politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB’s GE17 performance is misleading as a tactical voting guid
Comments
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"If I were unethical..."TheScreamingEagles said:
If I was unethical I could write a thread saying it has to be Michelle Obama.Nigelb said:
All we want now is for the Michelle Obama rumours to start up again.Alistair said:
18.5? Are you shitting me, shame my back roll is invested in the GE election.Pulpstar said:On Clinton backers
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1192676396235141122
Also Bloomberg @ 18.5 on Betfair for the presidency is all sorts of ludicrous.
Eighteen point fucking five. Get out of town. Lay lay lay lay lay.
But pumping and dumping is a crime right?
Or maybe that's just my subjunctive opinion.
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Pissed as a newt.Richard_Nabavi said:On topic: Well quite. How on earth anyone of integrity could vote for Corbyn's Labour is a mystery.
On the other hand: have we discussed the excruciating video of Boris 'explaining' how trade between NI and GB would work under his deal with the EU?
https://twitter.com/ManufacturingNI/status/1192564837345353728
It is absolutely gob-smacking. For a start he sounds drunk. He's verging on completely incoherent. And inasmuch as you can understand what he's saying, it bears no relation to the official government interpretation of how the deal would work.
How in the name of heaven did the Conservative Party saddle itself, and us, with this guy?0 -
[Paul Hogan voice] That's not Islamophobia.OllyT said:The Tories have a Muslim COE but that doesn't mean there is no islamaphobia in the party as Baroneess Warsi, the ex Tory Chairman, is pointing out yet again today.
THAT'S Islamophobia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_re-education_camps
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Impressive!Richard_Nabavi said:On topic: Well quite. How on earth anyone of integrity could vote for Corbyn's Labour is a mystery.
On the other hand: have we discussed the excruciating video of Boris 'explaining' how trade between NI and GB would work under his deal with the EU?
https://twitter.com/ManufacturingNI/status/1192564837345353728
It is absolutely gob-smacking. For a start he sounds drunk. He's verging on completely incoherent. And inasmuch as you can understand what he's saying, it bears no relation to the official government interpretation of how the deal would work.
How in the name of heaven did the Conservative Party saddle itself, and us, with this guy?0 -
The last 24 hours has been a torrid time for labour and in particular Corbyn
Ian Austin and John Woodcock later joined by John Mann openly advocate voting for Boris. Tom Watson walks out leaving moderate labour mps marooned in Corbyn's labour party. Three candidates sacked for anti semitic remarks and Margaret Hodge refusing to endorse Corbyn as leader
The media are full of it and this issue is not going away no matter how much Corbyn supporters try to deflect it to other parties. It is now the narrative for the labour party and something will have to give
No matter the outcome between Boris and the lib dems labour are in a very bad and dark place. They will lose seats and labour mps returned to the HOC who are on the moderate wing will have a choice, support the leader they despise, or join with the lib dems creating a new centre left party, thereby stranding Corbyn and relegating his part of labour into third place behind a revitalised left leaning social democratic party that would enjoy wide support.
Also this election may be morrphing from Brexit into stop Corbyn any cost
Fantasy, maybe but impossible, no0 -
I agree but would also point out that both Atlee and Major did the same thing for similar reasons. Actually in the case of Major it was worse as he was trying to avoid questioning and party embarrassment over cash for questions.Cyclefree said:
Charles: I’ve corrected you several times on the “4 days longer than usual” nonsense. This is simply incorrect. Don’t keep repeating it. It’s flat out wrong. The Tories sought to suspend democracy and avoid scrutiny, something they have been doing repeatedly since Boris became PM. This is not the mark of a party or a leadership which truly - in its bones - understands what democracy is about.
That in no way excuses Johnson but does highlight the hypocrisy of some people (not least John Major himself) in claiming this was some sort of unprecedented attack on democracy.0 -
Maybe. What's your opinion of that Boris NI video Big_G?Big_G_NorthWales said:The last 24 hours has been a torrid time for labour and in particular Corbyn
Ian Austin and John Woodcock later joined by John Mann openly advocate voting for Boris. Tom Watson walks out leaving moderate labour mps marooned in Corbyn's labour party. Three candidates sacked for anti semitic remarks and Margaret Hodge refusing to endorse Corbyn as leader
The media are full of it and this issue is not going away no matter how much Corbyn supporters try to deflect it to other parties. It is now the narrative for the labour party and something will have to give
No matter the outcome between Boris and the lib dems labour are in a very bad and dark place. They will lose seats and labour mps returned to the HOC who are on the moderate wing will have a choice, support the leader they despise, or join with the lib dems creating a new centre left party, thereby stranding Corbyn and relegating his part of labour into third place behind a revitalised left leaning social democratic party that would enjoy wide support.
Also this election may be morrphing from Brexit into stop Corbyn any cost
Fantasy, maybe but impossible, no0 -
However, at least some LibDems are still covertly working for Soubry in Broxtowe.NickPalmer said:
Anecdata from my Broxtowe email list (which was pretty cross-party, though only had a few who were genuinely hostile to me) shows almost everyone exactly where they were in 2017 - Tory are Tory, Labour are Labour, floaters are stroking their chin thoughtfully. Obnly 1 is voting Anna S. Some of the LibDems are not thrilled to have been told to stand down for Anna, especially as the Greens evidently didn't get the memo - some of the LibDems are snorting at the idea of working for her and heading off to help the party in Chesterfield.
https://order-order.com/2019/11/07/anna-soubrys-lying-leaver-remain-campaigning-lib-dem/0 -
Candidate churn rate is massive. The PB Candidate Vetting Express Service has never been more needed.1
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I said the same on here a while back and was assured that such a travesty could not happen. He has a 5,000 majority but just two years previous he had an 11,000 majority. That is a big drop for 2 yearsPeter_the_Punter said:I know it's an unfashionable view, but I really do think he could come unstuck in Uxbridge whatever the national result.
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Look at last nights local election result in Croydon..the labour tribal vote is still thereRoger said:
They're hiding from you. They think all Tories believe Labour supporters are anti semites so they keep their voting intention between themselves and the voting boothbookseller said:
Anecdata.timmo said:After having done a little bit of canvassing over the last week as a sanity check on the 2017 Tory pledges I am now in a position to say that I think the Conservatives are in some real trouble.
People apathetic(I know more than 2017) and some lib dem tory waiverers from that year are now 100% LD.
I know it's a sample of only a hundred or so but you get a bit of a feeling on the doorstep. Bojo is so marmite that he pretty much gets those that dont like him determined to vote him out.
A private poll of boomers that I know (and my parents know). If they are Remainy, definitely LD (my Mum was a life-long Tory voter and former councillor, and fell out with her Mum who was a Liberal councillor back in the day, and *she's* just joined the LDs).
If they are Brexity, then the 'get Brexit done' message is scoring highly, and/or people genuinely feel there should be more people in Parliament like JRM. No, seriously.
Nowhere have I found any support for Labour. Not one person.0 -
ABC (Anyone But Corbyn) Election!Big_G_NorthWales said:The last 24 hours has been a torrid time for labour and in particular Corbyn
Ian Austin and John Woodcock later joined by John Mann openly advocate voting for Boris. Tom Watson walks out leaving moderate labour mps marooned in Corbyn's labour party. Three candidates sacked for anti semitic remarks and Margaret Hodge refusing to endorse Corbyn as leader
The media are full of it and this issue is not going away no matter how much Corbyn supporters try to deflect it to other parties. It is now the narrative for the labour party and something will have to give
No matter the outcome between Boris and the lib dems labour are in a very bad and dark place. They will lose seats and labour mps returned to the HOC who are on the moderate wing will have a choice, support the leader they despise, or join with the lib dems creating a new centre left party, thereby stranding Corbyn and relegating his part of labour into third place behind a revitalised left leaning social democratic party that would enjoy wide support.
Also this election may be morrphing from Brexit into stop Corbyn any cost
Fantasy, maybe but impossible, no
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At last a view of Johnson's that I can wholeheartedly agree with - from the Beeb this morning:
'The prime minister says his Brexit withdrawal agreement is "a great deal" for Northern Ireland because it keeps "access to the single market".'
And of course it will help to unify the North and the South.
Gotta go now. Thanks for the chat, and the kind comments.
PtP0 -
You've got to assume the Labour MPs supporting Boris has cut through. What with Gisela and to an extent Hodge joining them this morning, it looks really bad for the left.
Perhaps it is worth the Tory press holding back information on some of the dodgy Labour candidates, it might be more effective to expose their murky pasts after the deadline for candidates has ended (and the same for Labour with Tory candidates).0 -
Anyone But Corbyn + Anyone But Boris = Jo!GIN1138 said:
ABC (Anyone But Corbyn) Election!Big_G_NorthWales said:The last 24 hours has been a torrid time for labour and in particular Corbyn
Ian Austin and John Woodcock later joined by John Mann openly advocate voting for Boris. Tom Watson walks out leaving moderate labour mps marooned in Corbyn's labour party. Three candidates sacked for anti semitic remarks and Margaret Hodge refusing to endorse Corbyn as leader
The media are full of it and this issue is not going away no matter how much Corbyn supporters try to deflect it to other parties. It is now the narrative for the labour party and something will have to give
No matter the outcome between Boris and the lib dems labour are in a very bad and dark place. They will lose seats and labour mps returned to the HOC who are on the moderate wing will have a choice, support the leader they despise, or join with the lib dems creating a new centre left party, thereby stranding Corbyn and relegating his part of labour into third place behind a revitalised left leaning social democratic party that would enjoy wide support.
Also this election may be morrphing from Brexit into stop Corbyn any cost
Fantasy, maybe but impossible, no 0 -
I don't understand Berfair Sportsbook prices in East Lothian
SNP 1.9
Lab 4.0
Con 2.62
Surely the Lab and Conservative prices have been flipped?0 -
Many PBers, yours truly included, took great heed of the weekly forecasts issued by Prof Stephen Fisher (aka Elections, Etc.) ahead of the 2017 GE, which like many other forecasts at the time did not work out well and about which Prof. Fisher intends to comment further in due course, as well as commenting on the experience of pollvote.com's combined forecast of the last U.S> Presidential elections. For our forthcoming GE on 12 December, he is joined by John Kenny of Southampton University and Rosalind Shorrocks of Manchester University.
