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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A key GE19 battleground: The GE2017 Tories who voted Remain

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  • Mr Alanbrooke: What like Brexiteers you mean? No-one gave a shit about the EU before all this pointless nonsense was stirred up. And no, not everyone has values, Boris Johnson is a good example. Additionally Ms Swinson is not "forcing" anything on anyone. She is seeking to persuade them to vote for her, so please stop being silly.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    So we now know the pattern of the campaign.

    James Cleverley pops up on the BBC every morning to apologise for the actions of his colleagues the previous day.


  • I have voted in every GE since 1983, but never in a seat that has changed hands. Only for about 20% of us is there a realistic chance of this, the other 80% of us might as well sit it out. One reason for the high turnout for the referendums was that every vote counts in a way that FPTP doesn't.

    Indeed. It is bizarre that that many make the audacious claim that the EU is undemocratic, while we have a system where in practicality 80% of us our votes count for nothing. It is a system that would make a banana republic blush.

    Agreed

    I have voted in every election since 1979, never for the winner, apart from 2015 when I voted for the tory! It was in the mistaken belief that I was voting for the coalition! I will never trust the tories again after they shafted the Libdems at that election!


  • Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    "Reject that false choice. It is not Corbyn vs Johnson. Outside Lab held seats it is perfectly safe to vote LD."

    I can`t help thinking that the LDs are dogging a hole for themselves by promising that they would never back Corbyn to become PM in any circumstances.

    If the Tories fail to get a majority and a Lab/LD/SNP coalition or C&S would be the only way to enable a 2nd referendum then LDs will come under stong pressure to recant on their promise. Tuition fees?

    Lib Dems Dogging !!!!!

    The mind boggles.
  • Good morning and I would simply point out that remain voting Tories who voted Tory in 2017 soon after the Referendum are far less likely to defect to the Liberals than the Liberals on here think. For all the girl guide from Dunbartonshire says she wont support a Corbyn government, they will realise that installing LibDem MPs makes a Corbyn government more likely.

    If she is going to parade around the country for the next 5 weeks screeching at everyone like Violet Elizabeth, who is going to ensure she remains an MP? It would be somewhat ironic if she presides over an increase in Liberal MPs and loses her own seat. It would make Chris Patten's defeat in 1992 look less like a Greek tragedy.

    I'm not a fan of Swinson and thought her launch was astonishingly weak (I'm gonna be PM+we hate Brexit+we hate Corbyn, and er that's it), but can we skip the sexist derision ("girl guide", "screeching", "Violet Elizabeth")? There are plenty of reasons not to vote LibDem, but the fact that the leader is female is not one of them.
    Whilst I broadly agree @NickPalmer that we need to be more respectful and less pejorative, use of phrases such as “girl guide” to allude to Jo Swinson's junior/lack of experience are not necessarily sexist. Nor is “screeching” to denote her tone, although ”hectoring” might be better.

    We can be very quick to see sexism in colourful and descriptive phrases where sometimes it isn’t.

    Plus Ms Swinson is repeatedly making her gender an issue.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722
    Alistair said:

    For those keeping score and hat takes us to 8 states that voted Trump having now elected a Democratic governor.

    It will be interesting to see if Britain Trump is as effective at motivating opposition voters.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    The Conservatives will undoubtedly lose some Remainer votes. That's a given. But in terms of those aversion to Brexit. The LibDems are

    But I get the strong impression these Remain Tories are looking for a reason to stay with the party. Brexit doesn't define who they are politically. A campaign that says yes, we will get Brexit delivered, but look, these are the reasons beyond Brexit to vote for us is a campaign that can still have considerable traction with them.

    If you are looking for late movement in the polls in this election, it could come about from two directions: Brexit Party supporters realising that a vote for the Brexit Party kills Brexit; and previous Tories realising that, once we get beyond Brexit - and boy do they want us to get beyond Brexit - their best interests are still served by a Conservative government.

    “We hate you and despise you, you treacherous quislings, now vote for us” is unlikely to be a viable election slogan for the Conservatives.
    Some of us actually bother to make detailed reasoned post on here. Whilst some just keep regurgitating their vomit.
    Every time your coterie of death cultists celebrate the expulsion of another Conservative MP for failing to eir votes.

    You might not see their problem. But they do.
    I see the problem but we
    Reject that false choice. It is not Corbyn vs Johnson. Outside Lab held seats it is perfectly safe to vote LD.
    It's really not. If Corbyn is to be held at bay the Tories need to define it.
    Foxy’s a Lib voter with Labour sympathies.

    To the rest of us, it’s safe to vote Liberal Democrat in a LABOUR held seat.
    I am a current member of the LDs, and former member of the Lab party. I moved over after the Iraq war mongering.

    To me, the depiction of Corbyn as a stalinist is bizarre. It is Johnson's party that is ruthlessly purging dissenters, dictating top down policy, and persuing ideological policies regardless of economic consequences.

    Johnson and Stalin also share youthful womanising, a sense of humour and a ruthless lust for power.
    At least we know Corbyn has key allies who are, or were, stalinist, but it's at best a bit over the top and the suggestion from here last night, rather than Boris, that Corbyn was like stalin himself was bizarre and offensive, and I say that as no fan of corbyn. It was because of Corbyn I voted Tory for the first time in 2017.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    So we now know the pattern of the campaign.

    James Cleverley pops up on the BBC every morning to apologise for the actions of his colleagues the previous day.

    And in the ensuing chaos Boris escapes scrutiny for another day and the debate remains polarised helping Boris back to number 10.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Re: Angela Smith`s letter to the Independent Parliamentary Authority.

    She has realised that due to switching seats she will not be eligible for more taxpayer bunce should she fail to be re-elected. In her letter she complains that she will lose out by £22,000 tax free plus two months` pay.

    She has been an MP for over 14 years (current earnings £80, 000 per annum plus plus (with self employed advantages) and employed her husband as her assistant (at £40,000 per annum) yet in her letter she says “I will not be able to meet my mortgage payments and many other bills I am liable for”). She`s also crap at money management then!

    She was also embroiled in the expenses scandal - at one point voting to keep MP expenses secret.

    I hope that the other candidates in her new constituency are making merry over this. A gift to Graham Brady surely?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited November 2019
    Head office getting in early I see. First quick action theyve taken.

    Its good theres been actual apologies not fake apologies, though I understand why some dont bother - a lot of people demand further action even if people apologise.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Mr Alanbrooke: What like Brexiteers you mean? No-one gave a shit about the EU before all this pointless nonsense was stirred up. And no, not everyone has values, Boris Johnson is a good example. Additionally Ms Swinson is not "forcing" anything on anyone. She is seeking to persuade them to vote for her, so please stop being silly.

    Nice Mr Cameron called the EU ref nobody made him do it.
    Johnsons does have values but they are largely centred around himself
    Comments on la Swinson are based on how she comes across to me. Ive voted LD in the past but wouldnt vote for her, so for me not very persuasive,
  • 30% going LD seems high. I suspect as polling day approaches a chunk of that will go back to the tories as the choice becomes a clearer Corbyn or Johnson question.with Johnson's deal he is now offering a similar brexit to what May was talking about in 2017 and if it was enough for these people to vote tory then it will be now. Of course some will be put off by the character of Johnson, but that won't be the decider for most people.

    The LDs need some sort of cleggmania breakthrough at this point or else they will suffer the familiar FPTP squeeze effect from both sides. They will still increase their seats and votes from 2017 but not by enough.

    So far the campaign hasn't felt very much about Brexit. It's still in the Phoney War stage so that could change but it could be a sign that this won't really be a brexit election after all.

    I can only comment from a personal view, and anecdotally a few family and friends. I chickened out of voting LD last time, even though I was strongly tempted. However, the Tory party is now a very different beast from then, and very very different to the party that I used to be an activist for. I will be voting LD on this occasion, and I won't be changing my mind. I hope for another hung parliament, with both the main parties losing enough support for them both to consider more moderate approaches to politics.

    A vote for the LDs is a vote against extremism.
  • I was worried about what Labour's plans might mean for me and my family, but since I am not an early twentieth century Russian peasant I think I will be ok.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Cleverleys struggles on radio 4 this morning.

    Remember project fear that didn’t work. Tory’s are turning their attack on Labour’s Brexit policy into Project Fake, and shooting their own feet off.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Jonathan said:

    Boris lowering the temperature didn’t last long.

    Comparing any current British politician to Hitler or Stalin is wrong. It wrong when people do it on social media, it’s doubly wrong when politicians do it. When the PM does it, he sets a bad precedent and gives permission to every nutter and extremist out there.

    Where did he do that?
    He said something like Corbyn threatens the rich more than anyone has threatened a group since Stalin attacked the Kulacks.

    More sophisticated than “you’re Stalin you are”
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    30% going LD seems high. I suspect as polling day approaches a chunk of that will go back to the tories as the choice becomes a clearer Corbyn or Johnson question.with Johnson's deal he is now offering a similar brexit to what May was talking about in 2017 and if it was enough for these people to vote tory then it will be now. Of course some will be put off by the character of Johnson, but that won't be the decider for most people.

    The LDs need some sort of cleggmania breakthrough at this point or else they will suffer the familiar FPTP squeeze effect from both sides. They will still increase their seats and votes from 2017 but not by enough.

    So far the campaign hasn't felt very much about Brexit. It's still in the Phoney War stage so that could change but it could be a sign that this won't really be a brexit election after all.

    I can only comment from a personal view, and anecdotally a few family and friends. I chickened out of voting LD last time, even though I was strongly tempted. However, the Tory party is now a very different beast from then, and very very different to the party that I used to be an activist for. I will be voting LD on this occasion, and I won't be changing my mind. I hope for another hung parliament, with both the main parties losing enough support for them both to consider more moderate approaches to politics.

