Just saw an interview with Corbyn and he came across pretty well: confident, relaxed, not arrogant, calm, reasonable in tone.
This is the problem for the Tories: because Corbyn never expected to be in this position in a million years, until 2015, the whole situation of him being leader is like a bonus for him and his supporters. So they don't appear worried at all. And that actually comes across quite well to voters.
And so the Tories need to expose the fact that under that calm facade lurks an extremist who will impose crippling taxes, confiscate hundreds of billions in private property, and open the borders to all and sundry.
It's not hard, FFS - the Tories need to take Labour policies and demolish them with the thoroughness that they so richly deserve.
But Brexit especially a No Deal is built on sand. Brexiteers don't seem to understand that you cannot implement a shock to the economy as they suggest and not leave yourself open to great scepticism and indifference to Tory project fear of Corbyn....
Just saw an interview with Corbyn and he came across pretty well: confident, relaxed, not arrogant, calm, reasonable in tone.
This is the problem for the Tories: because Corbyn never expected to be in this position in a million years, until 2015, the whole situation of him being leader is like a bonus for him and his supporters. So they don't appear worried at all. And that actually comes across quite well to voters.
And so the Tories need to expose the fact that under that calm facade lurks an extremist who will impose crippling taxes, confiscate hundreds of billions in private property, and open the borders to all and sundry.
It's not hard, FFS - the Tories need to take Labour policies and demolish them with the thoroughness that they so richly deserve.
Corbyn got a free ride in 2017, Mays team never took him on or put him under pressure, he was allowed to make his running, whilst May was on the back foot from her own errors.
Team Boris is going to hit Corbyn with everything they have got, think what Cummings did to Cameron in 2016 and multiply it. They will start next week and within 10 days as the polls do not improve for Labour, the trots are going to be in disarray and fighting, which is when Corbyn will start losing his temper.
Any chance the BBC could visit places that voted Remain who hate the Tories or will we be subjected to 5 weeks of voters from just Leave areas who think Bozo is the next Messiah .
Are we going to be subjected to 5 weeks of idiots referring to the PM as "Bozo"?
Works for me, it means I can keep using Jezza or Jezziah.
viewcode said: "I am not @isam and cannot speak for him, but I think it was value betting. 'Value" is when the probability implied by the odds grossly mismatch what the punter believes to be the actual probability of the event. The bet is purchased on the assumption that the probability will eventually converge, enabling the bet to be traded out of at a profit. This is how professional gamblers make a profit and I think it's the only strategy that actually works.
If you knew that already please accept my apologies, but it was a teaching moment and I thought other readers may appreciate the lesson."
Yes, I did know that already - I was teasing isam.
But seriously I`m reluctant to trade out of bets on the thinking that you are paying the bookie`s turn twice. Betfair heavily promotes its cashout facility as it is very lucrative.
Are we about to see the second ever majority government with just 35% of the vote? If it ends up something like Con 35, Lab 26, LD 18, BREX 10
Yes, Tony Blair won a very comfortable 66 seat majority in 2005 with 35%.
The BBC did a vox pop at lunchtime with three "labour voters" oop North.. Two said they were going to vote Tory, one said he kind of liked Boris, the second said he just wanted Brexit done so would vote Tory, the third was dyed in the wool Labour voter who said he would vote Labour come what may, (not Mrs May I hasten to add). I think they interviewed them in Workington?
I think it was Middlesborough. I caught the end of it.
Oh well that's it then Corbyn may as well give up now.
What's the sampling error on a survey of 3?
You better hope it is massive - or Labour has just lost 2/3 of its voters!
(Out of interest, I remember a similar vox pop in 2017 from Mansfield - Labour to Tory. Being a North Notts lad, I could never believe Mansfield would go Tory in my lifetime....shows what I know.)
Just saw an interview with Corbyn and he came across pretty well: confident, relaxed, not arrogant, calm, reasonable in tone.
This is the problem for the Tories: because Corbyn never expected to be in this position in a million years, until 2015, the whole situation of him being leader is like a bonus for him and his supporters. So they don't appear worried at all. And that actually comes across quite well to voters.
And so the Tories need to expose the fact that under that calm facade lurks an extremist who will impose crippling taxes, confiscate hundreds of billions in private property, and open the borders to all and sundry.