Their first combined forecast, based on averaging the Betting Markets, Complex Models and Simple Models was issued two days ago on 6 November and shows the following number of seats being won by each party:
Betting Complex Simple Average
Markets Models Models
Con 338 364 358 353
Lab 212 185 189 195
LibDem 43 43 29 38
Brexit 3 0 0 1
Greens 2 1 1 1
SNP 50 50 50 50
PlaidCymru 5 4 4 4
Con Maj 27 78 66 57
The Conservative majority numbers shown above appear to be based on a 650 member HoC. If, as previously, Sinn Fein members decide not to take up their seats in the chamber, the majority in each case would accordingly increase by approximately 7.
Edit - Apols for the poor spacing of the 4 columns of figures in the table above.
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Wasn't there a Genesis song called "ABACAB"?Benpointer said:
Anyone But Corbyn + Anyone But Boris = Jo!GIN1138 said:
ABC (Anyone But Corbyn) Election!Big_G_NorthWales said:The last 24 hours has been a torrid time for labour and in particular Corbyn
Ian Austin and John Woodcock later joined by John Mann openly advocate voting for Boris. Tom Watson walks out leaving moderate labour mps marooned in Corbyn's labour party. Three candidates sacked for anti semitic remarks and Margaret Hodge refusing to endorse Corbyn as leader
The media are full of it and this issue is not going away no matter how much Corbyn supporters try to deflect it to other parties. It is now the narrative for the labour party and something will have to give
No matter the outcome between Boris and the lib dems labour are in a very bad and dark place. They will lose seats and labour mps returned to the HOC who are on the moderate wing will have a choice, support the leader they despise, or join with the lib dems creating a new centre left party, thereby stranding Corbyn and relegating his part of labour into third place behind a revitalised left leaning social democratic party that would enjoy wide support.
Also this election may be morrphing from Brexit into stop Corbyn any cost
Fantasy, maybe but impossible, no
Anyone But Antisemtic Corbyn And Boris
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I doubt it will change any minds.Brom said:You've got to assume the Labour MPs supporting Boris has cut through. What with Gisela and to an extent Hodge joining them this morning, it looks really bad for the left.
Perhaps it is worth the Tory press holding back information on some of the dodgy Labour candidates, it might be more effective to expose their murky pasts after the deadline for candidates has ended (and the same for Labour with Tory candidates).0 -
Surely the killer line is his selling the deal to NI on the basis that it is a great deal for them because they retain free access to the single market. By which logic it is a bad deal for the rest of us because we don't.Richard_Nabavi said:On topic: Well quite. How on earth anyone of integrity could vote for Corbyn's Labour is a mystery.
On the other hand: have we discussed the excruciating video of Boris 'explaining' how trade between NI and GB would work under his deal with the EU?
https://twitter.com/ManufacturingNI/status/1192564837345353728
It is absolutely gob-smacking. For a start he sounds drunk. He's verging on completely incoherent. And inasmuch as you can understand what he's saying, it bears no relation to the official government interpretation of how the deal would work.
How in the name of heaven did the Conservative Party saddle itself, and us, with this guy?
I am not sure he is pissed by the way, I have interacted with him in a very similar kind of setting and this is just what he's like. He shouts and gesticulates a lot so that the delivery distracts from the content. He is a walking embodiment of privilege, promoted beyond his abilities to a degree only possible in dysfunctional societies like ours.0 -
I haven't see it to be fair. Not been too clever this last three days but I would expect he would be doing what Boris does. Bluster and incoherence, but that is BorisBenpointer said:
Maybe. What's your opinion of that Boris NI video Big_G?Big_G_NorthWales said:The last 24 hours has been a torrid time for labour and in particular Corbyn
Ian Austin and John Woodcock later joined by John Mann openly advocate voting for Boris. Tom Watson walks out leaving moderate labour mps marooned in Corbyn's labour party. Three candidates sacked for anti semitic remarks and Margaret Hodge refusing to endorse Corbyn as leader
The media are full of it and this issue is not going away no matter how much Corbyn supporters try to deflect it to other parties. It is now the narrative for the labour party and something will have to give
No matter the outcome between Boris and the lib dems labour are in a very bad and dark place. They will lose seats and labour mps returned to the HOC who are on the moderate wing will have a choice, support the leader they despise, or join with the lib dems creating a new centre left party, thereby stranding Corbyn and relegating his part of labour into third place behind a revitalised left leaning social democratic party that would enjoy wide support.
Also this election may be morrphing from Brexit into stop Corbyn any cost
Fantasy, maybe but impossible, no
He will sink or swim on it in 5 weeks0 -
From the SRA guidance for solicitors:-TheScreamingEagles said:Anyone else shocked that the Catholic Church will protect nonces?
The Roman Catholic Church will oppose calls for priests to break the seal of the confessional to report admissions of child abuse, a public inquiry was told yesterday.
Cardinal Vincent Nichols, the Archbishop of Westminster, said the church could not accept any recommendation from the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse to require priests to disclose matters admitted to them during the sacrament.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/priests-will-not-report-child-abuse-confessions-nkp7t8mbw
“Preventing harm to children or vulnerable adults
There may be circumstances involving children or vulnerable adults where you should consider revealing confidential information to an appropriate authority. This may be where the child or adult in question is the client and they reveal information which indicates they are suffering sexual or other abuse but refuse to allow disclosure of such information.
Similarly there may be situations where the client discloses abuse either by himself or herself or by another adult against a child or vulnerable adult but refuses to allow any disclosure. As noted above, the examples discussed do not allow for disclosure after the event, however you may have reason to be concerned about the risk of future harm.
You are not required by law to disclose this information. You must therefore consider whether the threat to the person’s life or health is sufficiently serious to justify a breach of the duty of confidentiality.”0 -
We need some polling. Is any of this breaking through on either side?Big_G_NorthWales said:The last 24 hours has been a torrid time for labour and in particular Corbyn
Ian Austin and John Woodcock later joined by John Mann openly advocate voting for Boris. Tom Watson walks out leaving moderate labour mps marooned in Corbyn's labour party. Three candidates sacked for anti semitic remarks and Margaret Hodge refusing to endorse Corbyn as leader
The media are full of it and this issue is not going away no matter how much Corbyn supporters try to deflect it to other parties. It is now the narrative for the labour party and something will have to give
No matter the outcome between Boris and the lib dems labour are in a very bad and dark place. They will lose seats and labour mps returned to the HOC who are on the moderate wing will have a choice, support the leader they despise, or join with the lib dems creating a new centre left party, thereby stranding Corbyn and relegating his part of labour into third place behind a revitalised left leaning social democratic party that would enjoy wide support.
Also this election may be morrphing from Brexit into stop Corbyn any cost
Fantasy, maybe but impossible, no0 -
Lib Dem Candidate Complained December Election Would Ruin Her Ski Season https://t.co/fcNbD5JuQT https://t.co/fQrcrvhddh0
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I've just watched the clip of Victoria Atkins floundering on Radio 4 this morning.
Highlight of the day so far!0 -
The Bloomberg presidential odds are particularly funny when you think about it
i) He might not run. Even though this is looking ~ 70% (And that's being generous) at the moment to get the paperwork for Alabama in it still doesn't mean he's a bona fide candidate. He probably won't qualify for the debates and will be looked on as an amusing Johnny come lately even if he runs.
ii) He's going to be around the - and this is if he's lucky 1 or 2% polling mark. He may even break out to 5% before he 'pulls out'.
iii) He is precisely the sort of billionaire much of the Dem grassroots really doesn't like.
iv) I think his chances in the general vs Trump are poor - he's not going to get the Obama coalition back on board.0 -
A Con majority of about 30-40 would be perfect for me.peter_from_putney said:Many PBers, yours truly included, took great heed of the weekly forecasts issued by Prof Stephen Fisher (aka Elections, Etc.) ahead of the 2017 GE, which like many other forecasts at the time did not work out well and about which Prof. Fisher intends to comment further in due course, as well as commenting on the experience of pollvote.com's combined forecast of the last U.S> Presidential elections. For our forthcoming GE on 12 December, he is joined by John Kenny of Southampton University and Rosalind Shorrocks of Manchester University.
Their first combined forecast, based on averaging the Betting Markets, Complex Models and Simple Models was issued two days ago on 6 November and shows the following number of seats being won by each party:
Betting Complex Simple Average
Markets Models Models
Con 338 364 358 353
Lab 212 185 189 195
LibDem 43 43 29 38
Brexit 3 0 0 1
Greens 2 1 1 1
SNP 50 50 50 50
PlaidCymru 5 4 4 4
Con Maj 27 78 66 57
The Conservative majority numbers shown above appear to be based on a 650 member HoC. If, as previously, Sinn Fein members decide not to take up their seats in the chamber, the majority in each case would accordingly increase by approximately 7.
Enough to Get Brexit Done but no so big that Boris could go completely crazy and small enough to allow the Opposition to be in with a chance of replacing the government in 2023 or 2024.0 -
That Clacton Labour candidate seems like a nice fella...
https://twitter.com/TheRedRoar/status/11927608521869107210 -
Luckily for her I dont think that is in the same scale we have seen of other candidates in other parties.....Big_G_NorthWales said:Lib Dem Candidate Complained December Election Would Ruin Her Ski Season https://t.co/fcNbD5JuQT https://t.co/fQrcrvhddh
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Doubt it, the noise of gaffes all round is good for maintaining the status quo though.DavidL said:
We need some polling. Is any of this breaking through on either side?Big_G_NorthWales said:The last 24 hours has been a torrid time for labour and in particular Corbyn
Ian Austin and John Woodcock later joined by John Mann openly advocate voting for Boris. Tom Watson walks out leaving moderate labour mps marooned in Corbyn's labour party. Three candidates sacked for anti semitic remarks and Margaret Hodge refusing to endorse Corbyn as leader
The media are full of it and this issue is not going away no matter how much Corbyn supporters try to deflect it to other parties. It is now the narrative for the labour party and something will have to give
No matter the outcome between Boris and the lib dems labour are in a very bad and dark place. They will lose seats and labour mps returned to the HOC who are on the moderate wing will have a choice, support the leader they despise, or join with the lib dems creating a new centre left party, thereby stranding Corbyn and relegating his part of labour into third place behind a revitalised left leaning social democratic party that would enjoy wide support.
