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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A key GE19 battleground: The GE2017 Tories who voted Remain

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  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    NEC deciding today if jew botherer williamson and coke and rent boys Vaz get to stand again, plus the Salma Yaqoob fun and games
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Andy Street didn’t even carry Coventry in the WM Mayoral elections in 2017. What makes you think Boris will?

    The Labour candidate is an absolute tool.
    This now seems to be a prerequisite for, rather than an impediment to, political office.
  • Blue_rog said:

    I really feel that if there is no clear majority after this GE then there will be serious discussions of moving to a form of PR, accompanied by a complete shake up of the party systems.

    Looking back at the complete horlicks of the past three years this may not be a bad thing.

    Trouble is that PR would probably make what we have had for the last 3 years the norm going forward.
  • Anorak said:

    Like Labour, the Tories are becoming reliant on talentless and thick people because the decent ones have either left or been pushed.
    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1192037394008170496

    Is the coward Boris Johnson about to repeat one of Mrs May’s blunders and chicken out of a debate?
    It has been said that neither Boris or Corbyn will take part in all the leaders debate
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Blue_rog said:

    I really feel that if there is no clear majority after this GE then there will be serious discussions of moving to a form of PR, accompanied by a complete shake up of the party systems.

    Looking back at the complete horlicks of the past three years this may not be a bad thing.

    About time.

    We economic and social liberals have been floating around 3 (or more) parties for far too long.

  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:

    Greens just announced £100 billion a year for the next 10 years for the climate change policies paid for by borrowing £91 billion per annum an £9 billion from corporation tax

    Lets borrow a trillion pounds over the next decade . . . for our chidren's sake.

    There isn't a Facepalm big enough. 🤦‍♂️
    Terrible! That would take borrowing back to levels not seen since... [checks notes] three years into Cameron's government.
    Indeed and three years into Cameron's government we were desperately trying to bring down borrowing because it was out of control, not deliberately trying to increase it!
    I wouldn't say out of control. Higher than the fiscal hawks would have it be, too high for Tory tastes.
    For context, the Green plan as I understand it would take our current levels of borrowing from about the same as Greece's, to about the same as the USA's.
    The original post was really just a piece of rhetoric, aggregating ten years to make the figure sound bigger. The yearly figure of 91bn is a little under 3.5% of UK GDP. Tastes will vary as to whether that's desirable or not, but it's nowhere near unreasonable.
  • NEC deciding today if jew botherer williamson and coke and rent boys Vaz get to stand again, plus the Salma Yaqoob fun and games

    Yaqoob has said she's not seeking a GE candidacy, according to the Twitter.

    Having watched the Tories meltdown over the last 24 hours, this is the NEC's big chance to hand the media a load of ammunition.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    NEC deciding today if jew botherer williamson and coke and rent boys Vaz get to stand again, plus the Salma Yaqoob fun and games

    Check out the #ReinstateChrisWilliamson "twitter storm" today. They've all been released from the asylum to join it.
  • Xtrain said:

    Dominic Grieve hasn't got a chance in hell of retaining Beaconsfield.
    He's standing for the pay off.
    Oh and a few more weeks in the spotlight.

    There is something not right that somebody can stand as an independent and, by virtue of getting not even one vote, can trouser tens of thousands of pounds. Perhaps it should be linked to at least saving their deposit. Give it an element of jeapordy...
    MPs should just be entitled to a pay off when they cease to be an MP after a GE, whether or not they chose to contest their seat. Are Jared O'Mara and Dominic Grieve more worthy of pay offs than others who have done no more than choose to retire? While IPSA remains accountable to no-one for their decisions, you have to wonder how it could be fixed.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Blue_rog said:

    I really feel that if there is no clear majority after this GE then there will be serious discussions of moving to a form of PR, accompanied by a complete shake up of the party systems.

    Looking back at the complete horlicks of the past three years this may not be a bad thing.

