I think we (that's CON for those posters who don't know me) are more likely to gain seats in South and Midlands which we held in 2010 rather than seats such as Bishop Auckland which we haven't won since 1931 😈
Or in London where the swing from Labour to the LDs is highest even if the Tory vote largely stands still.
Seats like Enfield Southgate, Eltham, Croydon Central, even Brentford and Isleworth and Enfirld North come into play as a result. All were Tory in 2010 or 2015.
I cannot see the Tories gaining many seats in the North Thatcher or Cameron did not win, though Bishop Auckland may be an exception
Yes indeed Croydon Central. Also Eltham. Maybe not Ealing Central and Acton
The LibDem vote in Croydon Central last time was 1.9% (Labour got 52.3%). It's not a LibDem target (I know residents there and they confirm they're not hearing much from the LibDems) and I doubt if it will become one.
The LDs got 13% in Croydon Central in 2010 and the Tories won it, the LDs got just 1.9% in Croydon Central in 2017 and the Tories lost it
...and what of those that undermined Theresa May, such as the current Leader of the House, and for that matter Bozo himself? Further back if John Major had taken the approach the current leadership have taken the Anti-EU tendency would have been wiped out long ago. It is so so hypocritical
All the old, europhile Tory establishment had to do was offer and deliver one of the many many promised referendums. Maastricht, Lisbon, whatever.
If they had done that, they would have saved themselves, their party, and their country from this nightmare. Brexit would not even exist as a word, as euroscepticism would have been democratically vented and the pressure released.
The Tory europhiles chose not to do that, and chose instead to keep handing over British sovereignty, and sinking Britain deeper into the project, without voter approval.
So now they are reaping what they sowed. It must be bitter and it must be painful, but it is also brutally deserved.
This has nothing to do with any of that. This is about scapegoating immigration and other government policies on the EU because governments of red and blue have been unable to take responsibility and tell the truth.
Britain is not opposed to the European project.
Clearly you missed the *European membership referendum* of June 2016. It was won by the so-called Let's Go side, who got more votes than the so-called Nah, let's not Go-ers.
If I remember correctly, several commenters on this site spoke about this now long-forgotten plebiscite, and it provoked a number of friendly but engaging discussions.
Who could forget that guy who kept changing his mind?
Certainly, for the Conservatives, if you look at the ones standing down, most (not all) seem to be in that category of having been Ministers but now realising they will not get a promotion. In that case, I have little sympathy because they could have decided to reinvent themselves as MPs whose chief concern is their constituencies and fighting for what is good for them but they have not. It clearly shows that many of them are just careerists.
1. BoJo will win a large majority (50+) - the WWC vote will move further to the Tories but the Labour public sector / professional middle class vote will split because of Brexit / anti-semitism. That will let the Tories win seats they should not; 2. There will be some spectacular Lib Dem gains in some of the urban, professional seats that Labour hold in London and the big cities as these voters desert Labour. However, in Remain but wealthy Tory seats in the South, fears over Corbyn and the impact on their wealth will persuade many to stick, reluctantly, with the Conservatives. 3. The SNP will do less well in Scotland than everyone thinks. The main dividing line in Scotland, far more than Brexit, seems to be independence. Pro-Union voters will vote en masse for the candidates likely to keep out the SNP. Ironically, the SNP might be better off downplaying indeyref2; 4. Labour's BAME vote will remain solid. That is likely to make Labour more and more a BAME focused party. That is starting to coming through in the selection of candidates (Poplar, West Midlands). For Labour, it has the advantage of solidifying their vote in urban areas with large ethnic (or, more accurately, Pakistani / Bangladeshi communities) but raises questions about the impact on the WWC base and also communities such as those of Indian heritage and, possibly, Black Christian background
Thanks for the analysis. I agree with most of it, especially Scotland. Tories to hold 10 seats.
MarqueeMark said: "Amber is no loss. She had plenty of time to have sorted out Windrush with generous gestures before it went toxic."
Interesting that you think that.
I`m sorry she`s not standing. Her resigning the whip was strange really, she said that she hadn`t seen evidence that Boris was seeking a deal when she wasn`t on any of the committees involved and it`s obvious that he was seeking a deal.
Shame.
Collective cabinet responsibility works both ways. If you dont trust your cabinet enough to keep them informed on your major policy you cannot expect them to support it blind.
MarqueeMark said: "Amber is no loss. She had plenty of time to have sorted out Windrush with generous gestures before it went toxic."
Interesting that you think that.
I`m sorry she`s not standing. Her resigning the whip was strange really, she said that she hadn`t seen evidence that Boris was seeking a deal when she wasn`t on any of the committees involved and it`s obvious that he was seeking a deal.
Shame.
Agreed it’s a shame.
But it wasn’t obvious, and her resignation is evidence to the contrary. Boris only tried for a deal when the alternatives were boxed off - prior to that he was grandstanding and refusing to engage with the EU at all.
They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.
But, will there be debates?
There should be. Let's hope there are.
Issue is format. You know that SKY and Channel 4 will just want a format that stands most chance of damaging Boris. Which means having about 11 party leaders, all vying to take most lumps out of him. Farage? Sure. DUP? The more the merrier. Greta? Be our guest.....
The potential PMs please. Boris v. Corbyn. That would be worth a watch. The rest? Nah....
I'd say Swinson has a better chance of becoming PM than Corbyn.
She's second favourite behind Corbyn to be next PM.
She is shrewd and tough and PM material.
She'd make a nice pair of shoes
She isn't old enough to be post menopause surely (PM)
There is a line where reasonable push-back by an MP on a policy area becomes something much more serious and frankly unacceptable.
I would be perfectly happy to go out campaigning for a good number of those who had the whip withdrawn but I would find it challenging to make the same commitment to the likes of Grieve, Hammond and Rudd.
The leadership also need to take in to account the morale of the members as the campaign kicks off, and re-admitting MPs who clearly could not be relied upon in future votes on a FTA would be demoralizing to say the least.
It is unfortunate but in the best interests of both sides.
...and what of those that undermined Theresa May, such as the current Leader of the House, and for that matter Bozo himself? Further back if John Major had taken the approach the current leadership have taken the Anti-EU tendency would have been wiped out long ago. It is so so hypocritical
All the old, europhile Tory establishment had to do was offer and deliver one of the many many promised referendums. Maastricht, Lisbon, whatever.
If they had done that, they would have saved themselves, their party, and their country from this nightmare. Brexit would not even exist as a word, as euroscepticism would have been democratically vented and the pressure released.
The Tory europhiles chose not to do that, and chose instead to keep handing over British sovereignty, and sinking Britain deeper into the project, without voter approval.
So now they are reaping what they sowed. It must be bitter and it must be painful, but it is also brutally deserved.
Don't be daft. For a start there weren't any 'Tory Europhiles' apart from Michael Heseltine and Ken Clarke, whose influence on EU policy since the 1990s has been zero. Secondly, even if that weren't the case, how on earth would this mysterious 'Tory Europhile establishment' have delivered a referendum on Lisbon given that it was ratified by Labour? And thirdly, when we finally did get a Conservative government, far from 'handing over British sovereignty, and sinking Britain deeper into the project, without voter approval', it did the diametric opposite: it reached agreement to halt the transfer, and did ask for voter approval.
Unfortunately the voter approval wasn't forthcoming, but that's the voters' fault.