    A vote for the LDs is a vote against extremism.
    a vote for the LDs is a vote for the status quo in country looking for change.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    In all seriousness media people are already joking about the tories having another shit campaign, they really need an early positive to knock such joking from developing into a trend.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722

    I was worried about what Labour's plans might mean for me and my family, but since I am not an early twentieth century Russian peasant I think I will be ok.

    It is BoZo's Brexit that will destroy the British Kulak farmers, not Jezza.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    egg said:

    Cleverleys struggles on radio 4 this morning.

    Remember project fear that didn’t work. Tory’s are turning their attack on Labour’s Brexit policy into Project Fake, and shooting their own feet off.

    I’m not talking about merits demerits of two completely different brexit policies, my point is about an election campaign full of unforced errors And badly run.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    Alistair said:

    For those keeping score and hat takes us to 8 states that voted Trump having now elected a Democratic governor.

    Do gubernatorial races correlate with POTUS ?

    Nevertheless positive for my generally pro Dem General betting positions (I think)
    kle4 said:

    In all seriousness media people are already joking about the tories having another shit campaign, they really need an early positive to knock such joking from developing into a trend.
    It's Kevin Schofield, Mr Daily Mirror.
  • Good morning and I would simply point out that remain voting Tories who voted Tory in 2017 soon after the Referendum are far less likely to defect to the Liberals than the Liberals on here think. For all the girl guide from Dunbartonshire says she wont support a Corbyn government, they will realise that installing LibDem MPs makes a Corbyn government more likely.

    If she is going to parade around the country for the next 5 weeks screeching at everyone like Violet Elizabeth, who is going to ensure she remains an MP? It would be somewhat ironic if she presides over an increase in Liberal MPs and loses her own seat. It would make Chris Patten's defeat in 1992 look less like a Greek tragedy.

    I'm not a fan of Swinson and thought her launch was astonishingly weak (I'm gonna be PM+we hate Brexit+we hate Corbyn, and er that's it), but can we skip the sexist derision ("girl guide", "screeching", "Violet Elizabeth")? There are plenty of reasons not to vote LibDem, but the fact that the leader is female is not one of them.
    Whilst I broadly agree @NickPalmer that we need to be more respectful and less pejorative, use of phrases such as “girl guide” to allude to Jo Swinson's junior/lack of experience are not necessarily sexist. Nor is “screeching” to denote her tone, although ”hectoring” might be better.

    We can be very quick to see sexism in colourful and descriptive phrases where sometimes it isn’t.

    Plus Ms Swinson is repeatedly making her gender an issue.

    I am with Nick Palmer on this. It IS sexist, plain as can be. If those comments were made in the work place it would be called out for what it is. Language often subtly reveals peoples' real approach and beliefs, just as Rees-Mogg showed himself up the other day.
  • Danny:

    A common theme of prime ministerial memoirs is that there was so much more to the job than setting a direction and watching the machine follow it. They personally lead. They personally make judgments.

    To believe that stopping Brexit is a national emergency and that Boris Johnson is so off-putting that it justifies a Corbyn government is a rational decision. I won’t make it but some of my friends will and I respect that. But let no one vote pretending to themselves that a Corbyn government could never happen or that, if it did, it wouldn’t matter. It could and it would.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/fd17587c-ffe9-11e9-ac10-05df8e730a81
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    The Conservatives will undoubtedly lose some Remainer votes. That's a given. But in terms of those aversion to Brexit. The LibDems are

    But I get the strong impression these Remain Tories are looking for a reason to stay with the party. Brexit doesn't define who they are politically. A campaign that says yes, we will get Brexit delivered, but look, these are the reasons beyond Brexit to vote for us is a campaign that can still have considerable traction with them.

    If you are looking for late movement in the polls in this election, it could come about from two directions: Brexit Party supporters realising that a vote for the Brexit Party kills Brexit; and previous Tories realising that, once we get beyond Brexit - and boy do they want us to get beyond Brexit - their best interests are still served by a Conservative government.

    “We hate you and despise you, you treacherous quislings, now vote for us” is unlikely to be a viable election slogan for the Conservatives.
    Some of us actually bother to make detailed reasoned post on here. Whilst some just keep regurgitating their vomit.
    Every time your coterie of death cultists celebrate the expulsion of another Conservative MP for failing to collude in chaos and the imposition of a policy that no one voted for, you reinforce the message that the Conservative party has become a narrow sect.

    And now, having spent years spitting venom at anyone who does not submit completely to your obsession, you ask for their votes.

    You might not see their problem. But they do.
    I see the problem but we have an election where the offer is before us. With all the cuteness of tactical voting we are nevertheless faced with Corbyn vs the Conservatives.

    The party has changed significantly but these people were always there albeit in the background. If they can convince that there are some sensible heads then 2017 Remain Conservatives might well remain 2019 Conservatives.

    Because as @MarqueeMark notes we are Conservatives, oh and also Jeremy Corbyn.
    Reject that false choice. It is not Corbyn vs Johnson. Outside Lab held seats it is perfectly safe to vote LD.
    In safe seats. But if you really want remain in most of the non labour seats you still vote labour if you go by the last vote. Do we think the LDs will successfully convince people they are better placed despite being third or worse in many seats?
  • As a Tory Remainer I'm glad I live in a Lab/LD marginal.

    As someone who views Brexit and Corbynism as two cheeks of the same arse it would be a difficult choice in a Tory/Lab marginal.

    I think the UK can survive Brexit because if it is a disaster the UK will rejoin the EU PDQ, replete with the Euro, and it'll be worth it to see the reaction of the Leavers that made it possible.

    I'm not sure the UK can survive Corbynism.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    Stocky said:

    Re: Angela Smith`s letter to the Independent Parliamentary Authority.

    She has realised that due to switching seats she will not be eligible for more taxpayer bunce should she fail to be re-elected. In her letter she complains that she will lose out by £22,000 tax free plus two months` pay.

    She has been an MP for over 14 years (current earnings £80, 000 per annum plus plus (with self employed advantages) and employed her husband as her assistant (at £40,000 per annum) yet in her letter she says “I will not be able to meet my mortgage payments and many other bills I am liable for”). She`s also crap at money management then!

    She was also embroiled in the expenses scandal - at one point voting to keep MP expenses secret.

    I hope that the other candidates in her new constituency are making merry over this. A gift to Graham Brady surely?

    Many MPs are not good with their personal finances. Why we entrust them with the nation's is a mystery.....
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Alanbrooke said: "she [Swinson] currently comes across as nanny whip who wants to tell us all how to lead our lives"

    Crikey, this is a poor look for a liberal to have!!
  • kle4 said:

    Head office getting in early I see. First quick action theyve taken.

    Its good theres been actual apologies not fake apologies, though I understand why some dont bother - a lot of people demand further action even if people apologise.
    Bridgen is an oaf, and represents the New Tory Party as it sadly now is. The apology isn't good enough, and neither is Rees-Mogg's. Rees-Mogg should resign.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    kle4 said:

    Head office getting in early I see. First quick action theyve taken.

    Its good theres been actual apologies not fake apologies, though I understand why some dont bother - a lot of people demand further action even if people apologise.
    Bridgen is an oaf, and represents the New Tory Party as it sadly now is. The apology isn't good enough, and neither is Rees-Mogg's. Rees-Mogg should resign.
    Im sure he;ll have sleepless nights now youve said that
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Danny:

    A common theme of prime ministerial memoirs is that there was so much more to the job than setting a direction and watching the machine follow it. They personally lead. They personally make judgments.

    To believe that stopping Brexit is a national emergency and that Boris Johnson is so off-putting that it justifies a Corbyn government is a rational decision. I won’t make it but some of my friends will and I respect that. But let no one vote pretending to themselves that a Corbyn government could never happen or that, if it did, it wouldn’t matter. It could and it would.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/fd17587c-ffe9-11e9-ac10-05df8e730a81

    True enough. It's another fantasy to think it will be as simple as just not getting BoJo and it'll be fine.

    I've never before been glad to be in a safe seat where my vote wont swing things in any way.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    There are plenty of reasons not to vote LibDem, but the fact that the leader is female is not one of them.

    But not a risk Labour has ben prepared to take, eh Nick?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    kle4 said:

    Early days of course, but so far the Lib Dems seem to be flunking the air war. They lack a positive message, while their attack lines seem contrived.

    It’s a crying shame because there are ample reasons to distrust Johnson, fear Corbyn, and to get excited about the economic bonanza that would follow the cancellation of Brexit.

    Yes, they've gotten attention but early signs are mixed at best.
    The focus on Swinson is probably the right thing to do, but they are articulating it in the wrong way.

    Swinson is not worth voting for because of “sexism”.

    Swinson is worth voting for because...?
  • Alistair said:

    For those keeping score and hat takes us to 8 states that voted Trump having now elected a Democratic governor.

    https://twitter.com/brycetache/status/1191928386383269888?s=20
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,498
    Banterman said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Some of us actually bother to make detailed reasoned post on here. Whilst some just keep regurgitating their vomit.
    Every time your coterie of death cultists celebrate the expulsion of another Conservative MP for failing to collude in chaos and the imposition of a policy that no one voted for, you reinforce the message that the Conservative party has become a narrow sect.

    And now, having spent years spitting venom at anyone who does not submit completely to your obsession, you ask for their votes.

    You might not see their problem. But they do.
    I see the problem but we have an election where the offer is before us. With all the cuteness of tactical voting we are nevertheless faced with Corbyn vs the Conservatives.

    The party has changed significantly but these people were always there albeit in the background. If they can convince that there are some sensible heads then 2017 Remain Conservatives might well remain 2019 Conservatives.

