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I know there’s been a lot of churn in 10 years. But aren’t we looking at:
- Labour unlikely to do worse than Brown 2010, when Clegg achieved a historic outperformance for the Libs (Jo not as good).
- Tory unlikely to do better than May 2017, when there was a historic consolidation by the Big 2 (and no functioning anti EU party to drain their vote share).
So that’s Labour to get >30%. And Tory to get <40%.
All this about 12-16% leads seems fanciful.0 -
My take is the polls show a majority for Boris, labour have improved from a low base, the lib dems seem to be falling as well as TBP
Boris leads in most indicators and will not be a TM on the campaign trail.
However, this has five more weeks to go and it could still be a hung parliament
And that is my honest non biased opinion0 -
"*Waah* It's not fair, we have a few MPs why aren't we included in the debates?" 😭Pulpstar said:The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.
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Received our first Labour election literature today in Newcastle. Zero mention of Corbyn.0
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I understand Boris is to offer an inflation busting pay rise to all pensioners of 3.9%
He knows his voter base0 -
God that’s cynical as anything.Big_G_NorthWales said:I understand Boris is to offer an inflation busting pay rise to all pensioners of 3.9%
He knows his voter base1 -
What was the 53 that their guy was touting as the most interesting number from the poll? Apart from LAB+LD+BXP I can't find any 53s.kle4 said:
Just one poll, etc, but that's a mighty big LD drop. Still a big improvement on last time, but those fickle voters might just not deliver for them once again.TheScreamingEagles said:Delta poll
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)
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The BBC election night coverage since the 50's is on YouTube. If you look at them, one thing stands out: the Libs always undershoot, never exceed expectations. Sometimes they do well, sometimes badly, but always a little bit worse than expected and sometimes much worse.GIN1138 said:
Who knows.AndyJS said:
I suspect the LDs are doing much better than this.Big_G_NorthWales said:Three VI polls in the Sunday papers
Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):
CON 42 (+2)
LAB 26 (+2)
LD 16 (+1)
BXP 9 (-1)
ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):
CON 36 (+10)
LAB 28 (-1)
LD 14 (+6)
BXP 12 (-2)
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)
In 2005 everyone thought they'd win 100 seats after Iraq. In 2010 we had the Cleggasm yet the Libs lost seats in the end...0 -
Why would Corbyn get as much as Brown? He certainly won't do as well as Brown in Scotland, that's a couple of percentage points right there. He's not going to do as well as Brown in Wales either, that's maybe 1% more?moonshine said:I know there’s been a lot of churn in 10 years. But aren’t we looking at:
- Labour unlikely to do worse than Brown 2010, when Clegg achieved a historic outperformance for the Libs (Jo not as good).
- Tory unlikely to do better than May 2017, when there was a historic consolidation by the Big 2 (and no functioning anti EU party to drain their vote share).
So that’s Labour to get >30%. And Tory to get <40%.
All this about 12-16% leads seems fanciful. </p>
That's before considering how many voters in England don't want to vote for an antisemite but were happy to vote for Brown.
EDIT: PS even if Tories did no better than 2017 that's >40% possible.0 -
To be honest with you HY, the poll numbers seem very credible for where we are right now, but at first glance the seat numbers feel so big a Tory victory. But at second glance that isn’t that great a lab to Tory seat pick up to create that 70 near landslide majority.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives a Tory majority of 68JohnO said:Has the latest ComRes been published here?
