1. If someone has an overall majority the Queen says congrats, you're the government. 2. If nobody does, Johnson is entitled to try to struggle on until he runs into a VONC. 3. If he quits or a VONC is passed, the Queen rakes soundings on whether someone else might be able to govern without a VONC (I believe they would need a vote of confidence, but not necessarily with an overall majority voting for it). That includes a minority government surviving through the lack of a VONC - as we've had in the recent weeks. 4. If so, they get invited to have a try. They too can be brought down by a VONC. 5. If not, we get a new election. What joy.
In this situation, the LibDems would have clear choices in the event that they had enough seats to enable either Tory or Labour+SNP+Plaid to outvote the other:
1. Refuse to support a VONC in Johnson and enable him to continue in office. 2. Vote to remove Johnson, but don't support a VONC in Corbyn, enabling him to be PM. 3. Vote against both and force another election.
There is no realistic fourth option - demanding that other parties change their leaders to someone Swinson likes is not serious.. Swinson is avoiding having to choose by saying she wouldn't vote FOR Corbyn (abstention is not discussed), though she seems more reticent about Johnson. That is not a complete answer.
Labour was willing in 2010 to ditch Gordon Brown to get Lib Dem support. Why not do the same in 2019?
In this scenario wouldn’t Corbyn have had to overturn a massive Tory poll lead and make significant gains in seats though? At that point he’d presumably have a larger (and more loyal - also due to moderates standing down) PLP.
It’s never easy to put yourself in the shoes of someone else but in those circumstances, if I was one of them, I think I’d play hardball. Worst case I’d be thinking “one more heave”.
Actually no. If the Lib Dems are crucial to Labour forming a government, Labour will have gone backwards in the seat count.
Really? Isn’t this a scenario in which Labour keeps what it has and snatches a few more urban Tory seats (e.g. Telford to be topical), while the LibDems hollow out the Tories where they can’t reach?
This is the point @AlastairMeeks was making to me. Let's look at 1) domestic policies; and 2) Brexit.
On 1) I much prefer the Tories' policies, compared with those of Labour. On 2) well what exactly do Labour want? I'm not sure. We know Jezza is an unreconstructed Leaver, but we also know that the Lab Brexit plan is ludicrous, while on the Cons side we have a deal and a basis to move forward. That is fine for me.
I want you to stop saying this. That Labour's Brexit plan is ludicrous.
I have a clip of Jeremy explaining it which I will share shortly.
Why should he stop saying it's ludicrous if it is? We are all entitled to our opinions.
This is the point @AlastairMeeks was making to me. Let's look at 1) domestic policies; and 2) Brexit.
On 1) I much prefer the Tories' policies, compared with those of Labour. On 2) well what exactly do Labour want? I'm not sure. We know Jezza is an unreconstructed Leaver, but we also know that the Lab Brexit plan is ludicrous, while on the Cons side we have a deal and a basis to move forward. That is fine for me.
I want you to stop saying this. That Labour's Brexit plan is ludicrous.
I have a clip of Jeremy explaining it which I will share shortly.
Is it like a three year-old child explaining quantum physics?
Greens just announced £100 billion a year for the next 10 years for the climate change policies paid for by borrowing £91 billion per annum an £9 billion from corporation tax
Lets borrow a trillion pounds over the next decade . . . for our chidren's sake.
There isn't a Facepalm big enough. 🤦♂️
Terrible! That would take borrowing back to levels not seen since... [checks notes] three years into Cameron's government.
Foxy said "In such a parliament, Lab could form a minority government and get support for individual Bill's, but without a formal arrangement. That is as far as it would go."
In the scenario that the Tories win most seats but fail to get a majority (and can`t form any coalitions) is it possible that a Labour minority government can arise?
I think that it is possible, in this scenario, for the Tories (as incumbents) to limp on as a minority government but I`m noit sure that Labour to claim to the Queen that they can do this without a coalition or C&S from other parties to command a majority.
Maybe I`m wrong - can someone clarify this? Specifically, if the Tories win most seats can Labour take charge as a minority government with fewer MPs than theTories and with no agreements with other parties.
The process AFAIK is this:
1. If someone has an overall majority the Queen says congrats, you're the government. 2. If nobody does, Johnson is entitled to try to struggle on until he runs into a VONC. 3. If he quits or a VONC is passed, the Queen rakes soundings on whether someone else might be able to govern without a VONC (I believe they would need a vote of confidence, but not necessarily with an overall majority voting for it). That includes a minority government surviving through the lack of a VONC - as we've had in the recent weeks. 4. If so, they get invited to have a try. They too can be brought down by a VONC. 5. If not, we get a new election. What joy.
In this situation, the LibDems would have clear choices in the event that they had enough seats to enable either Tory or Labour+SNP+Plaid to outvote the other:
1. Refuse to support a VONC in Johnson and enable him to continue in office. 2. Vote to remove Johnson, but don't support a VONC in Corbyn, enabling him to be PM. 3. Vote against both and force another election.
There is no realistic fourth option - demanding that other parties change their leaders to someone Swinson likes is not serious.. Swinson is avoiding having to choose by saying she wouldn't vote FOR Corbyn (abstention is not discussed), though she seems more reticent about Johnson. That is not a complete answer.
The LDs might quite fancy yet another GE, having secured a lot of second places in Dec 2019 from which they would be better placed to challenge to win seats in Remain voting areas.
Johnson might also fancy yet another GE in circumstances where Farage was a busted flush and the Brexit Party had demonstrated conclusively that it was capable only of denying the Conservative Party the opportunity to win seats in Leave voting areas while being incapable of winning seats in its own right.
