I suppose the good thing for Boris is few will have watched PMQs and that will be the last one. Subjects like Grenfell always easy for Jezza and tough for Boris.
So Bozo's going to duck all the election debates then?
Tory response to labour NHS attacks.........Wales......
Tory response to labour education attacks......chuffin' Wales......
I live in Wales and condemn Welsh labour's running of our NHS and the failing education system. I waited 65 weeks for my bi lateral hernia op, our hospital is in special measures and we cannot even get our flu jabs, even though we are priority patients.
And don't get me started on education
Labour need throwing out of Wales
I also live in Wales and things have certainly deteriorated over the last 9 years of Tory austerity. Having said that, my overall experiences of the NHS have been positive, would be a lot worse under a Tory Assembly. My grandson started school a year ago. He is coming on leaps and bounds and will be fluent in 2 languages before long. This will stand him in good stead for his future.
Unfortunately that is not the experience of our family
Or our family in N Wales. The NHS is in a dire state, and the patient experience is very poor indeed. Locally, as BigG says, it is failing with little prospect of ending 5 years of being in special measures. Access to better services across the border has now being stopped, as NHS Wales wouldn't/couldn't pay its bill.
Education fares little better, as we slip further and further down the international league tables.
And the paucity of ideas or talent in the Senedd is depressing. Labour continues to fail Wales but after two decades in power, still its only answer is to blame Whitehall.
Depressing. And hopefully Labour will get the rest of the kicking this time they were due in 2017.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say healthy Tory majority (50+). My instinct says Essex man wants Brexit withdrawal done so we can get on with the negotiations. The LDs will weaken Lab in university towns (the students betrayed by Clegg are young professionals now). But I don't think they will recover in the south as well against the Tories as many hope. Tories have incumbency advantage. I think Tories will sneak through the middle in a lot of constituencies where Lab/LD vote is split.
One of my sons just surprised me - I can't recall him ever bothering to vote - but he will this time and he says he is going blue as he wants Brexit done.
He and I never talks politics as he is just not interested - but now it seems he is.
Will Quince gets a +1 in his column and actually my wife who thinks the Lib Dem candidate is a top guy (as do I ) will vote tories to keep Labour out and deliver Brexit.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say healthy Tory majority (50+). My instinct says Essex man wants Brexit withdrawal done so we can get on with the negotiations. The LDs will weaken Lab in university towns (the students betrayed by Clegg are young professionals now). But I don't think they will recover in the south as well against the Tories as many hope. Tories have incumbency advantage. I think Tories will sneak through the middle in a lot of constituencies where Lab/LD vote is split.
You are Dominic Cummings and I claim my £5
What do you reckon Nige? 300 Lib Dem gains and Gary Lineker PM?
My best guess when I look into my crystal ball is another hung parliament. If so Bozo will step down and probably Corbyn too. The GE was typical Brexiteer dim witted thinking, it will create more uncertainty, not less. Sorry to burst your extremist fantasy! I could be wrong though, I don't pretend my guesses are facts like HYUFD, or perhaps yourself.
I suppose the good thing for Boris is few will have watched PMQs and that will be the last one. Subjects like Grenfell always easy for Jezza and tough for Boris.
So Bozo's going to duck all the election debates then?
I suppose the good thing for Boris is few will have watched PMQs and that will be the last one. Subjects like Grenfell always easy for Jezza and tough for Boris.
So Bozo's going to duck all the election debates then?
PMQs and debates are very different animals. Particularly if the debates are 7 way again.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say healthy Tory majority (50+). My instinct says Essex man wants Brexit withdrawal done so we can get on with the negotiations. The LDs will weaken Lab in university towns (the students betrayed by Clegg are young professionals now). But I don't think they will recover in the south as well against the Tories as many hope. Tories have incumbency advantage. I think Tories will sneak through the middle in a lot of constituencies where Lab/LD vote is split.
You are Dominic Cummings and I claim my £5
What do you reckon Nige? 300 Lib Dem gains and Gary Lineker PM?
My best guess when I look into my crystal ball is another hung parliament. If so Bozo will step down and probably Corbyn too. The GE was typical Brexiteer dim witted thinking, it will create more uncertainty, not less. Sorry to burst your extremist fantasy! I could be wrong though, I don't pretend my guesses are facts like HYUFD, or perhaps yourself.
I also think hung parliament, the gen election is hardly dim thinking when parliament was blocking everything, it certainly makes sense to give it a go particularly given a 2nd ref is only a figment of extremists imaginations rather than a reality. You do seem worried about having one though, so maybe that suggests the Lib Dems won't have such a barnstorming election as your FBPE mob hope.
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer. Extraordinary.
You’re obsessed.
Dont you think its a strange thing for the PM to say and even stranger she appears to nod?
No.
Fair enough.
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer.
Definitely not at all unusual exchange.
The coalition nearly destroyed the Lib Dems. You’re crazy if you think they’ll go anywhere near that again.
You're very naive. The Lib Dems main aim is to get into power. Swinson sounds just like Clegg pre 2010. 100% she will do a deal and try and become Kingmaker with Tories or Labour.
Though I think any such attempt would involve considerably more conditions and circumspection than last time around. And neither Corbyn nor Johnson as king.
I can't conceive of any circumstances in which the LibDems go into coalition with the Tories. It would destroy their USP, alienate pretty much every new voter they've picked up, and their Brexit policy is such a polar opposite to the Tories (with a new batch of head-bangers coming in) that there isn't even a starting point to a negotiation.
Any situation where the Tories need a coalition is one where an alternative can be formed without them.
Maybe, but not for long.
Corbyn’s Labour, Swinson’s LDs and Sturgeon’s SNP don’t have reams in common.
Heh. Guido got hold of O'Mara's Twitter account, and is posting all the unflattering stories about him. https://twitter.com/jaredomaramp
Probably time to leave O'Mara alone now.
I was critical when he left his seat unrepresented, and would neither give up his salary nor make proper arrangements.
But it's also clear he has mental health problems, and the resignation issue has now been superceded by an election. He's also facing a criminal investigation that must run its course.
Continuing to jab has no purpose any more, and is cruel to a fragile individual.
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer. Extraordinary.
You’re obsessed.
Dont you think its a strange thing for the PM to say and even stranger she appears to nod?
No.
Fair enough.
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer.
Definitely not at all unusual exchange.
The coalition nearly destroyed the Lib Dems. You’re crazy if you think they’ll go anywhere near that again.
You're very naive. The Lib Dems main aim is to get into power. Swinson sounds just like Clegg pre 2010. 100% she will do a deal and try and become Kingmaker with Tories or Labour.
