politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A key GE19 battleground: The GE2017 Tories who voted Remain
Comments
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Mr. Royale, that's the joy of modern politics. There's the far left, and an alternative led by an egotistical incompetent.0
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It's not though, the person responsible for the collapse of the rape case is long since out of the picture and Cairns denies any wrongdoing. This is just journalists trying to force feed a narrativeAnorak said:Slow-motion train-wreck continues.
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/11920560817674240010 -
It shouldn't be just a matter of shrugging shoulders and tolerating "dodgy" falsehoods that can materially affect election results.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Early contender in the 'most dodgy graph in a leaflet' competition, and it's the Lib Dems. They've been strong in this category before, but the Scottish Tories might run them close this year.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1192044683742056449
This is from the same party that successfully petitioned for a 2010 election result to be declared void by virtue of a candidate "knowingly making false statements". Is it open to the courts to intervene during rather than after an election campaign, for example in placing injunctions against the distribution of leaflets making blatantly false claims?0 -
Re criticism of Swinson being misogynist or not -
Much of the negative feedback mentions her "lecturing" style and her self-righteous "mumsnet" vibe. This sort of thing.
Language, as always, repays our close attention.0 -
I don’t expect the LDs to advance very far in the south west.AndyJS said:
A potential problem for the LDs is that they have a lot of mostly older voters who are what you might call "traditional Liberals" who've been supporting the party and its predecessors since the 1970s, and I'm not sure they're all that keen on things like identity politics. A lot of these types of voters live in the South West.Casino_Royale said:On topic, I wouldn’t vote Liberal Democrat in a month of Sundays. At the end of the day, I don’t share their principles or values - the latest incarnation of which is pure identity politics. Nor would I vote for The Brexit Party. And, of course, I wouldn’t vote Labour in a million years. If it came to abandoning the Conservatives I’d either abstain or look to back an independent Conservative or even an independent.
I haven’t made a final decision how I’m going to vote yet but luckily my local MP is Damien Hinds, who’s very much a voice of sanity.
I’ve been in dialogue with him expressing my concern that the Conservatives don’t lose their mantle as the party of good responsible government, but I don’t know how influential he is in the circles that matter. Still, as long as people like he and Jeremy Hunt on the backbenches then there is hope.
My biggest concern is I don’t really know what Boris will do with a decent majority (I don’t trust him nor take him at his word) and I have serious reservations about the competence of some of his top team. So I’m worried I might end up regretting my vote as he uses it as a mandate to justify whatever he wants, and it might actually be a fairly chaotic administration.
I won’t make a final decision until the manifesto is published.0 -
I am fully expecting Labour to announce something along the lines of the US halfway house model of "for medical use"...in which anybody with any random unspecified pain can get a card.kyf_100 said:I wonder how much of a game changer it would be if one of the parties put the legalisation of cannabis into their manifesto.
It seems like natural territory for the Lib Dems and actually proves they have policies beyond Brexit.
For the Tories it could help win over younger voters and prove they aren't authoritarians like the May era.
And of course Labour could claim the tax revenues raised might actually help pay for the massive increase in spending they propose.0 -
Thanks.Peter_the_Punter said:
I applaud the decision, CR.Casino_Royale said:On topic, I wouldn’t vote Liberal Democrat in a month of Sundays. At the end of the day, I don’t share their principles or values - the latest incarnation of which is pure identity politics. Nor would I vote for The Brexit Party. And, of course, I wouldn’t vote Labour in a million years. If it came to abandoning the Conservatives I’d either abstain or look to back an independent Conservative or even an independent.
I haven’t made a final decision how I’m going to vote yet but luckily my local MP is Damien Hinds, who’s very much a voice of sanity.
I’ve been in dialogue with him expressing my concern that the Conservatives don’t lose their mantle as the party of good responsible government, but I don’t know how influential he is in the circles that matter. Still, as long as people like he and Jeremy Hunt on the backbenches then there is hope.
