politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Warren on the slide in WH2020 nomination betting after negativ
Comments
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Toasty......egg said:
All I want for crispmas is you.Beibheirli_C said:
Pity they missed the obvious pun... "All I want for Crispmas....."Philip_Thompson said:
I will not bother taking off my hat or coat....
How are you, warm in that coat? 0 -
But Boris is brexit. He owns it. How can anyone get within 25% being better than him with it?egg said:
Whose the 26% who think he’s best for brexit?GIN1138 said:
Terrible numbers for Jezza. Really dreadful!Big_G_NorthWales said:Deltapoll
Net approval
Boris +-2
Corbyn -43
Best for NHS
Boris 40%
Corbyn 34%
Best for Brexit
Boris 51%
Corbyn 26%
Actually, what does that even mean, best for brexit?0 -
Corbyn should stop campaigning then 😂justin124 said:
Delta does show a slight fall in the Tory lead from 13% to 12%.viewcode said:
Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the leadjustin124 said:There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.
At the same point in the 2017 campaign , Opinium reported a 17% Tory lead with ORB putting them 11% ahead.
For different reasons. I suspect that both the Tory and Labour camps will be quite satisfied tonight . The LDs will have taken a knock.0 -
S Carolina is his problem. But it will be a nice problem to have if he wins in Iowa.rcs1000 said:
The latest New Hampshire poll has him in double digits. He's got the big mo.Foxy said:Mayor Pete polling in the last 3 national polls at 2%, 4% and 8%, with Warren at 3 times that score:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/
The only polling that is close is the Iowa ones, but there Warren is polling better. In the other early contests Buttigeig is not in the running.
Warren certainly has detailed plans and policies vulnerable to fisking, while Buttigeig specialises in vague waffle, but how long is that sustainable?0 -
Corbyn 6 behind Boris on the NHS. Maybe the voters want it sold to the US?GIN1138 said:
Terrible numbers for Jezza. Really dreadful!Big_G_NorthWales said:Deltapoll
Net approval
Boris +-2
Corbyn -43
Best for NHS
Boris 40%
Corbyn 34%
Best for Brexit
Boris 51%
Corbyn 26%0 -
No evidence at all to suggest it's volatile, but the last couple have been so people are assuming it'll continue.egg said:
But is it volatile. Poll after poll show 40% want brexit wrangling out their lives with a Boris win. Why shouldn’t this be it, all up to the glorious 12th?rottenborough said:
All to be taken with a bucket of salt at this stage of a v volatile election.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Bah, all outliers, every single one of them!Big_G_NorthWales said:Three VI polls in the Sunday papers
Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):
CON 42 (+2)
LAB 26 (+2)
LD 16 (+1)
BXP 9 (-1)
ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):
CON 36 (+10)
LAB 28 (-1)
LD 14 (+6)
BXP 12 (-2)
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)0 -
I suspect the LDs are doing much better than this.Big_G_NorthWales said:Three VI polls in the Sunday papers
Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):
CON 42 (+2)
LAB 26 (+2)
LD 16 (+1)
BXP 9 (-1)
ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):
CON 36 (+10)
LAB 28 (-1)
LD 14 (+6)
BXP 12 (-2)
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)0 -
Looks that way. I think that, most elections, if one party starts the campaign with leads in the range of 10-15 points then they're going to win a crushing victory. Sometimes, rarely, it will be turned around, but it's really hard to do.Andrew said:Kinda curious to see poll after poll implying a crushing Bozo victory, yet the spreads are stuck on 320.
Wondering perhaps if the betting markets are fighting the last war, assuming a repeat.
Still, there is a possibility that the YouGov MRP will show something different.0 -
Can anyone tell me any policy issue outside revoke the lib dems stand for
All anyone hears is revoke and that could be a very big error
Why on earth did they not adopt the peoples vote (daft name) and openly campaign for a referendum. Curious to say the least0 -
All of that is baked into these Voting Intention figures.If Corbyn campaigns well , that data will shift.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Look at the leader ratings and now Boris is ahead on the NHS by 6justin124 said:
Delta does show a slight fall in the Tory lead from 13% to 12%.viewcode said:
Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the leadjustin124 said:There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.
At the same point in the 2017 campaign , Opinium reported a 17% Tory lead with ORB putting them 11% ahead.
And do not even think on who is most trusted on brexit
In Scotland I do believe Nicola has made a big mistake because she has united the union vote sgainst her
Re - Scotland I rather agree with you as far as Sturgeon is concerned - but the pro- union vote actually looks divided on those figures with Tories on 24% and Labour on 22%. As I have pointed out in the past, if the SNP fall back at all compared with 2017 , Labour has the potential for significant gains there. I have never expected the SNP to exceed 35% at the next Westminster election - but I would need confirmatory evidence before really accepting the data released tonight.0 -
Spreads might be smart enough to suspect regional variations and much TV.Andrew said:Kinda curious to see poll after poll implying a crushing Bozo victory, yet the spreads are stuck on 320.