Though I think any such attempt would involve considerably more conditions and circumspection than last time around. And neither Corbyn nor Johnson as king.
I can't conceive of any circumstances in which the LibDems go into coalition with the Tories. It would destroy their USP, alienate pretty much every new voter they've picked up, and their Brexit policy is such a polar opposite to the Tories (with a new batch of head-bangers coming in) that there isn't even a starting point to a negotiation.
Any situation where the Tories need a coalition is one where an alternative can be formed without them.
Maybe, but not for long.
Corbyn’s Labour, Swinson’s LDs and Sturgeon’s SNP don’t have reams in common.
There is a substantial chance that the next Parliament will be more chaotic than the last, with fewer experienced Parliamentarians to broker compromises.
Heh. Guido got hold of O'Mara's Twitter account, and is posting all the unflattering stories about him. https://twitter.com/jaredomaramp
How is this different to phone hacking?
The account was registered in October 2019.
Its basically a parody account, not his real one.
They introduced legislation in the coalition years that was meant to stop that! Whoever has done that i recommend they delette it as why would anyone want to waste their time on a soon to be ex MP who is not standing for re-election? Plus potentail prosecution...
"What will survive this seismic election? As Britain prepares for its fifth nationwide ballot in four years, much is hanging in the balance By Matthew Goodwin"
I agree with your sentiments. Politicians always fight the last war and i think BJ misreads where we are as a country and his electoral options.
How can anyone gauge exactly where we are as a country though ?
Even if Boris games a solid majority on 32 or 33% of the vote I’m not sure anyone’s given much thought as to the legitimacy or long-term health of our democracy if that is used to push through a very controversial or partisan agenda.
I felt far more comfortable about a solid Theresa May win on 43 or 44% of the vote in 2017.
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer. Extraordinary.
You’re obsessed.
Dont you think its a strange thing for the PM to say and even stranger she appears to nod?
No.
Fair enough.
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer.
Definitely not at all unusual exchange.
The coalition nearly destroyed the Lib Dems. You’re crazy if you think they’ll go anywhere near that again.
You're very naive. The Lib Dems main aim is to get into power. Swinson sounds just like Clegg pre 2010. 100% she will do a deal and try and become Kingmaker with Tories or Labour.
Though I think any such attempt would involve considerably more conditions and circumspection than last time around. And neither Corbyn nor Johnson as king.
I can't conceive of any circumstances in which the LibDems go into coalition with the Tories. It would destroy their USP, alienate pretty much every new voter they've picked up, and their Brexit policy is such a polar opposite to the Tories (with a new batch of head-bangers coming in) that there isn't even a starting point to a negotiation.
Any situation where the Tories need a coalition is one where an alternative can be formed without them.
Maybe, but not for long.
Corbyn’s Labour, Swinson’s LDs and Sturgeon’s SNP don’t have reams in common.
There is a substantial chance that the next Parliament will be more chaotic than the last, with fewer experienced Parliamentarians to broker compromises.
I’ve thought that for weeks, and have said so on here too.
I do hope that SeanT and Byronic managed to meet up for lunch together in New Orleans.
I wish people would rebadge themselves a bit more thoughtfully. I get an Alanis bloody Morissette earworm for the rest of the day every time I read "Byronic."
It must have been quite the blow to his colossal ego when the carefully crafted persona and backstory that he chose to sneak back with lasted about 2 minutes before everyone worked out who it was.
If I were SeanT, which I am not, my already enormous ego would be inflated even more by the fact you desperate fanbois are STILL banging on about him. It is clearly homoerotic.
"In the next seven weeks there’ll be many voting intention polls coming out"
Indeed so and those appearing in the seventh such week are likely to include the actual GE RESULT!
On a more serious note, OGH states that " in net terms Johnson and Swinson are about level". This is hardly the case with Swinson on a net -24% rating, whilst Boris rates a net -16%. On any normal assessment this is a very significant lead for Boris. That said, with Corbyn on a net -50%, is OGH expecting the LibDems to finish 2nd, well ahead of Labour? If not, what conclusion exactly are we expected to reach from this table?
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer. Extraordinary.
You’re obsessed.
Dont you think its a strange thing for the PM to say and even stranger she appears to nod?
No.
Fair enough.
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer.
Definitely not at all unusual exchange.
The coalition nearly destroyed the Lib Dems. You’re crazy if you think they’ll go anywhere near that again.
You're very naive. The Lib Dems main aim is to get into power. Swinson sounds just like Clegg pre 2010. 100% she will do a deal and try and become Kingmaker with Tories or Labour.
Though I think any such attempt would involve considerably more conditions and circumspection than last time around. And neither Corbyn nor Johnson as king.
This is true, but there is also a very good chance the Libs do well but Swinson loses her seat, with a new leader they could circumvent any 'no coalition' guff that Swinson spouts on the campaign trail.
The two obvious successors would be Layla Moran and Chuka Umunna, both some way to the left of “Tory Swinson”™️
I do hope that SeanT and Byronic managed to meet up for lunch together in New Orleans.
I wish people would rebadge themselves a bit more thoughtfully. I get an Alanis bloody Morissette earworm for the rest of the day every time I read "Byronic."
It must have been quite the blow to his colossal ego when the carefully crafted persona and backstory that he chose to sneak back with lasted about 2 minutes before everyone worked out who it was.
If I were SeanT, which I am not, my already enormous ego would be inflated even more by the fact you desperate fanbois are STILL banging on about him. It is clearly homoerotic.
I worked out long ago that you are Tim – the ying to Sean's yang.
I’ve already been tapped up for donations by the Conservative campaign director.
I must say, I’m hesitating. What am I donating for?
My biggest worry right now is on Conservative attitudes to balancing the budget and the macroeconomy.
Leaving aside the question of Brexit, there is little doubt that this is the least fiscally responsible Conservative government of my lifetime.
I have three levels of engagement in this campaign:
Level 1 - shitshow: I either abstain, deface my ballot or vote for an independent Conservative. This applies if I simply can’t support the manifesto, the leadership or what I think they’ll do with power. (I would never vote LD)
Level 2 - Voter: I am assured on fiscal responsibility and the macro-economy. Boris tones it down and acts statesman like and inclusively. I vote Conservative.
Level 3 - Campaigner: I am inspired that the Conservatives have the right long-term plan for the country and the Union, with common-sense and good judgement applied to all issues, with a manifesto I’m wholeheartedly enthusiastic about.
