal Vincent Nichols, the Archbishop of Westminster, said the church could not accept any recommendation from the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse to require priests to disclose matters admitted to them during the sacrament.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/priests-will-not-report-child-abuse-confessions-nkp7t8mbw

    Do they say that they will, in those cases, not give absolution to the sinner?
    If the Catholic Church continues in this vein it will be easy to identify the Child abusers.

    They will be the only ones left attending services or will be conducting the services.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    timmo said:

    After having done a little bit of canvassing over the last week as a sanity check on the 2017 Tory pledges I am now in a position to say that I think the Conservatives are in some real trouble.
    People apathetic(I know more than 2017) and some lib dem tory waiverers from that year are now 100% LD.
    I know it's a sample of only a hundred or so but you get a bit of a feeling on the doorstep. Bojo is so marmite that he pretty much gets those that dont like him determined to vote him out.

    The case for backing low turnout grows.
    Sub 60% tipped at 16/1while the thread header writers tipped over 70% at short prices
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    Anorak said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Anorak said:

    More French than the French, those Quebecois.
    https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1192739867316367360

    The story says the opposite of the tweet. She did demonstrate sufficient proficiency in French (she is probably at DALF C2 level) but did not complete all of her education in French. That was the reason she got knocked back.
    She published one section of her PhD thesis in English so she could submit it to a journal. Her whole course was otherwise conducted purely in french. Bonkers.
    Is Quebec immigrant status separate from Canadian immigrant status?
  • On topic:

    OGH's header was specifically about whether Labour's anti-semitism issues, as summarised in Maajid Nawaz's excellent Twitter thread, will affect their electoral performance compared to GE 2017. OGH argues "The fact is that this has had a profound impact".

    I agree that it should have a profound impact. What I don't know is whether it has, or will.

    Here is a map (from visitjewishlondon.com) of where Jewish people live in Britain:



    There are very, very large parts of Britain where there are not many Jews. That map is blanketed in a soft grey which indicates 100-500 Jews in a district. As someone who grew up in, and has always lived in, rural England, I spent a while trying to remember whether I have ever, in 45 years, known any (British) Jewish people. I eventually remembered I knew an emigré NYC Jew who lived in our town about ten years ago. (Mrs Capitano, on the other hand, grew up in Manchester and knew lots of Jewish kids.)

    So the question is whether Labour's anti-semitism has broken through as a factor influencing people's votes in such areas. It may be that, rightly, people are generally revolted by the party's behaviour even though it doesn't affect them or anyone they know. It may be that it just contributes as a background factor to Sleazy Broken Labour On The Slide™. Both are very plausible. But they're just hypotheses until we have any polling evidence.

    We have Corbyn's approval ratings, I'm going from memory here but I think the slide corresponds pretty well to anti-semitism-related media coverage?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:



    The government literally suspended democracy when it prorogued to avoid scrutiny by the country's elected representatives. But you loved that because the trashing of our civic structures was in aid of your mad obsession.

    No it didn't. For a few reasons.

    1: Did you miss the Supreme Court case? Parliament was never prorogued so it didn't prorogue Parliament.
    2: The proposed prorogation, which never happened, was for just a few sitting days and over recess prior to a proposed Queens Speech.
    3: When prorogation happened, the Queens Speech did occur quite lawfully and guess what, the same number of sitting days were lost. Funny that!

    The backstop would have meant we'd have laws applied to us that we had no right to vote on. But yeah, bang on about a few sitting days and a prorogation because that's the big picture isn't it? You're so monomaniacal you can't see the woods for the trees now.
    Parliament prorogued, but it was then declared invalid by the Supreme Court, so in fact it never happened and so you can't mention it.

    Mate. Really?
    Well you can't say Parliament was prorogued when it never was. Or if you do it is factually incorrect ;)

    Anyway point 1 was rather tongue in cheek, points 2 and 3 were more material and you ignored those so do you accept those points?
    No, they were true, but the straight nature of their delivery led me to believe that point 1 was also serious!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    edited November 2019
    On Clinton backers

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1192676396235141122

    Also Bloomberg @ 18.5 on Betfair for the presidency is all sorts of ludicrous.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    timmo said:

    After having done a little bit of canvassing over the last week as a sanity check on the 2017 Tory pledges I am now in a position to say that I think the Conservatives are in some real trouble.
    People apathetic(I know more than 2017) and some lib dem tory waiverers from that year are now 100% LD.
    I know it's a sample of only a hundred or so but you get a bit of a feeling on the doorstep. Bojo is so marmite that he pretty much gets those that dont like him determined to vote him out.

    'Anyone but Boris!'

    Spoke to a long-time friend a couple of days ago, ex-forces officer, normally solid centre-right... I was surprised how vehemently he dislikes Boris. Suspect the LDs will get his vote this time.
    We are not in a vacuum. I dislike Boris very, very much. I dislike plenty of those who have recently gained prominence in the Conservative Party. But I will not countenance a Jeremy Corbyn-led Labour Government. I am not cute or clever enough to work out a seven dimensional tactical voting grid and hence I will vote for the Conservatives.

    How typical am I? Not sure. But I see plenty voting LD as your mate will.
  • We cannot defeat multiple devils at once.

    Perhaps if Labour can be utterly immolated, there will be a silver lining to our present clouds.

    I tend to think that everything turned to shit since that fateful day Corbyn was elected. Removing him from the scene - and humilating everything he stands for - is probably an necessary precondition to national recovery.

    I voted for Corbyn in that leadership election. How stupid I was.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BsKbwR7WXN4
    BB-63 - preserved battleship USS Missouri!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    Roger said:

    Floater said:

    Roger said:

    Could we try asking all the posters who have posted on here this morning to describe the anti semitic act by Jeremy Corbyn that has offended them on behalf of their Jewish bretheren the most? (Preferably not connected with Israel).

    You cant tie it to one person its becoming systemic

    Shame on you for trying to downplay the problem.
    If it exists its really not difficult. I'll make it easy I'll give you a few examples of racism out of the top of my head and you match them

    1. A poster showing Muslims 'flooding ' into the country with Nigel Farage standing in front of it.

    2. Quentin Letts referring to Ed Milliband's 'large conk' in the Dail Mail.

    3. Michael Howard's Are you thinking what we're thinking' featuring Gypsies.

    4. Vote Leave's broadcast on the NHS. Nice old lady couldn't see a doctor because the waiting room was full of swarthy Immigrants

    5. Theresa May's 'Immigrant's Go Home' vans driving through Golders Green.

    6. Boris Johnson's bank robber reference to all those wearing large black hats and side curls or was it Burqas?
    Number 6 a rather desperate attempt to shoe-horn some supposed anti-semitism by Boris.

    You have probably forgotten that the "bank robber" speech was the one where Boris defended the right of Muslim women to wear the burqa?
  • Hope no one on PB was affected by the flooding.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    In 2015 I placed a speculative bet in Labour most seats.

    It did not come off.