My biggest concern is I don’t really know what Boris will do with a decent majority (I don’t trust him nor take him at his word) and I have serious reservations about the competence of some of his top team. So I’m worried I might end up regretting my vote as he uses it as a mandate to justify whatever he wants, and it might actually be a fairly chaotic administration.
I won’t make a final decision until the manifesto is published.
I have no such dilemmas. My MP is Laurence Robertson who is to be found at the more demented end of the ERG Group. Since we are talking North West Gloucestershire, he doesn't lack for support.
My partner has a similar problem to you though. Her visceral dislike of Corbyn has to be balanced against admiration for the local Labour MP, Tulip Siddiq. The mood music at the moment suggests a switch to LD, but I'll keep you informed.0 -
Yet another reason to oppose it then.Anorak said:
On the upside(!) it would give Nigel a chance. 8th time lucky!Richard_Tyndall said:
Trouble is that PR would probably make what we have had for the last 3 years the norm going forward.Blue_rog said:I really feel that if there is no clear majority after this GE then there will be serious discussions of moving to a form of PR, accompanied by a complete shake up of the party systems.
Looking back at the complete horlicks of the past three years this may not be a bad thing.
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It might win over young adults, but not the young who actually get off their arses and vote. Boom Boom!kyf_100 said:I wonder how much of a game changer it would be if one of the parties put the legalisation of cannabis into their manifesto.
It seems like natural territory for the Lib Dems and actually proves they have policies beyond Brexit.
For the Tories it could help win over younger voters and prove they aren't authoritarians like the May era.
And of course Labour could claim the tax revenues raised might actually help pay for the massive increase in spending they propose.0 -
GE2015 also sends it's regards.Casino_Royale said:
GE2017 says hi.Pulpstar said:
I'm running into internal contradictions very quickly indeed in my Lab minority scenario. Looks like a recipe for chaos !Noo said:
Which incoming Labour leader do you think will agree to an independence referendum in Scotland, and why do you think the Lib Dems would vote for it?Pulpstar said:A Lib Dem propped up Labour minority Gov't likely involves a change of leader in the Labour party, a renegotiation with the EU, another referendum in Scotland and another EU referendum.
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No they won't. 3.5% of GDP added to a deficit we already have, with high debt-to-GDP already, is under no definition reasonable.Noo said:
I wouldn't say out of control. Higher than the fiscal hawks would have it be, too high for Tory tastes.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed and three years into Cameron's government we were desperately trying to bring down borrowing because it was out of control, not deliberately trying to increase it!Noo said:
Terrible! That would take borrowing back to levels not seen since... [checks notes] three years into Cameron's government.Philip_Thompson said:
Lets borrow a trillion pounds over the next decade . . . for our chidren's sake.Big_G_NorthWales said:Greens just announced £100 billion a year for the next 10 years for the climate change policies paid for by borrowing £91 billion per annum an £9 billion from corporation tax
There isn't a Facepalm big enough. 🤦♂️
For context, the Green plan as I understand it would take our current levels of borrowing from about the same as Greece's, to about the same as the USA's.
The original post was really just a piece of rhetoric, aggregating ten years to make the figure sound bigger. The yearly figure of 91bn is a little under 3.5% of UK GDP. Tastes will vary as to whether that's desirable or not, but it's nowhere near unreasonable.0 -
One in the eyes of the commentariat, where the tories are having a nightmare.contrarian said:There are two elections going on, it seems.
One in the eyes of the commentariat, where the tories are having a nightmare.
And one in the eyes of the voters, where the tories are twenty points ahead of labour on trust to run the economy.
One in the eyes of the polling companies, where the tories are twenty points ahead of labour on trust to run the economy.