I do hope that SeanT and Byronic managed to meet up for lunch together in New Orleans.
I wish people would rebadge themselves a bit more thoughtfully. I get an Alanis bloody Morissette earworm for the rest of the day every time I read "Byronic."
It must have been quite the blow to his colossal ego when the carefully crafted persona and backstory that he chose to sneak back with lasted about 2 minutes before everyone worked out who it was.
If I were SeanT, which I am not, my already enormous ego would be inflated even more by the fact you desperate fanbois are STILL banging on about him. It is clearly homoerotic.
I worked out long ago that you are Tim – the yin to Sean's yang.
lol! I wish I could be as bitingly acerbic as Tim. He had a gift for a brilliant and waspish slapdown.
Heh. Guido got hold of O'Mara's Twitter account, and is posting all the unflattering stories about him. https://twitter.com/jaredomaramp
How is this different to phone hacking?
(1) Jara let the account lapse. It was not taken by nefarious means. (2) The 'victim' is aware of what's happened. All transparent. (3) It's bloody funny.
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer. Extraordinary.
You’re obsessed.
Dont you think its a strange thing for the PM to say and even stranger she appears to nod?
No.
Fair enough.
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer.
Definitely not at all unusual exchange.
The coalition nearly destroyed the Lib Dems. You’re crazy if you think they’ll go anywhere near that again.
You're very naive. The Lib Dems main aim is to get into power. Swinson sounds just like Clegg pre 2010. 100% she will do a deal and try and become Kingmaker with Tories or Labour.
Though I think any such attempt would involve considerably more conditions and circumspection than last time around. And neither Corbyn nor Johnson as king.
I can't conceive of any circumstances in which the LibDems go into coalition with the Tories. It would destroy their USP, alienate pretty much every new voter they've picked up, and their Brexit policy is such a polar opposite to the Tories (with a new batch of head-bangers coming in) that there isn't even a starting point to a negotiation.
Any situation where the Tories need a coalition is one where an alternative can be formed without them.
Maybe, but not for long.
Corbyn’s Labour, Swinson’s LDs and Sturgeon’s SNP don’t have reams in common.
There is a substantial chance that the next Parliament will be more chaotic than the last, with fewer experienced Parliamentarians to broker compromises.
I’ve thought that for weeks, and have said so on here too.
Fun.
I don't know if I can take any more of this fun TBH!
When we started our crowdfunder last night, we were hoping to raise £50k in 48 hours to hire the team we need to win the election.
We have absolutely smashed this target, with 4,600 of you collectively donating more than £100k within the first 12 hours of the campaign. This is an unprecedented amount to have raised so quickly, and just goes to show the strength and commitment of our movement. Thank you!"
I suppose the good thing for Boris is few will have watched PMQs and that will be the last one. Subjects like Grenfell always easy for Jezza and tough for Boris.
So Bozo's going to duck all the election debates then?
PMQs and debates are very different animals. Particularly if the debates are 7 way again.
So that's why Amber stood down, and was then sent the disobliging letter from the whips' office - she declined the opportunity to stand in for Boris.
On balance, that's value. But the three risks are scandal escalating (if Republican Senators start turning against him, he'll struggle to be GOP nominee although he might go Independent), resignation (perhaps out of fear of defeat or to get a pardon from VP), and death (he's in his 70s and obese).
Yes, those are the risks. Although for me this is something of a hedge bet since I am laying Trump for WH2020 as if there is no tomorrow. I don't care what people say, I cannot believe, refuse to believe, that the American people will do that twice.
And I say this even after Monday's triumphant announcement that "Aboo Bakar Albagdaddy is DEAD".
When we started our crowdfunder last night, we were hoping to raise £50k in 48 hours to hire the team we need to win the election.
We have absolutely smashed this target, with 4,600 of you collectively donating more than £100k within the first 12 hours of the campaign. This is an unprecedented amount to have raised so quickly, and just goes to show the strength and commitment of our movement. Thank you!"
Apparently nearly at 200k as at 2.30pm
I hope they are going to register properly this time.
Heh. Guido got hold of O'Mara's Twitter account, and is posting all the unflattering stories about him. https://twitter.com/jaredomaramp
How is this different to phone hacking?
(1) Jara let the account lapse. It was not taken by nefarious means.
Hmm. This doesn't ring quite true. Twitter accounts don't lapse. It would seem rather remarkable if someone asked him if they could have his account and he said yes.
It looks like Farage is allowing himself to be overruled by pro-Tory voices in his party. He doesn't believe Boris will deliver a "proper" Brexit, but the argument that he is better than another hung parliament is a strong one.
I don't think that Nigel Farage really opposes the Boris deal. The Brexit Party's opposition videos to it are all focused on the transition period. The only focus on the longer term position is the ban on state aid, which I bet he actually quite likes.
When we started our crowdfunder last night, we were hoping to raise £50k in 48 hours to hire the team we need to win the election.
We have absolutely smashed this target, with 4,600 of you collectively donating more than £100k within the first 12 hours of the campaign. This is an unprecedented amount to have raised so quickly, and just goes to show the strength and commitment of our movement. Thank you!"
Apparently nearly at 200k as at 2.30pm
I hope they are going to register properly this time.
Haven't so far, and they have to register before they spend.
Guess they're actually happy to take the fine, tbh.
When we started our crowdfunder last night, we were hoping to raise £50k in 48 hours to hire the team we need to win the election.
We have absolutely smashed this target, with 4,600 of you collectively donating more than £100k within the first 12 hours of the campaign. This is an unprecedented amount to have raised so quickly, and just goes to show the strength and commitment of our movement. Thank you!"
Apparently nearly at 200k as at 2.30pm
I hope they are going to register properly this time.
I do hope that SeanT and Byronic managed to meet up for lunch together in New Orleans.
I wish people would rebadge themselves a bit more thoughtfully. I get an Alanis bloody Morissette earworm for the rest of the day every time I read "Byronic."
It must have been quite the blow to his colossal ego when the carefully crafted persona and backstory that he chose to sneak back with lasted about 2 minutes before everyone worked out who it was.
If I were SeanT, which I am not...
You're not Byronic, either, since it's a pseudonym...
When we started our crowdfunder last night, we were hoping to raise £50k in 48 hours to hire the team we need to win the election.
We have absolutely smashed this target, with 4,600 of you collectively donating more than £100k within the first 12 hours of the campaign. This is an unprecedented amount to have raised so quickly, and just goes to show the strength and commitment of our movement. Thank you!"
Apparently nearly at 200k as at 2.30pm
I hope they are going to register properly this time.
