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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s fan club is far too confident: 10 reasons why 2019 ma

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s fan club is far too confident: 10 reasons why 2019 may not be 2017-part-2

This is not a prediction as such. There are plenty of counter-arguments to the points I’m about to make, some of which will almost certainly turn out to be true. It would be equally possible to write an article with 10 reasons why the Tory lead may well slide again. All the same, to keep things simple, let’s keep the focus on this side of the equation (not least because that provides a consistent baseline against which we can later argue).

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    On topic in a looking glass way. The Workington poll could make Tories complacent, on just 500 polled a quarter of which said undecided.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    edited November 2019
    Good article, obviously events can happen and any result is possible, but I don't see much light at the end of the tunnel for Labour.

    Brexit is the definitive issues of our times, and their answer of "umm, yeah, sort of, maybe...." isn't going to appeal to anyone. They needed to actually come out for something and have a position, there is no more road to kick the can down.

    Squeezed from all sides, it could go very badly and frankly it deserves to.

    (I consistently voted labour between 1987 and 2005)
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    How much of a capture for Swinson is Parris?

    If Ken Clarke and Matthew Parris are not voting Conservative at this election maybe in all the focus on Tory, Labour, Brexit Party in northern towns we are missing the real sea change of the 2019 election?
  • I'm shuddering at being reminded of the 2017 Lib Dem campaign. How on earth we got away with it (in terms of not being wiped out) I'll never know. Hopefully we'll have Tim Farron locked away in a cupboard somewhere this time. :)
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    edited November 2019
    I don’t think the Conservatives (can we still call them that?) are complacent at all, HS2 and Fracking cancelled, bigger splurge on NHS, Working poor and police than Labour can find the money for, AND tax cuts, they are throwing the kitchen sink at it.

    One downside of over promising to get an election is under delivering the other side of it. Where is all the money coming from to pay for all of this whilst smoothing brexit change at same time?

    This is my point, do all this to prevent a corbynista government? It could guarantee a corbynista government definitely happens, next time.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    egg said:

    How much of a capture for Swinson is Parris?

    What group of voters do you think he's going to influence?

    Basically no one is my opinion.
  • It's a great piece by David Herdson. With so much at stake and with the Tories being so extreme and my only acessible marginals being Lab/Con I begun to fret about a once in a lifetime bout of tactical activism. But I just can't do it and this article summarises why. We're in this mess because the Corbyn project is both poisonous and ineptly managed. I can't be blackmailed into supporting it even to prevent a greater evil.

    Only this evening I came across an extraordinary thread from a Labour member in an old stamping ground explaining why he wouldn't campaign for the Labour PPC in his hyper marginal. The background of the candidate on both antisemitism and the far left was jaw dropping yet now sadly normal. Ditto this week's extraordinary interventions from the JLM and Rabbi Jonathan Romaine.

    It's a deeply bleak moment that both governing parties are in this state.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938
    egg said:

    On topic in a looking glass way. The Workington poll could make Tories complacent, on just 500 polled a quarter of which said undecided.

    I can assure you, having been out in the weather we have been out in recently, there is zero chance the Tories are going to be complacent.

    And talking of complacent - those quarter who are undecideds will probably not decide. They'll end up not voting at all. There's a reason you have sub-75% turnouts....

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938
    edited November 2019
    egg said:

    How much of a capture for Swinson is Parris?

    If Ken Clarke and Matthew Parris are not voting Conservative at this election maybe in all the focus on Tory, Labour, Brexit Party in northern towns we are missing the real sea change of the 2019 election?

    The real sea-change - what, that those driven mad by Brexit have gone to the LibDems?

    Oh, and Ken Clarke is voting for his Tory successor.

    I'll not be surprised if the Tories poll close to their 2017 number in the end. The sea-change will be how far Labour have fallen from theirs.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938
    egg said:

    I don’t think the Conservatives (can we still call them that?) are complacent at all, HS2 and Fracking cancelled, bigger splurge on NHS, Working poor and police than Labour can find the money for, AND tax cuts, they are throwing the kitchen sink at it.

    One downside of over promising to get an election is under delivering the other side of it. Where is all the money coming from to pay for all of this whilst smoothing brexit change at same time?

    This is my point, do all this to prevent a corbynista government? It could guarantee a corbynista government definitely happens, next time.

    If Boris pulls off a majority, there is no Corbyn next time. If Workington is around the mid-point of their losses, there'll be very few Corbynistas left to stick their head above the parapet afterwards. 2019 may not signify the rise of the Blairites, but as Corbyn trashes the brand there'll need to be a new flavour of -ites, seeing that unalloyed class war is no longer the touchstone for the Labour Party.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,879
    edited November 2019
    I think the key difference this time will be with the Tory campaign. Labour were able to run a populist left wing campaign last time, with a flurry of spending commitments being drip fed to the press every few days. They were able to promise a lot without much challenge. This time round the Tories already seem a lot more on the ball with policies of their own already out there (tax cuts, no fracking, end rail franchising) and I'm sure there'll be more to come. Boris will run a positive, optimistic campaign.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938
    Wide awake and posting because damn it, it's windy out there in south Devon right now!
  • Re the Workington Poll - sadly it seems highly credible. 1. The local Tories have been incredibly cocky about the seat for several months now. Just as interestingly they've got less and less cocky about Westmorland and Lonsdale. 2. Think Tanks don't create memes like ' Workington Man ' for no reason. It creates huge free coverage from lazy London journalists and they'd obviously done private polling.

    If the Survation figures for Workington are remotely correct you'd expect the Tories to hold neighbouring Copeland comfortably ( won in the 2017 By-election for the first time in 80 years ) and the third Cumbrian coastal seat of Barrow-in-Furness which they haven't won since 1983.

    We'll see of course, just one poll, early days, single seats are difficult to poll etc etc. But they are really grim numbers.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,311

    I'm shuddering at being reminded of the 2017 Lib Dem campaign. How on earth we got away with it (in terms of not being wiped out) I'll never know. Hopefully we'll have Tim Farron locked away in a cupboard somewhere this time. :)

    I reckon Farron will be very lucky to hang on to his seat this time....it was tight last time IIRC.
  • I'm shuddering at being reminded of the 2017 Lib Dem campaign. How on earth we got away with it (in terms of not being wiped out) I'll never know. Hopefully we'll have Tim Farron locked away in a cupboard somewhere this time. :)

    I reckon Farron will be very lucky to hang on to his seat this time....it was tight last time IIRC.
    Majority of 777... I know a few of my fellow Lib Dem activists who would consider him losing to be a Lib Dem gain.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,609
    Good article. Reason 11... What is is Corbyn doing in that photo!?

    Strategy wise I think Labour focusing on inequality is their best bet. Corbyn isn't going to do well from talking about Brexit.
  • Boris might be the key. The man has charisma in spades, so people will listen. Boris will win provided people do not listen so closely as to realise much of his programme is incoherent bluster.

    The LibDems, more than the Conservatives, surprisingly, seem to be up for a single-issue election. This might be a mistake. Irrespective of that, they might lose seats however well they poll, simply because, of their 21 MPs, only 12 were elected as Liberal Democrats.
  • Beto O'Rourke's withdrawal helps ... no idea. He did not seem to stand for anything very much (hi, Mayor Pete fans). The question is not who inherits Beto's meagre support, which is probably all of them, but who else will pull out before the next debate three weeks from now on 20/11.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,311

    Boris might be the key. The man has charisma in spades, so people will listen. Boris will win provided people do not listen so closely as to realise much of his programme is incoherent bluster.

    The LibDems, more than the Conservatives, surprisingly, seem to be up for a single-issue election. This might be a mistake. Irrespective of that, they might lose seats however well they poll, simply because, of their 21 MPs, only 12 were elected as Liberal Democrats.