Also this election may be morrphing from Brexit into stop Corbyn any cost
Fantasy, maybe but impossible, no0 -
Morning all
As a break from our nonsense time to look at some similar nonsense happening in Iberia as it is another election or the Spanish Cortes on Sunday.
Spain last went to the polls in April but the indecisive result last time and the failure of the Social Democrat leader to form a Government means the Spaniards are heading back to the polls.
Back in April, the Social Democrats (PSOE) under Pedro Sanchez won 123 seats in the 350 seat Cortes polling 28.7% of the vote. The Popular Party (PP) under Pablo Casado suffered a historic defeat losing more than half their seats and ending with just 66 on 16.7%. Citizens came a strong third with 57 seats and 16% of the vote with United Left on 42 seats and 14.3% and newcomers VOX on 24 seats with 10%.
Sanchez tried to form as Government but couldn’t recruit any allies from even the Left and was nowhere near a majority so we’ve come to another election.
The polls however suggest another deadlock. There is a legal ban on opinion polls in the last week of the election in Spain but there are some polls about though they don’t always publish sample sizes so it’s uncertain as to their actual veracity.
Roughly speaking, PSOE lead with 27% (-2), PP are on 20% (+3) with VOX third on 15% (+5), United Left on 13% (-1) and Citizens the big losers on just 8% (-8).
Seat projections put PSOE around 117 seats so a small loss with PP up to 90 seats and VOX on 50 both gaining about 25 seats while United Left are on 35 and Citizens losing 40 seats to just 14.
The problem is there’s no obvious Government out of this either. Casado tacked back to the centre after the April drubbing and that has helped pick up votes from Citizens but he has lost ground to VOX on the right and while a combined PP-VOX coalition might have 140 seats it would still be short of Government.
In truth, the only combination that works would be a PSOE-PP coalition but that seems implausible but not impossible. I suspect that will be what emerges out of Sunday’s vote.
Meanwhile in Austria, the prospect of a deal between Kurz’s OVP and the Greens continues to tantalise with further talks on-going and I wonder if it might open the possibility for a CDU-Green coalition after the next German elections.
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The problem with ousting him in Uxbridge is the Labour candidate, Ali Milani. I know he has apologised for his past antisemitism, but in the current climate that does not help. If Labour had selected a decent candidate (or even better, if the opposition parties had agreed to unite behind an independent - Richard Ratcliffe?) then Boris would be toast. As it is Labour may have let him off the hook.Beibheirli_C said:
I said the same on here a while back and was assured that such a travesty could not happen. He has a 5,000 majority but just two years previous he had an 11,000 majority. That is a big drop for 2 yearsPeter_the_Punter said:I know it's an unfashionable view, but I really do think he could come unstuck in Uxbridge whatever the national result.
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If you lay him on the Dem market, you can even cover off the potential for him to run (and win) as an Independent, for example, if he drops out of the Dem nomination but stays in the race.Pulpstar said:The Bloomberg presidential odds are particularly funny when you think about it
i) He might not run. Even though this is looking ~ 70% (And that's being generous) at the moment to get the paperwork for Alabama in it still doesn't mean he's a bona fide candidate. He probably won't qualify for the debates and will be looked on as an amusing Johnny come lately even if he runs.
ii) He's going to be around the - and this is if he's lucky 1 or 2% polling mark. He may even break out to 5% before he 'pulls out'.
iii) He is precisely the sort of billionaire much of the Dem grassroots really doesn't like.
iv) I think his chances in the general vs Trump are poor - he's not going to get the Obama coalition back on board.0 -
Trump's Barry?Martin_Kinsella said:
Whenever I see that video I am always reminded of Shaun "Barry from Eastenders" Williamson dressed in the same gear doing the same song in a sitcom. I can't remember what. If ever Mindbleach was needed this is it.MarqueeMark said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BsKbwR7WXN4Gallowgate said:
I voted for Corbyn in that leadership election. How stupid I was.Gardenwalker said:We cannot defeat multiple devils at once.
Perhaps if Labour can be utterly immolated, there will be a silver lining to our present clouds.
I tend to think that everything turned to shit since that fateful day Corbyn was elected. Removing him from the scene - and humilating everything he stands for - is probably an necessary precondition to national recovery.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdeuc1zhj440 -
There'll be plenty more by this day in 5 weeks time.SandyRentool said:I've just watched the clip of Victoria Atkins floundering on Radio 4 this morning.
Highlight of the day so far!
One of the most depressing exchanges I have seen all year was between her and "communist" Ash Sarkar on Question Time.0 -
Beware all organisations (including professions) that where knowledge or information about serious crimes is concerned have a culture that puts loyalty to comrades or clients above disclosure to law enforcement.Cyclefree said:
From the SRA guidance for solicitors:-TheScreamingEagles said:Anyone else shocked that the Catholic Church will protect nonces?
The Roman Catholic Church will oppose calls for priests to break the seal of the confessional to report admissions of child abuse, a public inquiry was told yesterday.
Cardinal Vincent Nichols, the Archbishop of Westminster, said the church could not accept any recommendation from the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse to require priests to disclose matters admitted to them during the sacrament.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/priests-will-not-report-child-abuse-confessions-nkp7t8mbw
“Preventing harm to children or vulnerable adults
There may be circumstances involving children or vulnerable adults where you should consider revealing confidential information to an appropriate authority. This may be where the child or adult in question is the client and they reveal information which indicates they are suffering sexual or other abuse but refuse to allow disclosure of such information.
Similarly there may be situations where the client discloses abuse either by himself or herself or by another adult against a child or vulnerable adult but refuses to allow any disclosure. As noted above, the examples discussed do not allow for disclosure after the event, however you may have reason to be concerned about the risk of future harm.
You are not required by law to disclose this information. You must therefore consider whether the threat to the person’s life or health is sufficiently serious to justify a breach of the duty of confidentiality.”0 -
It's classic Johnson and remember the first rule of Johnson - "he will say whatever he thinks the audience in front of him wants to hear".Roger said:
Impressive!Richard_Nabavi said:On topic: Well quite. How on earth anyone of integrity could vote for Corbyn's Labour is a mystery.
On the other hand: have we discussed the excruciating video of Boris 'explaining' how trade between NI and GB would work under his deal with the EU?
https://twitter.com/ManufacturingNI/status/1192564837345353728
It is absolutely gob-smacking. For a start he sounds drunk. He's verging on completely incoherent. And inasmuch as you can understand what he's saying, it bears no relation to the official government interpretation of how the deal would work.
How in the name of heaven did the Conservative Party saddle itself, and us, with this guy?
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My feeling is that this anti semitism confect will make no difference. Three or four Labour politicians don't like their leader. So what. The number who have left the Tory party because of Johnson and his policies runs into several dozen. Three ex cabinet ministers in the last week.timmo said:
Look at last nights local election result in Croydon..the labour tribal vote is still thereRoger said:
They're hiding from you. They think all Tories believe Labour supporters are anti semites so they keep their voting intention between themselves and the voting boothbookseller said:
Anecdata.timmo said:After having done a little bit of canvassing over the last week as a sanity check on the 2017 Tory pledges I am now in a position to say that I think the Conservatives are in some real trouble.
People apathetic(I know more than 2017) and some lib dem tory waiverers from that year are now 100% LD.
I know it's a sample of only a hundred or so but you get a bit of a feeling on the doorstep. Bojo is so marmite that he pretty much gets those that dont like him determined to vote him out.
A private poll of boomers that I know (and my parents know). If they are Remainy, definitely LD (my Mum was a life-long Tory voter and former councillor, and fell out with her Mum who was a Liberal councillor back in the day, and *she's* just joined the LDs).
If they are Brexity, then the 'get Brexit done' message is scoring highly, and/or people genuinely feel there should be more people in Parliament like JRM. No, seriously.
Nowhere have I found any support for Labour. Not one person.
As you say Johnson's Marmite. In 2017 I didn't bother with a postal vote because Mrs May wasn't too awful. This time I'd crawl through a snow storm to vote against Johnson0 -
Latest polling in Scotland:
25 point lead for the SNP
Conservative 22%
Labour 10%
Lib Dem 8%
SNP 47%
Brexit Party 5%
Green 8%
YouGov/The Times/Sky 5-6 Nov0 -
Lawyers have a duty of confidentiality which balances the need to disclose.Pierrot said:
Beware all organisations (including professions) that where knowledge or information about serious crimes is concerned have a culture that puts loyalty to comrades or clients above disclosure to law enforcement.Cyclefree said:
From the SRA guidance for solicitors:-TheScreamingEagles said:Anyone else shocked that the Catholic Church will protect nonces?
The Roman Catholic Church will oppose calls for priests to break the seal of the confessional to report admissions of child abuse, a public inquiry was told yesterday.
Cardinal Vincent Nichols, the Archbishop of Westminster, said the church could not accept any recommendation from the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse to require priests to disclose matters admitted to them during the sacrament.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/priests-will-not-report-child-abuse-confessions-nkp7t8mbw
“Preventing harm to children or vulnerable adults
There may be circumstances involving children or vulnerable adults where you should consider revealing confidential information to an appropriate authority. This may be where the child or adult in question is the client and they reveal information which indicates they are suffering sexual or other abuse but refuse to allow disclosure of such information.
Similarly there may be situations where the client discloses abuse either by himself or herself or by another adult against a child or vulnerable adult but refuses to allow any disclosure. As noted above, the examples discussed do not allow for disclosure after the event, however you may have reason to be concerned about the risk of future harm.
You are not required by law to disclose this information. You must therefore consider whether the threat to the person’s life or health is sufficiently serious to justify a breach of the duty of confidentiality.”