Mr. B, it'd seem odd for Honda to leave after they struggled for so long and now have an engine comparable to the others.
Changing corporate priorities. Honda's plans are for all electric by 2022; it's not clear how F1 fits into that strategy, and it is enormously expensive marketing with no certain return.
Are we about to see the second ever majority government with just 35% of the vote? If it ends up something like Con 35, Lab 26, LD 18, BREX 10
Yes, Tony Blair won a very comfortable 66 seat majority in 2005 with 35%.
The BBC did a vox pop at lunchtime with three "labour voters" oop North.. Two said they were going to vote Tory, one said he kind of liked Boris, the second said he just wanted Brexit done so would vote Tory, the third was dyed in the wool Labour voter who said he would vote Labour come what may, (not Mrs May I hasten to add). I think they interviewed them in Workington?
I think we (that's CON for those posters who don't know me) are more likely to gain seats in South and Midlands which we held in 2010 rather than seats such as Bishop Auckland which we haven't won since 1931 😈
Or in London where the swing from Labour to the LDs is highest even if the Tory vote largely stands still.
Seats like Enfield Southgate, Eltham, Croydon Central, even Brentford and Isleworth and Enfirld North come into play as a result. All were Tory in 2010 or 2015.
I cannot see the Tories gaining many seats in the North Thatcher or Cameron did not win, though Bishop Auckland may be an exception
Yes indeed Croydon Central. Also Eltham. Maybe not Ealing Central and Acton
If Ealing Central and Acton goes blue it is a Boris landslide
If ECA goes blue it is about likely as Watford staying up!
It's funny: in Trieste you're almost welcomed as a guest of honour by the locals because they don't have many tourists but like to think of themselves as an important international city, and so therefore it's one of those rare places where they're actually pleased to see visitors. In Venice it's obviously the complete opposite — tourists get treated like sh*t because of course there are too many of them by a factor of about a million. And it's only a relatively short train journey between the two places.
I’ve never been to Venice and have precious little desire to go. I hear very similar stories about how people didn’t enjoy it.
I’m interested in Trieste for all sorts of historical and cultural reasons.
Are we about to see the second ever majority government with just 35% of the vote? If it ends up something like Con 35, Lab 26, LD 18, BREX 10
Yes, Tony Blair won a very comfortable 66 seat majority in 2005 with 35%.
The BBC did a vox pop at lunchtime with three "labour voters" oop North.. Two said they were going to vote Tory, one said he kind of liked Boris, the second said he just wanted Brexit done so would vote Tory, the third was dyed in the wool Labour voter who said he would vote Labour come what may, (not Mrs May I hasten to add). I think they interviewed them in Workington?
I think it was Middlesborough. I caught the end of it.
I think we (that's CON for those posters who don't know me) are more likely to gain seats in South and Midlands which we held in 2010 rather than seats such as Bishop Auckland which we haven't won since 1931 😈
Or in London where the swing from Labour to the LDs is highest even if the Tory vote largely stands still.
Seats like Enfield Southgate, Eltham, Croydon Central, even Brentford and Isleworth and Enfirld North come into play as a result. All were Tory in 2010 or 2015.
I cannot see the Tories gaining many seats in the North Thatcher or Cameron did not win, though Bishop Auckland may be an exception
I think it is wrong to write off the North for Tory gains. Durham has seen a c. 10% swing to the Tories from 2005 to 2017, similar for Cumbria. Where the Tories may struggle more in the North is in some of the larger towns where there is likely to be a sizeable public sector vote that will not support them. However, if that block switches to the LDs / Greens because of Corbyn's Brexit stance / anti-semitism, some of what HYFUD suggests may happen in London, with Tories picking up seats as their vote stands still and Labour's falls, may happen in the North.
In 2017 the Tories anticipated a clean sweep of the Cumbria seats and deployed resources there. Barrow stayed Labour by about 200, and Farron held on in W&L by a couple of hundred as well. Workington saw a big increase in the Tory vote but was about 4,000 Labour majority.
I think generally in 2017 in many of those WWC seats, Labour held on because there was a degree of the "Labour till I die" attitude still there. Being brutal, death have probably taken some of those voters and Brexit has taken others. One big issue that could make this election very volatile in terms of seat changes is that a disproportionate number have very small majorities. It won't take much in terms of voters switching / staying at home to change the seats.
Old frothing brexit supporting tories have also died since 2017.
No doubt. But the Tories have the advantage that all generations usually care about their wealth. For many people, that means they will vote Tory to hold off Corbyn.
Good posts thank you.
Or LD in Lab held seats. And not only Tories. My anecdote for the day is a previous strong Lab supporter has just joined the LDs in a Lab held seat.
Will UKIP ever just fold or are they going to find someone else now after Dick Braine?
Did you know, that after Kilroy-Silk set up Veritas in early 2005, and the resigned about six months later (when he realised no one was interested in his vanity project) that the party survived another eight years under various leaders before finally being folded up into the English Democrats in 2013.
I could easily see UKIP surviving another decade or so before finally being wound up. It still has some 'history' behind it and a lot of successes between 2010 and 2016 that might mean something to someone somewhere.
How many Candidates do we think UKIP will stand this time? 100 maybe less?
I suspect that the 0.5-1.0% they are getting in the opinion poles will transfer to Brexit, in the other 550 ish seats, not that will make a lot of difference.
It's funny: in Trieste you're almost welcomed as a guest of honour by the locals because they don't have many tourists but like to think of themselves as an important international city, and so therefore it's one of those rare places where they're actually pleased to see visitors. In Venice it's obviously the complete opposite — tourists get treated like sh*t because of course there are too many of them by a factor of about a million. And it's only a relatively short train journey between the two places.
Yes. There are lots of places a short train ride from Venice that are a joy to visit, such as Treviso or Padua.
I passed through Padua when I was in Barcelona last week. "What are you on about, Sunil?" I hear you ask!
Simples:
Padua is a station on Barcelona Metro line L7, from the city centre to Avenue of Tibidabo (for connections to the hill-top church).
I think we (that's CON for those posters who don't know me) are more likely to gain seats in South and Midlands which we held in 2010 rather than seats such as Bishop Auckland which we haven't won since 1931 😈
Or in London where the swing from Labour to the LDs is highest even if the Tory vote largely stands still.
Seats like Enfield Southgate, Eltham, Croydon Central, even Brentford and Isleworth and Enfirld North come into play as a result. All were Tory in 2010 or 2015.
I cannot see the Tories gaining many seats in the North Thatcher or Cameron did not win, though Bishop Auckland may be an exception
I think it is wrong to write off the North for Tory gains. Durham has seen a c. 10% swing to the Tories from 2005 to 2017, similar for Cumbria. Where the Tories may struggle more in the North is in some of the larger towns where there is likely to be a sizeable public sector vote that will not support them. However, if that block switches to the LDs / Greens because of Corbyn's Brexit stance / anti-semitism, some of what HYFUD suggests may happen in London, with Tories picking up seats as their vote stands still and Labour's falls, may happen in the North.
In 2017 the Tories anticipated a clean sweep of the Cumbria seats and deployed resources there. Barrow stayed Labour by about 200, and Farron held on in W&L by a couple of hundred as well. Workington saw a big increase in the Tory vote but was about 4,000 Labour majority.
