Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB’s GE17 performance is misleading as a tactical voting guid

1234568»

Comments

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    AndyJS said:

    YouGov regional survey:

    North East:

    Lab 32% (-23)
    Con 26% (-8)
    BRX 19%
    LD 15% (+10)
    Grn 7% (+6)

    North West:

    Con 33% (-3)
    Lab 30% (-25)
    LD 17% (+15)
    BRX 14%
    Grn 5% (+4)

    Yorkshire & The Humber:

    Con 34% (-7)
    Lab 29% (-20)
    LD 16% (+11)
    BRX 14%
    Grn 7% (+6)

    Tory Landslide if correct
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865

    DavidL said:

    And the regional breakdowns of their polling: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-

    Labour vote almost totally collapsing in a lot of places, specifically the East Midlands, West Midlands and the North West where the Tories are now ahead. They are going to lose a lot of seats in these places unless there is a big change.

    Are they accounting for Don't Knows properly? The total vote for everyone is down.

    It's not. The LDs are up quite strongly as are TBP (compared to UKIP) and the Greens.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    AndyJS said:

    YouGov regional survey:

    North East:

    Lab 32% (-23)
    Con 26% (-8)
    BRX 19%
    LD 15% (+10)
    Grn 7% (+6)

    North West:

    Con 33% (-3)
    Lab 30% (-25)
    LD 17% (+15)
    BRX 14%
    Grn 5% (+4)

    Yorkshire & The Humber:

    Con 34% (-7)
    Lab 29% (-20)
    LD 16% (+11)
    BRX 14%
    Grn 7% (+6)

    Tory Landslide if correct
    BRX at 19,14,14 too
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,721

    On topic: Well quite. How on earth anyone of integrity could vote for Corbyn's Labour is a mystery.

    On the other hand: have we discussed the excruciating video of Boris 'explaining' how trade between NI and GB would work under his deal with the EU?

    https://twitter.com/ManufacturingNI/status/1192564837345353728

    It is absolutely gob-smacking. For a start he sounds drunk. He's verging on completely incoherent. And inasmuch as you can understand what he's saying, it bears no relation to the official government interpretation of how the deal would work.

    How in the name of heaven did the Conservative Party saddle itself, and us, with this guy?

    Good grief!

    I hope this gets the wider publicity it deserves.
    I rather enjoyed it. Thanks for sharing!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    AndyJS said:

    YouGov regional survey (continued):

    London:

    Lab 39% (-16)
    Con 29% (-4)
    LD 19% (+10)
    BRX 6%
    Grn 5% (+3)

    South East:

    Con 41% (-13)
    LD 23% (+12)
    Lab 16% (-13)
    BRX 12%
    Grn 6% (+3)

    South West:

    Con 41% (-10)
    LD 21% (+6)
    Lab 17% (-12)
    BRX 13%
    Grn 7% (+5)

    A 12.5% swing to the LDs in the South East is going to hurt.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613

    DavidL said:

    And the regional breakdowns of their polling: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-

    Labour vote almost totally collapsing in a lot of places, specifically the East Midlands, West Midlands and the North West where the Tories are now ahead. They are going to lose a lot of seats in these places unless there is a big change.

    Are they accounting for Don't Knows properly? The total vote for everyone is down.

    Looked at the cross tabs - they are excluding them. I think this is the issue in many of the polls - the don't knows are disporportionately people who don't have Brexit policy as a priority, and I believe are also disproportionately women 2017 Labour voters with doubts about Corbyn.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,719
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    And the regional breakdowns of their polling: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-

    Labour vote almost totally collapsing in a lot of places, specifically the East Midlands, West Midlands and the North West where the Tories are now ahead. They are going to lose a lot of seats in these places unless there is a big change.

    Are they accounting for Don't Knows properly? The total vote for everyone is down.