Wondering perhaps if the betting markets are fighting the last war, assuming a repeat.
TV meaning tactical vote. Just thought ide explain that for any newbies lurking wondering what an election is and all the jargon we use.
For those curious newbies, other jargon we use.
pineapple. A pineapple is a term for a poll you don’t like the taste of. Just thinking of the poll makes you feel queasy.
All the polls are pineapple to labour tonight.
Other tips for newbie lurkers, if you see any reference to train timetable, journey, engine or carriage numbers, this is in fact secret code how we share hot tips with each other without rest of world getting on it and shifting the price.1 -
Who knows.AndyJS said:
I suspect the LDs are doing much better than this.Big_G_NorthWales said:Three VI polls in the Sunday papers
Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):
CON 42 (+2)
LAB 26 (+2)
LD 16 (+1)
BXP 9 (-1)
ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):
CON 36 (+10)
LAB 28 (-1)
LD 14 (+6)
BXP 12 (-2)
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)
In 2005 everyone thought they'd win 100 seats after Iraq. In 2010 we had the Cleggasm yet the Libs lost seats in the end...0 -
If nothing else you are loyal but Corbyn is too far behind in all areas and he is going to lose seats and that is the case in Scotland as welljustin124 said:
All of that is baked into these Voting Intention figures.If Corbyn campaigns well , that data will shift.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Look at the leader ratings and now Boris is ahead on the NHS by 6justin124 said:
Delta does show a slight fall in the Tory lead from 13% to 12%.viewcode said:
Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the leadjustin124 said:There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.
At the same point in the 2017 campaign , Opinium reported a 17% Tory lead with ORB putting them 11% ahead.
And do not even think on who is most trusted on brexit
In Scotland I do believe Nicola has made a big mistake because she has united the union vote sgainst her
Re - Scotland I rather agree with you as far as Sturgeon is concerned - but the pro- union vote actually looks divided on those figures with Tories on 24% and Labour on 22%. As I have pointed out in the past, if the SNP fall back at all compared with 2017 , Labour has the potential for significant gains there. I have never expected the SNP to exceed 35% at the next Westminster election - but I would need confirmatory evidence before really accepting the data released tonight.0 -
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But it is a smaller lead than enjoyed by the Tories at the same stage in 2017.OblitusSumMe said:
Looks that way. I think that, most elections, if one party starts the campaign with leads in the range of 10-15 points then they're going to win a crushing victory. Sometimes, rarely, it will be turned around, but it's really hard to do.Andrew said:Kinda curious to see poll after poll implying a crushing Bozo victory, yet the spreads are stuck on 320.
Wondering perhaps if the betting markets are fighting the last war, assuming a repeat.
Still, there is a possibility that the YouGov MRP will show something different.
I am also recalling the February 1974 election - which was only a 3 week campaign. In the first week there were polls giving the Tories leads of 8% , 9% and 11%. Barely two weeks later the Tories led in the popular vote by 0.8%.0 -
Now we are waiting for the Swinstorm©.GIN1138 said:
Who knows.AndyJS said:
I suspect the LDs are doing much better than this.Big_G_NorthWales said:Three VI polls in the Sunday papers
Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):
CON 42 (+2)
LAB 26 (+2)
LD 16 (+1)
BXP 9 (-1)
ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):
CON 36 (+10)
LAB 28 (-1)
LD 14 (+6)
BXP 12 (-2)
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)
In 2005 everyone thought they'd win 100 seats after Iraq. In 2010 we had the Cleggasm yet the Libs lost seats in the end...0 -
A fairer voting system.Big_G_NorthWales said:Can anyone tell me any policy issue outside revoke the lib dems stand for
All anyone hears is revoke and that could be a very big error
Why on earth did they not adopt the peoples vote (daft name) and openly campaign for a referendum. Curious to say the least1 -
No loyalty is involved - I am spoiling my ballot paper. On tonight's figures Labour will gain seats in Scotland - IF they are at all accurate.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If nothing else you are loyal but Corbyn is too far behind in all areas and he is going to lose seats and that is the case in Scotland as welljustin124 said:
All of that is baked into these Voting Intention figures.If Corbyn campaigns well , that data will shift.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Look at the leader ratings and now Boris is ahead on the NHS by 6justin124 said:
Delta does show a slight fall in the Tory lead from 13% to 12%.viewcode said:
Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the leadjustin124 said:There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.
At the same point in the 2017 campaign , Opinium reported a 17% Tory lead with ORB putting them 11% ahead.