I think generally in 2017 in many of those WWC seats, Labour held on because there was a degree of the "Labour till I die" attitude still there. Being brutal, death have probably taken some of those voters and Brexit has taken others. One big issue that could make this election very volatile in terms of seat changes is that a disproportionate number have very small majorities. It won't take much in terms of voters switching / staying at home to change the seats.
Old frothing brexit supporting tories have also died since 2017.
The Tories now lead Labour with 35 to 44s again under Boris in the latest polls, they did not under May, they did under Cameron
Ploppikins said: "Are we about to see the second ever majority government with just 35% of the vote? If it ends up something like Con 35, Lab 26, LD 18, BREX 10"
The two big dynamics in play will be: 1) LDs taking votes from Lab and 2) BXP taking votes from Con.
If rumours today are true that BXP will only stand in a few seats where Tories have no chance then Tories are on course for a sizeable majority.
I think we (that's CON for those posters who don't know me) are more likely to gain seats in South and Midlands which we held in 2010 rather than seats such as Bishop Auckland which we haven't won since 1931 😈
Or in London where the swing from Labour to the LDs is highest even if the Tory vote largely stands still.
Seats like Enfield Southgate, Eltham, Croydon Central, even Brentford and Isleworth and Enfirld North come into play as a result. All were Tory in 2010 or 2015.
I cannot see the Tories gaining many seats in the North Thatcher or Cameron did not win, though Bishop Auckland may be an exception
Yes indeed Croydon Central. Also Eltham. Maybe not Ealing Central and Acton
If Ealing Central and Acton goes blue it is a Boris landslide
If ECA goes blue it is about likely as Watford staying up!
Mr. B, it'd seem odd for Honda to leave after they struggled for so long and now have an engine comparable to the others.
Changing corporate priorities. Honda's plans are for all electric by 2022; it's not clear how F1 fits into that strategy, and it is enormously expensive marketing with no certain return.
Are we about to see the second ever majority government with just 35% of the vote? If it ends up something like Con 35, Lab 26, LD 18, BREX 10
Yes, Tony Blair won a very comfortable 66 seat majority in 2005 with 35%.
Tony Blair had much more than 326 MPs seeking re-election. Labour would have found it hard to lose in 2005. The Tories had something like 166 seats in 2001. The Tories had no chance of winning and the sheer number of incumbents from 2001 warped the following election result IMO. Added to which, the swing was primarily from Labour to LD, with the Tories benefiting by coming through the middle in some seats.
Given the above I doubt the Tories are going to win a majority on 35% of the vote as the smaller parties will eat into the Tories seat numbers this time where as the reverse was the case in 2015 for instance.
It's funny: in Trieste you're almost welcomed as a guest of honour by the locals because they don't have many tourists but like to think of themselves as an important international city, and so therefore it's one of those rare places where they're actually pleased to see visitors. In Venice it's obviously the complete opposite — tourists get treated like sh*t because of course there are too many of them by a factor of about a million. And it's only a relatively short train journey between the two places.
I’ve never been to Venice and have precious little desire to go. I hear very similar stories about how people didn’t enjoy it.
I’m interested in Trieste for all sorts of historical and cultural reasons.
Venice is absolutely fantastic, magical. Yes, the crowds are appalling, but you don't have to go very far away from St Mark's Square to get away from them.
I think we (that's CON for those posters who don't know me) are more likely to gain seats in South and Midlands which we held in 2010 rather than seats such as Bishop Auckland which we haven't won since 1931 😈
Or in London where the swing from Labour to the LDs is highest even if the Tory vote largely stands still.
Seats like Enfield Southgate, Eltham, Croydon Central, even Brentford and Isleworth and Enfirld North come into play as a result. All were Tory in 2010 or 2015.
I cannot see the Tories gaining many seats in the North Thatcher or Cameron did not win, though Bishop Auckland may be an exception
Yes indeed Croydon Central. Also Eltham. Maybe not Ealing Central and Acton
The LibDem vote in Croydon Central last time was 1.9% (Labour got 52.3%). It's not a LibDem target (I know residents there and they confirm they're not hearing much from the LibDems) and I doubt if it will become one.
The LDs got 13% in Croydon Central in 2010 and the Tories won it, the LDs got just 1.9% in Croydon Central in 2017 and the Tories lost it
Those sorts of comparisons could be misleading. The Lib Dem vote in 2010 was much less ex-Tory than it is now.
Just saw an interview with Corbyn and he came across pretty well: confident, relaxed, not arrogant, calm, reasonable in tone.
This is the problem for the Tories: because Corbyn never expected to be in this position in a million years, until 2015, the whole situation of him being leader is like a bonus for him and his supporters. So they don't appear worried at all. And that actually comes across quite well to voters.
It's funny: in Trieste you're almost welcomed as a guest of honour by the locals because they don't have many tourists but like to think of themselves as an important international city, and so therefore it's one of those rare places where they're actually pleased to see visitors. In Venice it's obviously the complete opposite — tourists get treated like sh*t because of course there are too many of them by a factor of about a million. And it's only a relatively short train journey between the two places.
I’ve never been to Venice and have precious little desire to go. I hear very similar stories about how people didn’t enjoy it.
I’m interested in Trieste for all sorts of historical and cultural reasons.
Trieste is great, James Joyce made a fine choice.
But no man should live an entire life without seeing Venice. Go in the late autumn or late winter (avoid Christmas or carnival) when it is at its loneliest, rainiest and most evocatively beautiful. A phantom city, in the dying rain, floating on the dark seas of nothing. Sublime.
It's funny: in Trieste you're almost welcomed as a guest of honour by the locals because they don't have many tourists but like to think of themselves as an important international city, and so therefore it's one of those rare places where they're actually pleased to see visitors. In Venice it's obviously the complete opposite — tourists get treated like sh*t because of course there are too many of them by a factor of about a million. And it's only a relatively short train journey between the two places.
Yes. There are lots of places a short train ride from Venice that are a joy to visit, such as Treviso or Padua.
I passed through Padua when I was in Barcelona last week. "What are you on about, Sunil?" I hear you ask!
Simples:
Padua is a station on Barcelona Metro line L7, from the city centre to Avenue of Tibidabo (for connections to the hill-top church).
MarqueeMark said: "Amber is no loss. She had plenty of time to have sorted out Windrush with generous gestures before it went toxic."
Interesting that you think that.
I`m sorry she`s not standing. Her resigning the whip was strange really, she said that she hadn`t seen evidence that Boris was seeking a deal when she wasn`t on any of the committees involved and it`s obvious that he was seeking a deal.
Shame.
Agreed it’s a shame.
But it wasn’t obvious, and her resignation is evidence to the contrary. Boris only tried for a deal when the alternatives were boxed off - prior to that he was grandstanding and refusing to engage with the EU at all.
I really do find it incredible that clearly intelligent people seriously think the Benn act forced Johnson to negotiate, given the evidence. The EU were also grandstanding and refusing to engage - what on earth made them change their minds?
Johnson has never given even a hint of a suggestion that he thought No Deal was a preferred outcome; it's absolutely clear (to me, at least) that everything he said was part of a strategy for changing the narrative and getting a deal agreed.
Are we about to see the second ever majority government with just 35% of the vote? If it ends up something like Con 35, Lab 26, LD 18, BREX 10
Yes, Tony Blair won a very comfortable 66 seat majority in 2005 with 35%.