It's not hard, FFS - the Tories need to take Labour policies and demolish them with the thoroughness that they so richly deserve.
But Brexit especially a No Deal is built on sand. Brexiteers don't seem to understand that you cannot fundamentally implement a shock to the as they suggest and not leave yourself open to great scepticism and indifference to Tory project fear of Corbyn....
One fairly telling point was today's NIESR estimate of a £70bn cost of a Boris Brexit, alongside the government declining to publish any estimate at all.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50219036 Chancellor Sajid Javid has refused to recalculate Treasury assessments on the impact of the government's Brexit deal, saying it is "self-evidently in our economic interest"....
It's funny: in Trieste you're almost welcomed as a guest of honour by the locals because they don't have many tourists but like to think of themselves as an important international city, and so therefore it's one of those rare places where they're actually pleased to see visitors. In Venice it's obviously the complete opposite — tourists get treated like sh*t because of course there are too many of them by a factor of about a million. And it's only a relatively short train journey between the two places.
I’ve never been to Venice and have precious little desire to go. I hear very similar stories about how people didn’t enjoy it.
I’m interested in Trieste for all sorts of historical and cultural reasons.
Venice is absolutely fantastic, magical. Yes, the crowds are appalling, but you don't have to go very far away from St Mark's Square to get away from them.
Hmm. I’ve heard contradictory things.
If I did go I’d do it in a day trip out-of-season.
Not too fussed.
No, don't go on a day trip. What you need to do is find a really nice small expensive hotel slightly away from the crowds, accessible by water (which many are), and arrive at night by boat from the airport. The sight of the illuminated churches and palaces of Venice floating in the water is absolutely magical. Then spend a couple of days just wandering around: it is spectacular, even the bits the tourists don't much visit.
It does need careful planning though. For example, you can do a private tour of the Doges' Palace, which is well worth it. And none of this is cheap, of course.
Mr. B, it'd seem odd for Honda to leave after they struggled for so long and now have an engine comparable to the others.
Changing corporate priorities. Honda's plans are for all electric by 2022; it's not clear how F1 fits into that strategy, and it is enormously expensive marketing with no certain return.
Surely F1 will go electric soon?
Perhaps, but such a development threatens to remove everything that makes it distinctive.
Why? What makes it distinctive is fast cars, not burning oil.
Nah, its the sound of neeeeeeeeeeeeowwwwwww.
That's the sound of the vehicles going fast and the doppler effect though isn't? Not the sound of an internal combustion engine?
If you think that Corbyn in any way offers any change on past ways of doing things, with respect it is you who have not paid close enough attention to his record.
Of course, that might still be true of enough Labour voters to win him the election.
Many years ago I wrote a blogpost discussing what Obama’s accession to office would mean. I concluded that nothing meaningful would change. I stand by that assessment. He had one fairly minor win over healthcare which has caused almost as many problems as it solved. For the rest, systemic inertia basically did for him.
And Obama was more intelligent, more energetic, more pragmatic and much more of an outsider than Jeremy Corbyn. Corbyn will not change the system except to tilt it more towards his mates. He is a poor man’s Donald Trump.
It's funny: in Trieste you're almost welcomed as a guest of honour by the locals because they don't have many tourists but like to think of themselves as an important international city, and so therefore it's one of those rare places where they're actually pleased to see visitors. In Venice it's obviously the complete opposite — tourists get treated like sh*t because of course there are too many of them by a factor of about a million. And it's only a relatively short train journey between the two places.
I’ve never been to Venice and have precious little desire to go. I hear very similar stories about how people didn’t enjoy it.
I’m interested in Trieste for all sorts of historical and cultural reasons.
Trieste is great, James Joyce made a fine choice.
But no man should live an entire life without seeing Venice. Go in the late autumn or late winter (avoid Christmas or carnival) when it is at its loneliest, rainiest and most evocatively beautiful. A phantom city, in the dying rain, floating on the dark seas of nothing. Sublime.