Haven't so far, and they have to register before they spend.
Guess they're actually happy to take the fine, tbh.
Brexit, last GE, Led by Donkeys, Electoral Commission / rules aren't really fit for purpose given how the landscape has changed with online etc.
When we started our crowdfunder last night, we were hoping to raise £50k in 48 hours to hire the team we need to win the election.
We have absolutely smashed this target, with 4,600 of you collectively donating more than £100k within the first 12 hours of the campaign. This is an unprecedented amount to have raised so quickly, and just goes to show the strength and commitment of our movement. Thank you!"
I agree. Tories are being very complacent. Those on PB seem to be holding back from donating and canvassing. I suspect they are representative. This could well be another May situation where they don't work for it.
I dunno about anyone else, but I veer between at least four different scenarios. From big Boris majority to narrow Corbyn plurality to weird Lib Dem breakthrough.
But, hand on heart, gun to head, palm on Bible, red hot iron brand near my lying tongue, what do I really expect?
The SNP won't do quite as well as they hope. Unionists will vote tactically. The LDs will fail to make huge gains, but they will pick up some plum Remain seats. Corbyn will do better than expected, after another decent campaign, but not as well as the last GE, and he will still be kryptonite to millions. Boris will campaign adequately.
Result: a very narrow Boris majority. 5-20. After that, who knows.
if the Tories can put forward more Andrea Jenkyns types in the North they will do very well, what they dont need is Tory wets. Morley and Outwood was an impressive win in 15' and an impressive hold in 17'. Plenty of these Northern constituencies are up for grabs.
Wondering if there is still a swing seat calculator available using the 2015 results as the baseline ?
Have seen a few people mention that 2017 was odd (and had aspects that won't repeat) so was curious to see if applying current polling to 2015 results gives more insight.
I do hope that SeanT and Byronic managed to meet up for lunch together in New Orleans.
I wish people would rebadge themselves a bit more thoughtfully. I get an Alanis bloody Morissette earworm for the rest of the day every time I read "Byronic."
It must have been quite the blow to his colossal ego when the carefully crafted persona and backstory that he chose to sneak back with lasted about 2 minutes before everyone worked out who it was.
If I were SeanT, which I am not, my already enormous ego would be inflated even more by the fact you desperate fanbois are STILL banging on about him. It is clearly homoerotic.
I worked out long ago that you are Tim – the ying to Sean's yang.
How ridiculous to have Lib Dems as a major party, they could not fill a minibus. They need Tory and Labour switchers to break double figures. Pygmy party more like.
Heh. Guido got hold of O'Mara's Twitter account, and is posting all the unflattering stories about him. https://twitter.com/jaredomaramp
Probably time to leave O'Mara alone now.
I was critical when he left his seat unrepresented, and would neither give up his salary nor make proper arrangements.
But it's also clear he has mental health problems, and the resignation issue has now been superceded by an election. He's also facing a criminal investigation that must run its course.
Continuing to jab has no purpose any more, and is cruel to a fragile individual.
I agree.
It is interesting to look at the attitudes of posters on this board to say Chris Davies, Jared O'Mara and Keith Vaz. Three bad boys.
It is clear to me that the baddest is Vaz. Prostitution and cocaine.
However, it is Davies and O'Mara who have the LibDems in a towering rage. The LibDems fulminate about their badness.
Yet, their offences seem minor to me. And O'Mara clearly needs help not censure.
I wonder why. It looks as the the really bad thing that Chris Davies and Jared O'Mara did was occupy LibDem target seats.
Except of course they didn't allow people to get on with their lives. They have introduced ever more rules, red tape and idiotic legislation which has made our lives infinitely more annoying and cumbersome.
The last Tory leader was a xenophobic, authoritarian nightmare who in her time as Home Secretary had made numerous terrible decisions which had caused real pain and hardship for many innocent people. We have had an ever increasingly complex tax system presided over by successive Chancellors who have done nothing to simplify it and have seen almost all of our important services - police, nurses, doctors and the fire service alienated by bad decisions and yet more red tape.
The Conservatives have not allowed people to "get on with their lives" for decades. They are little different from the Blairite Labour party or the Lib Dems which is why we need this revolution.
Though I actually doubt it will come unfortunately
I have to confess most of today's blizzard of partisan crap comments are just cluttering up this site but Richard as always provides something worth reading and considering.
The problem is Johnson is as much an interventionist as May. He is also a centraliser as he showed when Mayor of London when he took control of TfL and the Met directly into the Mayor's office. He will do the same and No.10 will be the place of influence with the Cabinet and Parliament side-lined.
He's also making spending commitments which would make an old-fashioned Labour CoE blush together with promising tax cuts to all and sundry so it's a debt-fuelled boom he's after for which we will end up paying later.
As you say, the modern Conservative seems to think not only that there is no problem which can't be solved by throwing money at it but also no problem which can't be solved by legislation or State intervention.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say healthy Tory majority (50+). My instinct says Essex man wants Brexit withdrawal done so we can get on with the negotiations. The LDs will weaken Lab in university towns (the students betrayed by Clegg are young professionals now). But I don't think they will recover in the south as well against the Tories as many hope. Tories have incumbency advantage. I think Tories will sneak through the middle in a lot of constituencies where Lab/LD vote is split.
You are Dominic Cummings and I claim my £5
What do you reckon Nige? 300 Lib Dem gains and Gary Lineker PM?
My best guess when I look into my crystal ball is another hung parliament. If so Bozo will step down and probably Corbyn too. The GE was typical Brexiteer dim witted thinking, it will create more uncertainty, not less. Sorry to burst your extremist fantasy! I could be wrong though, I don't pretend my guesses are facts like HYUFD, or perhaps yourself.
I also think hung parliament, the gen election is hardly dim thinking when parliament was blocking everything, it certainly makes sense to give it a go particularly given a 2nd ref is only a figment of extremists imaginations rather than a reality. You do seem worried about having one though, so maybe that suggests the Lib Dems won't have such a barnstorming election as your FBPE mob hope.
Oh dear, once again you parrot the propaganda that you are so easily fed. Parliament was/is doing its job, which was/is holding the executive to account. Shame that those that claimed that they wanted parliament to be supreme don't like it when it actually frustrates the executive (the executive means the government btw).
The figures for Corbyn amongst 2017 Labour voters are quite extraordinarily bad.
Jo Swinson's ratings amongst 2017 LD voters are also surprisingly poor, with lots of don't knows. 2017 LD voters comprise the party's faithful vote from a time where the party wasn't in great shape, and therefore you might expect them to be more informed about her and more loyal to her than these figures show.
