Well I've got a wife and 2 grown up daughters and their opinion of Bozo cannot be repeated on a family programme. And it's nothing to do with Brexit - it's all about his attitude to women.
I think most of the people who post on here are men - Cyclefree and Beverly are the only women I see on here regularly AFAIK. But I think many many women will share my female relatives' antipathy to Bozo's louche and disreputable personal life.
Hmm, beware of extrapolation from small, unrepresentative samples, especially if the women concerned weren't likely to vote Tory in the first place. If you look at the figures in Mike's header, there's not that much difference in the Boris unfavourability figures between men and women (and in both cases the figures for Corbyn are very much worse).
The advantage Corbyn has in debates is he has spent 40 years rehearsing his lines and now there is enough of an audience willing to at least listen to his crack pot ideas as an alternative to their stagnating incomes etc due to globalisation.
Boris changes position every 5 minutes.
Yeso keep it light," would be my mantra.
My mum said, the other day, "I like Boris. He makes me laugh".
Millions will vote on that basis. Boris is not depressing. Corbyn is.
My mum said, the other day, "I hate Boris. He is a disgusting lying sack of shit."
(I paraphrase, but only slightly). He certainly does not have the mum vote sewn up.
Well I've got ao Bozo's louche and disreputable personal life.
I'm also a female poster, I have voted for people I didn't like in the past (e.g. Salmond) but would not vote for Boris. I'm in my mid 40s.
Vox pop of parent earlier in the week (mid 70s) - she can't stand the bumbling overgrown public schoolboy persona, but his shambolic home life wasn't an issue for her.
The people who hate Boris tend to be very leftwing, very irritated by poshness, or hardcore Remainers like Mister Smithson the Oldest. Boris is probably not going to win around many of those, whatever he does.
Does Boris have a specific woman problem? Some polls say yes, some pollsters think he does not.
"“There’s just not much evidence to suggest that women feel differently from men about him,” says Deborah Mattinson, CEO of Britain Thinks, which will next week publish the findings of focus groups conducted with women in Reading and Liverpool. “The big divide is age – older people like him more than younger ones, and leavers like him more than remainers.”
"Both sexes question his integrity, she says, but find him charismatic; focus groups generally shrug off the breakdown of his marriage to wife Marina or his new girlfriend Carrie Symonds’ move into No 10. “They’ll say: ‘Look, this is 2019, people don’t necessarily live happily ever.’”"
My point is not gender anyway, it is that Yes Boris is disliked by many, but he is actively LIKED by many, as well. He makes them laugh, he cheers them up (like my Mum) and in this grey depressing winter of Brexit discontent, that might be a clincher.
lol. Did I say ALL OF BRITAIN will vote for Boris coz they like him?
No. But millions will. That's certain. The presence of Boris in the Leave campaign won it for Leave, as Cameron know, all too well, when he heard that Boris had switched sides.
Your hatred of Boris blinds you to his electoral appeal, in certain areas of the electorate.
I do sense that this is right. I was walking through a tunnel the other evening and moving quickly because there was a bunch of 'lads' behind me - a bit rough sounding - and they were being raucous.
Heard the following exchange -
"Fucking Boris eh?"
"Yeah, love him. Fucking player inni."
Millions? Quite possibly. This country is not full of political sophisticates.
I think this forum has a bit of a collective blindspot as social grades A and B are massively over-represented. Conversely, I can't imagine there are many C2s or Ds who post on here.
This is why I believe many people are overestimating the LDs. The LDs will do very well with As and Bs but I think they will struggle with C2DEs
The advantage Corbyn has in debates is he has spent 40 years rehearsing his lines and now there is enough of an audience willing to at least listen to his crack pot ideas as an alternative to their stagnating incomes etc due to globalisation.
Boris changes position every 5 minutes.
Yes. Corbyn believes in what he says. He's a conviction politician. Johnson doesn't and isn't. That could become apparent in a TV debate of any depth. Perhaps Johnson could mask his essential vacuousness with 'persona' - as he is skilled at doing - but it's risk. If I were his adviser I would tell him to avoid one on ones with Corbyn. If he has to do a debate for the optics I would ensure it was a scrum with multiple players, the sort of affair where Johnson does not have to speak at length or field too many direct individual questions. What he SHOULD be doing a lot of, I would tell him, is bantering and clowning around with the public in unstructured situations, he is better at that stuff than almost any politician I can think of. "You're a lightweight, Boris, so keep it light," would be my mantra.
My mum said, the other day, "I like Boris. He makes me laugh".
Millions will vote on that basis. Boris is not depressing. Corbyn is.
My mum said, the other day, "I hate Boris. He is a disgusting lying sack of shit."
(I paraphrase, but only slightly). He certainly does not have the mum vote sewn up.
And yet, Boris is still way nicer than the people that Corbyn surrounds himself with. What's a mum to do?
Yep I think I do need to clarify. My posting was as much a defence of those who voted for Brexit as a means for change as it was a defence of any individual politicians of any colour or persuasion.
I think the only way Boris continues the (rather muted perhaps) revolution is by accident and that in the end he will rightly be one of the victims of it. I won't mourn him if that happens. Basically I, and I believe others like me, are looking for anything that shakes up the system and ignites change without (hopefully) any resort to violence.
Our whole political system is currently unfit for purpose and I think those like Nigel who are bemoaning the loss of old fashioned Conservatism or the old fashioned political consensus and blaming Brexit for that are seriously misreading both the causes and the effects of this change.
As someone who voted LEAVE as well, I think your motives were and are deeper than many if not most. At least you have thought through the "change" you want to see rather than using Brexit as an unfocussed mechanism for change.
I'm assuming your view is the passing of so much decision-making and accountability from Westminster to Brussels has debilitated the political process so much no party needs to stand for anything as within the EU we are operating within a clearly restrained environment.
While I accept the notion of the political process being unfit for purpose, what replaces it? How do we design something that works for the 21st century with all the technological advances that come with that? I'm a big supporter of devolution and empowering local communities but how does that operate?
Jeremy Corbyn: "Our NHS should be focused on making people better, not making a wealthy few richer" #PMQs
I know I'm not the target audience, but I feel like I've heard the same messages on the NHS my entire life and while things undoubtedly change, the nature of the messages being so unceasing means it feels like nothing ever changes with it.
So I just tune it out completely. Labour say tories have will ruin the NHS, Tories say no they wont and Labour messed it up, as constant as gravity in a very constant place.
There are similar unchanging lines for both sides on various issues and it must work, but it's just tiresome.
lol. Did I say ALL OF BRITAIN will vote for Boris coz they like him?
No. But millions will. That's certain. The presence of Boris in the Leave campaign won it for Leave, as Cameron know, all too well, when he heard that Boris had switched sides.
Your hatred of Boris blinds you to his electoral appeal, in certain areas of the electorate.
I do sense that this is right. I was walking through a tunnel the other evening and moving quickly because there was a bunch of 'lads' behind me - a bit rough sounding - and they were being raucous. Heard the following exchange -
"Fucking Boris eh?"
"Yeah, love him. Fucking player inni."
Millions? Quite possibly. This country is not full of political sophisticates.
The advantage Corbyn has in debates is he has spent 40 years rehearsing his lines and now there is enough of an audience willing to at least listen to his crack pot ideas as an alternative to their stagnating incomes etc due to globalisation.
Boris changes position every 5 minutes.
Yeso keep it light," would be my mantra.
My mum said, the other day, "I like Boris. He makes me laugh".
Millions will vote on that basis. Boris is not depressing. Corbyn is.
My mum said, the other day, "I hate Boris. He is a disgusting lying sack of shit."
(I paraphrase, but only slightly). He certainly does not have the mum vote sewn up.
Well I've got ao Bozo's louche and disreputable personal life.
I'm also a female poster, I have voted for people I didn't like in the past (e.g. Salmond) but would not vote for Boris. I'm in my mid 40s.
Vox pop of parent earlier in the week (mid 70s) - she can't stand the bumbling overgrown public schoolboy persona, but his shambolic home life wasn't an issue for her.
The people who hate Boris tend to be very leftwing, very irritated by poshness, or hardcore Remainers like Mister Smithson the Oldest. Boris is probably not going to win around many of those, whatever he does.
Does Boris have a specific woman problem? Some polls say yes, some pollsters think he does not.
"“There’s just not much evidence to suggest that women feel differently from men about him,” says Deborah Mattinson, CEO of Britain Thinks, which will next week publish the findings of focus groups conducted with women in Reading and Liverpool. “The big divide is age – older people like him more than younger ones, and leavers like him more than remainers.”
"Both sexes question his integrity, she says, but find him charismatic; focus groups generally shrug off the breakdown of his marriage to wife Marina or his new girlfriend Carrie Symonds’ move into No 10. “They’ll say: ‘Look, this is 2019, people don’t necessarily live happily ever.’”"
My point is not gender anyway, it is that Yes Boris is disliked by many, but he is actively LIKED by many, as well. He makes them laugh, he cheers them up (like my Mum) and in this grey depressing winter of Brexit discontent, that might be a clincher.
My mother is actively considering voting Tory, as 'at least Boris is trying to move things forward', and Corbyn's Islington leftie schtick does not wash at all.
They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.
But, will there be debates?
There should be. Let's hope there are.
Issue is format. You know that SKY and Channel 4 will just want a format that stands most chance of damaging Boris. Which means having about 11 party leaders, all vying to take most lumps out of him. Farage? Sure. DUP? The more the merrier. Greta? Be our guest.....
The potential PMs please. Boris v. Corbyn. That would be worth a watch. The rest? Nah....
I'd say Swinson has a better chance of becoming PM than Corbyn.
LibDem wannabes, hasbeens and half-bakedbeens deserve Swinson, the rest of us don't so I'd welcome your reasoning so I can sleep at night.
The reasoning is surely that Corbyn has a low ceiling - too many who won't vote for him, such that it almost completely rules him out. Swinson's Lib Dems will probably finish behind Labour but, if they do get some good polling in the campaign, the ceiling on the potential support is pretty high.
This, incidentally, has always been Farage's problem getting himself and others into Parliament. They poll okay sometimes, but the ceiling on their support is too low to translate it into seats.