And one in the eyes of the voters who are thinking about christmas.0 -
As I said earlier, society is both mildly misogynistic and mildly misandrist. Or, more accurately, women and men are different and tend to poke holes in each others differences. Unless we create an androgynous, sterile (figuratively) society it will ever be thus, and is not particularly harmful because of it.kinabalu said:Re criticism of Swinson being misogynist or not -
Much of the negative feedback mentions her "lecturing" style and her self-righteous "mumsnet" vibe. This sort of thing.
Language, as always, repays our close attention.0 -
Quelle surprise! It was only a few months ago that a freshly convicted felon stood as a Tory candidate and you have a proven liar as leader, so Mr Cairns decision to stand is hardly surprising. After all, he has not been convicted of anything so, at present, he is lilly-white compared to someBig_G_NorthWales said:Cairns still planning to stand
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All quiet from WH2016Pro_Rata said:
GE2015 also sends it's regards.Casino_Royale said:
GE2017 says hi.Pulpstar said:
I'm running into internal contradictions very quickly indeed in my Lab minority scenario. Looks like a recipe for chaos !Noo said:
Which incoming Labour leader do you think will agree to an independence referendum in Scotland, and why do you think the Lib Dems would vote for it?Pulpstar said:A Lib Dem propped up Labour minority Gov't likely involves a change of leader in the Labour party, a renegotiation with the EU, another referendum in Scotland and another EU referendum.
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Even more reason to be studied by Politics students, with a course title like, "How Populism changes the rules in election campaigns."GIN1138 said:
I have a feeling Con will be slightly UP in this weekends polls and the MSM will be left scratching their heads on Saturday night...rottenborough said:
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When has innocent before proven guilty turned into guiltyBeibheirli_C said:
Quelle surprise! It was only a few months ago that a freshly convicted felon stood as a Tory candidate and you have a proven liar as leader, so Mr Cairns decision to stand is hardly surprising.Big_G_NorthWales said:Cairns still planning to stand
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He wont be convicted either, hes not accused of a crime.Beibheirli_C said:
Quelle surprise! It was only a few months ago that a freshly convicted felon stood as a Tory candidate and you have a proven liar as leader, so Mr Cairns decision to stand is hardly surprising. After all, he has not been convicted of anything so, at present, he is lilly-white compared to someBig_G_NorthWales said:Cairns still planning to stand
If accusation is enough to stop you standing there wouldn't be many candidates0 -
The legalisation of cannabis is Lib Dem party policy, I think.kyf_100 said:I wonder how much of a game changer it would be if one of the parties put the legalisation of cannabis into their manifesto.
It seems like natural territory for the Lib Dems and actually proves they have policies beyond Brexit.
For the Tories it could help win over younger voters and prove they aren't authoritarians like the May era.
And of course Labour could claim the tax revenues raised might actually help pay for the massive increase in spending they propose.0 -
Stocks or pillory?TheScreamingEagles said:
The country says bring back George Osborne.Big_G_NorthWales said:POLL: The Saj is ahead of John McDonnell on who you want to run economy and set taxes
But voters don't think the economy is as well run as it was in 2015
Another cracking poll by @IpsosMORI poll in tonight's @EveningStandard
https://t.co/TAphcxtuxb0 -
Exactly.dyedwoolie said:
He wont be convicted either, hes not accused of a crime.Beibheirli_C said:
Quelle surprise! It was only a few months ago that a freshly convicted felon stood as a Tory candidate and you have a proven liar as leader, so Mr Cairns decision to stand is hardly surprising. After all, he has not been convicted of anything so, at present, he is lilly-white compared to someBig_G_NorthWales said:Cairns still planning to stand
If accusation is enough to stop you standing there wouldn't be many candidates0 -
How the public is so sickeded by a partisan commentariat pile-on that their opinion shifts in the opposite direction to the one intended...OblitusSumMe said:
Even more reason to be studied by Politics students, with a course title like, "How Populism changes the rules in election campaigns."GIN1138 said:
I have a feeling Con will be slightly UP in this weekends polls and the MSM will be left scratching their heads on Saturday night...rottenborough said:0 -