    In 2017 I placed a sure thing bet on Con majority.

    It did not come off.

    I am now considering a significant Conservative most seats bet.

    I am saying this to give PB forewarning.

    You also tipped the SCons to do very well in 2017.
    Yes, my Scotland tipping is exemplary. Once I go outside the bounds and bet on GB wide stuff my betting goes off a cliff.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696

    On topic:

    OGH's header was specifically about whether Labour's anti-semitism issues, as summarised in Maajid Nawaz's excellent Twitter thread, will affect their electoral performance compared to GE 2017. OGH argues "The fact is that this has had a profound impact".

    I agree that it should have a profound impact. What I don't know is whether it has, or will.

    Here is a map (from visitjewishlondon.com) of where Jewish people live in Britain:



    There are very, very large parts of Britain where there are not many Jews. That map is blanketed in a soft grey which indicates 100-500 Jews in a district. As someone who grew up in, and has always lived in, rural England, I spent a while trying to remember whether I have ever, in 45 years, known any (British) Jewish people. I eventually remembered I knew an emigré NYC Jew who lived in our town about ten years ago. (Mrs Capitano, on the other hand, grew up in Manchester and knew lots of Jewish kids.)

    So the question is whether Labour's anti-semitism has broken through as a factor influencing people's votes in such areas. It may be that, rightly, people are generally revolted by the party's behaviour even though it doesn't affect them or anyone they know. It may be that it just contributes as a background factor to Sleazy Broken Labour On The Slide™. Both are very plausible. But they're just hypotheses until we have any polling evidence.

    The point surely is that perceptions of institutional anti-semitism may well impact the non-Jewish vote. I certainly consider it a big factor in my (current) decision not to vote Labour, and yet I and my family are not Jewish.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    Anorak said:

    Blimey, what a cantankerous thread...

    It is.
    I was tempted to hang around and hurl a bit of invective myself, but decided to take a break.

    One a more positive note, Yorkshire appear to have made a decent signing... but could end up losing him to England duty:
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/nov/08/dawid-malan-england-new-zealand-fourth-t20-international-cricket-match-report
  • Margaret Hodge refuses to endorse Corbyn.
    Going well, isn't it?

    I'm staggered
  • It would be fantastic to see Gisela Stuart out campaigning for Tory candidates in Birmingham and John Woodcock for Tory candidates across Cumbria. Longstanding PBers will know I long hoped both would go the whole hog and cross the floor to the right side! Bumped into cousin Jamie last night in Tain and wished him the best of good luck for his re-election as our Honourable Member. He is one of the finest, most charming and polite chaps any fellow could be proud to have as a cousin, albeit a distant one and MP. Just a pity he sits for the girl guide from East Dunbartonshire's party the Liberals. If I thought there is a chance he could lose which he does and I dont, I would even lend the Liberals my vote to save him and keep out the representative of Ms Nippy Sweetie.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    On Clinton backers

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1192676396235141122

    Also Bloomberg @ 18.5 on Betfair for the presidency is all sorts of ludicrous.

    18.5? Are you shitting me, shame my back roll is invested in the GE election.

    Eighteen point fucking five. Get out of town. Lay lay lay lay lay.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    Didn't study Merchant of Venice. Must have gone to a secondary mod. Not everyone is as well educated as PBers.
  • Shades of 2005 - Michael Howard was depicted as Shylock in a Labour campaign poster.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Has anyone else had a good look at Roger Godsiff's eyebrows? Those things are ****ing amazing.

    Any need to swear?
  • Nigelb said:

    Anorak said:

    Blimey, what a cantankerous thread...

    It is.
    I was tempted to hang around and hurl a bit of invective myself, but decided to take a break.

    One a more positive note, Yorkshire appear to have made a decent signing... but could end up losing him to England duty:
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/nov/08/dawid-malan-england-new-zealand-fourth-t20-international-cricket-match-report
    I watched him at Middlesex last year. Don’t get too excited.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Nigelb said:

    Anorak said:

    Blimey, what a cantankerous thread...

    It is.
    I was tempted to hang around and hurl a bit of invective myself, but decided to take a break.

    One a more positive note, Yorkshire appear to have made a decent signing... but could end up losing him to England duty:
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/nov/08/dawid-malan-england-new-zealand-fourth-t20-international-cricket-match-report
    Seems to have calmed down after Charles went for his morning milk and biscuits.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    On topic:

    OGH's header was specifically about whether Labour's anti-semitism issues, as summarised in Maajid Nawaz's excellent Twitter thread, will affect their electoral performance compared to GE 2017. OGH argues "The fact is that this has had a profound impact".

    I agree that it should have a profound impact. What I don't know is whether it has, or will.

    Here is a map (from visitjewishlondon.com) of where Jewish people live in Britain:



    There are very, very large parts of Britain where there are not many Jews. That map is blanketed in a soft grey which indicates 100-500 Jews in a district. As someone who grew up in, and has always lived in, rural England, I spent a while trying to remember whether I have ever, in 45 years, known any (British) Jewish people. I eventually remembered I knew an emigré NYC Jew who lived in our town about ten years ago. (Mrs Capitano, on the other hand, grew up in Manchester and knew lots of Jewish kids.)

    So the question is whether Labour's anti-semitism has broken through as a factor influencing people's votes in such areas. It may be that, rightly, people are generally revolted by the party's behaviour even though it doesn't affect them or anyone they know. It may be that it just contributes as a background factor to Sleazy Broken Labour On The Slide™. Both are very plausible. But they're just hypotheses until we have any polling evidence.

    The essence of the British nature doesn't require you to know any Jews to feel that anti-semitism is A Bad Thing and not the sort of thing that should be tolerated. that holds as true in Penzance or Kendal as it does in Golders Green.

    Lots of people supported the Anti-Nazi League in the 70's. How many of them knew a Nazi?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Speaking of betting on Scotland Betfair Sportsbook, home of some of the stupidly generous SCon Scottish constituency prices ever in 2017, have now put up prices for All Scottish constituencies.

    I think their price for the LD in Ross Skye and Lochaber is too long.

    I am going through the rest now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    edited November 2019
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On Clinton backers

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1192676396235141122

    Also Bloomberg @ 18.5 on Betfair for the presidency is all sorts of ludicrous.

    18.5? Are you shitting me, shame my back roll is invested in the GE election.

    Eighteen point fucking five. Get out of town. Lay lay lay lay lay.
    I've got him laid back to the same point as Warren(*), Yang and Clinton in my Betfair presidential book

    * That's a technical lay only - I have her overbacked for the nomination.
  • timmo said:

    After having done a little bit of canvassing over the last week as a sanity check on the 2017 Tory pledges I am now in a position to say that I think the Conservatives are in some real trouble.
    People apathetic(I know more than 2017) and some lib dem tory waiverers from that year are now 100% LD.
    I know it's a sample of only a hundred or so but you get a bit of a feeling on the doorstep. Bojo is so marmite that he pretty much gets those that dont like him determined to vote him out.

