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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Warren on the slide in WH2020 nomination betting after negative response to her healthcare funding plan
There’ve been big movements in the betting in the fight for the Democratic nomination with one-time favourite, Beto O’Rourke, now pulling himself out of the race and the current favourite Elizabeth Warren seeing a dramatic slide in her betting position.
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First.0
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You're a moderator. I cry foul.TheScreamingEagles said:First.
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Loving TSE's opium den smoking jacket on the previous thread.....0
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I wonder which PB poster was pushing Buttigieg when he was available at more than 20-1?0
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Anyway, just collected my winnings on a December election from Betfair.
Only partly lifts my dark mood as I sense a Johnson win ahead.0 -
Of course there's a causal link. But shouldn't the people of Blackpool get to decide how serious a really, really small earthquake is?MarqueeMark said:
But it is nothing to do with "wealthy ecologists in North London" deciding it. It is because each time the Govt. has allowed fracking to start up again, the eathquakes have resumed. There seems to be an undeniable causal link.rcs1000 said:For the record, I am sceptical of the economics of fracking in the UK. But that is not a matter for central government regulation. Wealthy ecologists in North London shouldn't be deciding whether fracking is right for Blackpool - that should be a matter for the locals.
This is yet another area where, Brexit aside, I'm finding myself with very little reason to vote Conservative.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-494713210 -
It has been christened my Hugh Hefner jacket.MarqueeMark said:Loving TSE's opium den smoking jacket on the previous thread.....
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As the odds weren't 50/1, presumably not your dad?rcs1000 said:I wonder which PB poster was pushing Buttigieg when he was available at more than 20-1?
Didn't Cyclefree's son big him up very early on?0 -
Have you headed up north recently ?rcs1000 said:
Of course there's a causal link. But shouldn't the people of Blackpool get to decide how serious a really, really small earthquake is?MarqueeMark said:
But it is nothing to do with "wealthy ecologists in North London" deciding it. It is because each time the Govt. has allowed fracking to start up again, the eathquakes have resumed. There seems to be an undeniable causal link.rcs1000 said:For the record, I am sceptical of the economics of fracking in the UK. But that is not a matter for central government regulation. Wealthy ecologists in North London shouldn't be deciding whether fracking is right for Blackpool - that should be a matter for the locals.
This is yet another area where, Brexit aside, I'm finding myself with very little reason to vote Conservative.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-49471321
People would sooner join the euro than have fracking anywhere near them.0 -
Yep. She mentioned him when he was more than 100-1MarqueeMark said:
As the odds weren't 50/1, presumably not your dad?rcs1000 said:I wonder which PB poster was pushing Buttigieg when he was available at more than 20-1?
Didn't Cyclefree's son big him up very early on?0 -
They probably think it's similar to arklefting.Pulpstar said:
Have you headed up north recently ?rcs1000 said:
Of course there's a causal link. But shouldn't the people of Blackpool get to decide how serious a really, really small earthquake is?MarqueeMark said:
But it is nothing to do with "wealthy ecologists in North London" deciding it. It is because each time the Govt. has allowed fracking to start up again, the eathquakes have resumed. There seems to be an undeniable causal link.rcs1000 said:For the record, I am sceptical of the economics of fracking in the UK. But that is not a matter for central government regulation. Wealthy ecologists in North London shouldn't be deciding whether fracking is right for Blackpool - that should be a matter for the locals.
This is yet another area where, Brexit aside, I'm finding myself with very little reason to vote Conservative.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-49471321
People would sooner join the euro than have fracking anywhere near them.0 -
He was first recommended by James Naughtie on late night radio many months ago. He used to work in the US and he said he'd heard from friends that Buttigleg was the hot prospect.MarqueeMark said:
As the odds weren't 50/1, presumably not your dad?rcs1000 said:I wonder which PB poster was pushing Buttigieg when he was available at more than 20-1?
Didn't Cyclefree's son big him up very early on?1 -
What is the unpopular part of Warren's plan?