Whether you thin priests have a duty of confidentiality rather depends on your view...0 -
Someone mentioned this interview, here is a link:
https://twitter.com/brexit_sham/status/1192748185783062528?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet0 -
I expect is will be a slow drip dripDavidL said:
We need some polling. Is any of this breaking through on either side?Big_G_NorthWales said:The last 24 hours has been a torrid time for labour and in particular Corbyn
Ian Austin and John Woodcock later joined by John Mann openly advocate voting for Boris. Tom Watson walks out leaving moderate labour mps marooned in Corbyn's labour party. Three candidates sacked for anti semitic remarks and Margaret Hodge refusing to endorse Corbyn as leader
The media are full of it and this issue is not going away no matter how much Corbyn supporters try to deflect it to other parties. It is now the narrative for the labour party and something will have to give
No matter the outcome between Boris and the lib dems labour are in a very bad and dark place. They will lose seats and labour mps returned to the HOC who are on the moderate wing will have a choice, support the leader they despise, or join with the lib dems creating a new centre left party, thereby stranding Corbyn and relegating his part of labour into third place behind a revitalised left leaning social democratic party that would enjoy wide support.
Also this election may be morrphing from Brexit into stop Corbyn any cost
Fantasy, maybe but impossible, no
There is one thing that must be taxing labour mps minds is the release of the EHRC report into anti semtism in the labour party in the new year. It has been said members of the NEC are taking legal advice on their personal liability for damages should a damning report be received and the labour party itself could face outright bankrupcy over damages
It must be a very scary thought for many labour mps, but they have allowed it to happen0 -
Well, it's hard to see how they could hear Confession if they didn't.TheWhiteRabbit said:Lawyers have a duty of confidentiality which balances the need to disclose.
Whether you thin priests have a duty of confidentiality rather depends on your view...0 -
Is that a scotland only poll?marke09 said:Latest polling in Scotland:
25 point lead for the SNP
Conservative 22%
Labour 10%
Lib Dem 8%
SNP 47%
Brexit Party 5%
Green 8%
YouGov/The Times/Sky 5-6 Nov
That's Kaboom territory.
That is annihilatory LD don't even win Fife NE, Conservatives down to 3 seats level.0 -
Sort of.Beibheirli_C said:
I said the same on here a while back and was assured that such a travesty could not happen. He has a 5,000 majority but just two years previous he had an 11,000 majority. That is a big drop for 2 yearsPeter_the_Punter said:I know it's an unfashionable view, but I really do think he could come unstuck in Uxbridge whatever the national result.
But in the same time period Boris Johnson's share of the vote went from 50.2% to 50.8%.
The majority didn't fall because of a fall in the Conservative share, it fell because Labour squeezed the other parties shares. If the Conservatives remain above 50% share then the seat won't fall to anybody else and it would take some bizarre swing to have Labour overturn that seat without seeing a Labour General Election victory anyway.0 -
Who?SandyRentool said:I've just watched the clip of Victoria Atkins floundering on Radio 4 this morning.
Highlight of the day so far!0 -
Posted in errorSandyRentool said:I've just watched the clip of Victoria Atkins floundering on Radio 4 this morning.
Highlight of the day so far!0 -
I'll take that, so long as Tories win a majority thanks to Wales and England.Alistair said:
Is that a scotland only poll?marke09 said:Latest polling in Scotland:
25 point lead for the SNP
Conservative 22%
Labour 10%
Lib Dem 8%
SNP 47%
Brexit Party 5%
Green 8%
YouGov/The Times/Sky 5-6 Nov
That's Kaboom territory.
That is annihilatory LD don't even win Fife NE, Conservatives down to 3 seats level.0 -
I agree. We focus on each piece of stupidity/incompetence/car crash interview and more rational people just let it drift by them but slowly they come to an overall assessment in which some of the flotsam plays a part.Pulpstar said:
Doubt it, the noise of gaffes all round is good for maintaining the status quo though.DavidL said:
We need some polling. Is any of this breaking through on either side?Big_G_NorthWales said:The last 24 hours has been a torrid time for labour and in particular Corbyn
Ian Austin and John Woodcock later joined by John Mann openly advocate voting for Boris. Tom Watson walks out leaving moderate labour mps marooned in Corbyn's labour party. Three candidates sacked for anti semitic remarks and Margaret Hodge refusing to endorse Corbyn as leader
The media are full of it and this issue is not going away no matter how much Corbyn supporters try to deflect it to other parties. It is now the narrative for the labour party and something will have to give
No matter the outcome between Boris and the lib dems labour are in a very bad and dark place. They will lose seats and labour mps returned to the HOC who are on the moderate wing will have a choice, support the leader they despise, or join with the lib dems creating a new centre left party, thereby stranding Corbyn and relegating his part of labour into third place behind a revitalised left leaning social democratic party that would enjoy wide support.
Also this election may be morrphing from Brexit into stop Corbyn any cost
Fantasy, maybe but impossible, no
The sad thing is that when we have MOE polls many in Labour will convince themselves that this Antisemitism thing isn't really hurting them after all. Which, on one view, rather misses the point.0 -
I take it that is a rhetorical question @Richard_Nabavi ? You had an inside track for many years, moreso than the rest of us. If anyone knows, it should be you.Richard_Nabavi said:On topic: Well quite. How on earth anyone of integrity could vote for Corbyn's Labour is a mystery.
On the other hand: have we discussed the excruciating video of Boris 'explaining' how trade between NI and GB would work under his deal with the EU?
https://twitter.com/ManufacturingNI/status/1192564837345353728
It is absolutely gob-smacking. For a start he sounds drunk. He's verging on completely incoherent. And inasmuch as you can understand what he's saying, it bears no relation to the official government interpretation of how the deal would work.
How in the name of heaven did the Conservative Party saddle itself, and us, with this guy?
Perhaps Charles can nudge a few of his contacts??? 0 -
And that just reinforces how much of a failure it is by Labour to have put up a weak candidate such as Milani, rather than get behind a strong independent with the other parties. It is highly likely that some of the other parties votes that were squeezed in 2017 will return to their previous home (and rather more of them than had Labour put up a strong candidate). In these circumstances it is, regrettably, hard to see how Johnson can lose Uxbridge.Philip_Thompson said:
Sort of.Beibheirli_C said:
I said the same on here a while back and was assured that such a travesty could not happen. He has a 5,000 majority but just two years previous he had an 11,000 majority. That is a big drop for 2 yearsPeter_the_Punter said:I know it's an unfashionable view, but I really do think he could come unstuck in Uxbridge whatever the national result.
But in the same time period Boris Johnson's share of the vote went from 50.2% to 50.8%.
The majority didn't fall because of a fall in the Conservative share, it fell because Labour squeezed the other parties shares. If the Conservatives remain above 50% share then the seat won't fall to anybody else and it would take some bizarre swing to have Labour overturn that seat without seeing a Labour General Election victory anyway.0 -
In both cases the duty being enforced by the organisation they belong to which has strict rules and culture and calls outsiders "lay". With the Scientologists, it's "clams".TheWhiteRabbit said:
Lawyers have a duty of confidentiality which balances the need to disclose.Pierrot said:
Beware all organisations (including professions) that where knowledge or information about serious crimes is concerned have a culture that puts loyalty to comrades or clients above disclosure to law enforcement.Cyclefree said:
From the SRA guidance for solicitors:-TheScreamingEagles said:Anyone else shocked that the Catholic Church will protect nonces?
The Roman Catholic Church will oppose calls for priests to break the seal of the confessional to report admissions of child abuse, a public inquiry was told yesterday.
Cardinal Vincent Nichols, the Archbishop of Westminster, said the church could not accept any recommendation from the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse to require priests to disclose matters admitted to them during the sacrament.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/priests-will-not-report-child-abuse-confessions-nkp7t8mbw
“Preventing harm to children or vulnerable adults
There may be circumstances involving children or vulnerable adults where you should consider revealing confidential information to an appropriate authority. This may be where the child or adult in question is the client and they reveal information which indicates they are suffering sexual or other abuse but refuse to allow disclosure of such information.
Similarly there may be situations where the client discloses abuse either by himself or herself or by another adult against a child or vulnerable adult but refuses to allow any disclosure. As noted above, the examples discussed do not allow for disclosure after the event, however you may have reason to be concerned about the risk of future harm.
You are not required by law to disclose this information. You must therefore consider whether the threat to the person’s life or health is sufficiently serious to justify a breach of the duty of confidentiality.”
Whether you thin priests have a duty of confidentiality rather depends on your view...
0 -
It's a subsamplePhilip_Thompson said:
I'll take that, so long as Tories win a majority thanks to Wales and England.Alistair said:
Is that a scotland only poll?marke09 said:Latest polling in Scotland:
25 point lead for the SNP
Conservative 22%
Labour 10%
Lib Dem 8%
SNP 47%
Brexit Party 5%
Green 8%
YouGov/The Times/Sky 5-6 Nov
That's Kaboom territory.
That is annihilatory LD don't even win Fife NE, Conservatives down to 3 seats level.0 -
Why is she standing as a Labour MP then?dyedwoolie said:Margaret Hodge refuses to endorse Corbyn.
Going well, isn't it?
And this said on a thread about the dangers of expressing prejudice about a group of people. Badly done Mr H.philiph said:
If the Catholic Church continues in this vein it will be easy to identify the Child abusers.nichomar said:
Do they say that they will, in those cases, not give absolution to the sinner?TheScreamingEagles said:Anyone else shocked that the Catholic Church will protect nonces?
The Roman Catholic Church will oppose calls for priests to break the seal of the confessional to report admissions of child abuse, a public inquiry was told yesterday.
Cardinal Vincent Nichols, the Archbishop of Westminster, said the church could not accept any recommendation from the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse to require priests to disclose matters admitted to them during the sacrament.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/priests-will-not-report-child-abuse-confessions-nkp7t8mbw
They will be the only ones left attending services or will be conducting the services.
I will remember your comments this Sunday when I go to Mass to remember my late parents and other deceased relatives - November is the special month for praying for the dead in the Christian calendar - that there are people who think that I must therefore be a child abuser.0 -
In Germany things can only move on when Merkel goes. Currently the outcome in the Thuringen state election means the place is ungovernable. Die linke got 31% of the vote, the AfD 23% of the vote and the CDU slumped to 22%. There is no easy coalition. That means the protest parties got 54% of the vote.stodge said:Morning all
As a break from our nonsense time to look at some similar nonsense happening in Iberia as it is another election or the Spanish Cortes on Sunday.