    The case for backing low turnout grows.
    isam said:

    timmo said:

    After having done a little bit of canvassing over the last week as a sanity check on the 2017 Tory pledges I am now in a position to say that I think the Conservatives are in some real trouble.
    People apathetic(I know more than 2017) and some lib dem tory waiverers from that year are now 100% LD.
    I know it's a sample of only a hundred or so but you get a bit of a feeling on the doorstep. Bojo is so marmite that he pretty much gets those that dont like him determined to vote him out.

    The case for backing low turnout grows.
    Sub 60% tipped at 16/1while the thread header writers tipped over 70% at short prices
    That was my tip.
  • timmo said:

    After having done a little bit of canvassing over the last week as a sanity check on the 2017 Tory pledges I am now in a position to say that I think the Conservatives are in some real trouble.
    People apathetic(I know more than 2017) and some lib dem tory waiverers from that year are now 100% LD.
    I know it's a sample of only a hundred or so but you get a bit of a feeling on the doorstep. Bojo is so marmite that he pretty much gets those that dont like him determined to vote him out.

    'Anyone but Boris!'

    Spoke to a long-time friend a couple of days ago, ex-forces officer, normally solid centre-right... I was surprised how vehemently he dislikes Boris. Suspect the LDs will get his vote this time.
    I am constantly surprised at how viscerally people well to the right of me hate Boris Johnson and by extension the Tory party. For a certain type of moderate metropolitan centre right voter he is really toxic - not do much marmite as another brown substance that you really wouldn't want anywhere near your toast. The Lib Dems will be the principal beneficiary but some will even vote for JC (and I don't mean the Jewish Chronicle).
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533

    timmo said:

    After having done a little bit of canvassing over the last week as a sanity check on the 2017 Tory pledges I am now in a position to say that I think the Conservatives are in some real trouble.
    People apathetic(I know more than 2017) and some lib dem tory waiverers from that year are now 100% LD.
    I know it's a sample of only a hundred or so but you get a bit of a feeling on the doorstep. Bojo is so marmite that he pretty much gets those that dont like him determined to vote him out.

    'Anyone but Boris!'

    Spoke to a long-time friend a couple of days ago, ex-forces officer, normally solid centre-right... I was surprised how vehemently he dislikes Boris. Suspect the LDs will get his vote this time.
    I know several people in Surrey SW who are switching Con->LD, through a mixture of Remainery (it's one of the most pro-Remain seats in Britain) and dislike for Boris. Local Labour membership is up too, as I think is usual around election time and seems to be a national trend:

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/107845/excl-labour-membership-course-hit-half-million

    Anecdata from my Broxtowe email list (which was pretty cross-party, though only had a few who were genuinely hostile to me) shows almost everyone exactly where they were in 2017 - Tory are Tory, Labour are Labour, floaters are stroking their chin thoughtfully. Obnly 1 is voting Anna S. Some of the LibDems are not thrilled to have been told to stand down for Anna, especially as the Greens evidently didn't get the memo - some of the LibDems are snorting at the idea of working for her and heading off to help the party in Chesterfield.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    edited November 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    On Clinton backers

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1192676396235141122

    Also Bloomberg @ 18.5 on Betfair for the presidency is all sorts of ludicrous.

    Boomer !

    Thanks for pointing that out.
    For this of us who took advantage of Hillary's recent silly odds, it's effectively a free lay.

    This presidential cycle is surely the septuagenarians' last shout ?
    Though of course that might only mean that the next one is contested by octogenarians...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213

    Shades of 2005 - Michael Howard was depicted as Shylock in a Labour campaign poster.
    Wasn't that Fagin ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    edited November 2019
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    In 2015 I placed a speculative bet in Labour most seats.

    It did not come off.

    In 2017 I placed a sure thing bet on Con majority.

    It did not come off.

    I am now considering a significant Conservative most seats bet.

    I am saying this to give PB forewarning.

    You also tipped the SCons to do very well in 2017.
    Yes, my Scotland tipping is exemplary. Once I go outside the bounds and bet on GB wide stuff my betting goes off a cliff.
    So what's your forecast for Scotland in 2019?
    My guess, FWIW, is

    Tories 8 (-5)
    Labour 2 (-5)
    Lib Dem 4 (N/C)
    SNP 45 (+10)
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    Pulpstar said:

    On Clinton backers

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1192676396235141122

    Also Bloomberg @ 18.5 on Betfair for the presidency is all sorts of ludicrous.

    Hmm... pundits who get that overconfident tend to have a fall coming.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    According to this morning’s FT, Javid is effectively ruling out those (unfunded) tax cuts Boris promised, “to the anger of Number 10 advisers who wanted a platform of higher spending and lower taxes.”

    Javid is a puppet CoE, hell do as he's told
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    There is something deeply rotten in the state of British politics, whether Labour or Conservative. That Labour have an antisemitism problem is undeniable, but what makes it especially rotten is the failure of the Labour leadership to address the matter properly, and the treatment of complaints based on the degree to which the object of a complaint is an ally of Corbyn. But this rottenness is mirrored in the Conservative Party. The complaints of Islamophobia are countless and Boris promised an inquiry......which he has not delivered. As Baroness Warsi said, Islamophobia has poisoned the party.

    But beyond the casual (and not so casual) racism of Labour and Conservatives, the even bigger scandal of their treatment of sexual complaints is being ignored. Bex Bailey was raped but has still only seen the Labour report in a closed room under supervision. Ava Etamadzadeh is still waiting for any action to be taken on her complaint, years after it was made. Just as bad, the Conservative Party reinstated the whip to Andrew Griffiths and Charlie Elphicke despite the complaints being outstanding and purely for reasons of convenience.

    How either party can claim any moral authority is beyond me.
  • Good morning

    Listening to a polling expert with Adam Boulton on Sky gave me a real 'chuckle' moment

    A poll had been produced on who has had the worst start to the campaign resulting in cons 25 lab 22 lib dem 6 TBP 6 and 41 no idea. He went on to explain the voters are not interested at present and it will be some weeks before this changes

    Boulton intimated the Rees Mogg story must have cut through and his answer was absolutely not, that this is the Westminister bubble talking

    Adam Boulton looked as if he had 'chewed a wasp', so funmy
  • Pulpstar said:

    The Tories got off to a good start but Labour is now a few lengths clear in the 'Screw up campaign stakes'.

    If the retiring MPs' endorsements for Johnson were only confined to the pages of the Express and Telegraph, they would have limited impact. But when the Mirror starts giving them extensive coverage, as well as the regional press covering many key constituencies here in the Black Country, they have the potential to make more of an impact.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/former-labour-mps-ian-austin-20832715

    https://www.expressandstar.com/news/politics/general-election-2019/2019/11/07/moderates-question-whether-there-is-still-a-labour-party-worth-fighting-for/
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    HYUFD said:

    Royal Mail seeks injunction to stop postal strike

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50343794

    The GE needs to be postponed if there is a strike imho.
    I'm supposed to be starting work with them on Monday.