From what I heard second hand it would cost almost everyone, including employers, less than the status quo.0 -
FPT @Big_G_NorthWales I can only assume you got your PV installed quite a few years ago when the rates were high. There’s no way a 4kW domestic array will yield £800 a year now.0
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Mayor Pete polling in the last 3 national polls at 2%, 4% and 8%, with Warren at 3 times that score:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/
The only polling that is close is the Iowa ones, but there Warren is polling better. In the other early contests Buttigeig is not in the running.
Warren certainly has detailed plans and policies vulnerable to fisking, while Buttigeig specialises in vague waffle, but how long is that sustainable?
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Fracking was rejected by Labour-led Lancashire county council. Javid overruled that.rcs1000 said:
Of course there's a causal link. But shouldn't the people of Blackpool get to decide how serious a really, really small earthquake is?MarqueeMark said:
But it is nothing to do with "wealthy ecologists in North London" deciding it. It is because each time the Govt. has allowed fracking to start up again, the eathquakes have resumed. There seems to be an undeniable causal link.rcs1000 said:For the record, I am sceptical of the economics of fracking in the UK. But that is not a matter for central government regulation. Wealthy ecologists in North London shouldn't be deciding whether fracking is right for Blackpool - that should be a matter for the locals.
This is yet another area where, Brexit aside, I'm finding myself with very little reason to vote Conservative.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-49471321
Cuadrilla has been told to pack up by Tory-led Fylde borough council. The local Tory MP for the Fylde has asked for it to be stopped. The Labour MP for Blackpool likewise.
National opinion polls are negative on fracking. I imagine a poll of Fylde residents would be very negative. People getting woken up by the house shaking kind of turns you off the industry.
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And still an 8 year simple payback at that revenue level.Gallowgate said:FPT @Big_G_NorthWales I can only assume you got your PV installed quite a few years ago when the rates were high. There’s no way a 4kW domestic array will yield £800 a year now.
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Not sure that table is going to cover all Labour's losses.....PagetVC said:0 -
Well into the Presidency, if the current incumbent is anything to go by?Foxy said:Mayor Pete polling in the last 3 national polls at 2%, 4% and 8%, with Warren at 3 times that score:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/
The only polling that is close is the Iowa ones, but there Warren is polling better. In the other early contests Buttigeig is not in the running.
Warren certainly has detailed plans and policies vulnerable to fisking, while Buttigeig specialises in vague waffle, but how long is that sustainable?0 -
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My best Buttigieg bet was at 40/1 in late Marchrcs1000 said:
Yep. She mentioned him when he was more than 100-1MarqueeMark said:
As the odds weren't 50/1, presumably not your dad?rcs1000 said:I wonder which PB poster was pushing Buttigieg when he was available at more than 20-1?
Didn't Cyclefree's son big him up very early on?0 -
His odds went out recently during the Warren surge. I topped up thenMikeSmithson said:
My best Buttigieg bet was at 40/1 in late Marchrcs1000 said:
Yep. She mentioned him when he was more than 100-1MarqueeMark said:
As the odds weren't 50/1, presumably not your dad?rcs1000 said:I wonder which PB poster was pushing Buttigieg when he was available at more than 20-1?
Didn't Cyclefree's son big him up very early on?0 -
So I'm not alone in thinking their crisps are massively over-rated! Bland, bland, bland.Philip_Thompson said:
Meanwhile, all Arlene Foster wants for Christmas is unionist unity.0 -
Bland boring crap - and unless they've changed it with everyone going on about packaging waste, a bag of air most of the time.RWP said:
So I'm not alone in thinking their crisps are massively over-rated! Bland, bland, bland.Philip_Thompson said:
Meanwhile, all Arlene Foster wants for Christmas is unionist unity.
McCoys, Doritos and Pringles are all far better of the big brands.1 -
Train from Gainsborough Central to Barnetby black-biro'ed today, despite the shit weather and various engineering diversions. Also did the Sleaford avoider, and rode my first LNER Class 800 Azuma back to London!SandyRentool said:
And still an 8 year simple payback at that revenue level.Gallowgate said:FPT @Big_G_NorthWales I can only assume you got your PV installed quite a few years ago when the rates were high. There’s no way a 4kW domestic array will yield £800 a year now.
