I really feel that if there is no clear majority after this GE then there will be serious discussions of moving to a form of PR, accompanied by a complete shake up of the party systems.
Looking back at the complete horlicks of the past three years this may not be a bad thing.
Trouble is that PR would probably make what we have had for the last 3 years the norm going forward.
I really feel that if there is no clear majority after this GE then there will be serious discussions of moving to a form of PR, accompanied by a complete shake up of the party systems.
Looking back at the complete horlicks of the past three years this may not be a bad thing.
About time.
We economic and social liberals have been floating around 3 (or more) parties for far too long.
Greens just announced £100 billion a year for the next 10 years for the climate change policies paid for by borrowing £91 billion per annum an £9 billion from corporation tax
Lets borrow a trillion pounds over the next decade . . . for our chidren's sake.
There isn't a Facepalm big enough. 🤦♂️
Terrible! That would take borrowing back to levels not seen since... [checks notes] three years into Cameron's government.
Indeed and three years into Cameron's government we were desperately trying to bring down borrowing because it was out of control, not deliberately trying to increase it!
I wouldn't say out of control. Higher than the fiscal hawks would have it be, too high for Tory tastes. For context, the Green plan as I understand it would take our current levels of borrowing from about the same as Greece's, to about the same as the USA's. The original post was really just a piece of rhetoric, aggregating ten years to make the figure sound bigger. The yearly figure of 91bn is a little under 3.5% of UK GDP. Tastes will vary as to whether that's desirable or not, but it's nowhere near unreasonable.
Dominic Grieve hasn't got a chance in hell of retaining Beaconsfield. He's standing for the pay off. Oh and a few more weeks in the spotlight.
There is something not right that somebody can stand as an independent and, by virtue of getting not even one vote, can trouser tens of thousands of pounds. Perhaps it should be linked to at least saving their deposit. Give it an element of jeapordy...
MPs should just be entitled to a pay off when they cease to be an MP after a GE, whether or not they chose to contest their seat. Are Jared O'Mara and Dominic Grieve more worthy of pay offs than others who have done no more than choose to retire? While IPSA remains accountable to no-one for their decisions, you have to wonder how it could be fixed.
I really feel that if there is no clear majority after this GE then there will be serious discussions of moving to a form of PR, accompanied by a complete shake up of the party systems.
Looking back at the complete horlicks of the past three years this may not be a bad thing.
Trouble is that PR would probably make what we have had for the last 3 years the norm going forward.
On the upside(!) it would give Nigel a chance. 8th time lucky!
I really feel that if there is no clear majority after this GE then there will be serious discussions of moving to a form of PR, accompanied by a complete shake up of the party systems.
Looking back at the complete horlicks of the past three years this may not be a bad thing.
I don't see the support for PR in any sort of hung parliament we could see next month.
Just a reminder that, in all the GE excitement, we shouldn't overlook the London Mayoral election next May. It seems remarkable to me that you can still get 1.5 (1/2 in old money) on Sadiq Khan. That's from William Hill, but the Betfair odds are similar
You've got to admire the Conservatives' dedication to their grid. They've set off at a frenetic pace - after yesterday's gaffe-packed day, we're already onto the second fiasco of the day and it's not even 1pm.
Early contender in the 'most dodgy graph in a leaflet' competition, and it's the Lib Dems. They've been strong in this category before, but the Scottish Tories might run them close this year.
The LD's would be wise to tone down their flexible approach to data presentation on their leaflets.
I would imagine the vast majority of their campaign literature is correct and above board but they are at risk of bringing in to question everything that pops through voters letter boxes if they keep going as they are.
Early contender in the 'most dodgy graph in a leaflet' competition, and it's the Lib Dems. They've been strong in this category before, but the Scottish Tories might run them close this year.
The LD's would be wise to tone down their flexible approach to data presentation on their leaflets.
I would imagine the vast majority of their campaign literature is correct and above board but they are at risk of bringing in to question everything that pops through voters letter boxes if they keep going as they are.
