politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The General Election – identifying the top bell weather seats

System · October 2019

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The General Election – identifying the top bell weather seats

Thanks to AndyJS for once again creating a very interesting and useful spreadsheet. He mentioned this on the previous the previous thread and I thought it deserved to be highlighted even more.

Read the full story here

Peter_the_Punter · October 2019

So all we have to do is watch you, Mike, and see which way you're swinging?

Funny, but I never had you marked down as a swinger but you can't always judge a book by the cover.

Atb

PtP (possibly first again.....)

The_Taxman · October 2019

Second

GarethoftheVale2 · October 2019

I looked at calculating Cook PV scores for various seats a while back and Bedford has consistently been 4-6 points more Labour than the nation. So Con need to be 7 points ahead of Lab nationally to guarantee a win there.

HYUFD · October 2019

Interesting to see Epping Forest in the top 15

HYUFD · October 2019

https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1189163938874834950?s=20

FrancisUrquhart · October 2019

So what happens if Labour get their gerrymandering amendments through? The government (and Lib Dems) are saying it is impossible to make the required changes in time for December dates.

AlastairMeeks · October 2019

@AndyJS is a superstar of the site.

Do I win the race to be first pedant, and point out that a bellwether is a sheep not a climatic condition?

OblitusSumMe · October 2019

Fabulous work AndyJS!

Bedford it is. Shall we have a PB competition on the result in Bedford?

Philip_Thompson · October 2019

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1189163938874834950?s=20

Heading East or West?

Peter_the_Punter · October 2019

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1189163938874834950?s=20
Heading East or West?

To Moscow, I expect, to pick up his instructions.

Pulpstar · October 2019

KLOBMENTUM - She is up to 3c on Predictit

GIN1138 · October 2019

PLP don't sound very happy do they?

Pulpstar · October 2019

OblitusSumMe said:
Fabulous work AndyJS!

Bedford it is. Shall we have a PB competition on the result in Bedford?

I'll back the blues there

kle4 · October 2019

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:
I'm not at all sure that the Conservatives have thought through the optics. An election in which they're campaigning screeching about Singapore-on-Thames, invading Spain and capital punishment for benefit claimants is going to sit ill with the usual festive idea of tidings of goodwill to all men.
Boris will be offering tax cuts and spending for hospitals and the police and schools and above all to get Brexit done.

Boris will be Santa to May's Cruella Da Vil
Plus Boris will be Santa to Corbyn's Grinch.

Boris is the embodiment of can-do, up-beat Britain-is-Great optimism. Corbyn? Not so much....

Corbyn sells a vision that its terrible now but he can it great again. Not in those words, but it's the same message.

MarqueeMark said:

The_Taxman said:

MarqueeMark said:

The_Taxman said:

MarqueeMark said:

contrarian said:
Ben Bradshaw, like Sheerman, extremely unhappy with election. Extremely.
Wonder if he will stand again?
Both are standing again. Barry sheerman has been in the local paper on the frontpage on a frequent basis with a lot of non stories of late. As a vetran politician he knows the value of getting on the front page near an election for any reason. No such thing as bad publicity...
Only I was reliably informed that Bradshaw was intent on making 2015 his last term. Had to have his arm twisted a bit in 2017.

There's some huge housing developments going on all around Exeter. Assuming they are within the constituency boundaries, then the Tories must have long term hopes of making it close once his large personal vote isn't there.
I can understand that Tory strategy. I think Bradshaw was on a news channel saying he would be fighting an election yesterday. I cannot remember which channel as i watched at least 3 yesterday evening!
Thanks. He would be a big loss for Labour in the SW if he doesn't stand. Their Plymouth seats looks a tricky hold.

When the May landslide looked plausible I think there were only 1-2 seats in all the SW that looked winnable for labour (outside Bristol at least). I seem to recall people saying he had to be persuaded to stay on last time.

FrancisUrquhart · October 2019

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1189163100081184768?s=20

Pulpstar · October 2019

FrancisUrquhart said:
So what happens if Labour get their gerrymandering amendments through? The government (and Lib Dems) are saying it is impossible to make the required changes in time for December dates.

What are the amendments ?

The only one I can see getting through is a change of date to 9th.

kle4 · October 2019

Tories did ok in Swindon in May, a traditionally competitive area.

