politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A key GE19 battleground: The GE2017 Tories who voted Remain
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NEC deciding today if jew botherer williamson and coke and rent boys Vaz get to stand again, plus the Salma Yaqoob fun and games0
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This now seems to be a prerequisite for, rather than an impediment to, political office.TheScreamingEagles said:
The Labour candidate is an absolute tool.Gallowgate said:Andy Street didn’t even carry Coventry in the WM Mayoral elections in 2017. What makes you think Boris will?
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Its Not just dodgy bar charts from the lib dems...
https://order-order.com/2019/11/06/swinsons-leaflet-attributes-quote-guardian/0 -
Trouble is that PR would probably make what we have had for the last 3 years the norm going forward.Blue_rog said:I really feel that if there is no clear majority after this GE then there will be serious discussions of moving to a form of PR, accompanied by a complete shake up of the party systems.
Looking back at the complete horlicks of the past three years this may not be a bad thing.0 -
It has been said that neither Boris or Corbyn will take part in all the leaders debateTheScreamingEagles said:
Is the coward Boris Johnson about to repeat one of Mrs May’s blunders and chicken out of a debate?Anorak said:Like Labour, the Tories are becoming reliant on talentless and thick people because the decent ones have either left or been pushed.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/11920373940081704960 -
About time.Blue_rog said:I really feel that if there is no clear majority after this GE then there will be serious discussions of moving to a form of PR, accompanied by a complete shake up of the party systems.
Looking back at the complete horlicks of the past three years this may not be a bad thing.
We economic and social liberals have been floating around 3 (or more) parties for far too long.
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I wouldn't say out of control. Higher than the fiscal hawks would have it be, too high for Tory tastes.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed and three years into Cameron's government we were desperately trying to bring down borrowing because it was out of control, not deliberately trying to increase it!Noo said:
Terrible! That would take borrowing back to levels not seen since... [checks notes] three years into Cameron's government.Philip_Thompson said:
Lets borrow a trillion pounds over the next decade . . . for our chidren's sake.Big_G_NorthWales said:Greens just announced £100 billion a year for the next 10 years for the climate change policies paid for by borrowing £91 billion per annum an £9 billion from corporation tax
There isn't a Facepalm big enough. 🤦♂️
For context, the Green plan as I understand it would take our current levels of borrowing from about the same as Greece's, to about the same as the USA's.
The original post was really just a piece of rhetoric, aggregating ten years to make the figure sound bigger. The yearly figure of 91bn is a little under 3.5% of UK GDP. Tastes will vary as to whether that's desirable or not, but it's nowhere near unreasonable.0 -
Yaqoob has said she's not seeking a GE candidacy, according to the Twitter.dyedwoolie said:NEC deciding today if jew botherer williamson and coke and rent boys Vaz get to stand again, plus the Salma Yaqoob fun and games
Having watched the Tories meltdown over the last 24 hours, this is the NEC's big chance to hand the media a load of ammunition.0 -
Check out the #ReinstateChrisWilliamson "twitter storm" today. They've all been released from the asylum to join it.dyedwoolie said:NEC deciding today if jew botherer williamson and coke and rent boys Vaz get to stand again, plus the Salma Yaqoob fun and games
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MPs should just be entitled to a pay off when they cease to be an MP after a GE, whether or not they chose to contest their seat. Are Jared O'Mara and Dominic Grieve more worthy of pay offs than others who have done no more than choose to retire? While IPSA remains accountable to no-one for their decisions, you have to wonder how it could be fixed.MarqueeMark said:
There is something not right that somebody can stand as an independent and, by virtue of getting not even one vote, can trouser tens of thousands of pounds. Perhaps it should be linked to at least saving their deposit. Give it an element of jeapordy...Xtrain said:Dominic Grieve hasn't got a chance in hell of retaining Beaconsfield.
He's standing for the pay off.
Oh and a few more weeks in the spotlight.0 -
On the upside(!) it would give Nigel a chance. 8th time lucky!Richard_Tyndall said:
Trouble is that PR would probably make what we have had for the last 3 years the norm going forward.Blue_rog said:I really feel that if there is no clear majority after this GE then there will be serious discussions of moving to a form of PR, accompanied by a complete shake up of the party systems.