    Trouble is that PR would probably make what we have had for the last 3 years the norm going forward.
    On the upside(!) it would give Nigel a chance. 8th time lucky!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236

    Anorak said:

    Like Labour, the Tories are becoming reliant on talentless and thick people because the decent ones have either left or been pushed.
    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1192037394008170496

    Is the coward Boris Johnson about to repeat one of Mrs May’s blunders and chicken out of a debate?
    It has been said that neither Boris or Corbyn will take part in all the leaders debate
    They confining themselves to the two tools format ?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Very nice answer from Corbyn on how the average Leave voter and the average Remain voter have more interests in common than in conflict.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    kinabalu said:


    I want you to stop saying this. That Labour's Brexit plan is ludicrous.

    I have a clip of Jeremy explaining it which I will share shortly.

    It is ludicrous though.

    Absurdity through necessity I grant you but absurd none the less.
  • Nigelb said:

    Anorak said:

    Like Labour, the Tories are becoming reliant on talentless and thick people because the decent ones have either left or been pushed.
    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1192037394008170496

    Is the coward Boris Johnson about to repeat one of Mrs May’s blunders and chicken out of a debate?
    It has been said that neither Boris or Corbyn will take part in all the leaders debate
    They confining themselves to the two tools format ?
    Not sure what has been agreed

    Going forward it needs resolving by a commission and enabling a format for all future elections
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,499
    Dura_Ace said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is there any polling evidence to justify rebranding the Lib-Dems "Jo Swinson's Liberal Demorcrats" ?

    Last time I saw a poll with personal ratings (MORI?) Swinson wasn't exactly miss popular with the electorate?
    The shade of amaranth she brings to the flabby jowls of the pb.com tories indicates she's on to something. See also Greta T.
    Indeed. I hope @MikeSmithson produces daily threads in praise of the fragrant Jo. The explosion of gammon on here will be pure theatre.
  • Lecturn outside no 10. No seal
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Very nice answer from Corbyn on how the average Leave voter and the average Remain voter have more interests in common than in conflict.

    Their mutual interest is obviously keeping him well away from all the grown-up things being a PM entails.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Blue_rog said:

    I really feel that if there is no clear majority after this GE then there will be serious discussions of moving to a form of PR, accompanied by a complete shake up of the party systems.

    Looking back at the complete horlicks of the past three years this may not be a bad thing.

    I don't see the support for PR in any sort of hung parliament we could see next month.

  • ** Betting Post **

    Just a reminder that, in all the GE excitement, we shouldn't overlook the London Mayoral election next May. It seems remarkable to me that you can still get 1.5 (1/2 in old money) on Sadiq Khan. That's from William Hill, but the Betfair odds are similar
  • Alun Cairns resigning, according to Laura K.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited November 2019

    NEC deciding today if jew botherer williamson and coke and rent boys Vaz get to stand again, plus the Salma Yaqoob fun and games

    Yaqoob has said she's not seeking a GE candidacy, according to the Twitter.

    Having watched the Tories meltdown over the last 24 hours, this is the NEC's big chance to hand the media a load of ammunition.
    I believe they decide if she gets the WM mayor gig today
  • Alan Cairns to resign
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Anorak said:

    Like Labour, the Tories are becoming reliant on talentless and thick people because the decent ones have either left or been pushed.
    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1192037394008170496

    Is the coward Boris Johnson about to repeat one of Mrs May’s blunders and chicken out of a debate?
    Presumably he will at least not repeat her blunder of saying that he's not appearing because he's too busy to fight the election he called
  • You've got to admire the Conservatives' dedication to their grid. They've set off at a frenetic pace - after yesterday's gaffe-packed day, we're already onto the second fiasco of the day and it's not even 1pm.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106

    Early contender in the 'most dodgy graph in a leaflet' competition, and it's the Lib Dems. They've been strong in this category before, but the Scottish Tories might run them close this year.

    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1192044683742056449


    The LD's would be wise to tone down their flexible approach to data presentation on their leaflets.

