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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A key GE19 battleground: The GE2017 Tories who voted Remain
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A key GE19 battleground: The GE2017 Tories who voted Remain
One sizeable group of the electorate who could make a difference on December 12th are those who have voted Conservative in the past who at the referendum went for remain. It’s estimated that this segment accounted for more than a quarter of the Conservative vote at the last general election.
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Yeah, that's fine but she needs to be asked if there is anyone in labour leadership she would back.
Saying no to Corbyn, but enabling Corbynism by other means is duplicitous
If she is going to parade around the country for the next 5 weeks screeching at everyone like Violet Elizabeth, who is going to ensure she remains an MP? It would be somewhat ironic if she presides over an increase in Liberal MPs and loses her own seat. It would make Chris Patten's defeat in 1992 look less like a Greek tragedy.
Mike writes that Opinium ‘regularly provides a breakdown’ - has there been much change in the figures over time ?
It’s a crying shame because there are ample reasons to distrust Johnson, fear Corbyn, and to get excited about the economic bonanza that would follow the cancellation of Brexit.
That reluctance might be down to the disatisfaction with the choices nationally on offer to a naturally-inclined Conservative. These voters are naturally cautious and suspicious of change - as demonstrated by their aversion to Brexit. The LibDems are seen by these voters as offering nothing other than the twin impossibilities of Revoke and Prime Minister Swinson. Corbyn's anti-semitic, Marxist Labour is beyond the pale as an option. Brexit Party is a no. Green? Will they even have a candidate in Totnes?
The reluctance here might be down to the LibDem candidate - having voted Conservatve for Dr. Wollaston in 2015, perhaps with some misgivings about her saying she would implement Brexit in 2017, they find her eventual conversion to the LibDems, via several other parties this year, somewhat baffling and unnerving. What does she still stand for - and will she still stand for it next year? (Incidentally, a concern shared by many natural LibDems and tactical-voting inclined Labour supporters you chat to.)
But I get the strong impression these Remain Tories are looking for a reason to stay with the party. Brexit doesn't define who they are politically. A campaign that says yes, we will get Brexit delivered, but look, these are the reasons beyond Brexit to vote for us is a campaign that can still have considerable traction with them.
If you are looking for late movement in the polls in this election, it could come about from two directions: Brexit Party supporters realising that a vote for the Brexit Party kills Brexit; and previous Tories realising that, once we get beyond Brexit - and boy do they want us to get beyond Brexit - their best interests are still served by a Conservative government.
Boris is lucky in his opponent and it is key to his election strategy that he exploits that to the full. No wonder he jumped at a head to head with Corbyn. That's exactly the way that he wants his own supporters to be thinking.
And now, having spent years spitting venom at anyone who does not submit completely to your obsession, you ask for their votes.
You might not see their problem. But they do.
https://twitter.com/abridgen/status/1191961820204032005?s=21
This election was sudden and I doubt the Lib Dems have had time to sort out a direction yet but within the next week or so we should discover who they've appointed what their messaging will be and how they intend to present it. One thing for sure they'll have no shortage of creative help.
Comparing any current British politician to Hitler or Stalin is wrong. It wrong when people do it on social media, it’s doubly wrong when politicians do it. When the PM does it, he sets a bad precedent and gives permission to every nutter and extremist out there.
You see, my insights shared here are based on talking to lots of voters.
In a seat that voted Remain.
Yours?
Adam and Eve - and others - worked on the Remain campaign but ultimately it underwhelmed.
There’s so substitute for clear positioning from the top.
Let’s see. Perhaps it is early days.
For me this doesn't look a particularly Conservative government. Although Hammond was dull and unimaginative he could at least be relied upon to watch the pennies. Javid and Boris seem profligate and undisciplined. The conduct of Boris over the prorogation was deeply unconservative and alarmingly casual about constitutional propriety. I get this group because I frankly share a lot of their concerns but I will (pointlessly in Dundee West) be voting Tory. I think that the vast bulk of them will do the same.