    Boris's charisma only goes so far.....to his fans it is a real asset to those who are not his fans he can come across as an overweight, pompous, overprivileged southern Tory - I think he will struggle with female voters (TM did better there) and with Scottish and Northern voters. I agree about your Lib Dem point they are in danger of being a single issue vote.....
  • I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such a result appears all too possible were things to go seriously pear-shaped for the Blue Team over the next 6 weeks, just as they did last time out.
    For those of us in the betting fraternity, it would be good if pearls of wisdom such as these could be highlighted in bold with a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631
    @egg

    HS2 has not been cancelled.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,609

    I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such a result appears all too possible were things to go seriously pear-shaped for the Blue Team over the next 6 weeks, just as they did last time out.
    For those of us in the betting fraternity, it would be good if pearls of wisdom such as these could be highlighted in bold with a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.

    That looks an excellent bet to me.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,609

    Beto O'Rourke's withdrawal helps ... no idea. He did not seem to stand for anything very much (hi, Mayor Pete fans). The question is not who inherits Beto's meagre support, which is probably all of them, but who else will pull out before the next debate three weeks from now on 20/11.
    Maybe help his fellow Texan, Julian Castro who is struggling to survive.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,920
    ydoethur said:

    @egg

    HS2 has not been cancelled.

    HS2 is a Schrodinger’s trainset. If you want to believe it’s cancelled then it’s cancelled. If you want to be believe it’s still happening then it’s still happening.

  • ydoethur said:

    @egg

    HS2 has not been cancelled.

    Indeed

    I reckon reverse S will be what we end up with, the Manchester to Leeds section being part of NPR budget so HS2 costs come right down and the government can claim (rightly) to be investing in the North

    That's my ill-informed guess anyway.
  • moonshine said:

    ydoethur said:

    @egg

    HS2 has not been cancelled.

    HS2 is a Schrodinger’s trainset. If you want to believe it’s cancelled then it’s cancelled. If you want to be believe it’s still happening then it’s still happening.

    We should find out quite soon after the election.
  • rkrkrk said:

    I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such a result appears all too possible were things to go seriously pear-shaped for the Blue Team over the next 6 weeks, just as they did last time out.
    For those of us in the betting fraternity, it would be good if pearls of wisdom such as these could be highlighted in bold with a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.

    That looks an excellent bet to me.
    Especially so when one compares it with the equivalent market available on the Betfair Exchange, which offers Tory seats in 10 seats tranches currently on offer as follows:

    250-259 .... 32
    260-269 .... 32
    270-279 .... 20
    289-289 .... 17
    290-299 .... 12.5

    Back all five of the above tranches so as to equalise one's returns and the resulting winning odds, net of Betfair's 5% commission, is 3.83 ... way, way behind Ladbrokes' 5.75, as above, for the same bet.
  • ManchesterKurtManchesterKurt Posts: 795
    edited November 2019
    A thought

    If Tories win a stonking majority does the importance of the ERG diminish leaving Johnson more opportunity to agree a much closer relationship with Europe long term than with a small majority?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,372

    egg said:

    How much of a capture for Swinson is Parris?

    What group of voters do you think he's going to influence?

    Basically no one is my opinion.
    What is a Matthew Parris?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631

    moonshine said:

    ydoethur said:

    @egg

    HS2 has not been cancelled.

    HS2 is a Schrodinger’s trainset. If you want to believe it’s cancelled then it’s cancelled. If you want to be believe it’s still happening then it’s still happening.

    We should find out quite soon after the election.
    Originally the Oakervee Review was due to be published a fortnight Monday. However, I am guessing that there will now be a delay into the New Year. Nobody is going to want an argument about this in an election campaign!

    However, it is difficult for a very large number of reasons to see anything major being changed. The Leeds route might be delayed, but ultimately the situation from Birmingham to London is (a) at crisis point in terms of capacity and (b) the new lines are already under construction, and the lines into Curzon Street and Euston pretty much have to go ahead whether high speed or not. In which case, why not build the rest (which is a minority of the actual cost) too?

    But there are for some reason a lot of people - weirdly, many of them totally unaffected either way - who have made this totemic, so it isn’t something either Johnson or Corbyn will want to discuss while grubbing, oops, campaigning for votes.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,372

    Boris might be the key. The man has charisma in spades, so people will listen. Boris will win provided people do not listen so closely as to realise much of his programme is incoherent bluster.

    The LibDems, more than the Conservatives, surprisingly, seem to be up for a single-issue election. This might be a mistake. Irrespective of that, they might lose seats however well they poll, simply because, of their 21 MPs, only 12 were elected as Liberal Democrats.

    Given many of them are not standing again, or were previously elected in incredibly unpromising seats, I don't think you should think of the LibDems as having 21 seats. They're at 12. They'll probably get into the 20s, but might lose seats, or have a bumper night. We'll know in about a month.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,372
    rkrkrk said:

    Beto O'Rourke's withdrawal helps ... no idea. He did not seem to stand for anything very much (hi, Mayor Pete fans). The question is not who inherits Beto's meagre support, which is probably all of them, but who else will pull out before the next debate three weeks from now on 20/11.
    Maybe help his fellow Texan, Julian Castro who is struggling to survive.
    There are four candidates in this race: Warren, Buttigieg, and two others whose names I forget.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453
    edited November 2019
    There is much that is true in the header, though of course such triumphalism was par for the course at this point of the 2017 GE.

    Corbyn's Labour has been pathetic over Brexit and has alienated a lot of Remainers, and he personally is to blame for this. A fair number of the PLP were more sound on the subject, but Corbyn has never backed them. Labour simply cannot be trusted on the issue of the day.

    On the other hand, while May didn't appeal to me, her rather dull and dutiful personality and integrity were quite major pluses with a lot of voters.

    Johnson is a different kettle of fish. No one can defend his low character, serial adultery, proven mendaciousness, disloyalty and poor judgement in choice of advisor. Fun to have a boozy dinner in a restaurant with, but the sort who dodges his share of the bill when settling up.

    I expect he will win and prove to be a disastrous PM. The polls will turn very quickly against him, but losing over 50 opposition seats via Scottish independence will be an additional hill for the English and Welsh opposition to climb.
  • A thought

    If Tories win a stonking majority does the importance of the ERG diminish leaving Johnson more opportunity to agree a much closer relationship with Europe long term than with a small majority?

    Probably not, because the new intake are likely to be exceptionally rabid.
  • ydoethur said:

    moonshine said:

    ydoethur said:

    @egg

    HS2 has not been cancelled.

    HS2 is a Schrodinger’s trainset. If you want to believe it’s cancelled then it’s cancelled. If you want to be believe it’s still happening then it’s still happening.

    We should find out quite soon after the election.
    Originally the Oakervee Review was due to be published a fortnight Monday. However, I am guessing that there will now be a delay into the New Year. Nobody is going to want an argument about this in an election campaign!

    However, it is difficult for a very large number of reasons to see anything major being changed. The Leeds route might be delayed, but ultimately the situation from Birmingham to London is (a) at crisis point in terms of capacity and (b) the new lines are already under construction, and the lines into Curzon Street and Euston pretty much have to go ahead whether high speed or not. In which case, why not build the rest (which is a minority of the actual cost) too?

    But there are for some reason a lot of people - weirdly, many of them totally unaffected either way - who have made this totemic, so it isn’t something either Johnson or Corbyn will want to discuss while grubbing, oops, campaigning for votes.
    and if you need to build a new railway, why not build it to European gauge so double decker can run and build to high speed standard as the cot difference I marginal and it make perfect sense to separate slow and fast services on the railway.

    If I had to put money on it there will be timetable changes, elements moved to NPR but yes, ultimately I cannot imagine it won't eventually get built in full, no doubt one day continuing onwards to Scotland.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631
    Foxy said:

    Johnson is a different kettle of fish. No one can defend his low character, serial adultery, proven mendaciousness, disloyalty and poor judgement in choice of advisor. Fun to have a boozy dinner in a restaurant with, but the sort who dodges his share of the bill when settling up.