    It's not. The LDs are up quite strongly as are TBP (compared to UKIP) and the Greens.
    Yes you're right. I should have done the maths instead of just eyeballing the graphs.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2019
    Change in Labour share by region, YouGov regional survey:

    NW -25%
    NE -23%
    WM -20%
    YH -20%
    Wales -20%
    EM -19%
    E -16%
    GL -16%
    Scotland -15%
    SE -13%
    SW -12%
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865

    AndyJS said:

    YouGov regional survey:

    North East:

    Lab 32% (-23)
    Con 26% (-8)
    BRX 19%
    LD 15% (+10)
    Grn 7% (+6)

    North West:

    Con 33% (-3)
    Lab 30% (-25)
    LD 17% (+15)
    BRX 14%
    Grn 5% (+4)

    Yorkshire & The Humber:

    Con 34% (-7)
    Lab 29% (-20)
    LD 16% (+11)
    BRX 14%
    Grn 7% (+6)

    Tory Landslide if correct
    And if you factor in the question mark about how many BRX candidates there is actually going to be....
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,499
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Charles said:



    A section of our community is scared and you come out with fucking polls.

    Now you know how w/c, BME, LGBTQ+ and people with disabilities feel whenever there is a tory government.

    The word 'disgust' doesn't even begin the capture the way the rest of us feel about tories.
    What a load of crap.

    More Tory BME and LGBT and disabled Tory MPs than ever before, more BME and disabled people in work than in 2010, gay marriage brought in under Cameron
    Only on the back of Labour and lib dem votes. Tories were split virtually 50.50 on it. Nasty little bigots that they are.
    I suppose Catholics and evangelical Christians and Muslims and Hindus and Orthodox Jews are all nasty little bigots too as they believe marriage should only be between one man and one woman for life, like those 50% of Tory MPs? Opposing gay marriage does not make you a bigot as such
    It does.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    Anorak said:


    Labour vote almost totally collapsing in a lot of places, specifically the East Midlands, West Midlands and the North West where the Tories are now ahead. They are going to lose a lot of seats in these places unless there is a big change.

    Bloody hell.

    The YouGov polls have been bad for Labour thjroughout, as we know. I'd suggest some methodological caution in the regional breakdowns, since what they seem to be doing is amalgamating a lot of subsamples in different polls taken over two weeks. I'd be surprised if they're balanced samples. Since the figures are all awful to different degrees, it doesn't change the general conclusions, but beware of over-reliance on the detail.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    DavidL said:

    AndyJS said:

    YouGov regional survey (continued):

    London:

    Lab 39% (-16)
    Con 29% (-4)
    LD 19% (+10)
    BRX 6%
    Grn 5% (+3)

    South East:

    Con 41% (-13)
    LD 23% (+12)
    Lab 16% (-13)
    BRX 12%
    Grn 6% (+3)

    South West:

    Con 41% (-10)
    LD 21% (+6)
    Lab 17% (-12)
    BRX 13%
    Grn 7% (+5)

    A 12.5% swing to the LDs in the South East is going to hurt.
    Indicates LD gains in Winchester, Guildford, etc.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:

    Roger? BJO?
    https://twitter.com/Freedland/status/1192799276449107968Mahmood, a solicitor for 12 years, said that ‘somebody needs to shoot all the Israeli Zionists dead then send their bodies to America as a present for Obama and his Zionist pals’.

    Ahhh, that's why he was a candidate for Corbyn's Labour.

    It is one thing to miss a tweet from 10 years ago, but how the hell do you miss that in your background checks...unless you actually dont give a shit anymore.
    Pretty much the definition of institutional racism.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 931
    There is 5 weeks to go, do not get judge or get excited until Monday the 9th December.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    PaulM said:


    Looked at the cross tabs - they are excluding them. I think this is the issue in many of the polls - the don't knows are disporportionately people who don't have Brexit policy as a priority, and I believe are also disproportionately women 2017 Labour voters with doubts about Corbyn.

    My gut feeling is that Labour probably lead with the DK's.