Oop, we're straying in to fanfiction here. Pull back, pull back!blueblue said:
How the public is so sickeded by a partisan commentariat pile-on that their opinion shifts in the opposite direction to the one intended...OblitusSumMe said:
Even more reason to be studied by Politics students, with a course title like, "How Populism changes the rules in election campaigns."GIN1138 said:
I have a feeling Con will be slightly UP in this weekends polls and the MSM will be left scratching their heads on Saturday night...rottenborough said:0 -
I had not finished typing. Touchpads are the work of the devil.Big_G_NorthWales said:
When has innocent before proven guilty turned into guiltyBeibheirli_C said:
Quelle surprise! It was only a few months ago that a freshly convicted felon stood as a Tory candidate and you have a proven liar as leader, so Mr Cairns decision to stand is hardly surprising.Big_G_NorthWales said:Cairns still planning to stand
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I'm old enough to remeber 2017 an Jezza coming out with "Many experts, including professionals in our intelligence and security services, have pointed out the connections between wars that we’ve been involved in or supported and fought in, in other countries such as Libya, and terrorism here at home," and PB going into meltdown and saying that Corbyn had destroyed Labour and it would be a 200 seat majority. THen polling came out showing the majority of people agreed with him. And Guru-Murthy managed to get Fallon to attack Boris Johnson live on air.contrarian said:There are two elections going on, it seems.
One in the eyes of the commentariat, where the tories are having a nightmare.
And one in the eyes of the voters, where the tories are twenty points ahead of labour on trust to run the economy.0 -
You're in for a surpriseCasino_Royale said:
I don’t expect the LDs to advance very far in the south west.AndyJS said:
A potential problem for the LDs is that they have a lot of mostly older voters who are what you might call "traditional Liberals" who've been supporting the party and its predecessors since the 1970s, and I'm not sure they're all that keen on things like identity politics. A lot of these types of voters live in the South West.Casino_Royale said:On topic, I wouldn’t vote Liberal Democrat in a month of Sundays. At the end of the day, I don’t share their principles or values - the latest incarnation of which is pure identity politics. Nor would I vote for The Brexit Party. And, of course, I wouldn’t vote Labour in a million years. If it came to abandoning the Conservatives I’d either abstain or look to back an independent Conservative or even an independent.
I haven’t made a final decision how I’m going to vote yet but luckily my local MP is Damien Hinds, who’s very much a voice of sanity.
I’ve been in dialogue with him expressing my concern that the Conservatives don’t lose their mantle as the party of good responsible government, but I don’t know how influential he is in the circles that matter. Still, as long as people like he and Jeremy Hunt on the backbenches then there is hope.
My biggest concern is I don’t really know what Boris will do with a decent majority (I don’t trust him nor take him at his word) and I have serious reservations about the competence of some of his top team. So I’m worried I might end up regretting my vote as he uses it as a mandate to justify whatever he wants, and it might actually be a fairly chaotic administration.
I won’t make a final decision until the manifesto is published.0 -
Because anything you disagree with is unreasonable, right?Philip_Thompson said:
No they won't. 3.5% of GDP added to a deficit we already have, with high debt-to-GDP already, is under no definition reasonable.Noo said:
I wouldn't say out of control. Higher than the fiscal hawks would have it be, too high for Tory tastes.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed and three years into Cameron's government we were desperately trying to bring down borrowing because it was out of control, not deliberately trying to increase it!Noo said:
Terrible! That would take borrowing back to levels not seen since... [checks notes] three years into Cameron's government.Philip_Thompson said:
Lets borrow a trillion pounds over the next decade . . . for our chidren's sake.Big_G_NorthWales said:Greens just announced £100 billion a year for the next 10 years for the climate change policies paid for by borrowing £91 billion per annum an £9 billion from corporation tax
There isn't a Facepalm big enough. 🤦♂️
For context, the Green plan as I understand it would take our current levels of borrowing from about the same as Greece's, to about the same as the USA's.