The BBC did a vox pop at lunchtime with three "labour voters" oop North.. Two said they were going to vote Tory, one said he kind of liked Boris, the second said he just wanted Brexit done so would vote Tory, the third was dyed in the wool Labour voter who said he would vote Labour come what may, (not Mrs May I hasten to add). I think they interviewed them in Workington?
I think it was Middlesborough. I caught the end of it.
Oh well that's it then Corbyn may as well give up now.
I think we (that's CON for those posters who don't know me) are more likely to gain seats in South and Midlands which we held in 2010 rather than seats such as Bishop Auckland which we haven't won since 1931 😈
Or in London where the swing from Labour to the LDs is highest even if the Tory vote largely stands still.
Seats like Enfield Southgate, Eltham, Croydon Central, even Brentford and Isleworth and Enfirld North come into play as a result. All were Tory in 2010 or 2015.
I cannot see the Tories gaining many seats in the North Thatcher or Cameron did not win, though Bishop Auckland may be an exception
Yes indeed Croydon Central. Also Eltham. Maybe not Ealing Central and Acton
If Ealing Central and Acton goes blue it is a Boris landslide
If ECA goes blue it is about likely as Watford staying up!
It was a super marginal in 2017. The incumbent has been in an anti Semitic story so not impossible. Watford meanwhile...
I think we (that's CON for those posters who don't know me) are more likely to gain seats in South and Midlands which we held in 2010 rather than seats such as Bishop Auckland which we haven't won since 1931 😈
Or in London where the swing from Labour to the LDs is highest even if the Tory vote largely stands still.
Seats like Enfield Southgate, Eltham, Croydon Central, even Brentford and Isleworth and Enfirld North come into play as a result. All were Tory in 2010 or 2015.
I cannot see the Tories gaining many seats in the North Thatcher or Cameron did not win, though Bishop Auckland may be an exception
Yes indeed Croydon Central. Also Eltham. Maybe not Ealing Central and Acton
The LibDem vote in Croydon Central last time was 1.9% (Labour got 52.3%). It's not a LibDem target (I know residents there and they confirm they're not hearing much from the LibDems) and I doubt if it will become one.
The LDs got 13% in Croydon Central in 2010 and the Tories won it, the LDs got just 1.9% in Croydon Central in 2017 and the Tories lost it
Those sorts of comparisons could be misleading. The Lib Dem vote in 2010 was much less ex-Tory than it is now.
Most of the defections to the LDs since 2017 have come from Labour
I think we (that's CON for those posters who don't know me) are more likely to gain seats in South and Midlands which we held in 2010 rather than seats such as Bishop Auckland which we haven't won since 1931 😈
I think it is wrong to write off the North for Tory gains. Durham has seen a c. 10% swing to the Tories from 2005 to 2017, similar for Cumbria. Where the Tories may struggle more in the North is in some of the larger towns where there is likely to be a sizeable public sector vote that will not support them. However, if that block switches to the LDs / Greens because of Corbyn's Brexit stance / anti-semitism, some of what HYFUD suggests may happen in London, with Tories picking up seats as their vote stands still and Labour's falls, may happen in the North.
In 2017 the Tories anticipated a clean sweep of the Cumbria seats and deployed resources there. Barrow stayed Labour by about 200, and Farron held on in W&L by a couple of hundred as well. Workington saw a big increase in the Tory vote but was about 4,000 Labour majority.
I think generally in 2017 in many of those WWC seats, Labour held on because there was a degree of the "Labour till I die" attitude still there. Being brutal, death have probably taken some of those voters and Brexit has taken others. One big issue that could make this election very volatile in terms of seat changes is that a disproportionate number have very small majorities. It won't take much in terms of voters switching / staying at home to change the seats.
Old frothing brexit supporting tories have also died since 2017.
No doubt. But the Tories have the advantage that all generations usually care about their wealth. For many people, that means they will vote Tory to hold off Corbyn.
The younger generations are frozen out from wealth by extreme house prices, low wages and student debt. One of the tory cheerleaders on here last week was saying they should wait until their sixties when they might inherit a house deposit from their rich parents as if this was some great opportunity.
You dont get many capitalists who not only dont have capital but cant see a path to accumulating it. What on earth has happened to the party of business and opportunity that it is now f. business, experts and good jobs?
Endillion said: "Johnson has never given even a hint of a suggestion that he thought No Deal was a preferred outcome; it's absolutely clear (to me, at least) that everything he said was part of a strategy for changing the narrative and getting a deal agreed."
I tend to agree with you, but I guess we will never know for sure. Cummings wanted a deal for sure and I think it very likely that Boris always did too.
Just saw an interview with Corbyn and he came across pretty well: confident, relaxed, not arrogant, calm, reasonable in tone.
This is the problem for the Tories: because Corbyn never expected to be in this position in a million years, until 2015, the whole situation of him being leader is like a bonus for him and his supporters. So they don't appear worried at all. And that actually comes across quite well to voters.
1. BoJo will win a large majority (50+) - the WWC vote will move further to the Tories but the Labour public sector / professional middle class vote will split because of Brexit / anti-semitism. That will let the Tories win seats they should not; 2. There will be some spectacular Lib Dem gains in some of the urban, professional seats that Labour hold in London and the big cities as these voters desert Labour. However, in Remain but wealthy Tory seats in the South, fears over Corbyn and the impact on their wealth will persuade many to stick, reluctantly, with the Conservatives. 3. The SNP will do less well in Scotland than everyone thinks. The main dividing line in Scotland, far more than Brexit, seems to be independence. Pro-Union voters will vote en masse for the candidates likely to keep out the SNP. Ironically, the SNP might be better off downplaying indeyref2; 4. Labour's BAME vote will remain solid. That is likely to make Labour more and more a BAME focused party. That is starting to coming through in the selection of candidates (Poplar, West Midlands). For Labour, it has the advantage of solidifying their vote in urban areas with large ethnic (or, more accurately, Pakistani / Bangladeshi communities) but raises questions about the impact on the WWC base and also communities such as those of Indian heritage and, possibly, Black Christian background
Thanks for the analysis. I agree with most of it, especially Scotland. Tories to hold 10 seats.
Corbyn has just destroyed Scottish Labour so unionists now only have two choices: LD or Tory.
Any chance the BBC could visit places that voted Remain who hate the Tories or will we be subjected to 5 weeks of voters from just Leave areas who think Bozo is the next Messiah .
It's funny: in Trieste you're almost welcomed as a guest of honour by the locals because they don't have many tourists but like to think of themselves as an important international city, and so therefore it's one of those rare places where they're actually pleased to see visitors. In Venice it's obviously the complete opposite — tourists get treated like sh*t because of course there are too many of them by a factor of about a million. And it's only a relatively short train journey between the two places.
I’ve never been to Venice and have precious little desire to go. I hear very similar stories about how people didn’t enjoy it.
I’m interested in Trieste for all sorts of historical and cultural reasons.
Venice is absolutely fantastic, magical. Yes, the crowds are appalling, but you don't have to go very far away from St Mark's Square to get away from them.
Hmm. I’ve heard contradictory things.
If I did go I’d do it in a day trip out-of-season.
I think we (that's CON for those posters who don't know me) are more likely to gain seats in South and Midlands which we held in 2010 rather than seats such as Bishop Auckland which we haven't won since 1931 😈
Or in London where the swing from Labour to the LDs is highest even if the Tory vote largely stands still.