Looking back at the complete horlicks of the past three years this may not be a bad thing.0 -
They confining themselves to the two tools format ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
It has been said that neither Boris or Corbyn will take part in all the leaders debateTheScreamingEagles said:
Is the coward Boris Johnson about to repeat one of Mrs May’s blunders and chicken out of a debate?Anorak said:Like Labour, the Tories are becoming reliant on talentless and thick people because the decent ones have either left or been pushed.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/11920373940081704960 -
Very nice answer from Corbyn on how the average Leave voter and the average Remain voter have more interests in common than in conflict.0
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Not sure what has been agreedNigelb said:
They confining themselves to the two tools format ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
It has been said that neither Boris or Corbyn will take part in all the leaders debateTheScreamingEagles said:
Is the coward Boris Johnson about to repeat one of Mrs May’s blunders and chicken out of a debate?Anorak said:Like Labour, the Tories are becoming reliant on talentless and thick people because the decent ones have either left or been pushed.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1192037394008170496
Going forward it needs resolving by a commission and enabling a format for all future elections0 -
Indeed. I hope @MikeSmithson produces daily threads in praise of the fragrant Jo. The explosion of gammon on here will be pure theatre.Dura_Ace said:
The shade of amaranth she brings to the flabby jowls of the pb.com tories indicates she's on to something. See also Greta T.GIN1138 said:
Is there any polling evidence to justify rebranding the Lib-Dems "Jo Swinson's Liberal Demorcrats" ?CarlottaVance said:"Jo Swinson's" Liberal Democrats
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1192019280684109825?s=20
Last time I saw a poll with personal ratings (MORI?) Swinson wasn't exactly miss popular with the electorate?0 -
Lecturn outside no 10. No seal2
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Their mutual interest is obviously keeping him well away from all the grown-up things being a PM entails.Stereotomy said:Very nice answer from Corbyn on how the average Leave voter and the average Remain voter have more interests in common than in conflict.
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I don't see the support for PR in any sort of hung parliament we could see next month.Blue_rog said:I really feel that if there is no clear majority after this GE then there will be serious discussions of moving to a form of PR, accompanied by a complete shake up of the party systems.
Looking back at the complete horlicks of the past three years this may not be a bad thing.
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** Betting Post **
Just a reminder that, in all the GE excitement, we shouldn't overlook the London Mayoral election next May. It seems remarkable to me that you can still get 1.5 (1/2 in old money) on Sadiq Khan. That's from William Hill, but the Betfair odds are similar0 -
Alun Cairns resigning, according to Laura K.0
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I believe they decide if she gets the WM mayor gig todayAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Yaqoob has said she's not seeking a GE candidacy, according to the Twitter.dyedwoolie said:NEC deciding today if jew botherer williamson and coke and rent boys Vaz get to stand again, plus the Salma Yaqoob fun and games
Having watched the Tories meltdown over the last 24 hours, this is the NEC's big chance to hand the media a load of ammunition.1 -
Alan Cairns to resign1
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Presumably he will at least not repeat her blunder of saying that he's not appearing because he's too busy to fight the election he calledTheScreamingEagles said:
Is the coward Boris Johnson about to repeat one of Mrs May’s blunders and chicken out of a debate?Anorak said:Like Labour, the Tories are becoming reliant on talentless and thick people because the decent ones have either left or been pushed.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/11920373940081704960 -
You've got to admire the Conservatives' dedication to their grid. They've set off at a frenetic pace - after yesterday's gaffe-packed day, we're already onto the second fiasco of the day and it's not even 1pm.1
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AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Early contender in the 'most dodgy graph in a leaflet' competition, and it's the Lib Dems. They've been strong in this category before, but the Scottish Tories might run them close this year.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1192044683742056449
The LD's would be wise to tone down their flexible approach to data presentation on their leaflets.
I would imagine the vast majority of their campaign literature is correct and above board but they are at risk of bringing in to question everything that pops through voters letter boxes if they keep going as they are.