    I would imagine the vast majority of their campaign literature is correct and above board but they are at risk of bringing in to question everything that pops through voters letter boxes if they keep going as they are.

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    edited November 2019


    How is she doing with Remain voters? The LibDems are not targeting a majority.

    Only speaking for myself but I think Britain needs to move forward, and to move forward it needs a leader whose left shoulder is a wheel.

    https://twitter.com/LibDemPress/status/1192003069380300804
    Never a good sign when a political party brands itself as the personal possession of the leader: "Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats."
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Very nice answer from Corbyn on how the average Leave voter and the average Remain voter have more interests in common than in conflict.

    He's hemorrhaging the leave vote, answers like this won't help.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Anorak said:

    Like Labour, the Tories are becoming reliant on talentless and thick people because the decent ones have either left or been pushed.
    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1192037394008170496

    Is the coward Boris Johnson about to repeat one of Mrs May’s blunders and chicken out of a debate?
    That would be incredibly dumb
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    SunnyJim said:

    Early contender in the 'most dodgy graph in a leaflet' competition, and it's the Lib Dems. They've been strong in this category before, but the Scottish Tories might run them close this year.

    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1192044683742056449


    The LD's would be wise to tone down their flexible approach to data presentation on their leaflets.

    I would imagine the vast majority of their campaign literature is correct and above board but they are at risk of bringing in to question everything that pops through voters letter boxes if they keep going as they are.

    Ah - but if you look closely the polling was done by "Yougov," not "YouGov."
  • twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1192050830649810946

    Did we not learn anything from the last GE, Vox Pox mean f##k all. If they did, we would have PM May with a 150 seat majority propelled by loads of flat cap wearing working men's club voted Labour all my life types backing her.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Anorak said:

    Like Labour, the Tories are becoming reliant on talentless and thick people because the decent ones have either left or been pushed.
    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1192037394008170496

    Is the coward Boris Johnson about to repeat one of Mrs May’s blunders and chicken out of a debate?
    It has been said that neither Boris or Corbyn will take part in all the leaders debate
    Corbyn said that ast time and changed his mind, making May look frit.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Nigel's [Stop] Brexit Campaign going well then! :D
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1192050830649810946

    Did we not learn anything from the last GE, Vox Pox mean f##k all. If they did, we would have PM May with a 150 seat majority propelled by loads of flat cap wearing working men's club voted Labour all my life types backing her.
    Party faithful faithful to party shock
  • twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1192050830649810946

    Did we not learn anything from the last GE, Vox Pox mean f##k all. If they did, we would have PM May with a 150 seat majority propelled by loads of flat cap wearing working men's club voted Labour all my life types backing her.
    Lewis Goodall had strong labour connections and his reporting needs to be seen from this standport
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    I note Guido for one is trying to play up BXP divisions, but so far it seems pretty minimal.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Actually it's repetition
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Actually it's repetition
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533



    "All aboard!" Is it a request stop service then? Be fun when some people start flagging it down - and then telling them they have to wait until they've done their shopping at Asda.....

    That actually happened to me - we hired an open-topped bus to tour Broxtowe, and stopped from time to time to have people hand out leaflets. Someone got on and said "Do you go up Wollaton Road?".

    We took her. No charge. On reflection that constituted "treating the electorate", which is illegal. We should have charged her cost price...
  • POLL: The Saj is ahead of John McDonnell on who you want to run economy and set taxes

    But voters don't think the economy is as well run as it was in 2015

    Another cracking poll by @IpsosMORI poll in tonight's @EveningStandard

    https://t.co/TAphcxtuxb
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    So far the Tories, Labour and Lib Dems have had a shocking start to their campaigns. It appears to be a race to the bottom.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited November 2019
    kle4 said:

    Anorak said:

    Like Labour, the Tories are becoming reliant on talentless and thick people because the decent ones have either left or been pushed.
    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1192037394008170496

    Is the coward Boris Johnson about to repeat one of Mrs May’s blunders and chicken out of a debate?
    It has been said that neither Boris or Corbyn will take part in all the leaders debate
    Corbyn said that ast time and changed his mind, making May look frit.
    Difference is that Boris IS doing TV debates (TM didn't do any)

    He's doing a head to head to Corbyn and a head to head with Corbyn and Swinson.