I think Scot Swinson suffers in England from guilt by association with the lippy SNP in Westminster.
Utter crap , she is a Disney Scot, more English than the English and a Tory to boot.
I do hope that SeanT and Byronic managed to meet up for lunch together in New Orleans.
I wish people would rebadge themselves a bit more thoughtfully. I get an Alanis bloody Morissette earworm for the rest of the day every time I read "Byronic."
It must have been quite the blow to his colossal ego when the carefully crafted persona and backstory that he chose to sneak back with lasted about 2 minutes before everyone worked out who it was.
If I were SeanT, which I am not, my already enormous ego would be inflated even more by the fact you desperate fanbois are STILL banging on about him. It is clearly homoerotic.
I worked out long ago that you are Tim – the ying to Sean's yang.
There's something very odd about that prediction, because the same model gives only a 52% probability of a Conservative majority. It must be a very strange shaped probability distribution if the headline forecast is 363 but half of the probability is associated with outcomes of less than 325 [or slightly less than that, if 'majority' takes account of Sinn Fein].
When we started our crowdfunder last night, we were hoping to raise £50k in 48 hours to hire the team we need to win the election.
We have absolutely smashed this target, with 4,600 of you collectively donating more than £100k within the first 12 hours of the campaign. This is an unprecedented amount to have raised so quickly, and just goes to show the strength and commitment of our movement. Thank you!"
Apparently nearly at 200k as at 2.30pm
Have they registered all that with the Electoral Commission?
I dunno about anyone else, but I veer between at least four different scenarios. From big Boris majority to narrow Corbyn plurality to weird Lib Dem breakthrough.
But, hand on heart, gun to head, palm on Bible, red hot iron brand near my lying tongue, what do I really expect?
The SNP won't do quite as well as they hope. Unionists will vote tactically. The LDs will fail to make huge gains, but they will pick up some plum Remain seats. Corbyn will do better than expected, after another decent campaign, but not as well as the last GE, and he will still be kryptonite to millions. Boris will campaign adequately.
Result: a very narrow Boris majority. 5-20. After that, who knows.
That's where I am too, but it's guesswork and campaign will be critical, as you imply.
I do hope that SeanT and Byronic managed to meet up for lunch together in New Orleans.
I wish people would rebadge themselves a bit more thoughtfully. I get an Alanis bloody Morissette earworm for the rest of the day every time I read "Byronic."
It must have been quite the blow to his colossal ego when the carefully crafted persona and backstory that he chose to sneak back with lasted about 2 minutes before everyone worked out who it was.
If I were SeanT, which I am not, my already enormous ego would be inflated even more by the fact you desperate fanbois are STILL banging on about him. It is clearly homoerotic.
I worked out long ago that you are Tim – the ying to Sean's yang.
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer. Extraordinary.
You’re obsessed.
Dont you think its a strange thing for the PM to say and even stranger she appears to nod?
No.
Fair enough.
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer.
Definitely not at all unusual exchange.
The coalition nearly destroyed the Lib Dems. You’re crazy if you think they’ll go anywhere near that again.
You're very naive. The Lib Dems main aim is to get into power. Swinson sounds just like Clegg pre 2010. 100% she will do a deal and try and become Kingmaker with Tories or Labour.
Though I think any such attempt would involve considerably more conditions and circumspection than last time around. And neither Corbyn nor Johnson as king.
This is true, but there is also a very good chance the Libs do well but Swinson loses her seat, with a new leader they could circumvent any 'no coalition' guff that Swinson spouts on the campaign trail.
"No Coalition" is the party's line, and I think all (or almost all) the LibDem MPs are in agreement.
Quite a lot of LibDem members are not in agreement, and making their voice heard on Twitter at the moment. But it's an important and clear commitment. It'd hurt the party at the polls if voters believe that she might get into bed with Boris or Jeremy.
Heh. Guido got hold of O'Mara's Twitter account, and is posting all the unflattering stories about him. https://twitter.com/jaredomaramp
Probably time to leave O'Mara alone now.
I was critical when he left his seat unrepresented, and would neither give up his salary nor make proper arrangements.
But it's also clear he has mental health problems, and the resignation issue has now been superceded by an election. He's also facing a criminal investigation that must run its course.
Continuing to jab has no purpose any more, and is cruel to a fragile individual.
I agree.
It is interesting to look at the attitudes of posters on this board to say Chris Davies, Jared O'Mara and Keith Vaz. Three bad boys.
It is clear to me that the baddest is Vaz. Prostitution and cocaine.
However, it is Davies and O'Mara who have the LibDems in a towering rage. The LibDems fulminate about their badness.
Yet, their offences seem minor to me. And O'Mara clearly needs help not censure.
I wonder why. It looks as the the really bad thing that Chris Davies and Jared O'Mara did was occupy LibDem target seats.
I know I'm not the most sophisticated but my opinion of Keith Vaz has improved immensely since I heard about the prostitutes and cocaine. I'd prefer him to be in to that than sleazing money out of the taxpayer.
Heh. Guido got hold of O'Mara's Twitter account, and is posting all the unflattering stories about him. https://twitter.com/jaredomaramp
Probably time to leave O'Mara alone now.
I was critical when he left his seat unrepresented, and would neither give up his salary nor make proper arrangements.
But it's also clear he has mental health problems, and the resignation issue has now been superceded by an election. He's also facing a criminal investigation that must run its course.
Continuing to jab has no purpose any more, and is cruel to a fragile individual.
I agree.
It is interesting to look at the attitudes of posters on this board to say Chris Davies, Jared O'Mara and Keith Vaz. Three bad boys.
It is clear to me that the baddest is Vaz. Prostitution and cocaine.
However, it is Davies and O'Mara who have the LibDems in a towering rage. The LibDems fulminate about their badness.
Yet, their offences seem minor to me. And O'Mara clearly needs help not censure.
I wonder why. It looks as the the really bad thing that Chris Davies and Jared O'Mara did was occupy LibDem target seats.
Sexual harrassment and abuse is worse in my eyes than either prostitution or drugs.
Heh. Guido got hold of O'Mara's Twitter account, and is posting all the unflattering stories about him. https://twitter.com/jaredomaramp
Probably time to leave O'Mara alone now.
I was critical when he left his seat unrepresented, and would neither give up his salary nor make proper arrangements.
But it's also clear he has mental health problems, and the resignation issue has now been superceded by an election. He's also facing a criminal investigation that must run its course.
Continuing to jab has no purpose any more, and is cruel to a fragile individual.