If Corbyn (or his cultist heir apparent) were Labour leader, then Labour would be the party likely to lose out.
Given the right wing media have named the alleged whistleblower on air, i am surprised trump hasnt had a 5am twitter outburst linking to the various tweets / articles.
I was worried about what Labour's plans might mean for me and my family, but since I am not an early twentieth century Russian peasant I think I will be ok.
It is BoZo's Brexit that will destroy the British Kulak farmers, not Jezza.
His policy is a No Deal exit at the end of the transition period in December 2020, unless you believe that he can get an FTA agreed with the EU and implemented before then.
That is what the likes of @DavidL and other Tories voting for Johnson are voting for. It is the same policy as that of the ERG and all the others who wanted a departure on 31/10, deal or no deal, just with the date changed.
Quite why falling off a cliff into third country status is in the best interests of those people who fear chaos with Corbyn is unclear to me. It’s another form of chaos, though it has this to be said for it: all those companies and individuals who don’t what this hassle have a year to make plans to avoid it.
Absolutely ridiculous, the 2020 cliff edge, I agree. Plus with a lot of sensible Cons leaving there is not safety net against no deal. That is a real risk. But I continue to believe that no British Prime Minister could leave without a deal and hence I see a fudge ahead if it comes to it, although I also think that there will be significant risks.
Enough for me to cheer on a Labour government? Nope.
While I admire your optimism I think, sadly, you are being naive. The party is now in the hands of those who believe in No Deal and they have the better long-term strategy.
I was very suspicious of the ERG's support for Bozo's deal and the only rational explanation to me is that they intend to No Deal in Dec 2020 and could well have the votes to do it given the exodus of moderates from the party, most of whom I assume will be replaced by Brexit hardliners.
An FTA in the time available will be practically impossible and an extension is already being ruled out so it is going to be comparatively simple to get No Deal by default and I believe that is the strategy, The hardliners will just oppose any deal and block an extension and if Bozo gets a decent majority there will no longer be enough rebels to stop them.
This election isn't resolving Brexit at all, it's pushing the can down the road another year and this time next year we will be on the brink of a No Deal Brexit again
This is the point @AlastairMeeks was making to me. Let's look at 1) domestic policies; and 2) Brexit.
On 1) I much prefer the Tories' policies, compared with those of Labour. On 2) well what exactly do Labour want? I'm not sure. We know Jezza is an unreconstructed Leaver, but we also know that the Lab Brexit plan is ludicrous, while on the Cons side we have a deal and a basis to move forward. That is fine for me.
I want you to stop saying this. That Labour's Brexit plan is ludicrous.
I have a clip of Jeremy explaining it which I will share shortly.
The policy is nonsense in so much as the time line is impossible
Junckers affirmed so yesterday but even if the EU decided to re open the WDA, renegotiating the elements into a new treaty and passing that by 27 leaders, and then putting a referendum legislation through the HOC plus 22 weeks campaigning would take most of 2020
But the larger problem is the EU will not even open talks if they think the labour party will then campaign against their new deal
Can someone give me an answer to the following question:
If the Tories win most seats but fail to get a majority (and can`t form any coalitions) is it possible that a Labour minority government can arise - i.e. could Labour take charge as a minority government despite having fewer MPs than the Tories and with no agreements with other parties?
1. If someone has an overall majority the Queen says congrats, you're the government. 2. If nobody does, Johnson is entitled to try to struggle on until he runs into a VONC. 3. If he quits or a VONC is passed, the Queen rakes soundings on whether someone else might be able to govern without a VONC (I believe they would need a vote of confidence, but not necessarily with an overall majority voting for it). That includes a minority government surviving through the lack of a VONC - as we've had in the recent weeks. 4. If so, they get invited to have a try. They too can be brought down by a VONC. 5. If not, we get a new election. What joy.
In this situation, the LibDems would have clear choices in the event that they had enough seats to enable either Tory or Labour+SNP+Plaid to outvote the other:
1. Refuse to support a VONC in Johnson and enable him to continue in office. 2. Vote to remove Johnson, but don't support a VONC in Corbyn, enabling him to be PM. 3. Vote against both and force another election.
There is no realistic fourth option - demanding that other parties change their leaders to someone Swinson likes is not serious.. Swinson is avoiding having to choose by saying she wouldn't vote FOR Corbyn (abstention is not discussed), though she seems more reticent about Johnson. That is not a complete answer.
Labour was willing in 2010 to ditch Gordon Brown to get Lib Dem support. Why not do the same in 2019?
In this scenario wouldn’t Corbyn have had to overturn a massive Tory poll lead and make significant gains in seats though? At that point he’d presumably have a larger (and more loyal - also due to moderates standing down) PLP.
It’s never easy to put yourself in the shoes of someone else but in those circumstances, if I was one of them, I think I’d play hardball. Worst case I’d be thinking “one more heave”.
Actually no. If the Lib Dems are crucial to Labour forming a government, Labour will have gone backwards in the seat count.
Really? Isn’t this a scenario in which Labour keeps what it has and snatches a few more urban Tory seats (e.g. Telford to be topical), while the LibDems hollow out the Tories where they can’t reach?
Then the SNP will be sufficient.
Fair point. In Labour Gvt scenarios my brain tends to ignore the SNP because I mentally flash back to pre-2010 but forget how many Scottish seats Labour had.
Personally I find it and her rather disturbingly 'mumsnet/schoolgate warrior' but I guess theyve done their research?
