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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New PB / Polling Matters podcast. And they’re off! General Ele

135

Comments

  • AndyJS said:

    YouGov with Flavible:

    Con 399
    Lab 142
    SNP 44
    LD 42
    PC 4
    Grn 1

    https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/gb/36/21/18/13/6/3.1/0.3/0.7

    It's a fake poll isn't it?
    AndyJS said:

    YouGov with Flavible:

    Con 399
    Lab 142
    SNP 44
    LD 42
    PC 4
    Grn 1

    https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/gb/36/21/18/13/6/3.1/0.3/0.7

    The guy who posted this said it's from @YouGov. It's not.
    It is not a fake poll BJO but the predictions is flavible

    Labour at 21% is terrible but it is only one poll
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Pulpstar, the deficit's barely been mentioned by either the media or politicians for ages.

    I can only presume the £50bn plus we spend every year on interest payments is the same or increased.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Emmanuel Goldstein will be feeling pretty small after 6 weeks of anti "elitism" from Corbyn.

    I am hoping the choice of going for 6 weeks negativity is a catastrophic error by Labour.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723

    AndyJS said:

    Good morning. Does anyone have another source for this?

    https://twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/1189796449715990530

    Labour are never going to poll as low as 21%...brown hit those kind of poll numbers, but come the election the tribal vote always comes out.

    It comes down to if tories can get 36% and keep labour to their floor of about 30%, boris gets his majority. Otherwise, back for more of the same old same old in parliament.
    Where do Labour get that extra 9% from? 2% Greens, 2% LibDems, 5% Brexit?
    You think Labour are going to poll what %?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    isam said:

    Election fever hitting my Facebook feed



    I look forward to watching your friends’ “Heroes of Comedy” special.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    AndyJS said:

    YouGov with Flavible:

    Con 399
    Lab 142
    SNP 44
    LD 42
    PC 4
    Grn 1

    https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/gb/36/21/18/13/6/3.1/0.3/0.7

    It's a fake poll isn't it?
    AndyJS said:

    YouGov with Flavible:

    Con 399
    Lab 142
    SNP 44
    LD 42
    PC 4
    Grn 1

    https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/gb/36/21/18/13/6/3.1/0.3/0.7

    The guy who posted this said it's from @YouGov. It's not.
    It is not a fake poll BJO but the predictions is flavible

    Labour at 21% is terrible but it is only one poll
    If they really are at 21%, Mysticrose needs to be getting her passport updated with necessary visa?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723

    AndyJS said:

    YouGov with Flavible:

    Con 399
    Lab 142
    SNP 44
    LD 42
    PC 4
    Grn 1

    https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/gb/36/21/18/13/6/3.1/0.3/0.7

    It's a fake poll isn't it?
    AndyJS said:

    YouGov with Flavible:

    Con 399
    Lab 142
    SNP 44
    LD 42
    PC 4
    Grn 1

    https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/gb/36/21/18/13/6/3.1/0.3/0.7

    The guy who posted this said it's from @YouGov. It's not.
    It is not a fake poll BJO but the predictions is flavible

    Labour at 21% is terrible but it is only one poll
    Where is the poll apart from on this Ben blokes twitter?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    AndyJS said:

    Good morning. Does anyone have another source for this?

    https://twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/1189796449715990530

    Labour are never going to poll as low as 21%...brown hit those kind of poll numbers, but come the election the tribal vote always comes out.

    It comes down to if tories can get 36% and keep labour to their floor of about 30%, boris gets his majority. Otherwise, back for more of the same old same old in parliament.
    Where do Labour get that extra 9% from? 2% Greens, 2% LibDems, 5% Brexit?
    You think Labour are going to poll what %?
    We are trying to be generous and get them to 30%......
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723

    AndyJS said:

    YouGov with Flavible:

    Con 399
    Lab 142
    SNP 44
    LD 42
    PC 4
    Grn 1

    https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/gb/36/21/18/13/6/3.1/0.3/0.7

    It's a fake poll isn't it?
    AndyJS said:

    YouGov with Flavible:

    Con 399
    Lab 142
    SNP 44
    LD 42
    PC 4
    Grn 1

    https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/gb/36/21/18/13/6/3.1/0.3/0.7

    The guy who posted this said it's from @YouGov. It's not.
    It is not a fake poll BJO but the predictions is flavible

    Labour at 21% is terrible but it is only one poll
    Where is the poll apart from on this Ben blokes twitter?
    The 36/21 is used input isn't it?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911
    AndyJS said:

    YouGov with Flavible:

    Con 399
    Lab 142
    SNP 44
    LD 42
    PC 4
    Grn 1

    https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/gb/36/21/18/13/6/3.1/0.3/0.7

    Gosh, this feels a lot like 2017. When we were all talking about 170+ Tory majorities.