And do not even think on who is most trusted on brexit
In Scotland I do believe Nicola has made a big mistake because she has united the union vote sgainst her
Re - Scotland I rather agree with you as far as Sturgeon is concerned - but the pro- union vote actually looks divided on those figures with Tories on 24% and Labour on 22%. As I have pointed out in the past, if the SNP fall back at all compared with 2017 , Labour has the potential for significant gains there. I have never expected the SNP to exceed 35% at the next Westminster election - but I would need confirmatory evidence before really accepting the data released tonight.0 -
Is that it - really ?AndyJS said:
A fairer voting system.Big_G_NorthWales said:Can anyone tell me any policy issue outside revoke the lib dems stand for
All anyone hears is revoke and that could be a very big error
Why on earth did they not adopt the peoples vote (daft name) and openly campaign for a referendum. Curious to say the least0 -
So we are pouring over the numbers looking for signs of Joggasm?GIN1138 said:
Who knows.AndyJS said:
I suspect the LDs are doing much better than this.Big_G_NorthWales said:Three VI polls in the Sunday papers
Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):
CON 42 (+2)
LAB 26 (+2)
LD 16 (+1)
BXP 9 (-1)
ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):
CON 36 (+10)
LAB 28 (-1)
LD 14 (+6)
BXP 12 (-2)
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)
In 2005 everyone thought they'd win 100 seats after Iraq. In 2010 we had the Cleggasm yet the Libs lost seats in the end...
The Cleggasm didn’t start squirting till that first debate in Bristol?0 -
You are blinded to reality and in denialjustin124 said:
But it is a smaller lead than enjoyed by the Tories at the same stage in 2017.OblitusSumMe said:
Looks that way. I think that, most elections, if one party starts the campaign with leads in the range of 10-15 points then they're going to win a crushing victory. Sometimes, rarely, it will be turned around, but it's really hard to do.Andrew said:Kinda curious to see poll after poll implying a crushing Bozo victory, yet the spreads are stuck on 320.
Wondering perhaps if the betting markets are fighting the last war, assuming a repeat.
Still, there is a possibility that the YouGov MRP will show something different.
I am also recalling the February 1974 election - which was only a 3 week campaign. In the first week there were polls giving the Tories leads of 8% , 9% and 11%. Barely two weeks later the Tories led in the popular vote by 0.8%.0 -
I hope you are keeping an eye on your niece -- we don't want her to lose that bequest with a slip of the pen on the ballot paper !justin124 said:
No loyalty is involved - I am spoiling my ballot paper. On tonight's figures Labour will gain seats in Scotlanf - IF they are at all accurate.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If nothing else you are loyal but Corbyn is too far behind in all areas and he is going to lose seats and that is the case in Scotland as welljustin124 said:
All of that is baked into these Voting Intention figures.If Corbyn campaigns well , that data will shift.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Look at the leader ratings and now Boris is ahead on the NHS by 6justin124 said:
Delta does show a slight fall in the Tory lead from 13% to 12%.viewcode said:
Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the leadjustin124 said:There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.
At the same point in the 2017 campaign , Opinium reported a 17% Tory lead with ORB putting them 11% ahead.
And do not even think on who is most trusted on brexit
In Scotland I do believe Nicola has made a big mistake because she has united the union vote sgainst her
Re - Scotland I rather agree with you as far as Sturgeon is concerned - but the pro- union vote actually looks divided on those figures with Tories on 24% and Labour on 22%. As I have pointed out in the past, if the SNP fall back at all compared with 2017 , Labour has the potential for significant gains there. I have never expected the SNP to exceed 35% at the next Westminster election - but I would need confirmatory evidence before really accepting the data released tonight.0 -
Not a chancejustin124 said:
No loyalty is involved - I am spoiling my ballot paper. On tonight's figures Labour will gain seats in Scotland - IF they are at all accurate.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If nothing else you are loyal but Corbyn is too far behind in all areas and he is going to lose seats and that is the case in Scotland as welljustin124 said:
All of that is baked into these Voting Intention figures.If Corbyn campaigns well , that data will shift.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Look at the leader ratings and now Boris is ahead on the NHS by 6justin124 said:
Delta does show a slight fall in the Tory lead from 13% to 12%.viewcode said:
Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the leadjustin124 said:There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.
At the same point in the 2017 campaign , Opinium reported a 17% Tory lead with ORB putting them 11% ahead.
And do not even think on who is most trusted on brexit
In Scotland I do believe Nicola has made a big mistake because she has united the union vote sgainst her
Re - Scotland I rather agree with you as far as Sturgeon is concerned - but the pro- union vote actually looks divided on those figures with Tories on 24% and Labour on 22%. As I have pointed out in the past, if the SNP fall back at all compared with 2017 , Labour has the potential for significant gains there. I have never expected the SNP to exceed 35% at the next Westminster election - but I would need confirmatory evidence before really accepting the data released tonight.0 -
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This was always going to happen regardless of what Sturgeon said.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Look at the leader ratings and now Boris is ahead on the NHS by 6justin124 said:
Delta does show a slight fall in the Tory lead from 13% to 12%.viewcode said:
Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the leadjustin124 said:There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.
At the same point in the 2017 campaign , Opinium reported a 17% Tory lead with ORB putting them 11% ahead.