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Sorry have I missed the poll talk. Opinonion has boris cruising up yet more towards the mid forties and orb has Tory’s up ten points.
Labour ought to just pack bags and fly out to med for a holiday. Nothing for them here for at least 2 or 3 years even if they get leadership right next time0 -
rcs1000 said:
I wonder which PB poster was pushing Buttigieg when he was available at more than 20-1?
Yes, he did. And I got on him at about 50-1 from memory.MarqueeMark said:
As the odds weren't 50/1, presumably not your dad?rcs1000 said:I wonder which PB poster was pushing Buttigieg when he was available at more than 20-1?
Didn't Cyclefree's son big him up very early on?
My first political bet - and if he gets the nomination, either as candidate for President or V-P, a very profitable one.
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When was the last poll with Labour in front?0
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Delta : Con 40 Lab 28 LD 14 BXP 110
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The higher Tory vote recorded by ORB is compared with last April!egg said:Sorry have I missed the poll talk. Opinonion has boris cruising up yet more towards the mid forties and orb has Tory’s up ten points.
Labour ought to just pack bags and fly out to med for a holiday. Nothing for them here for at least 2 or 3 years even if they get leadership right next time0 -
End of July, with ComRes.viewcode said:When was the last poll with Labour in front?
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Delta poll
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)0 -
4 years ago and approx £600 feed it tariff plus reduction in energy used of approx £200.Gallowgate said:FPT @Big_G_NorthWales I can only assume you got your PV installed quite a few years ago when the rates were high. There’s no way a 4kW domestic array will yield £800 a year now.
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Yet another outlierfelix said:Delta : Con 40 Lab 28 LD 14 BXP 11
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Did you come through Ancaster on the Sleaford train? If so you went within about half a mile of me.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Train from Gainsborough Central to Barnetby black-biro'ed today, despite the shit weather and various engineering diversions. Also did the Sleaford avoider, and rode my first LNER Class 800 Azuma back to London!SandyRentool said:
And still an 8 year simple payback at that revenue level.Gallowgate said:FPT @Big_G_NorthWales I can only assume you got your PV installed quite a few years ago when the rates were high. There’s no way a 4kW domestic array will yield £800 a year now.
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Fourth pollster to put Tories on 40%+0
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_electionviewcode said:When was the last poll with Labour in front?
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Either all of these polls are crap or the Lds are on the slide.TheScreamingEagles said:Delta poll
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)0 -
0
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By my reckoning the Lib Dems have nearly doubled their vote share since 2017.felix said:
Either all of these polls are crap or the Lds are on the slide.TheScreamingEagles said:Delta poll
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)
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Three VI polls in the Sunday papers
Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):
CON 42 (+2)
LAB 26 (+2)
LD 16 (+1)
BXP 9 (-1)
ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):
CON 36 (+10)
LAB 28 (-1)
LD 14 (+6)
BXP 12 (-2)
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)0 -
And BXP..felix said:
Either all of these polls are crap or the Lds are on the slide.TheScreamingEagles said:Delta poll
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)1 -
Suspect there will be a You [What] Gov as well?Big_G_NorthWales said:Three VI polls in the Sunday papers
Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):
CON 42 (+2)
LAB 26 (+2)
LD 16 (+1)
BXP 9 (-1)
ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):
CON 36 (+10)
LAB 28 (-1)
LD 14 (+6)
BXP 12 (-2)
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=) 0 -
A bit complicated really. Went from Kings Cross to Newark where we were de-trained due to a faulty windscreen wiper of all things! Determined to get to Retford in time for the Gainsborough/Brigg/Barnetby train, I felt I had no choice but to get a cab! Then went from Retford via the Saturday-only train through Brigg. Took that all the way to Cleethorpes. By that time, the main line through Retford and Newark was closed for scheduled engineering, so decided to go to Doncaster, where I picked up the Azuma train which, due to its "bi-mode" diesel engines, was able to head back to London via Lincoln, avoiding Sleaford, rejoining the main line at Peterborough.Richard_Tyndall said:
Did you come through Ancaster on the Sleaford train? If so you went within about half a mile of me.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Train from Gainsborough Central to Barnetby black-biro'ed today, despite the shit weather and various engineering diversions. Also did the Sleaford avoider, and rode my first LNER Class 800 Azuma back to London!SandyRentool said:
And still an 8 year simple payback at that revenue level.Gallowgate said:FPT @Big_G_NorthWales I can only assume you got your PV installed quite a few years ago when the rates were high. There’s no way a 4kW domestic array will yield £800 a year now.