Spain last went to the polls in April but the indecisive result last time and the failure of the Social Democrat leader to form a Government means the Spaniards are heading back to the polls.
Back in April, the Social Democrats (PSOE) under Pedro Sanchez won 123 seats in the 350 seat Cortes polling 28.7% of the vote. The Popular Party (PP) under Pablo Casado suffered a historic defeat losing more than half their seats and ending with just 66 on 16.7%. Citizens came a strong third with 57 seats and 16% of the vote with United Left on 42 seats and 14.3% and newcomers VOX on 24 seats with 10%.
Sanchez tried to form as Government but couldn’t recruit any allies from even the Left and was nowhere near a majority so we’ve come to another election.
The polls however suggest another deadlock. There is a legal ban on opinion polls in the last week of the election in Spain but there are some polls about though they don’t always publish sample sizes so it’s uncertain as to their actual veracity.
Roughly speaking, PSOE lead with 27% (-2), PP are on 20% (+3) with VOX third on 15% (+5), United Left on 13% (-1) and Citizens the big losers on just 8% (-8).
Seat projections put PSOE around 117 seats so a small loss with PP up to 90 seats and VOX on 50 both gaining about 25 seats while United Left are on 35 and Citizens losing 40 seats to just 14.
The problem is there’s no obvious Government out of this either. Casado tacked back to the centre after the April drubbing and that has helped pick up votes from Citizens but he has lost ground to VOX on the right and while a combined PP-VOX coalition might have 140 seats it would still be short of Government.
In truth, the only combination that works would be a PSOE-PP coalition but that seems implausible but not impossible. I suspect that will be what emerges out of Sunday’s vote.
Meanwhile in Austria, the prospect of a deal between Kurz’s OVP and the Greens continues to tantalise with further talks on-going and I wonder if it might open the possibility for a CDU-Green coalition after the next German elections.
The SPD appears to be in terminal decline and the CDU is going the same way with Merkel sandbagging every attempt at change, The next general election could be a shock to the system.0 -
They got wrecked at the last election with some exceedingly unwise prices.isam said:
115% book!!!Alistair said:I don't understand Berfair Sportsbook prices in East Lothian
SNP 1.9
Lab 4.0
Con 2.62
Surely the Lab and Conservative prices have been flipped?
They limited me severely and banned me from any promos or bonuses after my Constituency betting last time out.0 -
NE Fife, not Fife NE!Alistair said:
Is that a scotland only poll?marke09 said:Latest polling in Scotland:
25 point lead for the SNP
Conservative 22%
Labour 10%
Lib Dem 8%
SNP 47%
Brexit Party 5%
Green 8%
YouGov/The Times/Sky 5-6 Nov
That's Kaboom territory.
That is annihilatory LD don't even win Fife NE, Conservatives down to 3 seats level.0 -
its a sub poll of just 130Alistair said:
Is that a scotland only poll?marke09 said:Latest polling in Scotland:
25 point lead for the SNP
Conservative 22%
Labour 10%
Lib Dem 8%
SNP 47%
Brexit Party 5%
Green 8%
YouGov/The Times/Sky 5-6 Nov
That's Kaboom territory.
That is annihilatory LD don't even win Fife NE, Conservatives down to 3 seats level.0 -
Sturgeon just confirmed she will put Corbyn in no10 for referendum
She rambled a bit but then said 'Yes'0 -
Fair comment, but sometimes the Church is its own worst enemy. Visiting Rome a couple of years ago the first thing I noticed on the street stalls was they were all selling a 'Priests Calendar' featuring young priests who all looked like male models. It was like walking into a mediterranean set of Father Ted. I half expected Father Dougal to make an appearance.Cyclefree said:
Why is she standing as a Labour MP then?dyedwoolie said:Margaret Hodge refuses to endorse Corbyn.
Going well, isn't it?
And this said on a thread about the dangers of expressing prejudice about a group of people. Badly done Mr H.philiph said:
If the Catholic Church continues in this vein it will be easy to identify the Child abusers.nichomar said:
Do they say that they will, in those cases, not give absolution to the sinner?TheScreamingEagles said:Anyone else shocked that the Catholic Church will protect nonces?
The Roman Catholic Church will oppose calls for priests to break the seal of the confessional to report admissions of child abuse, a public inquiry was told yesterday.
Cardinal Vincent Nichols, the Archbishop of Westminster, said the church could not accept any recommendation from the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse to require priests to disclose matters admitted to them during the sacrament.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/priests-will-not-report-child-abuse-confessions-nkp7t8mbw
They will be the only ones left attending services or will be conducting the services.
I will remember your comments this Sunday when I go to Mass to remember my late parents and other deceased relatives - November is the special month for praying for the dead in the Christian calendar - that there are people who think that I must therefore be a child abuser.0 -
Not that the choice is any better in Scotland. Nicola Sturgeon: "“If you are sick of the chaos [...] vote SNP to escape Brexit,”
Just imagine the chaos if Scotland finds itself simultaneously leaving the EU as part of the UK, trying to rejoin it as an independent state, and extricating itself from centuries of total economic integration with the UK.0 -
It probably doesn't lose Labour votes, but it reinforces the determination among Lib Dems not to switch to Labour, and confirms Conservative and TBP voters in their determination to back their respective parties.Roger said:
My feeling is that this anti semitism confect will make no difference. Three or four Labour politicians don't like their leader. So what. The number who have left the Tory party because of Johnson and his policies runs into several dozen. Three ex cabinet ministers in the last week.timmo said:
Look at last nights local election result in Croydon..the labour tribal vote is still thereRoger said:
They're hiding from you. They think all Tories believe Labour supporters are anti semites so they keep their voting intention between themselves and the voting boothbookseller said:
Anecdata.timmo said:After having done a little bit of canvassing over the last week as a sanity check on the 2017 Tory pledges I am now in a position to say that I think the Conservatives are in some real trouble.
People apathetic(I know more than 2017) and some lib dem tory waiverers from that year are now 100% LD.
I know it's a sample of only a hundred or so but you get a bit of a feeling on the doorstep. Bojo is so marmite that he pretty much gets those that dont like him determined to vote him out.
A private poll of boomers that I know (and my parents know). If they are Remainy, definitely LD (my Mum was a life-long Tory voter and former councillor, and fell out with her Mum who was a Liberal councillor back in the day, and *she's* just joined the LDs).
If they are Brexity, then the 'get Brexit done' message is scoring highly, and/or people genuinely feel there should be more people in Parliament like JRM. No, seriously.
Nowhere have I found any support for Labour. Not one person.
As you say Johnson's Marmite. In 2017 I didn't bother with a postal vote because Mrs May wasn't too awful. This time I'd crawl through a snow storm to vote against Johnson
So long as that remains the case, there is no path to victory for the Labour Party.2 -
Sturgeon says she will have significant power over labour
Will not give support to a Corbyn budget unless he agrees a referendum
Just gets worse and worse for Corbyn
0 -
Lots of issues like that slip in, I've noticed discrepancies with poll cards and such a few timesOnlyLivingBoy said:
NE Fife, not Fife NE!Alistair said:
Is that a scotland only poll?marke09 said:Latest polling in Scotland:
25 point lead for the SNP
Conservative 22%
Labour 10%
Lib Dem 8%
SNP 47%
Brexit Party 5%
Green 8%
YouGov/The Times/Sky 5-6 Nov
That's Kaboom territory.
That is annihilatory LD don't even win Fife NE, Conservatives down to 3 seats level.0 -
Exactly this. When this story first broke I thought that Labour would throw some antisemites out of their party and then it would become a non-story.philiph said:
There is adequate evidence that the processes to deal with it are not robust or independent. If they were the problem would be gone by now.
They are unable or unwilling to do so. The distinction doesn't matter to me as both are bad enough.0 -
Our justice system could not carry on without confidentiality. How can a solicitor tell a client that they must give him or her full disclosure if the client knows he is going to be shopped following what he says? All systems have to have someone who knows how to shut up even when they don't want to. No, I don't like the consequences either.Pierrot said:
Beware all organisations (including professions) that where knowledge or information about serious crimes is concerned have a culture that puts loyalty to comrades or clients above disclosure to law enforcement.Cyclefree said:
From the SRA guidance for solicitors:-TheScreamingEagles said:Anyone else shocked that the Catholic Church will protect nonces?
The Roman Catholic Church will oppose calls for priests to break the seal of the confessional to report admissions of child abuse, a public inquiry was told yesterday.
Cardinal Vincent Nichols, the Archbishop of Westminster, said the church could not accept any recommendation from the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse to require priests to disclose matters admitted to them during the sacrament.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/priests-will-not-report-child-abuse-confessions-nkp7t8mbw
“Preventing harm to children or vulnerable adults
There may be circumstances involving children or vulnerable adults where you should consider revealing confidential information to an appropriate authority. This may be where the child or adult in question is the client and they reveal information which indicates they are suffering sexual or other abuse but refuse to allow disclosure of such information.
Similarly there may be situations where the client discloses abuse either by himself or herself or by another adult against a child or vulnerable adult but refuses to allow any disclosure. As noted above, the examples discussed do not allow for disclosure after the event, however you may have reason to be concerned about the risk of future harm.
You are not required by law to disclose this information. You must therefore consider whether the threat to the person’s life or health is sufficiently serious to justify a breach of the duty of confidentiality.”
0 -
I disagree. A political party is more than a fan group for its current leader.humbugger said:Good morning all, just popping in briefly.