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Never a good sign when a political party brands itself as the personal possession of the leader: "Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats."edmundintokyo said:
Only speaking for myself but I think Britain needs to move forward, and to move forward it needs a leader whose left shoulder is a wheel.Time_to_Leave said:
How is she doing with Remain voters? The LibDems are not targeting a majority.
https://twitter.com/LibDemPress/status/11920030693803008040 -
He's hemorrhaging the leave vote, answers like this won't help.Stereotomy said:Very nice answer from Corbyn on how the average Leave voter and the average Remain voter have more interests in common than in conflict.
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That would be incredibly dumbTheScreamingEagles said:
Is the coward Boris Johnson about to repeat one of Mrs May’s blunders and chicken out of a debate?Anorak said:Like Labour, the Tories are becoming reliant on talentless and thick people because the decent ones have either left or been pushed.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/11920373940081704960 -
Everything's going so well...
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1192049890307780608?s=20
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1192050288443764737?s=200 -
Ah - but if you look closely the polling was done by "Yougov," not "YouGov."SunnyJim said:AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Early contender in the 'most dodgy graph in a leaflet' competition, and it's the Lib Dems. They've been strong in this category before, but the Scottish Tories might run them close this year.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1192044683742056449
The LD's would be wise to tone down their flexible approach to data presentation on their leaflets.
I would imagine the vast majority of their campaign literature is correct and above board but they are at risk of bringing in to question everything that pops through voters letter boxes if they keep going as they are.0 -
Not what the polling suggestswilliamglenn said:0 -
Did we not learn anything from the last GE, Vox Pox mean f##k all. If they did, we would have PM May with a 150 seat majority propelled by loads of flat cap wearing working men's club voted Labour all my life types backing her.williamglenn said:twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1192050830649810946
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Corbyn said that ast time and changed his mind, making May look frit.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It has been said that neither Boris or Corbyn will take part in all the leaders debateTheScreamingEagles said:
Is the coward Boris Johnson about to repeat one of Mrs May’s blunders and chicken out of a debate?Anorak said:Like Labour, the Tories are becoming reliant on talentless and thick people because the decent ones have either left or been pushed.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/11920373940081704960 -
Nigel's [Stop] Brexit Campaign going well then!williamglenn said:
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Party faithful faithful to party shockFrancisUrquhart said:
Did we not learn anything from the last GE, Vox Pox mean f##k all. If they did, we would have PM May with a 150 seat majority propelled by loads of flat cap wearing working men's club voted Labour all my life types backing her.williamglenn said:twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1192050830649810946
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Lewis Goodall had strong labour connections and his reporting needs to be seen from this standportFrancisUrquhart said:
Did we not learn anything from the last GE, Vox Pox mean f##k all. If they did, we would have PM May with a 150 seat majority propelled by loads of flat cap wearing working men's club voted Labour all my life types backing her.williamglenn said:twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1192050830649810946
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The secret of comedy is timing...CarlottaVance said:0 -
I note Guido for one is trying to play up BXP divisions, but so far it seems pretty minimal.williamglenn said:0 -
Actually it's repetitionAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
The secret of comedy is timing...CarlottaVance said:0 -
Actually it's repetitionAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
The secret of comedy is timing...CarlottaVance said:1 -
That actually happened to me - we hired an open-topped bus to tour Broxtowe, and stopped from time to time to have people hand out leaflets. Someone got on and said "Do you go up Wollaton Road?".MarqueeMark said:
"All aboard!" Is it a request stop service then? Be fun when some people start flagging it down - and then telling them they have to wait until they've done their shopping at Asda.....