    I assume whatever the BBC has lined up he'll do that as well.

    He may be sitting out the six or seven-way debate ITV are planning and I remember in 2015 Cameron was reported as saying he'd wished he hadn't bothered with that one as having so many people taking part meant there was no time for anyone to get their points across.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163



    "All aboard!" Is it a request stop service then? Be fun when some people start flagging it down - and then telling them they have to wait until they've done their shopping at Asda.....

    That actually happened to me - we hired an open-topped bus to tour Broxtowe, and stopped from time to time to have people hand out leaflets. Someone got on and said "Do you go up Wollaton Road?".

    We took her. No charge. On reflection that constituted "treating the electorate", which is illegal. We should have charged her cost price...
    Best be careful- some bozo with no humour will have a 'former labour mp in corruption admission' headline ready to go.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381

    twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1192050830649810946

    Did we not learn anything from the last GE, Vox Pox mean f##k all. If they did, we would have PM May with a 150 seat majority propelled by loads of flat cap wearing working men's club voted Labour all my life types backing her.
    Over time, Conservative support has been rising among working class voters.
  • Blue_rog said:

    I really feel that if there is no clear majority after this GE then there will be serious discussions of moving to a form of PR, accompanied by a complete shake up of the party systems.

    Looking back at the complete horlicks of the past three years this may not be a bad thing.

    Trouble is that PR would probably make what we have had for the last 3 years the norm going forward.
    Not really, because parties would have to offer voters positive reasons to vote for them, rather than negative reasons not to vote for their opponents, and any realignment on an issue like Brexit would be much easier with STV which doesn't force opponents on a major policy to stick together in one party.

    It's also really important to point out that there are a wide variety of PR systems. There is a big difference between a system such as STV*, that they use in Ireland, with 3-5 MPs per constituency, or list PR on either a national or regional basis, as we use for European elections.

    A lot of the criticisms that are levelled at PR are much reduced, or absent, with STV with reasonably-sized constituencies.

    * Once known as British Proportional Representation.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Anorak said:

    Like Labour, the Tories are becoming reliant on talentless and thick people because the decent ones have either left or been pushed.
    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1192037394008170496

    Can someone please inform Priti Patel that in the Midlands we actually pronounce the "g" in "ing" words. (That was a joke).
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Cairns to cooperate fully with investigation and denies wrongdoing. Trying to slide it under the rug where any criticism could 'prejuduce' the ministerial code investigation. Take the hit today and hear no more until after polling day. Sensible.
  • kle4 said:

    Anorak said:

    Like Labour, the Tories are becoming reliant on talentless and thick people because the decent ones have either left or been pushed.
    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1192037394008170496

    Is the coward Boris Johnson about to repeat one of Mrs May’s blunders and chicken out of a debate?
    It has been said that neither Boris or Corbyn will take part in all the leaders debate
    Corbyn said that ast time and changed his mind, making May look frit.
    Perhaps they are both trying to leave the other out on a limb? I’d like to seen them followed by cameras on the day, trying to leave it as late as possible to start out for the studio so the other doesn’t get an inkling, and then engaged in a madcap dash across England to try and take their podium on time.
  • Chris said:


    Never a good sign when a political party brands itself as the personal possession of the leader: "Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats."

    I vaguely recall Cameron making some unlucky by-election candidate stand as "David Cameron's Conservatives", then ditching the idea for future elections after it didn't go as well as he'd hoped...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    POLL: The Saj is ahead of John McDonnell on who you want to run economy and set taxes

    But voters don't think the economy is as well run as it was in 2015

    Another cracking poll by @IpsosMORI poll in tonight's @EveningStandard

    https://t.co/TAphcxtuxb

    Bit harsh to be critical of Sajid's running of the economy when he hasn't even delivered a Budget.