I'm afraid that Margaret Hodge can't have it all ways. If she stands as a Labour MP in a party run by Corbyn she is endorsing him as PM. To state otherwise is frankly an insult to her voters.0 -
Nicola Sturgeon making clear she believes a Jeremy Corbyn and John MacDonnell led government would agree to IndyRef2 since that is the long term route London Labour has been on. Repeated over and over again that should help SCons hold seats. As I have said several times, I think the SNP is making a mistake making this General Election about IndyRef2 instead of Brexit. SCons is the party recognised as most unionist among Scots in Scotland.0
-
Nick Robinson has improved his act.148grss said:Someone mentioned this interview, here is a link:
https://twitter.com/brexit_sham/status/1192748185783062528?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
"That's like saying 'a food based diet'..." LOL
Then the idiot minister insists on repeating the line in response to every question.0 -
The sequencing of the EU and Sindy referenda will be important.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sturgeon says she will have significant power over labour
Will not give support to a Corbyn budget unless he agrees a referendum
Just gets worse and worse for Corbyn0 -
The point I am making is that the rule which has so outraged TSE in relation to Catholic priests is the same as the rule which applies to him as a solicitor.Pierrot said:
Beware all organisations (including professions) that where knowledge or information about serious crimes is concerned have a culture that puts loyalty to comrades or clients above disclosure to law enforcement.Cyclefree said:
From the SRA guidance for solicitors:-TheScreamingEagles said:
The Roman Catholic Church will oppose calls for priests to break the seal of the confessional to report admissions of child abuse, a public inquiry was told yesterday.
“Preventing harm to children or vulnerable adults
There may be circumstances involving children or vulnerable adults where you should consider revealing confidential information to an appropriate authority. This may be where the child or adult in question is the client and they reveal information which indicates they are suffering sexual or other abuse but refuse to allow disclosure of such information.
Similarly there may be situations where the client discloses abuse either by himself or herself or by another adult against a child or vulnerable adult but refuses to allow any disclosure. As noted above, the examples discussed do not allow for disclosure after the event, however you may have reason to be concerned about the risk of future harm.
You are not required by law to disclose this information. You must therefore consider whether the threat to the person’s life or health is sufficiently serious to justify a breach of the duty of confidentiality.”
On the wider point I agree that there is always a tension between loyalty to a group and wider moral considerations. The duty of confidentiality to a client is, however, there for a good purpose. Just as journalists do not reveal sources or the police, come to that.
Where a client confesses to the commission of a crime then there is lots of guidance on how the solicitor should behave to try and resolve those tensions and behave in the right way.
I am no expert on what priests should do but I believe that they cannot give absolution and should tell the person to turn themselves in. They can also do so themselves. The issue is about whether they can be legally required to do do, just as in the case of solicitors. That is a more subtle point.
FWIW I think the issue of child abuse and its cover up is so wrong and has been so damaging to the Church that it ought to make it a requirement that priests becoming aware of such behaviour must report it.
0 -
Nominations close before the manifesto is publicly released, but do all candidates get prior sight of it?Cyclefree said:
Why is she standing as a Labour MP then?dyedwoolie said:Margaret Hodge refuses to endorse Corbyn.
Going well, isn't it?
0 -
Sadly I think you are right about Labour and anti-semitism (and the same goes for the Tories' alleged islamaphobia). Aside from a few activists these allegations do not register on the doorstep, accusations of racism are flung around daily and the currency has been greatly devalued. Few votes will change because of this, Labour has already lost the (very small) jewish vote and the Tories continue to be regarded with suspicion by the (much larger) muslim vote.Roger said:
My feeling is that this anti semitism confect will make no difference. Three or four Labour politicians don't like their leader. So what. The number who have left the Tory party because of Johnson and his policies runs into several dozen. Three ex cabinet ministers in the last week.timmo said:
Look at last nights local election result in Croydon..the labour tribal vote is still thereRoger said:
They're hiding from you. They think all Tories believe Labour supporters are anti semites so they keep their voting intention between themselves and the voting boothbookseller said:
Anecdata.timmo said:After having done a little bit of canvassing over the last week as a sanity check on the 2017 Tory pledges I am now in a position to say that I think the Conservatives are in some real trouble.
People apathetic(I know more than 2017) and some lib dem tory waiverers from that year are now 100% LD.
I know it's a sample of only a hundred or so but you get a bit of a feeling on the doorstep. Bojo is so marmite that he pretty much gets those that dont like him determined to vote him out.
A private poll of boomers that I know (and my parents know). If they are Remainy, definitely LD (my Mum was a life-long Tory voter and former councillor, and fell out with her Mum who was a Liberal councillor back in the day, and *she's* just joined the LDs).
If they are Brexity, then the 'get Brexit done' message is scoring highly, and/or people genuinely feel there should be more people in Parliament like JRM. No, seriously.
Nowhere have I found any support for Labour. Not one person.
As you say Johnson's Marmite. In 2017 I didn't bother with a postal vote because Mrs May wasn't too awful. This time I'd crawl through a snow storm to vote against Johnson0 -
There'll be no large-scale MP defections from Labour. Any of the MPs from the 2017 Parliament who were going to leave have already done so, and their replacements will be loyalists. The remainder will stay in Labour at any cost, because they're fanatically tribal, think it's the only way to keep their jobs, or both.Big_G_NorthWales said:The last 24 hours has been a torrid time for labour and in particular Corbyn
Ian Austin and John Woodcock later joined by John Mann openly advocate voting for Boris. Tom Watson walks out leaving moderate labour mps marooned in Corbyn's labour party. Three candidates sacked for anti semitic remarks and Margaret Hodge refusing to endorse Corbyn as leader
The media are full of it and this issue is not going away no matter how much Corbyn supporters try to deflect it to other parties. It is now the narrative for the labour party and something will have to give
No matter the outcome between Boris and the lib dems labour are in a very bad and dark place. They will lose seats and labour mps returned to the HOC who are on the moderate wing will have a choice, support the leader they despise, or join with the lib dems creating a new centre left party, thereby stranding Corbyn and relegating his part of labour into third place behind a revitalised left leaning social democratic party that would enjoy wide support.
Also this election may be morrphing from Brexit into stop Corbyn any cost
Fantasy, maybe but impossible, no
Corbyn's abysmal ratings will do some damage to Labour, but they should still poll reasonably well. The impact of the antisemitism issue, amongst other things, will be limited because most Labour voters are robots and the bulk of Labour seats are held with large enough majorities to remain safe in any event.
It'll be touch and go whether the Conservatives get a majority, and if they do then the best the English party can do is to let the SNP have their second independence referendum and not try too hard to win it.
Scottish independence converts a thin Tory majority South of the Border into a large one. It's the most effective way to keep us safe from Labour, and should therefore be welcomed.0 -
I agree. And I trust you feel similarly about the Conservatives for readmitting the likes of Griffiths and Elphicke simply for the convenience of their vote (which led to the embarrassment of having to suspend Elphicke again when he was charged).OblitusSumMe said:
Exactly this. When this story first broke I thought that Labour would throw some antisemites out of their party and then it would become a non-story.philiph said:
There is adequate evidence that the processes to deal with it are not robust or independent. If they were the problem would be gone by now.
They are unable or unwilling to do so. The distinction doesn't matter to me as both are bad enough.0 -
Things are going to be a shambles anyway. The best thing Scotland can do is apply for expedited membership and hope that the EU support system takes the sting out of trading across the UK English border.Richard_Nabavi said:Not that the choice is any better in Scotland. Nicola Sturgeon: "“If you are sick of the chaos [...] vote SNP to escape Brexit,”
Just imagine the chaos if Scotland finds itself simultaneously leaving the EU as part of the UK, trying to rejoin it as an independent state, and extricating itself from centuries of total economic integration with the UK.0 -
Are there any floating voters this will change minds of? I'd say no.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sturgeon says she will have significant power over labour
Will not give support to a Corbyn budget unless he agrees a referendum
Just gets worse and worse for Corbyn
For Remain tactical voters, they see staying in the EU as a way of keeping Scotland in the Union, so tactically voting Labour for the 2 refs isn't a problem for them.
For Labour Leavers, how much do they care about Scottish independence or even Scottish power over Labour? They care about the NHS, Education and other things much more. In fact, SNP are probably the kind of moderate lefties they would agree with policy wise if it wasn't for the fact they were Scotch Nats.
For everyone who already hates Labour... They already hate Labour and weren't voting for them anyway.
If anything, it looks increasingly likely that Sturgeon will be seen as a moderating force on Labour, allowing sceptical English voters a chance to vote Labour whilst hoping the SNP (and possibly the LDs) will moderate Lab or even force Corbyn out behind the scenes for someone more moderate.
Some people hate the Nats, sure, but I don't think as many people who are already considering voting Labour hate them more than the Tories or Brexit.0 -
P
The same could be said of journalists, for instance. Or even lawyers. There have been occasions when the police have considered that lawyers and journalists should not have such a duty. As you say, it depends on your view .....TheWhiteRabbit said:
Lawyers have a duty of confidentiality which balances the need to disclose.Pierrot said:
Beware all organisations (including professions) that where knowledge or information about serious crimes is concerned have a culture that puts loyalty to comrades or clients above disclosure to law enforcement.Cyclefree said:
From the SRA guidance for solicitors:-TheScreamingEagles said:Anyone else shocked that the Catholic Church will protect nonces?
The Roman Catholic Church will oppose calls for priests to break the seal of the confessional to report admissions of child abuse, a public inquiry was told yesterday.
Cardinal Vincent Nichols, the Archbishop of Westminster, said the church could not accept any recommendation from the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse to require priests to disclose matters admitted to them during the sacrament.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/priests-will-not-report-child-abuse-confessions-nkp7t8mbw
“Preventing harm to children or vulnerable adults
There may be circumstances involving children or vulnerable adults where you should consider revealing confidential information to an appropriate authority. This may be where the child or adult in question is the client and they reveal information which indicates they are suffering sexual or other abuse but refuse to allow disclosure of such information.
Similarly there may be situations where the client discloses abuse either by himself or herself or by another adult against a child or vulnerable adult but refuses to allow any disclosure. As noted above, the examples discussed do not allow for disclosure after the event, however you may have reason to be concerned about the risk of future harm.
You are not required by law to disclose this information. You must therefore consider whether the threat to the person’s life or health is sufficiently serious to justify a breach of the duty of confidentiality.”
Whether you thin priests have a duty of confidentiality rather depends on your view...0 -
I agree that you don't need to know any Jews to feel that anti-semitism is A Bad Thing.MarqueeMark said:
The essence of the British nature doesn't require you to know any Jews to feel that anti-semitism is A Bad Thing and not the sort of thing that should be tolerated. that holds as true in Penzance or Kendal as it does in Golders Green.El_Capitano said:On topic:
OGH's header was specifically about whether Labour's anti-semitism issues, as summarised in Maajid Nawaz's excellent Twitter thread, will affect their electoral performance compared to GE 2017. OGH argues "The fact is that this has had a profound impact".