I went there in high summer. Shorts, t-shirt. The local mozzies did feast on my flesh. I had so many swellings I looked deformed. Most oft the conversations were mouthed thru a mushy voice with swollen lips and chin. It was the best Elephant Man impersonation I've ever done. It would be nice to report I recited the Lord's Prayer but in reality I screamed "getch me outs off thiss vuckingg sheethole you dorkssss". I assume it was nice for other people...
It’s very possible we get both a second EU referendum and a second independence referendum next year.
Yup. Kill me now.
Seconded.
I know its partly my fault, but it'll be hell.
Act of Parliament:
No referendums except on self-determination issues - and on them, one every 20 years max.
EU membership is not a self-determination issue.
10 years imprisonment for proposing referendum outside those parameters.
Death penalty for smarmy wideboys who abuse their constitutional position with promises that "we will enact what you decide" and the like to try to turn advisory results into mandatory ones.
Sorted.
And hopefully you will be first against the wall when the inevitable revolution comes.
For questioning a centuries old tradition dating back to 1975?
No, just for being a smarmy wideboy as per your own penalty.
On the day I was allowed back on to PB, around March, I followed in a tip to back him as next PM at a single figure price
Ah yes, there has been so much talk of interim PMs and leaders of GNUs in the past six months.
All total bollocks, as some of the more savvy amongst us said.
People keen to show they are good out deducing complicated logic rather than giving good betting advice I think
The Speaker to become PM was my favourite piece of total bollocks!
To be fair that was tipped at about 200/1 rather than 9/1. There's a difference!
Still money "spaffed up a wall" at 20,000/1.
No money was spaffed, you do understand how a bet struck at 500/1 then trades at 16/1 can be profitable.
Even if it wasn’t traded very occasionally such bets do come in and then they are very profitable.
It’s the same way venture capitalists (if they’re doing it right) invest in 10 possible successful start-ups.
They just need one to come in to make a lot of money, but they don’t necessarily know which. So, they do their research and analysis and invest according to their best assessment of the value and the prospects and expect nine to be losers.
We...have seen almost all of our important services - police, nurses, doctors and the fire service alienated by bad decisions and yet more red tape.
I’m curious, Richard. Why did you leave teachers off that list? In terms of bad decisions, more red tape and pay deals we get rawer deals than any of those.
Is it because two of your heroes were behind the disasters in education, whereas you dislike the people in charge of medicine? Or do you have some special loathing for teachers rather than say, doctors?
Farage has been invisible so far. Surely his plane has landed by now.
Please god he doesn't turn up as a new tory under the headbangers... talking of which, I don't suppose Bill Cash is standing down is he?
I've just had an email from Nigel
Dear Brexiteer We have a big challenge on our hands to clear out the Remainer Parliament and win a majority for Brexit. Our hard-working team need all the help they can get. We have plans for campaigns across the mainstream and social media, along with billboards, leaflets, newspapers — and TV broadcasts like the recent one that was seen by millions.
We have all waited far too long for the Brexit we were promised. Let’s not settle for anything less now. Please give what you can to help us to fight the Brexit General Election and change politics for good.
Thank you for your continuing support. There will be no real Brexit without us. And we cannot do it without you.
I will once again note with regret I did not back Corbyn for Next Lab Leader at 990 with 5 pounds available on Betfair when I saw on here that someone said he was running.
It's funny: in Trieste you're almost welcomed as a guest of honour by the locals because they don't have many tourists but like to think of themselves as an important international city, and so therefore it's one of those rare places where they're actually pleased to see visitors. In Venice it's obviously the complete opposite — tourists get treated like sh*t because of course there are too many of them by a factor of about a million. And it's only a relatively short train journey between the two places.
Yes. There are lots of places a short train ride from Venice that are a joy to visit, such as Treviso or Padua.
I passed through Padua when I was in Barcelona last week. "What are you on about, Sunil?" I hear you ask!
Simples:
Padua is a station on Barcelona Metro line L7, from the city centre to Avenue of Tibidabo (for connections to the hill-top church).
Sunil, CON gain Ilford North?
Wes has a c. 9000 majority. Maybe not, I'm afraid!
Farage has been invisible so far. Surely his plane has landed by now.
Please god he doesn't turn up as a new tory under the headbangers... talking of which, I don't suppose Bill Cash is standing down is he?