Tory lead up to 8
Con 36 +3
Lab 28 -1
LD 17 -1
BP 10 -2
Tories 359
Labour 205
LDs 29
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=36&LAB=28&LIB=17&Brexit=10&Green=3&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
But that is if you think of the figures at end of parliament, not the moment we finished the election last time. Those figures changed dramatically during the short parliament. One thing Curtice put his head up and said the moment the election called, we could see a lot more non Tory and Labour MPs returned than historically. Does that seat calculator say Tory win every single seat from defector and whipless wonder?0 -
BJESUS based on tonights polls (Big John Electoral Services Uniform Swing
JICIPM
CON 375
LAB 204
LD 11
SNP 37
PC 4
NI 18
GRN 1
SNP Gain Dumbartonshire East
Con Gain Barrow Bassetlaw Bedford Dudley North PenisTown Both Stoke seats Workington
LD Gain Richmond0 -
I think it is based on average pay rises in October figures which was 3.9%Gallowgate said:
God that’s cynical as anything.Big_G_NorthWales said:I understand Boris is to offer an inflation busting pay rise to all pensioners of 3.9%
He knows his voter base
Ironic TM was going to abolish the triple lock before Corbyn vetoed it0 -
What a heiferbigjohnowls said:0 -
For Democratic primary voters whose priority is beating Trump, then having something like that "may hit her with general election voters" is a problem.HYUFD said:I doubt Warren' health plans will hit her with Democratic primary voters, with general election voters maybe
In addition, advocating a policy that forces Union members to give up their current hard earned and often generous private health benefits in exchange for Medicare is problematic with Union member Democrats and their families. The UAW just had a huge strike at GM and the one thing they refused to give an inch on was health benefits - they currently have a health plan where they pay 3% of the cost, as opposed to an average employee contribution of 25%+. Biden and Buttegieg will hammer her on that.0 -
G, I do believe you are completely wrong. We will see 13th December.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Look at the leader ratings and now Boris is ahead on the NHS by 6justin124 said:
Delta does show a slight fall in the Tory lead from 13% to 12%.viewcode said:
Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the leadjustin124 said:There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.
At the same point in the 2017 campaign , Opinium reported a 17% Tory lead with ORB putting them 11% ahead.
And do not even think on who is most trusted on brexit
In Scotland I do believe Nicola has made a big mistake because she has united the union vote sgainst her0 -
Surely, once all the candidates are announced, the media will switch attention to their social media profile, Facebook and twitter feeds.alex. said:This is going to get very boring if we have another election campaign where the media spend all the time constantly talking about opinion polls. It’s almost as if the worse the pollsters perform election after election, the more the press treat them as definitive guides to public opinion. Madness!
If we are going to have 650 TBP candidates, as well as hurried selections by the other parties, there are going to be plenty of nutters who will slip through.
TBP candidate who believed she was an extraterrestrial from Sirius was a very promising start, but there is more fun & games for the media to come.
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I know elves had big ears. Because they sent Noddy a ransom note.malcolmg said:
What a heiferbigjohnowls said:0 -
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LOL. some desperate people on here.justin124 said:
On those figures - which I am not inclined to trust - Labour will gain several seats from the SNP!Alistair said:
Subsample. They even put in the article that it should be ignored.nunu2 said:https://mobile.twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1190734821842194432
SNP just ahead in Scotland?
SNP 27, Con 24, Lab 21
Pure fanciful bullshit. They should be ashamed of publishing that.
I'm sure HYUFD will be along to take it as gospel in a moment.
Having checked the 2017 results, Labour would gain 8 seats from the SNP.0 -
penistown?bigjohnowls said:BJESUS based on tonights polls (Big John Electoral Services Uniform Swing
JICIPM
CON 375
LAB 204
LD 11
SNP 37
PC 4
NI 18
GRN 1
SNP Gain Dumbartonshire East
Con Gain Barrow Bassetlaw Bedford Dudley North PenisTown Both Stoke seats Workington
LD Gain Richmond
Your not bigging that one up?0 -
Get Layla in for Swinson quickPulpstar said:The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.
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Well yeah. We're going to see even more desperate and cynical moves than usual as even more rides on this GE than most, given Brexit.Gallowgate said:
God that’s cynical as anything.Big_G_NorthWales said:I understand Boris is to offer an inflation busting pay rise to all pensioners of 3.9%
He knows his voter base
Every time? You'd think we'd learn.viewcode said:
The BBC election night coverage since the 50's is on YouTube. If you look at them, one thing stands out: the Libs always undershoot, never exceed expectations. Sometimes they do well, sometimes badly, but always a little bit worse than expected and sometimes much worse.GIN1138 said:
Who knows.AndyJS said:
I suspect the LDs are doing much better than this.Big_G_NorthWales said:Three VI polls in the Sunday papers
Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):
CON 42 (+2)
LAB 26 (+2)
LD 16 (+1)
BXP 9 (-1)
ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):
CON 36 (+10)
LAB 28 (-1)
LD 14 (+6)
BXP 12 (-2)
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)
In 2005 everyone thought they'd win 100 seats after Iraq. In 2010 we had the Cleggasm yet the Libs lost seats in the end...0 -
Its politics.Gallowgate said:
God that’s cynical as anything.Big_G_NorthWales said:I understand Boris is to offer an inflation busting pay rise to all pensioners of 3.9%
He knows his voter base0 -
God that’s cynical as anything.Gallowgate said:Received our first Labour election literature today in Newcastle. Zero mention of Corbyn.