Ah - but if you look closely the polling was done by "Yougov," not "YouGov."
Did we not learn anything from the last GE, Vox Pox mean f##k all. If they did, we would have PM May with a 150 seat majority propelled by loads of flat cap wearing working men's club voted Labour all my life types backing her.
Did we not learn anything from the last GE, Vox Pox mean f##k all. If they did, we would have PM May with a 150 seat majority propelled by loads of flat cap wearing working men's club voted Labour all my life types backing her.
Did we not learn anything from the last GE, Vox Pox mean f##k all. If they did, we would have PM May with a 150 seat majority propelled by loads of flat cap wearing working men's club voted Labour all my life types backing her.
Lewis Goodall had strong labour connections and his reporting needs to be seen from this standport
"All aboard!" Is it a request stop service then? Be fun when some people start flagging it down - and then telling them they have to wait until they've done their shopping at Asda.....
That actually happened to me - we hired an open-topped bus to tour Broxtowe, and stopped from time to time to have people hand out leaflets. Someone got on and said "Do you go up Wollaton Road?".
We took her. No charge. On reflection that constituted "treating the electorate", which is illegal. We should have charged her cost price...
Is the coward Boris Johnson about to repeat one of Mrs May’s blunders and chicken out of a debate?
It has been said that neither Boris or Corbyn will take part in all the leaders debate
Corbyn said that ast time and changed his mind, making May look frit.
Difference is that Boris IS doing TV debates (TM didn't do any)
He's doing a head to head to Corbyn and a head to head with Corbyn and Swinson.
I assume whatever the BBC has lined up he'll do that as well.
He may be sitting out the six or seven-way debate ITV are planning and I remember in 2015 Cameron was reported as saying he'd wished he hadn't bothered with that one as having so many people taking part meant there was no time for anyone to get their points across.
"All aboard!" Is it a request stop service then? Be fun when some people start flagging it down - and then telling them they have to wait until they've done their shopping at Asda.....
That actually happened to me - we hired an open-topped bus to tour Broxtowe, and stopped from time to time to have people hand out leaflets. Someone got on and said "Do you go up Wollaton Road?".
We took her. No charge. On reflection that constituted "treating the electorate", which is illegal. We should have charged her cost price...
Best be careful- some bozo with no humour will have a 'former labour mp in corruption admission' headline ready to go.
Did we not learn anything from the last GE, Vox Pox mean f##k all. If they did, we would have PM May with a 150 seat majority propelled by loads of flat cap wearing working men's club voted Labour all my life types backing her.
Over time, Conservative support has been rising among working class voters.
I really feel that if there is no clear majority after this GE then there will be serious discussions of moving to a form of PR, accompanied by a complete shake up of the party systems.
Looking back at the complete horlicks of the past three years this may not be a bad thing.
Trouble is that PR would probably make what we have had for the last 3 years the norm going forward.
Not really, because parties would have to offer voters positive reasons to vote for them, rather than negative reasons not to vote for their opponents, and any realignment on an issue like Brexit would be much easier with STV which doesn't force opponents on a major policy to stick together in one party.
It's also really important to point out that there are a wide variety of PR systems. There is a big difference between a system such as STV*, that they use in Ireland, with 3-5 MPs per constituency, or list PR on either a national or regional basis, as we use for European elections.
A lot of the criticisms that are levelled at PR are much reduced, or absent, with STV with reasonably-sized constituencies.
* Once known as British Proportional Representation.
Cairns to cooperate fully with investigation and denies wrongdoing. Trying to slide it under the rug where any criticism could 'prejuduce' the ministerial code investigation. Take the hit today and hear no more until after polling day. Sensible.
Is the coward Boris Johnson about to repeat one of Mrs May’s blunders and chicken out of a debate?
It has been said that neither Boris or Corbyn will take part in all the leaders debate
Corbyn said that ast time and changed his mind, making May look frit.