    I don't think Labour will win. They will lose too many votes to the Lib Dems. But equally so this kind of collapse just doesn't seem plausible. There are too many constituencies where hatstands with red rosettes get elected time after time after time.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    Emmanuel Goldstein will be feeling pretty small after 6 weeks of anti "elitism" from Corbyn.

    I am hoping the choice of going for 6 weeks negativity is a catastrophic error by Labour.

    Labour message is so negative and depressing against Boris confident optimistic can do attitude

    This election will depend on Boris capturing and winning the votes on the success of his positive campaign
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Scott_P said:
    So thats only 26% ish of the population. The other 74% don’t give a damn I assume.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:


    Given that without a majority he in very short order has attempted to suspend democracy and impose a chaotic no deal Brexit, I’m not inclined to see what he wants to do unshackled.

    I sincerely believe the prorogation essentially was a move designed to force his opponents hand.

    I THINK the gamed tactic in No 10 was that he'd be ousted for a temp Corbyn or GNU Gov't after which an election would follow in short order
    OR that he would (And I think he always would cede with the EU over Ireland) get a deal, and its clear he always was going to get a deal and then there'd be sufficient pressure at gunpoint to force No Deal vs Deal through on MPs (And Deal should win in that scenario).

    I'm really not interested what the gamed tactic was. He attempted to suspend democracy for his own political ends. He should not be given the benefit of the doubt.
  • Latest is Boris will put a moratorium on fracking. If he does it is a very good move

    Fracking is yesterday's news
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Scott_P said:
    But if that sense of betrayal is aimed at those opposition parties who blocked Brexit.....

    We had the Boris Deal after all. They voted for it - then played silly buggers....
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    Can anyone show me this is not a FAKE POLL???,?

    Where is it.

    YG don't have that as their latest poll on @YouGov
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited October 2019
    Diane Abbott calls on Keith Vaz to quit
    (But) Pressed on the fact the Labour whip has not been withdrawn from him, Ms Abbott replies: "Not yet. But I think that Keith should consider his position."
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Pulpstar said:


    Given that without a majority he in very short order has attempted to suspend democracy and impose a chaotic no deal Brexit, I’m not inclined to see what he wants to do unshackled.

    I sincerely believe the prorogation essentially was a move designed to force his opponents hand.

    I THINK the gamed tactic in No 10 was that he'd be ousted for a temp Corbyn or GNU Gov't after which an election would follow in short order
    OR that he would (And I think he always would cede with the EU over Ireland) get a deal, and its clear he always was going to get a deal and then there'd be sufficient pressure at gunpoint to force No Deal vs Deal through on MPs (And Deal should win in that scenario).

    If he gets a majority then we will

    i) Leave the EU

    ii) Extends the internal transitions to get an FTA (This will be where Farage pops up but much of his power will be gone)

    iii) Govern fiscally to the left for a Conservative bearing in mind where much of the new support simply must have come from.
    I think that is right about the original plan, and the paradoxical situation of Boris wanting a short-lived Corbyn government to extend A50 and immediately call an election.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    AndyJS said:

    YouGov with Flavible:

    Con 399
    Lab 142
    SNP 44
    LD 42
    PC 4
    Grn 1

    https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/gb/36/21/18/13/6/3.1/0.3/0.7

    It's a fake poll isn't it?
    AndyJS said:

    YouGov with Flavible:

    Con 399
    Lab 142
    SNP 44
    LD 42
    PC 4
    Grn 1

    https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/gb/36/21/18/13/6/3.1/0.3/0.7

    The guy who posted this said it's from @YouGov. It's not.
    It is not a fake poll BJO but the predictions is flavible

    Labour at 21% is terrible but it is only one poll
    Where is the poll apart from on this Ben blokes twitter?
    The 36/21 is used input isn't it?
    The last real Yougov was 36/23
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited October 2019
    Will there be any GE debates?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited October 2019

    Can anyone show me this is not a FAKE POLL???,?

    Where is it.

    YG don't have that as their latest poll on @YouGov

    It is genuine, it is in today’s Times

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/general-election-2019-betrayed-leavers-are-threat-to-johnson-qwnffw0zm
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Latest is Boris will put a moratorium on fracking. If he does it is a very good move

    Fracking is yesterday's news

    That'll go down well round here.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Happy Brexit Day Halloween.

    Leavers crawl in search of blood and terrorise the neighbourhood.
    Remainers looking for a dishevilled blond ghoul dead in a ditch....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited October 2019

    Will there be any GE debates?

    Jezza is calling for a head to head one with boris. Given mays no show last time, i dont think boris can say no.