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Tweaked my model some, and it's saying SNP majority in the HoC. Think I might have broken something .....1
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A couple of days ago the Lib Dems were hyping a Gain in Ross, Skye and Lochaber. From 4th place and 12% of the vote. They are their own worst enemies.viewcode said:
The BBC election night coverage since the 50's is on YouTube. If you look at them, one thing stands out: the Libs always undershoot, never exceed expectations. Sometimes they do well, sometimes badly, but always a little bit worse than expected and sometimes much worse.GIN1138 said:
Who knows.AndyJS said:
I suspect the LDs are doing much better than this.Big_G_NorthWales said:Three VI polls in the Sunday papers
Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):
CON 42 (+2)
LAB 26 (+2)
LD 16 (+1)
BXP 9 (-1)
ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):
CON 36 (+10)
LAB 28 (-1)
LD 14 (+6)
BXP 12 (-2)
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)
In 2005 everyone thought they'd win 100 seats after Iraq. In 2010 we had the Cleggasm yet the Libs lost seats in the end...0 -
I think we may both be satisfied. Some SNP gains but some Scons holds because of the union votemalcolmg said:
G, I do believe you are completely wrong. We will see 13th December.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Look at the leader ratings and now Boris is ahead on the NHS by 6justin124 said:
Delta does show a slight fall in the Tory lead from 13% to 12%.viewcode said:
Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the leadjustin124 said:There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.
At the same point in the 2017 campaign , Opinium reported a 17% Tory lead with ORB putting them 11% ahead.
And do not even think on who is most trusted on brexit
In Scotland I do believe Nicola has made a big mistake because she has united the union vote sgainst her
But of course we will see in December and whatever the result I still have the Scots at the centre of my affections and I will accept it without question.0 -
After all it is a General Erection.egg said:
penistown?bigjohnowls said:BJESUS based on tonights polls (Big John Electoral Services Uniform Swing
JICIPM
CON 375
LAB 204
LD 11
SNP 37
PC 4
NI 18
GRN 1
SNP Gain Dumbartonshire East
Con Gain Barrow Bassetlaw Bedford Dudley North PenisTown Both Stoke seats Workington
LD Gain Richmond
Your not bigging that one up?0 -
The LDs have dropped 4-5 points in the last month.felix said:
Yes but the recent direction of travel is backwards. As you know.TheScreamingEagles said:
By my reckoning the Lib Dems have nearly doubled their vote share since 2017.felix said:
Either all of these polls are crap or the Lds are on the slide.TheScreamingEagles said:Delta poll
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)
It is worth, however, noting that (outside of party primaries) there's no such thing as momentum. Indeed, the evidence is that a move one month has no impact on the likelihood of seeing another move the next.0 -
Labour does have reckless spending plans. They need to explain how they are going to pay for it all without the same promised tax cuts the Tories are offering.IanB2 said:0 -
almost impossible to poll above 2015 levels, it seems to be your solace every timeHYUFD said:
SNP still polling below 2015 levels even thenAlistair said:The Comres Scottish subsample is (because that is apparently a thing serious newspapers now report on)
SNP 46%
CON 16%
LAB 19%
LD 9%
Stick that in your seat calculator and smoke it0 -
Whats the triple lock say Sept wage growth.Big_G_NorthWales said:I understand Boris is to offer an inflation busting pay rise to all pensioners of 3.9%
He knows his voter base
Oh its 3.9%
HE HAS NO CHOICE its the law BigG1 -
And it’s spot on.Big_G_NorthWales said:My take is the polls show a majority for Boris, labour have improved from a low base, the lib dems seem to be falling as well as TBP
Boris leads in most indicators and will not be a TM on the campaign trail.