But doesn't Swinson (unlike any Con/ Lab candidate) have to get out of the cellar before she thinks about a ceiling? Time may change this but Dec 2019 seems a bit quick.
Well I've got a wife and 2 grown up daughters and their opinion of Bozo cannot be repeated on a family programme. And it's nothing to do with Brexit - it's all about his attitude to women.
I think most of the people who post on here are men - Cyclefree and Beverly are the only women I see on here regularly AFAIK. But I think many many women will share my female relatives' antipathy to Bozo's louche and disreputable personal life.
Hmm, beware of extrapolation from small, unrepresentative samples, especially if the women concerned weren't likely to vote Tory in the first place. If you look at the figures in Mike's header, there's not that much difference in the Boris unfavourability figures between men and women (and in both cases the figures for Corbyn are very much worse).
Important to note that there is a visceral loathing of Boris, from Remainers, not just because he is a Leaver, but because he was instrumental in WINNING the referendum for Leave. He is the arch-Leaver, the Brexit devil incarnate, even more than Farage, Hannan, Cummings, etc
I therefore think attitudes towards him, from Remainers, are much more emotive, and subconscious, than they realise.
Reflexively, they hate him, they try to work out why they hate him, then they decide it is because of his lying, his hair, his womanizing, his bumbling persona, his fiscal profligacy, his untucked shirts, and so on.
It's not. It's because he is Brigadier Brexit, and deep down they can never forgive his role in the war.
As an aside, I want to get Brexit done. While I am not the greatest fan of Boris's deal, it'll do.
But I am also loathe to vote for someone I believe to be fundamentally dishonest, and for whom process is an anathema. At some point, it's not merely a matter of "are they on my side", but it's also a question of whether I am prepared to be complicit in someone who is weakening our instutitions.
If this last Parliament has demonstrated anything it is that individual MPs do matter and are not all lobby fodder. You don't have to make your decision solely on the party policy, or the probity of the party leader, but can consider the merits of the candidates.
Farage's problem if his party doesn't stand in vast swathes of the country is that he'll struggle to make a case for broadcast parity, for involvement in leadership debates and so on.
Is it worth sacrificing meaningful access to the air war in exchange for the Tories soft pedaling in a couple of places? I'm not sure it is myself.
However, he would look a bit of a dick if he knocks 10 per cent off the Tory vote, handing victory to Lab/Lib challengers in tight seats and single-handedly kills off Brexit.
An aggressive BXP campaign would be the ultimate indicator that Farage is more bothered about getting his gurning visage on the box moaning than delivering Brexit.
lol. Did I say ALL OF BRITAIN will vote for Boris coz they like him?
No. But millions will. That's certain. The presence of Boris in the Leave campaign won it for Leave, as Cameron know, all too well, when he heard that Boris had switched sides.
Your hatred of Boris blinds you to his electoral appeal, in certain areas of the electorate.
I do sense that this is right. I was walking through a tunnel the other evening and moving quickly because there was a bunch of 'lads' behind me - a bit rough sounding - and they were being raucous. Heard the following exchange -
"Fucking Boris eh?"
"Yeah, love him. Fucking player inni."
Millions? Quite possibly. This country is not full of political sophisticates.
We had some damp work done recently. The guy was probably early fifties, very Cornish working class.
"That Boris, he's stirred things up alright", he said chuckling approvingly to himself.
(How many anecdotes do we need before we get a meaningful sample?)
Boris was expected to be part of the Remain camp very shortly before the campaign began. It was a big surprise when he supported Leave, and most people thought it was just a way for him to differentiate himself from Cameron.
Important to note that there is a visceral loathing of Boris, from Remainers, not just because he is a Leaver, but because he was instrumental in WINNING the referendum for Leave. He is the arch-Leaver, the Brexit devil incarnate, even more than Farage, Hannan, Cummings, etc
I therefore think attitudes towards him, from Remainers, are much more emotive, and subconscious, than they realise.
Reflexively, they hate him, they try to work out why they hate him, then they decide it is because of his lying, his hair, his womanizing, his bumbling persona, his fiscal profligacy, his untucked shirts, and so on.
It's not. It's because he is Brigadier Brexit, and deep down they can never forgive his role in the war.
That may be so, and made worse by the apparent fact that he brought all this chaos on us without even believing in the cause.
Telegraph saying Corbyn wants one on one debate with Boris, no place for the 4th party.
That makes sense for Corbyn. I predict Johnson will turn it down in favour of a multiple participant format.
Yes I agree. Makes sense from his perspective. It’s the Cameron strategy and under campaign airtime restrictions the other leaders will all agreed a multi-leader debate is right and taunt Corbyn if he backs off.
A multi-leader debate gets Boris the role of being the only person present in favour of a deal, which he’ll go on about getting against the odds. Anything one on one and he’s trading NHS stats with Corbyn.
Well I've got a wife and 2 grown up daughters and their opinion of Bozo cannot be repeated on a family programme. And it's nothing to do with Brexit - it's all about his attitude to women.
I think most of the people who post on here are men - Cyclefree and Beverly are the only women I see on here regularly AFAIK. But I think many many women will share my female relatives' antipathy to Bozo's louche and disreputable personal life.
Hmm, beware of extrapolation from small, unrepresentative samples, especially if the women concerned weren't likely to vote Tory in the first place. If you look at the figures in Mike's header, there's not that much difference in the Boris unfavourability figures between men and women (and in both cases the figures for Corbyn are very much worse).
Important to note that there is a visceral loathing of Boris, from Remainers, not just because he is a Leaver, but because he was instrumental in WINNING the referendum for Leave. He is the arch-Leaver, the Brexit devil incarnate, even more than Farage, Hannan, Cummings, etc
I therefore think attitudes towards him, from Remainers, are much more emotive, and subconscious, than they realise.
Reflexively, they hate him, they try to work out why they hate him, then they decide it is because of his lying, his hair, his womanizing, his bumbling persona, his fiscal profligacy, his untucked shirts, and so on.
It's not. It's because he is Brigadier Brexit, and deep down they can never forgive his role in the war.
None of which explains our leave voting Mums who feel precisely the same way about him...
As an aside, I want to get Brexit done. While I am not the greatest fan of Boris's deal, it'll do.
But I am also loathe to vote for someone I believe to be fundamentally dishonest, and for whom process is an anathema. At some point, it's not merely a matter of "are they on my side", but it's also a question of whether I am prepared to be complicit in someone who is weakening our instutitions.
I have similar thoughts but one step at a time eh? I don't think BJ will have an easy ride from Tories for very long even if he gets us out.
Well I've got a wife and 2 grown up daughters and their opinion of Bozo cannot be repeated on a family programme. And it's nothing to do with Brexit - it's all about his attitude to women.
I think most of the people who post on here are men - Cyclefree and Beverly are the only women I see on here regularly AFAIK. But I think many many women will share my female relatives' antipathy to Bozo's louche and disreputable personal life.
Hmm, beware of extrapolation from small, unrepresentative samples, especially if the women concerned weren't likely to vote Tory in the first place. If you look at the figures in Mike's header, there's not that much difference in the Boris unfavourability figures between men and women (and in both cases the figures for Corbyn are very much worse).
Important to note that there is a visceral loathing of Boris, from Remainers, not just because he is a Leaver, but because he was instrumental in WINNING the referendum for Leave. He is the arch-Leaver, the Brexit devil incarnate, even more than Farage, Hannan, Cummings, etc
I therefore think attitudes towards him, from Remainers, are much more emotive, and subconscious, than they realise.
Reflexively, they hate him, they try to work out why they hate him, then they decide it is because of his lying, his hair, his womanizing, his bumbling persona, his fiscal profligacy, his untucked shirts, and so on.
It's not. It's because he is Brigadier Brexit, and deep down they can never forgive his role in the war.
None of which explains our leave voting Mums who feel precisely the same way about him...
Byronic is still transitioning, (t)he(y) is/are yet to fully understand what it is to be woman.
lol. Did I say ALL OF BRITAIN will vote for Boris coz they like him?
No. But millions will. That's certain. The presence of Boris in the Leave campaign won it for Leave, as Cameron know, all too well, when he heard that Boris had switched sides.
Your hatred of Boris blinds you to his electoral appeal, in certain areas of the electorate.
I do sense that this is right. I was walking through a tunnel the other evening and moving quickly because there was a bunch of 'lads' behind me - a bit rough sounding - and they were being raucous. Heard the following exchange -
"Fucking Boris eh?"
"Yeah, love him. Fucking player inni."
Millions? Quite possibly. This country is not full of political sophisticates.
We had some damp work done recently. The guy was probably early fifties, very Cornish working class.
"That Boris, he's stirred things up alright", he said chuckling approvingly to himself.
(How many anecdotes do we need before we get a meaningful sample?)
We need an opinion poll, before we all drive ourselves mad incessantly asking random tradespeople and our own parents to predict the vote share.
lol. Did I say ALL OF BRITAIN will vote for Boris coz they like him?
No. But millions will. That's certain. The presence of Boris in the Leave campaign won it for Leave, as Cameron know, all too well, when he heard that Boris had switched sides.
Your hatred of Boris blinds you to his electoral appeal, in certain areas of the electorate.
I do sense that this is right. I was walking through a tunnel the other evening and moving quickly because there was a bunch of 'lads' behind me - a bit rough sounding - and they were being raucous. Heard the following exchange -
"Fucking Boris eh?"
"Yeah, love him. Fucking player inni."
Millions? Quite possibly. This country is not full of political sophisticates.
We had some damp work done recently. The guy was probably early fifties, very Cornish working class.
"That Boris, he's stirred things up alright", he said chuckling approvingly to himself.
(How many anecdotes do we need before we get a meaningful sample?)
I was in the vet’s waiting room yesterday and there were these two people talking. But they didn’t mention Boris at all.
lol. Did I say ALL OF BRITAIN will vote for Boris coz they like him?
No. But millions will. That's certain. The presence of Boris in the Leave campaign won it for Leave, as Cameron know, all too well, when he heard that Boris had switched sides.
Your hatred of Boris blinds you to his electoral appeal, in certain areas of the electorate.