FrancisUrquhart · October 2019

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So what happens if Labour get their gerrymandering amendments through? The government (and Lib Dems) are saying it is impossible to make the required changes in time for December dates.
What are the amendments ?

The only one I can see getting through is a change of date to 9th.

According to the BBC, they are talking about votes for 16/17 year old and EU citizens.

IanB2 · October 2019

Seats that swing close to the national average are *nothing* seats, where neither the MP nor the aspiring alternatives have any local profile or local achievements to their name, where there are no local issues that override the national political environment, and where the campaigns of the parties make no differential impact. I am unconvinced such seats are much of a guide to the coming contest, not least because the emerging leave/remain division of electors adds an entirely new dimension to our political geography.

GIN1138 · October 2019

FrancisUrquhart said:
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1189163100081184768?s=20

Gosh if Labour block the election now...

Pulpstar · October 2019

Con + DUP + LD defeats EU citizens I think ?

Philip_Thompson · October 2019

FrancisUrquhart said:
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1189163100081184768?s=20

The cowards are still trying to find a way out? Would look even more absurd now!

FrancisUrquhart · October 2019

Pulpstar said:
Con + DUP + LD defeats EU citizens I think ?

Why would the LDs be against EU citizens getting the vote? I think they are against kids voting, but surely they think having EU citizens getting the opportunity to nullify the referendum is in their interests.

If either passes, the government are saying it is impossible to organize by 12th December. Adding EU citizens is another 3 million voters.

IanB2 · October 2019

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1189163938874834950?s=20
Heading East or West?

He should have gone by sea. Slower, for sure, but I am sure he would have been able to afford a Cunard internet package.

RobD · October 2019

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pulpstar said:
Con + DUP + LD defeats EU citizens I think ?
Why would the LDs be against EU citizens getting the vote? I think they are against kids voting, but surely they think having EU citizens getting the opportunity to nullify the referendum is in their interests.

If either passes, the government are saying it is impossible to organize by 12th December. Adding EU citizens is another 3 million voters.

Have they been ruled in order yet?

Pulpstar · October 2019

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pulpstar said:
Con + DUP + LD defeats EU citizens I think ?
Why would the LDs be against EU citizens getting the vote? I think they are against kids voting, but surely they think having EU citizens getting the opportunity to nullify the referendum is in their interests.

If either passes, the government are saying it is impossible to organize by 12th December. Adding EU citizens is another 3 million voters.

2nd para - it's effectively a wrecking amendment at this point.

JohnLilburne · October 2019

IanB2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1189163938874834950?s=20
Heading East or West?

He should have gone by sea. Slower, for sure, but I am sure he would have been able to afford a Cunard internet package.

Or flown Norwegian. They have WiFi.

Pulpstar · October 2019

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pulpstar said:
Con + DUP + LD defeats EU citizens I think ?
Why would the LDs be against EU citizens getting the vote? I think they are against kids voting, but surely they think having EU citizens getting the opportunity to nullify the referendum is in their interests.

If either passes, the government are saying it is impossible to organize by 12th December. Adding EU citizens is another 3 million voters.
Have they been ruled in order yet?

Who decides that - Bercow or one of his deputies ?

rpjs · October 2019

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1189163938874834950?s=20

Can’t he afford the in-flight wi-fi maybe?

Richard_Nabavi · October 2019

Unconfirmed, but very entertaining if true:

https://twitter.com/BarrySheerman/status/1189146672640811008

RobD · October 2019

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pulpstar said:
Con + DUP + LD defeats EU citizens I think ?
Why would the LDs be against EU citizens getting the vote? I think they are against kids voting, but surely they think having EU citizens getting the opportunity to nullify the referendum is in their interests.

If either passes, the government are saying it is impossible to organize by 12th December. Adding EU citizens is another 3 million voters.
Have they been ruled in order yet?
Who decides that - Bercow or one of his deputies ?

Hoyle, I think. Thankfully.

AndyJS · October 2019

FrancisUrquhart said:
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1189163100081184768?s=20

Even though Corbyn has already launched the Labour campaign?!

RobD · October 2019

Richard_Nabavi said:
Unconfirmed, but very entertaining if true:

https://twitter.com/BarrySheerman/status/1189146672640811008

Resigning over going to the people?

Anorak · October 2019

JohnLilburne said:

IanB2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1189163938874834950?s=20
Heading East or West?