    Because as @MarqueeMark notes we are Conservatives, oh and also Jeremy Corbyn.
    Reject that false choice. It is not Corbyn vs Johnson. Outside Lab held seats it is perfectly safe to vote LD.
    It's really not. If Corbyn is to be held at bay the Tories need to win the Shires and small towns consistently. Lib Dems picking up seats increases the risk of the unacceptable. Even when Labour are not in the race for a particular seat they define it.
    Foxy’s a Lib voter with Labour sympathies.

    To the rest of us, it’s safe to vote Liberal Democrat in a LABOUR held seat.
    Unless it is a Tory target (and there are about 60 of them). Its the same in Scotland where I would vote for any Unionist party that had a chance of defeating the SNP, even Labour. As none of them do in my seat I can simply express my preference.
    I saw Nicola Sturgeon on TV the other night and was struck by how much she had aged since becoming FM. I dont thin the job is doing her health much good, Salmond seemed to take it all in his stride.
    When you see pictures of her without the political slap on, you can see it's a major effort to present the Nicola FM look. It must be extremely hard to sustain it over the years as she is of course getting older.
    Jesus Christ. What is it about Scottish female politicians that triggers the PB Tories? Ungallant and crass.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    The Conservatives will undoubtedly lose some Remainer votes. That's a given. But in terms of those aversion to Brexit. The LibDems are

    But I get the strong impression these Remain Tories are looking for a reason to stay with the party. Brexit doesn't define who they are politically. A campaign that says yes, we will get Brexit delivered, but look, these are the reasons beyond Brexit to vote for us is a campaign that can still have considerable traction with them.

    If you are looking for late movement in the polls in this election, it could come about from two directions: Brexit Party supporters realising that a vote for the Brexit Party kills Brexit; and previous Tories realising that, once we get beyond Brexit - and boy do they want us to get beyond Brexit - their best interests are still served by a Conservative government.

    “We hate you and despise you, you treacherous quislings, now vote for us” is unlikely to be a viable election slogan for the Conservatives.
    Some of us actually bother to make detailed reasoned post on here. Whilst some just keep regurgitating their vomit.
    Every time your coterie of death cultists celebrate the expulsion of another Conservative MP for failing to collude in chaos and the imposition of a policy that no one voted for, you reinforce the message that the Conservative party has become a narrow sect.

    And now, having spent years spitting venom at anyone who does not submit completely to your obsession, you ask for their votes.

    You might not see their problem. But they do.
    I see the problem but we have an election where the offer is before us. With all the cuteness of tactical voting we are nevertheless faced with Corbyn vs the Conservatives.

    The party has changed significantly but these people were always there albeit in the background. If they can convince that there are some sensible heads then 2017 Remain Conservatives might well remain 2019 Conservatives.

    Because as @MarqueeMark notes we are Conservatives, oh and also Jeremy Corbyn.
    Reject that false choice. It is not Corbyn vs Johnson. Outside Lab held seats it is perfectly safe to vote LD.
    In safe seats. But if you really want remain in most of the non labour seats you still vote labour if you go by the last vote. Do we think the LDs will successfully convince people they are better placed despite being third or worse in many seats?
    Yes, the Council, Euro votes and polls all support the LDs as the challengers.

    Mrs Foxy though is showing worrying signs of support for Labour's campaign. She likes the Zero Carbon stuff in particular.
  • kle4 said:

    Head office getting in early I see. First quick action theyve taken.

    Its good theres been actual apologies not fake apologies, though I understand why some dont bother - a lot of people demand further action even if people apologise.
    Bridgen is an oaf, and represents the New Tory Party as it sadly now is. The apology isn't good enough, and neither is Rees-Mogg's. Rees-Mogg should resign.
    Im sure he;ll have sleepless nights now youve said that
    Silly comment, Mr Alanbrooke, I doubt Mr. Rees-Mogg even has a computer, let alone reads PB. It would probably do him some good if he did
  • Steve has got Boris's head just a wee bit overscale there. Maybe that's the joke.

    https://twitter.com/Coldwar_Steve/status/1191852901171433474?s=20
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    I was worried about what Labour's plans might mean for me and my family, but since I am not an early twentieth century Russian peasant I think I will be ok.

    And not Jewish, obvs.

    So that one fell a bit flat.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    kle4 said:

    Head office getting in early I see. First quick action theyve taken.

    Its good theres been actual apologies not fake apologies, though I understand why some dont bother - a lot of people demand further action even if people apologise.
    Bridgen is an oaf, and represents the New Tory Party as it sadly now is. The apology isn't good enough, and neither is Rees-Mogg's. Rees-Mogg should resign.
    Yawn............
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Good morning and I would simply point out that remain voting Tories who voted Tory in 2017 soon after the Referendum are far less likely to defect to the Liberals than the Liberals on here think. For all the girl guide from Dunbartonshire says she wont support a Corbyn government, they will realise that installing LibDem MPs makes a Corbyn government more likely.

    If she is going to parade around the country for the next 5 weeks screeching at everyone like Violet Elizabeth, who is going to ensure she remains an MP? It would be somewhat ironic if she presides over an increase in Liberal MPs and loses her own seat. It would make Chris Patten's defeat in 1992 look less like a Greek tragedy.

    I'm not a fan of Swinson and thought her launch was astonishingly weak (I'm gonna be PM+we hate Brexit+we hate Corbyn, and er that's it), but can we skip the sexist derision ("girl guide", "screeching", "Violet Elizabeth")? There are plenty of reasons not to vote LibDem, but the fact that the leader is female is not one of them.
    Whilst I broadly agree @NickPalmer that we need to be more respectful and less pejorative, use of phrases such as “girl guide” to allude to Jo Swinson's junior/lack of experience are not necessarily sexist. Nor is “screeching” to denote her tone, although ”hectoring” might be better.

    We can be very quick to see sexism in colourful and descriptive phrases where sometimes it isn’t.

    Plus Ms Swinson is repeatedly making her gender an issue.

    I am with Nick Palmer on this. It IS sexist, plain as can be. If those comments were made in the work place it would be called out for what it is. Language often subtly reveals peoples' real approach and beliefs, just as Rees-Mogg showed himself up the other day.
    I an generally sceptical of policing our use of language out of fear of perceived sexism, but there are some, like hysterical, which I try to avoid as I think it's true they have been used in such a way or give that impression. The screeching one I fear is the same - i dont see Swinson as particularly screeching yet it gets used a lot.

    I'm not about to declare anyone who uses such terms as closet sexists, but given I do think Swindon gets disproportionate vitriol, personally I will be more cautious in language.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381

    TOPPING said:

    The Conservatives will undoubtedly lose some Remainer votes. That's a given. But in terms of those aversion to Brexit. The LibDems are

    But I get the strong impression these Remain Tories are looking for a reason to stay with the party. Brexit doesn't define who they are politically. A campaign that says yes, we will get Brexit delivered, but look, these are the reasons beyond Brexit to vote for us is a campaign that can still have considerable traction with them.

    If you are looking for late movement in the polls in this election, it could come about from two directions: Brexit Party supporters realising that a vote for the Brexit Party kills Brexit; and previous Tories realising that, once we get beyond Brexit - and boy do they want us to get beyond Brexit - their best interests are still served by a Conservative government.

    “We hate you and despise you, you treacherous quislings, now vote for us” is unlikely to be a viable election slogan for the Conservatives.
    Some of us actually bother to make detailed reasoned post on here. Whilst some just keep regurgitating their vomit.
    Every time your coterie of death cultists celebrate the expulsion of another Conservative MP for failing to collude in chaos and the imposition of a policy that no one voted for, you reinforce the message that the Conservative party has become a narrow sect.

    And now, having spent years spitting venom at anyone who does not submit completely to your obsession, you ask for their votes.

    You might not see their problem. But they do.
    I see the problem but we have an election where the offer is before us. With all the cuteness of tactical voting we are nevertheless faced with Corbyn vs the Conservatives.

    The party has changed significantly but these people were always there albeit in the background. If they can convince that there are some sensible heads then 2017 Remain Conservatives might well remain 2019 Conservatives.

    Because as @MarqueeMark notes we are Conservatives, oh and also Jeremy Corbyn.
    The current Conservative party is in no meaningful way conservative. It is reckless and has set itself in opposition to order, good governance and the rule of law. So what’s the appeal of it to you?
    It's preferable to the alternatives - from my point of view.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited November 2019
    The Tories will be pleased that they are holding over half of their 2017 Remainers vote and the LDs will be pleased they are picking up over a quarter of those Tory Remainers who are defecting.

    However that piechart is very bad news for Corbyn Labour, if it is to form a majority Government or even just get enough seats to form a minority government with the SNP then it needs to be picking up 2017 Tory Remain voters who should be a prime target for the party, the fact it is picking up just 3% of them, not even more than are voting Brexit Party now, is terrible news for Corbyn
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    For those keeping score and hat takes us to 8 states that voted Trump having now elected a Democratic governor.

    Do gubernatorial races correlate with POTUS ?

    Nevertheless positive for my generally pro Dem General betting positions (I think)
    kle4 said:

    In all seriousness media people are already joking about the tories having another shit campaign, they really need an early positive to knock such joking from developing into a trend.
    It's Kevin Schofield, Mr Daily Mirror.
    Hes not the only one whose noted they have had a bad start. The point is they need a win early on to stop the potential of the same narrative as last time emerging, whether that narrative would be fair or not.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Foxy said "In such a parliament, Lab could form a minority government and get support for individual Bill's, but without a formal arrangement. That is as far as it would go."

    In the scenario that the Tories win most seats but fail to get a majority (and can`t form any coalitions) is it possible that a Labour minority government can arise?