I do sense that this is right. I was walking through a tunnel the other evening and moving quickly because there was a bunch of 'lads' behind me - a bit rough sounding - and they were being raucous. Heard the following exchange -
"Fucking Boris eh?"
"Yeah, love him. Fucking player inni."
Millions? Quite possibly. This country is not full of political sophisticates.
Cast iron certainties to vote, all of them.
Well, now there's no Champion's League footie clash.....
Completely OT. Just returned from the Biennale in Venice and it was on the whole pathetic. As you might expect most of the offerings concerned climate change and the environment. All well meaning and probably underfunded but if someone doesn't get hold of this movement while it's hot and give it direction it'll die a death. If ever there has been a need for marketing people to get involved and save something worthwhile before it disappears into tediousness now is the time.
lol. Did I say ALL OF BRITAIN will vote for Boris coz they like him?
No. But millions will. That's certain. The presence of Boris in the Leave campaign won it for Leave, as Cameron know, all too well, when he heard that Boris had switched sides.
Your hatred of Boris blinds you to his electoral appeal, in certain areas of the electorate.
I do sense that this is right. I was walking through a tunnel the other evening and moving quickly because there was a bunch of 'lads' behind me - a bit rough sounding - and they were being raucous. Heard the following exchange -
"Fucking Boris eh?"
"Yeah, love him. Fucking player inni."
Millions? Quite possibly. This country is not full of political sophisticates.
We had some damp work done recently. The guy was probably early fifties, very Cornish working class.
"That Boris, he's stirred things up alright", he said chuckling approvingly to himself.
(How many anecdotes do we need before we get a meaningful sample?)
Whenever i wonder if Boris is popular with "ordinary people", I watch this meaningful sample of about 300 Oldham Athletic fans
The advantage Corbyn has in debates is he has spent 40 years rehearsing his lines and now there is enough of an audience willing to at least listen to his crack pot ideas as an alternative to their stagnating incomes etc due to globalisation.
Boris changes position every 5 minutes.
Yes. Corbyn believes in what he says. He's a conviction politician. Johnson doesn't and isn't. That could become apparent in a TV debate of any depth. Perhaps Johnson could mask his essential vacuousness with 'persona' - as he is skilled at doing - but it's risk. If I were his adviser I would tell him to avoid one on ones with Corbyn. If he has to do a debate for the optics I would ensure it was a scrum with multiple players, the sort of affair where Johnson does not have to speak at length or field too many direct individual questions. What he SHOULD be doing a lot of, I would tell him, is bantering and clowning around with the public in unstructured situations, he is better at that stuff than almost any politician I can think of. "You're a lightweight, Boris, so keep it light," would be my mantra.
My mum said, the other day, "I like Boris. He makes me laugh".
Millions will vote on that basis. Boris is not depressing. Corbyn is.
My mum said, the other day, "I hate Boris. He is a disgusting lying sack of shit."
(I paraphrase, but only slightly). He certainly does not have the mum vote sewn up.
OTOH, lots of women view him in the same light as Lord Flashheart.
And many who view him in the same light as your mother will take the view that at least he's *our* disgusting, lying, sack of shit.
Well I've got a wife and 2 grown up daughters and their opinion of Bozo cannot be repeated on a family programme. And it's nothing to do with Brexit - it's all about his attitude to women.
I think most of the people who post on here are men - Cyclefree and Beverly are the only women I see on here regularly AFAIK. But I think many many women will share my female relatives' antipathy to Bozo's louche and disreputable personal life.
Hmm, beware of extrapolation from small, unrepresentative samples, especially if the women concerned weren't likely to vote Tory in the first place. If you look at the figures in Mike's header, there's not that much difference in the Boris unfavourability figures between men and women (and in both cases the figures for Corbyn are very much worse).
I think that's fair, Johnson is polarising, but so is Corbyn. Being hated by people who woud never vote for your party in the first place doesn't necessarily matter unless it drives tactical voting against you.
To extrapolate from another tiny sample, my parents in law, who voted for Blair but then for Cameron are both apalled by Johnson. They voted remain (without great enthusiasm) but both think we should leave given the referendum result - they voted for May, without enthusiasm but as a better option than Corbyn. They're also apalled by Corbyn and their referendum position rules out LD, I guess (I'll have to ask them). From recent conversations I think it's possible they won't vote, although they've always done so in the past. It seems that the polarisation should drive a high turnout in this election, but I do wonder. Those in the centre who think Brexit has to happen given the referendum but are not enthusiastic for it and want a soft Brexit don't really have anyone to vote for - Con not soft Brexit and Johnson divisive, Corbyn not centrist, LDs strongly anti-Brexit. If voter turnout is depressed, who knows what might happen.
They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.
But, will there be debates?
There should be. Let's hope there are.
Issue is format. You know that SKY and Channel 4 will just want a format that stands most chance of damaging Boris. Which means having about 11 party leaders, all vying to take most lumps out of him. Farage? Sure. DUP? The more the merrier. Greta? Be our guest.....
The potential PMs please. Boris v. Corbyn. That would be worth a watch. The rest? Nah....
The more the merrier is helpful to Boris, because most of the opposition parties are fighting for a different section of voters than he. That's why Cameron forced the 2015 debates to be open to all whereas Miliband wanted the 1 v 1. I think Corbyn VS Johnson would be great for Labour and a big gamble for Johnson. Johnson will want Labour to be attacked on the remain flank by the lib dems and Greens, forcing Corbyn to talk about brexit more and be more explicitly remain.
The debates worked best in 2010. Since then they've gone to mush in the last two elections and haven't really moved any needles.
lol. Did I say ALL OF BRITAIN will vote for Boris coz they like him?
No. But millions will. That's certain. The presence of Boris in the Leave campaign won it for Leave, as Cameron know, all too well, when he heard that Boris had switched sides.
Your hatred of Boris blinds you to his electoral appeal, in certain areas of the electorate.
I do sense that this is right. I was walking through a tunnel the other evening and moving quickly because there was a bunch of 'lads' behind me - a bit rough sounding - and they were being raucous.
Heard the following exchange -
"Fucking Boris eh?"
"Yeah, love him. Fucking player inni."
Millions? Quite possibly. This country is not full of political sophisticates.
I think this forum has a bit of a collective blindspot as social grades A and B are massively over-represented. Conversely, I can't imagine there are many C2s or Ds who post on here.
This is why I believe many people are overestimating the LDs. The LDs will do very well with As and Bs but I think they will struggle with C2DEs
I think this board has always systematically over-estimated the LibDems in all GEs.
In 2015, and 2017, I had exactly the same discussion about the LibDems in Cambridge that I did this morning. They won't take Cambridge in 2019, just as they didn't in 2015 and 2017.
My guess is that they will lose most (if not all) of the seats of the switchers & they will lose their by-election gain of Brecon & Radnorshire.
They will take hardly any Labour seats, but some Tory seats look a gimme. My guess is they will end up in the range 25-30. An improvement, but not the sweeping arcs of orange that some posters gaily talk about.
rcs100 was a very accurate predictor of the LibDems last time. I'd trust his estimate. He's pretty bearish on their prospects again is my recollection.
Completely OT. Just returned from the Biennale in Venice and it was on the whole pathetic. As you might expect most of the offerings concerned climate change and the environment. All well meaning and probably underfunded but if someone doesn't get hold of this movement while it's hot and give it direction it'll die a death. If ever there has been a need for marketing people to get involved and save something worthwhile before it disappears into tediousness now is the time.
Are you saying modern art, the Biennale, Venice, the climate emergency campaign, or your personal lifestyle is "pathetic"? Or all of them? It isn't clear.
They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.
But, will there be debates?
There should be. Let's hope there are.
Issue is format. You know that SKY and Channel 4 will just want a format that stands most chance of damaging Boris. Which means having about 11 party leaders, all vying to take most lumps out of him. Farage? Sure. DUP? The more the merrier. Greta? Be our guest.....
The potential PMs please. Boris v. Corbyn. That would be worth a watch. The rest? Nah....
I'd say Swinson has a better chance of becoming PM than Corbyn.
She's second favourite behind Corbyn to be next PM.
Heh. Guido got hold of O'Mara's Twitter account, and is posting all the unflattering stories about him. https://twitter.com/jaredomaramp
Probably time to leave O'Mara alone now.
I was critical when he left his seat unrepresented, and would neither give up his salary nor make proper arrangements.
But it's also clear he has mental health problems, and the resignation issue has now been superceded by an election. He's also facing a criminal investigation that must run its course.
Continuing to jab has no purpose any more, and is cruel to a fragile individual.
I agree.
It is interesting to look at the attitudes of posters on this board to say Chris Davies, Jared O'Mara and Keith Vaz. Three bad boys.
It is clear to me that the baddest is Vaz. Prostitution and cocaine.
However, it is Davies and O'Mara who have the LibDems in a towering rage. The LibDems fulminate about their badness.
Yet, their offences seem minor to me. And O'Mara clearly needs help not censure.
I wonder why. It looks as the the really bad thing that Chris Davies and Jared O'Mara did was occupy LibDem target seats.
Sexual harrassment and abuse is worse in my eyes than either prostitution or drugs.
One has a victim, the other two does not.
You are seriously claiming the trade in illicit drugs and prostitution has no victims?
If prostitution is forced then that is like rape and a crime.
If prostitution is consensual then I couldn't care less about it and it is not as serious as sexual harrassment or abuse.
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer. Extraordinary.
You’re obsessed.
Dont you think its a strange thing for the PM to say and even stranger she appears to nod?
No.
Fair enough.
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer.
Definitely not at all unusual exchange.
The coalition nearly destroyed the Lib Dems. You’re crazy if you think they’ll go anywhere near that again.
You're very naive. The Lib Dems main aim is to get into power. Swinson sounds just like Clegg pre 2010. 100% she will do a deal and try and become Kingmaker with Tories or Labour.
Though I think any such attempt would involve considerably more conditions and circumspection than last time around. And neither Corbyn nor Johnson as king.