Perhaps they are both trying to leave the other out on a limb? I’d like to seen them followed by cameras on the day, trying to leave it as late as possible to start out for the studio so the other doesn’t get an inkling, and then engaged in a madcap dash across England to try and take their podium on time.
Never a good sign when a political party brands itself as the personal possession of the leader: "Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats."
I vaguely recall Cameron making some unlucky by-election candidate stand as "David Cameron's Conservatives", then ditching the idea for future elections after it didn't go as well as he'd hoped...
"All aboard!" Is it a request stop service then? Be fun when some people start flagging it down - and then telling them they have to wait until they've done their shopping at Asda.....
That actually happened to me - we hired an open-topped bus to tour Broxtowe, and stopped from time to time to have people hand out leaflets. Someone got on and said "Do you go up Wollaton Road?".
We took her. No charge. On reflection that constituted "treating the electorate", which is illegal. We should have charged her cost price...
Best be careful- some bozo with no humour will have a 'former labour mp in corruption admission' headline ready to go.
I'm not sure it even was treating. No food or drink mentioned. It was a ride so probably couldn't be classed as entertainment, assuming the person was not going to Wollaton road to cast their vote. No money involved. So could it really be described as treating?
Cairns to cooperate fully with investigation and denies wrongdoing. Trying to slide it under the rug where any criticism could 'prejuduce' the ministerial code investigation. Take the hit today and hear no more until after polling day. Sensible.
Agreed, though he probably should have resigned at 9am today!
On topic, I wouldn’t vote Liberal Democrat in a month of Sundays. At the end of the day, I don’t share their principles or values - the latest incarnation of which is pure identity politics. Nor would I vote for The Brexit Party. And, of course, I wouldn’t vote Labour in a million years. If it came to abandoning the Conservatives I’d either abstain or look to back an independent Conservative or even an independent.
I haven’t made a final decision how I’m going to vote yet but luckily my local MP is Damien Hinds, who’s very much a voice of sanity.
I’ve been in dialogue with him expressing my concern that the Conservatives don’t lose their mantle as the party of good responsible government, but I don’t know how influential he is in the circles that matter. Still, as long as people like he and Jeremy Hunt on the backbenches then there is hope.
My biggest concern is I don’t really know what Boris will do with a decent majority (I don’t trust him nor take him at his word) and I have serious reservations about the competence of some of his top team. So I’m worried I might end up regretting my vote as he uses it as a mandate to justify whatever he wants, and it might actually be a fairly chaotic administration.
I won’t make a final decision until the manifesto is published.
Never a good sign when a political party brands itself as the personal possession of the leader: "Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats."
I vaguely recall Cameron making some unlucky by-election candidate stand as "David Cameron's Conservatives", then ditching the idea for future elections after it didn't go as well as he'd hoped...
A referendum before Brexit will just be on the WA and political declaration, not the hard detail of the future relationship, so this objection doesn't apply. We already know exactly what the options are for withdrawal.
Exactly. With the PD redrafted for close alignment. Slam dunk. The one and only "ludicrous" aspect (arguably) is that the subsequent Ref2 would lack a Hard Leave option and thus be something of a stitch-up for Remain. Hence why I preferred Labour's old policy of Soft Brexit, no Ref2. But I recognize they had to give that up and offer the Ref to prevent a catastrophic loss of Remainer support.
On topic, I wouldn’t vote Liberal Democrat in a month of Sundays. At the end of the day, I don’t share their principles or values - the latest incarnation of which is pure identity politics. Nor would I vote for The Brexit Party. And, of course, I wouldn’t vote Labour in a million years. If it came to abandoning the Conservatives I’d either abstain or look to back an independent Conservative or even an independent.
I haven’t made a final decision how I’m going to vote yet but luckily my local MP is Damien Hinds, who’s very much a voice of sanity.
I’ve been in dialogue with him expressing my concern that the Conservatives don’t lose their mantle as the party of good responsible government, but I don’t know how influential he is in the circles that matter. Still, as long as people like he and Jeremy Hunt on the backbenches then there is hope.