    Shall I be a scab?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    edited November 2019

    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Charles said:



    A section of our community is scared and you come out with fucking polls.

    Now you know how w/c, BME, LGBTQ+ and people with disabilities feel whenever there is a tory government.

    The word 'disgust' doesn't even begin the capture the way the rest of us feel about tories.
    What a load of crap.

    More Tory BME and LGBT and disabled Tory MPs than ever before, more BME and disabled people in work than in 2010, gay marriage brought in under Cameron
    Left to the Tories alone it probably wouldn't have happened, despite Cameron's support. The odds are the majority of Tory MPs after this GE will be opposed to gay marriage and there would probably be a move to overturn it except for the fact that just about every opposition MP would back up moderate Tories and oppose it.
    What f*ing garbage spouted by someone who clearly knows little about the Tory Party. We have an increasing number of Tory LGBT+ MPs and almost certainly after the GE we will have even more. Until recently our Scottish leader was openly lesbian and indeed made Party Political Broadcasts including her with her partner Jen. By all means criticise us for our policies but not for made up lies. I myself am a lifelong Tory and Chairman of the Highland HIV Patient Forum. When I cam out as having almost died in 2015 from AIDS and thanks to our brilliant NHS now living a normal life as HIV+ I received dozens of messages of support from fellow Tories and the LGBT+ wing is now one of the most powerful and highly represented within the voluntary wing of the Conservative Party!

    None of that means that a majority of those elected in December won't be anti-gay marriage. It was finally balanced at the time of the act and looking at those exiting parliament it is very likely that the balance will have tilted away.

    I'm pleased your experience has been a good one but it is anecdotal, Half of Tories opposed gay marriage, that is a fact. I know enough about the Tory party to know how their MPs voted on the gay marriage bill.

    The Tories have a Muslim COE but that doesn't mean there is no islamaphobia in the party as Baroneess Warsi, the ex Tory Chairman, is pointing out yet again today.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    Dura_Ace said:

    Has anyone else had a good look at Roger Godsiff's eyebrows? Those things are ****ing amazing.

    Any need to swear?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NuBEWYAtlNU

    Try to listen to what he is saying and not be utterly distracted by that hairy coating that wraps around his head....
  • Barnesian said:

    Didn't study Merchant of Venice. Must have gone to a secondary mod. Not everyone is as well educated as PBers.
    Mr Gideon Bull is not educated at all, it would seem. Gideon was an Israelite leader and a sort of Jewish version of Leonidas and the 300 spartans. He led 300 soldiers against a much larger army and, unlike Leonidas, he won.

    An anti-semite named Gideon? It could only happen to Labour.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Corybn is icky and historically Jews have a right to be paranoid but this is ridiculous. Their safety isn't threatened by a Labour government, they don't need to flee to Israel.
    How they feel is "ridiculous"? As I guess neither of us are in their shoes I'd be more circumspect on critiquing their reaction.
    We’d do better to understand why they feel this concern.

    I find it shaming that we should even have to ask this question in Britain in 2019.

    It makes me want to weep to think that someone with the moral clear-sightedness and empathy of Maajid Nawaz is not in Parliament whereas various stupid insensitive racist nitwits from a variety of parties will be.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    Roger said:

    Floater said:

    Roger said:

    Could we try asking all the posters who have posted on here this morning to describe the anti semitic act by Jeremy Corbyn that has offended them on behalf of their Jewish bretheren the most? (Preferably not connected with Israel).

    You cant tie it to one person its becoming systemic

    Shame on you for trying to downplay the problem.
    If it exists its really not difficult. I'll make it easy I'll give you a few examples of racism out of the top of my head and you match them

    1. A poster showing Muslims 'flooding ' into the country with Nigel Farage standing in front of it.

    2. Quentin Letts referring to Ed Milliband's 'large conk' in the Dail Mail.

    3. Michael Howard's Are you thinking what we're thinking' featuring Gypsies.

    4. Vote Leave's broadcast on the NHS. Nice old lady couldn't see a doctor because the waiting room was full of swarthy Immigrants

    5. Theresa May's 'Immigrant's Go Home' vans driving through Golders Green.

    6. Boris Johnson's bank robber reference to all those wearing large black hats and side curls or was it Burqas?
    Number 6 a rather desperate attempt to shoe-horn some supposed anti-semitism by Boris.

    You have probably forgotten that the "bank robber" speech was the one where Boris defended the right of Muslim women to wear the burqa?
    I managed to follow a lead posted by Gabs and the answer to my question is here: Can anyone add to this or is this it? (Corbyn's anti-Semitism)


    a) traditional European antisemitism flooding back into Labour (eg: East London ‘greedy capitalist’ mural that Corbyn defended)
    b) holding Israel’s Jews to higher standard than the world
    c) an obsessive focus on Israel for errors that are far worse elsewhere
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    timmo said:

    After having done a little bit of canvassing over the last week as a sanity check on the 2017 Tory pledges I am now in a position to say that I think the Conservatives are in some real trouble.
    People apathetic(I know more than 2017) and some lib dem tory waiverers from that year are now 100% LD.
    I know it's a sample of only a hundred or so but you get a bit of a feeling on the doorstep. Bojo is so marmite that he pretty much gets those that dont like him determined to vote him out.

    The case for backing low turnout grows.
    isam said:

    timmo said:

    After having done a little bit of canvassing over the last week as a sanity check on the 2017 Tory pledges I am now in a position to say that I think the Conservatives are in some real trouble.
    People apathetic(I know more than 2017) and some lib dem tory waiverers from that year are now 100% LD.
    I know it's a sample of only a hundred or so but you get a bit of a feeling on the doorstep. Bojo is so marmite that he pretty much gets those that dont like him determined to vote him out.

    The case for backing low turnout grows.
    Sub 60% tipped at 16/1while the thread header writers tipped over 70% at short prices
    That was my tip.
    Great minds think alike! (But beware a lack of cognitive diversity)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Charles said:



    A section of our community is scared and you come out with fucking polls.

    Now you know how w/c, BME, LGBTQ+ and people with disabilities feel whenever there is a tory government.

    The word 'disgust' doesn't even begin the capture the way the rest of us feel about tories.
    What a load of crap.

    More Tory BME and LGBT and disabled Tory MPs than ever before, more BME and disabled people in work than in 2010, gay marriage brought in under Cameron
    Left to the Tories alone it probably wouldn't have happened, despite Cameron's support. The odds are the majority of Tory MPs after this GE will be opposed to gay marriage and there would probably be a move to overturn it except for the fact that just about every opposition MP would back up moderate Tories and oppose it.
    What f*ing garbage spouted by someone who clearly knows little about the Tory Party. We have an increasing number of Tory LGBT+ MPs and almost certainly after the GE we will have even more. Until recently our Scottish leader was openly lesbian and indeed made Party Political Broadcasts including her with her partner Jen. By all means criticise us for our policies but not for made up lies. I myself am a lifelong Tory and Chairman of the Highland HIV Patient Forum. When I cam out as having almost died in 2015 from AIDS and thanks to our brilliant NHS now living a normal life as HIV+ I received dozens of messages of support from fellow Tories and the LGBT+ wing is now one of the most powerful and highly represented within the voluntary wing of the Conservative Party!
    None of that means that a majority of those elected in December won't be anti-gay marriage. It was finally balanced at the time of the act and looking at those exiting parliament it is very likely that the balance will have tilted away.