He should have gone by sea. Slower, for sure, but I am sure he would have been able to afford a Cunard internet package.
Or flown Norwegian. They have WiFi.

Morris Dancer's cannon is surely the only option for Mr Farage.

FrancisUrquhart · October 2019

AndyJS said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1189163100081184768?s=20
Even though Corbyn has already launched the Labour campaign?!

Hey if they reselect an antisemite candidates after deselected in the space of a few months, they can do the same hokey cokey over GE.

Pulpstar · October 2019

https://twitter.com/IanLaveryMP/status/1189164195562045446 Well he's up for it

GIN1138 · October 2019

Richard_Nabavi said:
Unconfirmed, but very entertaining if true:

https://twitter.com/BarrySheerman/status/1189146672640811008

Wonder whether Bazza will be in a very heightened emotional state again this afternoon?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpsh9APpxls

Anorak · October 2019

I wonder if this what Italians feel like about their political class?

Richard_Nabavi · October 2019

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:
Unconfirmed, but very entertaining if true:

https://twitter.com/BarrySheerman/status/1189146672640811008
Resigning over going to the people?

Yes, it would be hilarious. I fear though that Barry Sheerman is getting carried away, and we'll be denied this particular treat.

Polruan · October 2019

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pulpstar said:
Con + DUP + LD defeats EU citizens I think ?
Why would the LDs be against EU citizens getting the vote? I think they are against kids voting, but surely they think having EU citizens getting the opportunity to nullify the referendum is in their interests.

If either passes, the government are saying it is impossible to organize by 12th December. Adding EU citizens is another 3 million voters.
Have they been ruled in order yet?
Who decides that - Bercow or one of his deputies ?

Hoyle is chairing. Not sure how decisions work in practice - whether speaker advises in conjunction with clerks, or whether deputy speaker has sole discretion in those cases.

Pulpstar · October 2019

Richard_Nabavi said:
Unconfirmed, but very entertaining if true:

https://twitter.com/BarrySheerman/status/1189146672640811008

Imagine this lot trying to run the country !

TheJezziah · October 2019

Yay!

Let's do this!

Andrew · October 2019

Jezza seems to have lost what last remnants of control he had over the party machine.

FrancisUrquhart · October 2019

Oh god...

Frenchman Jerome Garces to referee England's Rugby World Cup final against South Africa despite his controversial role in Wales' semi-final exit... with Nigel Owens out injured

The Macron of rugby refs.

IanB2 · October 2019

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Nabavi said:
Unconfirmed, but very entertaining if true:

https://twitter.com/BarrySheerman/status/1189146672640811008
Imagine this lot trying to run the country !

I know. It would be no better than the current lot trying to do the same.

BannedInParis · October 2019

Richard_Nabavi said:
Unconfirmed, but very entertaining if true:

https://twitter.com/BarrySheerman/status/1189146672640811008

PLEASE LET THIS HAPPEN

Philip_Thompson · October 2019

Richard_Nabavi said:

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:
Unconfirmed, but very entertaining if true:

https://twitter.com/BarrySheerman/status/1189146672640811008
Resigning over going to the people?
Yes, it would be hilarious. I fear though that Barry Sheerman is getting carried away, and we'll be denied this particular treat.

Surely once the leadership has made the decision to go into a General Election any MP who votes against that and to keep the Tories in office is at serious risk of losing the whip and not being a candidate at the election?

williamglenn · October 2019

Looks like these are the Brexit Party's demands.

https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1189171951002148865

IanB2 · October 2019

Anorak said:
I wonder if this what Italians feel like about their political class?

The last time they swept away their political class they landed with years of Berlusconi. And thereafter various coalitions of nutty extremists. Hardly encouraging.

The_Taxman · October 2019

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Nabavi said:
Unconfirmed, but very entertaining if true:

https://twitter.com/BarrySheerman/status/1189146672640811008
Imagine this lot trying to run the country !

lol - Look at the mess BJ and the Tories have made....

Pulpstar · October 2019

Does EU Citizens have any sort of "natural" majority in parliament ?

Chris · October 2019

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pulpstar said:
Con + DUP + LD defeats EU citizens I think ?
Why would the LDs be against EU citizens getting the vote? I think they are against kids voting, but surely they think having EU citizens getting the opportunity to nullify the referendum is in their interests.

If either passes, the government are saying it is impossible to organize by 12th December. Adding EU citizens is another 3 million voters.