    I think that it is possible, in this scenario, for the Tories (as incumbents) to limp on as a minority government but I`m noit sure that Labour to claim to the Queen that they can do this without a coalition or C&S from other parties to command a majority.

    Maybe I`m wrong - can someone clarify this? Specifically, if the Tories win most seats can Labour take charge as a minority government with fewer MPs than theTories and with no agreements with other parties.

  • Jesus Christ. What is it about Scottish female politicians that triggers the PB Tories? Ungallant and crass.

    Don't worry, all the PB Tories that had conniptions at every chauvinist jibe aimed at Tessy will be along any minute.
  • OT some entertaining historical political gossip:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7653227/Society-diarist-KENNETH-ROSE-takes-ink-tipped-stiletto-political-class.html

    November 15, 1993
    William Waldegrave tells me that when he was Ted Heath’s Political Secretary, he would be rung up out of the blue by peppery colonels who would say [for instance]: ‘What we want as Prime Minister is not an old queer like Heath, but a fine upstanding gentleman like Jeremy Thorpe.’ At that very moment, William had on his desk the Home Office files on Jeremy’s private life.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,498

    So we now know the pattern of the campaign.

    James Cleverley pops up on the BBC every morning to apologise for the actions of his colleagues the previous day.

    Cleverley is the embodiment of the counter argument to the theory of nominative determinism.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    kle4 said:

    Head office getting in early I see. First quick action theyve taken.

    Its good theres been actual apologies not fake apologies, though I understand why some dont bother - a lot of people demand further action even if people apologise.
    Bridgen is an oaf, and represents the New Tory Party as it sadly now is. The apology isn't good enough, and neither is Rees-Mogg's. Rees-Mogg should resign.
    Im sure he;ll have sleepless nights now youve said that
    Silly comment, Mr Alanbrooke, I doubt Mr. Rees-Mogg even has a computer, let alone reads PB. It would probably do him some good if he did
    JRM’s computer of choice is the Babbage Engine
  • kle4 said:

    Head office getting in early I see. First quick action theyve taken.

    Its good theres been actual apologies not fake apologies, though I understand why some dont bother - a lot of people demand further action even if people apologise.
    Bridgen is an oaf, and represents the New Tory Party as it sadly now is. The apology isn't good enough, and neither is Rees-Mogg's. Rees-Mogg should resign.
    Yawn............
    No doubt you have pictures of both of them pinned to your bedroom wall
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    egg said:

    Cleverleys struggles on radio 4 this morning.

    Remember project fear that didn’t work. Tory’s are turning their attack on Labour’s Brexit policy into Project Fake, and shooting their own feet off.

    Cleverly seems quite funny and personable on Twitter but hes seemed to struggle in his current role
  • Good morning and I would simply point out that remain voting Tories who voted Tory in 2017 soon after the Referendum are far less likely to defect to the Liberals than the Liberals on here think. For all the girl guide from Dunbartonshire says she wont support a Corbyn government, they will realise that installing LibDem MPs makes a Corbyn government more likely.

    If she is going to parade around the country for the next 5 weeks screeching at everyone like Violet Elizabeth, who is going to ensure she remains an MP? It would be somewhat ironic if she presides over an increase in Liberal MPs and loses her own seat. It would make Chris Patten's defeat in 1992 look less like a Greek tragedy.

    I'm not a fan of Swinson and thought her launch was astonishingly weak (I'm gonna be PM+we hate Brexit+we hate Corbyn, and er that's it), but can we skip the sexist derision ("girl guide", "screeching", "Violet Elizabeth")? There are plenty of reasons not to vote LibDem, but the fact that the leader is female is not one of them.
    Whilst I broadly agree @NickPalmer that we need to be more respectful and less pejorative, use of phrases such as “girl guide” to allude to Jo Swinson's junior/lack of experience are not necessarily sexist. Nor is “screeching” to denote her tone, although ”hectoring” might be better.

    We can be very quick to see sexism in colourful and descriptive phrases where sometimes it isn’t.

    Plus Ms Swinson is repeatedly making her gender an issue.

    I am with Nick Palmer on this. It IS sexist, plain as can be. If those comments were made in the work place it would be called out for what it is. Language often subtly reveals peoples' real approach and beliefs, just as Rees-Mogg showed himself up the other day.
    Utter and total garbage. Jo Swinson is a light weight. Margaret Thatcher, Barbara Castle, Betty Boothroyd, Harriet Harmen, Amber Rudd, Winnie Ewing and Nicola Sturgeon to name but a few are or were competent, serious and successful female politicians. Too many low grade individuals hide behind faux outrage and they have to make their gender an issue to his their lack of ability.

    My late mother who at one time in the 1980s was the most senior woman in the construction industry in Scotland had absolutely no time for feminism and feminists. She considered them women who conceded they were not equal to their male colleagues in the same profession etc and she personally was too busy smashing glass ceilings to waste her time with them. She much preferred the company of men. On a personal level she got on exceptionally well with both Margaret Thatcher and Winnie Ewing, both of whom she encountered in her professional career.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited November 2019
    Martin_Kinsella said:

    "Lib Dems Dogging !!!!!

    The mind boggles."

    Oops - apologies - that is the mother of all typos. Didn`t mean to cast any aspertions on Swinson.
  • Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    The Conservatives will undoubtedly lose some Remainer votes. That's a given. But in terms of those aversion to Brexit. The LibDems are

    But I get the strong impression these Remain Tories are looking for a reason to stay with the party. Brexit doesn't define who they are politically. A campaign that says yes, we will get Brexit delivered, but look, these are the reasons beyond Brexit to vote for us is a campaign that can still have considerable traction with them.

    If you are looking for late movement in the polls in this election, it could come about from two directions: Brexit Party supporters realising that a vote for the Brexit Party kills Brexit; and previous Tories realising that, once we get beyond Brexit - and boy do they want us to get beyond Brexit - their best interests are still served by a Conservative government.

    “We hate you and despise you, you treacherous quislings, now vote for us” is unlikely to be a viable election slogan for the Conservatives.
    Some of us actually bother to make detailed reasoned post on here. Whilst some just keep regurgitating their vomit.
    Every time your coterie of death cultists celebrate the expulsion of another Conservative MP for failing to collude in chaos and the imposition of a policy that no one voted for, you reinforce the message that the Conservative party has become a narrow sect.

    And now, having spent years spitting venom at anyone who does not submit completely to your obsession, you ask for their votes.

    You might not see their problem. But they do.
    I see the problem but we have an election where the offer is before us. With all the cuteness of tactical voting we are nevertheless faced with Corbyn vs the Conservatives.

    The party has changed significantly but these people were always there albeit in the background. If they can convince that there are some sensible heads then 2017 Remain Conservatives might well remain 2019 Conservatives.

    Because as @MarqueeMark notes we are Conservatives, oh and also Jeremy Corbyn.
    The current Conservative party is in no meaningful way conservative. It is reckless and has set itself in opposition to order, good governance and the rule of law. So what’s the appeal of it to you?
    It's preferable to the alternatives - from my point of view.
    To be fair that is probably a lot of peoples' calculation when voting under our broken system
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    It didnt seem to hurt them with the target audience, but I hope we get a repeat of labour's 'only this old white man can unlock your potential, BAME voters' from last time, that provoked some amusement.
  • kle4 said:

    Head office getting in early I see. First quick action theyve taken.

    Its good theres been actual apologies not fake apologies, though I understand why some dont bother - a lot of people demand further action even if people apologise.
    Bridgen is an oaf, and represents the New Tory Party as it sadly now is. The apology isn't good enough, and neither is Rees-Mogg's. Rees-Mogg should resign.
    Im sure he;ll have sleepless nights now youve said that
    Silly comment, Mr Alanbrooke, I doubt Mr. Rees-Mogg even has a computer, let alone reads PB. It would probably do him some good if he did
    JRM’s computer of choice is the Babbage Engine
    We'll have none of that new fangled nonsense.

    https://youtu.be/RyBsOe6E_aI
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Stocky said:

    Re: Angela Smith`s letter to the Independent Parliamentary Authority.

    She has realised that due to switching seats she will not be eligible for more taxpayer bunce should she fail to be re-elected. In her letter she complains that she will lose out by £22,000 tax free plus two months` pay.

    She has been an MP for over 14 years (current earnings £80, 000 per annum plus plus (with self employed advantages) and employed her husband as her assistant (at £40,000 per annum) yet in her letter she says “I will not be able to meet my mortgage payments and many other bills I am liable for”). She`s also crap at money management then!

    She was also embroiled in the expenses scandal - at one point voting to keep MP expenses secret.

    I hope that the other candidates in her new constituency are making merry over this. A gift to Graham Brady surely?

    She really said that?!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,498


    Jesus Christ. What is it about Scottish female politicians that triggers the PB Tories? Ungallant and crass.

    Don't worry, all the PB Tories that had conniptions at every chauvinist jibe aimed at Tessy will be along any minute.
    Ha. Indubitably.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    30% going LD seems high. I suspect as polling day approaches a chunk of that will go back to the tories as the choice becomes a clearer Corbyn or Johnson question.with Johnson's deal he is now offering a similar brexit to what May was talking about in 2017 and if it was enough for these people to vote tory then it will be now. Of course some will be put off by the character of Johnson, but that won't be the decider for most people.

    The LDs need some sort of cleggmania breakthrough at this point or else they will suffer the familiar FPTP squeeze effect from both sides. They will still increase their seats and votes from 2017 but not by enough.

    So far the campaign hasn't felt very much about Brexit. It's still in the Phoney War stage so that could change but it could be a sign that this won't really be a brexit election after all.

    I can only comment from a personal view, and anecdotally a few family and friends. I chickened out of voting LD last time, even though I was strongly tempted. However, the Tory party is now a very different beast from then, and very very different to the party that I used to be an activist for. I will be voting LD on this occasion, and I won't be changing my mind. I hope for another hung parliament, with both the main parties losing enough support for them both to consider more moderate approaches to politics.