The original post was really just a piece of rhetoric, aggregating ten years to make the figure sound bigger. The yearly figure of 91bn is a little under 3.5% of UK GDP. Tastes will vary as to whether that's desirable or not, but it's nowhere near unreasonable.
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They should stick it on the side of a bus. It will probably win them more votes than "bollocks to brexit". Pretty much everyone knows the lib dems stand for revoke, I can't help but feel like the lib dems are doing badly at the moment because people don't know what else they stand for.FeersumEnjineeya said:
The legalisation of cannabis is Lib Dem party policy, I think.kyf_100 said:I wonder how much of a game changer it would be if one of the parties put the legalisation of cannabis into their manifesto.
It seems like natural territory for the Lib Dems and actually proves they have policies beyond Brexit.
For the Tories it could help win over younger voters and prove they aren't authoritarians like the May era.
And of course Labour could claim the tax revenues raised might actually help pay for the massive increase in spending they propose.
General elections can't be fought on single issues. May tried that in 2017 and got outflanked by Corbyn. Labour's USP in 2019 will be soak the rich, free owls for all. The Tories will go hard on tax cuts and more money in your pocket. What do the lib dems stand for?0 -
Boris making all the right noises on Brexit here. It's a message he will hammer home about uncertainty and more referendums.0
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blueblue said:
How the public is so sickeded by a partisan commentariat pile-on that their opinion shifts in the opposite direction to the one intended...OblitusSumMe said:
Even more reason to be studied by Politics students, with a course title like, "How Populism changes the rules in election campaigns."GIN1138 said:
I have a feeling Con will be slightly UP in this weekends polls and the MSM will be left scratching their heads on Saturday night...rottenborough said:
said without a trace or irony.
God, how happy an existence it would be, to be as stupid as you.0 -
Ah, on the twitter thread you can see the footnote which shows they've used the output from the Flavible seat predictor using a YouGov national poll.Wulfrun_Phil said:
It shouldn't be just a matter of shrugging shoulders and tolerating "dodgy" falsehoods that can materially affect election results.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Early contender in the 'most dodgy graph in a leaflet' competition, and it's the Lib Dems. They've been strong in this category before, but the Scottish Tories might run them close this year.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1192044683742056449
This is from the same party that successfully petitioned for a 2010 election result to be declared void by virtue of a candidate "knowingly making false statements". Is it open to the courts to intervene during rather than after an election campaign, for example in placing injunctions against the distribution of leaflets making blatantly false claims?
While that's not quite completely made up, I could see why YouGov would be unhappy about having their name attached to it. Using the BestForBritain MRP would have been more defensible - as it's precisely the sort of arguments they wanted it used for.0 -
I hear Alun Cairns is very friendly with Liz Truss.0
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Tory MP Mims Davies is attempting to move from Eastleigh, which voted Leave, to Mid Sussex, which voted Remain. Makes sense.0
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Has the site's Mr Smithson just tweeted a new poll from Ipsos Mori?0
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I have a well-worn axe to grind here - I think that voters who don't fully identify with any party really should spend time looking at the actual candidates. For two reasons:Peter_the_Punter said:
My partner has a similar problem to you though. Her visceral dislike of Corbyn has to be balanced against admiration for the local Labour MP, Tulip Siddiq. The mood music at the moment suggests a switch to LD, but I'll keep you informed.
1. We routinely rubbish people as lobby fodder, but if we vote for parties regardless of whether their candidates are good, we incentivise people who don't bother to think for themselves and punish people who take their job seriously.
2. Contrary to popular belief, the willingness of backbenchers on both sides to take a principled decision, sometimes at real personal cost, has been absolutely crucial in shaping how the Brexit process worked. You can agree with their decisions or disagree with them, but it's nuts to ignore their importance.