Seats like Enfield Southgate, Eltham, Croydon Central, even Brentford and Isleworth and Enfirld North come into play as a result. All were Tory in 2010 or 2015.
I cannot see the Tories gaining many seats in the North Thatcher or Cameron did not win, though Bishop Auckland may be an exception
I think it is wrong to write off the North for Tory gains. Durham has seen a c. 10% swing to the Tories from 2005 to 2017, similar for Cumbria. Where the Tories may struggle more in the North is in some of the larger towns where there is likely to be a sizeable public sector vote that will not support them. However, if that block switches to the LDs / Greens because of Corbyn's Brexit stance / anti-semitism, some of what HYFUD suggests may happen in London, with Tories picking up seats as their vote stands still and Labour's falls, may happen in the North.
In 2017 the Tories anticipated a clean sweep of the Cumbria seats and deployed resources there. Barrow stayed Labour by about 200, and Farron held on in W&L by a couple of hundred as well. Workington saw a big increase in the Tory vote but was about 4,000 Labour majority.
I think generally in 2017 in many of those WWC seats, Labour held on because there was a degree of the "Labour till I die" attitude still there. Being brutal, death have probably taken some of those voters and Brexit has taken others. One big issue that could make this election very volatile in terms of seat changes is that a disproportionate number have very small majorities. It won't take much in terms of voters switching / staying at home to change the seats.
Old frothing brexit supporting tories have also died since 2017.
The Tories now lead Labour with 35 to 44s again under Boris in the latest polls, they did not under May, they did under Cameron
When you say the Tories didn't lead with 35-44s under May is that at GE2017, the European elections, or in the opinion polls just before the start of the GE2017 campaign?
Just saw an interview with Corbyn and he came across pretty well: confident, relaxed, not arrogant, calm, reasonable in tone.
This is the problem for the Tories: because Corbyn never expected to be in this position in a million years, until 2015, the whole situation of him being leader is like a bonus for him and his supporters. So they don't appear worried at all. And that actually comes across quite well to voters.
I think Corbyn comes across better than BJ, Corbyn actually cares about people where as Boris just cares about himself....
I think we (that's CON for those posters who don't know me) are more likely to gain seats in South and Midlands which we held in 2010 rather than seats such as Bishop Auckland which we haven't won since 1931 😈
Or in London where the swing from Labour to the LDs is highest even if the Tory vote largely stands still.
Seats like Enfield Southgate, Eltham, Croydon Central, even Brentford and Isleworth and Enfirld North come into play as a result. All were Tory in 2010 or 2015.
I cannot see the Tories gaining many seats in the North Thatcher or Cameron did not win, though Bishop Auckland may be an exception
Yes indeed Croydon Central. Also Eltham. Maybe not Ealing Central and Acton
If Ealing Central and Acton goes blue it is a Boris landslide
If ECA goes blue it is about likely as Watford staying up!
It was a super marginal in 2017. The incumbent has been in an anti Semitic story so not impossible. Watford meanwhile...
Watford aiming to beat the Derby. Relegated with 11 points a while ago. Derby North looking good cheerio Williamson (what party is he now?)
Just received below from Farage on behalf of BXP. I wonder if "clear out the Remainer Parliament and win a majority for Brexit" is a hint that BXP won`t contest seats which would damange Tories?
"We are facing a General Election that could finally decide the battle for Brexit.
That’s why I am asking for your support today. We need your help to make sure we get the Brexit that 17.4m of us voted for three and a half years ago.
Click Here to Donate
It was thanks to your support that The Brexit Party won the European elections in May, got rid of the worst prime minister in memory, and put Brexit back at the top of the agenda. Within six weeks of our launch, more than 100,000 of you signed up as registered supporters and enabled us to become the biggest party in the European Parliament.
That truly was the £25 election. Now we need your support again. We are standing in the General Election on December 12th to fight for Brexit and give the 17.4m a voice.
We have a big challenge on our hands to clear out the Remainer Parliament and win a majority for Brexit. Our hard-working team need all the help they can get. We have plans for campaigns across the mainstream and social media, along with billboards, leaflets, newspapers — and TV broadcasts like the recent one that was seen by millions.
We have all waited far too long for the Brexit we were promised. Let’s not settle for anything less now. Please give what you can to help us to fight the Brexit General Election and change politics for good.
Thank you for your continuing support. There will be no real Brexit without us. And we cannot do it without you."
I really do find it incredible that clearly intelligent people seriously think the Benn act forced Johnson to negotiate, given the evidence. The EU were also grandstanding and refusing to engage - what on earth made them change their minds?
Eh? What made them 'change their minds' as you put it was that Boris caved in completely, abandoned his 'final offer' (involving border checks between NI and the Republic) of just a week or two before, and went back to the EU's original opening offer on Ireland. At the same time he completely abandoned all his other objections to the WA. Of course they accepted that, since from their point of view it was miles better than Theresa May's deal, and the legal texts could be rapidly revived from the old drafts.
Mr. B, it'd seem odd for Honda to leave after they struggled for so long and now have an engine comparable to the others.
Changing corporate priorities. Honda's plans are for all electric by 2022; it's not clear how F1 fits into that strategy, and it is enormously expensive marketing with no certain return.
Surely F1 will go electric soon?
Perhaps, but such a development threatens to remove everything that makes it distinctive.
It's funny: in Trieste you're almost welcomed as a guest of honour by the locals because they don't have many tourists but like to think of themselves as an important international city, and so therefore it's one of those rare places where they're actually pleased to see visitors. In Venice it's obviously the complete opposite — tourists get treated like sh*t because of course there are too many of them by a factor of about a million. And it's only a relatively short train journey between the two places.
I’ve never been to Venice and have precious little desire to go. I hear very similar stories about how people didn’t enjoy it.
I’m interested in Trieste for all sorts of historical and cultural reasons.
Venice is absolutely fantastic, magical. Yes, the crowds are appalling, but you don't have to go very far away from St Mark's Square to get away from them.
Hmm. I’ve heard contradictory things.
If I did go I’d do it in a day trip out-of-season.
Not too fussed.
Much better this time of year. Far fewer tourists, moody fogs, nowhere near as smelly.... It is one of the weirder wonders of the world. I am always reminded of the character in Monty Python and the Holy Grail. "They said I was mad to build it in a swamp...."
I really do find it incredible that clearly intelligent people seriously think the Benn act forced Johnson to negotiate, given the evidence. The EU were also grandstanding and refusing to engage - what on earth made them change their minds?
Eh? What made them 'change their minds' as you put it was that Boris caved in completely, abandoned his 'final offer' (involving border checks between NI and the Republic) of just a week or two before, and went back to the EU's original opening offer on Ireland. At the same time he completely abandoned all his other objections to the WA. Of course they accepted that, since from their point of view it was miles better than Theresa May's deal, and the legal texts could be rapidly revived from the old drafts.
A lot of leavers dont want to deal in facts but prefer simple narratives. The narrative that Boris and our lot just won and the EU backed down is preferable to understanding the details of the deal.
It's funny: in Trieste you're almost welcomed as a guest of honour by the locals because they don't have many tourists but like to think of themselves as an important international city, and so therefore it's one of those rare places where they're actually pleased to see visitors. In Venice it's obviously the complete opposite — tourists get treated like sh*t because of course there are too many of them by a factor of about a million. And it's only a relatively short train journey between the two places.