    I really hope they sort this shit show out for future general elections. There should be set rules way ahead of time, rather than now there will be weeks of horse trading between the parties and the media.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited October 2019

    Labour message is so negative and depressing against Boris confident optimistic can do attitude

    BoZo's record is negative against his confident optimistic can do attitude

    He said a bunch of stuff. None of it happened.
  • kyf_100 said:

    AndyJS said:

    YouGov with Flavible:

    Con 399
    Lab 142
    SNP 44
    LD 42
    PC 4
    Grn 1

    https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/gb/36/21/18/13/6/3.1/0.3/0.7

    Gosh, this feels a lot like 2017. When we were all talking about 170+ Tory majorities.

    I don't think Labour will win. They will lose too many votes to the Lib Dems. But equally so this kind of collapse just doesn't seem plausible. There are too many constituencies where hatstands with red rosettes get elected time after time after time.
    Ironic given a labour/SNP coalition is the most likely outcome to me. Not at the moment but given the traction and given what a good campaigner Corbyn is. Totally unsuitable to be PM and some awful policies but he will win, I am convinced.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960

    Latest is Boris will put a moratorium on fracking. If he does it is a very good move

    Fracking is yesterday's news

    And tomorrow's. Easy vote winner today though.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    Soldiers at Marble Arch station selling poppies and shouting ‘have you got your poppy yet sir?’ to passers by.

    The slow but inexorable drift towards militarism over my lifetime continues.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    rkrkrk said:
    This election will see a lot of dubious and even cynical advice and misdirection on tactical voting, much of it below the radar in the social media equivalent of the old LibDem leaflets.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Scott_P said:

    Labour message is so negative and depressing against Boris confident optimistic can do attitude

    BoZo's record is negative against his confident optimistic can do attitude

    He said a bunch of stuff. None of it happened.
    He got to be PM.

    He got a Deal.

    He's got his election.

    Boris Johnson: Man of His Word....
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    edited October 2019

    Scott_P said:
    But if that sense of betrayal is aimed at those opposition parties who blocked Brexit.....

    We had the Boris Deal after all. They voted for it - then played silly buggers....
    They had the May deal, didn't vote for it; silly buggers.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723

    Can anyone show me this is not a FAKE POLL???,?

    Where is it.

    YG don't have that as their latest poll on @YouGov <. Thatsblockquote>

    It is genuine, it is today’s Times

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/general-election-2019-betrayed-leavers-are-threat-to-johnson-qwnffw0zm

    Ok ta

    That's a good Poll for the Toties.

    Any tables?
  • Scott_P said:

    Labour message is so negative and depressing against Boris confident optimistic can do attitude

    BoZo's record is negative against his confident optimistic can do attitude

    He said a bunch of stuff. None of it happened.
    He got to be PM.

    He got a Deal.

    He's got his election.

    Boris Johnson: Man of His Word....
    Happy Brexit Day.

    I mean he said we’d Leave today. Do or die.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    YouGov with Flavible:

    Con 399
    Lab 142
    SNP 44
    LD 42
    PC 4
    Grn 1

    https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/gb/36/21/18/13/6/3.1/0.3/0.7

    It's a fake poll isn't it?
    AndyJS said:

    YouGov with Flavible:

    Con 399
    Lab 142
    SNP 44
    LD 42
    PC 4
    Grn 1

    https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/gb/36/21/18/13/6/3.1/0.3/0.7

    The guy who posted this said it's from @YouGov. It's not.
    It is not a fake poll BJO but the predictions is flavible

    Labour at 21% is terrible but it is only one poll
    Where is the poll apart from on this Ben blokes twitter?
    The 36/21 is used input isn't it?
    The last real Yougov was 36/23
    Nope....today's Times. 36:21
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    He got a Deal.

    No he didn't. If he got a deal we would be out on the date he said we would be out.

    Just like May...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    YouGov with Flavible:

    Con 399
    Lab 142
    SNP 44
    LD 42
    PC 4
    Grn 1

    https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/gb/36/21/18/13/6/3.1/0.3/0.7

    It's a fake poll isn't it?
    AndyJS said:

    YouGov with Flavible:

    Con 399
    Lab 142
    SNP 44
    LD 42
    PC 4
    Grn 1

    https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/gb/36/21/18/13/6/3.1/0.3/0.7

    The guy who posted this said it's from @YouGov. It's not.
    It is not a fake poll BJO but the predictions is flavible

    Labour at 21% is terrible but it is only one poll
    Where is the poll apart from on this Ben blokes twitter?
    The 36/21 is used input isn't it?
    The last real Yougov was 36/23
    That's what I thought.