We took her. No charge. On reflection that constituted "treating the electorate", which is illegal. We should have charged her cost price...0 -
POLL: The Saj is ahead of John McDonnell on who you want to run economy and set taxes
But voters don't think the economy is as well run as it was in 2015
Another cracking poll by @IpsosMORI poll in tonight's @EveningStandard
https://t.co/TAphcxtuxb0 -
So far the Tories, Labour and Lib Dems have had a shocking start to their campaigns. It appears to be a race to the bottom.0
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Difference is that Boris IS doing TV debates (TM didn't do any)kle4 said:
Corbyn said that ast time and changed his mind, making May look frit.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It has been said that neither Boris or Corbyn will take part in all the leaders debateTheScreamingEagles said:
Is the coward Boris Johnson about to repeat one of Mrs May’s blunders and chicken out of a debate?Anorak said:Like Labour, the Tories are becoming reliant on talentless and thick people because the decent ones have either left or been pushed.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1192037394008170496
He's doing a head to head to Corbyn and a head to head with Corbyn and Swinson.
I assume whatever the BBC has lined up he'll do that as well.
He may be sitting out the six or seven-way debate ITV are planning and I remember in 2015 Cameron was reported as saying he'd wished he hadn't bothered with that one as having so many people taking part meant there was no time for anyone to get their points across.0 -
Best be careful- some bozo with no humour will have a 'former labour mp in corruption admission' headline ready to go.NickPalmer said:
That actually happened to me - we hired an open-topped bus to tour Broxtowe, and stopped from time to time to have people hand out leaflets. Someone got on and said "Do you go up Wollaton Road?".MarqueeMark said:
"All aboard!" Is it a request stop service then? Be fun when some people start flagging it down - and then telling them they have to wait until they've done their shopping at Asda.....
We took her. No charge. On reflection that constituted "treating the electorate", which is illegal. We should have charged her cost price...0 -
Over time, Conservative support has been rising among working class voters.FrancisUrquhart said:
Did we not learn anything from the last GE, Vox Pox mean f##k all. If they did, we would have PM May with a 150 seat majority propelled by loads of flat cap wearing working men's club voted Labour all my life types backing her.williamglenn said:twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1192050830649810946
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Not really, because parties would have to offer voters positive reasons to vote for them, rather than negative reasons not to vote for their opponents, and any realignment on an issue like Brexit would be much easier with STV which doesn't force opponents on a major policy to stick together in one party.Richard_Tyndall said:
Trouble is that PR would probably make what we have had for the last 3 years the norm going forward.Blue_rog said:I really feel that if there is no clear majority after this GE then there will be serious discussions of moving to a form of PR, accompanied by a complete shake up of the party systems.
Looking back at the complete horlicks of the past three years this may not be a bad thing.
It's also really important to point out that there are a wide variety of PR systems. There is a big difference between a system such as STV*, that they use in Ireland, with 3-5 MPs per constituency, or list PR on either a national or regional basis, as we use for European elections.
A lot of the criticisms that are levelled at PR are much reduced, or absent, with STV with reasonably-sized constituencies.
* Once known as British Proportional Representation.0 -
Can someone please inform Priti Patel that in the Midlands we actually pronounce the "g" in "ing" words. (That was a joke).Anorak said:Like Labour, the Tories are becoming reliant on talentless and thick people because the decent ones have either left or been pushed.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/11920373940081704960 -
Cairns to cooperate fully with investigation and denies wrongdoing. Trying to slide it under the rug where any criticism could 'prejuduce' the ministerial code investigation. Take the hit today and hear no more until after polling day. Sensible.0
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Perhaps they are both trying to leave the other out on a limb? I’d like to seen them followed by cameras on the day, trying to leave it as late as possible to start out for the studio so the other doesn’t get an inkling, and then engaged in a madcap dash across England to try and take their podium on time.kle4 said:
Corbyn said that ast time and changed his mind, making May look frit.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It has been said that neither Boris or Corbyn will take part in all the leaders debateTheScreamingEagles said:
Is the coward Boris Johnson about to repeat one of Mrs May’s blunders and chicken out of a debate?Anorak said:Like Labour, the Tories are becoming reliant on talentless and thick people because the decent ones have either left or been pushed.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/11920373940081704960 -
I vaguely recall Cameron making some unlucky by-election candidate stand as "David Cameron's Conservatives", then ditching the idea for future elections after it didn't go as well as he'd hoped...Chris said:
Never a good sign when a political party brands itself as the personal possession of the leader: "Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats."0 -
Bit harsh to be critical of Sajid's running of the economy when he hasn't even delivered a Budget.Big_G_NorthWales said:POLL: The Saj is ahead of John McDonnell on who you want to run economy and set taxes
But voters don't think the economy is as well run as it was in 2015
Another cracking poll by @IpsosMORI poll in tonight's @EveningStandard
https://t.co/TAphcxtuxb
Yet.0 -
I'm not sure it even was treating. No food or drink mentioned. It was a ride so probably couldn't be classed as entertainment, assuming the person was not going to Wollaton road to cast their vote. No money involved. So could it really be described as treating?kle4 said:
Best be careful- some bozo with no humour will have a 'former labour mp in corruption admission' headline ready to go.NickPalmer said:
That actually happened to me - we hired an open-topped bus to tour Broxtowe, and stopped from time to time to have people hand out leaflets. Someone got on and said "Do you go up Wollaton Road?".MarqueeMark said:
"All aboard!" Is it a request stop service then? Be fun when some people start flagging it down - and then telling them they have to wait until they've done their shopping at Asda.....