I can't conceive of any circumstances in which the LibDems go into coalition with the Tories. It would destroy their USP, alienate pretty much every new voter they've picked up, and their Brexit policy is such a polar opposite to the Tories (with a new batch of head-bangers coming in) that there isn't even a starting point to a negotiation.
Any situation where the Tories need a coalition is one where an alternative can be formed without them.
Maybe, but not for long.
Corbyn’s Labour, Swinson’s LDs and Sturgeon’s SNP don’t have reams in common.
There is a substantial chance that the next Parliament will be more chaotic than the last, with fewer experienced Parliamentarians to broker compromises.
lol. Did I say ALL OF BRITAIN will vote for Boris coz they like him?
No. But millions will. That's certain. The presence of Boris in the Leave campaign won it for Leave, as Cameron know, all too well, when he heard that Boris had switched sides.
Your hatred of Boris blinds you to his electoral appeal, in certain areas of the electorate.
I do sense that this is right. I was walking through a tunnel the other evening and moving quickly because there was a bunch of 'lads' behind me - a bit rough sounding - and they were being raucous.
Heard the following exchange -
"Fucking Boris eh?"
"Yeah, love him. Fucking player inni."
Millions? Quite possibly. This country is not full of political sophisticates.
I think this forum has a bit of a collective blindspot as social grades A and B are massively over-represented. Conversely, I can't imagine there are many C2s or Ds who post on here.
This is why I believe many people are overestimating the LDs. The LDs will do very well with As and Bs but I think they will struggle with C2DEs
I think this board has always systematically over-estimated the LibDems in all GEs.
In 2015, and 2017, I had exactly the same discussion about the LibDems in Cambridge that I did this morning. They won't take Cambridge in 2019, just as they didn't in 2015 and 2017.
My guess is that they will lose most (if not all) of the switchers & they will lose their by-election gain of Brecon & Radnorshire.
They will take hardly any Labour seats, but some Tory seats look a gimme. My guess is they will end up in the range 25-30. An improvement, but not the sweeping arcs of orange that some posters gaily talk about.
rcs100 was a very accurate predictor of the LibDems last time. I'd trust his estimate. He's pretty bearish on their prospects again is my recollection.
Most of the people I know vote Lib Dem, both family and otherwise.
Farage's problem if his party doesn't stand in vast swathes of the country is that he'll struggle to make a case for broadcast parity, for involvement in leadership debates and so on.
Is it worth sacrificing meaningful access to the air war in exchange for the Tories soft pedaling in a couple of places? I'm not sure it is myself.
However, he would look a bit of a dick if he knocks 10 per cent off the Tory vote, handing victory to Lab/Lib challengers in tight seats and single-handedly kills off Brexit.
An aggressive BXP campaign would be the ultimate indicator that Farage is more bothered about getting his gurning visage on the box moaning than delivering Brexit.
The risk for Farage is that he doesn't knock 10% off the Tory vote and is then a nobody. If his party stands everywhere and is squeezed down to the low single figures it will be the first time that brand Farage has gone backwards in a national election.
That's why he walked away from UKIP to avoid the squeeze at GE2017. That's why the talk of a pact now. He's in search of an exit strategy.
They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.
But, will there be debates?
On what basis would Swinson be allowed on? Surely not with just Jezza and Boris?
If she's in them it would have to be with the Greens, the SNP, Farage, the Welsh ones, and old uncle Tom Cobbley
Heh. Guido got hold of O'Mara's Twitter account, and is posting all the unflattering stories about him. https://twitter.com/jaredomaramp
Probably time to leave O'Mara alone now.
I was critical when he left his seat unrepresented, and would neither give up his salary nor make proper arrangements.
But it's also clear he has mental health problems, and the resignation issue has now been superceded by an election. He's also facing a criminal investigation that must run its course.
Continuing to jab has no purpose any more, and is cruel to a fragile individual.
I agree.
It is interesting to look at the attitudes of posters on this board to say Chris Davies, Jared O'Mara and Keith Vaz. Three bad boys.
It is clear to me that the baddest is Vaz. Prostitution and cocaine.
However, it is Davies and O'Mara who have the LibDems in a towering rage. The LibDems fulminate about their badness.
Yet, their offences seem minor to me. And O'Mara clearly needs help not censure.
I wonder why. It looks as the the really bad thing that Chris Davies and Jared O'Mara did was occupy LibDem target seats.
Sexual harrassment and abuse is worse in my eyes than either prostitution or drugs.
One has a victim, the other two does not.
You are seriously claiming the trade in illicit drugs and prostitution has no victims?
I would say that it is the fact drugs and prostitution are illicit so driven onto the black market that causes crimes.
Consensual drugs and prostitution should be frowned upon like tobacco but legal. Abusing and harassing peope is worse.
. .. Being hated by people who would never vote for your party in the first place doesn't necessarily matter unless it drives tactical voting against you. ...
Yes, this is a a key point. In the particular case of Boris, tactical voting is likely to be dampened by the fact that Corbyn is so much worse in many people's eyes.
It isn;t the working classes that capitalism hasn't worked for. Its the middle classes.
That why we have umpteen million 20 and 30something humanities grads earning thirty grand and paying seven hundred a month in rent or living at home with parents. With forty grand in student debt.
Those are Corbyn's core, surely.
This is a southern issue - no shortage of affordable housing right across the north of England.
A graduate earning 30k in Leeds or Manchester can afford a nice home, two graduates can get a large house with garden in which to raise a family.
I spent last week at home in Lancashire visiting family, and capitalism has worked out pretty well for the middle classes. I grew up there in the 70s/80s, and even though both my parents worked in professional jobs, there were no foreign holidays until I was 16, we only got a new car when my Dad was given a company car, and going to eat out was a rare treat.
Living standards are as high as they have ever been for the middle classes, but then so are expectations of what they/their children should be able to afford.
/four yorkshire man mode OFF/
The trouble is you then have to live up north with its vastly inferior climate
Farage's problem if his party doesn't stand in vast swathes of the country is that he'll struggle to make a case for broadcast parity, for involvement in leadership debates and so on.
Is it worth sacrificing meaningful access to the air war in exchange for the Tories soft pedaling in a couple of places? I'm not sure it is myself.
More immediately to the point for the Brexit party is that the only way in which we are not going in the end to remain is if the Conservatives win a working majority. The most likely figure for Brexit party seats is zero, even if they stand in 650 of them. If the Brexit party stand and lose a few seats for the Tories they are highly likely to be the major reason why we remain in the EU.
For Leavers this election looks very like a last chance. For the Brexit party to stand in selected Labour leave seats that the Tories cannot win is the only sane policy.
No reason to think sanity will prevail of course. Remainers would and will be crazy to put up two Remain candidates - Lab and LD - where doing so can let in the Tory. But they will.
Well I've got a wife and 2 grown up daughters and their opinion of Bozo cannot be repeated on a family programme. And it's nothing to do with Brexit - it's all about his attitude to women.
I think most of the people who post on here are men - Cyclefree and Beverly are the only women I see on here regularly AFAIK. But I think many many women will share my female relatives' antipathy to Bozo's louche and disreputable personal life.
Hmm, beware of extrapolation from small, unrepresentative samples, especially if the women concerned weren't likely to vote Tory in the first place. If you look at the figures in Mike's header, there's not that much difference in the Boris unfavourability figures between men and women (and in both cases the figures for Corbyn are very much worse).
Important to note that there is a visceral loathing of Boris, from Remainers, not just because he is a Leaver, but because he was instrumental in WINNING the referendum for Leave. He is the arch-Leaver, the Brexit devil incarnate, even more than Farage, Hannan, Cummings, etc
I therefore think attitudes towards him, from Remainers, are much more emotive, and subconscious, than they realise.
Reflexively, they hate him, they try to work out why they hate him, then they decide it is because of his lying, his hair, his womanizing, his bumbling persona, his fiscal profligacy, his untucked shirts, and so on.
It's not. It's because he is Brigadier Brexit, and deep down they can never forgive his role in the war.
You make some good points . When he was major of London I didn’t mind him . My issue with him isn’t that he supported Leave but his motives for doing so . In that respect I have much more time for members of the ERG who have had a long-standing view on leaving the EU . I might totally disagree with them but I didn’t see their view as trying to further their careers .
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer. Extraordinary.
You’re obsessed.
Dont you think its a strange thing for the PM to say and even stranger she appears to nod?
No.
Fair enough.
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer.
Definitely not at all unusual exchange.
The coalition nearly destroyed the Lib Dems. You’re crazy if you think they’ll go anywhere near that again.
You're very naive. The Lib Dems main aim is to get into power. Swinson sounds just like Clegg pre 2010. 100% she will do a deal and try and become Kingmaker with Tories or Labour.
Though I think any such attempt would involve considerably more conditions and circumspection than last time around. And neither Corbyn nor Johnson as king.
I can't conceive of any circumstances in which the LibDems go into coalition with the Tories. It would destroy their USP, alienate pretty much every new voter they've picked up, and their Brexit policy is such a polar opposite to the Tories (with a new batch of head-bangers coming in) that there isn't even a starting point to a negotiation.
Any situation where the Tories need a coalition is one where an alternative can be formed without them.
Maybe, but not for long.
Corbyn’s Labour, Swinson’s LDs and Sturgeon’s SNP don’t have reams in common.
There is a substantial chance that the next Parliament will be more chaotic than the last, with fewer experienced Parliamentarians to broker compromises.
"fewer experienced Parliamentarians"
Yes please
I suspect you would like supine ones instead? A rubber stamp parliament should appeal to the Leave voter!
Jeremy Corbyn: "Our NHS should be focused on making people better, not making a wealthy few richer" #PMQs
I know I'm not the target audience, but I feel like I've heard the same messages on the NHS my entire life and while things undoubtedly change, the nature of the messages being so unceasing means it feels like nothing ever changes with it.
So I just tune it out completely. Labour say tories have will ruin the NHS, Tories say no they wont and Labour messed it up, as constant as gravity in a very constant place.
There are similar unchanging lines for both sides on various issues and it must work, but it's just tiresome.
Views on the NHS are probably formed on the basis of first hand or closely associated experience, plus likelihood of future need. I think that probably leaves very few neutrals.
lol. Did I say ALL OF BRITAIN will vote for Boris coz they like him?