And do not even think on who is most trusted on brexit
In Scotland I do believe Nicola has made a big mistake because she has united the union vote sgainst her
Apart from abandoning the very notion of independence itself what could have Sturgeon said to avoid uniting the unionist vote against her?
2017 saw unprecedented levels of Unionist tactical voting0 -
You think Boris is honest, will complete Brexit and unite the country.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You are blinded to reality and in denialjustin124 said:
But it is a smaller lead than enjoyed by the Tories at the same stage in 2017.OblitusSumMe said:
Looks that way. I think that, most elections, if one party starts the campaign with leads in the range of 10-15 points then they're going to win a crushing victory. Sometimes, rarely, it will be turned around, but it's really hard to do.Andrew said:Kinda curious to see poll after poll implying a crushing Bozo victory, yet the spreads are stuck on 320.
Wondering perhaps if the betting markets are fighting the last war, assuming a repeat.
Still, there is a possibility that the YouGov MRP will show something different.
I am also recalling the February 1974 election - which was only a 3 week campaign. In the first week there were polls giving the Tories leads of 8% , 9% and 11%. Barely two weeks later the Tories led in the popular vote by 0.8%.2 -
Update. Swinstorm much better.egg said:
So we are pouring over the numbers looking for signs of Joggasm?GIN1138 said:
Who knows.AndyJS said:
I suspect the LDs are doing much better than this.Big_G_NorthWales said:Three VI polls in the Sunday papers
Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):
CON 42 (+2)
LAB 26 (+2)
LD 16 (+1)
BXP 9 (-1)
ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):
CON 36 (+10)
LAB 28 (-1)
LD 14 (+6)
BXP 12 (-2)
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)
In 2005 everyone thought they'd win 100 seats after Iraq. In 2010 we had the Cleggasm yet the Libs lost seats in the end...
The Cleggasm didn’t start squirting till that first debate in Bristol?
Swinstorm it is. A tornado valley type twister to lift Dorothy all the way to Downing Street.
Don’t you just love PB when we set a lead for the rest of the media to follow?0 -
Yes, sometimes it is turned around, but most of the time it won't be.justin124 said:
But it is a smaller lead than enjoyed by the Tories at the same stage in 2017.OblitusSumMe said:
Looks that way. I think that, most elections, if one party starts the campaign with leads in the range of 10-15 points then they're going to win a crushing victory. Sometimes, rarely, it will be turned around, but it's really hard to do.Andrew said:Kinda curious to see poll after poll implying a crushing Bozo victory, yet the spreads are stuck on 320.
Wondering perhaps if the betting markets are fighting the last war, assuming a repeat.
Still, there is a possibility that the YouGov MRP will show something different.
I am also recalling the February 1974 election - which was only a 3 week campaign. In the first week there were polls giving the Tories leads of 8% , 9% and 11%. Barely two weeks later the Tories led in the popular vote by 0.8%.
2001 - Labour had double-digit poll leads. They won a crushing victory.
1997 - Labout had double-digit poll leads. They won a crushing victory.
1987 - The Tories had some double-digit poll leads. They won a crushing victory.
1983 - The Tories had double-digit poll leads. They won a crushing victory.
2019 - The Tories have double digit poll leads. The most likely outcome is that they win a crushing victory.0 -
12% lead is trouble ?Scott_P said:0 -
So according to that ST article, YouGov are showing the Tory lead down to 12% with Labour up 6 to 27 and the Cons only up 3 to 39.0
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I'm not a Corbyn basher, but this does seem to be some usage of the word 'bounce' I am not familiar with.Scott_P said:0 -
^^^^ This from a party loyalist!Big_G_NorthWales said:
You are blinded to reality and in denial
Pot. Kettle. 0 -
YouGov
Con 39 (+3)
Lab 27 (+6)
LD 16 (-3)
BXP 7 (-6)0 -
Gimme hope Jo Swinsonphiliph said:
Now we are waiting for the Swinstorm©.GIN1138 said:
Who knows.AndyJS said:
I suspect the LDs are doing much better than this.Big_G_NorthWales said:Three VI polls in the Sunday papers
Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):
CON 42 (+2)
LAB 26 (+2)
LD 16 (+1)
BXP 9 (-1)
ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):
CON 36 (+10)
LAB 28 (-1)
LD 14 (+6)
BXP 12 (-2)
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)
In 2005 everyone thought they'd win 100 seats after Iraq. In 2010 we had the Cleggasm yet the Libs lost seats in the end...