We took her. No charge. On reflection that constituted "treating the electorate", which is illegal. We should have charged her cost price...0 -
Agreed, though he probably should have resigned at 9am today!dyedwoolie said:Cairns to cooperate fully with investigation and denies wrongdoing. Trying to slide it under the rug where any criticism could 'prejuduce' the ministerial code investigation. Take the hit today and hear no more until after polling day. Sensible.
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On topic, I wouldn’t vote Liberal Democrat in a month of Sundays. At the end of the day, I don’t share their principles or values - the latest incarnation of which is pure identity politics. Nor would I vote for The Brexit Party. And, of course, I wouldn’t vote Labour in a million years. If it came to abandoning the Conservatives I’d either abstain or look to back an independent Conservative or even an independent.
I haven’t made a final decision how I’m going to vote yet but luckily my local MP is Damien Hinds, who’s very much a voice of sanity.
I’ve been in dialogue with him expressing my concern that the Conservatives don’t lose their mantle as the party of good responsible government, but I don’t know how influential he is in the circles that matter. Still, as long as people like he and Jeremy Hunt on the backbenches then there is hope.
My biggest concern is I don’t really know what Boris will do with a decent majority (I don’t trust him nor take him at his word) and I have serious reservations about the competence of some of his top team. So I’m worried I might end up regretting my vote as he uses it as a mandate to justify whatever he wants, and it might actually be a fairly chaotic administration.
I won’t make a final decision until the manifesto is published.0 -
Ealing Southalledmundintokyo said:
I vaguely recall Cameron making some unlucky by-election candidate stand as "David Cameron's Conservatives", then ditching the idea for future elections after it didn't go as well as he'd hoped...Chris said:
Never a good sign when a political party brands itself as the personal possession of the leader: "Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats."1 -
No voting intention from Mori?Big_G_NorthWales said:POLL: The Saj is ahead of John McDonnell on who you want to run economy and set taxes
But voters don't think the economy is as well run as it was in 2015
Another cracking poll by @IpsosMORI poll in tonight's @EveningStandard
https://t.co/TAphcxtuxb0 -
Exactly. With the PD redrafted for close alignment. Slam dunk. The one and only "ludicrous" aspect (arguably) is that the subsequent Ref2 would lack a Hard Leave option and thus be something of a stitch-up for Remain. Hence why I preferred Labour's old policy of Soft Brexit, no Ref2. But I recognize they had to give that up and offer the Ref to prevent a catastrophic loss of Remainer support.williamglenn said:A referendum before Brexit will just be on the WA and political declaration, not the hard detail of the future relationship, so this objection doesn't apply. We already know exactly what the options are for withdrawal.
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The country says bring back George Osborne.Big_G_NorthWales said:POLL: The Saj is ahead of John McDonnell on who you want to run economy and set taxes
But voters don't think the economy is as well run as it was in 2015
Another cracking poll by @IpsosMORI poll in tonight's @EveningStandard
https://t.co/TAphcxtuxb0 -
Has Alun Cairns' resignation been timed deliberately to coincide with the start of the Campaign?