No. But millions will. That's certain. The presence of Boris in the Leave campaign won it for Leave, as Cameron know, all too well, when he heard that Boris had switched sides.
Your hatred of Boris blinds you to his electoral appeal, in certain areas of the electorate.
I do sense that this is right. I was walking through a tunnel the other evening and moving quickly because there was a bunch of 'lads' behind me - a bit rough sounding - and they were being raucous.
Heard the following exchange -
"Fucking Boris eh?"
"Yeah, love him. Fucking player inni."
Millions? Quite possibly. This country is not full of political sophisticates.
I think this forum has a bit of a collective blindspot as social grades A and B are massively over-represented. Conversely, I can't imagine there are many C2s or Ds who post on here.
This is why I believe many people are overestimating the LDs. The LDs will do very well with As and Bs but I think they will struggle with C2DEs
I think this board has always systematically over-estimated the LibDems in all GEs.
In 2015, and 2017, I had exactly the same discussion about the LibDems in Cambridge that I did this morning. They won't take Cambridge in 2019, just as they didn't in 2015 and 2017.
My guess is that they will lose most (if not all) of the seats of the switchers & they will lose their by-election gain of Brecon & Radnorshire.
They will take hardly any Labour seats, but some Tory seats look a gimme. My guess is they will end up in the range 25-30. An improvement, but not the sweeping arcs of orange that some posters gaily talk about.
rcs100 was a very accurate predictor of the LibDems last time. I'd trust his estimate. He's pretty bearish on their prospects again is my recollection.
I think the LDs will make it into the 20s. They may even make it into the high 20s.
But unless there's some breakthrough in the course of the campaign (which is entirely possible, so don't completely discount it), then they are likely to simply pick up 10-15 seats from the 12 they won last time.
(And for the purposes of discussion, I'm counting the MP for Eastbourne as a LibDem, even though he's an independent.)
I do sense that this is right. I was walking through a tunnel the other evening and moving quickly because there was a bunch of 'lads' behind me - a bit rough sounding - and they were being raucous. Heard the following exchange -
"Fucking Boris eh?"
"Yeah, love him. Fucking player inni."
Millions? Quite possibly. This country is not full of political sophisticates.
Funnily enough i've seen something similar.
My local gym has a sauna and steam room (used by all ages) and i've been sat there on a number of occasions when late-teens/early-20s have been discussing Boris favourably.
Not in a way that dissects his vision for the UK and how it relates to theirs (even I don't know the answer to that) but in a way that seems to celebrate his buffoonish-ness.
I think he somehow taps in to the younger elements enthusiam for anti-cool.
Of course, it doesn't mean a majority of the kids feel this way, or that they will turn out and vote for Boris but as an anecdotal comparison I haven't heard a single youngster talking positively about JC.
Maybe if I frequented gyms in other parts of the country I would hear a different story.
They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.
But, will there be debates?
On what basis would Swinson be allowed on? Surely not with just Jezza and Boris?
If she's in them it would have to be with the Greens, the SNP, Farage, the Welsh ones, and old uncle Tom Cobbley
Bozo will run away from it as will Corbyn. You can see the lame excuses piling up.
Completely OT. Just returned from the Biennale in Venice and it was on the whole pathetic. As you might expect most of the offerings concerned climate change and the environment. All well meaning and probably underfunded but if someone doesn't get hold of this movement while it's hot and give it direction it'll die a death. If ever there has been a need for marketing people to get involved and save something worthwhile before it disappears into tediousness now is the time.
I was there a couple of years ago and most of the art was disappointing. I was staying in Trieste for a couple of days and took the train to Venice for a few hours since I'd never visited before.
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer. Extraordinary.
You’re obsessed.
Dont you think its a strange thing for the PM to say and even stranger she appears to nod?
No.
Fair enough.
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer.
Definitely not at all unusual exchange.
The coalition nearly destroyed the Lib Dems. You’re crazy if you think they’ll go anywhere near that again.
You're very naive. The Lib Dems main aim is to get into power. Swinson sounds just like Clegg pre 2010. 100% she will do a deal and try and become Kingmaker with Tories or Labour.
Though I think any such attempt would involve considerably more conditions and circumspection than last time around. And neither Corbyn nor Johnson as king.
I can't conceive of any circumstances in which the LibDems go into coalition with the Tories. It would destroy their USP, alienate pretty much every new voter they've picked up, and their Brexit policy is such a polar opposite to the Tories (with a new batch of head-bangers coming in) that there isn't even a starting point to a negotiation.
Any situation where the Tories need a coalition is one where an alternative can be formed without them.
Maybe, but not for long.
Corbyn’s Labour, Swinson’s LDs and Sturgeon’s SNP don’t have reams in common.
There is a substantial chance that the next Parliament will be more chaotic than the last, with fewer experienced Parliamentarians to broker compromises.
"fewer experienced Parliamentarians"
Yes please
I suspect you would like supine ones instead? A rubber stamp parliament should appeal to the Leave voter!
I wouldn't suspect if I were you. You are generally very wide of the mark.
I'll be disappointed if the BXP doesn't try very hard in this election. I was hoping to get telephone canvassed by one of them so that I could turn to my wife and say 'There's a Leaver on the line".
lol. Did I say ALL OF BRITAIN will vote for Boris coz they like him?
No. But millions will. That's certain. The presence of Boris in the Leave campaign won it for Leave, as Cameron know, all too well, when he heard that Boris had switched sides.
Your hatred of Boris blinds you to his electoral appeal, in certain areas of the electorate.
I do sense that this is right. I was walking through a tunnel the other evening and moving quickly because there was a bunch of 'lads' behind me - a bit rough sounding - and they were being raucous.
Heard the following exchange -
"Fucking Boris eh?"
"Yeah, love him. Fucking player inni."
Millions? Quite possibly. This country is not full of political sophisticates.
I think this forum has a bit of a collective blindspot as social grades A and B are massively over-represented. Conversely, I can't imagine there are many C2s or Ds who post on here.
This is why I believe many people are overestimating the LDs. The LDs will do very well with As and Bs but I think they will struggle with C2DEs
I think this board has always systematically over-estimated the LibDems in all GEs.
In 2015, and 2017, I had exactly the same discussion about the LibDems in Cambridge that I did this morning. They won't take Cambridge in 2019, just as they didn't in 2015 and 2017.
My guess is that they will lose most (if not all) of the seats of the switchers & they will lose their by-election gain of Brecon & Radnorshire.
They will take hardly any Labour seats, but some Tory seats look a gimme. My guess is they will end up in the range 25-30. An improvement, but not the sweeping arcs of orange that some posters gaily talk about.
rcs100 was a very accurate predictor of the LibDems last time. I'd trust his estimate. He's pretty bearish on their prospects again is my recollection.
I think the LDs will make it into the 20s. They may even make it into the high 20s.
But unless there's some breakthrough in the course of the campaign (which is entirely possible, so don't completely discount it), then they are likely to simply pick up 10-15 seats from the 12 they won last time.
(And for the purposes of discussion, I'm counting the MP for Eastbourne as a LibDem, even though he's an independent.)
As of today, he is back as a Lib Dem (presumably so he can stand as one)
They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.
But, will there be debates?
On what basis would Swinson be allowed on? Surely not with just Jezza and Boris?
If she's in them it would have to be with the Greens, the SNP, Farage, the Welsh ones, and old uncle Tom Cobbley
Yeah Swinson is 2nd tier so it would be with Blackford/Sturgeon and then presumably Green, BXP and Plaid would fancy a bit too/
As an aside, I want to get Brexit done. While I am not the greatest fan of Boris's deal, it'll do.
But I am also loathe to vote for someone I believe to be fundamentally dishonest, and for whom process is an anathema. At some point, it's not merely a matter of "are they on my side", but it's also a question of whether I am prepared to be complicit in someone who is weakening our instutitions.
If this last Parliament has demonstrated anything it is that individual MPs do matter and are not all lobby fodder. You don't have to make your decision solely on the party policy, or the probity of the party leader, but can consider the merits of the candidates.
I take your point, but the way many Labour, even from the right of the party, swung in behind Corbyn post 2017 blunts it somewhat for me.
In fact, for this and a few other reasons, I've gone from a situation where my switching votes from my Labour MP to Lib Dem in 2017 (in my 7th GE the first time my vote had not gone towards successfully returning an incumbent) was a matter of regret, to a point where my MP is part of the reason to avoid voting Labour.
lol. Did I say ALL OF BRITAIN will vote for Boris coz they like him?
No. But millions will. That's certain. The presence of Boris in the Leave campaign won it for Leave, as Cameron know, all too well, when he heard that Boris had switched sides.
Your hatred of Boris blinds you to his electoral appeal, in certain areas of the electorate.
I do sense that this is right. I was walking through a tunnel the other evening and moving quickly because there was a bunch of 'lads' behind me - a bit rough sounding - and they were being raucous.
Heard the following exchange -
"Fucking Boris eh?"
"Yeah, love him. Fucking player inni."
Millions? Quite possibly. This country is not full of political sophisticates.
I think this forum has a bit of a collective blindspot as social grades A and B are massively over-represented. Conversely, I can't imagine there are many C2s or Ds who post on here.
This is why I believe many people are overestimating the LDs. The LDs will do very well with As and Bs but I think they will struggle with C2DEs
I think this board has always systematically over-estimated the LibDems in all GEs.
In 2015, and 2017, I had exactly the same discussion about the LibDems in Cambridge that I did this morning. They won't take Cambridge in 2019, just as they didn't in 2015 and 2017.
My guess is that they will lose most (if not all) of the seats of the switchers & they will lose their by-election gain of Brecon & Radnorshire.
They will take hardly any Labour seats, but some Tory seats look a gimme. My guess is they will end up in the range 25-30. An improvement, but not the sweeping arcs of orange that some posters gaily talk about.
rcs100 was a very accurate predictor of the LibDems last time. I'd trust his estimate. He's pretty bearish on their prospects again is my recollection.
I think the LDs will make it into the 20s. They may even make it into the high 20s.