    Yet.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    kle4 said:



    "All aboard!" Is it a request stop service then? Be fun when some people start flagging it down - and then telling them they have to wait until they've done their shopping at Asda.....

    That actually happened to me - we hired an open-topped bus to tour Broxtowe, and stopped from time to time to have people hand out leaflets. Someone got on and said "Do you go up Wollaton Road?".

    We took her. No charge. On reflection that constituted "treating the electorate", which is illegal. We should have charged her cost price...
    Best be careful- some bozo with no humour will have a 'former labour mp in corruption admission' headline ready to go.
    I'm not sure it even was treating. No food or drink mentioned. It was a ride so probably couldn't be classed as entertainment, assuming the person was not going to Wollaton road to cast their vote. No money involved. So could it really be described as treating?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Cairns to cooperate fully with investigation and denies wrongdoing. Trying to slide it under the rug where any criticism could 'prejuduce' the ministerial code investigation. Take the hit today and hear no more until after polling day. Sensible.

    Agreed, though he probably should have resigned at 9am today!
  • On topic, I wouldn’t vote Liberal Democrat in a month of Sundays. At the end of the day, I don’t share their principles or values - the latest incarnation of which is pure identity politics. Nor would I vote for The Brexit Party. And, of course, I wouldn’t vote Labour in a million years. If it came to abandoning the Conservatives I’d either abstain or look to back an independent Conservative or even an independent.

    I haven’t made a final decision how I’m going to vote yet but luckily my local MP is Damien Hinds, who’s very much a voice of sanity.

    I’ve been in dialogue with him expressing my concern that the Conservatives don’t lose their mantle as the party of good responsible government, but I don’t know how influential he is in the circles that matter. Still, as long as people like he and Jeremy Hunt on the backbenches then there is hope.

    My biggest concern is I don’t really know what Boris will do with a decent majority (I don’t trust him nor take him at his word) and I have serious reservations about the competence of some of his top team. So I’m worried I might end up regretting my vote as he uses it as a mandate to justify whatever he wants, and it might actually be a fairly chaotic administration.

    I won’t make a final decision until the manifesto is published.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Chris said:


    Never a good sign when a political party brands itself as the personal possession of the leader: "Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats."

    I vaguely recall Cameron making some unlucky by-election candidate stand as "David Cameron's Conservatives", then ditching the idea for future elections after it didn't go as well as he'd hoped...
    Ealing Southall
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    POLL: The Saj is ahead of John McDonnell on who you want to run economy and set taxes

    But voters don't think the economy is as well run as it was in 2015

    Another cracking poll by @IpsosMORI poll in tonight's @EveningStandard

    https://t.co/TAphcxtuxb

    No voting intention from Mori?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237

    A referendum before Brexit will just be on the WA and political declaration, not the hard detail of the future relationship, so this objection doesn't apply. We already know exactly what the options are for withdrawal.

    Exactly. With the PD redrafted for close alignment. Slam dunk. The one and only "ludicrous" aspect (arguably) is that the subsequent Ref2 would lack a Hard Leave option and thus be something of a stitch-up for Remain. Hence why I preferred Labour's old policy of Soft Brexit, no Ref2. But I recognize they had to give that up and offer the Ref to prevent a catastrophic loss of Remainer support.
  • POLL: The Saj is ahead of John McDonnell on who you want to run economy and set taxes

    But voters don't think the economy is as well run as it was in 2015

    Another cracking poll by @IpsosMORI poll in tonight's @EveningStandard

    https://t.co/TAphcxtuxb

    The country says bring back George Osborne.
  • Has Alun Cairns' resignation been timed deliberately to coincide with the start of the Campaign?

    A good day to bury bad news?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    Chris said:


    How is she doing with Remain voters? The LibDems are not targeting a majority.