    Shy/embarrassed Corbyn supporters.
  • AndyJS said:

    DavidL said:

    AndyJS said:

    YouGov regional survey (continued):

    London:

    Lab 39% (-16)
    Con 29% (-4)
    LD 19% (+10)
    BRX 6%
    Grn 5% (+3)

    South East:

    Con 41% (-13)
    LD 23% (+12)
    Lab 16% (-13)
    BRX 12%
    Grn 6% (+3)

    South West:

    Con 41% (-10)
    LD 21% (+6)
    Lab 17% (-12)
    BRX 13%
    Grn 7% (+5)

    A 12.5% swing to the LDs in the South East is going to hurt.
    Indicates LD gains in Winchester, Guildford, etc.
    I am surprised winchester didnt go lib dem in the way bath did at the last GE. It ticks all the boxes for remainer surge.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    AndyJS said:

    DavidL said:

    AndyJS said:

    YouGov regional survey (continued):

    London:

    Lab 39% (-16)
    Con 29% (-4)
    LD 19% (+10)
    BRX 6%
    Grn 5% (+3)

    South East:

    Con 41% (-13)
    LD 23% (+12)
    Lab 16% (-13)
    BRX 12%
    Grn 6% (+3)

    South West:

    Con 41% (-10)
    LD 21% (+6)
    Lab 17% (-12)
    BRX 13%
    Grn 7% (+5)

    A 12.5% swing to the LDs in the South East is going to hurt.
    Indicates LD gains in Winchester, Guildford, etc.
    Yes. But @Animal_pb 's point is a good one. In most of the SE significant reductions in the Tory vote simply makes their vote more efficient with relatively few casualties leaving more votes elsewhere where it counts more.
  • I'm not at all convinced that the BXP is going to get anything like the 11% or so which the current polls show. That's only slightly higher than the 9% or so which the opinion polls were reporting for UKIP at this stage of the campaign; they ended up with 1.9% on the night. Admittedly they weren't standing everywhere, but the BXP seems to be losing candidates and I expect many of their efforts will be purely token.

    If I'm right, where will they go?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Charles said:



    A section of our community is scared and you come out with fucking polls.

    Now you know how w/c, BME, LGBTQ+ and people with disabilities feel whenever there is a tory government.

    The word 'disgust' doesn't even begin the capture the way the rest of us feel about tories.
    What a load of crap.

    More Tory BME and LGBT and disabled Tory MPs than ever before, more BME and disabled people in work than in 2010, gay marriage brought in under Cameron
    Only on the back of Labour and lib dem votes. Tories were split virtually 50.50 on it. Nasty little bigots that they are.
    I suppose Catholics and evangelical Christians and Muslims and Hindus and Orthodox Jews are all nasty little bigots too as they believe marriage should only be between one man and one woman for life, like those 50% of Tory MPs? Opposing gay marriage does not make you a bigot as such
    It does.
    I rather liked Elizabeth Warren's response. Men who don't believe in marrying men should find a woman. If they can.
  • We've lost count.

    Perhaps it would be easier to report on any new Labour candidates who DON'T have an anti-Semitic history?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,499

    The Tory party, bereft of ideas, returns to its last zinger that had a dribble of traction. Nicola pinching a wallet full of fine English banknotes next?

    https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/1192778822569070592?s=20

    That might encourage more people south of the border to vote Labour. Nicola is a very able figure. By far the most effective party leader in the UK (and I don't mean to damn her by faint praise).
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,499
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Charles said:



    A section of our community is scared and you come out with fucking polls.

    Now you know how w/c, BME, LGBTQ+ and people with disabilities feel whenever there is a tory government.

    The word 'disgust' doesn't even begin the capture the way the rest of us feel about tories.
    What a load of crap.

    More Tory BME and LGBT and disabled Tory MPs than ever before, more BME and disabled people in work than in 2010, gay marriage brought in under Cameron
    Only on the back of Labour and lib dem votes. Tories were split virtually 50.50 on it. Nasty little bigots that they are.
    I suppose Catholics and evangelical Christians and Muslims and Hindus and Orthodox Jews are all nasty little bigots too as they believe marriage should only be between one man and one woman for life, like those 50% of Tory MPs? Opposing gay marriage does not make you a bigot as such
    It does.
    I rather liked Elizabeth Warren's response. Men who don't believe in marrying men should find a woman. If they can.
    Yes, that was genius.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    theakes said:

    There is 5 weeks to go, do not get judge or get excited until Monday the 9th December.