I’ve never been to Venice and have precious little desire to go. I hear very similar stories about how people didn’t enjoy it.
I’m interested in Trieste for all sorts of historical and cultural reasons.
Venice is absolutely fantastic, magical. Yes, the crowds are appalling, but you don't have to go very far away from St Mark's Square to get away from them.
Hmm. I’ve heard contradictory things.
If I did go I’d do it in a day trip out-of-season.
Not too fussed.
Venice is one of my favourite places on Earth. Beautiful, historic, *different*. Richard is absolutely right that you just need to go where the crowds aren't. There's a few main routes that are packed out, between the station, the Rialto and St Mark's, but away from them there are very few tourists indeed. And there is so much to see that the hordes never go to. Last time we were there, we went for a wander and randomly found a scuola that was packed full of amazing art, and we were the only people there! And this was in August.
Just saw an interview with Corbyn and he came across pretty well: confident, relaxed, not arrogant, calm, reasonable in tone.
This is the problem for the Tories: because Corbyn never expected to be in this position in a million years, until 2015, the whole situation of him being leader is like a bonus for him and his supporters. So they don't appear worried at all. And that actually comes across quite well to voters.
I think Corbyn comes across better than BJ, Corbyn actually cares about people where as Boris just cares about himself....
"Boris just cares about himself"
That is the lie that will get nailed this election.
noneoftheabove said: "A lot of leavers dont want to deal in facts but prefer simple narratives. The narrative that Boris and our lot just won and the EU backed down is preferable to understanding the details of the deal."
Mr. B, it'd seem odd for Honda to leave after they struggled for so long and now have an engine comparable to the others.
Changing corporate priorities. Honda's plans are for all electric by 2022; it's not clear how F1 fits into that strategy, and it is enormously expensive marketing with no certain return.
Surely F1 will go electric soon?
Perhaps, but such a development threatens to remove everything that makes it distinctive.
Why? What makes it distinctive is fast cars, not burning oil.
LD under 50 seats is 8/13 at Coral. Value. I remember Meeks tipping the LD unders in 2017. It was about 37 when the campaign began.
Con most votes at 1/6 looks good too.
BXP no seats is better than evens. Value.
Massive outside punt? Gove PM on new year's Day. Requires Con Maj (evens), Gove holding Surrey heath (1/100) and Boris losing Uxbridge (5/1), so implied 10/1. It's 50/1.
Dyor, tastier odds likely available on the exchanges from the to time.
noneoftheabove said: "A lot of leavers dont want to deal in facts but prefer simple narratives. The narrative that Boris and our lot just won and the EU backed down is preferable to understanding the details of the deal."
My first anecdote of the campaign. While shopping in Morrisons this morning I met a former Conservative councillor and her husband. Our constituency was a Labour gain from Conservative in 2017. I said I thought they would win it back this time based on the opinion polls. They were convinced Labour would increase their majority. The reason? The Conservative organisation had collapsed while Labour's had strengthened. It's the ground game argument again.
The ground game which was supposed to make Ed Miliband PM.
As a former councillor not a current councillor he also sounds out if the loop and someone who cannot be bothered to help anyway
Some Labour activists seem to treat door knocking like those step counters, counting up the number of doors they are doing without worrying too much about why they are doing it.
Different seat by seat. A Tory friend who was working on Labour marginal seats last time in the North West said they thought they had hit their target numbers and were floored on the election night at the size of the Labour vote coming in coming in from the council estate wards and that Labour did well last time getting their core vote out.
Just saw an interview with Corbyn and he came across pretty well: confident, relaxed, not arrogant, calm, reasonable in tone.
This is the problem for the Tories: because Corbyn never expected to be in this position in a million years, until 2015, the whole situation of him being leader is like a bonus for him and his supporters. So they don't appear worried at all. And that actually comes across quite well to voters.
I think Corbyn comes across better than BJ, Corbyn actually cares about people where as Boris just cares about himself....
Corbyn is more human than Bozo - you know where you are with him. You might not like where you are, but you know you are there. Bozo is all bluster and bullshit.
It's funny: in Trieste you're almost welcomed as a guest of honour by the locals because they don't have many tourists but like to think of themselves as an important international city, and so therefore it's one of those rare places where they're actually pleased to see visitors. In Venice it's obviously the complete opposite — tourists get treated like sh*t because of course there are too many of them by a factor of about a million. And it's only a relatively short train journey between the two places.
I’ve never been to Venice and have precious little desire to go. I hear very similar stories about how people didn’t enjoy it.
I’m interested in Trieste for all sorts of historical and cultural reasons.
Venice is absolutely fantastic, magical. Yes, the crowds are appalling, but you don't have to go very far away from St Mark's Square to get away from them.
Hmm. I’ve heard contradictory things.
If I did go I’d do it in a day trip out-of-season.
Not too fussed.
No, don't go on a day trip. What you need to do is find a really nice small expensive hotel slightly away from the crowds, accessible by water (which many are), and arrive at night by boat from the airport. The sight of the illuminated churches and palaces of Venice floating in the water is absolutely magical. Then spend a couple of days just wandering around: it is spectacular, even the bits the tourists don't much visit.
It does need careful planning though. For example, you can do a private tour of the Doges' Palace, which is well worth it. And none of this is cheap, of course.
It's funny: in Trieste you're almost welcomed as a guest of honour by the locals because they don't have many tourists but like to think of themselves as an important international city, and so therefore it's one of those rare places where they're actually pleased to see visitors. In Venice it's obviously the complete opposite — tourists get treated like sh*t because of course there are too many of them by a factor of about a million. And it's only a relatively short train journey between the two places.
I’ve never been to Venice and have precious little desire to go. I hear very similar stories about how people didn’t enjoy it.
I’m interested in Trieste for all sorts of historical and cultural reasons.
Venice is absolutely fantastic, magical. Yes, the crowds are appalling, but you don't have to go very far away from St Mark's Square to get away from them.
Hmm. I’ve heard contradictory things.
If I did go I’d do it in a day trip out-of-season.
Not too fussed.
Much better this time of year. Far fewer tourists, moody fogs, nowhere near as smelly.... It is one of the weirder wonders of the world. I am always reminded of the character in Monty Python and the Holy Grail. "They said I was mad to build it in a swamp...."
Are we about to see the second ever majority government with just 35% of the vote? If it ends up something like Con 35, Lab 26, LD 18, BREX 10
Yes, Tony Blair won a very comfortable 66 seat majority in 2005 with 35%.
The BBC did a vox pop at lunchtime with three "labour voters" oop North.. Two said they were going to vote Tory, one said he kind of liked Boris, the second said he just wanted Brexit done so would vote Tory, the third was dyed in the wool Labour voter who said he would vote Labour come what may, (not Mrs May I hasten to add). I think they interviewed them in Workington?
I think it was Middlesborough. I caught the end of it.
Oh well that's it then Corbyn may as well give up now.
What's the sampling error on a survey of 3?
Surprisingly it's only +/- 53% (Assuming a random sample)
Drutt said: "Massive outside punt? Gove PM on new year's Day. Requires Con Maj (evens), Gove holding Surrey heath (1/100) and Boris losing Uxbridge (5/1), so implied 10/1. It's 50/1."
All of the above doesn`t mean that Gove would become Tory leader though does it?
Any chance the BBC could visit places that voted Remain who hate the Tories or will we be subjected to 5 weeks of voters from just Leave areas who think Bozo is the next Messiah .