I have been through Ancaster, back in 2016, when I did Nottingham to Skegness.0 -
I suspect the "Get Brexit Done" message is working for Boris. People want it to be over and a Conservative majority government is the quickest way to do it.Big_G_NorthWales said:Three VI polls in the Sunday papers
Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):
CON 42 (+2)
LAB 26 (+2)
LD 16 (+1)
BXP 9 (-1)
ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):
CON 36 (+10)
LAB 28 (-1)
LD 14 (+6)
BXP 12 (-2)
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)0 -
ORB a bit lazy aren't they? Last poll in April? 0
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There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.0
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Deltapoll
Net approval
Boris +-2
Corbyn -43
Best for NHS
Boris 40%
Corbyn 34%
Best for Brexit
Boris 51%
Corbyn 26%
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Bah, all outliers, every single one of them!Big_G_NorthWales said:Three VI polls in the Sunday papers
Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):
CON 42 (+2)
LAB 26 (+2)
LD 16 (+1)
BXP 9 (-1)
ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):
CON 36 (+10)
LAB 28 (-1)
LD 14 (+6)
BXP 12 (-2)
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=) 0 -
Subsample. They even put in the article that it should be ignored.nunu2 said:https://mobile.twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1190734821842194432
SNP just ahead in Scotland?
SNP 27, Con 24, Lab 21
Pure fanciful bullshit. They should be ashamed of publishing that.
I'm sure HYUFD will be along to take it as gospel in a moment.1 -
The LibDems are duds at expectations management.Big_G_NorthWales said:Three VI polls in the Sunday papers
Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):
CON 42 (+2)
LAB 26 (+2)
LD 16 (+1)
BXP 9 (-1)
ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):
CON 36 (+10)
LAB 28 (-1)
LD 14 (+6)
BXP 12 (-2)
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)0 -
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 40% (+3)
LAB: 28% (+4)
LDEM: 14% (-5)
BREX: 11% (-)
via
@DeltapollUK
, 31 Oct - 02 Nov
LDs on zero at this rate of decline.
Tory Swinson really is useless0 -
Hmm the big unknown seems to be the tory share.GIN1138 said:
Suspect there will be a You [What] Gov as well?Big_G_NorthWales said:Three VI polls in the Sunday papers
Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):
CON 42 (+2)
LAB 26 (+2)
LD 16 (+1)
BXP 9 (-1)
ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):
CON 36 (+10)
LAB 28 (-1)
LD 14 (+6)
BXP 12 (-2)
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)
36 or 42, that's a big range.0 -
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It would if Labour weren't led by antisemites.justin124 said:There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.
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Look, until YouGov publish their MRP everything is just bollox random number generators.1
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A vintage year. I’ve been having nightmares about those bongs.Sunil_Prasannan said:
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BXP seem to be taking 2017 Labour voters more than Tory ones, of course efficiency of voter distribution will be key.Big_G_NorthWales said:Three VI polls in the Sunday papers
Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):
CON 42 (+2)
LAB 26 (+2)
LD 16 (+1)
BXP 9 (-1)
ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):
CON 36 (+10)
LAB 28 (-1)
LD 14 (+6)
BXP 12 (-2)
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)
In the past the Labour vote was very efficient, I suspect that this isn't as true as before, it's looking like they could rack up 700,000 votes in Scotland for almost no return. This will be a major drag on their UK wide numbers.0 -
From twitter
Tories: Deliver Brexit. Move on as a country.
Lib Dems: Cancel Brexit. Try to move on as a country.
Labour: Two more referendums and another renegotiation for the lolz.
Brexit Party: Renegotiate all over again to get the deal that Boris’ deal actually leads to anyway.