Looking forward, it seems unlikely that anyone will get a crushing majority to do what they want. So it will make a major difference to a Johnson government what kind of backbenchers he has, and exactly the same applies to a Corbyn government. Taking an interest in defending good MPs and dumping bad ones is crucially important, and floating off to abstention or ballot-spoiling or hopeless candidates is a real missed opportunity.
(Rant over.)1 -
I remember our local Tory making an issue out of this for LDs in 2017FeersumEnjineeya said:
The legalisation of cannabis is Lib Dem party policy, I think.kyf_100 said:I wonder how much of a game changer it would be if one of the parties put the legalisation of cannabis into their manifesto.
It seems like natural territory for the Lib Dems and actually proves they have policies beyond Brexit.
For the Tories it could help win over younger voters and prove they aren't authoritarians like the May era.
And of course Labour could claim the tax revenues raised might actually help pay for the massive increase in spending they propose.0 -
Right. If you interpret the Leave victory in the referendum as a big "F--- you" to the perceived elite consensus, then that's precisely the result you would expect.blueblue said:
How the public is so sickeded by a partisan commentariat pile-on that their opinion shifts in the opposite direction to the one intended...OblitusSumMe said:
Even more reason to be studied by Politics students, with a course title like, "How Populism changes the rules in election campaigns."GIN1138 said:
I have a feeling Con will be slightly UP in this weekends polls and the MSM will be left scratching their heads on Saturday night...rottenborough said:
It's a pretty nihilistic mood. Broadly something that has been articulated on here by some posters about their intention to vote to upset the current status quo, where the status quo is understood to mean whatever the London media bubble regards as normal and right, rather than the people who are currently in charge.0 -
Is that based on anything in particular, Mr Royale, or just a hunch?Casino_Royale said:
I don’t expect the LDs to advance very far in the south west.AndyJS said:
A potential problem for the LDs is that they have a lot of mostly older voters who are what you might call "traditional Liberals" who've been supporting the party and its predecessors since the 1970s, and I'm not sure they're all that keen on things like identity politics. A lot of these types of voters live in the South West.Casino_Royale said:On topic, I wouldn’t vote Liberal Democrat in a month of Sundays. At the end of the day, I don’t share their principles or values - the latest incarnation of which is pure identity politics. Nor would I vote for The Brexit Party. And, of course, I wouldn’t vote Labour in a million years. If it came to abandoning the Conservatives I’d either abstain or look to back an independent Conservative or even an independent.
I haven’t made a final decision how I’m going to vote yet but luckily my local MP is Damien Hinds, who’s very much a voice of sanity.
I’ve been in dialogue with him expressing my concern that the Conservatives don’t lose their mantle as the party of good responsible government, but I don’t know how influential he is in the circles that matter. Still, as long as people like he and Jeremy Hunt on the backbenches then there is hope.
My biggest concern is I don’t really know what Boris will do with a decent majority (I don’t trust him nor take him at his word) and I have serious reservations about the competence of some of his top team. So I’m worried I might end up regretting my vote as he uses it as a mandate to justify whatever he wants, and it might actually be a fairly chaotic administration.
I won’t make a final decision until the manifesto is published.0 -
This thread has just Resigned0
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I think that many Lib Dem eyes will be on the next election rather than this one. The main purpose now is to be seen as the party that tried hardest to stop the car-crash that Brexit will inevitably become, under full ownership of the Tory Leavers. That's why Brexit is currently subservient to the traditional Lib Dem policies of personal freedom and environmental protection.kyf_100 said:
They should stick it on the side of a bus. It will probably win them more votes than "bollocks to brexit". Pretty much everyone knows the lib dems stand for revoke, I can't help but feel like the lib dems are doing badly at the moment because people don't know what else they stand for.FeersumEnjineeya said:
The legalisation of cannabis is Lib Dem party policy, I think.kyf_100 said:I wonder how much of a game changer it would be if one of the parties put the legalisation of cannabis into their manifesto.