I've just had an email from Nigel
Dear Brexiteer We have a big challenge on our hands to clear out the Remainer Parliament and win a majority for Brexit. Our hard-working team need all the help they can get. We have plans for campaigns across the mainstream and social media, along with billboards, leaflets, newspapers — and TV broadcasts like the recent one that was seen by millions.
We have all waited far too long for the Brexit we were promised. Let’s not settle for anything less now. Please give what you can to help us to fight the Brexit General Election and change politics for good.
Thank you for your continuing support. There will be no real Brexit without us. And we cannot do it without you.
Yours Nigel
There was a young man named Farage Who one day got locked in his garage He campaigned so hard But let down his guard And fell to an electoral barrage
It isn;t the working classes that capitalism hasn't worked for. Its the middle classes.
That why we have umpteen million 20 and 30something humanities grads earning thirty grand and paying seven hundred a month in rent or living at home with parents. With forty grand in student debt.
Those are Corbyn's core, surely.
This is a southern issue - no shortage of affordable housing right across the north of England.
A graduate earning 30k in Leeds or Manchester can afford a nice home, two graduates can get a large house with garden in which to raise a family.
I spent last week at home in Lancashire visiting family, and capitalism has worked out pretty well for the middle classes. I grew up there in the 70s/80s, and even though both my parents worked in professional jobs, there were no foreign holidays until I was 16, we only got a new car when my Dad was given a company car, and going to eat out was a rare treat.
Living standards are as high as they have ever been for the middle classes, but then so are expectations of what they/their children should be able to afford.
/four yorkshire man mode OFF/
The trouble is you then have to live up north with its vastly inferior climate
Bollox, far better lifestyle , bigger houses , more disposable income , southerners just need to have an excuse to justify living in little boxes and being stuck in traffic jams etc to feed their fragile ego's. All that money you can just go get sunshine , snow , whatever you like.
Bigger houses in Scotland? Another SNP myth.
we have more disposable income to buy bigger houses that are significantly cheaper than down south. It is no myth.
They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.
But, will there be debates?
On what basis would Swinson be allowed on? Surely not with just Jezza and Boris?
If she's in them it would have to be with the Greens, the SNP, Farage, the Welsh ones, and old uncle Tom Cobbley
Given the Lib Dems are a very minor party it is hard to envisage them getting any invite to a debate,
You must be very nervous of them to be so obsessed!
Oh god we're back to the SNP are running scared of Jim Murphy shite again.
The SNP only make gains against the Conservatives on the back of a Lib Dem surge in Scotland.
It isn't meant to be analysis. I don't have that much knowledge of the Scottish political scene, other than the rather sad fact that the dominant party has the unpleasant word "nationalist" in it! It was merely an observation that Malcolm seems to get very stirred up (in his usually inarticulate way) whenever the LDs are mentioned 🤣🤣
The dominant party does not have the word "nationalist" in it.
You really must stop claiming every ten minutes that other posters are less intelligent and less well-informed than you are.
You really stop talking shite and must try harder to have an opinion on things and stop being a smart arsed troll. I mean what do you actually believe in on matters of politics? I have seen quite a number of your empty vessel posts, but I have no idea at all on where you stand on anything. I will knock people's views when I see them if I think it deserves it, guilty as charged (who doesn't on here) but you just make rude comments about people rather than their viewpoint. Pathetic. What a sad little specimen you are.
Go back over your own posts, and mine, for the past 48 hours and count which of us has called other people "idiot" and the like more times (and "pigmy" and "canon fodder", which I particularly enjoyed. Consult a dictionary to see why). Consider why anyone would pay any attention to the utterances on uk politics of someone who doesn't know what SNP stands for. And ffs stop saying "swiveleyed."
He is a real turnip and obsessive, always stalking someone.
Anything by Jonathan Glazer is worth watching though only the Guardian could claim 'Under the Skin' is the fourth best film of all time! I'd rate his Guinness commercial on a par with it.
I'm sure many have never seen "Under the Skin". It is a weird, disturbing, oddball of a movie that all should see.
.....and Scarlett Johansson's naked body isn't too off putting
could have been anybody's, it is rare to actually be the lead in the film. They show their mush and they have doubles for every other bit.