Pretty much where we are2 -
On those figures - which I am not inclined to trust - Labour will gain several seats from the SNP!Alistair said:
Subsample. They even put in the article that it should be ignored.nunu2 said:https://mobile.twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1190734821842194432
SNP just ahead in Scotland?
SNP 27, Con 24, Lab 21
Pure fanciful bullshit. They should be ashamed of publishing that.
I'm sure HYUFD will be along to take it as gospel in a moment.
Having checked the 2017 results, Labour would gain 8 seats from the SNP.0 -
Yes but the recent direction of travel is backwards. As you know.TheScreamingEagles said:
By my reckoning the Lib Dems have nearly doubled their vote share since 2017.felix said:
Either all of these polls are crap or the Lds are on the slide.TheScreamingEagles said:Delta poll
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)0 -
Me?rcs1000 said:I wonder which PB poster was pushing Buttigieg when he was available at more than 20-1?
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Labour: What's Brexit? For the many not the Jew.Big_G_NorthWales said:Tories: Deliver Brexit. Move on as a country.
Lib Dems: Cancel Brexit. Try to move on as a country.
Labour: Two more referendums and another renegotiation for the lolz.
Brexit Party: Renegotiate all over again to get the deal that Boris’ deal actually leads to anyway.0 -
Shadsy’s Vote Share Match Bet looks like a dead cert 25% return in just 5 weeks:
Lab 1/4
LD 11/40 -
All to be taken with a bucket of salt at this stage of a v volatile election.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Bah, all outliers, every single one of them!Big_G_NorthWales said:Three VI polls in the Sunday papers
Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):
CON 42 (+2)
LAB 26 (+2)
LD 16 (+1)
BXP 9 (-1)
ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):
CON 36 (+10)
LAB 28 (-1)
LD 14 (+6)
BXP 12 (-2)
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)0 -
Indeed so - there is no sign at all of momentum.felix said:
Yes but the recent direction of travel is backwards. As you know.TheScreamingEagles said:
By my reckoning the Lib Dems have nearly doubled their vote share since 2017.felix said:
Either all of these polls are crap or the Lds are on the slide.TheScreamingEagles said:Delta poll
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)0 -
I'm on at 110.MikeSmithson said:
My best Buttigieg bet was at 40/1 in late Marchrcs1000 said:
Yep. She mentioned him when he was more than 100-1MarqueeMark said:
As the odds weren't 50/1, presumably not your dad?rcs1000 said:I wonder which PB poster was pushing Buttigieg when he was available at more than 20-1?
Didn't Cyclefree's son big him up very early on?
Big surprise could be coming in Iowa.0 -
Terrible numbers for Jezza. Really dreadful!Big_G_NorthWales said:Deltapoll
Net approval
Boris +-2
Corbyn -43
Best for NHS
Boris 40%
Corbyn 34%
Best for Brexit
Boris 51%
Corbyn 26%0 -
Good decision.Pulpstar said:
His odds went out recently during the Warren surge. I topped up thenMikeSmithson said:
My best Buttigieg bet was at 40/1 in late Marchrcs1000 said:
Yep. She mentioned him when he was more than 100-1MarqueeMark said:
As the odds weren't 50/1, presumably not your dad?rcs1000 said:I wonder which PB poster was pushing Buttigieg when he was available at more than 20-1?
Didn't Cyclefree's son big him up very early on?
