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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » All three main party leaders are in negative ratings territory with Corbyn’s numbers the worst
If you had followed the 2017 General Election only through the prism of leader ratings then the actual outcome with the Labour recovery would have been less of a surprise. For these were showing that Theresa May’s numbers getting steadily worse and that Corbyn’s were improving very rapidly in the run up to election. Indeed by election day Corbyn had jumped out of negative territory.
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It is no longer conserving much frankly.
This has major implications for how the general election will play out.
I was wondering why we all thought he was manifestly unsuited to be PM and today and I daresay the next few weeks will remind us why.
Jeez what a state this country is in.
Jo Swinson's ratings amongst 2017 LD voters are also surprisingly poor, with lots of don't knows. 2017 LD voters comprise the party's faithful vote from a time where the party wasn't in great shape, and therefore you might expect them to be more informed about her and more loyal to her than these figures show.
We've got a great one in Totnes.
Tory response to labour education attacks......chuffin' Wales......
Tissue_Price said:
Newcastle-under-Lyme: Lab majority 30
Good morning all - if anyone wants to help my campaign in Newcastle-under-Lyme, either in person or by donating, please take a look here: https://www.aaronbell.org.uk/support-aarons-campaign
I'd be delighted to meet pb friends in person if anyone can make it - it's in the north of the West Midlands and yet only 90 mins from London on the train.
www.facebook.com/AaronBell4NUL
www.twitter.com/AaronBell4NUL
Aaron, we have a bit of a challenge here in Totnes! But when I go up to see my mum, I'll drop over to shove some leaflets through letter boxes. Good luck.
@Jeremycorbyn
#PMQs
@bigjohnowls can you explain why they don't hate the "Tory"?
The blustering PM really is hopeless
And don't get me started on education
Labour need throwing out of Wales
Clearly no loss.
Do you not agree?
This is the big one - they need to fight it as such.
And why does he call it "our" NHS? He never refers to "our" Army or "our" police that I've ever heard.
What an embarrassment that man is. No wonder he is polling disastrously badly.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/30/richard-braine-quits-ukip-leader-after-less-than-three-months?CMP=share_btn_tw
Over one hour !!!
Oh.
Jezzas ratings will be better by polling day
I don’t know how much is luck and how much comes courtesy of the Neptune sized brain of Dominic Cummings, but the Cons have got their GE positioning as regards Brexit spot on. Vote for them and you get Brexit done almost immediately and – this is key – with a Deal. Not any old Deal either, but a Boris Deal which has the flavour of True Leave about it. I cannot see why this does not collect up the Leave vote other than hard core Farage fans and those who for tribal reasons simply cannot vote Tory. It will also appeal to agnostics and apoliticals who despite voting Remain in 2016 are suffering from Brexit fatigue and want the whole thing settled just so long as there is no chaotic crash out.
So, on Brexit, for a Brexit election, the offering is strong and on top of this you have the figure of Boris Johnson. Now I can’t stand him. It’s clear to me that he is an integrity free chancer. The guy is devoid of principles - personal or political - and out purely for himself. But people like me won’t be voting Tory anyway. It would bring me out in a rash. With those that are medically capable of the act my sense is that Johnson will be a net asset. Just because I’m immune does not mean that I fail to recognize his star power. He appeals in particular to people who are not that interested in politics. There are a lot of such people in Britain. In a GE campaign this is gold dust and I expect him to exploit it to the max.
Conclusion –
Dec 12th looks and feels to me like a big Tory win. So with all due regard to the technical seat by seat type analysis which says they have a mountain to climb, and to the fact that in 2017 it appeared like a big Tory win too, which did not transpire, that is my prediction. A Conservative overall majority of 60 seats. I will be betting accordingly.
I am keen to get this said now, get it off my chest, because once the campaign starts I plan to be relentlessly rah rah for Labour – including with predictions – but this here, Cons by 60, unless something contra and significant starts happening with the polls, will be what I really think is going to happen.
https://labour.org.uk/press/jeremy-corbyn-responds-national-knife-crime-crisis/
and previously
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1159505512997752833?lang=en
Can't be bothered to go on!
Nothing's perfect, but the overall position could be a lot worse!
Be careful what you wish for.
Corbyn is toxic and this election will see labour losing seats
It will hurt Labour a lot in seats where the Tories are in 3rd place and can’t come through the middle, but that doesn’t help Johnson find a majority.
If the Tories went on more austerity with Hammond or Hunt and no Brexit or BINO Corbyn would win.
As recent elections prove it is the populist right that wins at the moment e.g. Trump, Salvini, Modi, Bolsonaro, Morrison etc.
If the centre right goes too much on austerity and no populism it fails to win or loses e.g. Romney, Turnbull, May, Fillon, Canada and Scheer, Argentina even Germany and Merkel now
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer. Extraordinary.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/17/make-sure-heroic-police-officers-get-protection-deserve/
"I'll make sure our heroic police officers get the protection they deserve."
And Johnson himself on 4 July:
https://www.facebook.com/borisjohnson/posts/honoured-to-have-secured-the-backing-of-the-majority-of-our-conservative-police-/10156544463661317/
As PM, I'll back our police to the hilt with more powers and resources.
As to hysteria I leave that to the swiveleyed nutters that you, in your silly, puerile unquestioning manner, have now aligned yourself to. With respect to the CINO Party, you are welcome to it and the dregs and boneheads that are now left in it.
Purity over a broad church feels good at the time, but it's a very poor long-term strategy, as Labour polling shows.
If I am asked to predict I am now saying very little will change and we are looking at another minority government.
I predict a rerun in March.
https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1189531731365421056
Southern seats aren't going to like Labour's confiscatory socialism too much, remember!
If he wins and can get Brexit, in whatever form with some sort of trade agreement with the EU settled and it's not an economic disaster, so that it becomes the status quo, then there's a good chance the Conservative Party can recover and heal.
If a Brexit imposed by a Johnson government is a disaster, and is then overturned by a different government, then I think you would see infighting over returning to true Brexit.
Johnson has to not just get Brexit done, but he has to get Brexit done right.