I agree.
It is interesting to look at the attitudes of posters on this board to say Chris Davies, Jared O'Mara and Keith Vaz. Three bad boys.
It is clear to me that the baddest is Vaz. Prostitution and cocaine.
However, it is Davies and O'Mara who have the LibDems in a towering rage. The LibDems fulminate about their badness.
Yet, their offences seem minor to me. And O'Mara clearly needs help not censure.
I wonder why. It looks as the the really bad thing that Chris Davies and Jared O'Mara did was occupy LibDem target seats.
Sexual harrassment and abuse is worse in my eyes than either prostitution or drugs.
When we started our crowdfunder last night, we were hoping to raise £50k in 48 hours to hire the team we need to win the election.
We have absolutely smashed this target, with 4,600 of you collectively donating more than £100k within the first 12 hours of the campaign. This is an unprecedented amount to have raised so quickly, and just goes to show the strength and commitment of our movement. Thank you!"
Apparently nearly at 200k as at 2.30pm
The email I've had from the Tories (who perhaps need to prune their email list) seems low-key to the point of somnolence:
Dear Nick,
Just confirming you saw the Prime Minister’s email regarding the general election on December 12.
We are asking you to become a Founding Donor for the campaign.
Our reports suggest that Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party are already collecting campaign funds. We need to fight back. Become a Founding Donor
Heh. Guido got hold of O'Mara's Twitter account, and is posting all the unflattering stories about him. https://twitter.com/jaredomaramp
Probably time to leave O'Mara alone now.
I was critical when he left his seat unrepresented, and would neither give up his salary nor make proper arrangements.
But it's also clear he has mental health problems, and the resignation issue has now been superceded by an election. He's also facing a criminal investigation that must run its course.
Continuing to jab has no purpose any more, and is cruel to a fragile individual.
I agree.
It is interesting to look at the attitudes of posters on this board to say Chris Davies, Jared O'Mara and Keith Vaz. Three bad boys.
It is clear to me that the baddest is Vaz. Prostitution and cocaine.
However, it is Davies and O'Mara who have the LibDems in a towering rage. The LibDems fulminate about their badness.
Yet, their offences seem minor to me. And O'Mara clearly needs help not censure.
I wonder why. It looks as the the really bad thing that Chris Davies and Jared O'Mara did was occupy LibDem target seats.
I know I'm not the most sophisticated but my opinion of Keith Vaz has improved immensely since I heard about the prostitutes and cocaine. I'd prefer him to be in to that than sleazing money out of the taxpayer.
I like a bad boy/girl.
You seem to forget he was also expert expense claimer. And still many questions about how he has funded his lifestyle for many years.
I do hope that SeanT and Byronic managed to meet up for lunch together in New Orleans.
I wish people would rebadge themselves a bit more thoughtfully. I get an Alanis bloody Morissette earworm for the rest of the day every time I read "Byronic."
It must have been quite the blow to his colossal ego when the carefully crafted persona and backstory that he chose to sneak back with lasted about 2 minutes before everyone worked out who it was.
If I were SeanT, which I am not, my already enormous ego would be inflated even more by the fact you desperate fanbois are STILL banging on about him. It is clearly homoerotic.
I worked out long ago that you are Tim – the ying to Sean's yang.
There's something very odd about that prediction, because the same model gives only a 52% probability of a Conservative majority. It must be a very strange shaped probability distribution if the headline forecast is 363 but half of the probability is associated with outcomes of less than 325 [or slightly less than that, if 'majority' takes account of Sinn Fein].
Good spot.
Presumably, if the seats are weighted by implied probability, then there is only a narrow Tory majority.
It suggests that there are many marginal seats that the model is just giving to the Tories.
I do hope that SeanT and Byronic managed to meet up for lunch together in New Orleans.
They send each other letters and keep meaning to meet up but never manage to be in the same place at the same time. Given that Byronic is a cross dressing international male model transitioning to be a woman, and SeanT is an international author of loud mien and robust sexuality, they would not necessarily enjoy each other's company. They do however share the same psychiatrist who is content to have them both as paying clients.
They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.
When we started our crowdfunder last night, we were hoping to raise £50k in 48 hours to hire the team we need to win the election.
We have absolutely smashed this target, with 4,600 of you collectively donating more than £100k within the first 12 hours of the campaign. This is an unprecedented amount to have raised so quickly, and just goes to show the strength and commitment of our movement. Thank you!"
Apparently nearly at 200k as at 2.30pm
The email I've had from the Tories (who perhaps need to prune their email list) seems low-key to the point of somnolence:
Dear Nick,
Just confirming you saw the Prime Minister’s email regarding the general election on December 12.
We are asking you to become a Founding Donor for the campaign.
Our reports suggest that Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party are already collecting campaign funds. We need to fight back. Become a Founding Donor
I do hope that SeanT and Byronic managed to meet up for lunch together in New Orleans.
I wish people would rebadge themselves a bit more thoughtfully. I get an Alanis bloody Morissette earworm for the rest of the day every time I read "Byronic."
It must have been quite the blow to his colossal ego when the carefully crafted persona and backstory that he chose to sneak back with lasted about 2 minutes before everyone worked out who it was.
If I were SeanT, which I am not, my already enormous ego would be inflated even more by the fact you desperate fanbois are STILL banging on about him. It is clearly homoerotic.
I worked out long ago that you are Tim – the ying to Sean's yang.
CORBYNIST anagram - ST BYRONIC.
How spooky is that.
BYRONIC - I CORBYN
Dammit. My mask is ripped away.
You'd have got away with it if it wasn;t for those pesky kids
There's something very odd about that prediction, because the same model gives only a 52% probability of a Conservative majority. It must be a very strange shaped probability distribution if the headline forecast is 363 but half of the probability is associated with outcomes of less than 325 [or slightly less than that, if 'majority' takes account of Sinn Fein].
It also gives an 11% chance of a Labour overall majority. Given the loss of Scotland as well as the polls that does not seem anything like a majority, that seems a bigger surprise.
The 52% and 365 sort of makes sense if you look at the chart below of the pollsters. 5 pollsters say NOM, 4 pollsters say Large Tory Majority, 1 pollster and his average says moderate Tory majority.
Heh. Guido got hold of O'Mara's Twitter account, and is posting all the unflattering stories about him. https://twitter.com/jaredomaramp
How is this different to phone hacking?
(1) Jara let the account lapse. It was not taken by nefarious means.
Hmm. This doesn't ring quite true. Twitter accounts don't lapse. It would seem rather remarkable if someone asked him if they could have his account and he said yes.