I don't like her either but I sense a touch of misogyny in some of the negative comments. Course, she didn't help herself in this regard with spurious claims that "sexism" was to blame for her debate exclusion, but still she seems to attract some OTT abuse. I do think that a greater than average level of personal vitriol is directed against female politicians.
This is the point @AlastairMeeks was making to me. Let's look at 1) domestic policies; and 2) Brexit.
On 1) I much prefer the Tories' policies, compared with those of Labour. On 2) well what exactly do Labour want? I'm not sure. We know Jezza is an unreconstructed Leaver, but we also know that the Lab Brexit plan is ludicrous, while on the Cons side we have a deal and a basis to move forward. That is fine for me.
I want you to stop saying this. That Labour's Brexit plan is ludicrous.
I have a clip of Jeremy explaining it which I will share shortly.
Can someone give me an answer to the following question:
If the Tories win most seats but fail to get a majority (and can`t form any coalitions) is it possible that a Labour minority government can arise - i.e. could Labour take charge as a minority government despite having fewer MPs than the Tories and with no agreements with other parties?
Yes, imo its the most likely outcome assuming the tories are more than a handful of seats short of a majority. Other parties just decide what to do on a vote by vote basis but wont bring the Labour minority down unless its a major issue (or until it suits them!).
Just the far left ones that are anti-israel / pro hamas...
Its like the BNP wheeling out a black guy supporting them in 2010 as proof of their non racist credentials
Or those Tories who pretend to be against bigotry but only ever call out antisemitism because they think it helps their side, ignoring the islamophobia that infests their own party.
Can someone give me an answer to the following question:
If the Tories win most seats but fail to get a majority (and can`t form any coalitions) is it possible that a Labour minority government can arise - i.e. could Labour take charge as a minority government despite having fewer MPs than the Tories and with no agreements with other parties?
Can someone give me an answer to the following question:
If the Tories win most seats but fail to get a majority (and can`t form any coalitions) is it possible that a Labour minority government can arise - i.e. could Labour take charge as a minority government despite having fewer MPs than the Tories and with no agreements with other parties?
Yes, if the other parties wanted rid of Johnson and wouldn’t no confidence Corbyn. Presumably he’d have to make promises on Brexit but I can see that.
"I want you to stop saying this. That Labour's Brexit plan is ludicrous."
At one level, Labour`s policy is not ludicrous.
However, where it is ludicrous is the belief that the EU would be motivated in any way to give the UK a good deal when the EU knows that the referendum will be the deal struck v remain. EU may as well give us bad deal, so that the referendum is bad deal v remain.
It is the failure to understand this which shows Labour, yet again, to be such an incredibly naive bunch.
Can someone give me an answer to the following question:
If the Tories win most seats but fail to get a majority (and can`t form any coalitions) is it possible that a Labour minority government can arise - i.e. could Labour take charge as a minority government despite having fewer MPs than the Tories and with no agreements with other parties?
Yes, it's possible. It would face challenges getting queens speech and a budget through, though. It really depends on the numbers. If Labour + SNP is enough to get a finance bill through, it could survive. No formal agreement needed, just an understanding.
"I want you to stop saying this. That Labour's Brexit plan is ludicrous."
At one level, Labour`s policy is not ludicrous.
However, where it is ludicrous is the belief that the EU would be motivated in any way to give the UK a good deal when the EU knows that the referendum will be the deal struck v remain. EU may as well give us bad deal, so that the referendum is bad deal v remain.
It is the failure to understand this which shows Labour, yet again, to be such an incredibly naive bunch.
To be fair to Labour, I see no reason why the EU wouldn’t talk to them about EEA membership plus a Customs Union. Absent the silly customs union, that’s what most of us used to assume Brexit meant.
Edit - managing the transition into that over a one year transition period is also just about doable.
Personally I find it and her rather disturbingly 'mumsnet/schoolgate warrior' but I guess theyve done their research?
I don't like her either but I sense a touch of misogyny in some of the negative comments. Course, she didn't help herself in this regard with spurious claims that "sexism" was to blame for her debate exclusion, but still she seems to attract some OTT abuse. I do think that a greater than average level of personal vitriol is directed against female politicians.
Society is both a touch misogynist and misandrist. Different rules appear to apply to each of the two traditional genders
"I want you to stop saying this. That Labour's Brexit plan is ludicrous."
At one level, Labour`s policy is not ludicrous.
However, where it is ludicrous is the belief that the EU would be motivated in any way to give the UK a good deal when the EU knows that the referendum will be the deal struck v remain. EU may as well give us bad deal, so that the referendum is bad deal v remain.
It is the failure to understand this which shows Labour, yet again, to be such an incredibly naive bunch.
A referendum before Brexit will just be on the WA and political declaration, not the hard detail of the future relationship, so this objection doesn't apply. We already know exactly what the options are for withdrawal.
"I want you to stop saying this. That Labour's Brexit plan is ludicrous."
At one level, Labour`s policy is not ludicrous.
However, where it is ludicrous is the belief that the EU would be motivated in any way to give the UK a good deal when the EU knows that the referendum will be the deal struck v remain. EU may as well give us bad deal, so that the referendum is bad deal v remain.
It is the failure to understand this which shows Labour, yet again, to be such an incredibly naive bunch.
To be fair to Labour, I see no reason why the EU wouldn’t talk to them about EEA membership plus a Customs Union. Absent the silly customs union, that’s what most of us used to assume Brexit meant.
Edit - managing the transition into that over a one year transition period is also just about doable.