    That's what YG says but TSE says it's a new one so I take his word for it
  • Endillion said:

    Latest is Boris will put a moratorium on fracking. If he does it is a very good move

    Fracking is yesterday's news

    And tomorrow's. Easy vote winner today though.
    Very good decision for Lancashire seats in particular but it is the correct thing to do
  • Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    YouGov with Flavible:

    Con 399
    Lab 142
    SNP 44
    LD 42
    PC 4
    Grn 1

    https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/gb/36/21/18/13/6/3.1/0.3/0.7

    It's a fake poll isn't it?
    AndyJS said:

    YouGov with Flavible:

    Con 399
    Lab 142
    SNP 44
    LD 42
    PC 4
    Grn 1

    https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/gb/36/21/18/13/6/3.1/0.3/0.7

    The guy who posted this said it's from @YouGov. It's not.
    It is not a fake poll BJO but the predictions is flavible

    Labour at 21% is terrible but it is only one poll
    Where is the poll apart from on this Ben blokes twitter?
    The 36/21 is used input isn't it?
    The last real Yougov was 36/23
    That's what I thought.

    That's what YG says but TSE says it's a new one so I take his word for it
    The tables should be up on YouGov’s website by lunchtime.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1189818455001903105

    BoZo gets the job done. Except when Jezza wouldn't let him...

    Great campaign message
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    When you dip into those Flavible predictions, huge numbers are within a point or two - essentially too close to call.

    If Boris gets a majority, it might not be until the last few results are called.....or it could be clear by Sunderland.
  • Scott_P said:

    He got a Deal.

    No he didn't. If he got a deal we would be out on the date he said we would be out.

    Just like May...
    God this is going to be a tedious 6 weeks.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    rkrkrk said:
    This election will see a lot of dubious and even cynical advice and misdirection on tactical voting, much of it below the radar in the social media equivalent of the old LibDem leaflets.
    Fundamentally, it is difficult to know who to vote for if you're anti-tory.

    Looking at 2017 results is not fair to the lib dems who are polling much better now. Looking at euro results is silly.

    It does seem very strange not to back a Labour incumbent though.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    Scott_P said:

    Labour message is so negative and depressing against Boris confident optimistic can do attitude

    BoZo's record is negative against his confident optimistic can do attitude

    He said a bunch of stuff. None of it happened.
    He got to be PM.

    He got a Deal.

    He's got his election.

    Boris Johnson: Man of His Word....
    Happy Brexit Day.

    I mean he said we’d Leave today. Do or die.
    Keep checking his pulse until midnight.....
  • Scott_P said:

    Labour message is so negative and depressing against Boris confident optimistic can do attitude

    BoZo's record is negative against his confident optimistic can do attitude

    He said a bunch of stuff. None of it happened.
    He is a very real threat to your desire to stay attached to the EU
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    When you dip into those Flavible predictions, huge numbers are within a point or two - essentially too close to call.

    If Boris gets a majority, it might not be until the last few results are called.....or it could be clear by Sunderland.

    I think it'll be clear early on whether or not he's done it.
  • Pulpstar said:

    On iii) Note "Schools, hospitals, police" has replaced "Bringing down the deficit"

    I can’t think of a worse thing to spunk money on than 20,000 extra police.
    Replacement, not extra. We had those extra 20k police, sacked / didn't replace them, have had massive surges in crime and ASB, and are now supposed to be grateful that they're being put back. Local to me Tories are trying this line and it is playing particularly badly.

    Very early days for a very odd election - lets see how it plays out. Tories can't play any of their usual "profligate tax and spend Labour" lines when Tories plan to spaff money up the wall on everything they've cut previously. With both leaders desperately unpopular in the polls, both parties divided and offering fantasy island Brexit policies, both promising the moon on a stick and don't worry about the money we really cannot predict how this one is going to play out.

    Survation polled "fear of the other". Is that mostly all thats left? Labour voters fear the Tory who usually slashes spending despite this time them not doing. Tory voters fear Labour who promise absurd profligate spending just like their own candidate. Even the boundaries of why the one fears the other have blurred. As this becomes clearer, all kinds of campaign twists and swings are possible, from Tory landslide to Labour majority to more hung than now to surge of the other parties to a CWU Strike / Met Office Blizzard crippling the poll and Anna Soubry's TIGFC sweeping to victory...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    He is a very real threat to your desire to stay attached to the EU

    He is a very real threat to the United Kingdom, but that won't stop you voting for him
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Scott_P said:

    He got a Deal.

    No he didn't. If he got a deal we would be out on the date he said we would be out.

    Just like May...
    Boris got a Deal with the EU. You know, that Deal you told us was impossible to get.

    The one the voters will tell MPs to implement. That one.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    On topic, I expect Labour to surge as the election focuses minds.

    No way will they poll in the low 20s on the day.

    Agreed. The stop the Tories vote is strong and wont becso self defeating to see labour so low.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Tricky sporcle quiz for real political wonks:

    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1189809912827797504
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    Do we think that Corbo’s uncanny resemblance to Father Christmas might give him an unexpected advantage in this seasonal campaign?🎅🏻
  • Roger said:

    Happy Brexit Day Halloween.