Are the LDs not very much in favour (in principle) of 16-year-olds voting?

Though everything is subordinate to the overriding principle of electing more Lib Dem MPs.

TheWhiteRabbit · October 2019

Richard_Nabavi said:
Unconfirmed, but very entertaining if true:

https://twitter.com/BarrySheerman/status/1189146672640811008

Corbyn is right, once you support an election you have to "Bring It On"

Pulpstar · October 2019

williamglenn said:
Looks like these are the Brexit Party's demands.

https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1189171951002148865

I expect in reality the "pact" will be old fashioned soft pedalling in seats like Blyth Valley by the Tories.

CarlottaVance · October 2019

https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/1189172100592001024?s=20

RobD · October 2019

Pulpstar said:
Does EU Citizens have any sort of "natural" majority in parliament ?

It’s such an obvious gerrymander, much worse than the proposal for 16-17 year olds.

rottenborough · October 2019

Pulpstar said:
https://twitter.com/IanLaveryMP/status/1189164195562045446 Well he's up for it

I presume he is in a rock solid safe seat.

The_Taxman · October 2019

GIN1138 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:
Unconfirmed, but very entertaining if true:

https://twitter.com/BarrySheerman/status/1189146672640811008
Wonder whether Bazza will be in a very heightened emotional state again this afternoon?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpsh9APpxls

I might well vote for him over his opposition to Brexit. I voted Tory in 2017, so he has gained a vote if i do.

AlastairMeeks · October 2019

https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1189161943682170880

Pulpstar · October 2019

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/1189172100592001024?s=20

Lol - Sounds like the Jeremy Hunt campaign. Scared of Corbyn isn't a good look.

rottenborough · October 2019

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/1189172100592001024?s=20

Johnson has taken a huge gamble. Especially given the volatile nature of electorate.

In theory, Corbyn should be shellacked.

But...

CarlottaVance · October 2019

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1189172446253015040?s=20

TOPPING · October 2019

Richard_Nabavi said:

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:
Unconfirmed, but very entertaining if true:

https://twitter.com/BarrySheerman/status/1189146672640811008
Resigning over going to the people?
Yes, it would be hilarious. I fear though that Barry Sheerman is getting carried away, and we'll be denied this particular treat.

If they do vote against it, however, then surely Jezza has to go after his media appearances.

Chris · October 2019

williamglenn said:
Looks like these are the Brexit Party's demands.

https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1189171951002148865

Honours (Prevention of Abuses) Act 1925:
Punishment of abuses in connection with the grant of honours.
(1)If any person accepts or obtains or agrees to accept or attempts to obtain from any person, for himself or for any other person, or for any purpose, any gift, money or valuable consideration as an inducement or reward for procuring or assisting or endeavouring to procure the grant of a dignity or title of honour to any person, or otherwise in connection with such a grant, he shall be guilty of a misdemeanour.
(2)If any person gives, or agrees or proposes to give, or offers to any person any gift, money or valuable consideration as an inducement or reward for procuring or assisting or endeavouring to procure the grant of a dignity or title of honour to any person, or otherwise in connection with such a grant, he shall be guilty of a misdemeanour
(3)Any person guilty of a misdemeanour under this Act shall be liable on conviction on indictment to imprisonment for a term not exceeding two years or to a fine not exceeding five hundred pounds, or to both such imprisonment and such fine, or on summary conviction to imprisonment for a term not exceeding three months or to a fine not exceeding fifty pounds, or to both such imprisonment and such fine, and where the person convicted (whether on indictment or summarily) received any such gift, money, or consideration as aforesaid which is capable of forfeiture, he shall in addition to any other punishment be liable to forfeit the same to His Majesty.
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/Geo5/15-16/72/section/1

CarlottaVance · October 2019

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1189173685002878977?s=20

Pulpstar · October 2019

AlastairMeeks said:
https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1189161943682170880

Lord Adonis doubtless thinks his opinion is more important than the rest of the country combined..

williamglenn · October 2019

Not a parody.

https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1189167720899764224

kinabalu · October 2019

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1189163938874834950?s=20

Trump wants a back rub?

Casino_Royale · October 2019

rottenborough said:

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/1189172100592001024?s=20
Johnson has taken a huge gamble. Especially given the volatile nature of electorate.

In theory, Corbyn should be shellacked.