I agree that it should have a profound impact. What I don't know is whether it has, or will.
Here is a map (from visitjewishlondon.com) of where Jewish people live in Britain:
There are very, very large parts of Britain where there are not many Jews. That map is blanketed in a soft grey which indicates 100-500 Jews in a district. As someone who grew up in, and has always lived in, rural England, I spent a while trying to remember whether I have ever, in 45 years, known any (British) Jewish people. I eventually remembered I knew an emigré NYC Jew who lived in our town about ten years ago. (Mrs Capitano, on the other hand, grew up in Manchester and knew lots of Jewish kids.)
So the question is whether Labour's anti-semitism has broken through as a factor influencing people's votes in such areas. It may be that, rightly, people are generally revolted by the party's behaviour even though it doesn't affect them or anyone they know. It may be that it just contributes as a background factor to Sleazy Broken Labour On The Slide™. Both are very plausible. But they're just hypotheses until we have any polling evidence.
Lots of people supported the Anti-Nazi League in the 70's. How many of them knew a Nazi?
But we don't have any polling evidence to show that it is actually moving the vote in, particularly, the type of seat that the Conservatives need to capture from Labour to win a majority. It may be; certainly, I agree with you, it should; but we don't know that it is doing.
If @NickPalmer were still in Broxtowe I would have been interested to know how this is playing on the doorsteps. Perhaps some of our resident canvassers in (particularly North/Midlands) swing seats can volunteer whether it's something that's raised?0 -
At least we'll have chosen it rather than have had it imposed on us. That would mean a significant amount of 'taking responsibility' as people like you are always encouraging us to do.Richard_Nabavi said:Not that the choice is any better in Scotland. Nicola Sturgeon: "“If you are sick of the chaos [...] vote SNP to escape Brexit,”
Just imagine the chaos if Scotland finds itself simultaneously leaving the EU as part of the UK, trying to rejoin it as an independent state, and extricating itself from centuries of total economic integration with the UK.
Of course the people who said vote for the Union to stay in the EU and to avoid chaos are pretty much a busted flush. The mind boggles at what sort of argument to preserve the UK they'll make second time round.
0 -
You chose it either way.Theuniondivvie said:
At least we'll have chosen it rather than have had it imposed on us. That would mean a significant amount of 'taking responsibility' as people like you are always encouraging us to do.Richard_Nabavi said:Not that the choice is any better in Scotland. Nicola Sturgeon: "“If you are sick of the chaos [...] vote SNP to escape Brexit,”
Just imagine the chaos if Scotland finds itself simultaneously leaving the EU as part of the UK, trying to rejoin it as an independent state, and extricating itself from centuries of total economic integration with the UK.
Of course the people who said vote for the Union to stay in the EU and to avoid chaos are pretty much a busted flush. The mind boggles at what sort of argument to preserve the UK they'll make second time round.
You chose to vote for the Union knowing that an EU referendum was Tory policy.0 -
Cyclefree said:
Certainly, in conveyancing matters, when I was starting my career, some solicitors thought it entirely fair to lie to mortgage lenders on behalf of clients. I remember in 1994, I took over the case load of a partner who had died, and faced a number of negligence claims from mortgage lenders. On reading the files, it became clear that the issue was not negligence, but outright fraud. The firm was very lucky that the insurer paid out.Pierrot said:Cyclefree said:
From the SRA guidance for solicitors:-TheScreamingEagles said:
The Roman Catholic Church will oppose calls for priests to break the seal of the confessional to report admissions of child abuse, a public inquiry was told yesterday.
“Preventing harm to children or vulnerable adults
There may be circumstances involving children or vulnerable adults where you should consider revealing confidential information to an appropriate authority. This may be where the child or adult in question is the client and they reveal information which indicates they are suffering sexual or other abuse but refuse to allow disclosure of such information.
Similarly there may be situations where the client discloses abuse either by himself or herself or by another adult against a child or vulnerable adult but refuses to allow any disclosure. As noted above, the examples discussed do not allow for disclosure after the event, however you may have reason to be concerned about the risk of future harm.
You are not required by law to disclose this information. You must therefore consider whether the threat to the person’s life or health is sufficiently serious to justify a breach of the duty of confidentiality.”
I am no expert on what priests should do but I believe that they cannot give absolution and should tell the person to turn themselves in. They can also do so themselves. The issue is about whether they can be legally required to do do, just as in the case of solicitors. That is a more subtle point.
FWIW I think the issue of child abuse and its cover up is so wrong and has been so damaging to the Church that it ought to make it a requirement that priests becoming aware of such behaviour must report it.
These days, you'd be struck off for doing that, and possibly prosecuted as well.0 -
Except that under English law, priest-penitent privilege does not, I think, apply.Cyclefree said:
The point I am making is that the rule which has so outraged TSE in relation to Catholic priests is the same as the rule which applies to him as a solicitor...Pierrot said:
Beware all organisations (including professions) that where knowledge or information about serious crimes is concerned have a culture that puts loyalty to comrades or clients above disclosure to law enforcement.Cyclefree said:
From the SRA guidance for solicitors:-TheScreamingEagles said:
The Roman Catholic Church will oppose calls for priests to break the seal of the confessional to report admissions of child abuse, a public inquiry was told yesterday.
“Preventing harm to children or vulnerable adults
There may be circumstances involving children or vulnerable adults where you should consider revealing confidential information to an appropriate authority. This may be where the child or adult in question is the client and they reveal information which indicates they are suffering sexual or other abuse but refuse to allow disclosure of such information.
Similarly there may be situations where the client discloses abuse either by himself or herself or by another adult against a child or vulnerable adult but refuses to allow any disclosure. As noted above, the examples discussed do not allow for disclosure after the event, however you may have reason to be concerned about the risk of future harm.
You are not required by law to disclose this information. You must therefore consider whether the threat to the person’s life or health is sufficiently serious to justify a breach of the duty of confidentiality.”0 -
You are forgetting about EVFEL. At the moment it is the dog that hasn't barked as the Cons are running the UK and had a majority of 103 in England at the last election.Black_Rook said:
There'll be no large-scale MP defections from Labour. Any of the MPs from the 2017 Parliament who were going to leave have already done so, and their replacements will be loyalists. The remainder will stay in Labour at any cost, because they're fanatically tribal, think it's the only way to keep their jobs, or both.Big_G_NorthWales said:The last 24 hours has been a torrid time for labour and in particular Corbyn
Ian Austin and John Woodcock later joined by John Mann openly advocate voting for Boris. Tom Watson walks out leaving moderate labour mps marooned in Corbyn's labour party. Three candidates sacked for anti semitic remarks and Margaret Hodge refusing to endorse Corbyn as leader
The media are full of it and this issue is not going away no matter how much Corbyn supporters try to deflect it to other parties. It is now the narrative for the labour party and something will have to give
No matter the outcome between Boris and the lib dems labour are in a very bad and dark place. They will lose seats and labour mps returned to the HOC who are on the moderate wing will have a choice, support the leader they despise, or join with the lib dems creating a new centre left party, thereby stranding Corbyn and relegating his part of labour into third place behind a revitalised left leaning social democratic party that would enjoy wide support.
Also this election may be morrphing from Brexit into stop Corbyn any cost
Fantasy, maybe but impossible, no
Corbyn's abysmal ratings will do some damage to Labour, but they should still poll reasonably well. The impact of the antisemitism issue, amongst other things, will be limited because most Labour voters are robots and the bulk of Labour seats are held with large enough majorities to remain safe in any event.
It'll be touch and go whether the Conservatives get a majority, and if they do then the best the English party can do is to let the SNP have their second independence referendum and not try too hard to win it.
Scottish independence converts a thin Tory majority South of the Border into a large one. It's the most effective way to keep us safe from Labour, and should therefore be welcomed.0 -
Ruth Davidson spent most of 2014 saying the Tories wouldn't get into power.Philip_Thompson said:
You chose it either way.Theuniondivvie said:
At least we'll have chosen it rather than have had it imposed on us. That would mean a significant amount of 'taking responsibility' as people like you are always encouraging us to do.Richard_Nabavi said:Not that the choice is any better in Scotland. Nicola Sturgeon: "“If you are sick of the chaos [...] vote SNP to escape Brexit,”
Just imagine the chaos if Scotland finds itself simultaneously leaving the EU as part of the UK, trying to rejoin it as an independent state, and extricating itself from centuries of total economic integration with the UK.
Of course the people who said vote for the Union to stay in the EU and to avoid chaos are pretty much a busted flush. The mind boggles at what sort of argument to preserve the UK they'll make second time round.
You chose to vote for the Union knowing that an EU referendum was Tory policy.0 -
Thanks148grss said:Someone mentioned this interview, here is a link:
twitter.com/brexit_sham/status/1192748185783062528?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
0 -
The comment was slightly tongue in cheek. NE Fife has always felt itself distinct (for which read superior) to the rest of the county, and there was much wailing and gnashing of teeth when the old District council of NE Fife was subsumed into the Fife unitary authority. But it is quite a distinct place and very much NE Fife rather than Fife NE.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Lots of issues like that slip in, I've noticed discrepancies with poll cards and such a few timesOnlyLivingBoy said:
NE Fife, not Fife NE!Alistair said:
Is that a scotland only poll?marke09 said:Latest polling in Scotland:
25 point lead for the SNP
Conservative 22%
Labour 10%
Lib Dem 8%
SNP 47%
Brexit Party 5%
Green 8%
YouGov/The Times/Sky 5-6 Nov
That's Kaboom territory.
That is annihilatory LD don't even win Fife NE, Conservatives down to 3 seats level.0 -
Mr. Alistair, in her defence, a year later we had the polls running a dead heat for about six months. And then polling day was wildly different.0
-
Is that to do with the St Andrews university donariat, cf. Cambridge and Cambridgeshire?OnlyLivingBoy said:
The comment was slightly tongue in cheek. NE Fife has always felt itself distinct (for which read superior) to the rest of the county, and there was much wailing and gnashing of teeth when the old District council of NE Fife was subsumed into the Fife unitary authority. But it is quite a distinct place and very much NE Fife rather than Fife NE.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Lots of issues like that slip in, I've noticed discrepancies with poll cards and such a few timesOnlyLivingBoy said:
NE Fife, not Fife NE!Alistair said:
Is that a scotland only poll?marke09 said:Latest polling in Scotland:
25 point lead for the SNP
Conservative 22%
Labour 10%
Lib Dem 8%
SNP 47%
Brexit Party 5%
Green 8%
YouGov/The Times/Sky 5-6 Nov
That's Kaboom territory.