    Only speaking for myself but I think Britain needs to move forward, and to move forward it needs a leader whose left shoulder is a wheel.

    https://twitter.com/LibDemPress/status/1192003069380300804
    Never a good sign when a political party brands itself as the personal possession of the leader: "Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats."
    Although it limits the brand damage when you later push them under, er, a bus....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2019

    On topic, I wouldn’t vote Liberal Democrat in a month of Sundays. At the end of the day, I don’t share their principles or values - the latest incarnation of which is pure identity politics. Nor would I vote for The Brexit Party. And, of course, I wouldn’t vote Labour in a million years. If it came to abandoning the Conservatives I’d either abstain or look to back an independent Conservative or even an independent.

    I haven’t made a final decision how I’m going to vote yet but luckily my local MP is Damien Hinds, who’s very much a voice of sanity.

    I’ve been in dialogue with him expressing my concern that the Conservatives don’t lose their mantle as the party of good responsible government, but I don’t know how influential he is in the circles that matter. Still, as long as people like he and Jeremy Hunt on the backbenches then there is hope.

    My biggest concern is I don’t really know what Boris will do with a decent majority (I don’t trust him nor take him at his word) and I have serious reservations about the competence of some of his top team. So I’m worried I might end up regretting my vote as he uses it as a mandate to justify whatever he wants, and it might actually be a fairly chaotic administration.

    I won’t make a final decision until the manifesto is published.

    A potential problem for the LDs is that they have a lot of mostly older voters who are what you might call "traditional Liberals" who've been supporting the party and its predecessors since the 1970s, and I'm not sure they're all that keen on things like identity politics. A lot of these types of voters live in the South West.
  • Chris said:


    Never a good sign when a political party brands itself as the personal possession of the leader: "Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats."

    I vaguely recall Cameron making some unlucky by-election candidate stand as "David Cameron's Conservatives", then ditching the idea for future elections after it didn't go as well as he'd hoped...
    I'm old enough to remember 'SNP - Alex Salmond for First Minister', although to be fair, he did actually become FM.
  • POLL: The Saj is ahead of John McDonnell on who you want to run economy and set taxes

    But voters don't think the economy is as well run as it was in 2015

    Another cracking poll by @IpsosMORI poll in tonight's @EveningStandard

    https://t.co/TAphcxtuxb

    The country says bring back George Osborne.
    Along with National Service and The Rope presumably.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464
    Brom said:

    So far the Tories, Labour and Lib Dems have had a shocking start to their campaigns. It appears to be a race to the bottom.

    I'm of the opinion that BXP have also had a pretty lacklustre start......this GE looks a bit more open than a few days ago.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    Lecturn outside no 10. No seal

    Is there an otter?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Has Alun Cairns' resignation been timed deliberately to coincide with the start of the Campaign?

    A good day to bury bad news?

    It does seem strange to resign just as the campaign starts, obviously better now than later though. Maybe he was pissed at the lack of support from ConHQ.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Have been bedridden with flu last few days so not had much chance to post, but interesting to see even the yanks are starting to notice Johnson's similarities to Trump:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ek1WNibZxJg&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR2QAcZFGZOJA-OVv1PzhoxDkr7hZXOtgjhYw38aq5wrscwut79gsMUT3p4
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    POLL: The Saj is ahead of John McDonnell on who you want to run economy and set taxes

    But voters don't think the economy is as well run as it was in 2015

    Another cracking poll by @IpsosMORI poll in tonight's @EveningStandard

    https://t.co/TAphcxtuxb

    The country says bring back George Osborne.
    That's enough about Germany
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    I have a feeling Con will be slightly UP in this weekends polls and the MSM will be left scratching their heads on Saturday night... ;)
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    About how lefties getting overly-excited about a slack 1st week of the campaign means sod all when Boris wins the election at the end of the 6th? :smile:
  • In themselves perhaps not, but a vote for the LibDems is a vote for a hung parliament, and the one we've just had has not exactly been a triumph of principled, sensible decision-making, on Brexit or on anything else.