    A vote for the LDs is a vote against extremism.
    On Brexit we have

    BXP - no deal
    Con - deal
    Lab - different deal
    LD - revoke

    I put it to you that a vote for the Lib Dems (or BXP) is a vote for extremists
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    "Reject that false choice. It is not Corbyn vs Johnson. Outside Lab held seats it is perfectly safe to vote LD."

    I can`t help thinking that the LDs are dogging a hole for themselves by promising that they would never back Corbyn to become PM in any circumstances.

    If the Tories fail to get a majority and a Lab/LD/SNP coalition or C&S would be the only way to enable a 2nd referendum then LDs will come under stong pressure to recant on their promise. Tuition fees?

    Lib Dems Dogging !!!!!

    The mind boggles.
    I've never made that connection. I'd assumed it was UKIP supporters who are using their newly found free time to get back to that sort of thing.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    HYUFD said:

    The Tories will be pleased that they are holding over half of their 2017 Remainers vote and the LDs will be pleased they are picking up over a quarter of those Tory Remainers who are defecting.

    However that piechart is very bad news for Corbyn Labour, if it is to form a majority Government or even just get enough seats to form a minority government with the SNP then it needs to be picking up 2017 Tory Remain voters who should be a prime target for the party, the fact it is picking up just 3% of them, not even more than are voting Brexit Party now, is terrible news for Corbyn

    Unless Tory Remain voters are willing to back Labour, it's hard to see where Labour's path to victory is.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Charles said:

    30% going LD seems high. I suspect as polling day approaches a chunk of that will go back to the tories as the choice becomes a clearer Corbyn or Johnson question.with Johnson's deal he is now offering a similar brexit to what May was talking about in 2017 and if it was enough for these people to vote tory then it will be now. Of course some will be put off by the character of Johnson, but that won't be the decider for most people.

    The LDs need some sort of cleggmania breakthrough at this point or else they will suffer the familiar FPTP squeeze effect from both sides. They will still increase their seats and votes from 2017 but not by enough.

    So far the campaign hasn't felt very much about Brexit. It's still in the Phoney War stage so that could change but it could be a sign that this won't really be a brexit election after all.

    I can only comment from a personal view, and anecdotally a few family and friends. I chickened out of voting LD last time, even though I was strongly tempted. However, the Tory party is now a very different beast from then, and very very different to the party that I used to be an activist for. I will be voting LD on this occasion, and I won't be changing my mind. I hope for another hung parliament, with both the main parties losing enough support for them both to consider more moderate approaches to politics.

    A vote for the LDs is a vote against extremism.
    On Brexit we have

    BXP - no deal
    Con - deal
    Lab - different deal
    LD - revoke

    I put it to you that a vote for the Lib Dems (or BXP) is a vote for extremists
    Technically, in terms of political offering. Not all extreme positions are equally extreme or awful, though I suspect people will not accept that on the grounds they often mean extreme when what they mean is bad .
  • Charles said:

    30% going LD seems high. I suspect as polling day approaches a chunk of that will go back to the tories as the choice becomes a clearer Corbyn or Johnson question.with Johnson's deal he is now offering a similar brexit to what May was talking about in 2017 and if it was enough for these people to vote tory then it will be now. Of course some will be put off by the character of Johnson, but that won't be the decider for most people.

    The LDs need some sort of cleggmania breakthrough at this point or else they will suffer the familiar FPTP squeeze effect from both sides. They will still increase their seats and votes from 2017 but not by enough.

    So far the campaign hasn't felt very much about Brexit. It's still in the Phoney War stage so that could change but it could be a sign that this won't really be a brexit election after all.

    I can only comment from a personal view, and anecdotally a few family and friends. I chickened out of voting LD last time, even though I was strongly tempted. However, the Tory party is now a very different beast from then, and very very different to the party that I used to be an activist for. I will be voting LD on this occasion, and I won't be changing my mind. I hope for another hung parliament, with both the main parties losing enough support for them both to consider more moderate approaches to politics.

    A vote for the LDs is a vote against extremism.
    On Brexit we have

    BXP - no deal
    Con - deal
    Lab - different deal
    LD - revoke

    I put it to you that a vote for the Lib Dems (or BXP) is a vote for extremists
    Lol! Indeed, Charles, extreme in their moderation. :)
  • Charles said:

    30% going LD seems high. I suspect as polling day approaches a chunk of that will go back to the tories as the choice becomes a clearer Corbyn or Johnson question.with Johnson's deal he is now offering a similar brexit to what May was talking about in 2017 and if it was enough for these people to vote tory then it will be now. Of course some will be put off by the character of Johnson, but that won't be the decider for most people.

    The LDs need some sort of cleggmania breakthrough at this point or else they will suffer the familiar FPTP squeeze effect from both sides. They will still increase their seats and votes from 2017 but not by enough.

    So far the campaign hasn't felt very much about Brexit. It's still in the Phoney War stage so that could change but it could be a sign that this won't really be a brexit election after all.

    I can only comment from a personal view, and anecdotally a few family and friends. I chickened out of voting LD last time, even though I was strongly tempted. However, the Tory party is now a very different beast from then, and very very different to the party that I used to be an activist for. I will be voting LD on this occasion, and I won't be changing my mind. I hope for another hung parliament, with both the main parties losing enough support for them both to consider more moderate approaches to politics.

    A vote for the LDs is a vote against extremism.
    On Brexit we have

    BXP - no deal
    Con - deal
    Lab - different deal
    LD - revoke

    I put it to you that a vote for the Lib Dems (or BXP) is a vote for extremists
    Only in your view. I am not particularly supportive of revoke as a policy, but it is simply the status quo, so no, not extremist at all. To suggest so is just political chicanery, and not every element of politics is dictated by Brexit.
  • Charles said:

    30% going LD seems high. I suspect as polling day approaches a chunk of that will go back to the tories as the choice becomes a clearer Corbyn or Johnson question.with Johnson's deal he is now offering a similar brexit to what May was talking about in 2017 and if it was enough for these people to vote tory then it will be now. Of course some will be put off by the character of Johnson, but that won't be the decider for most people.

    The LDs need some sort of cleggmania breakthrough at this point or else they will suffer the familiar FPTP squeeze effect from both sides. They will still increase their seats and votes from 2017 but not by enough.

    So far the campaign hasn't felt very much about Brexit. It's still in the Phoney War stage so that could change but it could be a sign that this won't really be a brexit election after all.

    I can only comment from a personal view, and anecdotally a few family and friends. I chickened out of voting LD last time, even though I was strongly tempted. However, the Tory party is now a very different beast from then, and very very different to the party that I used to be an activist for. I will be voting LD on this occasion, and I won't be changing my mind. I hope for another hung parliament, with both the main parties losing enough support for them both to consider more moderate approaches to politics.

    A vote for the LDs is a vote against extremism.
    On Brexit we have

    BXP - no deal
    Con - deal
    Lab - different deal
    LD - revoke

    I put it to you that a vote for the Lib Dems (or BXP) is a vote for extremists
    How is revoke an extremist view? It is a vote for the status quo. I am a Tory Remainer in a Tory / SNP seat. I will never vote Tory with Boris in charge. I may vote Tory for Scottish and council seats. I will probably stay at home.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    kle4 said:

    egg said:

    Cleverleys struggles on radio 4 this morning.

    Remember project fear that didn’t work. Tory’s are turning their attack on Labour’s Brexit policy into Project Fake, and shooting their own feet off.

    Cleverly seems quite funny and personable on Twitter but hes seemed to struggle in his current role
    Can we have an unbiased opinion pls
  • Cleverly gone missing on Sky
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited November 2019
    kle4 said: "She really said that?!"

    Yes - you can read the whole letter below:

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/angela-smith-exit-payment
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    The Conservatives will undoubtedly lose some Remainer votes. That's a given. But in terms of those aversion to Brexit. The LibDems are

    But I get the strong impression these Remain Tories are looking for a reason to stay with the party. Brexit doesn't define who they are politically. A campaign that says yes, we will get Brexit delivered, but look, these are the reasons beyond Brexit to vote for us is a campaign that can still have considerable traction with them.

    If you are looking for late movement in the polls in this election, it could come about from two directions: Brexit Party supporters realising that a vote for the Brexit Party kills Brexit; and previous Tories realising that, once we get beyond Brexit - and boy do they want us to get beyond Brexit - their best interests are still served by a Conservative government.

    “We hate you and despise you, you treacherous quislings, now vote for us” is unlikely to be a viable election slogan for the Conservatives.
    Some of us actually bother to make detailed reasoned post on here. Whilst some just keep regurgitating their vomit.
    Every time your coterie of death cultists celebrate the expulsion of another Conservative MP for failing to collude in chaos and the imposition of a policy that no one voted for, you reinforce the message that the Conservative party has become a narrow sect.

    And now, having spent years spitting venom at anyone who does not submit completely to your obsession, you ask for their votes.

    You might not see their problem. But they do.
    I see the problem but we have an election where the offer is before us. With all the cuteness of tactical voting we are nevertheless faced with Corbyn vs the Conservatives.

    The party has changed significantly but these n 2019 Conservatives.

    Because as @MarqueeMark notes we are Conservatives, oh and also Jeremy Corbyn.
    Reject that false choice. It is not Corbyn vs Johnson. Outside Lab held seats it is perfectly safe to vote LD.
    In safe seats. But if you really y seats?
    Yes, the Council, Euro votes and polls all support the LDs as the challengers.