    All of which is undeniably true, and if Labour were led by Hilary Benn would probably be a killer argument.

    But they are also true of Corbyn, except he probably wouldn’t be much fun as a dinner guest because he would drone on about the evils of factory farming in the 1960s.

    So unfortunately unless Swinson has a result that makes 1931 look routine, we’re screwed.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453
    moonshine said:

    ydoethur said:

    @egg

    HS2 has not been cancelled.

    HS2 is a Schrodinger’s trainset. If you want to believe it’s cancelled then it’s cancelled. If you want to be believe it’s still happening then it’s still happening.

    Yes, this is a prime example of BoZo's mendaciousness. Anyone gullible enough to believe a word that he says is going to get a shafting. BoZo can sniff an easy mark a mile off.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631
    edited November 2019

    and if you need to build a new railway, why not build it to European gauge so double decker can run and build to high speed standard as the cot difference I marginal and it make perfect sense to separate slow and fast services on the railway.

    If I had to put money on it there will be timetable changes, elements moved to NPR but yes, ultimately I cannot imagine it won't eventually get built in full, no doubt one day continuing onwards to Scotland.

    First of all, you mean loading gauge, not gauge.

    Secondly, you are unfortunately wrong. I once thought the same thing but there are two very good arguments against it. First of all, double decker trains are incredibly slow to load and unload because of the huge number of people on them. That reduces capacity because it means longer station stops. Also, such trains tend to be slow and bulky and unlike the proposed HS2 units, would be unable to operate on non-HS lines (the current idea is that north of Manchester, where capacity is less of a problem, the expresses will run on the old metals to Scotland).

    Secondly, the whole raison d’etre for HS2 is that it does NOT make sense for there to be fast and slow trains on the same tracks. Think about how long a fast train takes to stop, how many stations it misses, how many other slower trains it will therefore be passing. And if it can’t pass a slower train it is, by definition, not high speed.

    Taking non-stop expresses off the WCML will have a huge effect on the number of local and freight trains that can use it instead. I believe it’s three pathways for these for every one express. That’s why the line is designed to be high speed. That’s what makes sense.

    So I don’t expect Oakervee to recommend either of those changes.

    But yes, ultimately I think the intention is for it to get to Scotland when the demand is shown to be there.

    Edit - apologies, ignore point two, I misread your comment. Too early in the morning!
  • A thought

    If Tories win a stonking majority does the importance of the ERG diminish leaving Johnson more opportunity to agree a much closer relationship with Europe long term than with a small majority?

    Hold that thought. It depends who the new MPs are.

    Boris pulled right-wingers like Priti and ERG gurus like JRM and (sort of) Raab into the Cabinet, which was enough to convince the average backbench Eurobore.

    The new recruits might have more informed views on Europe, or they might not. Probably people with more capacity for hard work will no doubt already be compiling and analysing candidates in likely constituencies.
  • A thought

    If Tories win a stonking majority does the importance of the ERG diminish leaving Johnson more opportunity to agree a much closer relationship with Europe long term than with a small majority?

    I think the nature of the Faustian pact that Johnson has struck with the ERG means that the two are now symbiotically linked. He can no more survive cutting them adrift in such a way than I could survive scooping out my heart.
  • ManchesterKurtManchesterKurt Posts: 795
    edited November 2019
    ydoethur said:

    and if you need to build a new railway, why not build it to European gauge so double decker can run and build to high speed standard as the cot difference I marginal and it make perfect sense to separate slow and fast services on the railway.

    If I had to put money on it there will be timetable changes, elements moved to NPR but yes, ultimately I cannot imagine it won't eventually get built in full, no doubt one day continuing onwards to Scotland.

    First of all, you mean loading gauge, not gauge.

    Secondly, you are unfortunately wrong. I once thought the same thing but there are two very good arguments against it. First of all, double decker trains are incredibly slow to load and unload because of the huge number of people on them. That reduces capacity because it means longer station stops. Also, such trains tend to be slow and bulky and unlike the proposed HS2 units, would be unable to operate on non-HS lines (the current idea is that north of Manchester, where capacity is less of a problem, the expresses will run on the old metals to Scotland).

    Secondly, the whole raison d’etre for HS2 is that it does NOT make sense for there to be fast and slow trains on the same tracks. Think about how long a fast train takes to stop, how many stations it misses, how many other slower trains it will therefore be passing. And if it can’t pass a slower train it is, by definition, not high speed.

    Taking non-stop expresses off the WCML will have a huge effect on the number of local and freight trains that can use it instead. I believe it’s three pathways for these for every one express. That’s why the line is designed to be high speed. That’s what makes sense.

    So I don’t expect Oakervee to recommend either of those changes.

    But yes, ultimately I think the intention is for it to get to Scotland when the demand is shown to be there.
    I think we are saying the same thing, I just wrote my post very badly.

    I think HS2 will be delivered as a high speed network, yes with European loading gauge, I do not expect any slower trains as it would take away from the capacity in a very negative manner.

    The point about double deckers was more about the capacity that trains such as the TGV Duplex (320km/h capable) can add on such a line in terms of number of seats.

    I agree, make the WCML (along with the ECML and MML) slower lines for stopper and freight, make HS2 purely for fast, inter city connectivity.
  • A thought

    If Tories win a stonking majority does the importance of the ERG diminish leaving Johnson more opportunity to agree a much closer relationship with Europe long term than with a small majority?

    A stonking majority gives him the opportunity to do as he pleases. What pleases him is whatever makes him popular.

    The rest is easy to figure.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,646
    rcs1000 said:

    egg said:

    How much of a capture for Swinson is Parris?

    What group of voters do you think he's going to influence?

    Basically no one is my opinion.
    What is a Matthew Parris?
    It's like a Lord Adonis but with slightly less self importance
  • I agree with every one of David's points. Why then are the Conservatives not 30 points ahead?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631

    ydoethur said:

    and if you need to build a new railway, why not build it to European gauge so double decker can run and build to high speed standard as the cot difference I marginal and it make perfect sense to separate slow and fast services on the railway.

    If I had to put money on it there will be timetable changes, elements moved to NPR but yes, ultimately I cannot imagine it won't eventually get built in full, no doubt one day continuing onwards to Scotland.

    First of all, you mean loading gauge, not gauge.

    Secondly, you are unfortunately wrong. I once thought the same thing but there are two very good arguments against it. First of all, double decker trains are incredibly slow to load and unload because of the huge number of people on them. That reduces capacity because it means longer station stops. Also, such trains tend to be slow and bulky and unlike the proposed HS2 units, would be unable to operate on non-HS lines (the current idea is that north of Manchester, where capacity is less of a problem, the expresses will run on the old metals to Scotland).

    Secondly, the whole raison d’etre for HS2 is that it does NOT make sense for there to be fast and slow trains on the same tracks. Think about how long a fast train takes to stop, how many stations it misses, how many other slower trains it will therefore be passing. And if it can’t pass a slower train it is, by definition, not high speed.

    Taking non-stop expresses off the WCML will have a huge effect on the number of local and freight trains that can use it instead. I believe it’s three pathways for these for every one express. That’s why the line is designed to be high speed. That’s what makes sense.

    So I don’t expect Oakervee to recommend either of those changes.

    But yes, ultimately I think the intention is for it to get to Scotland when the demand is shown to be there.
    I think we are saying the same thing, I just wrote my post very badly.

    I think HS2 will be delivered as a high speed network, yes with European loading gauge, I do not expect any slower trains as it would take away from the capacity in a very negative manner.

    The point about double deckers was more about the capacity that trains such as the TGV Duplex (320km/h capable) can add on such a line in terms of number of seats.