However, this has five more weeks to go and it could still be a hung parliament
And that is my honest non biased opinion
0 -
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Penis Town is funny Tinge land FACTegg said:
penistown?bigjohnowls said:BJESUS based on tonights polls (Big John Electoral Services Uniform Swing
JICIPM
CON 375
LAB 204
LD 11
SNP 37
PC 4
NI 18
GRN 1
SNP Gain Dumbartonshire East
Con Gain Barrow Bassetlaw Bedford Dudley North PenisTown Both Stoke seats Workington
LD Gain Richmond
Your not bigging that one up?0 -
Or 10% if you ignore the outlier...bigjohnowls said:So tonights polls have leads of 8,8,12,12,16 average lead 11.2%
Is it too late for a Labour leadership election before polling day?0 -
Excellent , I will get it in 2021, be good pocket money.bigjohnowls said:
Whats the triple lock say Sept wage growth.Big_G_NorthWales said:I understand Boris is to offer an inflation busting pay rise to all pensioners of 3.9%
He knows his voter base
Oh its 3.9%
HE HAS NO CHOICE its the law BigG0 -
Looking good for LD CON and LAB gains from SNP😊malcolmg said:
almost impossible to poll above 2015 levels, it seems to be your solace every timeHYUFD said:
SNP still polling below 2015 levels even thenAlistair said:The Comres Scottish subsample is (because that is apparently a thing serious newspapers now report on)
SNP 46%
CON 16%
LAB 19%
LD 9%
Stick that in your seat calculator and smoke it0 -
The Body Shop organises petitions among its customers - I was responsible for arranging one a few years ago on ending animal testing for cosmetics (which they've now repeated globally and got a million signatures). But while she might have got some reader interest if she'd said what the petitions were about, just mentioning signing namless petitions sounds vacuous.OblitusSumMe said:The problem with the glossy Jo Swinson booklet was that the content was really poor. Lots of vague vacuous statements, not grounded in lived experience, or stories that people could relate to. The response to a question about why she was involved in politics mentioned student campaigning she did at university, but the most specific thing referred to is "Body Shop petitions" whatever that means.
I remember the stuff that the Tories sent out in 2010, and it was so much better (even though I strongly disagreed with the politics). So far, and it's *very* early, they look to be missing out on a big opportunity.
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#GE2019 Polling Update (2nd Nov):
CON: 38.0% (+1.4)
LAB: 26.0% (+1.5)
LDM: 16.7% (-1.2)
BXP: 10.2% (-0.9)
GRN: 3.4% (-0.6)
Changes w/ 29th Oct. https://t.co/WL4LvRteRR0 -
McMao really is a dangerous loon
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/02/difficult-not-use-force-nick-clegg-says-john-mcdonnell-video/0 -
2015 was pre the Brexit vote, if the SNP cannot even get over 50% after the Brexit vote and Yes got 45% in 2014 they are still going nowhere.malcolmg said:
almost impossible to poll above 2015 levels, it seems to be your solace every timeHYUFD said:
SNP still polling below 2015 levels even thenAlistair said:The Comres Scottish subsample is (because that is apparently a thing serious newspapers now report on)
SNP 46%
CON 16%
LAB 19%
LD 9%
Stick that in your seat calculator and smoke it
Though of course a Tory majority Government will block indyref2 until at least the next Holyrood elections anyway0 -
It's about right. SuperJo is up the roadbigjohnowls said:BJESUS based on tonights polls (Big John Electoral Services Uniform Swing
JICIPM
CON 375
LAB 204
LD 11
SNP 37
PC 4
NI 18
GRN 1
SNP Gain Dumbartonshire East
Con Gain Barrow Bassetlaw Bedford Dudley North PenisTown Both Stoke seats Workington
LD Gain Richmond0 -
It is always good to agreeegg said:
And it’s spot on.Big_G_NorthWales said:My take is the polls show a majority for Boris, labour have improved from a low base, the lib dems seem to be falling as well as TBP
Boris leads in most indicators and will not be a TM on the campaign trail.
However, this has five more weeks to go and it could still be a hung parliament
And that is my honest non biased opinion0 -
I got them to personalise just for you.Gallowgate said:Received our first Labour election literature today in Newcastle. Zero mention of Corbyn.
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I’m still doubtful billionaires pay tax.Gabs2 said:0 -
I suppose I’m saying that Corbyn will outperform Brown in England because Swinson will underperform Clegg. And I think Corbyn’s appeal remains better than assumed/polled.Philip_Thompson said:
Why would Corbyn get as much as Brown? He certainly won't do as well as Brown in Scotland, that's a couple of percentage points right there. He's not going to do as well as Brown in Wales either, that's maybe 1% more?moonshine said:I know there’s been a lot of churn in 10 years. But aren’t we looking at:
- Labour unlikely to do worse than Brown 2010, when Clegg achieved a historic outperformance for the Libs (Jo not as good).