    Leavers crawl in search of blood and terrorise the neighbourhood.
    Remainers looking for a dishevilled blond ghoul dead in a ditch....
    That is just unacceptable and an example of why many mps, especially women, are quitting public life

    Totally unnecessary
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    So far on PB this morning Boris is described as a "Man of his Word", "confident, optimistic and can-do".

    One has to conclude that satire is dead, on the day he hyped everyone up to leave the EU, come what may, do or die.

    Boris is the Picasso of bullshit artists.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    Scott_P said:

    He got a Deal.

    No he didn't. If he got a deal we would be out on the date he said we would be out.

    Just like May...
    Boris got a Deal with the EU. You know, that Deal you told us was impossible to get.

    The one the voters will tell MPs to implement. That one.
    The voters may not tell MPs that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    Scott_P said:

    He got a Deal.

    No he didn't. If he got a deal we would be out on the date he said we would be out.

    Just like May...
    Boris got a Deal with the EU. You know, that Deal you told us was impossible to get.

    The one the voters will tell MPs to implement. That one.
    The voters may not tell MPs that.
    Yes they will.
  • Scott_P said:

    Labour message is so negative and depressing against Boris confident optimistic can do attitude

    BoZo's record is negative against his confident optimistic can do attitude

    He said a bunch of stuff. None of it happened.
    He got to be PM.

    He got a Deal.

    He's got his election.

    Boris Johnson: Man of His Word....
    Happy Brexit Day.

    I mean he said we’d Leave today. Do or die.
    The ditch community begins to breathe a sigh of relief as they realise that they won't have BJ in them.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    Scott_P said:
    But if that sense of betrayal is aimed at those opposition parties who blocked Brexit.....
    We had the Boris Deal after all. They voted for it - then played silly buggers....
    The "Boris Deal" as you call it means selling us out to the Americans. I much prefer the EU. Your Boris has betrayed the country.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,881
    Streeter said:

    Soldiers at Marble Arch station selling poppies and shouting ‘have you got your poppy yet sir?’ to passers by.

    The slow but inexorable drift towards militarism over my lifetime continues.

    I am trying to recall when this fucking pointless shit became so pervasive. I think it was after Iraq II.

    I'll salute anybody who refuses to wear one.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Boris got a Deal with the EU. You know, that Deal you told us was impossible to get.

    Bollocks. I never claimed he couldn't throw the DUP under the bus.

    He got EU approval for a deal that May rejected because it threatens the UK. That's not an achievement.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Roger said:

    Happy Brexit Day Halloween.

    Leavers crawl in search of blood and terrorise the neighbourhood.
    Remainers looking for a dishevilled blond ghoul dead in a ditch....
    That is just unacceptable and an example of why many mps, especially women, are quitting public life

    Totally unnecessary
    Nah. It's Halloween.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Streeter said:

    Soldiers at Marble Arch station selling poppies and shouting ‘have you got your poppy yet sir?’ to passers by.

    The slow but inexorable drift towards militarism over my lifetime continues.

    It must be drifting glacially so unless you live to be 200 I think it'll be fine.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Morning all :)

    So we've got six weeks of everyone jumping round as soon as a poll comes out or someone posts a poll on Twitter or a fake poll appears (there'll be plenty of those) and even worse when someone trails a poll with "Dramatic News In Our Poll Tonight" nonsense.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Dura_Ace said:

    Streeter said:

    Soldiers at Marble Arch station selling poppies and shouting ‘have you got your poppy yet sir?’ to passers by.

    The slow but inexorable drift towards militarism over my lifetime continues.

    I am trying to recall when this fucking pointless shit became so pervasive. I think it was after Iraq II.

    I'll salute anybody who refuses to wear one.
    Its not shit and its not pointless.

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    AndyJS said:
    The YouGov Tory lead becomes 10% - much more like Survation - if you adjust the Green vote share to match by transferring those votes to Labour.

    I've no doubt at all that the Greens will poll well under 5%.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Isn't there a new YouGov in today's TImes?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    edited October 2019
    Streeter said:

    Soldiers at Marble Arch station selling poppies and shouting ‘have you got your poppy yet sir?’ to passers by.

    The slow but inexorable drift towards militarism over my lifetime continues.

    I hope the thrawn, intractable spirit that Brexiteers insist is part of the British character ensured that at least somebody told them to fcuk off?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2019
    Streeter said:

    Soldiers at Marble Arch station selling poppies and shouting ‘have you got your poppy yet sir?’ to passers by.

    The slow but inexorable drift towards militarism over my lifetime continues.

    I dislike this sort of thing. Let people make their own decisions without hectoring them.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Byronic said:

    If i was the tories i would be somewhat concerned with only an 8% lead.

    Why?? Survation is one of the worst pollsters for the Tories (IIRC), we have just come through the broken do-or-die pledge, and the Tories maintain their lead?