They will not open talks if labour are going to campaign against their deal
noneoftheabove said: "Yes, imo its the most likely outcome assuming the tories are more than a handful of seats short of a majority. Other parties just decide what to do on a vote by vote basis but wont bring the Labour minority down unless its a major issue (or until it suits them!)."
So what you are saying is that in the event of:
1) Tories failing to get a majority 2) no coalitions (or C&Ss) being found (either with the Tories or Labour) making any majority impossible 3) Tories get first dibs to run with a minority - but decline 4) Labour, who in my scenario have fewer seats than Tories remember, are allowed under the rules to take the reins on a minority basis.
Personally I find it and her rather disturbingly 'mumsnet/schoolgate warrior' but I guess theyve done their research?
I don't like her either but I sense a touch of misogyny in some of the negative comments. Course, she didn't help herself in this regard with spurious claims that "sexism" was to blame for her debate exclusion, but still she seems to attract some OTT abuse. I do think that a greater than average level of personal vitriol is directed against female politicians.
Can we lay the ghost of the "misogyny" trope please? Swinson is being judged as a politician. As any politician. People pick up on stuff about anyone in the public domain. Was the stuff about Cameron's shiny face misandry? No.
I get it that we need more women in public life. I get it that our public discourse needs to be less aggressive. But there is way less misogyny around now than when Thatcher had to trail-blaze.
Dominic Grieve hasn't got a chance in hell of retaining Beaconsfield. He's standing for the pay off.
Don't be daft, that's an absolutely ludicrous statement which serves merely to make you look stupidly prejudiced. Why on earth would Dominic Grieve, QC, whose wealth is estimated to be in the millions, and who can easily earn hundreds of grand a year, care a toss about a few grand payoff?
"I want you to stop saying this. That Labour's Brexit plan is ludicrous."
At one level, Labour`s policy is not ludicrous.
However, where it is ludicrous is the belief that the EU would be motivated in any way to give the UK a good deal when the EU knows that the referendum will be the deal struck v remain. EU may as well give us bad deal, so that the referendum is bad deal v remain.
It is the failure to understand this which shows Labour, yet again, to be such an incredibly naive bunch.
To be fair to Labour, I see no reason why the EU wouldn’t talk to them about EEA membership plus a Customs Union. Absent the silly customs union, that’s what most of us used to assume Brexit meant.
Edit - managing the transition into that over a one year transition period is also just about doable.
They will not open talks if labour are going to campaign against their deal
They want this over and not played for fools
Yeah but that doesn’t take much in the way of talks. You reheat the May deal and spend a day on the PD. The EU wouldn’t have an issue with this sort of proposal being worked up for the purposes of a referendum.
Edit - Actually, ironically, in that scenario the EU wouldn’t want to reheat the May deal as it would allow us to bargain hard on EEA membership fees. It would have to be retaining the Boris deal. Even easier.
"I want you to stop saying this. That Labour's Brexit plan is ludicrous."
At one level, Labour`s policy is not ludicrous.
However, where it is ludicrous is the belief that the EU would be motivated in any way to give the UK a good deal when the EU knows that the referendum will be the deal struck v remain. EU may as well give us bad deal, so that the referendum is bad deal v remain.
It is the failure to understand this which shows Labour, yet again, to be such an incredibly naive bunch.
To be fair to Labour, I see no reason why the EU wouldn’t talk to them about EEA membership plus a Customs Union. Absent the silly customs union, that’s what most of us used to assume Brexit meant.
Edit - managing the transition into that over a one year transition period is also just about doable.
They will not open talks if labour are going to campaign against their deal
They want this over and not played for fools
Opening talks with the possibility of campaigning against any deal was the Conservative position too.
Greens just announced £100 billion a year for the next 10 years for the climate change policies paid for by borrowing £91 billion per annum an £9 billion from corporation tax
Lets borrow a trillion pounds over the next decade . . . for our chidren's sake.
There isn't a Facepalm big enough. 🤦♂️
Borrowing money and using it to improve outcomes is called capitalism. If you go back over your notes you will probably find you are meant to be in favour of it. You may or may not agree with the Green theisis about climate change but that is an entirely separate point.
That's true, but that level of stimulus from infrastructure investment will cause problems, quite apart from the debt issue. Better to raise a carbon tax to pay for it (which is also temporary by design because once the job is done there will be no carbon emitted to be taxed).
Dominic Grieve hasn't got a chance in hell of retaining Beaconsfield. He's standing for the pay off. Oh and a few more weeks in the spotlight.
There is something not right that somebody can stand as an independent and, by virtue of getting not even one vote, can trouser tens of thousands of pounds. Perhaps it should be linked to at least saving their deposit. Give it an element of jeapordy...
A Lib Dem propped up Labour minority Gov't likely involves a change of leader in the Labour party, a renegotiation with the EU, another referendum in Scotland and another EU referendum.
All the Tories + Flint + DUP + Zadrozny + 1/2 Sinn Fein will effectively oppose the second ref. The Lib Dems will oppose the Scottish Ref.
If you thought this parliament looked indecisive...
1. If someone has an overall majority the Queen says congrats, you're the government. 2. If nobody does, Johnson is entitled to try to struggle on until he runs into a VONC. 3. If he quits or a VONC is passed, the Queen rakes soundings on whether someone else might be able to govern without a VONC (I believe they would need a vote of confidence, but not necessarily with an overall majority voting for it). That includes a minority government surviving through the lack of a VONC - as we've had in the recent weeks. 4. If so, they get invited to have a try. They too can be brought down by a VONC. 5. If not, we get a new election. What joy.