Are we going to be subjected to 5 weeks of idiots referring to the PM as "Bozo"?
I think we (that's CON for those posters who don't know me) are more likely to gain seats in South and Midlands which we held in 2010 rather than seats such as Bishop Auckland which we haven't won since 1931 😈
Or in London where the swing from Labour to the LDs is highest even if the Tory vote largely stands still.
Seats like Enfield Southgate, Eltham, Croydon Central, even Brentford and Isleworth and Enfirld North come into play as a result. All were Tory in 2010 or 2015.
I cannot see the Tories gaining many seats in the North Thatcher or Cameron did not win, though Bishop Auckland may be an exception
I think it is wrong to write off the North for Tory gains. Durham has seen a c. 10% swing to the Tories from 2005 to 2017, similar for Cumbria. Where the Tories may struggle more in the North is in some of the larger towns where there is likely to be a sizeable public sector vote that will not support them. However, if that block switches to the LDs / Greens because of Corbyn's Brexit stance / anti-semitism, some of what HYFUD suggests may happen in London, with Tories picking up seats as their vote stands still and Labour's falls, may happen in the North.
In 2017 the Tories anticipated a clean sweep of the Cumbria seats and deployed resources there. Barrow stayed Labour by about 200, and Farron held on in W&L by a couple of hundred as well. Workington saw a big increase in the Tory vote but was about 4,000 Labour majority.
I think generally in 2017 in many of those WWC seats, Labour held on because there was a degree of the "Labour till I die" attitude still there. Being brutal, death have probably taken some of those voters and Brexit has taken others. One big issue that could make this election very volatile in terms of seat changes is that a disproportionate number have very small majorities. It won't take much in terms of voters switching / staying at home to change the seats.
Old frothing brexit supporting tories have also died since 2017.
No doubt. But the Tories have the advantage that all generations usually care about their wealth. For many people, that means they will vote Tory to hold off Corbyn.
That's a difficult one to be sure about because the accurate description is "for many people with wealth, that means...'. Do enough people in enough places feel that they have enough to be worried?
Are we about to see the second ever majority government with just 35% of the vote? If it ends up something like Con 35, Lab 26, LD 18, BREX 10
Yes, Tony Blair won a very comfortable 66 seat majority in 2005 with 35%.
The BBC did a vox pop at lunchtime with three "labour voters" oop North.. Two said they were going to vote Tory, one said he kind of liked Boris, the second said he just wanted Brexit done so would vote Tory, the third was dyed in the wool Labour voter who said he would vote Labour come what may, (not Mrs May I hasten to add). I think they interviewed them in Workington?
I think it was Middlesborough. I caught the end of it.
No it WAS Workington ... just checked , listen at @ 13.mins 30 secs
Any chance the BBC could visit places that voted Remain who hate the Tories or will we be subjected to 5 weeks of voters from just Leave areas who think Bozo is the next Messiah .
Are we going to be subjected to 5 weeks of idiots referring to the PM as "Bozo"?
Bozo is the kind of childish insult someone like the PM might use!
Just saw an interview with Corbyn and he came across pretty well: confident, relaxed, not arrogant, calm, reasonable in tone.
This is the problem for the Tories: because Corbyn never expected to be in this position in a million years, until 2015, the whole situation of him being leader is like a bonus for him and his supporters. So they don't appear worried at all. And that actually comes across quite well to voters.
And so the Tories need to expose the fact that under that calm facade lurks an extremist who will impose crippling taxes, confiscate hundreds of billions in private property, and open the borders to all and sundry.
It's not hard, FFS - the Tories need to take Labour policies and demolish them with the thoroughness that they so richly deserve.
Just saw an interview with Corbyn and he came across pretty well: confident, relaxed, not arrogant, calm, reasonable in tone.
This is the problem for the Tories: because Corbyn never expected to be in this position in a million years, until 2015, the whole situation of him being leader is like a bonus for him and his supporters. So they don't appear worried at all. And that actually comes across quite well to voters.
I think Corbyn comes across better than BJ, Corbyn actually cares about people where as Boris just cares about himself....
"Boris just cares about himself"
That is the lie that will get nailed this election.
I am sorry, it is just the impression I get from his behaviour and the way he presents himself. Everything is about Boris, even one of his children said he was a selfish bastard!
Any chance the BBC could visit places that voted Remain who hate the Tories or will we be subjected to 5 weeks of voters from just Leave areas who think Bozo is the next Messiah .
Are we going to be subjected to 5 weeks of idiots referring to the PM as "Bozo"?
Ploppikins said: "Are we about to see the second ever majority government with just 35% of the vote? If it ends up something like Con 35, Lab 26, LD 18, BREX 10"
The two big dynamics in play will be: 1) LDs taking votes from Lab and 2) BXP taking votes from Con.
If rumours today are true that BXP will only stand in a few seats where Tories have no chance then Tories are on course for a sizeable majority.
Ploppikins said: "Are we about to see the second ever majority government with just 35% of the vote? If it ends up something like Con 35, Lab 26, LD 18, BREX 10"
The two big dynamics in play will be: 1) LDs taking votes from Lab and 2) BXP taking votes from Con.
If rumours today are true that BXP will only stand in a few seats where Tories have no chance then Tories are on course for a sizeable majority.
Drutt said: "Massive outside punt? Gove PM on new year's Day. Requires Con Maj (evens), Gove holding Surrey heath (1/100) and Boris losing Uxbridge (5/1), so implied 10/1. It's 50/1."
All of the above doesn`t mean that Gove would become Tory leader though does it?
Requires Johnson to stand in Uxbridge. The related contingency of tory majority and losing Uxbridge cant just be multiplied through.
LD under 50 seats is 8/13 at Coral. Value. I remember Meeks tipping the LD unders in 2017. It was about 37 when the campaign began.
Con most votes at 1/6 looks good too.
BXP no seats is better than evens. Value.
Massive outside punt? Gove PM on new year's Day. Requires Con Maj (evens), Gove holding Surrey heath (1/100) and Boris losing Uxbridge (5/1), so implied 10/1. It's 50/1.
Dyor, tastier odds likely available on the exchanges from the to time.
Tory majority and Boris losing would be related (negatively correlated) contingencies, so you can't do the straight 10/1 math.
Any chance the BBC could visit places that voted Remain who hate the Tories or will we be subjected to 5 weeks of voters from just Leave areas who think Bozo is the next Messiah .
Are we going to be subjected to 5 weeks of idiots referring to the PM as "Bozo"?
"On the day I was allowed back on to PB, around March, I followed in a tip to back him as next PM at a single figure price"
Do you feel a bit silly?
I am not @isam and cannot speak for him, but I think it was value betting. 'Value" is when the probability implied by the odds grossly mismatch what the punter believes to be the actual probability of the event. The bet is purchased on the assumption that the probability will eventually converge, enabling the bet to be traded out of at a profit. This is how professional gamblers make a profit and I think it's the only strategy that actually works.
If you knew that already please accept my apologies, but it was a teaching moment and I thought other readers may appreciate the lesson.
Mr. B, it'd seem odd for Honda to leave after they struggled for so long and now have an engine comparable to the others.
Changing corporate priorities. Honda's plans are for all electric by 2022; it's not clear how F1 fits into that strategy, and it is enormously expensive marketing with no certain return.
Surely F1 will go electric soon?