But unless there's some breakthrough in the course of the campaign (which is entirely possible, so don't completely discount it), then they are likely to simply pick up 10-15 seats from the 12 they won last time.
(And for the purposes of discussion, I'm counting the MP for Eastbourne as a LibDem, even though he's an independent.)
They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.
But, will there be debates?
On what basis would Swinson be allowed on? Surely not with just Jezza and Boris?
If she's in them it would have to be with the Greens, the SNP, Farage, the Welsh ones, and old uncle Tom Cobbley
Given the Lib Dems are a very minor party it is hard to envisage them getting any invite to a debate,
Heh. Guido got hold of O'Mara's Twitter account, and is posting all the unflattering stories about him. https://twitter.com/jaredomaramp
Probably time to leave O'Mara alone now.
I was critical when he left his seat unrepresented, and would neither give up his salary nor make proper arrangements.
But it's also clear he has mental health problems, and the resignation issue has now been superceded by an election. He's also facing a criminal investigation that must run its course.
Continuing to jab has no purpose any more, and is cruel to a fragile individual.
I agree.
It is interesting to look at the attitudes of posters on this board to say Chris Davies, Jared O'Mara and Keith Vaz. Three bad boys.
It is clear to me that the baddest is Vaz. Prostitution and cocaine.
However, it is Davies and O'Mara who have the LibDems in a towering rage. The LibDems fulminate about their badness.
Yet, their offences seem minor to me. And O'Mara clearly needs help not censure.
I wonder why. It looks as the the really bad thing that Chris Davies and Jared O'Mara did was occupy LibDem target seats.
Sexual harrassment and abuse is worse in my eyes than either prostitution or drugs.
One has a victim, the other two does not.
You are seriously claiming the trade in illicit drugs and prostitution has no victims?
If prostitution is forced then that is like rape and a crime.
If prostitution is consensual then I couldn't care less about it and it is not as serious as sexual harrassment or abuse.
I think that in some cases, it can be hard to distinguish between forcible and voluntary prostitution.
That said, I think the "Nordic model" probably leaves prostitutes more, not less, vulnerable.
lol. Did I say ALL OF BRITAIN will vote for Boris coz they like him?
No. But millions will. That's certain. The presence of Boris in the Leave campaign won it for Leave, as Cameron know, all too well, when he heard that Boris had switched sides.
Your hatred of Boris blinds you to his electoral appeal, in certain areas of the electorate.
I do sense that this is right. I was walking through a tunnel the other evening and moving quickly because there was a bunch of 'lads' behind me - a bit rough sounding - and they were being raucous.
Heard the following exchange -
"Fucking Boris eh?"
"Yeah, love him. Fucking player inni."
Millions? Quite possibly. This country is not full of political sophisticates.
I think this forum has a bit of a collective blindspot as social grades A and B are massively over-represented. Conversely, I can't imagine there are many C2s or Ds who post on here.
This is why I believe many people are overestimating the LDs. The LDs will do very well with As and Bs but I think they will struggle with C2DEs
I think this board has always systematically over-estimated the LibDems in all GEs.
In 2015, and 2017, I had exactly the same discussion about the LibDems in Cambridge that I did this morning. They won't take Cambridge in 2019, just as they didn't in 2015 and 2017.
My guess is that they will lose most (if not all) of the switchers & they will lose their by-election gain of Brecon & Radnorshire.
They will take hardly any Labour seats, but some Tory seats look a gimme. My guess is they will end up in the range 25-30. An improvement, but not the sweeping arcs of orange that some posters gaily talk about.
rcs100 was a very accurate predictor of the LibDems last time. I'd trust his estimate. He's pretty bearish on their prospects again is my recollection.
Most of the people I know vote Lib Dem, both family and otherwise.
Get out more!
I am unsure how many of my Labour voting friends around the country are going to vote this time. The vibe I get from some is they won't bother at all.
Jeremy Corbyn: "Our NHS should be focused on making people better, not making a wealthy few richer" #PMQs
I know I'm not the target audience, but I feel like I've heard the same messages on the NHS my entire life and while things undoubtedly change, the nature of the messages being so unceasing means it feels like nothing ever changes with it.
So I just tune it out completely. Labour say tories have will ruin the NHS, Tories say no they wont and Labour messed it up, as constant as gravity in a very constant place.
There are similar unchanging lines for both sides on various issues and it must work, but it's just tiresome.
Views on the NHS are probably formed on the basis of first hand or closely associated experience, plus likelihood of future need. I think that probably leaves very few neutrals.
People's ability to evaluate the NHS objectively is highly questionable. I remember my father saying he had a great experience and "had had all the tests". How did he know? The basic problem with the NHS is that the consumer (yes folks that is what a patient is) is unable to compare with similar systems.
Completely OT. Just returned from the Biennale in Venice and it was on the whole pathetic. As you might expect most of the offerings concerned climate change and the environment. All well meaning and probably underfunded but if someone doesn't get hold of this movement while it's hot and give it direction it'll die a death. If ever there has been a need for marketing people to get involved and save something worthwhile before it disappears into tediousness now is the time.
I was there a couple of years ago and most of the art was disappointing. I was staying in Trieste for a couple of days and took the train to Venice for a few hours since I'd never visited before.
I like Trieste, although you can see how it suffered from being cut off from its hinterland.
They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.
But, will there be debates?
On what basis would Swinson be allowed on? Surely not with just Jezza and Boris?
If she's in them it would have to be with the Greens, the SNP, Farage, the Welsh ones, and old uncle Tom Cobbley
Given the Lib Dems are a very minor party it is hard to envisage them getting any invite to a debate,
You must be very nervous of them to be so obsessed!
It isn;t the working classes that capitalism hasn't worked for. Its the middle classes.
That why we have umpteen million 20 and 30something humanities grads earning thirty grand and paying seven hundred a month in rent or living at home with parents. With forty grand in student debt.
Those are Corbyn's core, surely.
This is a southern issue - no shortage of affordable housing right across the north of England.
A graduate earning 30k in Leeds or Manchester can afford a nice home, two graduates can get a large house with garden in which to raise a family.
I spent last week at home in Lancashire visiting family, and capitalism has worked out pretty well for the middle classes. I grew up there in the 70s/80s, and even though both my parents worked in professional jobs, there were no foreign holidays until I was 16, we only got a new car when my Dad was given a company car, and going to eat out was a rare treat.
Living standards are as high as they have ever been for the middle classes, but then so are expectations of what they/their children should be able to afford.
/four yorkshire man mode OFF/
The trouble is you then have to live up north with its vastly inferior climate
Bollox, far better lifestyle , bigger houses , more disposable income , southerners just need to have an excuse to justify living in little boxes and being stuck in traffic jams etc to feed their fragile ego's. All that money you can just go get sunshine , snow , whatever you like.
It isn;t the working classes that capitalism hasn't worked for. Its the middle classes.
That why we have umpteen million 20 and 30something humanities grads earning thirty grand and paying seven hundred a month in rent or living at home with parents. With forty grand in student debt.
Those are Corbyn's core, surely.
This is a southern issue - no shortage of affordable housing right across the north of England.
A graduate earning 30k in Leeds or Manchester can afford a nice home, two graduates can get a large house with garden in which to raise a family.
I spent last week at home in Lancashire visiting family, and capitalism has worked out pretty well for the middle classes. I grew up there in the 70s/80s, and even though both my parents worked in professional jobs, there were no foreign holidays until I was 16, we only got a new car when my Dad was given a company car, and going to eat out was a rare treat.
Living standards are as high as they have ever been for the middle classes, but then so are expectations of what they/their children should be able to afford.
/four yorkshire man mode OFF/
The trouble is you then have to live up north with its vastly inferior climate
The problem is about 99% of the population in Leeds and Manchester are not earning £30k / year in their mid 20's.
For all but a very select few there is a strong feeling that the current model simply does not work for vast swathes of the country.
The 'middle' class as many describe on here is in reality the very top echelon of society for the majority of the population would are no where close to what some seem to think they have.
The big issue of the election (at the outset, at least) is Leave v Remain, so media coverage of just Tory and Labour hardly does the debate justice. The best way for the media to deal with it is to cover the three, Tory/Leave, Labour, and Remain, and rotate the Remain slot amongst the LDs, SNP, Greens etc.
Completely OT. Just returned from the Biennale in Venice and it was on the whole pathetic. As you might expect most of the offerings concerned climate change and the environment. All well meaning and probably underfunded but if someone doesn't get hold of this movement while it's hot and give it direction it'll die a death. If ever there has been a need for marketing people to get involved and save something worthwhile before it disappears into tediousness now is the time.
I was there a couple of years ago and most of the art was disappointing. I was staying in Trieste for a couple of days and took the train to Venice for a few hours since I'd never visited before.
Frieze in London is much better than the Biennale. The Biennale is formal, curated and government sponsored, so the art is more formulaic, predictable and muted.
Frieze (and its sister fairs) is created by the galleries and artists themselves, so the art is much more diverse and carnivalesque.
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer. Extraordinary.
You’re obsessed.
Dont you think its a strange thing for the PM to say and even stranger she appears to nod?
No.
Fair enough.
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer.
Definitely not at all unusual exchange.
The coalition nearly destroyed the Lib Dems. You’re crazy if you think they’ll go anywhere near that again.
You're very naive. The Lib Dems main aim is to get into power. Swinson sounds just like Clegg pre 2010. 100% she will do a deal and try and become Kingmaker with Tories or Labour.
Though I think any such attempt would involve considerably more conditions and circumspection than last time around. And neither Corbyn nor Johnson as king.
I can't conceive of any circumstances in which the LibDems go into coalition with the Tories. It would destroy their USP, alienate pretty much every new voter they've picked up, and their Brexit policy is such a polar opposite to the Tories (with a new batch of head-bangers coming in) that there isn't even a starting point to a negotiation.
Any situation where the Tories need a coalition is one where an alternative can be formed without them.
Maybe, but not for long.
Corbyn’s Labour, Swinson’s LDs and Sturgeon’s SNP don’t have reams in common.
There is a substantial chance that the next Parliament will be more chaotic than the last, with fewer experienced Parliamentarians to broker compromises.