    I think if you imagine it had instead been Con Maj 20 it would have been worse? The ERG would still have been the ERG, the opposition would still have opposed, and there wouldn't have been the votes to stop some maniac crashing out with No Deal.
    Yes, I think that is possible, and that is part of the calculation one has to make. One thing which worries me is that I'm not totally confident that the LibDems and SNP would support a Boris trade deal, if he comes back with one after a formal exit from the EU on Jan 31st. Would they play silly games again in such a scenario? If we had sensible journalists, they'd be pressing Ms Swinson on points like this.
    A hung parliament offers no solutions.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited November 2019
    Think it is worth remembering that at this stage of the last GE campaign Diane Abbott had self-destructed on live radio. Then they got their shit together and the Tories decided to release their manifesto.

    If the Tories haven't already called for the voldemort from down under, they would be very wise to do so rather quickly.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Spirits must be high in the Brexit Party after such a poor start to the campaign from the three main parties.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Afternoon all.

    Tory overall majority slowly drifting out on Betfair Exchange (now 2.36/2.38) - must be a decent bet despite the Tories dreadful start to the campaign.
  • Cairns still planning to stand
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,719

    In themselves perhaps not, but a vote for the LibDems is a vote for a hung parliament, and the one we've just had has not exactly been a triumph of principled, sensible decision-making, on Brexit or on anything else.

    I think if you imagine it had instead been Con Maj 20 it would have been worse? The ERG would still have been the ERG, the opposition would still have opposed, and there wouldn't have been the votes to stop some maniac crashing out with No Deal.
    Yes, I think that is possible, and that is part of the calculation one has to make. One thing which worries me is that I'm not totally confident that the LibDems and SNP would support a Boris trade deal, if he comes back with one after a formal exit from the EU on Jan 31st. Would they play silly games again in such a scenario? If we had sensible journalists, they'd be pressing Ms Swinson on points like this.
    A hung parliament offers no solutions.
    A hung parliament almost certainly means a second referendum.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    SunnyJim said:

    It is ludicrous though.

    Absurdity through necessity I grant you but absurd none the less.

    It isn't. Objectively it isn't - apart from the point I've made that the Ref2 formulation it produces could be seen as steering heavily to a Remain win.

    However, I have done enough on this one. You can lead a horse to water ...
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited November 2019
    Halcyon days. *dons rose-tinted shades*

    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1192056151409598469
  • murali_s said:

    Afternoon all.

    Tory overall majority slowly drifting out on Betfair Exchange (now 2.36/2.38) - must be a decent bet despite the Tories dreadful start to the campaign.

    That is the problem.

    They have not started yet though Boris is about to speak from no 10
  • On topic, I wouldn’t vote Liberal Democrat in a month of Sundays. At the end of the day, I don’t share their principles or values - the latest incarnation of which is pure identity politics. Nor would I vote for The Brexit Party. And, of course, I wouldn’t vote Labour in a million years. If it came to abandoning the Conservatives I’d either abstain or look to back an independent Conservative or even an independent.

    I haven’t made a final decision how I’m going to vote yet but luckily my local MP is Damien Hinds, who’s very much a voice of sanity.

    I’ve been in dialogue with him expressing my concern that the Conservatives don’t lose their mantle as the party of good responsible government, but I don’t know how influential he is in the circles that matter. Still, as long as people like he and Jeremy Hunt on the backbenches then there is hope.

    My biggest concern is I don’t really know what Boris will do with a decent majority (I don’t trust him nor take him at his word) and I have serious reservations about the competence of some of his top team. So I’m worried I might end up regretting my vote as he uses it as a mandate to justify whatever he wants, and it might actually be a fairly chaotic administration.

    I won’t make a final decision until the manifesto is published.

    I applaud the decision, CR.

    I have no such dilemmas. My MP is Laurence Robertson who is to be found at the more demented end of the ERG Group. Since we are talking North West Gloucestershire, he doesn't lack for support.