In this situation, the LibDems would have clear choices in the event that they had enough seats to enable either Tory or Labour+SNP+Plaid to outvote the other:
1. Refuse to support a VONC in Johnson and enable him to continue in office. 2. Vote to remove Johnson, but don't support a VONC in Corbyn, enabling him to be PM. 3. Vote against both and force another election.
There is no realistic fourth option - demanding that other parties change their leaders to someone Swinson likes is not serious.. Swinson is avoiding having to choose by saying she wouldn't vote FOR Corbyn (abstention is not discussed), though she seems more reticent about Johnson. That is not a complete answer.
Labour was willing in 2010 to ditch Gordon Brown to get Lib Dem support. Why not do the same in 2019?
In this scenario wouldn’t Corbyn have had to overturn a massive Tory poll lead and make significant gains in seats though? At that point he’d presumably have a larger (and more loyal - also due to moderates standing down) PLP.
It’s never easy to put yourself in the shoes of someone else but in those circumstances, if I was one of them, I think I’d play hardball. Worst case I’d be thinking “one more heave”.
Actually no. If the Lib Dems are crucial to Labour forming a government, Labour will have gone backwards in the seat count.
Its possible for Labour and the other potentially aligned parties to have all gone forwards and LDs to be crucial.
Current state of the parties prior to dissolution: Tory 298 Labour 243 SNP 35 LD 20
Scenario: Tory 310 Labour 250 SNP 40 LD 30 NI 18 Others 2
All parties have gone forward but LDs are still crucial. They would be kingmakers.
Why should he stop saying it's ludicrous if it is? We are all entitled to our opinions.
Usually yes. But this particular opinion has been comprehensively debunked and therefore ought not to be still floating around.
If people want to believe labours plan is ludicrous it's not really for labour to 'debunk' that. They can say no, its totes amazeballs but that's not 'debunking'
A Lib Dem propped up Labour minority Gov't likely involves a change of leader in the Labour party, a renegotiation with the EU, another referendum in Scotland and another EU referendum.
Which incoming Labour leader do you think will agree to an independence referendum in Scotland, and why do you think the Lib Dems would vote for it?
Greens just announced £100 billion a year for the next 10 years for the climate change policies paid for by borrowing £91 billion per annum an £9 billion from corporation tax
Lets borrow a trillion pounds over the next decade . . . for our chidren's sake.
There isn't a Facepalm big enough. 🤦♂️
Borrowing money and using it to improve outcomes is called capitalism. If you go back over your notes you will probably find you are meant to be in favour of it. You may or may not agree with the Green theisis about climate change but that is an entirely separate point.
You'll have to find some definition of capitalism that includes the state borrowing a trillion pounds for one policy alone. Its not in any of my notes.
I just tuned in to Corbyn. Did he make the press submit all their questions in one, so that he’s now answering them in one? No follow ups? He’s going to piss them off. Not wise.
Can someone give me an answer to the following question:
If the Tories win most seats but fail to get a majority (and can`t form any coalitions) is it possible that a Labour minority government can arise - i.e. could Labour take charge as a minority government despite having fewer MPs than the Tories and with no agreements with other parties?
Yes. That happened after the December 1923 general election when Conservatives were the biggest party but had their King's speech voted down in January 1924.
Labour then formed a minority government that lasted just 9 months.
Greens just announced £100 billion a year for the next 10 years for the climate change policies paid for by borrowing £91 billion per annum an £9 billion from corporation tax
Lets borrow a trillion pounds over the next decade . . . for our chidren's sake.
There isn't a Facepalm big enough. 🤦♂️
Terrible! That would take borrowing back to levels not seen since... [checks notes] three years into Cameron's government.
You might note that we have yet to pay any of that off...
Dominic Grieve hasn't got a chance in hell of retaining Beaconsfield. He's standing for the pay off. Oh and a few more weeks in the spotlight.
There is something not right that somebody can stand as an independent and, by virtue of getting not even one vote, can trouser tens of thousands of pounds. Perhaps it should be linked to at least saving their deposit. Give it an element of jeapordy...
What difference does being an independent make? They're still an MP.
A Lib Dem propped up Labour minority Gov't likely involves a change of leader in the Labour party, a renegotiation with the EU, another referendum in Scotland and another EU referendum.
Which incoming Labour leader do you think will agree to an independence referendum in Scotland, and why do you think the Lib Dems would vote for it?
I'm running into internal contradictions very quickly indeed in my Lab minority scenario. Looks like a recipe for chaos !
Greens just announced £100 billion a year for the next 10 years for the climate change policies paid for by borrowing £91 billion per annum an £9 billion from corporation tax
Lets borrow a trillion pounds over the next decade . . . for our chidren's sake.
There isn't a Facepalm big enough. 🤦♂️
Terrible! That would take borrowing back to levels not seen since... [checks notes] three years into Cameron's government.
Indeed and three years into Cameron's government we were desperately trying to bring down borrowing because it was out of control, not deliberately trying to increase it!
One Nation Tories are abandoning the former Conservative and Unionist Party as it becomes the party of Bridgen, Francois, Rees Mogg, Patel and Raab. Yep, they will win this coming election thanks to Mr Corbyn, but beyond that what do they have? There is no talent anywhere to be seen, just dull, leaden, hard right, English nationalist, empathy-free, automatons. Those sitting next to and behind Johnson in the next parliament will tell the story of what the Tories now are. The post-December future looks extremely bleak for them - and for the country.
Brexit has brought about a huge shift in voting patterns and the upcoming Tory majority is nailed on thanks to Corbyn.