1. BoJo will win a large majority (50+) - the WWC vote will move further to the Tories but the Labour public sector / professional middle class vote will split because of Brexit / anti-semitism. That will let the Tories win seats they should not; 2. There will be some spectacular Lib Dem gains in some of the urban, professional seats that Labour hold in London and the big cities as these voters desert Labour. However, in Remain but wealthy Tory seats in the South, fears over Corbyn and the impact on their wealth will persuade many to stick, reluctantly, with the Conservatives. 3. The SNP will do less well in Scotland than everyone thinks. The main dividing line in Scotland, far more than Brexit, seems to be independence. Pro-Union voters will vote en masse for the candidates likely to keep out the SNP. Ironically, the SNP might be better off downplaying indeyref2; 4. Labour's BAME vote will remain solid. That is likely to make Labour more and more a BAME focused party. That is starting to coming through in the selection of candidates (Poplar, West Midlands). For Labour, it has the advantage of solidifying their vote in urban areas with large ethnic (or, more accurately, Pakistani / Bangladeshi communities) but raises questions about the impact on the WWC base and also communities such as those of Indian heritage and, possibly, Black Christian background
Thanks for the analysis. I agree with most of it, especially Scotland. Tories to hold 10 seats.
Comments
Team Boris is going to hit Corbyn with everything they have got, think what Cummings did to Cameron in 2016 and multiply it. They will start next week and within 10 days as the polls do not improve for Labour, the trots are going to be in disarray and fighting, which is when Corbyn will start losing his temper.
If you knew that already please accept my apologies, but it was a teaching moment and I thought other readers may appreciate the lesson."
Yes, I did know that already - I was teasing isam.
But seriously I`m reluctant to trade out of bets on the thinking that you are paying the bookie`s turn twice. Betfair heavily promotes its cashout facility as it is very lucrative.
I`m happy to be educated otherwise on this point.
Also the name Andrew Yang will always be remembered with fondness by me.
(Out of interest, I remember a similar vox pop in 2017 from Mansfield - Labour to Tory. Being a North Notts lad, I could never believe Mansfield would go Tory in my lifetime....shows what I know.)
NEW THREAD
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50219036
Chancellor Sajid Javid has refused to recalculate Treasury assessments on the impact of the government's Brexit deal, saying it is "self-evidently in our economic interest"....
There are far more places I’d sooner go to first.
If you think that Corbyn in any way offers any change on past ways of doing things, with respect it is you who have not paid close enough attention to his record.
Of course, that might still be true of enough Labour voters to win him the election.
Many years ago I wrote a blogpost discussing what Obama’s accession to office would mean. I concluded that nothing meaningful would change. I stand by that assessment. He had one fairly minor win over healthcare which has caused almost as many problems as it solved. For the rest, systemic inertia basically did for him.
And Obama was more intelligent, more energetic, more pragmatic and much more of an outsider than Jeremy Corbyn. Corbyn will not change the system except to tilt it more towards his mates. He is a poor man’s Donald Trump.
The equity in three figure prices that shorten to, say 33/1 or something isn't really that great. But nice to be on
Even if it wasn’t traded very occasionally such bets do come in and then they are very profitable.
It’s the same way venture capitalists (if they’re doing it right) invest in 10 possible successful start-ups.
They just need one to come in to make a lot of money, but they don’t necessarily know which. So, they do their research and analysis and invest according to their best assessment of the value and the prospects and expect nine to be losers.
Is it because two of your heroes were behind the disasters in education, whereas you dislike the people in charge of medicine? Or do you have some special loathing for teachers rather than say, doctors?
Dear Brexiteer
We have a big challenge on our hands to clear out the Remainer Parliament and win a majority for Brexit. Our hard-working team need all the help they can get. We have plans for campaigns across the mainstream and social media, along with billboards, leaflets, newspapers — and TV broadcasts like the recent one that was seen by millions.
We have all waited far too long for the Brexit we were promised. Let’s not settle for anything less now. Please give what you can to help us to fight the Brexit General Election and change politics for good.
Thank you for your continuing support. There will be no real Brexit without us. And we cannot do it without you.
Yours
Nigel
I think about that decision a lot.
Who one day got locked in his garage
He campaigned so hard
But let down his guard
And fell to an electoral barrage