    Why what's going on then ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited November 2019
    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    Roger? BJO?
    https://twitter.com/Freedland/status/1192799276449107968Mahmood, a solicitor for 12 years, said that ‘somebody needs to shoot all the Israeli Zionists dead then send their bodies to America as a present for Obama and his Zionist pals’.

    Ahhh, that's why he was a candidate for Corbyn's Labour.

    It is one thing to miss a tweet from 10 years ago, but how the hell do you miss that in your background checks...unless you actually dont give a shit anymore.
    Pretty much the definition of institutional racism.
    And the scary thing is now it hardly makes makes any headlines. There was 100x coverage of JRM insensitive comments and Mr keep your pants on than Ms Sultana and stuff like this.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    When was the baseline for the YouGov surveys? One point is that the BXP vote-share seems constant.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,564
    OllyT said:

    The duopoly have been using our dire electoral system to try to blackmail everyone into voting for one or other of them for generations. It will never change as they both benefit enormously from it.

    Our system is broken but we are in a Catch-22 as the system will always deliver us governments that benefit from the system so will never change it.
    We had a chance to start changing the system to something a bit more nuanced in 2011 and the UK declined to take it. Sometimes you only get one chance. Leaving the EU may be another example.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865

    I'm not at all convinced that the BXP is going to get anything like the 11% or so which the current polls show. That's only slightly higher than the 9% or so which the opinion polls were reporting for UKIP at this stage of the campaign; they ended up with 1.9% on the night. Admittedly they weren't standing everywhere, but the BXP seems to be losing candidates and I expect many of their efforts will be purely token.

    If I'm right, where will they go?

    Some will not vote but I agree that they are more likely to poll half of their current level with half of the reduction going Tory. Should be good for another 3%. Did Farage not stand down his candidates in the 60 Unite to Remain seats yesterday for a start?
  • YouGov Poll of 11,500 Voters Puts Tories 14% Ahead of Labour https://t.co/6XgAqYbv63 https://t.co/jVkSjygR6R
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,719

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Charles said:



    A section of our community is scared and you come out with fucking polls.

    Now you know how w/c, BME, LGBTQ+ and people with disabilities feel whenever there is a tory government.

    The word 'disgust' doesn't even begin the capture the way the rest of us feel about tories.
    What a load of crap.

    More Tory BME and LGBT and disabled Tory MPs than ever before, more BME and disabled people in work than in 2010, gay marriage brought in under Cameron
    Only on the back of Labour and lib dem votes. Tories were split virtually 50.50 on it. Nasty little bigots that they are.
    I suppose Catholics and evangelical Christians and Muslims and Hindus and Orthodox Jews are all nasty little bigots too as they believe marriage should only be between one man and one woman for life, like those 50% of Tory MPs? Opposing gay marriage does not make you a bigot as such
    It does.
    I rather liked Elizabeth Warren's response. Men who don't believe in marrying men should find a woman. If they can.
    Yes, that was genius.
    After watching that clip a couple of times I think the question was planted because the way it was phrased directly teed up her reply, but it was very well done. Warren has great timing.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,564

    AndyJS said:

    YouGov regional survey:

    North East:

    Lab 32% (-23)
    Con 26% (-8)
    BRX 19%
    LD 15% (+10)
    Grn 7% (+6)

    North West:

    Con 33% (-3)
    Lab 30% (-25)
    LD 17% (+15)
    BRX 14%
    Grn 5% (+4)

    Yorkshire & The Humber:

    Con 34% (-7)
    Lab 29% (-20)
    LD 16% (+11)
    BRX 14%
    Grn 7% (+6)

    Tory Landslide if correct

    Still not favourites to win. No Overall Majority is odds on.

  • DavidL said:

    I'm not at all convinced that the BXP is going to get anything like the 11% or so which the current polls show. That's only slightly higher than the 9% or so which the opinion polls were reporting for UKIP at this stage of the campaign; they ended up with 1.9% on the night. Admittedly they weren't standing everywhere, but the BXP seems to be losing candidates and I expect many of their efforts will be purely token.

    If I'm right, where will they go?