But that majority is not going to be made up in the way Tory Governments are normally made up, one-nation, remain Tories will be hollowed out being replaced by ex-Labour leavers and ex-Kippers.
What intrigues me is how does the party of Bozo, Rees-Mogg, Patel, Raab and the ERG go about holding onto to seats like Workington, Stoke and Grimsby once the dust of the Brexit battle dies down?
Once Brexit is over there seems to me to be a huge disconnect between the ideology of the new Conservative Party and many of the people that are going to give it its majority in the north and midlands and Wales.
That's for them to work out. I think it's not a bad thing that the Conservatives should be forced to work out how to appeal to voters they've rarely had to appeal to in the past.
Listening to Corbyn he seems to be much less of a firebrand
Indeed he looks tired and unconvincing
I am not sure firebrand is generally a good look for GE campaigns. Perhaps he has been told to turn it down so not to scare the horses. Its not like he has to convince the hard left types that would be enthused by such talk to vote for him.
Why should he stop saying it's ludicrous if it is? We are all entitled to our opinions.
Usually yes. But this particular opinion has been comprehensively debunked and therefore ought not to be still floating around.
If people want to believe labours plan is ludicrous it's not really for labour to 'debunk' that. They can say no, its totes amazeballs but that's not 'debunking'
it is for Labour to debunk - but they have failed to do so.
Personally I find it and her rather disturbingly 'mumsnet/schoolgate warrior' but I guess theyve done their research?
I don't like her either but I sense a touch of misogyny in some of the negative comments. Course, she didn't help herself in this regard with spurious claims that "sexism" was to blame for her debate exclusion, but still she seems to attract some OTT abuse. I do think that a greater than average level of personal vitriol is directed against female politicians.
She utterly lacks the personal charisma that would allow her to appeal beyond the narrow base she has defined for the LDs. It is difficulty to put a finger on it, but there is just something about her lecturing style that grates. She is I think putting off people who don't particularly care that much about Brexit, one way or the other.
Greens just announced £100 billion a year for the next 10 years for the climate change policies paid for by borrowing £91 billion per annum an £9 billion from corporation tax
Lets borrow a trillion pounds over the next decade . . . for our chidren's sake.
There isn't a Facepalm big enough. 🤦♂️
Borrowing money and using it to improve outcomes is called capitalism. If you go back over your notes you will probably find you are meant to be in favour of it. You may or may not agree with the Green theisis about climate change but that is an entirely separate point.
That's true, but that level of stimulus from infrastructure investment will cause problems, quite apart from the debt issue. Better to raise a carbon tax to pay for it (which is also temporary by design because once the job is done there will be no carbon emitted to be taxed).
Problem is - tax income for Government, any Government, is like crack. No tax is ever temporary despite good intentions Especially if that specific tax revenue is used to pay for other things (which it always is).
A carbon tax, and the revenues it would generate would paradoxically require carbon to continue to be (excessively) produced, as it if has the intended effect of reducing CO2 to whatever target to stop the tax - where's the cash coming from the continue to pay for all the lovely things the tax paid for?
There'll have to be another thing to tax. And then another, And then another.
The policy is nonsense in so much as the time line is impossible
Junckers affirmed so yesterday but even if the EU decided to re open the WDA, renegotiating the elements into a new treaty and passing that by 27 leaders, and then putting a referendum legislation through the HOC plus 22 weeks campaigning would take most of 2020
But the larger problem is the EU will not even open talks if they think the labour party will then campaign against their new deal
Yes, the cramped timeline is a valid concern. But it's even more of a concern as regards the FTA after Boris Brexit on 31 Jan.
Your last point, however, is not so valid. The EU would certainly not refuse to negotiate a closer alignment deal with an incoming Labour government. That or Remain, it's a win win for them.
I just tuned in to Corbyn. Did he make the press submit all their questions in one, so that he’s now answering them in one? No follow ups? He’s going to piss them off. Not wise.
As to who I shall vote for, it will either be the Lib Dems or the Greens (probably the Lib Dems). Once you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.
I feel for those who feel obligated to vote but have no enthusiasm for what is on offer(as I am such). The appeal of staying home is high, but I wont do it.
As to who I shall vote for, it will either be the Lib Dems or the Greens (probably the Lib Dems). Once you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.
I feel for those who feel obligated to vote but have no enthusiasm for what is on offer(as I am such). The appeal of staying home is high, but I wont do it.
Go an spoil your ballot paper in the ballot booth.
Personally I find it and her rather disturbingly 'mumsnet/schoolgate warrior' but I guess theyve done their research?
I don't like her either but I sense a touch of misogyny in some of the negative comments. Course, she didn't help herself in this regard with spurious claims that "sexism" was to blame for her debate exclusion, but still she seems to attract some OTT abuse. I do think that a greater than average level of personal vitriol is directed against female politicians.
She utterly lacks the personal charisma that would allow her to appeal beyond the narrow base she has defined for the LDs. It is difficulty to put a finger on it, but there is just something about her lecturing style that grates. She is I think putting off people who don't particularly care that much about Brexit, one way or the other.
Her personal style seems to be 'Ambitious Assistant Headteacher, who arrives at a challenging school and starts loads of 'initiatives' which make more work for already overworked staff, before pissing off to a Deputy Head post at an academy chain within one year'.
Brexit has brought about a huge shift in voting patterns and the upcoming Tory majority is nailed on thanks to Corbyn.
But that majority is not going to be made up in the way Tory Governments are normally made up, one-nation, remain Tories will be hollowed out being replaced by ex-Labour leavers and ex-Kippers.