It seems like natural territory for the Lib Dems and actually proves they have policies beyond Brexit.
For the Tories it could help win over younger voters and prove they aren't authoritarians like the May era.
And of course Labour could claim the tax revenues raised might actually help pay for the massive increase in spending they propose.
General elections can't be fought on single issues. May tried that in 2017 and got outflanked by Corbyn. Labour's USP in 2019 will be soak the rich, free owls for all. The Tories will go hard on tax cuts and more money in your pocket. What do the lib dems stand for?0 -
How many Labour backbenchers were willing to take a principled decision to vote for a (Conservative) deal in order to ensure a smooth Brexit. Or would that have come at a "real personal cost" to them? That, very nearly as much as anything (and my view is that primarily to blame are the ERG and the DUP) has been crucial in shaping how the Brexit process worked.NickPalmer said:
I have a well-worn axe to grind here - I think that voters who don't fully identify with any party really should spend time looking at the actual candidates. For two reasons:Peter_the_Punter said:
My partner has a similar problem to you though. Her visceral dislike of Corbyn has to be balanced against admiration for the local Labour MP, Tulip Siddiq. The mood music at the moment suggests a switch to LD, but I'll keep you informed.
1. We routinely rubbish people as lobby fodder, but if we vote for parties regardless of whether their candidates are good, we incentivise people who don't bother to think for themselves and punish people who take their job seriously.
2. Contrary to popular belief, the willingness of backbenchers on both sides to take a principled decision, sometimes at real personal cost, has been absolutely crucial in shaping how the Brexit process worked. You can agree with their decisions or disagree with them, but it's nuts to ignore their importance.
Looking forward, it seems unlikely that anyone will get a crushing majority to do what they want. So it will make a major difference to a Johnson government what kind of backbenchers he has, and exactly the same applies to a Corbyn government. Taking an interest in defending good MPs and dumping bad ones is crucially important, and floating off to abstention or ballot-spoiling or hopeless candidates is a real missed opportunity.
(Rant over.)0 -
Cue Twitter obscenities and death threats from Brentford fans.Anorak said:Halcyon days. *dons rose-tinted shades*
https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1192056151409598469
Both of them.
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She should be turned down without a second’s thought. Doing a chicken run, deserting your previous constituency, is unpardonable (with the sole exception if the seat is altered/abolished because of boundary changes).AndyJS said:Tory MP Mims Davies is attempting to move from Eastleigh, which voted Leave, to Mid Sussex, which voted Remain. Makes sense.
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NEW THREAD
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https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2019-11/ipsos_mori_october_charts_06112019.pdf
This is a fascinating slide deck. The Government is plumbing ‘97 type depths but Boris isn’t, and he’s on the rise. I don’t quite follow that. It’s also notable that the Gvt will be lifted by Corbyn plumbing even greater depths.0 -
Their local government base is recovering well thoughCasino_Royale said:
I don’t expect the LDs to advance very far in the south west.AndyJS said:
A potential problem for the LDs is that they have a lot of mostly older voters who are what you might call "traditional Liberals" who've been supporting the party and its predecessors since the 1970s, and I'm not sure they're all that keen on things like identity politics. A lot of these types of voters live in the South West.Casino_Royale said:On topic, I wouldn’t vote Liberal Democrat in a month of Sundays. At the end of the day, I don’t share their principles or values - the latest incarnation of which is pure identity politics. Nor would I vote for The Brexit Party. And, of course, I wouldn’t vote Labour in a million years. If it came to abandoning the Conservatives I’d either abstain or look to back an independent Conservative or even an independent.
I haven’t made a final decision how I’m going to vote yet but luckily my local MP is Damien Hinds, who’s very much a voice of sanity.
I’ve been in dialogue with him expressing my concern that the Conservatives don’t lose their mantle as the party of good responsible government, but I don’t know how influential he is in the circles that matter. Still, as long as people like he and Jeremy Hunt on the backbenches then there is hope.