But...

The smart move would be for Labour to reverse weaponise the NHS against Brexit. The inverse of the £350m bus.

That secret NHS drugs negotiation with the US Government that Channel 4 dispatches has started to unearth (if it is as advertised) looks potentially very damaging.

RobD · October 2019

Chris said:

williamglenn said:
Looks like these are the Brexit Party's demands.

https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1189171951002148865
Honours (Prevention of Abuses) Act 1925:
Punishment of abuses in connection with the grant of honours.
(1)If any person accepts or obtains or agrees to accept or attempts to obtain from any person, for himself or for any other person, or for any purpose, any gift, money or valuable consideration as an inducement or reward for procuring or assisting or endeavouring to procure the grant of a dignity or title of honour to any person, or otherwise in connection with such a grant, he shall be guilty of a misdemeanour.
(2)If any person gives, or agrees or proposes to give, or offers to any person any gift, money or valuable consideration as an inducement or reward for procuring or assisting or endeavouring to procure the grant of a dignity or title of honour to any person, or otherwise in connection with such a grant, he shall be guilty of a misdemeanour
(3)Any person guilty of a misdemeanour under this Act shall be liable on conviction on indictment to imprisonment for a term not exceeding two years or to a fine not exceeding five hundred pounds, or to both such imprisonment and such fine, or on summary conviction to imprisonment for a term not exceeding three months or to a fine not exceeding fifty pounds, or to both such imprisonment and such fine, and where the person convicted (whether on indictment or summarily) received any such gift, money, or consideration as aforesaid which is capable of forfeiture, he shall in addition to any other punishment be liable to forfeit the same to His Majesty.
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/Geo5/15-16/72/section/1

Sounds like you can’t give cash for honours. Doesn’t say anything about backroom deals.

CarlottaVance · October 2019

https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1189173921867800584?s=20

Brom · October 2019

Casino_Royale said:

rottenborough said:

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/1189172100592001024?s=20
Johnson has taken a huge gamble. Especially given the volatile nature of electorate.

In theory, Corbyn should be shellacked.

But...
The smart move would be for Labour to reverse weaponise the NHS against Brexit. The inverse of the £350m bus.

That secret NHS drugs negotiation with the US Government that Channel 4 dispatches has started to unearth (if it is as advertised) looks potentially very damaging.

Channel 4 will throw everything they can at the Tories but I'm not sure most of the electorate will be listening.

Danny565 · October 2019

https://twitter.com/PeteWishart/status/1189170057236099072

Pulpstar · October 2019

What parts of GE2019 drama will we have today, 2nd reading & programme motion ?

kinabalu · October 2019

Opening salvo -

https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1189167720899764224
Quite like the hashtag
#DitchJohnson

TheJezziah · October 2019

https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1189067242551463936

If Johnson is to be stopped the under 40's will be absolutely key.

Danny565 · October 2019

Pulpstar said:
What parts of GE2019 drama will we have today, 2nd reading & programme motion ?

I think, if the programme motion goes through, it's second and third readings in the Commons today?

rottenborough · October 2019

F*cking hell. Labour. Their leader, who wants to PM, has just been on TV not an hour ago saying he is rearing to go and this will be a manifesto for radical change etc etc.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1189174100884897793

crandles · October 2019

Boris says he has pulled WAB and unlikely to be time after today for NI budget bill and WAB. However could Boris pull some stunt like bringing a meaningful vote before parliament rises?

JackW · October 2019

Peter_the_Punter said:
So all we have to do is watch you, Mike, and see which way you're swinging?

Mike has always been a swinger and never less so than at a general election .....

rottenborough · October 2019

kinabalu said:
Opening salvo -

https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1189167720899764224
Quite like the hashtag
#DitchJohnson

Nobody has told Momentum that Labour are now trying to back out of it as fast as they can.

Reverse ferret.

IanB2 · October 2019

The fact that d**ks like Fabricant represent us in parliament is such an indictment of our current voting system.

rottenborough · October 2019

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1189173921867800584?s=20

Only it isn't is it? Because they are doing everything they can in HoC to scupper the plan.

Panic has set in.

IanB2 · October 2019

Danny565 said:

Pulpstar said:
What parts of GE2019 drama will we have today, 2nd reading & programme motion ?
I think, if the programme motion goes through, it's second and third readings in the Commons today?