    Some will not vote but I agree that they are more likely to poll half of their current level with half of the reduction going Tory. Should be good for another 3%. Did Farage not stand down his candidates in the 60 Unite to Remain seats yesterday for a start?
    Also the fact that he's not standing himself must be a major blow to the morale of candidates and any activists keen to campaign for 'real Brexit'. If he can't be bothered, or doesn't think it's worth it, why should they?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    When was the baseline for the YouGov surveys? One point is that the BXP vote-share seems constant.

    What do you mean, baseline?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    So are these regional polls fully balanced subsamples of a larger poll?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    RobD said:

    When was the baseline for the YouGov surveys? One point is that the BXP vote-share seems constant.

    What do you mean, baseline?
    Chgs. w/ GE2017 result. Or when??
  • NEW THREAD

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Anorak said:
    Weighting the regional results by the electorate? Doesn't seem too outrageous.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    RobD said:

    When was the baseline for the YouGov surveys? One point is that the BXP vote-share seems constant.

    What do you mean, baseline?
    Chgs. w/ GE2017 result. Or when??
    The 2017 election.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Anorak said:
    He hasn't distorted the figures, those are the GB totals for the regional survey. It's the same data.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,564

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    Roger? BJO?
    https://twitter.com/Freedland/status/1192799276449107968Mahmood, a solicitor for 12 years, said that ‘somebody needs to shoot all the Israeli Zionists dead then send their bodies to America as a present for Obama and his Zionist pals’.

    Ahhh, that's why he was a candidate for Corbyn's Labour.

    It is one thing to miss a tweet from 10 years ago, but how the hell do you miss that in your background checks...unless you actually dont give a shit anymore.
    Pretty much the definition of institutional racism.
    And the scary thing is now it hardly makes makes any headlines. There was 100x coverage of JRM insensitive comments and Mr keep your pants on than Ms Sultana and stuff like this.
    Anecdotally Mr keep your pants on has quite bit of support from unwoke parents who think that negotiating the real world requires a certain amount of common sense. Again anecdotally juries seem to think the same. You would discern little of this from much of the media.

  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    algarkirk said:

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    Roger? BJO?
    https://twitter.com/Freedland/status/1192799276449107968Mahmood, a solicitor for 12 years, said that ‘somebody needs to shoot all the Israeli Zionists dead then send their bodies to America as a present for Obama and his Zionist pals’.

    Ahhh, that's why he was a candidate for Corbyn's Labour.

    It is one thing to miss a tweet from 10 years ago, but how the hell do you miss that in your background checks...unless you actually dont give a shit anymore.
    Pretty much the definition of institutional racism.
    And the scary thing is now it hardly makes makes any headlines. There was 100x coverage of JRM insensitive comments and Mr keep your pants on than Ms Sultana and stuff like this.
    Anecdotally Mr keep your pants on has quite bit of support from unwoke parents who think that negotiating the real world requires a certain amount of common sense. Again anecdotally juries seem to think the same. You would discern little of this from much of the media.

    Of course if someone criticizes the degree of anti-Semitism among more conservative Muslims, you are called Islamophobic.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    AndyJS said:

    Anorak said:
    He hasn't distorted the figures, those are the GB totals for the regional survey. It's the same data.
    But latest YouGov tracker has 11% lead, not 14%.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,843

    We've lost count.

    Perhaps it would be easier to report on any new Labour candidates who DON'T have an anti-Semitic history?
    I think so far in the last two days we've had:
    Views on Jews
    - Gordon (stood down)
    - Clacton (stood down)
    - Coventry S (clinging on, improbably)
    - Harlow (no pressure to stand down yet)
    - Birmingham Hall Green (2) (no pressure to stand down yet)

    Plus Pudsey, which was basically just an inept defence of Coventry S candidate, above and has probably blown over already

    We might also include Chris Williamson, Derby North, in the above list, although that was really just an administrative clearing-up exercise from a previous antisemtic episiode.