    I'm pleased your experience has been a good one but it is anecdotal, Half of Tories opposed gay marriage, that is a fact.

    The Tories have a Muslim COE but that doesn't mean there is no islamaphobia in the party as Baroneess Warsi, the ex Tory Chairman, is pointing out yet again today.
    I'd put up money that after the election, 80% of Tory MPs would not vote to repeal gay marriage. It has rapidly become accepted.
  • PierrotPierrot Posts: 112

    On topic:

    OGH's header was specifically about whether Labour's anti-semitism issues, as summarised in Maajid Nawaz's excellent Twitter thread, will affect their electoral performance compared to GE 2017. OGH argues "The fact is that this has had a profound impact".

    I agree that it should have a profound impact. What I don't know is whether it has, or will.

    Here is a map (from visitjewishlondon.com) of where Jewish people live in Britain:



    There are very, very large parts of Britain where there are not many Jews. That map is blanketed in a soft grey which indicates 100-500 Jews in a district. As someone who grew up in, and has always lived in, rural England, I spent a while trying to remember whether I have ever, in 45 years, known any (British) Jewish people. I eventually remembered I knew an emigré NYC Jew who lived in our town about ten years ago. (Mrs Capitano, on the other hand, grew up in Manchester and knew lots of Jewish kids.)

    So the question is whether Labour's anti-semitism has broken through as a factor influencing people's votes in such areas. It may be that, rightly, people are generally revolted by the party's behaviour even though it doesn't affect them or anyone they know. It may be that it just contributes as a background factor to Sleazy Broken Labour On The Slide™. Both are very plausible. But they're just hypotheses until we have any polling evidence.

    The essence of the British nature doesn't require you to know any Jews to feel that anti-semitism is A Bad Thing and not the sort of thing that should be tolerated. that holds as true in Penzance or Kendal as it does in Golders Green.

    Lots of people supported the Anti-Nazi League in the 70's. How many of them knew a Nazi?
    A better question would be how many of the white ANL members knew a black or Asian person, and the answer is most of them. Which isn't to say most of them wouldn't have been anti-Nazi anyway.

    I doubt the "Labour is anti-Semitic" slur will affect voting much in more than a handful of seats.

  • isam said:

    timmo said:

    After having done a little bit of canvassing over the last week as a sanity check on the 2017 Tory pledges I am now in a position to say that I think the Conservatives are in some real trouble.
    People apathetic(I know more than 2017) and some lib dem tory waiverers from that year are now 100% LD.
    I know it's a sample of only a hundred or so but you get a bit of a feeling on the doorstep. Bojo is so marmite that he pretty much gets those that dont like him determined to vote him out.

    The case for backing low turnout grows.
    isam said:

    timmo said:

    After having done a little bit of canvassing over the last week as a sanity check on the 2017 Tory pledges I am now in a position to say that I think the Conservatives are in some real trouble.
    People apathetic(I know more than 2017) and some lib dem tory waiverers from that year are now 100% LD.
    I know it's a sample of only a hundred or so but you get a bit of a feeling on the doorstep. Bojo is so marmite that he pretty much gets those that dont like him determined to vote him out.

    The case for backing low turnout grows.
    Sub 60% tipped at 16/1while the thread header writers tipped over 70% at short prices
    That was my tip.
    Great minds think alike! (But beware a lack of cognitive diversity)
    It was certainly CR's tip, although I wasn't far behind him.

    So that's three of us then? Has to bomb. :(
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    timmo said:

    After having done a little bit of canvassing over the last week as a sanity check on the 2017 Tory pledges I am now in a position to say that I think the Conservatives are in some real trouble.
    People apathetic(I know more than 2017) and some lib dem tory waiverers from that year are now 100% LD.
    I know it's a sample of only a hundred or so but you get a bit of a feeling on the doorstep. Bojo is so marmite that he pretty much gets those that dont like him determined to vote him out.

    Anecdata.

    A private poll of boomers that I know (and my parents know). If they are Remainy, definitely LD (my Mum was a life-long Tory voter and former councillor, and fell out with her Mum who was a Liberal councillor back in the day, and *she's* just joined the LDs).

    If they are Brexity, then the 'get Brexit done' message is scoring highly, and/or people genuinely feel there should be more people in Parliament like JRM. No, seriously.

    Nowhere have I found any support for Labour. Not one person.
    They're hiding from you. They think all Tories believe Labour supporters are anti semites so they keep their voting intention between themselves and the voting booth
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    TOPPING said:

    timmo said:

    After having done a little bit of canvassing over the last week as a sanity check on the 2017 Tory pledges I am now in a position to say that I think the Conservatives are in some real trouble.
    People apathetic(I know more than 2017) and some lib dem tory waiverers from that year are now 100% LD.
    I know it's a sample of only a hundred or so but you get a bit of a feeling on the doorstep. Bojo is so marmite that he pretty much gets those that dont like him determined to vote him out.

    'Anyone but Boris!'

    Spoke to a long-time friend a couple of days ago, ex-forces officer, normally solid centre-right... I was surprised how vehemently he dislikes Boris. Suspect the LDs will get his vote this time.
    We are not in a vacuum. I dislike Boris very, very much. I dislike plenty of those who have recently gained prominence in the Conservative Party. But I will not countenance a Jeremy Corbyn-led Labour Government. I am not cute or clever enough to work out a seven dimensional tactical voting grid and hence I will vote for the Conservatives.

    How typical am I? Not sure. But I see plenty voting LD as your mate will.
    I got an email from Boris this morning. (I'm a supporter of four different political parties and a member of one) so I get all their supporters' material.

    Boris says "The Conservatives can win a majority government. No other party can."

    You know what - he's not lying. Labour cannot get a majority. You can safely vote LibDem. A minority Labour government will achieve a second referendum and then will be VONC'd.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Charles said:



    A section of our community is scared and you come out with fucking polls.

    Now you know how w/c, BME, LGBTQ+ and people with disabilities feel whenever there is a tory government.

    The word 'disgust' doesn't even begin the capture the way the rest of us feel about tories.
    What a load of crap.