What intrigues me is how does the party of Bozo, Rees-Mogg, Patel, Raab and the ERG go about holding onto to seats like Workington, Stoke and Grimsby once the dust of the Brexit battle dies down?
Once Brexit is over there seems to me to be a huge disconnect between the ideology of the new Conservative Party and many of the people that are going to give it its majority in the north and midlands and Wales.
Once Brexit is resolved it'll be time for a change of government I'd have thought (depending on whether Labour come back to their senses and get a leader that's electable of course)
Come 2024 the Tories will have had 14 years in office so I can't see them going on much longer than that.
The 2024 general election should be very winnable for Labour but again it depends on who follows Corbyn.
I just tuned in to Corbyn. Did he make the press submit all their questions in one, so that he’s now answering them in one? No follow ups? He’s going to piss them off. Not wise.
Asked in bunches of four (up from three last time). Tricky ones ignored, difficult ones skated over, planted questions answered at length.
And as you say, follow-ups are very difficult.
Journos already cheesed off with this, but difficult to solve unless they ask the same question four times (this may happen!).
I just tuned in to Corbyn. Did he make the press submit all their questions in one, so that he’s now answering them in one? No follow ups? He’s going to piss them off. Not wise.
Running scared.
Laura Kuenessberg objecting that Corbyn is wrong to ask 4 questions at a time
More generally, Boris Johnson is trashing everything about the Conservative party (with the full backing of the zealots he leads) that these Conservatives value: respect for law; sound money; sceptical conservatism.
His policy is a No Deal exit at the end of the transition period in December 2020, unless you believe that he can get an FTA agreed with the EU and implemented before then.
That is what the likes of @DavidL and other Tories voting for Johnson are voting for. It is the same policy as that of the ERG and all the others who wanted a departure on 31/10, deal or no deal, just with the date changed.
Quite why falling off a cliff into third country status is in the best interests of those people who fear chaos with Corbyn is unclear to me. It’s another form of chaos, though it has this to be said for it: all those companies and individuals who don’t what this hassle have a year to make plans to avoid it.
The danger is real, but iirc you like I thought boris wanted no deal in October, and we were wrong
I just tuned in to Corbyn. Did he make the press submit all their questions in one, so that he’s now answering them in one? No follow ups? He’s going to piss them off. Not wise.
Running scared.
Laura Kuenessberg objecting that Corbyn is wrong to ask 4 questions at a time
I just tuned in to Corbyn. Did he make the press submit all their questions in one, so that he’s now answering them in one? No follow ups? He’s going to piss them off. Not wise.
Running scared.
Laura Kuenessberg objecting that Corbyn is wrong to ask 4 questions at a time
A Lib Dem propped up Labour minority Gov't likely involves a change of leader in the Labour party, a renegotiation with the EU, another referendum in Scotland and another EU referendum.
Which incoming Labour leader do you think will agree to an independence referendum in Scotland, and why do you think the Lib Dems would vote for it?
I'm running into internal contradictions very quickly indeed in my Lab minority scenario. Looks like a recipe for chaos !
Not really, I just think you have flaws in your assumptions. The Lib Dems are opposed to an independence referendum and will vote against one should it come up in parliament. So that would not be part of a Labour/Lib Dem deal. Labour might acquiesce on that demand from the SNP, but Labour certainly won't demand it from the Lib Dems. They are, after all, a unionist party. A Labour/Lib Dem arrangement would probably see an attempt to bring a new EU referendum to the table.
Also, I think the chances of a deal being struck that requires any party to change their leader are higher than they've ever been, i.e. merely extremely unlikely.
Early contender in the 'most dodgy graph in a leaflet' competition, and it's the Lib Dems. They've been strong in this category before, but the Scottish Tories might run them close this year.
I really feel that if there is no clear majority after this GE then there will be serious discussions of moving to a form of PR, accompanied by a complete shake up of the party systems.
Looking back at the complete horlicks of the past three years this may not be a bad thing.
You need to wait the announcement but if Corbyn/McDonnell confirm this it is beyond stupid and is a 'dementia tax' moment
Really? We all risk getting dementia when we're old, and in middle age we all risk having a dementia affected parent.
The delusion that a significant number of voters will be affected by the IHT threshold dropping to £125k merely shows how isolated from the real world are poshos like Dorries ( there's nothing special about having gone to a state school, and back in Liverpool, an MP's salary looks astronomically high) and people well-heeled enough to bet on politics as a hobby.
The average house price is £226 000, over 60% of voters are homeowners or children of homeowners so most voters would be affected.
It shows how ideological and out of touch Corbynistas are they do not realise that
"All aboard!" Is it a request stop service then? Be fun when some people start flagging it down - and then telling them they have to wait until they've done their shopping at Asda.....
I really feel that if there is no clear majority after this GE then there will be serious discussions of moving to a form of PR, accompanied by a complete shake up of the party systems.
Looking back at the complete horlicks of the past three years this may not be a bad thing.
I don't think you can separate the discussion about PR from addressing the absence of an English parliament.
Greens just announced £100 billion a year for the next 10 years for the climate change policies paid for by borrowing £91 billion per annum an £9 billion from corporation tax
Lets borrow a trillion pounds over the next decade . . . for our chidren's sake.
There isn't a Facepalm big enough. 🤦♂️
Borrowing money and using it to improve outcomes is called capitalism. If you go back over your notes you will probably find you are meant to be in favour of it. You may or may not agree with the Green theisis about climate change but that is an entirely separate point.
You'll have to find some definition of capitalism that includes the state borrowing a trillion pounds for one policy alone. Its not in any of my notes.