    I agree, make the WCML (along with the ECML and MML) slower lines for stopper and freight, make HS2 purely for fast, inter city connectivity.
    I don’t think it was your writing, it was my reading of it! We were saying exactly the same thing about high speed trains. Apology has been posted upthread.

    I think the intended interchangeability of units probably scuppers double deckers for the moment, however.
  • felixfelix Posts: 14,393
    If the Tories win the majority will be modest I suspect. Much depends on the south and how much theLD surge amounts to. If it takes as much from Labour as the Tories they will be home and dry. ATM that looks possible. Time will tell.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,372
    Foxy said:

    I expect he will win and prove to be a disastrous PM. The polls will turn very quickly against him, but losing over 50 opposition seats via Scottish independence will be an additional hill for the English and Welsh opposition to climb.

    I'm afraid to say that I agree with you.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,609

    rkrkrk said:

    I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such a result appears all too possible were things to go seriously pear-shaped for the Blue Team over the next 6 weeks, just as they did last time out.
    For those of us in the betting fraternity, it would be good if pearls of wisdom such as these could be highlighted in bold with a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.

    That looks an excellent bet to me.
    Especially so when one compares it with the equivalent market available on the Betfair Exchange, which offers Tory seats in 10 seats tranches currently on offer as follows:

    250-259 .... 32
    260-269 .... 32
    270-279 .... 20
    289-289 .... 17
    290-299 .... 12.5

    Back all five of the above tranches so as to equalise one's returns and the resulting winning odds, net of Betfair's 5% commission, is 3.83 ... way, way behind Ladbrokes' 5.75, as above, for the same bet.
    I had a look to see if I could replicate it through Betfair and struggled.
    Btw, Betfair has a 2% commission option now. Well worth switching.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631

    I agree with every one of David's points. Why then are the Conservatives not 30 points ahead?

    See Foxy’s post about Johnson upthread...
  • @YellowSubmarine

    Yes, the Workington poll does look credible. It suggests strongly that Labour Leave voters are prepared to abandon Labour over Brexit.

    The only crumb of comfort for opponents of Brexit is that the poll implies equal and opposite movements elsewhere but that's pretty cold comfort.
  • rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such a result appears all too possible were things to go seriously pear-shaped for the Blue Team over the next 6 weeks, just as they did last time out.
    For those of us in the betting fraternity, it would be good if pearls of wisdom such as these could be highlighted in bold with a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.

    That looks an excellent bet to me.
    Especially so when one compares it with the equivalent market available on the Betfair Exchange, which offers Tory seats in 10 seats tranches currently on offer as follows:

    250-259 .... 32
    260-269 .... 32
    270-279 .... 20
    289-289 .... 17
    290-299 .... 12.5

    Back all five of the above tranches so as to equalise one's returns and the resulting winning odds, net of Betfair's 5% commission, is 3.83 ... way, way behind Ladbrokes' 5.75, as above, for the same bet.
    I had a look to see if I could replicate it through Betfair and struggled.
    Btw, Betfair has a 2% commission option now. Well worth switching.
    Careful: Betfair has a 2% commission rate if you've opted to take the 2% deal. Otherwise you could be paying 8%.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938

    I agree with every one of David's points. Why then are the Conservatives not 30 points ahead?

    Patience....

    Being serious, there will always be an ant-Tory majority in the electorate. Ironically, I reckon May came close to delivering the Tory ceiling last time. It was why the argument about keeping her majority under control proved so effective for Labour - even though Labour was led by Corbyn.

    There is still an anti-Tory majority in the electorate. For the Tories to be 30 points head would require something like Con 48 Labour 18 LibDems 16 Brexit 8 others 10.

    Unlikely.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938
    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Beto O'Rourke's withdrawal helps ... no idea. He did not seem to stand for anything very much (hi, Mayor Pete fans). The question is not who inherits Beto's meagre support, which is probably all of them, but who else will pull out before the next debate three weeks from now on 20/11.
    Maybe help his fellow Texan, Julian Castro who is struggling to survive.
    There are four candidates in this race: Warren, Buttigieg, and two others whose names I forget.
    They forget their own names too. Bless....
  • felixfelix Posts: 14,393

    @YellowSubmarine

    Yes, the Workington poll does look credible. It suggests strongly that Labour Leave voters are prepared to abandon Labour over Brexit.

    The only crumb of comfort for opponents of Brexit is that the poll implies equal and opposite movements elsewhere but that's pretty cold comfort.

    I'm not sure it does. The LD surge - if it happens- could harm Labour and Tory pretty evenly and make the Tory net seat loss rather less. I'm afraid at this point Corbyn is the weakest link. I will vote LD - I am NOT a fan at all - purely because in my seat they could damage Labour. I'm not alone I suspect.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such a result appears all too possible were things to go seriously pear-shaped for the Blue Team over the next 6 weeks, just as they did last time out.
    For those of us in the betting fraternity, it would be good if pearls of wisdom such as these could be highlighted in bold with a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.

    That looks an excellent bet to me.
    Especially so when one compares it with the equivalent market available on the Betfair Exchange, which offers Tory seats in 10 seats tranches currently on offer as follows:

    250-259 .... 32
    260-269 .... 32
    270-279 .... 20
    289-289 .... 17
    290-299 .... 12.5

    Back all five of the above tranches so as to equalise one's returns and the resulting winning odds, net of Betfair's 5% commission, is 3.83 ... way, way behind Ladbrokes' 5.75, as above, for the same bet.
    I had a look to see if I could replicate it through Betfair and struggled.
    Btw, Betfair has a 2% commission option now. Well worth switching.
    I have had a brief wander through Shadsy's markets, and that one seems to have gone. I did have a modest punt on a few others though, with odds boost.

    18/1 LDs on less than 10% (this is where we were last time)

    11/2 on LDs 20-29 seats (I expect a lot of strong second places)

    13/1 on Con vote share 20-30% (the BXP may take off and BoZo flop)

    13/1 on turnout less than 60% (the combination of Christmas and Bored of Brexit)

    I am not making these as predictions, but rather as value bets.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited November 2019
    OT admin re links

    Is there any chance of tidying up the links? Maybe getting rid of the casino site links (no mention of the insurance links!). It is hard to believe pb readers are looking to play fruit machines in their underwear, and easy to believe some firms' censors will block pb because of these links.

    I'd be inclined to add a link to this curated list of MPs' twitter accounts.
    https://www.mpsontwitter.co.uk/list
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938
    ydoethur said:

    moonshine said:

    ydoethur said:

    @egg

    HS2 has not been cancelled.

    HS2 is a Schrodinger’s trainset. If you want to believe it’s cancelled then it’s cancelled. If you want to be believe it’s still happening then it’s still happening.

    We should find out quite soon after the election.
    Originally the Oakervee Review was due to be published a fortnight Monday. However, I am guessing that there will now be a delay into the New Year. Nobody is going to want an argument about this in an election campaign!

    However, it is difficult for a very large number of reasons to see anything major being changed. The Leeds route might be delayed, but ultimately the situation from Birmingham to London is (a) at crisis point in terms of capacity and (b) the new lines are already under construction, and the lines into Curzon Street and Euston pretty much have to go ahead whether high speed or not. In which case, why not build the rest (which is a minority of the actual cost) too?

    But there are for some reason a lot of people - weirdly, many of them totally unaffected either way - who have made this totemic, so it isn’t something either Johnson or Corbyn will want to discuss while grubbing, oops, campaigning for votes.
    Those people nowhere near the HS2 line see £80 billion that could be/have been spent elsewehere. Some of it in their neck of the woods.....
  • It's probably worth noting that, in some respects, Labour doesn't need to do as well as in 2017.