A good day to bury bad news?0 -
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Although it limits the brand damage when you later push them under, er, a bus....Chris said:
Never a good sign when a political party brands itself as the personal possession of the leader: "Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats."edmundintokyo said:
Only speaking for myself but I think Britain needs to move forward, and to move forward it needs a leader whose left shoulder is a wheel.Time_to_Leave said:
How is she doing with Remain voters? The LibDems are not targeting a majority.
https://twitter.com/LibDemPress/status/11920030693803008041 -
A potential problem for the LDs is that they have a lot of mostly older voters who are what you might call "traditional Liberals" who've been supporting the party and its predecessors since the 1970s, and I'm not sure they're all that keen on things like identity politics. A lot of these types of voters live in the South West.Casino_Royale said:On topic, I wouldn’t vote Liberal Democrat in a month of Sundays. At the end of the day, I don’t share their principles or values - the latest incarnation of which is pure identity politics. Nor would I vote for The Brexit Party. And, of course, I wouldn’t vote Labour in a million years. If it came to abandoning the Conservatives I’d either abstain or look to back an independent Conservative or even an independent.
I haven’t made a final decision how I’m going to vote yet but luckily my local MP is Damien Hinds, who’s very much a voice of sanity.
I’ve been in dialogue with him expressing my concern that the Conservatives don’t lose their mantle as the party of good responsible government, but I don’t know how influential he is in the circles that matter. Still, as long as people like he and Jeremy Hunt on the backbenches then there is hope.
My biggest concern is I don’t really know what Boris will do with a decent majority (I don’t trust him nor take him at his word) and I have serious reservations about the competence of some of his top team. So I’m worried I might end up regretting my vote as he uses it as a mandate to justify whatever he wants, and it might actually be a fairly chaotic administration.
I won’t make a final decision until the manifesto is published.0 -
I'm old enough to remember 'SNP - Alex Salmond for First Minister', although to be fair, he did actually become FM.edmundintokyo said:
I vaguely recall Cameron making some unlucky by-election candidate stand as "David Cameron's Conservatives", then ditching the idea for future elections after it didn't go as well as he'd hoped...Chris said:
Never a good sign when a political party brands itself as the personal possession of the leader: "Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats."0 -
Along with National Service and The Rope presumably.TheScreamingEagles said:
The country says bring back George Osborne.Big_G_NorthWales said:POLL: The Saj is ahead of John McDonnell on who you want to run economy and set taxes
But voters don't think the economy is as well run as it was in 2015
Another cracking poll by @IpsosMORI poll in tonight's @EveningStandard
https://t.co/TAphcxtuxb0 -
I'm of the opinion that BXP have also had a pretty lacklustre start......this GE looks a bit more open than a few days ago.Brom said:So far the Tories, Labour and Lib Dems have had a shocking start to their campaigns. It appears to be a race to the bottom.
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Is there an otter?Big_G_NorthWales said:Lecturn outside no 10. No seal
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It does seem strange to resign just as the campaign starts, obviously better now than later though. Maybe he was pissed at the lack of support from ConHQ.Peter_the_Punter said:Has Alun Cairns' resignation been timed deliberately to coincide with the start of the Campaign?
A good day to bury bad news?0 -
Have been bedridden with flu last few days so not had much chance to post, but interesting to see even the yanks are starting to notice Johnson's similarities to Trump:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ek1WNibZxJg&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR2QAcZFGZOJA-OVv1PzhoxDkr7hZXOtgjhYw38aq5wrscwut79gsMUT3p40 -
That's enough about GermanyTheScreamingEagles said:
The country says bring back George Osborne.Big_G_NorthWales said:POLL: The Saj is ahead of John McDonnell on who you want to run economy and set taxes
But voters don't think the economy is as well run as it was in 2015
Another cracking poll by @IpsosMORI poll in tonight's @EveningStandard
https://t.co/TAphcxtuxb0 -
I have a feeling Con will be slightly UP in this weekends polls and the MSM will be left scratching their heads on Saturday night...rottenborough said:
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About how lefties getting overly-excited about a slack 1st week of the campaign means sod all when Boris wins the election at the end of the 6th?rottenborough said:
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A hung parliament offers no solutions.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, I think that is possible, and that is part of the calculation one has to make. One thing which worries me is that I'm not totally confident that the LibDems and SNP would support a Boris trade deal, if he comes back with one after a formal exit from the EU on Jan 31st. Would they play silly games again in such a scenario? If we had sensible journalists, they'd be pressing Ms Swinson on points like this.edmundintokyo said:
I think if you imagine it had instead been Con Maj 20 it would have been worse? The ERG would still have been the ERG, the opposition would still have opposed, and there wouldn't have been the votes to stop some maniac crashing out with No Deal.Richard_Nabavi said:In themselves perhaps not, but a vote for the LibDems is a vote for a hung parliament, and the one we've just had has not exactly been a triumph of principled, sensible decision-making, on Brexit or on anything else.