Comments
Not when it is borrowing by the state.
We are all entitled to our opinions.
Some jews are alright
Johnson might also fancy yet another GE in circumstances where Farage was a busted flush and the Brexit Party had demonstrated conclusively that it was capable only of denying the Conservative Party the opportunity to win seats in Leave voting areas while being incapable of winning seats in its own right.
If Corbyn (or his cultist heir apparent) were Labour leader, then Labour would be the party likely to lose out.
Satisfied/dissatisfied
Boris Johnson: 46/44 (+2)
Jeremy Corbyn: 15/75 (-60)
Jo Swinson: 29/41 (-12)
You wouldn't say Swinson is exactly setting the world alight in the popularity stakes would you?
Maybe Lib-Dems think the problem is that most people have never heard of her?
An FTA in the time available will be practically impossible and an extension is already being ruled out so it is going to be comparatively simple to get No Deal by default and I believe that is the strategy, The hardliners will just oppose any deal and block an extension and if Bozo gets a decent majority there will no longer be enough rebels to stop them.
This election isn't resolving Brexit at all, it's pushing the can down the road another year and this time next year we will be on the brink of a No Deal Brexit again
Junckers affirmed so yesterday but even if the EU decided to re open the WDA, renegotiating the elements into a new treaty and passing that by 27 leaders, and then putting a referendum legislation through the HOC plus 22 weeks campaigning would take most of 2020
But the larger problem is the EU will not even open talks if they think the labour party will then campaign against their new deal
If the Tories win most seats but fail to get a majority (and can`t form any coalitions) is it possible that a Labour minority government can arise - i.e. could Labour take charge as a minority government despite having fewer MPs than the Tories and with no agreements with other parties?
When you're explaining, you're losing.
Can’t see such a Gvt lasting long though.
"I want you to stop saying this. That Labour's Brexit plan is ludicrous."
At one level, Labour`s policy is not ludicrous.
However, where it is ludicrous is the belief that the EU would be motivated in any way to give the UK a good deal when the EU knows that the referendum will be the deal struck v remain. EU may as well give us bad deal, so that the referendum is bad deal v remain.
It is the failure to understand this which shows Labour, yet again, to be such an incredibly naive bunch.
Edit - managing the transition into that over a one year transition period is also just about doable.
He's standing for the pay off.
Oh and a few more weeks in the spotlight.
They want this over and not played for fools
On the book front:
https://twitter.com/MorrisF1/status/1186559913692160003
So what you are saying is that in the event of:
1) Tories failing to get a majority
2) no coalitions (or C&Ss) being found (either with the Tories or Labour) making any majority impossible
3) Tories get first dibs to run with a minority - but decline
4) Labour, who in my scenario have fewer seats than Tories remember, are allowed under the rules to take the reins on a minority basis.
Are you sure?
I get it that we need more women in public life. I get it that our public discourse needs to be less aggressive. But there is way less misogyny around now than when Thatcher had to trail-blaze.
Indeed he looks tired and unconvincing
Edit - Actually, ironically, in that scenario the EU wouldn’t want to reheat the May deal as it would allow us to bargain hard on EEA membership fees. It would have to be retaining the Boris deal. Even easier.
All the Tories + Flint + DUP + Zadrozny + 1/2 Sinn Fein will effectively oppose the second ref.
The Lib Dems will oppose the Scottish Ref.
If you thought this parliament looked indecisive...
Current state of the parties prior to dissolution:
Tory 298
Labour 243
SNP 35
LD 20
Scenario:
Tory 310
Labour 250
SNP 40
LD 30
NI 18
Others 2
All parties have gone forward but LDs are still crucial. They would be kingmakers.
Doubling down on being wrong.....
Labour then formed a minority government that lasted just 9 months.
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1191815218277605376
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1192037394008170496
And devastating for Trump:
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/05/impeachment-testimony-released-gordon-sondland-kurt-volker-065990
A carbon tax, and the revenues it would generate would paradoxically require carbon to continue to be (excessively) produced, as it if has the intended effect of reducing CO2 to whatever target to stop the tax - where's the cash coming from the continue to pay for all the lovely things the tax paid for?
There'll have to be another thing to tax. And then another, And then another.
Johnson - Coventry South
Corbyn - Stroud
Your last point, however, is not so valid. The EU would certainly not refuse to negotiate a closer alignment deal with an incoming Labour government. That or Remain, it's a win win for them.
https://twitter.com/stewartwood/status/1191801887194058752?s=21
And one should note that US pharma has a very large presence outside of the US - notably, from our point of view, in the Republic of Ireland.
Once Brexit is resolved it'll be time for a change of government I'd have thought (depending on whether Labour come back to their senses and get a leader that's electable of course)
Come 2024 the Tories will have had 14 years in office so I can't see them going on much longer than that.
The 2024 general election should be very winnable for Labour but again it depends on who follows Corbyn.
And as you say, follow-ups are very difficult.
Journos already cheesed off with this, but difficult to solve unless they ask the same question four times (this may happen!).
https://twitter.com/LibDemPress/status/1192003069380300804
Jeremy Corbyn once again dodging all the questions put to him. absolutely no accountability. Really quite shocking.
A Labour/Lib Dem arrangement would probably see an attempt to bring a new EU referendum to the table.
Also, I think the chances of a deal being struck that requires any party to change their leader are higher than they've ever been, i.e. merely extremely unlikely.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1192044683742056449
Looking back at the complete horlicks of the past three years this may not be a bad thing.
It shows how ideological and out of touch Corbynistas are they do not realise that