    Views on Transsexuals:
    - Edinburgh SW (stood down - for advocating the death of people insufficiently keen on transsexuals)
    - Birmingham Hall Green (1) (Roger Godsdiff, sitting) (stood down - for being insufficiently keen on transsexuals)

    Other:
    Bassetlaw (deselected, for, we think, being insufficiently left wing)


    Any others?
  • Anorak said:

    AndyJS said:

    Anorak said:
    He hasn't distorted the figures, those are the GB totals for the regional survey. It's the same data.
    But latest YouGov tracker has 11% lead, not 14%.
    It's not the tracker.
  • Cookie said:

    AndyJS said:

    DavidL said:

    And the regional breakdowns of their polling: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-

    Labour vote almost totally collapsing in a lot of places, specifically the East Midlands, West Midlands and the North West where the Tories are now ahead. They are going to lose a lot of seats in these places unless there is a big change.

    I've always thought the West and East Midlands are going to be particularly bad for Labour at this election.
    West Midlands, perhaps. East Midlands looks stickier: the urban seats all now look comfortable for Labour, and from the constituency poll Gedling is also looking a hold. They may lose one or two of the coalfield seats.
    If you apply the Yougov regional polls using UNS, Lab would be left with 16 seats in the whole of the Midlands - 7 in Brum, 3 in Leicester, 3 in Nottingham, 1 in Derby, 1 in Coventry, and Warley.
  • Anorak said:

    AndyJS said:

    Anorak said:
    He hasn't distorted the figures, those are the GB totals for the regional survey. It's the same data.
    But latest YouGov tracker has 11% lead, not 14%.
    The udnerlying data is from a week ago, when I beleive tha national tracker was indeed 14%.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    From your link:

    The "pigs might fly" poster, with the caption "the day the Tory sums add up", was one of a selection of posters which visitors to Labour's website were asked to pick their favourite. Together with the "Fagin" poster , it was taken down last night after losing out to a poster featuring Mr Howard and Mr Letwin holding a blackboard reading "2+2 5".
  • Cookie said:

    AndyJS said:

    DavidL said:

    And the regional breakdowns of their polling: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-

    Labour vote almost totally collapsing in a lot of places, specifically the East Midlands, West Midlands and the North West where the Tories are now ahead. They are going to lose a lot of seats in these places unless there is a big change.

    I've always thought the West and East Midlands are going to be particularly bad for Labour at this election.
    West Midlands, perhaps. East Midlands looks stickier: the urban seats all now look comfortable for Labour, and from the constituency poll Gedling is also looking a hold. They may lose one or two of the coalfield seats.
    If you apply the Yougov regional polls using UNS, Lab would be left with 16 seats in the whole of the Midlands - 7 in Brum, 3 in Leicester, 3 in Nottingham, 1 in Derby, 1 in Coventry, and Warley.
    What odds would you like?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Mr. Charles, an English Parliament with powers corresponding directly to Holyrood is the natural step.

    I get why the left don't want it (they'd start out with a difficult electoral task, although Scotland has proven this situation can change quickly) but the reluctance of the Conservatives is more perplexing.

    I would tend to break England down (which I know you would dislike)

    Wessex, Mercia, East Anglia, London and Northumbria would create a broad balance of sensible regions of meaningful size.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited November 2019
    Charles said:

    Mr. Charles, an English Parliament with powers corresponding directly to Holyrood is the natural step.

    I get why the left don't want it (they'd start out with a difficult electoral task, although Scotland has proven this situation can change quickly) but the reluctance of the Conservatives is more perplexing.

    I would tend to break England down (which I know you would dislike)

    Wessex, Mercia, East Anglia, London and Northumbria would create a broad balance of sensible regions of meaningful size.
    Broadly agree, but Northumbria should be split into three. And I’d give Cornwall its own assembly (or stannary, if you will), because they were never really part of Wessex.
  • Anorak said:


    Labour vote almost totally collapsing in a lot of places, specifically the East Midlands, West Midlands and the North West where the Tories are now ahead. They are going to lose a lot of seats in these places unless there is a big change.

    Bloody hell.
    The YouGov polls have been bad for Labour thjroughout, as we know. I'd suggest some methodological caution in the regional breakdowns, since what they seem to be doing is amalgamating a lot of subsamples in different polls taken over two weeks. I'd be surprised if they're balanced samples. Since the figures are all awful to different degrees, it doesn't change the general conclusions, but beware of over-reliance on the detail.