My biggest concern is I don’t really know what Boris will do with a decent majority (I don’t trust him nor take him at his word) and I have serious reservations about the competence of some of his top team. So I’m worried I might end up regretting my vote as he uses it as a mandate to justify whatever he wants, and it might actually be a fairly chaotic administration.
I won’t make a final decision until the manifesto is published.
A potential problem for the LDs is that they have a lot of mostly older voters who are what you might call "traditional Liberals" who've been supporting the party and its predecessors since the 1970s, and I'm not sure they're all that keen on things like identity politics. A lot of these types of voters live in the South West.
Never a good sign when a political party brands itself as the personal possession of the leader: "Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats."
I vaguely recall Cameron making some unlucky by-election candidate stand as "David Cameron's Conservatives", then ditching the idea for future elections after it didn't go as well as he'd hoped...
I'm old enough to remember 'SNP - Alex Salmond for First Minister', although to be fair, he did actually become FM.
Has Alun Cairns' resignation been timed deliberately to coincide with the start of the Campaign?
A good day to bury bad news?
It does seem strange to resign just as the campaign starts, obviously better now than later though. Maybe he was pissed at the lack of support from ConHQ.
Have been bedridden with flu last few days so not had much chance to post, but interesting to see even the yanks are starting to notice Johnson's similarities to Trump:
In themselves perhaps not, but a vote for the LibDems is a vote for a hung parliament, and the one we've just had has not exactly been a triumph of principled, sensible decision-making, on Brexit or on anything else.
I think if you imagine it had instead been Con Maj 20 it would have been worse? The ERG would still have been the ERG, the opposition would still have opposed, and there wouldn't have been the votes to stop some maniac crashing out with No Deal.
Yes, I think that is possible, and that is part of the calculation one has to make. One thing which worries me is that I'm not totally confident that the LibDems and SNP would support a Boris trade deal, if he comes back with one after a formal exit from the EU on Jan 31st. Would they play silly games again in such a scenario? If we had sensible journalists, they'd be pressing Ms Swinson on points like this.
Think it is worth remembering that at this stage of the last GE campaign Diane Abbott had self-destructed on live radio. Then they got their shit together and the Tories decided to release their manifesto.
If the Tories haven't already called for the voldemort from down under, they would be very wise to do so rather quickly.
Tory overall majority slowly drifting out on Betfair Exchange (now 2.36/2.38) - must be a decent bet despite the Tories dreadful start to the campaign.
In themselves perhaps not, but a vote for the LibDems is a vote for a hung parliament, and the one we've just had has not exactly been a triumph of principled, sensible decision-making, on Brexit or on anything else.
I think if you imagine it had instead been Con Maj 20 it would have been worse? The ERG would still have been the ERG, the opposition would still have opposed, and there wouldn't have been the votes to stop some maniac crashing out with No Deal.
Yes, I think that is possible, and that is part of the calculation one has to make. One thing which worries me is that I'm not totally confident that the LibDems and SNP would support a Boris trade deal, if he comes back with one after a formal exit from the EU on Jan 31st. Would they play silly games again in such a scenario? If we had sensible journalists, they'd be pressing Ms Swinson on points like this.
A hung parliament offers no solutions.
A hung parliament almost certainly means a second referendum.
Absurdity through necessity I grant you but absurd none the less.
It isn't. Objectively it isn't - apart from the point I've made that the Ref2 formulation it produces could be seen as steering heavily to a Remain win.
However, I have done enough on this one. You can lead a horse to water ...
Tory overall majority slowly drifting out on Betfair Exchange (now 2.36/2.38) - must be a decent bet despite the Tories dreadful start to the campaign.
That is the problem.