- Tory unlikely to do better than May 2017, when there was a historic consolidation by the Big 2 (and no functioning anti EU party to drain their vote share).
So that’s Labour to get >30%. And Tory to get <40%.
All this about 12-16% leads seems fanciful. </p>
That's before considering how many voters in England don't want to vote for an antisemite but were happy to vote for Brown.
EDIT: PS even if Tories did no better than 2017 that's >40% possible.
If Boris gets 40% then biscuits and gravy. But I’d have thought he’s being nowhere near as complacent to assume he’s on course for this.
What’s the view on turnout? Worse than 2017? The best money Cummings could spend this campaign sounds like to pay a few people with video cameras to very visibly stand outside the polling booths in places like Canterbury.0 -
Which of the lunatics do you want running the asylum?SandyRentool said:
Or 10% if you ignore the outlier...bigjohnowls said:So tonights polls have leads of 8,8,12,12,16 average lead 11.2%
Is it too late for a Labour leadership election before polling day?
Because it wont be a moderate0 -
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And like you, and many of the political commentators, I can’t see much that can really the maths.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is always good to agreeegg said:
And it’s spot on.Big_G_NorthWales said:My take is the polls show a majority for Boris, labour have improved from a low base, the lib dems seem to be falling as well as TBP
Boris leads in most indicators and will not be a TM on the campaign trail.
However, this has five more weeks to go and it could still be a hung parliament
And that is my honest non biased opinion0 -
There will be at least 1 multiparty leader debate like 2015StuartDickson said:0 -
Yes, Trump is still hoping to face WarrenPaulM said:
For Democratic primary voters whose priority is beating Trump, then having something like that "may hit her with general election voters" is a problem.HYUFD said:I doubt Warren' health plans will hit her with Democratic primary voters, with general election voters maybe
In addition, advocating a policy that forces Union members to give up their current hard earned and often generous private health benefits in exchange for Medicare is problematic with Union member Democrats and their families. The UAW just had a huge strike at GM and the one thing they refused to give an inch on was health benefits - they currently have a health plan where they pay 3% of the cost, as opposed to an average employee contribution of 25%+. Biden and Buttegieg will hammer her on that.0 -
Layla could give the leadership a bash after Swinsonbigjohnowls said:
Get Layla in for Swinson quickPulpstar said:The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.
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As most of them are in safe seats they should doegg said:
To be honest with you HY, the poll numbers seem very credible for where we are right now, but at first glance the seat numbers feel so big a Tory victory. But at second glance that isn’t that great a lab to Tory seat pick up to create that 70 near landslide majority.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives a Tory majority of 68JohnO said:Has the latest ComRes been published here?
Tory lead up to 8
Con 36 +3
Lab 28 -1
LD 17 -1
BP 10 -2
Tories 359
Labour 205
LDs 29
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=36&LAB=28&LIB=17&Brexit=10&Green=3&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
But that is if you think of the figures at end of parliament, not the moment we finished the election last time. Those figures changed dramatically during the short parliament. One thing Curtice put his head up and said the moment the election called, we could see a lot more non Tory and Labour MPs returned than historically. Does that seat calculator say Tory win every single seat from defector and whipless wonder?0 -
0.05% swing to Lab!!Big_G_NorthWales said:#GE2019 Polling Update (2nd Nov):
CON: 38.0% (+1.4)
LAB: 26.0% (+1.5)
LDM: 16.7% (-1.2)
BXP: 10.2% (-0.9)
GRN: 3.4% (-0.6)
Changes w/ 29th Oct. https://t.co/WL4LvRteRR0 -
The LibDems need a slap across the face to wake them up.Pulpstar said:
Layla could give the leadership a bash after Swinsonbigjohnowls said:
Get Layla in for Swinson quickPulpstar said:The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.
0 -
Straight answer - Starmer.Floater said:
Which of the lunatics do you want running the asylum?SandyRentool said:
Or 10% if you ignore the outlier...bigjohnowls said:So tonights polls have leads of 8,8,12,12,16 average lead 11.2%
Is it too late for a Labour leadership election before polling day?