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Buttigieg as POTUS would be my biggest ever payout by a long chalk.0
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It will certainly not be over when the Deal is passed. The serious negotiations will be about to begin.dodrade said:
I suspect the "Get Brexit Done" message is working for Boris. People want it to be over and a Conservative majority government is the quickest way to do it.Big_G_NorthWales said:Three VI polls in the Sunday papers
Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):
CON 42 (+2)
LAB 26 (+2)
LD 16 (+1)
BXP 9 (-1)
ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):
CON 36 (+10)
LAB 28 (-1)
LD 14 (+6)
BXP 12 (-2)
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)0 -
Whose the 26% who think he’s best for brexit?GIN1138 said:
Terrible numbers for Jezza. Really dreadful!Big_G_NorthWales said:Deltapoll
Net approval
Boris +-2
Corbyn -43
Best for NHS
Boris 40%
Corbyn 34%
Best for Brexit
Boris 51%
Corbyn 26%
Actually, what does that even mean, best for brexit?0 -
I’m sure they are working away in the background...justin124 said:
Indeed so - there is no sign at all of momentum.felix said:
Yes but the recent direction of travel is backwards. As you know.TheScreamingEagles said:
By my reckoning the Lib Dems have nearly doubled their vote share since 2017.felix said:
Either all of these polls are crap or the Lds are on the slide.TheScreamingEagles said:Delta poll
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)0 -
Naught but Tory propaganda!GIN1138 said:
Terrible numbers for Jezza. Really dreadful!Big_G_NorthWales said:Deltapoll
Net approval
Boris +-2
Corbyn -43
Best for NHS
Boris 40%
Corbyn 34%
Best for Brexit
Boris 51%
Corbyn 26%0 -
"Beyond the words, though, the speech notably highlighted the newfound power for Buttigieg's growing organization in Iowa. As the South Bend, Indiana, mayor spoke on Friday night, hundreds of Buttigieg's supporters sporting yellow shirts emblazoned with "PETE" roared during lulls in the speech. Some had block lettering that read "Boot Edge Edge."
Here in Iowa, Buttigieg's campaign is ascendant..."
https://www.abc57.com/news/pete-buttigieg-touts-rising-organizing-power-in-optimistic-iowa-speech0 -
Pity they missed the obvious pun... "All I want for Crispmas....."Philip_Thompson said:
I will not bother taking off my hat or coat....
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Labour was actually on 22 in the subsample.justin124 said:
On those figures - which I am not inclined to trust - Labour will gain several seats from the SNP!Alistair said:
Subsample. They even put in the article that it should be ignored.nunu2 said:https://mobile.twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1190734821842194432
SNP just ahead in Scotland?
SNP 27, Con 24, Lab 21
Pure fanciful bullshit. They should be ashamed of publishing that.
I'm sure HYUFD will be along to take it as gospel in a moment.
Having checked the 2017 results, Labour would gain 8 seats from the SNP.0 -
Doubtless that is so - but it makes the repeated claims of big gains in London appear pretty fanciful!Fysics_Teacher said:
I’m sure they are working away in the background...justin124 said:
Indeed so - there is no sign at all of momentum.felix said:
Yes but the recent direction of travel is backwards. As you know.TheScreamingEagles said:
By my reckoning the Lib Dems have nearly doubled their vote share since 2017.felix said:
Either all of these polls are crap or the Lds are on the slide.TheScreamingEagles said:Delta poll
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)0 -
So is that up on the -60 he had earlier, or is it a different company?Big_G_NorthWales said:Deltapoll
Net approval
Boris +-2
Corbyn -43
Best for NHS
Boris 40%
Corbyn 34%
Best for Brexit
Boris 51%
Corbyn 26%0 -
Warren and Buttigieg Gain Momentum in Iowa Democratic Race
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/02/us/politics/Iowa-buttigieg-warren.html0 -
Their one pollster finding ten representative people to interview each weekday, spread around the country, is actually working flat out.Sunil_Prasannan said:ORB a bit lazy aren't they? Last poll in April?
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Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the leadjustin124 said:There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.
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I really do not know to be honestFysics_Teacher said:
So is that up on the -60 he had earlier, or is it a different company?Big_G_NorthWales said:Deltapoll
Net approval
Boris +-2
Corbyn -43
Best for NHS
Boris 40%
Corbyn 34%
Best for Brexit
Boris 51%
Corbyn 26%
Comparing polls since the election to those before the lib dems are the losers so far0 -
Ok - if the figures were SNP 27 Con 24 Lab 22 , it implies a 2.5% swing from SNP to Labour compared with 2017. Labour would gain 9 seats there on that basis.Alistair said:
Labour was actually on 22 in the subsample.justin124 said:
On those figures - which I am not inclined to trust - Labour will gain several seats from the SNP!Alistair said:
Subsample. They even put in the article that it should be ignored.nunu2 said:https://mobile.twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1190734821842194432
SNP just ahead in Scotland?
SNP 27, Con 24, Lab 21
Pure fanciful bullshit. They should be ashamed of publishing that.