They have not started yet though Boris is about to speak from no 10
On topic, I wouldn’t vote Liberal Democrat in a month of Sundays. At the end of the day, I don’t share their principles or values - the latest incarnation of which is pure identity politics. Nor would I vote for The Brexit Party. And, of course, I wouldn’t vote Labour in a million years. If it came to abandoning the Conservatives I’d either abstain or look to back an independent Conservative or even an independent.
I haven’t made a final decision how I’m going to vote yet but luckily my local MP is Damien Hinds, who’s very much a voice of sanity.
I’ve been in dialogue with him expressing my concern that the Conservatives don’t lose their mantle as the party of good responsible government, but I don’t know how influential he is in the circles that matter. Still, as long as people like he and Jeremy Hunt on the backbenches then there is hope.
My biggest concern is I don’t really know what Boris will do with a decent majority (I don’t trust him nor take him at his word) and I have serious reservations about the competence of some of his top team. So I’m worried I might end up regretting my vote as he uses it as a mandate to justify whatever he wants, and it might actually be a fairly chaotic administration.
I won’t make a final decision until the manifesto is published.
I applaud the decision, CR.
I have no such dilemmas. My MP is Laurence Robertson who is to be found at the more demented end of the ERG Group. Since we are talking North West Gloucestershire, he doesn't lack for support.
My partner has a similar problem to you though. Her visceral dislike of Corbyn has to be balanced against admiration for the local Labour MP, Tulip Siddiq. The mood music at the moment suggests a switch to LD, but I'll keep you informed.
A Lib Dem propped up Labour minority Gov't likely involves a change of leader in the Labour party, a renegotiation with the EU, another referendum in Scotland and another EU referendum.
Which incoming Labour leader do you think will agree to an independence referendum in Scotland, and why do you think the Lib Dems would vote for it?
I'm running into internal contradictions very quickly indeed in my Lab minority scenario. Looks like a recipe for chaos !
A Lib Dem propped up Labour minority Gov't likely involves a change of leader in the Labour party, a renegotiation with the EU, another referendum in Scotland and another EU referendum.
Which incoming Labour leader do you think will agree to an independence referendum in Scotland, and why do you think the Lib Dems would vote for it?
I'm running into internal contradictions very quickly indeed in my Lab minority scenario. Looks like a recipe for chaos !
In themselves perhaps not, but a vote for the LibDems is a vote for a hung parliament, and the one we've just had has not exactly been a triumph of principled, sensible decision-making, on Brexit or on anything else.
I think if you imagine it had instead been Con Maj 20 it would have been worse? The ERG would still have been the ERG, the opposition would still have opposed, and there wouldn't have been the votes to stop some maniac crashing out with No Deal.
Yes, I think that is possible, and that is part of the calculation one has to make. One thing which worries me is that I'm not totally confident that the LibDems and SNP would support a Boris trade deal, if he comes back with one after a formal exit from the EU on Jan 31st. Would they play silly games again in such a scenario? If we had sensible journalists, they'd be pressing Ms Swinson on points like this.
A hung parliament offers no solutions.
A hung parliament almost certainly means a second referendum.
2nd ref only happens if Lab/SNP or Lab/LD get a majority, Ungovernable otherwise and we go to the polls again.
Absurdity through necessity I grant you but absurd none the less.
It isn't. Objectively it isn't - apart from the point I've made that the Ref2 formulation it produces could be seen as steering heavily to a Remain win.
However, I have done enough on this one. You can lead a horse to water ...
And a Champagne Socialist to a skinny decaf. Off to Cafe Nero again as you ponder the absurdity of Labour's Brexit policy?
Comments
https://order-order.com/2019/11/06/swinsons-leaflet-attributes-quote-guardian/
We economic and social liberals have been floating around 3 (or more) parties for far too long.
For context, the Green plan as I understand it would take our current levels of borrowing from about the same as Greece's, to about the same as the USA's.
The original post was really just a piece of rhetoric, aggregating ten years to make the figure sound bigger. The yearly figure of 91bn is a little under 3.5% of UK GDP. Tastes will vary as to whether that's desirable or not, but it's nowhere near unreasonable.