    More Tory BME and LGBT and disabled Tory MPs than ever before, more BME and disabled people in work than in 2010, gay marriage brought in under Cameron
    Left to the Tories alone it probably wouldn't have happened, despite Cameron's support. The odds are the majority of Tory MPs after this GE will be opposed to gay marriage and there would probably be a move to overturn it except for the fact that just about every opposition MP would back up moderate Tories and oppose it.
    What f*ing garbage spouted by someone who clearly knows little about the Tory Party. We have an increasing number of Tory LGBT+ MPs and almost certainly after the GE we will have even more. Until recently our Scottish leader was openly lesbian and indeed made Party Political Broadcasts including her with her partner Jen. By all means criticise us for our policies but not for made up lies. I myself am a lifelong Tory and Chairman of the Highland HIV Patient Forum. When I cam out as having almost died in 2015 from AIDS and thanks to our brilliant NHS now living a normal life as HIV+ I received dozens of messages of support from fellow Tories and the LGBT+ wing is now one of the most powerful and highly represented within the voluntary wing of the Conservative Party!
    None of that means that a majority of those elected in December won't be anti-gay marriage. It was finally balanced at the time of the act and looking at those exiting parliament it is very likely that the balance will have tilted away.

    I'm pleased your experience has been a good one but it is anecdotal, Half of Tories opposed gay marriage, that is a fact.

    The Tories have a Muslim COE but that doesn't mean there is no islamaphobia in the party as Baroneess Warsi, the ex Tory Chairman, is pointing out yet again today.
    I'd put up money that after the election, 80% of Tory MPs would not vote to repeal gay marriage. It has rapidly become accepted.
    That's not quite the same thing. Like hunting, they will know it can't be repealed but that is very different to actually supporting it.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited November 2019

    Good morning

    Listening to a polling expert with Adam Boulton on Sky gave me a real 'chuckle' moment

    A poll had been produced on who has had the worst start to the campaign resulting in cons 25 lab 22 lib dem 6 TBP 6 and 41 no idea. He went on to explain the voters are not interested at present and it will be some weeks before this changes

    Boulton intimated the Rees Mogg story must have cut through and his answer was absolutely not, that this is the Westminister bubble talking

    Adam Boulton looked as if he had 'chewed a wasp', so funmy

    Adam Boulton looking like he's chewed a wasp is his default face to be fair.

    Oh and good morrow PB :D
  • isam said:

    timmo said:

    After having done a little bit of canvassing over the last week as a sanity check on the 2017 Tory pledges I am now in a position to say that I think the Conservatives are in some real trouble.
    People apathetic(I know more than 2017) and some lib dem tory waiverers from that year are now 100% LD.
    I know it's a sample of only a hundred or so but you get a bit of a feeling on the doorstep. Bojo is so marmite that he pretty much gets those that dont like him determined to vote him out.

    The case for backing low turnout grows.
    Sub 60% tipped at 16/1while the thread header writers tipped over 70% at short prices
    Did they?

    I’m fairly certain they advised caution until the date and circumstances of the election were known.

    I think the value might be in the highest band, 75% and over, because if Brexit is seen to be in danger (or being potentially stopped) I can see turnout surging as both sides rush to the polling stations to ensure their side ‘wins’. But this isn’t a market I’ll be betting heavily on at this time, when the date of the election and the status of Brexit on election day is confirmed then I’ll stake a bit more (odds permitting.)

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/10/27/betting-on-the-turnout-at-the-next-general-election/

    PS - Is 6/1 short odds, especially as it was the joint second highest price?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited November 2019
    On topic: Well quite. How on earth anyone of integrity could vote for Corbyn's Labour is a mystery.

    On the other hand: have we discussed the excruciating video of Boris 'explaining' how trade between NI and GB would work under his deal with the EU?

    https://twitter.com/ManufacturingNI/status/1192564837345353728

    It is absolutely gob-smacking. For a start he sounds drunk. He's verging on completely incoherent. And inasmuch as you can understand what he's saying, it bears no relation to the official government interpretation of how the deal would work.

    How in the name of heaven did the Conservative Party saddle itself, and us, with this guy?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    In 2015 I placed a speculative bet in Labour most seats.

    It did not come off.

    In 2017 I placed a sure thing bet on Con majority.

    It did not come off.

    I am now considering a significant Conservative most seats bet.

    I am saying this to give PB forewarning.

    You also tipped the SCons to do very well in 2017.
    Yes, my Scotland tipping is exemplary. Once I go outside the bounds and bet on GB wide stuff my betting goes off a cliff.
    So what's your forecast for Scotland in 2019?
    My guess, FWIW, is

    Tories 8 (-5)
    Labour 2 (-5)
    Lib Dem 4 (N/C)
    SNP 45 (+10)
    I'm holding off my first official forecast until we see a Scotland only poll but so far I'm thinking

    Tories 5 (-8)
    Labour 1 (-6)
    Libe Dem 5 (+1)
    SNP 48 (+13)

    But I am starting to wonder if Angus will be a surprise Conservative hold. It's basically the only seat that showed an actual SNP to Con movement at the last election rather than fake movement caused by churn.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On Clinton backers

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1192676396235141122

    Also Bloomberg @ 18.5 on Betfair for the presidency is all sorts of ludicrous.

    18.5? Are you shitting me, shame my back roll is invested in the GE election.

    Eighteen point fucking five. Get out of town. Lay lay lay lay lay.
    All we want now is for the Michelle Obama rumours to start up again.
  • isam said:

    timmo said:

    After having done a little bit of canvassing over the last week as a sanity check on the 2017 Tory pledges I am now in a position to say that I think the Conservatives are in some real trouble.
    People apathetic(I know more than 2017) and some lib dem tory waiverers from that year are now 100% LD.
    I know it's a sample of only a hundred or so but you get a bit of a feeling on the doorstep. Bojo is so marmite that he pretty much gets those that dont like him determined to vote him out.

    The case for backing low turnout grows.
    isam said:

    timmo said:

    After having done a little bit of canvassing over the last week as a sanity check on the 2017 Tory pledges I am now in a position to say that I think the Conservatives are in some real trouble.
    People apathetic(I know more than 2017) and some lib dem tory waiverers from that year are now 100% LD.
    I know it's a sample of only a hundred or so but you get a bit of a feeling on the doorstep. Bojo is so marmite that he pretty much gets those that dont like him determined to vote him out.

    The case for backing low turnout grows.
    Sub 60% tipped at 16/1while the thread header writers tipped over 70% at short prices
    That was my tip.
    Great minds think alike! (But beware a lack of cognitive diversity)
    It was certainly CR's tip, although I wasn't far behind him.

    So that's three of us then? Has to bomb. :(
    What worries me is that the legendary AndyJS is on the other side.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,719
    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On Clinton backers

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1192676396235141122

    Also Bloomberg @ 18.5 on Betfair for the presidency is all sorts of ludicrous.

    18.5? Are you shitting me, shame my back roll is invested in the GE election.

    Eighteen point fucking five. Get out of town. Lay lay lay lay lay.
    All we want now is for the Michelle Obama rumours to start up again.
    Joan Rivers isn't around to spread them anymore.
  • Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    In 2015 I placed a speculative bet in Labour most seats.

    It did not come off.

    In 2017 I placed a sure thing bet on Con majority.

    It did not come off.