"fewer experienced Parliamentarians"
Yes please
I suspect you would like supine ones instead? A rubber stamp parliament should appeal to the Leave voter!
I wouldn't suspect if I were you. You are generally very wide of the mark.
Often I am sure, though not so often when it comes to summing up the extreme right.
They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.
But, will there be debates?
On what basis would Swinson be allowed on? Surely not with just Jezza and Boris?
If she's in them it would have to be with the Greens, the SNP, Farage, the Welsh ones, and old uncle Tom Cobbley
Given the Lib Dems are a very minor party it is hard to envisage them getting any invite to a debate,
You must be very nervous of them to be so obsessed!
Tbf they may be the only competition the SNP really has.
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer. Extraordinary.
You’re obsessed.
Dont you think its a strange thing for the PM to say and even stranger she appears to nod?
No.
Fair enough.
"She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"
She sat there nodding along to his answer.
Definitely not at all unusual exchange.
The coalition nearly destroyed the Lib Dems. You’re crazy if you think they’ll go anywhere near that again.
You're very naive. The Lib Dems main aim is to get into power. Swinson sounds just like Clegg pre 2010. 100% she will do a deal and try and become Kingmaker with Tories or Labour.
Though I think any such attempt would involve considerably more conditions and circumspection than last time around. And neither Corbyn nor Johnson as king.
I can't conceive of any circumstances in which the LibDems go into coalition with the Tories. It would destroy their USP, alienate pretty much every new voter they've picked up, and their Brexit policy is such a polar opposite to the Tories (with a new batch of head-bangers coming in) that there isn't even a starting point to a negotiation.
Any situation where the Tories need a coalition is one where an alternative can be formed without them.
Maybe, but not for long.
Corbyn’s Labour, Swinson’s LDs and Sturgeon’s SNP don’t have reams in common.
There is a substantial chance that the next Parliament will be more chaotic than the last, with fewer experienced Parliamentarians to broker compromises.
"fewer experienced Parliamentarians"
Yes please
I suspect you would like supine ones instead? A rubber stamp parliament should appeal to the Leave voter!
I wouldn't suspect if I were you. You are generally very wide of the mark.
Often I am sure, though not so often when it comes to summing up the extreme right.
It isn;t the working classes that capitalism hasn't worked for. Its the middle classes.
That why we have umpteen million 20 and 30something humanities grads earning thirty grand and paying seven hundred a month in rent or living at home with parents. With forty grand in student debt.
Those are Corbyn's core, surely.
This is a southern issue - no shortage of affordable housing right across the north of England.
A graduate earning 30k in Leeds or Manchester can afford a nice home, two graduates can get a large house with garden in which to raise a family.
I spent last week at home in Lancashire visiting family, and capitalism has worked out pretty well for the middle classes. I grew up there in the 70s/80s, and even though both my parents worked in professional jobs, there were no foreign holidays until I was 16, we only got a new car when my Dad was given a company car, and going to eat out was a rare treat.
Living standards are as high as they have ever been for the middle classes, but then so are expectations of what they/their children should be able to afford.
/four yorkshire man mode OFF/
The trouble is you then have to live up north with its vastly inferior climate
Bollox, far better lifestyle , bigger houses , more disposable income , southerners just need to have an excuse to justify living in little boxes and being stuck in traffic jams etc to feed their fragile ego's. All that money you can just go get sunshine , snow , whatever you like.
If Boris has learned ANYTHING (big if), he will jump at the chance to debate Jezza one on one.
I mean today his performance was woeful but give him some coaching and a couple of volumes from Loeb's Classical Library to revise and he might do better.
But being frit or arguing with the format is something he CANNOT do. Because this time it won't be different.
Completely OT. Just returned from the Biennale in Venice and it was on the whole pathetic. As you might expect most of the offerings concerned climate change and the environment. All well meaning and probably underfunded but if someone doesn't get hold of this movement while it's hot and give it direction it'll die a death. If ever there has been a need for marketing people to get involved and save something worthwhile before it disappears into tediousness now is the time.
Are you saying modern art, the Biennale, Venice, the climate emergency campaign, or your personal lifestyle is "pathetic"? Or all of them? It isn't clear.
All the participating countries have a pavilion. The UK 'show' was chosen by the arts council. It was well attended but almost content free. The choices were up to the participating countries. Most were pitifully uninvolving. The Venezualan one was more interesting than the one from the UK. A waste of a large and enthusiastic audience
They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.
But, will there be debates?
On what basis would Swinson be allowed on? Surely not with just Jezza and Boris?
If she's in them it would have to be with the Greens, the SNP, Farage, the Welsh ones, and old uncle Tom Cobbley
Yeah Swinson is 2nd tier so it would be with Blackford/Sturgeon and then presumably Green, BXP and Plaid would fancy a bit too/
Sturgeon is not at Westminster you stupid turnip. Only other major player is Blackford who leads the 3rd largest party ( with 3 x what LD's have).
The big issue of the election (at the outset, at least) is Leave v Remain, so media coverage of just Tory and Labour hardly does the debate justice. The best way for the media to deal with it is to cover the three, Tory/Leave, Labour, and Remain, and rotate the Remain slot amongst the LDs, SNP, Greens etc.
I don't think it will work like that though. You could argue previous elections were almost single issue but I imagine the broadcasters are confined to the same rules and that means one representative from the major parties. This is obviously going to lead to rather mixed messages from Labour.
Completely OT. Just returned from the Biennale in Venice and it was on the whole pathetic. As you might expect most of the offerings concerned climate change and the environment. All well meaning and probably underfunded but if someone doesn't get hold of this movement while it's hot and give it direction it'll die a death. If ever there has been a need for marketing people to get involved and save something worthwhile before it disappears into tediousness now is the time.
Are you saying modern art, the Biennale, Venice, the climate emergency campaign, or your personal lifestyle is "pathetic"? Or all of them? It isn't clear.
All the participating countries have a pavilion. The UK 'show' was chosen by the arts council. It was well attended but almost content free. The choices were up to the participating countries. Most were pitifully uninvolving. The Venezualan one was more interesting than the one from the UK. A waste of a large and enthusiastic audience
Yes, agreed. See my post below. The problem with the Biennale is the involvement of politicians and quangos like the Arts Council, it guarantees sterile, state-approved art.
If you want fun and anarchy in your art, try the fairs, like Frieze London. They are brilliant.
They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.
But, will there be debates?
On what basis would Swinson be allowed on? Surely not with just Jezza and Boris?
If she's in them it would have to be with the Greens, the SNP, Farage, the Welsh ones, and old uncle Tom Cobbley
Given the Lib Dems are a very minor party it is hard to envisage them getting any invite to a debate,
You must be very nervous of them to be so obsessed!
You mean if someone constantly berates a party and its supporters on here that they're very nervous of them? I'll keep that in mind for future reference.
They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.
But, will there be debates?
On what basis would Swinson be allowed on? Surely not with just Jezza and Boris?
If she's in them it would have to be with the Greens, the SNP, Farage, the Welsh ones, and old uncle Tom Cobbley
Given the Lib Dems are a very minor party it is hard to envisage them getting any invite to a debate,
You must be very nervous of them to be so obsessed!
They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.
But, will there be debates?
On what basis would Swinson be allowed on? Surely not with just Jezza and Boris?
If she's in them it would have to be with the Greens, the SNP, Farage, the Welsh ones, and old uncle Tom Cobbley
Yeah Swinson is 2nd tier so it would be with Blackford/Sturgeon and then presumably Green, BXP and Plaid would fancy a bit too/
Sturgeon is not at Westminster you stupid turnip. Only other major player is Blackford who leads the 3rd largest party ( with 3 x what LD's have).
I'm well aware of that but Blackford is so awful they might want to substitute her in.
These are potentially very positive numbers for the government. Though I accept the concept of forced could have both a positive or negative meaning.
Excellent - gets all the "Brenda from Bristol" BS out of the way. Anyone with eyes can see that Parliament had reached an absolute impasse.
The amount of 'straight up and honest' Labour leavers who'd have not indulged in shenanigans on the 3rd reading was probably Flint, Barron, and err that's about it with Mann going upstairs. You could probably add Campbell and Fitzpatrick and Hoey - but after that you're starting to rely on the Letwins (On the other side) and the Nandys not to indulge in chicanery. It'd have been amended out of existence.
They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.
But, will there be debates?
On what basis would Swinson be allowed on? Surely not with just Jezza and Boris?
If she's in them it would have to be with the Greens, the SNP, Farage, the Welsh ones, and old uncle Tom Cobbley
Given the Lib Dems are a very minor party it is hard to envisage them getting any invite to a debate,
You must be very nervous of them to be so obsessed!
LOL, you jest of course.
Malc never passes up an opportunity to remind us how irrelevant the Lib Dems are.
Heh. Guido got hold of O'Mara's Twitter account, and is posting all the unflattering stories about him. https://twitter.com/jaredomaramp
Probably time to leave O'Mara alone now.
I was critical when he left his seat unrepresented, and would neither give up his salary nor make proper arrangements.
But it's also clear he has mental health problems, and the resignation issue has now been superceded by an election. He's also facing a criminal investigation that must run its course.
Continuing to jab has no purpose any more, and is cruel to a fragile individual.
I agree.
It is interesting to look at the attitudes of posters on this board to say Chris Davies, Jared O'Mara and Keith Vaz. Three bad boys.
It is clear to me that the baddest is Vaz. Prostitution and cocaine.
However, it is Davies and O'Mara who have the LibDems in a towering rage. The LibDems fulminate about their badness.
Yet, their offences seem minor to me. And O'Mara clearly needs help not censure.
I wonder why. It looks as the the really bad thing that Chris Davies and Jared O'Mara did was occupy LibDem target seats.
Sexual harrassment and abuse is worse in my eyes than either prostitution or drugs.
One has a victim, the other two does not.
You are seriously claiming the trade in illicit drugs and prostitution has no victims?
If prostitution is forced then that is like rape and a crime.
If prostitution is consensual then I couldn't care less about it and it is not as serious as sexual harrassment or abuse.
I think that in some cases, it can be hard to distinguish between forcible and voluntary prostitution.