Because it wont be a moderate
Wild card, post-defeat - Jess Phillips0 -
Labour need to be under 200 seats. They need a serious smashing to get rid of Corbyn and those who think like him
0 -
There will be no dementia tax gaffes like last time and a more populist campaign from Boris than May and Boris will do the debates too unlike May.MikeSmithson said:
Plus the Brexit Party will take Labour working class votes in the North, Wales and Midlands and the LDs are doing better in Labour Remain seats0 -
Oh look its this reply again.HYUFD said:
There will be no dementia tax gaffes like last time and a more populist campaign from Boris than May and Boris will do the debates too unlike May.MikeSmithson said:
Plus the Brexit Party will take Labour working class votes in the North, Wales and Midlands and the LDs are doing better in Labour Remain seats0 -
Will be, Long-Bailey or Pidcock, to the LDs benefit mainlySandyRentool said:
Straight answer - Starmer.Floater said:
Which of the lunatics do you want running the asylum?SandyRentool said:
Or 10% if you ignore the outlier...bigjohnowls said:So tonights polls have leads of 8,8,12,12,16 average lead 11.2%
Is it too late for a Labour leadership election before polling day?
Because it wont be a moderate
Wild card, post-defeat - Jess Phillips0 -
We know the model then was broken. What happened then and what is being polled are not the same. They have all tweaked their models to some extent.MikeSmithson said:0 -
I think we should get it checked out. It sounds just wrong.bigjohnowls said:
Penis Town is funny Tinge land FACTegg said:
penistown?bigjohnowls said:BJESUS based on tonights polls (Big John Electoral Services Uniform Swing
JICIPM
CON 375
LAB 204
LD 11
SNP 37
PC 4
NI 18
GRN 1
SNP Gain Dumbartonshire East
Con Gain Barrow Bassetlaw Bedford Dudley North PenisTown Both Stoke seats Workington
LD Gain Richmond
Your not bigging that one up?0 -
If Chuka wins Cities of London and Westminster he will likely be next LD leaderPulpstar said:
Layla could give the leadership a bash after Swinsonbigjohnowls said:
Get Layla in for Swinson quickPulpstar said:The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.
0 -
#SuperLaylaPulpstar said:
Layla could give the leadership a bash after Swinsonbigjohnowls said:
Get Layla in for Swinson quickPulpstar said:The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.
0 -
I know it's a stretch, but I'm fairly sure Farage does not look like Carrie Fisher...Sunil_Prasannan said:
Leia beat him to it, saying "It's a Trap!" twice to Luke after his arrival in Cloud City!MarqueeMark said:
Great picture of Farage doing his Admiral Akbar impression: "It's a trap!"PagetVC said:
https://starwars.fandom.com/wiki/Admiral?file=Ackbar_CloseUp.jpg
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Remember that the MPs decide who gets on the ballot.HYUFD said:
Will be, Long-Bailey or Pidcock, to the LDs benefit mainlySandyRentool said:
Straight answer - Starmer.Floater said:
Which of the lunatics do you want running the asylum?SandyRentool said:
Or 10% if you ignore the outlier...bigjohnowls said:So tonights polls have leads of 8,8,12,12,16 average lead 11.2%
Is it too late for a Labour leadership election before polling day?
Because it wont be a moderate
Wild card, post-defeat - Jess Phillips0 -
The voters are about to supply that slap. Swinson was a dreadful unforced error.YBarddCwsc said:
The LibDems need a slap across the face to wake them up.Pulpstar said:
Layla could give the leadership a bash after Swinsonbigjohnowls said:
Get Layla in for Swinson quickPulpstar said:The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.
0 -
That, and opinion actually changed during the campaign.SquareRoot said:
We know the model then was broken. What happened then and what is being polled are not the same. They have all tweaked their models to some extent.MikeSmithson said:0 -
Latest poll says CON gain Durham NW. Cheerio Pidcock!0
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Copy and paste king. Solid for the next 5 weeks.HYUFD said:
There will be no dementia tax gaffes like last time and a more populist campaign from Boris than May and Boris will do the debates too unlike May.MikeSmithson said:
Plus the Brexit Party will take Labour working class votes in the North, Wales and Midlands and the LDs are doing better in Labour Remain seats0 -
If Layla was leader now I dont think they would have knee jerked Revoke and could see them taking many LAB and CON seats.HYUFD said:
If Chuka wins Cities of London and Westminster he will likely be next LD leaderPulpstar said:
Layla could give the leadership a bash after Swinsonbigjohnowls said:
Get Layla in for Swinson quickPulpstar said:The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.