    If you're a moderate Labour MP, desperately hanging on to the party in the hope that the next leader will start the long journey away from the failings of the Corbyn era, then the optimum result you may be hoping for is a weak minority Conservative government where the opposition is just a couple of seats short of forcing Johnson out of Number 10. Something like 312 Conservative MPs (net 5 down on GE2017).

    If the SNP are +15 and the Liberal Democrats are +20, then Labour could be down 30 MPs and still have in some sense achieved the same result as GE2017 - denying the Conservatives a majority and a free hand.

    An optimistic anti-Tory can envisage a scenario where Labour can finish with fewer seats than in 1983, but the Liberal Democrats and SNP do well enough between them to deny Johnson a majority. 50 SNP MPs and 65 Liberal Democrat MPs would do it.
  • The Tory front bench is as weak as the Labour one. But that aside David is spot on. The key point in this election is that most Leave supporters do not blame Johnson for us still being in the EU, while many millions of Remain supporters believe Corbyn is at least partly responsible for the fact we almost certainly will leave. Throw in his decades of standing shoulder with anti-Semites and his long record of backing any regime that is hostile to the UK/US/Israel and the Tories have all they need. The bottom line is this: a party that insists on having Jeremy Corbyn as its leader is not a party that is serious about winning elections. Voters know this.

    So, the Tories will win handily. But they will begin from a low base of active support. It will get worse from there as the reality of what Brexit entails becomes clearer. It all means the next few years will be grimly fascinating.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such a result appears all too possible were things to go seriously pear-shaped for the Blue Team over the next 6 weeks, just as they did last time out.
    For those of us in the betting fraternity, it would be good if pearls of wisdom such as these could be highlighted in bold with a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.

    That looks an excellent bet to me.
    Especially so when one compares it with the equivalent market available on the Betfair Exchange, which offers Tory seats in 10 seats tranches currently on offer as follows:

    250-259 .... 32
    260-269 .... 32
    270-279 .... 20
    289-289 .... 17
    290-299 .... 12.5

    Back all five of the above tranches so as to equalise one's returns and the resulting winning odds, net of Betfair's 5% commission, is 3.83 ... way, way behind Ladbrokes' 5.75, as above, for the same bet.
    I had a look to see if I could replicate it through Betfair and struggled.
    Btw, Betfair has a 2% commission option now. Well worth switching.
    Careful: Betfair has a 2% commission rate if you've opted to take the 2% deal. Otherwise you could be paying 8%.
    I am on the basic deal, so 2%, but would other punters favour one of the other options?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Re Labour overconfidence.. who was the guy/gal we had on here a few yrs back who was going on about Labours secret weapon that was going to win the election for Labour?
  • Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such a result appears all too possible were things to go seriously pear-shaped for the Blue Team over the next 6 weeks, just as they did last time out.
    For those of us in the betting fraternity, it would be good if pearls of wisdom such as these could be highlighted in bold with a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.

    That looks an excellent bet to me.
    Especially so when one compares it with the equivalent market available on the Betfair Exchange, which offers Tory seats in 10 seats tranches currently on offer as follows:

    250-259 .... 32
    260-269 .... 32
    270-279 .... 20
    289-289 .... 17
    290-299 .... 12.5

    Back all five of the above tranches so as to equalise one's returns and the resulting winning odds, net of Betfair's 5% commission, is 3.83 ... way, way behind Ladbrokes' 5.75, as above, for the same bet.
    I had a look to see if I could replicate it through Betfair and struggled.
    Btw, Betfair has a 2% commission option now. Well worth switching.
    Careful: Betfair has a 2% commission rate if you've opted to take the 2% deal. Otherwise you could be paying 8%.
    I am on the basic deal, so 2%, but would other punters favour one of the other options?
    If you are mainly playing fixed odds, then BOG is probably more important. As an aside, I get the impression Betfair is slowly separating the exchange from the sportsbook. People rich enough to buy shares might want to wonder about that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631

    ydoethur said:

    moonshine said:

    ydoethur said:

    @egg

    HS2 has not been cancelled.

    HS2 is a Schrodinger’s trainset. If you want to believe it’s cancelled then it’s cancelled. If you want to be believe it’s still happening then it’s still happening.

    We should find out quite soon after the election.
    Originally the Oakervee Review was due to be published a fortnight Monday. However, I am guessing that there will now be a delay into the New Year. Nobody is going to want an argument about this in an election campaign!

    However, it is difficult for a very large number of reasons to see anything major being changed. The Leeds route might be delayed, but ultimately the situation from Birmingham to London is (a) at crisis point in terms of capacity and (b) the new lines are already under construction, and the lines into Curzon Street and Euston pretty much have to go ahead whether high speed or not. In which case, why not build the rest (which is a minority of the actual cost) too?

    But there are for some reason a lot of people - weirdly, many of them totally unaffected either way - who have made this totemic, so it isn’t something either Johnson or Corbyn will want to discuss while grubbing, oops, campaigning for votes.
    Those people nowhere near the HS2 line see £80 billion that could be/have been spent elsewehere. Some of it in their neck of the woods.....
    Meanwhile those of us who live near the WCML suffer delays, cancellations and reduced services. Not to mention the huge amount of freight the WCML carries that needs to go somewhere.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938
    edited November 2019

    rkrkrk said:

    I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such a result appears all too possible were things to go seriously pear-shaped for the Blue Team over the next 6 weeks, just as they did last time out.
    For those of us in the betting fraternity, it would be good if pearls of wisdom such as these could be highlighted in bold with a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.

    That looks an excellent bet to me.
    Especially so when one compares it with the equivalent market available on the Betfair Exchange, which offers Tory seats in 10 seats tranches currently on offer as follows:

    250-259 .... 32
    260-269 .... 32
    270-279 .... 20
    289-289 .... 17
    290-299 .... 12.5

    Back all five of the above tranches so as to equalise one's returns and the resulting winning odds, net of Betfair's 5% commission, is 3.83 ... way, way behind Ladbrokes' 5.75, as above, for the same bet.
    The lower Tory seats couple of tranches require something of a Tory meltdown. If Labour really are going for a strategy of holding onto what they've got, then apart from a few low-hanging fruit for Labour and the Scottish seats, it is going to requitre the LibDems to come steaming through whilst the Labour vote holds up. Essentially, a complete reversal of current polling, where the LibDems have been well off recent highs and Labour has been crawling up a couple of points whilst the Tories get well into double-digit leads.

    You might consider not needing to invest in that part of the bet at this stage. You can always go back (admitteldy at poorer odds) if that required Tory collapse starts to show through in the polls.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Still think Johnson agreeing to a head-to-head with Corbyn is a mistake.

    F1: because qualifying's late and I have a busy Sunday there's an off-chance there won't be a pre-race ramble. Hopefully I'll manage to write one but it'll be a shade tight.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453
    I am not a rugby fan, but isn't 3.5 for the Springboks good value for a team that bludgeoned their way past the highly rated Wales side?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631

    Good morning, everyone.

    Still think Johnson agreeing to a head-to-head with Corbyn is a mistake.

    F1: because qualifying's late and I have a busy Sunday there's an off-chance there won't be a pre-race ramble. Hopefully I'll manage to write one but it'll be a shade tight.

    The problem is while I expect both to crash and burn, because both are basically useless, there isn’t much further for Corbyn to fall, so he can only really surprise on the upside.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,582
    Foxy said:

    I am not a rugby fan, but isn't 3.5 for the Springboks good value for a team that bludgeoned their way past the highly rated Wales side?

    I mean England bludgeoned their way past the highly rated NZ side too!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,938
    The big Yougov poll from earlier this week had 44% of Labour Leavers from 2017 switching either to the Tories or TBP. Labour Leavers were about 10% of the voters, overall, in 2017, but in a constituency like Workington, the proportion would be much higher.
  • Re Labour overconfidence.. who was the guy/gal we had on here a few yrs back who was going on about Labours secret weapon that was going to win the election for Labour?