    This is pleasing for Boris, if I read it right.
    But if the Tories have already squeezed all their potential support while

    Roger said:

    Contrary to popular opinion Farage and the Brexit Party are likely to benefit Johnson's Tories rather than damage them. Adding weight to the Leave argument during the election campaign will inevitably help the market leader which is Johnson's Tories.

    Actually, that’s something on which you might be right. Being, as it is, based on advertising dynamics of which you have extensive experience.

    It’ll be the Labour share that’s decisive. And that will be in spite of Corbyn this time not because of him. I’m still very far from convinced the Tories will gobble up Labour seats with their new big-spending hats on.

    The voting patterns up there are reflexive, guttural and visceral.
    Agreed. A country with the Brexity Party standing in every seat is a different on to one where they only dare show their faces in a few constituencies.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    Dura_Ace said:

    Streeter said:

    Soldiers at Marble Arch station selling poppies and shouting ‘have you got your poppy yet sir?’ to passers by.

    The slow but inexorable drift towards militarism over my lifetime continues.

    I am trying to recall when this fucking pointless shit became so pervasive. I think it was after Iraq II.

    I'll salute anybody who refuses to wear one.
    Its not shit and its not pointless.

    It is like.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:
    This election will see a lot of dubious and even cynical advice and misdirection on tactical voting, much of it below the radar in the social media equivalent of the old LibDem leaflets.
    Fundamentally, it is difficult to know who to vote for if you're anti-tory.

    Looking at 2017 results is not fair to the lib dems who are polling much better now. Looking at euro results is silly.

    It does seem very strange not to back a Labour incumbent though.

    Trust flavable!

    https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/gb/36/21/18/13/6/3.1/0.3/0.7
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    On topic, I expect Labour to surge as the election focuses minds.

    No way will they poll in the low 20s on the day.

    I agree, unless they're overtaken by the LDs during the campaign, which I think is a possibility.
  • stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    So we've got six weeks of everyone jumping round as soon as a poll comes out or someone posts a poll on Twitter or a fake poll appears (there'll be plenty of those) and even worse when someone trails a poll with "Dramatic News In Our Poll Tonight" nonsense.

    So true
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    Scott_P said:

    He got a Deal.

    No he didn't. If he got a deal we would be out on the date he said we would be out.

    Just like May...
    Boris got a Deal with the EU. You know, that Deal you told us was impossible to get.

    The one the voters will tell MPs to implement. That one.
    I think that’s technically a “proposal”
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    AndyJS said:

    Streeter said:

    Soldiers at Marble Arch station selling poppies and shouting ‘have you got your poppy yet sir?’ to passers by.

    The slow but inexorable drift towards militarism over my lifetime continues.

    I dislike this sort of thing. Let people make their own decisions without hectoring them.
    I love this time of year when people pretend that the tyranny of the poppy sellers is oppressing them or that we are headed to a militaristic society. Its genuinely very funny.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    AndyJS said:
    The YouGov Tory lead becomes 10% - much more like Survation - if you adjust the Green vote share to match by transferring those votes to Labour.

    I've no doubt at all that the Greens will poll well under 5%.
    ? This shows a 15% tory lead
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Emmanuel Goldstein will be feeling pretty small after 6 weeks of anti "elitism" from Corbyn.

    I am hoping the choice of going for 6 weeks negativity is a catastrophic error by Labour.

    Labour message is so negative and depressing against Boris confident optimistic can do attitude

    This election will depend on Boris capturing and winning the votes on the success of his positive campaign
    He had a cheerful, breezy can-do attitude to leaving today. What happened.? There' s nothing behind it, it's all bluster and warm words. People might fall for it but I bet they are going to be severely disappointed by the reality.

    Personally I don't see much to be positive about, we are in a total mess and if I were 20 years younger I'd be out of her.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    So we've got six weeks of everyone jumping round as soon as a poll comes out or someone posts a poll on Twitter or a fake poll appears (there'll be plenty of those) and even worse when someone trails a poll with "Dramatic News In Our Poll Tonight" nonsense.

    Well it passes the time.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    OllyT said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Emmanuel Goldstein will be feeling pretty small after 6 weeks of anti "elitism" from Corbyn.

    I am hoping the choice of going for 6 weeks negativity is a catastrophic error by Labour.

    Labour message is so negative and depressing against Boris confident optimistic can do attitude

    This election will depend on Boris capturing and winning the votes on the success of his positive campaign
    He had a cheerful, breezy can-do attitude to leaving today. What happened.? There' s nothing behind it, it's all bluster and warm words. People might fall for it but I bet they are going to be severely disappointed by the reality.

    Personally I don't see much to be positive about, we are in a total mess and if I were 20 years younger I'd be out of her.
    History is full of tyrants with breezy, can-do attitudes merrily divorced from reality.