Hope Jo Swinson
Gimme hope Jo Swinson
'Fore the morning come
Gimme hope, Jo Swinson
Hope, Jo Swinson
Hope before the morning come1 -
You wait all day for a poll and then about 6 come along at once.0
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Fits the vote for anyone other than Boris, get the communist Corbyn narrative that Boris wants.Scott_P said:0 -
Nope. They just don’t believe they hype and attacks that comes out the unpopular labour leadership. And so shall it continue, probably all up to and passed the point it is privatised.MarqueeMark said:
Corbyn 6 behind Boris on the NHS. Maybe the voters want it sold to the US?GIN1138 said:
Terrible numbers for Jezza. Really dreadful!Big_G_NorthWales said:Deltapoll
Net approval
Boris +-2
Corbyn -43
Best for NHS
Boris 40%
Corbyn 34%
Best for Brexit
Boris 51%
Corbyn 26%0 -
Yes - but justin is correct that the route to improving the outcome goes through avoiding anti-Tory voters wandering off to the LibDems in Lab-Con marginals. I'm reasonably OK with these polls at this point - I'll explain why in a header tomorrow.viewcode said:
Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the leadjustin124 said:There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.
0 -
Needs to have love-in connotations like Cleggasm. May I humbly suggest Swinswoon.egg said:
Update. Swinstorm much better.egg said:
So we are pouring over the numbers looking for signs of Joggasm?GIN1138 said:
Who knows.AndyJS said:
I suspect the LDs are doing much better than this.Big_G_NorthWales said:Three VI polls in the Sunday papers
Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):
CON 42 (+2)
LAB 26 (+2)
LD 16 (+1)
BXP 9 (-1)
ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):
CON 36 (+10)
LAB 28 (-1)
LD 14 (+6)
BXP 12 (-2)
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)
In 2005 everyone thought they'd win 100 seats after Iraq. In 2010 we had the Cleggasm yet the Libs lost seats in the end...
The Cleggasm didn’t start squirting till that first debate in Bristol?
Swinstorm it is. A tornado valley type twister to lift Dorothy all the way to Downing Street.
Don’t you just love PB when we set a lead for the rest of the media to follow?1 -
Swinson now has to give the media reason to use the term.egg said:
Update. Swinstorm much better.egg said:
So we are pouring over the numbers looking for signs of Joggasm?GIN1138 said:
Who knows.AndyJS said:
I suspect the LDs are doing much better than this.Big_G_NorthWales said:Three VI polls in the Sunday papers
Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):
CON 42 (+2)
LAB 26 (+2)
LD 16 (+1)
BXP 9 (-1)
ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):
CON 36 (+10)
LAB 28 (-1)
LD 14 (+6)
BXP 12 (-2)
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)
In 2005 everyone thought they'd win 100 seats after Iraq. In 2010 we had the Cleggasm yet the Libs lost seats in the end...
The Cleggasm didn’t start squirting till that first debate in Bristol?
Swinstorm it is. A tornado valley type twister to lift Dorothy all the way to Downing Street.
Don’t you just love PB when we set a lead for the rest of the media to follow?0 -
Has the latest ComRes been published here?
Tory lead up to 8
Con 36 +3
Lab 28 -1
LD 17 -1
BP 10 -21 -
The LDs are definitely slipping. I wouldn't like to be long them at 45 seats.felix said:
Either all of these polls are crap or the Lds are on the slide.TheScreamingEagles said:Delta poll
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)1 -
Ooh looks like Corbyn has narrowed the tory lead in yougov0
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What makes you think that? What we don't know is how much the figures are concentrating in marginals, of course. But although Corbyn is behind Johnson in every catrgory on the latest poll, Swinson is behind Corbyn in every category too (except Grinch!), and the LibDems have made her a central figure in their literature, so I'm not sure it's still lack of familiarity.AndyJS said:<
I suspect the LDs are doing much better than this.0 -
These pollls may represent her Swinsong.....Pro_Rata said:
Needs to have love-in connotations like Cleggasm. May I humbly suggest Swinswoon.egg said:
Update. Swinstorm much better.egg said:
So we are pouring over the numbers looking for signs of Joggasm?GIN1138 said:
Who knows.AndyJS said:
I suspect the LDs are doing much better than this.Big_G_NorthWales said:Three VI polls in the Sunday papers
Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):
CON 42 (+2)
LAB 26 (+2)
LD 16 (+1)
BXP 9 (-1)
ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):
CON 36 (+10)
LAB 28 (-1)
LD 14 (+6)
BXP 12 (-2)
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)
In 2005 everyone thought they'd win 100 seats after Iraq. In 2010 we had the Cleggasm yet the Libs lost seats in the end...
The Cleggasm didn’t start squirting till that first debate in Bristol?
Swinstorm it is. A tornado valley type twister to lift Dorothy all the way to Downing Street.
Don’t you just love PB when we set a lead for the rest of the media to follow?1 -
As I said, the media want a close race hence the ridiculous spinBig_G_NorthWales said:
12% lead is trouble ?Scott_P said:
Otherwise it will be a boring 6 weeks0 -
Yes it has!JohnO said:Has the latest ComRes been published here?