It is not just Jo that would refuse to back Corbyn and his acolytes but also those who have defected from either party. Neither are they going to back a Brexiteer. LDs are poised to pick up the None of the Above vote, and not just from former Tories.
Also: how many people out there will know what a kulak was?
The thought of a Cummings/Bridgen Conservative Party driving us all off a cliff is a severe, perhaps overwhelming disincentive.
Mr. Johnstone, I saw a tiny bit of her answering press questions yesterday, and one reply seems relevant to the point you raise.
Swinson was asked why the Lib Dems wouldn't stand aside (on a Remain basis) for Remain-type Labour MPs and she answered that Labour was not 'trustworthy' (or words to that effect) on the subject and implied that it wasn't only Corbyn but a lot of the frontbench to blame. Can't recall her precise words but the implication was that Labour as a whole had changed.
Of course, maybe she would go into coalition with someone like Cooper, but it sounded like a rejection of Corbynism as much as Corbyn.
The party has changed significantly but these people were always there albeit in the background. If they can convince that there are some sensible heads then 2017 Remain Conservatives might well remain 2019 Conservatives.
Because as @MarqueeMark notes we are Conservatives, oh and also Jeremy Corbyn.
Give me another Labour leader and outlook and we have a discussion.
(Yes, yes, I know it was also a slang term for a rich peasant.)
To the rest of us, it’s safe to vote Liberal Democrat in a LABOUR held seat.
If not, then it’s too many donkeys rather than too many cows that are the problem in Somerset NE.
"The reluctance here might be down to the LibDem candidate - having voted Conservatve for Dr. Wollaston in 2015, perhaps with some misgivings about her saying she would implement Brexit in 2017, they find her eventual conversion to the LibDems, via several other parties this year, somewhat baffling and unnerving. What does she still stand for - and will she still stand for it next year?"
Thank you for your posts MarqueeMark - I always look out for them.
Were I to live in such a constituency I would struggle to vote for a candidate that had changed party. I vote LibDem but if the local candidate was Wollaston or Umunna or Smith etc I would either not vote or spoil my paper.
I think that a lot of people feel the same as me about this.
If it drifts away into the ether as Corbyn's IRA support did in 2017, its pointless.
Let's hope Boris's team have learned the lesson from then.
To me, the depiction of Corbyn as a stalinist is bizarre. It is Johnson's party that is ruthlessly purging dissenters, dictating top down policy, and persuing ideological policies regardless of economic consequences.
Johnson and Stalin also share youthful womanising, a sense of humour and a ruthless lust for power.
Therefore votes leaking from Corbyn to the Liberal Democrats to damage Labour while not significantly helping the Tories sounds pretty good to me.
"Reject that false choice. It is not Corbyn vs Johnson. Outside Lab held seats it is perfectly safe to vote LD."
I can`t help thinking that the LDs are dogging a hole for themselves by promising that they would never back Corbyn to become PM in any circumstances.
If the Tories fail to get a majority and a Lab/LD/SNP coalition or C&S would be the only way to enable a 2nd referendum then LDs will come under stong pressure to recant on their promise. Tuition fees?
The LDs need some sort of cleggmania breakthrough at this point or else they will suffer the familiar FPTP squeeze effect from both sides. They will still increase their seats and votes from 2017 but not by enough.
So far the campaign hasn't felt very much about Brexit. It's still in the Phoney War stage so that could change but it could be a sign that this won't really be a brexit election after all.
I would be OK with describing Corbyn as a Stalinist, because he is one. He believes in state control of industry, the confiscation of private assets without compensation, and a top-down economy run for the benefit of its workforce rather than its users, not to mention all the issues around antisemitism. Just I see nothing wrong in calling Macdonnell a Maoist, Milne a liar, Johnson a fool or Cummings an imbecile.
Comparing him to Stalin personally however, if that is what Johnson has done, is going much too far. Just as I criticise that nutter on here who lightly compares everyone to Hitler, so I’m quite happy to call that out.
Have a good morning.
https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1191894324025405441?s=19
President Warren incoming...
TTFN.
https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1191894324025405441?s=19