    I am now considering a significant Conservative most seats bet.

    I am saying this to give PB forewarning.

    You also tipped the SCons to do very well in 2017.
    Yes, my Scotland tipping is exemplary. Once I go outside the bounds and bet on GB wide stuff my betting goes off a cliff.
    So what's your forecast for Scotland in 2019?
    My guess, FWIW, is

    Tories 8 (-5)
    Labour 2 (-5)
    Lib Dem 4 (N/C)
    SNP 45 (+10)
    I'm holding off my first official forecast until we see a Scotland only poll but so far I'm thinking

    Tories 5 (-8)
    Labour 1 (-6)
    Libe Dem 5 (+1)
    SNP 48 (+13)

    But I am starting to wonder if Angus will be a surprise Conservative hold. It's basically the only seat that showed an actual SNP to Con movement at the last election rather than fake movement caused by churn.
    Both your predictions seem plausible.

    I think the SCons could hold anything up to 10 of their seats.

    There could be some surprise churn too - where they gain one or two new seats, and lose one or two others.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited November 2019
    Pierrot said:

    On topic:

    OGH's header was specifically about whether Labour's anti-semitism issues, as summarised in Maajid Nawaz's excellent Twitter thread, will affect their electoral performance compared to GE 2017. OGH argues "The fact is that this has had a profound impact".

    I agree that it should have a profound impact. What I don't know is whether it has, or will.

    Here is a map (from visitjewishlondon.com) of where Jewish people live in Britain:



    There are very, very large parts of Britain where there are not many Jews. That map is blanketed in a soft grey which indicates 100-500 Jews in a district. As someone who grew up in, and has always lived in, rural England, I spent a while trying to remember whether I have ever, in 45 years, known any (British) Jewish people. I eventually remembered I knew an emigré NYC Jew who lived in our town about ten years ago. (Mrs Capitano, on the other hand, grew up in Manchester and knew lots of Jewish kids.)

    So the question is whether Labour's anti-semitism has broken through as a factor influencing people's votes in such areas. It may be that, rightly, people are generally revolted by the party's behaviour even though it doesn't affect them or anyone they know. It may be that it just contributes as a background factor to Sleazy Broken Labour On The Slide™. Both are very plausible. But they're just hypotheses until we have any polling evidence.

    The essence of the British nature doesn't require you to know any Jews to feel that anti-semitism is A Bad Thing and not the sort of thing that should be tolerated. that holds as true in Penzance or Kendal as it does in Golders Green.

    Lots of people supported the Anti-Nazi League in the 70's. How many of them knew a Nazi?
    A better question would be how many of the white ANL members knew a black or Asian person, and the answer is most of them. Which isn't to say most of them wouldn't have been anti-Nazi anyway.

    I doubt the "Labour is anti-Semitic" slur will affect voting much in more than a handful of seats.

    The debate about anti-Semitism in Labour is beyond a slur. Alluding to it as a slur is, in my opinion, deflecting from a serious issue that is not under any semblance of control.

    There is adequate evidence that the processes to deal with it are not robust or independent. If they were the problem would be gone by now.
  • Good morning all, just popping in briefly.

    I'm afraid that Margaret Hodge can't have it all ways. If she stands as a Labour MP in a party run by Corbyn she is endorsing him as PM. To state otherwise is frankly an insult to her voters.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    timmo said:

    After having done a little bit of canvassing over the last week as a sanity check on the 2017 Tory pledges I am now in a position to say that I think the Conservatives are in some real trouble.
    People apathetic(I know more than 2017) and some lib dem tory waiverers from that year are now 100% LD.
    I know it's a sample of only a hundred or so but you get a bit of a feeling on the doorstep. Bojo is so marmite that he pretty much gets those that dont like him determined to vote him out.

    Which constituency?
    Sutton and Cheam and Car and Wallington
  • Pulpstar said:

    Shades of 2005 - Michael Howard was depicted as Shylock in a Labour campaign poster.
    Wasn't that Fagin ?
    Dracula? Personally I thought he did a decent job for his Party, but then I was never a stakeholder.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:



    What don’t you get?

    The Jewish community is terrified and nearly half are considering leaving the country.

    Of course there are some racists in the Tory party - as in every party - but they have a Muslim heritage Chancellor (I believe he’s agnostic?)

    The Muslim community may not vote Tory, but they are not afraid of them.

    How very kind of you to appoint yourself as spokesperson for the entire Muslim community in the UK. I'm sure they'll be very happy to have you in the role.
    What?

    I’m not appointing myself spokesman for anyone. I’ve not seen data suggesting Muslims are afraid of a Tory government

    But fuck you. Our Jewish fellow citizens are being attacked and you want to make cute debating points.

    I recognise your name so I guess you’ve been around for awhile. You’ll know that I don’t get riled up by much. This makes me furious.
    You don't get furious about the government suspending democracy.

    You chortle when race-baiting is used to win a referendum so that you can profit from the chaos.

    You're very selective in the causes of your fury. Motes and beams, motes and beams.
    I was furious about the idea of the government suspending democracy. That's why I opposed the backstop.

    The government never suspended democracy though. The backstop was defeated and we now have a general election.
    The government literally suspended democracy when it prorogued to avoid scrutiny by the country's elected representatives. But you loved that because the trashing of our civic structures was in aid of your mad obsession.
    Prorogation is always a "suspension of democracy". Do you think we should never use prorogation?

    I'm not sure what was avoiding scrutiny, given there was nothing to scrutinise until the EU met and came up with Boris's Deal. As was said at the time of the 4-days-longer-than-usual prorogation. But if you want to descend into your own hystrical world where it equates with burning the Reichstag, .....
    Charles: I’ve corrected you several times on the “4 days longer than usual” nonsense. This is simply incorrect. Don’t keep repeating it. It’s flat out wrong. The Tories sought to suspend democracy and avoid scrutiny, something they have been doing repeatedly since Boris became PM. This is not the mark of a party or a leadership which truly - in its bones - understands what democracy is about.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On Clinton backers

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1192676396235141122

    Also Bloomberg @ 18.5 on Betfair for the presidency is all sorts of ludicrous.

    18.5? Are you shitting me, shame my back roll is invested in the GE election.

    Eighteen point fucking five. Get out of town. Lay lay lay lay lay.
    All we want now is for the Michelle Obama rumours to start up again.
    Today is filing date for Alabama so we will see who is actually potentially in the contest.

    Bloomberg seems to have polled 6% in a single Change research poll - only 2% behind...…… John Kerry in that one.
  • Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On Clinton backers

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1192676396235141122

    Also Bloomberg @ 18.5 on Betfair for the presidency is all sorts of ludicrous.

    18.5? Are you shitting me, shame my back roll is invested in the GE election.

    Eighteen point fucking five. Get out of town. Lay lay lay lay lay.
    All we want now is for the Michelle Obama rumours to start up again.
    If I was unethical I could write a thread saying it has to be Michelle Obama.