Having watched the Tories meltdown over the last 24 hours, this is the NEC's big chance to hand the media a load of ammunition.
Absurdity through necessity I grant you but absurd none the less.
Going forward it needs resolving by a commission and enabling a format for all future elections
Just a reminder that, in all the GE excitement, we shouldn't overlook the London Mayoral election next May. It seems remarkable to me that you can still get 1.5 (1/2 in old money) on Sadiq Khan. That's from William Hill, but the Betfair odds are similar
The LD's would be wise to tone down their flexible approach to data presentation on their leaflets.
I would imagine the vast majority of their campaign literature is correct and above board but they are at risk of bringing in to question everything that pops through voters letter boxes if they keep going as they are.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1192049890307780608?s=20
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1192050288443764737?s=20
We took her. No charge. On reflection that constituted "treating the electorate", which is illegal. We should have charged her cost price...
But voters don't think the economy is as well run as it was in 2015
Another cracking poll by @IpsosMORI poll in tonight's @EveningStandard
https://t.co/TAphcxtuxb
He's doing a head to head to Corbyn and a head to head with Corbyn and Swinson.
I assume whatever the BBC has lined up he'll do that as well.
He may be sitting out the six or seven-way debate ITV are planning and I remember in 2015 Cameron was reported as saying he'd wished he hadn't bothered with that one as having so many people taking part meant there was no time for anyone to get their points across.
It's also really important to point out that there are a wide variety of PR systems. There is a big difference between a system such as STV*, that they use in Ireland, with 3-5 MPs per constituency, or list PR on either a national or regional basis, as we use for European elections.
A lot of the criticisms that are levelled at PR are much reduced, or absent, with STV with reasonably-sized constituencies.
* Once known as British Proportional Representation.
Yet.
I haven’t made a final decision how I’m going to vote yet but luckily my local MP is Damien Hinds, who’s very much a voice of sanity.
I’ve been in dialogue with him expressing my concern that the Conservatives don’t lose their mantle as the party of good responsible government, but I don’t know how influential he is in the circles that matter. Still, as long as people like he and Jeremy Hunt on the backbenches then there is hope.
My biggest concern is I don’t really know what Boris will do with a decent majority (I don’t trust him nor take him at his word) and I have serious reservations about the competence of some of his top team. So I’m worried I might end up regretting my vote as he uses it as a mandate to justify whatever he wants, and it might actually be a fairly chaotic administration.
I won’t make a final decision until the manifesto is published.
A good day to bury bad news?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ek1WNibZxJg&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR2QAcZFGZOJA-OVv1PzhoxDkr7hZXOtgjhYw38aq5wrscwut79gsMUT3p4
If the Tories haven't already called for the voldemort from down under, they would be very wise to do so rather quickly.
Tory overall majority slowly drifting out on Betfair Exchange (now 2.36/2.38) - must be a decent bet despite the Tories dreadful start to the campaign.
However, I have done enough on this one. You can lead a horse to water ...
https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1192056151409598469
They have not started yet though Boris is about to speak from no 10
I have no such dilemmas. My MP is Laurence Robertson who is to be found at the more demented end of the ERG Group. Since we are talking North West Gloucestershire, he doesn't lack for support.
My partner has a similar problem to you though. Her visceral dislike of Corbyn has to be balanced against admiration for the local Labour MP, Tulip Siddiq. The mood music at the moment suggests a switch to LD, but I'll keep you informed.
One in the eyes of the commentariat, where the tories are having a nightmare.
And one in the eyes of the voters, where the tories are twenty points ahead of labour on trust to run the economy.
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1192056081767424001
Another could lead to another referendum. But I'm not sure it's likely. Depends how it's set up.
It seems like natural territory for the Lib Dems and actually proves they have policies beyond Brexit.
For the Tories it could help win over younger voters and prove they aren't authoritarians like the May era.
And of course Labour could claim the tax revenues raised might actually help pay for the massive increase in spending they propose.