I'm sure HYUFD will be along to take it as gospel in a moment.
Having checked the 2017 results, Labour would gain 8 seats from the SNP.
However, I remain very wary of subsamples - good or bad!0 -
But is it volatile. Poll after poll show 40% want brexit wrangling out their lives with a Boris win. Why shouldn’t this be it, all up to the glorious 12th?rottenborough said:
All to be taken with a bucket of salt at this stage of a v volatile election.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Bah, all outliers, every single one of them!Big_G_NorthWales said:Three VI polls in the Sunday papers
Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):
CON 42 (+2)
LAB 26 (+2)
LD 16 (+1)
BXP 9 (-1)
ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):
CON 36 (+10)
LAB 28 (-1)
LD 14 (+6)
BXP 12 (-2)
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)0 -
Depends on labour's range as wellnunu2 said:
Hmm the big unknown seems to be the tory share.GIN1138 said:
Suspect there will be a You [What] Gov as well?Big_G_NorthWales said:Three VI polls in the Sunday papers
Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):
CON 42 (+2)
LAB 26 (+2)
LD 16 (+1)
BXP 9 (-1)
ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):
CON 36 (+10)
LAB 28 (-1)
LD 14 (+6)
BXP 12 (-2)
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):
CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)
36 or 42, that's a big range.0 -
Delta does show a slight fall in the Tory lead from 13% to 12%.viewcode said:
Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the leadjustin124 said:There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.
At the same point in the 2017 campaign , Opinium reported a 17% Tory lead with ORB putting them 11% ahead.
For different reasons. I suspect that both the Tory and Labour camps will be quite satisfied tonight . The LDs will have taken a knock.0 -
Let’s not demoralise Justin before the end of the first week. Where’s the sport in that.viewcode said:
Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the leadjustin124 said:There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.
Keep telling yourself Justin, All oppositions recover from bad polls, it’s always governments who die in the end.
Hang in till at least last weekend before polling hoping something miraculous will turn up.
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Lib Dems in all these CON LAB marginals looking a bit like May in Leeds East 2017 to me.0
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Those attempts to downplay the anti semitism problem have got off to a bad start
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/02/labour-suspends-art-critic-standing-parliamentary-candidate/0 -
The latest New Hampshire poll has him in double digits. He's got the big mo.Foxy said:Mayor Pete polling in the last 3 national polls at 2%, 4% and 8%, with Warren at 3 times that score:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/
The only polling that is close is the Iowa ones, but there Warren is polling better. In the other early contests Buttigeig is not in the running.
Warren certainly has detailed plans and policies vulnerable to fisking, while Buttigeig specialises in vague waffle, but how long is that sustainable?1 -
Kinda curious to see poll after poll implying a crushing Bozo victory, yet the spreads are stuck on 320.
Wondering perhaps if the betting markets are fighting the last war, assuming a repeat.0 -
Similarly - if you want to avoid a marxist government tolerant of anti semites vote blue to stop very, very red.viewcode said:
Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the leadjustin124 said:There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.
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All I want for crispmas is you.Beibheirli_C said:
Pity they missed the obvious pun... "All I want for Crispmas....."Philip_Thompson said:
I will not bother taking off my hat or coat....
How are you, warm in that coat?0 -
Look at the leader ratings and now Boris is ahead on the NHS by 6justin124 said:
Delta does show a slight fall in the Tory lead from 13% to 12%.viewcode said:
Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the leadjustin124 said:There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.
At the same point in the 2017 campaign , Opinium reported a 17% Tory lead with ORB putting them 11% ahead.
And do not even think on who is most trusted on brexit
In Scotland I do believe Nicola has made a big mistake because she has united the union vote sgainst her0 -
I think that number is from the latest Ipsos Mori poll, so probably not best to compare it directly to the the number from the Delta poll.Fysics_Teacher said:
So is that up on the -60 he had earlier, or is it a different company?Big_G_NorthWales said:Deltapoll
Net approval
Boris +-2
Corbyn -43
Best for NHS
Boris 40%
Corbyn 34%
Best for Brexit
Boris 51%
Corbyn 26%0