    Surely the secret weapon in JEREMY! Oooh Jeremy Corbyn!

    From what I am seeing on social media Jeremy has a problem a Tim Farron Bum Sex - style problem. The stench of anti-semitism is far stronger than it has been, with so many moderate Labour MPs on record being Shocked and Appalled by Corbyn and the 4Ms. Questions are already loudly being asked about why they are wanting to put Corbyn into office, and the Jewish community has openly refused to engage.

    So I don't think Jeremy will have a smooth ride like last time. And when questions come in that he doesn't like he gets nasty and shouty and thats not what his handlers want people to see. Then again Johnson is capable of reacting badly to questions he can't/won't answer, the die in a ditch with Jennifer Arcuri stuff is still roaring hot so again, should be fun.

    To repeat my point of last night, with regards to #debateher this is probably ideal for Swinson. Make the point. Let Corbyn vs Johnson turn into one of the most excrutiating hours of TV possible. Come out the other side saying "you want to vote for That?"
  • ydoethur said:

    and if you need to build a new railway, why not build it to European gauge so double decker can run...

    First of all, you mean loading gauge, not gauge.

    Secondly, you are unfortunately wrong. I once thought the same thing but there are two very good arguments against it. First of all, double decker trains are incredibly slow to load and unload because of the huge number of people on them. That reduces capacity because it means longer station stops. Also, such trains tend to be slow and bulky and unlike the proposed HS2 units, would be unable to operate on non-HS lines (the current idea is that north of Manchester, where capacity is less of a problem, the expresses will run on the old metals to Scotland).
    ...
    On the loading/unloading of passengers would it not be possible, if you're only running these trains on new lines anyway, to build stations for the trains with double decker platforms? You'd hopefully avoid any need for extra time at stations.

    Granted that the other points are still problems.
  • Mr. Doethur, my reading exactly.

    Right now, polling suggests that the Conservatives are benefiting from a relative advantage on leader ratings and a far more evenly split Leave than Remain vote.

    Emphasising Corbyn as The Alternative risks both of those advantages.

    A larger debate, with almost every other leader being for Remain, reduces the time available for Johnson to cock up and reinforces him as someone trying to get a deal through whilst everyone else is either Super-Remainish or fence-sitting.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,582
    Sean_F said:

    The big Yougov poll from earlier this week had 44% of Labour Leavers from 2017 switching either to the Tories or TBP. Labour Leavers were about 10% of the voters, overall, in 2017, but in a constituency like Workington, the proportion would be much higher.

    I mean that’s less than 14% of Labour’s 2017 vote share. Not quite as mind blowing as you might think. How many Con voters from 2017 are now voting Lib Dem?
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    moonshine said:

    ydoethur said:

    @egg

    HS2 has not been cancelled.

    HS2 is a Schrodinger’s trainset. If you want to believe it’s cancelled then it’s cancelled. If you want to be believe it’s still happening then it’s still happening.

    We should find out quite soon after the election.
    Originally the Oakervee Review was due to be published a fortnight Monday. However, I am guessing that there will now be a delay into the New Year. Nobody is going to want an argument about this in an election campaign!

    However, it is difficult for a very large number of reasons to see anything major being changed. The Leeds route might be delayed, but ultimately the situation from Birmingham to London is (a) at crisis point in terms of capacity and (b) the new lines are already under construction, and the lines into Curzon Street and Euston pretty much have to go ahead whether high speed or not. In which case, why not build the rest (which is a minority of the actual cost) too?

    But there are for some reason a lot of people - weirdly, many of them totally unaffected either way - who have made this totemic, so it isn’t something either Johnson or Corbyn will want to discuss while grubbing, oops, campaigning for votes.
    Those people nowhere near the HS2 line see £80 billion that could be/have been spent elsewehere. Some of it in their neck of the woods.....
    Meanwhile those of us who live near the WCML suffer delays, cancellations and reduced services. Not to mention the huge amount of freight the WCML carries that needs to go somewhere.
    I find it fascinating that the cost of HS2 is always brought up.

    Where are these people when Crossrail was funded, when the Northern Line tube line is being extended?

    It is not as if the railway has been starved of cash due to HS2.

    Reading station alone was £1bn - where was the noise about that or do enough of the London elite use that line for it to be worthwhile?

    There is vast sums of money invested in and around London that never ever gets any negative comment.

    As soon as anyone suggests investing in the north, to start the decades and decades of none investment, all hell breaks loose.

    If HS2 was built instead of the WCML upgrade 20 years ago it would have been cheaper, if we delay a further 20 years it will cost far more.

  • Good morning, everyone.

    Still think Johnson agreeing to a head-to-head with Corbyn is a mistake.

    F1: because qualifying's late and I have a busy Sunday there's an off-chance there won't be a pre-race ramble. Hopefully I'll manage to write one but it'll be a shade tight.

    My view is that Johnson has correctly identified the Liberal Democrats as his biggest threat.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938

    Sean_F said:

    The big Yougov poll from earlier this week had 44% of Labour Leavers from 2017 switching either to the Tories or TBP. Labour Leavers were about 10% of the voters, overall, in 2017, but in a constituency like Workington, the proportion would be much higher.

    I mean that’s less than 14% of Labour’s 2017 vote share. Not quite as mind blowing as you might think. How many Con voters from 2017 are now voting Lib Dem?
    But how many Lab voters are now voting LibDem?
  • ydoethur said:

    moonshine said:

    ydoethur said:

    @egg

    HS2 has not been cancelled.

    HS2 is a Schrodinger’s trainset. If you want to believe it’s cancelled then it’s cancelled. If you want to be believe it’s still happening then it’s still happening.

    We should find out quite soon after the election.
    Originally the Oakervee Review was due to be published a fortnight Monday. However, I am guessing that there will now be a delay into the New Year. Nobody is going to want an argument about this in an election campaign!

    However, it is difficult for a very large number of reasons to see anything major being changed. The Leeds route might be delayed, but ultimately the situation from Birmingham to London is (a) at crisis point in terms of capacity and (b) the new lines are already under construction, and the lines into Curzon Street and Euston pretty much have to go ahead whether high speed or not. In which case, why not build the rest (which is a minority of the actual cost) too?

    But there are for some reason a lot of people - weirdly, many of them totally unaffected either way - who have made this totemic, so it isn’t something either Johnson or Corbyn will want to discuss while grubbing, oops, campaigning for votes.
    The problem with HS2 is that it was sold on a lie, a preposterous one, that it was to reduce the time taken from "The North" to civilisation in the form of Euston Station. The justification can only have been done by someone who never used railways in general or that route in particular. Time on the train is just a significant proportion of the journey time. It takes me an hour to get to the station at Oxenholme - could normally be done in half an hour but what if the road is flooded etc. Then the journey itself - much improved with Virgin - shy of 3 hours - and then the walk to St. Pancras where usually I could catch the train before - but what if the Virgin train is delayed - so an hour wait there and so on.

    A half hour off the Oxenholme Euston journey would probably mean I could confidently go for the earlier EuroStar. But, that is not much of a benefit really. The reliability of HS2 really is needed and that is what it should always have been sold on. It will be really bad if HS2 is pruned in any way - for instance - slow train to Preston, stand on that delightful platform for 25 mins to take the rest of the journey in 25 mins less !
  • Always nice to see the quadrennial efflorescence of the Michael Bloomberg feelers. He’s last matched at 65 for the Democratic nomination.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,582

    Sean_F said:

    The big Yougov poll from earlier this week had 44% of Labour Leavers from 2017 switching either to the Tories or TBP. Labour Leavers were about 10% of the voters, overall, in 2017, but in a constituency like Workington, the proportion would be much higher.