    Mrs Foxy though is showing worrying signs of support for Labour's campaign. She likes the Zero Carbon stuff in particular.
    The question wasnt if they are the challengers - there are some grounds to think that- but whether theyd convince people of that. Sounds from mrs foxy that theyve a way to go on that.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Kay burley laying into a vacant chair when Cleverly has refused to be interviewed even though he is only 15ft away?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    The Conservatives will undoubtedly lose some Remainer votes. That's a given. But in terms of those aversion to Brexit. The LibDems are

    But I get the strong impression these Remain Tories are looking for a reason to stay with the party. Brexit doesn't define who they are politically. A campaign that says yes, we will get Brexit delivered, but look, these are the reasons beyond Brexit to vote for us is a campaign that can still have considerable traction with them.

    If you are looking for late movement in the polls in this election, it could come about from two directions: Brexit Party supporters realising that a vote for the Brexit Party kills Brexit; and previous Tories realising that, once we get beyond Brexit - and boy do they want us to get beyond Brexit - their best interests are still served by a Conservative government.

    “We hate you and despise you, you treacherous quislings, now vote for us” is unlikely to be a viable election slogan for the Conservatives.
    Some of us actually bother to make detailed reasoned post on here. Whilst some just keep regurgitating their vomit.
    Every time your coterie of death cultists celebrate the expulsion of another Conservative MP for failing to collude in chaos and the imposition of a policy that no one voted for, you reinforce the message that the Conservative party has become a narrow sect.

    And now, having spent years spitting venom at anyone who does not submit completely to your obsession, you ask for their votes.

    You might not see their problem. But they do.
    I see the problem but we have an election where the offer is before us. With all the cuteness of tactical voting we are nevertheless faced with Corbyn vs the Conservatives.

    The party has changed significantly but these people were always there albeit in the background. If they can convince that there are some sensible heads then 2017 Remain Conservatives might well remain 2019 Conservatives.

    Because as @MarqueeMark notes we are Conservatives, oh and also Jeremy Corbyn.
    Reject that false choice. It is not Corbyn vs Johnson. Outside Lab held seats it is perfectly safe to vote LD.
    If the intention is to find the quickest way to condemn the LibDems to an irrelevant and diminishing future, yes I agree with you.

    I would rather the LibDems became a significant force, and to do so they need votes from all directions and to stop lending votes to other parties. Tactical voting kills the junior partner(s).
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    kle4 said:

    Stocky said:

    Re: Angela Smith`s letter to the Independent Parliamentary Authority.

    She has realised that due to switching seats she will not be eligible for more taxpayer bunce should she fail to be re-elected. In her letter she complains that she will lose out by £22,000 tax free plus two months` pay.

    She has been an MP for over 14 years (current earnings £80, 000 per annum plus plus (with self employed advantages) and employed her husband as her assistant (at £40,000 per annum) yet in her letter she says “I will not be able to meet my mortgage payments and many other bills I am liable for”). She`s also crap at money management then!

    She was also embroiled in the expenses scandal - at one point voting to keep MP expenses secret.

    I hope that the other candidates in her new constituency are making merry over this. A gift to Graham Brady surely?

    She really said that?!
    She also said:

    "Given I had no option but to move to another party and then no option but to move to a vacant candidacy, I honestly consider I am being discriminated against."
  • Stocky said:

    Martin_Kinsella said:

    "Lib Dems Dogging !!!!!

    The mind boggles."

    Oops - apologies - that is the mother of all typos. Didn`t mean to cast any aspertions on Swinson.

    Aspersions?! You couldn't be doing more to enhance her appeal!
  • Mr. Brooke, that does neglect the rise of UKIP, which many have seemingly forgotten.

    Also the lack of a referendum on Lisbon. Not to mention the fact the political class moved increasingly towards integration with the EU (as proven by the difficulty of extracting ourselves from it) without any consultation with the electorate.

    The problem wasn't holding the referendum. It was not holding the promised referendum on Lisbon. We would've rejected it, perhaps by a landslide. Instead, MPs decided things like keeping their promises and consulting the electorate were optional extras.

    If the political class hadn't gravitated towards EU integration, away from common ground with their own people, or if they had sought public assent for such action, we would be in much better shape.

    Now, regardless of what happens, there's going to be quite a difficult time ahead, even if we had competent and good-willed people in charge. (But the choice is Johnson or Corbyn, Dumb or Dumber).
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    There are plenty of reasons not to vote LibDem, but the fact that the leader is female is not one of them.

    But not a risk Labour has ben prepared to take, eh Nick?
    Now Nick Herbert isn't standing I can vote LD with a clear conscience.
  • nichomar said:

    Kay burley laying into a vacant chair when Cleverly has refused to be interviewed even though he is only 15ft away?

    He was stupid but her reaction is way over the top
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    There are plenty of reasons not to vote LibDem, but the fact that the leader is female is not one of them.

    But not a risk Labour has ben prepared to take, eh Nick?
    Now Nick Herbert isn't standing I can vote LD with a clear conscience.
    Nick Herbert not standing? That's a shame. I liked him.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722
    kle4 said:

    egg said:

    Cleverleys struggles on radio 4 this morning.

    Remember project fear that didn’t work. Tory’s are turning their attack on Labour’s Brexit policy into Project Fake, and shooting their own feet off.

    Cleverly seems quite funny and personable on Twitter but hes seemed to struggle in his current role
    This election is going to expose the media toxicity and general uselessness of the front benches quite mercilessly. Nearly all the good media performers are now on the backbenches.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    Stocky said:

    Re: Angela Smith`s letter to the Independent Parliamentary Authority.

    She has realised that due to switching seats she will not be eligible for more taxpayer bunce should she fail to be re-elected. In her letter she complains that she will lose out by £22,000 tax free plus two months` pay.

    She has been an MP for over 14 years (current earnings £80, 000 per annum plus plus (with self employed advantages) and employed her husband as her assistant (at £40,000 per annum) yet in her letter she says “I will not be able to meet my mortgage payments and many other bills I am liable for”). She`s also crap at money management then!

    She was also embroiled in the expenses scandal - at one point voting to keep MP expenses secret.

    I hope that the other candidates in her new constituency are making merry over this. A gift to Graham Brady surely?

    She really said that?!
    She also said:

    "Given I had no option but to move to another party and then no option but to move to a vacant candidacy, I honestly consider I am being discriminated against."
    No option. I see she is very much a politician, employing the tactic of of pretending they had no choice when they did, the choices were just hard .
  • @NorthCadbol: Clearly got you triggered there Sid. Whether she is a "lightweight" or not is debateable, but the language used about Swinson is sexist in the modern context, but maybe not the time period of your mummy. Shame you can't see that.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited November 2019
    Foxy said:
    "Reject that false choice. It is not Corbyn vs Johnson. Outside Lab held seats it is perfectly safe to vote LD."

    I`m not sure what you mean by the last sentence. You seem to be implying that LibDem supporters hold a preference for Labour in government over the Conservatives. Maybe I misunderstood. I`m a LibDem voter and I`d take the CP over Lab any day and I know many liberals like me. Orange Book liberalism still alive and well. Apologies if I misunderstood your point.
  • Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    egg said:

    Cleverleys struggles on radio 4 this morning.

    Remember project fear that didn’t work. Tory’s are turning their attack on Labour’s Brexit policy into Project Fake, and shooting their own feet off.

    Cleverly seems quite funny and personable on Twitter but hes seemed to struggle in his current role
    This election is going to expose the media toxicity and general uselessness of the front benches quite mercilessly. Nearly all the good media performers are now on the backbenches.
    I actually agree with that
  • kle4 said:

    egg said:

    Cleverleys struggles on radio 4 this morning.

    Remember project fear that didn’t work. Tory’s are turning their attack on Labour’s Brexit policy into Project Fake, and shooting their own feet off.

    Cleverly seems quite funny and personable on Twitter but hes seemed to struggle in his current role
    Robinson gave him a rough time alright, but the poor sod had a really difficult brief there. Cleverley may be a grade A shit but he does his job well and the fact that even he was struggling is an indication of how wobbly a day the Tories had yesterday.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    30% going LD seems high. I suspect as polling day approaches a chunk of that will go back to the tories as the choice becomes a clearer Corbyn or Johnson question.with Johnson's deal he is now offering a similar brexit to what May was talking about in 2017 and if it was enough for these people to vote tory then it will be now. Of course some will be put off by the character of Johnson, but that won't be the decider for most people.

    The LDs need some sort of cleggmania breakthrough at this point or else they will suffer the familiar FPTP squeeze effect from both sides. They will still increase their seats and votes from 2017 but not by enough.

    So far the campaign hasn't felt very much about Brexit. It's still in the Phoney War stage so that could change but it could be a sign that this won't really be a brexit election after all.

    I can only comment from a personal view, and anecdotally a few family and friends. I chickened out of voting LD last time, even though I was strongly tempted. However, the Tory party is now a very different beast from then, and very very different to the party that I used to be an activist for. I will be voting LD on this occasion, and I won't be changing my mind. I hope for another hung parliament, with both the main parties losing enough support for them both to consider more moderate approaches to politics.

    A vote for the LDs is a vote against extremism.
    On Brexit we have

    BXP - no deal
    Con - deal
    Lab - different deal
    LD - revoke

    I put it to you that a vote for the Lib Dems (or BXP) is a vote for extremists
    How is revoke an extremist view? It is a vote for the status quo. I am a Tory Remainer in a Tory / SNP seat. I will never vote Tory with Boris in charge. I may vote Tory for Scottish and council seats. I will probably stay at home.
    Revoke without a referendum is absolutely an extreme position.

    It says to all the people who voted in the referendum because they thought it mattered that their views are utterly irrelevant and that they should run along and let Jo and the other grown ups take care of things.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    Foxy said:

    It does look as if Trump is good at getting out the vote for the Dems:

    https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1191894324025405441?s=19

    President Warren incoming...