As posted earlier

Pierrot · October 2019

numbertwelve said:

Pierrot said:
Jeremy Corbyn omits to centre on the most important line of all, not "We're going to deliver a message of hope", but "We're going to win".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4U5PCqQ_1Y
Oh bless him, he does look cheerful. It’s win win for him one feels. If he wins, he gets a short but interesting go at being PM. If he loses he is FREE.

If he loses badly he will resign the Labour leadership, but there could be a hung parliament in which the distribution of seats makes it hard for either him or the Tory leader to form a government - a GE result that leaves things the way an FTPA VONC might leave them but without the 14-day endstop. Just saying...for those who like uncertainty! An election in December followed by another one in January! LOL

RobD · October 2019

TheJezziah said:
https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1189067242551463936

If Johnson is to be stopped the under 40's will be absolutely key.

Don’t worry, it looks like Labour MPs want to keep the Tories in power.

Danny565 · October 2019

rottenborough said:

kinabalu said:
Opening salvo -

https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1189167720899764224
Quite like the hashtag
#DitchJohnson
Nobody has told Momentum that Labour are now trying to back out of it as fast as they can.

Reverse ferret.

LOL, what a surprise that you're overreacting again.

Defeating the programme motion would only mean the government comes back tomorrow with a different one, which MPs could amend more easily (to enfranchise more people / to gerrymander the electorate, depending on your viewpoint). The election is happening regardless of the route there.

edmundintokyo · October 2019

rottenborough said:
F*cking hell. Labour. Their leader, who wants to PM, has just been on TV not an hour ago saying he is rearing to go and this will be a manifesto for radical change etc etc.

That's the correct thing to do if the goal is to amend the motion to the point where the *government* pulls it, then play the KFC card back at them.

CarlottaVance · October 2019

https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1189175660335505409?s=20

PeterMannion · October 2019

Bercow!
Please don't go
We love you so
And we want you to know
...
Please don't go (Bercow)

Nigelb · October 2019

williamglenn said:
Not a parody.

https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1189167720899764224

Not an intentional parody, you mean.

OblitusSumMe · October 2019

Danny565 said:
https://twitter.com/PeteWishart/status/1189170057236099072

If SNP and Lib Dems join the Johnson Tories then how Labour votes has no consequence.

Polruan · October 2019

rottenborough said:
F*cking hell. Labour. Their leader, who wants to PM, has just been on TV not an hour ago saying he is rearing to go and this will be a manifesto for radical change etc etc.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1189174100884897793

Pretty standard politics (including almost every aspect of Johnson’s behaviour over the last 3 months) isn’t it? Say how much you want to do x, find a way of avoiding x happening, find someone to blame for stopping you from doing x which would have been popular and which you so desperately wanted to do.... and repeat.

IanB2 · October 2019

Wee Smog about to move the Business Motion paving the way for the early GE. Amendment is selected.

Polruan · October 2019

RobD said:

TheJezziah said:
https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1189067242551463936

If Johnson is to be stopped the under 40's will be absolutely key.
Don’t worry, it looks like Labour MPs want to keep the Tories in power.

‘In office.’

Pulpstar · October 2019

IanB2 said:
Wee Smog about to move the Business Motion paving the way for the early GE. Amendment is selected.

Which amendment ?

kle4 · October 2019

Andrew said:
Jezza seems to have lost what last remnants of control he had over the party machine.

And they'll still make him PM. Or try.

Hilarious if after trying 4 or 5 times to get a GE Boris lost though.

OblitusSumMe · October 2019

IanB2 said:
The fact that d**ks like Fabricant represent us in parliament is such an indictment of our current voting system.

You'd think so, but then you have a great voting system like STV used in Ireland and the voters only go and use it to elect people like the Healy-Rae dynasty and the Fine Gael and Fianna Fail duopoly hangs on.

Nigelb · October 2019

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pulpstar said:
Con + DUP + LD defeats EU citizens I think ?
Why would the LDs be against EU citizens getting the vote? I think they are against kids voting, but surely they think having EU citizens getting the opportunity to nullify the referendum is in their interests...

They are not, but they want a December election, and realise that it's not compatible with that.

IanB2 · October 2019

Pulpstar said:

IanB2 said:
Wee Smog about to move the Business Motion paving the way for the early GE. Amendment is selected.
Which amendment ?

The Creasy amendment (allowing further amendments)

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