Its wipeout under Tory Swinson0 -
A laylapede? Morangasm?Ave_it said:
#SuperLaylaPulpstar said:
Layla could give the leadership a bash after Swinsonbigjohnowls said:
Get Layla in for Swinson quickPulpstar said:The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.
I can’t keep up. It all too volatile. Jo started the evening storming it.0 -
Yes and there won't be unforced errors like removing winter fuel allowance etc etc etc. May's 2017 campaign was the worst ever by a Tory leader.RobD said:
That, and opinion actually changed during the campaign.SquareRoot said:
We know the model then was broken. What happened then and what is being polled are not the same. They have all tweaked their models to some extent.MikeSmithson said:0 -
He won't.HYUFD said:
If Chuka wins Cities of London and Westminster he will likely be next LD leaderPulpstar said:
Layla could give the leadership a bash after Swinsonbigjohnowls said:
Get Layla in for Swinson quickPulpstar said:The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.
Nobody likes a hypocrite and splitter0 -
Unbelievable. Looks like SNP might gain seats now. Earlier today I told malcolmg that LD would cream SNP!egg said:
A laylapede? Morangasm?Ave_it said:
#SuperLaylaPulpstar said:
Layla could give the leadership a bash after Swinsonbigjohnowls said:
Get Layla in for Swinson quickPulpstar said:The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.
I can’t keep up. It all too volatile. Jo started the evening storming it.0 -
Indeed.rottenborough said:
S Carolina is his problem. But it will be a nice problem to have if he wins in Iowa.rcs1000 said:
The latest New Hampshire poll has him in double digits. He's got the big mo.Foxy said:Mayor Pete polling in the last 3 national polls at 2%, 4% and 8%, with Warren at 3 times that score:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/
The only polling that is close is the Iowa ones, but there Warren is polling better. In the other early contests Buttigeig is not in the running.
Warren certainly has detailed plans and policies vulnerable to fisking, while Buttigeig specialises in vague waffle, but how long is that sustainable?
I see Buttigieg and Warren as being roughly 45% shots apiece for Iowa. Buttigieg absolutely has to win it. Warren, so long as she's a good second, can afford to lose.
The really interesting question is what happens if Biden places third or worse in both Iowa and New Hampshire. His selling point is that he's a winner. And I think if you take that away, there's not much there.0 -
It will be Long Bailey. Pidcock interests me, there’s something there.HYUFD said:
Will be, Long-Bailey or Pidcock, to the LDs benefit mainlySandyRentool said:
Straight answer - Starmer.Floater said:
Which of the lunatics do you want running the asylum?SandyRentool said:
Or 10% if you ignore the outlier...bigjohnowls said:So tonights polls have leads of 8,8,12,12,16 average lead 11.2%
Is it too late for a Labour leadership election before polling day?
Because it wont be a moderate
Wild card, post-defeat - Jess Phillips0 -
Looks like it's LAB hold Sheffield Hallam!bigjohnowls said:
If Layla was leader now I dont think they would have knee jerked Revoke and could see them taking many LAB and CON seats.HYUFD said:
If Chuka wins Cities of London and Westminster he will likely be next LD leaderPulpstar said:
Layla could give the leadership a bash after Swinsonbigjohnowls said:
Get Layla in for Swinson quickPulpstar said:The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.
Its wipeout under Tory Swinson0 -
Anyway I've stuck £200 on Labour this evening. £50 on Miliband 1-2 to hold £50 Barnsley Central 2-7 and £100 vote share match bet Vs Lib Dems 1-40
-
And, not to LD benefit if Tory support crashes and burns before 2025 election. Which can’t be ruled out.egg said:
It will be Long Bailey. Pidcock interests me, there’s something there.HYUFD said:
Will be, Long-Bailey or Pidcock, to the LDs benefit mainlySandyRentool said:
Straight answer - Starmer.Floater said:
Which of the lunatics do you want running the asylum?SandyRentool said:
Or 10% if you ignore the outlier...bigjohnowls said:So tonights polls have leads of 8,8,12,12,16 average lead 11.2%
Is it too late for a Labour leadership election before polling day?