    If the Democrats nominate Warren that guarantees Kentucky goes back to Trump and the GOP again
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    kle4 said:

    egg said:

    Cleverleys struggles on radio 4 this morning.

    Remember project fear that didn’t work. Tory’s are turning their attack on Labour’s Brexit policy into Project Fake, and shooting their own feet off.

    Cleverly seems quite funny and personable on Twitter but hes seemed to struggle in his current role
    Can we have an unbiased opinion pls
    Eh? What are you on about, everyone has biases. I've not seen this morning but hes not had the greatest set of media performances since becoming chairman. Until Abbot or Burgon get rolled out we wont have Labour figures to criticise (hes definitely better than them though).
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Mr. Brooke, that does neglect the rise of UKIP, which many have seemingly forgotten.

    Also the lack of a referendum on Lisbon. Not to mention the fact the political class moved increasingly towards integration with the EU (as proven by the difficulty of extracting ourselves from it) without any consultation with the electorate.

    The problem wasn't holding the referendum. It was not holding the promised referendum on Lisbon. We would've rejected it, perhaps by a landslide. Instead, MPs decided things like keeping their promises and consulting the electorate were optional extras.

    If the political class hadn't gravitated towards EU integration, away from common ground with their own people, or if they had sought public assent for such action, we would be in much better shape.

    Now, regardless of what happens, there's going to be quite a difficult time ahead, even if we had competent and good-willed people in charge. (But the choice is Johnson or Corbyn, Dumb or Dumber).

    fraid so Mr D, but as often happens society moves on and a new consensus emerges. The last time we had such an election was 1979 which replaced the 1945 consensus. This election is maybe the one to break the old mould and allow a new model to emerge. The country can chose the status quo ( LDs), radical socialism ( Lab) or splendid isolation (Con).

    All bets are off.
  • Charles said:

    Charles said:

    30% going LD seems high. I suspect as polling day approaches a chunk of that will go back to the tories as the choice becomes a clearer Corbyn or Johnson question.with Johnson's deal he is now offering a similar brexit to what May was talking about in 2017 and if it was enough for these people to vote tory then it will be now. Of course some will be put off by the character of Johnson, but that won't be the decider for most people.

    The LDs need some sort of cleggmania breakthrough at this point or else they will suffer the familiar FPTP squeeze effect from both sides. They will still increase their seats and votes from 2017 but not by enough.

    So far the campaign hasn't felt very much about Brexit. It's still in the Phoney War stage so that could change but it could be a sign that this won't really be a brexit election after all.

    I can only comment from a personal view, and anecdotally a few family and friends. I chickened out of voting LD last time, even though I was strongly tempted. However, the Tory party is now a very different beast from then, and very very different to the party that I used to be an activist for. I will be voting LD on this occasion, and I won't be changing my mind. I hope for another hung parliament, with both the main parties losing enough support for them both to consider more moderate approaches to politics.

    A vote for the LDs is a vote against extremism.
    On Brexit we have

    BXP - no deal
    Con - deal
    Lab - different deal
    LD - revoke

    I put it to you that a vote for the Lib Dems (or BXP) is a vote for extremists
    How is revoke an extremist view? It is a vote for the status quo. I am a Tory Remainer in a Tory / SNP seat. I will never vote Tory with Boris in charge. I may vote Tory for Scottish and council seats. I will probably stay at home.
    Revoke without a referendum is absolutely an extreme position.

    It says to all the people who voted in the referendum because they thought it mattered that their views are utterly irrelevant and that they should run along and let Jo and the other grown ups take care of things.
    If Jo Swinson wins a majority then Revoke will be the Will Of The People, and it would be undemocratic of you to protest. Is that how this thing works?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited November 2019
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Tories will be pleased that they are holding over half of their 2017 Remainers vote and the LDs will be pleased they are picking up over a quarter of those Tory Remainers who are defecting.

    However that piechart is very bad news for Corbyn Labour, if it is to form a majority Government or even just get enough seats to form a minority government with the SNP then it needs to be picking up 2017 Tory Remain voters who should be a prime target for the party, the fact it is picking up just 3% of them, not even more than are voting Brexit Party now, is terrible news for Corbyn

    Unless Tory Remain voters are willing to back Labour, it's hard to see where Labour's path to victory is.
    With the LDs vote up on 2017 not down and the Brexit Party polling better than UKIP indeed, there are not enough Green voters to make many gains for Labour
  • Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Tories will be pleased that they are holding over half of their 2017 Remainers vote and the LDs will be pleased they are picking up over a quarter of those Tory Remainers who are defecting.

    However that piechart is very bad news for Corbyn Labour, if it is to form a majority Government or even just get enough seats to form a minority government with the SNP then it needs to be picking up 2017 Tory Remain voters who should be a prime target for the party, the fact it is picking up just 3% of them, not even more than are voting Brexit Party now, is terrible news for Corbyn

    Unless Tory Remain voters are willing to back Labour, it's hard to see where Labour's path to victory is.
    Good to see HYUFD has reverted to his Comical Ali persona. I do wonder whetehr there are two HYUFDs at CCO. One who is a spotty Boris fanboy and the other who does actually do a bit of useful analysis (though still heavily biased)
  • I wonder how many votes Grieve, Soubry etc will get in their constituencies? Can't see any of them coming even close to victory. I'd guess even those constituents who agree with them probably wouldn't vote for them as it would just be prolonging the agony.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    egg said:

    Cleverleys struggles on radio 4 this morning.

    Remember project fear that didn’t work. Tory’s are turning their attack on Labour’s Brexit policy into Project Fake, and shooting their own feet off.

    Cleverly seems quite funny and personable on Twitter but hes seemed to struggle in his current role
    This election is going to expose the media toxicity and general uselessness of the front benches quite mercilessly. Nearly all the good media performers are now on the backbenches.
    I actually agree with that
    What just happened?

    Cleverly got a text from Cummings and said it’s not working? Don’t go the 15 feet to the sky chair for another vote losing disaster trying to defend Project Fake?

    If he’s shy going out in front the lights, I don’t think Kay’s art of persuasion is going to work on him. She went ballistic.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    egg said:

    Cleverleys struggles on radio 4 this morning.

    Remember project fear that didn’t work. Tory’s are turning their attack on Labour’s Brexit policy into Project Fake, and shooting their own feet off.

    Cleverly seems quite funny and personable on Twitter but hes seemed to struggle in his current role
    This election is going to expose the media toxicity and general uselessness of the front benches quite mercilessly. Nearly all the good media performers are now on the backbenches.
    Its a sad day when the nation has run out of experienced liars and the electorate is forced to listen to politicans who say what they think :smiley:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Charles said:

    30% going LD seems high. I suspect as polling day approaches a chunk of that will go back to the tories as the choice becomes a clearer Corbyn or Johnson question.with Johnson's deal he is now offering a similar brexit to what May was talking about in 2017 and if it was enough for these people to vote tory then it will be now. Of course some will be put off by the character of Johnson, but that won't be the decider for most people.

    The LDs need some sort of cleggmania breakthrough at this point or else they will suffer the familiar FPTP squeeze effect from both sides. They will still increase their seats and votes from 2017 but not by enough.

    So far the campaign hasn't felt very much about Brexit. It's still in the Phoney War stage so that could change but it could be a sign that this won't really be a brexit election after all.

    I can only comment from a personal view, and anecdotally a few family and friends. I chickened out of voting LD last time, even though I was strongly tempted. However, the Tory party is now a very different beast from then, and very very different to the party that I used to be an activist for. I will be voting LD on this occasion, and I won't be changing my mind. I hope for another hung parliament, with both the main parties losing enough support for them both to consider more moderate approaches to politics.

    A vote for the LDs is a vote against extremism.
    On Brexit we have

    BXP - no deal
    Con - deal
    Lab - different deal
    LD - revoke

    I put it to you that a vote for the Lib Dems (or BXP) is a vote for extremists
    How is revoke an extremist view? It is a vote for the status quo. I am a Tory Remainer in a Tory / SNP seat. I will never vote Tory with Boris in charge. I may vote Tory for Scottish and council seats. I will probably stay at home.
    He has definitely triggered people with his comment. It remains technically true despite the outrage, as it is a policy on the extreme end of the ones on offer from everyone else

    I dont know why people get so worked up by that - not all politically extreme positions are equally extreme, and some mainstream positions (so not extreme) are extreme in effect.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited November 2019
    On topic: Speaking as one of those Mike is talking about, I literally don't know. For the first time since 1964 (when I was a precocious 10 year old, who sent off for and carefully read the three main parties' manifestos), I don't know who to support. It's been the Conservatives every time since 1964, although obviously I couldn't actually vote until some years later, but now? Dunno.

    If the election had been one where Boris had been standing on a Jan 31st No Deal as an option, then it would have been completely unambiguous: there was no way on earth I was going to vote for that, I'd definitely have voted LibDem.

    Now that Boris seems to have belatedly come, or been forced, to his senses, it's less clear. I want to 'get Brexit done', for sure. But Boris has made, from my point of view, some spectacular errors since coming to his senses in late October. I will find it extremely hard, verging on impossible, to vote Tory now that the party has gone so bonkers that it doesn't have room for Ken Clarke, Phil Hammond, David Gauke and Amber Rudd, four politicians who epitomise exactly why I voted Tory in the first place. And I am extremely concerned by Boris repeating the same dumb mistake over an arbitrary date in respect of the extension of the transition: as Phil Hammond pointed out, what was the point of getting the Withdrawal Agreement negotiated to avoid No Deal, if you are then prepared to countenance No Deal months later? This is an absolute red line for me.