    But pumping and dumping is a crime right?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2019

    isam said:

    timmo said:

    After having done a little bit of canvassing over the last week as a sanity check on the 2017 Tory pledges I am now in a position to say that I think the Conservatives are in some real trouble.
    People apathetic(I know more than 2017) and some lib dem tory waiverers from that year are now 100% LD.
    I know it's a sample of only a hundred or so but you get a bit of a feeling on the doorstep. Bojo is so marmite that he pretty much gets those that dont like him determined to vote him out.

    The case for backing low turnout grows.
    Sub 60% tipped at 16/1while the thread header writers tipped over 70% at short prices
    Did they?

    I’m fairly certain they advised caution until the date and circumstances of the election were known.

    I think the value might be in the highest band, 75% and over, because if Brexit is seen to be in danger (or being potentially stopped) I can see turnout surging as both sides rush to the polling stations to ensure their side ‘wins’. But this isn’t a market I’ll be betting heavily on at this time, when the date of the election and the status of Brexit on election day is confirmed then I’ll stake a bit more (odds permitting.)

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/10/27/betting-on-the-turnout-at-the-next-general-election/

    PS - Is 6/1 short odds, especially as it was the joint second highest price?
    Oh fair enough, “shorter prices” at a higher level than I remembered.

    Reads to me like someone tipping a small bet at 6/1 over 75%, and saying they’re going to top up later. Not really ‘advising caution’, just a tip.
  • PierrotPierrot Posts: 112
    Barnesian said:

    TOPPING said:

    timmo said:

    After having done a little bit of canvassing over the last week as a sanity check on the 2017 Tory pledges I am now in a position to say that I think the Conservatives are in some real trouble.
    People apathetic(I know more than 2017) and some lib dem tory waiverers from that year are now 100% LD.
    I know it's a sample of only a hundred or so but you get a bit of a feeling on the doorstep. Bojo is so marmite that he pretty much gets those that dont like him determined to vote him out.

    'Anyone but Boris!'

    Spoke to a long-time friend a couple of days ago, ex-forces officer, normally solid centre-right... I was surprised how vehemently he dislikes Boris. Suspect the LDs will get his vote this time.
    We are not in a vacuum. I dislike Boris very, very much. I dislike plenty of those who have recently gained prominence in the Conservative Party. But I will not countenance a Jeremy Corbyn-led Labour Government. I am not cute or clever enough to work out a seven dimensional tactical voting grid and hence I will vote for the Conservatives.

    How typical am I? Not sure. But I see plenty voting LD as your mate will.
    I got an email from Boris this morning. (I'm a supporter of four different political parties and a member of one) so I get all their supporters' material.

    Boris says "The Conservatives can win a majority government. No other party can."

    You know what - he's not lying. Labour cannot get a majority. You can safely vote LibDem. A minority Labour government will achieve a second referendum and then will be VONC'd.
    Then what next in the 14-day period? Another Tory-LD coalition? But what if it didn't have a majority? Or another GE? If the latter, I wouldn't fancy the LDs' chances of keeping many of their seats. Nor could they hope for much from the review of the FTPA due later next year. The more LD seats, the more chaos.
  • On topic: Well quite. How on earth anyone of integrity could vote for Corbyn's Labour is a mystery.

    On the other hand: have we discussed the excruciating video of Boris 'explaining' how trade between NI and GB would work under his deal with the EU?

    https://twitter.com/ManufacturingNI/status/1192564837345353728

    It is absolutely gob-smacking. For a start he sounds drunk. He's verging on completely incoherent. And inasmuch as you can understand what he's saying, it bears no relation to the official government interpretation of how the deal would work.

    How in the name of heaven did the Conservative Party saddle itself, and us, with this guy?

    The two things have the same root cause. The parties gave too much power to their members.

    Usually giving members of private organisations plenty of control over their organisation is a good idea. But when that organisation is one side of a de-facto duopoly on government power thanks to FPTP, it's catastrophic.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696

    On topic: Well quite. How on earth anyone of integrity could vote for Corbyn's Labour is a mystery.

    On the other hand: have we discussed the excruciating video of Boris 'explaining' how trade between NI and GB would work under his deal with the EU?

    https://twitter.com/ManufacturingNI/status/1192564837345353728

    It is absolutely gob-smacking. For a start he sounds drunk. He's verging on completely incoherent. And inasmuch as you can understand what he's saying, it bears no relation to the official government interpretation of how the deal would work.

    How in the name of heaven did the Conservative Party saddle itself, and us, with this guy?

    Good grief!

    I hope this gets the wider publicity it deserves.
  • timmo said:

    After having done a little bit of canvassing over the last week as a sanity check on the 2017 Tory pledges I am now in a position to say that I think the Conservatives are in some real trouble.
    People apathetic(I know more than 2017) and some lib dem tory waiverers from that year are now 100% LD.
    I know it's a sample of only a hundred or so but you get a bit of a feeling on the doorstep. Bojo is so marmite that he pretty much gets those that dont like him determined to vote him out.

    'Anyone but Boris!'

    Spoke to a long-time friend a couple of days ago, ex-forces officer, normally solid centre-right... I was surprised how vehemently he dislikes Boris. Suspect the LDs will get his vote this time.
    I am constantly surprised at how viscerally people well to the right of me hate Boris Johnson and by extension the Tory party. For a certain type of moderate metropolitan centre right voter he is really toxic - not do much marmite as another brown substance that you really wouldn't want anywhere near your toast. The Lib Dems will be the principal beneficiary but some will even vote for JC (and I don't mean the Jewish Chronicle).
    He's particularly unpopular in London, where he was once a pro-Remain pro-business Mayor.

    I know it's an unfashionable view, but I really do think he could come unstuck in Uxbridge whatever the national result.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Has anyone else had a good look at Roger Godsiff's eyebrows? Those things are ****ing amazing.

    Any need to swear?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NuBEWYAtlNU

    Try to listen to what he is saying and not be utterly distracted by that hairy coating that wraps around his head....
    I agree with what he says and the privet bushes that he has for eyebrows can be sorted out with a bit of trimming and a good waxing, although I do not think he would suit a delicately arch eyebrow ;)


  • No it didn't. For a few reasons.

    1: Did you miss the Supreme Court case? Parliament was never prorogued so it didn't prorogue Parliament.
    2: The proposed prorogation, which never happened, was for just a few sitting days and over recess prior to a proposed Queens Speech.
    3: When prorogation happened, the Queens Speech did occur quite lawfully and guess what, the same number of sitting days were lost. Funny that!

    The backstop would have meant we'd have laws applied to us that we had no right to vote on. But yeah, bang on about a few sitting days and a prorogation because that's the big picture isn't it? You're so monomaniacal you can't see the woods for the trees now.

    In the handful of extra days of "scrutiny" that we got, all parliament achieved of note was to get under an already very low bar as members indulged in scenes which further trashed the reputation of the Commons. Observers from afar were left scratching their heads and wondering "what was all that fuss about?".
This discussion has been closed.