    It never ends well.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    OllyT said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Emmanuel Goldstein will be feeling pretty small after 6 weeks of anti "elitism" from Corbyn.

    I am hoping the choice of going for 6 weeks negativity is a catastrophic error by Labour.

    Labour message is so negative and depressing against Boris confident optimistic can do attitude

    This election will depend on Boris capturing and winning the votes on the success of his positive campaign
    He had a cheerful, breezy can-do attitude to leaving today. What happened.? There' s nothing behind it, it's all bluster and warm words. People might fall for it but I bet they are going to be severely disappointed by the reality.

    Personally I don't see much to be positive about, we are in a total mess and if I were 20 years younger I'd be out of her.
    aaah another emigration candidate...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited October 2019

    AndyJS said:
    The YouGov Tory lead becomes 10% - much more like Survation - if you adjust the Green vote share to match by transferring those votes to Labour.

    I've no doubt at all that the Greens will poll well under 5%.
    The more salient point is what happens to the 13% TBP vote if they confirm they are withdrawing from most constituencies including all in Scotland
  • @Dura_Ace It's the first year since I was 5 years old I'm not buying one. Regretably it really has changed as a social phenomenon in the last 10 years and I'm just not accepting the new framing.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414

    Do we think that Corbo’s uncanny resemblance to Father Christmas might give him an unexpected advantage in this seasonal campaign?🎅🏻

    I’m not sure I want him coming down my chimney.

    That sounds a lot bluer than I meant it to.
  • There does appear to be a stunning level of optimism that people will look straight past the BJ bullshit - do or die, dead in a ditch, prepare for no deal and here's NHS cash Mr advertising agency - and go you, he's a man who will die in a ditch to get Brexit done, do or die.

    I know that we know a lot of voters are stupid, they've swallowed all manner of guano over Brexit. But the Tory campaign is basically repeat all the stuff that Johnson has failed to do and say you can trust him to deliver them.

    Really?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Streeter said:

    Soldiers at Marble Arch station selling poppies and shouting ‘have you got your poppy yet sir?’ to passers by.

    The slow but inexorable drift towards militarism over my lifetime continues.

    I dislike this sort of thing. Let people make their own decisions without hectoring them.
    I love this time of year when people pretend that the tyranny of the poppy sellers is oppressing them or that we are headed to a militaristic society. Its genuinely very funny.
    My son’s school has had its “lest we forget” montage up all year, relinquishing the need for the two month hiatus over the summer when we are not poppy bothering.

    There is certainly no chance of anyone forgetting a century old war given the wall to wall fetishisation of it, crowding out mourning for more modern wars, where the losses of friends and family are still recent enough to be raw.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    AndyJS said:

    YouGov with Flavible:

    Con 399
    Lab 142
    SNP 44
    LD 42
    PC 4
    Grn 1

    https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/gb/36/21/18/13/6/3.1/0.3/0.7

    LibDems take Yardley by 7%.

    Cheerio, Jess.....
    Not happening. The Lib Dems will take Uxbridge before they regain Yardley. (That’s not happening either.)
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Dura_Ace said:

    Streeter said:

    Soldiers at Marble Arch station selling poppies and shouting ‘have you got your poppy yet sir?’ to passers by.

    The slow but inexorable drift towards militarism over my lifetime continues.

    I am trying to recall when this fucking pointless shit became so pervasive. I think it was after Iraq II.

    I'll salute anybody who refuses to wear one.
    https://twitter.com/giantpoppywatch?lang=en

    makes the whole thing almost worthwhile.

    God, November is a depressing month. Starts with a popular state-mandated celebration of an act of torture, and goes downhill from there.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    AndyJS said:
    The YouGov Tory lead becomes 10% - much more like Survation - if you adjust the Green vote share to match by transferring those votes to Labour.

    I've no doubt at all that the Greens will poll well under 5%.
    The more salient point is what happens to the 13% TBP vote if they confirm they are withdrawing from most constituencies inclufing all in Scotland
    I suppose the pollsters will have to ask a specific question on them .

    So if they’re not standing in your seat how would you then vote.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    AndyJS said:

    Streeter said:

    Soldiers at Marble Arch station selling poppies and shouting ‘have you got your poppy yet sir?’ to passers by.

    The slow but inexorable drift towards militarism over my lifetime continues.

    I dislike this sort of thing. Let people make their own decisions without hectoring them.
    Quite right and well said. I used to wear a poppy every year. Now, I don’t. The insistence that one has to wear one has put me off. It can only be a few days before a TV presenter gets hauled over the coals for failing their duty.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    There does appear to be a stunning level of optimism that people will look straight past the BJ bullshit - do or die, dead in a ditch, prepare for no deal and here's NHS cash Mr advertising agency - and go you, he's a man who will die in a ditch to get Brexit done, do or die.