That is annihilatory LD don't even win Fife NE, Conservatives down to 3 seats level.0 -
The case for a second referendum on Scottish Independence is infinitely stronger than that for a second on EU membership. Something substantial actually has changed.Philip_Thompson said:
You chose it either way.Theuniondivvie said:
At least we'll have chosen it rather than have had it imposed on us. That would mean a significant amount of 'taking responsibility' as people like you are always encouraging us to do.Richard_Nabavi said:Not that the choice is any better in Scotland. Nicola Sturgeon: "“If you are sick of the chaos [...] vote SNP to escape Brexit,”
Just imagine the chaos if Scotland finds itself simultaneously leaving the EU as part of the UK, trying to rejoin it as an independent state, and extricating itself from centuries of total economic integration with the UK.
Of course the people who said vote for the Union to stay in the EU and to avoid chaos are pretty much a busted flush. The mind boggles at what sort of argument to preserve the UK they'll make second time round.
You chose to vote for the Union knowing that an EU referendum was Tory policy.0 -
We’re running blind without polls and with very limited anecdotal evidence, by-election info and suchlike, but my guess is that Ruth’s departure is actually *assisting* the SCon vote rather than hindering it. Early guess is:Alistair said:
I'm holding off my first official forecast until we see a Scotland only poll but so far I'm thinkingDavidL said:
So what's your forecast for Scotland in 2019?Alistair said:
Yes, my Scotland tipping is exemplary. Once I go outside the bounds and bet on GB wide stuff my betting goes off a cliff.TheScreamingEagles said:
You also tipped the SCons to do very well in 2017.Alistair said:In 2015 I placed a speculative bet in Labour most seats.
It did not come off.
In 2017 I placed a sure thing bet on Con majority.
It did not come off.
I am now considering a significant Conservative most seats bet.
I am saying this to give PB forewarning.
My guess, FWIW, is
Tories 8 (-5)
Labour 2 (-5)
Lib Dem 4 (N/C)
SNP 45 (+10)
Tories 5 (-8)
Labour 1 (-6)
Libe Dem 5 (+1)
SNP 48 (+13)
But I am starting to wonder if Angus will be a surprise Conservative hold. It's basically the only seat that showed an actual SNP to Con movement at the last election rather than fake movement caused by churn.
SNP 42 (+7)
SCon 9 (-4)
SLD 7 (+3)
SLab 1 (-6)0 -
Talking to older insurance brokers, there were those who maintained a similar attitude towards clients who had made probably fraudulent claims.Cyclefree said:
Certainly, in conveyancing matters, when I was starting my career, some solicitors thought it entirely fair to lie to mortgage lenders on behalf of clients. I remember in 1994, I took over the case load of a partner who had died, and faced a number of negligence claims from mortgage lenders. On reading the files, it became clear that the issue was not negligence, but outright fraud. The firm was very lucky that the insurer paid out.Pierrot said:
I am no expert on what priests should do but I believe that they cannot give absolution and should tell the person to turn themselves in. They can also do so themselves. The issue is about whether they can be legally required to do do, just as in the case of solicitors. That is a more subtle point.Cyclefree said:
From the SRA guidance for solicitors:-TheScreamingEagles said:
The Roman Catholic Church will oppose calls for priests to break the seal of the confessional to report admissions of child abuse, a public inquiry was told yesterday.
“Preventing harm to children or vulnerable adults
There may be circumstances involving children or vulnerable adults where you should consider revealing confidential information to an appropriate authority. This may be where the child or adult in question is the client and they reveal information which indicates they are suffering sexual or other abuse but refuse to allow disclosure of such information.
Similarly there may be situations where the client discloses abuse either by himself or herself or by another adult against a child or vulnerable adult but refuses to allow any disclosure. As noted above, the examples discussed do not allow for disclosure after the event, however you may have reason to be concerned about the risk of future harm.
You are not required by law to disclose this information. You must therefore consider whether the threat to the person’s life or health is sufficiently serious to justify a breach of the duty of confidentiality.”
FWIW I think the issue of child abuse and its cover up is so wrong and has been so damaging to the Church that it ought to make it a requirement that priests becoming aware of such behaviour must report it.
Not so much, these days.0 -
I've never seen that but the Tories already were in Downing St in 2014, hard to take seriously the idea they couldn't possibly still be in it after 2015.Alistair said:
Ruth Davidson spent most of 2014 saying the Tories wouldn't get into power.Philip_Thompson said:
You chose it either way.Theuniondivvie said:
At least we'll have chosen it rather than have had it imposed on us. That would mean a significant amount of 'taking responsibility' as people like you are always encouraging us to do.Richard_Nabavi said:Not that the choice is any better in Scotland. Nicola Sturgeon: "“If you are sick of the chaos [...] vote SNP to escape Brexit,”
Just imagine the chaos if Scotland finds itself simultaneously leaving the EU as part of the UK, trying to rejoin it as an independent state, and extricating itself from centuries of total economic integration with the UK.
Of course the people who said vote for the Union to stay in the EU and to avoid chaos are pretty much a busted flush. The mind boggles at what sort of argument to preserve the UK they'll make second time round.
You chose to vote for the Union knowing that an EU referendum was Tory policy.
Either way, if you don't want the English voting in UK elections and having that apply to you on UK matters there is only one viable solution. The only way Scotland can determine its future independently is to have an independent future - if Scotland chooses to remain in the UK it will be bound to UK solutions.0 -
Sean_F said:
Nothing much has changed. I was Underwriting Director for a major insurer. We knew the identities of the solicitors (in the North West mainly) who were the organisers of "Crash for Cash" scams. But nothing was done by police or regulatory bodies.Cyclefree said:
Certainly, in conveyancing matters, when I was starting my career, some solicitors thought it entirely fair to lie to mortgage lenders on behalf of clients. I remember in 1994, I took over the case load of a partner who had died, and faced a number of negligence claims from mortgage lenders. On reading the files, it became clear that the issue was not negligence, but outright fraud. The firm was very lucky that the insurer paid out.Pierrot said:Cyclefree said:
From the SRA guidance for solicitors:-TheScreamingEagles said:
The Roman Catholic Church will oppose calls for priests to break the seal of the confessional to report admissions of child abuse, a public inquiry was told yesterday.
“Preventing harm to children or vulnerable adults
There may be circumstances involving children or vulnerable adults where you should consider revealing confidential information to an appropriate authority. This may be where the child or adult in question is the client and they reveal information which indicates they are suffering sexual or other abuse but refuse to allow disclosure of such information.
Similarly there may be situations where the client discloses abuse either by himself or herself or by another adult against a child or vulnerable adult but refuses to allow any disclosure. As noted above, the examples discussed do not allow for disclosure after the event, however you may have reason to be concerned about the risk of future harm.
You are not required by law to disclose this information. You must therefore consider whether the threat to the person’s life or health is sufficiently serious to justify a breach of the duty of confidentiality.”
I am no expert on what priests should do but I believe that they cannot give absolution and should tell the person to turn themselves in. They can also do so themselves. The issue is about whether they can be legally required to do do, just as in the case of solicitors. That is a more subtle point.
FWIW I think the issue of child abuse and its cover up is so wrong and has been so damaging to the Church that it ought to make it a requirement that priests becoming aware of such behaviour must report it.
These days, you'd be struck off for doing that, and possibly prosecuted as well.0 -
It is why I could never enter politics. I could never sit there and spout party lines that are obvious trash. I am not perfect, but at least I have enough self-respect not to indulge in that kind of ...... junk? hypocrisy? farce?Nigelb said:
Nick Robinson has improved his act.148grss said:Someone mentioned this interview, here is a link:
twitter.com/brexit_sham/status/1192748185783062528?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
"That's like saying 'a food based diet'..." LOL
Then the idiot minister insists on repeating the line in response to every question.
I am not sure what the correct word is that describes that.0 -
I know the Koreans are not terrifically fond of the Japanese, but this was something of a surprise:
Nearly half of South Koreans would back North in war with Japan, while 40% 'have no idea'
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/11/08/national/politics-diplomacy/nearly-half-south-koreans-back-north-vs-japan/#.XcVXdy10cW80 -
Yes, i think this is right.StuartDickson said:
We’re running blind without polls and with very limited anecdotal evidence, by-election info and suchlike, but my guess is that Ruth’s departure is actually *assisting* the SCon vote rather than hindering it. Early guess is:Alistair said:
I'm holding off my first official forecast until we see a Scotland only poll but so far I'm thinkingDavidL said:
So what's your forecast for Scotland in 2019?Alistair said:
Yes, my Scotland tipping is exemplary. Once I go outside the bounds and bet on GB wide stuff my betting goes off a cliff.TheScreamingEagles said:
You also tipped the SCons to do very well in 2017.Alistair said:In 2015 I placed a speculative bet in Labour most seats.
It did not come off.
In 2017 I placed a sure thing bet on Con majority.
It did not come off.
I am now considering a significant Conservative most seats bet.
I am saying this to give PB forewarning.
My guess, FWIW, is
Tories 8 (-5)
Labour 2 (-5)
Lib Dem 4 (N/C)
SNP 45 (+10)
Tories 5 (-8)
Labour 1 (-6)
Libe Dem 5 (+1)
SNP 48 (+13)
But I am starting to wonder if Angus will be a surprise Conservative hold. It's basically the only seat that showed an actual SNP to Con movement at the last election rather than fake movement caused by churn.
SNP 42 (+7)
SCon 9 (-4)
SLD 7 (+3)
SLab 1 (-6)
SCON vote will hold up much better than people expect because they are going to hold a raft of seats in the E and NE they're expected to lose. Not least, there is considerable disenchantment with the nats in this part of the world because people see their local services have deteriorated.0