My biggest concern is I don’t really know what Boris will do with a decent majority (I don’t trust him nor take him at his word) and I have serious reservations about the competence of some of his top team. So I’m worried I might end up regretting my vote as he uses it as a mandate to justify whatever he wants, and it might actually be a fairly chaotic administration.
I won’t make a final decision until the manifesto is published.0 -
That's like choosing Gary Glitter to be your babysitter because the other choice is Fred West.contrarian said:There are two elections going on, it seems.
One in the eyes of the commentariat, where the tories are having a nightmare.
And one in the eyes of the voters, where the tories are twenty points ahead of labour on trust to run the economy.0 -
No because what is unaffordable is unreasonable.Noo said:
Because anything you disagree with is unreasonable, right?Philip_Thompson said:
No they won't. 3.5% of GDP added to a deficit we already have, with high debt-to-GDP already, is under no definition reasonable.Noo said:
I wouldn't say out of control. Higher than the fiscal hawks would have it be, too high for Tory tastes.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed and three years into Cameron's government we were desperately trying to bring down borrowing because it was out of control, not deliberately trying to increase it!Noo said:
Terrible! That would take borrowing back to levels not seen since... [checks notes] three years into Cameron's government.Philip_Thompson said:
Lets borrow a trillion pounds over the next decade . . . for our chidren's sake.Big_G_NorthWales said:Greens just announced £100 billion a year for the next 10 years for the climate change policies paid for by borrowing £91 billion per annum an £9 billion from corporation tax
There isn't a Facepalm big enough. 🤦♂️
For context, the Green plan as I understand it would take our current levels of borrowing from about the same as Greece's, to about the same as the USA's.
The original post was really just a piece of rhetoric, aggregating ten years to make the figure sound bigger. The yearly figure of 91bn is a little under 3.5% of UK GDP. Tastes will vary as to whether that's desirable or not, but it's nowhere near unreasonable.0 -
You did say that earlier, yes.dyedwoolie said:As I said earlier, society is both mildly misogynistic and mildly misandrist. Or, more accurately, women and men are different and tend to poke holes in each others differences. Unless we create an androgynous, sterile (figuratively) society it will ever be thus, and is not particularly harmful because of it.
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I doubt they will put Priti Corrupt in a forum where she may face forensic questioning about her past misdeeds.Anorak said:Like Labour, the Tories are becoming reliant on talentless and thick people because the decent ones have either left or been pushed.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/11920373940081704960 -
Winchester is already won. I would be in the City (support for Chuka plus easy exposure to a lazy London led media who will be more willing to travel a few hundred yards instead of miles).Nigelb said:
You'd think she might want to be in Win-chester, rather than Lewes...Pulpstar said:
Swinson - Lewesdyedwoolie said:Sweepstake time! Where will the three uk wide leaders be five weeks today on the last day of campaigning?
Johnson - Coventry South
Corbyn - Stroud0 -
Politics has been turned on its head.Anorak said:
That's like choosing Gary Glitter to be your babysitter because the other choice is Fred West.contrarian said:There are two elections going on, it seems.
One in the eyes of the commentariat, where the tories are having a nightmare.
And one in the eyes of the voters, where the tories are twenty points ahead of labour on trust to run the economy.
The tories are more right wing than ever.
Labour is proposing good ol' fashioned socialism.
Sedgefield is in play.
Bonkers.
PS I wouldn't want to be in Glitter's gang so I think I'd choose West.0 -
It was just a joke,alb1on said:
Winchester is already won. I would be in the City (support for Chuka plus easy exposure to a lazy London led media who will be more willing to travel a few hundred yards instead of miles).Nigelb said:
You'd think she might want to be in Win-chester, rather than Lewes...Pulpstar said:
Swinson - Lewesdyedwoolie said:Sweepstake time! Where will the three uk wide leaders be five weeks today on the last day of campaigning?
Johnson - Coventry South
Corbyn - Stroud
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