Perhaps, but such a development threatens to remove everything that makes it distinctive.
Why? What makes it distinctive is fast cars, not burning oil.
Any chance the BBC could visit places that voted Remain who hate the Tories or will we be subjected to 5 weeks of voters from just Leave areas who think Bozo is the next Messiah .
They were in Liverpool just now, interviewing students.
I disappear for a few days and all hell breaks loose! 6 weeks till Sunderland Central falls I see the tiggers are giving up, two are stepping down. Just Soubry, Gapes and Leslie left. Gapes is the only one I know has confirmed he will stand
Massive outside punt? Gove PM on new year's Day. Requires Con Maj (evens), Gove holding Surrey heath (1/100) and Boris losing Uxbridge (5/1), so implied 10/1. It's 50/1.
Dyor, tastier odds likely available on the exchanges from the to time.
I think from this, though, that the 10/1 comes from the 5/1 on Johnson to lose and evens on Tory majority.
But the events aren't independent of one another. Tories winning a majority makes a Johnson loss much less likely.
Additionally, there are several steps between a Tory majority with Johnson losing and Gove becoming PM by the end of the year. So I think 50/1 is poor value.
One other tip on Venice: the Festa del Redentore is absolutely fantastic, with some really serious fireworks on the lagoon and hundreds of little boats lit by lanterns on the water:
Comments
But it wasn’t obvious, and her resignation is evidence to the contrary. Boris only tried for a deal when the alternatives were boxed off - prior to that he was grandstanding and refusing to engage with the EU at all.
Honda's plans are for all electric by 2022; it's not clear how F1 fits into that strategy, and it is enormously expensive marketing with no certain return.
I think they interviewed them in Workington?
I’m interested in Trieste for all sorts of historical and cultural reasons.
Or LD in Lab held seats. And not only Tories. My anecdote for the day is a previous strong Lab supporter has just joined the LDs in a Lab held seat.
I suspect that the 0.5-1.0% they are getting in the opinion poles will transfer to Brexit, in the other 550 ish seats, not that will make a lot of difference.
Simples:
Padua is a station on Barcelona Metro line L7, from the city centre to Avenue of Tibidabo (for connections to the hill-top church).
The two big dynamics in play will be: 1) LDs taking votes from Lab and 2) BXP taking votes from Con.
If rumours today are true that BXP will only stand in a few seats where Tories have no chance then Tories are on course for a sizeable majority.
Yes, what was that all about?
I spent many a night (yes, really) getting stressed between about 9.20pm and 10pm constantly refreshing my phone in the last few minutes.
It’s quite liberating to be rather more philosophical about polling these days.
(* Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week, as in 2014/15 and 2017).
Given the above I doubt the Tories are going to win a majority on 35% of the vote as the smaller parties will eat into the Tories seat numbers this time where as the reverse was the case in 2015 for instance.
I can only assume he’s meeting with Banks et al behind closed doors, agreeing tactics.
Good to see .
This is the problem for the Tories: because Corbyn never expected to be in this position in a million years, until 2015, the whole situation of him being leader is like a bonus for him and his supporters. So they don't appear worried at all. And that actually comes across quite well to voters.
But no man should live an entire life without seeing Venice. Go in the late autumn or late winter (avoid Christmas or carnival) when it is at its loneliest, rainiest and most evocatively beautiful. A phantom city, in the dying rain, floating on the dark seas of nothing. Sublime.
Mr. Byronic, it's partly electric already, and will probably go further down that path.
What matters is that it's as fast as possible, which means the most powerful engines, regardless of the fuel source or combining different approaches.
If it did go electric 100% then it would seem likely either F1 or Formula E would be a bit surplus to requirements.
AndyJS said:
"Lidington on Sky News."
"On the day I was allowed back on to PB, around March, I followed in a tip to back him as next PM at a single figure price"
Do you feel a bit silly?
Johnson has never given even a hint of a suggestion that he thought No Deal was a preferred outcome; it's absolutely clear (to me, at least) that everything he said was part of a strategy for changing the narrative and getting a deal agreed.
What's the sampling error on a survey of 3?
All total bollocks, as some of the more savvy amongst us said.
You dont get many capitalists who not only dont have capital but cant see a path to accumulating it. What on earth has happened to the party of business and opportunity that it is now f. business, experts and good jobs?
https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/86a16310417e1569910902a5d0fee93687878cef/118_0_5630_3378/master/5630.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=e0cc9d0281ae68428527e8e1c73e0b08
I tend to agree with you, but I guess we will never know for sure. Cummings wanted a deal for sure and I think it very likely that Boris always did too.
If I did go I’d do it in a day trip out-of-season.
Not too fussed.
"We are facing a General Election that could finally decide the battle for Brexit.
That’s why I am asking for your support today. We need your help to make sure we get the Brexit that 17.4m of us voted for three and a half years ago.
Click Here to Donate
It was thanks to your support that The Brexit Party won the European elections in May, got rid of the worst prime minister in memory, and put Brexit back at the top of the agenda. Within six weeks of our launch, more than 100,000 of you signed up as registered supporters and enabled us to become the biggest party in the European Parliament.
That truly was the £25 election. Now we need your support again. We are standing in the General Election on December 12th to fight for Brexit and give the 17.4m a voice.
We have a big challenge on our hands to clear out the Remainer Parliament and win a majority for Brexit. Our hard-working team need all the help they can get. We have plans for campaigns across the mainstream and social media, along with billboards, leaflets, newspapers — and TV broadcasts like the recent one that was seen by millions.
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Anyway, I must be off. Play nicely, children.
It does get a bit smelly in high summer mind.
That is the lie that will get nailed this election.
My BJESUS (Big John Election Service Universal Swing) starts on Monday
Well, you can prove anything with facts.
Con most votes at 1/6 looks good too.
BXP no seats is better than evens. Value.
Massive outside punt? Gove PM on new year's Day. Requires Con Maj (evens), Gove holding Surrey heath (1/100) and Boris losing Uxbridge (5/1), so implied 10/1. It's 50/1.
Dyor, tastier odds likely available on the exchanges from the to time.
It does need careful planning though. For example, you can do a private tour of the Doges' Palace, which is well worth it. And none of this is cheap, of course.
All of the above doesn`t mean that Gove would become Tory leader though does it?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0009qvf
It's not hard, FFS - the Tories need to take Labour policies and demolish them with the thoroughness that they so richly deserve.
#ExcellentValueTip
"To be fair that was tipped at about 200/1 rather than 9/1. There's a difference!"
MarqueeMark said: "Still money "spaffed up a wall" at 20,000/1."
I spaffed £15 up the wall on Bercow to be PM at 20/1. I`ve just shut my hand in the drawer as punishment.
If you knew that already please accept my apologies, but it was a teaching moment and I thought other readers may appreciate the lesson.
The long outside odds punts are interesting, sometimes but not always value, do your own research, but they dont have to win be profitable.
6 weeks till Sunderland Central falls
I see the tiggers are giving up, two are stepping down. Just Soubry, Gapes and Leslie left. Gapes is the only one I know has confirmed he will stand
But the events aren't independent of one another. Tories winning a majority makes a Johnson loss much less likely.
Additionally, there are several steps between a Tory majority with Johnson losing and Gove becoming PM by the end of the year. So I think 50/1 is poor value.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Festa_del_Redentore
I don't expect Romney to be president, but 1000/1 was also a decent punt.