    I mean that’s less than 14% of Labour’s 2017 vote share. Not quite as mind blowing as you might think. How many Con voters from 2017 are now voting Lib Dem?
    But how many Lab voters are now voting LibDem?
    That only matters in Lab v Tory marginals. It doesn’t matter in traditional Tory heartlands.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938

    Sean_F said:

    The big Yougov poll from earlier this week had 44% of Labour Leavers from 2017 switching either to the Tories or TBP. Labour Leavers were about 10% of the voters, overall, in 2017, but in a constituency like Workington, the proportion would be much higher.

    I mean that’s less than 14% of Labour’s 2017 vote share. Not quite as mind blowing as you might think. How many Con voters from 2017 are now voting Lib Dem?
    But how many Lab voters are now voting LibDem?
    That only matters in Lab v Tory marginals. It doesn’t matter in traditional Tory heartlands.
    But this election will be decided in Tory v Labour marginals.
  • Always nice to see the quadrennial efflorescence of the Michael Bloomberg feelers. He’s last matched at 65 for the Democratic nomination.

    You'd have thought the nostalgic long-shot revivalists backing Hillary and Bloomberg would do better eyeing up the GOP lists in case a replacement for Trump is needed in short order.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,938

    Sean_F said:

    The big Yougov poll from earlier this week had 44% of Labour Leavers from 2017 switching either to the Tories or TBP. Labour Leavers were about 10% of the voters, overall, in 2017, but in a constituency like Workington, the proportion would be much higher.

    I mean that’s less than 14% of Labour’s 2017 vote share. Not quite as mind blowing as you might think. How many Con voters from 2017 are now voting Lib Dem?
    Yes, but bear in mind that in somewhere like Workington, the percentage figure is much higher. In a place like Cambridge, the proportion of Labour leavers in 2017 would be miniscule. Labour's problem in the latter seat is losing a big chunk of Labour remainers to the Lib Dems.

    IIRC, the proportion of 2017 Conservatives who have switched to the Lib Dems is 9% overall. The proportion will be minuscule in a place like Mansfield, but far higher than 9% in a seat like Guildford.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453
    edited November 2019

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    moonshine said:

    ydoethur said:

    @egg

    HS2 has not been cancelled.

    HS2 is a Schrodinger’s trainset. If you want to believe it’s cancelled then it’s cancelled. If you want to be believe it’s still happening then it’s still happening.

    We should find out quite soon after the election.
    Originally the Oakervee Review was due to be published a fortnight Monday. However, I am guessing that there will now be a delay into the New Year. Nobody is going to want an argument about this in an election campaign!

    However, it is difficult
    Those people nowhere near the HS2 line see £80 billion that could be/have been spent elsewehere. Some of it in their neck of the woods.....
    Meanwhile those of us who live near the WCML suffer delays, cancellations and reduced services. Not to mention the huge amount of freight the WCML carries that needs to go somewhere.
    I find it fascinating that the cost of HS2 is always brought up.

    Where are these people when Crossrail was funded, when the Northern Line tube line is being extended?

    It is not as if the railway has been starved of cash due to HS2.

    Reading station alone was £1bn - where was the noise about that or do enough of the London elite use that line for it to be worthwhile?

    There is vast sums of money invested in and around London that never ever gets any negative comment.

    As soon as anyone suggests investing in the north, to start the decades and decades of none investment, all hell breaks loose.

    If HS2 was built instead of the WCML upgrade 20 years ago it would have been cheaper, if we delay a further 20 years it will cost far more.

    My dislike of HS2 is fairly ho hum. I am not too bothered whether it is scrapped or not.

    Ticket prices will be significantly higher even than the inflated prices we pay already, the line passes through Leics without stopping, and I cannot see why I would ever take it.

    High speed trains seem less environmentally sound from several perspectives. They also suck more of the country into being London commuter land. It looks a white elephant in the making to me.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,582
    edited November 2019

    Sean_F said:

    The big Yougov poll from earlier this week had 44% of Labour Leavers from 2017 switching either to the Tories or TBP. Labour Leavers were about 10% of the voters, overall, in 2017, but in a constituency like Workington, the proportion would be much higher.

    I mean that’s less than 14% of Labour’s 2017 vote share. Not quite as mind blowing as you might think. How many Con voters from 2017 are now voting Lib Dem?
    But how many Lab voters are now voting LibDem?
    That only matters in Lab v Tory marginals. It doesn’t matter in traditional Tory heartlands.
    But this election will be decided in Tory v Labour marginals.
    Only if seats that traditionally were not Tory v Lib Dem marginals don’t become them.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    I'd rather be in the lead... but it is a hell of a lot more fun being the underdog, even a heroic defeat can feel like victory...

    It may be my sunny disposition but I see only upside from here.

    Even the worst case scenario, Johnson wins big. Long term probably great for Labour, terrible for the country in the short term but the more people turn against the Tories the better things get in the longer term. Even in a worst case scenario Corbyn has secured Labour as a left wing party, got rid of some truly terrible MPs and made things far easier for his successor.

    Tis always darkest before the dawn, with any luck that light will start breaking through before the 12th of December but even if it doesn't it will just shine all the brighter when it does break through. So just embrace the darkness.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938

    Sean_F said:

    The big Yougov poll from earlier this week had 44% of Labour Leavers from 2017 switching either to the Tories or TBP. Labour Leavers were about 10% of the voters, overall, in 2017, but in a constituency like Workington, the proportion would be much higher.

    I mean that’s less than 14% of Labour’s 2017 vote share. Not quite as mind blowing as you might think. How many Con voters from 2017 are now voting Lib Dem?
    But how many Lab voters are now voting LibDem?
    That only matters in Lab v Tory marginals. It doesn’t matter in traditional Tory heartlands.
    But this election will be decided in Tory v Labour marginals.
    Only if seats that traditionally were not Tory v Lib Dem marginals don’t become them.
    Not happening on any scale under current polling.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660

    I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such a result appears all too possible were things to go seriously pear-shaped for the Blue Team over the next 6 weeks, just as they did last time out.
    For those of us in the betting fraternity, it would be good if pearls of wisdom such as these could be highlighted in bold with a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.

    Every post I'll make will be a Bet of the Day post.

    For instance if that tweet HYUFD posted in the last thread is true and the Lib Dems are truly only 7 points behind Blackford IN Ross Skye and Lochabar then the Conservatives have lost West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine and you need to take a good hard look at Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk

    As both of those seats, like in Ross, the Con vote was powered by Lib Dem switchers.
  • Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    moonshine said:

    ydoethur said:

    @egg

    HS2 has not been cancelled.

    HS2 is a Schrodinger’s trainset. If you want to believe it’s cancelled then it’s cancelled. If you want to be believe it’s still happening then it’s still happening.

    We should find out quite soon after the election.
    Originally the Oakervee Review was due to be published a fortnight Monday. However, I am guessing that there will now be a delay into the New Year. Nobody is going to want an argument about this in an election campaign!

    However, it is difficult
    Those people nowhere near the HS2 line see £80 billion that could be/have been spent elsewehere. Some of it in their neck of the woods.....
    Meanwhile those of us who live near the WCML suffer delays, cancellations and reduced services. Not to mention the huge amount of freight the WCML carries that needs to go somewhere.
    I find it fascinating that the cost of HS2 is always brought up.

    Where are these people when Crossrail was funded, when the Northern Line tube line is being extended?

    It is not as if the railway has been starved of cash due to HS2.

    Reading station alone was £1bn - where was the noise about that or do enough of the London elite use that line for it to be worthwhile?

    There is vast sums of money invested in and around London that never ever gets any negative comment.

    As soon as anyone suggests investing in the north, to start the decades and decades of none investment, all hell breaks loose.

    If HS2 was built instead of the WCML upgrade 20 years ago it would have been cheaper, if we delay a further 20 years it will cost far more.