It appears that he deleted his account without protecting it, so it was available for anyone to take over. Idiot.
They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.
They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.
They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.
But, will there be debates?
There should be. Let's hope there are.
Corbo will 100% agree to the debates, so if Bunter fails to show up he will be replaced by a metaphorical tub of lard. Perhaps Mark Francois will step up?
Heh. Guido got hold of O'Mara's Twitter account, and is posting all the unflattering stories about him. https://twitter.com/jaredomaramp
Probably time to leave O'Mara alone now.
I was critical when he left his seat unrepresented, and would neither give up his salary nor make proper arrangements.
But it's also clear he has mental health problems, and the resignation issue has now been superceded by an election. He's also facing a criminal investigation that must run its course.
Continuing to jab has no purpose any more, and is cruel to a fragile individual.
I agree.
It is interesting to look at the attitudes of posters on this board to say Chris Davies, Jared O'Mara and Keith Vaz. Three bad boys.
It is clear to me that the baddest is Vaz. Prostitution and cocaine.
However, it is Davies and O'Mara who have the LibDems in a towering rage. The LibDems fulminate about their badness.
Yet, their offences seem minor to me. And O'Mara clearly needs help not censure.
I wonder why. It looks as the the really bad thing that Chris Davies and Jared O'Mara did was occupy LibDem target seats.
I know I'm not the most sophisticated but my opinion of Keith Vaz has improved immensely since I heard about the prostitutes and cocaine. I'd prefer him to be in to that than sleazing money out of the taxpayer.
I like a bad boy/girl.
You seem to forget he was also expert expense claimer. And still many questions about how he has funded his lifestyle for many years.
Yeah, but like I said, my opinion of him has improved.
I used to think he was a sleazy, oily, social-climbing, over-promoted, supercilious wanker and now I still think he is all those things but at least he has a fun social life.
They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.
But, will there be debates?
There should be. Let's hope there are.
indeed. This is the most important GE most of us have known. I suspect only JackW can remember the great reforming GE of 1906
So there really really really should be TV debates. Scandalous if there aren't.
I dunno about anyone else, but I veer between at least four different scenarios. From big Boris majority to narrow Corbyn plurality to weird Lib Dem breakthrough.
But, hand on heart, gun to head, palm on Bible, red hot iron brand near my lying tongue, what do I really expect?
The SNP won't do quite as well as they hope. Unionists will vote tactically. The LDs will fail to make huge gains, but they will pick up some plum Remain seats. Corbyn will do better than expected, after another decent campaign, but not as well as the last GE, and he will still be kryptonite to millions. Boris will campaign adequately.
Result: a very narrow Boris majority. 5-20. After that, who knows.
That's where I am too, but it's guesswork and campaign will be critical, as you imply.
I do hope that SeanT and Byronic managed to meet up for lunch together in New Orleans.
I wish people would rebadge themselves a bit more thoughtfully. I get an Alanis bloody Morissette earworm for the rest of the day every time I read "Byronic."
It must have been quite the blow to his colossal ego when the carefully crafted persona and backstory that he chose to sneak back with lasted about 2 minutes before everyone worked out who it was.
If I were SeanT, which I am not, my already enormous ego would be inflated even more by the fact you desperate fanbois are STILL banging on about him. It is clearly homoerotic.
I worked out long ago that you are Tim – the ying to Sean's yang.
CORBYNIST anagram - ST BYRONIC.
How spooky is that.
Extraordinary.
It will end up with a minority government is my prediction. New GE in March/April
They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.
But, will there be debates?
No.
That's pathetic. (not you, the parties who run away from TV)
Heh. Guido got hold of O'Mara's Twitter account, and is posting all the unflattering stories about him. https://twitter.com/jaredomaramp
Probably time to leave O'Mara alone now.
I was critical when he left his seat unrepresented, and would neither give up his salary nor make proper arrangements.
But it's also clear he has mental health problems, and the resignation issue has now been superceded by an election. He's also facing a criminal investigation that must run its course.
Continuing to jab has no purpose any more, and is cruel to a fragile individual.
I agree.
It is interesting to look at the attitudes of posters on this board to say Chris Davies, Jared O'Mara and Keith Vaz. Three bad boys.
It is clear to me that the baddest is Vaz. Prostitution and cocaine.
However, it is Davies and O'Mara who have the LibDems in a towering rage. The LibDems fulminate about their badness.
Yet, their offences seem minor to me. And O'Mara clearly needs help not censure.
I wonder why. It looks as the the really bad thing that Chris Davies and Jared O'Mara did was occupy LibDem target seats.
Sexual harrassment and abuse is worse in my eyes than either prostitution or drugs.
One has a victim, the other two does not.
You are seriously claiming the trade in illicit drugs and prostitution has no victims?
They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.
But, will there be debates?
Boris Bunter is more likely to blow up on the basis that he is a very poor speaker, who mumbles and can't communicate properly, rather than anything in his private life, which few people care about and which is priced in anyway.
They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.
But, will there be debates?
My advice on debates would be for Boris to take the Thatcher route and to demolish socialism and not the proponents of socialism. There was nobody better than her at articulating the benefits of a free-market over what she termed a 'pitiless ideology'.
Boris is pretty good with words and my advice would be to do the debates and excoriate the ideology, not Corbyn himself.
Heh. Guido got hold of O'Mara's Twitter account, and is posting all the unflattering stories about him. https://twitter.com/jaredomaramp
Probably time to leave O'Mara alone now.
I was critical when he left his seat unrepresented, and would neither give up his salary nor make proper arrangements.
But it's also clear he has mental health problems, and the resignation issue has now been superceded by an election. He's also facing a criminal investigation that must run its course.
Continuing to jab has no purpose any more, and is cruel to a fragile individual.
I agree.
It is interesting to look at the attitudes of posters on this board to say Chris Davies, Jared O'Mara and Keith Vaz. Three bad boys.
It is clear to me that the baddest is Vaz. Prostitution and cocaine.
However, it is Davies and O'Mara who have the LibDems in a towering rage. The LibDems fulminate about their badness.
Yet, their offences seem minor to me. And O'Mara clearly needs help not censure.
I wonder why. It looks as the the really bad thing that Chris Davies and Jared O'Mara did was occupy LibDem target seats.
I know I'm not the most sophisticated but my opinion of Keith Vaz has improved immensely since I heard about the prostitutes and cocaine. I'd prefer him to be in to that than sleazing money out of the taxpayer.
I like a bad boy/girl.