Because it wont be a moderate
Wild card, post-defeat - Jess Phillips
Incidentally, with a Dec 12 election, what’s the latest it can be held, five years on top is right on Christmas again 🥳.0 -
#notgoingtobethesamethistime etc etcMikeSmithson said:
But its still incredible that some are writing Labour off as though such a recovery is definitely impossible. It doesn't even need to be the same level of recovery as last time. The debate might even be a critical moment, if up to then not much Labour cutting the gap, or the reverse, to see if BoJo and JerCo can step up.0 -
No i have that as a LD Gain TBF
Lose Norfolk North and Eastbourne in a terrible night for Tory Swinson0 -
Chuka seems a nice lad. He doesn’t strike me as a leader. Depends if the Lib Dem’s are happy to sit around talking to themselves in a nice and pleasant way, or want to become the second party post Corbyn. Equally I am mystified why anyone thinks the quite peculiar seeming Layla Moran would be fairing better than Swinson.bigjohnowls said:
He won't.HYUFD said:
If Chuka wins Cities of London and Westminster he will likely be next LD leaderPulpstar said:
Layla could give the leadership a bash after Swinsonbigjohnowls said:
Get Layla in for Swinson quickPulpstar said:The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.
Nobody likes a hypocrite and splitter0 -
Good grief, what an awesomely unflattering picture that is, it’s worse than the infamous bacon sarnie they slapped Miliband with.PagetVC said:
BTW, I am disappointed that nobody has attempted to sound the Scottish Labour surge KLAXON!0 -
And it has to be a choice of two ie a moderate and a Corbynista, plus thanks to Momentum selections Labour MPs 0are more Corbynista than 2015 tooSandyRentool said:
Remember that the MPs decide who gets on the ballot.HYUFD said:
Will be, Long-Bailey or Pidcock, to the LDs benefit mainlySandyRentool said:
Straight answer - Starmer.Floater said:
Which of the lunatics do you want running the asylum?SandyRentool said:
Or 10% if you ignore the outlier...bigjohnowls said:So tonights polls have leads of 8,8,12,12,16 average lead 11.2%
Is it too late for a Labour leadership election before polling day?
Because it wont be a moderate
Wild card, post-defeat - Jess Phillips0 -
They do like a winner and if he gains a seat on a huge swing he will be thatbigjohnowls said:
He won't.HYUFD said:
If Chuka wins Cities of London and Westminster he will likely be next LD leaderPulpstar said:
Layla could give the leadership a bash after Swinsonbigjohnowls said:
Get Layla in for Swinson quickPulpstar said:The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.
Nobody likes a hypocrite and splitter0 -
There will still be Labour MPs after this?SandyRentool said:
Remember that the MPs decide who gets on the ballot.HYUFD said:
Will be, Long-Bailey or Pidcock, to the LDs benefit mainlySandyRentool said:
Straight answer - Starmer.Floater said:
Which of the lunatics do you want running the asylum?SandyRentool said:
Or 10% if you ignore the outlier...bigjohnowls said:So tonights polls have leads of 8,8,12,12,16 average lead 11.2%
Is it too late for a Labour leadership election before polling day?
Because it wont be a moderate
Wild card, post-defeat - Jess Phillips0 -
The squeeze of the Lib Dem vote has already started . They’ll be doing well to get 10% to 12% of the vote in the GE.
0 -
Especially if Booker and Harris had already run out of funds and pulled out.rcs1000 said:
Indeed.rottenborough said:
S Carolina is his problem. But it will be a nice problem to have if he wins in Iowa.rcs1000 said:
The latest New Hampshire poll has him in double digits. He's got the big mo.Foxy said:Mayor Pete polling in the last 3 national polls at 2%, 4% and 8%, with Warren at 3 times that score:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/
The only polling that is close is the Iowa ones, but there Warren is polling better. In the other early contests Buttigeig is not in the running.
Warren certainly has detailed plans and policies vulnerable to fisking, while Buttigeig specialises in vague waffle, but how long is that sustainable?
I see Buttigieg and Warren as being roughly 45% shots apiece for Iowa. Buttigieg absolutely has to win it. Warren, so long as she's a good second, can afford to lose.
The really interesting question is what happens if Biden places third or worse in both Iowa and New Hampshire. His selling point is that he's a winner. And I think if you take that away, there's not much there.0