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Think it is worth remembering that at this stage of the last GE campaign Diane Abbott had self-destructed on live radio. Then they got their shit together and the Tories decided to release their manifesto.
If the Tories haven't already called for the voldemort from down under, they would be very wise to do so rather quickly.0 -
Spirits must be high in the Brexit Party after such a poor start to the campaign from the three main parties.0
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Afternoon all.
Tory overall majority slowly drifting out on Betfair Exchange (now 2.36/2.38) - must be a decent bet despite the Tories dreadful start to the campaign.0 -
Cairns still planning to stand0
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A hung parliament almost certainly means a second referendum.Casino_Royale said:
A hung parliament offers no solutions.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, I think that is possible, and that is part of the calculation one has to make. One thing which worries me is that I'm not totally confident that the LibDems and SNP would support a Boris trade deal, if he comes back with one after a formal exit from the EU on Jan 31st. Would they play silly games again in such a scenario? If we had sensible journalists, they'd be pressing Ms Swinson on points like this.edmundintokyo said:
I think if you imagine it had instead been Con Maj 20 it would have been worse? The ERG would still have been the ERG, the opposition would still have opposed, and there wouldn't have been the votes to stop some maniac crashing out with No Deal.Richard_Nabavi said:In themselves perhaps not, but a vote for the LibDems is a vote for a hung parliament, and the one we've just had has not exactly been a triumph of principled, sensible decision-making, on Brexit or on anything else.
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It isn't. Objectively it isn't - apart from the point I've made that the Ref2 formulation it produces could be seen as steering heavily to a Remain win.SunnyJim said:It is ludicrous though.
Absurdity through necessity I grant you but absurd none the less.
However, I have done enough on this one. You can lead a horse to water ...0 -
Halcyon days. *dons rose-tinted shades*
https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/11920561514095984690 -
That is the problem.murali_s said:Afternoon all.
Tory overall majority slowly drifting out on Betfair Exchange (now 2.36/2.38) - must be a decent bet despite the Tories dreadful start to the campaign.
They have not started yet though Boris is about to speak from no 100 -
I applaud the decision, CR.Casino_Royale said:On topic, I wouldn’t vote Liberal Democrat in a month of Sundays. At the end of the day, I don’t share their principles or values - the latest incarnation of which is pure identity politics. Nor would I vote for The Brexit Party. And, of course, I wouldn’t vote Labour in a million years. If it came to abandoning the Conservatives I’d either abstain or look to back an independent Conservative or even an independent.
I haven’t made a final decision how I’m going to vote yet but luckily my local MP is Damien Hinds, who’s very much a voice of sanity.
I’ve been in dialogue with him expressing my concern that the Conservatives don’t lose their mantle as the party of good responsible government, but I don’t know how influential he is in the circles that matter. Still, as long as people like he and Jeremy Hunt on the backbenches then there is hope.
My biggest concern is I don’t really know what Boris will do with a decent majority (I don’t trust him nor take him at his word) and I have serious reservations about the competence of some of his top team. So I’m worried I might end up regretting my vote as he uses it as a mandate to justify whatever he wants, and it might actually be a fairly chaotic administration.
I won’t make a final decision until the manifesto is published.