Tory lead up to 8
Con 36 +3
Lab 28 -1
LD 17 -1
BP 10 -20 -
I agree, silly isn’t it. Boris in crisis because his rating chugging ever upward are running out of steam.Big_G_NorthWales said:
12% lead is trouble ?Scott_P said:
Like the papers coverage of the football, when you haven’t won for 4 games suddenly you’re in crisis.
What’s interesting getting so many polls at once is the clear trend. Tories round about 40, labour about 27, libdems about 18. Brexit Party crushed and not even a player now.0 -
How will George Osborne react?Floater said:Those attempts to downplay the anti semitism problem have got off to a bad start
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/02/labour-suspends-art-critic-standing-parliamentary-candidate/0 -
But in both 1997 and 2001 Labour's lead in the popular vote was much smaller than polls were suggesting early in those campaigns. In 1997 Labour won by 13% - in 2001 the margin was circa 9% -, but polls had been predicting 20% plus margins for much of both campaigns.OblitusSumMe said:
Yes, sometimes it is turned around, but most of the time it won't be.justin124 said:
But it is a smaller lead than enjoyed by the Tories at the same stage in 2017.OblitusSumMe said:
Looks that way. I think that, most elections, if one party starts the campaign with leads in the range of 10-15 points then they're going to win a crushing victory. Sometimes, rarely, it will be turned around, but it's really hard to do.Andrew said:Kinda curious to see poll after poll implying a crushing Bozo victory, yet the spreads are stuck on 320.
Wondering perhaps if the betting markets are fighting the last war, assuming a repeat.
Still, there is a possibility that the YouGov MRP will show something different.
I am also recalling the February 1974 election - which was only a 3 week campaign. In the first week there were polls giving the Tories leads of 8% , 9% and 11%. Barely two weeks later the Tories led in the popular vote by 0.8%.
2001 - Labour had double-digit poll leads. They won a crushing victory.
1997 - Labout had double-digit poll leads. They won a crushing victory.
1987 - The Tories had some double-digit poll leads. They won a crushing victory.
1983 - The Tories had double-digit poll leads. They won a crushing victory.
2019 - The Tories have double digit poll leads. The most likely outcome is that they win a crushing victory.
In 1987 the Tories began with leads as high as 18% - and won by 11.8%. The Tory margin held up in 1983 - but the vote shares of both parties fell back as a result of the Alliance surge.0 -
Not if its on polling day!Big_G_NorthWales said:
12% lead is trouble ?Scott_P said:0 -
The right wing press aren't going to make the same mistake as in 2017. They'll make this out to be close when right now it's nothing of the sort0
-
Labour's highest vote share with Yougov since end of April. Labour began the 2017 campaign with a 24% share.TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov
Con 39 (+3)
Lab 27 (+6)
LD 16 (-3)
BXP 7 (-6)0 -
But there’s still time for the Swinstorm (c)philih once she starts debating.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Gimme hope Jo Swinsonphiliph said:
Now we are waiting for the Swinstorm©.GIN1138 said:
Who knows.AndyJS said:
I suspect the LDs are doing much better than this.Big_G_NorthWales said:Three VI polls in the Sunday papers
Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):
CON 42 (+2)
LAB 26 (+2)
LD 16 (+1)
BXP 9 (-1)
ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):
CON 36 (+10)
LAB 28 (-1)
LD 14 (+6)
BXP 12 (-2)
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)
In 2005 everyone thought they'd win 100 seats after Iraq. In 2010 we had the Cleggasm yet the Libs lost seats in the end...
Hope Jo Swinson
Gimme hope Jo Swinson
'Fore the morning come
Gimme hope, Jo Swinson
Hope, Jo Swinson
Hope before the morning come
How does she normally debate, serene, respectful, with the aura of experience and wisdom the moment needs?0 -
Tory absolute share heading north lessens losses to Lib Dems and SNP too0
-
Concerning thing is there is a lot of LD to squeeze there. BXP squeeze nearly complete.TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov
Con 39 (+3)
Lab 27 (+6)
LD 16 (-3)
BXP 7 (-6)0 -
The Comres Scottish subsample is (because that is apparently a thing serious newspapers now report on)
SNP 46%
CON 16%
LAB 19%
LD 9%
Stick that in your seat calculator and smoke it1 -
I believe he only recently joined the Tory party...Beibheirli_C said:
^^^^ This from a party loyalist!Big_G_NorthWales said:
You are blinded to reality and in denial
Pot. Kettle.0 -
The problem with the glossy Jo Swinson booklet was that the content was really poor. Lots of vague vacuous statements, not grounded in lived experience, or stories that people could relate to. The response to a question about why she was involved in politics mentioned student campaigning she did at university, but the most specific thing referred to is "Body Shop petitions" whatever that means.NickPalmer said:
What makes you think that? What we don't know is how much the figures are concentrating in marginals, of course. But although Corbyn is behind Johnson in every catrgory on the latest poll, Swinson is behind Corbyn in every category too (except Grinch!), and the LibDems have made her a central figure in their literature, so I'm not sure it's still lack of familiarity.AndyJS said:<
I suspect the LDs are doing much better than this.