    Well, you backed him.
  • I'm not at all convinced that the BXP is going to get anything like the 11% or so which the current polls show. That's only slightly higher than the 9% or so which the opinion polls were reporting for UKIP at this stage of the campaign; they ended up with 1.9% on the night. Admittedly they weren't standing everywhere, but the BXP seems to be losing candidates and I expect many of their efforts will be purely token.

    If I'm right, where will they go?

    I’m getting increasingly aggressive on the downside of BXP.

    I keep hearing very solid Leavers who voted BXP in May mention reflexively how they don’t want to split the Leave vote.

    That really is cutting through.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,488
    He's been a busy boy getting around the entire population.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Charles said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Floater said:

    Roger said:

    Could we try asking all the posters who have posted on here this morning to describe the anti semitic act by Jeremy Corbyn that has offended them on behalf of their Jewish bretheren the most? (Preferably not connected with Israel).

    You cant tie it to one person its becoming systemic

    Shame on you for trying to downplay the problem.
    If it exists its really not difficult. I'll make it easy I'll give you a few examples of racism out of the top of my head and you match them

    1. A poster showing Muslims 'flooding ' into the country with Nigel Farage standing in front of it.

    2. Quentin Letts referring to Ed Milliband's 'large conk' in the Dail Mail.

    3. Michael Howard's Are you thinking what we're thinking' featuring Gypsies.

    4. Vote Leave's broadcast on the NHS. Nice old lady couldn't see a doctor because the waiting room was full of swarthy Immigrants

    5. Theresa May's 'Immigrant's Go Home' vans driving through Golders Green.

    6. Boris Johnson's bank robber reference to all those wearing large black hats and side curls or was it Burqas?
    Number 6 a rather desperate attempt to shoe-horn some supposed anti-semitism by Boris.

    You have probably forgotten that the "bank robber" speech was the one where Boris defended the right of Muslim women to wear the burqa?
    I managed to follow a lead posted by Gabs and the answer to my question is here: Can anyone add to this or is this it? (Corbyn's anti-Semitism)


    a) traditional European antisemitism flooding back into Labour (eg: East London ‘greedy capitalist’ mural that Corbyn defended)
    b) holding Israel’s Jews to higher standard than the world
    c) an obsessive focus on Israel for errors that are far worse elsewhere
    You’ve lifted those bullets from MaajidNawaz’s twitter. They were about institutional anti-semitism not Corbyn specifically

    You also missed out

    d) supporting or otherwise praising genocidal, Jew-murdering terrorist groups
    So that is the definitive list of Labour's institutional anti Semitism? 'Jew murdering' is too emotive and rather what I was hoping to avoid. But it's as well to list the accusations otherwise like the thread it just reads as a nasty smear campaign
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    AndyJS said:

    DavidL said:

    AndyJS said:

    YouGov regional survey (continued):

    London:

    Lab 39% (-16)
    Con 29% (-4)
    LD 19% (+10)
    BRX 6%
    Grn 5% (+3)

    South East:

    Con 41% (-13)
    LD 23% (+12)
    Lab 16% (-13)
    BRX 12%
    Grn 6% (+3)

    South West:

    Con 41% (-10)
    LD 21% (+6)
    Lab 17% (-12)
    BRX 13%
    Grn 7% (+5)

    A 12.5% swing to the LDs in the South East is going to hurt.
    Indicates LD gains in Winchester, Guildford, etc.
    Winchester and Lewes, Guildford would go due to a combination of the swing and the local Conservative meltdown (and Milton standing as an indie). Eastleigh may well go due to swing plus local LD machine plus Mims Davies meltdown. I will also watch Woking and Mole Valley with interest. Woking has long had some LD strength and the Conservatives have had a Mole Valley meltdown, aided by a local plan which is as popular as a Doinic Grieve visit to the ERG and, possibly, the most invisible MP in the UK. Woking and Mole Valley are unlikely but not impossible.
This discussion has been closed.