    I really don't like the LibDems for multiple reasons, not least their Revoke policy, and, like Boris, Jo Swinson keeps putting me off more. I want to vote for a grown-up, serious party, not one that tries to tack votes for children on a bill setting the date for an election in a few weeks time (and then doesn't vote for the election which they'd asked for two days earlier).

    I'm not particularly impressed by the 'vote Tory to keep Corbyn out' argument. Not letting the good be the enemy of the best is fine, indeed highly commendable. However, that does assume that the Tories are at least acceptable, which the present leadership are doing their best to tell me they are not. And in any case, a vote for the LibDems (depending on constituency) is not a vote which helps Corbyn.

    I might not vote at all, but that goes against all my principles: I strongly dislike the idea of not making a decision. 'To govern is to choose', and by extension, to have a vote is to choose.


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    Charles said:

    30% going LD seems high. I suspect as polling day approaches a chunk of that will go back to the tories as the choice becomes a clearer Corbyn or Johnson question.with Johnson's deal he is now offering a similar brexit to what May was talking about in 2017 and if it was enough for these people to vote tory then it will be now. Of course some will be put off by the character of Johnson, but that won't be the decider for most people.

    The LDs need some sort of cleggmania breakthrough at this point or else they will suffer the familiar FPTP squeeze effect from both sides. They will still increase their seats and votes from 2017 but not by enough.

    So far the campaign hasn't felt very much about Brexit. It's still in the Phoney War stage so that could change but it could be a sign that this won't really be a brexit election after all.

    I can only comment from a personal view, and anecdotally a few family and friends. I chickened out of voting LD last time, even though I was strongly tempted. However, the Tory party is now a very different beast from then, and very very different to the party that I used to be an activist for. I will be voting LD on this occasion, and I won't be changing my mind. I hope for another hung parliament, with both the main parties losing enough support for them both to consider more moderate approaches to politics.

    A vote for the LDs is a vote against extremism.
    On Brexit we have

    BXP - no deal
    Con - deal
    Lab - different deal
    LD - revoke

    I put it to you that a vote for the Lib Dems (or BXP) is a vote for extremists
    How is revoke an extremist view? It is a vote for the status quo. I am a Tory Remainer in a Tory / SNP seat. I will never vote Tory with Boris in charge. I may vote Tory for Scottish and council seats. I will probably stay at home.
    Vote LD then against Brexit but still for the Union
  • kle4 said:

    egg said:

    Cleverleys struggles on radio 4 this morning.

    Remember project fear that didn’t work. Tory’s are turning their attack on Labour’s Brexit policy into Project Fake, and shooting their own feet off.

    Cleverly seems quite funny and personable on Twitter but hes seemed to struggle in his current role
    Robinson gave him a rough time alright, but the poor sod had a really difficult brief there. Cleverley may be a grade A shit but he does his job well and the fact that even he was struggling is an indication of how wobbly a day the Tories had yesterday.
    The Conservatives will be entirely happy to talk about this kind of nonsense. It soaks up time from talking about substance, which is a much more dangerous area for them. Their unpleasantness, dishonesty and arrogance is already priced into voting decisions. For evidence of this, look upwards on this thread.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    egg said:

    Cleverleys struggles on radio 4 this morning.

    Remember project fear that didn’t work. Tory’s are turning their attack on Labour’s Brexit policy into Project Fake, and shooting their own feet off.

    Cleverly seems quite funny and personable on Twitter but hes seemed to struggle in his current role
    This election is going to expose the media toxicity and general uselessness of the front benches quite mercilessly. Nearly all the good media performers are now on the backbenches.
    Its a sad day when the nation has run out of experienced liars and the electorate is forced to listen to politicans who say what they think :smiley:
    It's what they think before they speak that matters.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,719
    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    30% going LD seems high. I suspect as polling day approaches a chunk of that will go back to the tories as the choice becomes a clearer Corbyn or Johnson question.with Johnson's deal he is now offering a similar brexit to what May was talking about in 2017 and if it was enough for these people to vote tory then it will be now. Of course some will be put off by the character of Johnson, but that won't be the decider for most people.

    The LDs need some sort of cleggmania breakthrough at this point or else they will suffer the familiar FPTP squeeze effect from both sides. They will still increase their seats and votes from 2017 but not by enough.

    So far the campaign hasn't felt very much about Brexit. It's still in the Phoney War stage so that could change but it could be a sign that this won't really be a brexit election after all.

    I can only comment from a personal view, and anecdotally a few family and friends. I chickened out of voting LD last time, even though I was strongly tempted. However, the Tory party is now a very different beast from then, and very very different to the party that I used to be an activist for. I will be voting LD on this occasion, and I won't be changing my mind. I hope for another hung parliament, with both the main parties losing enough support for them both to consider more moderate approaches to politics.

    A vote for the LDs is a vote against extremism.
    On Brexit we have

    BXP - no deal
    Con - deal
    Lab - different deal
    LD - revoke

    I put it to you that a vote for the Lib Dems (or BXP) is a vote for extremists
    How is revoke an extremist view? It is a vote for the status quo. I am a Tory Remainer in a Tory / SNP seat. I will never vote Tory with Boris in charge. I may vote Tory for Scottish and council seats. I will probably stay at home.
    He has definitely triggered people with his comment. It remains technically true despite the outrage, as it is a policy on the extreme end of the ones on offer from everyone else

    I dont know why people get so worked up by that - not all politically extreme positions are equally extreme, and some mainstream positions (so not extreme) are extreme in effect.
    Revoking without a referendum isn't extreme. The Vote Leave campaign said we'd never even need to invoke it - implying they would just seek a further renegotiation of the treaties.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    30% going LD seems high. I suspect as polling day approaches a chunk of that will go back to the tories as the choice becomes a clearer Corbyn or Johnson question.with Johnson's deal he is now offering a similar brexit to what May was talking about in 2017 and if it was enough for these people to vote tory then it will be now. Of course some will be put off by the character of Johnson, but that won't be the decider for most people.

    The LDs need some sort of cleggmania breakthrough at this point or else they will suffer the familiar FPTP squeeze effect from both sides. They will still increase their seats and votes from 2017 but not by enough.

    So far the campaign hasn't felt very much about Brexit. It's still in the Phoney War stage so that could change but it could be a sign that this won't really be a brexit election after all.

    I can only comment from a personal view, and anecdotally a few family and friends. I chickened out of voting LD last time, even though I was strongly tempted. However, the Tory party is now a very different beast from then, and very very different to the party that I used to be an activist for. I will be voting LD on this occasion, and I won't be changing my mind. I hope for another hung parliament, with both the main parties losing enough support for them both to consider more moderate approaches to politics.

    A vote for the LDs is a vote against extremism.
    On Brexit we have

    BXP - no deal
    Con - deal
    Lab - different deal
    LD - revoke

    I put it to you that a vote for the Lib Dems (or BXP) is a vote for extremists
    How is revoke an extremist view? It is a vote for the status quo. I am a Tory Remainer in a Tory / SNP seat. I will never vote Tory with Boris in charge. I may vote Tory for Scottish and council seats. I will probably stay at home.
    Revoke without a referendum is absolutely an extreme position.

    It says to all the people who voted in the referendum because they thought it mattered that their views are utterly irrelevant and that they should run along and let Jo and the other grown ups take care of things.
    If Jo Swinson wins a majority then Revoke will be the Will Of The People, and it would be undemocratic of you to protest. Is that how this thing works?
    Almost. Ok to protest but not stop it I suspect is his view in that scenario. But that seems an unrelated point to the extreme position one

    The only equivalent unnecessary reaction I can think of is when leavers get upset over advisory referendum.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    On topic: Speaking as one of those Mike is talking about, I literally don't know. For the first time since 1964 (when I was a precocious 10 year old, who sent off for and carefully read the three main parties' manifestos), I don't know who to support. It's been the Conservatives every time since 1964, although obviously I couldn't actually vote until some years later, but now? Dunno.

    If the election had been one where Boris had been standing on a Jan 31st No Deal as an option, then it would have been completely unambiguous: there was no way on earth I was going to vote for that, I'd definitely have voted LibDem.

    Now that Boris seems to have belatedly come, or been forced, to his senses, it's less clear. I want to 'get Brexit done', for sure. But Boris has made, from my point of view, some spectacular errors since coming to his senses in late October. I will find it extremely hard, verging on impossible, to vote Tory now that the party has gone so bonkers that it doesn't have room for Phil Hammond, David Gauke and Amber Rudd, three politicians who epitomise exactly why I voted Tory in the first place. And I am extremely concerned by Boris repeating the same dumb mistake over an arbitrary date in respect of the extension of the transition: as Phil Hammond pointed out, what was the point of getting the Withdrawal Agreement negotiated to avoid No Deal, if you are then prepared to countenance No Deal months later? This is an absolute red line for me.

    I really don't like the LibDems for multiple reasons, not least their Revoke policy, and, like Boris, Jo Swinson keeps putting me off more. I want to vote for a grown-up, serious party, not one that tries to tack votes for children on a bill setting the date for an election in a few weeks time (and then doesn't vote for the election which they'd asked for two days earlier).

    I'm not particularly impressed by the 'vote Tory to keep Corbyn out' argument. Not letting the good be the enemy of the best is fine, indeed highly commendable. However, that does assume that the Tories are at least acceptable, which the present leadership are doing their best to tell me they are not. And in any case, a vote for the LibDems (depending on constituency) is not a vote which helps Corbyn.

    I might not vote at all, but that goes against all my principles: I strongly dislike the idea of not making a decision. 'To govern is to choose', and by extension, to have a vote is to choose.


    There do seem to be a fair few Tories still who haven't given up on no deal, and seem to think Boris's transition deal could easily deliver that destination once the Tories are untroubled by parliamentary arithmetic
This discussion has been closed.