You seem to forget he was also expert expense claimer. And still many questions about how he has funded his lifestyle for many years.
Yeah, but like I said, my opinion of him has improved.
I used to think he was a sleazy, oily, social-climbing, over-promoted, supercilious wanker and now I still think he is all those things but at least he has a fun social life.
Don't forget he can also sort of you a washing machine at a cracking price.
Comments
So Bozo's going to duck all the election debates then?
Education fares little better, as we slip further and further down the international league tables.
And the paucity of ideas or talent in the Senedd is depressing. Labour continues to fail Wales but after two decades in power, still its only answer is to blame Whitehall.
Depressing. And hopefully Labour will get the rest of the kicking this time they were due in 2017.
He and I never talks politics as he is just not interested - but now it seems he is.
Will Quince gets a +1 in his column and actually my wife who thinks the Lib Dem candidate is a top guy (as do I ) will vote tories to keep Labour out and deliver Brexit.
Its basically a parody account, not his real one.
I predict a Tory majority of around 40, 50 Tory gains from Labour, 15 losses to the LDs and 8 losses to the SNP
----------------------------------------------------
You are more confident than me.
I want Corbyn crushed but I'm worried that the anti-Tory element in Lab constituencies remains strong.
Corbyn’s Labour, Swinson’s LDs and Sturgeon’s SNP don’t have reams in common.
I was critical when he left his seat unrepresented, and would neither give up his salary nor make proper arrangements.
But it's also clear he has mental health problems, and the resignation issue has now been superceded by an election. He's also facing a criminal investigation that must run its course.
Continuing to jab has no purpose any more, and is cruel to a fragile individual.
I must say, I’m hesitating. What am I donating for?
My biggest worry right now is on Conservative attitudes to balancing the budget and the macroeconomy.
Indeed so and those appearing in the seventh such week are likely to include the actual GE RESULT!
As Britain prepares for its fifth nationwide ballot in four years, much is hanging in the balance
By Matthew Goodwin"
https://unherd.com/2019/10/what-will-survive-this-seismic-election/
I felt far more comfortable about a solid Theresa May win on 43 or 44% of the vote in 2017.
Fun.
That should focus minds wonderfully.
I have three levels of engagement in this campaign:
Level 1 - shitshow: I either abstain, deface my ballot or vote for an independent Conservative. This applies if I simply can’t support the manifesto, the leadership or what I think they’ll do with power. (I would never vote LD)
Level 2 - Voter: I am assured on fiscal responsibility and the macro-economy. Boris tones it down and acts statesman like and inclusively. I vote Conservative.
Level 3 - Campaigner: I am inspired that the Conservatives have the right long-term plan for the country and the Union, with common-sense and good judgement applied to all issues, with a manifesto I’m wholeheartedly enthusiastic about.
I don’t expect to get past Level 2, at best.
(2) The 'victim' is aware of what's happened. All transparent.
(3) It's bloody funny.
"Wow.
When we started our crowdfunder last night, we were hoping to raise £50k in 48 hours to hire the team we need to win the election.
We have absolutely smashed this target, with 4,600 of you collectively donating more than £100k within the first 12 hours of the campaign. This is an unprecedented amount to have raised so quickly, and just goes to show the strength and commitment of our movement. Thank you!"
Apparently nearly at 200k as at 2.30pm
Who, then... Gove ?
And I say this even after Monday's triumphant announcement that "Aboo Bakar Albagdaddy is DEAD".
Con 363, Lab 186, LD 31, SNP 48.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Guess they're actually happy to take the fine, tbh.
But, hand on heart, gun to head, palm on Bible, red hot iron brand near my lying tongue, what do I really expect?
The SNP won't do quite as well as they hope. Unionists will vote tactically.
The LDs will fail to make huge gains, but they will pick up some plum Remain seats.
Corbyn will do better than expected, after another decent campaign, but not as well as the last GE, and he will still be kryptonite to millions.
Boris will campaign adequately.
Result: a very narrow Boris majority. 5-20. After that, who knows.
Have seen a few people mention that 2017 was odd (and had aspects that won't repeat) so was curious to see if applying current polling to 2015 results gives more insight.
How spooky is that.
It is interesting to look at the attitudes of posters on this board to say Chris Davies, Jared O'Mara and Keith Vaz. Three bad boys.
It is clear to me that the baddest is Vaz. Prostitution and cocaine.
However, it is Davies and O'Mara who have the LibDems in a towering rage. The LibDems fulminate about their badness.
Yet, their offences seem minor to me. And O'Mara clearly needs help not censure.
I wonder why. It looks as the the really bad thing that Chris Davies and Jared O'Mara did was occupy LibDem target seats.
The problem is Johnson is as much an interventionist as May. He is also a centraliser as he showed when Mayor of London when he took control of TfL and the Met directly into the Mayor's office. He will do the same and No.10 will be the place of influence with the Cabinet and Parliament side-lined.
He's also making spending commitments which would make an old-fashioned Labour CoE blush together with promising tax cuts to all and sundry so it's a debt-fuelled boom he's after for which we will end up paying later.
As you say, the modern Conservative seems to think not only that there is no problem which can't be solved by throwing money at it but also no problem which can't be solved by legislation or State intervention.
Quite a lot of LibDem members are not in agreement, and making their voice heard on Twitter at the moment. But it's an important and clear commitment. It'd hurt the party at the polls if voters believe that she might get into bed with Boris or Jeremy.
Oh, and there's no chance she'll lose her seat.
I like a bad boy/girl.
One has a victim, the other two does not.
Could be I suppose.
Dear Nick,
Just confirming you saw the Prime Minister’s email regarding the general election on December 12.
We are asking you to become a Founding Donor for the campaign.
Our reports suggest that Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party are already collecting campaign funds. We need to fight back.
Become a Founding Donor
Kind regards,
Ben Elliot
Chairman of the Conservative Party
Presumably, if the seats are weighted by implied probability, then there is only a narrow Tory majority.
It suggests that there are many marginal seats that the model is just giving to the Tories.
Do we know if there will be TV debates?
They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.
But, will there be debates?
The 52% and 365 sort of makes sense if you look at the chart below of the pollsters. 5 pollsters say NOM, 4 pollsters say Large Tory Majority, 1 pollster and his average says moderate Tory majority.
I used to think he was a sleazy, oily, social-climbing, over-promoted, supercilious wanker and now I still think he is all those things but at least he has a fun social life.
So there really really really should be TV debates. Scandalous if there aren't.
Boris is pretty good with words and my advice would be to do the debates and excoriate the ideology, not Corbyn himself.