I remember the stuff that the Tories sent out in 2010, and it was so much better (even though I strongly disagreed with the politics). So far, and it's *very* early, they look to be missing out on a big opportunity.0 -
So looks like we have three tiers now:
Comres/Orb/Survation 8%
Panel/YG/Delta 11/12/12
Opinium (and guessing Kantar) 16%0 -
Great picture of Farage doing his Admiral Akbar impression: "It's a trap!"PagetVC said:
https://starwars.fandom.com/wiki/Admiral?file=Ackbar_CloseUp.jpg0 -
Leia beat him to it, saying "It's a Trap!" twice to Luke after his arrival in Cloud City!MarqueeMark said:
Great picture of Farage doing his Admiral Akbar impression: "It's a trap!"PagetVC said:
https://starwars.fandom.com/wiki/Admiral?file=Ackbar_CloseUp.jpg0 -
Just one poll, etc, but that's a mighty big LD drop. Still a big improvement on last time, but those fickle voters might just not deliver for them once again.TheScreamingEagles said:Delta poll
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)0 -
On the face of it the Brexit Party squeeze has benefited Labour and Conservatives equally. So that would imply that it's irrelevant.Philip_Thompson said:
Concerning thing is there is a lot of LD to squeeze there. BXP squeeze nearly complete.TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov
Con 39 (+3)
Lab 27 (+6)
LD 16 (-3)
BXP 7 (-6)0 -
I think if labour are not closing the gap at all in the next couple of weeks thered be reason to be very concerned for labour. Thus early on it's just concerning for them without giving reason to give up hope.egg said:
Let’s not demoralise Justin before the end of the first week. Where’s the sport in that.viewcode said:
Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the leadjustin124 said:There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.
Keep telling yourself Justin, All oppositions recover from bad polls, it’s always governments who die in the end.
Hang in till at least last weekend before polling hoping something miraculous will turn up.0 -
I’m not sure that’s a fair headline on the second story. Before I read it my assumption was that Boris had made a gay rape commentPagetVC said:0 -
Oh I love swinswoon. Very good. Very strong.Pro_Rata said:
Needs to have love-in connotations like Cleggasm. May I humbly suggest Swinswoon.egg said:
Update. Swinstorm much better.egg said:
So we are pouring over the numbers looking for signs of Joggasm?GIN1138 said:
Who knows.AndyJS said:
I suspect the LDs are doing much better than this.Big_G_NorthWales said:Three VI polls in the Sunday papers
Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):
CON 42 (+2)
LAB 26 (+2)
LD 16 (+1)
BXP 9 (-1)
ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):
CON 36 (+10)
LAB 28 (-1)
LD 14 (+6)
BXP 12 (-2)
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)
In 2005 everyone thought they'd win 100 seats after Iraq. In 2010 we had the Cleggasm yet the Libs lost seats in the end...
The Cleggasm didn’t start squirting till that first debate in Bristol?
Swinstorm it is. A tornado valley type twister to lift Dorothy all the way to Downing Street.
Don’t you just love PB when we set a lead for the rest of the media to follow?
It’s up there with swinstorm. Just marginally behind I suggest, because it’s not so slippy off the tongue, and a storm is a storm is a storm, which you’d rather have in politics than a swoon?0 -
Hopefully this will be the end of discussion of single Scottish subsamples in isolation, and we'll soon have a proper Scotland poll instead.Alistair said:The Comres Scottish subsample is (because that is apparently a thing serious newspapers now report on)
SNP 46%
CON 16%
LAB 19%
LD 9%
Stick that in your seat calculator and smoke it0 -
No - I rejoined ten days agoCharles said:
I believe he only recently joined the Tory party...Beibheirli_C said:
^^^^ This from a party loyalist!Big_G_NorthWales said:
You are blinded to reality and in denial
Pot. Kettle.0 -
You did not ask for a complete list of their policies, you asked for 'any policy issue' they stand for.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Is that it - really ?AndyJS said:
A fairer voting system.Big_G_NorthWales said:Can anyone tell me any policy issue outside revoke the lib dems stand for
All anyone hears is revoke and that could be a very big error
Why on earth did they not adopt the peoples vote (daft name) and openly campaign for a referendum. Curious to say the least
So of course that's not it.0 -
Ten days is a long time in politicsBig_G_NorthWales said:
No - I rejoined ten days agoCharles said:
I believe he only recently joined the Tory party...Beibheirli_C said:
^^^^ This from a party loyalist!Big_G_NorthWales said:
You are blinded to reality and in denial
Pot. Kettle.0 -
This is going to get very boring if we have another election campaign where the media spend all the time constantly talking about opinion polls. It’s almost as if the worse the pollsters perform election after election, the more the press treat them as definitive guides to public opinion. Madness!0
-
Interesting point.Philip_Thompson said:
Concerning thing is there is a lot of LD to squeeze there. BXP squeeze nearly complete.TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov
Con 39 (+3)
Lab 27 (+6)
LD 16 (-3)
BXP 7 (-6)
And if BP get traction could they squeeze back, and it becomes a game of who squeeze me last laughs loudest?0 -
A lot of people want to believe LD voters wont go Lab again, or that it makes no sense. Early days, but theres at least some indications that is bollocks.justin124 said:
Labour's highest vote share with Yougov since end of April. Labour began the 2017 campaign with a 24% share.TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov
Con 39 (+3)
Lab 27 (+6)
LD 16 (-3)
BXP 7 (-6)0 -
I doubt Warren' health plans will hit her with Democratic primary voters, with general election voters maybe0
-
QTWAIN.egg said:
Interesting point.Philip_Thompson said:
Concerning thing is there is a lot of LD to squeeze there. BXP squeeze nearly complete.TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov
Con 39 (+3)
Lab 27 (+6)
LD 16 (-3)
BXP 7 (-6)
And if BP get traction could they squeeze back, and it becomes a game of who squeeze me last laughs loudest?0 -
I know... I was teasing our BevBig_G_NorthWales said:
No - I rejoined ten days agoCharles said:
I believe he only recently joined the Tory party...Beibheirli_C said:
^^^^ This from a party loyalist!Big_G_NorthWales said:
You are blinded to reality and in denial
Pot. Kettle.0 -
It's a simple area to focus on and reporting them cannot draw complaint in the way reporting on an actual event does.alex. said:This is going to get very boring if we have another election campaign where the media spend all the time constantly talking about opinion polls. It’s almost as if the worse the pollsters perform election after election, the more the press treat them as definitive guides to public opinion. Madness!
0 -
You are sort of saying many of those brexiteers were lefties all along and stick with Labour in GE, BP in EU?OblitusSumMe said:
On the face of it the Brexit Party squeeze has benefited Labour and Conservatives equally. So that would imply that it's irrelevant.Philip_Thompson said:
Concerning thing is there is a lot of LD to squeeze there. BXP squeeze nearly complete.TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov
Con 39 (+3)
Lab 27 (+6)
LD 16 (-3)
BXP 7 (-6)0 -
So tonights polls have leads of 8,8,12,12,16 average lead 11.2%0
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The precise lead the Tories had in 1987 = 102 seat majority. No reason to think the same thing wouldn't happen this year.bigjohnowls said:So tonights polls have leads of 8,8,12,12,16 average lead 11.2%
0 -
It is a real risk if LibDem voters come to the conclusion that Revoke with the Libdems is dead but there is still a chance with Labour's renegotiation then second vote.Philip_Thompson said:
Concerning thing is there is a lot of LD to squeeze there. BXP squeeze nearly complete.TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov
Con 39 (+3)
Lab 27 (+6)
LD 16 (-3)
BXP 7 (-6)
However, it requires LibDems to vote for the anti-semites. They have to hold their nose and overcome their gag reflex. It's not for all by any means.0 -
I’ll take that as no then. No BP squeeze back once their juice all squeezed out.Philip_Thompson said:
QTWAIN.egg said:
Interesting point.Philip_Thompson said:
Concerning thing is there is a lot of LD to squeeze there. BXP squeeze nearly complete.TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov
Con 39 (+3)
Lab 27 (+6)
LD 16 (-3)
BXP 7 (-6)
And if BP get traction could they squeeze back, and it becomes a game of who squeeze me last laughs loudest?
So their YouGov won’t be getting back into double figures at Boris expense.
They’ve been juiced.
And there was me thinking I was actually in agreement with you.0 -
Electoral Calculus gives a Tory majority of 68JohnO said:Has the latest ComRes been published here?
Tory lead up to 8
Con 36 +3
Lab 28 -1
LD 17 -1
BP 10 -2
Tories 359
Labour 205
LDs 29
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=36&LAB=28&LIB=17&Brexit=10&Green=3&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base0 -
But another poor number for the LibDems. The got 7% there in 2017.HYUFD said:
SNP still polling below 2015 levels even thenAlistair said:The Comres Scottish subsample is (because that is apparently a thing serious newspapers now report on)
SNP 46%
CON 16%
LAB 19%
LD 9%
Stick that in your seat calculator and smoke it0 -
"Tory campaign in trouble because their lead has dropped from 13% to 12%".
That seems to be the standard of the commentary tonight from the newspapers.0 -
Still 2% up though not muchMarqueeMark said:
But another poor number for the LibDems. The got 7% there in 2017.HYUFD said:
SNP still polling below 2015 levels even thenAlistair said:The Comres Scottish subsample is (because that is apparently a thing serious newspapers now report on)
SNP 46%
CON 16%
LAB 19%
LD 9%
Stick that in your seat calculator and smoke it0 -
Betfair SNP under 51.5 seats looks value.0
-
The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.
0