That said, I think the "Nordic model" probably leaves prostitutes more, not less, vulnerable.
The big issue of the election (at the outset, at least) is Leave v Remain, so media coverage of just Tory and Labour hardly does the debate justice. The best way for the media to deal with it is to cover the three, Tory/Leave, Labour, and Remain, and rotate the Remain slot amongst the LDs, SNP, Greens etc.
I'm having trouble following that. Did you mean to say "Tory/Leave, Labour/Don't Know, and Remain"?
.Amber is a big loss to the Conservatives. As are the others tbf.
Yes, absolutely. The worst aspect in policy terms is that she was beginning to get on top of the various problems with Universal Credit, and I fear all that progress has been thrown away.
Basically all the best senior figures have gone since 2015 or are going now: David Cameron, George Osborne, Phil Hammond, Ken Clarke, David Gauke, Amber Rudd, Ruth Davidson, Rory Stewart. It's arguably even worse than the equivalent clear out of talent in the Labour Party.
Completely OT. Just returned from the Biennale in Venice and it was on the whole pathetic. As you might expect most of the offerings concerned climate change and the environment. All well meaning and probably underfunded but if someone doesn't get hold of this movement while it's hot and give it direction it'll die a death. If ever there has been a need for marketing people to get involved and save something worthwhile before it disappears into tediousness now is the time.
Are you saying modern art, the Biennale, Venice, the climate emergency campaign, or your personal lifestyle is "pathetic"? Or all of them? It isn't clear.
All the participating countries have a pavilion. The UK 'show' was chosen by the arts council. It was well attended but almost content free. The choices were up to the participating countries. Most were pitifully uninvolving. The Venezualan one was more interesting than the one from the UK. A waste of a large and enthusiastic audience
You're a discerning arty type, Rog - but perhaps it all went over your head.
They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.
But, will there be debates?
On what basis would Swinson be allowed on? Surely not with just Jezza and Boris?
If she's in them it would have to be with the Greens, the SNP, Farage, the Welsh ones, and old uncle Tom Cobbley
Yeah Swinson is 2nd tier so it would be with Blackford/Sturgeon and then presumably Green, BXP and Plaid would fancy a bit too/
Sturgeon is not at Westminster you stupid turnip. Only other major player is Blackford who leads the 3rd largest party ( with 3 x what LD's have).
I'm well aware of that but Blackford is so awful they might want to substitute her in.
Sturgeon was in the last debates wasn't she? Despite not being a candidate
Comments
Does Boris have a specific woman problem? Some polls say yes, some pollsters think he does not.
"“There’s just not much evidence to suggest that women feel differently from men about him,” says Deborah Mattinson, CEO of Britain Thinks, which will next week publish the findings of focus groups conducted with women in Reading and Liverpool. “The big divide is age – older people like him more than younger ones, and leavers like him more than remainers.”
"Both sexes question his integrity, she says, but find him charismatic; focus groups generally shrug off the breakdown of his marriage to wife Marina or his new girlfriend Carrie Symonds’ move into No 10. “They’ll say: ‘Look, this is 2019, people don’t necessarily live happily ever.’”"
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2019/sep/05/does-boris-johnsons-government-have-a-women-problem
My point is not gender anyway, it is that Yes Boris is disliked by many, but he is actively LIKED by many, as well. He makes them laugh, he cheers them up (like my Mum) and in this grey depressing winter of Brexit discontent, that might be a clincher.
This is why I believe many people are overestimating the LDs. The LDs will do very well with As and Bs but I think they will struggle with C2DEs
https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/b7d916cb-f0bd-4eb0-8b67-b63f3a8ed349
I'm assuming your view is the passing of so much decision-making and accountability from Westminster to Brussels has debilitated the political process so much no party needs to stand for anything as within the EU we are operating within a clearly restrained environment.
While I accept the notion of the political process being unfit for purpose, what replaces it? How do we design something that works for the 21st century with all the technological advances that come with that? I'm a big supporter of devolution and empowering local communities but how does that operate?
So I just tune it out completely. Labour say tories have will ruin the NHS, Tories say no they wont and Labour messed it up, as constant as gravity in a very constant place.
There are similar unchanging lines for both sides on various issues and it must work, but it's just tiresome.
I therefore think attitudes towards him, from Remainers, are much more emotive, and subconscious, than they realise.
Reflexively, they hate him, they try to work out why they hate him, then they decide it is because of his lying, his hair, his womanizing, his bumbling persona, his fiscal profligacy, his untucked shirts, and so on.
It's not. It's because he is Brigadier Brexit, and deep down they can never forgive his role in the war.
An aggressive BXP campaign would be the ultimate indicator that Farage is more bothered about getting his gurning visage on the box moaning than delivering Brexit.
"That Boris, he's stirred things up alright", he said chuckling approvingly to himself.
(How many anecdotes do we need before we get a meaningful sample?)
A multi-leader debate gets Boris the role of being the only person present in favour of a deal, which he’ll go on about getting against the odds. Anything one on one and he’s trading NHS stats with Corbyn.
She wanted to damage the party and tried to blackmail and threaten the PM
From a purely disciplinary perspective it’s right to make an example of her
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcJ-mi9dvAQ
And many who view him in the same light as your mother will take the view that at least he's *our* disgusting, lying, sack of shit.
To extrapolate from another tiny sample, my parents in law, who voted for Blair but then for Cameron are both apalled by Johnson. They voted remain (without great enthusiasm) but both think we should leave given the referendum result - they voted for May, without enthusiasm but as a better option than Corbyn. They're also apalled by Corbyn and their referendum position rules out LD, I guess (I'll have to ask them). From recent conversations I think it's possible they won't vote, although they've always done so in the past. It seems that the polarisation should drive a high turnout in this election, but I do wonder. Those in the centre who think Brexit has to happen given the referendum but are not enthusiastic for it and want a soft Brexit don't really have anyone to vote for - Con not soft Brexit and Johnson divisive, Corbyn not centrist, LDs strongly anti-Brexit. If voter turnout is depressed, who knows what might happen.
Easington, Washington, Middlesbrough, Barnsley East, Barnsley Central, Hull north etc..
The debates worked best in 2010. Since then they've gone to mush in the last two elections and haven't really moved any needles.
In 2015, and 2017, I had exactly the same discussion about the LibDems in Cambridge that I did this morning. They won't take Cambridge in 2019, just as they didn't in 2015 and 2017.
My guess is that they will lose most (if not all) of the seats of the switchers & they will lose their by-election gain of Brecon & Radnorshire.
They will take hardly any Labour seats, but some Tory seats look a gimme. My guess is they will end up in the range 25-30. An improvement, but not the sweeping arcs of orange that some posters gaily talk about.
rcs100 was a very accurate predictor of the LibDems last time. I'd trust his estimate. He's pretty bearish on their prospects again is my recollection.
She is shrewd and tough and PM material.
If prostitution is consensual then I couldn't care less about it and it is not as serious as sexual harrassment or abuse.
Yes please
That's why he walked away from UKIP to avoid the squeeze at GE2017. That's why the talk of a pact now. He's in search of an exit strategy.
If she's in them it would have to be with the Greens, the SNP, Farage, the Welsh ones, and old uncle Tom Cobbley
Consensual drugs and prostitution should be frowned upon like tobacco but legal. Abusing and harassing peope is worse.
For Leavers this election looks very like a last chance. For the Brexit party to stand in selected Labour leave seats that the Tories cannot win is the only sane policy.
No reason to think sanity will prevail of course. Remainers would and will be crazy to put up two Remain candidates - Lab and LD - where doing so can let in the Tory. But they will.
But unless there's some breakthrough in the course of the campaign (which is entirely possible, so don't completely discount it), then they are likely to simply pick up 10-15 seats from the 12 they won last time.
(And for the purposes of discussion, I'm counting the MP for Eastbourne as a LibDem, even though he's an independent.)
My local gym has a sauna and steam room (used by all ages) and i've been sat there on a number of occasions when late-teens/early-20s have been discussing Boris favourably.
Not in a way that dissects his vision for the UK and how it relates to theirs (even I don't know the answer to that) but in a way that seems to celebrate his buffoonish-ness.
I think he somehow taps in to the younger elements enthusiam for anti-cool.
Of course, it doesn't mean a majority of the kids feel this way, or that they will turn out and vote for Boris but as an anecdotal comparison I haven't heard a single youngster talking positively about JC.
Maybe if I frequented gyms in other parts of the country I would hear a different story.
In fact, for this and a few other reasons, I've gone from a situation where my switching votes from my Labour MP to Lib Dem in 2017 (in my 7th GE the first time my vote had not gone towards successfully returning an incumbent) was a matter of regret, to a point where my MP is part of the reason to avoid voting Labour.
That said, I think the "Nordic model" probably leaves prostitutes more, not less, vulnerable.
These are potentially very positive numbers for the government. Though I accept the concept of forced could have both a positive or negative meaning.
I am unsure how many of my Labour voting friends around the country are going to vote this time. The vibe I get from some is they won't bother at all.
and being stuck in traffic jams etc to feed their fragile ego's. All that money you can just go get sunshine , snow , whatever you like.
For all but a very select few there is a strong feeling that the current model simply does not work for vast swathes of the country.
The 'middle' class as many describe on here is in reality the very top echelon of society for the majority of the population would are no where close to what some seem to think they have.
Frieze (and its sister fairs) is created by the galleries and artists themselves, so the art is much more diverse and carnivalesque.
Not that Boris is not a details man, obvs, but she said he offered her the change to stand.
Amber is a big loss to the Conservatives. As are the others tbf.
I mean today his performance was woeful but give him some coaching and a couple of volumes from Loeb's Classical Library to revise and he might do better.
But being frit or arguing with the format is something he CANNOT do. Because this time it won't be different.
If you want fun and anarchy in your art, try the fairs, like Frieze London. They are brilliant.
It'd have been amended out of existence.
Basically all the best senior figures have gone since 2015 or are going now: David Cameron, George Osborne, Phil Hammond, Ken Clarke, David Gauke, Amber Rudd, Ruth Davidson, Rory Stewart. It's arguably even worse than the equivalent clear out of talent in the Labour Party.