    I know that we know a lot of voters are stupid, they've swallowed all manner of guano over Brexit. But the Tory campaign is basically repeat all the stuff that Johnson has failed to do and say you can trust him to deliver them.

    Really?

    44% of voters blame Parliament for the fact we are still in the EU, only 32% blame Boris according to the new Survation poll

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7632443/Boris-Johnson-trusted-Jeremy-Corbyn-new-poll-voters-reveals.html
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    HYUFD said:

    There does appear to be a stunning level of optimism that people will look straight past the BJ bullshit - do or die, dead in a ditch, prepare for no deal and here's NHS cash Mr advertising agency - and go you, he's a man who will die in a ditch to get Brexit done, do or die.

    I know that we know a lot of voters are stupid, they've swallowed all manner of guano over Brexit. But the Tory campaign is basically repeat all the stuff that Johnson has failed to do and say you can trust him to deliver them.

    Really?

    44% of voters blame Parliament for the fact we are still in the EU, only 32% blame Boris according to the new Survation poll

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7632443/Boris-Johnson-trusted-Jeremy-Corbyn-new-poll-voters-reveals.html
    A third of voters blame Boris Bunter. That’s a surprisingly high figure, I agree, given the credulous sycophancy of most leavers. Interesting.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    HYUFD said:

    There does appear to be a stunning level of optimism that people will look straight past the BJ bullshit - do or die, dead in a ditch, prepare for no deal and here's NHS cash Mr advertising agency - and go you, he's a man who will die in a ditch to get Brexit done, do or die.

    I know that we know a lot of voters are stupid, they've swallowed all manner of guano over Brexit. But the Tory campaign is basically repeat all the stuff that Johnson has failed to do and say you can trust him to deliver them.

    Really?

    44% of voters blame Parliament for the fact we are still in the EU, only 32% blame Boris according to the new Survation poll

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7632443/Boris-Johnson-trusted-Jeremy-Corbyn-new-poll-voters-reveals.html
    At the moment anyway.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    Reports this morning about the Twitter ban on political adverts will hurt the Trump campaign. Does anyone know the impact it will have over here - i.e. will it hamper the Tories more than Labour or vice versa?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited October 2019

    AndyJS said:

    Streeter said:

    Soldiers at Marble Arch station selling poppies and shouting ‘have you got your poppy yet sir?’ to passers by.

    The slow but inexorable drift towards militarism over my lifetime continues.

    I dislike this sort of thing. Let people make their own decisions without hectoring them.
    Quite right and well said. I used to wear a poppy every year. Now, I don’t. The insistence that one has to wear one has put me off. It can only be a few days before a TV presenter gets hauled over the coals for failing their duty.
    TV presenters already are if they dont.

    It doesnt make this annual parade of woe is me society is going to hell because if the poppies stuff any less an overreaction and an amusing one at that. Tell you what, I wont wear one and I'll let you know how oppressed I get.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    HYUFD said:

    There does appear to be a stunning level of optimism that people will look straight past the BJ bullshit - do or die, dead in a ditch, prepare for no deal and here's NHS cash Mr advertising agency - and go you, he's a man who will die in a ditch to get Brexit done, do or die.

    I know that we know a lot of voters are stupid, they've swallowed all manner of guano over Brexit. But the Tory campaign is basically repeat all the stuff that Johnson has failed to do and say you can trust him to deliver them.

    Really?

    44% of voters blame Parliament for the fact we are still in the EU, only 32% blame Boris according to the new Survation poll

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7632443/Boris-Johnson-trusted-Jeremy-Corbyn-new-poll-voters-reveals.html
    Blame Parliament in a negative sense? As a Remainer I’d blame Parliament for us having not left yet and be bloody pleased with it too.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,026
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Streeter said:

    Soldiers at Marble Arch station selling poppies and shouting ‘have you got your poppy yet sir?’ to passers by.

    The slow but inexorable drift towards militarism over my lifetime continues.

    I dislike this sort of thing. Let people make their own decisions without hectoring them.
    Quite right and well said. I used to wear a poppy every year. Now, I don’t. The insistence that one has to wear one has put me off. It can only be a few days before a TV presenter gets hauled over the coals for failing their duty.
    TV presenters already are if they dont.

    It doesnt make this annual parade of woe is me society is going to help because if the poppies stuff any less an overreaction and an amusing one at that.
    I wear one for 11 days every year from 1st to 11th November, and have done so for decades.

    I fail to see what all the fuss is about.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    Dura_Ace said: "I am trying to recall when this fucking pointless shit became so pervasive. I think it was after Iraq II.

    I'll salute anybody who refuses to wear one."

    Thank you Dura Ace. About time someone talked some sense over this. I refuse to wear one too. What on earth must visitors to the UK think of our obsession with this militaristic shit.
This discussion has been closed.