    My dislike of HS2 is fairly ho hum. I am not too bothered whether it is scrapped or not.

    Ticket prices will be significantly higher even than the inflated prices we pay already, the line passes through Leics without stopping, and I cannot see why I would ever take it.

    High speed trains seem less environmentally sound from several perspectives. They also suck more of the country into being London commuter land. It looks a white elephant in the making to me.
    The biggest mistake with HS2 is the name - the 2 makes it sound like an afterthought. It should have been called HSN (High Speed North). They just need to get on with it, in 20 years we won't know why we were arguing about it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631

    The problem with HS2 is that it was sold on a lie, a preposterous one, that it was to reduce the time taken from "The North" to civilisation in the form of Euston Station. The justification can only have been done by someone who never used railways in general or that route in particular. Time on the train is just a significant proportion of the journey time. It takes me an hour to get to the station at Oxenholme - could normally be done in half an hour but what if the road is flooded etc. Then the journey itself - much improved with Virgin - shy of 3 hours - and then the walk to St. Pancras where usually I could catch the train before - but what if the Virgin train is delayed - so an hour wait there and so on.

    A half hour off the Oxenholme Euston journey would probably mean I could confidently go for the earlier EuroStar. But, that is not much of a benefit really. The reliability of HS2 really is needed and that is what it should always have been sold on. It will be really bad if HS2 is pruned in any way - for instance - slow train to Preston, stand on that delightful platform for 25 mins to take the rest of the journey in 25 mins less !

    Well, it wasn’t actually. It was always put forward as the only realistic way of increasing capacity while reducing carbon emissions. It’s just the London-centric press seized on that bit about the North and ran with it as though it was the be-all and end-all.

    In actual fact it’s most fundamental impact will be to local and freight services on the WCML, which can be radically improved and increased as a result. That will affect a number of bottlenecks (e.g. New Street, Stafford) which if dealt with piecemeal would make matters worse.
  • embrace the darkness.

    The most honest Labour campaign slogan possible

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,938

    Sean_F said:

    The big Yougov poll from earlier this week had 44% of Labour Leavers from 2017 switching either to the Tories or TBP. Labour Leavers were about 10% of the voters, overall, in 2017, but in a constituency like Workington, the proportion would be much higher.

    I mean that’s less than 14% of Labour’s 2017 vote share. Not quite as mind blowing as you might think. How many Con voters from 2017 are now voting Lib Dem?
    But how many Lab voters are now voting LibDem?
    That only matters in Lab v Tory marginals. It doesn’t matter in traditional Tory heartlands.
    But this election will be decided in Tory v Labour marginals.
    Only if seats that traditionally were not Tory v Lib Dem marginals don’t become them.
    A lot of the traditional Con v Lib Dem battlegrounds are probably gone for good now, for the Lib Dems. I don't think they're coming back in places like Torbay or North Devon, or Somerton & Frome, as these are all anti-EU constituencies.

    But, there are potential gains for the Lib Dems in Stockbroker Belt constituencies, like Guildford, Cheadle, Winchester, and some new seats may come into play. The danger, as @Alistair Meeks pointed out, however, is winning lots of strong second places.
  • Isn’t another problem for Corbyn is that a lot of people who held their noses and voted for him last time, largely to keep the Labour party brand alive, might vote against him this time simply to make sure he does so badly that he doesn’t claim some sort of victory and insist on staying on as leader? They might actually want a rout to save the party for next time.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    moonshine said:

    ydoethur said:

    @egg

    HS2 has not been cancelled.

    HS2 is a Schrodinger’s trainset. If you want to believe it’s cancelled then it’s cancelled. If you want to be believe it’s still happening then it’s still happening.

    We should find out quite soon after the election.
    Originally the Oakervee Review was due to be published a fortnight Monday. However, I am guessing that there will now be a delay into the New Year. Nobody is going to want an argument about this in an election campaign!

    However, it is difficult
    Those people nowhere near the HS2 line see £80 billion that could be/have been spent elsewehere. Some of it in their neck of the woods.....
    Meanwhile those of us who live near the WCML suffer delays, cancellations and reduced services. Not to mention the huge amount of freight the WCML carries that needs to go somewhere.
    I find it fascinating that the cost of HS2 is always brought up.

    Where are these people when Crossrail was funded, when the Northern Line tube line is being extended?

    It is not as if the railway has been starved of cash due to HS2.

    Reading station alone was £1bn - where was the noise about that or do enough of the London elite use that line for it to be worthwhile?

    There is vast sums of money invested in and around London that never ever gets any negative comment.

    As soon as anyone suggests investing in the north, to start the decades and decades of none investment, all hell breaks loose.

    If HS2 was built instead of the WCML upgrade 20 years ago it would have been cheaper, if we delay a further 20 years it will cost far more.

    My dislike of HS2 is fairly ho hum. I am not too bothered whether it is scrapped or not.

    Ticket prices will be significantly higher even than the inflated prices we pay already, the line passes through Leics without stopping, and I cannot see why I would ever take it.

    High speed trains seem less environmentally sound from several perspectives. They also suck more of the country into being London commuter land. It looks a white elephant in the making to me.
    The point is not you will be catching trains on HS2. The point is that with the capacity freed up Leicester can have an improved service to Birmingham, Derby and possibly direct to London while the Leeds/London or Leeds/Birmingham expresses go elsewhere.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631

    I'd rather be in the lead... but it is a hell of a lot more fun being the underdog, even a heroic defeat can feel like victory...

    It may be my sunny disposition but I see only upside from here.

    Even the worst case scenario, Johnson wins big. Long term probably great for Labour, terrible for the country in the short term but the more people turn against the Tories the better things get in the longer term. Even in a worst case scenario Corbyn has secured Labour as a left wing party, got rid of some truly terrible MPs and made things far easier for his successor.

    Tis always darkest before the dawn, with any luck that light will start breaking through before the 12th of December but even if it doesn't it will just shine all the brighter when it does break through. So just embrace the darkness.

    So just to clarify - if Labour get the shit kicked out of them so epically they come third, that’s OK because many years from now we won’t have a Tory government?

    I’m really glad you’re not negotiating my next pay increase...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453
    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Beto O'Rourke's withdrawal helps ... no idea. He did not seem to stand for anything very much (hi, Mayor Pete fans). The question is not who inherits Beto's meagre support, which is probably all of them, but who else will pull out before the next debate three weeks from now on 20/11.
    Maybe help his fellow Texan, Julian Castro who is struggling to survive.
    There are four candidates in this race: Warren, Buttigieg, and two others whose names I forget.
    What poll were you referring to for Mayor Pete in NH? The ones on the 538 site have him on 10% at best in fourth place.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/new-hampshire/
  • That Matthew Parris article is absolutely spot on. The Tories will win the election because Jeremy Corbyn cannot possibly win it, but then what? Johnson’s party is viciously right wing in personnel if not yet in policy. But because of the former the latter is only a matter of time.
  • Scott_P said:
    What will it say about negotiations for the future trade deal, extending the transition and the possibility of exiting the transition without a deal while negotiations continue? The ERG were pushing quite hard for a commitment not to extend the transition in the Withdrawal Agreement debates.

    If Johnson wins a majority that's one of the major next arguments in the Brexit saga - others being the substance of any trade deal with the EU, or the US.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,700

    Isn’t another problem for Corbyn is that a lot of people who held their noses and voted for him last time, largely to keep the Labour party brand alive, might vote against him this time simply to make sure he does so badly that he doesn’t claim some sort of victory and insist on staying on as leader? They might actually want a rout to save the party for next time.

    I think a lot of people will be conflicted between wanting to punish Labour for their Brexit position and at the same time being acutely aware that if they don’t want a Tory government, then Labour is their only option. I reckon the latter wins out, but it’s not nearly as clear cut as 2017 (even if it took us by surprise then).
This discussion has been closed.