    My partner has a similar problem to you though. Her visceral dislike of Corbyn has to be balanced against admiration for the local Labour MP, Tulip Siddiq. The mood music at the moment suggests a switch to LD, but I'll keep you informed.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Noo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    A Lib Dem propped up Labour minority Gov't likely involves a change of leader in the Labour party, a renegotiation with the EU, another referendum in Scotland and another EU referendum.

    Which incoming Labour leader do you think will agree to an independence referendum in Scotland, and why do you think the Lib Dems would vote for it?
    I'm running into internal contradictions very quickly indeed in my Lab minority scenario. Looks like a recipe for chaos !
    GE2017 says hi.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Noo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    A Lib Dem propped up Labour minority Gov't likely involves a change of leader in the Labour party, a renegotiation with the EU, another referendum in Scotland and another EU referendum.

    Which incoming Labour leader do you think will agree to an independence referendum in Scotland, and why do you think the Lib Dems would vote for it?
    I'm running into internal contradictions very quickly indeed in my Lab minority scenario. Looks like a recipe for chaos !
    GE2017 says hi.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    In themselves perhaps not, but a vote for the LibDems is a vote for a hung parliament, and the one we've just had has not exactly been a triumph of principled, sensible decision-making, on Brexit or on anything else.

    I think if you imagine it had instead been Con Maj 20 it would have been worse? The ERG would still have been the ERG, the opposition would still have opposed, and there wouldn't have been the votes to stop some maniac crashing out with No Deal.
    Yes, I think that is possible, and that is part of the calculation one has to make. One thing which worries me is that I'm not totally confident that the LibDems and SNP would support a Boris trade deal, if he comes back with one after a formal exit from the EU on Jan 31st. Would they play silly games again in such a scenario? If we had sensible journalists, they'd be pressing Ms Swinson on points like this.
    A hung parliament offers no solutions.
    A hung parliament almost certainly means a second referendum.
    2nd ref only happens if Lab/SNP or Lab/LD get a majority, Ungovernable otherwise and we go to the polls again.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    There are two elections going on, it seems.

    One in the eyes of the commentariat, where the tories are having a nightmare.

    And one in the eyes of the voters, where the tories are twenty points ahead of labour on trust to run the economy.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited November 2019
  • ... I’ve been in dialogue with him expressing my concern that the Conservatives don’t lose their mantle as the party of good responsible government...

    Too late. That ship sailed long ago...

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    kinabalu said:

    SunnyJim said:

    It is ludicrous though.

    Absurdity through necessity I grant you but absurd none the less.

    It isn't. Objectively it isn't - apart from the point I've made that the Ref2 formulation it produces could be seen as steering heavily to a Remain win.

    However, I have done enough on this one. You can lead a horse to water ...
    And a Champagne Socialist to a skinny decaf. Off to Cafe Nero again as you ponder the absurdity of Labour's Brexit policy?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    There are two elections going on, it seems.

    One in the eyes of the commentariat, where the tories are having a nightmare.

    And one in the eyes of the voters, where the tories are twenty points ahead of labour on trust to run the economy.

    Indeed. ;)
  • Mr. Glenn, we just had a hung Parliament, though...

    Another could lead to another referendum. But I'm not sure it's likely. Depends how it's set up.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    edited November 2019
    Deleted - unspecific link
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    I wonder how much of a game changer it would be if one of the parties put the legalisation of cannabis into their manifesto.

    It seems like natural territory for the Lib Dems and actually proves they have policies beyond Brexit.

    For the Tories it could help win over younger voters and prove they aren't authoritarians like the May era.

    And of course Labour could claim the tax revenues raised might actually help pay for the massive increase in spending they propose.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Anorak said:

    Halcyon days. *dons rose-tinted shades*

    He seems to have forgotten the bit where they left office with the worst crash since the depression.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Anorak said:
    Jesus, her faux outrage is cringe.
  • There’s some top quality stream of consciousness filler/waffle going on on BBC News right now.
This discussion has been closed.