I have no such dilemmas. My MP is Laurence Robertson who is to be found at the more demented end of the ERG Group. Since we are talking North West Gloucestershire, he doesn't lack for support.
My partner has a similar problem to you though. Her visceral dislike of Corbyn has to be balanced against admiration for the local Labour MP, Tulip Siddiq. The mood music at the moment suggests a switch to LD, but I'll keep you informed.0 -
GE2017 says hi.Pulpstar said:
I'm running into internal contradictions very quickly indeed in my Lab minority scenario. Looks like a recipe for chaos !Noo said:
Which incoming Labour leader do you think will agree to an independence referendum in Scotland, and why do you think the Lib Dems would vote for it?Pulpstar said:A Lib Dem propped up Labour minority Gov't likely involves a change of leader in the Labour party, a renegotiation with the EU, another referendum in Scotland and another EU referendum.
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GE2017 says hi.Pulpstar said:
I'm running into internal contradictions very quickly indeed in my Lab minority scenario. Looks like a recipe for chaos !Noo said:
Which incoming Labour leader do you think will agree to an independence referendum in Scotland, and why do you think the Lib Dems would vote for it?Pulpstar said:A Lib Dem propped up Labour minority Gov't likely involves a change of leader in the Labour party, a renegotiation with the EU, another referendum in Scotland and another EU referendum.
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2nd ref only happens if Lab/SNP or Lab/LD get a majority, Ungovernable otherwise and we go to the polls again.williamglenn said:
A hung parliament almost certainly means a second referendum.Casino_Royale said:
A hung parliament offers no solutions.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, I think that is possible, and that is part of the calculation one has to make. One thing which worries me is that I'm not totally confident that the LibDems and SNP would support a Boris trade deal, if he comes back with one after a formal exit from the EU on Jan 31st. Would they play silly games again in such a scenario? If we had sensible journalists, they'd be pressing Ms Swinson on points like this.edmundintokyo said:
I think if you imagine it had instead been Con Maj 20 it would have been worse? The ERG would still have been the ERG, the opposition would still have opposed, and there wouldn't have been the votes to stop some maniac crashing out with No Deal.Richard_Nabavi said:In themselves perhaps not, but a vote for the LibDems is a vote for a hung parliament, and the one we've just had has not exactly been a triumph of principled, sensible decision-making, on Brexit or on anything else.
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There are two elections going on, it seems.
One in the eyes of the commentariat, where the tories are having a nightmare.
And one in the eyes of the voters, where the tories are twenty points ahead of labour on trust to run the economy.1 -
Slow-motion train-wreck continues.
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/11920560817674240010 -
Too late. That ship sailed long ago...Casino_Royale said:... I’ve been in dialogue with him expressing my concern that the Conservatives don’t lose their mantle as the party of good responsible government...
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And a Champagne Socialist to a skinny decaf. Off to Cafe Nero again as you ponder the absurdity of Labour's Brexit policy?kinabalu said:
It isn't. Objectively it isn't - apart from the point I've made that the Ref2 formulation it produces could be seen as steering heavily to a Remain win.SunnyJim said:It is ludicrous though.
Absurdity through necessity I grant you but absurd none the less.
However, I have done enough on this one. You can lead a horse to water ...1 -
Indeed.contrarian said:There are two elections going on, it seems.
One in the eyes of the commentariat, where the tories are having a nightmare.
And one in the eyes of the voters, where the tories are twenty points ahead of labour on trust to run the economy. 0 -
Mr. Glenn, we just had a hung Parliament, though...
Another could lead to another referendum. But I'm not sure it's likely. Depends how it's set up.0 -
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I wonder how much of a game changer it would be if one of the parties put the legalisation of cannabis into their manifesto.
It seems like natural territory for the Lib Dems and actually proves they have policies beyond Brexit.
For the Tories it could help win over younger voters and prove they aren't authoritarians like the May era.
And of course Labour could claim the tax revenues raised might actually help pay for the massive increase in spending they propose.0 -
Jesus, her faux outrage is cringe.Anorak said:Slow-motion train-wreck continues.
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/11920560817674240011 -
There’s some top quality stream of consciousness filler/waffle going on on BBC News right now.0
